If the next round of key state polling has Obama behind then Mitt could be favourite

With the incumbent continue to make heavy weather in the polls following his disappointing performance in the first presidential debate the election of November 6th is looking nothing like the certainty it appeared less than a fortnight ago.

All the recent national polls have had Romney ahead or a tie. The only consolation for the Obama camp is that until now, at least, he looks set to surmount the 270 electoral college vote threshold assuming that the battle-ground state polling stays as it is.

The signs are, though, that this could change. This was a Tweet overnight from the Democratic party aligned Public Policy polling which helpfully sends out interim reports while surveys are taking place.

Ohio looks pretty darn close on the first night of our poll there. We’ll do more calls tomorrow and have results in the evening

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) October 13, 2012

If this firm and other pollsters start reporting that Romney is ahead in the battle-grounds then it’s possible to envisage that Romney could become the betting favourite.

A lot for Obama is now hanging on the second Presidential Debate on Tuesday.

What we do know is that very tight races are the biggest driver of political betting activity and it seems likely that 2012 will exceed by quite a margin all previous White House races in terms of volume.

Already Betfair has traded £7m on its next president market alone and other firms have seen lots of activity.

This might be the time to open accounts with the online bookies. One good site has a full range of free bet offers from firms offer big incentive to sign up for accounts.

Mike Smithson

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