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The Floods: Is this going to start impacting on Voting Intentions?

February 16th, 2014

 

We’ve seen some polling over the weekend on David Cameron and the Government’s handling/response to the floods.

Opinium for the Observer found

ComRes found

YouGov for The Sunday Times found, 

Overall,  this does not make for pleasant reading for David Cameron or the Government, although the figures have improved with YouGov since last week for David Cameron, they still remain dire.

Whilst there has been no discernible change in voting intention so far, but the longer the floods carry on, and the polling on the handling of the floods remains like this, it could have an impact on voting intentions, as this becomes a wider competence issue for the government, which as has been noted in the past.

Key driver analysis of British Election Study data tells us that things like party identification, perceptions of the leaders and perceived competence are the things that drive votes… not policies on individual issues.

The other impact of the floods could be this, on Wednesday, the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney said

“What tends to happen with natural disasters is that you get a hit to GDP (gross domestic product) as it’s going on and then you get a recovery; you get that back later on with the repair, so when you look over the stance for the horizon that the Bank would operate, one looks through it”

Over the last year to eighteen months, the general trend has been economic optimism has been rising, and Labour’s lead has been falling. Whilst correlation doesn’t equal causation, a hit to GDP could lead to economic optimism falling and perhaps Labour’s lead widening, which could mean a double hit to the Government.

Time will tell if there will be an impact on voting intention.

TSE