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Most current polling movement is between CON and UKIP with LAB and LD relatively stable

January 27th, 2014

Check out the interactive chart

Each week, as we know, YouGov carries out four polls for the Sun and one for its News International stable-mate, the Sunday Times. The result is a mass of polling data that sometimes it is hard to see the big picture.

This is the reaon why over the past few weeks I have been producing a weekly average of the party shares YouGov daily polls in order that this might be a good way of plotting trends.

The results for the first three weeks of data for 2014 are compared with the final week before polling stopped ahead of the Christmas 2013 break.

As can be seen the most consistent feature has been the LAB share which has not moved out of the range of 38%-39%. Next for consistency have been the LDs moving within a range of 9%-9.6%. The latest figure is the lowest but we it is hard to see a Rennard affect yet.

The parties seeing the biggest changes have been CON and UKIP. Generally in weeks when UKIP have been up CON has been down and vice versa.

In GE2015 terms what’s most important is the LAB share. For the Tories to have any chance of becoming top party that number has to come down.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble