LAB now clear betting favourite to secure most votes in May Euros Last year UKIP were odds-on pic.twitter.com/yV4aLhn43w
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2014
The Wythenshawe outcome seems to be depressing expectations
One thing that I’ve missed in recent weeks has been the growing sentiment on the betting markets that Labour will win most votes and that the task facing UKIP is going to be harder than many predicted.
At the start of the year Ladbokes made the purples a 55% chance to win most votes. That’s now moved to 42%. Labour, meanwhile, were a 34% chance in December and have now hardened up to a 48% one.
Looking at the historic prices from a range of bookies it seems that the Wythenshawe by election, where the purples were saying very bullish things, was the turning point. Their 18% vote was good but nowhere near the expectations that were being set at the start of the campaign.
We’ve also seen much greater scrutiny by the media of the party and its leadership. It’s not going to be as easy as in 20014 and 2009.
My main bet is 10/1 on the Tories which I still think is a possiblity.