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The drip feed of the marginals polling could lead to more of the CON intake of 2010 deciding to call it a day

December 4th, 2013

How many will follow the Laura Sandys route?

We’ll have to wait until the early hours of May 8th 2015 before we can start to say for sure whether the Ashcroft marginals polling or the Alan Bown funded Survation polls are in anyway accurate but they could have a more immediate impact – on the decisions of many in the Conservative “class of 2010“ on whether to continue in politics.

For a consequence of the marginals and single constituency polling will be to undermine Conservative morale especially on those MPs who gained seats last time. They can do the calculations and will be applying the swings being recorded to their own situations.

    For the big conclusion from the Ashcroft and Survation polling is that the Tories appear to be doing disproportionately worse in what will be the key battlegrounds at GE2015

Many of those who became Conservative MPs for the first time had been selected in 2008/2009 which were much happier times for the party. Then one of the most active betting markets was whether Cameron would get a three figure majority. In July 2008 William Hills priced this possibility at 6/4.

Most of the bright ones, particularly Dave’s A-listers, must have thought that once the little matter of GE2010 was got out of the way it wouldn’t be too long before they were on the ministerial ladder. Many of them had switched from successful careers to be Tory MPs

We’ve already seen Louise Mensch and Laura Sandys make their own choices. Others could follow.

I’m expecting one of the bookies to be putting up a market on how many will decide to call it a day.

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004