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My 50-1 shot for the WH2016 Republican nomination has an overwhelming victory in the CPAC straw poll

March 10th, 2014

Each March in the US there’s the Conservative Political Action Conference attended by many leading GOP figures and at which there is a straw poll on who the delegates favour as party nominee for next time. Last year it was won by Kentucky senator, Rand Paul. This year he did it again by an increased margin.

Paul, of course, is the son of Ron Paul who was a leading contender in the 2012 race for the nomination.

Back in November 2012 shortly after Barack Obama’s re-election I tipped and bet on Rand Paul AT 50/1 for the nomination.

Those backing Paul believe that his strong his libertarian message particularly on things like civil liberties could resonate with young people and minorities – key voter segments where the party has had problems in the past.

Back in November 2012 I wrote:

“A big thing that Rand Paul’s likely to have going for him is his father’s extraordinarily enthusiastic and well organised supporter base that at one stage during the summer threatened to make life very difficult for the Romney camp.

In many states ostensibly won by Romney Paul supporters managed to get themselves elected as convention delegates and could have been in a powerful position. It was only when Ron himself intervened to call his troops off that Romney looked secure.

Rand Paul will be very strong in the states that have party caucuses rather than primaries and he’s likely to have a well-honed fund-raising machine.

Does he stand a chance? I don’t know but as we get closer the betting price is likely to get a lot tighter and it’s nice to be sitting on a 50/1 bet.”

Long-standing PBers will recall that I got on Barack Obama at 50/1 in May 2005. It would be very satisfying to do that again.

The latest best bookie price on Rand Paul is 9/1.

Mike Smithson

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