— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 9, 2013
If they are only 17 short the Two Eds will try to go it alone
Unlike all previous general elections over the past 20 years there are no spread betting prices which give a really good pointer to current betting sentiment.
The great and brilliant Spreadfair spread market closed its doors just five years ago leaving a massive void. Here the number of commons seats that the parties were predicted to get at the coming general election were traded like stocks and shares. The great joy was that if you predicted correctly how the market would more you could cash in your position and take your profits years before the event actually happened.
Because it was a betting exchange the bookie was not determining the prices – rather it was what other punters were prepared to risk that mattered
Looking back Spreadfair’s closure was a disaster for those who like to predict and bet on politics. Nothing as good has replaced it.
For whatever reason the other spread companies have been reluctant to operate GE2015 seat markets and the only pointers on commons seat totals that we have are the Ladbrokes and PaddyPower line betting markets.
The latest Ladbrokes numbers are above and as can be seen the threshold for LAB seats is 307.5 – just above the 307 that the Tories chalked up in 2010.
If it does does come to that I don’t think that LAB would go for coalition. People like Ed Balls would fight against and I don’t think they would be ready to deal with the LDs or others.
They would try to go it alone in the expectation that the Lib Dems would support in a confidence vote.
My best and largest GE2015 bet is 12/1 that that no party will win majority but there will be no coalition.