But PB/Angus Reid has the gap widening to 13 points
March 11th, 2010| Angus Reid for Politicalbetting | Mar 11 | Feb 19 |
|---|---|---|
| CONSERVATIVES | 39% | 38% |
| LABOUR | 26% | 26% |
| LIB DEMS | 18% | 19% |
| LAB to CON swing from 2005 | 8% | 7.5% |
So why the difference between the two online pollsters?
Here’s the second poll of the night - the exclusive Angus Reid one for Politicalbetting - which is showing a radically different picture than YouGov a few minutes ago.
On the face of it this is odd - for both operate on-line confining their polling to members of their panel on whom they have a lot of data. Both use newspaper readership as a key weighting factor and Angus Reid’s UK operation is headed by a former YouGov man.
When we get the detailed data though for both polls I’m going to see if there any obvious differences in the way the weightings are operating.
One thought is that the AR panel was all recruited in the past ten months whereas the YouGov one has been built up over quite a long time. When the latter started having home internet access was very much the exception. Now it’s very much the norm.
The one big difference is the way the firm do their political weightings. YouGov has a complex system involving party ID - AR weights to precisely what respondents said they did in 2005.
It’s interesting as well that of the four firms now polling on-line three are reporting very high shares for “others”. YouGov is the exception.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Ave it?
That’s better
Older, probably
Well its quite simple. If the unadjusted YouGov numbers continue to show a double digit Tory lead then in the absense of a clear explanation from YouGov, someone should lodge a formal complaint with the BPC.
That’s a better result.
You can shove YouGov where the sun don’t shine imho.
Broken Labour on the slide!
Ooh
Broken Labour Broken.
The difference is because You Gov are pants
Better!
Bloody these polls are giving me whiplash.
Well, that make things clearer…
Yougov starting to look very isolated.
As with all polls, you pays your money and you take your choice.
10 point gap!
If YouGov alone call this wrong throughout the campaign; post election they are finished.
wow.
Who do you think you are kidding Mr. Kellner
If you think we’re on the run!
I come back to the same question as before …will those Others choose to use their vote in the Local Elections but still go for the main parties in the General Election…
FPT repost
45.ComRes this Sunday and MORI the following Sunday are the pollsters still with a foot in camp YouGov. A movement from them back to a 7% plus Tory lead and Labour at their 32 and under level would reframe the debate - any closer and YouGov are maybe onto something.
Daily polling is dominating the narrative, but whilst there is some support for a narrowing of the gap, there is almost no support for anything but Tory largest party/majority elsewhere - the latest MORI and COMRES would be borderline Lab largest on UNS but are (thus far) one offs.
YouGov are either inspired, or getting it badly wrong.
That is vey interesting Mike because it ties in with ICM and some others which actually show the Tory share not only firming but marginally increasing. Even YouGov in no way shows a collapse in the Tory vote.What would be the majority for the Tories on these figures please
It’s those Party ID Weightings…..
YouGov is suspect. Don’t trust them.
My heart says ARS.
My head says YOUGOV.
My arse says COMRES-MORI!
Gabble, what are the seat projections?
That`s YouGov smashed to smithereens - Come on Cammo !
Oooh I can stop wailing and gnashing my teeth now.
This would fit in a lot closer with what I’m seeing on the street and in the pub.
13. having looked at the angus reid poll, im sure tomorrows yougov ‘weightings’ will magic up a tory lead of least an 8 points
You gov are softening my stools.
Hmmm… This just doesn’t smell right. Mood music all wrong.
The fundamental difference between the two is the Labour - Other share. YouGov’s data from today’s tracker (ie. the one reported at 10pm last night) shows significant weighting down of Others/None/Don’t Know.
What AR have matched though is the slight drift upwards of the Tory vote that we have seen with ICM and Populus (when translated to a national stage).
I find it hard to find any enthusiasm for the Conservatives..
But even harder to find any for Labour..
Still YouGov may be right and cretins rule the UK..
Gabble you seem to have forgotten your UNS post for this poll!
17% others still.
Oh dear.
This is ridiculous. These pollsters are being paid to produce something that is supposed to be 95% accurate within a margin of error of 2%. I can’t quite do the maths but the probability of the other poll being right on that assumption for the first (whichever one you choose) must be hundreds or possibly thousands to one against.
If you compare the AR v You Gov Shares, the Tories and Lib Dems are 2% and 1% different. Whereas Labour is 8% apart.
Now which pollster has special weightings that ups the labour share?
Labour lower than 1983?
Doesn’t pass the smell test to me…
Shy Labour syndrome.
Tory majority 120?
Well one polling firm is going to have egg on their face come the GE!
Let’s call it 8% (yes, poll averaging I know but from the feel in the country it’s more credible than either 3 or 13.
Interesting. Not sure that these polls show us all that much.
For those of us who knock on doors we know we are not just 3% ahead. We’re doing it in Eirth and Thamesmead and our returns show we are way out in front. I’m not sure how right that is but were not getting doors slammed in our faces!
Mike Smithson:
You’ve just tweeted Con 37 Lab 37 LD 17
You’re not winding up the Labour astroturfers are you?
I go with this one
FPT -
So Gobble - perhaps you can answer the question that Tim has been avoiding (even though he promised to respond).
Please could you provide a few good positive reasons to vote Labour in the forthcoming jamboree? You don’t have to link to anything. Just a straight forward answer would be nice.
Thanks in advance.
Oh well, looks like June 3rd for GE.
My 20/1 is starting to look better and better.
25 If you’re head says YouGov, you must have taken a shed load of mind altering substances.
I don’t want to know what your ar%e has taken.
Kellner and You Gov utterly discredited.
Con gain Bahrain GP!
I wonder which one the media will focus on.
So, we have:
Angus Reid - 13
ICM - 9
Harris - 8
Opinium - 7
YouGov - 3
36 - So the Tories are probably on 44/45, Tim?
I’ll take that.
Phew!
What we are seeing at the moment, essentially, is the Tories miles ahead of Labour. It’s a question of whose unpoularity is the stronger.
We will be heading for a tory majority, here.
I’m still amazed that Labour can rustle up 26%, God knows what people see in them.
Some of the others vote in some polls may be the large number of don’t knows and won’t votes being recorded elsewhere.
Attacking Lumley and the Gurkhas
Attacking the generals and the army
Do labour have a death wish?
LOL.. and, as if by magic, the Angus Ried poll appears and the panic is over!!
Laughable. Ask for your money back mike.
tim
Better get another Sherry Trifle from the fridge.
It’s all down to the weightings, clearly.
ARS have a good track record in Canada. Is this based upon the same methodology as Canada, Mike - ie weight to past vote recall?
Is there any reason to suspect that past vote recall operates differently in the UK to Canada?
Gut instinct and the work watercooler/anecdote/clapham omnibus test tell me that ARS is more correct, and YouGov showing almost no change from 2005 is very wrong.
3 Gabble Suck it up whiner :)!
Mike YouGov 37-37-17.
Labour stooge
To all those assaulting YouGov, remember the other rule? The one about the poll that’s wrong is the one you least like?! This is a much better poll for the Tories, but I really don’t trust the AR voting question - it’s not a question that I think will stand the test of time in this country. Might have worked in Canada, but doesn’t fit in the UK.
There’s a voter recall issue for sure and, I suspect, a ’shy Labour’ vote out there which was similar to the one the Tories had in the latter Thatcher years. This skewed polls badly.
Well I think YouGov are making a complete arse of themselves at the moment. And it’s a great shame to see them shredding the hard earned reputation. Come 7th May none of us will believe a YouGov random number generator ever again. I hope Kellner thinks the 30 pieces of silver off the Sun is worth it.
Mr Kellner you need to have a cold hard look,your reputation is going down the p*n
Wonder which poll the media will be reporting tomorrow? and which one they might accidentally forget to mention?
17% for other parties? Is this a joke poll?
1% - 7% ish lead for the Tories, I think we can safely say from proper polls.
I want more ICM.
Swingbacks laserbeam accuracy appears to have malfunctioned…….
The joke will be on all the pollsters on May 6 when the Lib Dems win a majority.
39 - Rod, the one thing the Conservatives can tell you is that shy supporters stop supporting. It’s not a healthy position for Labour to be in. Remember the YouGov changes have come largely from the weightings being changed for Labour AS WELL as an actual narrowing.
From the Sun poll this morning it showed that 25% of people that voted Labour last time were thinking of not voting for them this time.
That would them down around 25% (which I posted earier) and this poll refects that eariler poll.
38 TSE. Yes that is the key (or at least I hope so).
BenM - perhaps you can answer the question that Tim has been avoiding (even though he promised to respond) and Gobble hasn’t even acknowledged.
Please could you provide a few good positive reasons to vote Labour in the forthcoming jamboree? You don’t have to link to anything. Just a straight forward answer would be nice.
Thanks in advance
39. I spoke to one of my Cornish Mebyon Kernow friends today, who has been pounding the streets for the last two months.
He is adamant that Labour are being wiped out - still - in the southwest, and they may come fourth behind MK in some Westminster constituencies.
Are we seeing a very very differentiated position across the UK? i.e. Labour doing brilliantly in Scotland but terribly in PARTS of England? Could this explain the wildly variant polls?
I have no idea. Truly fascinating, tho.
How do you beccme a member of this polling panel? I have been with yougov from the start but have had no political surveys for over a year and I am fed up with it. All they seem to want to know either my financial position or my shopping/travelling habits.
Please note that in the real world others won’t be near the levels being reported. The others don’t stand in all the seats.
DR/MUOTS poll 12/3
Con 41
Lab 30
LD 21
Not sure that it would make much difference, but AR weight Scotland separately on 2005 voting.
When will the tables be up Mike?
The shiftable others vote (green/UKIP/BNP) would seem to be more weighted to the conservatives on the figures we are getting. If that vote does split (and I still say that the others figures will be historically high, with a correlation of a very low turnout if it is not) then labour will be struggling to get a majority of that shifting support.
In other words, the odds are that the Tories will win a good working majority, although a hung Parliament or slender Labour majority are the likeliest outcomes. Or something.
Blimey. What to make of such conflicting polls?
58. Whazza matter benny boy? Shame of it is ARPO are not the odd ones out. It is Yougov as they are the only ones to use Party ID weightings.
ARPO’s figures are probably the more credible….
This is getting silly. 13 points in one, 3 points in another.
But I’ve some really GOOD news. There is a poll coming up with a sample of around 30,000,000. I’m told the result of that one will stop all this speculation!
70 - You are Mark Senior and I claim my £5
39. 63. Interesting Rod that you posted about ’shy Labour’. Snap! I think so too.
26% Labour, no chance IMO
when in 2009 was this poll done
Anyone want to put their money on Labour at 26%
If, as many of us believe here, there is something fundamentally wrong with the YouGov tracker, then - Think it’s potentially dangerous for Democracy - and punters.
Apparent success can breed success. The narrowing polls are showing Labour and Brown in a better light than they deserve - in my view.
UK Polling Report UNS
CON 350
LAB 224
LIB 46
Con Majority - 50
Tim, my theory is that Angus, Harris and that other one I’ve forgotten the name of, are picking up high others shares that on the day the vast majority will be stay at homes. In other words YouGov may have about 5% of Labours votes that won’t actually turnout.
63 - Why on God’s earth would you be shy about clicking a little box next to the word Labour in an internet poll?
I get the ’shy’ idea about not wanting to look like a swivel-eyed lunatic in the street or sound like a cretin on the phone but the internet is the place where you can be as much of a fool as you want.
See countless PBC threads for details
Which poll is going to be reported on the news bulletins!!!!
Do let me know - goodnight.
86 - thanks Seth - and thats only on UNS - wonder what it is on Andy Cookes magic numbers.
Overhearing the man in the street there is quiet and sometimes not so quiet despair that Labour might get back in. So many reasons to vote Tory and kick Labour out. Make no mistake, average Jo is no fool and has had it up to the back teeth with Labour , particularly in the last couple of years. They will reap a whirlwind in May , no matter what biased pollsters or media commentators try and say.
No , there is no excited sense of optimism as when Blair took office.
The reason is that British people have been ground down by years of Labour government and the deepest recession for 50 years. They are fearful of the future. This is a frightening time for our country and we move forward with trepidation. But we know that we don’t want Brown and Labour who have done immeasurable damage.
A truly disgraceful end to 13 years of Labour government, with British people cowed and scared as a result of what has been done to them.
63 – John, YouGov would have more credit if they hadn’t changed the weighting until several polls into the ‘daily tracker’ – And then forget to mention it, even when pressed to do so here.
Their ‘weighting’ would have more credit, if it was not on an exponential sliding scale – I believe it is up to 25% added to Labour.
In fact, they could not have doe a better job of undermining their own credibility if they had employed BenM, Lily Allen and tim to sing their praises.
Finally! Only now are PBers coming to the conclusion that I have had for over 4 months now: YouGov is tainted.
I cannot prove this, but can anyone prove they’re not.
75 I would suggest the situation is similar in the East of England. There’s a respectable chance Labour will be booted out of Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire and possibly Essex as well (Thurrock might well stay red though)
The 6/4 on MK saving a deposit is value I think.
83. So shy they won’t show their faces at the ballot box….
Anyway with the appearance of a real poll I’m off to watch the Telly…
Toodle Pip!
84 - agree. It’s absurd. Labour won’t drop below 30% in the election, I would bet anything anyone would care to mention on that.
Bless “Angus Reid”. I have no idea who they are or what their track record is - I haven’t seen any detailed tables or breakdowns - but their headline results are a hoot!
The main problem I have with both Yougov and Angus Reid is the process of composition of their panel.
We have absolutely no idea how it is selected, or constituted.
IF AR weights to 2005 recall isn’t it cast-iron certain that they are under-recording Labour? For, IIRC, over-stating of actual Labour voting is as old as over-polling of Labour voting intention.
Labour supporters shouldn’t comfort themselves that they have a latent “shy” Labour vote - there’s no evidence that, in the absence of a compelling narrative to vote positively for Labour and a strong and attractive leader like Blair - that their voters won’t just sit on their backsides on May 6th.
Remember that a) Turnout fell in safe Labour seats in 1997 and b)Major led on economic competence but was still mullahed at the polls.
YouGov overstating labour, ARS understating it. Actual result around 40/30/20….looks right to me.
93 - Not tainted. I think their methodology is incorrect, since this weightings farrago.
We all make mistakes. There is no ulterior motive on their part.
Does AR have a much smaller panel than You gov? If it is say 5000 then it may be unrepresntative and to keep going back to mainly the same people keeps producing similar results. Their figures have hardly moved since they started
You do realise everybody that the AR poll will have Tebbit and Heffer foaming at the mouth!!
re 60 AR operate the same methodology in the UK as they operate in Canada. Past vote weighting linked to the actual result in 2005 not a notional result.
94. Labour already have no parliamentary seats in Cambridgeshire and only have one County, District or Town Councillor outside Cambridge!
Are YouGov factoring in the postal vote?
It looks like Angus Reid picked up the horticulturalist vote that Yougov missed.
re 85 stjohn it wouldn’t matter if we got truthful reporting in the media, but then OGH can’t be everywhere and we don’t. With the current media narrative we’d get this poll reporting as “Labour vote holds firm - could Brown come from behind a sneak a victory?”
102 comments in 15 mins is this a record?
97. Labour won’t drop below 30. Why are you so certain? Personally I think they will be arouns 30% myself, but theres nothing to say they CAN’T poll below 30%.
Well I’m going to vote Labour but I sure as heck am not telling a soul!
And I didn’t vote for them last time.
Just think this isn’t the time for untried people like Cameron and, especially, Osborne. They’re novices. I know what I’m getting with Brown and co. I don’t like them very much but I think they’re going to keep pulling us out of recession.
103 madmacs
I think the ARS panel is about 40000; Yougov panel about 300000 - but Yougov is polling daily; ARS only monthly.
And now we have the red party defending, so funny
94. MK are certainly very hopeful of saving their deposits in one or two constituencies. That could be VALUE.
They also hope, as I say, to beat Labour into fourth in places. Not so sure about that. But I’m going down to canvass for them in April*.
*MK split the lefty/Labour/LD vote so that assists the Tories.
Wait to see the AR poll being ignored by the BBC.It does’nt fit the carefully constructed narrative.
110 - Weren’t we getting a 100 comments a minute the moment James Purnell resigned?
A leading House Democrat says they’re giving up on trying to convince Stupak and his merry band of followers to vote for Obamacare:
http://blogs.investors.com/capitalhill/index.php/home/35-politics/1501-democrats-stop-trying-to-win-over-stupak-pro-life-dems
If that’s true, it’s not at all apparent how they can possibly pass it.
I have been door knocking with a team of others, day in and day out, and I promise you all that finding *anyone* prepared to tell us they will vote Brown. A really significant number (especially women) are telling us they did vote for Blair and wont vote for Gordon.
I canvassed in 97, 01 and was the candidate last time so I have a good basis for comparison. The Labour vote may well be holding up elsewhere but for the South West I’d say low teens max and very possibly, as with the Euro vote, Labour in Devon, Cornwall and Somerset could be in single figures.
Which means for Yougov to be right, in other parts of the UK Labour must be doing much better than 2005, or even possibly 2001.
I dont live there and cannot say, but that does not feel right to me.
But the inteesting thing to me is that there is no movement at all to Labour in this latest AR Poll - the last one picked up a movement. Now that surely ties in with ICM.
112 Except on here anonymously lol!
Even internet polling involved registration of voter details.
In fact standing the weightings being used by YouGov it is almost impossible for Labour to do badly. They have not only taken the 2005 results but augmented them with “disloyal Labour”. The result is that any Labour supporters are artificially enhanced back to the 2005 level of support which is roughly what we are seeing. The fewer labour supporters that are found the more they are weighted back to 2005. It just seems bizarre and Kellner notably failed to justify it when here. Is he retiring?
re 90 Andy Cooke has
C 370
Lab 194
LD 49
Tory majority 90
Pinched these figures from a ConHome post, re the current leads. How odd that AR are the highest by 4% and YouGov the lowest by 4%…
Angus Reid - 13
ICM - 9
Harris - 8
Opinium - 7
YouGov - 3
Lol, AR are jokes. I wish i had come up with the idea of supplying a poll where the numbers vary marginally. You PBers should realise that in the wilder world YouGov are one of the most trusted pollsters. AR, Opinium, Harris, etc, have no track record in UK GE polling.
YouGov is beginning to look a bit isolated now. Then again, which one will get the most media attention? I think we can guess.
106 Yes, I know - I was using N, S and Cambs as the basis (mostly) of East Anglia - Labour being absented from an area rather than a county alone.
YouGov is beginning to look a bit isolated now. Then again, which one will get the most media attention? I think we can guess.
In the battle of the internet pollsters, it is simple.
There is one that is pretty much in line with the other methodolgies minus the spiral of silence adjustment.
AR.
Simples.
111 - core vote. It won’t drop below 30, and that’s not even taking into account the recent recovery.
This poll is fantasy.
YouGov are the ones with the best recent track record, by far.
Hmmm well isn’t it strange a few months ago when Yougov was reporting large Tory leads, and ARC were counting racoons in Manitoba, Yougov were the flavour of the month, suddenly not. Wonder why?
re 97 well Ash there’s a simple reason for that, it’s because you haven’t looked. Most posters on this site are intelligent so stop insulting us with your infantile comments.
Not had chance to catch up on the last couple of threads, but am I right in saying it is only the Labour share that is at odds with yougov ?
i do wonder if the list of MPs standing down might provide clues, especially the most recent ones.
Lets hope we get an ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph this weekend.
105. I’d rather trust a pollster who’s track record is not confined to a foreign country with entirely different demographics and party system (however good they may be there)…
112 - hilarious. A guide to trolling:
1. Never voted Labour before
2. But will do next time
3. Cameron et al are novices
4. Gordon Brown - flawed, but I know what I’m getting
5. Making the right decisions, getting us out of recession
Try harder.
124: Exactly..take 4% away from the lead in ARS, and add 4% to the lead in YouGov, which gives the ‘real’ lead at 7-10% which just so happens to be around the ICM figure.
YouGov are overstating Labour…simple as.
[wibbler] - The main problem I have with both Yougov and Angus Reid is the process of composition of their panel.
We have absolutely no idea how it is selected, or constituted.
This is a fair point, in an abstract statistical sense. However, in practice YouGov have so far a very good record, comparable to, if not as long as, ICM.
137 6. Short and common first name as a handle…
What was that that golden rule again. The worst poll for labour is probably right. 13% lead it is. Conservative cruising to a massive majority.
115 I have a feeling MK will mop up the protest vote for Cornwall, good luck to them I say.
125 UKPB awaits you, join red reg and co thats where you belong
GIN - We all have our theories, but I take with a large pinch of salt both the daily polls and the “Others gain Narnia” lot.
I’d lean towards a 7% lead, very close to a hung parliament.
131: Because YouGov started mucking around with how they do things?? They changed their methodology.
131. I still like YouGov Coldy and I think they are a good pollster. I just have reservations about doing a daily poll because I don’t like daily polling and I think it pushes polling to an absurd level where it simply can’t be accurate.
119 on the iphone, should have said we are finding *no-one* prepared to admit to us they intend to vote Labour.
Wow look..me and tim agree on something. 7%ish lead, Torys hovering between majority and hung parliment with them just short.
“Sun’s daily poll March 12″
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2889334/Suns-daily-poll-March-12.html
Are YouGov factoring in the postal vote?
Or are AR not allowed to count labour voters once they get to 26%
122 he’s just an old Labourite defending the ancien regime to the bitter end. he will retire after the election then enjoy his wife’s large pension in a few years.
125 (Jayu) Maybe you should have read this site before posting, then you’d know that picking apart polls is the number one pastime here, and that the close analysis being given to them, above and beyond the blithe acceptance elsewhere, makes Yougov look very suspicious.
Continue posting but you’d be best finding out just how knowledgeable these commenters are before giving a content free piece of partisan spin that is liable to be ripped apart.
112 Has Gerald Harper changed his name by deed poll?
119
Could be bad news for you in Torbay Marcus, you need Labour people to vote Labour or else it could be the Libdems.
148. That’s because they will be voting LibDem.
Right chaps, I’m off to bed.
Tomorrow, Bahrain begins, hurrah!
130. 139 YouGov have NO track record on their current methodology.
In fact they have no GE track record on their methodology pre the 2010 changes either.
112 - Oh my word. If there has ever, EVER been a more blatant troll doing a copy and paste job from the bunker I’d like to see it.
148 - Anyone voting Labour in Torbay is mad, they’d vote Lib Dem to keep out the Tory Ashcroft candidate (as revealed by the candidate himself in the local press)
Ash/coldstone - YouGov changed their methodology quite a bit in terms of weightings. Their track record based on this new set-up is zero at the moment, the same as AR’s for the UK GE. The ones with a track record are ICM. ICM showed a decent Tory position and the others are in the ball-park. Both AR and YouGov are outside this central range by 4% in either direction.
131 - For crying out loud coldstone, you *know* why so stop the faux naivety. The weightings change has given people pause and rightly so.
147
Fiddling the figures? tut tut, according to Mike posters are not allowed to question a pollsters integrity.
have you noticed fellow Tories, the labour lot are very shallow, think ill have a pop over to UKPL and I will enjoy. lolllll, I wont be long.
125 - Harris have no GE record?
Huh? Which planet have you come from?
REporting Scotland on BBC item that Labour bosses in East Lothian have written an open letter to Anne Moffat the MP in the local newspapers encouraging her to stand down as she is damaging the Labour Party. She has indicated she intends to fight the deselection attempts. Remember this is the constituency of Labour’s so called leader at Holyrood.
Meanwhile it is also covering the Jim Devine appearance in court this afternoon.
Separately the number of marriages in Scotland has fallen to the lowest number in 150 years.
On thread, why should Labour not score sub 30% at the GE? It managed sub 20% last summer at the Euro elections.
Outside Broxtowe is anyone experiencing a strengthening of the Labour vote? My spies around Scotland are not detecting the great Labour rally PBers seem to think is on the go.
Fairly useless YG supplementaries
158 - In fact they have no GE track record on their methodology pre the 2010 changes either
Obviously
Neither do ARPO, so your “argument” fails.
115 SeanT
Labour’s collapse in Cornwall will not affect the election. Using Anthony Wells’s notionals the 2005 vote share for the county was LibDem 115,240 Con 82,543 and Lab 41,140. Cons lie second to LD in all but one of the six seats.
The key question therefore is what is happening to the Lib Dem vote. Tories need a near 7% LD to Tory swing to take 5 of the 6 seats. One seat (St Austell and Newquay) would fall on a 1% swing (assuming notionals are right for this new seat).
Do your friends have anything to say on the Lib Dem vs. Tory battle?
162
You no more know which one of those polls is correct than I do, or anyone else. Yougov does have a track record in this country, ARC does not!
131 they changed the way they did their figures, resulting in lower leads for the Conservatives. Kellner wouldnt explain why.
I have to say that I do fear Scotland is going more pro labour. It seems to be an instinctive response seen in the 1980s. The better the Tories do in England the more the Scots react by supporting Labour. I think I saw YouGov had Labour at 49% in the Scottish sub-poll. That seems very high but they are certainly doing a lot better than indicated in the South West and East.
I have to say that I do fear Scotland is going more pro labour. It seems to be an instinctive response seen in the 1980s. The better the Tories do in England the more the Scots react by supporting Labour. I think I saw YouGov had Labour at 49% in the Scottish sub-poll. That seems very high but they are certainly doing a lot better than indicated in the South West and East.
Sarkozy will be meeting Cameron for talks after two years avoiding him. Looks like Sarkozy doesn’t bet on You Gov being right either.
http://the-tap.blogspot.com/2010/03/cameron.html
Well I’m going to vote Labour but I sure as heck am not telling a soul!
And I didn’t vote for them last time.
Just think this isn’t the time for untried people like Cameron and, especially, Osborne. They’re novices. I know what I’m getting with Brown and co. I don’t like them very much but I think they’re going to keep pulling us out of recession.
by John March 11th, 2010 at 10:24 pm
This is not me. How do we have people on here with the same name?
163: Us sensible ones are not questioning their integrity, but their methodolgy. Clearly either ARS or YouGov cannot be reconcilied and either one is widly wrong, or both are less wrong. ICM/Harris etc are sitting nicely in the middle between them.
You pays your money, you takes your choice.
This is just ridiculous. You Tory people can’t slag off YouGov, with their proven methodological expertise, just because they show figures you don’t like.
It’s ludicrous. And childish. What would happen if YouGov showed 50/20/10 and AR showed 35/35/20? Some people would just jump again wouldn’t they? These are experts. Not partisans like you. Grow up.
I’m really impressed by the number of you who are skilled mathematicians and psephologists and also have access to the detailed weighting algorithms that all the pollsters use.
Pity you can’t agree!
144. Bizarrely tim, I agree with you.
Topping and tailing has always seemed, to me, to be a sensible statistical ploy - topping and tailing Yougov and ARS from the spectrum of polls gives an average Tory lead of about 6-7%. Right on the edge of a Hung Parl.
Until today I’d have said that this favoured Labour, with the narrative seemingly being - inexorably - in their favour. Plus Tory ineptitude.
However today, as I have said, I’ve sniffed the beginnings of a possible change.
But then again I am manic depressive. So who knows. Actually I’m more manic today than depressive - my first (and very early) review of Marks of Cain has arrived in the USA, from the influential trade magazine Booklist. “Intriguing and well told”.
This may seem pathetically lukewarm, but from these librarian types it’s a rave. Yay!
Now off to watch QT, or if that gets too boring, Breaking Bad.
123,
Following on from that:
If the standard deviation of swing is wider than the historical norm (which I suspect may be the case this time), it very slightly reduces the Tory majority (to 88; assuming sds of 4, 4.5, 4.5 (which are historically very large))
At a rewind of 75%, it’s a majority of 78.
At a rewind of just 50% it’s a majority of 66 (all central predictions)
Opinion polls are a complete waste of time and money.
Gordon’s on Newsnight getting excited over a railway line that *might* be finished by 2026. What’s next? Personal jetpacks for all schoolchildren under 7? Free 100 Gig Broadband on iPhones that fit in your ear?
It really is the end of days.
Remember, frightened Tory posters, the ballots cast are not weighted*
* Well, they’re not supposed to be.
150. Again no sample size. Can someone complain to the Sun/BPC?
Jo Swinson not looking pretty tonight, possibly she has put on weight. Kelvin Mackenzie’s grin said “I am going to have fun with all these damn feminists tonight!”.
170 - You are trying to play dumb when you know full well the answer to your question.
Say what you mean!
YouGov - Labour over-staters.
Angus Reid - Labour under-staters.
Little credibility for either of them, in my book.
O/T.
There’s a great bit of TV on the news where a tory type in Berkshire is interviewed about the high speed rail link saying “it’s a true blue area, we don’t want it here” segued into an interview with Theresa Villiers claiming that Labour isn’t going far enough.
178: Any data which is shown to be an outlier should be treated with caution….thats just sensible. At the moment YouGov is an outlier, but an influencal one becuase its daily and dicating the flow.
So the ten pollsters now give shares as follows:
Lab
Yougov 34
BPIX 34
Mori 32
Comres 32
ICM 31
TNS 31
Opinium 30
Populus 30
Harris 29
ARS 26
Con
ICM 40
Populus 40
TNS 39
ARS 39
Yougov 37
Comres 37
Harris 37
Opinium 37
Mori 37
BPIX 36
Some of those polls are pretty old but, what does that tell us.
1. There is general consensus on the Conservatives in the 37 - 40 point range.
2. There is disagreement on Labour at the top and bottom end. Most pollsters have them in the 29 - 32 range. Yougov / BPIX have them higher and ARS lower - giving a 26 - 34 range.
This indicates a narrowing since before Christmas, but it is unclear if that narrowing is continuing. This is where the frequency of Yougov polls has an impact. If we had 2/3 new ICM polls a week we would know a lot more. The daily poll shows that sampling variation can have a significant impact (where 1/2/3 point changes are significant).
One question I would have for ARS would be - why are they so stable? Sampling variation would indicate more volitility than they are showing.
On the Tory anecdotes: ‘I don’t meet anyone who would vote Labour so the polls must be wrong’. There is something called confirmation bias - we more readily process information we agree with. But also, the UK is demographically and politically diverse. Just because you don’t come into contact with Labour voters doesn’t mean they don’t exist - also after 13 years in government it may be that Tories are more vocal.
Opinion polls are the best tools we have to assess opinion across the UK.
tim ‘leans’ towards 7.
If he stands up straight, its 9-10.
I was arguing with a bloke who was suggesting they should be believed HAD a track record.
Don’t try your willy waving with me. I am singularly unimpressed by it.
tim,
Did you pick up the regionalised unwind calculator (over on pb2)? And if so, does it make a large difference (I never got the time to run many scenarios on it)?
False recall is clearly a big problem for the pollsters. However whilst the extent to which people claim they voted Labour when they actually did not vote, which requires a static reweighing in favour of Labour, there should be a dynamic adjustment in the opposite direction due to the fact that people cannot remember which election they voted for which party.
Here we have had council elections, London Mayoral elections and European elections since the last general election. In all of these Labour has done much much worse than general election. Surely it is obvious that some people voted Labour in the last general and for other parties in these, but when asked how they voted in the last general election tell the pollsters how they voted in the last election they voted in.
BAXTERED:
Con 357
Lab 216
Lib 46
Con Majority - 67
TORY GAINS include:
Exeter - goodbye Ben Bradshaw
Harrow East - goodbye Tony McNulty
Bolton West - goodbye Ruth Kelly
Broxtowe - goodbye Nick Palmer
Bury North - goodbye David Chaytor
Edinburgh South West - goodbye Alistair Darling
Redditch - goodbye Jacqui Smith
Eastleigh - goodbye Chris Huhne
UNS, so it’s all hocus, but fun to look at none the less!
74
Grendel, I wouldn’t bother expecting any coherent reply from BenM. He ran away fast enough the other night when he realised he was trying to pick an argument with someone who actually knew something about the subject under discussion. Like all cowards he wuill only pick fights with those he perceives as weak.
131 coldstone
Hmmm well isn’t it strange a few months ago when Yougov was reporting large Tory leads, and ARC were counting racoons in Manitoba, Yougov were the flavour of the month, suddenly not. Wonder why?
Well, because we are biased in favour of the polls with the biggest tory leads. And because it is fun winding you up. Any more idiot cunning queries you would like us to help you with?
I have no confidence in YouGov’s complex and messy weighting system. They are simply too volatile. The AR poll is probably slightly overestimating the lead but I still think it is around 10 points.
John. Do what I did after 7 years of being ‘joe’, change your name. How about ‘johnthefirst’?
178 - “This is just ridiculous. You Tory people can’t slag off YouGov, with their proven methodological expertise, just because they show figures you don’t like.”
Which, for the millionth time, is not being used for this tracker poll! They have changed their methodology significantly, leading to much smaller Conservative leads from data that would have, under their previous methodology, resulted in larger ones. Do you really not understand this, or do you just not want to so you can keep saying the same thing?
178 - Not just tories FFS.
Why do you people not see the other parties? Is your partisan blindness so complete that you are still in that worthless Bushite with us/against us mindset?
Yougov give suppressed lib dem figures, always have. They know it and don’t do anything about it.
192 * be believed because they HAD a …blah blah
189 ‘Berkshire’? Buckinghamshire. Having problems with simple facts again tim?
190 - AR looks like a huge outlier to me too. Others on 17? Labour on 26? Fantasy.
Remember YouGov’s track record of accuracy.
Well if ARC were looking for a nice fat contract from the Sun, they may be getting it soon.
As I guessed a waste of time on that other spinning site, my prediction is a widening of the polls even further ( apart from Yougov)as the strikes take hold, BA, National Rail, British Gas, who to mention next.
167 - same here Mark.
203. Harris and Opinium have also been showing Others at around 16-17%.
Most pollsters have Labours share lower than YouGov (but not as low as AR)
180 - I also agree with your earlier point about regional variations, and I think this links in to an earlier point you made about perceptions of Osborne and Cameron (and Brown and Darling)
Mike should suggest that ARPO do a regional breakdown of their next leaders approval ratings on a large enough poll.
WAYNE’S TAKE;
I have kept my cool, throughout all of the last few weeks. I have however posted on a number of occasions that I believe that Labour share is somewhere between ARS 26 and ICM 30.
I believe ICM have the Tory share spot on at the moment at 40 and Labour share is 27/28%
The Tories will get a 2% GE boost and the GE result will be
Con 42 Lab 27 Lib 20, others 11
I have not come across a single soul who is enthused about voting Labour.
155,156,160: We assume that ourselves; but its not showing in the polls is it? Lib Dems still missing 25% of their 2005 votes.
SeanT as you know the Lib Dems are the left wing political establishment in the SW now, and the mood is a sharp turn to the right. The LD habit of backing Labour to reassure TV is simply painting them into a corner from which their is no escape.
Put your money on big C gains down here, - I have.
189 tim, the funniest thing about the railway line is that the farmer who’s land has already been earmarked for a massive railway junction knows *absolutely nothing* about the scheme. Odds of this line being built - close to zero. It’s a total fantasy. Even Villiers is talking out of her fundament.
strikes over easter, disaster of a budget, i can see Labour roaring ahead.lol
200. Something Mark Senior has been taking up with them for a while.
But there current problems are born out of overstating the LDs last time around. Kellner talked of getting the left/right split right last time but internal division wrong. Hence they swung the other way: they overcook Labour and leave the LDs raw.
But isn’t there something wrong with that assumption anyway if some have the left [eg LDs] have gone right [Tory].
178 - Ash, YouGov have been historically concerned that they get a little too much support from natural Tories as opposed natural Labour. They have always had weightings that are designed to counteract it. Fair enough. These weightings have gone much further recently which means their track record no longer applies. They may very well be correct but compare what they are showing with ICM, who noted a slight up-tick in the Tory level.
Onto AR you are correct that they have no track record and I do think they have Labour a bit too low and the others a touch too high. But we will all find out on the 6th May (hopefully before)…
203. Ash, the more you make the same point, the less confident in it you appear.
AR are the gold standard. Trust me on this.
And great bolshy yarblockos to you.
199 - YouGov are NOT conducting a tracker poll, for the millionth time.
And they have a track record of knowing how to deal with methodology. There is no reason to assume that their changes have been pro-Labour or pro-Tory. There is every reason to assume they have been pro-accuracy.
It’s unedifying to see people questioning YouGov’s expertise and / or integrity because they don’t like the results.
191. Kieren, BPIX are basically YouGov as well (though we don’t know if BPIX weightings are the same as normal YG polls)
Flinty’s looking her age now isn’t she?
Still would though…
YouGov? Notmeguv.
Will there be another rent-a-lefty audience on QT? Looks like it…
216 Ash, do you work for YouGov?
164
I agree Coldstone. The idea that Kellner or any other pollster would put their whole livelihood at risk by purposefully being wrong in the polls is just plain daft. People making such suggestions really don’t seem to understand the nature of the polling organisations and how badly damaged they can be by getting it very wrong compared to the final result. Everyone overestimating one party or another a touch is one thing and is understandable/forgiveable but no one is seriously going to set out to destroy a business they have spent years building up no matter how much they might like one side or another to win.
I do think that Yougov are seriously off track here but I tend to the cock up not the conspiracy theory. And whilst I hope Brown is on his way out, as someone who bought into the whole Yougov idea very early on and regularly takes part in their polls I would be very very sad if they do fall down come the election.
I have an entirely unscientific theory about the very high “others” scores.
There’s a chunk of the citizenry who feel that it is wrong to say that they are not going to vote, but they’re not going to vote either Labour or Conservative (or Lib Dem). So they say they will vote for “Others”.
In practice, Others *will* do better than last time - maybe up to 10% this time; but many just stay home on the day, and some come back and vote for whoever they voted for last time when they fail to find an acceptable “Other” on their ballot paper.
And if you fiddle with those Others accordingly, you end up back in 40-30-20 territory.
AR feels more right to me than YouGov - partly this is because it backs up my own wishes I’m sure - but it seems to indicate a more static voting intention pattern which I find much more credible than the 5% of people that YouGov would have us believe are constantly chopping and changing.
So I guess I’m giving their headline numbers extra credit due to their stability.
I really hope this difference stays around until polling day - it’ll make it an even more exciting night.
Two more illustrations why opinion polls should not be taken too seriously.
193 - I haven’t done much with it, I’d like some decent leader approval ratings by region.
192 - Almost clever again.
Time to trot out your Sarah Brown in the media baiting, perhaps not today eh?
167 “Outside Broxtowe is anyone experiencing a strengthening of the Labour vote?”
Inner city - defo stronger - Iraq, Obama and new imported voters.
226 ‘Time to trot out your Sarah Brown in the media baiting, perhaps not today eh?’
What’s Magda done now tim?
216 - They are a clear outlier, take away the too heavily manipulated Yougov and the feasibly too raw ARS and look at the rest for where we are really at. ICM, as ever, remains the real gold standard for the knowledgeable on this site.
I noticed stjohn on tonight,
Your question to me a few days ago (I haven’t noticed you on during the times I’ve been on):
Does any party have my allegiance?
and
Have I got any bets on the General Election?
Q1 - I’m not a member of any party. I’ve voted Lib Dem, Labour and Conservative at General Elections in the past. i tend to consider myself rather floaty (and actually read manifestos) but I must confess to an anti-Labour tendency at the moment (well, anti-Brown/Whelan/Balls/Campbell/Draper/Mandelson mainly). I’m a fan of the “Direct Democracy” approach and the Swedish schools proposals and will probably vote Conservative this time. I’m obviously concerned about potential bias, which is why I’ve tried to take pains to expose all of my “working”, despite it making posts rather longer than arguably necessary.
Q2 - I’m not much of a better, but since going “live” with my model, I’ve ventured a few quid (nothing like the true punters) on Betfair, on the Con maj/Cameron leader (leader/result market) on Betfair, and on Con majority, covering the 325-374 seat bands.
182. Some are.
I have question time on, and I can see how YouGov get labour so high.
211 EdP “Even Villiers is talking out of her fundament.”
Villiers always talks out of her fundament. She is my local MP and I have NO intention of voting for her whatsoever, even though I will be doing my bit to help the Conservative cause in other areas.
Surely the Tories must have someone better than her to put in the Shadow Cabinet?
216
“It’s unedifying to see people questioning YouGov’s expertise and / or integrity because they don’t like the results”
I agree. But you questioned Angus Reid’s methodology in exactly the same way on this thread earlier. Why is it okay to question one pollster’s methods but not anothers?
216. Ash
“It’s unedifying to see people questioning YouGov’s expertise and / or integrity because they don’t like the results.”
Who is here to be edifie?
And BTW It’s unedifying to see people questioning Angus Reid’s expertise and / or integrity because they don’t like the results.
I think AR and one or two others have the “others” hare correct. Only 9 months ago, 43% voted for “others” in the European elections, a figure heavily boosted by [ublic showing their dis-satisfaction over the expenses scandal. It is reasonable to assume that around 4 out of 10 have still not forgiven the three main Parties.
Of course, there will not be a 17% share of the vote for “others” at the GE, owing to the fact that the minor Parties will not be putting up candidates in all of the seats contested. However, if there WERE all to put up candidates, I could easily see them knocking on 20% combined.
223 - There is something in that, which is why I think that the high others polling precurses a low turnout or a high others score (but not both).
I’m betting on a low turnout.
229.
Agreed, ICM remain above reproach. Just a shame they seem to bring out a poll once every blue moon (though of course it’s monthly).
re 178 I would state that one, or perhaps both, of them was wrong despite all their expertise
210 - Marcus Put your money on big C gains down here, - I have.
Sounds like Ashcrofts slogan, is he a ventriloquist
223. Thats my best guess to whats going on Matthew.
Somehow AR, Harris and Opinium are getting Won’t Vote down as Others.
My guess is that YouGov are getting Won’t Vote down as Labour.
YouGov will be overstating Labour by about 5% and the new pollsters will be overstating Others by about 5%.
Why AR also have Labour so low I can’t work out.
233.
I don’t mind Villiers, but I know what you mean. She’s there to make the Tory front bench less male. End of.
240 tim, talking of dummies is Whelan pulling your strings tonight?
229 - you say YouGov data is “too heavily manipulated”. But with their record of accuracy, do you really think that’s realistic? Are you questioning their expertise or their integrity?
ICM are of course an excellent pollster too. And public opinion is hugely fluid currently. Which is why, as I said earlier, the “true” postition looks at the moment like 1% - 7% Tory lead.
216 - call it what you like. But you can’t keep going on about their tested methodology when it’s not the same one as they normally use.
@237: Yes, I agree with that. But the low turnout is differential. We might see some upsets with very low turnout in “safe” seats, but unusually high turnout in some marginals.
242 - I fully predict she’ll be replaced by Greening at some point. She’s a goodun.
I’m going for high turnout, as it’s going to be close.
228 I am not the one who trots Sarah out.
You must be confusing me with Gordon.
Willy waving may not be nice but it’s more attractive than whining.
Flint has fallen off in the hot MP stakes. Shame. I nearly swung towards Labour when I first saw her
re 190 well tim maybe it’s because the new line is not going anywhere near Berkshire.
238. ICM should start getting more regular from now onwards. We’ve already had an ICM for the NotW this month, hopefully we’ll have one in the Sunday Times this weekend and then we should get one in the Guardian towards the end of the month (hopefully the weekend after the budget)
232. YouGov poll the QT audience?
244 - I’m looking at their results and comparing them with ICM who don’t tart around with their figures anywhere near as much.
I’m sorry you seem to have fallen for the misapprehension that Yougov are in some sense the one to follow. The real worry is that, like Rasmussen in the US, they are being used to drive a narrative, even though they are a clear outlier. The ‘true position’ is around a 7% lead, to suggest anything like 1% blows your credibility.
On turnout, I’ve covered bets from 60-70. I just can’t see it being outwith this range.
154 ukpaul
I wouldn’t class the majority of post on here as being knowledgeable in all things psephological. For that I go to UKPR. I come here to laugh at the rabid ignorance.
247 The Raven. Greening - yes, good call.
246 - Again, I agree but I would imagine that low turnout would tend to be in city seats making them much more volatile and open to surprise results than rural ones.
GIN - Yes I’m aware that BPIX are both non-BPC members and rely on YG data collection (similar to Populus with ICM), but was just putting all facts on the table. It is clear that YG and BPIX have a tendency to overstate Labour vis a vis the other pollsters.
Omnium - For me the opposite is the case. The stability is of ARS is puzzling. Even if the actual result was constant sampling variation would mean changed shares. Mori, for example, is too volatile, but ARS is too stable. I think this bias to stability is us expecting too much of the polls - they can never get it absolutely right every time.
216 Ash, if you had bothered to look back on previous threads you will see that we questioned the new Youov methodology as soon as it started.
More importantly Peter Kellner came on here last Tuesday and even though several PBers of varying political shades specifically asked him to explain why the party weighting has suddenly been changed and seems all one way, he chose not to answer. If he is confident about it, he should have openly explained it as the chap from Angus Reid had done the previous week.
Personally I know think that YouGov’s failure/refusal to explain why large Tory leads are being weighted down so much does now justify a formal complaint to the BPC.
re 238. I’m really really hoping that we’ll get at least two more ICM polls this month. There’s the Guardian one to come for sure but it would be great to see another one.
250 - David Roe.
Which bit of you swung first?
244
“ICM are of course an excellent pollster too. And public opinion is hugely fluid currently. Which is why, as I said earlier, the “true” postition looks at the moment like 1% - 7% Tory lead.”
Yes, but you said that on the last thread before seeing the AR results.
You don’t go for this wishy washy nonsense of changing your mind when the facts change, then.
261 - Mr Smithson, what do you think is going on right now? The polls are all over the place. Do you have a view or are you just watching?
257
Greening’s tough and slightly scary - a bit like an English Nicola Sturgeon. Which is no bad thing IMO.
166
Harris are not the same Harris as before. The old Harris became BMRB. This new Harris has only the name.
Greening doing well. Forthright, lucid and unpatronising. Better than Villiers or Spelman.
re 211 EdP as the plan has only been published today how on earth would the farmer know about it before now?
re 259 The stability of AR is very much based on the stability of its samples. I’m doing a big piece comparing it with YouGov which I hope to have up once we’ve got the data from both tonight’s polls.
249 - Of course I expect the same bitter ire directed at David Cameron wife now rebranded as social action champion that you and a few others directed at Browns wife.
Really, I do.
To do otherwise would by hypocritical, Sal.
256 - Well in that case just leave. You clearly have no interest beyond your own pathetic little partisan positioning anyway, as such you are worthless on a betting site where accuracy is necessary because people back up their ideas with cash not weasel words.
New people are welcome, that welcome is not extended to everyone…
255 / 260 - are you questioning YouGov’s expertise, or their integrity?
Whenever I post a comment criticizing the Yougov dailies, the site breaks for me.
I’m beginning to think maybe Tapestry’s right about Yougov being a front for an EU/Illuminati conspiracy…
Flint is a stroppy, moody b1tch, one of those girlfriends whose face you would love to drive into the pillow until she gasped.
I’ll get a minicab.
230. Andy. Many thanks for replying.
The current polls - YouGov aside - once they have been “Cooked”, suggest the Tories will win a majority but fall short of a a 100+ majority landslide.
But the election campaign hasn’t even started, the tide has all been Labour’s and Brown’s for a while.
I think the tide is starting to turn back again. I remain confident of a Tory majority and can still see a Tory landslide. Hills were going 7/1 Tory seats 375-399 half an hour ago. I’m on! Again!
Now 6/1.
274. :O
re 272 Ash you’re so monomaniacal, are you Peter Kellner? No-one is questioning YouGov’s integrity, but we are certainly questioning their expertise. Peter Kellner could have put our minds at rest when he appeared here. He chose to ignore several well put and polite questions. Draw you own conclusions.
Ash,
YouGov methods have changed radically this year. Since then they have been [even more] are out of line with other polls on Labour scores.
Their internal maths [old and new] has been poured over on here in detail. If you want to dis those who have gone over it with a fine eye, show us the maths, not your blind faith.
On QT. Brown shot by Chilcot.
“YouGov aside - once they have been “Cooked””
Mike. Isn’t this, like many posts I’ve read recently, coming close to implying something about YouGov that is a bit unpleasant?
269. Mike, get on to the Sunday Telegraph and see if they are commisioning an ICM poll for this weekend.
269 - Be interesting to see that!
Easterross - A complaint to the BPC is completely OTT. It is great that we have 10 pollsters, all using different methods. The key is transparency - if a pollster explains their methodology and is open about the data then what is the problem? If you doubt the method, discount the figures. The idea that the BPC can be a police body, beyond these basic expectations, is unrealistic and unproductive. Lets see what the different methodologies produce - election day will tell us who is right.
Brown taking a hammering and the audience lapping it up, all this on Labour territory in West Yorkshire
272 Ash no-one is questioning their integrity. Many of us are questioning their methodology and are concerned that Peter Kellner was neither prepared to explain it nor tell us why suddenly it had been changed after following the previous methodology for some considerable time.
Well the last 10 minutes of BBC1 Question Time haven’t been too good for Brown have they?
re 279 st john if only. But I don’t get your drift.
277 - It’s like being told there’s no Father Christmas, suddenly finding that something you had been led to believe was credible was not found to be so by others.
The trauma is profound!
Hm. Interesting kicking for Brown on Afghanistan.
More evidence of a Narrative Twist?
278 - so are you saying that YouGov, given their excellent record, are not experts in methodology? Or are you questioning their integrity?
273 i think Tapestry might be onto something. After all , Labour supporting Peter Kellner is married to Labour EU Honcho Baroness Ashton who is very close to Brown & recently demanded her own private jet courtesy of you the taxpayer. These people know no shame.
275 - St John, the price with Hill on Tory seats 250-299 has also shortened at the same time.
Newsnight seems to think it’s Friday night and time for Newsnight Review.
Wark’s holding a discussion on concept music albums. Wtf??
280. Ash. I am referring to the polls - other than YouGov - being “Cooked”.
“Cooked” means putting the poll results through Andy Cooke’s calculator, and arriving at a GE seats prediction.
279 indeed. In a Labour-held northern constituency, a round of loud applause for ‘Compulsive liar, not an ounce of truth in his soul’
Wouldn’t have happened in Huntingdon 1997
270 tim, equally I would expect you, as a connoisseur of cabinet level cockups by the Graylings of this world, to weigh in on the subject of the Great Ed Balls Government by Death Threat Text Message initiative, on which I don’t think we know your views at all.
except i wouldn’t expect that because i don’t do faux naivete. And nor should you
Glad to see that the rumour was wrong. 3% with Yougov is disturbing. 13% with AR is very encouraging.
The pollsters are pretty much in agreement about the Conseratives’s share - about 38%.
They disagree markedly about Labour’s share. Yougov/BPIX rate them at 32-35%, AR at 26%, the rest at around 31%.
My guess is that in any case, on polling day, many people who currently say they’ll vote UKIP or BNP, will back the Conservatives, at least in marginal seats.
280 - Oh dear, dearie me.
“Cooked” means the polling figures are put through Andy Cooke’s prediction model.
270.tim, you can call me whatever you like in the certain knowledge it will amount to a badger’s f@rt in the distant woods.
Bad smell.
No impact on me.
293 - apologies. I misread your post.
280
Ash you really really need to get up to speed if you are going to comment on here. You are just making a fool of yourself.
‘cooked’ refers to putting the poll results through Andy Cooke’s seat calculator. It has the same meaning as ‘Baxtered’ just using a different method.
Your blind support for Yougov no matter what is leading you to make very silly mistakes.
294 as i said earlier - people loathe Brown and his lies.
274: she’s fiesty for sure.
I think she’s hotter when she’s angry. Reminds me of the Labour student firebrand I was seeing at university - fun while it lasted.
It seems to me that YouGov is an outLIAR.
An Angus Reid audience on QT tonight, a much more believable representation of the general mood than the recent LHQ audiences. Dewsbury aswell..
When the Burghers of Dewsbury are so clearly on the side of Kelvin Mackenzie I can’t believe Labour will poll 34.
Go Kelvin!! lol.
Front pages
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Newspaper-Front-Pages-Friday-March-12-2010/Media-Gallery/201003215572203?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15572203_Newspaper_Front_Pages_Friday_March_12%2C_2010
I have to say the comment the women made about buying her son decent army equipment for his 18th Birthday for his tour of Afghanistan because what the Government provided was so rubbish was probably the most cutting I have ever heard on the programme.
295 - You want my views on Balls?
I’ll get moderated, but a prick employing a prick in an anti bullying campaign just confirms the status of the former.
280/293 Ash: it is heart warming that despite your 110% commitment to digging the hole in which you find yourself deeper, you are prepared to take time off to shoot yourself in the foot.
Please keep posting.
305. The FEMALE Burghers of Dewsbury, note.
This is encouraging for Tories. Women are said to be the crucial swing voters; if this audience is anything to go by - in Yorkshire! - then Tories should prosper.
268 ‘EdP as the plan has only been published today how on earth would the farmer know about it before now?’
Well, at this early stage one would have expected initial surveys to have been carried out. Even an absentee farmer as detached from the land as tim would have caught wind of something going on around his property.
Wanna beat Balls?
http://www.beatballs.co.uk/main/
Initial fund-raising target was £1 000. That was achieved pretty quickly.
If you want a good laugh. Just noticed this on the Beeb’s website. It purports to be an election timetable. Every single date they have in it is wrong.
And to think I pay over £130 a year for this crap.
280 Ash, you’re whining.
At best.
At worst you are smearing Mr S.
Kellner and Mike must be on pretty good terms for him to come on here.
I suspect you are desperate to believe YouGov and are trying to find any basis on which to do so.
But lay off the host.
It’s obviously Pickles & Hague Yorkshire, rather than Red Yorkshire.
275 “I think the tide is starting to turn back again”
I’m more and more inclined to the view that hte cool-graph-theory from a few threads back is a spot on analysis of what constitutes the baseline for the parties. The actual poll position can go up and down around that baseline depending on events and what the parties do but they get pulled back to it like gravity when the event /action stops.
So i think Labour are a little above their baseline because of the continuing cuts = double dip recession pressure but would drop back as soon as it stopped.
The Tories were below their baseline for a while through actively shooting themselves in the foot for weeks but now they appear to have stopped doing that for a bit they are naturally drifting back up to the “mood” baseline again.
Jo Swinson: wash you hair and get a bra that fits you; point of this post: lib dems are in trouble
What I’d like to see from YouGov is a tabulation of intention to vote for party X against Party ID. Harris yesterday showed a loss of 1 in 4 2005 Labour voters, ICM showed 31% of 2005 Labour voters going elsewhere, the losses not matched by transfers from Lib Dems & others. These polls and others show high levels of 2005 voter retention by Conservatives with reasonable gains of both 2005 Labour and Lib Dem voters.
I’ve no doubt YouGov are trying to represent a true picture but where are the voters coming from to make up the lost 2005 ones in addition to Lib Dem/disloyal returnees? People who stopped voting in 2001? New voters? I’d be a lot more comfortable with them if I could see that.
Between ARPO, unproven in UK, and YouGov, with different methodolgy from that used in 2005, I am unsure so tend to go towards the ones showing 7-10% leads with Labour at/below 31%. But its often the polls that seemingly are out of step that show the truer position, and in that case which one is it?
“Prescott on Tory lead being cut to just 3 points”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eJZ9imJ-cc
315 - can you point to where I’ve “layed on” the host? Don’t make things up. I’m defending the pollster with the best recent track record in the UK - YouGov.
Some posts come close to questioning their integrity, and many question their expertise. Both are out of order.
re 289 oh for God’s sake Ash, turn the bloody record over if you want to be taken at all seriously. We’ve told you about YouGov. Your posts have told us that you have the mental capacity of a 2 year old.
Flint is a hectoring witch.
Greening is good, but could do with loosing the Yvette Cooper hairdo
316. Dewsbury and Northallerton have little in common, except I have been to both.
286. Chris A. The QT audience don’t seem to believe Brown’s assertion to the Chilcot Enquiry that he has provided adequate funding to the troops at all times.
319 - I’m amazed he can count to 3.
Caroline has a better hair-do than Justine
Yougov are a public company with an impecable international reputation yet so called experts on this site believe they would either deliberately produce misleading polls for spurious political reasons or worse be so incompetent that their results are nonsensical.
At one time this site had some of the finest poll watchers around but their desires have clouded their judgement.
re 324 perceptive lot those Yorkshire women, eh?
307 ‘Thieves who think they’re above the law’ headline Re. the three troughing MPs, in the Daily Mail looks controversial!
The Gordon Brown and his Socialist Party are not popular on Question Time.
Labour’s ‘Cashcroft’ hypocracy has ignited popular anger. As the campaign goes on, I see Labour in the low 20s.
I predict GE: Lab 26%, Con 42%, Lib 18%.
The Ashcroft saga takes a new twist.
According to a Lady on QT, It’s Baroness Ashcroft now!
316 - It’s Dewsbury.
If you’ve ever been to Dewsbury you will know it’s not a lot like Richmond other than a lot of the buildings being made of stone.
re 326 Roger you can no doubt provide the links to the posts which makes those claims.
Baroness Ashton - the highest paid female politician in the World and she has never faced a single voter. LOL!
308, currystar. I loath Brown as much as the next man, however he cannot be blamed for not providing decent personal kit to the troops in Ganners,
The basic soldier has never been better equipped. It took too long to get to that state but it is now true. Troops will always want something different and “gucci” when I was in, it was SAS smocks being privately purchased, now it is “north face” and multi cam kit. Always happened always will.
This does not exonerate him for his despicable underfunding of major projects such as the Helicopter fleet though.
First of 2 results tonight
Wellingborough Redwell West Conservative hold
Con 570 57,2%
Lab 186 18.7%
BNP. 84 8.4%
LDem 72 7.2%
EngDem 62 6.2%
Gre. 23 2.3%
Previous result byelection March 2008
Con 665 61.0%
BNP 177 16.2%
Lab 169 15.5%
LDem 40 3.7%
UKIP 39 3.6%
Green 37 3.4%
330 - should be a headline in the Sun about his sex-change soon.
What are the current odds on Dewsbury going back into the blue column?
I’m gonna stick a few pennies on.
318 I think that Labour have lost a lot of people who voted for them in 2005, but picked up either non-voters, or people who voted Lib Dem, in that year.
Labour’s problem is that if they pick up non-voters, they’ll be located in seats with the lowest turnouts - i.e. seats that are safe for Labour.
On the polls, it’s silly to pick on either AR or Yougov. Each is producing results for Labour that diverge from the mean, and it’s clearly down to weightings in either case. But, we won’t know who’s right till polling day (and both may be wrong).
Women rule the country? - Yvette Cooper for PM?
Sweet baby Jesus, Kelvin Mackenzie is thinking AWS is a good idea
314-ChrisA- The link doesn’t work.
Well done Roger, you give a stirling defence of Baroness Ashton’s Husband’s company. You know, Baroness Ashton, appointed for the top job by Gordon Brown. Made a life peer by Tony Blair.
Wow. Baroness Ashton has been had all the goodies lavished on her. I am sure she deserves them but I just cant think what she did. Now what could it be? I just cant think…
Jo Swinson on QT dreadful. Justine Greening looks like cabinet material.
Evening all.
Your exam question this evening is to consider the following two sets of numbers:
6 6 6 6 6 2 7 5 6 6 5 5 4 5 3
12 7 9 5 4 10 5 8 9 2 8 7 13
——————
Done that?
The first set is the lead in all YouGov polls since 19th Feb. The second set is the lead in all other polls, from several different pollsters using different methodologies, since 19 Feb (the ‘2′ is BPIX). All as listed by Anthony Wells on UKPR.
They all purport to measure the same thing, and to be honest I can’t see that much has changed during this period politically; I don’t think Ashcroft is a big deal, and in any case there doesn’t seem much of a systematic change during the period.
My own view is that we are probably looking at noisy samples, with some systematic factor in YouGov which boosts Labour slightly at the expense of the LibDems, and the underlying lead in the region of 8 points.
I also think it is very likely that there is a big regional variation in swing, as SeanT postulates at 76.
All this is of course subjective; but so is politics, and even more so betting on politics.
Faîtes vos jeux, messieurs dames.
209 Wayne, people don’t have to be enthusiastic, they just have to vote. Someone recently said to me “This lot’ve been doing a pretty good job, they might as well carry on”.
“Flint is a hectoring witch.”
She’d make a great dominatrix
UK Polling Report - is that connected (ahem) with Ms Span’s body (ahem) o’ work?
re 340 here’s the URL then http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8496591.stm
338 - I wonder if it would be possible to use the AR panel data and use the Yougov weighting sand do the same with the YG data use the AR wieghtings and see what we get?
Chris @ 342 - I totally agree; Jo Swinson looked like some kind of student.
Chuck out Grayling, bring in Greening.
Beautiful building in Dewsbury that, is it a theatre?
I think the key difference between YouGov and Angus Reid is that while YouGov are a genuine British pollster, Angus Reid are in fact an elaborate practical joke at Mike’s expense.
Consider the evidence:
- This week they sent me multiple e-mails asking me to take part in a survey that I’d already completed.
- They wanted to know my opinion of the quality of service delivered by the government of Afghanistan, according to a large number of criteria, with no option for “Don’t know”.
- They asked me if I found inspiration shopping at Tesco’s.
- Their findings read like a parody of Mike’s over-the-top Brown-dissing.
- Their name is ARS(E).
348 - dearie me, my typing is getting worse.
347-Thanks.
Well that was the Conservatives best Question Time this week, wasn’t it?
I put this narrowing of the Tory lead over the winter months down to the chocolate coloured coat I’ve been wearing. When I bought it, I thought it was olive, but in the daylight it’s definitely brown. I didn’t want to buy another coat because I thought this would look extravagant at time when we are supposed to be tightening our belts.
But I now tire of brown - it doesn’t go with blue trousers, and is too utilitarian with black. I’ve spotted a ink blue number which I think will do the trick. It isn’t too warm for the time of year, and I feel convinced this will be enough for the Tories to turn the corner. I’m going to get this game-changer on Saturday and thought it best to advise all interest parties of my intentions.
It is a disgrace that soldiers get such basic kit that they have to buy their own, worse then as it costs so much they have to insure it, this is all on very low wages.
week should be year.
337 Beware the Independent candidate an ex Conservative councillor .
Looking good from Angus Reid.
Mike, you’ll have some explaining to do if their final polls are much off the final result in May!
350 - No, it’s the Town Hall
349 - Greening isn’t a patch on Warsi but both are better than Grayling.
326. Roger. Care for a wager about YouGov’s accuracy at predicting Labour’s % share at the next GE?
If Labour get more than or equal to YouGov’s % prediction in their final daily tracker poll before the GE, you win. If Labour’s % is less then I win. £50 - or £100 - at Evens? You choose the stake.
Are we on?
So anyway Tim / Gobble - Any chance of letting us know the top few positive reasons for voting Labour at the next General Election.
I hope your failure to answer the question thus far isn’t due to the fact that;
A) There aren’t any.
B) You’re dullards and don’t understand the question in the first place
334 - indeed ventile windproof smocks are now standard issue I believe. The fact is, soldiers will always want something a bit different and perceived to be better, and complaining about issue kit not being good enough is perhaps a good way to sneak it onto the credit card in front of the mrs.
Agree with you re the helicopters.
Dewsbury - Labour have a notional 4 000 majority.
Boundary changes: Major. The old Dewsbury constituency was relatively tightly drawn around Dewsbury and was almost entirely urban. The new seat loses the town of Heckmondwike to Batley and Spen, while gaining the large rural wards of Kirkburton and Denby Dale to the South from Wakefield.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/11/but-pbangus-reid-has-the-gap-widening-to-13-points/comment-page-3/#comment-1470912
Rubbishing AR (because you don’t like the results they give) is as silly as rubbishing Yougov (for the same reason) prior to 2005.
326. “Yougov are a public company with an impecable international reputation yet so called experts on this site believe they would either deliberately produce misleading polls for spurious political reasons or worse be so incompetent that their results are nonsensical.”
That is a thin argument. NASA put men on the moon in the days when slide rules were still in use, yet launched the Hubble telescope with elementary faults arising from imperial/metric conversion mistakes which made it effectively useless. No institution is too big or too grand or too clever to screw up.
335. Marks Senior’s percentages for 2008 add up tpo 103.4%.
364 – Tabman, may I ask if you have ever served with the armed forces, TA etc or if you have any very close relatives that might have.
The YouGov poll is absolutely desperate for the Tories. As Anthony Wells has been pointing out, there have now been (I think) five daily polls in a row that have shown the lead below the previous average of six points, so the idea that the trend of a narrowing lead has stalled is now looking distinctly questionable.
The Angus Reid poll is as bonkers as ever. I’m becoming quite fond of it, though, ARS is a sort of 2009 tribute pollster.
334 “I loath Brown as much as the next man, however he cannot be blamed for not providing decent personal kit to the troops in Ganners,”
Yes he can be blamed.
Remember when Tony Blair said “defence chiefs can have what they want”? When they asked for helicopters, he said, well they cant have that. Then Gordon Brown cut the helicopter budget.
Compare that to the money Brown has splashed on the NHS 110Billion - or the 11 Billion he is looking to splash before the election - to the 40Billion odd spent on debt interest.
Labour’s policy of Unilateral Disarmament didnt stop when Micheal Foot resigned.
Well, I’ve just popped back from my local in Datchet where I had a chat with a lot of the regulars, and you can take it from me that Angus Reid is far more in tune with the zeitgeist - if anything it’s being generous to Labour! The bar was electrified with disgust about Labour MPs up before the Beak; that poor, simple chap being hounded to death by feral youths; Byrne and Darling’s disarray over taxation policy. And this, compared to recent evenings, was a relatively good sounding for Labour!
342 - “Justine Greening looks like cabinet material.”
I thought she was a bit wooden, too.
Why am I blocked?
Dacorum DC Adeyfield West Conservative hold
Con 486
Lab 429
LD. 362
BNP 203
2007 result Lab 518/502 Con 508/481 LDem 200/178
369 - yes
360 - It’s stunning, although all across the North there was a Town Hall building competition in the 19th century that was fantastic, and most now licensed for civil partnerships..
FFS Bolton Town Hall would make a Parliament building in most times and places.
http://www.webbaviation.co.uk/bolton/bolton-town-hall-757.jpg
370 That just proves my point at 366.
374 - “Dacorum DC Adeyfield West” what a great name - where is it
374 Seems okay.
Dewsbury town hall:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dewsbury_Town_Hall.jpg
Sayeeda Warsi was the Conservative candidate there in in 2005. I was surprised she wasn’t on tonight.
368 You are correct though they were not my percentages .
A big day (perhaps a decisive day) for Obamacare today:
Obamacare took two serious blows today; 1) the Senate parliamentarian said that Obama would have to pass the Senate bill into law before the Senate could even consider a reconciliation bill from the House, and 2) the House Democratic leadership has (at least for now) abandoned efforts to accommodate the demands of the Stupak pro-life Democrats who had supported the original House bill.
So what is the end game? This is what supposedly will happen next week: 1) the House will craft an actual bill matching the Senate bill, plus a reconciliation bill, by Monday or Tuesday, 2) the real armtwisting will begin in an effort to actually pass it before the Easter recess, and 3) the Democrats have to hope that they can pick up votes by sheer momentum, votes that just aren’t there today.
That’s the whole ball game.
well goodnight from me, let the labour rabble waffle on shall we.
378. Just East of Dulce.
Hello, I would like to join in….
The Crown Prosecution Service is expected to announce whether a sixth politician will face charges over expenses claims.
It has been reported that the politician is Labour peer Baroness Uddin, who is alleged to have wrongly claimed £100,000 of expenses.
The CPS is due to reveal their decision in the morning.
…
Meanwhile, police have begun an enquiry into a fifth Labour MP, Harry Cohen, over his expenses. … Sky News understands the CPS announcement does not relate to Mr Cohen because the Metropolitan Police have yet to hand over his file to the CPS.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/MPs-Expenses-Another-Politician-Could-Be-Prosecuted-Over-Expenses-Scandal/Article/201003215571969?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_2&lid=ARTICLE_15571969_MPs_Expenses%3A_Another_Politician_Could_Be_Prosecuted_Over_Expenses_Scandal
37, and what has your post to do with what I wrote. Do not make me defend Brown, it makes me feel unclean. The fact is the personal issue of kit that the troops now get is better than it has ever been. Squaddies are kit tarts, they will always, always buy other stuff because they like to not need to.
Helicopters as I have already stated are another matter.
384. Dulce et Dacorum West
373.Did you really? Or are you joking? Jo Swinnson was pretty auwful, very wishy-washy. Flint looks ambitious, untrustworthy, Greening chimed with the audience in a way that few Tory spokesman have done on QT this year.
Monty Don - “we are all to blame for the Bulger killing”….thanks Monty back to the gardening me thinks.
The by election results tonight are interesting. When the tory lead was in the teens with all polling firms they were regularly getting stuffed in by elections, to much incredulity on Conhome. Now the lead in the polls in down to 3% with Yougov they are doing better in real elections. Odd
386, should be for 371, jimeno
378 Hemel Hempstead outskirts .
334 Don as a recently retired serviceman with two Sons serving ( 1 in Helmand ) I agree that kit is better now than it has ever been. But there are still shortages of this ‘better kit’ and it is why Servicemen are still handing money over at Silvermans etc which is what I suspect the woman on QT did for her Son.
Her remark, and the gasps of incredulity from the audience has added to the belief that Gordon Brown starved the Forces whilst Chancellor, failed to finance the Helicopter fleet and was complicite in the deaths of so many young men and women.
It took a woman to put so eloquently that the main cause of death and injury in Iraq and ‘Ganners has been inadequate or insufficient equipment and a lack of training and not direct contact with the enemy. Gordon Brown lied at Chilcott ( see Cathy Newman Channel 4 ) and his parsimony toward those he now uses as political props saw the death of 14 brave men in the Nimrod death trap, hundreds killed and maimed in unarmoured vehicles and some very good friends of mine in Land Rovers designed for the Falls Road. How that man lives with himself is beyond me.
He will be defeated. The QT audience this evening showed the contempt that Gordon Brown and this Government is held even in Betty Boothroyds constituency. AR is right.
377. No, Sean, what’ll ‘prove’ your point is if the election result is in line with what Angus Reid is showing. For now, it’s an opinion. My own opinion that the Angus Reid figures are bonkers is fairly restrained compared to the the sustained hatchet job that’s been going in an to destroy the credibility of YouGov’s figures.
As someone pointed out the other day, I don’t recall much restraint on these pages when YouGov and Mori were predicting different results in the London mayoral race - YouGov had the track record, so had to be right. How times change.
Am I right that someone said ARS had a panel of 5,000 whereas YouGov have one of 300,000? is that true?
388 Wood … material for making a cabinet …. I’ll get me coat.
Here is a graph of Labour’s NHS funding - note the acceleration in 2010:
http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/downchart_ukgs.php?chart=00-total&view=1&year=&state=UK
Compare with the feeble defence spending - remember we have been at war since 2001.
http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/downchart_ukgs.php?chart=31-total&view=1&year=&state=UK
Remember Labour’s pathetic line “We have increased helicopter flying hours by 72.3%”
Osborne the weakest link narrative again on the weekly politics.
Can’t shake that one off, the Tory’s.
re 392 even in Betty Boothroyd’s constituency. Eh? I thought it came from Dewsbury tonight and not West Brom?
350 - Pretty sure it was the town hall.
Diane Abbott looks like she’s been neutered, on This Week….the curse of James Kelly quoting her “knowing looks” appears to have done for her.
393 We have a range of leads, 3%, 5%, 7%, 8%, 9%, and 13%. Yougov are at one end, AR at the other.
Your objection to AR seems to be based on nothing more than the fact that it indicates Labour doing badly.
PatrickR, I can only agree with you on the major items of equipment such as vehicles/helicopters.
I stand by what I say about personal equipment. I was a scaley and even back when I was in people were running around dressed like robo cop with personally purchased kit. The Army will never issue the “best” kit to everybody because not everybody needs it. Those that do, should have it, those that don’t tend to buy it to look like those that do.
Will leave it at that for now if that’s okay, as it’s not particularly relevant to the thread.
400 Diane Abbot is behaving herself indeed.
Could Labour learn to behave themselves? No. Dont be taken in. Once they feel they have the upper hand, they are merciless,,.
Mike: I’m guessing that you very intentionally dropped the You Gov poll first, gave people like Gabble five minutes to get excited, and then dropped the Angus Reid like a ton of bricks… very mischievous!
398 Chris
Mea culpa, you are right and I have already removed the send button from my keyboard.
400. “Diane Abbott looks like she’s been neutered, on This Week….the curse of James Kelly quoting her “knowing looks” appears to have done for her.”
No, I think it’s the shock of constantly recalling those damning quotes about David Cameron’s bad treatment of the ‘little people’. That one from Jeff Randall - brutal stuff.
350 tim
Beautiful building in Dewsbury that, is it a theatre?
It was. It is now a mosque.
Pity Warsi didn’t refuse the peerage. She’d be a shoo-in for Dewsbury this election.
398 - Betty was FROM Dewsbury
398. Chris A. I was surprised at the Dewsbury link to Betty Boothroyd on QT. Apparently she was born in Dewsbury - according to wikipedia.
She was a hot and broody mixture. Reference - St.John’s 1st Xmas Crossword.
Here’s something to amuse the Scottish Nationalist night shift, on LabourHome:
http://www.labourhome.org/?p=10667
It’s Dis-United Kingdom..Hidden agenda or paranoia? - written by redrag
So we now have 4 polls with an average of an 8 point lead.
394 The AR panel is much larger than 5,000 though nowhere near the 300,000 that Yougov claim . I still maintain that with such a large panel and knowing thhe Party ID’s and likely response rates for each party Yougov should be able to survey a sample of their panel that will give a response very close to the weightings they weight to . I cannot comprehend why poll after poll they vastly oversample males over 55 and people with a Conservative ID and undersample in every poll people with a LibDem Party ID . This leads them to have to do substantial adjustments in their weighting peocess instead of relatively minor fine tuning . This indicates to me that a substantial number of their 300,000 panel are dormant accounts .
401. “Your objection to AR seems to be based on nothing more than the fact that it indicates Labour doing badly.”
On what basis do you deduce that? To save you the trouble - no it’s not.
Incidentally, the ICM lead of 9% is already out of date when you bear in mind the recent further narrowing that YouGov seem to have been picking up over the last few days.
411 For once, I got asked a voting intention question by Yougov this week.
So is it possible for YouGov to be wrong? I dont know.
I was greatly impressed with YouGov previously - but this year, something changed. The weighting changed.
Is it possible for a company to publish dodgy numbers? Why? What’s in it for them? I dont know but I do remember a company called Enron.
407 - You have a dispute over whether it’s the Town Hall on your hands.
Of course Warsi would be a shoo in, but Camerons great mistake was putting her in the Lords rather than Henley on Thames.
414. Sean, there’s your cue. I trust you’re going to be consistent.
406.But not one alleged phyical bullying. Still waiting for even one article saying he had engaged in such things. Six of one and half a dozen of the other indeed. tut tut.
Struggling to work out which 20 seats Salmond was talking about, when he claimed it was a realistic ambition at the coming GE for the SNP. Do you have idea which they are?
410 AnneJGP
How fabulous! - but an odd thread on Labour Home. Sounds much more suited to a blue site.
Off thread, Obama’s approval rate is 42% +ve versus 58% -ve
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Anyone who recalls Betty’s voice would be pretty sure she’s from the West Riding.
YouGov has the track record - in 2005 it caried out 15 polls in the final two months (1 every 4 days) - all of them were within =/- 3% of final result.
Conservatives - in 10 of the 15 the Conservatives share was within 1 point of the outcome, 3 within 2 points and 2 within 3 points (and all those 5 cases it was on the upside)
Labour - in 15 of the 15 the Labour share was within 1 point of outcome.
Lib Dems - in 10 of 15 Lib Dem share was within 1 point of outcome, another 4 within 2 points and final 1 within 3 points.
As they say in selling investments “past performance is not a guarantee of future performance” but to dismiss YouGov because weightings look wrong is not very sensible.
Saying that they did change to voter ID post 2005 and their procedure in getting a representative sample for daily polling is different from that adopted for stand alone polls in 2005.
Re tonight’s Polls
For those of you with questions about the AR credentials and methodology do look up their website - Springboard UK - which gives lots of info so you can judge for yourselves.
I have completed two AR surveys and I found the AR questions precisely targetted and almost entirely political. By comparison, You Gov surveys I have taken part in have been lengthy and somewhat irrelevant with just a few political questions.
415 Sayeeda was appointed to the Lords in October 2007. How on earth was she supposed to fight the Henley by-election when Boris didn’t relinquish his seat until he became London Mayor in May 2008?
Presumably you don’t think Cameron made a mistake in elevating her into the Shadow Cabinet?
393 James Kely. “I don’t recall much restraint on these pages when YouGov and Mori were predicting different results in the London mayoral race - YouGov had the track record, so had to be right. How times change.”
Are you being willfully obtuse?
HOW MANY MORE TIMES DO WE HAVE TO TELL YOU!
YouGov changed their methodology from the one used in the London mayoral race. That’s what we have been arguing about thread after thread - the change in weightings, and their effects.
“Neither do ARPO, so your “argument” fails. ” —– the point is that the YG methodology is unproven. Simply saying ’so is the AR one’ is no defence. The point previously mad was that YG were some proven ‘gold standard’ - you have just admitted that based on its current methodology - it is not.
Given that we have seen 3 labour MPs desperately trying not to appear in the dock today (oh and a tory peer) I am not surprised that we see high numbers of ‘others’.
434 - YouGov aren’t manufacturing results.
They’ve made a methodology change, to try and adjust for a perceived lack of Labour respondents/shy labour voter effect.
We’ll find out in 8 weeks time, if they were right too, and if their adjustment was on the right level.
415 tim
You have a dispute over whether it’s the Town Hall on your hands.
Thr first sentence of my post was weighted with same level of certainty as my conviction that Maggie anf Ronnie won the Cold War.
Are you saying I have an error with my weightings?
425 was for 414, not 434.
Here’s my slogan for the Sarah Brown baiting Tories on here who convince themselves of the purity of their position.
Disposable Camera On
Disposable Camera Off
ANUS REID MUST DO THERE POLLING IN MAYFAIR,LOL WHAT A JOKE.
418 oldnat, I rather suspect that there are 2 posters using variants of the screen name redrag/Red Rag. The various postings sound so different in tone; I’m not sure that this one is genuinely Labour-minded.
Clumsy of Dianne Abbott to try to elide “Tory” General Dannatt with the Army Chiefs who gave evidence at Chilcot - and criticised Brown.
Portillo corrected her on this but was far too easy on her.
uh oh
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7423138/Europes-banks-brace-for-UK-debt-crisis.html
“UniCredit has alerted investors in a client note that Britain is at serious risk of a bond market and sterling debacle and faces even more intractable budget woes than Greece.”
no more boom and bust indeed
Thanks Labour
417. “But not one alleged phyical bullying.”
The extraordinary thing is that not only did I not originally suggest that Cameron had committed physical bullying, I didn’t even use the word bullying at all. The revelations in those quotes were as eye-opening for me as they were devastating for you, I can assure you.
Struggling to work out which 20 seats Salmond was talking about, when he claimed it was a realistic ambition at the coming GE for the SNP. Do you have idea which they are?
Chris, don’t let it go to your head, but I think it may be just about possible for you to do the UNS calculations yourself without me holding your hand. From memory, the SNP would have to be a few points ahead of Labour in the popular vote to win twenty seats, which was always going to be a tall order, but there was never any mystery about what those seats would be if they pulled it off.
429.Thanks for that intelligent contribution.
429 - They are not polling in Mayfair. If they were, Labour would struggle to get 2% there, let alone 26%
431 - I got the impression she was embarrassed by the ignorant gobs on her own benches who used Dannatt as an excuse to simplify the issue.
424. “Are you being willfully obtuse?
HOW MANY MORE TIMES DO WE HAVE TO TELL YOU!
YouGov changed their methodology from the one used in the London mayoral race. That’s what we have been arguing about thread after thread - the change in weightings, and their effects.”
This is truly desperate stuff. As I understand it, YouGov have always constantly tweaked their methodology, so the idea that we’re effectively dealing with a new pollster and that all past history can be wiped out is pushing it a bit.
I’m afraid there are quite a few people in denial about the reality of an evaporating Tory lead.
429. jojo. I think you are heartless there in your reference to PB’s favourite pollster.
430 AnneJGP
“genuinely Labour-minded” isn’t an easy concept for me to grasp as a contradiction to the Tories.
Dodgy backroom deals with businessmen, fixing the media by manipulating advertising budgets, pally with criminals - all the things I was brought up to think of as Tory, and all standard practice for Labour in the West of Scotland.
428 - Tim glad you’re still around.
Have you had a chance to come up with the list of positive reasons for voting Labour yet?
I though it might be interesting to compare the numbers of seats in which each party is the favourite in the individual constituencies with the spreads market. I was surprised how close the figures are.
If the favourite wins each seat on Betfair we have:
CON 341, LAB 220, LIB 56, SMP 9, Ind 1, Speaker 1
435 TSE
Mayfair is the preferred location for hedge funds. As shorting the pound seems to be their preferred method of accumulating speculative wealth, the tactical vote for Labour may be considerably higher than 26%.
442 - Ah yes. I need to revisit Mayfair soonish.
436. tim. I read it the other way. That Abbott was trying to excuse the PLP barracking, on the grounds that Dannatt had turned out to be a Tory; so it was understandable that her fellow MPs might be “confused” as to the political affiliations of other Army Chiefs.
I think it was a clumsy attempt to justify bad behaviour by some members of the PLP.
Looking back at the macro-competence graph and squinting it looks to me like the Tory lowpoint between 1992 and 1997 is the lowest lowpoint of both parties - until now.
One worrying factor about AR is the comparitively large number of posters on here who seem to contribute to their polls. From memory, I have seen about 7 or 8 people in the past few days who say they have completed an AR poll, whereas there are very few who post saying they have completed polls for YouGov for instance.
Considering roughly 80% of posters here appear to be anti-Labour, it is a concern as to where they get their sample base from.
FWIW I expect the GE result to be pretty close to the current AR figures, but that is becuase I expect a 4 or 5 point increase in Conservative support over the next few weeks due to the budget, the MP expenses court cases and the Q1 figures released in April.
However, just because their current figures might be close to the actual result, it does not make them accurate at this moment in time.
433.Just for James “I want to break free” Kelly. Since even you have no idea which 20 seats Salmond is on about, I’ll take it that the realistic SNP ambition is somewhat different to what your leader stated.
On the issue of bullying…
word of warning, I know that there is a lot macho talk about Brown being more attractive as a bully, and with Prescott as a guide!
But take it from me, its not going to win the female vote.
by ChristinaD February 26th, 2010 at 1:27 am
I don’t know anyone who wants a PM to physically assault members of staff. A strong leader, yes, who argues his point with his intellectual equals, and who keeps on banging heads together until the government he leads does the right thing. But bullying secretaries is a vote winner? go figure.
by chris_g00 February 26th, 2010 at 1:32 am
“…but I suspect the public knows that with a choice between him and Cameron it’s six of one and half a dozen of the other. Besides which, far far more is at stake in the election than the party leaders’ treatment of underlings.
by James Kelly February 26th, 2010 at 1:33 am
441 - Have you devised a method of downloading the odds on the whole of Betfairs constituency market or did you go in to each seat market individually.
If the answer is the former, you may have some new friends.
444. And in addition, an attempt on Abbott’s part to undermine the evidence of those Army Chiefs - against Brown.
I think the ICM poll sowing a 9% lead is very likely to be spot on.
Mark Senior March 12th, 2010 at 12:03 am
I, too, suspect YouGov have a panel problem. The volume of polling will simply exacerbate an aging and delinquent panel.
Several posters reported from time to time that YouGov had not used them for a voting poll for years but I noticed in the last few days some saying suddenly they have been asked one, two or three times.
That also possibly a negative indicator of the real active and responsive panel that YouGov have got.
So they have bitten off more than they can chew and they know it, so they get the lopsided samples and have to correct massively.
At the same time they are using basically deformed proportions for previous vote. They may not also have recognised a serious shift which also distorts results from their formulae - such as those changes reported in recent social attitude surveys. Indeed, they are moving in the opposite direction to those results.
So there is a devil’s brew of potential needs to statistically ‘treat’ raw data to correct problems elsewhere, leading to the need for other corrections and so on. When that happens chaos is only a step away.
If even part of this is right it is a major failing for a polling company.
All pollsters are only as good as their last poll. That includes AR and all the rest. But YouGov seem to be working hard to be the odd one out.
446. Where Sean might have a limited point is that, given YouGov’s track record for accuracy (even in its infancy) it would be a mistake to criticise Angus Reid simply for being an internet pollster and for having a relatively limited panel. It’s in other areas of their methodology that they seem to be going astray.
Thank goodness the polls are giving different results. I like to back my judgement. If the polls become too accurate the whole exercise becomes mechanical.
Tim. I can download the odds of the whole of the Betfair market in a few seconds. I’d love some new friends.
@415:
There’s nothing about being a peer that precludes her being Home Sec, surely?
what I hear being said about this awkward business simply cannot be true, can it? That Number 10 is desperate to stop the Unite strike causing havoc for air passengers. And that certain people within Unite are putting pressure on the union’s section dealing with the cabin crew’s potential strike to just get a deal quickly ahead of the election to avoid embarrassment. That in recent days is what the overtures from the union to management in ongoing talks were about, but then the pesky BA management dared to turn them down (although let’s see). Couldn’t Labour do without a strike at the country’s biggest airline organised by the union which is funding the party’s election campaign and whose political department head is so close to the Prime Minister?
But I’m sure there’s a straightforward explanation for all this. Charlie Whelan is probably just so busy clarifying the situation at Unite and dispelling unfair misconceptions about his union’s planned strike that he doesn’t have time to comment.
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2010/03/12/whelans-baffling-silence-on-his-unions-strike-at-british-airways/
YouGov Methodology
A key test of YouGov’s new methodology would be to ask whether the private polls conducted by the company on behalf of the Conservative Party use the same sampling and weighting methodologies used to provide polls for News International.
We are likely to be told that YouGov cannot comment on the methodologies used for private polls. We may even be told that the objectives and scope of daily polls for media publication differ in such a degree to the requirements of private political party polling that it would be illogical for both sets of polls to follow the same methodology. I would be surprised if YouGov were to confirm that that NI and Con polling methodologies were identical.
So if Anthony Wells or Peter Kellner is listening, maybe we can have a answer to this one.
447. “Just for James “I want to break free” Kelly. Since even you have no idea which 20 seats Salmond is on about, I’ll take it that the realistic SNP ambition is somewhat different to what your leader stated.”
Chris, what I said could hardly have been clearer. A little heads up for future occasions - it’s usually the complete opposite of what you think I’ve said, and this occasion is no exception.
On the Cameron-is-an-unpleasant-bully point, I’m grateful to you for helpfully providing the corroborating evidence that I mentioned nothing about bullying in my original remarks. Ironically, as it turned out I could have done - but good of you to go to all that trouble for me.
@452:
It seems to me that the methodology for the dailies, in being completely new, wasn’t ready for prime time. Rather than beta-testing it on something low key, they decided to make a ridiculous play to dominate the entire election narrative.
It was a risky strategy, and it doesn’t look like the risk has been worth it. If the discussion here is anything to go by, the dailies are *seriously* damaging Yougov’s credibility.
It seems a waste to throw all that hard-earned reputation away because they couldn’t be bothered to test properly.
446 budgie
This worries me too. It seems that half of PB has signed up to do ARS polls. To be fair, we normally get at least one or two doing each YG survey, and a fair smattering of people who report being polled by other pollsters.
Again, it goes down to the question of panel selection, calibration and monitoring. I have an instinctive worry about panel polling for that reason.
Tories like polls which support their prejudices. Never mind that the one poll to do that is the one which is statistically significantly different compared with the others.
One Tory early in this thread suggests complaining to the BPC. He wants the BPC to censure a polling company, which by the very nature of their work we cannot know which result is right. The only ‘proof’ in polling is election day.
If all companies had the same methodologies then they would be useless because they would all make the same mistake. All polls would be ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ and by the same amount.
YouGov has a unique methodology. But is unacceptable to the Tory ideologue because it gives the ‘wrong’ results.
If YouGov has the right methodology we shall only know on polling day. Yet you want to censure it to ‘keep the polls’ (which have different methodologies!) in line… and comfort your prejudices. ‘Keeping the polls in line’ would lead to poorer quality information.
All of which goes to prove that Tories blatantly don’t understand statistics. To them statistics must conform to political agendas.
God help us if they actually did have any influence on the BPC.
439 oldnat, there are some honest people in politics, on all sides of the divides, I’m sure.
Though (not unnaturally) we’ve become so cynical that it’s hard to see how any politician of any party will ever be trusted again.
411. so how big is the AR panel?
Seth It is possible that YouGov are doing the field work for the Tories as they do for BPIX, and ICM do for ComRes, but that others are crunching the data.
Certainly CCHQ must have its own polling gurus?
Personally I don’t put much weight on AR. They are a Canadian company brand new to the British ‘market’.
Unlike a Tory I would not call for censure of a polling company. AR makes the polling richer whether their results end up being way out or exactly right in contrast with the ‘established’ companies.
459 - Well how can they know if they are right until the election?
If they are wrong they will simply say ‘we’re revising’ and they’ll still get business. MORI was bonkers in the London election and they’re still here.
459 Martin Coxall
They DID test daily. Anthony Wells said they ran parallel tests for a long time using old and new methodology, and the results were more or less the same.
I think most of the Yougov abuse is simply because people don’t like the results.
There are genuine questions of methodology - and on occasions where they changed their datasheet from 40% to 39% in headline voting intention, questions about quality control - but vitriol for its own sake is rather embarrassing.
437 James Kelly. I asked the question up thread: “Are you being willfully obtuse?” Thank You for answering it in the affirmative.
“This is truly desperate stuff. As I understand it, YouGov have always constantly tweaked their methodology, so the idea that we’re effectively dealing with a new pollster and that all past history can be wiped out is pushing it a bit.
I’m afraid there are quite a few people in denial about the reality of an evaporating Tory lead.”
The person most in denial is you! YouGov’s change is more than a “tweak” as you well know, and has produced results which are greatly at variance with the other pollsters. There is no conspiracy - just a bit of a gamble by YouGov on new weightings which isn’t coming off.
FWIW, I don’t believe AR’s figures producing a large Tory lead either. The message that I get from the orthodox polls is clear - Hung parliament.
What is likely to happen is that AR and YouGov are miles out. ICM or Populus get the right result (as does DR/MUOTS) and everyone claims to have been right, including Rod when the Tories poll less than they would have done at the precise moment he decides to say swingback started.
459 Martin Coxall
You were right two threads back. Whether errors followed by learned correction is a development chosen by design or accident is debatable. It may well be what businessmen call in retrospect an “emergent strategy”.
@463 RodCrosby March 12th, 2010 at 12:42 am
I’m sure Mike said it was 40,000.
458.If it was that opposite of what I thought you said, then you’d be right more times than not. For the moment though, I’m supporting the ‘underlings’ - those little people whose claims are insignificant in the grand scheme of things. At least in your world.
@467:
A jump in methodology where they’ve gone from weighting Mirror readers by 5% to weighting them by 100% is NOT CREDIBLE.
The new Yougov dailies have their headline figures driven by the weighting not by underlying sentiment. They are not credible, they’re effectively random and next to useless.
I can believe that testing the new methodology on the old datasets appeared to work. However, on the small, unpredictable samples in use for the dailies, it looks like they didn’t test *at all* or they would have noticed that their weightings were going spectacularly awry.
I think that Hanlon’s razor applies here. In a race to get a jump on the election narrative, Yougov have been jaw-droppingly inept.
468. “YouGov’s change is more than a “tweak” as you well know…a bit of a gamble by YouGov on new weightings which isn’t coming off”
See Wibbler at 467 for the repudiation of that point.
But I’m pleased to agree with you that we’re heading towards a hung parliament.
By the way, with a few short posts today I’ve been an “A1 berk” (Richard Nabavi), “obtuse” (Disraeli), “childish” (Antifrank) and “clueless” (GeoffH). Now if there’s one surefire way of knowing that you’ve hit on a sensitive area for the Tories…
Keep it coming lads! It’s always good to know when I’m on the right track.
464 Witan
Difficult to tell from the meagre press coverage of Osborne’s decision to appoint YouGov. It is unclear whether they will do work in addition to Populus or replace the latter entirely. You may well be right that they are just buying access to YouGov’s internet panel and doing the quesitons and analysis in house. What I would be very surprised to hear is that they are buying similar polls to those conducted for News International.
@474:
I find your martyr complex troubling. It may be that the reason people say all these things about you is because they’re true.
472. “If it was that opposite of what I thought you said, then you’d be right more times than not. For the moment though, I’m supporting the ‘underlings’ - those little people whose claims are insignificant in the grand scheme of things. At least in your world.”
Now it’s my turn to need a translator.
Zippy Byrne has really shafted his master in the bunker with his claim that there will be no tax rises from Labour.
First if flies in the face of the Chancellor. Second if there are no tax rises there will have to be massive spending cuts, even more frightening if they hold off for another year or so and then try to cut the deficit by 40% in little more than two years- that is their pledge.
Work it out for yourself. Four years with the first year missed and budgets especially capital and project budgets only effectively changeable after the start of the next year and outputs not met until the year after the year after that. Rather like Chilcot all over again. The numbers move so fast it deceives the eye.
Mind you they would go for an election before the pledge period ran out I suppose, claiming the target was going to be met. They have form on that - child poverty and social mobility being just two.
462 AnneJGP
Indeed there are honest and upright people in all parties - but in any area that is essentially a one party state, don’t bank on any of them getting into elected office!
476. “I find your martyr complex troubling. It may be that the reason people say all these things about you is because they’re true.”
Hmmm. There is of course a rather more plausible explanation - I suspect you’d be even more ‘troubled’ by that one, but take your pick.
@480:
I know I’ve said this before, but it seems like you spend 80% of your time complaining about how beastly everyone is towards you.
Suck it up, big man.
474.Can I add sensitive to the list?
467 Wibbler
Anthony Wells said they ran parallel tests for a long time using old and new methodology, and the results were more or less the same.
Anthony’s post to which you refer accepted that the weightings may be too heavy and that YouGov hoped to reduce them as they gained more experience with the new methods of sampling.
That was a clear signal that even they question whether the methodology is ‘right first time’.
Let’s continue the analysis. We’ll soon see whether the weightings change and what impact any change will have on the headline figures.
If the weightings do change, I wouldn’t want to hazard a public guess as to whether the Con-Lab gaps will widen or close. I might bet on the answer though.
474.My comparing you to Freddie Mercury in the ‘I want to break free’ video was also only a joke. I don’t really think you do the hoovering in womens clothing singing that song.
Just occasionally you might want to reflect why so many people criticise you personally and reflect on that, as well as on them,. That way, you are more likely to win friends and influence people.
478: ‘First if flies in the face of the Chancellor.’
Disagree. Byrne was under instructions from Darling to fire an ‘I’m the boss now’ shot across Gordon and Ed’s bows. There’s a turf war going on. But Darling has got above his station: there’s no way the Labour Party will tolerate a public-sector bonfire without tax cuts. And Gordon and Ed know it. They will prevail.
481. “I know I’ve said this before, but it seems like you spend 80% of your time complaining about how beastly everyone is towards you.”
You have indeed said that before, so much so that it could be said that 80% of your time here seems to be taken up with such tedious jibes about other posters. Although that would be about as accurate as your claim about me.
482. “Can I add sensitive to the list?”
Oh, my dear chap, you must do just whatever makes you feel most comfortable. I can promise you that when I ponder the qualities of the many Tory posters on this site, you fit into a very special category all of your own.
The testing of the changes was with their different method of collecting the info. I think that is a potential problem.
But I’m not too upset about it. As I’ve said before, opinion poll checks and balances don’t vote in general elections.
If the ballot boxes fail to find enough Labour votes, the returning officers won’t add 20 per cent.
LOL
After Liverpool are beaten in France, the headline on the match report is:
It’s Lille savage
Good night all
What I would be very surprised to hear is that they are buying similar polls to those conducted for News International.
by Seth O. Logue March 12th, 2010 at 12:55 am
I am sure you are right. There would be no point, they can read the published polls. They will, as all parties do, want rather more directed data.
On some things I would do a bit of digging but private polling is something all politicos hold very close to their chests.
Angus Reid tables
http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/2010.03.11_Vote_BRI.pdf
I can assure you I spend very little time jibing. It seems to me that you’re very thin skinned.
The problem with you is not that you’re paranoid. You’re the opposite of paranoid. You go through life thinking that people like you. [/Woody Allen]
The thing about the YouGov change in methodology is that it has allowed the media narrative to change. Daily polls showing tiny tory leads, bring out all the old Cameron bashers. Now if Yougov change their weightings significantly again, even though nothing in the countrys mood has changed, the tory lead in their polls will show an increase, the media pressure reverts back to Brown.
Wasn’t 2010 a little late to change weightings to such an extent? Yougov are risking their hard won reputation on this.
The dates on page 3 in the Angus Reid tables don’t seem to match up with the previous voting intention data up at the top - something seems to be wrong. Were there two February ARS surveys?
484. “Just occasionally you might want to reflect why so many people criticise you personally and reflect on that, as well as on them,. That way, you are more likely to win friends and influence people.”
Chris, you know I’m fond of you, so I hope you’ll take this word of advice in the spirit in which it’s intended - stick to the puerile childish stuff. Honestly. It’s for the best. You just can’t seem to pull off ‘thoughtful’, even when you virtually copy and paste an entire post from Casino Royale, as you did there.
If there’s one thing worse than unwittingly sounding like David Brent, it’s being the copycat of a man who unwittingly sounds like David Brent.
487 David Roe
If the ballot boxes fail to find enough Labour votes, the returning officers won’t add 20 per cent.
Quote of the day!
But would it apply to Glenrothes?
With most of the polls (YouGov excepted) indicating that the latest Brown bounce has run out of steam, can anyone give me any good reasons (apart from the fact that local electiosn are currently planned for May 6th) to go for a May 6th election?
I can think of a lot of reasons for him to hang on until June.
The budget.. leave it ten weeks for the expected criticisms to fade away a little.
The MP’s expenses court cases.. again give it more tiem to fade
The expected bad Q1 figures.. again better to allow another month for those to fade a little in the minds of the electorate.
Hope of another bounce in ten weeks time.
25/1 ON seems a ridiculous price for a May election to me.
Sorry, previous link was for headline figures only. The comment about mismatched dates was directed at the PDF I linked to there.
Here are the actual data tables
http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/table_voting05_bri.pdf
and here is the methodology statement
http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/2010-03-11_UK_Method.pdf
492. “I can assure you I spend very little time jibing.”
Well, that’s already jibe number four. If you want that statement to maintain the slightest credibility, you might want to consider stopping at some point in the next year or so.
492.Leave it, he can dish it out but can’t take it, just give him the last word or else you’ll be up all night.
Stark Dawning March 12th, 2010 at 1:07 am
Yes, maybe, but you ignore the simple point that he is talking bolllocks both specifically and generally.
Taxes will rise to fix the fiscal roof whoever wins. And Labour, who want to delay action for at least a year, will have to raise them most as the situation after their dithering year’s spinathon will be horrendous.
Zippy’s line that a few cuts to capital spend - Zippy claims to be cutting more than there is in the 2011-12 allocation announced only at the end of last year - and the proceeds of growth ( where have you heard that before) and falling unemployment, will reduce the deficit by 40% suggest they haven’t got a clue. Or they think we haven’t.
If smear and spin were measured in gold they would be rich beyond avarice, but as the calumnies are just nasty stains on the carpet, they will be broke.
And so will we.
Umm… does anyone have any idea why Clegg is 11/10 in “first to perspire” market on PP? Cameron is 6/4, Brown is 3/1.
Not going to bet on it, but is there a known sweating problem with Clegg? Can’t say I’ve noticed it.
500. “Leave it, he can dish it out but can’t take it”
Ahem…
502.The audience is going to be made up of the former lovers he claimed he’d had in GQ magazine…
AR to 2 decimal places:
Con 38.89%
Lab 25.78%
LD 18.46%
497 - May 6 2010 was always a ridiculous time to go for an election. The councillors will be working hard to get their own votes out. Which party has feck all council base? If the difference between a hung Parliament and a Tory majority comes down to GOTV, Labour are going to be stuffed.
I think Brown just hoped for a miracle. He won’t get one.
501: ‘…the simple point that he is talking bolllocks both specifically and generally.’
You’ll get no disagreement from me about that! But these characters who compose the Labour ‘government’ have long abandoned worrying about national interest. It’s now a bitch fight to see who can win control of the mighty - perhaps invincible - New Labour machine. Who cares about the niceties of post-general-election governance? There’s power and - as we’ve witnessed of late to our horror - a capitulating media to be had. Sod good economics.
Mike’s site survey in an earlier thread was interesting, wasn’t it? I wonder if it is too late to suggest an improvement that lots of internet tools have - the “killfile”.
Using a killfile, you can maintain a list of posters names or email addresses that automatically get ignored.
I think that it would be very useful and save us all a lot of trouble and raised blood-pressure.
What do you think - is it worth suggesting it to Mike?
506. “I think Brown just hoped for a miracle. He won’t get one.”
He won’t need one, the way things are going.
@498 wibbler I can’t see any problems with dates
UK Omni - Mar09 2010 — Vision Critical — 3/10/2010
is shown at the bottom of each data sheet.
508. Mike has permanent bans on certain people already, as I understand it.
505 To two decimal points,an 8.04% swing from the British GE of May 5th,2005-from where I sit,’Ouch!’
NO hard feelings,three terms is long enough for any govt,night all!
512. “NO hard feelings,three terms is long enough for any govt,night all!”
In most circumstances I’d be inclined to agree, but when you look at the nature of the alternative it’s little wonder that people seem to be pulling back from the brink somewhat.
Stark Dawning March 12th, 2010 at 1:32 am
And you will get no argument from me on that. And I will go one stage further and suggest some senior Labour people are passively working to lose the election as the only way to get their mits on the top spot.
498 Kristin
Look at the table in page 3 of this
http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/2010.03.11_Vote_BRI.pdf
It suggests there was a survey done on Feb 16-17 in which headline Con vote was 40. We know it was actually 38. Other figures don’t match too (for example, none of the figures on page 3 has a LD voting intention of 19).
One explanation might be that the Feb 9-10 and Feb 16-17 data was somehow averaged - but I don’t remember that?
Something strange going on, anyway.
511 No James, you misunderstand - this would be your own personal killfile .
So, if you don’t want to read posts from the “BenM” character you could put him (it?) in your killfile. Others would be at liberty to read and laugh at his posts however.
514 ’some senior Labour people are passively working to lose the election’
Good Lord. I hope that’s true and that their success will be nothing short of astonishing.
516. Oh, I see. I think several people already have suggested an ‘ignore’ button, so you might be in luck. I personally don’t think it would work, though - if you put someone on ignore, you’d probably just end up being baffled by a tonne of other posts that respond to that person’s comments.
508. My suggestion was a kind of approval voting, whereby your posting privileges could be increased or decreased depending on how many ticks or crosses other posters thought you deserved.
You could be restricted to one post per thread (of course the mods could still ban people for egregious infractions) or be granted unlimited posts if people thought you worthwhile enough. You would have to earn your privileges in the eyes of your peers.
It would have the added benefit of automatically calculating who was poster of the year…
515 - wibbler, sorry with you now. Those figures surely are just the historical VI figures as per ukpollingreport.
2010-02-17 40 26 18
2010-02-10 38 25 20
518. I think any such system would be quickly abused - you see it on sites likes YouTube where comments that go against the majority opinion are maliciously voted down. It would be a good idea for Poster of the Year, though - the main problem with that vote is that it always turns into a de facto Poster of December, with everyone who made valuable contributions earlier in the year completely forgotten. I don’t think Penny4Them got a single nomination, for instance!
519 Kristin
So are the figures in the second column at the top wrong of this post then?
Sorry, am trying to also finish something else otherwise would check myself!
Not often I get to put my name in a splash
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2889408/Deer-at-Diageo-plant-on-death-roe.html
518 Rod. That’s a good suggestion. It deserves to be developed.
I’ve been pondering my ideal election result, BTW, after asking you for yours last night.
I get:
Cons 0
Lab 0
LD 0
Others 649
Speaker 1
521 - lol looks like it doesn’t it. I just cross checked with UKPR and they match with AR. Mike should have gone to Specsavers.
509 - Opinion polls don’t take into account things like local organisation and getting people to the polling stations.
How do you think he’s going to overcome the lack of local activists and decline in councillor numbers in so many places?
Don’t you agree that going on the same day as the local elections is a strategic error with the additional effort that that will bring?
Kristin/Wibbler
Agreed. Mike’s Feb figures are wrong. AR’s text says “Across Great Britain, 39 per cent of decided voters and leaners (-1 since mid-February) would support the Conservative candidate in their constituency if a General Election were held tomorrow.
The governing Labour Party remains in second place with 26 per cent (=), followed by the Liberal Democrats with 18 per cent (=).”
518 - Problem would be that people could be vindictive against certain people.
The NATS will be smiliong at these latest polls.
The YouGov combined Scottish sample has mysteriously yet to be published in the Scottish Sun, probably because it shows the SNP continuing to advance.
Meanwhile Angus Reid have published a regional breakdown showing them up 8 points to 28 since the last poll giving a party split of
LAB 36 (-3) NAT 28 (+11) TORY 17 (-) LIB 15 (-8)
CHANGES SINCE LAST ELECTION.
Salmond had a crackingly good campaign launch last weekend and the slogan of MORE NATS LESS CUTS may not be subtle but it has a ring of effectiveness.
520. Perhaps, but across many diverse threads I think it would tend to sift out the wheat from the chaff. People who were constantly disruptive or frivolous would soon get the message. Only one post per thread as a sanction, but with the ability to improve themselves…
525. I know what you’re getting at, David, and it’s sometimes said that the main reason why were Labour unexpectedly defeated in the 1970 election was the sheer number of councillors they had lost between 1967-69. But the nature of the campaign is very different now. Also, I firmly believe that holding the two elections on the same day will make a negligible difference to the GE turnout, and therefore a negligible difference to differential turnout between parties. In other words, if lack of councillors is a disadvantage at a GE, it would be whether the election was held on the same day as the locals or not.
521. There were 2 AR polls - on 17 Feb and 19 Feb.
The comparison on the AR document is to the 17 Feb poll.
Mike S’s comparison is to the 19 Feb poll.
Both comparisons are correct.
The only question is why AR is comparing to 17 Feb which is not the most recent poll. I’m not sure but it COULD be that 19 Feb was both a normal poll and a marginals poll so they prefer now to compare to 17 Feb.
But either way both comparisons are correct.
526. Mike S’s Feb figures are not wrong.
See 531 for full explanation.
527. They could, but other fair minded folk might redress the balance, with ticks instead of crosses.
It could be tried experimentally to begin with, without any actual downgrading of privileges, but a warning when you were in the danger zone…
528. “Salmond had a crackingly good campaign launch last weekend and the slogan of MORE NATS LESS CUTS may not be subtle but it has a ring of effectiveness.”
Yes, I think it’s a brilliantly direct slogan! I was very surprised by it because the SNP leadership don’t usually use the term ‘Nat’ - it’s a bit like the Tories embracing the word…well, ‘Tory’.
I also noticed the mysterious absence of an updated subsample aggregate in the Sun! One thing’s for sure - if there was one the SNP would now be several points clear of the Tories.
@531 Mike L March 12th, 2010 at 2:05 am thanks, sincere apologies to OGH re his Eyesight
530 - I just wonder if the councillors will work that bit harder when it is their own seat up for grabs too. You’re probably right in that it the difference will be negligible. But if the poll is as close as some polls suggest, a few seats in the margins could make a whole lot of difference.
I’m not convinced that the nature of the campaign makes much difference though. People still need to get off their arses and vote. Local organisation helps make sure the ID’d supporters do so.
531 Mike L
Thanks - sorry for the trouble!
536. For what it’s worth, in all the elections I’ve been eligible to vote, I’ve been directly canvassed in person just once - that was in the 2003 Holyrood poll. I didn’t get a single knock on the door in 2007, despite living in one of the most marginal constituencies between Labour and the SNP. I’m not complaining, mind you, but it does make me wonder if the nature of campaigning has changed quite a bit over the years. I remember my dad being endlessly pestered by canvassers, which was always entertaining - he refused to tell us who he was voting for, so he certainly wasn’t about to tell them!
Cameron on Alan Titchmarsh show had an audience of 1.7m.
538 - Really?
So it is true that in Scotland, politicians spend more time in internal party disputes than in dealing with constituents. I always assumed it was an exaggeration.
I’m not really in a marginal (as I’ve now found out) but I’ve had two Lib Dems at the door this year already.
Actually, in all my own years of being politically active, I’ve been actively canvassed before all national elections and most locals. Phil Woolas looking at me like I was scum because I had the temerity to say I was a Tory in 1997 has stayed with me ever since.
I’m glad to say that being on the opposite side to Phil Woolas has kept me from voting Labour even when I left the party in the IDS days.
535, 537. No problem!
With due respect to Disraeli, his idea strikes me as chickenshiiiit. Now I’ve seen plenty of krapp comments, and by my lights most of these are unmitigated dreck. BUT occassionally an irritating post is like the sand in the oyster. Not often. BUT often enough to make me disinclined to avert my gaze to sooth what’s left (or right?) of my soul.
And keep in mind, the posters that pisssss of the mass of pbers - tim is classic example - draw oodles of adverse commentary. AND when it’s only kneejerkism (or just jerks) these cri de coeur DO help OGH by driving up his traffic.
Just one reason I suspect he’ll not entertain your suggestion!
Totally OT - two travel questions:
1. Are London department stores open on Sundays?
2. Where can one catch bus from central London to Oxford? Last time I did so (in 2003) believe you could get one (of many) from Victoria Station and/or Marble Arch.
540. David, wouldn’t Phil Woolas have been even more dismayed to realise that he was canvassing a 17-year-old? (If my mental arithmetic is correct!)
On topic. The Tories biggest worry has still to be complacency. My guess is that YouGov are receiving under the table payments from the Tories to scare the sh*t out of Tory voters and make them go to the polls …
544 - Yep. Good maths
543 - The best place to get a bus to Oxford is Victoria Coach Station.
As for the department stores, pretty sure they are but they’ll all have websites.
543 - SSI - If you’re coming over we should arrange a pub PBC visit.
543, DR - that would be great BUT unfortunately the travel info ain’t for yrs truly, but rather for a friend, her sister and mother.
And while these fine ladies have zero objection to a good pub or two (or even more!) very seriously doubt they’ll want to banter re: the ins & outs of swingback!
Thanks muchly for the info - they are staying in Pimlico not far from VS so that will do nicely.
As for the department stores, am trying to talk them into going to one or more (they arrive Saturday and are scheduled to visit Oxford the following Monday) to shop for coats, etc suitable for England’s sunny clime . . . . as opposed to lugging these articles from Seattle & Chicago. Just my way of trying to help the British economy!
549 - I used to work in Pimlico when Dod’s was a little firm.
That’s jolly handy for Victoria but please make sure you let them know the coach station is a little way down the road from the railway station. It’s not far, but good to know it’s not exactly the same place.
Speaking of visiting Dear Old Blighty, what I’d LOVE to do, is come over at the time of the upcoming general election. Did that in 2001, but that was NOT what you’d call an thrilling contest. Indeed, only excitement I got was from starring in adoration at pictures of Ffion Hague in the papers! She’s 98% of the reason I’m adverse to taking potshots at her hubby - my hat’s off to him!!!
Getting back to my travel plans (as opposed to Wm Hague’s good fortune) note that I’ve already offered Iain Dale a heck of a deal: IF he can secure a nomination, and IF he will forward me round-trip air fare (first classs natch) then I will gladly help his cause by slandering him in every public house in his constituency. Ought to be good for a record majority!
Will of course make the same generous offer to NPMP. Might just be the racers edge for the PB Pride of Broxtowe . . .
550, DR - will do, bro!
David Roe, Will the Sun Scottish poll be in the paper today or at least very soon? Tomorrow perhaps? Ta.
In most circumstances I’d be inclined to agree, but when you look at the nature of the alternative it’s little wonder that people seem to be pulling back from the brink somewhat.
by James Kelly March 12th, 2010 at 1:38 am
Very possibly, but this I guess is for precisely the opposite reason you prefer to believe. The right in general is larger and yet more fragmented then it has EVER been, yet Cameron is still in a winning position. This strongly suggest that on balance Cameron is seen by the public as not being ‘conservative’ enough.
Also we are in danger for the first time in history of gaining an election result where the clear winner in terms of votes might not gain the most amount of seats, and so will not form the next government. If this happened this country, and certainly its democracy will be in dangerously uncharted waters.
Brown would be in an impossible position, and would surly be morally required to call another election within six months or so. If claiming a governing mandate with only 34% of the vote is hard. How much more difficult would it be if the opposition had 3 or more % then your own party?
I for one can not see this situation actually happening.
We are being constantly assured that Cameron needs to win by 7-10% to gain an overall majority. This may be statistically true, but the true figure will be more like 2-3% in practice.
There may be elements within both the Labour and Conservative Parties which would prefer to let this election go, for obvious reasons. However they largely cancel each other out. However on the streets at local level, Labour are either extremely depressed, minimal in number or indeed as good as non-existent.
IMO the establishment have used and used up Brown and his party of usefully useless Red idiots, so therefore now badly need to install a fresh looking new team of usefully useless Blue ones. Cameron is clearly the establishments new man, however much the BBC may like to appear to believe he is not.
Can anybody with links to the BBC confirm or deny the Corporation have been rushing around to polish the obituary of a certain former Prime Minister as they think they’ll be needing it very soon?
Size of the AR panel Is just under 50,000 or about the same as that which YouGov had at the 2005 general election.
@556 Mike Smithson March 12th, 2010 at 3:31 am
Thanks Mike, I remeber it being circa 40k a while back. Alos, a couple of posters wondering about how often people get polled and for info I have been polled twice this year by both Yougov and AR if you discount non VI polls.
553 - Not a clue, sorry.
@557 Must remember, wine and keyboards don’t go together.
Off home. Weird decision by Bangladesh to pick 4 spinners and then stick England in.
It suggests they are just hoping to avoid losing in two days. I’m putting some money on England to win after that.
Matt Lebo prediction, as of January 2010
Con 311
Lab 265
Seminar at Trinity College Dublin, today 12th March, and Essex University next Tuesday 16th March
http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/postgraduate/seminar_docs/Lebo%20and%20Norpoth%20Forecast%202010.pdf
However, Labour and Brown have recovered further since January, when Lebo wrote…
“The values used for our current forecast are based on MORI’s January 2010 poll that puts PM Approval at 33% and the two-party vote at 72%. As indicated by the star on Figure 4, this translates into a predicted vote lead of 6.9% for the Tories. This prediction is quite a bit better for Labour than would have been predicted based on numbers from December 2009. As will be shown in the seat predictions that follow, the uptick in Mr Brown’s popularity has made a Conservative plurality, rather than a majority, the most likely outcome of the 2010 election but it has also put the possibility of a Labour seat lead on the map…”
My take: Brown has been hitting 35% - 36% in recent approval polls, which indicates a photo-finish in seats…
I believe Mike has Matt Lebo on standby for a guest slot.
114 John Marsh: “this isn’t the time for untried people like Cameron and, especially, Osborne. They’re novices”
In 1997 both Blair and Brown were untried novices!
564 Also we are in danger for the first time in history of gaining an election result where the clear winner in terms of votes might not gain the most amount of seats, and so will not form the next government. If this happened this country, and certainly its democracy will be in dangerously uncharted waters.
In 1951 the Labour Party won the popular vote with 48.8% of the votes and got 295 seats
Tories with 44.3% got 305 seats and the National Liberal (a short lived party close to the Tories) 3.7% 19 seats.
The government was a coalition of Tory and National Lib, who’s combined vote was less than the Labour vote (ok only 0.8%) and got 29 more seats.
So it is not a common occurance but isn’t uncharted waters. The FPTP system is simple most seats and you win, share of the vote doesn’t count.