Tories take an 8 point lead with TNS-BMRB
March 5th, 2010
CON 39% (33.2)
LAB 31% (36.2)
LD 19% (22.7)
LAB>CON swing on 2005: 5.7%
Yet another pollster enters the fray
There’s a new voting intention survey out tonight from the Edinburgh-firm, TNS-BMRB, which has just started doing general election polls for the whole of Britain. The firm is well-established in Scotland and does regular political surveys north of the border.
Apparently they had a poll out last week with a four point lead which I missed when I was on holiday. The comparisons above are not with that poll but with the outcome in 2005.
TNS-BRMB has a unique approach. Polling is done face to face to face but interviewees fill in the survey forms on a lap-top provided by the interviewer to help ensure confidentiality. According to Anthony Wells of UKPR they do weight by past vote and take account of certainty to vote. TNS is a member of the British Polling Council.
What’s should be welcomed is that we now have a range of firms almost all of them with their own bespoke approaches. I think that that is a good thing and, on reflection, I was wrong in the last thread for criticising YouGov for not following other firms by past vote weighting.
Whatever the movement in this latest survey will bring some cheer to the blues and might just worry the red team.
UPDATE: The firm has issued a press release about the survey which makes this point:-
“…perhaps the most interesting voters are those making the big switch from Labour to Conservative. One in ten (11%) 2005 Labour voters are in this camp. The younger and more prosperous end of Labour’s 2005 support is more likely to make this switch than the older, lower income end…”
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Uno
fpt
248. But tim’s not smarter than me. He is about 8-10 IQ points stupider than me, judging by Wechsler analysis of his comments.
And I ALSO find him annoying.
Explain that?
Great to see anything other than YouGov, frankly.
Despite the UKPR article, I’ve no faith in their numbers whether they are up or down.
Were Labour 3% ahead in their previous poll??? If not, Mike needs to revise!
(OGH) … on reflection …
…cue conspiracy theorists / malcolm tucker videos…
As I said on the previous thread, always good to see Labour going down.
Their supplementaries sound quite good for the Lib Dems and a bit less rosy for the Tories though.
If you haven’t been watching Henry Mac’s tweets - they are hilarious
http://twitter.com/henrymacrory
Just glad to see a poll not from yougov. I wonder if they door-knock or stop people in the street.
Sorry, that is from their press release at http://www.tnsglobal.com/news/news-6733669E11654B96A79715EEBBC6FEC5.aspx
5. I think that’s the 2005 GE result.
As it’s their first UK wide poll, Mike takes the GE as the baseline.
ON topic, a nice poll for the Tories.
It must be incredibly frustrating for lefties that despire a week of herniating and histrionic effort over Ashcroft, they appear to have had zero impact - in fact they might have actually turned voters OFF the holier-than-thou, putridly hypocritical Labourites.
Heh. Now they know how the Tories felt during Bullygate and Lettergate.
I wonder at what point these truths will impact on the Guardian, as their casual readership declines day on day.
5 Read article they are the figures from 2005 election
5
“Were Labour 3% ahead in their previous poll??? If not, Mike needs to revise!”
Mike says in the article that the comparison is with the 2005 election results.
8 point lead gives 40 seat majority with Andy Cooke.
They also have a HUGE polling window: 25/2/10 to 3/3/10
This must be to allow for their unique polling technique. Whilst I welcome face-to-face polling, and all new polling companies, it surely isn’t sustainable? It isn’t particularly timely, and it must be really really expensive.
I notice that Gordon at Chilcott isn’t in the top 10 read stories on the BBC website and neither is Ashcroft.
John O
The previous figures are from the 2005 General Election. The changes from this company’s previous poll are Con (+3) Lab (-1) Lib Dem (-2).
Richard
Ashcroft for the left wing media has turned into Princess Di for the express.
Thanks to all. Naughty me. Sorry
Is there a YouGov tracker tonight please?
Too many polls, too many companies! But all the same - Tories high 30s, Labour low 30s.
UK Polling Report, UNS
CON 309
LAB 265
LIB 46
Hung Parliament, Conservatives 17 seats short
16 - I may be being completely thick but surely a longer polling period means that the headline numbers aren’t susceptible to short term sentiment issues?
17 I think it’s clear to anyone with half a brain that neither story is important outside Westminster Village. As much as the BBC and Sky have been reporting on Ashcroft is still has little traction. None of my friends (non political) have asked about either today. One mentioned that he hates Blair for taking us into Iraq after he saw Gordo on the TV in the lobby, but otherwise it’s business as usual outside the political bubble of Westminster.
21 - No next one is in the NotW Sunday.
Crikey - the AQ audience appear to be entirely made up of Labour supporters who are wolf-whistling - I’ve never heard anything like it.
Appalling.
22 - as a matter of interest, bearing in mind that SinnFein don’t take their Seats in Parliament is it not true that with UUP support the Tories would even on a UNS be pretty near the finish line of an overall majority for all practical purposes on figures like these.
“I was wrong in the last thread for criticising YouGov for not following other firms by past vote weighting.”
Mike, make a decision and stick by it - don’t start flip-flopping - your initial instinct was correct. YouGov are all over the place at the moment.
19. Good analogy. The Guardian has looked increasingly batty as the week has gone by - OK this was a good story on Monday, but a front page on Friday?
It just looks obsessive. Polemical. Neurotic. Desperate, even.
I’m guessing it is also very bad for sales - those casual readers attracted by an interesting headline, i.e. not Ashcroft AGAIN - which is why the Times gave up after two days.
This is the kind of tendentious lefty frontpage campaign journalism which turned the Independent into the thriving and influential paper it is today.
Mike I think the problem with YouGov is not its distinctiveness but rather the confusion and opacity relating to its methodology, and the changes in it - your frustration is quite understandable, and widely shared.
SeanT
Re Tim
Come on now, thats half the fun. Tim is a simon cowel style figure, everyone loves to hate him and see him proved wrong but deep down they appreciate he is knows whats going on
23 xenon
Fair point. I guess it has both pros and cons.
29 SeanT
I’ve now got to the stage with Ashcroft where I would beg James Kelly to start talking about SNP just to relieve the non-ending tedium.
Face to face.
No one seriously does street intercepts with a view to surveying general pop.
Face to face based on knocking up against a pre-generated street calling list is how it is done. Because neighbourhoods are sptially distinct selecting the address ranges to use is the key part of this technique. It is still pretty much a gold standard and used by the ONS for a lot of their flagship surveys. It is a bugger and expensive, and creating the sample frame (list of addresses to knock up) is fiendish complicated.
Good to see someone still doing it old style. I think TNS BMRB have the pedigree and resources to do this. Don’t they still run the Target Group Index (TGI) and superpanel surveys?
unfortunately TNS polls in Scotland have shown to be very eratic - and them showing a 4pt gap last week and a 8pt gap this week does slightly suggest they are still not particularly reliable. perhaps more regular polling might help - but the Scottish experience over the last10 years has not been good on an accuracy front
“By God, The Guardian is a loathsome newspaper; a local north London morning daily for Stalinist metro libtards, perpetually arrogant, snobbish, self-righteous, humourless, dull, relentlessly middle class, cowardly and cheap.”
http://www.samizdata.net/blog/archives/2010/03/samizdata_quote_624.html
With no YouGov tonight then I guess we await tomorow night for a further batchof polls. Hope that extends beyond the YouGov tracker though.
31 - “he knows whats going on”
He claimed a source saying Cameron was staying at CCHQ instead of going to Norwich North because he had to stay behind and fire Andy Coulson…
33 Alanbrooke
I’m not sure that James has any intimate knowledge of Sir Norfolk to talk about.
Chilon.
You obviously fancy him.
That’s what sets you apart from the rest of us.
Though tim is bl**dy brilliant, in comparison with the brainless abusers who have infested the site very recently.
I posted this without realising a new thread had begun:
263.Not sure what the Scottish twitter scoop is meant to be but I watched both STV News and BBC Scotland News and other than reporting Steven Purcell’s resignation, nothing more said.
Sorry but I for one just do not buy the YouGov explanation. I agree with Marcus Wood. If YouGov is experiencing problems getting Labour leaning respondents it may simply be because there are far fewer of them.
If they used the past voting weighting then we might understand their workings.
by Easterross March 5th, 2010 at 7:59 pm
On seeing the new thread I was about to say that as its TNS I would treat it with disdain given their p1ss poor record on Scottish polls. However I noted Mark Senior’s explanation about the difference between their weighting on UK polls and non-weighting on Scottish only ones. Thanks Mark (not often I appreciate a remark from Mr Senior).
I watched Channel 4 News and frankly if that was balanced journalism, I am the Labour PPC for Glasgow Central and my name is Sarwar.
Augustus Carp, I know I have recently just had my chap cut down a small wood making the house visible from the main road but have you been spying on me with a long lens you wee scamp.
31 chilon
how can he ? he sits at his screen 16 hours a day and goes fishing on the internet for his life. He doesn’t get out, he has no achievements to point to and were it not for his sometimes amusing contortions - what has his life accomplished ? A PhD in Sad.
Christ - it gets worse on AQ, the BBC should be ashamed on themselves.
Expect a formal complaint from CCHQ - I’ve listened to it for over 20yrs and this is a shocker.
26, exactly. I came back on the site to post that. 3 raving lefties on the panel, and whooping, hollering leftwing morons in the whole audience.
Now a question about ‘Foot magic’.
36
Hey, that blog shouldn’t generalise! I’m from North London (N21) but no one around here reads the Guardian, I’m not even sure they sell it in the newsagents, have to go to Sainsbury’s to buy it, but then why would you!
North London has a large Tory supporter base out in the suburbs of Enfield and Barnet!
36 Seant, meet your Mrs Right.
43, the last time it was hosted in a mosque it was similar though not quite as appalling.
HA sally - I don’t fancy Tim. Although it seems you both have a special relationship with each other
I just don’t see why you all get so upset by him.
There is nothing offensive about him is there? Sure he is partisan, but then so what. If you didn’t have overtly Labour people to bait then what would you all do with your time!
My first AQ’s listen and its awful, moderator having to spell out the arguement against Ashcroft and the audience (an audience who have come to a minor political debate) are polled to see if they think Ashcroft is important.
They will, they are interested in politics you idiot! The vast majority of the electorate dont care.
33 - I can use Ashcroft and SNP in the same sentence. when I was canvassing this afternoon a voter asking me what was this ‘Ashcroft thing’. I when I explained to her the tax implications from being Resident/Ordinarily resident to ordinarily resident/not domiciled her eyes glazed over and she said ‘ so what!’ said the former Labour voter now undecided.
Mike - why do you not put last week’s figures in the headline as the comparison? seems weird? if it was the same methodology lat week then surely those are the figures to use?
48 There’s no special relationship.
Tim is a dissembler.
But I agree we need overtly Labour people.
27. Is that the AQ being broadcast from an terrorist supporting mosque, are women allowed on the stage? do they have to cover their heads?
Average of you Gov rackers for this week is 38.32 17.The comparison to this survey is CON +1,LAB -1 LIB+2 oTH -2.
I suspect we will see similar figiures from ICM and Populus
49, as someone who has listened on and off for a while, I should say AQ tends to be better than QT, but the audience and the panel are both packed with lefties.
Great post on Guido:
http://order-order.com/2010/03/05/who-put-the-m-in-conservative/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+guidofawkes+(Guy+Fawkes%27+blog+of+parliamentary+plots%2C+rumours+and+conspiracy)
Transcript of Brown’s ramble through Chilcot.
Blair and that, well they were all in it together.
Not Me though.
I did the right thing.Sometimes even more than i was asked. And I saved Iraq.
Vote Labour.
51 A pollster is judged by results. Since we haven’t been following them to get a ‘feel’ it’s a very sensible starting point.
HOW TO COMPETE AND GROW: A Sector Guide to Policy.
This is an important international McKinsey report on how countries can both compete and grow globally. Whether or not GB would understand it is another matter.
The link is to the Executive Summary as the full report is 6GB.
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/reports/freepass_pdfs/competitiveness/Exec_Summary_Competitiveness.pdf
41 Easterross
Please say it’s not true! Surely that sugar was meant for your tea. and the spoon accidentally spilt!
Met office drops seasonal weather forecasts because well frankly they are crap.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/7378853/Met-Office-drops-seasonal-forecast.html
As predicted here the Ashcroft smears have caused a massive sympathy swing to the Conservatives - 4% in a week.
How did Labour think it would play out when everybody remembers Damian McBride, Alistair Campbell and Peter Mandelson - all three disgraced and exposed?
The public understands the sub-plot of smear and manipulation - the machinations of the manipulator and the mendacious.
The masters of spin, deceit and smears are now Labour’s worst enemy, who know no better and cannot help themselves - they continue to spin, deceive and smear, thinking it will still work now because it worked before.
Times have changed. This is a very different public now and Labour are still stuck in the past, fighting previous general elections rather than the current.
The Conservatives look modern and forward-looking. Labour can do nothing but spout venom and nastiness.
In that context who would you vote for?
The more smears the further the polls will swing against Labour, right before an imminent general election.
The Conservatives have regained their mojo, Labour look utterly desperate.
The public can scent desperation. They don’t like it. They are fed up of the worst government in 300 years.
this survey was started back last month, totally out of date with todays thinking.
39 oldnat
you can say that, but I’m afraid James would be asking me to send links proving my statements and would probably get his lawyers involved unless I yield to thwe dark forces of Nittism.
PS you didn’t answer re “slabber” n. does it mean the same in Scotland as Ireland? ( aplos. if I missed it )
60, hilarious Mehdi Hassan. Complains about minority Anjem Choudry etc given too much press, then mentions an EDL demonstration, but doesn’t mention there were about 200 people there.
Random Scottish poll.
Bobajob = drunk.
Hi Sally C!
63, whoops. Didn’t mean to start with 60.
Oh, and poor ikkle Muslims are treated like Jews in 1930s Germany, apparently. Audience whoops and applauds.
Likely LibDem voters are much more likely to select Labour than the Tories as a second choice (35% compared to 20%) with the number choosing Conservatives as their second choice decreasing.
by wibbler March 5th, 2010 at 8:01 pm
With the Lib Dems going down from 22% to 16% then 25% of them have changed to vote Tory. Well to incrase from 32% to 40% they had to come from some where.
I wonder if many more of those 20% will move over?
TNS-BMRB’s note at the end of the OP about younger, more prosperous Labour voters switching. If we can assume this group is more likely to be on the internet, then it dovetails neatly with YouGov’s findings and the need for disloyal Labour adjustments, and can also explain the apparently contradictory Angus Reid large Conservative leads.
62 Alanbrooke
Sorry, I missed your question. I’d say “slaver” not “slabber” in that context.
47 what decent non muslim person would be caught dead in such a vile place?
Friday = fun.
Same old SeanT, always cheating.
Sent from my iPhone.
62 I think asking for a link is down to me - Mr Kelly has referred to this point more than once since IIRC.
59 Oldnat dont worry he was obviously spying on the wrong house. I rarely eat porridge. I am a Lidl’s muesli and fruit yogurt man. Sorry if that makes me sound like a LibDem or Guardian reading Blairlite.
I only eat porridge when I am forced to or participating at a Highland Ball where we get it for breakfast after the 4th reel at around 3am.
I welcome this new firm and it’s distinctive approach with face to face polling . We do need to see the full data tables hopefully with not too much delay after the poll comes out .
I repeat that Yougov used past vote weighting in their polls prior to the last GE , I agree with Mike’s original statement that they should go back to it instead of Party ID .
68 - we would say slaver here on the East coast too rather than slabber.
67. Interesting, I wonder if we can corroborate that at all.
62 Alanbrooke a “slabber” is one who is employed constructing fireplaces, usually of the stone or marble variety. I am not aware of any other meaning.
Only one Runnymedey
One Runnymedey
He’s rightwing and old,
Bitter and cold,
Walking in a Runny wonderland!
Sally C
If Tim never came back - you would soon miss him.
Will L
That is one of the worst attempts at spin I have ever seen.
Don’t you just love the Grauniad. They (and tim) are now alone in continuing to talk about Ashcroft.
Tonight’s headline is “Ashcroft in fresh storm over Turks and Caicos loans”. Storm indeed. I can’t even feel a draught. Come on guys - even al Beeb and the Indy have thrown in the towel. You lost, and it’s time to put it to bed. Sleep well.
Still no budget announcement ?
64 Overtly Labour and overtly sloshed.
You’re the most charming left wing combo we have seen all day.
Hello yourself.
58. financier
Consultants - articulate guano. The people who gave us
- Business Process re-engineering ( doesn’t work )
- Shareholder value ( National impoverishment )
- Paradigm shift on risk ( sub-prime loans )
I could go on but it’s too depressing. These so called clever guys fleece us for fees and add nothing to the national wealth.
76. A bigmouth who is all mouth and no trousers…..
FPT:
weathercock,
if YouGov were so biased, why would CCHQ hire them?!
by Philippe Magnan March 5th, 2010 at 5:38 pm
‘COS THEY’RE NUTS
78. No.
79 Don’t hold your breath. They’re still fixated on Coulson,after all.
Just catching up on Chilcot. So on the question of funding, do I infer that Brown is accusing the generals of fibbing ? If so, presumably we haven’t heard the last of this ?
Well the Purcell story seems a bit ‘woah’
Very sad.
79 The Guardian are attempting to emulate the enormous success of their London Mayoral campaign.
Tonights canvass returns:
More of the same. Solid Labour. Mid term Tories not sure, some switching to Labour or looking to vote other than Con.
Our seat (won’t name) is a KEY marginal. The Tories (almost have to win it) have already announced it as probably lost privately. We are not sure. We think we may be on our way to winning with the feedback on the doorstep.
The reason are clear and I have posted them b4.
Bulls are being stuffed, mightily.
78. chilon.
Are you tim, morphed?
We had no tim for a week or so a little while back. PB was so much the better.
76 Oldnat\marcia\Easterross
across the North Channel a “slabber” is someone who talks drivel - it was why I laughed at Stuart’s invitation to SLABers.
Given the connections I suppose the world etymology is pretty much the same. I also enjoyed the Caledonion Mercury which does word slots, it was ages since I’d seen the word “skelf”, though I’d always used it as a child.
79 - if there was a major incident with significant loss of life in London on Sunday, Monday’s Guardian would look like:
ASHCROFT IN NEW TAX STORM
Disgraced Tory peer Lord Ashcroft failed to account for a missing receipt in buying a bag of potatoes in 2008 (pages 1-6)
OTHER NEWS: 100 die in explosion in London West End (page 7)
90. thunder box.
Stop ramping.
88 We don’t know as much as you - show off.
78 I do miss tyson and malcolm.
90 - Won’t name as Narnia West has been abolished in boundary changes?
93 - we would say ‘havering’ - that person talking a lot of havers
no connection to SLABer - i.e. Scottish Labour - when I think it maybe there is a connection
Oh well, June 3rd it is.
Thank heavens for my 20/1 on that.
It was always going to be thus.
Has there ever been a recorded incident of a canvasser of any party who hasn’t said that they’re going to win because of feedback on the doorstep?
92
No not at all.
But if you tories think you have it bad without tim.
You should try having Sean T et al around.
You don’t know your born!
On a serious note, I think the main reason he gets on peoples nerves is because the polls are closed.
96 - I have no details myself beyond what has been said on here. I’ll put the story up later but it does look like something very sad has happened.
If I was showing off I’d mention that I’d had dinner with a film director or an actress that denied sleeping with Sean.
90 - *cough* bullsh1t *cough*
bobajobs posts have improved no end.
http://twitter.com/SamuelCoates/status/10040531806
88 - Davis, I take the Sun has something for tomorrow ?
No. 61 - Well said, I totally agree with you, and hopefully very soon, Labour can be then voted out
This poll proves conclusively that TNS-BMRB are without doubt the only trustworthy polling organisation in western Europe, unlike all the other frankly crazy ones which consistently(under the direction of the BBC and the so-called “media”) overweight Labour by a factor of at least 27.5%. Finally a pollster which “tells it like it is” and over the coming weeks I am sure the lead will stretch to stratospheric heights as people “move on” from all this garbage about His Eminence Lord Ashcroft. People have quite frankly had enough of this discredited bunch of … (complete according to degree of rabid Tory delirium)
101. chilon: you tories
I’m not a Tory.
You don’t know your born!
What don’t I know about my born?
97 It’s full of Labour voters it will be more like by Middle Earth.
ps. The charm of showing off is greatly underestimated.[Feel free to spill].
106 - meant to say David. Sorry.
60 “Met office drops seasonal weather forecasts because well frankly they are crap.”
they said on the radio it was because a survey found that their customers preferred monthly forecasts. Which is a bit like Toyota saying that they recalled all those cars because a survey of their customers revealed a strong preference for cars which slow down and eventually stop when the pedal between the clutch and the accelerator is depressed.
The validity of their forecasts for the next couple of centuries is of course in no way called into question by this debacle.
bribrad
sorry you can’t do irony either.
O/T - Don’t you just love the smell of hypocrisy.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1255773/Anti-gay-Republican-Senator-arrested-drunk-driving-leaving-gay-club.html
90
How do you announce something privately. Its a contradiction in terms..
chilon. Go back through the threads.
tim has never failed to be annoying.
101 your = you’re
Sorry
116 To be fair Sally, he does come up with some hilariously bad policy ideas for taxation on occasion which provide some entertainment.
96. I assume some sort of public service is involved by now, because otherwise the story wasn’t exactly the saddest in the world. Unless David Roe is easily moved.
No vowels in TNS-BMRB can we add some to make it easier to say?
How about Tense-Bumrub?
You can huff! you can puff! but it will be all to no avail.
No one gives a sh1t anymore. Oh! and by the way stop putting allegations in inverted commas Guardstain “alarming” . Its just shows you are full of cr@p
Ashcroft in new storm over alleged loans to disgraced island premier• Peer sues over story linking him to Turks and Caicos scandal
• Court papers highlight ‘alarming’ influence on Hague
In other news
Brown tanked at Chilcott but hey! why let facts get in the way of a good story huh?
115 How?
Having come onto a public forum and been roundly ignored, against all odds, he has achieved a degree of success.
A young man who collapsed outside Glasgow City Chambers and later died is a popular Labour Party activist who was a friend of ex-council leader Steven Purcell, sources have told STV News.
Danus McKinlay, 18, was well known to many members of the Labour group.
He died in hospital after he was found outside the historic building on Friday afternoon.
Mr McKinlay was also an employee of Glasgow City Council.
Mr Purcell, who quit his top post this week and on Friday resigned as councillor for Blairdardie is said to be extremely distressed following the death of his friend.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/161777-eighteen-year-old-labour-activist-dies-after-collapsing-outside-city-chambers/
We could win this, right?
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/02/general-election-quiz-enter-team.html
mattjroper Breaking: 18-y-o Labour activist dies after collapsing outside city chambers. DeahFriend of Steven Purcell’s ‘not suspicious’.
If that’s it, yes sad indeed.
I am watching the video to Flashdance and I am struck by how much Jennfier Beale of a 1983 vintage is in desperate need of a lifetime of Dyed lovin.
Followed by Neneh Cherry
Bird heaven
116
I do read them occasionally! He did quite rightly jump on your claim that kellner was just as likely to be wrong over *that* you gov poll. I must admit that occasionally he can be a bit brash about things. But then more often than not, it seems to be him versus everyone else.
Part of me, deep down, thinks that maybe, just maybe tim is from the same place as Nuala or going way back Sarah J
Sorry I can’t post - birthday weekend-drunk in a hunting lodge-Cameron direct vetted questions tonight to exclude Ashcroft
Oh that’s an absolutely awful story.
105, shome mishtake, shurely?
After all, it was the number 1 question of both QT and the most partisan AQ I can ever recall.
124 - Hands down I would imagine.
125 Kristin
Agreed. Political issues are always interesting, but personal tragedies are just that.
128 - come off it tim, if someone wants to ask a question, what’s stopping them. Hunting? Charlie keeping you company
114. Voting against special rights for minority groups does not make you anti those minority groups. It makes you anti special rights.
“Apparently they had a poll out last week with a four point lead which I missed when I was on holiday.”
…but what a coincidence the 8pt lead gets posted from possibly one of the most insignificant pollsters I am yet to come across.
I can only guess that you have the house on the Tories.
128 - You do post some utter tripe.
128 tim
nobody cares
go get drunk, enjoy yourself, talk to your family
123. Still waiting to hear about the swimming pool….
re 128. Tim - that’s bollocks.
I’ve attended and asked questions at a Cameron direct session and there is no pre-vetting of questions. Cameron just takes what is thrown at him.
Also the audience I was in seemed to be made up almost totally of non-Tories.
Don’t know much about this TNS mob, but it’s nice to have some non Yougov polling.
Anyone else a bit itchy about Yougov’s dominance of polling?
And tim is ‘drinking’, at a ‘bash’, in a ‘lodge’, yet seems to know what happened at a town hall meeting that has just finished. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
127 Chilon you are a weird bloke/girl whatever.
As I said earlier tim is a bright bloke who uses his intelligence to distort facts/tell porkies/ramp etc.
He is not the second coming, he is not a remotely decent bloke as what he mainly does is the above with the occassional foray in to pretending to bet when he is made to look an idiot.
By the way have I missed something, does this mean tim has gone?
To be honest if I had a friend who collapsed and died I might think working 20 hours a day was not what I really wanted to do with my life.
140. i have worked for them…
141 “By the way have I missed something, does this mean tim has gone?”
looking above clearly not.
141. HE’S BEHIND YOU
140, the endless polls and the issues about methodology are cause for concern, I think.
On a more positive note, Bradford storming back against Wigan.
65 - “Oh, and poor ikkle Muslims are treated like Jews in 1930s Germany, apparently. Audience whoops and applauds.”
Oh how ironic.
Now which group are behind the increase in attacks on jews across Europe.
mindyou when some of them lap up shit like
http://www.mpacuk.org/content/view/2465/34/
“MPAC’s world view is simple. We are at War. MPAC believes every Muslim man woman and child is a target in that War. And we believe that it is FARD upon every capable Adult to defend the Ummah.
We also adopt the position that every Muslim who does not participate in that war is committing a crime against those they allow to be murdered, raped and persecuted and against his or her Lord.”
Now which party panders to Intolerent Islamists???
Oh that would be Labour
113
So let me get this straight: I can’t spell, can’t do sarcasm, can’t punctuate, have a limited vocabulary, can’t tie my own shoelaces, can’t avoid my tax, can’t kill foxes, can’t talk in a shrill Old-Etonian accent, can’t pose as a vacuous lightweight right-wing toff without a single policy save cutting inheritance tax for my wealthy chums and can’t seem to seal the deal with the voters. Perhaps I’m slowly turning into Dave mark 2.
141 ” Tim uses his intelligence to distort facts/tell porkies/ramp etc ”
No different to 90% of the Conservatives who post on here then .
The guardian should learn to get a knew story each day. They seem to have a headline per week.
It’s shootin, huntin timmy!
140 MD
they are boring as hell and ultimately meaningles. I would rather talk about genetically engineered fish.
chilon.
tim is wrong about a lot of things. See up thread. That night [or shortly after] he got Tory policy wrong and was made to look silly in minutes.
So he should be a little less brash, as you put it. Or he should be funny with it. Like Sean. Or self deprecating. But can’t be. And he’s nasty with it. So all he has left is being right. And if he can’t be that, what’s left?
Having helped run a Cameron Direct, as Mike said, it’s open.
149 bribrad
why not stop the spin and state what a Labour policy is. People might be interested.
Talk about bullying! The Chilcot inquiry was pummelled by Gordon Brown, walloped and thumped as words rained down like nutty slack down a coal hole. Short questions would be greeted with replies of 300 words. Longer questions were met with disquisitions on the British constitution, the recent history of the Middle East and any other weapon the prime minister found lying around.
He had to be told to slow down; he was going too fast for the stenographer who, we assumed, was slumped unconscious on the floor. Brown takes the view that you need to say everything a dozen times. Then once more, in case there’s a hermit on Uist who hasn’t heard it yet. Plus one for luck.
It was like a grisly new Radio 4 game, Just A Century, perhaps, in which contestants have to speak for as long as possible while using maximum deviation and repetition. And statistics. He had files full of numbers which he hurled at the hapless panel. There was no hesitation. If he didn’t have an answer he deployed instant repetition, snapping: “it was the right decision taken for the right reasons,” which I counted five times before my own brain began to rattle in my skull, like a retired boxer.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/05/chilcot-inquiry-iraq-gordon-brown
151: Give em a chance, they’ve laying off people hand over fist, the poor lambs.
139
Yes, dodgy millions, mainly.
150 and Mark senior uses his statto-ness to prove that Labour are “winning here” based on some council election in 1962, despite being a lib dem.
150 Mark Senior
Mark - set aside the Tory spin - why are the LibDems not doing better ? Really from what has been seen recently you have the “uncontaminated brand, a struggling government with little good news and a mood for change. Why are the LibDems not at least on the same level as the Alliance in 1983 ?
what’s the illness called, where a person has been driven into deep depression and confusion by a stream of non-sensical political polling?
Pollaphobia?
Surely these daily polls are a conspiracy by the psychiatric profession to ensure plenty of extra patients for 2010. You’d think the victims of Downing Street aggression would be plenty enough to fill the wards for now.
Once a nation of shop-keepers, we will soon become known as a nation of counsellors.
There ain’t half some rubbish on TV…thought I’d see what’s happening on here
re 125 LS that’s what I Was thinking too
“It was like a grisly new Radio 4 game, Just A Century, perhaps, in which contestants have to speak for as long as possible while using maximum deviation and repetition.”
Lolzalot
123 A very sad story following on from an equally sad one concerning Steven Purcell. Is there a photo of the young chap on any news reports? I only ask because when I saw Steven Purcell in a pub last month with a group of hangers on there was a young chap who might have been him in the group.
Of the most outspoken critics of Brown, who is actually going to be left after the coming election? Most of them are stepping down - the great Water Buffalo may survive but I fancy Norwich South falling (I think Labour will be wiped out in East Anglia), so, Frank Field and that’s about it?
139 - “re 128. Tim - that’s bollocks.”
tim being less than truthful, what a shocker!!!!
Imagine if you can Gordon “courage” Brown doing anything like that (non slavishly loyal / benign questioning)
Nope, not easy is it
149, not surprising, alas.
154, so would I
Less than a week until Bahrain practice starts. Hurrah!
Oh…it’s very quiet on here this evening…are we all still a bit punch drunk from Gordon’s statistical epilepsy this afternoon
Mike
Not sure why you describe TNS-BMRB as an Edinburgh firm?
Maybe there are doing the polling out the Edinburgh office?
But main office is in London.
The brand follows WPP acquiring TNS.
Wonder if this crazy Lib Dem policy will hurt them?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/devon/8552121.stm
Tom Bradby on Gordon Brown’s media style
Sorry, link
http://blog.itv.com/news/tombradby/?p=63
167 DIW
but isn’t that the problem ? The Labour party goes back to the core activists and loses it’s way with the electorate. It’s the smae with Tories moaning about the press. Ultimately the “on message” press has done Labour no favours, it stifled debate and allowed them to pass ill-thought out legislation which needed scrutiny to succeeed. Many of Labour’s current problems stem from the lack of constructive opposition.
170 DT
give us a subject ( NOT Ashcroft or Chilcot or poll weightings !)
173: The debates are going to be so fun…..
As a birthday present for tim
My week: William Hague
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7051920.ece
Local byelections March 4 2010
Fenland DC, The Mills
Con 301 (45.9; -11.2)
LD Chris Howes 264 (40.2; -2.7)
UKIP 58 (8.8; +8.8)
Lab 33 (5.0; +5.0)
Majority 37
Turnout 31.8%
Con hold
Percentage change is since May 2007.
Chatteris TC, The Mills
2 Seats
Con 340 (28.8)
LD Diane Baldry 324 (27.5)
Con 255 (21.6)
UKIP 151 (12.8)
Lab 109 (9.2)
LD gain from Con, 1 Con hold
Majority (of elected Conservative over Liberal Democrat) 16
Turnout 31.7%
Winsford TC, Wharton
LD Alfred Beverley Theron 201 (36.2)
Con 182 (32.7)
Lab 173 (31.1)
Majority 19
Turnout 15.5%
LD gain from Con
175 well, I guess I am coming at this from the persepctive of what happens when and if Labour lose the election - there is nothing and no-one left to take them away from the failed Brownite approach.
Labour are f*cked, period.
162- Pollaphobia can also refer to an extraordinary aversion that some people evince toward champagne socialists with Tuscan villas.
* * * BETTING POST * * *
Maybe it’s been there for a while, but I haven’t noticed it before. In any case, Paddy Power have a market on “Next leader of the Lib Dems”.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=226656
I don’t know the party well enough, and it’s not much fun betting on a market without a settlement date, but nevertheless, there seem to be some decent long-shot contenders. The one that stands out is Charles Kennedy at 33/1.
96. Sorry it has upset you, just telling it how it is.
Furthermore another marginal down the road is reporting the same canvass returns (naturally we were suspicious). They have done 9,000. We have done 4,000 since xmas.
Tonight’s was Band C and D primarily for the record.
If things remain the same we will end up with a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party, 280-300.
SallyC, if you missed my post last night, Tom Bradby is now blogging.
And Tom’s latest post on Brown’s interview style long ago reminded me of that terrible couple of interviews he gave during the banking crisis. Just kept repeating the same answer over and over, he obviously hadn’t realised that news stations would want more than a soundbite from him on such an important issue. Is Brown the first leading politician to actually have an interview edited and downgraded to a soundbite when the journalist had sought to have a more substantive and in depth interview for the news?
166 - I have a picture later. He’s a big lad but he looks so young.
Oldnat\Easterross\Marcia
for the unscottish can you explain to me why the Tory brand took such a kicking during the 90s and has struggled to recover ? My perception of events was Scotland wasn’t particularly treated worse than anywhere else ( though it wasn’t favoured as say the South East )
ps I am in South Dakota in a nuclear bunker two miles down. Not a trick question, genuinely interested.
180 Stars. How is your man getting on in New Jersey, and when can the popcorn be gotten out for Hoboken.
176 - OK why is it that the LibDems are keeping Saint Vincent Cable under wraps ? Surely he is their biggest electoral asset and I cannot for the life of me understand why he’s not being used more. If they’re not careful the LibDems will get down to 16% or below in the polls and once thery’re down in that area they’re gonna get ignored. They need to start the campaign around 20% and push the fact that a vote for them isn’t gonna be wasted…if they start around 16% it’ll give Labaour and Tories the chance to write them off to the public.
I think Matthew Parris might be hitting the nail on the head.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article7051875.ece
“The debates are going to be so fun…..”
Assuming McDoom doesn’t keep putting off the election date to avoid the debate until there’s no time left.
181 Next leader of the Lib Dems
I see PP have missed one out.
Last man standing ~ evens
YEEEAAAAHHHHH
Woot Woot Woot
181.wibbler, that Charles Kennedy bet looks good. I am tempted to have a wee punt on that. I still think that he is a relatively young and so could have another shot at the Libdem leadership, especially if the powers that be currently running the show see a poor performance in the GE. Salmond stepped down and then returned to the job in the SNP, didn’t do him or his party any harm. Sometimes a good thing has to go away for a wee while before you realise how much you miss it, or how successful it was to your brand.
181 - At 16/1 I reckon Sarah Teather may be worth a poke…if you excuse my rather vulgar terminology
FT on Macavity.
Mr Brown, a uniquely powerful chancellor in modern times, pretended that he was a mere beancounter. He defended his department’s funding of the war effort by noting that he did not turn down requests for money from the Ministry of Defence. But to focus on the narrow question of specific funding requests for operations in Iraq is to miss the point.
The defence budget, in the run-up to the war and during it, was not big enough to finance the foreign policy that Mr Blair wanted to follow. So an effective and strong chancellor of the exchequer should have been sounding alarms about Britain’s ability to conduct a war in Iraq in 2003 and its 2005 decision to expand its commitment to Afghanistan. But Mr Brown disappeared.
182. thunder box.
And I presume you’re not going to tell us which that other marginal is either?
Face it, you’re making it up.
192 ChristinaD
sorry didn’t see you were posting, see 185
191.David,
??!! Reaction to sport or politics?
193 - If things get so bad that Clegg leaves there is no chance she’ll be an MP. Avoid.
191. Don’t get too excited about the Lib Dems in Wales. They will get hammered in 32 of 40 seats but that won’t matter to their seat total. It is the political asteroid approaching Montgomeryshire that is of most interest. Will it it be just a close approach, a near miss or very unlikely a direct hit?
182. Which seats are these? It would be interesting to check the canvass figures of the PPC’s office if you are finding something different.
171 Indeed Martin, I’m surprised there is apparently such little knowledge of Taylor Nelson Sofres on PB. Already one of the world’s largest market research companies, it was acquired last year by WPP, itself one the world’s largest advertising agencies.
If there is any one firm which can put some money and muscle behind polling, this is it. As a group, WPP must a hundred times larger than its competitors combined.
197 - Sport. Bradford were 0-20 at half time against Wigan and scored a last minute try to win 22-20.
Not just that, I was on them for money too
82. 105. @SallyC Voreas etc.
Best of the evening to you, my misguided but sweet Tory friends.
Consider the month of March. Comes in like a lion. Goes out like a lamb.
198 DR
why should things get so bad for the LDs if they had a bit of leadership Clegg could take his party to the alternative force in British politics.
Totally OT, one of the oddest things I’ve seen about Northern Ireland in many a year, but the mock DUP poster are hilarious.
http://bavarian-orange.blogspot.com/
The Peter Robinson one is particularly good.
194.Posted this earlier.
Just catching up with Brown’s Chilcott inquiry appearance. I suspect that like many of Brown’s budget’s in the past, immediate reactions will give way to different perceptions once the details have been properely assimulated and checked.
Brown’s biggest problem on the funding of the Iraq war will continue to go back to the spending decisions he took back around 2003. We may have been fighting a war on Foriegn soil, but his mind was firmly on gathering a war chest for a domestic political battle within his government and in the country in 2005. He might try and spin that he wasn’t aware of real problems for another three years, conveniently post GE, and at the time he was planning to finally oust Tony Blair. Also, by 2006, we were fighting a second war in Afghanistan and that was by now beginning to dominant the news, as was military shortages on the front line.
by ChristinaD March 5th, 2010 at 3:47 pm
199 - I think Lembit has rightly kept his head down and will dodge the bullet.
Montgomery stayed Liberal when the Libs almost ceased to exist. I can’t see them losing it now… Surely?
Would be an amazing result if he does manage that.
202
That excellent! Saints fans will be pleased(I declare an interest here)
198 - David , mayne but I’m not so sure. She comes across very much as relatively “normal” and also I believe she was one of the MP’s with the smallest expenses claims..(I think)…she seems very genuine
196.Hi Alan, just catching up tonight.
186- Chris Christie is starting to receive some plaudits for being willing to tackle New Jersey’s horrific budget woes head-on. Here’s a sample from an article today in the Baltimore Sun:
“In these times of economic distress, massive job losses, shrunken businesses, bloated governments and runaway public spending, we’ve been waiting for some politician (other than Ron Paul) to stand and tell the truth. Politicians excel at “kicking the can down the road” — that is, postponing the inevitable reckoning for unsustainable spending until they are either safely out of office or dead. But behold! The newly elected governor of New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie, stood in front of 200 of his state’s mayors last week and told them basically that there is no more road down which to kick that proverbial can…
Christie: “Our citizens are already the most overtaxed in America,” the governor said. “U.S. mayors hear it all the time. You know that the public appetite for increasing taxes has reached an end.” Later, he said, “You know, at some point, there has to be parity between what is happening in the real world and what is happening in the public sector world. The money does not grow on trees outside this building or outside your municipal building. It comes from the hard-working people of our communities who are suffering and are hurting right now. And so we need to get honest with each other,” Mr. Christie said. “In this instance, the political class [is] lagging behind the public on this. The public is ready to hear that tough choices have to be made. They’re not going to like it. Don’t confuse the two. But they are ready to hear the truth.”"
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bal-op.smith0305,0,7737968.column
In fact, Christie is staking his entire political career on whether he can persuade other elected officials (Democrats control the state legislature) and the people of the state that his budgetary discipline is both necessary and worth the sacrifices that must be made. If he succeeds, New Jersey could see a return of fiscal discipline without resorting to even more onerous taxation. If he fails, we’ll probably see higher taxes AND less budget discipline. But give him credit: at least he has the guts to plainly tell it like it is and take the flak from the people who don’t want to hear it.
Not a fan really, but my family are, of rugby league. Just checked the scores, and Leeds absolutely trounced Quins, 62-4. Ultimate Loiner victory!
207 Yes but it flipped in 1979 when their position was nothing like as perilous in the 50’s. FWIW I agree totally but can Lembit keep his head down until polling day? If he can and it remains Con v Lib Dem he’ll be fine, if he lets it become Glyn v Lembit then it gets exciting.
203. Bobajob: He sold them at the price they were worth at the time.
Welcome March with wintry wind;
Wouldst thou were not so unkind!
209, Teather’s loathsome. I’d much rather have Julia Goldsworthy.
203. Bobajob: Consider the month of March. Comes in like a lion. Goes out like a lamb.
Welcome March with wintry wind;
Wouldst thou were not so unkind!
Apologies for 214, copying error!
211 And Hoboken? Do those guys get their cases taken out of state or not.
188 - re the Parris article - there are too many people, as he mentions, who don’t want to face the future. The real problem however is the unscrupulous politician that promises them more than they know they can provide. In this situation it’s more than dishonest, it’s criminal to give such false hope.
202.David, I had an inkling that it combined sport and betting.
219 - I don’t disagree but con artists wouldn’t be successful if there wasn’t a gullible public willing to be duped.
* * * BETTING POST * * *
Maybe it’s been there for a while, but I haven’t noticed it before. In any case, Paddy Power have a market on “Next leader of the Lib Dems”.
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=226656
I don’t know the party well enough, and it’s not much fun betting on a market without a settlement date, but nevertheless, there seem to be some decent long-shot contenders. The one that stands out is Charles Kennedy at 33/1.
by wibbler March 5th, 2010 at 9:37 pm
He is now down to 25/1 since you posted?
He was asked on TV if he would be the Lib/Dem leader again, and he said “you never know”
205 Yokel
LOL
best NI site since the Portadown News !
Tee Hee
http://johnrentoul.independentminds.livejournal.com/304535.html
Charles Kennedy already down to 25/1!
Vince Cable has also come in, from 5/1 to 9/2.
Backing those two against the field I reckon would be a good bet
188. That article offers absolutely no incentive for voting Tory. If things are going to be permanently horrible, why not vote for somebody who will give you a short-term benefit instead of no benefit at all? If you vote Tory, then you’re screwing yourself and your family over in order to massage the egos of a small group of rich jackasses and mentally stunted ex-Young Conservatives. It’s like signing yourself up for a Darwin Award.
Also, what does Chekhov have to do with anything? Don’t drag him into this.
Telegraph Front Page is not good for Labour.
229. xenon.
Not great, but the headline doesn’t actually mention them…
204 - I don’t think they will but the point was someone mentioning Teather as potential leader. If there’s a vacancy, she won’t be a runner.
Unless you want to tie up cash for a loong looong time.
Go TNS-BMRB!!!!!
Proper polling!!!!!!
Con overall majority!!!!!
re 181. Don’t waste your money on this. Clegg’s going to hold his seat at the election easily and he’ll be in the job for another ten years.
The next leader of the Lib Dems is not yet an MP.
209 - I know. I totally agree. She has really changed my opinion of her. But personal votes don’t sount for that much. If the Lib Dems do so badly that Clegg resigns, she’ll not win Brent Central.
218- Not that I’ve heard.
re 229 “Telegraph Front Page is not good for Labour.”
Isn’t like that saying that the Pope is a Catholic?
228 - ‘hree Sisters’ hoping against hope that times will be better for them again.
236 - Yes but some are worse than others.
233 Mike S. Come along young Michael. Update on Bedford please.
233 Any views on 199 and Lib Dem chances in Wales? The Lib Dems seem to be having a bit of an effort at Wrexham which is interesting.
228 - Three not hree (bloody laptop keyboards….)
Mike - I agree, I don’t see Clegg going anytime soon which is why Messrs Cable, Huhne, Kennedy are non-starters…I still think that at 16’s she’s worth a punt
234 Mike Smithson
Of course Clegg is going to hold his seat - but I was speaking only of the very long-shots. 33/1 on Kennedy was OK for a very small punt given his age and universal popularity.
185 Alanbrooke, it can be summed up in 2 words
“poll tax”
Margaret Thatcher insisted on introducing it in Scotland first, voted through by English MPs who then boaked at doing so in England a year later. The Scots never forgave her and many still blame the Tory party today. Remember this is a country where people still allow their attitudes to be determined by:
The Massacre of Glencoe (1692)
The Jacobite Risings and Culloden (1688-1746)
The Highland Clearances (1790-1830)
195. What I am telling you is a matter of record on Labour Contact.
I will go further. It is so good for Labour we have not had one person complaining about campaigning or locking themselves away. In fact we were canvassing in 5 wards tonight and every one has now returned the same results.
We keep expecting to find CON>LAB doors but we are not as yet and our sample is now too big to be wrong.
Speaking of budget discipline, the Congressional Budget Office has just stated that Obama’s budget plans are going to result in annual trillion dollar budget deficits as far as the eye can see.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/85237-cbo-estimates-huge-deficits-average-1-trillion-per-year-for-the-next-decade
Result: look for increasing rumblings from the White House and Congress about the regrettable necessity of across-the-board tax increases to stave off fiscal ruin.
I think the real issue in this election will be immigration.
Yes the British people are extremely tolerant, perhaps the most tolerant in the world. But i’m afraid this Labour government has stretched that tolerance to breaking point, and all for a theory.
Thats always been Labour’s weakest point, namely that they are always theorizing. Gut reactions are not allowed because they are seen as reactionary. Good government is always about striking a balance between theory and empiricism.
Tories are too reactionary and prejudiced, and Labour tend to be full of wind and p*ss. Just for once it would be nice if we had government by the ‘Common Sense Party’.
I know the economy is centre stage right now, but recessions do pass as this one will, and the debt will be reduced, at some point. But immigration creates permanent change, and assuaging people’s anger over that is going to be much harder.
Lib Dems “having an effort” or “making an effort” in Wrexham, Punter?
Just curious.
241 - Well the opinion polls in Wales suggest they are wasting their time doing anything other than fighting in Newport, Swansea and their existing seats. But Tom Rippeth is a good quality candidate.
What I don’t know is how the council are seen in Wrexham. Do we have anyone from around that part of North Wales who can tell us how the Lib Dems are doing?
Oh dear, it doesn’t take long for Gordo’s little porkies to be outed now does it?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/7378681/Iraq-inquiry-Army-big-guns-attack-Gordon-Browns-defence-budget-claims.html
“Gordon Brown has been denounced by military chiefs for claiming he gave the Armed Forces all the money they needed.”
“The Prime Minister told the Iraq Inquiry on Friday that defence chiefs “welcomed” his decisions on spending, a claim that was later angrily disputed.”
““To say Gordon Brown has given the military all they asked for is simply not true,” Lord Guthrie, a former chief of the defence staff, writes in The Daily Telegraph.
“He cannot get away with saying I gave them everything they asked for, that is simply disingenuous.
A senior military figure involved in the 2004 spending talks said Mr Brown’s claims were “nonsense.””
con gain wrexham!
i have money on it!!
246. thunder box: What I am telling you is a matter of record on Labour Contact.
Where?
Please note that if you decline to tell us where, we will have no option but to assume that you’re making it up. It wouldn’t be the first time.
234 …Do you not think that if LD’s lose 20 seats or so that Clegg would continue…
246 - Keep ramping. The only person you are deluding is yourself.
245 On different matters when will the Scottish Government get involved with Rugby. Everyone wants to see Scotland competing for honours again. Not every sportsman can be Archie Gemill now. Is there no way to spread the game in the central belt.
185 Alanbrooke
OK I’ll bite - I’m assuming that this is a genuine question?
The answer is extremely complex - articles have been written, and TV programmes made trying to explain it!
I’m not even going to try and summarise it, but elements include - and many of these have been confirmed by Scottish Tory Ministers at the time
Thatcher’s total lack of understanding that Scotland was actually a different country with different institutions. Every previous (and subsequent) PM governed Scotland through the Secretary of State, who interpreted the general thrust of UK social policy, and then applied it appropriately here. Thatcher thought she could determine what was the best social policy (from her very different perspective) and simply apply it here. Her SoSs went through contortions to label the “changes” in such a way that they were actually minimal in effect while persuading her that they were doing her bidding.
That voice!
The poll tax.
The speed of the dismantling of the old inefficient heavy industries, with no regard to the social consequences.
Thatcher’s appearance at the General Assembly (her Scottish advisers desperately tried to persuade her to stay away, but she was adamant). She came up and lectured the Kirk of Scotland on moral values!
That voice!
252 Your money would be surer on Clwyd South.
“Does Gordon Brown have a split personality? Or are there, perhaps, two Gordon Browns? The schizophrenic flavour of the Prime Minister’s evidence to the Chilcot Inquiry was baffling in its contradictions on one central aspect of the Iraq affair. Was Gordon in the loop or was he, as Clare Short told us some time ago, excluded from the main deliberations?”
“http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/geraldwarner/100028626/chilcot-gordon-brown-supported-iraq-war-but-macavity-was-out-mousing-at-key-moments/”
Seems Gordo “courage” Brown was missing at all the key moments
Same ol same ol Brown
re 240. The LD chances in Bedford and Watford very much depend on Labour supporters believing that their incumbent MP can’t win and the only way of stopping the Tories is by going yellow.
So a lot depends on the national situation.
The big mayoral by-election in October left a strong motivated local party which continues to attract activists from elsewhere to work.
Meanwhile some Tory activists say they are going to help Farage in Buckingham - which is only about 35 minutes away.
The YouGov poll is late tonight: are they sulking?
259
oops
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/geraldwarner/100028626/chilcot-gordon-brown-supported-iraq-war-but-macavity-was-out-mousing-at-key-moments/
250 Well yes but it is a long way from North Wales to Swansea. They have zero other targrts in North Wales apart from Wrexham. They won’t go overboard but as they have nothing else to worry about it might be worth a small effort.
“The LD chances in Bedford and Watford very much depend on Labour supporters believing that their incumbent MP can’t win and the only way of stopping the Tories is by going yellow. ”
Which, in part, is why I laughed at this Facebook group:
Tired of being told by manipulated media and opinion polls that the election is a only a two horse race.[...] This group proposes that we turn the tables on the political monopoly of the two main parties and vote for the Liberal Democrats.
Oh, and it says “Facebook has over 20 million UK users who are eligible to vote” but the name of the group includes “4M votes required for historic victory” - so an ambitious target of 20%!
Is there a danger that in the constituencies where Ashcroft has been involved that there may be some backlash AGAINST the Tories and that the £4.5 million pounds may actually result in Gordon being re-elected?
re 234. I can’t see the circumstances in which Clegg won’t continue.
260 Thank you Mike - Your local man on the spot !!
Any value in the odds ??
261. weathercock: The YouGov poll is late tonight: are they sulking?
No daily poll on Fri or Sun nights until the election is called.
245 Easterross
is it really that simple ? ( accepting that it wasn’t a pleasant issue) .
My perception was more that it had been a gradual build up of SLAB playing the nationalist card since 1979 to create a sense of grievance ( helped by SNP - but that’s their job ) whereby the conservatives had no “mandate” for Scotland. Well they didn’t in Wales, North East England but people accepted it as part on the give and take of UK politics.
Labour therefore pushed a dividing line, which they have subsequently been used the other way round by using Scottish votes to impose Labour legislation on England. I can at least respect the SNP who abstain from voting on English legislation.
However all of the above still doesn’t account for the collapse of the Conservative vote.Scots still demand their money is spent effectively. Is it a “clan” thing whereby natural right wing voters have felt betrayed by the UK clan and therefore switched allegiance to the clan closer to home ?
not sure Darling has won his battle with gordo after all
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100004187/so-much-for-applying-windfalls-to-deficit-reduction/
“The Chancellor, Alistair Darling, has promised that any positive surprises in the public finances will be applied to deficit reduction, rather than further spending. So how come the unexpectedly large windfall derived from the tax on bankers’ bonuses – £2.5bn according to a report in the Financial Times – is to be applied to targeted measures to tackle youth unemployment and boost “industries of the future”?”
“Of course, we all know what’s happened here. Mr Darling has been instructed by Gordon “together” Brown to apply whatever he’s got to pre-election spending pledges. After polling day, it’s pretty unlikely to be Mr Darling’s problem anyway.
All the same, it does make a bit of a mockery of the idea that Mr Darling has become his own man, willing to stand up to his bullying next door neighbour in defence of the principles of sound money.”
re 261. There is no daily poll on Fridays. The field work took place today and will be published tomorrow night.
257 - oldnat, and when Brown has gone I am sure there will be many in England that feel the same way about him for a long long time.
265 I am sure the cAshcroft factor will appear in Labour leaflets but TBH I doubt it will have a massive effect - when it comes to accusations about funding I think most voters see it as a case of pots calling kettles black.
265. Ashcroft didnt put any of his money into any constituencies.
271- Could be an interesting test of the media exposure theory. It has been wall-to-wall PM all day. Labour up?
234 …Do you not think that if LD’s lose 20 seats or so that Clegg would continue…
by Davey Tibs March 5th, 2010 at 10:18 pm
Chris Huhne would be in with both feet after his job if they lose 20 seats, which would bring Kennedy right back in.
of course if that Telegraph story is true and the wards closed are in a PFI hospital then we’ll still have to pay for them and probably pay a penalty clause as well to keep them open. Welcome to the mad, mad, mad world of PFI.
227 Vince Cable is more likely to be the next LAbour leader, the party he has never really left in terms of his philosophy.
Once a Glasgow Labour Councillor always a Glasgow Labour Councillor.
I have also been canvassing tonight and have found nothing but wall to wall Conservative voters. In fact, in one Bootle street, so overcome with emotion were they at my Tory presence that they lifted me above their shoulders and proclaimed ‘Praise David! For he is our new God’. I was cheered into the night.
A similar experience was had in nearby Knowsley.
darn, it submitted by mistake…
People are wilfully conflating two issues:
i) Ashcroft has given loads of dosh to the Conservative Party
ii) Ashcroft is in charge of deciding where resources go re: marginal seats.
PPCs from marginal seats are called to CCHQ and have to present a business case, as to what money they need and how they are going to use the money to win. This case is then ripped apart by Ashcroft.
This process alone is equal in value to the cash they get. Ashcroft doesnt give out his own cash to the marginal seats, he directs Party resources.
265 Once the election is called, spending limits come into force and there will be no ‘Ashcroft’ constituencies, and Labour would be foolish to waste money telling voters that their constituency was targetted by Ashcroft before the election - its simply not going to stir anyone (or should I say manyone) into voting anti Tory
277 - isn’t that a Yes Minister plot; a hospital that stays open in order to stay open, but doesn’t actually treat any patients?
245.Easterross, saw this joke on a blog called Constantly Furioushttp://constantlyfurious.blogspot.com/2010/03/cold-weather-scots.html made me laugh out loud, and it does tie in with your point.
Warning, not for those who lack a sense of humour, enjoy.
Cold Weather Scots
The Scots react differently to the cold weather than the English:
At 50°F
People in Southern England turn on the central heating
People in Edinburgh plant out bedding plants
40°F
Southerners shiver uncontrollably
Glaswegians sunbathe on the beach at Largs
35°F
Cars in the South of England refuse to start
People in Falkirk drive with their windows down
20°F
Southerners wear overcoats, gloves and woolly hats
Aberdonian men throw on a t-shirt; girls start wearing mini-skirts
15°F
Southerners begin to evacuate to the continent
People from Dundee swim in the River Tay at Broughty Ferry
0°F
Life in the South grinds to a halt
Inverness folk have the last BBQ before it gets cold
-10°F
Life in the South ceases to exist
People in Dunfermline throw on a light jacket
-80°F
Polar bears wonder if it’s worth carrying on
Boy Scouts in Oban start wearing their long trousers
-100°F
Santa Claus abandons North Pole
People in Stirling put on their ‘long johns’
-173°F
Alcohol freezes
Glaswegians get upset because all the pubs are shut
-297°F
Microbial life starts to disappear
The cows in Dumfriesshire complain about farmers with cold hands
-460°F
All atomic motion stops
Shetlanders stamp their feet and blow on their hands
-500°F
Hell freezes over
Scotland will support England in the World cup
Hat-tip to Wee Keithy, CF’s porridge-wog mate.”
186 “can you explain to me why the Tory brand took such a kicking during the 90s and has struggled to recover”
No doubt there’s specific reasons as well but I think the growth in power of the EU is sparking nationalist sentiment generally and for different reasons seperatist sentiment e.g Vlaams in Belgium, Lega Nord in Italy and the Czech / Slovak split.
276 If the LDs lose 20 seats plus, Hihne is likely to be one of them
274 - I didn’t mention the money going into the constituencies…
278 Easterross. St Vince was a Glasgow Labour Councillor - Who’d have thunk it ?!?!
270 I’m not sure the Tories should get too confident that they have won the battle on the economy. Their position seems to me to be pretty dicey. They have set down a clear dividing line, which is that they will reduce the deficit more quickly than Labour. This is a very silly position for them to take - for two reasons. One is that we don’t yet know how fast Labour proposes to reduce the deficit, so the Tories cannot know what they will have to do to better Labour’s deficit reductions. The second is that the Tories have tied themselves to a target which is under the control of their political opponents.
Consider. In the budget Darling will announce a series of cuts and tax rises aimed at reducing the deficit. The Tories will say that this is not enough - the deficit must be reduced more quickly. But how would they go about that? They have two options.
One is by making larger expenditure cuts than Labour proposes. But cuts are electorally unpopular - it is hard to go into an election campaign proposing larger cuts than either the current government or a significant body of eceonomic opinion thinks is necessary.
So the Tories could fall back on the second way in which the deficit could be cut - they could propose larger tax rises than Labour. But tax rises are electorally unpopular - it is hard to go into an election campaign proposing larger tax rises than either the current government or a significant body of economic opinion thinks is necessary.
The Tories are therefore caught in a position in which they have only bad options. They must either go for larger cuts or bigger tax rises than Labour or abandon their commitment to faster deficit reductions. Taking any of these routes is likely to lose them votes.
285 Huhne too
A VERY depressing article from Matthew Parris this week;
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article7051875.ece
re 282 if only if weren’t real life in Gordon Brown’s PFI madhouse. Wards close in order to afford the mortgage payments to the fat cats and hedge funds the money was borrowed from.
272 Kristin
In terms of “That voice!”, you are probably right.
However, if you listen to what Michael Forsyth says, the other factors are critical. Not to understand the nature of the Scottish community, and to ignore the advice of Ian Lang and others was far and away the biggest problem. It really can’t be stressed enough that she has been the only PM to automatically roll English social policy onto Scottish institutions.
257 oldnat
thanks for the honest appraisal ( also replied to Easterross ). I have a genuine interest in understanding scottish politics. Like you said in one of your earlier posts ( couple of weeks back )anyone who gives 100% commitment to a party is mad. I don’t swallow all the Tory bradaccio but do think this govt needs to go as a priority.
I notice many similarities with what Easterross said - poll-tax and little respect for a different way of viewing things. What I can’t quite understand is why Scots feel they had it worse than anywhere else in the UK ? I can think of many places where the social cohesion issues where just as bad -if not worse- in England.
283 -500F SNP win overall majority in Scotland?
Ref 203 -well that didn`t go according to plan did it …
287 Anything on 200 and 214 for debating?
280..of course ! the £4.5 million he has donated and his role at CCHQ in directing funds to individual constituencies are purely coincidental
Tories need 90 Lab seats, 24 LD seats, 2 SNP seats, 1 KHHC seat.
The YouGov marginal polls showed the Tories winning 95 Labour seats, 5 more than needed.
If - just for now - you assume the Tories will win their top 10 target seats from the LDs, the interesting thing is that targets 11-24 contain 5 LD seats in Cornwall. That’s a third of the seats which could make all the difference for Cameron.
Of course a temperature of -500 °F is not possible
278. Philosophy wise he certainly left the Labour party, he was one of the contributors to the Orange Book (LD market liberal work).
288
1) Labour has said it will tackle the deficit in 2011
2) Who cares what Darling says, he will not be the chancellor after the election, either George Osborne or Ed balls will be.
245 “Remember this is a country where people still allow their attitudes to be determined by:
The Massacre of Glencoe (1692)
The Jacobite Risings and Culloden (1688-1746)
The Highland Clearances (1790-1830)”
I’m convinced scots know more about the
Battle of the Boyne (1690) and the siege of Derry (1688-9) than the above quoted.
Sums up what a fcked up place it is.
296 Punter. Not really and I’m always cautious about polling in Wales and Scotland.
299 neither is an SNP majority in scotland!!!!
284 Mrjones
personally I don’t tghink that applies to Scotland - to me the issues have more to do with the celtic notion of not looking down on others. Each man has the right to respect as an equal.
300 Any views on 241.
If Clegg loses 20 seats, he’ll have to try and fight on or hand back to chat-show Charlie, the only man who could actually get them back right away.
Where are the bots tonight? Come in Gobble.
OT -If you want a flavour of the better national atmosphere that would arise if Cameron became Prime Minister just watch the replay of his Cameron Direct event from Romsey tonight:
http://www.conservatives.com/Get_involved/Cameron_Direct.aspx
288.nickc, both parties should be wary of being caught on the wrong side of any dividing lines they themselves have created, and for purely political reasons rather than due to sensible economic considerations.
256 The Labour Party doesnt like rugby. It is a competitive sport seen as only appropriate for snobs. Labour doesn’t like competition. After all Gordon Brown has never competed for anything in his adult life.
Rugby like cricket is mostly played in the private school system and in a handful of middle class comprehensives.
308 Ashcroft paid them off and then exported them to some island he bought in the south pacific which I think you will find he didn’t pay penny duty on.
Clegg has a ready baked excuse if he did lose 20 seats. He could grumble about it being a difficult election and being squeezed etc.
nikc
Regarding deficit plans, did you see the latest blog from Stephanie Flanders?
“It’s not what you do, it’s the way that you do it. That is the message of a recent contribution to the debate on how and when to cut UK borrowing - from two city economists.
In essence, they say if you’re worried about the economic impact of bringing down the deficit, you need to think hard about the balance between spending cuts and higher taxes….
But there is grandstanding, and there is reasoned argument. This new paper from Ben Broadbent and Kevin Daly, from Goldman Sachs, falls into the second category, even though the Conservatives have inevitably claimed it for their camp…
However, they do think Britain needs to get serious about the deficit - surprise surprise. And, “if past experience is anything to go by the manner in which this is done will have implications for the economy.”
Specifically, “There is a significant body of cross-country evidence suggesting that during the transition, the economy fares better in corrections driven by reductions in current spending - better, even, than when no correction is made - than in those driven by cuts in investment or higher taxes.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/03/taking_the_defecit_seriously.html
288 I’d say they definitely haven’t won the economic argument. They *were* winning it before Christmas but then took their eye off the ball.
307 Come off it, David! Charles Kennedy has about as much chance of becoming the next Lib Dem leader as Jack W has!
Sorry, but he is a busted flush. There is no way he could make a comeback, because although all the Tories on here (and elsewhere) praise him to the skies now that he is gone, they would make mincemeat of him, and the Lib Dems, if he led them again.
“How odd that the Lib Dems have gone back to the retread Kennedy! Shows their lack of talent…..and he still has a “problem”, you know.”
288. All cuts are not necessarily unpopular eg reinstatement of the EU rebate would be universally popular. The renegotiation was possibly one of the most abject surrenders that Blair & Brown ever connived over.
@234
I completely agree Mike, Nick has made great strides as leader over the past 12 months and should be entirely safe in the job. He has my complete support.
People have forgotten that at our nadir in 06/07 we were frequently polling at around 15/16%, Clegg’s leadership has played an instrumental part in reviving our fortunes. I point sceptics to the party leader’s approval ratings. Clegg is at least on a par with Cameron at present and I genuinely expect him to overtake him on these scores post the TV debates.
I also happen to agree that the next Lib Dem leader is not yet in Parliament… Any odds for Andrew Lewin?!
269 Alanbrooke I often think that Jim Murphy is a perfect mirror to Michael Forsyth, gratuitous insult from the dying regime.
Gosh doesn’t that Dutch racist Geerd Wilders look like Lucius Malfoy
266 Mike given that the LibDems ditched their most successful leader for leading them to their highest number of seats in 80 years, if Nick Clegg leads the LibDems to less than 40 seats do you seriously think they wouldnt ditch him just as quickly.
If it’s not been already mentioned, Bob Wareing has announced he will not contest L’pool West Derby…
293.Alan, any Tory recovery up in Scotland will be driven by the Runrig generation, they were the students up here back in the late 70’s and early 80’s. And although they may now have a memory lapse and now say they never voted Tory in their lives, they are probable fibbing. But they are now middle aged and middle class, and they are now remembering why they did nip down and vote Tory back then in Thatcher’s heyday. Out canvassing last year, had a prime example of this, I was told to stick one householder down as a Tory voter next time because deep down, they were always one of Thatcher’s children.
316 Augustus. The ancestors would be spinning in their tombs at the prospect of moi leading the Whigs !!
“141 ” Tim uses his intelligence to distort facts/tell porkies/ramp etc ”
No different to 90% of the Conservatives who post on here then .”
I’ve noticed that although you get partisan Tory loyalists on here, you do get a lot who aren’t afraid to critically analyse their own side.
However, I have never seen you criticise the Lib Dems or Tim criticise Labour. It’s just constant anti-Tory rhetoric.
Chilcot starts to unravel for Brown
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7052033.ece
re 325. Be fair - Tim is very anti-Brown.
324 Taking a different tack. Any thoughts on the Lib Dems and the north of england at all.
324 Yours and mine both, Jack….
293 Alanbrooke
When Alex Salmond made his (politically ill advised) remark that “We (ie Scots) didn’t mind the economic side so much. But we didn’t like the social side at all”, he actually answered your point.
The economic thing was bad for most of the north of the UK. We suffered from it as did the North of England, but that wasn’t unique to Scotland. It was the social policy that was the core of the problem. Thatcher simply didn’t understand the ways in which Scotland was different - and had always been so.
I have always thought that if Scotland had gained Home Rule after WWII in response to the Covenant Association, the Nationalist movement would never have gathered strength. I’m afraid it’s the same old story for the UK. Too slow to recognise the need for constitutional change, and consequently failure to keep control.
The Velvet Divorce is something that people should bear in mind. Czechs (=English) and Czechoslovaks (=British) were unwilling to accommodate the need for autonomy by the Slovaks (=Scots). Despite only around 37% of both those in Czechia and Slovakia having dissolution of the Union as their first preference, it occurred because of the larger partner wanting to centralise power.
a lot of people are anti-tim!
326 The Times leader though MTF is slightly pathetic.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article7051887.ece
Apparently gordon made a robust defence. Poor journalism/daft comment.
292 oldnat\ Kristin
well if it goes on voices in England I say “have a nice day” and they think I’ve given them 5 minutes to pack up and leave the house. The joys of an Ulster accent !
Where I miss the logic oldnat is why divorce ? While I think Thatcher took some hard but mostly correct decisions on the economy the social cohesion side sucked. Despite the rhetoric, she set off the trend to centralisation. Everybody is fed up with people in far-off offices taking local decisions; why wouldn’t Scots be satisfied with a “confederal” union rather than a “federal” one ? And do you really think the EU will treat you better ?
302 88
Only in bits of it where there was immigration from Ulster.
328 Punter. I’ll reply to that tomorrow if I may.
329 Augustus.
Good Nite All
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
314 I didn’t see this, but I’m not sure a bank is the best source of advice on this point. I agree that expenditure cuts are an essential part of the solution but IMO tax rises are also necessary. Tax rises on the poor are highly deflationary; tax rises on the rich are also deflationary, but to a lesser extent (the rich respond to tax rises by reducing saving, whilst the poor reduce spending). Therefore it is more sensible from a policy perspective to raise taxes on the rich. You would not expect Goldman Sachs to support this position.
311 Easterross
You do know how Brown lost the sight in his eye don’t you?
YEEESS
Gary Sykes wins for Yorkshire
Good night this
299.ChrisA, lets not let the facts get in the way of a good joke.
Seriously, we had a whole 30 min comedy addressing the world cup last time, one mention of 1966, and the rest of it was devoted to taking the mickey out of ourselves and our Scotland team.
I can say with certainty, that any jokes about our team that can be found down South will not be as funny as the ones home manufactured up here.
One day, we will qualify for tournament, and the Tartan army will not make it home before the postcards hit the doormats. We can only dream…. maybe this time around.
re 321. Clegg’s ratings are better than Kennedy’s. You have a a serious blind-spot on anything to do with the Lib Dems.
I loathed Kennedy and thought he was totally pathetic and the very first post on PB six years ago was about him. He had a brilliant opportunity when Blair was in trouble over Iraq and the Tories were saddled with IDS - yet he couldn’t be arsed.
Now we know that he liked the sauce too much.
I have grown to like Clegg though I was a sceptic at first.
269 no the poll tax was the turning point. In 1983 we had 21 seats and almost 1 million votes. We had the miners strike and the closure of the Scottish steel industry but that didnt affect Tory held seats. Then in 1986 Margaret Thatcher changed the social security system and the following year we lost 11 of our 21 seats.
She followed that with the introduction of the poll tax in 1989 and we had riots. In 1992 we managed to win back Aberdeen South but then in 1997 we had the wipe out. In 2005 we would have won back 2 or 3 seats on the old boundaries but the new boundaries were a step too far. This year is the year we may finally shake off Thatcherism and win back some of the seats we frankly should never have lost.
Consider that we held seats like East Renfrewshire with an 11,000 majority, Dumfries with a 9,000 majority and Edinburgh Pentlands with a 5,000 majority so losing them all was rather overwhelming for us. As a party we are probably only now recovering from that level of defeat.
334 oldnat
LOL - you can’t say that ! take back all your Paisleys ( town in Scotland ) Irvines ( town in Scotland ) Campbells ( v. Scottish ) and then tell the rest of us why you Scots make trouble wherever you go !
LDs =
318 - Problem is that we’re still seeing regular polls around 16/17 points.
I happen to not think that’s a major problem as long as the Lib Dem campaign is good but if Chris Huhne keeps on appearing on telly so often it won’t be.
340. Clegg was far and away he best choice for the LDs, even if they made it by accident.
He gets better. Huhne [and Cable] get worse.
343 - how did I know that you would post something like that.
I have a request. Can we have a moratorium on the use of the word “staffer”?
345 - The problem I think for the Lib Dems is that the next few years could be a period of some difficulty for them.
345 I agree with comments about Huhne but they have GOT to get Cable out there on the TV screens…for a start he’s just about the only LibDem that Joe Public can recognise
333 Alanbrooke
All the polling suggests that most Scots would be happy with a confederal solution. The SNP are happy to put “Devo Max” to a referendum along with independence. There can’t be a confederal solution, however, without England revisiting its constitutional arrangements.
See my points about Czechia/Slovakia above.
337 Brown was a middle class boy though wasn’t he?
Seem to recall he boasted about his mother’s capitalist roots, director of a family firm, and his father as local minister was a prominent citizen.
346
So Labour are not going to damage front line services, really?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/7379983/Hundreds-of-NHS-wards-to-be-shut-in-secret-plans.html
349 - It is difficult though because his reputation such as it is is largely because he is seen as somewhat above the fray. If the Lib Dems overuse him then that will eliminate his public perception and thus deny the Lib Dems the credence he purports to give them.
Personally I think Cable is massively overrated but there you go.
My national unity govt
Darling Pm
Cable COE
Warsi HS
Landslide
341 Easterross
( also posting same topic oldnat 333 )
You honestly think it was the poll tax, or was the polltax the straw that broke the camel’s back ? I have asked oldnat why Scots think they had a worse deal than other areas of the UK.
I joked with Christina that the SNP were basically UKIP in Scotland ( ie mostly Tory voters who felt betrayed )if so what does Cameron have to do to heal the rift ?
342 Alanbrooke
The whole point about getting rid of our troublemakers elsewhere was that they would make their trouble elsewhere! Then we got the buggers back in the late 19th century!
350: oldnat @ 23:09
What do you see as the blocks to England agreeing to a confederated UK and making the necessary changes?
349 He was foaming about ashcroft a couple of days ago davey, isn’t that enough.
How uplifting is the Angles spring!
The daffodils doth pierce the earth,
That hath frozen o’er in winter’s time
The joy, the warmth, the mirth!
Hi SallyC. Best. Tory. Ever. Xxx
340.”Clegg’s ratings are better than Kennedy’s. You have a a serious blind-spot on anything to do with the Lib Dems.”
Mike, that should set alarm bells ringing. Kennedy had a high profile with the public, as did Ashdown. On his day when he couldn’t be arsed, he still got the votes for the yellow peril piling in exactly the right places in the right constituencies. He managed that equidistant with the other parties over Iraq as a major defining issue that has eluded his successors.
Seriously, don’t knock Easterross on this one, the way that Kennedy was deposed really harmed the Libdems in Scotland. And I suspect that their current travails in the polls up here is as linked to that as their performance in Holyrood. Neither Campbell or Clegg have managed to make themselves as visible or high profile.
Did you see the response of the ITN news focus group last night? As another poster on here put it, Clegg’s ratings are misleading because they are actually telling us that no one knows what he stands for, and therefore they cannot be negative about him as a result. But that doesn’t translate into a reason to vote for his party at the next GE.
Even now, there is still a very clear fondness for Kennedy up here, and I expect him to be used rather than Clegg in some seats in the GE campaign in Scotland.
Brown is actually the President of the Houses of Parliament rugby team.
Brown is actually the President of the Houses of Parliament rugby team.
Rare betting question from me, chaps:
If I wanted to place a custom bet on someone very obscure to one day lead the Labour Party, who is the best bookmakers to arrange that with? Sort of in a similar vein to those chaps that get offered 10,000 to 1 on their son playing football to England.
355 - I suspect you have been ingesting some dangerous and illegal substances if you think that.
358 HurstLlama
I have no idea!
It seems quite obvious to me, that if you want to keep Scotland (and Wales) within the UK, then you would want to look at what you want from the Union.
287 Jack I have very happy memories of Lord Strathclyde’s father tanning Saint Vince’s hyde in Glasgow Hillhead in 1970. Vince belonged to the most spiteful, class “warrior” Labour council group Glasgow has had in my lifetime, one which put their collective hatred of educational excellence ahead of encouraging thousands of kids from deprived backgrounds accessing the best education money could buy at almost no expense.
361. To be fair Iraq was an absolute gift.
353 What’s a frontline service? Ambulance driver? Ambulance controller? Manager of the ambulance service? Where do you draw the line?
No two people will agree on the definition, which is why “frontline service” is a catch-all defence against virtually any cut in expenditure.
I wonder what level of tan Cameron will be sporting next on TV ?
369 Reminds me of a scene from Yes Minister where Sir Humphrey discourses on the difference between a loss of amenity and a significant loss of amenity.
360. Tx
Bobojob is a happy drunk!
We are mates!
XxX
336 nickc
Yeah, bankers seem to have lost their authority lately for some reason!
On the other hand its still worth listening as they will have all the figures and that report is based on past case studies so there is a limited amount of interpretation.
Of course when taxed higher the rich can move abroad or stop working so much / take a career break, etc. I know a number of people lately who were in well paid jobs who have simply taken 6 months / 1 year off - not good for the economy.
This isn’t the first TNS poll, by the way.
They conducted one a couple of weeks ago, over 18 Feb to 24 Feb, which had a four point Tory lead.
http://www.tnsglobal.com/news/news-8E2C4F76765E4553BB28F1558710EB04.aspx
Stunning Paddy Power offer to refund all losing singles on the Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham if the odds on favourite wins.
Peter tipped Menorah here if I remember rightly and he’s available at 11/1.
I’m on.
374 Hi Joe
We know.
But welcome.
369 I would say closing a ward is affecting a front line service. Good luck arguing differently.
350 oldnat
thanks for that, I find it a very useful insight.
I have worked quite a lot in the Czech Republic ( car industry Mlada Boleslav ) I regret to say the velvet divorce wasn’t so plush. The Czechs mostly won’t give the Slovaks the time of day. And vice versa .
I suppose that is my big concern re Scotland\UK. I just can’t see how it benefits Scots; whiskey nationalism yes - we’ll all say anything after a bottle but Scotland’s voice carries more force in the UK because it amplifies than just by itself.
But reference the confederal system I genuinely think most english people have had enough and would like to return to local government with good neighbour relations. SLAB have have taken Scotland’s poll tax revenge though most Scots probably don’t see that.
247 - Stars - this cannot possibly be true. I have it on the highest authority that health care reform will result in cheaper and better health care, accessible by all.
I cannot believe that you would indulge in such calumny about our esteemed president…..
well, I can dream can’t I? Sigh…..at least I think that’s what I heard…sometimes memory plays tricks.
The proof of the pudding is in the eating - the criteria for reconciliation include the bill having a substantial effect on the budget.
I still think it’s a monumental miscalculation to try to force this through, but we’ll see.
Maybe he’s being advised by that nice misunderstood poor Mr Rangel….
376. Hi SallyC
You’ll excuse me if I don’t read through 373 comments to find out if the other poll has been discovered.
But thanks.
My ‘j’ has gone funny.
I think it’s because a 40lb dog stood on it ??? but I’m not very technical.
300 Corporeal, Vince Cable spouts the same left wing rubbish he supported and which did so much damage in Glasgow up to 1977. Indeed he and his pals were so successful that in 1977 for the first time in a generation Labour was turfed out and Glasgow was then run for the next 2 1/2 years by a Tory-SNP coalition.
357 oldnat
you are experienced enough to know that what goes round comes around !
366: oldnat @ 11:18
Thanks for that. For what it is worth, I don’t believe the majority of English voters are particularly fussed about the Union. If Scotland, Wales or NI said they wanted to leave it the people of England would wish them well. The Union is still only in existence because none of the nationalist parties can secure a majority vote for independence.
Constitutional change, is however, now required. The arrangements made for the 18th century just aren’t up to what is needed for the 21st. The problem is that it is not in the interest of any Westminster based politician to bring in the radical reforms that are needed. Maybe a Scottish vote for “Devo max” could be the trigger for real change, but I doubt it.
373 I really don’t think governments should be held to ransom by threats of rich people moving abroad. The number who might do this is not large enough to be significant IMO - most people have family ties, jobs in London etc etc. And you do wonder if people’s loyalty to the UK is so weak that they will leave to avoid a relatively small increase in tax rates - do most people really care if they go? I doubt it.
323 ChristinaD
sorry Christina just seen your post.
At the risk of asking for death the person who most fits the profile is Malcolm. Some of his posts make even me step back. He is the son of Teddy Taylor !
369. And, an organisation with too little administration has scope to be far less efficient then one with to much. A competitive market place tends to force businesses to reach the right equilibrium, but the public sector has no effective equivalent. Management just expands and expands, and expands until the funding is tightened, and then management connive to keep their own jobs, and propose the most politically damaging cuts.
A couple of Brownies yesterday.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/7379138/The-evidence-does-not-support-Gordon-Browns-claims.html
383 Alanbrooke
True - there are always benefits from immigration, however. We got Kristin!
305.”personally I don’t tghink that applies to Scotland - to me the issues have more to do with the celtic notion of not looking down on others. Each man has the right to respect as an equal.”
Alan, a man who understands the old Clan system up here.
#288 PBR 2009 Summary Fiscal Projections [Table 1.1] PSNB figures:
2009-10 12.6% GDP
2010-11 12.0% GDP
2011-12 9.1% GDP
2012-13 5.5% GDP
2013-14 4.4% GDP
[Excludes the temporary effect of financial interventions.]
385. But some of these people pay massive amounts of tax, even if only on earnings they have in the UK, their businesses employ people, their taxes pay for schools and hospitals.
Your mentality seems to remind me of the kind that justified marginal tax rates of 90%+, if they dont like it they can leave etc.
379- Setting aside any arguments about whether it was politically astute for Obama to launch his healthcare crusade amid a ruinous economic debacle, I think you’re highlighting the biggest substantive mistake he made in the process: claiming, as you put it, that “health care reform will result in cheaper and better health care, accessible by all.”
Nobody who has graduated from sixth grade can possibly believe that the government is going to make healthcare 1) cheaper, 2) better, and 3) universal. By making this logic-bending argument, Obama undermined the credibility of the entire plan and drove public approval of the effort into the basement. That, in turn, scared the daylights out of Democratic senators and representatives in Washington who still can’t figure out how to pass this thing in spite of their overwhelming numbers.
And if anybody thinks that the $500 billion in Medicare cuts that are supposed to make the bill “budget-neutral” will really happen, well, those might be the same folks who believed Obama’s moonbeams and lollipops healthcare sales job in the first place.
384 HurstLlama
I suspect you are right. There are a few Nats who seem to think that you lot are “out to get us”! The reality is that Scotland will probably end up independent at some point simply because you don’t give a sh!t.
375…check out Professor Higgins in the 4.55 at Doncaster tomorrow…
384 Hurst Llama
I’m not sure I would agree with that. Most English people if you talk to them in a pub see the Celtic fringe as a tax reduction. However push them harder and you find divorce is no easier this side of the fence than anywhere else; they instinctively understand England is a lesser place without its neighbours. What they have given up on is telling the Celtic fringe what to do. They are more comfortable on accepting variety.
Scotland =
I really don’t think governments should be held to ransom by threats of rich people moving abroad. The number who might do this is not large enough to be significant IMO -
by nickc March 5th, 2010 at 11:32 pm
What do you mean by rich? Lots of us are in more friendly tax environments who are certainly not in the Lord Paul or Ronnie Cohen league.
And how do you stop them? Take away their liberty to free movement? Confiscate their wealth?
I think this was tries before. And the result was….. less wealth in the country and less tax take.
394. Its a shame, because i like Scotland, i like the Scottish people, I truly see them as my brethren, and that comes from our shared history, and implied, shared future.
260 Mike S “Meanwhile some [Bedford] Tory activists say they are going to help Farage in Buckingham”
Is it possible that, given the kind of activist who would want to help Farage in Buckingham, this might assist the Conservatives in Bedford?
Out on a drunk limb here but the next ARPO poll is going
to show a big move to Labout. 3% or so.
337 Oldnat indeed. Gordon Brown is old enough to have participated in the selective education system which his party abolished in Scotland in 1972. To her eternal shame, Margaret Thatcher was the Tory education secretary who allowed the Labour controlled Cosla (or whatever it was called then) to do so.
ol just seen this
True - there are always benefits from immigration, however. We got Kristin!
by oldnat March 5th, 2010 at 11:35 pm
Ya wee sook
399 notme
But don’t you have a shared history with the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands (neither in the UK), or with Eire for that matter. what’s this obsession with political unity?
401 - Tim, Oh I don’t doubt it as I expect the people polled have been informed of the positive reasons to vote Labour.
If you know what they are would you share with us?
385 I think this country would be a lot better off if some of the gangster billionaires who flocked here because of the city shunted off somewhere else. They’re a corrupting influence imo.
401 ‘big move to Labout’?
You mean an increased tory lead?!!!!
401 tim - ASDA Hermitage?
316.Augustus, like the other parties made mincemeat of the SNP when they brought back a known charismatic and high profile leader after the Swinney years?
327.Gulp, I am going to disagree with Mike twice in one night. tim wouldn’t be on here working this hard if he was genuinely critical of Brown or his premiership. Sorry, if Labour win, Brown stays….
333.Alan Maggie Thatcher is remembered and reviled for the poll tax, and yet her most successful policy while in Office saw the biggest uptake in Scotland. And this has now come to an end, but again, some will remember that she allowed them to buy their own home.
400. No, I think anyone who has witnessed the transformation of Bercow in recent years from within the Conservative Party, would happily assist a man who at least has the virtue of consistency.
403 Kristin
Got me in one!
395 - Thanks, I’ll take a look at that
410 chris_g00 - At the expense of helping Gordon Brown?
390 ChristinaD
I have grandfather born in Scotland, a parent form either side of the Irish border, an english wife and a daughter living in Wales - so I tend to see my self as british .
I have been raised with a positive view of Scotland, but notice increasingly the needless acrimony pushed into the relationship. The irritation of english people ( as all Europeans will agree! ) is they never say what they really mean. My concern is that pushing the English too hard the Scots will end up with a different situation than they expected. For example I wanted to take a break in Scotland this summer - but my kids look at me as if I want to go to Baghdad - they see it as a hostile place !!
413.How so? Bercow is not a Conservative.
396: Alanbrooke @ 23:41
People in pubs understanding England as a lesser place without the neighbours? You must drink in some very odd boozers!
Anyway, as it appears that there is no majority in any of the constituent parts for independence and no evidence that one is likely in the foreseeable future, the question is academic.
The need for radical constitutional reform, probably based on more devolution to all parts of the Union and, possibly, a confederated state, is real and, in my view, becoming urgent. However, no Westminster politician will benefit from initiating the change, so it won’t happen.
392 Taxes on income in this country are not excessive IMO. The state provides a high standard of education, healthcare, law and order, roads etc etc at a relatively modest cost. The tax system is an essential ingredient of our civilised society. Of course 90% rates are far too high, but threatening to leave because the state is asking for 50% of incomes over £150k is outrageous.
395 - I can’t find a 4.55 at Donny tomorrow…
Richard
in Alderley Edge that’s what they call water, it’s a big step up from Adams Ale
415 chris - No, but (a) Bedford needs a Conservative win, (b) the very last thing the Conservatives need in the longer term is a UKIP toehold in parliament, and (c) If Bercow were to lose against a minor party/independent, that’s one extra seat which Cameron has to win.
This is not a game, this is about the future of the UK. It really is time to get serious.
416 HurstLlama
There wasn’t a majority for independence in Czechia or Slovakia either!
Spot on there Richard.
419 - tim, an area where I imagine IHT is a great concern and you won’t be finding many Labour voters.
billionaires who flocked here because of the city shunted off somewhere else. They’re a corrupting influence imo.
by MrJones March 5th, 2010 at 11:47 pm
Lord Nondom Brown donator, Mittal, Bernie…. are these the ones you mean?
416 Hurst LLama
see post 399 and maybe change your pub. Genetically St Andrews Cross and St Patrick’s Cross are woven in the DNA of England - it’s a shame we haven’t got St David in yet !
Setting aside the ethnicity I think you are right most people think it’s time for a new constitutional settlement. The demand is for less centralisation amd more response to local needs wherever you live. Funnily enough I’m more of an optimist than you as I think voters will force parties to respond to their demand. Indeed I would rather be in a Confederation with Anglo Celt states like Canada, Aus NZ than in a Union with Europe as the Anglo Celts have a largely common set of values and and believe in live and let live.
420.a) agreed, a few activists driving half an hour up the road to rid parliament of one of it’s worst troughers can only help restore parliaments battered reputation.
b) I don’t agree. Thr tories need to be kept on their toes over Europe. It was the Conservatives who signed Single European Act, Maastricht Treaty. A threat from their right might give them greater pause for thought, and may alter the terms of the Europe debate to our advantage. In as much as, the ‘extreme’ label put on us by Labour, won’t wear quite as well, indeed we’ll be seen as moderates in comparison to UKIP
c) If the price is having a tory majority reduced by 1 or 2 is that we get rid of Bercow, then it is a price well worth paying.
“This is not a game, this is about the future of the UK. It really is time to get serious”
*Wears serious expresssion*
424 I was thinking of the russians mostly.
421: oldnat @ 23:58
OK, so by what route do you see the Union between England and Scotland being broken when the majority of the people in either country haven’t voted for it?
414.Alan, but who is doing the pushing on political sites like this?
Seriously, if the problems up here or down South could simple be solved by blaming the neighbours and moving because there is perception that they have got a nicer shade of green grass, its poor argument. We all bring something to the rich tapestry that is the United Kingdom.
424 Witan
What the hell is “a donator”, on this side of the pond?
Poor show from someone naming themself after the Anglo-Saxon Council!
414 Alanbrooke. “For example I wanted to take a break in Scotland this summer - but my kids look at me as if I want to go to Baghdad - they see it as a hostile place !!”
Some English people get the wrong end of the stick, I’m afraid. Scotland has legitimate grievances which sometimes get expressed in funny little ways like supporting whichever football team England are playing. On the other side, all this carp from some English people about “subsidizing” the Scots doesn’t help the atmosphere either.
If the Scottish people decide democratically that they want to leave the UK then who am I to say to them that they can’t, but I’m a unionist and would be gutted if Scotland left the UK, since it punches above its weight (and always has) and we’d be all be the poorer IMHO.
What we in England can do is recognize that mistakes have been made and try to rebuild a constitution broken by Labour into one which gives all the constituent nations of the UK a feeling of worth and fairness.
414 Alanbrooke a final comment before signing off. As a Scottish Tory my greatest fear remains that having created the Scottish Parliament Tony Blair started a train that can only go one way, to independence. I dont think the Scots will leave. I think the English will throw us out.
The only real hope now for saving the UK is ironically the 1970s Liberal Party idea of a Federal Britain.
I have lived in a LibDem held constituency all my adult life and indeed live in 1 of 2 seats which are likely to be the least likely to be lost by the LibDems.
20% of LibDem seats are in Scotland. English LibDems might not like it but Charles Kennedy is a household name in Scotland and after Alex Salmond probably the most popular politician. I have known him for 31 years. He was a heavy drinker in 1978. It didnt prevent him becoming World Debating Champion and last President of GUU before they were forced to let women in. Incidentally he led the campaign to keep them out. As Christina said, the Scottish LibDems are going to suffer in May because of the way they treated Charles Kennedy. The rot started in 2007 when they lost 3 FPTP seats. They will certainly lose, not gain seats in Scotland at the GE.
Goodnight all.
420.Bercow to win, and first and foremost because he appears to be a popular MP locally. And of course because he was Tory where UKIP are now cynically trying to beat a Speaker with one hand tied behind his back. Just not cricket to be honest. Farage should have picked a fairer fight.
What an utterly chilling interview by Geert Wilders on Newsnight tonight. If I had any doubts that he was an extremist before I saw that, I’m absolutely certain he is now.
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2881015/Shock-death-of-former-Glasgow-council-chief-Steven-Purcells-pal-Danus-McKinlay.html
434 James Kelly
what was he saying? Did the interviewer get anywhere with him?
434. James what did he say? Is he as frightening as the press reports make him out to be?
Kristin-don’t presume that everyone who will benefit from that think it is right.
Sadly I think there’s a missing of the main story going on here again
It being that the Sun resurrected Brown and Camerons missteps have accelerated the process.
Unbelievable 6 months ago but true now.
288.
Your argument is based on a false premise, namely that Labour gets to determine th timeline for deficit reduction. They don’t. The destination of travel is eradication of the entire structural deficit. The Conservatives should be pressing Labour on how they intend to reduce the other 50% of the deficit. It isn’t sufficient nor satisfactory for Labour to say they will half the deficit over a parliament and leave it there - what about the rest? If they intend to still be running a 7% deficit in 5 years time, Labour should justify the extra debt burden incurred. The Tory position of eradicating the deficit over a parliament is more credible, fiscally responsible and clearer politically. If they can explain their position with a touch more clarity, and ask the right questions of Labour, they are well and truly on the right side of the argument.
429/431
I speak not as an englishman, but someone who lives in England and observes. The Celtic\Calvinist? tradition of needling each other ( yes it happens ) isn’t understood South of the Border. It’s why James ends up in a Civil war with half the bloggers on this site.
My concern is probably the same as your own, that what passes for heavy nationalism ( 10 pints of heavy and I’m a nationalist ) doesn’t go down well here. You see the reaction when people turn to Scotland ( parish council etc. ) on PB which is simply mirroring what they have had shoved in their faces. My base position is there is no profit in divorce and those who push natioanl anatagonism into it are playing a dangerous game.
435.
Was this intentional, this is a copy and paste:
“The news is believed to have been broken to gay Purcell”
Is that someone at the Scottish Sun trying to get a story out under the editors nose?
432. I’ve been intrigued by Mike pointing out a couple of times recently that Clegg currently has better ratings than Kennedy, but then when he pointed out how much he’s disliked Kennedy all along I started wondering about the credibility of that. Most people don’t have a clue who Clegg is, so if you subtract the people who have a negative view of him from those who have a positive one, you can produce a superficially rosy picture, but there’s no real depth to it. It’s very hard to believe that Clegg is a vote-magnet in the way that Kennedy was, and while I’m sure he’ll perform competently in the debates, it’s such a wasted opportunity for the Lib Dems not to have a more charismatic leader in place at this particular moment.
432 Easterross
thanks and good night, from my side it has been most appreciated.
An interesting comment from tim yesturday:
“My first daughter was born by emergency caesarian, she cried for thirty six hours.The midwives noticed my wife and I desperately needed some sleep, and we thought we needed to stay awake.
They took her away for a bath until we’d fallen asleep, left us, and brought back a new calm baby and gave her back to us when we woke up, relaxed.
I f~cking love the NHS.”
Now my personal experiences, plus those I’ve heard from people I know, of the NHS range from the excellent to the crap.
Not unexpectedly in such a large organisation.
I do sense though that there are some people who for various reasons (good personal experiences? political beliefs? class guilt? emotional idiocy?) form some sort of mystical worship of the NHS which makes them intolerant of any criticism of the NHS and of the people who might have justifiable reasons for being critical of it.
Now I think Cameron might be one of these people, largely through his experiences with his disabled son, and this in turn has led to the cuts everywhere else but never on health policy.
But the NHS isn’t universally popular and several times in the last few weeks I’ve overhead conversations where people have disagreed that the NHS should be exempt from the same cuts other areas will be facing.
441.
Purcell’s sexuality is well known. To the extent no one really cares about it.
442 - I agree. The idea that Clegg is a plus over Kennedy is probably a view from inside the English Liberal Democrats.
Voter recognition is important and I bet Clegg is not recognised by many outside of a very small group of political obsessives.
428 HurstLlama
A route something like this -
Scots decide (in an election or referendum) that they want more control over their own affairs (these from ICM June 2009)
“Who do you think should make most of the important decisions for Scotland about income tax, the Scottish Government in Edinburgh or the UK Government at Westminster?” Holyrood 62% Westminster 34%
“Who do you think should make most of the important decisions for Scotland about old age pensions, the Scottish Government in Edinburgh or the UK Government at Westminster?” Holyrood 65% Westminster 32%
“Who do you think should make most of the important decisions for Scotland about defence and foreign affairs, the Scottish Government in Edinburgh or the UK Government at Westminster?” Holyrood 35% Westminster 63%
Westminster refuses to accede - or even negotiate.
437. He wants to ban the Koran, and there was talk of stripping Muslims of Dutch citizenship in certain circumstances. He says Islam isn’t a religion, can’t be compared to Christianity or Judaism and should be treated instead as a totalitarian regime.
440. “It’s why James ends up in a Civil war with half the bloggers on this site.”
You seem to have a bee in your bonnet about me today, Alan! It’s 1% at most, and as I’m sure you know I have a rather different interpretation to yours of how these ‘wars’ begin…
445. I care if it involves eighteen year old boys who die suddenly.
Chilcot reports remind me of this:
Macavity the Mystery man
Macavity’s a Mystery man: he’s called the Hidden Maw–
For he’s the politician who’s making us so poor,
He’s the bafflement of all of us, the voters keen despair:
For when another mess appears–Macavity’s not there!
Macavity, Macavity, there’s no one like Macavity,
He’s broken every bank we have with happy regularity
His clumsy plans would make a crooked banker stare,
But when another mess appears–Macavity’s not there!
You may seek him in the bunker, you may look up in the air–
But I tell you once and once again, Macavity’s not there!
Macavity’s a pompous prat, and thinks he’ll always win,
But you’d know him if you saw him, for his eyes are sunken in.
His brow is deeply lined with thought, his head is highly domed;
His coat is dusty from neglect, his hair is oft uncombed.
He sways his head from side to side, mouth moving like two snakes;
At PMQs he’s on his feet, but an answer never makes.
Macavity, Macavity, there’s no one like Macavity,
For he’s a curse in human shape, a spinner of reality.
You may meet him in a by-street, you may see him in the square–
But when a crisis comes upon us, then Macavity’s not there!
He’s outwardly respectable. (But does create some lords)
But his nasty deeds are found on many bloggers’ boards.
And when the budget’s looted, or his successes oversold,
Or when army kit is missing, or another lie’s been told,
Or the British Banks are broken, and the debts are past repair–
Ay, there’s the wonder of the thing! Macavity’s not there!
And when the Lisbon Treaty has sadly gone astray,
Or the MoD lose their discs and data by the way,
There may be a scap of paper in the hall or on the stair–
But it’s useless to investigate–Macavity’s not there!
And when the loss has been disclosed, the press might even say:
“It must have been Macavity!”–but he is miles away.
You’ll be sure to find him resting, or a-biting of his nails,
Or hiding in his bunker banging out emails.
Macavity, Macavity, there’s no one like Macavity,
Was there ever such a deceitful lack of suavity.
He always has an alibi, or one or two to spare:
And whatever time the deed took place–MACAVITY WASN’T THERE!
And they say that all the ones whose wicked deeds are known
(I might mention that McPoison, I might even mention Mandy’s own)
Are nothing more than agents following his spinning line
Allowing Macavity to smirk and hide this and every time.
447. Who should be responsible for the primary funding of Scottish pensions and Scottish services, the Scottish taxpayer or the British taxpayer?
Those are push polls, you embarrass yourself by repeating them.
432.”20% of LibDem seats are in Scotland. English LibDems might not like it but Charles Kennedy is a household name in Scotland and after Alex Salmond probably the most popular politician.”
Easterross, growing up and spending my formative political years in Russell Johnson’s seat, I probable understand the words incumbency + yellow peril better than some young Libdemmers these days!
Whisper it quietly, but despite being a dyed in the wool Tory from my teenage years, would I have been tempted to vote for Russell if I had remained in his constituency when it mattered? I cannot be 100% sure that I would not have seen the pen wobble over his name in the ballot box back then! And even now we just have to look at the great swathe of yellow up in that part of Scotland and leaning towards the North East. But list the names of any of the other current Libdem MP’s herer, and I reckon that only Malcolm Bruce might jig a memory as a former high profile Libdem in other parts of Scotland, never mind down South.
But ask anyone if they have heard of Charles Kennedy or an issue connected with him, and I suspect that there would be a high recognition factor. I put Clegg or Tavish Scott in the bracket of the other Libdems up here, and that is a real problem for the party North and South of the border.
447 oldnat
I think westminster would negotiate, it’s just you wouldn’t think it a good deal. Then the cruncher - do you take the Indedpendence but poverty option or better off but stay in the union ?
As you well know the balance sheet split is the big issue and nobody wants to carry the cost.
448 James
Thanks
Papers look poor for Brown tomorrow. I always think it is a bad idea to try and take the military on.
444.
I think / hope he’s playing a cannier game than that. We all know health spending is going to rise inexorably over the coming years. However, there are huge efficiencies to be gained in the NHS, many of which may require cuts of some kind. But by publically tying himself to Brown’s measure of success (ie. spending money), when the NHS budget continues to rise he will be insulated from attacks about cuts, headline figures will bear him out. So he gets to make efficiency savings, re-invest the returns and be seen to increase NHS spending. Even if none of that holds, gven that health spending must rise to care for an aging population, the pledge on the NHS is both easy to make and probably stick to.
Monday 5th April is the date when Brown will most likely call the election, so less than one month to go before the phoney war ends, and the battle commences.
Charles Kennedy might have been a vote magnet in Scotland but I don’t think he was in England.
The Kennedy fan club does seem to be mostly Scottish.
I think OGH is correct on this.
The Sun says it:
A Brownwash
THEY struggled to lay a glove on the Clunking Fist.
Gordon Brown steamrollered his way through his appearance at the Chilcot Iraq War inquiry.
He DENIED starving the Forces of money, INSISTED no request from the military was turned down, and vowed he SUPPORTED the Iraq invasion (while sneakily distancing himself from Tony Blair).
Mr Brown’s defiance left his bumbling questioners flat-footed as they failed to pin him down.
For relatives of the fallen, a crucial opportunity went begging.
Former defence chief General Lord Guthrie tells The Sun Mr Brown was economical with the truth and disingenuous. That’s a polite way of saying he was telling porkies.
In truth, says the General, Mr Brown gave the military as little as he could get away with while pouring money into his own pet schemes.
For all his bluster, Mr Brown is not off the hook.
He may have bamboozled the dopey Chilcot Inquiry.
But in the court of public opinion, he still has serious questions to answer.
448 James
well depending how you define today ( for me since I’m about to go to bed it’s nighttime 5th March ) this is the first time I’ve mentioned you so it’s hardly bee in bonnet.
If you count it as 6th March it’s still the first time and believe me James you are not top of my concerns. Why don’t you do the smae as me, get a good night’s sleep, avoid a bollocking from the missus and I’ll discuss Scotland and Wee Eck with you all day tomorrow or Sunday to the point where even you want to change the subject.
Slainte.
458. I agree he was even more popular in Scotland, but there can’t be much doubt about his wider popularity. Whenever he goes on Question Time he always has the audience eating out of his hand.
435.David, I must admit that Purcell was definitely a politician I would have said should be one to watch up here. He was certainly making waves on the political scene up here, and was very successful at it too. I would have said that he was part of the sandwich that was keeping Gray afloat in Holyrood, and was causing the SNP administration no end of hassle, the other half being Jim Murphy.
447: oldnat @ 12:22
And then Scotland declares UDI? Without a further referendum? Do you honestly believe that could happen?
That said, were the questions and results put and answered in the way you pose, I for one would be very happy. By acceding to Scotlands demands HMG would spark such a political rumpus that it could be the catalyst for real radical constitutional reform throughout the UK.
marbles
Perhaps but after the past few months I have doubts that there are any Conservative strategic policies that make sense at all.
458.Well we are going find out if that is the case soon.
@438
Kristin-don’t presume that everyone who will benefit from that think it is right.
Sadly I think there’s a missing of the main story going on here again
It being that the Sun resurrected Brown and Camerons missteps have accelerated the process.
Unbelievable 6 months ago but true now.
by tim March 6th, 2010 at 12:13 am
Tim, I know the area well, or I did when I worked in Nether Alderly and I nearly bought a house in Alderly Edge back in the mid 80’s. I met some very genuine people there but, if I am honest, the majority were real Cheshire Set types and spoke of nothing but how much they were worth. This was the main reason I decided not to go ahead and stayed in Derbyshire where I would have to deal with my local farmer letting himslelf into my kitchen and putting the kettle on or raiding the brandy. He could have bought and sold most of them, but never mentioned money. More my sort.
As for Brown, he just spent four hours saying nothing whilst reminding the voters that he is a shameless liar. Not a good way to start an election campaign so I wouldn’t count those chickens yet.
Besides all that, I hope you had an enjoyable birthday drink. I’m driving down to the North West tomorrow for a few days so the weather better be good.
448 James. Thanks. You are right - he is frighteningly extreme. The Dutch couldn’t make a nutcase Prime Minister could they?
463 oldnat
my friend I’m off to bed, I hope that all is well on the Isle of Arran and thank you for sharing your views.
Naturally when you want to learn how to make real whiskey I’m sure the good citizens of Bushmills will show you where you have been going wrong.
Best wishes
A
444 There’s a section of the Labour vote that doesn’t want to vote Labour but will do so over the NHS. There’s another segment of usually non-voting nominal Labour who’d turn out if they thought it was threatened. It’s not really about the actual NHS as it stands but the idea of it. This element is weaker than it once was but it’s still there.
I’d say the Cameroon position on the NHS should undercut the Labour vote by a few per cent in proportion to how trusted Cameron is. Pretty clear cost/benefit imo. After a parliament or two of not trashing the NHS el Torees would be more trusted over it and therefore get more room for manouvre to do other things.
In theory anyway, in practise there won’t be any money so it doesn’t actually matter either way.
464.
Yeah, I’m with you on that. The point of thinking there was some master plan that would kick in has long gone ..
460. I refer the honourable gentleman to exhibits A, B, and C…
“I’ve now got to the stage with Ashcroft where I would beg James Kelly to start talking about SNP just to relieve the non-ending tedium.”
“you can say that, but I’m afraid James would be asking me to send links proving my statements and would probably get his lawyers involved unless I yield to thwe dark forces of Nittism.”
“It’s why James ends up in a Civil war with half the bloggers on this site”
Three mentions in one thread does seem to be a bit of a bee in your bonnet (baby wasp perhaps) but I’ll take your word for it. Avoiding a bollocking from the missus will not be a problem since, as Jane Austen might put it, Mrs Kelly is not yet in being (lucky her), but I will indeed wish you a very good night’s sleep, and look forward to playing my unwitting role in reverting you to that state on many happy occasions to come.
457. 5th April is Easter Monday. Unlikely I would have thought.
Charles Kennedy certainly has plenty of people who like him but I also suspect that he has some who can’t stand the sight of him - OGH appears to be one of those.
Clegg on the other hand will not have the fervent admirers but will also have very low negative ratings.
nickc “… threatening to leave because the state is asking for 50% of incomes over £150k is outrageous.”
Allow me to quote from an email I just wrote to my brother:
“It looks like will be departing London for Zurich though nothing is official as yet.
…
It’s the tax rises which are responsible really; people who are aren’t British, who wouldn’t be caught dead in an NHS hospital, who pay for their children’s education and who came to London for the money aren’t susceptible to Labour’s notions of social solidarity.”
Maybe you don’t want such people to stay, bloody immigrants afterall, but Labour has spent all the tax they paid and borrowed to the hilt on the back of their now non-existant future tax payments.
Re 474
It looks like *my company* will be departing London for Zurich …
453 Alanbrooke
Glad you responded - saves me bothering with notme’s lack of understanding of the context in which constitutional polling happens in Scotland.
“balance sheet split is the big issue”
Absolutely. The huge problem is that the best figures for Scotland stem from GERS, and they have to be estimates, because the UK data is so bad. Did you notice that the UK slipped out (during the MPs expenses scandal) the fact that they are not putting the PFI data on balance sheets after all?
However, the data for the last 10 years or so suggests that the Scottish structural deficit has been less than or equal to the UK structural deficit.
We don’t yet know what the post financial crisis data will show - given the very large contribution that the City made to UK coffers.
It’s dangerous to make assumptions (as you are doing) as to what the actual data will show.
Mr Jones
That the basis of the whole ‘Cameron Project’, making it appear that it is safe to vote Conservative or at least not vote anti-Conservative.
Whether it has worked we will soon see.
Am I alone in wishing that the election could take place so that we can stop speculating about political strategies and prediction models etc and actually start analysing results and drawing conclusions?
476 oldnat
I make no assumptions on the financial facts, I do make assumptions on from what position people will negotiate !
And with that it’s definitlely good night!
476 - I know they’re skint at Ibrox but surely not enough to wreck the whole economy
James Kelly: What an utterly chilling interview by Geert Wilders on Newsnight tonight. If I had any doubts that he was an extremist before I saw that, I’m absolutely certain he is now.
More chilling than the Christmas Day flight to Detroit? Dangerous on the tube? Really, I think you deserve a relaxing 2-week holiday in Small Heath with five-daily excursions to local mosques …
expect to see that cameron poster all over the news again! This is why it is going to be successful… every time one of these nhs stories breaks, itll be contrasted to the tories pledge to ring fence nhs spending, narration reinforced by a picture of cameron next to ‘i’ll cut the deficit, not the NHS’ (bonus of deficit message to!). It was also so mocked that everyone knows about it and the nhs pledge. Hence, when they here labour talk about cuts to the nhs theyll remember cameron’s pledge to save it. As with all cameron’s game plans, he always puts long term benefits over short term gains.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/7379983/Hundreds-of-NHS-wards-to-be-shut-in-secret-plans.html
Ah is it going to get quiet on here?
There might be something interesting to talk about later.
Apart from NZ v Australia.
473.”Clegg on the other hand will not have the fervent admirers but will also have very low negative ratings.”
Clegg’s lack of a high or distinctive profile would explain the low negative ratings, but it ain’t going to provide the votes for the Libdems in the volume needed in the right seats.
472.Quite right. Just re-read the Gary Gibbon article
The most expected date for the Budget is 24th March, but it is still not announced.
The most expected date for the Prime Minister to announce an election date is 29th March. Parliament could come back in what should’ve been its Easter recess – perhaps 7th, 8th and 9th April – and then could be dissolved on 12th April. That week could see the manifesto launches.
The television debates could be on the 15th April (ITV), 22nd April (Sky) and 29th April (BBC).
Oh, and the election on 6th May.
463 HurstLlama
I’m not making a prediction for a process! You asked for a route through which independence could happen without a majority having that as their first preference.
It’s not for me to say what your constitutional arrangements should be, but I’d agree that a major upheaval would probably be beneficial!
However, history isn’t on your side. Our current degree of Home Rule has been delayed by 50 years, due to UK inertia. There is a significant majority for more which the Unionist parties are trying to restrict via Calman. The process still revolves around conceding the least possible at the last possible moment.
Though tim is bl**dy brilliant, in comparison with the brainless abusers who have infested the site very recently.
Tim may or may not be brilliant, he could indeed have an IQ of over 150 for all I care, or be hopelessly ESN.
IMO Tim and his like are ill, and should seek urgent professional help with there problem, for their own good as well as others.
Tim and his like are afflicted as well as affected individuals. They are worse then Celtic or Rangers fans after a skin full, at least they don’t generally profess themselves to be any better then mindless thugs.
Hate is their driving emotion, not a hunger for understanding. Tims type project their ever darkening side onto others. They can not bare to think that there is a stereotypical Alf Garnet, or Homer Simpson present in all of us. Which of course includes the likes of TIM as much if not far more self-destructively then the norm.
Tim clearly hates at least half of the voting population. This is not rational thinking, however typical or widespread it may be.
Of course it is unfair to just pick on TIM. This disease can be found every bit as much in Conservative or Liberal tribalists as Socialist ones.
Therefore may I make this general appeal to all.
Please all try your utter best to see all Gods children as simply human beings with differing experiences, self-interests and priorities in life, rather then sadly under-washed lazy dole-addicted lefties, or baby eating greedy righties.
For a mature mind must surly know that the whole truth knows no particular person, never mind any particular political party, or ideology. GOOD and EVIL is designed to be found in all ideologies, if this where not the case hardly anyone would vote at all.
The trick is to stop the establishment selectively promoting EVIL, while marginalizing or effectively disregarding GOOD, whichever colour the presiding team marches under.
I personally believe that the vast majority of ordinary people instinctively know the difference between GOOD and EVIL. People like TIM however are not among this number.
Irrational hatred is a profoundly ignorant, and self-destructive emotion, as well as being a brightly illuminated sign of deep down nastiness caused by a highly dis-functional childhood.
477 I mostly agree with what you’re saying except i think the NHS element is one of the few bits of the Cameroon strategy where the cost-benefit is clearly positive (with the caveat that it’s proportionate to trust) whereas most of the rest is 50-50 at best.
480. To be honest, what put a chill down my spine the most was the stuff about stripping Muslims of Dutch citizenship and then deporting them. It was admittedly very carefully worded, but so was Nazi policy on the Jews in the early stages.
For clarity, I’m not suggesting for a moment he intends to use the Nazis’ methods, but I do wonder if he aspires to bring about ethnic/religious cleansing by ‘constitutional’ means.
Nytol
485: oldnat @ 00:55
“… the Unionist parties are trying to restrict …”
Which brings us back to the point I made earlier about Westminster Politicians being unwilling to countenance reform.
So having completed the circle I think it is time for my bed. My thanks for another interesting chat and I wish you a good night.
484. Every day that goes by without a Budget date being announced, leads me to believe more strongly that he will go all the way to June.
488. James Kelly: you seem to anticipate being “utterly chilled”? I dunno, but I did prefer Birmingham being a British/European city to what has replaced it: differential birth-rates plus immigration have already ensured there are more Asian 5-7 year olds than white in Britain’s second biggest city.
482.”There might be something interesting to talk about later.”
David, any clues? Just about to head of to Zzzzzzzzz.
490 HurstLlama - for the morning!
Just came back to close down the computer and remembered this that I’d opened earlier to check some data earlier.
It’s by Prof McCrone of Edinburgh Uni, and I think will be accepted by all Scots here, as well as a number of our southern friends.
GENERAL POINTS ON NATIONAL IDENTITY IN SCOTLAND
People living in Scotland give much higher priority to being Scottish over being British. This holds broadly true for gender, social class, religion and region. Nevertheless, most people claim dual identity, and that Scots still remain ‘British’ in significant numbers. Compared with Wales and England, people in Scotland are much more likely to emphasise their Scottishness over their Britishness than either the Welsh or the English.
Over time, the results are fairly consistent, and there has not been a shift towards or away from Scottish identity in any simple sense in the last decade. The setting up of the parliament has not made people feel any more or, indeed, any less Scottish, although both the referendum and the first Scottish parliamentary election saw a firming up of ‘Scottish only’ identity.
There is no simple relationship between national identity, constitutional preferences and political behaviour in Scotland. Thus, supporters of all parties are much more likely to describe themselves first and foremost as Scottish, including Conservatives, and including those who opposed the setting up of the parliament. Likewise, a significant number of SNP supporters retain a sense of being British, and Labour voters are overwhelmingly Scottish. In other words, being Scottish is a taken-for-granted assumption, and underpins virtually all social, political and cultural life in Scotland. It is not a straightforward predictor of party political or constitutional preferences.
People in Scotland have a clear understanding of the distinction between ‘national’ (Scottish) and ’state’ (British) identities in a way people in England do not. Nevertheless, there seems to have been a shift towards greater numbers of people south of the border calling themselves ‘English’ in recent years. There is no systematic evidence that this has been caused by Scottish (or Welsh) devolution, and there is no evidence of English resentment on this score.
Identity is not a badge which people carry around with them unchanged. It is much more like a set of claims they make according to the context in which they find themselves, be these cultural, political and so on. Hugh McIlvanney once observed: ‘Identity, personal or national, isn’t merely something you have like a passport. It is also something you rediscover daily, like a strange country. Its core isn’t something like a mountain. It is something molten, like magna.’ (The Herald, 13 March 1999)
Being Scottish seems much more attached to ‘a sense of place’ rather than a ’sense of tribe’, as the historian TC Smout observed. That is, the sense of territorial, civic, identity appears stronger than an ‘ethnic’ one such that people can claim to be Scottish by living here. The parliament reinforces that sense of ‘place’ insofar as people participate because they live here, not simply because they were born here. Further, the evidence seems to suggest that the longer people who were not born here live in Scotland, the more likely they feel able to make a claim to be Scottish. It is also noticeable that young people of Asian origin are likely to operate hybrid identities such as Scottish Muslim or Scottish Pakistani, whereas the ‘English’ descriptor is missing in their peers south of the border. Historians back this up by telling us that ‘the Scots’ have always been plural in cultural and regional terms, in McIlvanney’s phrase, a ‘mongrel’ people.
Finally, one should not assume nor expect an unchanging sense of Scottishness. Just as there was a strong set of conservative and religious (mainly Protestant) values underpinning the sense of being Scottish in the 19th century, so Scots today define and describe themselves in secular, progressive and liberal terms according to life as they find it in the 21st century. There is no powerful set of religious and/or linguistic cultural markers which define what it means to be a Scot which means that identity can be much more open and inclusive.
Now definitely nytol!
Shocking story from South Korea:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8551122.stm
493 - We’ve got an exciting story about a possible bid for Rangers.
But something else might break too.
It will still have broken in the morning. Get some kip
496.Rangers news would be good. Very surprised its taken this long for anyone to come forward, its a club with a long history and a very solid fan base.
On the other story, is it political and will it push the weather off the news?
And with that and a busy Saturday ahead, nite all.
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2881226/Tycoons-bidding-war-for-Rangers.html
I guess by now the papers know the real Purcell story; Glasgow’s gay scene is a small place, although it is just rather sad.
I can see why he may want to cover up some aspects though, and has tried to do so.
As for Rangers, who cares? best thing that could happen is if they went bust and all that racist sectarian giibberish became a thing of the past. What would those flag waving, drunken neanderhals do on a Saturday though?
Herald - Clegg let down by reheated speech
Oh Lord, this could be a car crash..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/7377844/Mothers-election-debate-takes-the-biscuit-for-Gordon-Brown.html
Hmm, keep trying to post on a ConHome thread but it won’t let me.
Trying to point out on the Wales seats thread that the Tories only have one MP in Scotland, but the comment never appears…
From Indygal Goes to Holyrood (aka Anne McLaughlin MSP) - I wonder if this refers to the breaking story David is hinting at?
“I am shocked at some of the things I’m hearing (and apparently those who read the Sunday papers will be hearing them too) regarding the mystery of Steven Purcell. Actually I’m not shocked because I have heard many of these things over the years. What IS shocking me is that finally the press are taking an interest in the wider issues around all of this.”
http://indygalgoestoholyrood.blogspot.com/2010/03/glasgow-labour-no-longer-smelling-of.html
503 - No. The breaking story is not a Scottish story.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/
This is it.
So who is Donal Blaney?
Conservative activist, embarrassment to the Tory party, friend of John Redwood and David Davis.
**Writing openly on his own website, Blaney, a Kent-based solicitor, has argued that “humiliation or psychological interrogation techniques are, in my view, not a problem … Waterboarding doesn’t do the prisoner any permanent physical harm although he may be reluctant to shower or use a flannel again in the future when/if he is freed.”** The Guardian
Just the kind of man that haunts the NuConservative Party and who will be under the spotlight in the coming weeks.
With an awful government that needs turfing out of office quickly, is it any wonder that so many voters are a little hesitant when the Tory Party is using Blaney to train some of its candidates?
God Save us from the lunatic Blaneys of this world.
486 Mr Galt
Interestingly your post tells me much more about you than it does about Tim.
@506 - unbelievable.
24-hour news not so 24-hour it seems.