ICM – Guardian	Apr 4	Mar 31
CONSERVATIVES	37%	38%
LABOUR	33%	29%
LIB DEMS	21%	23%
LAB to CON swing from 2005	3.5%	6%

Could this mean that the red team will get most seats?

There’s a new ICM poll for the Guardian just out where the fieldwork was carried out over the holiday weekend. The numbers, with changes on last week’s Guardian/ICM poll show a sharp increase in the Labour numbers to the point where it’s [possible that they could end up with most seats.

The big question now is whether this is supported by other surveys or is a blip.

Given all the other polling in recent days this is sensational and will provide a real boost to Brown as he prepares for his trip tomorrow to call the general election.

There are other polls due this evening.

My betting: When I heard earlier that there was going to be an ICM poll tonight I close down my Tory majority position on Betfair. Generally pollsters avoid bank holiday weekends.

Mike Smithson