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Ipsos Mori poll on Scotland

December 10th, 2013

Ipsos-Mori have published their Scottish Public Opinion Monitor.

 


 

The fieldwork for this poll was entirely after the publication of the White Paper, and for those wondering if the White Paper had any effect on the electorate, Ipsos-Mori notes

The White Paper itself appears to have had a marginal effect on voters’ views. Around one in five (18%) told us it would make them more inclined to vote ‘Yes’ while 20% said they were more likely to vote ‘No’ while half (51%) said that it would make no difference. However, it is noticeable that among a key constituency, those who may change their minds between now and September next year,22% said that the White Paper made them more inclined to vote ‘Yes’ compared to 13% who are more inclined to vote ‘No’.

On the much commented upon Gender gap.

  • The gender gap, whereby women are less likely to support independence than men, remains in place but it has narrowed. In September, 54% of men opposed independence compared to 64% of women but these figures now sit at 52% and 61% respectively.
  • On the other side, 41% of men support independence, up one percent, while 27% of women plan to vote Yes, an increase of three per cent.

For those betting on the turnout of the referendum, Ipsos-Mori finds

The poll hints at a high turnout in the referendum. Eight-in-ten voters (79%) say that they would be ‘absolutely certain’ to vote in an immediate referendum (up by six percentage points from September), including increased likelihood to vote among both sexes and all age groups.

The various turnout betting markets are available here.

Overall both sides will be happy with this polling, the No side still retain a substantial lead,and that lead is larger than it was at the start of 2012. Yes will be happy to have have made inroads into that lead since the last poll, the gender gap is narrowing slightly, and those voters who may change their minds, breaking towards yes.

With around nine months to go, and the Independence campaign proper yet to begin, there’s still grounds for optimism for Yes.

The betting markets on the outcome of the Independence Referendum are available here.

TSE

Overnight the YouGov Poll for the Sun was published.