Was the AV vote designed to put Clegg on the spot?
February 10th, 2010
Did Brown want the yellows to be favouring the reds?
Just reflecting on last night’s commons vote on the alternative vote system I wonder whether the received opinion is wrong about Brown’s motives.
The general presumption is that Labour hopes that Clegg and his party will now look at Labour more favourably in the unlikely event of a hung parliament. But hasn’t the aim been much more short-term than that?
For the form of what’s described as “electoral reform” that’s represented by AV is an abomination to the Lib Dems. It doesn’t deal with their main concern that the numbers of MPs each party gets should be in line with how the nation voted. In many way AV makes that worse.
The problem is that for 99% of the population the difference between AV and proportional representation is not one that is easily grasped and apparently Labour are “giving the Lib Dems what they want”.
Clegg and his team knew that only too well but it would have been hard justifying to their members any other course than the one they followed. My reading is that Brown knew this and wanted the Lib Dems to be publicly associated with a major Labour initiative ahead of the election.
This reinforces his “dividing lines” and helps him to portray the Tories as being opposed to reform.
But has he been too clever by half? In the event of a Cameron majority we’ll see a Tory “fair votes” measure. This will use all the same rhetoric of the AV argument but will focus on two measures - equalising the size of constituencies and reducing their number. The voting system will remain intact but you can bet your bottom dollar that the consequential boundary changes will make an early Labour return to power that much harder.
Meanwhile the Lib Dems have been seen to back Labour against the Tories.
Mike Smithson
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First?
The incredible thing is that Brown still thinks that there’s a chance that Clegg will support him in the event of a hung parliament, but I think it’s pretty obvious to everyone else apart from Brown that Clegg will not want to be seen propping up a Labour government which has just been removed from power after 13 years. So it looks like yet more extremely poor judgement from Brown.
Brown can fool himself that because the LDs voted for AV that it means somehow the LDs might support Labour in a hung parliament. Maybe if Brown had offered STV it might be a different story but AV won’t be enough for the LDs to risk everything on keeping Brown in power.
libs should have abstained at worst. clegg has messed up big time.
This AV scam, which is not PR as you correctly said, was a last ditch attempt to avoid labour spending 10 to 15 years in the wilderness, thereby only leaving their core vote of non working benefit recipients, aliens and semi working public servants who think the world owes them a living.
Combined that would never be enough to form a government, except in Scotland where with so many in public service and the unemployable, sorry unemployed; that alliance of 28% hits closer to 40%.
Has ming the merciless been talking to gordon again, and why did they not offer an alternative liberal supported option other than AV?
I’m sure the LDs would happily prop up Brown’s government for another five years in return for STV.
But in return for AV? I don’t think so.
“Meanwhile the Lib Dems have been seen to back Labour against the Tories.”
Absolutely right Mike…… oh dear……. vote Yellow get Brown.
So fewer vote LibDem and more vote Tory.
What exactly do Labour get out out of the AV vote?
Am I right in thinking that both AV and STV could be a nightmare for the LibDems in the short term?
They would obviously get a decent number of 2nd preference votes, but might they not also lose a significant number of 1st choice votes of people who could afford not to support the LDs as a tactical measure? Add to that the fact that a large number of people who don’t vote Lib Dem wouldn’t put the Libs as 2nd vote but rather would just cast a single ballot, and I could see them plummeting in the numbers of seats they got (if it remained single member constituencies).
Straight proportional representation would surely work best for them. Single Member AV/STV could be a really damaging proposition for them, I would have thought…
What can Labour get out of the AV vote? Surely, the opportunity to write a manifesto promise to give the British people a referendum on the alternative vote.
Rather as they and the LDs previously gave manifesto promises to give the British people a referendum on … oops.
The thing that amazes me about the LibDems last night was how cheaply they sold their virtue.
And, as Seth o’Logue says on the last thread, the bill has slim-none chance of getting thru before the election, so Clegg prostituted himself for nothing.
Mike makes the point that AV puts them in a worse position so you have to question their judgement supporting it.
But, for those who followed it live on BBC Parliament, the amazing thing is how the LibDems supported Labour in the first ballot something like 365-187.
And yet, they were crushed in the second one 69 - 476, where the LibDem amendment for STV was not just defeated but obliterated.
They were seen to be toadying-up to Labour, who then bitch-slapped them just like OGH knocked-down tim yesterday.
They’re like Millwall. In Parliament, everyone hates them but they don’t care. Not to sort of way to behave if you’re trying to pass yourself off as king-makers in a hung parliament [mind you, not much chance of that.]
It’s a truism that LibDem voters are just a bit more likely to vote Tory than Labour if there’s no LibDem candidate on the ballot [love-bombing]. Yet LibDem activists nearly always prefer Labour. There’s a fundamental disconnect between the LibDem elected representatives and their voters.
And that’s what we saw last night. The activists [MPs] showed their true colours.
Perhaps that’s what Brown wanted. If so, it’s a ghastly miscalculation because it gives the Tories the evidence to say ‘vote yellow, get brown’ and to encourage wavering yellow voters to place their Cross in the blue-box.
And Clegg did all this whilst voting for something that puts his party in a worse position with a system that works against him.
Clegg. Go and get your coat.
Bunnco, in your know;ledgeable view what would Clegg’s agenda actually be, what was offered to him to bend over in this fashion for something the party openly says it does not want?
Oh, and another thing. Let’s say that Brown did think he was being clever by trapping the LibDems. Can someone explain to me quite how trying to change the voting system so close to the election can be seen by a swing-voter as anything other than a cynical attempt to rig future elections?
And how might this play-out in the local elections that Labour will need to win in the next few years in order to rebuild themselves. How many dyed-in-the-wool Labour activists who knock on doors in Council Wards will embrace AV? Or are we going to keep FPTP for local elections?
Apart from creating a bogus ‘dividing line’, it difficult to see that trapping the LibDems was worth alienating the sort of voter who now sees Labour as vote-riggers.
Am sure am not the first one to mention, but why are Labour promising a referendum on AV after promising a referendum on Lisbon?
1) Will it remind voters of past promises broken?
2) Why do they offer referendums on things people don’t care about
Gordon loves those dividing lines doesn’t he?
The problem is, as also pointed out yesterday, that the broadly not interested public don’t necessarily see the issues the way that the zealots from either side of the political divide do.
Brown thinks: ‘Ah. I have create a divide between those who want reform and those who don’t. Only the Tories are against it. Surely everyone must be for it. Therefore Labour will benefit electorally’.
But the man on the Clapham omnibus just thinks: ‘What a cynical cun^ that man Brown is’.
I have referred before to OODA Loops:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OODA_loop
Brown’s is badly broken. In politics you just have to have at least some sense of the way an ordinary person will see things. Brown is hopelessly blinkered by his own highly political and partisan take on everything. In other words - he’s a spectacularly crap politician.
This seems to me to be a major win for the Tories. By forcing the LibDems to vote with Labour, Brown has made this upcoming election even more a Tory vs Labour two horse race, which will squeeze the LibDems badly, primarily to the benefit of the Tories.
11 Quite right Bunnco - it was foolosh of Brown to introduce the AV legislation and even more foolish of the the LibDems to allow themselves be seduced by it.
The net result? - Maybe another few seats for the Tories at the forthcoming GE.
I wonder whether Dave will repeat his Mrs Merton impression at today’s PMQs? I assume Brown is actually attending PMQs this week.
10 - What would LibDems have been offered?
Whatever they were offered, it wasn’t worth the risk of being branded ‘Vote Yellow, Get Brown’ by the Tories. It’s not exactly as if they can afford to be squeezed any further.
And, even if they were offered something, surely they should have realised that the bill stands slim-none chance of getting to the Statute Book. They’ve given up everything. For nothing.
Just about the only remaining USP the LibDems have left is that they will pick-and-choose ‘fair’ policies from both parties in the result of a hung parliament. If they can’t be ‘fair’ to themselves when they get a chance to vote in Parliament how could anyone assume that they’d be ‘fair’ to anyone else.
In the Dance-of-the-Seven-Veils, the dancer takes off her clothing one piece at a time, teasing the audience until they’ll do anything. She keeps ‘em guessing.
The Tories now know that there’s no point in love-bombing Clegg. At the first temptation, Clegg just removes all his clothes for Brown and stands there. And gets laughed at.
Well Done Nick. A good night’s work. Idiot.
There was also the chance for Parliament to look like it was actually doing something important, to fill the days before an election. Because the alternatives were either call the election now - or take some meaningful action on MP’s expenses - neither of which seem to be very appealling to Gordon.
15 foolosh = foolish (but nice word “foolosh” - I will use it again!)
The point about LibDem voters being in a different box from the party’s activists and MPs is a very important one. I suspect that the LibDem MPs felt great last night and that they were striking a first blow on the journey towards STV.
The ‘basically Labour but in sandals’ wing of their voters may sort of agree. However, the ‘might go Tory, might go LibDem and don’t really like the commies’ wing of their voters will not be impressed. A big ‘wet Tory’ tactical unwind beckons.
Clegg should have made a nakedly self-interested decision weeks ago about how we wants to play this GE. In England he’ll lose many seats to Dave’s steamroller and there’s really jackdiddlysquat he can do about that. The real risk of a nightmare result for him comes from Labour (witness the collapse in Scotland). He should have bitten the bullet and absorbed the inevitable bitching from his MPs and taken a markedly more anti-Labour than anti-Dave approach. Too late.
Now he’s Brown’s dangleberry and we all know it.
But the best bit about last night’s debate was the accusation by Labour from the despatch box that it was the Tories that were Gerrymandering the Election by refusing to back Labour.
No wonder TSE’s Irony Meter overheated so much it needed 500 fire engines to put out the flames.
But seriously, this whole charade does give Cameron the opportunity and legitimacy to get to grips with the expenses system and to develop radical plans to equalise the size of constituencies and trim the number of MPs, which, in the long run, will be helpful to him.
As MM says, [17.] Brown could have at least tried to address the expenses issue in a meaningful way. But he couldn’t help himself from trying to trap the LibDem. Advantage Cameron.
Brown’s dangleberry
…now that is a truly horrific mental image - sorry everyone. Don’t know where it came from.
I’ll buy myself some mindbleach.
Isn’t it nice without the Scottish Parish Councillors whining about potholes this morning.
No doubt the Jockanese contingent will arrive shortly and turn this into yet another Scotland discussion.
Stuart, if you do, please could you make the flavour of your Scottish angle on this about why the LibDems are tanking so spectacularly in Scotland? Ta.
The Government’s argument is so weak.
The Prime Minister has argued that the new Alternative Vote system could help reform Parliament in the wake of the expenses scandal.
This is the man who has consistently shrunk from disciplining his own team when they transgressed.
All we need to do over expenses is enforced transparency, not yet more rushed, ill thought out and plainly partisan constitutional vandalism.
Clegg should have resisted the charm offensive. If he had stood up and said AV is rubbish, we want STV, then it would have done him a lot more good.
1) Lib Dem anoraks would have understood
2) Other potential Lib Dem voters, would have felt more comfortable that he is not Gordon Brown’s mini me.
Bunnco, I cannot believe Clegg did this unless there was some personal benefit, it is clearly a mad decision.
Getting labour to abstain on PR was at least the minimum he could have asked for.
Having been Labour’s puppy in Scotland in a dog of a Labour Scottish government some years ago, the Squib Dums are now getting less than half the vote they did then, around 11% compared to 23%.
Their vote outside Hielan’ Teuchterville* has collapsed. Getting rid of Kennedy does excuse some of this, but not 50% surely.
Or maybe Scotland genuinely votes for Brown because he is our man, being Scottish, even if he is a plonker.
“He’s an eejit, but he’s OOR eejit”.
Would they vote for a labour leader from Kent with such enthusiasm?
I doubt it the more I think of the unique mentality of the sheep who vote for the red rosette in Scotland.
* The sticky out northern bits of Scotland where wild haggis still roam and everyone has big red beards.
various people wrote various anecdotes about dates of birth, anniversaries and gestation periods
My brother and I were born 9 months 14 days, and 18 months 19 days (respectively) after our parents’ wedding.
Tom Harris “Is the stainless reputation of Italian politicians down to their use of PR?”
No, the stainful reputation of Italian politicians is because of their abandonment of PR.
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That list of proposed STV constituencies, as described in the Lib Dems’ amendment to the Bill, is so laughably obvious and partial that even I - a lifelong STV supporter - would have voted against it. I would also have voted against their STV amendment because it describes a version of STV which would require computer counting, rather than a hand-counting version such as Newland-Brittan. STV must not be used as a Trojan horse for computerised counting or voting.
astateofdenmark Can a supporter of the LD nonsense explain to me why the LD seat of Argyll and Bute remains a tiny one member constituency, but the absolutely huge london boroughs of Croydon and Bromley are combined?
Apart from the lack of LDs in the latter and the former being a LD seat, I can’t think of any.
Congratulations on winning the you’ve-just-answered-your-own-question of the year award.
If you’re so desperate for STV, why not propose sensible constituencies? eg, Brighton on it’s own. East Sussex on it’s own. London boroughs on their own. etc.
Those are indeed the ones which I do propose. Preferably with 3 or 4 MPs each, if need be with 2 or 5, only in extreme cases with 1 or 6.
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Chris A
Argyll & Bute 6909 sq km
Croydon & Bromley 237 sq km
Anyway it would be for the Boundary commissions to allocate the seats and sizes of the constituencies in any STV election.
The number of MPs per constituency should be determined by the identity of the community, not the geographical area. Argyll & Bute should be combined with either the rest of the Highlands, or the neighbouring bits of Dumbarton etc., and should not be a single seat on its own. Croydon and Bromley should be two separate constituencies with 3 MPs each, not a big monstrosity with 6.
In any case, the proposed amendment specifies what the boundaries should be and does not leave them to be determined by the BoundaryCommission.
come on just give me one cogent reason why a constituency of North Birmingham or Croydon and Bromley is so dreadful? Just one.
Contaminating glorious wonderful Croydon with ghastly smelly Bromley would be dreadful in itself; in any case 6 is too big.
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ryans Field raises a good point about the values of the first vote being the same as someones second vote. Maybe second and third votes should be weighted as pollsters do for those saying 9/10; 8/10; 7/10 likely to vote?
That’s not a “good point”. It’s a ludicrous and ridiculous point, innumerate and illogical.
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JohnKellett Forgive my ignorance, but what’s the difference between STV and AV?
STV is proportional; AV is not proportional.
STV uses multi-member constituencies; AV uses single-member constituencies.
For example: using AV, Cornwall would have five constituencies, and each one would (probably) elect a Lib Dem MP. Using STV, it would be a single constituency with 5 MPs; there would probably be 2 Lib Dems, 2 Conservatives, and 1 Labour.
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Tabman Can a member of The Borg please explain to me why AV automatically means a Lab/Lib alliance?
It doesn’t. Gordon thinks it does.
I thought recent polling showed LD voters splitting evenly, or even favouring Con to Lab?
It does. Gordon thinks it doesn’t.
If the desire to Get Rid Of Brown is out there (and it is), then AV will facilitate that in spades?
It will. Gordon thinks it won’t.
I don’t understand where you get this notion that AV is good for Brown. Given his predilection for Doing The Wrong Thing, surely its obvious that this is exactly the worng option for him?
It is wrong. Gordon thinks it is right.
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Nick Palmer MP mentioned two of the Communist MPs, Willie Gallacher and Phil Piratin; the others were Shapurji Saklatvala, Cecil Malone and Walton Newbold. Saklatvala Hall in Southall is now the HQ/meeting place of the CPGB(ML).
Bunnco/Patrick, I hope the humour and answering of the question made up for the Jockanese.
The real weakness the Govt has on its little day trip to the land of voting reform is in pushing for the one system of change that would - oh look! - have given Labour more seats if it had been in place in 2005. It wasn’t anything idealogically driven. Nothing from the heart. It was dreamt up by the likes of Campbell and Mandy and McBride with short-term political gain at its core. The LibDems should have pointed out the game being played by Labour - and told them to come back when they were serious.
Radio 5 strangely silent on The Great Reform vote last night?
I’ve got to go and do some work now, but for those of you tuning-in to PMQ’s this afternoon, just hang around for the next announcement at 12.30 from Communities Secretary John Denham.
If you listen carefully, he’ll be granting Exeter and Norwich city council’s “unitary status”. And hidden in the text, he’ll be announcing that the Council elections in Labour-run Norwich on May 6th will be cancelled.
As Labour were certain to be defeated by the Greens in May, cancelling the election let’s them hang-on for another year and dodge the electorate’s verdict. In their dying days, Labour is playing fast-and-loose with the voting system.
There’s no guarantee, the measure will get through Parliament and we can only hope that the Lords see the Norwich decision as another cynical ploy to hold onto power in the name of ‘change’.
As someone who believes passionately in democracy, this vote-fiddle shames us all. It’s simply outrageous. It’s Gerrymandering.
“For the form of what’s described as “electoral reform” that’s represented by AV is an abomination to the Lib Dems.”
And yet they voted for it. It blows their “principle” argument out of the water. Coupled with the fact that they changed their mind on a referendum they did promise, and the LibDems have made an absolute blunder. Really stupid. They should have abstained and said that they’d have voted for a proper PR change, not some self serving exercise.
“Radio 5 strangely silent on The Great Reform vote last night?”
Nothing on Today up till 6.45. Only a passing mention in relation to the Election Night amendment, and only then saying that it would not pass into law, unlike the attempt to save election night.
23. Patrick
No can do I’m afraid. I like to spread my disdain pretty evenly on the Unionist parties, although if I did have to differentiate between the Unionist parties, then I would rank them in the following order (from most “honest”/”consequent” to least honest/least consequent):
1. Conservatives
2. Labour
3. Liberal Democrats
I would never, ever cast a vote for any of them (eg. in STV or AV election), however, I reserve special disdain for the Lib Dems. As does every right-thinking individual who truly knows their politics.
- “Did Brown want the yellows to be favouring the reds?”
For Scots, it is hardly a secret that the yellows and the reds are blood brothers. Just look at the entire history of the campaign for Scottish devolution, from the 1970’s onwards (prior to this devolution was largely a Tory wheeze -> anyone remember the Declaration of Perth?)
In case anyone has forgotten:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Constitutional_Convention
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotland_Forward
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_the_1st_Scottish_Parliament
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_the_2nd_Scottish_Parliament
32 A crap on the LibDems is good enough for me. Well done sir!
Third rate, illogical, unserious, puffed up, faux-lefty gaggle of organic tofu also-rans that they are….
32 “I reserve special disdain for the Lib Dems. As does every right-thinking individual who truly knows their politics.”
I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship….
26-Tom Harris “Is the stainless reputation of Italian politicians down to their use of PR?”
No, the stainful reputation of Italian politicians is because of their abandonment of PR.
As you should well know the move away (in fits and bursts) from pure PR in Italy started because of the assorted scandals of the early 1990s. A time when they had a notoriously pure version of PR.
34. Patrick
I think that you are being too soft on them! Would you like to see my list of adjectives for the Lib Dem Party?
Disclosure note:
Stuart Dickson has been soundly beaten by Lib Dems in 3 council elections (one weel-kent Highland councillor described himself on the ballot paper as “Independent Liberal Democrat” - I kid you not).
In his only other appearance on a ballot paper (a council by-election), Stuart Dickson was soundly beaten by the Labour candidate.
Stuart Dickson has, however, NEVER been beaten by a Conservative candidate!
In fact, when I first stood (I think I was only 22) I beat a very well-established Tory councillor (a Deputy Lord Lieutenant no less), to everybodys’ general amazement, including mine.
36. PR is good, pure PR is bad, I know it’s early but…
A friend of a friend is standing as an independent for the next election.
His first observations on life as a candidate involved swear words coupled with “LibDems.”
35. Aha! So we are still on for the ristorante…
As I said last night, not one person will mention this to me on the doorstep this week and I’m willing to bet it’s not the hot topic in the George and Dragon tonight. You see, the only people who understand or care about any of this have already decided who they are voting for.
37. Correction
Actually, now I come to think of it, the 2nd time I stood my vanquisher called himself “Independent”, but he was pretty cosy with the Lib Dems in the council chamber. So, the list of candidates who have whopped me at the ballot box stands at:
1. Independent Liberal Democrat
2. Independent
3. Liberal Democrat (that was my closest 2nd place!)
4. Labour
There will not be a No.5!!
Why would we need a referendum on AV surely it is just a tidying up of the existing system.
If the AV system is so good why do we only get a for or against vote in a referendum
41. That may be the case on the doorstep, but that’s not the point.
The events of last night have clarified the Politics at Westminster. Clegg is no longer able to convincingly show Cameron a bit of ankle.
And Brown just knows that Clegg’s one of his dangleberries and can be safely ignored as lobby fodder.
Clegg was simply outmanoeuvred last night and gave away any bargaining chips he might have had whilst allowing his party to be squeezed by the Tories. And he doesn’t even want AV. Plank.
People who have whopped me in internal Scottish National Party contests include:
- Angus Brendan MacNeil (now the MP for Na h-Eileanan an Iar)
- John Mason (now the MP for Glasgow East)
So, upon reflection, I have been whopped by some of the brightest stars in Scottish politics. My honour remains intact.
33 - at the risk of annoying swivel eyed English tories for Nick Pamler worldwide on PB.com perhaps everyone needs reminding how when Scotland was ruled by Tory Ministers without even approaching a real mandate amongst Scottish voters in the years to 1997 the SNP refused to join the Scottish Constitutional Convention (supported by Labour, Lib Dems, the Greens, STUC, the Universities, all the Scottish Churches and local authorities) and campaign together with everyone else for a Scottish Parliament.
So when we now see the Budget of SNP minority government put through by Tory MSPs for the third year in a row some people suspect that there is really something to this Tartan Tory.
Nice to see that the reason Stuart goes ‘unfocused’ on the Lib Dems is because we have beaten him
46. Lothian - “Nice to see that the reason Stuart goes ‘unfocused’ on the Lib Dems is because we have beaten him.”
I thought you’d like that!!
Consider it my Valentine’s gift to the PB community. Love is all around folks. Love is all around.
(I’ll be forced into watching that bloody Hugh Grant film again.)
Gordon Brown is pursuing AV for different objectives. He is trying to find a cause that appeals to a component part of his electoral coalition. The left-wing intelligentsia and the bien pensant are very concerned about electoral reform, so by offering a form of it, he is attempting to bolster their support. It’s a pretty smart move in my opinion.
The Lib Dems making idiots of themselves is just a bonus.
Oh dear. David Mundell is for the chop then.
‘Cameron: Salmond takes Scots for fools’
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/cameron-salmond-takes-scots-for-fools-1.1005322
Only “two nations” Mr Cameron? Err… that’ll go down very well west of Offa’s Dyke.
However, it is very, very refreshing to see such a senior English politician referring to England as a “nation”. This is actually a lot rarer than you’d at first imagine. A sign of the times.
Morning all and I agree with those who suggest that by supporting Labour on the AV vote, the LibDems have opened themselves to the Vote Yellow Get Brown narrative. What effect it will have in the Lab-LibDem and LibDem-Con marginals I know not.
Others have briefly mentioned the difference between LibDem voters and its elected representatives. This is very obvious in Scotland where with the exception of Inverness and the Dunfermline by-election, the LibDem success in the past 20 years has been achieved by them drinking from the pool of Tory voters.
Gordon, W Aberdeen, S Aberdeen, NE Fife, Argyll, Edinburgh W, Roxburgh, Glasgow N, E Dunbartonshire, S Edinburgh are all constituencies where the Scottish LibDems have either captured Tory seats since 1987 or risen to challenge Labour by squeezing the Tory vote.
If the LibDems continue to be seen as Labour’s lapdog in Scotland, surely these are the seats in which it they will see votes go at the GE? As with England, the elected LibDem MPs for the Scottish seats out with the Highlands seem to follow the same anti-Tory agenda as their pals south of the border.
Should we be terribly surprised? When people like Ming Campbell associate more with John Smith, Donald Dewar and dare I say James Gordon Brown rather than Malcolm Rifkind and George Younger, it is perhaps not surprising.
I have long expressed the view on PB that in Scotland, the LibDem high point will have proved to be the 2005 GE but we have now at most around 15 weeks to wait and possibly several less.
I might add it is also the case that the SNP’s elected representatives pre 2007 were primarily left of centre Labour leaning whereas those whom they respresented tended also to be ex Tory voters.
48. antifrank - “It’s a pretty smart move in my opinion. The Lib Dems making idiots of themselves is just a bonus.”
Excellent analysis antifrank (as usual).
This is the nearest thing to a “masterstroke” we have seen from Brown. Clegg has to be very, very careful how he handles this one: it has put him on “the back foot”.
What are the LibDems for?
No really. What are they for? What do they stand for? What are their values and beliefs? If, God forbid, they ever formed an administration what would it seek to do? Does anyone know? Do they even know themselves? Ask a campaigner in Devon and you’d get a very different answer to the same questions as you’d get from one in Scotland, or Richmond. They try to be all things to all men and end up being little more than some nebulous pottage of confusions.
Apart from Clegg, Cable and Huhne can anyone think of a single LibDem? There’s that rentboy one whose name I can’t remember and the vaguely pretty short girl who seems quite cheerful on QT sometimes – but again I can’t remember her name. Oh yes – there’s Lembit Opik and his love life. Oh – and now I remember her name too – Sarah Teather. And Mark Oaten was the unmentionable one wasn’t he? See I can name 6 of them! I bet that’s two or three more than most people could do. Wahay! Not.
The only thing I can really think of as a LibDem policy is PR. And now they’ve voted against it. Eh? Que passa hombre?
Oh – ‘Savage Cuts’. That’s another one, n’est ce pas?
37 For completeness I might add that on the 2 occasions I sought the support of the electorate in what is now Glasgow East, I was only beaten by the successful Labour candidate. I beat and thrashed the SNP and LibDems respectively.
53. Easterross - “I beat and thrashed the SNP and LibDems respectively.”
Jolly good show old chap!
It almost makes me want to break out into a verse of ‘Land of Hope and Glory’.
The Beeb has peed off peeps in Bristol about Kraft lying over factory closure there.
Got to be bad news for Labour down there.
54 Stuart was it in Argyll and Bute that you stood for election?
51 Stuart Dickson
Morning Stuart. Thanks for that post on citizenship made interesting reading.
I always read the SNP posts bemused on the Tory bile. Could you explain why Scotland is treated worse than anywhere else.
As a fellow Scot I feel I am missing out on a grievance.
55 IIRC the Cadbury plant near Bristol is in the constituency that Jacob Rees-Mogg is fighting so the closure may well bring closer that happy day that tim has been praying for.
Why is it that the BBC reports any tax in positive terms? “Robin Hood tax” is a propaganda term - it shouldn’t’ be used by them.
‘No sign of panic as Cameron aims to break with the past’
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/no-sign-of-panic-as-cameron-aims-to-break-with-the-past-1.1005279
Lovely to see the ‘Calman Coalition’ crumbling before out very eyes.
If Brown really wanted to make politics fairer and help Labour, he should have offered a referendum on UK membership of the EU.
Now THAT would have created a dividing line and forced the Tories on to the back foot, stole UKIP’s sole raison d’etre and drawn the sting of the B&P.
But he fluffed it, as usual
I agree with reflecting; it’ll froth up a few Tories here (and sadly some good Lib Dems too ref ukpaul) but I can’t see it being a key one on the doorsteps this week.
For the people wanting to claim it shows how close Labour and the LDs are, they were saying that anyway before last night. And conveniently ignoring all the times the Lib Dems have opposed the Government alongside the Conservatives. But that would be inconvenient…
As reported yesterday !
http://biztech.caledonianmercury.com/2010/02/08/gay-porn-blunder-of-government-site-for-children/
The criticisms of Clegg’s leadership made in a number of posts above are correct, in my humble opinion. Vote ‘Clegg, get Brown’ indeed!
The only leader of the LDs who was able to make his party appear unaligned was Charles Kennedy. Clegg clearly hasn’t learnt these lessons. He’s personable and can ask some good questions at PMQs, but as a leader of a major national party, he’s nowhere.
I have voted LD in recent GEs, but with clear evidence now of a tilt towards Labour and a lack of distinctive policies, I’ll be looking elsewhere.
37. Stuart - I too have been beaten by Lib Dems in local elections (but only twice), the same number of Conservatives that I’ve finished behind Conservatives. I am however an equal opportunities loser, having also finished behind Labour several times and the BNP once. I’ve never yet finished behind the Greens but undoubtedly would have done had I defended my seat at the end of my term after the one time I won.
No doubt of all site contributors, John Loony has the most extensive experience of losing.
More dirty tricks afoot.
http://order-order.com/2010/02/10/tories-rattled-by-covert-lib-dem-sniffing/
Lots of venom directed at the Lib Dems I see. But cheer up, the Labour and Tory politicians hate each other, hate the Lib Dems more, but most of all they hate the voters.
Outside of Scotland and NI, the GE is a choice between Brown or Cameron.
I do find it interesting that their attack dog Huhne, heads up the anti-Conservative group within the Lib Dems. But do they have anyone heading up the anti-Labour group? er… um….
What is the range of Lib Dem seats after the GE? 45 to 65 seems about right. If they drop to 45 Clegg will have to go. He said they would shift resources to target Labour seats back in 2007. They have instead kept on spending in the Conservative battles. Huhne is realy running the overall strategy. Follow the money.
61 Ah, but he would have lost a Lisbon referndum wouldn’t he?
Back on the LibDems, I think Clegg has squandered a historic opportunity these last few months. Open goals don’t come along that aften in politics. Labour are bankrupt - financially, morally, intellectually and electorally. Clegg could have lifted the LibDems up a rung or two and escaped the ‘mini-me / also-ran / none-of-the-above’ status they now enjoy. Probably not to supplant Labour but at least to look them in the eye. He could have displayed some policy coherence, remembered that he is an opposition leader and also carved a good niche in the civil liberties space. Voters reward clarity and honesty.
There is clearly no strategic thinking ability at all going in the LibDems senior ranks. And so Clegg can now never look Labour in the eye. In fact when he opens his eyes all he will see is the inside of Gordon’s rectum.
Muppet.
64. John Marston - “The only leader of the LDs who was able to make his party appear unaligned was Charles Kennedy.”
Come May, the Lib Dems are going to bitterly, bitterly regret pole-axing the lad from Lochaber. Especially the ones at Clifton Terrace.
65. David H - “No doubt of all site contributors, John Loony has the most extensive experience of losing.”
So the last shall be first;
and the first last:
for many be called;
but few chosen.
70 Stuart
for once I whole-heartedly agree !
So many anti Lib Dem comments again.
Kind of gives away who you are most afraid of…..
Maybe this site should be renamed Political Bedwetting.
73: “Political Bedwetting”? or “Partisan Bile”.
Anyway, I have always rated AV above FPTP, but STV above AV. That’s an order of preference - a concept that is beyond anyone who cannot count above two.
73 We are more concerned about the nervous breakdown many PB LibDems are going to suffer post GE when they find out that the electorate doesn’t agree with their “brand” of political thinking. The more astute and cerebral LibDems like Yellow Submarine and URW realise they are in for a drubbing in the same way that similar minded Labour supporters like Southern Observer realise the game is up for Brown and chums.
For seant et al the ft reports that some labour ministers are worried they will soon be asked to help fund a greek bailout
so Mr Clegg what distracted tou from a referendum on that Lisbon Treaty?
Why are you soo keen on backing the unelected EU?
Why did you back the unelectable Gordon Brown?
Lib dems = Labour lite.
National strike in Greece today. It just gets worse and worse. Clearly they followed the Gordon Brown model for economic recovery
The Welsh nation is united (for once):
‘AMs call on Welsh Secretary to take plans for law-making vote forward’
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2010/02/10/ams-call-on-welsh-secretary-to-take-plans-for-law-making-vote-forward-91466-25800867/
73 Actually it’s very much in Dave’s interest for the LibDems to do well. Their voters swim in the same pool as Labour. If Clegg could lure lefty voters across it would be too Labour’s detriment and lower the bar on Dave getting his majority. NPMP, for example, has only a 2,300 lead but there were 8,000 LibDem votes in Broxtowe last time. The more Labour leaks to the LibDems the easier it will be for Nick to lose.
What we’re seeing now is the Tories stuck on 40% but both Labour and LibDems doing themselves strategic damage. The trend of narrowing Tory leads seems to have stopped and we’re back on 40 / 30 /20. These sort of displays will again put pressure on the lefty polling. The UKPR average will head back to 41 / 29 / 19.
Dave must be a happy camper after the AV vote.
the death toll in Haiti now 250,000 and rising. Now worse than the 2004 psunami
cleg - large swift fly the female of which sucks blood of various animals.
clegg, horse fly, horsefly.
gadfly - any of various large flies that annoy livestock.
80 - looks like the combined Lab/LD vote has dropped by about 10% since 2005, with the Tories taking about 7 percentage points and the other 3 percentage points going to BNP/UKIP/Green.
73 Frightened of the Lib Dems? ‘Beware the righteous wrath of the sandal-wielding beardies’ it says in the book of Peterski Chapter 8 verse 3.
Cam jibe at Alex’s ‘fantasy’
http://www.thesun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2847420/David-Cameron-jibe-at-Alex-Salmond-fantasy.html
If Alex Salmond lives perpetually in an episode of Braveheart, which film, tv series or novel does David Cameron perpetually live in?
The Pretender?
25
What does Clegg get out of this?
Movement.
Movement forward or sideways; it doesn’t matter.
Just a rag to wave in front of his voters “Look! I got something!”
Reminder to those interested: Jerez test (first of two) starts today. I’ll be watching closely to see if a theory I read online proves too, which could be useful for the season.
Merde. Just read wet weather will be expected for the entire test. *sighs* May have to do just 1 test post on pb2 at the end of February.
Mark Oaten is my favourite Lib Dem MP. His inner morass of self-hatred and moral decrepitude allied to an exterior of supreme sanctimony and pomposity sums up the party perfectly.
81
Is it Gordon Brown’s fault? I’m sure you’ll find a way to blame him, you always do.
I’ve just seen Simon Weston on the TV state that when he suffered his terrible injuries in the Falkland’s campaign he received no compensation.
I can’t believe the wonderful patriotic Tory government of that time could have treated out service personnel so badly, I do hope that will be remedied.
52 Patrick, Good Question, Sadly there is no answer.
And what about the policy Cameron will introduce of no Scottish MP votes on English issues. That is another ‘fair votes’ measure but it will stop Labour interfering in Education and and many other issues for a generation
88. peterski - “… inner morass of self-hatred and moral decrepitude allied to an exterior of supreme sanctimony and pomposity sums up the party perfectly.”
The Lib Dems to a tee.
What is it about characters like Chris Huhne,Simon Hughes and Nick Clegg that make all right-thinking peoples’ skin crawl?
It takes a special kind of person to become a Lib Dem.
88. ‘I assume i’ll have to watch Coronation Street and eat McDonalds’
Sorry Mark, is that supposed to be a bad thing?
89 …but he did at least get extensive and excellent medical care in both army and civilian hospitals.
Compare and contrast with the virtual ‘join the A&E queue’ approach to soldiers injured in Iraq / Afghanistan. One of the worst breaches of the military covenant under this government has been their treatment of the wounded. It should not take Jeremy Clarkson and Help for Heroes to get the government to deliver the needed level of surgery and rehab.
And remind me how much is the compensation they get now compared to the MoD secretaries with RSI?
Tip of the day : Lib Dem LOSE Harrogate and Knaresborough on a big swing.
Inexplicably popular incumbent ‘former headteacher’ Phil Willis is standing down.
Looks like Greece is following a typically Brownite path to “cut” their deficit
By forcing the black market into the open, they increase the official GDP figure, and hey presto the deficit is lower as a percentage of GDP. Cashback!
Watch out for Brown announcing changes in the way both the GDP is measured, and him framing his “law” to cut the deficit in half in term if ratio to GDP rather than real terms. It’s not like he hasn’t got form on this
93 Peterski, well done, you are therefore saying that all those people who vote for them in their constituencies are not right thinking people. Come on. However they are all clearly “special”!!
Of much more importance, a batch of elections tomorrow should test out public reaction to last nights debate. Judging from the postings on this site we can expect a reaction that should benefit the Conservatives.
85 Stuart
I suggest the ” The ride to Melrose” by W Scott. I believe Melrose has strong connections with King David of Scotland.
I find it astonishing, having looked at an earlier thread last night, that under AV the 1997 election would have left the Tories with a mere 70 seats and Labour c450 and LDs c110 - on vote shares of about 43/30/20 ish.
How on earth can this be seen as “fair(er) votes”?
No surprise that Brown wants AV brought in. Flagrant gerrymandering.
Why doesn’t he just make the Tory Party a proscribed organisation, given how dangerous he thinks they are, as he tells us on a daily basis…
‘A vote for none of the above’
- A vote for common nonsense … (clockwise from top left) Brown, Bates, Salmond and Cameron
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/papercolumnists/billleckie/2845395/Bill-Leckie-column.html
Very revealing that the Scottish Sun chose to represent the Lib Dems with a picture of an obscure Welsh AM. Not surprising. Bates probably has a higher profile than any Scottish Lib Dem politicians at the moment. That ought to scare the bejeesus out of the wallies at Clifton Terrace.
Where on earth is Tavish Scott? He has a lower media profile than any senior Scottish politician I can think of. Crikey, many SNP, Labour and Tory backbench MSPs have a media profile 10 times higher than Scott. What on earth are they playing at? Are they ashamed of him or something? Perhaps it is him that is ashamed of them?
95
89 …but he did at least get extensive and excellent medical care in both army and civilian hospitals.
Hmmm makes you wonder why the Tories then decided to close most of the Military Hospitals down doesn’t it?
And remind me how much is the compensation they get now compared to the MoD secretaries with RSI?
I’m not defending the present governments treatment, I’m sure they could do more, but the Tories were no better.
Why will I vote Lib Dem (and am more resolved so to do with every nastiness that I read directed at them)? I have a Lib Dem MP who has proved helpful, and defied Clegg over the referendum; the Tory opponent is an especially unhelpful councillor.
I may have to listen to the contempt and malice aimed at me by Tory and Labour politicians, but I don’t, yet, have to vote for them.
But yes, I fully expect the Lib Dems (and Labour) to be permanently damaged by the election. Whether the country will be happy with a generation of unshiftable Tory rule is another matter - I shall not be here.
OT Is Guido stirring it up ?
guidofawkes We get @lazyhyena to explain all the complicated bits in Cosmo to us @Rowenna_Davis did I ever forward you the Draper/Macintyre emails re U?
99. Alanbrooke - ”The ride to Melrose” by W Scott
How apt!
Bookies’ best prices - Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (incumbent: Michael Moore MP, Deputy Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats; Lib Dem maj over Con = 5,901)
Con 10/11 (Victor Chandler)
LD 10/11 (William Hill)
SNP 35/1 (Bet365)
Lab 125/1 (Bet365)
I see Dave’s de-toxification squad had to be activated.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7021241.ece
‘A lister in trouble! Quick the BatPhone’.
Harrogate and Knaresborough is ,on the face of it,one of the Lib Dems strongest seats….yet
Thanks to boundary changes there is an avalanche of Tory votes from the abolished seat of ‘Vale of York’ ready to tip over into Harrogate and Knaresborough to bury the Lib Dems.
Shame.
The stout Yeomen and sturdy-bottomed horsey ladies of the Vale of York have little truck with Lib Demmery.
Just about the only good thing about them.
96. peterski - “Inexplicably popular incumbent ‘former headteacher’ Phil Willis is standing down.”
I strongly suspect we will see a similar Lib Dem collapse in their supposedly “safe” seat of Edinburgh West. When I was a kid growing up in Edinburgh, the western side of the city was the strongest bastion of Toryism (not the southern side, where the Tories are strongest nowadays).
I fully expect the Lib Dem majority of 13,600 to collapse to below 3,000 now that John Barrett is retiring (he too was “inexplicably popular”), turning Edinburgh West into a LD/Con marginal.
Ladbrokes’ CON price of 7/1 is probably about right just now, but if the Scottish Lib Dems do not turn the corner in the next 4 weeks, and if the Tories start to tick up in Scotland (not entirely impossible), then that 7/1 will start to look like value.
69 - sooo right.
the Libs were once described to me as group desperate to get PR simply so that they could be in power.
They should bear in mind that PR in Italy delivered neither spanking clean politics, nor politicians - if anything the grubby backroom deals and orruption increased, a means to the end of staying in power.
FPTP may not be the best, but our political forefathers generally thought things through a lot more diligently than the current crop of short-termists.
This AV projection of the 2005 election - how did they collect their data? I didn’t tell anyone what my 2nd 3rd 4th preferences would have been, so I’m puzzled as to how they can project an AV result
96. Indeed. I think it’s been fairly clear for a while, considering the boundary changes, the insufferable incumbent departing, and the Conservative resurgence locally, that Harrogate and Knaresborough could cause the Lib Dems more than a few worries. If only it could spill over into Leeds North West!
97. Inside the Euro, Greece will become a Police State. http://tinyurl.com/yl4ybb8
Looks like Dave’s Ninjas have struck.
http://twitter.com/paulwaugh/statuses/8894818577
103 Well the trouble with democracy across much of the western world is that voters have discovered they can choose jam today and pay for it tomorrow (leftyism).
Unfortunately when tomorrow comes and the debts need servicing they are outraged. Babies.
The Tories are something akin to nurse saying ‘no you can’t have a biscuit - wait til teatime’.
To the childlike lefty mindset that is oppression and savagery and brutal and mean and nasty - and the teddy gets flung in the corner. To anyone who accepts the precept of living within your means it sounds like simple common sense.
93 - ‘It takes a special kind of person to become a Lib Dem.’
Someone who likes to play politics but thinks of themselves as too nice to be Tory and too posh to be Labour?
Seems to me Lab and the LDs have managed to shoot themselves in the foot with the same gun. Excellent, especially if it increases the chances of the voters disposing of the pair of LD lightweights who represent LB Sutton.
Yes a huge mistake to back Labour on AV. In fact completely shameful. We were being offered more than this in 1917 when at least 211 seats would have been filled by STV with the rest AV.
Most AV modelling in the last three general elections has shown that it would add to the pro-Labour bias already apparent under FPTP.
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/downloads/AVReportweb.pdf
Antifrank at 48 I think got it right on both Gordon Brown’s motives and the pleasure of seeing Lib Dems at a loss.
I’m not sure it was intended to put Clegg on the spot - doubt Gordon really thought the Lib Dems would support an electoral system they disagree with in such numbers - but it did deliver him an unexpected gift in that he now knows that he could probably count on their support in unlikely event of Labour being biggest party for very little cost.
I can’t believe that anyone here thinks that the broader electorate will be influenced one way or the other by this vote:
it’s the ultimate Westminster issue. Say you’re the Tory challenging Norman Lamb. Do you rally put out a leaflet saying: “Don’t vote for Lamb - in an amendment in Feburary, he voted with Labour to change the voting system”? People know the LibDems want a change in the voting system - it’s one of the few things they do know about LibDem policy.
It’s not that complicated. Some of us are keen on electoral reform anyway; others see it as an argument to tilt the LibDems onto our side if the resullt is close. LibDem MPs (many of whom who were genuinely excited in the lobbies last night) see it as a long-overdue shifting in the electoral reform logjam. It’s not that they credit most Labour MPs with a damascene conversion, just that they like the outcome.
Thanks to JohnLoony for the other Communist MPs - I’d never heard of John Malone but he seems to have been a colourful character:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cecil_Malone
Good Morning Burnley FC Champions League Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. May I plead for all yellow peril bashers on PB to keep up the fine work. Maintaining this narrative will help to drive the value of Lib Dem stock down and thus ensure those of us with more discerning political betting acumen to clean up.
Thanking you all in advance for your contributions to Mrs Jack W’s post May 6th Shoe Fund !!
115
I strongly object to the denigration of Dorset in this piece.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/02/joanne-cash-that-meeting-in-full.html
Localism! don’t yer just love it.
So much to look forward to.
Just catching up on threads and I can’t believe how dumb Clegg has been - he has aligned himself with the biggest loser in history, Vote Yellow Get Brown is now confirmed and he’s gained zero credibility points.
As someone mentioned up thread, he’s taken off all his clothes and everyone laughed.
Most people think this was a pathetic bit of election-rigging by Gordon and Clegg said I’ll have some of that please. FFS, the LDs have had their greatest chance to become the second party and what do they do…
111 - my question as well. AV projections seem to be based on the FPTP polling, seem to assume that Lib/Lab voters will place those parties as first and second choices and that there are no other parties.
I think the Euro results (party of preference) could provide a more interesting picture - but I have not a clue how even to begin to work it out.
Did the mayor of Doncaster not get elected on some form of AV and cleaned up on second preference votes? What did happen there?
110
But surely the backroom deals would be what the Lib/Dems want?
“A new form of Politics” - consensual, with parties ******* together - everybody gets a dose of the drips
114 Coldstone, you need to be on your toes today, lest tim steals your crown as the King of Cut’n'Paste.
Easterross @ 75
I think you will find the chaps name is Southam Observer, though I can understand why a cousin from North of the Border might say Southern.
124 Imagine the look on the faces of Clegg and Gordon if AV brought in a load of BNP/UKIP/Greenies
Why are we all so up in arms about some chocolate factory workers, whose skills are unsurprisingly to be found cheaper elsewhere, yet there is no mention of the disastrous news that GSK is to close its Harlow North and Tunbridge Wells facilities (and one in Poland!), with the loss of a larger number of research jobs, in the high-tech sector which we’re supposedly good at?
Personally I think the GSK news is extremely bad for the country, the chocolate factory news is only really bad for those involved personally.
75
SOUTHAM observer
Southam is a town in Warwickshire…
Grrrr
‘79.The Welsh nation is united (for once):
Shouldn’t that read the Welsh politicians are united for once?
‘AMs call on Welsh Secretary to take plans for law-making vote forward’
… a unanimous National Assembly voted to request a referendum on further law-making powers.’
They are right in terms of asking for a referendum, but the second question on the ballot paper should be asking the Welsh electorate if they actually still want a Welsh assembly.
Just looks like politicians in their usual bubble trying to keep their jobs on easystreet,feedback from friends living in Cardiff is the assembly is regarded as a joke.
Morning all.
I think PBers are getting a bit over-excited about this. Voting ‘reform’ is of no interest to the electorate as a whole, except for a handful of Labour Guardianistas and LibDem enthusiasts whose votes are already in the bag for their respective parties. The argument that the LibDems have sold their soul won’t mean anything on the doorstep; no-one whose vote is up for grabs is in the least bit interested.
The argument that Brown is promoting AV as a cynical ploy will I think have a bit more resonance, but the election will be decided on other issues.
127 I stand corrected and indeed recall him giving someone else a ticking off for making the same mistake. So SO when you read this later, humble apologies.
Off to work so TTFN.
120 NPMP. Self serving bollocks. This looks grubby and cynical from Gordo and stupid, grubby and self serving from Dangleberry. You will not lose votes specifically because of it but it will contribute to an already large amorphous body of negtive perceptions about Brown / Labour and do you no good at the polls.
126
You wait till I’ve had my coffee.
Grice on AV.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/andrew-grice/andrew-grice-browns-insurance-against-defeat-1894553.html
120 NPMP
I think you’re wrong. Looking at the poll on people’s cycnical view of why we had the vote ( 70% said politicians looking after their own interest ) I think LD s have lost a lot of their moral high ground.
I could have accepted electoral reform in 1997 becuase the winning party had a clear mandate to do so. Today this proposal just offends my sense of fair-play .
While I have voted LD tactically in the past I would sooner vote SNP ( and I live in England ) than lend them my vote again.
132, 120 - Good lord, I find myself agreeing with Nick P!
95 - Yes it is fortuitous that the Falklands War took place before the Tories had had a chance to run down the health service, isn’t it? I wonder how things would have been if it had taken place 10 years later.
123.
Clegg advocated a referendum on ‘The EU In? OR Out?’ at the time of Lisbon’s passing, as a cover for his abandonment of his party’s election promise to hold a referendum on the Constitution.
There is now Carswell’s Bill coming up in the Commons proposing exactly Clegg’s Policy. What will Clegg do about that? Ahem.
The AV proposal will not see the light of day, or is most unlikely to. What’s interesting is that Brown and Clegg are now running scared from PR. They had 33% of the vote between them in 2009 in the EP, coming third and fourth. Perhaps they have seen the writing on the wall PR-wise. They would both be wiped. This AV thing is a fig leaf to hide their embarrassment at climbing down over PR.
132 POTY Richard N. You may have written a load of twaddle yesterday but that post is spot on the (betting) money.
120, you don’t think the electorate will care that you’re trying to gerrymander the electoral system? Well, at least Labour’s contempt for the electorate is consistent.
120. How stupid do you think the voters are, Nick?
22&23. Bunco & patrick , what a pair of Sad gits you two are. Think you need to get out more rather than squeezing your spots in front of the mirror and thinking you are clever. **ss*** describes you perfectly.
137 Southam - ‘Run down the health service’ - please provide evidence for this astonishing statement.
132 - You are absolutely right. And what’s more, why on earth would the Tores want to push this? I am not sure they want to be spending their time defending a voting system that essentially disenfranchises great swathes of the country when they could be doing a lot of other more productive things.
139 Jack - Twaddle? Moi? Whatever can you mean?
142 - Good Morning MalcombG, a fine day is it not..?
120. If Boss Hogg, I mean Brown was so keen on AV, why did he wait so long to consider it?
AV is not a solution to a real problem of the lack of integrity, over MPs’ expenses, taxes, pensions and the renumeration. In a crude way Brown is trying to pretend that a new voting system is a cure for MPs’ excesses, yet it is hard to be convinced that the vote on AV is one of principle when it is passed by so many whose expenses and recent behaviour suggests that they are devoid of that quality.
But the government has still to show how it has made the postal voting systen fairer and safer after that Birmingham judgement.
On topic, I believe Mike has called this one right. It’s about creating dividing lines and one of the biggest is potentially between the Lib Dem activists and voters. How making that clearer to the electorate is meant to help Brown, I don’t know.
But Nick’s also right that it’s very much a politico argument. The reasons why it wasn’t covered on 5Live is (a) it’s unlikely to become law anyway and (b) it’s an incredibly boring topic to most people. For goodness sake, it even turns off a sizable number of peebees and we’re far more interested in politics and its mechanisms than most.
So why bother? Partly so Brown can do his ‘Tories holding back progress’ thing and partly as a marker in case Labour does lose, in which case the Tories would then have to repeal the act. I do think the Lib Dems have sold themselves cheaply. As far as I’m aware, there wasn’t even a commitment from the current Labour leadership to campaign for a Yes vote? Jack Straw said he was in favour but I think that was a personal rather than Labour view?
(132 What Richard Nabavi said.)
F1:
Started to rain at Jerez. Remainds to be seen how useful the times will be, if at all. However, will do the teams some good to get a little wet weather racing done.
128 - I really think that it might.
145 POTY Richard N. It’s a condition invariably attached to the bright stars of PB. The award is not called POTY for nothing !!
122: coldstone, don’t you think it’s a big sad that you gather joy from the expection of misbehaving tories?
144, because there are 2 big leftwing parties and 1 big rightwing party. AV let’s the lefties have a circle jerk and back each other, whereas rightwing voters get a single horse to back and will be, er, disenfranchised.
But you’re right. The notion the Labour and Lib Dem parties are backing AV has nothing to do with the fact it would enhance their own parties’ prospects and damage those of the Tories. It’s alllll about fairness. Honestly.
Oh joy - everyone’s favourite chippy nit, malcolmg.
Nick Palmer at 120 has got it spot on. It’s not that complicated.
AV is a step towards STV (same 1 2 3 preference voting system) and means every MP has to get over 50% of votes so why would LibDems NOT vote for this? It is a step forward if it ever comes to pass.
Politically it may show DC to be for the (tainted) status quo and against change. But no big deal. Calm down everyone.
falling crime rate - more prosaic than the result of new laws, asbos etc?
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20100210/tuk-uk-britain-burglars-fa6b408.html
One advantage to Brown and Clegg of AV is that it would make voting fraud harder to explain in simple terms.
Bureaucracies prefer opaque systems that are hard for the public to understand, and which they can manipulate from behind the scenes.
“The reasons why it wasn’t covered on 5Live”
It wasn’t even covered on radio 4.
So, we just had a vote on something that will never happen and no one is interested in. Well done Gordon, that’s leadership.
John F at 131.
Just take a look at the YouGov welsh poll findings.
Q. Which institution has most influence over how Wales is governed?
Westminster 55%, Assembly 22%
Q. Which institution should have most influence over how Wales is governed?
Westminster 27%, Assembly 55%
Also an large and interesting gap between trust in Westminster politicians and Assembly politicians.
It’s on YouGov’s webpage if you want to look. Archives for november.
“so why would LibDems NOT vote for this?”
Because it makes the “next” step less likely for a start. You now have a plausible argument that “we’ve changed the system once, lets have it bed down, give it a chance etc etc.”
Plus, they’ve said they don’t like it, so one has to ask why you vote for e something you don’t like?
Hell, it’s irrelevant anyway. No one is interested, and it’s not going to happen.
155. A man who has made it in the world unlike us losers - as shown by his personalised number plate and stone cladding.
Cameron does something for the meat eaters - no Euro for me ever…
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/
143 - Between 1979 and 1997 the number of people on NHS waiting lists went up by more than 400,000. If that is not runnig down I do not know what is. In 1997 tens of thousands of people were waiting more than six months for treatment from the NHS.
There is only one voting change that is needed and that is to bring Britain back from the status of a banana republic, or rather a status which would ‘disgrace a banana republic’, as regards its current voting practices.
The AV red herring is a good blind to take peoples’ minds off postal voting fraud and ballot box operations.
The Irish Referendum was a great example of the respect that the EU holds for all democracy, and control of ballot boxes. LINK to YOUTUBE of the ‘count’ at Cork City Hall.
Totally agree with Nick, Richard and Augustus. And after years of telling Lib Dem PPCs and councillors that banging on incessantly about electoral reform just sends people to sleep rather than changing votes either way, it’s reassuring to find out from today’s thread that desperately tedious PR OCD isn’t confined to one party.
140 - Don’t the electorate get a referendum on this?
162. He needs to do more - ruling out financial aid for Greece and challenging Brown to do likewise would be a start.
Straying off topic at the risk of OGH’s wrath (has he actually banned tim??):
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/09/lord-ashcroft-conservatives-tax
Another Westminster story, but the knots the Tories have tied themselves into over this are quite funny. Whether it’s Europe, grammar schools, taking on constituency dinosaurs, or this, Cameron’s default solution seems to be to extend the story over a period while the issue is inconclusively argued out behind the scenes. I’m not exactly an impartial observer, but if I were a Tory I’d be worried by that trait.
85, Stuart, Cameron seems to have lost the plot, her makes a bigger cod of himself by the day. I would not have believed it but am beginning to think that Brown could beat this idiot , he does not seem to have a clue about anything.
167 I wonder if Greece will be mentioned at PMQs?
How’s Lord Paul doing, Nick?
120. NPMP, I agree voting reform will not usually set the electorate alight by any means. However, a couple of points are important;
1. If the Tories can get a narrative going that Brown and Labour are trying to gerrymander the coming general election with Lib-Dem connivance, that could be toxic for Labour and the Lib-Dems.
2. Perhaps more importantly, wavering Conservative voters, particularly on the UKIP side can see the very future of the Tory Party being challenged. Brown and Clegg have just raied the stakes of this general election BIG TIME. A disgruntled Conservative voter might have stayed at home and voted UKIP if they thought their decision only meant another term of Brown - Now it seems it might not just be another term of Brown, but Brown and Lib/Lab FOREVER. This must surely be a call to arms for all Conservative inclined voters to come back to the party in order to stave off the neverending Lib-Lab nightmare?
156 If AV was adopted the chances of STV being introduced in HoC are set back decades. As David says it would be “we’ve changed the system already, why change again, let it bed down”.
Would the Lib Dems support vote for Yes or No in an AV referendum?
168. pathetic
168. Yes when you line up those problems vs bankrupting the country, stealing our pensions, colluding to bring in millions of Labour voting immigrants, starting 2 wars etc etc then the Cons have the bigger headache.
163 Southam - And the reasons for that? And the spending figures?
You are starting from your anti-Thatcher prejudice and working backwards to the conclusion.
173: Yes of course…
165 Amazing how people are discussing the thread topic…….
Oh dear - I see from the hysteria of recent threads herd seems to have been exposed to the AV virus and caught CJD (Circle Jerk Disorientation).
168 - I get the distinct impression that the Tories are deliberately allowing this story to rumble on for as long as possible. It’s a blind alley for Labour and the Lib Dems, and their hectic pursuit of Lord Ashcroft makes them look trivial when there are so many real problems facing the country.
168 NPMP, as a member of the party who’s leader dithered for weeks on end, whilst he deliberated in response to a question on what kind of biscuit he liked, it might be an idea to keep quiet about others dawdling.
162. Good to hear Cameron would NEVER join the euro, but its hardly a controversial position is it? Not only wouldn’t a government be able to win a referendum to enter the euro, but given the state of our finances thanks to Gord and chums, the euro members wouldn’t want us!
179 Ashcroft is a handy lightning conductor.
146. Simon, Good day to you, it is indeed fine with blue sky and sun shining in God’s country, very pleasant indeed apart from my heavy cold which is a nuisance.
168. what about Mittal and all those donations, and the closure of the steel plant at Redcar, nothing to do with environmental trading permits?
o/t. guido has posted a ‘humerous’ political poster with a message.
http://order-order.com/2010/02/10/best-political-poster-advert/
antifrank @ 179
And then it will turn out that Lord Ashcroft was legit all the time. The story is one for the anoraks, and keeps people from discussing issues that people actually care about.
Hmmm. Strangely, in Groupthink towers, it was a huge win for the Tories, the Lib Dems were useless and Gordon Brown is the living embodiment of Stalin. What were the odds on that?
For once I have to agree with Richard Nabavi. I don’t think that this will have registered with most people. The Lib Dems tack - if it actually arises - will be that they voted with their conscience, that they have always been in favour of electoral reform and that they would have been hypocrites not to want a referendum on ‘PR’ - and that they submitted an amendment for their preferred system and that if Brown and Cameron want to play their games, let them.
I think that sometimes, people who spend an awful lot of time thinking about politics get into the subtleties of who will discriminate on the grounds of this or that move too much and fail to see the game as it really is. ‘Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar’ as Freud said.
178 - Indeed. It’s normally lost by about comment 32 on average!
It isn’t the fact they’re discussing it, David. It’s the electoral importance some people are bizarrely ascribing to it.
148 David H
I think part of the fallout from this has not yet hit the deck. Brown has been pretty clever in outsmarting Clegg post GE.
I have been wondering why the LDs weren’t breathing down Labour’s neck on the share of the national vote. All the critcisms that Cameron should be much further ahead also apply to Clegg; by comparison the LDs were 2.2% behind Labor in 1983 but are 10% behind today. It appears to me that the main reason is they are great on tactics but have zero strategy.
If Clegg had done something similar to Kennedy he would have kept pushing at the weaker of the two main parties to consolidate votes from disillusioned supporters. Really Clegg should be at or around the same level of support as Labour given; the economy, unpopular PM, clapped out government, active hosility to Tories from many ex Lab voters. He isn’t.
If he had kept the momentum he had from May 2009 he would now be chasing Labour to the line and in a situation to take the Centre Left Position in UK politics permanently, as Labour descend into a period of internal division. In some respects this is a re-run of 1981/2 when Labour were seriously worried the Alliance would replace them.
Clegg however has missed his opportunity.
If there is a HP he goes into Govt. with Brown still PM. The markets will create an economic crisis and he is associated with it. His one hope is to change the electoral law asap but if his vote goes in to meltdown what has he gained.
If the Tories win he still doesn’t get a say at government but his position to target Labour is not credible. Labour will still seek to be the natural party opposed to the Tories and will push the LDs aside and again he’s left with nothing.
Labour have cleverly boxed Clegg in and stopped him from stealing their clothes if they lose the next election.
156. David, a pleasant good morning to you too.
170 - The Tories are all for any reform of the political system as long as it does not affect them. David Cameron has bravely led the way on this and will continue to do so. How anyone can think he is a complete hypocrite is beyond me.
163, Cue the village idiot runnynose adding his usual zero value.
189:The Lib Dems tack - if it actually arises - will be that they voted with their conscience, that they have always been in favour of electoral reform and that they would have been hypocrites not to want a referendum on ‘PR’
AV is not PR!!!!
I’ll repeat it again as it always happens… AV is not PR!!!
191. Yes perhaps the even itself was not important but the post event position.
Blue team now have all the vote Yellow get Brown material they need for the GE.
Naive stuff from Clegg - he has gained ZERO from this event.
168, you mean like on Lisbon?
193, Labour are all for reforms if it advantages them, whether it increases fraud or not, like postal voting, is irrelevant.
If 80 people on here of all political persuasions are in agreement re Clegg and AV then how on earth did the Squibs not see this as an outcome?
178 - My anti-Thatcher prejudice is based entirely on my experiences and observations of the 80s and 90s. If Mrs T had spent the North Sea oil and privatisation money on education, the NHS and regeneration - instead of unsustainable tax handouts designed to put money in the pockets of Tory voters - then I would think a whole lot better of her.
The Tories should have put their thinking hat on, last night.
They should have tabled an ammendment to the AV vote, that if they wanted this referendum, it had to include a referendum on the EU. It would have put Brown and the Libdems on the spot and forced them to vote it down.
That would have been fun to watch.
“…So, we just had a vote on something that will never happen and no one is interested in. Well done Gordon, that’s leadership.
by David February 10th, 2010 at 9:55 am ….”
But what it has done is make the LD’s look ridiculous when they circulate leaflets like this one.
http://www.thestraightchoice.org/leaflet.php?q=499
This stupid move by Clegg has removed the opportunity to run campaigns in those terms and allowed the Tories to steal it. The tories are now in a position to really hammer the Gordo five more years if you vote yellow theme.
198. For the Lib Dems it’s now all about shoring up the combined left position..sacrifice in a noble cause…
26 John Loony
Good to see you agreeing with me. What prize do I get?
Various Others
Surely we have to come to the conclusion that Clegg is pretty weak and the combined (but contradictory) forces of Huhne, Cable and Hughes are effectively dictating policy to him? Last night was Huhne’s turn.
Maybe thats the way to go. Come on Cameron, Well if they want to spend £80 million on a referendum, lets have that EU in or out one at the same time, may as well if Brown wants a referendum lets have a few on the same day. watch Brown and clegg keel over if he does that.
154
Errr seeing as this site is dominated by posters who are less than sad about misbehaving Labour/Libdems, I’m in good company.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/02/did-cam-airbrush-his-uel-event.html
Surely not.
WHEN is Cameron going to say that he will change the system by “allowing only MPs in English seats voting on English matters”, some matters may be “Welsh and English”, and then both MPs in wales and England will then vote.
This would add another 5%, and would be talked about in the pubs.!!!
151 - It will give everyone a chance to watch Schumie show off his fabulous wet weather driving.
On topic - Having reflected, I concur with those on here that think that the shambolic Clegg effort last night will have a very minor if any influence on the poll numbers but it highlighted why many of us feel that Clegg is utterly useless as a major party leader and is so far behind all of the previous leaders of the Lib Dems (possibly excluding the hopeless old man).
He had an elephant trap put in front of him. An uncovered one with THIS IS AN ELEPHANT TRAP and an arrow pointing at it.
And he walked in.
Fair enough, it’s not a fatal error. The ditch is small. But it is bad politics.
199 SO - As I thought, you have no evidence that she ‘ran down the health service’. Instead you jump to the conclusion that tax reductions were intended to ‘put money in the pockets of Tory voters’ (funny that you don’t apply that argument to Labour handouts, which do that rather more directly).
Actually, the purpose of reducing taxes (i.e. not taking so much money out of peoples’ pockets) was to stimulate economic growth - which it did extremely effectively. This has helped make possible the year-on-year increases in health spending which we have seen from both Labour and Conservative governments over more than two decades.
It would be nice if you considered the possibility that your political opponents do what they think is in the interests of the country as a whole, rather than automatically ascribing dubious motives to them.
204 - Such a referendum is Lib Dem policy, Laurence, and is opposed by Cameron.
209 Sir Norfolk - I thought the LibDems had dropped that policy. Or has it been un-dropped again?
205
Every day he has a go at Cameron,!!!!
“He had an elephant trap put in front of him. An uncovered one with THIS IS AN ELEPHANT TRAP and an arrow pointing at it.
And he walked in”
It’s like Fraser Nelson as leader of the Tories……
208 It would be nice if you considered the possibility that your political opponents do what they think is in the interests of the country as a whole, rather than automatically ascribing dubious motives to them.
Irony is not dead!
Again, the Tories are misreading the importance of this, but that is their problem. I think it is just as likely that this will backfire on the Tories in the long run - serial troughers support no change. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/10/alternative-vote-tories-bonkers
Airbrush Dave, rents crowds, he says it is time for a change, but when he is given the opportunity to show some real leadership on change his party becomes vehement supporters of the status quo and his only idea of electoral reform is to make it easier for the Tories to win an overall majority. Vote Blue, different colour, same old crap.
211
D’yknow I’ve never ever complained or commented on those who ‘av-a-go at Brown/Clegg etc. more power to their elbow.
Are you saying, that I should’nt and neither should anyone else ‘ave-a-go at Cameron, is he to be delcared, ‘Devine’
208 - “It would be nice if you considered the possibility that your political opponents do what they think is in the interests of the country as a whole, rather than automatically ascribing dubious motives to them.”
It would be nice if *everyone* could do that.
AV probably entrenches the LDs at a baseline of 50 seats, whereas on a bad day FPTP could cut them back significantly from that.
If the LDs hit 25% (a realistic target) AV would probably deliver them 100 seats.
Hung Parliaments would be even more likely under AV. So it all makes tactical sense for the LDs to support it.
208 - “It would be nice if you considered the possibility that your political opponents do what they think is in the interests of the country as a whole, rather than automatically ascribing dubious motives to them.”
A good point, and it would be interesting to know what posters here feel are some good things that their opponents have done in government - a genuine question, not needing jokey or sarcastic answers.
O/T Proof that The LD preemptive campaign to protect Kingston Hospital from threatened closure of its maternity and other units is well founded:
http://www.savekingstonhospital.org.uk/?q=node/21
208, 213, 216 - It would be nice if politicians of all stripes more regularly did what they thought was in the interests of the country as a whole, rather than in their own or their party’s interests. Since they far too regularly favour their own interests, they can hardly complain when their motives are doubted.
215 - agree - but sorry to be pedantic - the word is ‘Divine’.
199 But her government significantly increased spending on the NHS and education. James Callaghan’s government was the only government since the war that actually cut real spending on these things.
And, letting people keep a higher proportion of their own earnings is surely a good thing, regardless of which party they vote for.
It would be nice if you considered the possibility that your political opponents do what they think is in the interests of the country as a whole, rather than automatically ascribing dubious motives to them.”
No F*cking chance of that.
“serial troughers support no change.”
That’s wrong though. Even if you subscribe to the notion that the Tories are “serial troughers” they support quite a lot of change to the expenses system and the structure and business of parliament.
In fact, the change they don’t support is arguably the least important when it comes to the expenses issue.
220 Would be a good idea for a twilight zone pb.com thread. Posters must praise their political opponents. Could be fun.
225 - I really don’t like the idea of having to praise any politician. I’d need a scalding hot shower and some bleach afterwards.
225. I think the world would collapse into a black hole when Martin Day posts something nice about Nick Clegg…
218 - Having had the spectre of unemployment and having to pay the bills last year, I would say that the minimum wage is something positive that this government has brought in.
I’m struggling after that though. I would support much of the genuine investment in education and health but the scheme to toss every school building in Britain was the final moment of spendthrift madness which has sullied the whole ‘investment’ programme for me.
222. Indeed Sean, but don’t expect facts to triumph over sentiment in this area.
#142, by malcolmG February 10th, 2010 at 9:45 am
22&23. Bunco & patrick , what a pair of Sad gits you two are. Think you need to get out more rather than squeezing your spots in front of the mirror and thinking you are clever….
As someone who has the pleasure of meeting bunnco I suspect he is a couple-or-so years older than we are. Once fatsteve finalises the next PoliticalBetting p1ss-up in London, maybe you can bring your wonderful car down to London and meet him….
Zit’cha lay’tah’….
227. Perhaps a good election slogan ?
“Clegg : Less useless than Ming “
“In fact, the change they don’t support is arguably the least important when it comes to the expenses issue.”
Hasn’t someone done some research that shows a direct correlation between expenses midemeanours and safeness of seats? So I don’t think that argument holds water.
What was that about a Greek bail out? It’s off the menu again.
http://tinyurl.com/ylkrc26
214 Labour and Lib Dems support this change because they think it would boost their number of MPs. Conservatives oppose it for the same reason.
That’s all that needs to be said about the AV vote.
231 GHF
what about:
Saruman Clegg says vote Mordor
217. And they would probably become the largest party in parliament with about 33.33% of the vote, and gain a majority with 36%…
228 The regeneration of virtually every urban centre in the country is another thing that is overlooked. Quite a remarkable transformation IMO.
In the spirit of praising the opposition, clearly Major’s national lottery helped start the improvement in UK sport. Something built on by Labour.
Are we getting PMQs today? If so, Cameron should ask about Greece, Article 122 of Lisbon Treaty and seek a guarantee from the PM that UK taxpayers will not be bailing out Greek profligacy.
224. David, cannot see how you come to conclusion that Tories want to change expenses. So far they seem to be in collusion with labour to avoid proper changes at all. Impression I get is that they are all trying to limit the changes ( amount they can claim ) as much as possible. They make a few noises now and again but have seen nothing principled from any of them and nothing done by either party on the worst offenders , the flipping etc.
234 - Sean, that thesis only holds true if you believe that Lib Dem voters are more likely to vote Labour than Conservative as a second preference. Recent polling evidence seems to show that on the “forced choice” question the split is, at the very least, even. In a change election such as the upcoming one it is far more likely to magnify the number of Conservative seats than diminish it.
I happen to disagree with AV personally. However, what is being proposedis not legislation for AV, but for a referendum on AV. If the COnservatives had the courage of their convictions (that changes to the voting system are an irrelevance) then they would have no problem winning the referendum argument.
The question I’d like Cameron to answer is that if he wasn’t a homophobic racist who despised public services what attracted him to Margaret Thatcher’s Tory Party in the first place?
Or at least when did his Damascene conversion happen?
237. Jonathan you clearly live in a parallel universe.
“Hasn’t someone done some research that shows a direct correlation between expenses midemeanours and safeness of seats? So I don’t think that argument holds water.”
Correlation is not causation, for a start.
This is an excellent blogpost on European debt and deficit woes for those with the time:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/deconstructing-europe-how-%E2%82%AC20-billion-liquidity-crisis-set-become-%E2%82%AC16-trillion-funding-crisi
241, that’s a pathetic question. It’s “…if he weren’t…”. The element of doubt renders it subjunctive rather than indicative. Honestly.
243 - just a very strange coincidence!
230. Fluffy , then even less excuse for his rudeness, the man is obviously an oaf. Small minded petty parochial tw**, he should travel and see the world beyond London and the South East. It may round his views a bit and broaden his horizon.
Hasn’t someone done some research that shows a direct correlation between expenses midemeanours and safeness of seats? So I don’t think that argument holds water.
by Tabman February 10th, 2010 at 10:47 am
Equally it could be said that the biggest troughers were those who had spent the longest in parliament and the solution is to have fixed terms for MP’s.
243
Correlation is not causation, for a start.
But it may be more than coincidental.
237 - Yes. I overlooked it due to the fact that it hasn’t happened.
Bradford has been demolished, not regenerated. Wembley remains a dump. Oldham is like a warzone and Rochdale is as dispiriting as ever.
Of course, I can only describe the urban areas I know… All the others might have been regenerated.
237 ‘The regeneration of virtually every urban centre in the country’
Really? Name some, and don’t include any that were regenerated by private investors.
“Small minded petty parochial tw**”
This site is really bad for my irony meters. That’s another one exploded.
250 - In the spirit of fairness. Leeds and Manchester city centres are in my opinion nicer places than they were a decade ago.
Manchester Liverpool Leeds?
The places you’ve mentioned would have to be moved!
254. In reply to David at 250
237 - Agree about urban regeneration. Though I’d say it’s ben mainly large urban centres that have benefited; medium sized towns (like Stockport) have gone downhill. But the reasons for this aer comlpex.
But I’d say that this started in the late 80s / early 90s (thinking in particular of Leeds and Newcastle). The case of Manchester is interestnig; until 1987 Manchester City Council ran a policy of non-co-operation with the government, with the result that regeneration in Manchester was pretty slow off the mark, and that regeneration money instead was focused on Salford Quays (Salford council being somewhat less truculent).
It’s also intersting to compare the regeneration on the north bank of the Tyne in the 90s with that on the south bank of the Tyne this last decade. On the north bank there are a string of healthy and profitable businesses (mainly bars / pubs / restaurants etc); on the south bank there are a small number of huge and loss-making publicly funded buildings (the Baltic gallery and the Sage). Now the Sage and the Baltic are very nice, but they’re costing money rather than making money, and this has to some extent typified the government’s approach to regeneration.
Making towns and cities look good is very fine, but we need to have them making money as well.
Having said all that, I do applaud a lot of what’s been done under this government to improve our towns and cities.
246. Tabman, it could be that troughers seek out the safe seats rather than other way around. Doubtful, I know, as it is more likely that the comfort of their position leads to a sense of propriety.
Either way - it is probably a good thing if certain politicians had to show a bit more connectedness to get elected - so it doesn’t really diminish the argument. Safe seats = more troughers. FPTP = more safe seats.
242 Parallel to you perhaps, but firmly rooted in the real world.
I guess you’ve never been to the centre of Sheffield, Leeds, Manchester, London’s South Bank, Trafalgar Square, Bristol, Glasgow, Newcastle-Gateshead, Portsmouth, Cardiff, Birmingham…
All quite different to how they were in 1997. Totally taken for granted IMO.
Manchester city centres are in my opinion nicer places than they were a decade ago.
Something to thank the IRA for then!
“But it may be more than coincidental.”
And it may not be. And given there are other changes that are more clearly directly related to expenses, electoral reform is arguably the least important.
208 - You are right to an extent. It is easy to fall into the trap of thinking that your opponents have dubious motives, when they often just see the world in a different way. If you don’t do that, you cannot have proper debate. It’s a trap we all fall into and we shouldn’t.
So, let’s put it another way. I think Mrs T and her government got it wrng on tax cuts because there were other things - such as educaiton, the NHS and regeneration - that should have taken priority. The fact that the tax cuts were unsustainable is demonstrated byt he fact that the NHS and education, for example, were under-resourced during the 1990s at least. I believe that because buildings were falling down and standards were poor - as shown by waiting lists, poor literacy and numeracy rates etc.
To stay on topic, and in answer to the points in Mike’s article above.
This election is a change election. Its about change from Labour. The question is, to whom?
The default choice is the Conservatives. It is the Lib Dem’s challenge to sow seeds of doubt about that default choice in order to advance their own cause. Supporting a referendum for change paints the Conservatives as defenders of the Status Quo - ie No Change Really - its just a PR illusion.
Clever politics.
Anyway, while we’re praising our political opponents, here are some positive things about people I normally criticise:
1) Gordon Brown kept us out of the Euro; I’m convinced that without him Tony would have just ploughed happily in without a referendum. No matter how stuffed our economy is now, it would be far worse if we were locked in to the Euro and unable to devalue (like Greece etc.)
2) I find Nick Clegg far less irritating than Charles Kennedy.
225 Jonathan - I think we already did something like that around Christmas or the New Year. My praise for 1997-2010 would include:
Civil Partnerships [Special praise because the Tories would never have done this. I had big doubts originally. I was wrong.]
Freedom of Information Act [needs some minor tweaks in the light of experience, but a jolly good thing overall]
Delegating interest rate decisions to the BoE
Staying out of the Euro
Academy schools [partial praise only, because they didn't go as far as Blair wanted]
Smoking ban [although they overdid it - banning people from smoking in their own vans was ridiculous]
Most of the other good things Labour supporters point to (improved school buildings etc) are just spending money - I can’t really praise that because they didn’t get value for that money.
262 - Labour themselves are trying to portray themselves as the change. They are more likely to be noticed as possible change-givers than the Lib Dems.
258: Bristols going downhill again. Cabot Circus has ripped the heart out of the Galleries and the old ‘centre’ making them virtual ghost towns.
Same thing happened in Southampton when the new centre opened up. Some places a lot better, but the old centre got a lot worse.
244. The really interesting thing about that piece on Eurozone debt problems is the table of upcoming maturities - Greece’s biggest financing problems are likely to come in April-May, when there is a big bunching of debt maturities.
Nice timing from a UK political perspective..
262 - see 214.
241 That would be a silly question. It would be like asking why someone had joined the Labour Party in the Eighties if they weren’t a Sinn Fein-supporting Communist fellow-traveller.
251 The centre of Newcastle looks a lot more impressive now than it did in “Get Carter”. I’m not sure about other places, though.
240 I agree. But, Labour still *assume* that Lib Dem voters would break heavily in their favour.
243 There seems to be a clear correlation on the Conservative side, but no such correlation on the Labour side.
222 - Spending on educaiotn and the health service under the Tories were well below European averages and it showed. With the North Sea oil and privatisaiotn windfalls she and major could have done a whole lot more, but they did not. They chose tax cuts which, because they were financed by windfalls, were unsustainable.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/david-amess-expenses-bank-17843.html
Paul Lloyd - does this support your thesis?
261 Thanks, Southam. That’s a gracious response.
‘It would be like asking why someone had joined the Labour Party in the Eighties if they weren’t a Sinn Fein-supporting Communist fellow-traveller.’
Yes, and?
Regarding Ashcroft and his <2% funding which NickMP has raised above, why does Nick not look closer to home at how his party has been taken over? The elephant in the room of party funding and influence is the Unite Union.
From an article here in April 2009 by OGH.
“If the Conservative party had a single donor called UnitePLC that provided 40% of its donations, provided the CEO of the Conservative party, had its Head of PR setup websites for the Conservatives, hired people like Derek McPoison to run smear campaigns, unfairly influenced the process whereby many of its UnitePLC employees become Conservative MPs through donations and Uniteplc block votes in CLPs….. we would all be outraged at the infiltration of the Conservative party by a single company. But if we just changed the word Conservative to Labour in the above and deleted “plc” we arrive at the state of the Labour party.”
Unite are THE elephant in the room.
The fact that the political hacks at the papers, BBC, Sky etc never focus on this shows how poor they are. The only one who ran with Mike’s article was Simon Mayo. Which puts Simon above the rest.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/04/21/is-truelabour-right-to-worry-about-unite/
269 - which is clear evidence about how Brown is obsessed with tactics and fails to see the bigger picture. An election held now under AV would wipe Labour out - and hence another reason for the Lib Dems to support it on party-political terms as in all likelihood it would help them to gaiin a slough of Labour seats.
This AV stuff will have next to no impact on the electorate at all.
258 - I’d say Sheffield more than any of the others looks fantastic. I lived there from 1993-1996 and remember how grotty the city centre was when I moved there. (Beautiful city in general, though; no other English city has such fine suburbs or such a fine setting. Anyway.) But I also remember that for much of that period much of the city was a building site; and that when left it was considerably more attractive and more usable than when I arrived.
Credit to the Labour government for keeping it going, but urban regeneration predates 1997.
Apparently the people sitting behind Cameron for his last speech weren’t the students they looked like but young campaign team members brought in for the purpose.
Can’t say I think the story has any legs.
The UK’s inflation rate will rise above 3% in the coming weeks, the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has predicted.
Oh Geez, not Stagflation. I thought that was consigned to the history books. Time to re-revise my ‘O’-level Economics and dust-off my copy of The Road to Serfdom….
278: Shocker…..I’m sure labour would never do anything similar and pack an event with only their supporters.
274 - simple. Ban any sort of organisation from donating to political parties. Cap individual donations at £5k per FY, all declarable.
280 - Personally I will never take a political announcement at face value ever again after hearing this news.
277 Labour have done a good job on urban renewal. The evidence is clear and obvious. What I find strange is that they say absolutely nothing about it. Totally taken for granted IMO. You’re right about Sheffield.
270 The Conservatives’ priority at the time was to end, and then start reversing, decades of relative economic decline. Higher spending on public services, financed by higher levels of taxation, would have prevented them from doing so.
283 - how much of this was funded via the EU?
277 - I agree with regard to the Sheffield suburbs (though voting Clegg makes me like them less) but I find the city centre awful.
Though it might just have been bad luck, I have never gone into a more sinister pub (outside going into a ‘wrong’ pub in Scotland or Northern Ireland) than the first one I went into in Sheffield.
Kinda gave everything else a brown tint.
285
since we are a net contributor, arguably none.
264 Mr Nabavi - agree, and the smoking ban went far too far - I’ve never smoked but can’t see any reason why consenting adults can’t have their own clubs where they can smoke if they want to.
I’d also add removing the restrictions on pub opening hours etc - they got it half right.
“Ban any sort of organisation from donating to political parties. Cap individual donations at £5k per FY, all declarable.”
Wasn’t this actually proposed, but Labour refused to agree due to wanting to maintain Union funding?
278
To be honest, when I first saw the picture, I wasn’t aware it was supposed to be anything other than party supporters.
283 - how much of this was funded via the EU?
by Tabman February 10th, 2010 at 11:22 am
I not sure but I don’t think any of it was because we are net contributors to the EU. We give them money, they give it back after creaming some off.
283: Off the back of economic prosperity generated by the Tories.
@275:
The concept of political strategy seems an alien one to Brown.
The concept of *politics* seems to cause Clegg similar problems.
289, £50k limit, including organisations. Labour and the ever-obedient Lib Dems cried because the Tories wanted it to apply to unions.
271. I am not sure it has much bearing to be quite honest - I think it just shows what a prat David Amess is.
286 - when was the last time you were there? Sheffield is a veritable urban paradise. Can you remember what the pub was?
285 - Aside from money that goes to Liverpool, I don’t think there’s that much EU money goes to English cities. Though I’d make the case that it was all British money in the first place.
But no matter where the money comes from, we must praise the political will that made it happen.
The relevant city councils must also take a considerable degree of credit - indeed, perhaps more.
247. Fluffy, You will have to excuse me today, have a heavy cold and a bit grumpy. However given the standard of comments buy some people on here it is little wonder. I am sure patrick is a nice person when he engages his brain and does not stoop to petty insults.
285 - “how much of this was funded via the EU?”
Not a penny I assure you, as the UK is a net contributer any funding provided by the EU is ours already, minus a 20% service charge of course.
285
Where does the EU get it’s money?
296. Grrrrr even making spelling mistakes now, think it is time to give up.
279. Stop being silly. ‘Stagflation’ was a term coined in the 1970s when inflation averaged 15% per annum.
262, 268 etc. The challenge for the Lib Dems is to convince people that they offer real change to the current system, and to paint Lab&Con as both equating to ‘the system’.
There are a number of issues where they are positioned to do this - expenses, Iraq etc. and some of the problems the Tories have been having (airbrushing, car following cameron on his bike etc.) will help them in this.
The challenge is getting the airtime to do it nationally, although they may well be able to do it in the seats that count for them.
Besides which a lot of urban developments were already in the pipeline prior to 1997.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WestQuay in Southampton, building work started in 1997. Not sure ‘Labour’ can fully take credit for a lot of these things.
[263] - 2) I find Nick Clegg far less irritating than Charles Kennedy.
Beware of lack of visibility bias. Compared to Kennedy I rarely hear Clegg, so consequently it follows that he has less opportunity to irritate.
293 I always thought the day of reckoning would come on that one and fingers crossed - it’s only a few weeks away.
If members of unions want to donate to Labour - let them, not the union on their behalf. Labour/Unite etc could easily set up a system to farm the membership lists and ask for a direct debit or one off donation. Since lots of union members *aren’t* Labour voters - that’d even things out
301 - the financial crisis has also been an asset in this regard. I expect some of this to be cashed in during the campaign.
303 - I expect that the British public* will conclude that they preferred Charles Kennedy drunk to Nick Clegg sober.
*Give or take 30 or so.
302. “http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WestQuay in Southampton, building work started in 1997. Not sure ‘Labour’ can fully take credit for a lot of these things.”
Why not? It never stopped Brown including a couple of years of growth from the Major years when Brown was boasting about the UK economy.
286 The most unwelcoming pub I ever entered was in Mallaig.
Good things that Labour has done?
The Kosovo war; staying out of the Euro; sticking to Conservative spending plans up to 2001; the Woolf reforms of the civil courts in 1998; refusing to opt into an EU Succession Law.
240 tabman
As a fan of democracy, what do you think about the indecent haste with which a Commons vote was moved in a HoC where we know at the very least ~140 members will no longer be MPs after the election due to them standing down, and in all likelihood the number of new MPs will probably be north of 250 as others lose their seats.
In other words, the vote for a referendum will in 3 months time be one which was taken by less than 2/3 of sitting MPs. Not very democratic is it? It is effectively just the opinions of lots of soon-to-be members of the public!
If the tories had promised a referendum in their manifesto however and reneged on it (sound familiar?), well then they would deserve criticism…
In the spirit of praising our opponents, I note that Cameorn has good taste in shoes.
Canary Wharf is a good example. Croydon is actually worse than before. Brighton has been largely spared regeneration commitees both recent and of the 60s variety. Peckham is Peckham. Ditto Brixton.
Something did have to be done about some of our cities, but we shouldn’t forget how they came to look like a soviet commune in the first place.
We’re in danger of repeating the mistakes of the 60s by turning most of the country into a ‘luxury, waterside, architect designed urban living environment.’ AKA Barret Boxes.
@306:
What is a Clegg? I don’t think we know, because it’s probable he doesn’t.
We know what a Vince is: a self-aggrandising twat with delusions of rectitude despised by his colleagues. But Clegg? Nothing.
301 PTB
if that’s the challenge they have failed miserably. LD are as much of the system as the others and it shows in their electoral support.
285:
Given our net contribution to the EU, every £1 of funding they deign to give us back could have been about £1.20 if we’d stayed out of the EU, but funded it ourselves.
309 - but is not a change to the voting system, its offering a referendum on making such a change. One that has been in Labour’s manifesto since 1997. So the opposite argument holds - why didn’t they get round to it earlier?
And - at the end of the day, if the British Public prefer the status quo as most Conservatives seem to believe, then they wil vote for it. This is what I can’t understnad - we’re constantly told that this is an irrelevance and the GBP aren’t interested, so why are you so afraid of it?
306
312 “We know what a Vince is”
And, pray, who is the Royal “We”?
@314:
But then, most of the net outflow from the EU goes into structural funds aimed at bringing our chums in Central and Eastern Europe up to scratch. You know, functioning market economies, strong single market, fighting corruption etc.
That’s the sort of thing you might imagine was desirable.
Another balanced panel on the Daily Politics…………..
Andrew Neil and Jo Coburn are joined by Lib Dem peer Shirley Williams and Culture Secretary Ben Bradshaw ……..
We know who Vince is and we know who Gideon is. Perhaps that is all we need to know.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/feb/09/george-osborne-vince-cable-chancellor
@315:
So, the Lib Dem position is to hold referendums on things people *don’t* want, and not hold them on things people *do* want.
You’re not very good at this game are you?
318 MC
but that can be funded directly too. We don’t ask the EU to handle our aid to India for us.
re 319. The Tory who had been booked had to pull out at the last minute
“So, the Lib Dem position is to hold referendums on things people *don’t* want”
Clegg really blew it with that U-turn, didn’t he. He’s really not that good at strategy.
@322:
India is not part of a single market with us, which makes it something of a moot point.
323 - Where is Finbar Saunders when you need him?
Watch history being made! Witness the National Assembly in action:
http://news.google.co.uk/news/section?pz=1&cf=all&ned=uk&topic=n&ict=ln
Thrilling stuff.
Those easily inclined to day-time nodding off (Jack!) may wish to top up their caffeine levels.
Wrong link:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/wales/newsid_8504000/8504182.stm
318. An alternative view would be that much of that money ends up in the pockets of local elites, directly or indirectly, thus boosting their support for EU integration. That’s the idea, anyway
Mervyn King downbeat on UK prospects.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7204483/Bank-of-England-cuts-growth-forecasts-for-UK.html
@329:
Maybe, but some countries have been able to develop quickly using EU structural funds. Ireland went from being a third world hellhole to a developed nation in a generation, and widely considers the EU to have been instrumental in that.
From Guido
guidofawkes Speaker Suspends Payments to Theft Charged MPs: Some sense seems to be prevailing over the theft charged Labour MP… http://bit.ly/dkhce9
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_midlands/8508023.stm
Ouch for Brum.
323. It couldn’t have been Tim Ye*o.
331 MC
yeah but that’s not down to structural funds - it’s more to do with a low tax regime and wage control. I dare you to walk into a bar in Dublin and tell them it’s all down to EU transfers.
Shirley Williams doing a great job of defending Labour. Why did she ever leave?
306 It is a bit of a myth that Clegg is either less well known or less popular than Kennedy was. When we look back at Kennedy we remember his popularity during and after elections, which isn’t comparing like for like.
According to MORI:
Jan 2001 Kennedy: 33% satisfied against 19% dissatisfied = net +14%
(June 2001: 59% sat, 17% dis = net + 42)
Jan 2005 Kennedy: 39% sat, 28% dis = net +11%
(May 2005: 49% sat, 28% dis = net +21%)
Jan 2010 Clegg: 42% sat, 26 % dis = net +16%
Therefore Clegg currently has a higher positive, higher net positive and higher recognition level than Kennedy did at the same point in both 2001 and 2005.
And there is common trend for Lib Dem Leader ratings to rise strongly during the campaign.
295 - No. I didn’t take the name. I just downed my drink and ran.
It was 3 years ago.
331 Southern Italy, OTOH, hasn’t, despite zillions of EU money going there.
337 PTB
the desperation is showing.
339: The Mafia like it though.
313 - But is that how Lib Dem MPs are seen in the seats they hold, or LD challengers in seats they are aiming to win? Looking at the big marginals poll I wonder if they aren’t seen rather differently in their key seats than the general view here.
@335:
I think you misunderstand my point. The structural funds are a right wing enterprise. They are given to new EU members to encourage the adoption of such things as a low tax regime and wage control, to make them better able to function as members of the single market. Most of the more successful Central and Eastern European new joiners are developing down exactly the same route.
The EU structural funds are a sinister neoliberal conspiracy to promote prosperity through competitive markets.
93 - It takes a special kind of person to become a Lib Dem.
Like a former SNP councillor:
http://www.libdemvoice.org/good-news-for-katy-gordon-as-snp-councillor-switches-17888.html
333 - Ouch indeed. But well done that BBC journalist for getting ‘crematoria’ past the sub-editors.
335 - They’d agree with you. The last woman I talked to in Dublin did anyway.
340 Indeed it is. Many folk on here are desperately hoping that the general public have the same view of Clegg as they do. However the available evidence suggests otherwise.
332
Bercow is turning out nicely.
@339:
Italy seems peculiarly resilient to fixing corruption in its southern half, but since Italy’s one of the big four, I doubt it gets much in the way of structural funds these days.
340 – Clegg has a higher rating precisely because of his relative obscurity – on the other hand, Kennedy was a high profile name recognised by millions and still got good ratings.
BTE, Clogg’s mother has trouble picking him out in a crowd.
340. Alanbrooke - “the desperation is showing”
Indeed!
Has Mark Senior been on yet?
He’s always good for a laugh.
When the going gets tough for the Laberals, on comes their knight in shining armour - the Sage of Sussex - to defend the puir wee souls’ honour.
It is OK Mark: your knight services are not required. Nick Clegg is NOT a pure virgin. He has even slept with thirty burds. He told us so himself.
@346:
The evidence suggests that the electorate don’t know or care who he is.
Shirley Williams wants the BBC to display what the results would have been under AV on election night!
319 - I don’t know Jo Coburn’s politics - but apart from her it’s one Tory, one LD, one Lab. Seems balanced to me.
On topic: Absolutely. For some LibDems they will need ex-Labour voters to counter any UNS movements so it makes sense for them to be hitched to more Labour policies than others who have gained from disaffected Tories. Like others I doubt the specific issue will be sufficient to stir the emotions of the average voter, but it does allow the Tories to connect them where they can use it on the doorstep.
Looks like the Lib Dem collapse north of the border is complete:
http://www.libdemvoice.org/good-news-for-katy-gordon-as-snp-councillor-switches-17888.html
342 PTB
ok with:
1. worst recession in years
2. most unpopular PM in living history
3. Tory party for whom large chunks of the electorate will not vote
4. tired and failing government
explain why LDs aren’t on a higher percentage of the vote. Electorally the climate has not been this benign for LDs since 1981. In the 1983 election LDs were running Labour to the wire and finished 2.2 % behind.
Why are LDs not doing this now ?
Evil Tories are manipulating the media according to the first questioner! Bless - not those social care leaders who don’t like Labour’s plans…
352. Surely the tiny % of the public who give an Aylesbury duck can log into a lib dem website to find out ?
Time to go out to pasture.
343. Well that’s a novel interpretation. I think I’d rank it alongside the recent Guardian piece condemning the BBC for becoming the mouthpiece of climate change denial.
Cameron is already on the backfoot.
Good question from Cameron on social care - Gordon’s floundering
352 - *slaps forehead and belms furiously* - is she going to get the electorate to run a separate dummy election using AV so they can do this? Or is she just going to assume all Labour voters will put the Lib Dem as second preference and vice versa?
352 Rod - So Shirley’s still as bonkers as ever, eh? Is she suggesting the BBC should pioneer clairvoyance to discover what voters’ second choices might have been?
349 “Clegg has a higher rating precisely because of his relative obscurity”
I have to say I’m struggling to beat this sort of logic!
Brown already on the back foot.
More proof that sunlight is the best disinfectant…
Dubai: An Arab ambassador said he decided to call off his wedding immediately after he discovered that his wife-to-be, who wears a niqab, was bearded and cross-eyed.
http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/uae/crime/man-claims-fiancee-hid-beard-under-niqab-1.580722
343 MC
EU structural funds are simply bribe money for politicians to distribute largesse.
Gordon is so stupid - he’s given the Tory poster a plug IDIOT
Foot is already on the back foot.
Poll Tax?
355 - My expectation is that the LDs will win about three times as many seats as they did in 1983, possibly more.
Their headline poll ratings are similar to the same point in 2005, with a relatively new leader.
I don’t think they are badly positioned at all.
Brown will not rule out the Grim Reaper Tax…….
It’s getting very NASTY
Bercow reminds me of Graham Poll, refree wanting to be the star.
What is all this about Brown eating 9 bananas a day?
Brown avoiding the question three times.
369. He said that Cameron has being leader for four years, and what has he achieved, Brown has being PM for two and a half years, what has he achieved?
Gordon’s just exhumed ‘no time for a novice’ - so he’s got an ancient soundbite, poster-mentionitis and hasn’t rebutted the Tory challenge.
Numpty.
How does Mr Marsden know so much about Blackpool? Does he get messages through on the fax machine?
I thought he lived in Brighton?
Rather unpleasant Cameron v Brown session today. No one got the upper hand, though Brown’s pre-prepared soundbites sound too much like them…
The poster now seems entirely justified given that the PM won’t rule it out when directly asked.
374 - to get fit for the election. He now munches on bananas instead of KitKats. As Guido pointed out, however, bananas are potassium rich, and you need to be careful you’re not getting to much of it - since it can cause heart attacks very suddenly.
374. He thinks if he does he can turn this country into his vision - A Banana Republic…….
352. How on earth could they do that, since the ballot papers wont be ranked. Silly woman.
Brown was so weak, so pathetic and just failed to show any Prime Ministerial qualities.
Good questions from Clegg.
Once again we are seeing the be very nice to Nick Clegg moment…
Is Brown trying to be nice to Clegg?
After the ranting and raving of Cameron and Brown, Clegg’s a breath of fresh air, not hot air.
374 - “What is all this about Brown eating 9 bananas a day?”
My granny used to eat lots of bananas. You have to be careful to control the levels of potassium that can build up.
370 PTB
so I can interpret that as Clegg won’t win any more seats than Charlie Kennedy did and your share of the national vote is stagnating.
You should be asking why your ambitions are so low as to be satisfied with a 2005 baseline.
- all 3 parties have new leaders
- there has been a massive change in economic prospects since 2005
- the government’s credibility is shot to pieces
- under Brown Labour have vacated the centre ground of politics
being satisfied with 2005 just shows enormous complacency. I suspect Charles Kennedy wouldn’t be so laid back at this point in the electoral cycle.
384 I thought Gordon was awful - stuttering, belligerant, crap jokes and failed to answer the question - all he did was give it legs.
Trying to make it a problem for the Tories isn’t going anywhere.
384, he flounders, as usual, but he seems to flounder with a lot more confidence.
If the pilot announced over the intercom that the aeroplane was going to crash and we are all going to die, I would much prefer him to do so in a confident way, rather then in sobbing hysteria.
321 - “So, the Lib Dem position is to hold referendums on things people *don’t* want, and not hold them on things people *do* want.”
You don’t know this. No-one does; that is why you have a referendum - to determine the answer.
You’re not very good at this, are you?
Great stuff from Carswell on Greece
387: ‘Is Brown trying to be nice to Clegg?’
As prognosticatory as ever, I speculated that he would be last night:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/02/09/will-we-ever-do-negative-as-effectively-as-this/#comment-1420450
Would have been nice if Brown had confirmed that we would not be bailing out Greece in any circustances, as he was asked. Instead, he deflected…. Things that make you go “Mmmmmmmmmmmmm……..”
Douglas Carswell did an open thread on what to ask today when he knew he was down for a question:
http://www.talkcarswell.com/show.aspx?id=1291
Sherlock Holmes had one pipe problems and two pipe problems etc. Perhaps we could categorize DC’s questions as requiring one banana answers and two banana answers.
Brown in good ‘line’ shock, he should have used it earlier. “running out of ideas before they get into government” was clever, and obviously not thought up by him.
tim b 374#,
As a fruit exporting guy these days, I can advise bananas as a fruit have a great deal of toxic chemicals used on them, which will diffuse into the fruit, and nine bananas a day would be an issue. Better to eat nine apples. Anything except kit kats……
Ashcroft, bore bore bore, most conservative councillors have no idea about who Ashcroft is, never mind the general public.
398 - At least we now understand why David Miliband is still in the Cabinet: Chief Fruiterer.
Has anyone seen the Labour mock-ups of the Tory poster? They’re quite dreadful, still peddling the line that Cameron will somehow look forward to an extra £500k while spending time in his coffin…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1249774/Will-Labours-care-elderly-plan-hit-middle-classes.html
393 – Tabman, you possess a remarkable ability to ignore the concerns of your fellow Lib Dems with regard to this issue, may I suggest you read UKPaul’s comments from yesterday and OGH’s thoughts in the thread heading.
I would also like to know what exactly your party-leader has gained from all this? Baring in mind Mike’s words that “electoral reform that’s represented by AV is an abomination to the Lib Dems” and yesterday’s poll which had 70% believing it to be a gerrymandering stunt by Brown.
Do you not see any downside to all this.
Brown will need a four-fingered Kit Kat after this.
399 notme - Not sure that ‘before they get into government’ is very smart.
I see Brown’s improved performance has drifted away back to Tractor Stats again. His quips no longer flow as easily as they did…
381, 389 - he won’t get fit by eating bananas, sounds like another classic Brown dividing line that failed: when I got a personal trainer last year the first thing he did (otherwise than tell me to do 45 minutes of cardio every day and inflict pain on me twice a week) was to give me a diet plan, because “you can’t out-train poor nutrition”.
Specifically absent from the plan was any mention of bananas. (I asked)
“next election is being bought by a tax exile”.
Assuming he means Ashcroft rather than Lord Paul, that the next election can be bought at 2% of the Tories’ total income seems ridiculously cheap.
Does anyone else think the Ashcroft thing is just totally irrelevant (from the point of view of the wider electorate)?
Even I don’t really give a toss either way, nor do I care about Lord Paul and so on. We know all party funding is dirty, so what does one individual matter?
Brown’s little set-piece Tory-bashing speeches in response to planted questions have been particularly feeble today.
394. Nice to see my suggestions being taken up
Brown’s response was far from comforting - more traction on this issue yet. I imagine it’s another issue where the Lib Dems can be relied on to line up with Labour as well.
It’s incredible how many of these MPs in marginal seats clearly feel ON THE ROPES
409 - On a point of fact, Sir George Young said it was 5%.
Loving the Guardian’s PMQ blog - he’s putting in twitters from Lab MP’s saying a clear win for Gordon..
Aside from the sheer news-worthiness of that!!! I wonder if this is also an example of Labour now trying to use twitter (McCarthy is one of those quoted) to try and influence the interpretation and reporting of an event.
I take any comments back, they’ve all be useless today.
Gordon just said that the Tories had dozens of policies - but he said the opposite about 20 mins ago??
Has tim been sold to the highest bidder? And is the highest bidder French?
PMQs is dire. Nothing of interest, and just random shouting.
407. Exactly, Cameron has started attacking, Brown slips back into rambling nonsense and tractor stats. His quips look more and more like he’s been coached into them and never fit in properly.
Striking, the respect shown Chris Mullin in a noisy house.
Brown is insane. Redwood asks a question about inflation and Brown rants on about Conservative Policy. Its time for the straightjackets and men in white coats for Brown. He needs to be locked up for everybody’s safety
“On a point of fact, Sir George Young said it was 5%.”
[Limp applause]
Heale on the back foot.
Brown was dire today. Poll tax???? No time for a novice????
Also, Browns refusal to answer the death tax question suddenly makes the Tories poster look quite good doesn’t it? Against the consensus of the MSM yesterday, of course.
404 - AFAIK UK Paul is not a Lib Dem.
The upside to all this is that Electoral Reform has got higher up the agenda, which is in itself a good thing. It also shows the Conservatives to be supporters of the status quo ante, which in a change election is from a party-politial point of view a good thing.
But this is not about party politics - as I believe that the introduction of STV would lead to a realignment of parties that more accurately reflect coherent political positions (including my own).
Pension links to earnings only existed because in the mid 1970s the government was so poorly managed that the existing link to inflation was crippling public finances.
The link to earnings was originally introduced as a means to cut expenditure, Maggie merely restored what was the situation prior to the 70s mess.
Why are there so many scruffy women in Parliament? Bring on Esther McVey!
423 - I was just correcting the factual inaccuracy in your statement, David.
Brown avoiding answering question on whether Britain will be contributing to the bail out of Greece.
So we will be borrowing more to lend more to one of the very few countries that have borrowed more.
And it will all be solved with a Tobin tax.
Simples, innit.
The one thing I’ve got from PMQs is that Gordon is going for anyone who doesn’t agree with him is against concensus [why does that sound like AGW??]
Pathetic stuff - trying to shut down the argument is really irritating.
What has a Tobin Tax got to do with bailing out Greece.
re 381 Ahem - I did point out the potential potassium problem with excessive banana ingestion on here a few days ago - no need to read Mr Fawkes.
And to those getting their knickers in a twist about AV projections of the election result, pollsters often ask people who their second choice would be if they couldn’t have their first. All it needs is a question in the exit poll. Simples.
Since Ashcroft is now apparently the Tories “chief fundraiser”, which is a lie, does this mean that, thanks to the ‘union modernisation funds’, the taxpayer is now Labour’s chief fundraiser? Thinking about it, that’s true even without employing the Brownie lies.
notme - “If the pilot announced over the intercom that the aeroplane was going to crash and we are all going to die, I would much prefer him to do so in a confident way, rather then in sobbing hysteria.”
I’d be most happy if the pilot were to point out that there was another plane, visible from the port-side windows, that was being flown incredibly dangerously. Hopefully by ignoring the mountain he’s about to crash into, and shifting focus on to the other plane and its insane pilot, the mountain will disappear (or no-one will notice that it was he who steered the plane to its untimely end). I like that kind of pilot. So long as I’m in the other plane
Minor win for Cameron. All leaders unimpressive. The Carswell-Stuart question on Greece was the most important.
The big loser was Speaker Frodo, who lacked authority and never once pulled up the PM when he, yet again, banged on about the Tories during his own answers.
If that PMQ’s represents the PM that will be wheeled out for the GE Debates, then Labour should be very afraid. So afraid as to ensure that the debates do not happen…
432 laurenceallen
What has a Tobin Tax got to do with bailing out Greece.
I was thinking the same. Anyone here know?
DP homing in on GB not answering the care question.
433 Chris A - You’d also have to ask what the first choice would have been, and consider the fact that, with AV, the options offered to the voter would very likely be different. It’s completely meaningless projecting voting intentions from one system into a hypothetical election under a different system.
429 Yeah that was churlish of me, sorry.
Gordon’s twenty grand death tax gift to the Conservative Party is greatly appreciated.
Ben Bradshaw just confirmed the death levy is an option. Attack Dave.
Will this “the Tories aren’t committing to Labour guarantees” line work? Surely it’s just saying the Tories aren’t agreeing with our policies, to which the answer would be “Well d’uh.”
441 - Thanks.
442, 443 - The Tories appear to have struck gold with this. Last night it looked like they were inventing Labour policies. Today they seem to have found a new 10p tax.
442 / 443 - you have better ways of paying for long term care?
Lord North on the back foot
ROFL The Daily Politics invaded by Astroturfers, even Andrew Neil was mocking the obvious fake texts/emails.
Andrew Neill says Brown on the back FOOT !!! Tee-hee.
426. as I believe that the introduction of STV would lead to a realignment of parties that more accurately reflect coherent political positions (including my own).
Indeed and there we have it an admission of support for self-indulgent centralised engineering of the political system to improve the lot of specific parties. The Libdems are no less insidious and no less centralist and anti democratic than Labour.
Well I was wavering over my vote for the Conservatives but last night brought me back into the fold. Anything to stop the dishonest, hypocritical corrupt and mendacious left of centre establishment parties.
Oh and should Cameron win the election and push through his electoral reforms I do hope that Sheffield Hallam and Twickenham are amongst the seats that disappear. All parties can play an underhand games….
Iain Dale
@KerryMP says re: £20k levy “it’s an option”. Nice one, thanks for clearing that up. 6 minutes ago
So Labour lying through their teeth again, they do want a death tax.
White scores it 4 Clegg, 3 Trout, 2 DC
Sparrow scores it a Trout win as he was statemanlike… er…
Conservativehome says clear win for DC
Shock horror then.
Long live £20k for the many - IHT planning could be given a massive boost for those previously thinking they were exempt now risking their kids losing £20k….. loads of whole of life policies written in trust for £20k to mitigate this maybe?
I love Labour’s taxes
Um, why do we need to tax Laura Tobin?
I’ll get me coat…
442, 446 etc:
Ahem.
Amidst all the excitement, I think the potentially most important story this evening has hardly been commented on - the story linked to by Me at 112, on the proposed funding of care for the elderly by grabbing their estate on death, irrespective of whether they actually needed the care - in other words, a sort of longevity tax.
…
This is a good example of the kind of danger Labour have placed themselves in. They could have suggested this as an equitable way to fund expensive and necessary care at a time when money is desperately short. That would always have been a very hard policy to sell, but at least it would have been honest.
Instead, offering ‘free care’ in one speech, to a big fanfare, and a few weeks later revealing that this ‘free care’ will cost you £20,000 whether you use it or not (assuming you’ve got £20,000 in your estate, of course), would be a piece of monumental political mismanagement.
It will be interesting to see whether it sees the light of day - and whether Cammo presses them on it.
by Richard Nabavi February 8th, 2010 at 11:39 pm
452 - Maybe you should take time out and read the papers on this.
446 It is of much wider application than the 10p tax though. Tories can say “vote Labour - and it will cost you £20,000 to die!”
Which will link nicely with the Tories (finally!) getting across their message that only millionaires will be paying anything on death under them.
Huge problem for Labour. HUGE!
455. Well done Richard N.
Trying to get poster of the year votes lined up already - I’ll have you as second choice on my AV score-card.
455 - The Poster of the Year is clearly in no mood to give up his laurels.
442/443/446.
beauty of this now is that Brown either:
a) confirms/doesn’t deny there is a £20k death tax in the pipeline.
b) rules out the £20k tax and is accused of dithering/u-turn and is then asked how he pays for his policy now.
It’s what happens when brown/Balls tries to manufacture a dividing line = FAIL
457 - So the Tories have a better proposal for the funding of long term care then?
20k to die? Labour will tax anything won’t they?
Seems Gordo has been done by one of his own dividing lines again…
Tories will cut your death taxes, Labour will increase them to pay for something you may never have used.
On the Labour rebuttal of it “just being an option”, I wonder if Squeaky little mole in the treasury has dug up something a bit more concrete on this? This is playing out from the standard Tory playbook, they make a big scene, Labour scream and shout about the Tories lying, then Tories produce some leaked documents to back up their claim.
437. “If that PMQ’s represents the PM that will be wheeled out for the GE Debates, then Labour should be very afraid. So afraid as to ensure that the debates do not happen…”
Yes, Brown is back to full-on shaky hands, tractors stats and howling at the moon.
451 “426. as I believe that the introduction of STV would lead to a realignment of parties that more accurately reflect coherent political positions (including my own).
Indeed and there we have it an admission of support for self-indulgent centralised engineering of the political system to improve the lot of specific parties. The Libdems are no less insidious and no less centralist and anti democratic than Labour.”
Ah, jsfl - the master of the non-sequitur.
NONE of the current parties accurately reflect my own political views, and there are a great many others (including, arguably, the 40% who don’t vote) who find that the current Red/Blue/Yellow coalitions don’t reflect their views.
There are people in other parties with whom I agree more than some in my own. Unfortunately, the political system we have currently prevents us from making common cause, because it relies more on tribal loyalty than any rational assessment of political judgement.
Perhaps I should spell it out - STV will mean the end of all three main parties, to the good of the country and the electorate.
461 - Doesn’t stop it from being good politics from Cameron. Although you do make a fair point.
The 20k death tax is a gift to the Tories - it’s simple, massive and scary for those who are most likely to vote.
Whoever drafted that Green Paper and left that bit in will no doubt be suffering from Nokia related injuries.
Gordon’s failure to reject it is the killer - 3x asked and 3x not answered.
Twenty grand to die under Labour?
I have a feeling this gift will keep on giving…
We must await the verdict of Lloyd Evans. I do wonder how he’ll call it.
461 Yes
SeanT’s got it right…it’s all going on booze n hookers.
461 - didn’t Lansley say at the conference that they were considering making it a voluntary thing that you can pay money in to when you reach a certain age? Like insurance, but not quite.
It’s not finalised, but it still sounds better than a death tax.
Bank of England governor admitted economy will take longer to recover than expected with inflation to hit 3.5 per cent . Brown is screwed.
460. Like I said yesterday attack Brown, put him under pressure, get him rattled and he is the gift that keeps on giving. Wind him up by saying detrimental things about him (like the poster) and then ask the targetted question. He blows it every time…….
Cameron needs to go after every dodgy Labour policy there is particularly on how Brown is going to fund it because you can guarantee it will all be based on stealth taxes and over-optimistic projections of GDP growth providing the necessary tax revenues and neither Brown will want to admit.
469 - do the Spectator know that the person they have review PMQs every week is actually considered a total joke?
466 Sir Norfolk - To be fair, the Tories do have an alternative plan, based on an optional insurance payment. Whether that is a better plan or not is open to debate - as Neil implies, there are no easy answers here, and someone’s got to pay for this increasingly expensive requirement. The problem from Labour’s point of view is that they have been dishonest, attempting to create a ‘dividing line’ by promising free care, which turns out to be totally bogus.
They now either do a messy U-turn, in which they will be in total disarray, or they stick to their guns, in which case the message which voters will get is not ‘free care’ but ‘£20K grab’.
The production of that poster by the Tories so rapidly was devastating. It has Osborne’s fingerprints all over it.
465. Perhaps I should spell it out - STV will mean the end of all three main parties, to the good of the country and the electorate.
Ever considered that such political anarchy might just allow the BNP or their ilk to take power?
Be careful what you wish for because such parties as the BNP won’t play by your rules (of course you could join them and play by theirs - as Libdems did last night with Labour - not impossible I suppose?)….
It is a shame tim isn’t around. Love to know how he spins Labour’s “£20k to die” as a vote winner….
Labour: guaranteening that life’s only certainties are death and taxes - in one easy-to-undertand policy…
475, if they read the comments they should.
I feel slightly sorry for Mr. Evans. He always gets a torrent of criticism, but he does rather earn it.
478: tim would love it, he doesn’t beleive in inherientance.
443. There must be some mistake - Roger assured us the 20k death tax was ‘bullsh*t’ last night.
R5 using Cameron questioning on social care dissent - mission accomplished for Tories.
I do hope they have something more up their sleeve.
“Ever considered that such political anarchy might just allow the BNP or their ilk to take power?
Be careful what you wish for because such parties as the BNP won’t play by your rules (of course you could join them and play by theirs - as Libdems did last night with Labour - not impossible I suppose?)….”
Oooooh - scary! The BNP boogeyman …
Any democracy should bea ble to tolerate all parties of whatever opinion and see them defeated at the ballet box through the paucity of theri ideas.
Frankly, the BNP and their ilk gain traction because they are able to argue credibly that the system is against them. and your reactionary views in this respect do more to promote their cause than any proportional system does.
Interesting PMQs for scoring winner/loser. Brown’s evasiveness, his stuttering and inability to deliver his prepared lines meant he looked the loser and I think most on right will think he lost. The “no time for a novice” shows just how desperate Gordon is to somehow recapture past glories and how hard they have found it to put together a strong attack on Cameron.
Cameron’s ease at the despatch box, his tenacity in asking the question repeatedly to show up Brown’s evasiveness didn’t disguise the issue that he had supported the policy in voting for it. So the left leaners will think Brown won because they think it showed Camera On/Camera Off.
@481:
That should have been your first sign Dave was on to something.
Neil - you are missing the political point I think.
Everyone knows LTC funding is a massive issue and there is a lot of complexity here hence the long-standing and ongoing review.
GORDON BROWN then stomped all over that in the search for a headline for his Lab party conference speech - it is his blatant posturing and posing on one side of his previous dividing lines which broke the consensual process - naturally in his calculating way it is for an issue which is really important issue for a section of the electorate who bother to vote.
He deserves all the mud slung at him on this.
precious not previou
The 20k death tax. What a gift for the Tories. At what age will it kick in? Imagine a 50 year old keeling over because of a heart attack and the money he set aside to put the kids through university being nicked by the government. Or the family of a 24 year old squaddie killed in Afganistan being left penniless because his insurance money was taken by the state to pay for oldies.
Labour are blind on inhertitance issues. They think either of the very poor who can’t afford to leave anything or that it is unfair the wealthy can. They don’t see how most people aspire to leave something for their kids and this would kill that.
475
He’s their theatre critic.
‘Any democracy should bea ble to tolerate all parties of whatever opinion and see them defeated at the ballet box through the paucity of theri ideas.’
Yes - as has happened to the Lib Dems consistently over the last ninety years,
Clegg did well - worth mentioning.
486 - I accept that some people are coming at the issue from this angle but even this over-simplifies it I feel. In any case I was just pointing out that, regardless of some people’s desire to land blows on Brown at every turn, long term care still has to be funded and the compulsory insurance option has plenty of merits and any alternative they might be proposed will be open to attack on other grounds. It’s not good enough to say “death taxes bad”.
Further to my 484 - it will of course cause no problems to Lloyd Evans in deciding the victor.
I think even if Gordon started tearing up his notes, throwing projectiles and crying floods while shouting “its not f***** fair, that f****** toff has it too easy” Lloyd would still give him, just, the upper hand.
483. Any democracy should bea ble to tolerate all parties of whatever opinion and see them defeated at the ballet box through the paucity of theri ideas.
Well a certain German democracy didn’t, did it? And these days it is far too easy for people to be influenced by shallow sound bite politics rather than looking deeply into what parties offer.
If what you say is true why is it that it is only in the last 20 years (and not just through FPTP I would add) that the BNP has seen success.
Do not underestimate the base appeal of their message to many. Not all voters are urban elitists…..
Gordon Brown: all tactics, no strategy.
Gordon Brown: all f*ck, no wit.
They are burning the EU flag in Athens.
Riot police fire tear gas on protesters in Athens as EU plans Greek bailout
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1249825/Euro-rallies-EU-plans-Greek-rescue-Brussels-Germans-poised-Athens-bailout.html
This really is a disaster in the works.
492. Well said - sadly from the moment Gordon broke the consensus approach for his conference speech, he chose to make it a political football and a dividing line. The policies settled on are crucial but he wanted to play politics with it.
10p remember was him playing politics regarding 2p off the basic rate.
496 - No need to get overexcited. This is just how they do things in Athens.
484. Evans will probably be drooling over the fact that Brown managed to repeat the ‘No Time For A Novice’ jibe. No matter that it was delivered appallingly.
483. Great post Tabman. Whatever the motives for seeking electoral reform at this moment, the case for it is overwhelming. BTW watching Eric ‘Cheese and…’ on C4 news I thought only Dickens had the kind of genius required to dream up a charcter of such repulsively oleaginous bonhomie.
The Speccy PMQ summary must be a bit grudging given their initial reaction to the poster……
VERDICT: Odd one, that. While the Tories’ crude poster stacked some of the chips against Cameron, the Tory leader majored on elderly care regardless – and ended up landing some pretty hefty blows. Above all, he would have been grateful for Brown’s evasiveness over the possibility of a death tax. Rather than following Andy Burnham’s example, by claiming that the death tax isn’t really on the cards, Brown simply avoided the question altogether. That won’t go down well on the news reports later. So, a clear win for Cameron. Oh, and a mention for Nick Clegg, too, whose measured performance was probably the pick of the bunch.
Mixed opinions across the inter-webby thing about PMQs with some saying Cameron win and some Brown win. Says it all… It was not a pleasant on the ear session…
498, well if you don’t think a country collapsing under sheer negligence and the EU paralyzed about what to do is overexcitement, then you must not have a clue. Greece could very well be the firestarter for a very very serious problem that will very probably escalate all over the EU.
Greeks are not known for their cooolheadedness or forgiveness.
426
‘But this is not about party politics’
Nominated for the crass comment of the year so far.
Watch out Roger you have a serious competitor.
498. Yes I would think things can deteriorate very dramatically from here.
Greece has a chequered financial and political history. Since independence it has been in default on its debts almost one year in two (hat-tip Prof Rogoff).
On the political side - two royal families, two (or three?) republics, civil war after WWII, military coup in the 1970s. Endless infantile face-offs with Turkey. And a thoroughly corrupt political elite today.
One wonders how anyone could ever have thought their debt was value at yields of around 4%….
496 laurenceallen
The protestors will just stroll down to the German Embassy, get a loan, then buy a new flag to burn.
Its sicklical.
491. Clegg wants to raise basic pay for squaddies by about 8K a year. How is he going to pay for this policy without increasing the defence budget considerably? There are 68,000 privates etc. in the Army, Navy and RAF. To raise their salary by £8k would cost £544 million. One would also have to raise the pay off all the other ranks too.
It is a good political question by Clegg and it is a scandal that Armed Forces pay have lagged behind emergency services pay for so long, but to ask for higher pay without allocating the MoD more money is disingenous in the extreme.
486 scrapheap exactly correct. GB as usual was looking to score points and stomped all over the consensus. Polly had this to say:
Sure enough, it was too good to be true. Gordon Brown, eager for an eye-catcher for his party conference speech, made an extravagant promise of free personal care at home for all those with “critical” needs. It blew the green paper out of the water by offering what the green paper and most experts agreed was impossible
Re 500. Now what was I saying about shallow sound bites……
“I think even if Gordon started tearing up his notes, throwing projectiles and crying floods while shouting “its not f***** fair, that f****** toff has it too easy” Lloyd would still give him, just, the upper hand.”
Well, we had the memorable “Hague won easily, therefore he was rubbish and Harman won”.
I had underestimated Cameron’s ability to make cheap jibes at the expense of the elderly. The £20000 levy is only one proposal in the green paper and to try and frighten the elderly is beyond contemp.At present long term care often results in homes being sold and all the estate being used to fund this care. The £20000 insurance scheme has to be better than this. Yes some people may not need this but this is the case with all public funding schools,hospitals etc. To place a lie on a poster is again a grave mistake on behalf of the Tories who only have negative sound bites but no positive policies. Cameron is looking less and less like a PM in waiting.
Lilly what about the tory scheme whereby a one off payment can be made on a voluntary basis?
Why didn’t Brown outright say that there is no way the 20k nightmare of an idea was being considered?
Sorry if this has already been posted but surely this has nothing to do with the Lib Dems
Surely its about making the tories stick up for first past the post. After all if Brown gets more seats and the tories get more votes, they can hardly complain as they have spent the last 6 weeks justifying that system!
What do people think?
511 in a “serious” post you shouldn’t try and do humour definitely a “grave mistake”
477. JSFL, what is your point here, you trying to say that any legal party that got elected by a democratic vote , could then be disbarred because some people did not like them.
501
Even Burnham’s statement is next to useless.
Time and again, this government has said something is not under serious consideration only for that measure (or a measure so close to it as makes no difference) to surface a year or two later.
In Australia, Labour (ALP) wants first past the post because while they get a lot of First Preferences, under AV they get few Second and Third Preferences and non-Labour parties tend to edge them out most of the time.
Gordon Brown is so hapless that if AV ever came in, it would probably represent the demise of Labour and the visible increase in other parties (Greens, UKIP and yes, the BNP) - although not initially in number of MPs.
Gordon Brown thinks the Liberals are centre left and would give their Second Preferences to Labour. In practice, people vote tactically against the party they least like. A Conservative in Newcastle will vote Liberal because he hopes Labour will not get in. Under AV he votes 1-Conservative ; 2-Liberal - 3 - Labour.
Given that nothing Gordon Brown does ever works properly, why should AV work the way he hopes?
I do hope Nick Palmer pops in to explain this new death tax idea.
A few weeks ago he explained that very few people North of Potters Bar would have to sell the family house when its oldest inhabitant shuffles off. Now his party proposes and refuses to rule out making every ordinary family (i.e. the ones that don’t have twenty grand lying around in cash) dispose of the house.
When you die your family have to give the first £20k of your estate to HMG, what fecking clown thought that one up? And Brown refuses to rule it out! Madness, utter madness.
What is the owner-occupier rate in England? Isn’t it 70%? Vote for me and 70% of you will be worse off to the tune of £20K. Hummmm…. not good. But it gets worse.
Mr. Smith dies, HMG says give us £20k. So widow Smith has to sell the house and move into somewhere smaller (buying and selling property costs serious money these days and HMG gets a cut from stamp duty and VAT on solicitors etc.), or go into social housing. Then, as must happen, widow Smith joins the heavenly choir and HMG is back for another £20K. Family Smith are now down forty-thousand pounds plus, even though their parents may have never needed long term care.
Brown refuses to rule this out. He is bonkers.
AV - good new for the LDs.
Why? Publicity. The problem for the third party has always been media profile for them and their policies.
JGB has pushed change in the voting system in to play. This is one of the LD’s USPs.
Does it matter that it is AV rather than STV?
To us on here, yes as we are political animals who understand the difference and can critique the differences with FPTP.
To the general populace? No as the message is change to the voting system (and a proxy to change to the political system).
I would expect the LDs to go up in the polls as a result (famous last words…)
496 - Godwin’s Law by proxy
“Well a certain German democracy didn’t, did it? And these days it is far too easy for people to be influenced by shallow sound bite politics rather than looking deeply into what parties offer”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic#Elections_of_July_1932
The highest level of support that H1tler got was 37%, which meant that he did not gain power through the ballot box. He got it by abolishing parliament and making himself Chancellor.
If the German elections in 1932 had been held under FPTP he’d ahve won a landslide.
Sorry - no cigar.
Twitter - Charlie Whelan
“Cameron and the Tories clearly want a dirty negative election campaign. #pmqs”
I would have thought that Charlie would have been made of sterner stuff being Brown’s spin merchant for so long? Wasn’t he on McBride’s mailing list?
59 David - “Robin Hood Tax?” As far as we know RH did not steal from the dead! Maybe “Robbing Hood Tax” is better?