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From data already public from latest ComRes phone poll it looks as though the LAB will get a boost

March 4th, 2014
  • This looks like CON 29/LAB 37/LD 10/UKIP 11

    Frustratingly the Indy is releasing its monthly ComRes phone poll in parts and we don’t have the voting intention numbers yet. Given the cost of carrying out phone polls this is understandable but we’d all love to see the actual numbers.

    What we do have is part of the data which I’ve snipped and highlighted above and this shows the latest poll is good for LAB. Last time this appeared in late January the Tories were just one point behind. By my back of an envelope calculations it’s going to be a lot more – maybe seven or eight points.

    We can also see from the figures above that UKIP are going to be down on the 14% of last time.

    So the three pollsters to have reported so far in March are painting quite different pictures.

    Last month’s ComRes phone poll now looks like an outlier.

    Happy poll watching.

    Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble