GE2015 projections based on swing-back to the incumbent government are irrelevant: The incumbent government isn’t standingOctober 22nd, 2013
Final week campaign poster – May 2010
All parties will be campaigning for change
In recent weeks there have been a number of GE2015 projections all based on one common idea – that incumbents governments recover in the final period leading up to polling day.
Certainly that happened in 1992, 1997, 2001 and 2010, but we didn’t see that effect in 2005.
Looking forward to May 2015 one big ingredient is missing – there is no incumbent government to be swung back to.
Instead all the parties will be campaigning on a change platform. The Tories will be trying to make the case to stay in government without being constrained by a coalition. The LDs will seek to highlight the areas of policy where they say they made a difference and how they would operate in the fiture
General Elections are almost always a clash between two big competing propositions – “it’s time for change” versus “don’t take the risk of doing something differently“. This time only the former is applicable.
There’s another factor as well – the fixed term parliament act. Knowing the election data has had an extraordinary impact on our politics. All parties have been able to plan on the basis of a long game.