The Tory daily poll lead moves up a notch
March 3rd, 2010
CON 38% (38)
LAB 32% (33)
LD 19%(16)
And the Lib Dems move up three
Apart from that blip at the weekend when the Tory lead slipped to just two points the daily poll has had pretty stable figures and tonight’s numbers are no exception. The Tories stable, Labour down one and the Lib Dems up three.
Given that the big political story has continued to be Lord Aschroft’s tax affairs then the Tories will be a tad relieved that while they are not going up - Labour has dropped.
Maybe like the Rawnsley allegations about life in Number 10 the Ashcroft story is just something for the Westminster village and outside it few people care. For if they did then you’d expect this to be reflected in the polls.
Quite what’s driven the move to the Lib Dems I don’t know.
Another daily poll tomorrow - same time same place.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First?
Calm down dears
First ever first?
Good for Lib Dems
Told you.
Good news
Lib Dem advance debate bounce !!
primo
Nice!
Mended Tories on the rise
In your face Gabblisimo
You appalling tease Mike !!
Lord Ashcroft did it!
Boorish Gobble cheap and snide
1. Yes.
Not exciting.
Pity.
Pre Hague on the media and MOE.
Lib Dems up and Labour down.
Fishing
Same
Pond
Quite what’s driven the move to the Lib Dems I don’t know.
The Party ID Weightings perhaps?
Meh virtually no change.
That’ll do for now.
Sod the Tories, I was referring to the LDs
Have yougov totally monopolised polling these days? What’s happened to all the other polling companies?
So we have these daily polls right up until election day - yawn.
My own hunch is that, the public sees both the Tories and Labour as sleazy as each other, whilst the Lib Dems are seen above the fray.
Hence their bouncette following Ashcroft.
And yes I am aware of Michael Brown, but I don’t think most of the general public are.
Buy Sterling!
In all seriousness, this is the kind of number that the Lib Dems would be happy starting the campaign at. It would mean them ending up in the early-mid 20s.
Now we can see that this Ashcroft disaster is seriously hurting the Tories with the public.
Oh, hold on a moment…
So Ashcroft has little/no effect on Tories and LibDems up - a plague on both your houses perhaps?
tim, has your News-Sense picked up the mess that Jack Straw is creating over the Bulger case yet?
Quelle surprise! Discredited political class plays “Your non Dom is dodgier than ours!” Voters reach for remote control!!
Thanks Mike I can go to bed happier now. Long day lurking on the board!
UKPR:
CON 287 seats
LAB 285 seats
LIB 48 seats
Hung Parliament, Conservatives 39 seats short
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/swing-calculator
15 - tim Hague is quite highly regarded by the electorate, more so than when he was leader. You may find that a visible Hague moves polls away from the side you support.
15 Post tim Malfunction.
“Tories will be a tad relieved”
Ashcroft isn’t a one night wonder. It’s a slow burner. It’s an image story. Think Guiness Toucan……
My hope (belief?) is that Labour have overcooked Cashcroft. The shrieking from Harriet Hatpin-in-your-penis was particularly unsightly, today.
Labour are, after all, the party whose Lords offered to alter laws - for money. I’m not aware of Lord Ashcroft actually selling legislation to the highest bidder.
17. jsfl: The Party ID Weightings perhaps?
Well, we learnt earlier today that YG are weighting Labour 2005 voters four points higher than anyone else (except MORI who don’t weight by past vote).
Every YG poll needs to have this borne in mind when considering it.
Given that the big political story has continued to be Lord Aschroft’s tax affairs
What happened to Daves fightback?
Another good poll for Labour. Either YouGov is just way off or we can now assume the real lead in the country is 5-7pts. I don’t know, it surprises me. I thought these polls may have been blips, but I guess mow we must assume that is the state of play. I guess Labour has most seats on those numbers?
The reason for this despite ashcroft?? Not only do people not care but the tories have been rather successful in muddying the waters i.e lord paul. Time and time again, brown looks weakest when he tries to deny the obvious or is being blatantly hypocritical. This is what labour have done this time… they look hypocritical.
Also, people out there have probably worked out the following: either these people fund political parties or we the tax payer do!
35th
No doubt Tim will be claiming Lord AShcroft has bought YouGov next. It is strange that Labour in 1997 didnt object to rich men funding their candidates to oust the nasty Tories but 13 years later the suggestion that 1 rich man may be contributing less than 5% of Tory funding has our resident Labour bots frothing at the mouth. What have you done with Lord Cashpoint’s millions? No doubt you gave them to James Gordon Brown to look after. After all he knows a thing or two about finance doesn’t he?
Does anyone know which pollsters have changed their methodology or weighting since 2005?
100 non doms in the house of lords
How many are labour peers ?
Watching Blair being interviewed on the Ten on BBC1 - hasn’t he aged? Has a haunted look about him, behind the tax exiles tan.
Might it be, that it might take a wee while for corrosive effects of Ashroft to take some of the shine off of Big Blue?
Speaking of that color, did anyone else find it mildly amusing, that Michael Foot’s first job after university was working for the Blue Funnel Line?
Now could understand it better IF he’d have gotten a gig working for Texaco!
OT. Is there a reason why the Tories on here are so agressive tonight? Even some of the normally tranquil ones?
15. And what did we have? A stonking performance at PMQs and some further comment by the radio, the relaying of which is right down the list on both the BBC and Sky sites. In contrast to the headline news on Monday which did NOTHING.
What are you hoping will move the polls next, tim? Michael Foot’s ghost?
Whenever I read the usual bores going on about Ashcroft, depsite the deficiencies in their own parties positions over funding now and the recent past, It reminds me of that old LBJ quote.
‘Did you ever think that making a speech on economics is a lot like p*ssing down your leg? It seems hot to you, but it never does to anyone else’
This is a bit different to David Dimbleby - live Students’ Union election results from the University of Southampton (only for uber-geeky electionistas…)
http://elections.susu.org/live
Hopefully the press are going to make a massive deal out of Straw and Johnson saying completely different things about the Venables case - and I mean completely. Straw is saying it’s not in the public interest to say how/why he breached bail; Johnson is saying it is. Two senior members of the Cabinet are actually publically disagreeing over something this big. Just how many media outlets will get off their bums to notice the contradictory statements?
45 - I’m blaming Harriet Harman, she started it.
34: “Harriet Hatpin-in-your-penis”
LOL
Best. Name. Ever.
Lord Ashcroft making absolutely no differance to anything. Surprise, surprise.
Pre Hague on the media and MOE.
by tim March 3rd, 2010 at 10:00 pm
Is that Hague making Hattie look ridiculous at PMQ’s you are referring to? Do you think it would have been an even bigger tory lead?
re 33. Roger - I still remember your predictions about the “Dave the chameleon” Labour PPB.
All the harping on over Ashcroft is equivalent to the Latvian SS crap last year, which no-one cared about.
45 - because your lot are even more dull and repetative than usual.
re 33. Roger - I still remember your predictions about the “Dave the chameleon” Labour PPB.
Oh and Northern Rock or the election that never was being a minor matter that would soon be forgotten about.
Sorry, did I just hear Jon Craig saying Harriet Harman battered WIlliam Hague at PMQ’s?
Even Lloyd Evans called it a big Hague win.
re 30
Andy Cooke
Tory majority of 14, likelihood of majority 90%
I am sure Labour will get a surge when Brown tells Chilcott on Friday that he went on holiday to Cape Cod and when he came back, that madman Blair had taken us to war and hidden all the funds he had earmarked for our brave boys and girls of the military.
I think the Tories need to be very worried here. These poll readings are very close and could close quite dramatically in the last few days of a campaign.
Granted they could open up again, but for a party to be assured of victory its polling needs to have a distinct floor, and i just don;t see the Tories having that.
I always thought that their poll lead was soft, but its turned out to be a yoyo instead. Very weird.
Return of the 6. Excellent.
Non-dom, non-story.
Nothing to see, move along… now about this little Budget hosted by tim’s poster boy?
Someone buy Dave Miliband a new razor!
34
You really are a little prat aren’t you? “Bitchslap lefty Wark” the other night - now this spiteful little rant. Is it all women you hate or just those who oppose the party of toffs,spivs and tax-dodgers you drool over?
45 Roger
Is there a reason why the Tories on here are so agressive tonight? Even some of the normally tranquil ones?
Post-natal aggression? Doubled?
Hi All,
I found somthing rather interesting today what looks to be a private poll tables for Conservative targets. Would you publish them they give a insight into the tory campaign.
BBC website ticker proclaims Jack Straw moves to restrict fees of Libel lawyers. Is this in preparation for him and others being sued by Lord Ashcroft?
Meanwhile Scotland beat the Czech Republic 1-0. Does that make us British tonight?
re 36 tim well it’s now 2213 and the Beeb are on their fifth story. Lord Ascroft? Who he? (ed)
I didn’t think the bullying stuff would interest voters and I didn’t think Ashcroft would either. It’s all political guff as far as most people are concerned. We think they’re all at it anyway, so who gives a monkeys where he lives?
This remains the phoney war - dull really. Sooner or later the actual gun will be fired and we’ll be into the real thing. Even then we’ll get tawdry story to the left or the right but unless something’s really big I doubt it will make as much difference to the polls as the key question: who do people most trust to run the economy. Whatever Mike claims, that’s the central one.
65 - Please I’m tranquil, looking at your babies is like the best thing ever.
Although thanks to Gordon fcuking Brown, each one of them has been born with 25grands worth of debt.
45 We have had our weetabix
60 ‘Blair had taken us to war and hidden all the funds’
Surely he could have asked Jack Dromey where it was?
re 43 Good. I hope he feels haunted to the grave.
33. “Ashcroft isn’t a one night wonder. It’s a slow burner. It’s an image story. Think Guiness Toucan……”
Only a week or so ago the Tories were saying the same about Brown’s bullying. The public appear to have made up their minds that all politicians are scum. What might shift the polls would be some rare good behaviour by one of the wretches.
Re Ashcroft, to quote the immoral (sp?) bard:
“The [fans of the Iron] lady doth protest too much, methinks.”
Front pages
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6215/front_pages_thursday_march_3_2010.html
Apparently Hague pointing out that Hattie waived AWS for her husband is sexist…
http://carons-musings.blogspot.com/2010/03/hague-takes-sexist-swipe-at-harman-over.html
so, despite hype and fury from Labour and circa 250 posts from the timbot collective the lead is up?
Ha f%cking ha
What’s the highest percentage that Youwotguv have ever given the Lib Dems?
66 - For the first time in a Hampden friendly for quite a while I believe.
The next, non YouGov poll should be at the weekend when we’ll hopefully get an ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph. After that we’ll be looking at Populus in The Times on next Monday.
This will anger Tories and non Lib Dems, but I shall christen this 3 point bounceback “The Huhne Effect.” Whenever in doubt, just make a load of TV appearances and sound very angry and reasoned. WIN WIN WIN
48. There’s a lovely bird on that channel
69. Don’t worry TSE, they’ve got 250 quid CTF vouchers to come too… get the bunting out!
Punt them in a micro russian oil company (best not be falklands) and come 20 years time, they’ll be able to pay off Gordon’s debt present.
Shame Mrs Zuma didn’t wear traditional dress today. Oh and the Beeb are now on their ninth story. Ashcroft - who he.
71 Jack Dromey was far too busy doing his best Yozzer Hughes impression
‘Gizzer constituency. I could represent that. Go on, giz it’
49 Yep first item on ITV News at Ten. Why is Straw preventing disclosure of Venables being returned to jail and Alan Johnson saying it should be. No mention of Lord AShcroft in headlines unlike the wee boy helping his dad the air traffic controller at JFK.
Alan Johnson looking like a pratt in interview.
66. Easterross. “Meanwhile Scotland beat the Czech Republic 1-0. Does that make us British tonight?”
Perhaps prior to Scotland’s revived nationhood and the establishment of
the wee pretendyparliament.Instead of celebrating, I will genuflect before a (mandatory) portrait of Wee Eck.
337- SSI FPT: “Methinks part of our problem (speaking as a Democrat) is that a) we’ve not done good enough job vetting candidates; and even more b) we lack a real heavy (like Tom DeLay) who can put the fear o’ God into potential weak links.”
I don’t know about that, SSI. Every party sooner or later ends up with its share of clunkers as candidates and in elective office. And Tom DeLay, in spite of his legendary skills as a political fixer and mover/shaker, couldn’t prevent a wave of scandals from hitting his own party and even himself. However, 2006 and 2008 washed away most of the GOP sinners as they met defeat at the ballot box, and effectively neutered any remaining crooked Republicans by virtue of their consignment to the minority.
By the same token, 2006 and 2008 were years when even the most crooked Democrat could expect to be re-elected, and years during which many of them began to accumulate enormous power that they could abuse if they were so inclined. Also, the Democratic ranks are much larger than Republican ranks today among elected officials, so the Dems have many more chances to win the corruption sweepstakes by virtue of sheer numbers alone.
All of these factors mean that it is no surprise that we are now seeing a wave of exposed corrupt Democrats not unlike what happened to Republicans a few years ago. The Dems are going to just have to muddle through it the best they can and hope that not too many babies are thrown out with the bathwater in November.
So it’s going to be the Indy who do Ashcroft tomorrow? And they wonder why nobody reads it. It’s like Chris Huhne in paper form.
What price tories to poll 40% or above in UK, excluding NI? Any offers?
Completely and utterly off topic..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73j30gJJhS0
More on Ashcroft/Hague:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/mar/03/ashcroft-hague-special-chemistry-tory
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:42918a8d-713e-4c69-8f23-608acd84ed4f
87 - ‘I will genuflect before a (mandatory) portrait of Wee Eck.’
I certainly won’t. Not with my knees anyway.
goodnight all
Pay tax? What me?
86 Remember, Alan Johnson was another ‘tim top tip’ for Labour leader. Is anyone running a book on who he’ll favour next, when Darling falls by the wayside?
BBC News:
ASHCROFT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
James Langdale:
For a decade Ashcroft less than open with the tory high command. Tory high command happy for everyone to know that.
Story not over yet. Something on this is pretty imminent.
Another number of dubious importance. I don’t discount YouGov entirely, but the weightings and Disloyal issues make me less than 100% confident in its methods.
86 - cool. It also looks like it might be the front page of the Telegraph tomorrow; or at least part of it.
Re: Bully Gordo, believe this actually HELPED him. Unless of course you think that Winston Churchill’s well-known fondness for taking stripes off of people was off-putting to the Great British Public.
As for Lord A and the latest poll, here’s another Cliff Notes famous quotation (said by Tom Driberg?):
“One swallow does not a summer make.”
Two stories:
Ashcroft: Non-domiciled for tax purposes, Lords Appointments Committee, difference between permanently resident and long-term resident…..er, Hayden Philips, target seats…..zzzzzzzzzzzz
Venables: Why is Jamie Bulger’s killer back in jail? What did he do?!!
Which one do you think they’re all talking about in the marginals?
82 You wouldn’t see the girl doing the exit polls and holding the ruler lasciviously on the Beeb or ITV!
92 - the Guardian and a man who seems to think Hague was “battered” by Harman at PMQs…
Want to find some sources in the real world?
William’s local press are on to it:
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/5040146.William_Hague__No_knowlege_of_Ashcroft_tax_arrangements/
57. Mike I’m staggered you didn’t take the opportunity to get in a plug about your Obama 50/1!!
Northern Rock-I hold my hands up
‘Dave the Chameleon’ is difficult to measure. Another slow burner in my opinion. Why do people think he’s lightweight? Can we say that ‘The Chameleon’ didn’t help set that agenda?
96 Gabble, clutch that straw. Tomorrows top story involves the Justice Minister’s apparent conflict with the Home Secretary over the release of information to the public on the re-imprisonment of the killer of a two year old child.
96 - LOL
Go on, give it another whack with that crop. It’s not dead yet.
Although the daily poll has been dull in terms of the headline figures (except the sensational outliar) at 6,6,6,6,2,7,5,6 the different supplementals are still interesting. Over the last couple of days ones that have stood out:
What governemnt would you like to see after the election?
Con 29
Lab 21
Con / LD 9
Lab / LD 14
And among LD voters:
Con / LD 28
Lab / LD 45
Under a Conservative government do you think everyday life will …
Change for the better 25
Change for the worse 29
Not change much 38
How would you feel if Cameron formed a Conservative government?
Delighted 21
Dismayed 41
Wouldn’t mind 27
All this indicates:
1. Existing LD voters are just as likely to switch to Lab as to Con.
2. There is no eagerness for a Conservative government. That doesn’t prevent victory if Labour are hated, but it indicates a softness of support.
krishgm
why is BBC news at ten burying the brilliant scoop by Radio 4’s World Tonight about how William Hague found out months ago about Ashcroft?
William’s problems getting bigger by the minute:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7048792.ece
The Times is getting its revenge.
89 Will the Independent still be in business by the time of the GE? Doesn’t it sell at least 5000 copies per night, all bought by some chap called L.Paul
Interesting that Sarah Brown announced today that as she will be on the campaign trail she will not be able to avoid making political comments on her Twitter. Might she suddenly start to find that hundreds of thousands of people dont like her husband much?
Goodnight all.
The “something imminent” that James Landale was referring to is the Electoral Commission report on Ashcroft, not his non-dom status.
gabble, if the tories do win the next election, what the hell are you going to spend your life on.
You need to get a hobby, go out with some mates, well pretty much anything really, your addiction to trolling through obscure publications websites for “dirt” on the tories is just not healthy.
96 - calm down Gabble - Landale also said that he thought the public would see this as a Westminster story and it would not of itself affect the Polls but that there was always a danger that the Tory brand might not be seen to have been as decontaminated as the public thought it had.
As with bullygate I think the public is far more concerned about jobs etc etc and that labour are risking making themselves look absolutely hypocitical over this.
110. “Interesting that Sarah Brown announced today that as she will be on the campaign trail she will not be able to avoid making political comments on her Twitter.”
Is the taxpayer funding that?
103. Nevermind that, what about this….
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/5038140.Couple___s_sweet_surprise_for_Paralympic_hopeful/
73. glw. I think the bullying is also a slow burner. I don’t think the electorate have quite decided what they make of it yet.
114, propagandist witch announces she’ll be disseminating propaganda shock.
How dreadful that circumstance is forcing her to shortly become a continually tweeting Labour Party press release during an election. What woe.
Sorry the big news tomorrow will be Cheryl Cole taking back Ashley Cole.
117 well she is apparently a friend of Damien MacBride.
115. Yokel. What a great story!
YouGov Scottish poll
Lab 42
SNP 22
Con 17
LD 14
More evidence that it is Scotland keeping the Labour figures up with YouGov, perhaps?
103 - Bah, the proper local paper in Richmond is the Darlington & Stockton Times.
Gosh Gobble you seem to be getting really excited. One question though. How do you get the text in bold when you are so obviously typing one handed.
I’d just like to make perfectly clear that I have never met this frightful Ashcroft chap. In fact, I had never even heard his name until a couple of days ago when it was brought to my attention that our Party coffers had been swollen by several million pounds. Not since the good old days at the old “Bully” club had I come across such wealth (apart from my own of course). I immediately ordered a full,frank,open and utterly transparent inquiry into the matter and within the hour had come to the firm conviction that there was absolutely no question of any inappropriate behaviour. Right! OK? Right. Furthermore if any more damaging developments come to light I will swiftly wash my hands of the matter, pin all the blame on that ghastly little Tyke Hague and expect to hear no more about it. Right? OK? Got that? Right! Now let’s just move on sharpish. OK? Right!
Sara Brown, needs to be very careful. If she oversteps the mark and becomes fair game politically, it could get very messy for her.
The press turned on Cherie with very few qualms, she could find herself in the same boat. Especially if this sort of thing from paul Waugh get currency.
“………….. Sarah Brown formed a strong bond with Charlie Whelan and Damian McBride. “She rewarded McBride by telling him he could throw a Chequers lunch with guests of his choice - which he did.”
* The No 10 team joked about how impressive Sarah was in helping boost the PM’s image. “Downing Street regarded the Prime Minister’s wife as his best and chief propagandist. One member of the Brown communications team even went so far as to describe her as ‘Magda Goebbels’.”
101.
My God! Poontang? I was talking about the other one on the stage, but ‘cor blimey christ guvnor’.. sign her up
I wonder how Labour found BriBrad?
119 Who, Magda?
The first shot in the airport body scanner religious war is fired:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article7048576.ece
Will this device that allows the kafir to see Muslim women naked be the next casus belli?
124 - sorry was that satire?
116. “73. glw. I think the bullying is also a slow burner. I don’t think the electorate have quite decided what they make of it yet.”
Fair enough, but there’s not exactly much time left for either story to burst into flames.
Very simple why the LDs are up today - I did it! Back down tomorrow
Jon Craig:
“The normally sure-footed William Hague is wobbling.
After listening to the battering he took from Harriet Harman (yes, really) on Lord Ashcroft at Prime Minister’s Questions, I assumed Gordon Brown had deliberately stayed away.”
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:42918a8d-713e-4c69-8f23-608acd84ed4f
Has Shirley Williams gone blind?
122. It sure is. The Northern Echo isn’t a North Yorkshire paper.
128, Magda indeed, or, as I affectionately call her, the venomous propagandist witch.
Like a bank of England Bank auction in the near future, I return to the market and re-open my offer to all those doubters of Labour and swingback.
What price tories to poll 40% or above in UK, excluding NI? Any offers?
118. Really? I missed an opportunity there.
133, was Craig sober when he wrote that, or has he merely developed a new and rare form of antonymic dyslexia?
124 This seems to have been cut from the same cloth as Sion Simon’s remarkably unfunny video spoof.
Bribrad, you just are not a natural satirist. There is much to make fun off in modern politics (including Cameron) but you are not able to do it.
Stick to your standard posts screeching abuse, and we can just all politely walk past on the other side of the road.
Erh Gobble - we all know you like to do the linky linky thing but for the sake of you own credibilty you should really only do it with the stuff that has the ring of truth. Hague destroyed Harman today.
127.
McBride’s school’s playground?
127. Care in the community.
Where can I watch todays PMQ’s?
135 - You can tell I used to live in Richmond.
On topic. I don’t think YouGov are doing themselves any favours with these all-too-frequent polls. They are putting their reputation on a par with the Met Office. A YouGov poll should be a rare and valuable thing, prized for its reticence, not a daily inevitability, like a beer or a crap.
140
I don’t recall seeing a post from you that didn’t consist entirely of abuse.
The LD figure with You Gov is up and down like a bob apple and being over analysised. The lead sans the sunday outlier looks stable. However in a decimal culture the real clincher is wether Labour can keep it up over 30 as present and the tory is constantly below 40%. A race where both competitors are in the thirties will be potrayed as closer than it might actually be and that effects everything from morale, to fundraising, to media narrative.
Sarah Brown is getting away with murder but she is very good at it and is a much warmer public figure than Cherie. I think going after her at this stage in the cycle would be a mistake. If she was to be taken out it shold hve been done a year ago. Even then I wouldn’t put money on her not being able to come out top from a full frontal attack.
144, Bob:
part1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TsA5lqmgMA
part2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYUcBBH4TMA
145. Really? In Richmond or the surrounding area? I don’t live too far away myself.
144 Bob
http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/house_of_commons/newsid_8537000/8537496.stm
NEW INITIATIVE - Scrappy’s nicked stat of the day.
A new regular late evening feature… only on PB.com home of IHT-lovers and the bewildered.
‘Andrew Neil has just said on the BBC that this is the 10th time Brown has missed a PMQs. Neil says Tony Blair missed 5% of PMQs. Brown has missed 12% of them’
PMQs
http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/house_of_commons/newsid_8537000/8537496.stm
148, a nasty attack wouldn’t work. If a story involving her and public funds emerged it would resonate, I believe.
I agree she’s getting away with far too much. It’s a fcking disgrace.
149- thanks, I was listening to Blackest Day by White Sugar when I started playing it, it made a great backing track to William Hague’s voice!
121 David Roe
Or at least YouGov’s weightings when applied in Scotland - a subject which Kellner consistently avoids even acknowledging.
147 Well, look again.
My last post was earlier today praising Michael Foot.
Still, if you think you’re helping Labour by posting dog-t*rds, carry on!
Who’s with me on a June election ?
Boo - breaking news, I’ve just had my first ever post go in to moderation…. and it wasn’t even about globule’s excesses.
Hoorar!!! We love ex-directors of Hawley and Hattie-hubbys-int-house.
150 - I used to live in Richmond between 2004 and December last year.
Just off Station Road
Alastair Campbell apperaed very confident and self satisfied during that tribute piece to Michael Foot.
I suspect that Campbell’s return to the Labour pack is a major reason for the upturn in Brown and Labour’s fortunes.
159- the old station in Richmond is quite good actually, I know it well! And it’s cholocate shop!
125. Interesting that Tory commentators are now taking a pop at Sarah Brown. I see this as quite positive for labour. They did the same to Cherie because they couldn’t lay a glove on Tony. With Brown that seemed most unlikely. It looks like his stock has risen.
157
Charmingly put.
146.Agree that You Gov is doing itself no favours with daily trackers.just dont think political opinion changes on a 24h basis.Therfore what is being measured is the random variation in polls taken from a panel over a 12 hour period.
Maybe if looking for trend it is better to compare average of 5 daily polls from week to week.
162 - The chocolate shop is fab. It was used to film some scenes from the fast show (The Ralph and Ted bits)
160. I see. My family live near Scorton.
162. It’s an excellent and wildly successful project. Entirely the initiative of the community. Shows you just what can be achieved when the local authority, whuch owned the building, had over control to the people.
163, No, tory commentators saying she needs to be careful. She is treated as a civilian at the moment. That may not last if she puts herself on the front line.
163, I’m not a big T Tory. I’m a big anti-Labour voter.
I’ve always disliked her forays into the public domain. Check back and you’ll see I was angered by her visiting Glenrothes on her own to campaign, and I disliked her introducing her Fuhrer, I mean, husband to conference.
158. E—c—-h——o.
Can someone release my post at 152, I promise not to mention IHT again tonight.
YouGov-itus anyone!!
Don’t think this daily tracker is a very edifying sight somehow. As unedifying as PMQ’s today - Speaker Bercow went down in my estimation, shambolically failing to keep order, as has been stated by many others on here.
163. Roger “Interesting that Tory commentators are now taking a pop at Sarah Brown. I see this as quite positive for labour.”
Actually Roger, what they are really upset about is the hypocrisy of Gordon Brown saying that his family is a private (when it suits him), and the reality that his wife is out and about playing politics.
Incidentally, apparently England did not win 3-1 tonight. After YouGov weightings were applied it was a 2-2 draw.
171 hunchman, the most unedifying thing today was *Mrs* Bercow sending out a party fundraising begging tweet on the back of Michael Foots death. Awful woman.
161. Stjohn. I saw your post on best actor the other night. Smart thinking. I’d say anything better than 3/1 is good value on Colin Firth. 14/1 is a snip. I also thought the film was one of those that stayed with you and his performance was nuanced in a way you don’t normally get from him. Another good outsider is best actress Carey Mulligan. I’m not sure of the odds but she’ll be an outsider.
Harman really was useless today, whatever the question her answer is to start talking about Lord Ashcroft. Hague must have enjoyed that one.
173. Hear hear - I thought the same.
Still going to vote for her hubby though…
Roger, Cameron’s wife is smeared and she’s chosen not to be involved in politics save for the odd photo op. I don’t remember you showing any concern over her treatment.
re 158 I shall be quite happy when the election is in June. It ’s the only surprise Gordon’s got left. I suppose that Darling might have announced by then when we’re going to have the budget as well.
176 - For the sake of my betting positions, please, please, please vote for Farage.
165. You seem to be labouring under the misapprehension that the pollsters (and especially their customers) care whether the movement they find is ‘real’ or not. They don’t - this is just raw material for cheap journalism.
On the theme of Sarah Brown, I reckon I have a sense of her as a person - I know her brother, and I used to date her best friend.
She is, I reckon, crucial in a way which some pb-ers are ignoring.
I’m talking about the bizarre idea that Brown will swiftly and decorously step aside, if Labour “win” the election. Some people on here - like tim and Roger - have been claiming that this is what will happen, should Labour pull off a coup.
Setting aside the utter unlikeliness of Brown ever voluntarily relinquishing political power, I would point to Mrs Gordon Brown as another reason why this idea is a forlorn delusion.
Everything I know and see and hear about Sarah Brown (whatever we think of her) tells me she is a woman who REALLY enjoys being Mes Prime Minister. She likes the attention, she loves the discrete influence, she revels in the perks - as chatelaine of Chequers and Downing Street, running her political salon, bestowing her favours.
And why not? Being the spouse of a PM is like being a landed 18th century aristocrat, only better. You get all the fun with none of the responsibility. Chequers is, apparently, a particularly succulent prize.
Why on earth would Sarah Brown give all this up, to return to being a PR girl married to a dour, brooding, retired, disappointed, one eyed hairy Scotsman, fuming in his little house in Pimlico, surrounded by kids toys?
It’s not gonna happen. Sarah Brown will cling on to the perks of high office with even greater tenacity than her husband. And if he starts to consider *retirement*, she will be there, whispering in his ear, telling him to carry on, telling him they are all out to get him and he should see them off.
She is Cherie times ten. She is Cherie minus the legal career.
This is the second head-lined entry on BBC iPlayer under general head of PMQuestions, dated 13 January, so has been held there for nearly 2 months. “Pretty funny sneer on the Tory Adverts with Cameron’s airbrushed smug punchable face”. So BBC is now openly taking part in the election campaign for Labour.Perhaps NPMP would comment, as he (with others here) has derided any suggestion that the BBC is biased. If ever there was a smoking gun, this is it.
88, S&S - think you’re correct. But keep in mind my own irritated angst!
BTW, one Obamama who has intestinal fortitude is the First Lady - note how she ran that incompetent social secretary right out of the White House.
Sure hope she keeps working that gig!
Speaking of First Ladies, there was a great show on PBS this week about Dolley Madison, who invented the role of First Lady. Now James Madison was a VERY smart guy. And the smartest thing he ever did was marry Dolley.
I knew most of the outlines of her story, but the PBS show filled in a lot of details. But the best part was a story that I (and no doubt you) learned in school:
How during War of 1812, when a British force landed on the shore of Chesapeake Bay and marched on Washington, with very little advance notice, Dolley organized the evacation of the White House (upon hearing the news the President had gone to join the feeble US forces in the area, and witnessed their rout at the Battle of Bladensburg).
The highlight (as you well know) was when she ordered the iconic painting of George Washington (by Gilbert Stuart) taken to safety - they broke the frame, cut out the canvass and rolled it up like a carpet - so that it wouldn’t fall into the hands of perfidious Albion. When they showed that scene (and you knew it was coming) I got a lump in my throat - there it is again. What a woman!
161 stjohn I suspect that Campbell’s return to the Labour pack is a major reason for the upturn in Brown and Labour’s fortunes.
Certainly something has changed in the past few months. Labour’s attacks have been very much better and more disciplined - all the party hacks peddling the same tedious lines ad nauseam, which is what you need to get your message across to a public which is not listening very carefully. Tories please copy.
Having said that, they seem to have lost the plot on Ashcroft, by over-doing it.
On the poll: no change, no surprise. I suspect the LibDem boost is just a correction compared with yesterday’s 16%, which seemed a bit low anyway.
179- you didn’t bet on Farage did you?
Obamacare to be signed into law before July has jumped to 50% today. Now trading between 50 and 60. Yes!
wibbler in the last thread : you made my heart jumped with your *AR has Tory lead to 4%* link, you funny boy!
181. So Sean, when Brown gets the boot do you think Sarah will stick by him?
Harman also seems to have given the answer to the wrong question.
William Hague - I Knew Nooothiiinggg.
156 - Yes, this does seem likely to be the case. But for the national poll, this seems to skew Labour’s share up quite a bit. These Scottish polls are giving me renewed hope that the Tory position is a fair bit better than the headline.
181 SeanT - Very interesting post.
185 - I have £200 on Farage beating Bercow, and £250 on Farage getting more than 50% of the votes Bercow gets.
Disraeli. it’s always a bit dangerous attacking a wife-particularly one who is ’sympathique’. Whatever their justification you’d expect them to think twice.
187. Yes, she will. She seems to love him, bizarre as that may be. I’m just saying that she ALSO, self evidently, REALLLLLLLY loves the baubles that come with being First Lady.
And she has a lot of influence with our Dear Leader.
185/192 - I also have some bets I think that Bercow wont be speaker come 1st of January 2011. Can’t remember the amounts or odds.
Must check my spreadsheet.
just a thought. As we saw with expenses, cameron can be extremely nifty with tricky issues. Lets say cameron decides to force ashcroft to pay back the money and announces ‘all non-doms in the lords will have to retrospectively pay back tax on all earnings since their arrival to the house or step down with immediate effect’. Now that really would shake things up. I cant imagine for one second labour following suit!
Yet another victory for team cameron!!!
182 Svejk
I can’t find that - can you please give the link?
Can anyone tell me when parliament’s last day of business is ?
21/1 available for small amounts on Colin Firth on Betfair. I’m on.
196. Did ‘Lord’ Paul really say there were 100 non-doms in the Lords?
192- oh well, it’ll be an interesting one!
181
More misogynistic ranting, Sean? Women,eh? By the way “discreet” is spelt “discreet”.
Roger. I’m glad you saw my post on Colin Firth. And I’m glad you agree.
Firth’s performance was, as you say, nuanced. And it’s impact lingers. His performance and the film itself has a wistful langour that I found beguiling.
181. “I know her brother, and I used to date her best friend”
Haha!! Like you used to date Mariella Frostrup who surprisingly has never heard of you! Perhaps you were using a pseudonym!!
TSE - don’t put the kid’s CTF money on Farage!
Robert’s right on this, Bercow has been very active across all his villages for years, regularly showing up at all the school events etc (on his own in my experience) and is ‘known’.
Farage has had a glossy leaflet delivered but it looked like an indian take-away menu and was swiftly chucked.
I’d have thought Magda was pretty much untouchable because of the kiddie.
By the way “discreet” is spelt “discreet”.
by bribrad March 3rd, 2010 at 11:15 pm
Oh dear, always a losing game correcting spelling and gramur.
203. Meant for Roger at 174.
205- “Farage has had a glossy leaflet delivered but it looked like an indian take-away menu and was swiftly chucked.”
Unlike the take away menu!
205 - I think i’ll be making a profit on election night.
Mostly to do with my other bets.
‘More misogynistic ranting, Sean? Women,eh? By the way “discreet” is spelt “discreet”’.
Plumps up cushion and gets popcorn….
194. She’s not the First Lady, you treasonous bastard!
183- The War of 1812 is a fascinating one in many respects, so it’s unfortunate that it’s so often overlooked. Nestled as it is between the Revolutionary War and the Civil War, it has become the redheaded stepchild of American history books.
I was going to mention to you one other problem the Dems have re: their crop of crooks in elective office. Many of the scandal-tarred Republicans of 2006 and 2008 were in reasonably competitive districts, and so were defeated and thrown from office entirely. However, many of the most rotten Democrats are in completely safe districts with little chance that they’ll be defeated (William Jefferson notwithstanding). The end result being that the Dems may end up having a tougher time ridding themselves of their intraparty plague, as the bad apples are re-elected while the good apples in competitive districts are defeated as proxies for the unreachable ones.
206. I wonder if it isn’t more a case of not wanting to open up too many cans of worms.
SeanT, you are correct re: danger (not from your POV of course) that Labour could well over-do the Ashcroft attack. Would expect Mandy & Campy to recognized and modulate.
Very interesting insights re: Sarah Brown. Reminds one that UK can (sometimes) be a small world compared to US.
In contrasting SB with CB, you’ve noted what the former lacks compared to the latter: the horsehair wig and the legal eagle brain beneath it? So what does she have on the plus side of the column?
OT: Sarah Palin has the great power to wind up the life out of lefties, just her name brings them out throthing at the mouth.
But look at her here, she knows her audience, prime time TV, completely and utterly at ease, no stuttering, complete confidence, wit, and knows how to draw her supporters with her.
http://www.nbc.com/the-tonight-show/video/clips/sarah-palin-part-2/1206108
I still believe that Sarah Palin might just be the first female president of the USA.
Can you imagine *any* british female politician being as at ease in front of the TV as she is? Actually, any male politician?
British contemporary politicians who are fairly comfortable on camera, like Blair, Cameron, Livingston, Galloway are still a long long way from the natural relaxed pose she has.
Media trainers could take years to teach people to be so comfortable and she does it with ease.
If someone teaches her about domestic policy and foreign policy, if she got to understand detail she would become a formidable opponent.
Go Palin.
211
Thought you and I had a truce.
Hague rapidly becoming the sacrificial lamb in the slow-burner that is the Ashcroft sage (to be continued in a local paper near you soon - if it is in a marginal, and in the letters pages and on the doorsteps for weeks to come). This will simply add to one of the reasons why the Ashcroft story resonates so caustically with the public. it reinforces the view that the Tory high command are a kind of old-boy network of the super-privileged and super-rich who simply don’t understand ordinary people and will always support their own.
Of the high command, Cameron, Osborne, Ashcroft, Johnson and Hague - only Hague doesn’t fit. Only he is someone who the majority of voter can empathise with. If he become the fall guy that will send a very damaging message to the electorate of what the Tories really stand for. Basically when push come to shove they will stand beside their own.
Sean T. Might of political betting, will you take tories getting 40+% in the election?
204. lol.
Er, I did date Mariella, for about nine months in the 90s. I was a smacked-up f*cked-up sometimes-banged-up Oedipal mess at the time, but yeah, I dated her. I can show you the photos if you want. I have a bad haircut.
By the way, why do you suddenly sound like Martin Day? -
“Haha!! Like you used to date Mariella Frostrup who surprisingly has never heard of you! Perhaps you were using a pseudonym!!”
You are Martin Day in disguise and I claim my five pounds at a shocking exchange rate of $1.49.
213- I’ve never seen any books about the war of 1812, and as you say it is very interesting. I’ll have a look on Amazon at some point.
Night all.
217 - merely anticipating the potential entertainment factor of a ST rant. Nothing personal but they can be a joy to behold
197 Wibbler. Google- iPlayer pm questions - second item.
Whatever happened to Susanna?
I miss her!
186, PM - you asked my humble opinion on this one a while back - sorry for delay in responding, but truth is, I really don’t have a clue, your guess is likely better than mine. All I can say is, if there was an olympics for timewasting, Congress would definitely make (if not own) the podium!
Ave it post 1945 parliamentary opinion!!!
—————————————–
Michael Foot = RIP!!!!!
I say he is the greatest Labour politician to emerge since 1945 government! Integrity, decent, true to his beliefs TOP MAN!!!!
And if current labour were like him they would be 30% CLEAR!!!!
(Ave it is working class who has gone conservative as I believe current labour is anti people like me from poor backgrounds who want to get on - i was labour in 1983!)
209. Correct! Superb local cuisine in darkest Bercow’land.
Being one of an endangered species, a Ken style pro-european Tory, Farage is on a sticky wicket with me anyway. Sounding off over Mr RumpyPumpy hardly impresses me.
213. S&S re 1812 - I guess it’s also a war that doesn’t fit in very well with the standard myths & narratives of US history - either the mindlessly patriotic versions or the ‘we have so much to be ashamed of’ versions.
In the UK, it’s hardly known at all. It doesn’t seem superficially to have been about anything much or to have led anywhere, so doesn’t attract much interest.
Stranger still though is the almost complete disappearence from memory of the Seven Years’ War, which was of massive importance in making Britain a world power. This is quite a recent thing - Wolfe of Quebec was certainly a schoolboy hero in times past. But he is no longer a fashionable figure…
Haha!! Like you used to date Mariella Frostrup who surprisingly has never heard of you! Perhaps you were using a pseudonym!!
by Roger March 3rd, 2010 at 11:16 pm
roger, are we supposed to infer from this post that Mariella is your BFF and you have discussed SeanT with her at length.
223 Svejk
Have just done so.
That comment isn’t on the BBC site, and not made by anyone at the BBC. It’s on Tweetmeme which is a Twitter aggregator.
http://tweetmeme.com/story/451981769/bbc-iplayer-prime-ministers-questions-13012010
226 - Talking about Michael Foot (loved his contribution in the no confidence debate of 1979)
Is my father the only person in the country who voted Labour in 1983 and Tory in 1997?
Last night’s news was dominated by the announcement of the Leader Debates - Clegg was side by side on split screen with Brown and Cameron and clips of all 3 were shown at the top of every news programme.
This could explain the LD rise in this evening’s YouGov poll. If so it may be an indicator of what will happen following the actual debates.
229. I would be disturbed if he was discussing SeanT’s length, that is a matter between him, and the many ladies he has paid.
231 i would have voted lab in 1983 (only 17 then) (and did in 1997) and would vote con in 2010!
231. This brings to mind the disturbing possibility that your father is Ave It.
The Lib dems had the good fortune for Clegg to be absent from PMQ’s where he is indifferent and to be on LBC where he played the reasonable guy, trying to help the country in a Westminster madhouse.
232. Yeah right
r
I’ve got a feeling that Old Gordo has blown it, AGAIN.
He could gone for a March election and maybe squeaked home, but no he dithered again.
He really is completely hopeless isn’t he ? He can’t make a decision about anything. I bet he spends 2 hrs deciding what colour socks to wear in the morning. I mean his wife did say that he gets up at a terrible hour. I wonder why.
Perhaps its 30 mins for sock decision.
30mins for fruit juice decision.
30 mins for tea or coffee decision.
30 mins for porridge or shredded wheat decison.
All added together, an extra 2 hrs. Yup, that sounds about right.
235 No. Ave It is tim’s father.
235 - You make that sound like a bad thing. It would be a good thing.
229. I worked with her.
216, notme - IF you think Sarah Palin was remarkably relaxed and polished last night, then check out Mitt Romney on Letterman, also last night. Thought he did VERY well, actually better than her - and she’s clearly more of a natural at this stuff.
I’m having visions of lots of posters on here saying to me
“No, I am your father”
232. The one big hope for the Tories during their current slide in the polls - and let’s face it, the decline in the lead is unhideable - is the resilience of their vote share.
Even at their crappiest, and boy have they been crap, the Tories have barely gone below 40% - 37% seems to be the floor.
This tells me that 37% of people are determined to hate Brown and give Labour a kicking, the best way possible, by electing a Tory government, no matter how lame the Tories might actually be.
Nearly all the Labour gains from ~25% a year ago to ~32% now have been at the expense of the LDs, Others and Don’t Knows - not the Tories.
Cameron just needs 40% of people to turn out on election day, determined to Hurt Labour, and he will win.
That’s maybe why we need some anti-Brown negativity from Cameron, amongst the positive vibes, to remind that 40% of Their Duty.
Political punters should look beyond the Ashcroft flim-flam and consider this Grauniad article highlighted on the previous thread:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/mar/03/treasury-spending-cuts-budget
The treasury chief secretary believes the government has been clear about how it will share the burden of cutting the deficit by £82bn over four years.
He has said £25bn will come from growth, £19bn from higher taxes of which half will be focused on the wealthiest 5%, and £38bn from spending cuts including £15bn from capital and £23bn from current spending, with the cuts kept from frontline NHS, police and schools.
Is that going to wash, with the media, the unions, the public, and the financial markets? It sounds to me as though it will fall between four stools:
1) Too much dependence on growth, which can’t be relied upon;
2) What, exactly, are these £19bn of taxes? That much can be raised only from the middle classes, not ‘the wealthiest’ - and increased taxes will impact on growth;
3) What, exactly, are these £23bn worth of cuts? It sounds too much to be painless, too little to address the seriousness of the problem;
4) In any case, halving the deficit will still mean that debt is rising rapidly.
It sounds an unconvincing fudge which will satisfy no-one and not address the real issue: massive over-spending and waste.
218 - putting ‘Professor’ in front of your name doesn’t make what you posted any less silly. You’re basing your entire point on the fact that the story resonates with the public, when all the evidence in the world - so far at least - suggests that it doesn’t and isn’t going to.
Kelvin Mackenzie and Yasmin Alibhai-Brown having a nice ding dong over Ashcroft.
Although YAB has brought up the idea of Kelvin going to the House of Lords.
Kelvin loves bashing lefties on the paper review
242. Yes, but Sarah Palin is darn hot, she is so hot she is smoking hot. Can you imagine having a cougar like her as POTUS?
230 Wibbler. Excuse my ignorance. As the heading was “BBC iPlayer”, I assumed it must be a BBC entry.I am sure most computer-illiterates like me would make the same assumption. Am still puzzled by the heading.
241. I offer you a bet of £1000 that I can provide photographic and testimonial proof that I did indeed date La Frostrup.
If you are a man you will accept this bet, or shut the F up like the sad, old, noisome little weasel-dropping that you are.
Deal?
Its absolutely pointless Labour talking about growth being utilised to pay off the debt, becaue we all know that when their is any growth in the economy, all those Labour twonks end up doing is spnding it on their stupid pet projects.
Granted some of their spending has been good. For example a school i visited recently was pretty damn good i grant you, as was the local hospital.
But that aside, Labour have got this most irritating of knacks of spending money to ‘equalise’ when those inequalities are dictated to be nature. They spend so much money battling nature and trying to ensure that every child who wants to, can train for the Olympics to run against Usain Bolt in the 100m, or train to be a rocket scientist, when their ability to do so is 99% determined by genetics, and f*ck all to do with nuture.
They really need to grow and stop wasting other people’s money.
roger, must be fascinating cross examining colleagues about former lovers, you do have an interesting job.
253 - he’s a tube of Vagiclean, so he probably knows who has been in and out at any one time.
Well, I’ve just toodled back from my local in Datchet village and did a few political soundings amongst the regulars. Ashcroft malarkey barely registered: amongst those who’d heard about it, the majority put it down to one lot of politicians berating another lot during an election campaign. (Though a sizable minority thought it was a Labour sleaze thing about not strengthening the laws on tax exiles!). Anyway, as this poll bears out, a non-story.
253 - Not just any colleagues, FAMOUS colleagues.
251 – SeanT, the idea may be novel, unique even, but could you save a lady’s blushes for once and try a little decorum.
Unless the evidence is a photo incorporating a stained glass window on a deserted island off the coast of Cannes, in which case it is merely ‘art’.
240 ty TSE!
257. Very clever. How did you know that? Is it in my book? lol.
226 - I’m not sure the genuine working classes speak of themselves in the third person.
I think the important thing here is that Roger is alleging that when he worked with Ms Frostrup, at no point did she say to him “See that Sean Thomas, I’ve had him.”
How plausible is that?
259. You’ve told us that more than once.
261 - is not “Sean” the equivalent of “John”? In which case ….
262. Me and my big mouth. As Mariella said.
OT Stephen Carter who was reduced to tears by Gordon’s bullying before being bought off with a peerage for his silence, has landed new job. Though it seems the new head of comms for tech giants Alcatel-Lucent has airbrushed out his time in the bunker from his CV.
…
There is a sense of satisfaction that Carter is now earning hundreds of thousands, while McBride is picking up litter in a playground.
http://order-order.com/2010/03/03/carter-airbushes-out-his-bunker-time/
228- SSI: “re 1812 - I guess it’s also a war that doesn’t fit in very well with the standard myths & narratives of US history - either the mindlessly patriotic versions or the ‘we have so much to be ashamed of’ versions.”
I was thinking the same thing… the War of 1812 doesn’t serve anybody’s political agenda today, so nobody except real history buffs have much interest in it anymore.
One aspect of that war that is completely overlooked in American tellings (although probably not in British versions) is that it took place in the context of the broader continental war raging in Europe. It is fascinating to consider that while Wellington was outfoxing Old Boney all across the face of Europe, scrappy bands of poorly trained and poorly equipped Yanks were giving the Brits fits in the New World.
More details on Trevor McDonald’s interview with David Cameron:
Will be on ITV1 on Sunday 14 March, will include behind the scenes bits and also campaign events (presuambly Cameron Direct). This looks like a positive for Cameron.
There will also be a programme with Clegg.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7361638/David-Cameron-to-film-behind-the-scenes-interview-with-Sir-Trevor-McDonald.html
Anon and anent. I am a bit drunk and I have spent the entire day with my accountant. I have the odd light-hearted feeling you get after completing a course of dental work.
Tomorrow and tomorrow. I’m off to watch Breaking Bad.
William Hague, the shadow foreign secretary, revealed tonight that he became aware of Lord Ashcroft’s “non-dom” tax status “over the last few months”.
In an interview for The World Tonight on Radio 4, Mr Hague said he did not know of Lord Ashcroft’s tax status when he became a peer a decade ago because it was a private matter for the cabinet office.
“I don’t ask people what their tax status is and what they’ve negotiated with the cabinet office,” Mr Hague said.
“I knew the cabinet office would set that out and agree it with Michael Ashcroft but I would not of course no the details of it,” Mr Hague added.
Upon learning of Lord Ashcroft’s status a few months ago, Mr Hague said he was “very keen to support him then in making his declaration public.”
Mr Hague rejected suggestions that Lord Ashcroft had reneged on what he had negotiated with the cabinet office. “You cannot possibly say he reneged on something he agreed with the cabinet office,” he said.
Mr Hague tried to deflect the issue towards other parties and urged the media to investigate funding from other “non-doms” and trade unions.
“It’s high time the BBC moved on to the real funding issue in Britain which is howcome three-quarters of the funding for the Labour party comes from trade unions, the huge party of the Unite union,” he said.
“It’s time to ask other parties about the non-doms who have funded those parties to a huge extent and about the trade unions who fund the Labour party in return for policy favours and for public expenditure being spent in that direction”
Mr Hague implied that Lord Ashcroft had been disproportionately scrutinised and targeted by other political parties and the media.
“I know it’s disappointing for commentators and other political parties but really the fox has been shot on this and they no longer have Michael Ashcroft to complain about.
Why haven’t other peers who have been “non-doms” been asked for any tax commitment?” he asked.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/6217/key_exchanges_hague_reveals_he_learned_of_lord_ashcrofts_status_over_the_last_few_months_.html
Con have won
Lab have lost
Huhne =
“Quite what’s driven the move to the Lib Dems I don’t know”
Maybe: voters moving away from LAB and CON because of the bad news.
Probably: Nothing…they’ve been between 16-19% for ages!
270 - Ave It = Posh boy
267
“Mr Cameron was asked to appear on Mr Morgan’s show but declined, saying that he preferred to do “something a bit more substantial”. ”
So no questions about his membership of the mile high club then? How sad for Brown that he had to pimp himself out for sympathy in an effort to retain power.
Doubt the Cameron interview will have much of an impact, since it won’t get any of the media coverage that Piers received.
270 Astonishing! Move over Nick Robinson. In-depth political analysis that only requires 7 words, a symbol and an emoticon.
272. Just need a catchy, “Tears for Piers” esque slogan.
Clever with Trevor?
Interesting
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2010/03/tory-digital-gamble-on-polling-day.html
Anyone on politicalBETTING, willing to accept a BET! Tories to pol 40% or above?
266 S&S
When I phoned my American daughter in law after 9/11, I commented that it must be even worse since the US hadn’t suffered an external attack on the continental USA before. She came straight back with - Yes we did. You guys in 1812!
At least State High Schools in NC seemed to teach about the war1
272 - McDonald’s Big Flop?
Re: War of 1812, it is indeed very interesting because (like Korean War) it is so neglected.
It did have a tremendous impact on the United States AND Canada. In terms of US historical memory and popular culture, there are I think three main narratives/myths:
1. The British attacking and burning Washington (in retaliation for the Yankees burning York, aka Toronto). Including most prominently the story of how Dolley Madison saved the painting. Even little kids get the point right from the get-go: that our young nation survived a disaster, and that the burning of the White House was nothing compared to the saving of what was then (and still is) one of our greatest national treasures.
2. The US Navy, Old Ironsides and the Battle of Lake Eire. Our army may have been inept (but see 3. below) but our navy was definitely not. Indeed, depite the impressment of our sailors (formerly yours) our salts excelled at (as National Lampoon once described it) “beating off the British”! Speaking of books, recently read a great book describing the naval battle where Captain Lawrence was the US commander. US navy had excellent crews and (thanks to unusual foresight and compentence by Congress & Executive branch) ships that were not only fast, but larger and better gunned than most of their British counterparts. So they won a number of early engagements, boosting American morale (even in places like New England where the war was very unpopular). Until that is Capt Lawrence encoutered a British sailor who was a master at gunnery, who drilled his crew to perfection. And he blasted the Americans, defeating them after hours of hard fighting in which Lawrence was mortally wounded.
In the days that followed, Lawrence never regained consciousness. But it was clear what he was thinking, because he kept on shouting: “Don’t give up the ship!” Now that ship was lost, but the Brits respected Lawrence for his guts and reported his heroism, including his final words.
Which became the battle cry of am American fleet constructed from scratch on the southern shore of Lake Eire, lead by Commadore Perry. Who led his force into another battle, this time a US victory. At one point, Perry’s flagship was so badly damaged that he was rowed across to another vessil, and resumed the fight. Today if you visit Presque Isle, PA you can see a replica of his flagship - the Lawrence - flying a blue flag emblazoned with “Don’t Give Up the Ship!”
3. The Battle of New Orleans, which famously took place after the peace treaty had been signed, but before anyone on the scene heard the news. And just as famously was where Andy Jackson and his backwoods army blasted apart the ranks of some of the Duke of Wellington’s finest Peninsula War veterans. Am sure many PBers remember the Johnny Horton hit (of song written by Jimmy Driftwood). This victory not only made Jackson president (eventually) but it transformed the war from a draw (the objective result) into a great victory (at least as far as Americans are concerned).
As noted, the War of 1812 (aka Mr. Madison’s War) had a tremendous impact on Canada, leastways English-speaking Canada. With the great story/myth being the defense of the Niagara Frontier against US invasion. Which produced a hero and a heroine. The first was Sir Issac Brock, the British general who not only defeated the Americans opposite Detroit, but then (reminiscent of King Harold) raced to the other end of Lake Erie to defeat the Yankees again, at the Battle of Queenston Heights. Where he was killed, and where Canadians later errected a very neat monument to his memory. The heroine was Laura Secord (her monument is a brand of candy, quite yummy) the daughter of American Loyalists who settled there after the losing the Revolution. The invading Yankees occupied the farm and used her house as their HQ. Which is how she heard their battle plans . . . then slipped out and hiked for many miles until she reached the British lines to give warning.
For both US and Canada the War of 1812 was part of the nation building process. For native Americans/Canadians is was an episode of their destruction. The great Indian leader was Tecumseh - arguably the greatest Indian ever - who gave his life trying to unite the native peoples of eastern North America, and who died trying, at the Battle of the Thames. He was one Indian whom the Whites respected, alive and dead. And his memory is still a part of popular culture, esp. in the American Midwest.
A good article in the Guardian on how the pupil premium will provide a natural starting point for a Lib Dem/Con pact in the event of a hung Parliament.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/04/schooling-more-for-poor
266. Stars and Stripes March 3rd, 2010 at 11:55 pm
“I was thinking the same thing… the War of 1812 doesn’t serve anybody’s political agenda today, so nobody except real history buffs have much interest in it anymore.”
Very true.
A few years ago I was out walking with my girlfriend and her dog, which was a Chesapeake Bay retriever, and we met a woman with a flat-coated retriever and got to talking with her. It turned out that her dog was called Shannon.
“My god!” I exclaimed, “What a coincidence: the Shannon and the Chesapeake!” but neither of them knew what I was talking about
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Chesapeake_%281799%29#Chesapeake_vs_Shannon
266, S&S - there was PLENTY of ineptitude on our side, we spent most of the land war losing! Andy Jackson was one of the few US army (as opposed to navy) heroes. Another incidentially was Winfield Scott (Lundy’s Lane & Battle of the Thames) who was the leading US general from them until the start of the Civil War nearly forty years later. Another was Richard Johnson, one of the “Hunters of Kentucky” who was credited with having killed Tecumseh in battle, and eventually was nominated and elected Vice President as a result.
277, old nat - Yes, we may not know a great deal about the details - but we know what you did! BUT to our way of thinking, we got even.
And even better, it resulted in what is still (even after 9/11) the longest undefended border in the world. As symbolized not far from my current location, at the Peace Arch at Blaine, WA/White Rock, BC.
279 SSI. Err…. a high quality contribution - as ever - but I don’t know if now is the best time to be talking about Anglo-American conflicts, especially in the light of the less than positive sounds coming from the US State Department regarding the Falklands.
121
Or more likely David that there is something amiss with the political indentifiers being used by YouGov in Scotland.
They now dramatically differ from those used by any other poll and make a difference of up to perhaps 6-7 per cent in recorded Labour support (and reduce SNP support by around the same margin) which , in turn is inflating, albeit marginally, the published Labour UK figures.
174. But of course you’d expect nothing less from a LibDem like Colin Firth:
http://www.libdemvoice.org/what-links-colin-firth-ken-macdonald-brian-eno-gurkha-veteran-madan-kumar-gurung-pam-giddy-floella-benjamin-and-duwayne-brooks-18169.html
LOL
Darius got the words to Flower of Scotland wrong at Hampden, apparently.
281, MK - Shannon & Chesapeake - Yes! That’s the battle where Lawrence said “Don’t give up the ship!”
Note also that there are ten US states with counties named after Capt. Lawrence, including one in PA (where I was born) and in Ohio (where I briefly lived).
283, Disraeli - as I said earlier, take that with about a ton of road salt.
283- The way Anglo-American relations are proceeding during this administration, we may have a re-enactment of the War of 1812 just in time for its bicentennial!
287, S&S - yeah, the Brits will be landing on the shores of Palm Beach . . . while the Yanks invade the stores of London!
287 S&S
As long as you don’t lock up my son and grandson, and lots of other relatives - like you did with the Japanese!
287 S&S. “…we may have a re-enactment of the War of 1812 just in time for its bicentennial!”
I hope not. I’m pro-American (& Canadian), and getting more so as my enthusiasm for Europe wanes.
I very much regret it when the UK and US seem to be at variance.
287, S&S - actually IF we can get the Canadians to give a fiddler’s fig about the Falklands (a dubious proposition) then perhaps we can fight AND get 54-40! Then at least you wouldn’t need a passport (thank you NOT Dick Chenney) to visit Kamloops!
Nytol
289- Don’t tempt us!
291- That uncharacteristically peaceful settlement of the 54 40 dispute didn’t work out very well for you Seattle folks, as it turned out! Where was that spirit of manifest destiny when we needed it?!
289, old nat - secret in that department, is to make sure the numbers of your countrymen/women are large enough to make wholesale internment impractical. Worked for the Germans and Italians!
Plus helps if you can blend in. Which was tough for the Japanese without cosmetic surgery. So if American’s become alarmed by the Caledonian Menace, make sure you bury your kilts in the back yard . . .
BTW, out here on Puget Sound the internment of Japanese Americans is part of living history. Very good friend of mine spent part of childhood behind barbed wire. And even after VJ Day, it was very difficult for most to return to their West Coast homes, esp. when those homes and other property had been taken from them by various means. And the rest of the US didn’t exactly throw out the welcome mat.
A major exception: Chicago. Which is where my friend’s family ended up. She returned several years later, but her parents never did.
293, S&S - we’re really pretty happy out here with the 49th parallel. It’s fun having a foriegn country at our doorstep, even more when they speak English (kinda) AND when the exchange rate is favorable (up until W the loonie was worth about 60-70 cents US.
I have to say I do like Canada yet I visit the USA way more, year in, year out. I’ll be in DC/Northern Virginia by next weekend.
My intention is to go the hilariously bad Shamrockfest @ RFK and have a laugh at Americans trying to be Irish. I’m probably going to upset someone…..
296, Yokel - do you have tickets? website claims they’re going fast.
IF you are moved to break into song, may I suggest “The Old Orange Flute” as oppposed to “Croppies Lie Down!”?
I was hoping to go to Countryfest in Donegal this year but it looks like I have a stag do to go to that weekend. Grrr
My London friends are unlikely to think Countryfest is an appropriate venue
297. All sorted by friends there.
I wrote to the organising company suggesting an area called True West Belfast, populated by hoodies throwing bricks & bottles featuring women in bad tracksuits. An earlier suggestion of a stolen car joyriding display team, complete with green white and orange coloured exhaust plumes, was vetoed.
What seals it as a sham is the lack of Smithwicks. A mate of mine tells me Bass seems to be ale on sale. If they knew anything there’d be the brew from 1710…and Killians Irish Red..Irish my arse…
298. Try the National Ploughing Championships down in Athy this year. Big old event.
Interesting N.American history today! I hadn’t realised who Tecumseh was previously. I have only ever really associated that name as being the middle name of US general William Tecumseh Sherman - the dude who won the civil war, burnt Atlanta and much of the rest of Georgia and lives in history as a hard nut, but the sort of general you want running your war if you actually want to win. (I believe even 150 years later his name is still hated in the Confederate south).
300 - I think my other half wants to go there. She misses her tractor in Brent.
302. Norn Iron is clearly the spiritual home home of the modern tractor thanks to Harry Ferguson, so much so that I invariably get stuck behind one every time I’m going Enniskillen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzSjPKTTyPI
Enjoy
Maybe Cammo could use “Don’t Give Up Britain!” as a slogan…
Killians Irish Red - as Irish as Adolph Coors!
Your vision of True West Belfast sounds pretty much like a pale imitation (literally) of Real Northeast DC. If you don’t find it inside the stadium, just go to the parking lot and jog (or rather spint) a few blocks . . .
Holy good f**k where’d you come up with that from? Your parther would likely be aware of Hugo Duncan, the only thing of note to come out of Strabane apart from the statistic that it had the highest unemployment rate of anywhere in Europe at one point.
If you want to hear 2 hours of that kind of stuff every bloody day you should tune in to Hugo on BBC Radio Ulster….
307 - When she’s off work we do.
We were thinking of getting Curtis Magee for our wedding as apparently the father in law knows him. So we borrowed a CD and I loved that song. I just thought I’d see if it was on YouTube when you mentioned Harry.
Isn’t the internet bloody awesome?
We also got a free Hugo CD from the Sunday Life.
Concerns over the health of one of Labour’s rising stars has grown after it emerged he had left a rehabilitation clinic specialising in treating drug and alcohol addiction.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/7359352/Steven-Purcell-leaves-rehab-clinic.html
401, Patrick - you are right, WTS is NOT what you’d call beloved by confederate descendents!
For example, in his hometown of Lancaster, Ohio, the local McDonalds has (or at least used to) a portrait of Gen. Sherman. Knew a fellow from Georgia who was traveling up north, was passing through Lancaster and stopped in at the golden arches to get a burger and fries. He walked in, took one look at the portrait . . and walked right out!
On similar note, there was amusing incident during the presidency of Jimmy Carter, when he visited a city (can’t remember if it was US or overseas) and a local bandmaster decided it would be a nice touch to welcome the President, after Hail to the Chief, with another number: Marching Through Georgia. JC was NOT pleased . . .
Incidentially, there is one interesting exception to Dixie Shermanophobia, namely Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Why? Because in 1860 Wm T was the first president of what became Louisiana State University. He left in 1861, telling the faculty and students they were nuts if they thought the North was going to accept secession without a fight.
When I was a student there years ago (like the Randy Newman song says: “Good ole boys from LSU/Went in dumb come out dumb too”) there was a fine oil painting of WTS in the building that housed the offices of the School of Arts & Sciences. Bit of a surprise for visiting historians!
407, Yokel - re; “the only thing of note to come out of Strabane” (rhymes with Spokane!) won’t take that personally, though about half of my Hibernian relatives hailed from that town (in 1840s) most of the rest from Ballyboofey.
Speaking of tractors, definitely an Irish affinity. Note that the HQ of Catepiller is Peoria, Illinois, which had (and to a degree still does) a sizeable Irish (Catholic) component.
Thanks for posting “My Little Massey Ferguson” David! Yokel, perhaps you’d have more luck getting Curtis Magee on the bill for next year’s Shamrockfest. Might be a hit IF the crowd’s well lubricated, and I’m sure that a moral certainty.
Sherman looked the part too. Nearly all American generals of the era wore those long frock-coats with belts and sashes on the outside.
Compare Custer to Sherman. Custer looked like a fop, some sort of throwback to 18th century dandies. He had beautifully coiffed long bolnd hair and an exquisitely gay blond moustache. I can imagine that at the end of a day’s march his first question would be: ‘What’s for my dinner?’. No wonder he overlooked establishing a perimeter and setting guards and patrols.
Sherman? Looked like cage fighter. In an age of over-genteel manners he was a mess. Rumpled uniform. Pock marked skin. A buzzcut that would like spot on for a Jarhead even today. And a mean scowl. He reminds me very much of the nasty army guy in Avatar. His first question at the end of a day’s march would be: ‘Have you burned every plantation between here and the horizon?’