Archive for July, 2012

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Surge in public positivity as Olympics get under way

Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

A new ComRes for ITV News at Ten tonight shows that there has been a surge in positivity surrounding the Olympic Games compared with just a fortnight ago.

Now more than half of the population (52%) are excited about London 2012, compared to a third (34%) who were excited two weeks ago. Younger people aged 18 to 34 are the most excited age group (57%) while those in Scotland (42%) and the South West (42%) are the least excited of all the regions.
There has been a noticeable rise in positivity about London 2012. Now, 59% of the public say that the Olympics are great for the UK in such difficult economic times, up from 39% two weeks ago. Three in five (60%) believe that hosting the London 2012 Olympics will improve Britain’s reputation abroad, while just one in five (20%) disagree.

A fortnight ago, 65% of the population said they planned to watch at least some of the Olympics on TV. Now the Games are under way, that figure has increased to three quarters (75%) of British people.

More than three quarters (77%) of those who took the survey after 9pm say they watched the London 2012 Olympics Opening Ceremony, with just 20% who disagree and 3% who are not sure. Out of all respondents who say that they watched it, an overwhelming majority (83%) say that they were impressed by it. Just one in ten (12%) said that they were not impressed by it.

Finally, a majority of 78% are proud of the British sports men and women who are competing in the London 2012 Olympics. Just one in ten (9%) disagree.

ComRes interviewed 2,010 GB adults online from 27th to 29th July 2012.  1,265 respondents took the survey after 9pm on Friday. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults

 

UPDATE: New COMRES phone poll out.

Conservatives 33 (nc)

Labour 44 (+2)

Lib Dems 10 (-3)

Others 13 (+1)

 

Changes are from their last phone poll.

TSE



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Will this be a vote winner for the Lib Dems?

Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

The Independent is reporting that

A government-wide spending review is to be scaled back because Nick Clegg is refusing to commit to billions of pounds of further cuts in the welfare budget…whilst  the Liberal Democrats are likely to fight the election on a pledge to clear the remaining deficit through tax rises such as a mansion tax on homes worth more than £2m and a cut in the 40 per cent tax relief on pension contributions enjoyed by higher rate taxpayers.

Additionally for Nick Clegg, Activists are threatening to table an emergency motion at the party’s autumn conference in an attempt to prevent the leadership supporting a new round of cuts, which they fear would be deeply unpopular.

The Times are saying

Evan Harris, the former Lib Dem MP and a figurehead of the grassroots, said that no further pacts should be made with the Conservatives over spending.

The Independent, then notes, this could also lead to an opportunity for the Tories

Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne may outline proposed cuts at the 2015 election to show how the Tories would “finish the job” of clearing the deficit and put Labour under pressure to spell out how quickly it would balance the nation’s books. The move would also be designed to reassure financial markets that the Tories were still prepared to take “tough decisions” on spending.

TSE

 



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Will Osborne still be Chancellor at the General Election?

Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

On Friday evening Standard and Poor reaffirmed  that the UK will continue to enjoy an AAA credit rating.

This has been interpreted as a boost for George Osborne, after recent bad news of the 0.7% GDP contraction, that reinforced the fact we’re currently in a double-dip recession, and after heavy criticism of his general performance.

As the Spectator notes

Those three As and the low cost of borrowing are the trump cards he produces not just at key events like the Budget, but at every Treasury question time, and in response to every urgent question.

Both Ladbrokes and William Hill have markets on Osborne still  being Chancellor at the next election, S&P’s decision, increased the likelihood of Osborne being Chancellor at the time of the next General Election.

TSE



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Olympics poll has public backing growing almost by the hour

Monday, July 30th, 2012

Public scepticism about whether the London Olympics represent value for money for British taxpayers has receded now the Games have begun, according to a ComRes poll for The Independent.

Some 50% believe the Olympics will be worth the £9.3bn being spent while 42% disagree.

Opinion has turned round since ComRes last tested this idea in March, when only 40% of people thought the Games would be worth it and 51% disagreed.

    The latest poll suggests that the opening ceremony gave a real boost with backing increasing almost by the hour.

    Only 43% of those questioned on Friday before the ceremony began thought it was would be worth the money, but the proportion rose to 53% after 9pm. By Sunday support had risen to 57%

There is usually a voting intention question in the Indy ComRes poll but I have not got that data at the moment.

  • Next couple of days on PB TSE will be in charge. I’m visiting a close family member who is very poorly.
  • Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB



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    Should Dave and George worry about the ConHome survey?

    Monday, July 30th, 2012

    It is important to state that ConHome’s regular surveys cannot be described as proper polls although, increasingly, they get picked up by the media as a barometer of opinion of the party’s grass-roots.

      And it’s the fact that national newspapers like the Times and Independent take them seriously that makes them important.

      Today’s numbers, particularly the “view” of the general election outcome and which politician the “grass-roots” would like as head of the party will create some waves.

    But there is little doubt from proper polling that both Dave and George are not getting the same levels of support from Tory voters as they were at the start of the year. The July Ipsos-MORI Monitor has Cameron in his worst since October 2007 just before Gordon Brown’s U-turn on holding an early general election.

    Osborne’s numbers have been in decline across a range of pollsters and amongst Tory voters since March.

    But it’s hard to see this having an short-term political impact. Cameron is leader and PM and he wants to stay and while that remains the he’s in charge. There is no obvious threat to his position.

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB



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    What are the chances of Boris making an early return as an MP?

    Monday, July 30th, 2012

    What are the chances of a Boris return to the Commons before or at the next general election?
      
     

    Could it be before or at the next general election?

    There’s been a huge amount written around the world in the past few days about the Tory Mayor of London, Boris Johnson. His riposte to Mitt Romney last week before 60,000 people in Hyde Park has only added to his reputation and to speculation that this is the guy who should be the next leader of the Tory party.

    In the betting his position as favourite has become clearer with punters moving away from the chancellor George Osborne.

    But as we’ve discussed many times here before – Boris has to be an MP to qualify to stand for the leadership and his second term as London mayor expires in May 2016 a year after the planned date for the general election.

      But could Boris make a return before then? Would he try to be selected at Tory candidate if a by-election came up? in the next two and a half years in a suitable seat?

      Even if that doesn’t happen could he stand at the next election?

    Sure there’d be a fuss with Labour and others picking over comments he made in the run-up to last May’s London election. But Boris could deal with that.

    My guess is that there must be a reasonable chance that he could return and sit as an MP during the final part of his term as mayor.

    What do you think? What are the chances of a Boris return before or at the next general election?

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB



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    Coalition “managing economy” ratings slump to record low

    Sunday, July 29th, 2012


    YouGov data: PB chart

    And another YouGov boost for Vince Cable

    Preferred Chancellor Total(change)
    Vince Cable 28% (+6)
    William Hague 15% (-1)
    Ken Clarke 9%(-)
    Phillip Hammond 2% (-1)
    Theresa May 2%(-)
    Nick Clegg 2%(-)
    Don’t know 43% (-4)

    The change figures shows the shifts in the past week to the question “which of the following do you think would make the best replacement Chancellor of the Exchequer?”

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB



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    Does Burley represent the Tory future or the Tory past?

    Sunday, July 29th, 2012

    Can the blues win elections following his robustness?

    One thing’s for sure – the name of Aidan Burley, the Oxford educated New Zealand-born MP for Cannock Chase will NOT be appearing on the list of newly promoted ministers in Cameron’s planed re-shuffle.

    He was widely condemned for the Tweets on Friday night especially as this followed his widely reported attendance at a Nazi-themed stage do last year.

      But could his robust views on multiculturalism resonate with voters – particularly in the key marginals that the Tories need to pick up to win a majority?

      Or will they alienate the centre ground voters that David Cameron, certainly in the early part of his leadership, was trying to attract?

    My view is that the latter statement is more correct. We have moved on as a society.

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB