Local By-Election Preview: January 16th 2014

January 16th, 2014

Broadheath on Trafford (Con Defence)
Result of last election to council (2012): Con 34, Lab 25, Lib Dem 4 (Conservative overall majority of 5)
Result of ward in last electoral cycle:
2010: Con 2,569 (42%), Lab 1,799 (29%), Lib Dem 1,519 (25%), Green 247 (4%)
2011: Con 1,879 (43%), Lab 1,757 (40%), Lib Dem 307 (7%), UKIP 205 (5%), Green 202 (5%)
2012: Lab 1,662 (46%), Con 1,397 (39%), UKIP 221 (6%), Green 156 (4%), Lib Dem 152 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: Helen Boyle (Lab), Ron George (UKIP), Brenda Houraghan (Con), Will Jones (Lib Dem), Joe Ryan (Green)

Trafford has always been a bellwether authority to demonstrate the strength of the Conservatives and Labour over the years. The council (which was Conservative in the early nineties) saw a gradual slide towards Labour and in 1995, the nadir for the Conservatives, they lost control of the council and Labour gained control the following year as was used by Tony Blair as a demonstration that Labour could win anywhere. Labour’s success in the council lasted until the 2003 local elections when they lost control with the Conservatives gaining control so that by 2006 they had a majority of 15 on the council which was reduced to five at the last elections held in 2012. Therefore there is every change that Labour must fancy their chances in this ward (given it’s recent history) and with the added influence of UKIP, could the Conservatives have their worst start to a year in local by-elections by losing three from three?