Today’s Populus 1pc LAB lead poll had a sharp increase in Tory certainty to vote figures and a decline in LAB ones

March 14th, 2014

A reaction to Ed Miliband’s “No EU Referendum”?

Today’s Populus online poll sees the LAB lead down to just 1%. The raw number show LAb still with a big lead but the weighted ones, after the demographic and certainty calculations, the Tory deficit comes right down.

Now as I keep on saying it is wise not to equate correlation with causation. But the big thing that’s happened has been EdM’s EU referendum announcement, which was dominating the headlines at the start of the fieldwork period.

Thanks to the new Populus monthly aggregate data we have a good data point to compare with the details of today’s poll which is what I’ve done in the chart above.

This is something we need to monitor.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble