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The Ashcroft poll finds that the LDs have lost nearly three quarters of the public sector workers who voted for them in 2010

January 7th, 2014

One of the great things about having a large overall sample, as Lord Ashcroft generally does, is that the sub-samples are based on numbers that give more confidence in the findings. This is why Lord Ashcroft polls in this way.

Thus in the latest poll the total of public sector workers was 1.167 which is greater than the samples for many of the national surveys that we see.

This has been a big area of change as the chart above shows with the Lib Dems losing nearly three quarters of their 2010 vote. The big gainers have been UKIP and Labour.

This reinforces the point I was making last week about public sector workers being a major part of the cohort of LD>LAB switchers.

It is not unusual for the public sector vote changes to be very different from the country as a whole. The following chart shows the division at GE2010 between constituencies with a high level of public sector workers amongst the electorate and those with a lower level.

Back at GE2005,when there was little real threat of Labour being thrown out there was less than 1% difference in the LAB performance in the two categories of seat.

Online dialogue between EU bloggers and Vice-President Reding 4pm on YouTube

I am the UK representative and I guess that my views won’t satisfy everybody! Tough.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7qKlqDsKa8#eudeb8.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble 2004-2014