Massachusetts live thread
January 20th, 2010
Will it be a Democrat disaster in the Bay State?
UPDATE: Massachusetts called for Brown (GOP)
Boston Globe town-by-town results
Double Carpet
MessageSpace Advertising
MessageSpace Advertising
politicalbetting.com
The web’s premier resource for political betting.
MessageSpace Advertising
-
Categories
- all
- General Election (1869)
- About the site (68)
- Betting (1395)
- Betting Call (118)
- BNP (13)
- Boundary Reviews (5)
- Budget (10)
- By elections (82)
- Campaigning (30)
- Coalition (54)
- Commons seat predictions (32)
- Commons seats spreads (31)
- Competitions (14)
- Cuts (1)
- David Cameron (16)
- EU matters (15)
- General (1847)
- Gordon Brown (83)
- Guest Contribution (9)
- Guest slot (10)
- Hung parliament (1)
- International (134)
- Labour (988)
- Labour leadership (65)
- Leader approval ratings (10)
- Leaders' TV debates (14)
- Lib Dems (287)
- London and local elections (75)
- Marf Cartoons (51)
- Media (105)
- Media Inquiries (4)
- MPs expenses probe (55)
- Nick Clegg (15)
- PB Angus Reid polls (25)
- PB Polls (6)
- PB's "The Money Says" Index (25)
- PMQs (1)
- Pollsters/polling (1155)
- Referendum (5)
- Round-ups (40)
- Scotland (24)
- Sean Fear's Friday slots (31)
- Speaker (30)
- Spending Cuts (2)
- The "Golden Rule" Seat Calculations (2)
- Tories (447)
- UK Elections - others (270)
- UKIP (26)
- US Politics (264)
- Vince Cable (1)
- Voting systems and the electoral process (6)
- WHITE HOUSE RACE (192)
Pages
Archives
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
- February 2006
- January 2006
- December 2005
- November 2005
- October 2005
- September 2005
- August 2005
- July 2005
- June 2005
- May 2005
- April 2005
- March 2005
- February 2005
- January 2005
- December 2004
- November 2004
- October 2004
- September 2004
- August 2004
- July 2004
- June 2004
- May 2004
- April 2004
- March 2004
-
Archives for PB
Betting
- BET 365
- Betfair
- BetHiLo
- Binary Bet
- Bookies
- Bookies Free Bets
- Free bet
- Free bets
- Free Bets offers
- GENERAL ELECTION CONSTITUENCY BETTING
- LADBROKES POLITICS BETTING
- Odds Conversion chart
- Online Betting
- PADDY POWER
- Sport betting
- Sporting Index
- UK POLITICAL MARKETS - BEST PRICES
- VICTOR CHANDLER
- WILLIAM HILL POLITICS
Book - "The Political Punter - How to make money bettin
Data polls
Election Game
Election Predictors
Elections
- Constituency maps
- Election Leaflets
- Election Leaflets
- Electoral Commission
- EURO Results 1999
- Euro Results 2004
- General Election result 2005
- Local by-election results
- Political composition of councils
- Politicalbetting Channel 2
- UK Election database 1992-2005
- UK elections 1885 -
- UK Political INFO
- UK Westminster by elections
Links
Media
Mike Smithson's top blogs
- Adam Smith Institute
- Aloadofoldstodge
- Anthony Wells
- Archbishop Cranmer
- Benedict White
- By-elections
- ConservativeHome
- Daily Pundit
- Dizzy thinks
- Gentlemen Ranters
- Guido’s Blog
- Hopi Sen
- Iain Dale
- Indigo Council Blog
- Labour Uncut
- Labour Women
- LabourHome
- Left Foot Forward
- LibDem Voice
- Liberal Conspiracy
- Liberal Review
- Liberal Vision
- Lobbydog
- Lobbydog
- Norfolk Blogger
- Paul Linford
- Politicalbetting Channel 2
- Recess Monkey
- Snowflake
- Stephen Tall (A Liberal Goes a long way)
- The Mole - First Post
- The Virtual Stoa (Chris Brooke)
- Think Politics
- ToffeeWomble (SeanT)
- Tom Harris
MP Expenses Probe
MSM Blogs
- Adam Boulton
- Bagehot - The Economist
- Bendict Brogan
- Daniel Finkelstein - Times Comment Central
- Gary Gibbon Channel 4
- James Macintyre - New Statesman
- John Rentoul - Indy
- Kevin Maguire - Mirror
- LabourHome
- New Statesman - James Macintyre
- Nick Cohen
- Paul Waugh Evening Standard
- Sam Coates Red Box - Times
- Spectator coffeehouse
- Three Line Whip - Telegraph
Totally independent of PBC
US Politics
Meta
thanks
First
Blast!
Drat could have been first if I hadn’t spent time posted ‘new thread’ rubbish.
Change has come to Massachusetts - Is what Scott Brown will be saying soon!
Maybe the BBC will show it with someone looking admiraling at the TV for the next year!
So Squeaky is going to have to pay back the interest due on £5k amounting to a few hundred quid.
I will get the ear defenders ready for when the BBC runs the story later today….
Evening all, have just got in from Greg’s book launch and ended up doing karaoke with Guido!!
Heard that early exit polls showed Brown lead by 15 pts - can anyone confirm - received text about that at 8.50 UK time.
Also, Intrade seems to be down? What price did Brown get to, was 79 when I looked earlier today.
Any Mass info gratefully received - will dig around for more useful links, don’t suppose there is any live TV coverage available on web?
Thanks!!
FPT:
Do we have an exit poll from Massachusetts?
Also where can I see a live running total of votes being reported?
Thanks.
Intrade is Down !!! I’m long on Brown so I don’t worry but still… Not good!
Brown 55% - Coakley 44% …after about 40,000 votes
7 - What station do you want? There are links to CSPAN and CNN on the previous thread.
no exit; only ras
8 - I’m using this http://atdhe.net/tv/watch_cnn.html posted FPT
The RCP blog seems to think Brown’s in trouble - hope they know what they’re talking about.
Have now added AP vote count.
RCP says Brown is down on Romney’s 2002 Gubernatorial total in several areas to report so far.
RCP suggesting Brown in trouble because he isn’t performing as well in the places that Romney (who was GOP gov of MA) won in 2002.
intrade was 83:17 seconds be4 crash
Early numbers not useful if we don’t know where they are coming from - meaningful analysis from comparing town to town.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_county/MA_US_Senate_0119.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
http://spreadsheets.google.com/lv?key=tarWMxL6HhLx8tn4SrZgbEg&type=view&gid=1&f=true&sortcolid=-1&sortasc=true&rowsperpage=353
According to the baseline - Coakley is ahead of what she needs in Concord, behind in Oxford. Both very small towns so not particularly helpful yet.
Maybe there isn’t an exit poll this time.
I’ve found a live running totals page from CNN:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/category/mass-senate/?hpt=T2
52% 47% latest.
51-49 to Brown on AP now
Brown 52%
Coakley 47% with about 100,000 votes counted
Early signs not good for Brown, but still too early…
Rasmussen say 22% of Dems voted for Scott Brown.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/massachusetts/first_look_at_massachusetts_election_night_poll_data
North Andover c. 11000 votes fully reported.
Coakley baseline needed 35% actually got 31%.
Having compared across a few towns seems to me that Coakley is failing to meet her baseline in GOP friendly areas but beating it in Dem areas.
Problem with this approach doesn’t factor in turnout differentials.
Dems have pulled it out thanks to Obama finally going after the banks a little. It turned the momentum against the republican.
Indeed Kieran; Coakley should score a big win in Boston - so Brown needs to chalk up big leads in rural and small town areas to match that boost she’ll get when the Boston result is in.
Another thing to keep an eye on - biggest town is Boston. It went 80% obama. So far nothing in. Really hard to tell whether Brown has an actual leads or GOP areas are reporting first.
Bloody exciting though
With regret I’m off to bed.
But before that, congratulations to Morus on the book and it’s launch.
Great to see Paul Maggs - Double Carpet - on the case.
And especially good to espy Jan from Norway at the tail end of the last thread.
Good night all.
Another full town in - Danvers.
c. 10000 votes. Coakley baseline needed 41% got 36%.
Comparing these as they come in - if Coakley wins I think its a but still very early. sqweaker
O/T but anyway FPT “the last thing this country needs is a presidential system”
The importance of televison creates a de facto Presidential system over time. Better to have a proper one with some actual democratic constraints built in imo.
27 Richie Rich
Dems have pulled it out thanks to Obama finally going after the banks a little. It turned the momentum against the republican.
Your time would be more profitably spent counting sheep on the Falkland Islands.
Sqweaker in the wrong place but you get the drift!
WBZ say “bottom is dropping off for Coakley. 50% of the Obama vote.”
http://www.wbz.com/
Boston only has 12% of precincts by number.
But what % of electorate does it have?
The Vox Pox of voters are all of ex-Dems voting for GOP but the numbers don’t yet support this.
37:
Boston City proper has 9.4% of the state’s population.
The wider Boston metro area has a whopping 61.2% of the state’s population, but I know that’s not what you were asking for.
Poor minority voter turnout reported, which would be similar to experience in New Jersey and Virginia…
Gap widening again
53% - 46% for Brown
WBZ radio host calls election for Scott Brown.
this seems to be very diff take to the RCP blog.
Look at the video of this! Someone showing a bit too much cheek!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1244454/Bobsleigh-rider-shows-cheeky-splits-pants-World-Championships.html
Another township in - Woburn c. 14,000 votes.
Coakley baseline 41%, actual 40%
Early Boston results not good for Coakley but don’t know if this is because of the specific areas that are reporting.
National Review’s Jim Geraghty:
“Obama Towns Are Flipping To Scott Brown. Early Night, Folks.
In 2008, Ashland, Massachusetts went for Obama over McCain, 5,039 votes to 3,181.
Tonight Brown won Ashland 54 percent to 45 percent - 3,467 for Brown while Coakley carried 2,897.
You can call it, folks.”
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmJlNWE5MTYyYTNmNTRlYWJhNDVkN2U2MWMzODg0NTA=
Belmont c. 11,000 votes.
Coakley baseline 58%, actual 59%
34. The islands are called Las Malvinas. Please don’t use the ‘f’ word when talking to me.
Suggest adding Boston Globe numbers, by tradition they give returns by town.
So far fragmentary returns, as to be expected. Coakley his holding her own in places like Concord, Framingham, Everett. However, Brown is outperforming recent GOP numbers in places like Oxford, Southhampton, Dudley.
Belmont in - Coakley 1% above break-even. Pretty close all round.
RCP still sounds very bearish for Brown, though…
RCP is comparing the special election of 10 with the last GOP victory in a Statewide election, the Gov race of 2002. Everybody else is comparing today with Obama’s win in 08, hence the gap in the tone.
48. Richie Rich: The islands are called Las Malvinas. Please don’t use the ‘f’ word when talking to me
Falklands off.
46 - Wouldn’t assume that. With uniform swing the Coakley baseline in Ashland is 47.8% (this is what she needs to win assuming the rest of the state swings the same). She is 3% behind but unless that is consistent it is meaningless. Certainly not good for Coakley though.
Romney won by 5 points, according to the FOAK (49.77 - 44.94)
INTRADE CAN @&¥£!!!
Impressive Coakley wins in the west. Comfortable margins also.
Brewster, slightly larger town - Coakley precisely on break-even mark at 47%.
Falklands
Coakley doesn’t need to do as well as Obama to win. BUT she cannot slip tooooooooo far.
Falmouth likewise - target 47, result 47.
54 - An example Great Barrington is now in (very small again) Coakley winning 77% compared to 84% for Obama. However her baseline to win here is 75%. I.e. just because she is behind the baseline in some towns doesn’t mean she will definitely lose.
60. SSI.
Coakley has a larger margin to lose from Obama than Brown does from Romney, though.
48. If you ask the people who live their Richie, they call it the Falklands: you and the Argentines are welcome to call them whatever you like but that wont make a blind bit of difference, unless you or they plan to take on the Royal marines again?
RCP - “Interesting. Boston precincts are starting to trickle in. With about 5% reporting, Coakley’s up 51%-48%.”
But I presume such a narrow margin in Boston is bad for Coakley?
56-43 in Boston City so far for Coakley; about 10% in. Obama scored roughly 80% here.
Easton Dem target 38, got 36.
Here’s a bit of guesswork:
Boston City has a population of about 620,000.
So I’d guess the 18+ population is about 465,000 (75%).
Registered voters are about 85% of the voting age population in Massachusetts, which would give about 395,000 registered voters in Boston City. (I know it’s probably a bit lower in Boston).
If turnout of registered voters is 40% there that would give about 158,000 voters.
So a 80% vote for the Democrats would be something like:
Dem - 126,400 (80%)
Rep - 30,020 (19%)
Ind - 1,580 (1%)
Democratic margin = roughly 100,000 votes
So GOP needs a 100,000 margin excluding Boston.
Where are people getting these Coakley targets from?
Romney won 50-45 statewide in 2002 governor race.
Boston now 56-43 - this is tight!!
“Coakley won Sudberry 51-48. Obama won here, 6,392 votes to 3,583 votes, 64.4 percent to 35.6 percent.
I hear a lot of nervous voices out there. I suppose a Coakley win is still theoretically possible, but she’s going to need to come up fantastically in the communities that have yet to report.”
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTUyYWYxMjQ2NGU4OGEzMzkzYjJkNjViZmEzNzQzNWE=
for coakley
64 - and to think Labour like to call the Conservatives unpatriotic.
Coakley a long way behind baseline for Haverhill - 18000 votes - 39% v 45%.
Would say there is a lean to Brown. Seen more towns where Coakley is behind the baseline than in front.
WBZ reporting Boston result as:
103,000 Coakley
46,000 Brown
75. Kieran.
Is it possible to do on-the-fly calculations to see if Coakley’s ahead or behind the baseline overall?
Fox news pundit calls this a lock for Brown.
I agree Andy, Brown needs to lead substantially to outweight Boston. I expect Coakley to take nearer the 60% mark there today when all districts have reported.
Note that RCP seem to have shifted their narrative now.
We now have 40% of precincts in.
Surely someone (not on this thread(!) but a US network with a computer) can calculate actual average swing from 2008 and compare to swing required.
Concur with Kieran - the reported Boston figures also a shade under par for Coakley.
“Dem strategist Mary Ann Marsh may not have meant to, but she pretty much called it.” (for Brown)
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MGNhMTA5OGY5ZTQ1MmRmYzc1NzkwYWI3YjE1OTJhODg=
Would be close to calling this to Brown. Coakley behind baseline in many towns.
Brown is holding to a 5% lead after about 37% of the votes in. That does it for me. Night all.
Coakley now up to 59-40 in Boston; the Brown-leaning ‘burbs need to declare to balance this out.
Incidentlaly, if those Boston numbers are complete, then it’s all about turnout there - Brown matching McCain, Coakkley falling short of Obama.
Interesting quote from Wikipedia on Boston:
“Since the 1950s with the advent of white flight the proportion of whites in the city has declined with the city becoming minority-majority in the 2000 Census. Surprisingly, a 2006 Census estimate suggests that this trend may have reversed, with whites again occupying a slight majority.”
Well I’m going to stick my neck out (ready for egg on face) and predict that Brown will win.
45% precincts in but only 20% of Boston.
Boston gradually improving for Coakley - 59% to 40% is the latest. Going to be very closer than I expected.
Dracut, a typical 10000 voter town splits 70-29 for Brown. He needs more results like this to balance Boston.
WBZ reporting:
52% vs 47%
67,000 vote difference
“If that number includes Boston, then it’s over for Coakley”
US networks are a bit rubbish when it comes to swing - it’s not a concept they seem to understand (or if they do they don’t like to talk about it).
Coakley vote so far is about 22% down on Kennedy?
Well if it’s a very close result there’s always the chance of legal action, which would keep the seat Democratic in the interim.
Hmm, several big towns overperforming for Coakley - Medford, Newton, Quincy.
93. Seems odd. At a UK GE we would immediately calculate average swing even just on say first 5 or 10 seats and extrapolate pretty accurately.
Fall River 18k voters Coakley baseline 62% vs 57% actual.
Not doing well enough in both GOP and Dem areas. Don’t think Boston is enough to save.
Boston 35% in, Coakley leads 61-38.
Overall 57%, Brown 53-46.
Nailbiter.
But more Nick still underperforming. I wouldn’t say Brown has a lock nor that this race is able to be called. But with over half of precincts now in Brown has maintained a 5% lead. Coakley needs to stack em up in Boston now or she’s lost.
78,000 vote margin for Brown, 57% reporting, 52.7% to 46.3%…
u r wrong : Brown wins handily
93/96. Sounds like a project for the midterms…
Suprisingly, the 52/47 split is not moving with nearly half precincts in (alhough only about a quarter in Boston). It seems difficult for Coakley to win….
BBC News 24 has effectively called the election for Brown.
WBZ Radio:
57% precincts reporting.
53 Brown :46 Coakley
NY Times has Brown 78,000 ahead with 57% reporting (52.7 to 46.3)
95 - I don’t think by enough though. Getting closer and closer to calling it for Brown. Gap is getting wider.
Boston; Brown down to 38% now.
Coakley’s percentage margin in Boston keeps increasing as more precincts report.
But Dartmouth and Framingham under par. Guess on result: Brown by 51-48.
Brown’s lead is currently 87,000 - with Boston 37% now in; looking like enough to see him through.
If Brown wins, I wonder if Gordon will do a message on congratulation to him at PMQ’s?
From Gordons point of view it could take 10-20 seconds out of it! Thats on top of troop deaths and the earthquake victims: Maybe Brown will start reading out all the names?
Brown 7 point lead; 63% counted
New Bedford 20k votes - Coakley baseline 64%, actual 59%.
Unless the remaining Boston results are 80:20 in Coakley’s favour Brown has won.
WBZ
Brown has 85,000 vote lead.
“no close call. This is an enormous win”
Agree with Kieran - looks pretty sure now.
Coakley… Chokeley… Croakley
“If Brown should win today’s special election, you can believe the most extreme analysis on the craziest [right-wing] cable show. In Massachusetts, voters saw what Obama is doing and went out to stop it.”
-Margaret Carlson (prominent left-wing journalist)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a5G2a5TmX5hU
New York Times - results map:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/01/19/us/politics/massachusetts-election-map.html
AH, good to see Norfolk result just come in - Brown takes it by 70-29 … my other “local” result in Yarmouth was 59-40 to Brown.
103 - Now it has moved in the wrong direction for Coakley! 53/46. I think it is probably over…
Brown wins fox news
1 area to keep an eye on: Cambridge 1/33 precincts in and has gone 88:11 for Coakley
WBZ at Brown HQ
“Not just a win, a blow out”
114/116.
Referring back to the previous thread, if only we could reach consensus on the results within 70 minutes of the close of polls on 6th May!
WBZ - well, hardly - if this was a British parliamemtary seat then an 85,000 would be big but Brown’s win is likely to be between 3-5%. Sizemic stuff.
RCP:
9:05pm — Ouch. O’Brien beat Romney 67%-29% in working class Fall River. Coakley was 57%-41%. Double ouch. New Bedford is 59%-39% Coakley. These working class towns are making up for relatively mediocre Brown showings in the suburbs. - Sean Trende
RCP suggests that good Brown results in working class districts has smoothed over only reasonable ones in the ‘burbs.
126/127.
Snap!
This is the most stunning American electoral upset I’ve ever seen in a race of this importance and magnitude. Period.
Boston getting worse and worse for Brown, now 64-35 but the rural and small town results seem to be cushioning those results.
Brown up by 89,000 …
Today’s big losers: Zogby; Intrade; Obama
Just a side-note to throw into what will surely be endless analysis.
Although the Republicans have a very poor record in MA, women have an even poorer one having NEVER won a statewide election. Although, Hilary did win the primary. Women have lost the last two gubernatorial elections. Dems will be kicking themselves, victory margin looks decisive but probably could have been overcome with a competent campaign.
Another Rogerdamus moment?
Dems have pulled it out thanks to Obama finally going after the banks a little. It turned the momentum against the republican.
by Richie Rich January 20th, 2010 at 1:31 am
131- Congratulations, Philippe!
Democrats win Shutesbury with 83%.
That is for me folks, I said I wouldn’t last beyond 2am … school in the morning
Goodnight and I am calling the MA Special Election for Scott Brown, GOP Gain
It would appear that the only difference to the general election for the democrats was that the minorities stayed at home whereas they got out and voted for Obama on the basis of his rhetoric and dare i say it his colour.
In my view, had the democrats had a black guy or woman on the dem ticket they would have won as the minority vote would have come out to vote for one of their own.
But massachusetts Brown was a good candidate who came across well whereas his opponent was a ditherer who took support for granted. Heard that sentiment before somewhere….not the Brown was a good candidate bit!
The trend of votes counted positive for Brown. BUT Coakley has disproportionate strength in votes left to county. Question is, has Brown built up enough of a lead to hold on when all are counted?
Likely answer is yes. But perhaps more definite verdict when I get back from the corner store!
Labour to prepare new election broadcast: “Hi, I’m Gordon Brown. This is my truck.”
132- Martha Coakley won a statewide election, to the office she currently occupies.
Over two-thirds in, Brown still leads by 7.
Boston over half in, Coakley by 66-33.
WBZ
Coakley concedes (via boston globe)
Boston Globe story.
Coakley cocedes
http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/01/polls_open_in_s_1.html
140 - Sorry wasn’t specific enough, I meant an election for senate or governor. Also, think very few women have ever represented the state in congress at all.
Wrong Boston Globe link! Sorry.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/01/live_coverage_o.html
129. S&S: This is the most stunning American electoral upset I’ve ever seen in a race of this importance and magnitude. Period.
If the GOP goes on to make significant inroads in the midterms I think you’ll have earned the right to gloat!
LOooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooOL
The Slack Jawed Democrat lost!
Though this is the only election i want a Brown to win this year!
We shouldn’t neglect the impact Scott Brown’s victory will have in the UK. It will top or near-top the news bulletins tomorrow and be billed as a ’surprise’ defeat for Obama. The talking heads will be blaming the defeat on Obama’s health spending and neglect of the recession and the US’s growing debt. There will be “lessons for the other Brown”. It will all add to Labour’s woes.
There’s a town next to Boston called Brookline which hasn’t reported at all yet, but it only has a population of 60,000 so probably won’t make much difference.
Also next to Boston is Watertown which hasn’t reported yet - pop=33,000.
Obama = One Term POTUS!
146- Well, there’s a lot of road between now and then! We shall see what we shall see…
But I really can’t suggest to you any other race bearing such singular national importance, that I’ve ever seen, that resulted in such an improbable outcome. I admit that, even a week ago, I saw a GOP win here as impossible.
AP calls it for Brown.
105,000 ahead.
I’m waiting for my £130 cheque. Good old Scott.
We’re good at reading those early returns - perhaps we should offer a specialist US results service.
Anyway - impressive GOP result, congrats to S&S! Night all…
Associated Press calls it for Brown.
AP has now called it.
Time for me to go to bed and to try not to wake up the GF! :s
148 - Rubbish. It will be a story but not one that will affect domestic politics. Only political geeks will care about a senatorial election in Massachusetts! It also has little impact on US foreign policy - again not many Brits will care about US health care. You could just as much argue that the headline ‘Underdog Brown Wins Famous Victory’ would benefit Labour.
CNN calls it for Brown
148- What a way for Obama to celebrate his one-year anniversary as president, as of noon tomorrow…
CNN calls Massachusetts for Brown
“There’s a town next to Boston called Brookline which hasn’t reported at all yet,…”
JFK’s birthplace
I wish we could have these running totals in British elections!
151. You were doubting it yesterday S7S. I couldn’t convince you otherwise
Thanks Rod. Interesting piece of info about JFK which I didn’t know.
154- Thank you, Nick, and quite a day: Chris Christie was sworn in as governor of New Jersey earlier today.
A great victory for the GOP and a dreadful night for Democrats, I think Coakley would be lucky to even get on the Democratic ballot for dog-catcher now. In the long term though it may not be so bad for them, after all the big drag for Obama, healthcare, is now going to be heavily diluted at best and the GOP won’t be able to
have so much to campaign on in the mid-terms. In the long-term it may be a valuable lesson!
163- It is a shock, a complete shock. The impossible just became possible.
Congrats to you too, Sir! This year promises to be interesting. Guys: keep a close watch on PPP for the midterms: STUNNING POLLSTER!
154. what do you mean Nick? I called it for Scott Brown day’s ago.
So lots of stay at homers in Boston’s urban areas, those who are cheesed off about the lack of job investment and the fact they are still in Iraq fighting a lost cause and losing lots of young people.
Even Afghanistan is a waste of time to many when they cannot put food on their table.
Makes sense. This is a protest vote, not a pro republican vote, as many votes for Cameron will similarly be in May.
Hopefuly Obama who is dithering like browen ghets the message or he will be out on his ear, as the minorities will not vote in droves for him next time when to most observers he has achieved little. A pity as he had a chance to do some good.
There is a lesson for Brown in London. How does he get those people that are soft for him having failed to deliver to come out and vote for him when the option is perceived as almost as bad, worse by some the further north you go, yet people want to kick you out as the incumbent?
Kieran @157: “It will be a story but not one that will affect domestic politics”
That depends what happens next. Not hard to imagine something like this:
1) House Democrats get scared and fail to pass healthcare
2) Obama ratings tank
3) Other Dem legislation stalls
4) GOP win back House
5) GOP win back presidency
The big question is whether the number (1) domino will fall…
168 - On this occasion. Not so hot in NY-23.
is INTRADE still down?
171 - I meant UK politics not US!
Will have a MASSIVE impact on US domestic politics. Healthcare is now procedurally possible (House passes Senate bill) but not politically possible.
Anybody writing Obama off is stupid - just like those who wrote Clinton off in 1994. The big question is how does he respond? Also, think the economy is vital and that might be out of his hands.
“There are a lot of signs that the Ds are going to go on an anti-Wall Street jag to try to save themselves. If their political assumptions are correct, shouldn’t the bank tax—which Brown opposed—have worked better for Coakley?”
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NGU1MTJlMjhmMTEwNmYxZTAzMzNmZmRhYjQxNDdkMGE=
k–they adknowledged what they did wrong!
171 - Having re-read maybe you mean this might have long-term consequences for the UK, which is obviously possible.
176 - That’s ok then! Seriously though, they have done well this time to be so accurate.
Sorry Kieran, should have read the post you were replying to before I replied to your reply.
I agree, it’ll have bugger all impact on the UK.
166- The only positive from this for the Dems will be if this forces them to moderate their approach and take a less extreme course. However, if it merely causes more of their initiatives to fail, they won’t be rewarded for that in November.
157 Kieran
Did we not get live television coverage of Ted Kennedy’s funeral on the UK channels?
The Beeb might hold back but I can’t see the rest of the media following suit.
Let’s discuss again tomorrow night.
“I have no interest in sugar coating what happened in Massachusetts. There is a lot of anxiety in the country right now. Americans are understandably impatient” — Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Robert Menendez.
180 - What the voters did today was simply restore what they voted for in 2006 and 2008, they never voted for a filibuster proof majority which was achieved by Specter’s defection. Ultimately Coakley ran a crap candidate against an excellent and moderate GOP candidate. This was not a cue for a Tea Party landslide in 2010/2012 either. The Democrats still have a bigger Senate majority than W ever had and today Obama met with Voinovich, who knows where that may lead? I expect this will be followed by GOP gains in the mid-terms but I still see no guarantee of GOP control let alone a guaranteed President Romney, Palin or Huckabee in 2012!
183 - I think Romney is now a lock for the GOP nomination though through his support for Brown!
183- What this could do, however, is seriously shake the confidence of Democratic members of Congress, driving red state Dems into the bushes and away from Obama, and further undermining Obama’s ability to move any kind of agenda.
“Sen. Jim Webb (D., Va.) tells CNN: It is “only be fair and prudent that we suspend further votes on health care legislation until Brown is seated.”"
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTU5MWI3ODczYmY0ZmE5MjZlZTZmZjIxZWM2Y2Y0Y2Y=
Maybe, finally, the American people are sick of starting wars to save democracy in otrehr parts of the world, and will start looking after their own people number 1.
The U.S. needs to focus at home and not abroad. I think that is the message.
Elena Baltacha through to round 3!!
“OBAMA: ‘WE CAN’T WIN THEM ALL’…”
Is that really the best he can come up with, at a moment like this?
183. Yeah, I gotta go with you on that one–this isn’t necessarily the tolling bell for Obama himself. Remember that the Democrats got absolutely slaughtered in the 1994 midterms, then Clinton went on to handily win the 1996 election against a weak opponent. If the economy recovers, Obama can recover too.
What it does mean is that health care reform is dead. Which is good in that the existing plan was about as grotesque as that maggot baby Geena Davis gives birth to in “The Fly,” but bad in that the existing system is generally a rip-off and is going from bad to worse, rather like Jeff Goldblum in the aforesaid. I was hoping that I’d never have to hear somebody plot to pull out their tooth using a doorknob and a string again, but I guess unorthodox molar extraction methods are just one of those things that are a fact of life.
i’m feeling a huge testosterone rush as a side effect of this gains, but im pissed at Intrade. How can they be so unstable? Crashing just b4 the results?
189 -no humility! It’s tempting now to forecast a GOP presidential victory for 2012! Too tempting
Vox populi, vox dei. And she’s a bitchhhe all right!
Congraluations to S&S and other winners.
i hope intrade wont void any bets!
ssi — s&s called it 4 Coakley, along wt Richard Nabavi, tim n Zogby!
Deep joy. Super. Smashing. Luvverly, luvverly, luvverly, luvverly in all manner of luvverliness.
Obama’s ability to screw the USA completely has just been reined in somewhat.
I agree wholeheartedly with what I think jsfl said a couple of threads ago - that the message here is for incoming leaders to focus only on what the people are concerned about and not to go off on some self-serving ideological wankfest.
Obama should forget about health and cap-n-trade and worry instead about fixing the still broken US banks and the scary levels of deficit and debt.
After Dave gets elected in May he should also focus right away on fixing the still broken UK banks and deficit / debt above all else.
I also see a pretty close analogy with UK politics here. This is not really the victory of the Republicans so much as the victory of the Tea Party movement who have been happy to lend the Republican candidate their votes for a while if that is what it takes to stop the rot. In the UK Dave will get a lot of votes from those who may not really be Tories but rightly see the Tories as the only vehicle with which to evict Gordon Brown from No.10. A very high turnout (as in MA) will see a big Tory vote – but much of it will not be firm thereafter.
…and I’ll say again that I think Obama will not get re-elected in 2012 as he is too arrogant and ideologically driven to do a Clinton and go centrist…
193- Well, once again, politics has become very interesting in the U.S. The coming days and weeks should be fascinating.
“Congressional strategists had warned in the closing days of the Massachusetts Senate race that a Coakley defeat had the potential to trigger a series of retirements within the Democratic ranks as members flee a political wave that could wash out dozens in the House and high single digits on the Senate side.
“My message to my clients? Jump ship now,” said one Democratic operative who advises a number of targeted Members of Congress. “Obama can’t help you.”"
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/scott-brown-wins-massachusetts-senate-race.html?hpid=topnews
“NBC’s Luke Russert tweets:
Almost to a man, rank and file House Dems have said tonight they will NOT vote for the Senate bill.”
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjQzYzZmNTNiZTA3NzBhYTBjMzZmMjY2ZTc4NjE0NGE=
well said patrick!
i suggest that for the next month we address S&S as Zogby!
Stars & Zogby…
One Democratic party official quoted by the Washington Post: “[this is] one of the worst debacles in American political history.”
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/scott-brown-wins-massachusetts-senate-race.html?hpid=topnews
196. It’s out of Obama’s control. If the economy is good, he’s got a chance. If it’s bad, he’s doomed. If the Mayan apocalypse occurs, everyone is dead! (I am curious to see what effect Brown’s socially conservative positions have on Massachusetts; will he be able to advance any sort of conservative agenda, or is he basically going to give up on that at the start?)
I do have to tell you that your analysis comparing the Cameroons to the Democrats allows for the swift resurrection of New Labour. Complete with a weeping Peter Mandelson.
202- Philippe, don’t make me come to Thailand and track you down!
People are talking about the healthcare bill, but of rather more international importance is the passage of the various pieces of energy legislation which may be derailed. Issues such as carbon trading, green energy funding and the automotive industry all stand to be affected by this election. Here in China this is causing considerably more interest.
204 Diane
During the presidential race, the Campaign Spot blog at National Review suggested Obama wouldn’t win re-election, because unemployment would peak on his watch. (recession having begun during Bush administration.)
ok Zogby, i’ll have a nap now!
Hey, S&S, I’ve got a boxcar full of classic “Don’t Blame Me I’m from Massachusetts” bumper stickers. Reckon market among pointy-headed lefties has just about collapsed. BUT new market now emerging among your fellow wacko rightwingers. Suggest that you send me say $50k via Mike S, and I ship you these family heirlooms via UPS.
209- Wackos do love bumper stickers…
Wow! I’m absolutely thrilled. MA going Republican would be like Kensington & Chelsea going Labour - well, not quite: MA elected four GOP governors in a row, from 1990 till 2006: 16 consecutive years; but a GOP Senate victory is nevertheless remarkable.
S&S: I guess Delaware, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Nevada, Colorado will move from left to right this November. What’s your prediction as to Senate and House?
207. Do you have a link? I’d argue otherwise–that the state of the economy around the time of the election itself is much more influential than past ups and downs–but this may be one of those pieces of trivia that proves right every time.
I repeat, has anyone seen Ted William’s head recently?
And could there be any creediance to rumor (being spread by my ouija board) that Pat Robinson was seen carrying said head through a creepy old graveyard in North Attleboro, Mass. The home of Joe Martin (remember him) which has yet to report a single vote.
Coincidence? Conspiracy? Celtics?
As for the Democratic health care bill (which in my opinion seems rather coercive and may even turn out to be unconstitutional, for the first time using the commerce clause to regulate INactivity instead of activity), there apear to be three options:
- Win over Olympia Snowe (GOP Senator from Maine): not likely.
- The House could pass the current version of the Senate bill: too pro-abortion for pro-life Democrats and not interventionist enough for left-wing Democrats in the House, so not likely either.
- Pass the bill before Scott Brown is seated: Jim Webb and Joe Lieberman already expressed their opposition, so not likely.
S&S, what’s your take? Is the health care reform dead, or will there be a bipartisan bill, involving tort reform, private health savings accounts with high-deductible insurance, cross-state insurance trade, more competition and deregulation, just like the GOP suggests?
211- I will definitely revisit my long-standing predictions, in light of this watershed election. This is a big deal, make no mistake about it.
I have been predicting, for over a year now, that the GOP would gain about 25 House seats and 2 Senate seats next year. Without the benefit of careful consideration, I would hazard to say that these numbers do look a bit antiquated now and I could probably safely add about 5-10 seats to the House total and about three to the Senate total to create a new likely centers of the probable ranges for the House and Senate.
214- I may have to answer you later, libertarian, as it is late! Very good topics, though.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyharnden/100022887/barack-obamas-one-year-presidency/
“1. Health care reform is dead. Even if there was (and it’s doubtful) some procedural way the Democrats could push it through, such a move would be political suicide.”
Hey I just wanted to let you know that if your looking for Namecheap coupon codes to check out our
[url=http://www.squidoo.com/namecheapcoupons]namecheap coupon site[/url].
Enjoy!
[img]http://freeebayimagehost.com/images/hate.gif[/img]