The first Populus poll of 2014 sees LAB lead up 5 percent

January 10th, 2014

Overall LAB has had pretty steady start to 2014

This morning we’ve got the first Populus online survey of the year which has LAB back on 40% with CON down 2% to 33%. All just about within the margin of error.

This follows the first week of YouGov daily polls which has had the Tories solidly on 32% with LAB ranging from 37% to 40%. The LDs have been on 9/10% while UKIP has been in the 12-14% range.

All of these surveys have been online and I’m hoping we’ll get the first phone polls next week.

So overall no real sign of any softening in the LAB position or improvement in the CON one. Things very much as they were.

Both YouGov and Populus weight by party ID which I believe compresses the UKIP position and helps the main parties with the Tories getting the best of it.

Thus in today’s Populus survey 196 people said they identified with UKIP – their views were scaled down to just 20.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble 2004-2014