|Latest AV referendum polls||Date||YES %||NO %||Methodology note|
|Angus Reid/||03/03/11||55||45||Repercentaged by pollster. Actual wording on the ballot, online, polling restricted to members of its polling panel. No turnout weighting. Politically weighted via past vote and newspaper type.|
|YouGov/No2AV||02/03/11||43||57||Repercentaged by PB. Bespoke wording, online, polling restricted to members of its polling panel. No turnout weighting. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type.|
|Ipsos-MORI Reuters||20/02/11||55||45||Repercentaged by MORI. Actual wording on the ballot, phone poll, only those “certain to vote” included.|
|ICM/Guardian||20/02/11||51||49||Repercentaged by ICM. Actual wording on the ballot, phone poll, past voted weighted. Figures show split after turnout weighting|
Conflicting pictures from two new referendum polls
Two new polls on the May 5th AV referendum show very different pictures of voters’ view of the question. YouGov, who are working for the NO2AV campaign, reported last night that NO was 12% ahead – Angus Reid, meanwhile, has YES 10% ahead.
In order to allow proper comparison between the polls PB will in future show the splits from each firm based solely on the view of decided voters. All the firms bar YouGov are providing this data.
So of polls in the past fortnight three have YES ahead with only YouGov showing a NO lead. This, I believe is down to the question that YouGov is using. All the other firms are using the same words that are on the ballot.
Given that YouGov has just got the Welsh referendum within two points using a simplified question heaven knows why they are continuing to use their current form (see below).
Is it being uncharitable to suggest that the client. the NO2AV campaign, prefers it this way?
The Angus Reid survey also had new voting intention figures showing an increase in the Labour lead.
|Poll||Date||CON %||LAB %||LD %||OTH|
|Angus Reid/Sunday Express||28/02/11||32||43||11||14|