Archive for October, 2012

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The deluge of swing-state polling continues:- 21 of them tonight including 4 from Ohio

Wednesday, October 31st, 2012

Obama’s position in Ohio seems to be being maintained

PoliticalWire has 21 swing state polls including a batch fron Ohio.

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (We Ask America)

Colorado: Romney 46%, Obama 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (University of Cincinnati)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 47% (Gravis)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49% (We Ask America)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

Iowa: Romney 45%, Obama 44% (University of Iowa)

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (We Ask America)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Detroit News)

North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)

Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Franklin and Marshall)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)

Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 44% (Roanoke)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 43% (Marquette Law)

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK




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The big EU vote – which way will it go? Even the professional pundits can’t agree

Wednesday, October 31st, 2012

Mike Smithson

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YouGov finds that CON voters in Britain divide 6 to 1 in support Barack Obama

Wednesday, October 31st, 2012

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK




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If the YouGov polling is right the Tories are flying in the face of public opinion and their own voters on wind farms

Wednesday, October 31st, 2012

Several papers, including the Mail, are making their big story this morning comments by the energy minister, John Hays on wind-farms.. The Telegraph reports:-

    “,,,Hayes said that we can “no longer have wind turbines imposed on communities” and added that it “seems extraordinary” they have allowed to spread so much throughout the country.

    The energy minister said he had ordered a new analysis of the case for onshore wind power which would form the basis of future government policy, rather than “a bourgeois Left article of faith based on some academic perspective”.

Only nine days ago YouGov published its latest polling on attitudes to energy policy including wind farms and the numbers seem strongly in favour of support.

The precise question was “Thinking about the country’s future energy provision, do you think the government should be looking to use more or less of the following?…Wind farms”

Overall by 55%-21% voters said they approved and want more electricity generated in this way. What’s more pertinent is that Tory opposition doesn’t seem to have filtered through to party supporters. Those saying that they’ll vote Tory at the next election were in favour of more by 49%-28%.

Even though this has been an issue for some time there doesn’t seem to have been much movement against wind-farms in the past year. In November 2011 the figures were 56% for more and 19% against.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK




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How the White House hopefuls are doing in the Sandy aftermath. Intrade has punters moving to Obama.

Tuesday, October 30th, 2012

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CONFIRMED: The LDs are backing a LAB move to kill off the boundary changes until 2018 at the earliest

Tuesday, October 30th, 2012

This has the backing of Nick Clegg?

Thanks to Paul Waugh at PoliticsHome for this but a Labour move in the Lords to put the boundary review back to 2018 is being supported by the ex-Chief Executive of the Lib Dems, Lord (Chris) Rennard.

Waugh wondered whether Rennard was acting along on this. I’ve just had it confirmed that this does have the backing of the party.

There has been an issue with the review process at the moment. This is still going on and costing public money even though Nick Clegg has said that he and the other 56 LD MPs would be voting against when the final plan is published October 2013.

Now, according to Waugh, a LAB peer, Lord Hart, has tabled an amendment to the Electoral Registration Bill to put back Boundary Commissions reviews until 2018 – six years on. One of those putting their names to the move is Chris Rennard.

If passed by the upper house this would have to come to the commons where there would be a vote. Effectively the LAB amendment in the Lords is bringing the vote forward which will at least create clarity.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK




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No GDP boost yet for the Tories. LAB has double digit leads in all the latest polls

Tuesday, October 30th, 2012

Just a third now blame Labour for the cuts

Maybe it’s all too early but in the wake of last week’s news that Britain was out of recession and that the GDP was on the up again there were many who thought that the Tories would get a poll bost.

Maybe that will happen but from three surveys from three totally separate pollsters using very different methodologies the signs are that Labour is enjoying a substantial lead.

The latest phone survey from ComRes had an 11% lead; YouGov (online) this morning had 10% while TNS-BMRB (part face to face) had 11%.

YouGov had a more worrying finding for the coalition. When asked who was to blame for the cuts just 34% said the last LAB government which equals the lowest it has ever been. 29% blamed the coalition which equals the highest level.

At one stage the proportion saying the LAB government was to blame was nearly half and just 17% blamed the coalition.

    I’m a strong believer that the notion “It’s the economy stupid” is wrong. The real driver is whether a government is perceived to be competent.

Next week, on US election day, we will be exactly half way through this parliament – there is still a long time to go.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK




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Just one week to go and an estimated 60m Americans are being affected by Hurricane Sandy

Tuesday, October 30th, 2012

A very dangerous few days for Obama and Romney

The worst thing that could happen to either of them is that they do something that can be portrayed as them trying to exploit the crisis for political purposes.

Yet perceptions of how they approach what’s happened could be critical in determining this election which before the hurricane hit was on a knife-edge.

One immediate impact is that there will be fewer daily tracking polls. Several firms have suspended them so it’s going to be harder to spot any trends.

The betting has hardly moved although a lot of money continues to be wagered.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK