Time for the red team to push the panic button? LAB share down 4 and lead just 1pc in latest ComRes phone poll for the Indy

January 27th, 2014

And YouGov has lead down to 2%

The monthly ComRes/Indy survey is one of just three monthly national polls remaining which use the telephone and its publication, usually at the end of the month, is always an occasion.

The latest party shares with changes on December are in the chart above and as can be seen the big move has been LAB down 4 while UKIP has gone up by the same amount. The result is that Miliband’s party now hold a lead of just 1% over the Tories something that’s likely to cause the leadership concern.

From a quick scan of all the polls the 33% LAB share appears to be the lowest for the party from any firm for three and a half years

    With any sharp movement like this we have to recognise that it could be an outlier. Last year three different pollsters at various times reported that LAB and CON were level-pegging only for the situation to revert to “normal” in following surveys.

Outlier or not perhaps the one consolation for the red team is that it is UKIP and not the Tories which is the gainer. The two parties of government remain at the same level as last month.

Even though on these numbers they would have fewer than one third of the votes cast and lead by one the Electoral Calculus seat predictor gives LAB 327 seats – an overall majority of 4.

At time of writing this post I had not seen the detailed data but it does appear that UKIP is now starting to hurt LAB quite seriously. It appears as though Farage’s party is picking up sizeable chunks of the white working class vote.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble