How many of these will be blue when the results come in?
January 27th, 2010
York Outer - 0.44% (Lab 27%)
Romsey & Southampton N: 0.46% (Lab 10.9%)
Cheltenham: 0.66% (Lab 11.8%)
Eastleigh: 1.12% (Lab 21.1%)
Westmorland & Lonsdale: 1.7% (Lab 7.8%)
Hereford & N Herefordshire: 2.4% (Lab 10.2%)
Carshalton & Wallington: 2.93% (Lab 17.3%)
Taunton Deane: 3.3% (Lab 12.1%)
Chippenham: 4.7% (Lab 16.8%)
Leeds NW: 5% (Lab 31.9%)
Torbay: 6% (Lab 14.5%)
Sutton & Cheam: 6.2% (Lab 11.8%)
Camborne & Redruth: 7.1% (Lab 25.6%)
Richmond Park: 7.1% (Lab 9.25%%)
Cheadle: 7.4% (Lab 9.9%)
Portsmouth S: 8.0% (Lab 22.4%)
Southport - 9.2% (Lab 12.8%)
Newton Abbott: 10.5% (Lab 11.4%)
Brecon & Radnorshire: 10.2% (Lab 15%)
Devon North: 10.7% (Lab 8.9%)
St Austell & Newquay: 12.4% (Lab 13.8%)
Mid Dorset & N Poole: 13.1% (Lab 10.1%)
Oxford W & Abingdon: 13.4% (Lab 15.9%)
Are these where Cameron’s majority will be decided?
There’s little doubt that the weekend marginals poll for the News of the World from ICM was great news for the Tories. For it backed up an earlier marginals poll late last year from YouGov that suggested that the blues were doing quite a bit better in LAB>CON marginals than the national voting intention polls.
But what about the LD>CON marginals listed above - all of which the seat calculators suggest that the Tories need to take to get an overall majority? But how many will actually go?
For ICM suggests that the Tories need to take a fair whack of them if Dave is to get his working majority - and, of course, different considerations other than the LAB-CON national swing might apply
Although we’ve had polls of LAB>CON marginals the only data we have on the LD>CON situation dates back to last September’s PolticisHome poll of 238 marginals with a sample of more than 33,000 people.
That suggested that Clegg’s party stood to lose only nine of the 63 seats it “notionally” got at the 2005 election. There was some argument at the time over the form of questioning that was deployed but the overall picture did not look as positive for the blue team as they might have hoped.
My understanding is that CCHQ is expecting about ten gains from the Lib Dems - so many of the seats above might not go blue. That means, of course, that they have to to better elsewhere to reach the initial target of 117 gains.
I am pleased to say that a PB/Angus Reid poll is in preparation to look at this precise issue and we hope to be reporting in mid-February.
If you are into seat betting the good news is that Ladbrokes now have their markets back up in an easy to check format. They’ve got prices on 368 of the 650 seats - which is impressive.
There’s also seat betting from Bet365, 
as well as Betfair.
Mike Smithson
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All of them!
1, and Morley & Outwood (with any luck).
About half
Mike: There are also constituency markets at Will Hill and SkyBet.
None of ‘em
Mid-Dorset and N.Poole the Libdems will hold.
Torbay, 50/50 but think on balance they’ll hold it.
I hope I’m wrong, but the 10 seats that you say CCHQ expect to get sounds about right to me.
That’s based on previous experience of fighting Lib Dems and, if things have changed since Cameron became leader, then I wouldn’t have seen that.
Logic says that they will be difficult to win though.
Btw, if Ladbrokes now have 368 individual seat markets, it’s disappointing not to see Penistone & Stocksbridge amongst them.
Any chance Shadsy?
I’d say fourteen, almost none of them easily:
York Outer
Romsey and Southampton North
Cheltenham
Hereford and N Herefordshire
Carshalton and Wallington
Taunton Deane
Chippenham
Torbay
Sutton and Cheam
Cheadle
Newton Abbott
Camborne and Redruth
Brecon and Radnorshire
Devon North
More than one but fewer than most of them
No more than 4
Not very many.
And I think its inceasingly likely that the Tories will lose Eastbourne to the Lib Dems
8 Cookie - Certainly those 14 look likely, although in the nature of things they probably won’t all go blue.
I’d also add Richmond Park as quite likely. I think punters have misunderstood the particular nature of the constituency.
As a stab, I would guess York Outer, Romsey & Southampton, Cheltenham, Westmorland, Hereford, Taunton, Torbay and Camborne & Redruth.
Based on the Lib Dem struggles in the local council elections in the south west I think some of their Cornish seats are in trouble. I might add Truro and Falmouth to the list. Outside the West Country, the Libs should be able to squeeze the Labour vote, in the south west I think the Labourites may just stay at home while some Lib voters will conclude that the Tories are the best chance of getting rid of Brown.
This will be one of the most fascinating sub-stories to the election. We know how the Tories will play Lib-Con marginals (vote yellow, get Brown), but how will the Libs play it? Will the focus be on squeezing the Labour vote or on holding on to their flaky Con voters?
Awaiting the SOTU speech this evening, rumors abound. We are told that Obama will emphasize ‘jobs, jobs, jobs’ and will announce a ’spending freeze’, which excludes defense, TARP and Stimulus both current and future, entitlements, and ….you get the point: it’s a stunt. Having put up spending so much so fast that we are facing a yawning deficit in the trillions, he’s decided (sort of) that we shouldn’t spend more than we are. What a nice chap.
Also apparently a bank tax - but not on bonuses, as trailed. Rumor has it that it is a tax on all loans from banks with capitalizations over $5 billion. This will either increase the cost of loans, or reduce the amount loaned, or possibly both. Either way a brilliant strategy to help the economy recover - not.
Also, we are told in hushed whispers, meet ObamaMan, stout defender of the middle classes. (Remember last week he was trying to increase the taxes of said class, plus taxes on medical devices, savagely raid the Medicare and Medicaid budgets to bring another 10-12 million people into the health care fold?) Now he has apparently seen the light, and having now been hit round the side of the head by a 2 x 4 three times, in VA, NJ, and MA, he has at last gotten the message: no more spending, no big government. So (again according to rumors) he will be giving tax credits to smaller businesses to help them get back on track and hire people.
At the same time, it seems from reading the same press that only recently was fawning over the Messiah himself (and boy has that disappeared in a hurry!), it seems that Scott Brown, lately elected Senator from Massachusetts, will soon be president, and can cure cancer, save the whales (get the whole set) and the polar bears, and bring about world peace.
The rumor mill and news networks are not forthcoming on what Obama will say about heath care reform. Every time he talks about it support drops.
One other snippet I learned today - after every president’s first SOTU speech, their personal ratings drop about 1.5% on average. That’s just the first one - subsequent ones mean POTUS can either gain or lose.
So will all or any of this come to pass this evening in the SOTU speech? Who knows - but Obama is scrambling to find some way to make himself relevant again, and get back in touch with the country and pary from which he has become so completely detached.
What happens in LD seats at a time when there’s a big swing in the polls is one of those great unkowns that makes the coming GE fascinating.
Personally I think the LDs are in for a shock, but nobody really knows.
Chilcott may have revived the dead parrot party a little. But Clegg needs to up his game.
Given that this is a change election, I am sure that many will prefer to vote blue rather than yellow.
15 we’re in for a shock? So you’re predicting significant gains for us, then?
Is tactical unwind asymmetric?
In Lib Dem held seats, I expect:
* Lib Dem inclined voters will still vote Lib Dem. There will be fewer LD->Tory switchers
* Labour inclined voters will still vote Lib Dem in the same numbers, if not more so than in 2005.
* Tory voters will be slightly less motivated than in Lab/Con marginals.
This could well save a few LD seats against the swing, even with a well motivated Tory vote.
The total amount of seats lost clearly depends on the campaign, because the margins are so tight. If Iraq features strongly, this may also help the LDs.
I mean big swing *to* the tories of course. Hasn’t happened since 83 and the LDs didn’t exist then.
Theres also
Solihull, (15.7%) 11/8 Lib Dem
Somerton and Frome (10.6%) 11/10 Lib Dem
I’d say of the fourteen the one I’d be surest of is Cheadle - but that’s because it’s the one I know best. The Conservatives don’t have to convert many people; they only have to get the non-voting Tories from 2001 and 2005 out to vote.
I liked their old MP (Patsy Calton); she had a lot of personal support and sympathy for her illness which initially passed on to her successor (Mark Hunter). At the same time, the Tories fought a quite inept series of campaigns.
I can’t imagine Mark Hunter has the same personal level of support -(though I’m possibly generalising from myself here; I don’t like him much) and I can’t imagine the Tories will be quite so useless next time around.
Think Portsmouth S might be difficult to take. Mike Hancock is well known & popular locally (compare with the Lab Portsmouth N MP, who doesnt have the same - for want of a better word - celebrity)
The Tories will probably get Torbay, there are an aweful lot of capitalists down here. It might be easier if Nick Bye hadn’t been in charge when the mess of Rock Walk and the seafront of Torquay marina happened so Adrian Sanders does have a chance, but overall I think that Marcus Wood will get it.
21 - Cookie.
After their behaviour over the last few years, Cheadle Tories are unlikely to persuade all their members to vote Tory.
Sutton and Cheam will turn blue as the Tory ground activity is astonishing and far outmusters anything the LDs can throw at it.
Not so sure about C&W although on paper should be easier.
Not as many activists though.
In the South West, Lisbon is surely a big problem for the yellows.
20 Those 2 are notionally Conservative on the new boundaries , though there has been a later minor boundary change putting 300 odd voters from Somerton into Wells which by my calculations puts it back into the LibDem column by fewer than 10 votes .
25 - They’ll hold Lisbon West but struggle in Lisbon Outer.
There is NO way the Tories will take Westmorland. Tim Farron is well liked, hard working and votes for the locals even over his own whip (EU etc) I see him as a future LD leader when they get ridd of clegg
The LD’s have also decimated the tories locally in council elections and see swings TO THEM from Con in recent times. They topped the Euro poll for LD vote in a Euro election! Local tories here know they can’t win - the association I hear is in chaos. They were in ’special measure’ only a year or so ago
I used to be a conservative voter and know quite a lot of local tories….they picked a LDN banker which was a silly move too.
Of course the one that’s not on the list is Winchester… Wouldn’t be as much of a surprise as the swing suggests for the Torys to take it back.
26 - If the male Rees Mogg was in that one it’d definitely be a Lib Dem seat, as it is it’s touch ang go I’d have thought.
27 Vencer aqui! Gráfico de barras. Uma corrida de dois cavalos.
24 That’s why the Libdems have gained 2 seats from the Conservatives in Sutton since 2006 , too much Conservative activity that reminds people why they vote LibDem .
23 - you think Cheadle will stay yellow Tim? Cheadle Tories will walk across hot coals to vote against this government right now. They thought they hated Tony, but now Gordon’s here they’re finding out that what they felt about Tony was just a mild contempt. The behaviour of the Conservative Party here is almost a sideshow - people just want to vote against Gordon in the strongest possible terms.
This is a really good topic. I’m bored of thinking about Labour - we know most of the Labour marginals have been written off. The fight between Con and Lib is much more of an unknown.
I’d say more than 6, but less than 8.
Approximately.
32 Cheadle Tories will walk across hot coals
They won’t walk across underfloor heating to vote for that local party, I think the bookies have this one right.
Lib Dems will lose Somerton/Frome. People will and are very angry at the governement in the South West.
33 - Southport is a cracking Lib Dem bet.
I’d say 15-18 of these will go blue. A lot of pretty tight results though - Tory majorities to increase in most cases in 2014.
As we’re political geeks, it is not surprising that some of the comments above are starting to focus on candidates, local associations, parish by elections and the like.
99% of the population couldn’t give a monkeys about such things. Do well to remember that.
31-Mark so how are you goung to handle the activist stretch that is going to occur on May 6th.
Bit different to by-elections.
People on the doorstep when you put it to them that a vote for a LD is a vote for Brown are tending to agree.
I refer you back to the London mayorals.Remember what happened.
The whole of Sutton ,that is every ward voted Tory.
Look what happens when the voters are incentivised.
I can tell you right now, Leeds North West will still be LibDem after the election, unfortunately.
25. If Adrian Sanders in Torbay trys to big up the EU it will backfire on him, however since Brixham isn’t in the Torbay constituency it won’t be quite as bad as if it was. The CFP is not going to be very popular over there at all! As it is Brixham is in the Totness constituency which is pretty solidly Tory, despite Totness itself being the centre of hippy-dom in Devon. This is going to be a problem for the yellows in other Devon and Cornwall constituencies since most are exposed to farming and fishing, areas which the EU has completely messed up. Quite a lot of the little hotels in Torquay and Paignton make quite a bit from the language schools but the area as a whole is not going to be too enamoured with the EU.
Hopefully about 20 of them
No doubt at this moment bar cahrts are exploding in LibDem offices the length and breadth of the UK at me uttering such heresay
A brilliant little nugget
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100023956/want-to-get-ahead-with-the-cameroonians-learn-eton/
35 -
- we’ll see. I’ve not seen the odds but I’m assuming from what you say that the Lib Dems are favourites? If that’s the case then betting on the Tories sounds good value to me - I’d say a Tory majority of about 1500.
What part of Cheshire are you from, Tim? I’m guessing Wilmslow / Macc area from the geographical topics you tend to pursue.
I would say no more than 10 of those will go blue. The poll on politicshome showed that 8 would be lost to the Tories in the South West but that was conducted at a time when the Lib Dems were pretty much ignored by the media (I think it was before their conference). So, assuming that they could make up 2 or 3 points in the polls, I think it will be hard for the Tories to really be losing as many seats in the south west.
Not that it will make any difference to this pantomime debate (I see Tim is on a mission to be pantomime dame of the year - ‘Oh no they wont’) but currently the indications are that there is a swing of 5.5 to 6% from LD to Con in the national and regional figures since 2005. Consequently, all the seats mentioned could be at risk.
But given that the last bastion of centre left self-respect is the invicibility of these Libdem ‘fortresses’, I’m not even going to make a prediction because I really cannot be bothered reading all over again to all the reasons why the Libdems are going to come out of the election with 70 seats plus……
eastleigh I hope will turn blue (my reason,I can’t fcuking stand chris huhne)
This man was on radio 5 after PMQ’s and all he did was to attack the torie’s,even when the subject was on Iraq (the labour MP must have felt left out)
The man must be thinking that the tories are in power or he his really worried that the tories are going to lay waste to the illiberal democrats
40 “People on the doorstep when you put it to them that a vote for a LD is a vote for Brown are tending to agree”
I think you can safely ignore that. Last night at a CLP meeting people were saying that LDs on the doorstep when asked “would rather wake up to a Labour govt than a Tory one” and would therefore tactically vote Labour. An equally worthless finding IMO.
I suspect they’re just being polite to both teams.
There is no way Westmorland will go blue. The tories have played it wrong time and time again….they picked a London Banker, their association is disarray and they lost the Euro elections to the Lib Dems!! Come on…if you cant win the euros…lol The LD’s swept the board at the May county council elections too and the local Tory association is in disarray…it was in Special measure only a year or so ago.
Tim Farron is well liked and hard working…he even votes for the population and aginst his party (EU votes) I know lots of local tories who have written this area off and are being told to help in Carlisle instead (Lab –Con)
7k majority for Farron
10-12, I’d say.
In Con/Lib Dem contests, in 2005, there was a swing of 0.6% to the Conservatives, in 2005, and they made a net gain of 2.
This time, I’d expect the Conservative vote share to rise by 7-9%, in such seats, in line with the national picture, and the Lib Dems to drop by about 1-2%, with Labour making up the difference.
Of those 23 seats, my model says on current polling the LibDems should hold 14.65 of them.
So at the moment 8 or 9 losses.
The tricky thing is identifying which ones, which is where I defer to local knowledge, although I think there will be surprises in both directions.
I suspect as the polls narrow a bit the LibDems will do a bit better than that.
Guesstimate, 5 or 6 losses.
31. Mark, Sutton’s LibDems recovered just the one seat from the Conservatives in a previously split ward. Timmo is right that the Liberals have a very wide front to try to defend across Sutton & Cheam and Carshalton & Wallington with the council elections likely to be on the same day.
14- There are so many “rumors”, as you say, about the State of the Union speech that I will reserve judgment until he actually delivers it (furious redrafting may be taking place as we speak). The scary thing for Obama is that his own party and his own erstwhile supporters in the mainstream media seem to reject his ideas almost as soon as he offers them (or sometimes before he offers them). I wonder how much of his new “program” will survive the Democratic gauntlet before it even reaches the stage of attempting to include Republicans in anything.
49-Not in London there not.
The animosity that is felt towards Brown in the outer london boroughs is similar to the animosity felt by certain parts of northern england towards Thatcher.
It is this that will motivate.
51
Rubbish
You have ignored swingback of 5%.
Chris A - from previous thread - it is you who are “talking” - actually psting - rubbish. I have counted nine quarters in the last decade where the quarterly GDP figures were revised by 0.4% or more. And quite clearly my post about 87 and 88 figures referred to annualised GDP growth, not quarterly, though I accept that I could have made this clearer.
52 Serious question: If you could, would you bring back George W Bush (and associated loons)?
Re: Masrginals and ICM Poll
I used the UK Poliing Report’s list of top 200 Conservative target seats as my data base. These are split by swing %age (ICM ignored seats that require <4% swing) and defending party. There is also a class for seats which are more of a 3-cornered fight where currently the Conservatives are in third place.
Swing: Seats: Lab: LD: SNP: IND: Cons 3rd
<4% 63 47 13 2 0 1
4%<6% 45 32 8 0 1 4
6%<8% 43 31 8 1 0 3
8%,10% 38 26 9 0 0 3
10%-10.5% 11 9 0 0 0 2
Total 200 145 38 3 1 13
If Mark Senior says 4 then = 8 minimum.
Richmond Park should be safe with St Vince this time but will he stand in 2014 ?
47 - I see what you mean, although personally I think that the Libs could potentially lose up to 10 of those to the Torys, and STILL end up with more than 70 MP’s after the next election. (There are 17 seats which are currently Lab, with LD clearly(ish) in second place (ie more than 5% ahead of the 3rd placed party) and where the Lab lead is less than 15%) - The Libs should be looking at getting 15 of those in a ‘chuck the government out’ election.
48 - This man was on radio 5 after PMQ’s”
Wasn’t Dick Bacon was it? He always likes a good Tory Toff bashing, while himself enjoys spending weekends in the country at like Babington House private members club.
As I think these contests are very difficult to call, but suspect the tories will do very well, I’ll give an example: Eastleigh.
GE 2005
LD - 19,216
Con - 18,648
Lab - 10,238
GE 2001
LD - 19,360
Con - 16,302
Lab - 10,426
GE 1997
LD - 19,453
Con - 18,699
Lab - 14,833
By Election 1994
LD - 24,473
Con - 15,234
Lab - 13,675
GE 1992
LD - 38,998
Con - 21,296
Lab - 15,768
So know you can see why I think the LD-Con battles are a great unknowable that will be fascinating to watch. It’s not about swings, tactical votes, who’s who in local politics, what’s the best leaflet etc.
It’s will, whether, if and how many of those lost 4 million votes turnout and tick the tory box again. I’m hopeful, but far from certain.
at like -> at places like
Dammit I got the 1992 numbers the wrong way around:
GE 1992
Con - 38,998
LD - 21,296
Lab - 15,768
60,nearly good has - gabby logan.
58: ‘Richmond Park should be safe with St Vince this time but will he stand in 2014 ?’
St Vince is Twickers isn’t he?
65. Yes - ignore I’m talking sh&te. I used to date a girl in Richmond park who had a view of the rugby stadium. And I’m thick.
59-But i refer you back to activist stretch and motivation.
Many LDs will not want to campaign against Labour.
They only get out of bed in the morning to bash the Tories.
It is in their DNA
Not seeing West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine in that list which is also a possibility.
58 Ghost - Richmond Park is Susan Kramer. St Vince is next door.
61, 63 ASOD - Yes, Tory vote strike, with the LibDems winning by default but little increase in their absolute numbers. Very typical of 1997 LibDem gains in the South. Like you, I suspect it will be partially reversed this time, although I’d expect Huhne (unpleasant though he is) to hang on in Eastleigh.
Re: Marginals and ICM Poll ctd:
In view of the ICM regional split, I looked at where the Labour target seats are situated by country:
Swing Eng. Wales. Scot.
0<4% 42 4 1
4%<6% 31 0 1
6%<8% 29 1 1
8%<10% 21 4 1
10-10.5 8 1 0
Total 131 10 4
And then by ICM region for Labour Seats assumimg that Midlands includes Wales and North includes Scotland.
Swing South Mids North
0<4% 19 22 8
4<10% 22 37 37
Total 41 59 45
tim @ 25
They’ll hold Lisbon West but struggle in Lisbon Outer.
LOL
56- No, I wouldn’t bring back Bush at this moment. Our politics had reached a stage where the Repubicans needed a period out of power to rediscover their roots and their raison d’etre, while the public needed to be see the reality of Democrats controlling Washington to be able to make the distinction between the Dems as they had successfully marketed themselves and the Dems as they actually are. The last year has served the country very well on both accounts, although it is unfortunate that this recalibration had to happen in such trying times.
68. Or Roxburgh etc. which is an even better bet
61/62 - substantial boundary changes in Eastleigh though. It was a huge seat back in 1992. Many of the ‘lost’ Tory votes have gone to other constituencies not to apathy.
72- “needed to see”
Quick Questions re. Polls, Turnout and Past Voter Weighting.
I guess we’re all expecting a higher turnout in the next GE. Not quite up to peak 1990s levels, but more than 2005,2001.
My questions:
* Is there any evidence for this in the polling data? i.e. people saying they will vote this time, but didn’t last time.
And…
Are the polls handing this in the right way? Do people who say they didn’t vote last time get discarded from the headline figures?
Any thoughts? Could potentially underestimate the Tory vote if we think that there have been Tory votes hibernating since the 1990s. Could also underestimate the Labour vote if there was Labour voter strike in 2005 due to Iraq.
68 Would have though West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine would be more likely to turn SNP rather than Tory.
72 Thanks. It is truly fascinating watching how much stick Obama is getting for the economy and foreign wars, which clearly have nothing to do with him. The GOP seems to have escaped all blame.
Could be an interesting precedent for UK politics.
52 - I’m sure you are right, and that furious consultation, re-drafting etc is going on.
Almost a week after the results in MA, they are still in shock and denial, there is still no agreement among the dems as to how to handle this, what it means to them and their programs, and how they should proceed.
The speech should be an interesting piece of political theatre. Whatever the contents, it should give us a measure of how well Obama the politician is learning his craft.
61. Eastleigh follows the classic LibDem pattern
1994. Sensational by-election win
1997. Hangs on
2001. First time incumbency boost
2005. Loss of incumbency boost, but hangs on
2010. Huhne gets his first time incumbency boost
Eastleigh is a lot safer than it looks, but not impregnable…
76. Jonathan
I guess we’re all expecting a higher turnout in the next GE
There was a thread recently on this and whilst I don’t think anyone said they thought that turnout would go down the views on how much turnout would rise were mixed. For example, I only expect a couple of point rise, others were looking at 65% and a few 70%.
I think most recognise there is no ‘Things can only get better’ feeling this time around and little enthusiasm for politics generally….
80 In Eastleigh in 2005, the Tories (via Conor Burns) threw the kitchen sink at a then unknown Huhne.
Reason suggests it will be held, unless the LDs have a campaign as shambolic as their conference or their 2005 effort. So probably it’s a Con gain.
78- The GOP hasn’t escaped all blame; if they had, they’d be better than tied in the polls with the Dems in terms of party favorable ratings. However, the American people don’t tolerate failure and ineffectiveness, and the only way to spank the governing party in our system is by voting for the other guy (the Republicans, in this case). I must admit, though, that I have been surprised at the rapidity of the GOP comeback. I had thought, like you, that it would take longer and so the Republican victories in New Jersey and Massachusetts in particular came as a bit of a surprise to me.
Jonathon
Good question which is hard to find answers to. The recent Social Attitudes Survey saw a drop in the number of people who considered voting a duty. From that, we can be pretty confident that it won’t get anywhere near the levels of 1992 and before.
1997 had a 70%ish turnout in a change election. The foregone conclusion that was 2001 had 60%ish turnout. In 2005 polls were pretty clear that floaters didn’t think the tories had changed, so no surprise there was only a small % gain there. Iraq was toxic for Labour, but most of those votes went straight to the LDs. Turnout didn’t go up though.
So whether turnout goes up is a pretty big question, as it will be voters who never expressed an opinion in 2001 and 2005.
As such, I’m with Patrick, the bigger the turnout gain the better I think the tories will do.
My guess is somewhere between 65-70%. If I had to be more specific, I would go with 67%. Which equates to approx 2.5 million votes.
Blimey what a busy day it’s been on PB! The last thread was hilarious. I’m feeling punch drunk.
On topic - no idea
And thumbs up to ASOD who pointed out that no one except PB readers or the families of local party members has any interest in local sibling rivalries.
Are any of these seats suffering from serious expenses issues?
81 - I missed the thread on turnout - but I’d expect significantly above 65%, maybe up to 70%. People may be disillusioned with politics but there’s also a) a lot more for them to vote against, b) a profusion of mnior parties giving them something to vote for, and especially c) the prospect of a close election giving the impression that your vote might matter. Turnout tends to be higher the more uncertain the outcome.
Of course, if Labour implode completely between now and May then that might have the effect of painting the election as a foregone conclusion for the Tories, and driving turnout back down again.
61. Huhne’s weakness is that he has yet to come close to the sort of majorities that either his predecessor had initially or even more what the Conservatives have (he hasn’t polled what the Libdems polled in 1992).
There has been a significant dormant pool of vote in Eastleigh since 1997 and if that in the main turned against Huhne then it could be trouble for him.
Apols if posted already - Toenail’s latest blog
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/2010/01/tory_economic_plans.html
FWIW, here is my model’s full list of LibDem seats with their estimated win percentages, based on current polling, adjusted for regional effects and incumbency.
Hereford and South Herefordshire 0%
York Outer 9%
Romsey and Southampton North 10%
Truro and Falmouth 19%
Winchester 22%
solihull
Somerton and Frome 31%
Eastleigh 34%
Cornwall South East 35%
Carshalton and Wallington 40%
Chippenham 40%
Ceredigion 40%
Westmorland and Lonsdale 41%
Cheltenham 48%
Portsmouth South 50%
Harrogate and Knaresborough 51%
Brecon and Radnorshire 51%
Sutton and Cheam 53%
Torbay 55%
Taunton Deane 61%
Southport 62%
Argyll and Bute 76%
Cheadle 77%
Richmond Park 90%
St Austell and Newquay 90%
Cornwall North 91%
Oxford West and Abingdon 92%
Newton Abbott 92%
Devon North 93%
Leeds North West 98%
Cambridge 98%
Colchester 98%
Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk 99%
Mid Dorset and North Poole 99%
Bristol West 99%
Bath 99%
Camborne and Redruth 99%
Lewes 99%
Norfolk North 99%
Manchester Withington 100%
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey 100%
Gordon 100%
Hornsey and Wood Green 100%
Chesterfield 100%
Yeovil 100%
Hazel Grove 100%
Kingston and Surbiton 100%
Montgomeryshire 100%
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 100%
Dunbartonshire East 100%
Sheffield Hallam 100%
Twickenham 100%
Edinburgh West 100%
Birmingham Yardley 100%
Berwick upon Tweed 100%
Southwark North and Bermondsey 100%
Thornbury and Yate 100%
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross 100%
St Ives 100%
Orkney and Shetland 100%
Fife North East 100%
Cardiff Central 100%
Ross Skye and Lochaber 100%
89. Ignore, pressed wrong button!
Waugh hinting that Goldsmith is not coming out of Chilcott well so far
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2010/01/goldsmiths-law-and-american-influences.html
Goldsmith flies to Washington on Feb 10/11 and meets Will Taft IV, the State Dept’s legal adviser, John Bellinger (the National Security Council legal adviser), Judge Gonzales (Bush’s personal counsel), Condi Rice and others. Quite a line up.
It is made crystal clear to him that the Americans never ever intended 1441 to allow the French, Russians or Chinese a veto over further action against Saddam.
At this point, the political context of arcane UN minutiae hits him with overwhelming force. Goldsmith seems to suddenly remember what he says was one of his key ‘tests’ in private practice. “‘Which side of the argument do you want to be on?’ And I took the view I would prefer to be on the side of the argument that a second resolution wasn’t necessary.”
Rod - you missed Solihull’s figure.
So, from the notional 63 LibDem seats, it looks as though we might expect:
8 - 10 losses to the Conservatives (excluding Scotland)
Maybe a net loss of around 2 more in Scotland (to SNP/Con/Maybe Lab)?
Offset by 2-4 gains from amongst: Islington South, Watford, Hampstead & Kilburn, Norwich S, odds and ends
… leaving a final figure of around 53 to 56 for Clegg?
88. It’s like Kevin Keegan critiquing the LBW law.
86. Cookie
18 months ago I thought turnout would be 65-70% but since the expenses scandal, the length and depth of the recession became apparent and the general inability of the political parties to provide anything that people could hang any hope and optimism on I really can’t see a lot of people bothering.
I expect this will be one of the most uninspiring election, the ‘grey’ election certainly in my memory…..
12 - Richard, can you explain further about the ‘particular nature’ of Richmond Park? As a resident, I’m interested. I’ve been getting bombarded with Kramer literature the moment.
86. The most important thing about turnout, is that it shrinks what seems the pure enormity of majorities.
Overturning a 6,000 majority seems a long haul, but when you factor in that a 5% increase in turnout adds 4,000 extra voters.
The last time the Tories won a general election, in 1992 the turnout was 77.8%, the turnout in 2005 61.4. On average thats an extra 12,600 votes per constituency purely as a result of turnout.
95 Why grey? Surely more a case of the blues.
OK, full list
Hereford and South Herefordshire 0%
*Brent Central 2%
York Outer 9%
Romsey and Southampton North 10%
Truro and Falmouth 19%
Winchester 22%
*Solihull 25%
Somerton and Frome 31%
Eastleigh 34%
Cornwall South East 35%
+Dunfermline & West Fife 38%
Carshalton and Wallington 40%
Chippenham 40%
Ceredigion 40%
Westmorland and Lonsdale 41%
Cheltenham 48%
Portsmouth South 50%
Harrogate and Knaresborough 51%
Brecon and Radnorshire 51%
Sutton and Cheam 53%
Torbay 55%
Taunton Deane 61%
Southport 62%
Argyll and Bute 76%
Cheadle 77%
Richmond Park 90%
St Austell and Newquay 90%
Cornwall North 91%
Oxford West and Abingdon 92%
Newton Abbott 92%
Devon North 93%
Leeds North West 98%
Cambridge 98%
Colchester 98%
Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk 99%
Mid Dorset and North Poole 99%
Bristol West 99%
Bath 99%
*Rochdale 99%
Camborne and Redruth 99%
Lewes 99%
Norfolk North 99%
Manchester Withington 100%
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey 100%
Gordon 100%
Hornsey and Wood Green 100%
Chesterfield 100%
Yeovil 100%
Hazel Grove 100%
Kingston and Surbiton 100%
Montgomeryshire 100%
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 100%
Dunbartonshire East 100%
Sheffield Hallam 100%
Twickenham 100%
Edinburgh West 100%
Birmingham Yardley 100%
Berwick upon Tweed 100%
Southwark North and Bermondsey 100%
Thornbury and Yate 100%
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross 100%
St Ives 100%
Orkney and Shetland 100%
Fife North East 100%
Cardiff Central 100%
Ross Skye and Lochaber 100%
*=seat with LibDem MP notionally held by another party
#=by-election gain
On a lighter note: for anyone who likes Vikings, setting fire to things or remote archipelagoes halfway to the Arctic Circle, these pictures will make you as happy as they make me:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/uknews/7083166/Up-Helly-Aa-in-pictures-Viking-festival-in-Lerwick-Shetland-Islands.html
What about Wales? There dont seem to be any welsh seats on this list. Isn’t Lembit in trouble in Montgomery? And might Brecon go blue?
My recollection is that the Lib Dem performance in Con/Lib Dem marginals in 2005 was below par. The decapitation strategy was a damp squib and wikipedia informs me that:
“the Liberal Democrats suffered a net loss of two seats to the Conservative Party”
Now, that was 2005, when the Lib Dems were on the up, and Michael Howard was leader of the Conservatives. In 2010, the Lib Dems are holding steady at best, Cameron is leader of the Conservatives, and we have consistent polling data showing considerable numbers of Lib Dem to Tory switchers.
The Lib Dems may do relatively well, and lose most of their votes in seats where they are not in contention. Or they might not. Personally, I’d be inclined to trust the marginal seats polling data. However, I think there is more chance of the Lib Dems under-performing, rather than over-performing, compared to the polls.
99 - Rod - what are your %’s in that list? Whilst the Libs are good - I don’t think a 100% Majority particularly acheivable (0 votes for all other parties) - clearly I’m missing something
I hope Chris Huhne doesn’t lose his seat
95 Maybe you will have the blues Jonathan but I dount if I will. I say grey because the election will take place in a mood of sombre recognition of what is to follow and i use grey because whatever happens what is to follow isn’t going to make the country happy (thanks to the current incumbents of Government).
Re 105. dount = doubt doh!
103. The percentage is the chance of the LibDems holding the seat, according to “the model”
If you missed it - Darling on Newsnight is something to watch through your fingers.
Paxo is on top form - “Are you seriously telling me that no one in this building [the Treasury] has worked out [insert awkward detail]?”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/newsnight
99. Rod, I’m surprised you have Camborne and Redruth at 99% likely. I know the incumbent is Julia Goldsworthy but she has lost half her seat to the Falmouth/Truro seat so may lose some incumbency basis there. It’s a three way marginal which may help her and I think she will win but I don’t think its 99% likely.
107. So around 14 at 50% or less ?
But PSJ you said they were “routinely adjusted” by that amount. I would describe 9 out of 40 (less than yearly) as occasional rather than routine. Also where are you getting your figures? Data on the ONS site shows in the period 1997 to 2006 the final GDP figures calculated 3 years after the initial estimate differed from that initial estimate by 0.5pp on 3 occasions , 0.4pp on 5 occasions. In 19 quarters (almost half) the initial estimate was spot on or wrong by 0.1pp. The average absolute error is 0.18pp although I will admit it gets rounded up (19 occasions) than down (9 occasions).
Can’t help but be impressed by this Rod. Don’t know how accurate it’ll be but I do like the level of detail and the effort which has gone into it; certainly more effort than the ‘this feels about right’ that went into my list.
96 Archroy - I think that many people not familiar with Richmond assume that Zac Goldsmith will be unpopular because of his privileged background (family trust fund, expensive house, tax affairs organised on basis of professional advice, etc etc). My point is that such considerations are far less important in Richmond than they would be almost anywhere else in the country, given the very high proportion of highly-paid City lawyers, bankers, accountancy partners etc in the borough.
Since you’re a resident, it would be interesting to hear if you think there is any truth in that.
110. At the moment, yes, but if the LibDems put on a point or two that will change for the better.
Three of the six Cornish seats will fall to the Tories. I will put £500 on that, tim.
Rod
I presume your model makes no consideration with regard to turnout? If so, I would broadly agree, with some notable exceptions. (eg Goldsworthy as mentioned above)
Rod Crosby’s list is fascinating. I would have thought that the Lib Dems have a better chance of having an MP for Brent Central after the election than of having one for Mid Dorset & North Poole.
In answer to OGH’s question, seven.
109/112. No model can be perfect, but overall I think it’s on the money.
I agree the Cornwall seats are particularly hard to call due to boundary changes and incumbency effects.
115: SeanT @15:50
Anybody betting with Tim is a fool.
by Mike Smithson January 24th, 2010 at 8:13 pm
Archroy lucky you, but there again you don’t live in a safe seat. My views and those of 70,000 neighbours are ignored
83 - Stars, I’m not sure if this is the beginning of a Republican recovery, or simply a protest vote because the admimistration does not want to listen.
If the admin. continues not to listen then de facto it is the beginning of a recovery for Republicans.
Looking at coverage of a Dem ‘Town Hall’ meeting in southern NJ. Questions had to be submitted in advance, he chose what he wanted to answer, and there were no plans for any dialog with the audience. So the dems still don’t get the ‘listening’ bit. Needless to say, with the Tea Party people present, that didn’t last for long, and the rep. was hammered. Even the guy on Fox News said he deserved kudos for merely showing up, and the tea party man agreed.
If the tea party movement - which is still growing and has long outstripped the ‘right wing nut job’, ‘Unamerican’ labels the left tried to skewer it with - can find common cause with the Republicans, (which seems surprisingly problematic), then this really could be a serious recovery.
117. Your opinions are as valid as the model’s with respect to individual seats, perhaps more so. It’s only a machine after all…
But in the aggregate total the machine will probably beat you!
119. Well, we’ll all know after the election!
I sympathize about Cornwall: I know it quite well, as it is where my parents-in-law live, and it is slightly bizzare that it is, currently, entirely Yellow. Given the losses the Lib suffered there in the council elections and the fact that the Libs have been running Cornwall for a long time, I can’t help but think there will be at least two Tories in Cornwall after the election but I can’t say where they will be as there are good reasons for saying the Libs will hold all their seats but just can’t see that happening. The damn will surely break somewhere?
99 Rod - No Watford?
115 - Sean, I don’t have the sort of money to lose that a successful author or subsidised farmer may have. But I’ll happily take you up on that bet if we make it £250. Happy to provide details to Mike for recorded bets.
The January retail sales figures are just dismal. I know they’ve been mentioned but they are worth dwelling on, because they make Double Dip that much more likely.
This MUST figure in Brown’s election plans. It would be suicidal to go into an election two weeks after it is confirmed we have slipped back into recession.
OK sure maybe a few people would buy the Don’t Let The Tories Make It Worse meme, but I suggest most of these people are in secure asylums.
95% of the country would be horrified and desperate, and they would punish Brown severely, the man who promised an end to boom and bust, giving us the biggest recession in history, and then another recession straight after. Labour could be totally wiped out in most of England.
This MUST be in Brown’s mind, right now. Go in March and avoid a possible destruction of Labour for a generation. It all depends on how possible it is, that double dip…
113 - Pretty much agree with that estimate, but the local LibDems are still desperate to push it.
The latest LibDem news-sheet (now calling itself ‘Richmond Park Journal’) has a full page “Conservative campaign in CRISIS”, pushing the non-dom issue, with the classic “many traditional Conservative supporters are saddened by the continuing reveletions and are questioning whether Mr Goldsmith is the right person to represent the area”.
Sounds just like some of the astroturfers on pb!
126. Sorry, but my remark was aimed exclusively at tim. We have history in this department.
123 - In aggregate, I’m not far off the total that your machine came to, though I expect a few more losses than its average predictions would suggest. In detail, I vehemently disagree with many of the predictions that it has thrown out.
127. There are no January retail sales figures, only a survey of retailers.
127
Not a chance of March..
Requires courage and a decision.
89 So anything above 50% is a hold and anything blow is aloss?
If so I think you are way out on Winchester which will be neck and neck and so should be 50%.
125. Watford is not currently a Lib Dem seat, is it?
But since you ask, the model currently gives the LibDems just a 6% chance of a gain…
Of course, the model cannot know about the “special circumstances” in that seat, and makes no allowance for he fact the Tories start in third place. So Watford will no doubt be one of the model’s poorer estimates…
Brown would simply tell the electorate “You’re wrong! We aren’t in recession. It needs 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth to be a recession. I say no return to boom and bust!”
Whatever the multifarious pseudo-excuses people trot out for voting for the The yellow-tinged Tesco Value Labour Party, are they really going to bother with the yellow peril when a change of government is at hand?
Since we’re seeing from polls that Lib Dem voters now split 2:1 for Dave, I suspect there’s a good chance that LD support will melt away in these seats and the Tories romp home.
129. Sean, which Cornish seats do you think will fall? I think St Austell and Newquay is very likely, then I think Truo and Falmouth has a good chance, although Falmouth has more students now than in 2005 which may help its vote there. I think St Ives is nailed on Lib Dem and would think Goldsworthy will win Camborne and Redruth. That leaves North Cornwall and South-East Cornwall, both of which are winnable for the Conservatives but are a big ask.
134 Rod - Ah, I misunderstood the scope of your list. What other LibDem gains does your model show as likely?
127 - as against all that though, if he goes in May rather than March he gets an extra two months being Prime Minister. So May it is. Or possibly June.
Having said that, Gordon seems to HATE being Prime Minister. It makes hmi angry. Not like being chancellor when he could pose smiling in front of all the gold he was about to sell off at its lowest price…
108 Plato - Darling was stressed and his answers often contradictory (which Paxman picked up). I haven’t seen a senior minister so ill at ease for some time. Obviously he didn’t believe the line he was taking.
122- I meant comeback only in the sense of winning elections (not a bad metric for a comeback, by the way!). I take it that you mean comeback in the sense of building positive support, which of course has not yet crystallized. In terms of the mid-term elections, it may not much matter though (these elections will be a referendum on Democratic leadership in Washington, and not much else).
Additionally, the Republican House and Senate leadership will probably craft some sort of legislative program to take into the mid-terms, much like the Contract with America of 1994, and that will serve as their positive agenda to present to the voters. However, a comeback that rests on positive public support of a Republican agenda will probably only come if a presidential candidate is able to sell it in 2012.
…
The Tea Party movement is an ideological movement, not a party, so it is natural that there would be tension between them and Republican leadership. Republicans have to hope that the anger on the right directed at the Dems is so strong as to subsume any conflicts. If the tea partiers run a few candidates as a reaction against liberal Republicans, it won’t be a big deal. Even in 1994, there were quite a few right-wing protest candidacies in a number of races, but they didn’t matter because of the magnitude of the anti-Democratic wave. But if the Tea Party movement fields a large number of protest candidates, it could help the Dems tremendously.
132. You are correct but that is Brown’s best chance. If he goes for May 6th (exactly 100 days away now!) then he runs the risk that the Q1 GDP figures, due on at the end of April will show a return to negative growth. That would totally destroy Labour’s campaign message about they are the only ones who can take Britain out of recession.
The choice facing Brown is a scale of defeat of either 1979 or 1983 levels. If he goes in March then it’s the former, and if he’s lucky a chance of a hung parliament, if he goes long then there’s a risk of a heavier defeat which will take Labour years to recover from.
135 - The sad thing is, there is little doubt in my mind, that would be his strategy!
133. “So anything above 50% is a hold and anything below is a loss?”
No, not at all. Have you never thrown a six or drawn a pair at poker?
It’s an estimate of the chance of the LibDems holding the seat. Nothing more than that. Of course the more extreme the odds the harder it is to defeat chance, but it is never impossible…
I think the LDs will win 10-15 seats from Labour and lose 10-15 seats to the Tories.
In case anyone’s interested, here’s my spreadsheet again which combines the Tories’ Top 200 targets with the latest count information:
http://tinyurl.com/ye6vutz
135. Flashback, I wonder what Brown’s reaction really will be if Q1 shows negative growth? Will Labour really try to say we arent in a double dip? Will they talk about a downturn again or will they just blame it on post Christmas. It will be fascinating to see how Brown handles such news if it comes. Could make the difference between a Labour loss and a catastrophe.
137. I’d say SE Cornwall was one of the Tories’ better chances
test
133. “So anything above 50% is a hold and anything below is a loss?”
No, not at all. Have you never thrown a six or drawn a pair at p0ker?
It’s an estimate of the chance of the LibDems holding the seat. Nothing more than that. Of course the more extreme the odds the harder it is to defeat chance, but it is never impossible…
Shock Horror!
government chief scientist calls for honesty in climate science….
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1246404/Top-climate-change-adviser-John-Beddington-calls-honesty-scientists-global-warming-debate.html
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7003622.ece
142
Remember Gordon will choose the worst option… so June it is..(by your reasoning)
Good headlines in The Times for the Great Leader,
“Brown skips PMQs to remain at Ulster talks”
followed by
“Brown leaves empty handed from Ulster talks”
Right so that the economy saved, NI sorted, just international terrorism to defeat, should only take a 2hrs meeting to sort that one….
141 - agree with you 100% Stars
I think the Tories are going to grind the Lib Dems into the Dust!
Not only are Labour doomed - DOOMED to defeat but the Lib Dems are heading for the three - wheeler!
115 - Wonders never cease.
You’re on.
150. I’ve been saying May 6th for nearly 2 years and I still think it will be that!
There’s no point trying to go on past the local elections date as Labour will suffer another pasting by voters fed up with the government clinging on. There’s no point either trying to put the locals back until June 3rd. Last year there was consensus about running the locals with the Euros, 2001 was a one off due to foot and mouth. Trying to delay the locals will look like he’s running scared!
“What other LibDem gains does your model show as likely?”
Aww, do I have to give all my secrets away in one go?
Can’t a fellah make a little profit from his labours?
156 - You can take it out of your massive profit on predicting a Hung Parliament against the crowd.
155.
“2001 was a one off due to foot and mouth”
If another foot and mouth outbreak could be organised, is it possible that this Parliament could be extended for another few months?
148: Your data is effectively a series of binomial data (ie a yes/no probability of winning), so you should be able to work out the ‘expected’ number of seats. Yes=1 No=0, and using the probabilty.
I assume thats where your 14.65 held seats figure comes from.
(hopefully i got the terminolgy right, it’s been 10years since my degree)
100. Ooh! Up Helly Aa! That brings back nostalgic memories for anyone of my approximate age group, on the grounds that there was a documentary article about it on Blue Peter in about 1980.
For the same reason, I’ve always been rather fond of the story of the Brontes of Haworth; I have always regarded the five Bronte sisters and one brother as being of equal staus, and it was only many years later when I well into adulthood that I became aware that ignoramuses and ordinary people often think of them as three sisters, and forget about the two others (and Branwell) who died when they were younger.
46 the Megapoll last September was taken in the week before and during the LibDem conference so they could not have had more TV coverage unless Nick Clegg and Vince Cable announced they were going to live together.
Tony Blair coming back to campaign for labour at the next election. Not only Tony, but also John Prescott and David Blunkett.
I think Mandelson regards this as a “Good Thing”….
So Gordon Brown now has utility for Labour - he makes Tony, John and David look good.
157 Richard
Fwiw, we’re very close on probable total of LD seats but it’s very difficult to be specific about which ones. As a general statement I would say they are doing badly in Scotland and parts of Wales and the South Wales, but quite well in some other regions; so, I can see them losing Torbay but winning Burnley, for example.
They are good for betting on individual constituencies, but not the spreads.
re 94. Solihull is a notional CON hold even though the old seat was won by the LDs in 2005.
117. “I presume your model makes no consideration with regard to turnout?”
No, I have not found turnout to be a reliable predictor, and in any case we don’t know what the tournout is going to be, do we?
re 167. Something good’s got to happen in Burnley
162-Wasn’t the line being peddled, not sure by whom, recently that the election should be postponed as it was a case of national emergency or something? Perhaps they can put through an Enabling Act while they are at it.
166: Jeeze..it’s like a clapped out band which no one likes anymore reforming….
Let’s hear it for Tony, John, David, Gordon and Mandy….better known as ‘New Labour’, performing their hits, ‘whiter than white’, ‘No more Boom and Bust’ ‘I’m a pretty straight guy’, and ‘lets invade Iraq!’
Available in a bargin bin near you..
168. But it has a Libdem MP, first elected in 2005. That makes all the difference in the world. [the notional shift was fractional anyhow]
S&S : “Republican victories in New Jersey and Massachusetts in particular came as a bit of a surprise to me.”
We know, Zogby
170
154. Yeah, you think you’re on? You think I really meant that?
You think I really intend to bet £500 with a festering maggot like YOU: a proven welcher, a known liar, a lieutenant-general in the Royal Welch Cowards, the bombardier of blowhard?
BWAHAHAHAHA. HAhahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAH
No bet. There is no bet. I was joking. I just wanted to get you excited, I wanted to tease you in the most pathetic and juvenile of ways. And you bought it. You really thought I’d give you a bet. You really thought I regard your morality as being higher than that of the average kitchen cockroach.
Here’s news for your News Sense, tim. No one is ever going to bet with you ever gain. CAUSE YOU ARE A WELCHER.
Stuff that up your Tupac, farmy farmer.
166 PtP (Was that in reply to my post at 95?)
Good value on the LibDem bands 50-59 (5/2 with WH, Bet365 or VC), maybe with a small saver on 40-49 (or 44-49 BetFair) in case the incumbency effect doesn’t materialise as much as expected.
61
Yes I remember those numbers - Huhne has maxed out his support at 19,000 and change. And they all slavishly vote every time, even in the fabled council elections which Senior and Smithson are on about constantly.
Eastleigh tories need ONLY get out their voters and they will win. They have a chance in a GE, local elections are far less interest to the tory vote it seems. I’d love it if he lost - pompous pr1ck that he is.
176 - Now now, play nice, poor tim has had a very bad day so far.
163. Yes, the same method employed by Curtice and Firth in 2005. Although they of course had the benefit of regression equations derived from a 30,000 exit poll on the day…
167 - Peter, I’ve emailed you re. the Cornwall bet with SeanT
176 - Lonely Thai hotel rooms aren’t good for the health, but you made your bet.
180: Well it’s a pretty simple straightforward method. Of course entirely dependent on the probabilities one wants to assign.
re 165. That’s not entirely correct. There was a two day over-lap with the LD conference during fieldwork lasting 12 days.
The experience with online polls is that the vast majority of respondents fill their forms in pretty soon after getting them so I would guess that only about 5% of the sample responded during the conference.
178, If Huhne does lose he can always get a job on 5 live as a presenter. He’d fit right in!
182: Again as no side had any intention of honouring the bet, surely no bet existed in the first place.
186. If tim loses he will claim he was refering to the 2014 election.
172 - I was thinking that Tony’s trio (David, John and Tony himself) could best serve the electors by singing the Who classic:
Don’t get fooled again
No, no!
YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss
Re Camborne & Redruth. The model gives the Tories a 1% chance, Labour zero…
This model would also come in extremely useful in targetting for Labour and the Tories, as well as the LibDems, but they’re not getting it, unless of course they want to pay me…
Yes, of course. Good luck in turning the remark “I’ll put £500 on that, tim” into a f*cking BET. I could have been putting £500 on your tiny head, or the nearest hooker, on the small cobweb that has formed between your hand and your laptop as you comment for the 28th hour running.
You were teased, you were had, you were joshed, you were provoked, I was juvenile, I was naughty, I was feeling playful, I wanted to annoy you, pointlessly, and I wanted to underline the fact that you are a WELCHER with whom NO ONE WILL EVER BET AGAIN BECAUSE YOU DON’T HONOUR BETS. Sorry.
Of course you could always appeal to the House of Lords. Maybe sue for hurt feelings.
Is there a “normal” AR poll due soon? (ie not the special poll of marginals).
Can we have a rule that no bet is valid until both sides have registered it with PtP?
183. It’s quite sophisticated actually. A lot turns on the variation of change in the vote of the three parties. LibDems usually have the highest variation, Tories the lowest…
I had a £100 bet with tim two days ago,SeanT. I have been trusting and mistrusting people all my working life and whereas I trust tim implicitly, I wouldn’t trust you with a shilling.
Given the current picture suggests the Tories are making solid progress against labour and relatively little amongst the lib dems, are the Tories worried about losing any seats to the Lib Dems? Letwin etc.
174- D’accord, ca y est! I’m buying my ticket to Thailand now, and I have your intrade picture…
I have been considering the importance of the mid-term elections re: Obama’s re-election chances, and reviewed the fates of the presidents since FDR. The startling fact: no president since FDR has both 1) maintained control of Congress throughout his first full term in office and 2) been re-elected. There were three presidents who achieved the first item (Truman, Johnson, and Carter), all three were constitutionally eligible for another term, and all three failed (the first two were so unpopular that they didn’t even try to run for re-election). To put it differently, if the Dems keep control of Congress and Obama is re-elected, he will be the first president to manage the feat since FDR.
Labourt shortlist for Makerfield:
Gill Boston (from Macclesfield)
Emma Hoddinot (town councillor in Beverley)
Yvonne Fovargue (councillor in Warrington; husband works for McCartney)
Farmida Bi (chairman of the British Progressive Muslims, lawyer, she tried in other seats coming second in Walthamstow)
Penny Bould (Warwickshire county councillor)
Sonia Sodha (from think-tank Demos)
172 If Tony Blair campaigns he will be followed by Stop the War and other demonstrators, hands dipped in red paint, so it’ll have to be under tight security with anyone he talks to strictly vetted beforehand. Not at all helpful I would have thought to Mandelson’s “we are the real change” strategy nor to Brown’s hopes.
145 Labour’s strategy was clear early last year, then it was to play up the dangers of a recession and make Gordon Brown “a safe pair of hands” who would save the UK and take it back to the sunlit uplands of prosperity. It hasn’t changed except its now the danger of breaking the recovery and going into another recession, with Gordon “the safe pair of hands” who stopped the depression they talked up and will guide Britain into the sunlit uplands of aspiration and Prosperity not Austerity. That message is helped by the fragility of recovery, still no time for a novice.
Don’t think its a winning message but it’s all they have.
194. I wouldn’t trust you with a shekel, either, so no hard feelings.
But tim is the only one on here with a proven record of welching. I was making that point. It is now made. Hopefully he will learn not to make stupid mendacious wagers that he has no intention of honouring now he has seen a little of the obverse.
It is interesting that Mike has not mentioned any Scottish seats given that 20% of LibDem held seats are in Scotland so here they are for you all to argue over.
Orkney and Shetland: Alistair Carmichael couldn’t lose this seat if he tried.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (my home seat): Viscount Thurso will remain MP as long as he wishes to and probably for any party. His predecessor sat for 3 parties in 30 years.
Ross, Skye and Lochaber: Charles Kennedy will remain as long as he wishes. He walks on water.
Inverness: Danny Alexander is useless but facing a fairly split opposition. Probably a result like 1983 when a 4 way marginal with all 4 within 2000 votes.
Argyll: should be a Tory gain unless the SNP syphon off enough anti-LibDem votes. Has been a Tory, SNP and LibDem seat within past 30 years
Gordon: should remain LibDem until Malcolm Bruce retires but local LibDem troubles in Aberdeenshire
Aberdeenshire W: Sir Robert Smith should hold on but Tories working hard in a pre 1997 seat and LibDem troubles in Aberdeenshire and Aberdeen City
Aberdeen South: LibDems came close in 2005 but should fall back due to LibDem problems in Aberdeen City.
Dunfermline West: Willie Rennie gained at by-election. Previously thought he would hold but now too close to call.
Fife NE: This is last election LibDems can take for granted and if Sir Ming pulls out at last minute then marginal and in 2014 a marginal LibDem/Tory seat
East Dunbartonshire: Jo Swinson should lose to Labour. The LibDems were virtually wiped out both at Holyrood and on the council in 2007.
Edinburgh West: Should revert to a LibDem/Tory marginal but expect LibDems to hold on.
Edinburgh South: Should be easy LibDem gain but LibDems and SNP squabbling very publicly in Edinburgh council coalition and this may be a Tory gain from 3rd place.
Berwickshire, Roxburgh etc: Michael Moore and before him David Steel have held the seat since the 1960s so should be safe. However John Lamont took the bulk of the seat at Holyrood in 2007 and Tories now largest group and running Borders Council so with John Lamont standing for Tories, this should be a Tory gain. Tories are throwing the kitchen sink at this one.
181 There’s no bet, Tim. SeanT withdrew the offer immediately.
I see Cambridge LDs have selected their candidate - is it really 98% safe Rod ??
He looks like a LD I guess..
http://www.cambridgelibdems.org.uk/news/000896/city_pensioners_miss_out_on_cold_weather_cash__huppert.html
150. Runnymede, yes reading more about SE Cornwall, I would have thought the Tories have a good chance there. The current MP is standing down, the Cons have a seemingly good (female) candidate in place and the Lib Dem candidate is a former Tory from Plymouth, not always the best place to be from if you want to win in Cornwall, even that part of Cornwall!
Westmorland - No Chance.
Leeds NW - Unlikely and ridiculously so for such a seat
York Outer - Yes.
and one more…
Harrogate and Knaresborough - It will happen.
202. better link
http://www.cambridgelibdems.org.uk/news/000892/lib_dems_name_julian_huppert_as_general_election_candidate.html
He’s against “media scare stories” but wants to fight climate change.
202: One shouldn’t sterotype, but a beardy bloke with glasses called Julian?
I bet he cycles and wears sandals as well.
“I see Cambridge LDs have selected their candidate - is it really 98% safe Rod ??”
It would have been 100% safe if the MP hadn’t retired.
206:I am also a keen cyclist, both for commuting and for long-distance travelling, and have done a number of sponsored rides, including an event earlier this year to raise money for Liberty and commemorating the 200th anniversary of the death of Thomas Paine, author of the ‘Rights of Man’ and other great works.
From his website…so predictable. No news yet on the sandals.
86 Cookie
Link to (Patrick’s) turnout thread.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/30/guest-slot-from-patrick-on-the-impact-of-turnout/
207. Greens have been campaigning hard door to door but I can’t see them peeling off enough from the LDs to make it close. Only real contest is for 2nd place really - Cons v Labour.
2005 result
Name Party Votes % +/- %
David Howarth Liberal Democrat 19,152 44.0 +18.9
Anne Campbell Labour 14,813 34.0 -11.1
Ian Lyon Conservative 7,193 16.5 -6.4
Martin Lucas-Smith Green 1,245 2.9 -0.4
Helene Davies UK Independence Party 569 1.3 +0.1
Tom Woodcock Respect-Unity Coalition 477 1.1 +1.1
Suzon Forscey-Moore Independent 60 0.1 +0.1
Graham Wilkinson Independent 60 0.1 +0.1
Majority 4,339 10.0
Turnout 43,569 62.1 +1.
201 - What a shame.
Although there’s probably a large number of women who wish he’d withdrawn immediately.
206. He lives in Cambridge so of course he cycles!
I’d forgot just how bad the Euro Elections were for Labour in Cornwall this year:
Cornwall 2010 Euros:
1. Conservative Party - 46,589
2. UKIP - 39,954
3. Liberal Democrats - 29,436
4. Green Party - 13,361
5. Mebyon Kernow - 11,534
6. Labour Party - 8,483
7. BNP - 5,118
SIXTH behind Mebyon Kernow!!!
FWIW, and while we are on the subject, I think Cornwall is very interesting and possibly worthy of a thread one quiet day.
It’s very hard to predict. On a good day I could see the Tories getting three or even, wildly, four seats. On a bad day, the LDs could retain all 5 and win the new 6th (its complicated by new boundaries)
Labour have no chance. They are despised. I think they may have been chased out of Cornwall for ever (as indeed may happen in most of the southwest, outside Plymouth). A lot of their already-dwindling vote will go to Mebyon Kernow and the Greens.
So it will come down to a battle for those Labour votes, between the Tories and LDs.
171 Peter it was me who suggested Brown might try that one.
208
That’s the effect of the Greens. We’ll see more candidates talking up their ecological credentials in years to come.
213. As I have menshed, a mate of mine is a PPC for MK in Cornwall. They were overjoyed by their euro performance.
And they will actually be a factor in the upcoming GE.
208 I wonder if he supports Tom Paine’s educational policy? Tom was a keen advocate of the Gove/Swedish model with funding following pupils to drive up educational standards (which I understand were nearly as bad as some parts of London are today back in the 18th Century).
He probably does support Tom’s rather over progressive taxation system, take everything you can from the better off and provide for better equality of reward.
210. Libs will definitely win Cambridge. Was my constituency at the last election, had to decide whether to vote tactically for the Lib Dems to get rid of Labour as everyone thought it would be a squeaker between Howarth and Campbell. Couldn’t bring myself to do it in the end but Howarth won easily. Such a shame he is standing down as he has been a good MP. Tories have no chance here, voted stubbornly Conservative for 5 years and never got even close to electing a councillor.
Very interesting observation, Stars. I took note of it.
Lloyd Evan’s verdict in the Speccie - an easy verdict for Hague, which means he was rubbish, apparently.
184 Mike the point I was making was that the sampling was done in the week before and during the LibDem conference and in the week before the Conference there was considerable mention of the conference.
206 - bet he’s a tree hugger too….
FWIW, the model says the current chances in Edinburgh South are
LibDem 38%
Con 31%
Lab 30%
SNP 1%
217 - I’m afraid they will be bitterly disappointed if they think the Euros prefigure a General Election surge. They will be squeezed virtually out of existence as they always are.
224 Which model? Is she one of the Page 3 girls?
Are pollsters allowed to use the electoral register and are they checking people are on it before including them in poll results?
ConHome has a list of the Conservative candidates in the top Lib-Dem target seats.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2010/01/the-conservative-partys-top-liberal-democrat-targets.html
Off Topic,
The LibDems have started delivering campaign material to the door in South Wilts, presumably in the run up to the GE. This week I had a four page tabloid size ‘pamphlet’ shoved through the door, the whole thing is made to look like a local news paper and even calls itself the ‘Salisbury Mail’ lots of puff pieces and photos of a rather earnest looking young chap called Nick Radford..?
Page three has a supposed comment piece called the ‘Salisbury Mail says..” and a round up of all the major players by ‘our political correspondent’ it also has a letters page, needless to say the correspondent and respondees are wildly in favour of the LibDems, but it does come with a some what skewed bar chart with ‘Labour can’t win here’ so that’s alright then.
Nowhere does it indicate the thing is produced by the yellow peril until you read the small print at the bottom of the back page.
Childish I know, but I lit the fire with it and smirked.
I thought I’d share this with the denizens of pb.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sa0EtdtPi8w
Christian rap that is somewhere between hilarious and agonisingly painful.
219. The model says Labour have a 2% chance of winning Cambridge, versus the Tories zero, although paradoxically the forecast shows the Tories just taking second place.
This is due to the likely difference in the variation of change I mention earlier. Labour’s performance will be more variable, the Tories’ more uniform, as usual…
In GE2005 the ratio was 2 LD votes : 3 Conservatives.
This time around we are likely to see a ratio of 2 LD : 4 Conservatives.
A massive change. That said of the 23 seats above I would expect 15 to be won by the Conservatives.
The strategy question is why are the Lib Dems spending most of their limited cash defending them rather than trying to win seats from Labour?
Huhne wont lose in Eastleigh. The Tories will win one seat in Cornwall, possibly two; Cornwall SE (deffo I think) and St Austell and Newquay. The latter won’t be a positive vote, it will be due to a split opposition.
225. “They will be squeezed virtually out of existence as they always are.”
People used to say that about the SNP and Plaid Cymru as well. They were always right, until one day, they were wrong…
Equality Bah……………………………
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1246423/Children-middle-class-parents-banned-attending-school-trips.html
sad, I noticed Guardian had a live blog on the probable launch of Apple’s answer to the big question “now I have a Mac Pro, MacBook Air, iPhone 3GS, iPod (or three) why is there still a space unfilled?”
sad is that now I’m quite excited waiting for Steve Jobs to tell me….
No bugger knows about Lib Dem Seats ! There are eight Bands beginning with 70+ and ending with 39-.Other than that they are split into groups of five Seats such as 65-69, 40-44.
All the eight Bands have been almost equally supported.
214. I agree - it’s a weird place and the seats are idiosyncratic. It’s quite possible that the Tories could miss the ‘obvious’ targets and win one or two of the less obvious ones.
232. Part of the answer to that is that there really aren’t that many realistic target seats for the Lib Dems which are Labour held.
Also it’s worth casting your eyes over where most of the existing Lib Dem seats are!
Naughty naughty,
Times have this picture,
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00677/adams_677794a.jpg
with the caption,
“Where did the Prime Minister go?
To link to a story titled,
“Brown leaves Ulster talks empty handed”
236 I’m still hoping for an Apple netbook.
241 an iPhone operating system that supported Flash would do me…
Some good news for Burnley FC.
They’ve signed Leon Cort from Stoke. He is an excellent centre-back and was a regular scorer when at Palace - I made a very nice return backing him as first scorer during his last full season at Selhurst Park. Very dangerous in the box and definitely worth a look at big prices every time he plays.
Stars: “D’accord, ça y est! I’m buying my ticket to Thailand now, and I have your intrade picture…”
I’m off to urge the drinking-and-chattering class on my soi to alert me immediately whenever they eventually see a wide-shouldered seven-feet tall white American male, wearing a well-pressed blue-as-night pin-stripped suit, white crocodile-shoes and rabbit-fur-hat, and softly singing to himself the air of Valkyrie through Gargantuan teeth.
That’s how we all picture Stars, right?
—
tim boy : “Lonely Thai hotel rooms aren’t good for the health…”
Only if you stay in a low-cost guesthouse while abusing the dusty aircon machinery, tim.
234 - But are there any real similarities between Cornwall today and Scotland and Wales in the early 70s?
Apart from the hairstyles, not really. Mebyon Kernow picked up some votes from people protesting against mainstream politicians in the febrile post-expenses environment in an irrelevant election. They really aren’t any further forward as a movement than they have been at any point you could mention in the past couple of decades - there issues aren’t being widely discussed and their organisation growing as was the case for the Scottish and Welsh nationalists a few decades ago.
Lewes
Norman Baker featured in expenses-gate.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/05/norman-baker-suffers-double-blow.html
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/lewes
http://www.jasonsugarman.org.uk/
My estimate of Tory gains from the Lib Dems:
York Outer, Romsey, Cheltenham, Hereford, Carshalton, Solihull, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton, Torbay, Somerton and Frome, SE Cornwall, Newquay and St Austell, Southport, Harrogate, Winchester and Montgomeryshire (16) - and they will fail to gain either Eastbourne or St Albans from the Tories
One last comment. Slowly digesting Tim B’s and Stars-and-Stripes’ comments up-thread, I suddenly got the strong feeling that Obama-and-cie are literally PANICKING in the White House.
I’m gonna look for signs of that insight in the Speech of the Union, tomorrow morning*.
*The East is always in advance on the West….
245. To be honest with you, I don’t get the impression Scottish devolution was being taken particularly seriously until - rather suddenly - the SNP won the Hamilton by-election in 1967.
243 - Did you hear Owen Coyles comment on the Burnley fans.
“It sounds like they want to get biblical - I was Judas tonight but last year I was God.
“I should be Moses because I led them from the wilderness to the promised land.
176. Ha ha ha!!! I can’t believe even tim would be stupid enough to think that it was meant as a real bet! But if he fell for it then it serves him right! Ha ha ha!
250 - The Burnley fans had printed a magnificent banner: “He’s not the Messiah. He’s a very naughty boy.”
The nature of the Lib Dems with the perception they are nice-middle-of-the-road,; with the main battle being against Labour; with the way some of the Lib-Dems tend to use incumbency, will mean that it will be hard to overturn some of these seats. Those that fall will be ones where they’ve been in power quite a long time, are not high profile Lib-Dem spokesmen, are less effective on the ground and where they have been losing Lib-Dem councillors. Not sure which seats fit that criteria but they would be the shaky ones.
OT I do love this story
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/hereford/worcs/8483318.stm
“The manager of a closed Worcestershire hotel where staff have sealed themselves in until they are paid has claimed he may buy it…”
249 Philippe…
*The East is always in advance on the West….
- so Lowestoft is more advanced than, say, Colwyn Bay?
“What is at issue is Lord Goldsmith’s suitability to offer advice on the more arcane points of international law. Peter Goldsmith was a heavyweight at the Bar, no question. But, his specialism was auditors’ liability, insurance and other commercial disputes. He was not an international lawyer and it shows.”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5735468/goldsmiths-advice-strikes-at-the-heart-of-all-that-is-wrong-with-cronyism.thtml
So we had Straw and Goldsmith were crossing legal swords over an particular area of law that neither really had any specialist knowledge of.
But it does show us how far we have fallen, at least Goldsmith was acknowledged as heavyweight of the Bar. The current Attorney General, a graduate of Mid Essex Technical College, doesn’t even seem to understand simple employment law (some of which she helped to create)!
If the Conservatives do win 15 from the Lib Dems adding in the 7 standing down, Clegg will see circa 33% of his MPs leave. Quite a churn. Labour will be a lot higher at circa 66% gone, but Cameron will only see 20% go. Although Cameron will have about 200 new MPs.
A business opportunity in satnav’s for the HoC?
The Lib Dems are going to get pasted!
All the Bullshit about local factors make me laugh my head off. Or the best one of all the council by - elections
Utter tripe.
The LDs are going to be utterly Crushed. I will really enjoy that!
It is the cherry on top the cake IMO!!!
200 Easterross
Largely agree with your analysis. Incumbency of a good MP is a huge factor in the Highlands, and party swings much less important.
Inverness and Argyll are both unpredictable.
258 - Dave will be disappointed that he’s only losing 20%.
When Spelman and Grayling are high flyers there’s obviously a quality issue.
257 Oracle, the current Attorney General should have been fired. Some of us bet on it because it was the move a competent PM would do……
Meanwhile the Supreme Court rules that Treasury actions were unlawful.
Was this yet another one of those “Jack Straw” actions of Ministers where they ignore legal guidance? Meanwhile other Govt Ministers like Al Johnstone hides behind legal advice to release an autistic chap to America for searching for aliens on computers….
Martin Salter says Gordon Brown should go back to the “Eton” strategy.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/msalter/100024027/carry-on-talking-about-eton-prime-minister/
BBC1 6pm News - report on Iraq.
Calendar says “Febuary”.
If they can’t manage primary school spelling all credibility goes out of the window.
261 tim, he is getting 200 new ones to choose from. Selected by ability unlike the tainted AWS gals that Labour were saddled with.
Steve Jobs has taken to the stage in California!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
259. Any evidence for that Martin?
265 - He’ll certainly have to fastrack the good ones.
Two decades of AWPS shortlists has left him with a poor shower.
1/3rd of WC tickets not sold with only 5 months to go
267- I’m sure there’ll be a dodgy bar chart somewhere that proves it. I would guess that he’s also spoken with “senior Lib Dems” who are privately admitting that this GE is a two horse race between the Conservatives and Labour.
246 Sir NP, I gather from the Western Morning News that Mebyon Kernow are making progress with resurrecting the Cornish language, to the point where road signage is being duelled.
tim One AWS example Jacqui Smith
Hmmm Alastair Darling announces tax breaks for the Oil&Gas industry today….
BBC Trust pi$$ing money around. Don’t they know there was a recession on?
Chairman Sir Michael Lyons lead the way in expenses claimed….Over a one-year period, his expenses totaled £63,000
He was (also) responsible for hosting the political lunches….
By far the most was spent on Labour’s event in Brighton with almost £3,000 of licence fee money used for a swanky lunch with ‘external guests’ understood to be politicians and industry executives.
The Trust spent a further £1,700 on the Conservative event, and £1,820 on the Liberal Democrat conference.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1246524/BBC-Trust-claims-11-000-lunches-hospitality-expenses.html#ixzz0dq02nLGo
Just seen this: Hague disappoints by, um, winning easily.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5735143/an-unequal-contest.thtml
ChristinaD January 27th, 2010 at 6:13 pm “Hmmm Alastair Darling announces tax breaks for the Oil&Gas industry today….”
It was the increase in taxes on these areas by Brown that curtailed a lot of new development …. which in turn cut their spending in Scotland …. and also led to lower tax revenues a few years later.
Brown has a lot to answer for.
Why the current situation is unprecedented.
When the Tories won in 1970 and 1979 they could effectively ignore the LibDems/Liberals as they held only a handful of seats and were unlikely to affect the outcome of the election. It’s different this time. The Libdems matter and Cameron knows it.
1. Cameron is going to appeal to LibDem voters, both in the policies he espouses and the tone in which they are conveyed.
2. The attention given to Clegg during the campaign could focus attention on the LibDem attitudes to the EU and ultra Green issues, putting off many of their voters who are euro-sceptic and lite-Green.
3. The Tories are making more of an effort in LibDem seats. I agree with your poster from Cumbria who tipped Farron for the Westmorland seat. However, I have a holiday home in the Lake District and I’m surprised by the amount and quality of literature from the Tories and their candidate Gareth McKeever. I don’t know if it will have any effect but there is certainly no shortage of effort.
4. This election isn’t like the Bedford mayoral contest. It’s a contest between Labour and the Tories. Clegg is going to be pressed on whom he’ll support in the event of a hung Parliament. If LibDem voters want to get rid of Brown the only safe way is by electing Tory MPs.
5. My experience in Hampshire is people don’t have the class bias against the Libdems that often colours their attitude to voting Labour or Conservative. On the other hand LibDem votes are always soft. They are persuadable.
So I don’t think there are precedents for the present Libdem position. I reckon they will lose more than ten seats and nearer fifteen to the Tories.
Don’t they know -> Didn’t they
153/133. Put another way, of the 16 seats currently showing LibDems odds-against we would expect them to hold 4 of them, and lose 4 of the 50 seats where they are shown as odds-on…
Oooohh Apple have a new product.
Must. Buy. More. Stuff.
Some of the seats at the top of the list like Eastleigh and Westmorlnd will almost certainly remain Lib Dem. Others further down like Torbay may go Tory. I know Cheltenham very well and this will be very close I would suggest a majority either way of less than a thousand.
I personally doubt the Lib dems will win the notionals like York Outer but Solihull, notionally Tory but with a well known Lib Dem MP may go the other way.
Most Lib Dem MPs are realatively well known in their local areas and most were realatively unscathed by the Expenses scandal.
275 - I’m sure Lloyd Evans really wants a job at the New Statesman. Maybe he made a mistake when he applied and sent his CV to the wrong address, then though damn its a recession, need a job, I’ll blag it.
Lots of photos of the new Apple iPad:
http://live.gizmodo.com/
It should also be noted that York Outer, Chippenham and St.Austell & Newquay are notional LibDem seats without an incumbent MP. The model effectively treats them as Libdem targets, applying no incumbency effects either way…
283 - Looks like they just showed the Chinese a picture of an iPod Touch and “MAKE BIGGER, MAKE SQUARER, ok”.
200/260 From what I hear, I expect East Dunbartonshire and West Dunfermline to be held by the LD incumbents, the tactical voting to keep Labour out will continue.
282, it is bloody odd. Part of me is being to feel sorry for him, but his Weltanschauung is weird. Apparently Brown making a flippant and tribal remark about a dam bursting is good stuff, and Hague slapping Harman about is, er, unimpressive.
Not long until F1 testing commences!
Re iPad,
“fly to San Francisco to Tokyo and watch video the whole way on one charge.” That’s ten hours of VIDEO. And 1 month of standby charge.
Now that is impressive (if true).
276.”It was the increase in taxes on these areas by Brown that curtailed a lot of new development …. which in turn cut their spending in Scotland …. and also led to lower tax revenues a few years later.
Brown has a lot to answer for.”
TC, the timing of this announcement is bizarre! First I knew of it was hearing it on Grampian News at 6pm. Brown’s behavior with regard taxation in the Oil&Gas industry over the last few years has not helped encourage longer term investment and exploration. So we had a late PBR before Christmas, and we have been told that there will be a budget before the next GE. So why announce this news today out of the blue? All very strange.
288 - my ipod classic shows 8 hours of video on a single charge….
285 – Oracle, “ MAKE BIGGER, MAKE SQUARER, ok”.
Did you know in the eighteenth century when Chinese porcelain was the latest must have, the upper classes sent pictures of their family crests to China to be hand painted onto various crockery. The ‘crests’ hand little arrows pointing out which bit should be coloured – a year or so later the dinner-service would arrive with family crest, complete with little arrows and the words red, blue and yellow, faith fully copied.
290 - Yes, but we are talking about driving a 10″ screen (be interested to know the res, if it is Full HD).
292, 10″? I’m not impressed
292 (cont) And not seeming to be picky, official Apple stats say iPod classic only 6hrs of video.
http://www.apple.com/ipodclassic/specs.html
There will be a LD-CON swing, but there will also be a LAB-LD swing.
I reckon that those with the smallest Labour vote last time will go blue because there are less Labour supporters to squeeze but those with a significant Labour vote may well stay Yellow as some Labour voters switch to the LD’s.
As a general rule seats with more than a 5% LD lead and where there was over 15% Labour support could stay Yellow but local factors and the quality of the candidates will affect it.
I don’t see how the LibDems can lose East Dunbartonshire, unless Swinson herself has done something to piss off the voters that I’m not aware of.
Dunfermline is a tough one. It was lost before Brown became PM, and it’s possible a loyalty effect may see it return to Labour. The LibDems need to squeeze every last SNP vote to hang on, which may be hard given the national picture in Scotland…
It’s unbelievable to me that such an amazing device will only cost about £400.
When we bought our first Apple computer in 1994 - the Performa 630 - it cost about £4,000. At the time Apple was completely unfashionable and the company almost went bankrupt around that time.
Just to confuse the situation even more I’ve been looking back at the detailed council by council results from the Euro elections and these were the council areas that the Libdems won (now I know there are major differences to Westminster constituencies so all caveats apply). Those with an asterisk are ones where the Conservatives were within a 1.5% swing.
Burnley
Cambridge
Chesterfield
Newcastle upon Tyne
Northumberland*
South Lakeland
Stockport*
Watford*
Cardiff Central
Orkney Islands
Shetland Islands
Incidentally, out of 399 areas the Conservatives won 279 and Labour were second with 60. Constituency boundary reform anyone? Does Nick Clegg really want to reduce the number of constituencies down to those sort of levels coz the Libdems only won 11. Others in Scotland (SNP) with 28 were third ahead of the LDS.
The full breakdown was:
Con 279
Lab 60
Others (Scotland) 28
Others (Wales) 11
LD 11
UKIP 7
Green 3
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/table/2009/jun/09/european-elections-elections-2009
292 (cont cont) I’m doubting it will be full HD, as most 15″ laptops don’t have screens that do that, 720p maybe.
294 - on the current one that’s true, but the original 160g iPod classic had a thicker case than the 80g, and a bigger battery, hence the 8 hours….
275 Morris D, I did a double-take at this snippet from your link:
According to one of the wilder Tory theories, a hung parliament could force a humiliated Cameron from office and put the trusted Hague into Number 10 at the head of a coalition government.
They have an electoral mountain to climb, and a hung parliament would “humiliate” Mr Cameron?
286.Hi Marcia, great to see you posting, its been too long.
Interesting to note the anti Labour tactical voting in East Dunbartonshire and West Dunfermline.
292 - so far….
After nearly a decade of rumors and speculation, Apple’s finally unveiled the iPad. It’s a half-inch thick and weighs just 1.5 pounds, with a 9.7-inch capacitive touchscreen IPS LCD display, and it’s running a custom 1GHz Apple “A4″ chip developed by P.A. Semi, with a 10-hour battery life and a month of standby. It’ll come in 16, 32, and 64GB sizes, and it’s got the expected connectivity: very little. There’s a 30-pin Dock connector, a speaker, a microphone, Bluetooth, and 802.11n WiFi. As expected, it can run iPhone apps — either pixel-for-pixel in a window, or pixel-doubled fullscreen — but developers can also target the new screen size using the updated iPhone OS SDK, which is available today.
Apple says there’s room for a third device between the smartphone and the laptop, and that it has to be better at tasks like browsing, email, photos, e-books, and videos than both — netbooks, says Steve, “aren’t better at anything.” It looks just like the leak we saw, with a large touchscreen keyboard that Steve says is “a dream to type on,” and an interface that’s very reminiscent of the iPhone, although it’s significantly expanded and altered. The built-in apps are much more Mac-like than iPhone-like, with versions of iPhoto and iTunes that look like touch-oriented versions of their desktop counterparts. There’s also some built-in location services that lets the Map app auto-locate. Obviously the iTunes store is built-in for previewing and buying media.
259.
The most marginal vote of all.
Martin Day knows most about…
(a) Lib Dem prospects
(b) finding a job
Too close to call?
297 - Is that £400 (i.e $600), doing a USD conversion, or definitely £400? We all know how Apple have liked to screw the old overseas customer.
My current view is that the Iraq Inquiry is probably going to cost Labour seats like Oxford East, Newcastle North, Edinburgh South, Hampstead&Kilburn, Islington South&Finsbury, Watford, City of Durham, Norwich South.
300 - Fair enough. Think going to be a big selling point for Apple to have a screen that size being able to show video for 10hrs (given the res is good enough).
286 Marcia I assume that must be otherwise SNP voters because the Tories are keen to fight given the new Holyrood seat is much more like the old Tory seat.
301, welcome to the wacky world of Mr. Evans.
296 - Willie Rennie has a gathered a large personal vote since being elected in 2006 and it should see him scrape through. Should be enough Tory voters to vote tactically. Apart from NE Fife this was the Tories more fertile area in the past. Lots of exiles from Edinburgh live in the seat.
303 - was from Engadget, by the way. So it’s an iTouch with a big screen, basically.
“netbooks, says Steve, “aren’t better at anything.” ”
No, but they do it just as well, with better spec, and cheaper , than this piece of overhyped schmutter.
Offering a bet and then withdrawing it as a laugh ain’t setting a very good precedent is it ? I think seanT should be banned for an hour or two as punishment.
PS - can I be taken off moderation yet pretty pretty please?
305 - that’s based on a conversion unfortunately. Hope we don’t have to wait too long for it to reach these shores.
306.
My concern is that after Bliar’s Chilcott evidence it will be even more apparent that the arrogant *** was totally prepared to ignore the evidence and slaughter scores of thousands of ‘towel-heads’, civilians and conscripts - all in the service of ‘regime change’ for his Uncle George. The result could well be a thousand fatwahs on him and, as he scours the wold looking for more fellow-Tories to fill his boots, the UK taxpayer will end up shelling out millions of pounds on security to keep him alive.
286 marcia
If you are right, East Dunbartonshire wouldn’t surprise me, but if that is true for Dunfermline, then that’s really bad news for Labour.
296 Rod try the fact that in 2007 the LibDems came a very poor 4th in the corresponding Holyrood seat and went from control of the council which covers the constituency to barely holding 3 seats behind the other 3 parties. I was at University with the former LibDem Group leader and Convenor of the Council and he said the LibDems will be stuffed at the GE.
310.
” Lots of exiles from Edinburgh live in the seat.”
Including Gordo?
Today is a great day for people with pudgy fingers and capacious pockets.
306. the model says three of those 8 will go LibDem…
Apple’s freshly announced iPad is a lot of things to a lot of people, but it appears that it’s not going to be the device that proves the appropriateness of Adobe Flash for enjoying rich media device on a mobile device. Better luck next time, Adobe!
http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/27/apples-ipad-keeping-adobe-flash-away-from-your-couch/
Surely not! If true, that $600 of my money they will have lost.
Is Apple = Apple Inc whose shares are 1.8% off today as against Dow being down 0.4%?
I can sympathise with the underwhelmedness. iPad = Newton all over again. What tf is it for?
316.
But aren’t there a number of Labour MPs who were returned last election for seats where they have no councillors at all? Ruth Kelly comes to mind (rather she didn’t but there you are). Could not Swinson do the same, provided she is well-enough thought of in a four-way split seat? Reminds me of Russell Johnson’s old Inverness. A decent incumbent only needs about 29 per cent to win.
315 - Not necessarily. Lib Dems held Brent East in 2005 at the same time as Labour won the General Election. A lot depends on the incumbent once the by-election machine rumbles on - Teather was and Rennie is a strong organiser who “gets it” and is popular on the ground.
314 - I think Blair’s attitude to the Iraq War was very simple: it was obvious Dubya was going to go ahead with the war and therefore we might as well join in as well. It was going to happen no matter what in other words. By joining in, Britain might be able to exercise a kind of restraining or civilising influence on the US’s prosection of the war - that was Tony’s thinking I think.
320
Ah yes, the brilliant web browsing experience which prevents you from seeing half the web……
Which are the vulnerable Tory seats? Or do people think there aren’t any? Eastbourne? Guildford? With less tribal voting and Labour supporters knowing that for the first time in 13 years we could be facing a Tory government, might the LDs not be able to squeeze their vote.
I’d definitely be worried if I was a tory in a marginal against the Lib Dems with a decent Labour vote still left to squeeze.
does lots of gaming etc - it’s an iPod Touch with a big screen, and an ebook reader called iBook - DRM anyone?
308 - in the 2005 election a lot of newspapers seemed to convince the electorate of East Dunbartonshire that it was a Labour/LD marginal for some reason. Perhaps the election of Independent Jean Turner for the Holyrood seat muddied the waters I had though it would be Tory/Labour marginal due to Bearsden however they fell for it and there was massive tactical voting in the seat and Labour were ousted. I think the SNP candidate just saved his deposit by the skin of his teeth. Some of the electorate do vote differently for Westminster.
I don’t think the Tories have a chance at present in the Westminster seat. Will they really want Labour to win? Although the boundaries have been different over the years, a seat with the name of East Dunbartonshire has been held by 4 parties since 1974.
289.Really struggled to find out more details of this. Apparently this is not new after all, but a change of direction to target these tax breaks in a different area. Odd.
Chris A.
Have a look at ITN News tonight.
We knew you’re insane to have a major op with BUPA or a baby at the Portland, clock the uninsured “service” offered by private uninsured midwives.
How come Apple appears to have some allergic reaction to Flash?
Channel 4 News straight in with the hatchett
316. “control of the council which covers the constituency to barely holding 3 seats behind the other 3 parties”
But they lost out badly there due to STV, didn’t they? You have to compare like with like.
If you are talking about Strathkelvin & Bearsden their vote hardly shifted in 2007 and the result was complicated by the presence of a strong independent.
332 - ?
Almost all these Lib Dem seats will be held because the remaining Labour vote will fall to the floor the vast majority voting yellow, what happens between the Lib Dem and Con voters is almost immaterial.
The Lib Dems will make about a dozen or more gains from Labour and end up in the upper seventies, whether they have 17% or 25% of the vote.
Sorry Martin but there you go.
326 - Apart from St Albans which is a special case and two notionals with incumbent Lib Dems (Somerton and Solihull), I can’t see Tory seats being in play if they are at or above 40%. Appreciably below that and a few stand out - Eastbourne, Guildford and the dark horse of Worcestershire West most notably.
326 Yes, I think that’s the right way to look at it, Frank. It will be hard for the Tories to make headway against the LDs in marginals where there is a sizeable Labour vote which could move towards the LDs, offsetting any improvement in the Tory vote.
Incidentally, that wouldn’t apply in Guildford where the Labour vote has already been squeezed virtually out of existence. Anne Milton should be safe there.
289 Christina, the answer is Aberdeen South
re 320 If you want a phone that’s also a fully fledged PC that uses Adobe Flash brilliantly then try the new Nokia N900.
It’s the only mobile device I have ever had that enables me to manage PB from anywhere.
I had an IPhone and it was crap.
335. Evidence? Or just hope?
C4 News, beloved by millions of guardianistas around the country, is doing a hatchet on Goldsmith. Clegg must be laughing his arris off.
and to 339 - the browser is Firefox.
335. Cameron’s drifting to the right has certainly been good news for the Lib Dems. They’ll have to prove themselves after the next election as the ‘real’ alternative to the Tories. Won’t be easy.
319 Rod you sound like the character Carol from Little Britain
“Computer says no”
336. Somerton is LD on the “official” notionals by R&T…
I agree with the rest of the post.
Nicola Bates the Tory PPC in Martin Day’s favourite LibDem held constituency is inviting 1000 people to donate just £1 to her campaign and has set up a web page accordingly. Apparently she is rapidly filling up the pledges.
re 340. The best evidence was the Bedford mayoral by-election where the Labour vote totally collapsed and switched to the Lib Dems in order to stop the Tory.
322 Wage Slave she might but Jo Swinson is no Russell Johnson and also her part in Charles Kennedy’s downfall did not go down well.
327. It’s not all bad, but badly thought out. Too big - the kindle and sony reader are 7 inches high, (as are netbooks) this is 10″. it is just a tablet pc.
Shrink it to about the size of a calculator, bung in a telephone and built in 3G or better connectivity and it would be quite an attractive proposition. Oh …
“72 Thanks. It is truly fascinating watching how much stick Obama is getting for the economy and foreign wars, which clearly have nothing to do with him. The GOP seems to have escaped all blame.”
Jonathan, you really shouldn’t ‘t be so gullible as to fall for the frantic spin you get on here you know.
Yesterday’s NBC/WSJ poll shows who people blame (this is after questions on the economy, health care, Afghanistan and climate change)
“When it comes to dealing with the problems facing America, how much blame do you give ‘x’ in not finding solutions to those problems?
President Obama - Blame 27 / Not Blame 71
The Democrats in Congress - Blame 41 / Not Blame 56
The Republicans in Congress - Blame 48 / Not Blame 50″
Linked in some ways, political analysts are getting more and more frustrated about how certain media (and their consumers) completely misunderstand the nature of US independents (true independents that is). The figure is about 10%, the rest of the reported third of Americans are analogous to shy tories/labour, there because both parties are so disliked that people don’t want to admit they are one or the other.
I think the writer’s at his wit’s end with these people (his caps not mine!) -
“INDEPENDENTS ARE NOT A “VAST MIDDLE GROUND.”
INDEPENDENTS DO NOT COMPRISE MORE THAN “A THIRD OF AMERICANS.”
http://www.themonkeycage.org/2010/01/argh_argh_argh_argh_argh.html
“There are an awful lot of people who call themselves independent because it’s fashionable in some circles. But their voting behavior is predictable. They are not swing voters.”
http://www.themonkeycage.org/2010/01/last_time_on_independents_i_pr.html
So there you go, don’t trust anyone who goes on about the important third or more of independent voters.
306 My current view is that the Iraq Inquiry is probably going to cost Labour seats like Oxford East, Newcastle North, Edinburgh South, Hampstead&Kilburn, Islington South&Finsbury, Watford, City of Durham, Norwich South.
by Andy JS January 27th, 2010 at 6:43 pm
The only one of these seats I know well is Islington S.&.F. There is no doubt in my mind that the seat is close enough that such issues do make a difference. What the inquiry is doing is further demoralising the Labour activists; the issue is toxic for Lab in such seats. Put in simple and, I hope, not too abusive terms; “it loses the vicar vote”. Short hand for a certain temperament that expects the consideration of war to warrant more care than that which, we now learn, it received in this case.
324 Andy more likely he was promised a consultancy with Haliburton by Dick Cheney.
302 - I’ve been away for nearly a month and just returned at the weekend. A nice break in France and London. One of our party made this little poignant video of our visit to the Somme.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xayI3g7VNM8
338.Easterross, yes, I did think Ann Begg and Aberdeen South.
If Marcia is still about, how is Labour holding up in Dundee just now?
328 Marcia as a Tory I would rather see Labour win the Westminster seat with the Tories second as that helps us for the new Holyrood seat. Maybe I will be proved wrong but my LibDem friends in East Dunbartonshire use the “f” word when referring to Miss Swinson.
344. I probably sound more like Zen in Blakes-7….
david (s) January 27th, 2010 at 7:01 pm
Ok, if you want to think that then that is your prerogative - I just take what Lib Dems say with a massive pinch of salt because it is Bullshit. I congratulate the Lib Dems into fooling quite a few people into believing the bullshit about local issues, not counting UNS, incumbency, blah blah. But it is all rubbish – When ever the Lib Dem roaming has been tested in the last few years it has shown to be fantasy:
Local Elections 2008 – Lib Dem claims of breakthrough: Bullshit!
Crewe and Nantwich – Lib Dem claim they could win: Humiliated!
London Mayor Elections – Lib Dem claims they could Win: Bullshit!
Henley By-election – Lib Dem claim they were neck and Neck with Tories: Bullshit!
Euro Elections/Local Elections and Norwich North – Lib Dem Claims they were going to outpoll Labour / Keep South West Seats etc: Bull shit!
I could go on!
The fact of the matter is the Lib Dems will get smashed apart in many Lib Dem Held seats by the Tories – You can point to local election results and claim that we should double count the electoral models that count Lib Dem incumbency in and then Lib Dem folk we should add it in again. Or incumbency is going to boost Lib Dem MPs perceived to be on the take.
The funniest one of all is the fact Lib Dems have gone down in the polls since 2005 and the Tories have gone up but Lib Dems claim there is not movement from Lib Dem to Tories. It is utter fantasy and actually looking up at this page makes a mockery Lib Dems being taken seriously!
As usual, the Lib Dem bulls seem to assume that the increase in Tory support comes from nowhere, while the Lib Dems, rain or shine, will be able to attract additional tactical votes over and above those they got in 2005. It’s an interesting theory.
306. Do you mean Newcastle Central? Also what about Leicester West and Aberdeen South.
355 “use the “f” word when referring to Miss Swinson”
friendly?
Simon in the hills: I know Hampstead&Kilburn well and I’d say the same for there save that Labour have - as far as I can see - been non-existent for years now at the local level. I don’t think it will change any votes at this stage: Glenda voted against the war in any case.
The result will depend on how much people want to vote Labour out and whether they vote Liberal or Tory to do so and how good the Liberals & Tories are at getting their vote out and persuading the unaffiliated that to get Labour vote they have to vote for their party.
Certainly the Tory candidate is probably ahead in terms of meaningful activity; the Lib Dem is still at the stage of photocopied newspapers telling us about how many drains he’s covered up and how much dog poo he’s cleaned etc.
But there are a sizeable number of voters who are probably really conservative with a small “c” but don’t want to label themselves as Tory and think that the Lib Dems are People Like Us. It’ll be a real test of whether Dave’s decontamination strategy has worked.
Here comes the hard sell on the iPad, from $499, $30 unlimited data plan on AT&T (no contract)…
Put bloody flash on the damn thing….
As a Lib Dem I know there is always movement but there is no way it will have been that significant. We have shown in the polls that it is LABOUR who better when we lose a few points. This is also backed up by the fact that Labour is fall back when we make significant advances in the polls. It is only in the south where Lib Dem votes matter to the Tories and of course that is not representative of the whole country.
“So $499 for 16GB of iPad. That’s our base model. 32GB is $599, 64GB is $799. 3G models cost an extra $130. $629, 729, and 829 with 3G.”
Tumbleweed……
358 antifrank - I think you have hit the nail on the head.
(It may soon be time for me to repeat my regular “Don’t forget the 2005 baseline already includes most of the local and tactical-voting factors” post).
358. I think the recent marginal polls have shown the Tories doing much better in Labour seats than Lib Dem ones.
347. Mike Smithson January 27th, 2010 at 7:08 p
Oh come on!
The reason why the Lib Dem won that election in bedford is because it was a blatent race inspired campaign by libdems that the Tory candidate had flash mobbed the Bedford meeting that you attended with Asians. You were constantly putting pictures up and the lib dem team were making the ethnic origin and lack of local roots the issue. You know why you did it - I know why you did it as I do this page here!
I think it funny and immitation of methods and all that related to flattery! 
Please dont treat as fools!
333 Rod under STV a party can put up more than 1 candidate in each ward. 2 of their 3 councillors were elected in one ward Bearsden South so in 6 wards they failed to get any councillors elected. The LibDems got 3 councillors elected in total, a loss of 9 councillors. There were 8 wards so if the LibDems were doing well they should have achieved between 6 and 8 councillors without needing to secure 2 or 3 out of 3 in any ward.
351 Oxford east is interesting as a Tory bet
331 Oracle
There’s a rambling post on Daring Fireball that suggests it’s
1. technical (Adobe’s Flash player is resource hungry, and causes crashes),
2. strategic (Apple don’t want a rival company controlling an aspect of the web - video)
http://daringfireball.net/2010/01/apple_adobe_flash
Frank Booth, yes, relatively better. It is, however, fantasy to suggest that Lib Dem seats are somehow completely immune from Tory charms. If the Lib Dems’ vote share shifts from 2:3 relative to the Tories to 1:2, as looks entirely possible, the Lib Dems will lose a good number of these seats, incumbency and further tactical voting notwithstanding.
There’s a couple of Labour seats in Liverpool that the Lib Dems should be targeting.
354 - We haven’t seen much Labour activity locally as compared to years past. Maybe as we get near to the election they will be more visible.
337.”326 Yes, I think that’s the right way to look at it, Frank. It will be hard for the Tories to make headway against the LDs in marginals where there is a sizeable Labour vote which could move towards the LDs, offsetting any improvement in the Tory vote.”
Peter, I think that the Libdems have already managed to garner both the anti Tory and floating tactical voters over the last 13 years in some of their seats. If they are hoping to squeeze this further, they will struggle to get that core Labour vote, just as they were unable to shift the core Tory vote. 2005 was the Libdem peak in some ways, able to squeeze the anti Blair Iraq vote while hanging onto the floating vote. But we have no idea what will happen now there is a much more palpable anti Labour/time for change meme. Sticking with the Libdems in some seats would be like sticking with the 2005 result. Turnout and a positive vote for a different government could outweigh any further Labour squeeze, and by some margin in some seats.
We are going to see some surprise holds, gains and losses. And I think that the losses will be a shock in particular because of the 2005 results.
Sorry to disturb the IT-geeks. [Yse iz a Tosh/Sony geezah.]
Michael Smithson: Where is the election predictions of the head-honchos of el-postio amigos…? You said you would post at 17:00Z.
370 - Well on this, I think they are absolute plonkers, so many websites have flash and many streams are flash based (and not just youtube). I know Apple like to control everything, but when it comes to the web they just can’t, it is as simple as that. They have got away with it on the iPhone, but on the iPad it seems essential to me.
iPad sounding more and more like a massive massive over-hype. No phone, no flash, no multi-tasking, too expensive.
But then what do I know, I ain’t a massively successful multi-national company that has flogged 75 million iPhone / iPods touches. I sure they will shift shed loads of the things.
368. I’m curious to know what the change in the share of the vote was in the council elections…
I’m wondering if the Dems will have the votes in Congress to push the initiative they had been intending to take up next: immigration reform. Their incentive for doing so is obvious… see a leading immigration reform advocate saying a few days ago that one of the principal reasons to legalize illegals is to create eight million new votes for the Democratic Party:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AK7K0itgQt0
We haven’t been hearing the Dems talking about immigration reform over the last few days, so maybe they’re unsure of themselves as to whether they can afford another huge fight over a highly divisive issue before November. Perhaps this is another issue that could be kicked to the lame duck session in late November and December. This is also another issue that’s biting the Dems in the rear end, though; when they’re in opposition, it’s a great issue that they can use to win the loyalty of Hispanics, but when they’re in the majority they risk a huge backlash if they do grant amnesty.
263 wibbler
Salter won’t be standing as an MP at the coming election.
What is this crap on C4 news?
York Outer is a certainty for the Conservatives.
Because in part due to the greater york council being run by the Lib dems.
Look how well Labour did in 2005 in Rydale the greater part now of York outers new seat.
376 - it’s a religion issue: if you’re an Apple geek you’ll love it.
To the rest of us it’s an iPod Touch with a bigger screen. But you can get a respectable laptop with a bigger screen, Flash and much more memory (hard drive) for far less money - about $500.
read all about it (and hear Steve Jobs’ pitch as well)..
http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=30020
347. Mike remind me what the actual changes in first preference votes for the parties were in Bedford, between 2007 and 2009?
376 Oracle
YouTube are dabbling with non-flash video
http://www.youtube.com/html5
I suppose that having failed to win the web with their own QuickTime tech, Apple want to push HTML5 video where they can.
“it’s a religion issue: if you’re an Apple geek you’ll love it.”
Absolutely. By the time you have brought the thing, the stand, the keyboard, some apps, you could easily have spent over $1000.
So Gordon proposes that Policing & Justice will be devolved to the NI Assembly on…May 4th. I have no doubt it will receive decent media coverage.
There’s another date at some point after the 4th May that many people on here have been talking about but I cant for the life of me remember what it is, some election or something…
386. Yeah just some wee parish poll I think Yokel
376 am underwhelmed by the iPad though I’ll probably buy one - it’ll be easy to transfer stuff from the big Mac to like home movies, videos etc. Will get better as memory gets bigger & cheaper. Would be great if I could download photos from the Nikon when on safari and also have movies to watch (and when I’m at my cousins home in the bush with WiFi connected to satellite broadband surf the net and upload/download content).
353.Marcia, thanks for sharing that, its very poignant indeed. Doing my family history, I discovered just how lucky my own family was that so many of that generation came home safely. Some families suffered great losses. I still have a beautiful hand embroidered card sent from France by my great uncle to his parents at Christmas.
377 Sorry Rod I have no idea. You will need to find that info for yourself.
re 375. It is prepared and ready to post.
I don’t like putting stuff up too early in the evening otherwise the thread length will become unmanageable.
ALL the top pollsters have responded to my survey and the outcome is a little different from that at the conference.
385 - but if you are an Apple geek, that’s a deal.
You pay $300 up front and at least $500 a year to AT&T (of which Apple gets a third) for the privilege of owing an iPhone, you think $1500 for a laptop is money well spent, so $900 and only $360 a year to AT&T (for the unlimited plan) for a big iPod Touch running the iPhone software must be one hell of a deal….
Looking on a constituency basis, I currently think the Conservatives will gain about ten of these, plus Winchester, not on the list.
386 - Gordon cannot be that stupid, surely?
Scratch that. Of course he can.
Everything - just everything - screams that he needs to go before then. He needs to go now before things get even worse for him and for Labour.
Yet here he is lining up what he thinks is a great piece of “International Statesman”-ship as a personal boost in the vain hope that it will lead the public to overlook that, by then, the UK will have seen a slip back into negative GDP performance for Q1 2010, taxpayers will have seen their taxes increase in April pay packets and Labour will have had to present a budget reflecting the true horror of the economic situation.
NI Policing vs economic meltdown…I wonder which of those will influence the electorate more.
Go now, Gordon. It’s your best hope of not being completely annihilated.
re 391. It is up now. New thread
Apparently Our Glorious Leader and Karzai are going to take questions from students on Newsnight. Not sure if it is going to be live or not.
If you missed it - PMQs is rotten for Hattie - Pickles is entertaining on the DP.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00qhqh6/The_Daily_Politics_27_01_2010/
You can get the vastly superior Nokia N900 for nothing and just have a £35 a month contract that gives unlimited internet and 300 free any network minutes. The contract length is 18 months.
367.
Martin Day has a very short and peculiarly distorted memory. Meths or Crystal Meth? There must be a PhD in there for someone. It was the Conservatives themselves who made a massive noise about their candidate packing the selection meeting, comments which I’m sure other Parties were too happy to repeat to show the division in the local Tory ranks.
http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/cameron.php?poster=154585
392 - Suppose so.
Thing is I actually buy the concept given my personal circumstances (I can see why lots of people don’t, and a netbook or laptop is preferable). $600-ish and I’m interested.
BUT, I need to be able to multi-task, I need full access to the interweb, and would be nice to take and receive calls. Camera / Webcam would also be a nice accessory.
But no multi-task, no flash, no buy. $1000, get lost….
358.”As usual, the Lib Dem bulls seem to assume that the increase in Tory support comes from nowhere, while the Lib Dems, rain or shine, will be able to attract additional tactical votes over and above those they got in 2005. It’s an interesting theory.”
antifrank, that is the same point I was trying to make, only I went right around the houses as they say to say what you managed to quite succinctly in a couple of sentences.
In answer to the thread’s original question: we just don’t know, because it’s an unprecedented situation.
When there is a big swing nationally from Lab to Con, we don’t know whether (a) Labour supporters will vote Lib Dem in order to stop the Conservatives from winning, or (b) Lib Dem supporters will swing to Conservative because they are afraid of Labour getting in again [and which of those two will predominate].
And when a uniform national swing would imply Lib Dems losing lots of seats to the Conservatives (in effect, undoing the gains of 1997), we don’t know whether Lib Dem seats will (a) fall in line with the national swing, or (b) be immune because of the incumbency advantage of sitting MPs.
It’s an unprecedented situation purely because there are so many of them - 60-something seats now, compared with only 14 in 1979 (which was the last time such a swing happened nationally).
Where is Winchester in the blue target league table? Is it regarded as a dead cert, or is it seen as more marginal than that? I’d be interested to know PB opinions.
Winchester may be easier for the LDs to hold than the figures suggest in my view, since it’s had most of its rural hinterland removed. If you read Mark Oaten’s book, he recounts how the votes from the urban areas were massively in favour of himself whereas the rural areas were similarly strong for the Tories.