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For the first time UKIP takes the lead in a poll for the May Euro elections

March 15th, 2014

This should shake up the betting markets

Note that ComRes applied a different certainty to vote filter compared with normal Westminster polling. Only those certain to vote are included and my guess is that this is a major factor that has put UKIP at the top.

As I write I haven’t seen the detail but my guess is that demographic groups likely to support UKIP are those who are most likely to turnout.

Note. The change figures on the above chart now relate to the ComRes EP Jan 2013 poll.

On Westminster voting LAB lead narrows with ComRes but stays same with Opinium