Punters on the Betfair exchange now giving the Tories a 23.8% chance of an overall majority. See trend chart pic.twitter.com/MJoqFqQf7r
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2013
The Betfair 23.8% chance is a ludicrous over-assessment
The latest trade in Betfair’s GE2015 outcome market has a CON majority rated as 23.8% chance.
There must be a lot of blue supporters out there betting with their hearts not their heads – always a good opportunity for smart political punters.
Let’s get this straight. The last time that the Tories had a poll lead was the 3% one from ICM in March 2012. That same poll had UKIP on a mere 1%.
To secure a majority then the party is going to need a margin of 7-8% over Labour AND be able to win a clutch of the fights where the LDs are incumbents.
They need to be doing far far better than they have been to even get them into the frame.
The harsh reality of the 2010 LD>LAB switchers remains and the polling suggests that this move has been much more marked in the LAB-CON battlegrounds.
All this is without taking into account the UKIP surge which has totally changed the landscape.
A CON majority is at the most a 20/1 shot. I’m thinking of going the other way and laying the possiblity on Betfair.