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First full post Autumn poll from Populus online has LAB lead +4 – a different picture from YouGov

December 9th, 2013

Top phone pollster, ICM, due out tonight

Yesterday I highlighted the Sunday Times YouGov poll – the first full voting intention survey since Osborn’s Autumn Statement on Thursday. That had the CON lead down to 5%.

Today we’ve got the first Populus online poll and that, as the chart shows, has things moving in the opposite direction.

Tonight I’m hoping for the first phone poll – ICM for the Guardian and later in the week we should have Ipsos-MORI.

There’s a lot I like about Populus but I think their UKIP share is artificially low. The unweighted UKIP share is nearly 15% and in the same vicinity as other online firms.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004