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Month: July 2013

The constituencies where the LDs will be most vulnerable at GE2015 and those where they are likely to do best

The constituencies where the LDs will be most vulnerable at GE2015 and those where they are likely to do best

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The incumbency experience for the yellows at GE2010 There’s been some discussion over the weekend about the impact of incumbency and how it can help the parties achieve better outcomes in terms of seats won than the uniform swing might suggest. In a post on Saturday I looked at the GE2010 experience of the Tories and Labour. Today’s it’s the turn of the Lib Dems and the chart above shows how it performed on average in different types of seats…

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The big July polling news: The decline of UKIP and the launch of the twice weekly Populus online survey

The big July polling news: The decline of UKIP and the launch of the twice weekly Populus online survey

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All the firms have UKIP in the same direction The easing off of UKIP support is one of the factors that has helped the Tories in recent weeks. We should get a sense on Thursday of whether this movement in the polls is reflected in UKIP’s performance in real elections. Two of the County Council divisions won by the purples on May 2nd are up. The ever so stable new polling series from Populus There should be another Populus online…

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How the first time incumbency bonus can impact on the uniform national swing seat projections

How the first time incumbency bonus can impact on the uniform national swing seat projections

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The 1st time incumbency bonus that could make the Tory GE2015 challenge a bit easier. See what happened at GE2010 pic.twitter.com/q1MoHawG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 27, 2013 Labour incumbents also did better at GE2010 How LAB incumbent MPs did better than their parties at GE2010 pic.twitter.com/y0I2Kw0W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 27, 2013 The Tories will have many more first time incumbents The charts above are based on data from a post-2010 paper by Prof John Curtice, Dr Stephen Fisher and…

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Now is the time to tackle party funding reform

Now is the time to tackle party funding reform

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It’s not healthy for parties to be reliant on a few large supporters July 2013 may well come to be seen as the turning point in this parliament.  The economy looks to have decisively turned the corner.  We only hear talk of triple-dip recessions in the context of no longer talking about triple-dip recessions.  Employment is rising, unemployment is falling, growth is accelerating and confidence is returning.  One would expect that to feed through to the key battleground of the…

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Punters rate a CON majority a bit higher than a week ago

Punters rate a CON majority a bit higher than a week ago

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CON majority chances edge up a notch on Betfair. Was 20% last wk – now 23.3%. See table pic.twitter.com/IC5Vv8vQZZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 26, 2013 What will the weekend polling bring? @OpiniumResearch say there are some "interesting movements" in their poll for Observer tomorrow: Last time it was C27/L38/LD6/Ukp19 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 26, 2013

Nick Clegg’s ratings move from the negative to the positive with LD members

Nick Clegg’s ratings move from the negative to the positive with LD members

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55% of LD members polled want Clegg to lead the party into GE2015 while 38% want him to stand down before then. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 26, 2013 58% of LD members polled by LD voice say they're satisfied with Clegg’s leadership a net +18. A year ago the same poll had a minus 2 rating — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 26, 2013 Maybe this just reflects declining membership Every year in the run-up to conference season the LD Voice…

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How long will it take for the Lib Dems to recover?

How long will it take for the Lib Dems to recover?

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Henry G Manson on the junior coalition partner This summer Nick Clegg said he wants his party to become a “fully-fledged party of government”. Despite that his party faces wipeout in 2014 and 2015 on top of the electoral hammer blows it’s received since it formed a Coalition with the Conservatives. More than half of the people who voted for the Liberal Democrats in 2010 have deserted them. The party has fewer than 3,000 councillors for the first time in…

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Local By-Election Preview: July 25th 2013

Local By-Election Preview: July 25th 2013

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Braintree East on Braintree (Lab Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Con 47, Lab 9, Greens 2, Ind 2 (Conservative overall majority of 34) Ward Result: (Emboldened denotes elected) Elwyn Bishop Lab 762 41.9% David Messer C 759 41.7% Collette Gibson Lab 756 Eric Lynch Lab 710 Luke Harrington C 691 Rikki Williams C 668 Wendy Partridge Grn 297 16.3% “The Only Way is Essex” could be a by word for how to win a general election. At the 1997 general…

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