Archive for April, 2010

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Labour drop down to 24 percent with Harris

Friday, April 30th, 2010

And the LDs move to within one point

Harris – Mail Apr 30 Apr 28
CONSERVATIVES 33% 32%
LIB DEMS 32% 30%
LABOUR 24% 25%

A second poll out tonight, from Harris for the Daily Mail, has good news for the Yellows, moderately good news for the blues, and Labour edging down to just 24%. This is just one point above the 23% that the Angus Reid/Economist poll found.

News of the poll has come from the reproduction of front page of the paper that’s on the PoliticsHome site. We don’t know the fieldwork date but based on last week’s survey for the paper I’m assuming that it finished today.

One of the great hopes of Lib Dem strategists is that Labour supporters will switch to them when they realise that the election is lost.

Mike Smithson



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It’s almost no change in the first post-debate poll

Friday, April 30th, 2010

Only Labour moves up a point

YouGov – the Sun Apr 30 Apr 29
CONSERVATIVES 34% 34%
LIB DEMS 28% 28%
LABOUR 28% 27%

Those who were expecting big polling changes following the final debate will be disappointed. In the latest YouGov daily poll the Tories remain at their pre-Bigotgate 34% with both Labour and the LDs on 28%.

I think that the Team Blue will find it slightly deflating not to be making the progress that last night’s performance by Cameron might have suggested. A 34 point share is less than one point up on what Michael Howard got in 2005.

So not a lot of movement. Nothing seems to have changed.

Mike Smithson



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The Guardian abandons Labour

Friday, April 30th, 2010


Guardian



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Will this motivate working-class women?

Friday, April 30th, 2010

For me the striking thing about Labour’s final week campaign is not the effectiveness of the poster itself but who it it aimed at. For study after study has shown that the group most detached from the political process are younger working class women.

Not only are they less likely to vote than working class men of the same age but they are also much less likely to have any political allegiance.

But how do you get to them? In countries where political TV advertisements are allowed the campaigns would be piling money into targeted advertising linked to the programmes that this group most watches. But that’s not possible in the UK because of restrictions.

So full marks to Labour for seeking to engage this group. But why have they left it so late and is this poster really going to get the message through?

Mike Smithson



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Is a Tory majority heading back to evens?

Friday, April 30th, 2010

Should punters wait for post-debate polls?

There’s been a sharp movement back to a Tory majority on the overall outcome markets following last night’s debate.

As yet there has been no full voting intention survey but gamblers have decided that this is good for Team Blue.

If you wait for a poll then the odds might have tightened – one of the risks that punters have to take.

Mike Smithson



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Is this Cameron’s platform for Downing Street?

Friday, April 30th, 2010
Who won final debate? ICM AR YouGov ComRes Populus
Cameron 35% 36% 41% 35% 38%
Clegg 27% 30% 32% 33% 38%
Brown 29% 23% 25% 26% 25%

Debate polling – the final figures

All of the pollsters agree that it was Dave wot did it – though Populus has him sharing the top slot with Clegg.

Meanwhile the phone pollster that operates in a very similar manner, ICM for the Guardian, had the Lib Dem leader in bottom place.

Martin Kettle in the Guardian has one of the best overall verdicts: “..The central character in the three-man drama that has so energised British politics this month is neither Brown nor Clegg but David Cameron. It is Cameron who, after a bad debut two weeks ago came back with a stronger performance last week and who, in Jeremy Hunt’s phrase, faced the most important job interview of his life. You may not want to know this, but my impression is that most viewers will judge that he passed. Better start getting used to it.”

It is hard to disagree. The one question remaining is whether he gets an overall majority or not.

Mike Smithson



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The post mortem – continued

Thursday, April 29th, 2010



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The Debate – the verdict

Thursday, April 29th, 2010

Watch the Angus Reid poll results come in live. It will be on here from 10pm.