LAB YouGov/Sun daily poll lead back up to 5%. It was 1% yesterday LAB+1, 39% CON-3, 34% UKIP+1,11% LD-1, 9%.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2013
After yesterday’s YouGov daily poll which saw the Tories at their highest level since the March 2012 budget things are back to “normal” this morning. Looking at the detailed data today’s poll shows a more balanced sample with less need to scale up those demographic segments which varied from the target.
Generally outliers are more likely to happen when the sample is unbalanced and different groupings have to be moved up to bring them to the target. The problem is often with the youngest age group, those in the 18-24 segment which is what happened yesterday.
The party that seems to see the most variation is CON while LAB, as my chart today shows has quite small movements from day to day.
Hopefully today we should see the October Ipsos-MORI political monitor – the regular survey that has been going for nearly 40 years.