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Tessa Jowell becomes the opening favourite in new market on the LAB candidate to contest the 2016 London Mayoral election

November 25th, 2013

Has she got what it takes to win the massive primary?

After the general election the biggest UK election from a betting perspective has traditionally been the battle to win the London Mayoralty. There have been four elections since the post was created in 2000 and each has attracted a lot of betting interest.

This is massive with a potential electorate of 6m. So far two of the elections have resulted in two CON wins (Boris 2008/2012), one a LAB win (Ken 2004), and on independent win (Ken 2000)

Because it is in the capital and is in many ways about people more than parties, there’s alwas been a lot of money wagered.

    This will only be increased by Labour’s decision to select their candidate in London in a primary by-passing, as it turns out, the trade union vote.

Quite how this will work we don’t know but party insiders reckon that voting will be restricted to party members and others on the electoral role who will have to state that they are supporters.

The voting is likely to be a bit like a US caucus with meetings being held across the capital in every borough and possibly in every London constituency. This, of itself, will add to the gambling and I’d suggest, help Tessa Jowell who last week announced that she was stepping down as an MP at GE2015.

I can see the day of the party caucuses being a huge one on PB and the markets.

This morning Ladbrokes opened betting on the LAB selection and made Tessa the 7/2 favourite with Sadiq Khan, Labour’s shadow minister for London, 4/1.

Mike Smithson

Ladbrokes

Mike Smithson

Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004