Punters pile on Mili-D after YouGov?
July 30th, 2010
But could the race still produce a surprise?
It was inevitable that the first opinion surveys restricted to those who can actually vote in Labour’s election was going to spark off a fair amount of activity on the betting markets.
The big move has been to the elder Miliband where the best bookie price is now 1/2. His brother Ed has moved out to 7/4 while Balls/Burnham/Abbott are now seen an rank outsiders with almost no chance whatsoever. On Betfair the picture is even worse for the non-Miliband three.
We now move into the holiday month of August with the ballot papers going out on September 1st. The one element that could muck up the YouGov picture of a DaveM victory is the trade union section because the ballots will be accompanied by recommendations from each of the affiliated unions on which way members should vote. With Ed having the backing of the big three then that could possibly close the gap.
Th other thing YouGov did was to blunt the scale of benefit Mili-E would get from 2/3/4th preferences. How these will break is probably going to be less significant than some EM backers were hoping.
| Candidate | Best bookie price | Betfair Back – Lay |
|---|---|---|
| David Miliband | 1/2 | 1.5 – 1.51 |
| Ed Miliband | 7/4 | 3.3 – 3.4 |
| Ed Balls | 40/1 | 75 – 120 |
| Andy Burnham | 50/1 | 75 – 100 |
| Diane Abbott | 100/1 | 160 – 230 |
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
hope he wins
Cheers to Richard N for the tip.
I’m banana man.
I’m banana man.
Every body knows
that I can
be banana man,
because I’m banana man
Sung to “The Pyjama Game”.
What a wally! How any party can vote this mealy mouth millipede for leader is beyond me.
Yet Mike Smithson has the hots for him.
FPT - The Ghost of Harry Flashman - “Was it not Labour that commissioned [the Calman Report]? If so its probably good for bog roll and not much else.”
Dearie, dearie, dearie me.
Is that really representative of the level of knowledge you Tories have regarding Scottish politics? Hopeless. Utterly, utterly hopeless.
For your information, the Calman Commission, although the brainchild of Wendy Alexander, was a joint venture by ALL THREE Unionist parties. Annabel Goldie was a big fan.
Stuart Dickson @4
I don’t know much about the politics of Cornwall, Wolverhampton or Ceredigion. Is that a failing as well?
4. Ah I thought it was a strategy report on the ferries to the islands.
http://www.calmac.co.uk/
Doesn’t seem to be making the national news either way - perhaps its not really that important after all.
A betting question.
Apparently Paddy Power have lots of novelty bets available regarding the Boris bikes, in particular
http://affiliate.paddypower.com/blog/2010/07/30/bike-hire-scheme-to-attract-thieves-and-celebs/
But I can’t find them on their website. Can anyone help?
wibbler @7
You might have to phone them. Didn’t see anything under novelty or politics.
Mike, if I remember correctly, you pointed out in an analysis of the Deputy election that the three different sections were each won by a different person on the first round of voting [MPs by Johnson; Members by Harman; Trade Unions by Cruddas].
If YouGov is correct and David Milliband wins all three sections on the first round then he does look unassailable… but then YouGov had Johnson winning the MPs and Trade Union sections last time and tying with Benn for party members.
I would have thought Ed Milliband would beat his brother amongst the Trade Unions and that surely means there is everything to play for and it comes down to the transfers.
One very simple question: how do we know that YouGov have a representative sample of Labour party members etc?
FPT. I’m not exactly a fan of Andrew Adonis, but I’m a bit puzzled by Mike’s characterisation of what he said on last night’s programme, as it seems to bear absolutely no resemblance to what I saw. Adonis actually said that the Liberal Democrats made a legitimate choice, but that they should be honest about the fact that it was a free choice, rather than casting around for bogus reasons for why they “had” to go with the Tories - especially that hoary old favourite, “The Numbers”.
antifrank @10
A very good question. I think punters might be treating this poll with insufficient caution. My reading of it is that DM is probably ahead, but it seems to be quite close.
3.
Then there is the Hotlegs tune:
I’m a Banana Man man
You’re a Banana Man girl
Let’s make Banana Man Lur..hu…hurve
In this Banana Man world.
James Kelly @11:
Hmm. Numbers aren’t bogus, James.
7.
You will notice that with regard to Boris’ bikes the wearing of plastic helmets is not compulsory.
Ohhhh!
It
All
Makes
Work
… for the CSA to do!
WS Is it compulsory to wear a plastic crash helmet when on a bycycle..I thought it was just for show..
14. “Hmm. Numbers aren’t bogus, James.”
Then let’s stop distorting them, shall we? They do indeed speak for themselves - a non-Tory government was perfectly viable, if the will had been there.
11
James, the problem with Adonis is that he falsely put forward two issues as being mutually exclusive. The Lib Dems did HAVe TO go with the Conservatives because the LabourTory animals were divided among themselves and hadn’t ac clue what their programme would be let alone what they might negociate with the Lib Dems - and none of them were brave enough to tell Gordo that he had to stop faffing around and go. Give Gordo his due, he was ahead of the rest of the Cabinet (including the dwarves of the leadership(sic) campaign in realising that he had to go finally. Purnell should be the next Labour leader. Not because he isn’t a nasty Tory shiite. But he did at least see the writing on the wall.
7 - The 5/4 “over 40″ is very tasty. With 6000 to choose from, all left temptingly on the street all day every day, I wouldn’t be surprised if the answer is over 400.
17 ..JK..But obviously not desirable..politics hey..
On a detailed but important point - is Mike right when he says The one element that could muck up the YouGov picture of a DaveM victory is the trade union section because the ballots will be accompanied by recommendations from each of the affiliated unions on which way members should vote. ?
I was under the impression that the union recommendations don’t accompany the ballots and are only indirectly significant, but I might be completely wrong on that. Anyone know the exact position?
James Kelly @17
Dream on!
If Ashcroft gets pi**ed off with the Tories, here comes the man who’ll bankroll ‘em next time.
http://tinyurl.com/3xb2mu6
Fresh from Northern Cyrpus its yer one and only!
20. Well, certainly not desirable to the right-wing Clegg/Laws tendency, which is why they appear to have moved heaven and earth to sabotage the talks with Labour. Along, admittedly, with Labour dinosaurs like Tom Harris, David Blunkett and John Reid.
24 JK..There was’nt really any other way.
24 JK..There was’nt really any other way.
[10] - I would have thought that the evidence was that we knew that they didn’t. There is YouGov’s performance from the deputy contest:
http://www6.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/06/25/what-are-the-betting-lessons-of-yesterday/
It looks as though the betting lessons of that contest are being forgotten:
(i) By the time of the vote this YouGov poll will be old; older even than the YouGov poll for the deputy contest.
(ii) The YouGov poll for the deputy contest was pretty ropey; this is not a criticism of YouGov, what they are trying to do is quite difficult. However, the errors are of a large magnitude.
YouGov put Johnson ahead of Harman 24-17 in the Member’s section [the result was reversed]; now it is 38-32 in David Miliband’s favour. Not convincing.
Johnson also had a huge lead amongst MPs in the deputy contest, but it wasn’t enough. David Miliband’s lead among MPs looks smaller.
22. “Dream on!”
Hmmm. I’m guessing, Richard, your brevity there is due to the difficulty of trying to convince us that 315 is not a larger number than 307.
antifrank @19
That’s exactly what I was thinking. Apparently Paris had over half the velibs stolen:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7881079.stm
17. Not sure how viable a govt who couldn’t share the pain of cuts in Scotland, Wales, Ulster and Brighton really was.
17. No it wasn’t, for the reasons I gave here:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/07/30/will-the-coalition-go-half-way-or-not/#comment-1688984
If an anti-Tory majority coalition had been viable, other parties would have been involved in the negotiations. They weren’t.
26. “JK..There was’nt really any other way.”
Of course there was. The Lib Dem leadership didn’t want there to be another way, but the fact remains that the Lib Dems plus Labour plus the remaining centre-left parties in the Commons adds up to a very clear majority.
[16] - Is it compulsory to wear a plastic crash helmet when on a bycycle..I thought it was just for show..
It’s not compulsory, but it is sensible. I met someone recently whose life was saved by wearing a bicycle helmet.
James Kelly @28
No, it is due to my difficulty in convincing myself that 315 represents a majority.
31. “If an anti-Tory majority coalition had been viable, other parties would have been involved in the negotiations. They weren’t.”
I beg pardon? The SNP, Plaid Cymru, Greens, etc weren’t there because they weren’t invited. That’s a rather different matter from saying that such an arrangement wouldn’t have been viable - or even that a formal arrangement would have been needed at all.
34. I live in Scotland, Richard. Tell me, does 47 represent a majority in a parliament of 129? If not, have I dreamed the fact that Alex Salmond has been First Minister for the last three years?
35 - I will salute your indefatiguability on the point, but it would have been a wibbly wobbly coalition, in which every caucus of 10 hitherto deservedly unknown MPs could hold it to ransom. It would have lasted about 6 months and the Conservatives would currently be polling somewhere around 55%.
[32] - James, if you want to blame anyone for derailing a non-Tory coalition, blame Labour MPs Blunkett and Reid who toured the news studios telling the world that they wouldn’t support it.
Given the tightness of the numbers, those two being set against the idea pretty much destroys a Lab + LD + SNP + Plaid + SDLP + Alliance coalition. And the pre-election pleas for special treatment from Plaid and the SNP were pretty shabby.
By contrast, Con + LD = 364 and Clegg and Cameron do not have to worry overmuch about grumbles from the likes of David Davis or Charles Kennedy.
A coalition between Labour and the Tories would have been numerically viable, and remained viable even if ten percent of each party refused to support it. Obviously it didn’t happen, and for the same reason that the Lib Lab etc. coalition didn’t.
[36] - Gordon Brown is no Alex Salmond.
Also, it rather proves the point in a way, because defeating the SNP in the Scottish Parliament would require the Labour party to unite in common cause with at least one other party.. that they have been unable to do so whilst in opposition in Scotland, rather indicates the scale of the challenge they would have face in Government in Westminster.
James Kelly @36
Minority governments can sometimes work, but the Scottish example gives no guide to this situation. What you are suggesting as viable would be a minority government, composed of two parties, against a solid block of 307 opponents plus sundry Irish, at a time of the biggest crisis in the public finances in living memory, when everyone knows there are hugely difficult decisions to be taken - far tougher than anything Alex Salmond has had to face.
Very, very luckily for the country, it wasn’t viable. If it had been, or indeed if the numbers had been such as to tempt the Conservatives into going it alone as a minority government, the warnings we had all been giving about the dangers of a hung parliament might well have been realised, as Gus O’Donnell seems to have emphasised.
38. Blunkett and Reid knew that Labour would be in hock to the Celtic loons from the high church of regional deficit denial and would end with Labour out of office for ever. Plus Brown as PM for another 2 years would finish the country.
True patriots Blunkers and Dr John - we thank you.
38. “James, if you want to blame anyone for derailing a non-Tory coalition, blame Labour MPs Blunkett and Reid who toured the news studios telling the world that they wouldn’t support it.”
Don’t worry, I do blame them as well - and don’t forget Tom Harris.
As for the Lib Dems not having to worry about internal dissent now they’ve gone with the Tories, I’d suggest the parliamentary arithmetic is the least of their problems. There does seem to be a view from PB Tories that Clegg would place continued cooperation with the Conservatives ahead of keeping his own party together - whatever I may think of him, I very much doubt if that’s true. He won’t want to go down in history as the Lib Dems’ David Owen.
@ 37 Antifrank, are you George Galloway?
44 - That’s an actionable suggestion. Whether for him or for me is an open question.
17 It was not a realistic option, given how little the parties had in common. Trying to keep together a coalition comprising Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, SDLP, and the Green Party, united only on the basis that they weren’t the Conservatives, would have been like herding cats.
41. Richard, a Lib/Lab coalition would in fact have been in a much stronger position than the SNP government, which on paper has no allies that have guaranteed it support in confidence and supply votes. In any case, Lab + Lib Dem + SDLP (Lab sister party) + Alliance (Lib Dem sister party) = 319 seats, just four short of an effective overall majority. The SNP, by contrast, are eighteen seats short in a much smaller parliament.
46. But the coalition wouldn’t have comprised all those parties. As Paddy Ashdown pointed out at the time, it wouldn’t have needed to.
48. Any coalition containg Labour would have been awful - just be thankful the good guys won.
49. “just be thankful the good guys won.”
In 2007, you mean? Indeed they did, and I am thankful.
2007. If they “won” in 2007 when is the referendum ??
James Kelly @47
You’re ignoring the make-up of the opposition. In Holyrood, it is divided. In Westminster, it would have been a solid block nearly as big as the rainbow coalition. You’re also ignoring the difference in the political challenges - Salmond is not (yet) faced with a massive crisis in the national budget.
51. If the Tories “won” in 2010 what is Norman Baker doing in the government?
Personally I don’t especially blame the LibDems for their decision in view of the difficult numbers - I agree with antifrank at 37 that the Conservatives would be hugely popular now if we’d cobbled together a majority in single figures and were now working on the deficit, and I really felt we needed a period in Opposition to recharge our batteries.
But a reasonable criticism is that they sold themselves too cheaply: they seem to have been happy to have a wish-list ticked off (AV, no IHT reduction, review of anti-terror laws, etc.) in return for giving Cameron and Osborne carte blanche on the economic and public service issues that are going to completely dominate the next few years - and locking themselves in for a full Parliament.
In 2015, if things are still rough, nobody’s going to vote LibDem because they blocked an IHT cut in 2010 and got a referendum on AV. And if they’re unexpectedly sunny, it’ll be the Tories that benefit.
Nick Palmer @54
Nick - do you know the answer to my question at 21?
52. “In Holyrood, it is divided. In Westminster, it would have been a solid block nearly as big as the rainbow coalition.”
That still doesn’t make sense. The SNP have 47 seats. A “rock-solid bloc” of Labour MSPs have 46 seats. As far as I can see a Lib/Lab coalition would still have been in an arithmetically stronger position than that.
53. They didn’t but the LDs did a Darth Vader at the end of Return of the Jedi - they came back from the dark side of the force.
Norman Baker is 3rd Ewok from the left.
42.
“Blunkett and Reid knew that Labour would be in hock to the Celtic loons”
Eh???
Reid is King of the Celtic loons!
58. Relatively speaking I was.
James Kelly - You seem convinced that Clegg preferred to do a deal with the Tories.
Let’s play a little game. Suppose that Labour and the Tories had both ended up on 282 seats, so that Clegg had a genuinely open choice who to do a deal with. Which way would he go?
I think that 8 times out of 10 he would have chosen to do a deal with Labour under those circumstances.
What do other people think?
54 - It’s that locking themselves in for a full Parliament which was the terrible mistake by the Lib Dems. There’s nothing that they’ve agreed that couldn’t have been wrapped up in two years. They could have got a break clause on 6 May 2012 and if necessary gone into constructive opposition if no further agreement could be reached. As it is, they’re lashed to the Tory mast.
60 - 9.5
60. A Brownless, D Miliband led Labour then maybe.
With Brown - no.
James Kelly is just upset that a Lab/LD grouping isn’t at the mercy of a few nationalist MPs. Its understandable, if I was a supporter of the SNP, PC, SDLP etc I would have been salivating at the prospect of concessions for every single Commons vote.
60 - Exactly.
54
9 down
Pakistan need 8 to avoid the follow on.
60. “Let’s play a little game. Suppose that Labour and the Tories had both ended up on 282 seats, so that Clegg had a genuinely open choice who to do a deal with. Which way would he go?”
Oh, I agree with you, but he wouldn’t have done it through personal preference. The Conservatives being the largest party played into his hands as regards his own preference for a centre-right coalition, and he exploited that situation ruthlessly. What else was he doing demanding immediate spending cuts as the price of a coalition deal with Labour, when that hadn’t even been in his own manifesto? A pretty obvious attempt to sabotage the talks.
And hasn’t Yellow Submarine told us before that what Clegg really wants to be is leader of the FDP? We all know what that means in terms of coalition preferences.
64. “James Kelly is just upset that a Lab/LD grouping isn’t at the mercy of a few nationalist MPs. Its understandable, if I was a supporter of the SNP, PC, SDLP etc I would have been salivating at the prospect of concessions for every single Commons vote.”
Nice try. James Kelly is indeed upset, but it’s over the Lib Dems handing David Cameron the keys to Downing Street, without even a referendum on genuine electoral reform to show for it.
60 – “What do other people think?”
In the lead up to the GE, Clegg was adamant an alliance could not be made with Labour whilst Gordon Brown was still in place. So;
With Brown as leader – probably not.
Without Brown, almost certainly yes.
67. Where would electoral reform score on issues that the voters care about ? 15th or 21st ?
@ 66
And hasn’t Yellow Submarine told us before that what Clegg really wants to be is leader of the FDP? We all know what that means in terms of coalition preferences.
Assuming you’re referring to the German FDP, it could be anything.
The FDP have gone into coalition with both the centre-Right CDU/CSU (like at present and in the Kohl years 82-98) and the centre-Left SPD (like in the Brandt-Schmidt years beforehand).
Indeed it was the FDP’s defection and a constructive vote of no confidence that allowed them to bring down the Schmidt government and bring Kohl in as Chancellor.
60.
8 times out of ten he would have chosen to do a deal with a SENSIBLE set of LabourTories. But such creatures are not on offer. Far better to deal with the Tory who knows he’s a Tory than the Tories who don’t know what day it is and haven;t got the courage to dump their dead wood.
69. That argument is the last refuge of scoundrels, used when you can’t argue against a principle position in any other way. Fox hunting - oh, it’s an irrelevance to the voters. Until the ban is actually passed, that is, and then repeal suddenly becomes a matter of supreme urgency.
James Kelly @56
No, because the SNP can if necessary play the other three main parties off against each other. They don’t face a solid block of opposition almost as big as themselves + all the others put together.
Neither do they have a £150bn deficit to sort out.
@ 70
Having brought up the FDP though, I personally think it’s that kind of party that this country is missing.
Carve away the right-populist Tories from the Conservatives, do the same for the leftist quasi-socialists in the LibDems and glue the remnants together - that would suit me fine: an economically and socially liberal party that has respect for Britain’s traditions and institutions. Perfick.
Only problem is Europe - again.
70. I presume Yellow Submarine was talking about the current incarnation of the FDP, which shows extreme reluctance to enter into pacts with the SPD even at state level these days. From what I can gather, they’ve moved from emphasising social liberalism (which made alliances with the SPD more plausible in days gone by) to being an out-and-out economic liberal party.
Mr. Smithson, could we have a thread on gay marriage please?
I have a sneaking suspicion this Coalition government may attempt to introduce it.
Those in favour?
Aye!
Chatter about an anti-Conservative coalition is just mindless.
Forget the fragility of such a rainbow coalition on such weak numbers.
It would have been profoundly unprincipled to have assisted the return of a Labour-led alliance given that the electorate had so convincingly given them the order of the boot.
29% of the vote and 90 seats down. Well behind the Conservatives in the largest constituent part of the nation, how does anyone imagine the voters would have reacted to Labour imposing measures in England that were immeasurably unpopular solely to keep the votes of various nationalists in the government lobbies?
It would have amounted to a coup d’etat and the voters would have reacted accordingly.
75. Touchet, quite. Pity to see the FDP take a hammering in the polls though. Down to 4% in some - not even enough to get into the bloody Bundesrat! Such a shame to see Merkel flounder like this! For a time she was my favourite head of government in the EU.
My money’s either on a return to the Große Koalition at the next Federal Election or a dismal leftist set up with Rot-Grün or, heavan forbid, Rot-Rot-Grün. The day Die Linke gets into government at the federal level in Germany is the day the European Right should panic.
78. Sorry - Bundestag!
77. Just a touch melodramatic, Geoff. A non-Tory coalition would have been made up of parties commanding the support of a clear majority of the UK electorate. A funny sort of coup d’etat, that.
@80:
As opposed to the current coalition, which also has the support of a clear majority, and you oppose?
You’re a hypocrite.
81. Martin, that’s utter drivel and you know it. There’s a rather huge difference between “opposing” a government and regarding it as constitutionally illegitimate, which is what Geoff was implying a Lib/Lab coalition would have been.
48 A Coalition comprising 315 MPs, would have had to eke out concessions from minor parties on every Bill, and would still have been vulnerable to defeat, given that it would face rebellions from within its own ranks, and ambush by the Conservatives.
I can appreciate why neither Labour nor the Lib Dems would have considered this an attractive option.
James Kelly @80
Don’t be ridiculous man.
You cannot get over the fact that Labour were rejected decisively.
And the various nationalist parties were not campaigning to form the government of the United Kingdom - or, indeed, seeking votes from all parts of the kingdom.
The idea that such a coalition would have “command[ed] the support of a clear majority of the UK electorate” is a nonsense.
The only legitimate outcome of the election on the seats and votes measure was what we now have or minority Conservative government.
Anything else would have been a grotesque parody of democracy.
80 - Every single measure affecting England alone would have needed to be railroaded through depending on votes of MPs outside England, because the Conservatives had an absolute majority of English seats (quite a sizeable one 298: 235). Do you think that point would not have been noticed? The Government would have had a real crisis of legitimacy in precisely the area where it had most legislative competence.
60 - Whether Clegg would have formed an alliance with Labour depends on whether we believe his story about changing his mind on the need for immediate cutting.
Given that he’s given various different versions of his timetable,sometime in March maybe, when he was alseep, when he heard Mervyn Kings voice in his head etc etc etc it’s difficult to tell.
But if the numbers were equal I suspect that that he would have done and he’d be rewriting his secret conversations and thoughts on govt spending slightly differently.
84. “And the various nationalist parties were not campaigning to form the government of the United Kingdom - or, indeed, seeking votes from all parts of the kingdom. The idea that such a coalition would have “command[ed] the support of a clear majority of the UK electorate” is a nonsense.”
No, it’s not. Even taking into account your notion that SNP/PC/SDLP votes don’t really count (a peculiar notion of democracy), that doesn’t actually matter - because what you’re overlooking is that the Lib Dems and Labour between them had a clear majority of the UK electorate. Or is your get-out clause going to be that those aren’t “Kingdom-wide” parties either, because they didn’t stand in Northern Ireland? The broadcasters didn’t take much notice of that little problem in the Prime Ministerial (sic) Debates.
antifrank @85:
And legitimacy only where it had least competence.
That is 1/5th of the Kingdom and JK thinks such a state was ‘legitimate’ and desirable.
Obviously part of a cunning plan.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23861763-mod-may-sell-carrier-to-fill-huge-hole-in-defence-budget.do
Last time the Tories tried to sell off a carrier, (Invincible) the Argies saw it as a chance to invade the Falklands, hoping the same trick works twice.
85. I’m sure it would have been ‘noticed’, but until that English majority party gets its act together on what it wants to do about the West Lothian Question, the House of Commons as presently constituted can hardly be regarded as illegitimate. In any case, I was talking principally about popular support, and the Conservatives certainly didn’t win a majority of the popular vote in England.
James Kelly @87:
By God, you’re obtuse. Nationalist votes, by definition, don’t have UK-wide weight. Anymore than a single Green MP in England would justify participation in Scottish government.
Labour lost. Get over it.
I see the tortuous argument tag-team is operating again this afternoon - slow news day obviously.
I don’t think that going back to see what might have been is helpful. We are where we are.
THE most important thing to remember is that Brown is no longer Prime Minister.
Rejoice, Rejoice, Rejoice.
James Kelly @90:
And neither did Labour. And how many did the ScotNats get?
Still 9.9 million votes trumps Labour’s 7 million any time and since we don’t have AV elections - yet - the LibDems’ 6 million as well.
Seats C 297 against the rest 236.
Votes 9.9 million
94, just on this point: nobody votes for a party. No-one.
We all vote for an individual candidate standing in a single seat. Party affiliation might be critical or of no interest to a given voter, but our system doesn’t allow people to vote for (or against) *any* party.
Comparing vote share or number of total voters is daft. Seats are what matter.
As a rambly aside, I’d rather like it if there were less whipping and more free votes in Parliament. Doubt it’ll happen, just as I doubt someone will throw Frodo in the Thames.
*** Betting Post ***
PP have now put the bike-stealing market up under Novelty Bets.
Grab the 5/4 whilst it lasts…
91. “By God, you’re obtuse. Nationalist votes, by definition, don’t have UK-wide weight.”
Can there be a more ‘obtuse’ argument than what you’ve just said? The SNP and PC have less “weight” UK-wide for the obvious reason that they don’t stand in England and therefore have much more limited scope to pick up votes and seats. But to claim that the votes and seats they do actually pick up are of less validity than other parties’ votes and seats is…well, an interesting view of democracy.
“Labour lost. Get over it.”
Everyone “lost”.
92. “I see the tortuous argument tag-team is operating again this afternoon - slow news day obviously.”
Now don’t be so rude about your fellow travellers, Runnymede - this site would be a ghost town without them.
96 - I’m on!
Morris Dancer @95:
It’s a moot point.
Imagine a situation where one party stood candidates in all seats but won only half minus one. And the other party stood in half the seats plus one - and won them all.
Result: 12 million votes to the party with fewer seats to 6 million to the one with the most.
You can argue the constitutional point till the cows come home but the 12 million voters would be right to object to their party being in opposition.
96 - lol, in to 1/2
James Kelly @97:
Not claiming that at all. Just that they don’t have the right to dictate the overall national result.
You of course, seem to think that they do.
78 - The SPD have said they will not go into coalition with Die Linke so it will probably be a grand coalition again with Merkel remaining Chancellor or a Red-Green coalition.
101. “Just that they don’t have the right to dictate the overall national result.”
Geoff, serious question - what does “dictate the overall national result” actually mean? As you claim it’s what I think, it would be handy to know what the hell you’re talking about for future reference.
96. Great spot Richard - made the rest of a thoroughly tedious thread worth wading through.
runnymede @104
It was really wibbler at 7 who spotted it.
84.
Anything else would have been a grotesque parody of democracy.”
Our current electoral system is a gross parody of democracy. About a third of the voters do not even know how it works!
104. Yes, thank God that a bet about hypothetical stolen bikes has broken the unbearable tedium of a thread about politics. Boris Bikes Betting would evidently be a winner as a spin-off site.
Thanks Richard - I managed to get on at 5/4.
I am disinclined towards betting on the “first celebrity on a Boris bike” market - though David Cameron at 12/1 is surely the best value on the list.
@106:
What’s worse is that about 2/3rds think they do.
James Kelly @103
How many posts on this issue now?
And you still don’t get it. No Lab-based coalition would have reached majority without Nationalist support/participation.
Even the holy grail PR vote wouldn’t have got through. The tories would have opposed en masse, virtually. If the DUP abstained or voted against, just 7 or 8 Labour MPs will have buried it. I suspect more than 7 or 8 would vote against.
107 - This is, you might have noticed, a betting site.
Richard N - Cheers for the earlier Oz election arb. On for a guaranteed 25% return.
BTW Fans of Paddy Power might also like to cast an eye over ‘Standard & Poor Upgrade Special’: 2012 or later, 6/1.
107 - Boris Bikes is politics. It’s important politics in a part of the country whose economy is bigger than Scotland’s, Northern Ireland’s, Wales’s and the East Midlands’ combined*.
*Statistic courtesy of A B de P Johnson.
110. Which is ducking my question, and you know it. How does what you’ve just described equate to “a right to dictate the overall national result”? I’m genuinely fascinated.
This is the sort of thing that debases journalism in this country.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/andrewmcfbrown/100049158/david-cameron-really-needs-to-do-something-about-his-waistline/
Pointing out that our beloved leader is a getting plump, (whoooops sorry of course have to use the Coalition term FAT) how dare they.
p.s.
He’s going bald as well.
115 - They say that he’s long had the nickname Fat Dave.
mmm, biscuits.
113. Oh no, you’re putting ideas in Geoff’s head. Next it’ll be that Scottish votes must be “down-weighted” in proportion to the size of our economy. What next - size of feet?
107. “This is, you might have noticed, a betting site.”
I fear you may have missed a word out there. I’ve actually no great objection to a discussion about bikes in London - I was just puncturing (if you’ll forgive the word) Runnymede’s latest grumble.
coldstone @115
Watch it - there’s nothing wrong in being fat and bald.
116 - An ode for the fat boy.
“Fried egg, bacon, sausage, beans, black pudding, fried bread, tea – it’s a meal in itself.”
H.Presley.
James Kelly @107
Boris is a mega national political figure and favourite to become next Tory leader in spite of the fact that he hasn’t sat in the commons for more than two years.
tim @119
I love the Oldham football chant.
“Meat pie - Sausage roll,
Come on Oldham - give us a goal”
120. Sorry to do a Stuart on you, but the obvious question is - which nation? And I trust as a rational man you’d agree that Boris’ status as favourite to become Tory leader is utterly risible.
Dave Muddlebland and Ed ‘total’ Balls= Brokenback Debt Mountain.
The Telegraph’s story re David Cameron ‘waistline’ - this is further proof of the decline of a once great newspaper. I know it’s the silly season but this story is utter, utter tosh.
Whilst the money may be going on David Miliband, I’m surprised there haven’t been any comments on the fact that Ed M is the choice of (Mr & Mrs ‘Unite Union’ - Jack & Harriet) who I’m sure are working away in the undergrowth on a ‘power grab’ should their boy get in. Should we expect a ’shadow front bench’ post for Jack at the very least?
James Kelly @122
The UK including the administrative areas beyond Carlisle and Berwick.
125. Ah, in that case, I’ll have to correct you. Boris is certainly well-known in these parts, but the idea that he’s as “mega” a figure as he is in or close to his powerbase would be very hard to sustain. I gather that Bedfordshire isn’t a million miles away from Greater London, so it might be worth bearing in mind the dangers of a distorted perspective. What seems important to the London-based media is not the same as what is important to the whole “nation”.
122 JK
ah James, still winding up the English I see.
126 JK
a bit like trougher Salmond then.
On thread: Mike’s right - this is prior to the trade union effort to promote their favoured candidate. The big unions only just agreed this in the last ten days and Ed Miliband will be the main beneficiary. This could have an impact on those union members who are also party members and will be voting in 2 of the 3 sections of the electoral college.
It will also be interesting to see how much money Ed Miliband’s campaign can get out of the big 3 unions. There’s no reason why they could not donate well over 100k which will help employ a fair number of staff (along with union secondments) over a short period of time as well as fund and more direct communiciations.
If there is another poll in a month’s time I think it will be closer. The assumption of an even split between the two Milibands from the other candidates is also questionable. However I’m putting my money where my mouth is an topping up on Ed Miliband. I must add that I’m already sitting on a juicy 7/1 ticket for David Miliband from some time back so do so from a position of comfort.
On a related topic, I think this poll increases the chances of Ed Balls withdrawing from the race. If he has intentions of becoming Shadow Chancellor (and I believe this to be the case) then it will not help him if he comes last. Certainly winning 1 in 14 first preferences of party members is a dismal performance with the party faithful. I actually think he’s done well against Gove and his respect among MPs is notably higher than among members. A withdrawal now and he saves some face and remains in the running for the post he covets the most. The question is if he does so will he endorse Ed or David Miliband…
128. Well, quite (other than the ‘trougher’ bit). If I said Salmond was a mega “national” figure in the UK, I’d certainly be challenged on it and rightly so - even though he’s appeared on Have I Got News For You…
O/T.
How is it that only those places which, bizarrely, haven’t heard how desperately bad the Lib Dems are for going into the Coalition, have local council by-elections. How many Lib Dem gains were there last night?
Off Topic - WASHINGTON STATE PRIMARY 2010
My primary ballot arrived in yesterday’s mail, along with King County official Voters’ Pamphlet which includes statements submitted by (nearly) all candidates.
Primary Day is Tuesday, August 17. Note that in WA State, 38 of 39 counties are vote-by-mail (while in the holdout, Pierce Co, most voters request absentee ballot). Meaning that voting has already begun, with 8/17 being the deadline by which returned balllots must be postmarked in order to be counted (after the voter signature on the return envelope has been verified).
Here’s whats on my own ballot for the primary, starting from the top:
>>> US Senator: 15 candidates filed; top two vote-getters regardless of party preference will advance to the general election ballot.
Prefers Democratic Party = 5 including incumbent Patty Murray who is viturally guaranteed to be the top vote-getter, the rest are total no-hopers, including “Goodspace Guy” (”It is your destiny to start the orbital colonization of your solar system”) and “Mike the Moover” who owns a moving company and uses the voters pamphlet for cheap advertising.
Prefers Republican Party = 6 including 2004/08 GOP gubernatorial nomineee Dino Rossi, who is prohibitive favorite to be the other top two finisher; his leading Republican opponents are former pro (US) football player and current eastern WA farmer Curt Didier and business entrepreneur Paul Akers, who will be lucky to garner 10% or thereabouts combined. BTW, Didier and Akers have just announced that they are “teaming up” via joint radio ads and on-line forums. There announcment of this unusual arraingment was marred when their electronic “townhall” announcement fell afoul of technical glitches, according to Seattle Times “Frustrated listeners could be heard cursing in what was later described as ‘a complete phone-system crash.’”
Other US Senate primary candidates (note that designations are provided by them and may/may not refer to actual political parties or groupings) are: prefers Centerist Pary = 1; prefers Reform Party = 1; states no party preference = 2
>>> US House of Representative, CD 7: 6, including incumbent Democratic “Congressman for Life” Jim McDermott, 3 other no-hoper Democrats, 1 prefers Independent - No Party, and 1 states no party preference. Note that no Republican filed, my guess is that one of the nonDems will make it thru to the top two along with McDermott, not that it matters which one.
>>> WA State Senator, LD 46: only one candidate filed, Democrat Scott White who is incumbent state represenative (the incumbent Dem is retiring).
>>> WA State Representative, LD 46, position no. 1: again, only one filed, Democratic newcomer David Frockt (who originally was going to run for state senator against the incumbent, but that was before a backroom deal was worked out!)
>>> WA State Representative, LD 46, position no. 2: two candidates filed (thus both virtually guaranteed to make top two, baring an aggressive write-in campaign which isn’t going to happen), incumbent Democrat Phyllis Kenney and Beau Gunderson who states no party preference; Ms Kenny might have been vulnerable to an active Democratic challenger in the primary, but there is none.
>>> KIng County Prosecuting Attorney: only one candidate filed, incumbent Republican Dan Satterberg; Dan is VERY well regarded across party lines (along with other I tried to get him to switch to Democrat when he was first elected) which is why he’s unopposed in this Democratic stronghold.
>>> State Supreme Court, Justice position no 1: two filed in this (offically) non-partisan race: incumbent Jim Johnson (a GOP creep) and Stan Rumbaugh who is (I think) a Democrat; note that for state court races, any candidate receiving a majority of votes cast for the office in the primary is elected withOUT general election.
>>> State Supreme Court, Jusice position no. 5: only one filed, incumbent (Democrat) Barbara Madson
>>> State Supreme Court, Justice position no. 6: three filed, incumbent (libertarian GOPer) Richard Sanders, Charlie Wiggns and Bryan Chushcoff; note that Democratic establishment has endorsed Wiggins so my guess is that he and Sanders will be top two and advance to general; Sanders is unlikely to get +50% in the primary
>>> State Court of Appeals, Division No. 1, positions no.1 and no. 2: only one candidate filed for each race, incumbents C. Kenneth Grosse and Michael Spearman.
>>> Precinct Committee Officer, Democratic Party: only onne filed = yours truly; note that nobody filed to be Republican PCO.
124.
“The Telegraph’s story re David Cameron ‘waistline’ ”
An act of loyalty to distract readers from his hairline?
130 - I think I saw that episode. Wasn’t he a late substitute for Roy Hattersley?
130
Boris was also on HIGNFY, but he gets to lord it over more people than wee Eck. I suppose Eck will be introducing a hire bike scheme for Scotland soon.
132 - Do you have a link to more information about Goodspace Guy? He sounds like a rather imaginative candidate.
133 WS..Apart from him and his missus..who gives a d*mn..and its no-one else’s business..only very small mminds get involved in this shit..grow up,,
134. Judging from the Telegraph report, you may be mistaking him for David Cameron. (I didn’t want to stoop to that level, but what choice did you leave me…)
135 – There are proposal to extend the scheme to Edinburgh i believe.
btw re: novelty betting market, the scheme has been up and running in Dublin for the past year; only one bike has been stolen and that was later returned.
134.
If Hattersley was ‘a tub of lard’, would The Charmereon be a ‘pot of Creme Fraiche’?
139 SSC
so we can hire a bike and cycle to Edinburgh ? Should be a huge success.
Has there been much noted activity around Boris’ docking stations today?
Has there been much noted activity around Boris’ docking stations today?
141 – Rather you than me Mr Brooke
144 SSC
Oh come on, Edinburgh’s not that bad. It maybe lacks a bit of culture, but at least it’s not Glasgow.
142 - Lots and lots of people looking at the rather sleek notice boards to find out what the deal is. But you can’t use the bikes (yet) unless you pre-registered, so relatively few bikes on the road.
From what I remember of Edinburgh, it was quite hilly, not ideal for cycling. And cold.
Boris Bikes will be used by lots of drunks who have missed the last train.
Speaking of Boris… he appears to be on the One Show right now, and is in sparkling Boris form.
129, HGM - so are you saying that punters should scratch balls????
120. Absolutely no chance of Boris becoming next Tory leader. Far too many stories about his ‘colourful’ private life that would come out
148.
“Boris… … on the One Show right now, and …. in sparkling Boris form.”
Appearing on the black hole of dumbed-down TV, he’d find it hard not to.
Mind you, it’s lucky Christine Bleakley’s gone, Boris presumably would have sought on-screen tuition on how Frank Lampard scores.
136, antifrank
http://www.kingcounty.gov/elections/elections/201008/voterspamphlet.aspx
Here’s another great guote from Goodspaceguy’s statement:
“Elected Experience: Ten Times, voters rejected Goodspaceguy’s economic program!”
Actually know and like this “guy” his first name is Michael, can’t remember his (orignal) surname. Back when Libertarians were (for four years) an official “major party” he was official Libertarian Party observer at King County Elections.
BTW, note that in WA State it costs $1,740 (1% of annual salary) to file for US Senator or US Representative, and this is non-refundable. So he (and other no-hopers) are putting their money where their mouths are!
O/T.
The Hellograph reports that a 20-yr-old man and a thirty-something year old woman, both stark naked, were caught by police rolling around on an Aberdeen roof. Have the whips done a recent count of Conservative MPs?
wage slave @153
Not only has he had his Mrs Robinson moment, but he had it on a roof. Good work that man.
153, ws - given the locale, more likely a Scotish Socialist Party convention?
154 ASOD
are you sure it was Iris on that roof ?
Richard N at 21 - sorry, have been tied up with a monster translation and just saw your query. I don’t know the answer, but my vague recollection of last time is that Unite members (like me) got a magazine with the ballot which inter alia endorsed Cruddas, but not a leaflet saying “vote Cruddas!” I got the feeling I was being nudged rather than shoved.
Anecdote from a friend in a southern CLP: “Andy Burnham won the first ballot by a large plurality, but Ed Miliband picked up nearly all the transfers so we ended up nominating him by one vote. We were not very happy since he was miles behind on first preferences. It’s put some of us right off AV. The sense that your guy won easily and yet he lost because someone else was seen as OK by one more person is very frustrating.”
Incidentally, I see the TES is running a story that I’ve not seen in the mainstream media yet - allegedly Gove cut IT capital budgets a few weeks ago, schools were a bit fed up but went ahead with orders for renewed equipment on the reduced budget, and Gove has now doubled the cut, so that schools are facing contractual commitments that they can’t meet. The complaint is not so much about the cuts as about being led to believe that they did have a reduced budget and then having it taken away - incompetence rather than villainy.
http://www.tes.co.uk/article.aspx?storycode=6052396
Re: the Boris bike (though didn’t this originally refer to the unfortunate woman whose “favors” he and other Spectators shared with David Blunkett?) scheme, anyone who would ride a bicycle in London traffic withOUT a helmet needs to have their head examined BEFORE it gets (totally) cracked.
157. “The sense that your guy won easily and yet he lost because someone else was seen as OK by one more person is very frustrating.”
But he only finds it frustrating because support for “his guy” was in the minority. I’m sure the majority who actually preferred Ed Miliband to Burnham will be quite pleased by the outcome.
157, NP - pretty lame, haven’t they ever experienced close FPTP election results on your turf?
At least this way, the winner had to receive a majority of valid votes cast and counted.
157 - The first wodge of cash was taken out of the budgets and given to the Toby Youbg schools,
what has the hapless Gove got planned for the latest £50 million?
159 - yes, fair point, James: I’m just reporting what she said, partly because it’s interesting that in this case Ed M really did pick up transfers en masse.
On AV, my sense is that many Labour people are now (subconsciously or otherwise) looking for reasons to vote against. I’ve had a pretty negative reaction from people who vote for me to my email saying I continue to support it: some say they’re against on principle, others that they won’t vote for anything that might help this worst government in living memory, etc. Only had a few responses from non-supporters on this one - the LibDems are pleased I’m sticking to my guns, the Tories don’t mention it one way or the other.
HenryG
Isn’t there a cap on what the candidates and the unions can spend on the leadership campaign? Can the unions essentially fund EMili’s campaign? How will that be seen by the wider electorate?
Way Off Topic - 1960 West Virginia Primary
For those of you interested in US political history (which has plenty to teach relative to today’s politics) check out this great website tht I stumbled on yesterday:
Battleground West Virginia: Electing the President in 1960
http://www.wvculture.org/history/1960presidentialcampaign/documents.html
Check out the links at the bottom; probably the best things (and there’s plenty) on this website are the oral histories, also the audiovisuals, esp. JFK’s press conference the morning after his WV primary victory.
164 SSI Politico seemed to think the Democrats could suffer a double whammy in California for both Governor and Senate. Of the two Governor Moonbeam must surely be the most vulnerable but surely Boxer with all her incumbency and the state history should be still ok. How has she really let herself even be concerned now at this point.
A little light relief…
Zippy has crafted an Opus for the Ciffers to mock
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jul/30/george-osborne-recovery-slow-lane
Nick Palmer, HenryG
Do you know how the leadership ballots will be printed? Will people have to write in the actual names or will the candidates be listed and people will simply mark 1,2,3,4,5 next to the printed names? It seems the former could make for some confusion when counting the ballots if people are not careful or do not have legible handwriting. Could be possible that people just write down last names? What would happen if someone just wrote down Miliband? Are Labour members like Florida voters
167. They’ll be printed in alphabetical order Belle. Shouldn’t be too many hanging chads Bella!
Scott P @166
Most of the first comments are along the lines of ”there’s no money left”
168. Sorry should be Belle.
HenryG Manson @168
So Abbot will get a top of the ballot paper boostlet. David will get a mini above Ed boostlet.
163. There isn’t a cap as far as I’m aware. It was something that was discussed after the last election in 1994. I think Jon Cruddas raised a lot of money through Unite the union for the deputy leadershi contest - but that wasn’t too much of a problem for that post. I think Peter Hain raised a fair few quid from the GMB too. For leadership it is different.
There is a real risk for Ed Miliband that he is seen (unfairly) as a captive of the unions. The reality is that the big unions are under no illusion that he isn’t ‘one of them’ but opted for him because he was the best placed candidate to stop David Miliband. I imagine Ed will tackle that in one way or another after the contest should he be successful. But for him the priority is just winning.
165, punter - Believe the “Gov Moonbeam” tag for current CA Attorney General Jerry Brown is a wee bit outdated.
My own view is that, given the year and the candidates, Meg Whitman has an excellent chance of retaining the governor’s office for the Republicans in the Great Bear Republic (though many GOPers would disputed the Governators party credentials). But do NOT count Brown out too early, for one thing he’s a caggy politico and campaigner, and Whitman is green as grass when it comes to politics and campaigns.
As for the US Senate race, think you are overestimating Boxer’s clout. Granted that Carly Fiorino (sp?) is also green and untested as a candidate. BUT Boxer does have vulnerablities AND this is alreasy shaping up as a bad year for incumbents.
One wild card: the anti-immigration flap highlighted by ongoing controversy over new Arizona law. Note that this same issue previously put the kibosh on CA GOP by mobilizing Hispanic voters against them, and has serious potential to do it again in 2010 (and 2012).
149. Or words to that effect.
157. That’s an interesting anecdote about members’ sense of unfairness of AV - particularly if many don’t fill in more than their first preference. I think there’s a very good chance David Miliband will top all 3 sections of the college in the first round - as the YouGov poll currently indicates.
If David Miliband is then overtaken in the final round (which I think likely) then will he be seen as ‘cheated’ by the voting system? The difference in the deputy contest was that Jon Cruddas won the first round of voting, Johnson then kicked in and Harman nicked it. No one candidate led all 3 sections of the college like David Miliband could so it was far less clear cut. Hmm.
new thread