What does the Brighton poll say about tactical voting?
December 29th, 2009
Brighton Pavilion Poll:
CON 27% (+4)
LAB 25% (-13)
LD 11% (-5)
GRN 35% (+14)
Is it about who is best placed to impede the Tories?
I’ve now got the full dataset from the ICM poll of the Brighton Pavillion constituency which suggests that the party could win its first ever Westminster MP at the general election - the headline figures, with comparisons on the 2005 general election in the seat.
But it’s the detail of the poll that could have CCHQ worried. For this shows even in a current Labour-held seat a great readiness by those who supported Blair’s party in 2005 to switch and use their vote in a way that might most hinder the Tories.
Thus while only 52% of 2005 Labour voters are sticking with the party 27% say they are voting Green. This is even more acute with the Lib Dems where 29% of the 2005 voters now plan to vote for the Green candidate, the party leader, Caroline Lucas. It’s these big movements which are behind the headline figures.
What the mere fact of having the poll is likely to do is to reinforce further the Green’s position as the party that can stop the Tories thus encouraging more tactical switching - hence the reason why the Green party commissioned it and are making it public.
The dynamic shown here is probably good news for the Lib Dems in three-way marginals. If they can show that they are best placed to stop the Tories then you can see a lot of Labour switching - even in seats currently held by Brown’s party.
It should be noted that the sample size was just 533 which with all the other calculations comes out at about 5%.
I’ve just got another £100 bet on, this time at 6/4, with Victor Chandler that the Greens will win a seat at the general election. It looks good to me.
Mike Smithson
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First
I presume this will be particularly strong amongst Labour voters in places like Eastleigh and Lib Dems in Scotland where theres no Lib Dem incumbent.
Labour slogan
Vote Blue, Get Green?
I’d suspect this is a slightly special case, by virtue of the greens being an alternative to the Tories who are neither Labour nor LibDem
Where it’s just the 3 main parties running (or in with a shout) there might be rather less “tactical voting” This is also the 1st GE where the Greens have had a chance of winning the seat, which will gain votes by virtue of it not being a wasted vote this time.
There will still be a fair bit of anti Tory tactical voting across the country. It will just be less than last time and more balanced by anti labour voting this time
There are several factors.
1. she’s the leader and MEP with a fairly high profile.
2. it’s the Greens’ best prospect, and they performed credibly in 2005.
3. the Greens so far are untainted by expenses.
Alltogether it spells 4th party win to me.
Mike.
Did they weight by voting last time, and just out of interest, how much would a telephone poll of 500 in a single constituency cost?
I can’t think of any better way for the anti Tory parties in individual seats to spend their money.
This could make the election if rolled out to many seat but it wont - very interesting all the same.
How many seats could this sort of thing be done in though?
Realistically not party propoganda? I shouldn’t imagine many!
Especially as the new spending rules after 1st January comes in (Unless you are an MP of course and you can keep the Communications allowance going!). Green party have been very intellegent in doing this before 1st Jan 2010!!!
Mike, what about the vote that is best placed to remove Labour from government? That is where the tactical will catch people out time and again in this GE, its what will drive the swing to the Tories where it matters. The ‘who is best placed to hinder the Tories’ theme will be about carving up the level of Labour defeat IMHO.
FPT….
298 Richard
Those odds look about right. The big imponderable is Cruddas. If he holds his seat in Dagenham and Rainham, I would rate his chances about 20%, and scale down the Ms accordingly. I suspect he won’t hold D&R though, so your current estimate of 8% looks about right.
On election nite, I will lump on Cruddas IF it looks like he has held on.
The big question is how far the support for the Greens by ex-Labour voters is tactical voting (’Keep out the Tories’), and how far it is a protest vote (’I'd like to vote Labour but don’t like the direction the party has taken’).
If the former, then as Mike suggests that might be bad news for the Tories in some seats, and good news for the LibDems. If the latter, it’s bad news for Labour (and the LibDems), as non-Tory votes will be split and the LibDems won’t pick up the protest votes which they might have expected.
Of course, we should bear in mind that Brighton Pavilion is a very special case, so we should be cautious about reading too much across to the country in general.
5: Another factor -
4. This is Brighton we’re talking about. Epicentre of ecoenviorgreenies
Mike, could you get Angus Reid to do this kind of survey in say Eastleigh and Watford.
I think those seats could tell us more about tactical voting than Brighton Pavillion.
Polly B posted an interesting comment on the last thread:
I think the prospect of a national government is an interesting one, worth serious consideration. Cameron has clearly positioned himself to lead such a government if necessary. It could shake up the political kaleidoscope in just the way we need. I don’t think Cameron’s new year address was given sufficient analysis; it was just treated to knee-jerk refutation by Clegg and the LibDems. A shallow response to a much more nuanced stance than it was given credit for. Cameron is not just the change agent for the Conservatives, I genuinely think he wants to reconfigure the shape of the party political landscape. The kind of stuff Clegg talks about but does not deliver on.
Of course Brown intended to govern from his big tent, before retreating to the bunker …
by PollyB December 29th, 2009 at 7:14 pm
“Lib Dem poll setback for Cameron”
“An online survey by the Liberal Democrat Voice website asked readers who, of the two, they least wanted to be prime minister. Forty-two per cent said Mr Brown, while 58 per cent named the Tory leader as their least preferred PM.”
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Lib-Dem-poll–setback.5941991.jp
5. Incidentally, under AV it could become a very safe seat for the Greens…
I think it says an awful lot about the demographics of the seat. It was clear, after 2005, that the Greens had a chance to win one of the country’s most left-wing constituencies, which has been trending against the Conservatives for decades. I predicted a Green victory here some time ago.
It doesn’t say anything about the respective chances of the Greens and the Conservatives in a seat like say, Chester, or Ipswich.
‘Stop the Tories’ is a much easier message in a really trendy leftie constituency, if it can be combined with ‘chuck the useless government out’ as well. There’s a much higher smug-factor involved when you can exercise your civic duty by voting but don’t have to bear any of the responsibility for what follows (unless Lucas is spotted fox-hunting or something).
8.tactical voting. Doh.
Good news! This is one way of concentrating the anti-Tory vote. Could happen in hundreds of constituencies. There is no love of the Tories out there.
14 - That’s a voodoo poll and you know it, and you know we know that you know it.
14 The fact that 42% of Lib Dem activists would prefer Cameron is pretty good news for Cameron.
fpt
Back to work and back to be revolted by Gordon Brown’s government being “angry” at the chinese.
Two problems I can think of
1) Gordon and flunkies e.g milliband have spent the past 13 years desperately sucking up to the Chinese regardless of their human rights record(actually knowing Labour’s authoritarian ways they were probably swapping surveillance state techniques)
2) However they decided to spend last week insulting the Chinese in a failed attempt to look green.
Given the long term obedience of the UK under Labour inevitably the Chinese just laughed and I am sure sending the ambassador to see Ivan Lewis/ David Milliband had them quaking.
The sad truth is we have fallen so far in International standing under Labour that dictatorships like China and Iran now just laugh at us(as do the Americans, German’s and French). The lesson is if you are a British Citizen don’t dare and travel anywhere remotely hostile as our Government is such a joke they will be of no help whatsoever.
Of course the other Lesson is being a member of the EU held no sway whatsoever, with China as they knew France/Germany etc would not back Britain.
by voreas December 29th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
16.”It doesn’t say anything about the respective chances of the Greens and the Conservatives in a seat like say, Chester, or Ipswich.”
Or the incumbent Libdems in marginal seats where the Tories are the main rival.
Supports the view that 2010 election is going to be very volatile.
I highly reccommend this paper that discusses how people make complex decisions (which is what voting is)
http://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/html/commissioned_work/downloads/CSIRO_AFTS_Behavioural_economics_paper.pdf
Apart from the political implications I am not sure whether to be comforted or depressed with the summary finding which is that humans are lazy, greedy and fearful but essentially moral beings.
On the political implications I think 20101 vote decisions will be a heady brew of elimination (definitely won’t vote xx…), tradition (always done xx so will do it again…) and confusion (all bar stewards so won’t vote, will vote xxx…)
FPT. My assessments of next Labour leader, assuming Brown leads Labour into opposition in the Spring:
Ed Miliband 28%
David Miliband 22%
Harriet Harman 18%
Ed Balls 9%
Jon Cruddas 8%
James Purnell 4%
Alan Johnson 3%
Andy Burnham 3%
Alistair Darling 2%
Jack Straw 1%
Lord Mandelson 1%
Any other 1%
When was the field work for this poll carried out, seems daft to choose the Christmas holidays?
12 - Not Eastleigh, the nature of the Conservative Candidate makes that a seat where decent Tories will abstain or vote to keep out the Tory.
Eastbourne might be interesting.
re 14 Gabble is your finger a bit sore from all the mouse clicking you had to do to get the numbers up to those levels?
27 - Don’t forget the hard work Mr Senior must have done to get the figures up to that level too
26. tim December 29th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
I actually think you read that seat entirly wrong. I noticed something recently in Huhne and his body language that indicated he knows he has had it.
26. Smear alert.
26 - Tim, you must stop mistaking your opinions as facts.
BP has - as we all know [and in local cases have experienced] serious studenty greenie tendencies - I’d be very surprised if there’s much anti-Tory swing vote since most are already in the lentil knitting camp - only the shy Tory vote may muddy the waters.
Lucas has a good chance - particularly with the anti-establishent/expenses brigade.
12 - Scrub Eastbourne.
York Outer and Watford would be the best two.
26 Don’t you feel from Labour’s point of view they would rather be beaten by the Tories in Pavilion than the Greens on the grounds it would be far easier to recover in the future from them than from the Greens, in much the same way that St Albans proved far easier to recover from Labour for the Tories than in all likelihood had the Lib Dems won as expected from 2nd place in 97.
6 - “I can’t think of any better way for the anti Tory parties in individual seats to spend their money.”
Ha ha ha, tim. Whereas Labour voters may well flock to vote Green to keep the Tories out, it won’t work in reverse. Ask Green or Lib Dem voters (as opposed to activists) to vote for Gordon Brown and New Labour and they’ll laugh in your face.
The Tories will fail to gain Brighton Pavilion (a Labour seat, remember) because of tactical voting - but they’ll win dozens of Labour seats because of it.
re 6. Tim - the poll was past vote weighted in the standard ICM fashion. As to how much it would cost I’d say not more than £10,000 may be quite a bit less. As you say - a great way for the Greens to spend their money.
25.Methodology
*ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 533 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 16-21st December 2009. Interviews were conducted across the political constituency of Brighton Pavilion and the results have been weighted to the profile of all Brighton Pavilion adults
33. tim December 29th, 2009 at 7:26 pm
The best anti-Labour poster yet - from conservative home.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/12/the-best-antilabour-poster-yet.html
what do you think ?
25.From the Greens website:
*ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 533 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 16-21st December 2009. Interviews were conducted across the political constituency of Brighton Pavilion and the results have been weighted to the profile of all Brighton Pavilion adults.
Very odd dates. It’s taken over a long time too.
Does that mean its poltically weighted or just demographically weighted?
4. I tend to agree. This looks like no more than left-wing voters deserting their usual two choices out of disillusionment to me. I have a few quid on the Greens in Brighton so am happy enough, but I doubt this poll has any broader significance.
Out of interest Mike where are the extra Tory votes coming from? What share of former Lib Dem voters are leaning Conservative this time?
38. Do we know what the question wording was?
While ’stop the Tories’ may have some traction in Brighton (I take it no-one thinks the Green Party have a programme likely to attract voters) ’stop Labour’ is the national mood.
” …53% would be angry or disappointed at news of a Labour win.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/16/cameron-closing-deal-icm-poll
I think the Lib-Dems have the most to worry about a Green win in Brighton.
re 8. I agree - we could see a fair bit of anti-Labour tactical voting as well in specific seats.
It’s going to be a very complex election.
Mike
The striking feature of this poll is that there is still a big chunk of LD and Labour vote left for the Greens to squeeze. I think they should be odds on now. I’ve backed them in from 9/2, so I’m a happy bunny and won’t be investing any more on this particular seat but I will have another look at the next couple of Green targets, Norwich South and…..er…..er…..
32 - Even some Tories on here who met the Eastleigh Candidate at conference were appalled.
But I tell you what, lets have a bet - £50 that Huhnes Majority is 3000 or more.
34 Yes. If they lose to the Greens, they’ll never get it back. If they lose to the Conservatives, they can hope that the pendulum will swing back to them.
It works the other way, also. Had the Conservatives lost St. Alban’s or Hasting to the Lib dems in 1997, they could expect to be polling 40% or so in each seat, but the Lib Dems could expect to poll 50% or so, with Labour totally out of contention. By losing to Labour, they were able to regain the one in 2005, and will regain the other in 2010.
Here’s the detail on the LibDem Voice voodoo poll:
In the event of Nick Clegg not forming a government after the next election, who do you *least want* to be Prime Minister in a year’s time?
Gordon Brown: 42% (468 votes)
David Cameron: 58% (638 votes)
Total Votes: 1106 Poll ran: 16th November – 26th December 2009
http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldv-readers-say-we-least-want-david-cameron-to-be-the-next-prime-minister-17361.html
40. johnno December 29th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
Surely I should be best anti- LD poster of the year?!!!!
37 - And I note the timing of the spend.
Very smart.
Re 41. Just seen Mike up thread.
Rod - the Brighton question was: “Labour, the Conservatives, the Green Party, the Liberal Democrats and other parties will fight a new election in 2010 in your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?”
So the Greens were mentioned specifically unlike normal national polls.
I agree with Anthony Wells - I think that in this special seat where the Greens are strong that this was fair.
38.”Interviews were conducted across the political constituency of Brighton Pavilion and the results have been weighted to the profile of all Brighton Pavilion adults”
SallyC, thanks. What is ICM’s track record on constituency polling?
47. tim December 29th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
Declined!
I lost loads of money on the election date!
Though I have bet on some seats when i was shit faced that should pay out favourably!
No more betting for me as I dont have the money if i lose!
Good News! The anti-Tory vote can be galvanised with the subtle application of the ‘who is best place to stop them tactic.’
53. And they were mentioned in order of finishing in 2005, which is interesting…
48. Thanks. I also agree with you on 16.
56 Your problem is the anti-Gordon vote.
50,martin,how true,should we now be looking at the lib dems on 16%
I remember Tims previous “Predictions” like Flintoff should be dropped from the ashes. I think like that one most of his forecasts need to be looked at as the thoughts of a man who just constantly gets it wrong. No wonder he is so twisted.
45.Mike, totally agree. Its going to be very complex, and that is going to make it the most exciting GE night for many years.
46 - Lewisham Deptford is the 3rd official national Green target (well, for the England and Wales party), Peter. They wont win it but will be aiming to put themselves in a good position to challenge in future.
44 Disagree. Their strength in Brighton has always been minimal. If the Greens broke through in Norwich South that would have serious implications for the Lib Dems and their University seats. Expect therefore that no matter who actualy wins Norwich South though they would no doubt love to their prime objective will be really to stall any Green progress.
60. johnno December 29th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
Indeed! It would not surprise me if they are in the 14-16% bracket this next time round. They might hold onto some seats that would go on a swing like that so not yellow taxi but close!
61 - If thats the case, you’ll want the bet if TSE turns it down.
I’d want some security though.
63 Really? Wow. Things must have changed an awful lot since I was a regular around there back in early 90s.
re 42. The LD 2005 voting sample was just 50 so it’s hard to head too much into it. But according to the data this split: CON 10%; LAB 14%: LD 26%: GRN 27%
So the Lib Dems were getting only about a quarter of their 2005 vote.
Picking up on Martin Day’s idea of a national government from the last thread - I think the prospect is an interesting one, worth serious consideration. Cameron has clearly positioned himself to lead such a government if necessary. It could shake up the political kaleidoscope in just the way we need. I don’t think Cameron’s new year address was given sufficient analysis; it was just treated to knee-jerk refutation by Clegg and the LibDems. A shallow response to a much more nuanced stance than it was given credit for. Cameron is not just the change agent for the Conservatives, I genuinely think he wants to reconfigure the shape of the party political landscape. The kind of stuff Clegg talks about but does not deliver on.
Of course Brown intended to govern from his big tent, before retreating to the bunker …
47 - Oh, I’ve already backed Huhne to hold on Eastleigh.
Eastleigh would be a good place to poll due to the large Labour vote their, I’d love to see how they are planning to vote, if they are planning to vote
Watford may be a moot point now, due to Lord Ashcroft saving Watford FC, but would have loved to have seen how a 3 way fight would turn out.
56 This is an unusual constituency, where both the anti-Labour and anti-Conservative vote can be galvanised behind one candidate.
Most marginal seats, though, are Conservative v Labour, and that’s where Labour is being hammered.
47 Given Huhne’s media profile, their now total dominance at Council level and the first term Lib Dem incumbent bonus that seems very mean odds.
64 - I dont think it matters where the Green breakthrough comes though. It’s the Greens becoming serious players generally, rather than in a specific seat the Lib Dems want to win that’s the bigger problem. But, they are also a problem for Labour as it is Labour seats that they tend to challenge in (for the Lib Dems it is an opportunity cost as they are seats they could pick up more easily without Green interference).
Here is a short list of naturalised foreigners who have demonstrated their Britishness outside HM Forces…
Terry Wogan
John Semantu
Nazir-Ali
Spike Milligan
Elvis Costello - although he was born in England and went off to Ireland, so maybe not
Rolf Harris
Lord Taylor
Richard Harris
Peter O’Toole
I’m not convinced this poll demonstrates a ’stop the Tories’ surge. As a ‘floater’ I really want to see Labour removed from power. If I lived in Brighton I would happily vote for either Green or Conservative if it meant unseating the Labour MP. So you could read this poll as indicating the strength of the swing away from Labour towards the next best placed candidate, which in Brighton Pavillion is Green. My hunch is this is worse news for Labour rather than the Tories.
68. Thanks Mike. There must be a great deal of churn for the Lib Dems to be polling their overall share, then?
PS Better keep that news from Mark Senior…
FPT 298
Union vote: Miliband2 or someone on Team Balls
Membership: Miliband2 or Cruddas (if he survives)
PLP: Who knows, maybe Darling or Miliband1 but impossible to say till after
ps. perhaps not Lord Taylor. I’m not sure where he was born. Which is probably a little prejudiced…
66 I don’t trust you, you lie on a daily basis on here and I think after the election we won’t hear of you again.
75 Well, it indicates a swing of 8.5% from Labour to Conservative, and if that were replicated across the Country, the Conservatives would win a very substantial majority.
74 - No Boris or Cliff?
79 - Hot air.
69. PollyB December 29th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
Indeed - It offers the LD the chance to oust Labour IMO. Though i think the Lib Dems would look at it more in terms of potentially making them unpopular. I dont think the dynamics after the next election automatically mean unpopularity for the Tories come the election after or in a Cameron led National government LD unpopularity. Remember about 70% of the electorate want the country run well and comptently. If Clegg shuns a National Government led by Cameron and relevant positions and know i mentioned the Duchy of Lancaster but I was joking (Ithink it is a joke job!
) then Clegg would be doing the wrong thing by the country, his party and long term his political ambitions.
My problem with the Lib Dems is heir politicians are too close to Labour. They have, maybe inadvertently assisted Labour in emasculating the political system.
Another way to look at this poll.
Labour are on course in 2010 to lose a 1/3 of people who voted for them in 2005.
If that was to be replicated accross the country….
VOTE GREEN OR THE FOREST GETS IT!
82 No I really don’t trust you and I really do believe you lie frequently.
Voreas wrote
“The sad truth is we have fallen so far in International standing under Labour that dictatorships like China and Iran now just laugh at us(as do the Americans, German’s and French).
The lesson is if you are a British Citizen don’t dare and travel anywhere remotely hostile as our Government is such a joke they will be of no help whatsoever.”
Very True and well written.
80 Around the 100 mark,if my memory serves me right
70,screaming,I like the tory candidate,maria hutchings,she’s a fighter.
http://www.conservatives.com/People/Prospective_Parliamentary_Candidates/Hutchings_Maria.aspx
also,she’s on tim’s hit list
73
The LDs never seem to have been able to establish a ‘vote for LDs because…’. With the Greens, at least it’s clear.
84 In 97 the Tories lost more or less exactly a quarter of their 92 vote share,and as they say,the rest is history..
89 - If I lived in Eastleigh I’d be tempted to vote for her to damage the Tory Party, but I don’t think I could live with myself afterwards.
So instead I shall be campaigning for Jacob Rees Mogg.
88 If these changes in vote share were replicated across the Country, then the Conservatives would have a majority of 64, according to Baxter (obviously, they won’t be replicated in every seat).
87 cheers
87. “The lesson is if you are a British Citizen don’t dare and travel anywhere remotely hostile …”
… especially if you have 4kg of heroin in your luggage.
No one has commented that the Tory share has increased by only 4%, far below national swings. That suggests either that the seat is trending away from them or that the Green message is of interest to many who might otherwise vote Tory or both.
I don’t see how Labour dropping to third in a seat that they previously held would be good news for them. The best bets on the Tories will be in straight two-way fights with Labour. Labour look like a sell on the spreads to me.
92 Living within 35 miles of Eastleigh,I’d quote 1/6 that Huhne will hold on
91. Labour losing a third would be much worse….1931 here we come (in terms of seats)
johnno December 29th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
I think she will win - In 1992 it had a Tory Majority of 17,000.
I simply dont believe the Lib Dems will hang on and first term incumbancy is a joke given the trouser press!
In actually fact i think personality of MPs and who they are is going to way very little in terms of votes this next time round. I dont think some folk realise how much not just the electorate but the whole battlefield has shifted since 2005.
91 - To be fair to John Major, he polled nearly 42% in 1992, whereas Labour polled 36% in 2005. The tories had more to drop.
97 ..to his trouser press?
89 I see she had a go at Tony, no wonder Tim gets so vexed.
96 IF,and its a big ‘if’,the Tories only went up 4% in reality at the GE,then a very hung (ie main 2 parties within 10-15 seats of each other) could be on the cards..constitutional experts,please
Another British ship has been taken by Somali pirates and the earlier hostages are not released yet, I believe. We have mentally deficient deportees who do not get the same legal protection as US citizens would under the same treaty.
Is the China farrago - and it is being hyped for all it is worth - a way of ensuring we do not put all the recent events together and see exactly how useless this government is in protecting our citizens and their interests?
When did Brown and the Schoolboy get into such a strop about UK citizens on death row in America? Or the two in Pakistan?
Why China and why such a mega fuss now? They knew that the execution was inevitable. What did they do about it before last week? Is it all a cynical ploy?
and that one solitary seat for the greens is gonna get Brighton absolutely zip from a new Tory Govt. No voice heard whatsoever.
They should remember that when they going into the voting booth as to who can do whats best for them.
Let them do what they think but they will be sorry for it when they get nothing from lobbying for what they need.
06 Or there simply aren’t many Tories there [shy or otherwise] - much more likely IMO.
95 He was mentally ill.
86 Voreas
Tim has always met his obligations in respect of recorded wagers and I have corresponded with him at his home address. Of course if you don’t want to bet with him, that’s your business, but his record as regards previous wagers is unblemished.
99 In the scheme of things,and I am merely talking common sense here,the trouser press is probably one of the least offensive chapters in the expenses saga.
The people of Eastleigh are pretty matter-of-fact,their council is overwhelingly Lib Dem-I can only see a Chris Huhne hold
84.
It will be replicated across the country. Labour will loose 2-3 million votes.
I think they will get 25%, the Tories 43%
99,martin,just a reminder of our favorite lib dem.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5314093/Chris-Huhne-a-multi-millionaire-but-you-buy-his-chocolate-HobNobs-MPs-expenses.html
Mike S a post has gone into moderation for reasons unknown. I camouflaged the nationality of the pyrates.
The question is why the fuss about China and why now?
We have a man with a mental problem about to be sent to the US without the same legal protection as a US citizen would have under the same treaty. People being held by pyrates, citizens on death row in the US and Pakistan. But no fuss there.
Are they hiding how useless they are at protecting us by giving the impression that it is only the monster country which they cannot deal with? Are we dumb enough to forget the rest?
105. voreas December 29th, 2009 at 7:56 pm
Given he was said to be “mentally ill” he seemed to get around a bit internationally!!!
Frankly I dont believe the media reports and that video with the fluffy bunny on it does not mean he was tapped. Its all about politics! Its all about Labour electioneering.
Gary Mackinnon on the other hand is being extradited to the US for something he is alleged to have done here in the uk.
84. TSE
If that was to be replicated accross the country
It would be the worst turnout for Labour since universal suffrage was introduced.
63 Thanks Neil.
If it were not for the reputation of Ms Ruddock, I might be tempted by the 10/1 VC are offering on the Greens in L&D, but as it is, I think I will pass.
106 All I know is day in day out he comes on here and smears, distorts and lies. He clearly has an agenda and a clean bill of health betting lends him credibility that his posts frequently destroy. I certainly don’t trust that he will be around after the election, regardless of how he appears before it.
109 Do you know if David Steel’s famous 1981 quote is on youtube?
:lol:
(My fellow Liberals and Social Democrats,go back to your towns-and prepare for government!!)
74. Does you mean John Sentamu?
107. Patrick West Ham fan who is basically Labour but has despaired of Gordon Brown December 29th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
Fair enough - I just dont think in a national election about the direction and principally who will govern Britain Huhne will win. Huhne may well put votes on but not as many as the tory thus a tory win.
“Given he was said to be “mentally ill” he seemed to get around a bit internationally!!!”
I suggest you do some research on bipolar disorder.
I take this greenie poll about as seriously as the one for the euro-elections that had them on 15% nationwide or something.
Still, it is Brighton , and therefore has even less relevance to the rest of Britain as Hampstead and Kilburn or Hornsey and Wood Green.
There is no doubt that this is the kind of seat that ,despite Cameron’s attempts to turn the Tories into cuddly Guardian-friendly limp-wristed liberals, is forsaking them long-term.
111 I certainly don’t disagree about Mackinnon, it is yet another case of Labour selling British people down the river.
89.She is female and Tory, nuff said.
117 We’ll have to see,and agree to disagree (for now)
118. David December 29th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
Where the hell did he get the money from?!!
People with that disorder still know whether they are breaking the law! John Cleese has it and he does not go round smuggling herion!
115,patrick,I found this of chris huhne and nick clegg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjLfTMD_zTw&feature=related
119. It’s interesting that when the Scottish Greens recently commissioned a poll they specifically did NOT include a Westminster polling intention question.
73 Disagree. Brighton Pavilion has some FE presence in staff and students but noting like Norwich South or other places. It does matter hugely if the Greens break through in a place like Brighton Pavilion where with the exception of nearby Lewews they have never had great strength even in the general area or Norwich South which is in a seat the Lib Dems have shown significant srength in. Hence why you should expect the Lib Dems to move decisively against the Greens in Norwich South as they did in Norwich North By Election.
101.Yes, she did have a go at Tony, but not on the issue of MMR either. That is why she gets such a vile slagging off on here from him. No one remembers her for MMR, they remember her for his policy on closing specialist schools and shoving Autistic children into mainstream schooling. For some that is about the most traumatic thing you could do to them.
“John Cleese has it and he does not go round smuggling herion!”
I think you mean Stephen Fry, and he famously got into some severe trouble when suffering an episode.
114 Who you trust and who you don’t is your business, Voreas. I was merely pointing out from my experience as recorder of official wagers for the Site that he has an unblemished record.
As a great fan and supporter of the Site I would also comment that I don’t think it’s a very good idea to call another poster a liar unless you have clear, incontrovertible evidence that it is the case. If you do not, it is technically a libel. Of course it is unlikely to be actioned but bear in mind that if it were, OGH and the Site would suffer as a consequence.
Even if formal action isn’t taken, it tends to bring the tone of the place down. If you called me a liar, on Site, I would certainly take action, if only through the agency of the said Good Host.
Have a care.
96 To be honest, I’m surprised the Conservative vote share has risen at all in this seat. Back in 1979 - 87 , the Conservatives were winning 50%+ in this seat; there are few seats where the Conservative vote has collapsed so completely. I think it’s a combination of a relentless trend against the Conservatives here (partly offset in a good year for them) together with there being an alternative for the anti-Labour vote that’s much more palatable for the local voters.
102 If the Conservative vote only rose by 4%, but the Labour vote fell by 13%, then the Conservatives would win handsomely.
FPT
Gabble:
“it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the UK is being penalised simply for having a low level of debt in the first place.”
So what your saying is that the previous Conservative government passed on low levels of public debt that Labour have subsequently massivley increased?
Of course public debt is only one aspect of debt. There’s also corporate and personal debt. Perhaps you’d care to give us a list of those among th G7 countries.
I’m curious as to why you also take pride that we’ve had an economic bust without having a boom first. That’s rather like having the worst gangover ever without the pleasure of the drinking first.
81 Cliff Richard is an Anglo-Indian, so was already British.
Ditto Boris Johnson. Already British.
126 But it has a huge gay vote, and a huge secular vote. And it’s a resort, and most British resorts have been sliding downhill.
116 Here you are
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxyQqDik2rs
129 You’d make a good lawyer.
I don’t just mean the ability to make a reasoned argument; the legal cab-rank tradition, means you can’t choose not to represent someone, however vile.
A rare chink of light. As I suspected there’s still an ‘anyone but the Tories’ vote out there which Labour need to harness. Wheeling out Lady T won’t work anymore but reminding voters of Howard and Hague wont do any harm.
Anyone read an article in the Guardian By Cruddas today or yesterday? A leadership marker if ever I saw one.
130. It is ironic that what was once thought the toughest most Labour friendly part of Brighton that is Kemptown is now the most favourable to the Tories. I exclude Brighton and Hove from that.
83. Martin Day - “My problem with the Lib Dems is their politicians are too close to Labour. They have, maybe inadvertently assisted Labour in emasculating the political system.”
Agreed Martin. There is a real opportunity for the Libs to move on from regressive political tribalism - not that they show any sign of taking it.
“New poll reveals Sutton residents like their borough”
“Almost nine in ten Sutton residents are satisfied with their local area as a place to live, according to a new survey from Ipsos MORI.
“Results from the latest residents’ survey, carried out every two years, also reveal that 72 per cent of people are satisfied with how Sutton Council runs things, up from 69 per cent in 2007.”
http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/4819026.New_poll_reveals_Sutton_residents_like_their_borough/
The council is run by the LibDems. Both the constituencies, which the borough is divided into, are two-horse LibDem/tory races - both currently held by the LibDems.
tory target seats:
19. Carshalton & Wallington (Tom Brake)
58. Sutton & Cheam (Paul Burstow)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/conservative-target-seats
Both MPs have been named as expenses ’saints’ by The Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5350793/MPs-expenses-The-saints-Part-iii.html?image=1
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5350793/MPs-expenses-The-saints-Part-iii.html?image=12
Difficult to see why the electorate would want to unseat the present incumbents in favour of the tories.
133. But gardening uphill.
133 Hey, what’s this, SeanF?
‘….Gay…secular…sliding downhill.’ You trying to tell us something?
110 Why focus so much energy on a Pakistani Immigrant executed in China?
Perhaps because he is a pakistani immigrant. Labour have a points system of worthiness.
110/142 If he was white and born in england, he would not have received a mention.
If it were a woman of the lesbian, black and muslim community, Labour would have declared another war.
128. David December 29th, 2009 at 8:10 pm True about Stephen Fry - Cleese has it as well. Google John Cleese and Bipolar disorder.
I know what it is but i think it is doubtful IMO in these circumstances. Interestingly I watched a program on channel 4 recently on race and gene pools and iirc south asia has a very low level or incidence of that kind of mental illness. Maybe he was unlucky and was ill. I just find it strange and frankly dont believe the story. I think there is something political in the mix given other media on the same day when south asians were being stuck up for by HMG. Its my opinion, thats all!
Interesting to see the Greens doing so well in this constituency. FWIW I think the Greens will be badly exposed during a national election. I recently talked to some activists who were canvassing in my constituency and asked what they were going to do to fix the economy. In response they prattled on about “Prosperity without Growth”-they basically want the economy to shrink further! I can’t really see this argument winning many votes come polling day.
133 Yes I agree. Not sure of your point. I was suggesting the Lib Dems should not be unduly worried by a Green win in Brighton Pavilion but a Green win or even strong progress in Norwich South would have serious worries for them given their recent advance in University seats.
127 - Christina.
Why don’t you give it a rest.
Her campaign was against Tory Essex Council.
Hutchings is an MMR hoaxer, who is doing the same invented science act with fluoridation.
“With an increasing number of immigrants and asylum seekers, then the pot is reduced for the rest of us”; Mr Blair has got to stop focusing on issues around the world such as Afghanistan and Aids in Africa and concentrate on the issues that affect the people of middle England like myself, who pay the taxes which keep the country going”; and “I don’t care about refugees. I care about my little boy, and I want the treatment he deserves.”
She’ll lose and deserve to lose, badly.
129 - Out of curiousity, how much money has been staked via the bets you’ve registered?
144 “If it were a woman of the lesbian, black and muslim community, Labour would have declared another war.”…
…on Iceland.
126. Punter
From UKPR:
Brighton Pavilion
33.7% Graduates
13.5% Students
Norwich South
23.5% Graduates
11.6% Students
Brighton Pavilion is like Norwich South in that it needs a reasonably equal split between the ‘leeftist’ parties for the Conservatives to win.
Ironically it is the strategic interest of Labour and especially the LibDems for there not to be a Green win here.
Perhaps we’ll see Mark Senior telling his Brighton Pavilion comrades to vote Conservative?
Or perhaps we wont.
Mike’s hypothesis on Brighton Pavilion seems to fly in the face of another position he takes, namely, that the Lib Dems aren’t just another side of the same anti-Tory coin that also includes Labour, the Greens, etc. After all, if, even in this year when the Tories are at relatively high favorability and Labour at relatively low favorability, the non-Tory voters STILL cooperate strategically to keep the Tories out, then there is little question that the Tories are on one side of a wide gulf while the other major parties are on the other side (note that the poll shows roughly equal one-third shares peeling off both the Labour and Lib Dem vote and going to the Greens).
134
137. Perhaps IHT is influencing the good property owners of affluent Kemptown? Notably Osborne is sticking to his guns on IHT.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/12/george-osborne-is-not-for-turning-on-inheritance-tax.html
New pin-up for Tim - George as Maggie
134 Cheers MTF (BTW,commiserations for yesterday-only 13 minutes to go and Chelsea pulled two rabbits out of their hat!)
“Cleese has it as well”
I had no idea.
But people with the disorder can do crazy things when suffering severe episodes. It’s perfectly believable that he suffered from one and did something stupid because of it.
129 I don’t feel I have any reason to call you a liar, Peter. Indeed this is true of most Poster’s on this site.
I don’t think I have ever been unjust in calling Tim a Liar. I think if it came to court and he tried to defend some of what he says every day then I think he should be the one to worry.
If OGH feels that I am out of order then he has a right to ban me. I don’t believe I have ever been unfair to Tim. Perhaps you should consider warning him about the constant smears that he undertakes.
147.Me, give it a rest!! You are like a broken record on here some threads.
You are the one that acts like he has rolled in catnip and turned feral when it comes to female Tories! And your posts over the last few months are evidence enough.
148 TSE
Can’t tell you offhand, but I figure it must be approaching £10k now.
I’ll be doing a little thread piece on RWs in the New Year. I’ll give the stats then.
158 - Thanks Peter, I’ll look forward to seeing that article.
Here’s hoping the Greens win in Brighton. I think English politics, from what I can see, needs a new voice. Maybe the Greens will be that voice.
Thankfully, here in Scotland, we have the SNP. I can’t imagine what it must be like having to choose between the Tories, New Labour and the Lib Dems.
In heartland or other occasional seats, then there will always be an Anti-Tory vote. What can be done with that is interesting. Will people be motivated to move? I keep coming back to Guildford, but there is a combined Lib/Lab vote that would crush the Tories, yet only once has the LibDems taken the seat to promptly loose it again at the next election.
I don’t think this kind of tactical voting is there in sufficient quantities to damage the Tories significantly anymore. And lets not forget that there is a substantial anti-Labour vote and an even more substantial anti-Brown vote out there. Played properly it could seriously damage Labour.
157 - Probably the only Tory I’d vote for at the moment is Sayeeda Warsi.
Please do not categorise her with someone like Hutchings it shows a massive lack of judgement on your part.
152 28 years and counting..we’re still waiting,Mr.Steel
Significant I think that Brighton Pavilion with its Greens, gays, students and various other urban trendies doesn’t show much of an increase in Conservative support but the pleb end of town, Brighton Kemptown, is assumed to be a certain Conservative gain.
Further evidence that this country is changing from its traditional class based voting to a more USA situation with voting more determined by ethnicity and a private/public sector split.
Martin Day, do you think that Labour MPs are involved, such as Keith Vaz?
151 Stars see 16. This is a seat where the changing nature of the seat have moved against the Tories. Caution about viewing it as typical nationally.
150 Yes but Brighton has the elements both of a depressed sea side resort and a Bohemian nature that Norwich South lacks. pLus Lib Dem strength has always been minimal. I still would suggest Norwich South as the real barometer of the Lib Dem and Green contest.
157. I think ‘Give it a rest’ could become the polite way of reminding tim of his hypocrisy when he raises something he has banged on about repeatedly and to no avail.
Although by the end of a couple of threads, we may need to give ‘Give it a rest’ a rest as it will be suffering from its own form of repetitive strain.
I must say,Hutchings sounds about as bright as the Tory candidate in my ward in the May 2007 local elections..
162 I seriously doubt you know either of them and therefore you just look a fool saying things like this.
“I care about my little boy, and I want the treatment he deserves.”
What an evil, selfish woman. How dare she.
this support for the Greens reminds me of Shirley Williams winning Crosby for the old SD party in i think 1979. it is just gimmicky!
162,what happened to gove ?
164 You should have moved to Dewsbury when you had the chance! Sayeeda versus that loathsome trougher Shahid Malik really is a no-brainer.
156 Voreas
If I warned every poster who smeared on Site, I’d have little time left to do anything else. Anyway, a smear is generally a matter of opinion, but a lie is matter of fact. That’s what makes the latter potentially libellous and I don’t care to see the Site and OGH jeopardised in this way.
You are brave from the anonymity of your computer and nom de plume. Remember it is Mike’s Site and money you are being brave with.
163. I am vaguely hoping OGH will let us vote for the political quote of 2009 between now and Thursday. There can rarely have been a richer year. just a few:
I called them a bunch of chumps.
Mike’s Nature trick.
If I had a valet you’d think it was perfectly normal.
No one in Norfolk knows how to use Google.
I’ve got a very, very large house. Some people say it looks like Balmoral.
zero percent growth in spending.
We’re all in this together.
Personally, i hope Hutchings pounces on Gordon Brown during the election campaign.
You just know, Brown would do and or say somehting incredibly stupid.
166- I don’t doubt your interpretation or that of Sean Fear, since both of you know a lot more about the seat than I do. I’m more intrigued by Mike’s analysis in light of his beliefs about his own party. As a counter example, are there any seats where there’s evidence of Lib Dems tactically voting Tory to oust Labour?
Post 175 for Voreas now refers to post 157.
176 - We not only saved the world.
155. David December 29th, 2009 at 8:22 pm
I have quite a bit of understanding of mental illness (No jokes please!!!)
Most of the time folk can appear “alright” but when they have a sudden accute episode thats when things can happen. I am very suspicious of this bloke executed in china. It just does not sound right and if he had bipolar disorder surely he would have seen someone about it but had no medical history of it!
That does not mean his execution was right but i think he has been used as a political pawn. Trust me - You might not agree with what i write but i notice these things in the media and elsewhere! Labour need the south asian vote to hang onto many seats.
139 If you haven’t noticed, people often vote differently in local and Parliamentary contests.
140/141 I can see that I walked into that.
146 I misunderstood your point; I thought you were implying that Norwich South was a better prospect for the Greens.
151 The Tories have achived a shift of 4% from the Left. But, I think this seat is sui generis. You wouldn’t argue, I’m sure, that as votes San Francisco, so votes the rest of the USA.
I wonder what a Green party that had other than tired old 1980s policies on subjects other than the environment would do? I hope they win a seat or two, why they can’t look forwards in anything other than climate issues escapes me though.
175 So you are suggesting I self moderate my posts. Meanwhile you are quite happy to live with Tim’s posts.
I smell hypocrisy that is less to do with your desire to protect the site and more to do with your desire to have a go at me/protect Tim.
178 In the polling as Mr Smithson says Stars the Tories are at level pegging with Labour in a forced choice scenario if you had to have Cameron or Brown who would it be amongst Lib Dems. For years Labour enjoyed an overwhelming advantage in this. In many seats Lib Dem supporters where the Lib Dems are not players don’t actually have to vote Tory they just have to be sufficiently disilliusioned with Brown to stop tactically voting Labour in order to cost Labour the seat.
re 49 Gabble over a thousand votes! Who’s been a busy little beaver then?
182. Sean Fear: “If you haven’t noticed, people often vote differently in local and Parliamentary contests.”
Yes. I noticed that both constituencies were taken from the tories in 1997 and have been held by the LibDems ever since.
Your complacency is very encouraging.
Can posters when directly replying to someone else out both number and name before their comment please.
Things get confusing when the numbers are out.
182. Sean Fear last para - precisely. Brighton is Islington on Sea. Not typical of anywhere else in Britain.
147. she’d get the Wasabi vote. One less for the BNP I suppose.
185 is for Peter the Punter.
166. ken wasabi December 29th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
A possibility!
Lets be realistic about Labour. Due to immigration they are going to have problems even in coal miner seats. A place where they wont have as much problem are towns and cities who have expreienced large levels of immigration. In polls when people say they will vote Labour is different to actually voting it imo and why OGH polls through Angus Read are so good!
The bringing forward of some Immigrants voting rights will assist Labour in holding some of these seats in towns and cities imo.
A forced choice among LibDem voters is only relevant if they are only willing to vote for another party if there is still a LibDem candidate.
181…i very much doubt that the south asian vote approves of the actions of a convicted drug dealer.
182 PMSL!
If it hadn’t been you, SeanF, I wouldn’t have teased! For the benefit of those who DON’T know you, I should make it clear that you are far too sensible and good-natured to make nasty insinuations about the gay, secular folk of Brighton….or anywhere else.
Sorry to have tweaked your tail. (But it was fun!)
183- That’s fine Sean, you’re arguing that there are no larger lessons to be drawn from the seat. Mike seems to be saying something else. I’m mostly curious because of the potentially huge implications if there turns out to be a surprisingly resilient anti-Tory strategic voting phenomenon on election day (which, in the Brighton Pavilion example, appears to swamp whatever meager gain the Tories have managed).
178 I think that you would see that in marginal seats in the Midlands, and North, where I think the overriding desire will be to throw out Labour.
185 - Why don’t you just leave it.
You questioned my judgement, I offered you a bet, you spluttered.
I’m not going to clutter up the site with Carter Rucks emails, although you are beginning to clutter up this thread.
185 Most people do self-moderate, Voreas. That generally involves not libelling other posters.
197 Stars there maybe an element of let’s provoke a real debate now.
160 GlesgaNat
As we know the critical thing for any party outside the Unholy Trinity is making that breakthrough of getting an MP elected at a GE.
Since the English Greens are essentially localists, and not particularly Unionists, the more Greens in Parliament, the better.
er 185 voreas, tim and I have had our scraps - sometimes very fierce - on here but he’d be one I’d trust implicitly to pay up if he lost.
197 I think that Mike is raising the question, rather than putting the view that there are wider lessons.
Perhaps one wider lesson is that there remains a very big vote out there for parties outside the big three. In Pavilion it would favour the Green; in a right wing seat, UKIP.
Vote Conservative in Eastleigh! a Tory talking sense about immigration? Oooooh the left really hate her…..I really hope she wins against that charmless smarmy trougher Huhne.
199 I still don’t believe you will be around after the election so I wouldn’t dream of taking a post election bet with you. I am happy to leave it there.
197. S&S
I’m not sure that voting Green in Brighton Pavilion can be regarded as voting on a tactical anti-Conservative basis.
Voting in an anti-Conservative manner would see LibDems and Greens switch to Labour as they currently hold the seat.
In a strategic sense Labour and the LibDems will certainly not want their supporters to vote tactically Green here.
It occurred to me just now whilst reading through comments above that quite a few people that read this site would like to have a more liquid market where our various views can be bet upon. I presume there are quite a lot of people out there who, like me, don’t really like leaving anything significant sitting on betfair for long periods of time. My idea therefore is that perhaps we could choose a 1 hour period (maybe 9-10pm on thursdays) in which we’d all put a little bit more size into the betfair markets. I’ve no idea if other people think this a worthwhile idea, and I’m entirely not available in any sense to organise anything like this, but perhaps a PB general understanding that one particular hour a week would allow you to trade with your fellow punters might be helpful.
203 Yes, that’s right SeanF, and I think that will be a big factor in the GE. There’s enough hostility to the big three to produce some curious results where that hostilty galvanises around one particular Party or peron
Esther Rantzen in Luton, perhaps?
200 I don’t believe I have libelled anyone. I hope but seriously doubt you will be consistent in this attitude as regards Tim.
205 see 168.
208 - Surely Esther’s ‘appeal’ has been dented with Margaret Moran standing down?
193 - I agree Martin. Within a few elections I can see the Conservatives winning seats like Workington,North-East Derbyshire and Don Valley whilst losing comfortably in hotbeds of bourgeois leftist smuggery like Brighton Pavilion.
The race/culture cleavage in British politics may already be very close to being more important than class in determining voting patterns.
206. “In a strategic sense Labour and the LibDems will certainly not want their supporters to vote tactically Green here.”
The mirror side of that is that they wouldn’t mind their supporters voting UKIP in Buckingham.
207 - The problem with that is most of the bets on here are traded precisely because there isn’t a market on them.
I have some weird and wonderful bets with fellow PBers which would never appear on the markets, whether there will be more Old Etonian Tory MPs than non white Tory Mps for instance
153 - Stars
The Lib-Dems have been described as a socially acceptable way for the middle-classes to abstain. I think a lot of the LD/Green vote could be classed as “don’t know”.
208 I think that you need to have some sort of local connection, and some sort of local organisation behind you, to beat the big three. And Esther Rantzen has neither.
Re this geezer who’s been topped in China. His relatives say he should’ve been excused the legally sanctioned penalty for what he confessed he did - smuggle four kilos of smack - because he was… er… um…. “bipolar”.
i.e. He got a bit depressed. And sometimes he thought he could be a really great pop singer.
On that basis just about anyone between the age of 14-28 should be let off by the Chinese, if that person gets caught “inadvertently” smuggling enormous amounts of heroin into Shanghai.
And as for the idea that we have a unique understanding of “universal human rights” - rights that the Chinese must learn to obey - perhaps we could explain these “universal human rights” to the hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqi citizens who died when we decided, in our uniqueness, to invade and bomb their country.
207 Thanks Omnium, but afraid it would work, if only because of interference by ‘bots’ on Betfair.
203. Sean Fear
“Perhaps one wider lesson is that there remains a very big vote out there for parties outside the big three. In Pavilion it would favour the Green; in a right wing seat, UKIP.”
Very true.
The Greens have also managed to reach breakthrough point in Brighton Pavilion due to their previous successes at local and Euro level.
The next time an unpopular Conservative government faces election I predict we’ll see similar polls in a traditional Conservative seats but with UKIP leading.
214 - I think the expenses stories, helped me cull quite a load of the old Etonians in the Tory party.
217. I’m mainly of the opinion that we shouldn’t let commie dictatorships murder British citizens for any reason. This cultural relativism is a new tack for you, old boy.
The Greens have been rather clever here, just look how they weighted this poll. Not by past vote, but by profile. No, not the profile of those who voted last time, but the profile of ALL Brighton Pavilion adults. Yet we know that there are certain sections of the population that simply do not bother to vote, and that other sections are more likely to vote than others. In choosing to weight by all adults, the Greens are distorting the result. The p[oll assumes that all those who are eligible to vote will actually bother to do so. In practice, this won’t happen.
Although it has been an interesting diversion, this poll is bunkum and can be ignored. Still, it has done the job the Greens required of it so it was money well spent for them.
The greens are probably doing well in Brighton because:-
1) it costs so much to park there that nobody has a car if they have any sense.
2) It was maybe still is the home of a charity fundraising company that constantly sent people out to recruit greenpeace members on the streets of Brighton, and the greens have probably picked up on the brainwashing.
3) Like everyone says the lanes etc are full of bohemian lefties and students that are the descendents of hippiedom and green is their most likely party.
216 It’s hard to see Ester Rantzen’s campaign as anything other than as self serving and therefore it’s not well suited to being presented as ‘anti-politics’
209 In deprecating potentially libellous posts, I am consistent towards all posters, Voreas.
216. Sean Fear
Don’t forget that Esther was delighted to discover that Luton was only an hour’s drive form London.
217. SeanT
I wonder how many people died feeding your habit.
206. In my experience the green vote in Brighton is a sincere one and not merely tactical. In fact, I’d rather say the reverse was true - many Brighton Greens voted Labour in the past as a tactical vote. Now they are voting for what they really believe in.
o/t R4’s PM played an extract of Michele Obama’s speech to school kids here last March. She is such a star and brought home to me what a total loser Brown’s class war is. Michele genuinely motivated those kids by saying it didn’t matter where they came from - a country estate or a council estate - it didn’t matter. They could make it by their own efforts. British politics needs a lot more of that.
220 - Only Hogg I thought.
Soames was going anyway and Arbuthnot Wiggin and Tredinnick survived.
As the new intake have taken their schools off their websites its difficult to judge how many new ones.
Rory Stewart obviously (and desevedly) and hopefully Jacob Rees Mogg.
Off topic maybe,
but I found interesting the analyses, stocktaking, and general punting advice given a couple of threads ago by some of the seasoned punters here abouts. Twere notable schtummers too. And why not?
222 Gooey blob. See 37.
213. NOA
“The mirror side of that is that they wouldn’t mind their supporters voting UKIP in Buckingham.”
Very true which is why I think those who expect the former Labour and LibDem voters to transfer wholly to Bercow are seriously mistaken.
I’m sure Farage will be explaining the strategic advantages of voting for him to every Labour and LibDem supporter he meets.
218 Afaid it would NOT work…
Tired. Time to turn in.
Nite all, and happy New Year to all self-moderating posters!
229 - Peter Viggers was a casualty too.
Brighton Pavillion is full of hippies who’ve swapped from Labour to Green. Had the Greens not been standing, they’d all be voting Lib Dem instead
Simples
Does Brown and Millibros anti Chinese/Iran/anyone else we can p1ss off campaign fall into the overall labour scorched earth policy and build up the EU at the same time?
The professional diplomats in the FO must look on in total despair as decades of careful relationship building are blown to bits for 30 seconds of “Angry” sound bites on the news channels.
217. It wasn’t for “any reason”, he ADMITTED he broke Chinese law by smuggling large amounts of very serious drugs. He knew the penalty in China, for this, was death. Who gives a f*ck that he was also a tad moody. He sid the crime, now he’s paid the price.
Well done Beijing, I say. Don’t listen to the moaning minnies in Islington.
234 - Didn’t go to Eton though.
And Baby Boris is potential.
Any more?
Tim, you were wondering what Hague was upto earlier on, He was writing this article
There is still time to foil Iran’s bomb plot
The world must unite against it becoming a nuclear-capable country, says William Hague.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/6907848/There-is-still-time-to-foil-Irans-bomb-plot.html
217. I’ve not been particularly looking out for this smuggling and execution story but despite that today I’ve heard callers, as well as text and emails read out, on R4, R5, Radio London and LBC. Not one of them that I have heard has been sympathetic.
If I was to judge the public mood based upon what I’ve heard on the radio today any political party could gather a lot of support by committing to restore the death penalty.
Whoever the politicians are speaking for it sure as hell isn’t the British public.
225 As I said I haven’t libelled anyone. I may have called Tim a Liar, but that is because he has lied.
Also as I said Mike who actually owns the site not you is welcome to ban me if he wishes.
Time to let it lie PTP, as I am off to watch triffids.
24: very interesting link, blairf - thanks. Agree with your conclusions, too - this could well be the election where the assumptions of UNS shaken to the core.
I know Pavilion quite well - was briefly a member there, and thought about putting my name forward for the PPC slot. It’s hardly the den of lefty thinking that some posts above suggest - it was Tory in 1992, wasn’t it? But I think quite a lot of people wouldn’t mind seeing a Green MP or two if they thought they could win, so as they’ve focused on the seat I’m not too surprised by the poll, and can see them mopping up even more of the LibDem vote as the voter pools are very similar.
As Mike implies, both LibDems and Greens are well-placed to mop up anti-Tory votes if they can persuade people they’re the main alternative: it’s why it arguably makes sense that Clegg is marginally more anti-Tory than anti-Labour in his rhetoric. The snag for LDs is that they will be delphic on whom they might support into Number 10, whereas I can’t imagine the Greens contemplating supporting a Tory government for one second.
215- “The Lib-Dems have been described as a socially acceptable way for the middle-classes to abstain.”
That has a real ring of truth to it! One of the few pleasures of having voted for a losing presidential candidate in the U.S. is being able to put a bumper sticker on you car, as soon as the new president starts to disappoint, reading “Don’t Blame Me, I Voted for X” (e.g., Gore, Kerry, etc.). I guess the Lib Dems get to do the equivalent of this after every national election. This is much more socially acceptable than the alternative “Don’t Blame Me, I Didn’t Vote” (I’ve never seen that bumper sticker, but it’s not too bad actually…).
Of course, since these Lib Dems do bother to vote, one always has to keep a close eye on them.
238 - Ah yes, he isn;t an Old Etonian.
According to the telegraph, they are expecting a lot more standing down in January, and Central Office, can impose candidates, expect a lot of none WASP candidates to be appointed in eminently winnable seats.
re 222. The Greens did NOT weight this poll or have anything to do with the methodology. They just commissioned it - so your points are bunkum.
The sample description is the standard one.
Remember the old saying - a rogue poll is one where you don’t agree with the numbers
240. If they do, i hope its hanging, on ppv.
Stolen from Dale:
“We end this year and indeed this decade with the worst deficit in our history, the worst deficit in Europe, simply as a result of measures taken by this government.”
Gordon Brown, 29 December.
(1989, but still!)
And another thing…
Brighton Pavillion is Nut Central and about as representative of a regular seat as Kensington & Chelsea, or Glasgow East
Go to the bordering seats on either side; Hove and Brighton Kemptown and the polls will be wildly different
240 They wouldn’t get my vote, period, but then again, I wouldn’t let murderers out on license the way they do now.
“217. SeanT
I wonder how many people died feeding your habit.
by Gabble December 29th, 2009 at 8:57 pm”
lol. I have no idea, but do you want to hazard a guess? 10? 4,000? 2? None? How are you going to work this out?
How many, by the way, died feeding your party’s habit for pointless and disastrous wars of narcissistic liberal idiocy?
500,000? 1,000,000? 1-2m?
That’s quite a habit you guys have got. Gonne be difficult to break. Perhaps in your final months you could sneak in a quick final catastrophic invasion of Tierra del Fuego, or something, a futile conflict costing 20,000 lives for no obvious benefit.
237 - “Well done Beijing”
Wow, do you think all your dealers and everyone who smuggled your drugs into the UK should have been executed to?
Various Posts: The Greens & Norwich South.
Back in October I wrote a primer on PB2 about the chances in Norwich South for Charles Clarke’s defence of the seat and if he were to lose, who would win. It’s here http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2009/10/theres-something-about-norwich.html
It’s worth having an update:
1 Earlier this month the Green Candidate Adrian Ramsay gave up his leadership of the City Council’s Green Group, where they are just 3 seats behind Labour in a hung Council. This means he has more time to devote to campaigning in the seat.
2 Today, the Norwich ‘Evening News’ posters are leading on a new Green Party YouTube video that, surprise surprise, explains how they think they can win the seat.
3 Yesterday’s local paper headlined the story where a Green Party councillor in the city has been arrested in Egypt for attempting to get into Gaza for some humanitarian mission.
So, we’ve got a situation in Norwich where the Greens seem to have a media-momentum. Combine that with a Labour Council administration that’s desperately trying to get controversial programs approved before purdah in March. The Greens have Labour on the run locally.
4 I really haven’t heard anything from the LibDem candidate in the press. The LibDems locally are a shadow of their former selves but they know that they need to attack Norwich South to prevent being totally marginalised by the Greens, which could have a knock-on elsewhere.
5 And the Conservative candiate, Antony Little is pretty silent too.
6 Charles Clarke has been hitting the headlines recently but only where he’s been battering the Government/Gordon Brown. And he’s only defending a 3500 majority. If /he’s/ bashing the Government, that means everyone’s on an Anti-Labour ticket!
7 It’s a 4-way marginal. The winner will be the first one to get to 30%. If it’s really tight, the winning margin might be less. Look how the ICM Brighton poll clusters around 30%. It could be a lottery if the polls tighten.
8 We still don’t know whether UKIP will stand. They did quite well in Norwich North but this is where Labour voters lent their votes to the separatists. If they do stand it will be a 4.5 seat marginal and Little could be deprived of enough votes to be pipped at the post.
9 It’s a university seat and the eco-warriors locally have taken a bash on the UEA climategate stuff. It might make them more determined to campaign.
So, let’s just review this.
a The anti-Government vote is 100% with Clarke now against. I just can’t now see Clarke hanging on [which is good news for Cameron in the long-run].
b Will there be a pro-Green meme or an anti-Tory meme on polling day?
c The LibDems will be terribly squeezed but they know they’re going to have to fight it for wider strategic reasons. But I’d say it was a hopeless cause for them. A lot’s changed since 2005 in Norwich.
If it’s a pro-green meme, then the Green will win.
If it’s anti-Tory, then that vote will be split 3-ways and Little will come up the middle. A Tory victory is where the best value bets will lie.
But with the winner the first to 30%, it’s a lottery.
Bunnco - Your man on the spot
237. Quite. Though, i am still uneasy about capital punishments for non capital crimes though.
It makes me physically sick to think that anyone can justify the death penalty in any circumstances in a so called civilised society.
Clearly America and China are not civilised. Thank god Britain and the rest of the EU is, just.
217. SeanT: he was a bit more out to lunch than you make out - they showed the video of his pop song on Channel 4 News and it made sad viewing.
But this is really about Labour’s pathetic inability to engage with the grownups. We went whining to the Chinese 27 times, by all accounts, about this bloke, presumably under the auspices of Miliband D, while Miliband E and Brown go and pretty much beg China to humiliate us in any way possible by throwing their toys OOTP because their big treat at Copenhagen didn’t go as planned. It’s like Megrahi: we alienate Scotland the US and Libya all in one go and are left trying to browbeat Libya into toning down the triumphalism with absolutely no leverage against them except the threat that Gordon will be really, really, really cross if he doesn’t get his way.
In other news: “Britain has been given a warning by Iran’s foreign minister that it will “get slapped in the mouth” if it does not “stop the nonsense”. Things are bad when you read that and feel that the minister has a thoroughly valid point.
This wouldn’t have happened under maggie. Or Blair.
252 - Added to this you now have London party members (well, at least me!) wondering whether we would be better advised to go help in Norwich South rather than Brighton Pavillion now as a direct result of this poll.
A key thing about Akmal Sheik is his name.
Not many people are going to be bothered about him.
That he was 53 with three children doesn’t help him either. Men that age are meant to go down the pub or watch TV not drug smuggle.
People don’t have much sympathy for those teenage chav slappers who get caught drug smuggling from time to time. They’re going to have none for him.
252 Why is that. Given the relative security of Lamb’s seat you’d have thought all of Norfolk’s Lib Dems would be able to descend on Norwich South.
254. Good.
251. Yes, they should ALL have been executed, preferably by quartering by horses.
By contrast I, of course, must be excused all crimes, as I am “bipolar” (like this dead bloke in China), a fact I have many times confessed on pb.
258 - Look at what has happened in the local elections. When I first canvassed for the Greens in Norwich South the Lib Dems were the biggest party locally. Since then they have imploded.
237. I’d like to go back to a time when a Brit could swagger into any port in China throwing opium around like Ophelia’s flowers, and still be home in time for tea, with a comely Shanghai wench on his arm. Sadly those days are over. But we might at least make sure we don’t subject our own people to punishment that is outlawed in Britain.
260 - Consistency in a world gone mad
NPMP: It’s hardly the den of lefty thinking that some posts above suggest - it was Tory in 1992, wasn’t it?
242. You’re 18 years out of date Nick. I know the area pretty well and it really is a den of lefty thinking.
256 I’d have thought even if Brighton Pavilion looks likely the Greens would want to make it beyond certain. The importance of that first seat is so massive that I’d be surprised if even a bigger lead saw any real diversion to Norwich South however tempting at present.
Is it morally repugnant to want to see the pop song of the poor guy that was executed?
265 - Though one would expect the Tories to win most seats in Brighton and Hove overall … even in 2010.
258 Since the local elections in 2007, there aren’t that many LibDems left in Norfolk. But there are some and they will descend on Norwich South. I’m just sceptical about their ability to impact. When they did that in Norwich North they simply failed to get traction.
The Greens have nicked their pavement politics tactics and they’ve been exposed as not really having that much to offer. The Greens have Out-LibDem’d the LibDems… but from a socialist perspective.
260 - I don’t think excused was the only alternative to execution.
Although we’ve all met wanky rich kids spending money on coke and complaing about violence in Latin America, you’re the first one I’ve heard who spent daddy’s money on smuggled drugs and complained that not enough people died.
266 - I’ll tell you where I decide to go from January as soon as my mind is made up then
(We are not centrally organised, people will go where they feel they can make the most contribution or even just where they want to go. The joys and tribulations of a movement like the Green party.)
267. I believe it was a cover of “I Know It’s Over”.
267 dunno.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFv0eS5p9hs
261- Sean, you nicely highlight the fact of what a mistake it is to drag the guy’s bipolar status into the argument. If you oppose capital punishment, full stop, fine. But if you want to argue that it’s his bipolar status that should have gotten him off the hook, that’s pretty weak.
257. It’s an interesting question whether the Chinese would have been so content to execute a white “Christian” Briton as they have a brown Asian Briton.
I suspect they might have shown a tad more caution, not least cause this Asian guy was caught in secessionist Asian western China, so he fed their paranoia. A white guy wouldn’t have done that,
Either way he broke their drug law, for which the known penalty is death. End of argument.
No matter what the bits and pieces of the electoral arithmetic, all of those generally Tory type voters will return to the fold after being completely disillusioned by the spin of the early years,the wars and the overspending and the reversion to petty labourism of Brown and his class warriors. Not to mention “2 legs good, 2 legs better” from Hattie (St Paul’s) Harman and the fellow traveller hypocrites.
There will be a Tory government unless, in a hung parliament, the LDs side with the seat result rather than the vote result. They would have to watch their tails after that sort of pro left bias.
We should not allow a dictatorship to have any say over the fate of our citizens, if you go down that route then anything that Iran, Saudi, Zimbabwe or other such countries do to British citizens is obviously fine as well.
There is no fine line here, a democracy is to be trusted with its own affairs as their governments are elected by the people. Every other country must be challenged.
251. SeanT
Your outrage at players in the drug trade is as convincing and credible as your short-lived outrage at men who exploit women in the third world.
I don’t know how many people have died for your indulgences - you made that hell, you burn in it.
I believe the Chinese custom is to send the relatives a bill for the bullet.
In this case, will it be a bill for the needle(s)?
229: tim @ 20:58
“Soames was going anyway”
Tim,
Are you saying that Nicholas Soames, the MP for Mid-Sussex will not be standing at the next election? If so would you please give your source for this remarkaable piece of intelligence?
234, Peter the Punter. Sure, it may not work, but I can’t see a compelling argument why it cannot work.
267- I saw the video. His singing was no worse and his ambitions no more absurd than half the contestants on American Idol.
I am a bit concerned that our poster from Norwich is a bit too biased to be objective.Clearly these are tricky seats and it would be good if we had a poster from another party to give another perspective.
As an outsider and labourite I would have thought, given all the circs that Clarke has a good chance of hanging on, but what do I know.
I will be watching these seats with (betting) interest.
278. “I don’t know how many people have died for your indulgences - you made that hell, you burn in it.”
Brilliant Gabble. Your outrage and yet continuing support for Labour are noted.
“we might at least make sure we don’t subject our own people to punishment that is outlawed in Britain.
by AndrewG December 29th, 2009 at 9:13 pm”
Several questions arise from this procession of absurdities.
Are you saying any punishment not allowed in Britain must not be inflicted on Britons anywhere abrad? So even if this guy had killed 7000 Chinese babies with his teeth, China wouldn’t be allowed to execute him? Or even cane him? Or put him in solitary confinement?
Uh-huh?
Also, what does “outlaw” mean? Have we outlawed capital punishment? We may no longer execute people after a trial, but we are quite happy to kill thousand of innocent civilians prosecuting wars we fancy waging.
What is the f*cking difference? I have yet to hear a coherent argument.
And finally, just exactly how is li’l old Britain going to STOP enormous superpowers from exacting their justice in their country for serious crimes committed within their borders?
What exactly do you suggest we do? Threaten to stop broadcasting X Factor on BBC World’s Asian frequency?
283. I just wonder which party you think I’m puffing? I’m just reporting what I see at first-hand in person, on the streets and in the papers.
280 - Thats brilliant news, I thought he was standing down for some reason.
Another buffoon closer to winning my bet!
Wow, that song was very uncomfortable to listen to.
Poor guy.
Completely OT, from Iran an incident that may suggest that the protests are spilling into many varying circumstances & situations.
By the way. This is a pretty blunt video, so be warned.
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1239251/The-moment-Iranian-protesters-cut-prisoners-gallows.html
I do expect the coming GE to have a more fractured result that usual, but the 500 odd poll in Brighton Pavilion is a nonsense.
The questions set by the Greens were clearly slanted to produce a good result for that party.
On the Akmal Sheik affair, China was absolutely right and this guy deserved to get the chop.
It’s a pity Britain doesn’t follow suit and we’ed have a few less drug pushers and suppliers here.
282. Stars and Stripes December 29th, 2009 at 9:22 pm
Or susan Boyle!
289.Yokel, things do seem to be kicking off there again, been watching events over recent days.
had a message from former Labour Party MEP that he will be coming down to canvass in Brighton for Caroline, not room for complacency but we could win, its moving in the right direction. so if you put some cash on a Green Party win a few months ago, it could be good.
278. You don’t understand Gabble, everything I do - from smack taking to dole fraud to swearing on pb at twittering idiot lefties - is excusable. Because I am BIPOLAR.
How many times do I have to say this.
I’m bipolar. BIPOLAR. I can’t bloody help anything I do. I am bIPOLAr. Sometimes I get depressed, and then later I am NOT so depressed. I must be given allowances.
*giggles wierdly*
*sobs*
*makes appalling pop record*
290 - “but the 500 odd poll in Brighton Pavilion is a nonsense”
Bold statement backed up by next to no analysis. Most readers will probably stick with OGH’s and Mr Well’s analysis I expect.
291- I hope we don’t discover one day that Susan Boyle has been smuggling drugs into China!
290 You really are being daft if you say that. ICM are a very strong firm with a reputation to protect. See Mr Smithson at 246.
I have always believed that the Greens would take Brighton Pavillion - after all, even the US Senate has a wacko Socialist Senator (for Vermont, so Brighton will be the beacon of loony Green nonsemse for the UK next time) - but does this have any ramifications for Conservative prospects at the General Election?
Absolutely not, This seat is sui generis.
293. Presumably you’re the same Derek Wall that’s linked by Iain Dale
http://another-green-world.blogspot.com/2009/12/icm-poll-suggests-caroline-lucas-will.html
296 O/T But where does Christie stand on the big ticket issues in the States. You know the ones that would mean if he would ever be accepted on a national ticket nomination.
Prediction: stjohn not in high spirits tonight.
I actually think that a Clarke victory in Norwich South will give the labour party a chance of being a serious opposition, especially if he became leader. They would not win under Clarke but it would at least mean that a good Tory Government under Cameron would be even better!
The problem since 1997 has been the opposition being weak in parliament - Labour did things that an opposition with stronger parliamentry and unified opposition would have avoided. I am very pro- Cameron and Pro - Tory but i would welcome a good working Tory majority with someone like Clarke as leader of the opposition with maybe 220 seats. I think the LD will be on less then 30 seats either way.
SeanT December 29th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
You write good pieces for the papers/books and good comments on here though!!!
Mike. I asked an innocuous question about the Angus Reid application for membership of the BPC, and it seems to have disappeared without trace. Can you say what happened to it? Better still, what is the answer?
287: tim @ 21:28
“Thats brilliant news, I thought he was standing down for some reason.
Another buffoon closer to winning my bet!”
I do not know if Soames is standing again or not, that is why I asked for a source when you said he wasn’t.
Why do you think Soames is a Buffoon?
***** BETTING POST *****
It’s intersting to see that three of PB’s finest give one or other of the Miliband brothers a very good chance of becoming the next Labour leader. Whilst Richard Nabavi has it 40%:30% in favour of David, with which PtP broadly agrees, David Herdson favours Ed by 28%:22%.
In terms of probability, therefore, Richard & PtP believe one or other Miliband has a 70% chance of succeeding Brown, whereas David believes that together they have a 50% chance.
Expressed in terms of odds, Richard and PtP are suggesting fair value is 0.43/1, whereas David rates their prospects as being an even money (ie 1/1) bet.
Compare these odds with those of 1.82/1 achieved by combining D Miliband at 4/1 with Victor Chandler (56.5% of stake) and E Miliband at 5.5/1 with Stan James (43.5% of stake) and this combination bet looks very attractive if these three sages are remotely correct about the two brothers’ prospects.
300- Well, Christie presents himself as a pretty traditional conservative Republican, calling for tax cuts and spending restraint while being pro-traditional marriage and anti-abortion. If he can slim down by about a hundred pounds and somehow manages to maintain popularity in a virtually ungovernable state like New Jersey, he could have national prospects.
In other news, Schwartzenegger will again beg for a federal bailout for California, even though he was rejected the last time he asked:
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-budget23-2009dec23,0,7164018.story
“I think the LD will be on less then 30 seats either way.”
Martin its good to see that you’re feeling better but please for your own sake drop the LibDem obsession.
They are not going to be anywhere near 30 seats.
I do hope the NHS is safe in Tory hands.
http://www.staffordshirenewsletter.co.uk/staffordshirenewsletter/DisplayArticle.asp?ID=473473
“Stafford hospital’s emergency assessment unit was like a “third world country with not enough aid” according to a former worker.”
285. Perhaps this is where your new favourite superpower, the United States of Europe comes in. Negotiating new extradition treaties that mandate no capital punishment for EU citizens shouldn’t be beyond the wit of Baroness Asht-oh f**k. Yeah, you’re right. We’re screwed.
“Are you saying any punishment not allowed in Britain must not be inflicted on Britons anywhere abrad? So even if this guy had killed 7000 Chinese babies with his teeth, China wouldn’t be allowed to execute him? Or even cane him? Or put him in solitary confinement?”
Well, execution and caning, yeah. Pretty sure solitary punishment is allowed over here- though I’m willing to be corrected.
302
Isn’t it likely that the LD’s will squeeze Labour rather than the other way round? If Gordon Brown holds off till the last minute, Labour’s vote will likely weaken. Brown will be seen to be politically cowardly and avoiding facing the electorate.
295. Anthony Wells didn’t make any analysis that I could see. He just said the poll looks good; whatever that may mean or imply.
Below is Well’s own words and they sure don’t look like analysis to me.
“Clearly the Greens have commissioned it for their own purposes, and one should always look carefully at polls commissioned by political parties – they aren’t releasing those figures out of the goodness of their hearts – but in this case it appears kosher.”
PfP
The more you get to see of the Milibands the less impressive they seem.
Do you think they are the sort of men who could reattract the sort of voter Labour are losing.
Personally I think Hilary Benn looks good value. He seems to be a pretty normal human being and pretty competant as well.
Then again those might not be the attributes Labour members are looking for.
307 Why is that. I’m sure most Americans would rather look like Arnold but the reality is most look more like your new Governor. Is that really such a bar to high office in the States.
256. Talking of the government making a horlix of foreign diplomacy - how is Megrahi doing? Any medical bulletins?
308. another richard December 29th, 2009 at 9:43 pm
Perhaps! I know i bang on about ld!
Lets just say the potential debates may work against LD as they will be seen as an Establishment party! Thats all! I do have a bet on the LD getting less than 30 seats though! 
PollyB
You’ve done it now.
Expect the Scotts Nats to appear in full outrage mode.
314- Americans will accept a national leader who has overcome a problem (e.g., GWB and drinking), but I doubt they would want one still beset with a serious problem like obesity. This isn’t an “issue” per se, but rather one of how people viscerally react. Look at our governors, House members, senators… how many morbidly obese ones do you see? Virtually none (Christie is a rare exception), even though obesity is rampant in our country. There is a reason for this discrepancy.
292. It hasnt changed. In terms of street violence its quiet which is to be expected after the events focussed around Ashura
The sweep of whoever the regime wish to detain is very much in full swing but they are not going for big numbers here. The hope is that they select a number, lift them and stymie the efforts of the protestors. The protestors may be playing the game of bursting out then melting away, only to randomly come out again. There is speculation as well that those being picked up are symbolic people but not the active leaderships of the protests.
At some point the bodies of the dead need to be released by the autghorities and the funerals are considered to be another spark but the state can hang on to them for a bit yet in the hope of taking heat out of the situation. It might work, it might not.
317 another richard
No reason to.
317. Better get my coat
311. Maggie Thatcher Fan December 29th, 2009 at 9:45 pm
Possibility but Labour/LD are the same pool of voters IMO. If Brown holds off I think the said voters will go over to the tories or not vote at all. Labour seats with LD challanger have much higher swings to make any inroad. As we saw in 1997, the swing between tory and LD more genrally was lower. Why do we think any anti Labour swing will be less. IIRC the swing was 5-6% that is the lowest fruit for ld gains from labour?
320. Oldnat - can I say (without irony) I loved your annotated Auld Lang Syne. Worth a special PB award IMO.
“Gordon Brown: Recovery will lead to ‘decade of shared prosperity’”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/29/gordon-brown-recovery-prosperity
310: AndrewG @ 21:44
It is already impossible for a British citizen to be extradicted to any place where they may face the death penalty if convicted or any place outside the EU where their treatment would not be in accord with the ECHR. No new treaty is required.
However, there is nothing that the EU can do, or, I suspect, will really want to do, about the punishment handed down if a Brit breaks the law in a foreign country and is arrested in that country.
318 Is being overweight really anything more than life expectancy though? Just as well Americans had a more relaxed attitude in the past or Teddy Roosevelt amongst others would have been barred from serving.
323 PollyB
Thanks.
Anyone seen StJohn?
Super Super Fernando.
“A blueprint for the fastest railway in Europe will be handed to the Government today for approval.
Ministers hope to decide on a detailed route for a high-speed link between London and the West Midlands by March, so that voters can make a decision at the general election, The Times has learnt.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6970975.ece
324. Gabble December 29th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
Bad politics from Brown!
Nobody belives him! We have the biggest deficiet in the G7 and it needs bridging, i.e spending cuts and tax rises. How will Brown do it? It all needs paying for and the cost goes up by the day! Just look at the Gilts market! Mostly red each day: This indicates no confidence in the Labour government!
Bipolar disorder is a psychotic illness. You might want to google before you state it consists of being depressed then giggling weirdly.
324. What a load of bollocks. Clearly Mandelson and Darling have been unable to restrain the PM.
324. Gabble December 29th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
And the best news is that as the recession has been so moderate, as you have told us, there will be no need for spending cuts or tax rises after the election.
Would be nice if Gordon could be just a little more emphatic on the last point. Perhaps he could borrow George HW’s line: “Read my lips. No new taxes.”
Btw, I assume tax cuts will be coming soon, given the surging fiscal and macro-economic outlook?
319.”The protestors may be playing the game of bursting out then melting away, only to randomly come out again. There is speculation as well that those being picked up are symbolic people but not the active leaderships of the protests.”
Yokel, agree with that view. All the media attention and hype surrounding the election seems to have melted away, and this meant that it all disappeared off the radar for a while until now. You just get a feeling that its like a simmering pot with occasional bursts of steam, but with the potential to get up enough of a head of steam at some point that will blow the lid clean off again.
332. How much deeper in debt is the country going to be after all Gordon’s election bribes? He bunged us £2.8 billion just before the C&N by-election and look what happened there.
Peter Mandelson, the minister without Children lectures parents on treating Children with tough Love!
http://women.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/women/families/article6969872.ece
You could not make it up!
Strangely he does not mention his governments policies has led to mass unemployment in the young 
324.He needs a new chat up line and quick.
“Recession over, says Gordon Brown, as he attacks ‘privileged few’”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6970926.ece
326- We also don’t elect ridiculously ugly people as president. It may not be fair, but that’s reality.
318 - I’m right in thinking that Governor Huckabee was a bit on the large side? But then lost a lot of weight
339- Yes, he was. He’s slim and trim now, though.
337 - Got to love the picture editor’s selection on that Times article. He looks positively mad… If this recession isn’t over (though I suspect we will see one quarter of growth at least) he is going to really suffer. I still find it bizarre that Labour thinks that economic recovery will save them. It hardly helped John Major and he won an election during a recession…
340 - I’ve liked him, ever since he cracked the funniest and rudest joke i’ve heard from a Presidential candidate.
313 Richard - I actually agree with you about the Miliband Bros., they certainly don’t inspire me, but there again nor do any of the other leading contenders. I also agree that Benn is sound but he doesn’t appear to have any power base as was witnessed at the time of the Deputy leadership contest.
The out and out value bet is probably the 20/1 available from Stan James for Jon Cruddas, compared with Ladbrokes’ odds of only 12/1. I don’t think he’ll win, but he’ll be the Left’s leading candidate if he holds his seat at the GE, which unlike my esteemed partner in TOTY I believe he will. Expect his odds then to shorten to around 6/1 or 7/1 making him an excellent trading proposition.
337. Gabble December 29th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
I am paying now for Gordon Browns economic failure and will do so in any recovery.
Labours economic plan has failed as has the Labour government! They need to be thrown out of office, the sooner the better!
Couple of Telegraph articles:
“Tories to ban expensive computer projects”
A Conservative government would ban expensive state computer projects by imposing a £100 million cap on information technology spending.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/6901601/Tories-to-ban-expensive-computer-projects.html
“Four million to pay inheritance tax under Labour”
Inheritance tax is set to become a key election battlefield after the Conservatives issued new figures predicting that four million people would be liable for the levy under Labour.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/6901116/Four-million-to-pay-inheritance-tax-under-Labour.html
MP accuses accountants of cashing in on recession
The SNP’s Mike Weir says that insolvency fee levels need to be investigated
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/mp-accuses-accountants-of-cashing-in-on-recession-1852235.html
337 I assume that’s a veiled attack on Harriet Harman, Ed Balls, Sean Woodward, Lord Sainsury et al.
“DPP rejects Tory plans to give homeowners the right to kill burglars
Britain’s top prosecutor faced charges he is a ’socialist’ yesterday after he flatly rejected Tory plans to give homeowners the right to kill burglars.”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1238970/DPP-rejects-plea-changes-self-defence-law-wake-Munir-Hussain-case.html#ixzz0b7U2KHSq
“90% of pupils miss GCSE target in some areas, Conservatives say
Shadow children’s secretary Michael Gove says Tories will give teachers more powers to keep order in classroom”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2009/dec/29/pupils-gcse-target-conservatives
“If Gordon Brown continues to pile taxes on Britain’s wealth creators, then he is likely to find that more of them will be voting with their feet.”
“[rich as creases] Richard Balfour-Lynn, the hotel and retail tycoon who owns Liberty, the department store, as well as the Malmaison and Hotel du Vin franchises, says he is likely to be among them.”
“Balfour-Lynn, 56, expressed sympathy for Zac Goldsmith, standing for the Tories in the general election, who was criticised for using his non-domicile status to avoid paying tax on some of his income. “What do they expect him to do?” he asks.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/gordon-brown/6906785/Brain-drain-beckons-for-Liberty-boss-Richard-Balfour-Lynn.html
Why’s he even pausing to tell us? If he doesn’t want to pay his fair share, why doesn’t he just sod off.
345 “The Conservatives will restore inheritance tax to what it was designed to be – a tax on the very rich – and ensure that it is only paid by millionaires.”
C’mon CCHQ, someone tell Osborne to rebrand it the Dead Millionaires Tax…
“If you aren’t a dead millionaire, you won’t need to worry about the old Inheritence Tax any more… Labour tax the many; Tories will only tax dead millionaires.”
350 Gabble
“rich as creases” is normally written “rich as Croesus”.
You really are a living national treasure.
351. Marquee Mark
Except the tories are raising the threshold to 2 million, so that defence doesn’t really work, does it?
351 - I’m glad to see them go onto the attack about the policy. Keep it going with the NI increase on £20k+ and some good private sector growth policies. A winning combination. No one listens to Brown anymore. It’s time they heard more from Cameron & Co.
350. Gabble December 29th, 2009 at 10:36 pm
Maybe he does not think it is fair?
Personally i think 40% too much! I am on the dole! Taxation should be viewed as a percentage of something is better than nothing! Labour are going to cause many folk to go! Not even your south asian doctors who work for the tax payer funded NHS will welcome 50% plus taxation!
Stupid Stupid Stupid! But that sums Labour up all the way!
350. What is a fair share, Gabble?
Should a rich person pay 50+% of their income to the government on top of VAT, road tax, excise duty, etc etc? And if a rich person should immediately pay more than half their income to your party - so you can spunk it on losers and asylum seekers - why not make them pay…. more?
Why not make them pay 60% of their income? Even 70%? After all, they are rich, they can afford it. Can’t they? Indeed, why not make them pay a real “fair share”, like, say, the 83% if income the last Labour government ended up imposing on “rich” people, in 1979.
It’s a DAMN good idea, and of course, it won’t affect you. You are a Labour MP, and almost every £100,000 you earn is tax free with extra perks and a nice big fat public sector pension.
Labour. Hating The Middle Class Since 1912.
337 I still cannot believe the sheer brass neck it takes to trumpet a recovery that hasn’t even officially begun yet.
350 - Rich as creases, is brilliant.
I’m sorry, i take back all the nasty things i’ve ever said about you.
353. Gabble December 29th, 2009 at 10:40 pm
Show me real evidence of that! Not Labour party proganda!!!!
On IHT, may I remind posters of OGH’s comments on the threshold being £1million, not £2million…
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/22/should-the-indycomres-have-heeded-sir-humphreys-advice/#comment-1357039
353 Ah, the £2 million lie again.
Labour just embarrasses itself with its innumeracy whenever it opens its mouth on IHT.
“Labour tax the many; Tories will only tax dead millionaires” - tell me where that statement is wrong, Gabble.
359. Martin Day
I know The Telegraph passes for Labour propaganda in some quarters but it’s the best I can do for now:
“Tories plan to raise inheritance tax threshold to £2 million”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/2663564/Tories-plan-to-raise-inheritance-tax.html
306 PfP - David H disagrees with the probabilities I suggested in two main respects:
1) He gives a much bigger probability to Harriet becoming leader, and therefore a lower probability to the Miliband brothers;
2) He rates Ed’s chances as higher than David’s.
I’m reasonably confident on the Harriet side, mainly because I think she will be too old to undertake this (probably thankless) job under circumstances where she might herself be damaging to the party - it would be different if she were a conciliatory and unifying figure able to consolidate support from all parts of the party and appeal to a wide spectrum of voters.
On the Miliband side, I’m less confident that I’ve got it the right way around; I can’t claim any special insights into how the unions and activists might split (although, as antifrank points out, a lot depends on whether Ed stands down in favour of David, or of course vice versa).
Either way, I think the odds in the market are out of kilter with reality. In particular, the odds on Alan Johnson and on Lord Mandelson look far too short, and that distorts the whole market.
The bottom line, IMO, is that backing a basket of Milibands is pretty attractive, as your arithmetic suggests.
Two caveats: My guesstimates of the probabilities assumed a post-GE change of leader. If Brown were to go pre-GE, AJ would have a better chance, but DM would IMO still be favourite (but EM less likely). Also, I’m looking at this very much as an outsider; Labour insiders might have a totally different perspective.
358 TSE
If I’m pressed for an example, I would say it is Chris Huhne that is rich as creases.
364 - Brilliant.
Gabble December 29th, 2009 at 10:45 pm
Gabble that is from 2008!!!!
It say Labour increased the limit - Do you oppose Labour in increasing the limit in 2007/08? Do tell!
359. Martin Day
Is Paul Waugh too left wing for you?
“Tories plan £2million break on inheritance tax”
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23549305-tories-plan-2million-break-on-inheritance-tax.do
On Brighton Pavilion, I wonder if it would be so likely to go Green if there were 50+ Green MPs in Westminster.
There is something about Sussex that fosters non-conforming clumps of individualists. The county is a pleasant place to be marooned from reality.
368. The £2 million figure is for families/couples, you repetitive goon.
Gabble December 29th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
That does not get round the fact that Labour increased the limit - Do you oppose that?
I know non dom donors to the Labour party like Lord Paul (Who claimed he lived in a property his hotel manager stayed in will benifit)assuming he becomed domicilled in the uk but do you oppose Labour increasing the threshold?
368 - You once told us all, that we shouldn’t believe everything we read in the papers. Follow your own advice.
Remember, what is sauce for the Glands*
*Sorry, riches as creases, is making me giggle uncontrollably, so much so, my wife thinks I’m watching some niche pron on pronhub.com
I would place a modest wager that, as so often in the past, Gabble did not actually read the article he said suppoetrd his claim. After all if he had he would have seen that it didn’t.
Still, for posting “Rich as Creases” he, perhaps, deserves some slack just this once.
370. AndrewG
So, many millionaires would be exempt from IHT under the tories.
Glad we can agree on that.
374 - Gabble, you do realise, the Tory IHT policy is popular.
363 Richard - in my post 306 I did in fact refer to the two aspects in which David Herdson disagrees with your assessment of the Miliband Bros’ chances.
I do take your point about AJ having better prospects of the leadership before rather than after the GE. nevertheless I rate his prospects as very low in either case - I rate my sell of him at 8.0 on Sporting’s 25 index as one of my better bets of the year of course I haven’t collected yet, but am 98% confident of doing so.
Seth O Logue - “Rich as Creases - Chris Huhne”.
I nominate that as a late but sterling contender for pb Gag of the Year.
Bravo!
374. Yes. And I, like so many voters in this fine country, would one day like to be one of them.
Re the Miliband brothers, do we know if one is more likely to stand aside for the other Brother to have a clear run at the Leadership?
368. Gabble December 29th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
Indeed if Lord Paul claimed to be living at the property where his hotel manager lived, does it still make him a non dom for tax payer purposes? I have not looked at how many times Lord Paul went to the Lords and claimed but he may well have shot himself twice in the foot with that!
I would advise the tories to look into that as it could well be embarrasing for the Labour party!
375. TSE
Tax cuts are usually popular in isolation but their popularity should be judged against the cost elsewhere.
381 - If only Gordon Brown was so concenred about costs when he was Chancellor, so we wouldn’t have record peacetime borrowing that we have now.
379 TSE - I guess only they know that, but in the MoS’ weekend story about the “Gang of Five”, it was suggested that David would run irrespective of Ed decided.
I can’t help wondering if we are to have a Green MP at Westminster, whether this will produce the same horrified hysteria that accompanied the election of a BNP MEP.
After all, the BNP arguably hate certain groups of people in the world. The Greens, in some of their manifestations, seem to hate the entire human race.
Just one comment on this
Like all the seats up for grabs in the GE I don’t care who wins so long as its not Labour.
383 - Thanks, I have visions of a labour leadership that will feature, husband and wife, and brothers.
377 SeanT
I am flattered but have to decline as accepting the nomination would require me to give credit to Gabble: an act of profligacy beyond even the imagination of Gordon Brown.
Suspect colleges discovered twice a month
Suspected bogus colleges are being unearthed at a rate of almost two a month despite the Government’s supposed tough crackdown.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6907115/Suspect-colleges-discovered-twice-a-month.html
364 - Coming back to the post-election leadership, surely we would need to consider what the position of Labour will be after the election. If it is hung parliament, it will need to be a rapid coronation so who would win that (assuming that Brown doesn’t try and hang on). If it is a modest 1979 style defeat then they will surely try and select someone who could appeal to the public, to develop policies based on existing principles and try and have a run at victory in 2014/5. If they go down to an 83 style defeat then they will be looking for someone who can present a strong face to the public, whilst the party develops new policies in the background and tries to work out if it will be New Labour or not…
The Army is weighed down with top brass, according to figures showing that the number of generals and brigadiers has risen since Labour came to power in 1997.
Although the size of the trained Army has shrunk to about 100,000 soldiers, there are now 255 members with the rank of brigadier or above — or one for every 400 service personnel.
The disclosure will put pressure on the cash-strapped Ministry of Defence to force the retirement of “desk generals”, who can earn £160,000 a year, to make more resources available for frontline troops. Privates going on their first overseas mission earn about £20,000 a year, including separation and operational allowances.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6969921.ece
England ready to pull out of Commonwealth Games over terror risk
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/commonwealthgames/6908454/England-ready-to-pull-out-of-Commonwealth-Games-over-terror-risk.html
381 - Ah, the your money is ours unless we decide to let you have some of it defence. I yearn for the day that a government remembers the only money it has is our money and that it can only obtain that through the consent of the population. Every time I see that I remember how much a loathe Labour plus the Brown bonus hatred on top.
388 johnno
Is UEA on the list or is one of those missed?
A story of our times
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1239025/I-stolen-kitchen–eBay-Burglars-caught-selling-8-000-booty-website.html
384. Ben Elford December 29th, 2009 at 11:06 pm
I know it is not popular but i would welcome a BNP member of parliament, even though i would not vote for them! It would show labour up for what they have done!
Unemployment estimates drop - unless the Tories win:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6970236.ece
And what do we make of this?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6969978.ece
Oddity 1 is that all MPs have been instructed that usage is not just restricted till the election but virtually banned - we can use it for advertising surgeries and that’s about all. Oddity 2 is that this appears to be an all-party decision - have the Opposition parties dropped their islike of the CA?
Apologies if these have been linked to before - am only looking in sporadically.
I see the infidel war has moved on to…. Speed Cameras:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1239149/Police-hunt-motorist-blew-speed-camera-BOMB.html
381. I think you will find the abolition of IHT remains singularly and emphatically popular, almost above and beyond the logic of its benefits.
People just resent paying money WHEN THEY DIE to a government which has already leeched off them all their lives.
An example: my very very working class step-grandmother (I have a complex family) recently died in some austerity, despite being fairly well off (having saved money all her life).
I asked my dad this Christmas why she lived in such subdued circumstances, despite having a wholly-owned house and cash in the bank. He said she was determined the government wouldn’t get any of her money through the Death Tax, as she wanted to hand her estate on, in toto, to her grandson (her only daughter died a few years back).
She apparently said she has “paid tax all her life, she was damned if she’d pay it yet again on money she had earned and been taxed on”.
She thought if she appeared poor, the government would be less likely to come after her estate when she died.
Her method was irrational, but her motivation is shared by millions.
The fact you don’t see this (like tim) shows how divorced you lot have become from regular people.
A few weeks ago I thought the Tories should rein in their IHT proposals. Now I have changed my mind. The Tories should keep these proposals, and indeed announce them proudly: because the tax really is hated by almost everyone. The Tories must meanwhile emphasise that Labour HATE middle class people, as they hate anyone with ambition, talent, and aspiration.
This is the case, and it will enable Cameron to win. Your class war tactics are going to doom you to opposition for a decade.
Re my post at 394
Is there any reason police don’t routinely check Ebay and other auction sites after burglaries? It seems like a fairly obvious thing to do.
Why on earth do Brown and Clegg think the public wants to hear from them in the middle of the Christmas/New Year Holidays? Don’t they realise nobody with any sense is listening?
398 - My late Grandmother, “loved” the idea, that the only time in her life, she would pay the higher rate of tax, was when she died.
396 - NPMP. From the unemployment article, I note that the planned NI hike will also slow unemployment reduction…. If there is job losses in the public sector caused by public sector cuts - that is inevitable whoever wins - then surely the party with the best private sector growth programmes is going to be best placed to cut unemployment. Don’t see much from Labour yet…
386 TSE
“I have visions of a labour leadership that will feature, husband and wife, and brothers.”
So do I - but with no other members!
400 - GIN, Cameron did one a day or so ago as well. It does seem a rather odd thing to do for all of them really.
398 SeanT
The Tories have really gone to town on the “class war” narrative. They know Britain hates class war - that appeals to unity will always be looked on more favourably than appeals to division.
Gordon Brown won his first ever PMQs with the line about “the playing fields of Eton” but it is coming back to haunt him again and again and again.
It makes me laugh and laugh.
They are desperately trying to row back on it. Jack Straw, Tessa Jowell, and even Ed Balls have been forced to deny the class war strategy - but they just can’t explain away “the playing fields of Eton” remark, made by the Prime Minister of our country, live on PMQs.
396. Nick Palmer MP December 29th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
Unempolyment is 5 millon mate!
Not 2.5 Million! Labour have done nothing for the unemployed, meanwhile Labour keep letting folk into this country! I suppose given the differential standard of living working for £3 an hour and living in a dose house is better than where they came from!!!
403 - So long as they are visions, and not fantasies.
Those sort of fantasies can get a person sectioned.
Were the polling figures headlined by Mike at the top of this thread fully weighted by ICM? This would be especially important presumably for such a small sample? I must be a very unusual being as I very seldom seem to encounter a single Green supporter and it strikes me as extraordinary that their poll rating could reach such very high levels in this Brighton constituency - I assume this is greatly influenced by the student vote. Could this vote be jeopardised were the GE to be held on 25 March, just a matter of days before the Easter holiday?
391- Speaking of terrorism, one of the most famously pro-Obama reporters at the AP, Jennifer Loven, has penned a surprisingly critical piece comparing Obama’s response to the recent terrorist incident on the Amsterdam-Detroit flight to Bush’s Katrina response:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2009/Dec/29/analysis__many_question__system_worked__comment.html
“[A]dministration officials’ repeated statements that “the system worked” were jarring. They made it sound like the administration doesn’t get it, like it is paying too much attention to political fallout and too little to public fears.”
“Until Monday, the president had not been heard from publicly since the Christmas Day scare. He was ordering after-action reviews behind the scenes, but also enjoying his Hawaiian vacation with games of golf, basketball and tennis. He also drew questions by not getting his first briefing on the incident until two hours after it was all over — and then only for 15 minutes, when he departed for the gym.”
“It has been a pattern for Obama: letting a situation unfurl out of his control while underlings attempt to manage it, then swooping back into the lead role, usually successfully. It happened with the hated financial industry bailout and this summer’s health care debate. And now this.”
This latter observation is one that’s become more and more stark to me as Obama’s presidency has developed. Indeed, for me, it is quickly becoming the very hallmark of his presidency. Why is Obama so passive about everything? Is he afraid to get his fingerprints on anything, afraid of being blamed for something if it doesn’t go right? Is he naturally averse to taking a real leadership role? Can’t be bothered? What is it?
408 - I think the students will take advantage of postal voting. if the election is on 25th March.
404. Really? You’d think a PR like Cam would know all the public wants from their politicians right now is for them to go away and shut up for a couple of weeks!
Loonie Leftie Roger said “she’d get the Wasabi vote. One less for the BNP I suppose.”
Loonie Leftie should pray to his god (small ‘g’, probably Tony Blair or Josef Stalin, or Pol Pot) he believes in, that my views dont mean a vote for the BNP.
My views are mainstream. If my views meant a vote for the BNP, the BNP would be mainstream.
We are the majority. He is an insignificant minority extremist.
Gabble
Do you approve of Alistair Darling’s repeated flipping of his taxpayer funded properties to allow him to evade his Capital Gains Tax requirement?
405. Yes, it was and is a calamitous mistake, the Class War Attack.
For a start it invades and invitiates all their other assaults. When Hillary Benn starts banging on about foxhunting, people just think - “Oh, it’s Labour attacking rich people again”. And so Benn sounds sour and envious, and any benefit is lost.
Moreover, it takes a tiny shift for this attack on “rich” people to seem like an attack on all middle class people (and the rise in NI, for anyone on an income of 20k, emphasises that Labour resent middle class people as well as rich people)
If the middle classes truly turn against Labour they are done for. The working-classes-who-vote comprise maybe 20% of the electorate. And half of them aspire to be middle class.
In short, “Class War 2.0″ is a huge strategic error made for short term tactical gain. Classic Brown.
Al-Qaeda ‘groomed Abdulmutallab in London’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6971098.ece
405. “They are desperately trying to row back on it. Jack Straw, Tessa Jowell, and even Ed Balls have been forced to deny the class war strategy - but they just can’t explain away “the playing fields of Eton” remark, made by the Prime Minister of our country, live on PMQs.”
Mind you they also can’t explain away almost everything Brown has done since becoming PM and most of what he did as Chancellor.
Making excuses for Brown is a full time and very difficult job. At least John Hutton showed some foresight when he said:
“It would be an absolute f*cking disaster if Gordon Brown was PM, and I’ll do anything in my power to f*cking stop him.”
406 Martin said “I suppose given the differential standard of living working for £3 an hour and living in a dose house is better than where they came from!
They dont live in a doss house. It takes a lot of money to support the Labour voter.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1235604/Single-mother-living-2-6m-mansion–Labours-housing-benefit-crackdown.html
Is it my imagination or has the proportion of Tory:Non-Tory posts on this site over recent weeks reduced from around 60%:40% previously to nearer level pegging? I do appreciate that this has occurred partly as a result of certain previously pro-Tory posters having changed their allegiance.
408 PfP
The timing of the election is unlikely to make much difference. Many (if not the vast majority) of students will be registered to vote in both Brighton and their home constituency. With the easy option of postal voting nowadays, it’s easy to select which constituency to vote in (or actually to vote in both, since there is no cross-checking between constituencies!)
396 Indeed, Nick. If the government borrows vast amounts of money, and spends it on paying people to build sandcastles, that reduces unemployment in the very short term. If you borrow even more, and pay even more people to build sandcastles, and perhaps pay another bunch of people to wash away the sandcastles, unemployment will be reduced - for a while - even more.
That doesn’t, however, mean that such a policy is a good idea. Or, if it is, why don’t you propose it?
(Oh I forgot - you do propose more or less that).
Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab organised ‘War on Terror Week’ while studying at UCL
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6971071.ece
For the record Tory IHT plans are 1 million. Its only 2 million if there are two of you and you can roll one person’s over. It’s still only 1 million each.
There are many couples who utilise two single person’s tax allowances. That doesn’t make the single persons allowance 13 grand.
Richard Navadi,
Well said. It does take a wilful blindness to reality to think that the boom and bust approach taken by Labour to debt is going to lead to higher employment. Economic growth would improve people’s chances of a job but as we’ve seen in the FT today Labour aren’t very good at that,
“Information provided by the Office of National Statistics to the FT shows that gross domestic product, on average, rose by 1.7 per cent annually in real terms throughout the so-called noughties, Britain’s weakest period of economic expansion of any since the 1940s.
Manufacturing was particularly hard hit and, on average, after adjusting for inflation, output actually contracted over the decade by 1.2 per cent annually.”
396 NPMP
There is much latent and undisclosed unemployment in the economy.
The private sector have preferred wage restraint or cuts to redundancy wherever possible. This is a gamble on demand for their products and services recovering as the recession ends. If it doesn’t - if we get a double dip recession or even minimal growth - then the dams will break and figures will leap disproportionately in 2010.
Public sector employment will be more driven by government policy. A Tory government is likely to make deeper and faster cuts than Labour. Short term pain will chosen in the hope of delivering earlier relief.
Whatever the size of the increase in 2010, the reported figures will need to be seen in context of overall ‘unemployment’ of 6 million which has been salami sliced into more palatable reported figures by the current government.
SeanT
I’m sorry to hear about your step-grandmother and the austere circumstances she was living in, upto her death. It sounds as though her hatred of Inheritance Tax spread back through many governments?
I expect the IHT cut will become more popular as house prices begin to rise again. Just as its recent relative unpopularity has been exacerbated by the fall in house prices.
However, it is still a gift to Labour. The tories’ ‘age of austerity’ will not sit well with a promise to cut a tax for only the richest families in the country, especially when contrasted against other more equitable options.
We could have near full employment tomorrow Nick if you were prepared to spend enough. Unfortunately you would be doing it for this generation and the expense of all those to come.
Don’t you get that yet. When people in their 40s and 50s borrow huge sums that they can’t pay back, they are forcing their kids to pay their debts.
I think of it as theft.
Gabble
Do you approve of Alistair Darling deliberately evading Capital Gains Tax by flipping the second home designation of his Tax Payer Funded properties.
Why is tax evasion ok for Labour MPs but not for the rest of us?
427. JonathanD
I don’t approve of anybody evading taxes.
You make a libellous allegation against Alistair Darling - I trust you can back it up?
415- “Security sources are concerned that the picture emerging of Mr Abdulmutallab’s undergraduate years suggests that he was recruited by al-Qaeda in London.”
This can’t be true… Obama has told us so, calling him an “isolated extremist.”
http://www.examiner.com/x-16146-Wilmington-Religion–Politics-Examiner~y2009m12d29-Obama-labels-terrorist-isolated-extremist
GIN at 400: New Year messages from the party leaders are a standard part of the landscape and have been for years, but as you say they are water off a duck’s back for most people.
My Tory opponent chose Christmas Eve to write an email with a highly political message defending the Tory sale of all care homes in Notts, after 8 months of complete blog/email silence. I’d say you could read it here
http://www.broxtoweconservatives.com/anna_blog.html
except that after putting it up on Boxing Day they seem to have taken it down again - link to the “26.12.9″ entry and find a blank page. Perhaps their electronic strategy is a cunning plot - it certainly baffles me.
In the same period my email list has had 27 updates:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxtoweInfo/messages
Does the electronic sphere matter? It’s hard to say. 10% of constituents subscribe to my updates (often because someone else recommended them as useful - my model was Focus newsletters, which people read for helpful info), but one can overdo the electronic war and forget there’s another 90% out there. In 10 years I suspect it’ll be the main battleground, though.
428. Jonathan probably meant tax avoidance. I say, probably as many think of flipping as borderline crinimal. Many have said as much in public interviews.
In any event, I think it unlikely Darling would sue for fear of bringing it to public attention. I suspect most people would think the ‘offense’ was not Jonathan’s.
425. Weep not. I disliked my step grandmother. I thought she was a mean old ratbag. As indeed she was.
Doesn’t affect my point though. Your New Class War is a major error, and if the Tories have any sense they will feed your enthusiasm for the death tax into this promising narrative:
Labour Hate Talent, Aspiration, Ambition and Wealth, and will punish anyone who exhibits these tendencies.
Presumably the rifts we are hearing, re Mandelson and the Pogrom of the Kulaks, confirm that the more polished turds in your cess pit of a party have realised what a mistake you are making.
Hmm, genial hosts, not sure why my idle chatter about electronic campaigning has got stuick in moderation?
428 - Well someone should tell the Daily Mail
How can Alistair Darling declare war on tax evasion when he’s guilty of evading tax himself?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-1189087/EDWARD-HEATHCOAT-AMORY-How-Alistair-Darling-declare-war-tax-evasion-hes-guilty-evading-tax-himself.html
Things are heating up in Iran. Iranians are losing patience with those in power.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1239251/The-moment-Iranian-protesters-cut-prisoners-gallows.html
They are openly trying to rescue people from public hangings.
430. SallyC: “…I think it unlikely Darling would sue for fear of bringing it to public attention.”
Oh, that’s OK then.
Libel away - it’s not my site.
433. Has he sued?
436 - No he hasn’t, so it represents fair comment.
432- Drop the part about V1agra and C1alis.
Re: Alistair Darling & Flipping:
MPs’ expenses: How Cabinet ministers have made tens of thousands ‘flipping’ their homes
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1179291/MPs-expenses-How-Cabinet-ministers-tens-thousands-flipping-homes.html#ixzz0b7p7AJ8a
MPs’ expenses: How Alistair Darling nominated four properties as second home in four years
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5418768/MPs-expenses-How-Alistair-Darling-nominated-four-properties-as-second-home-in-four-years.html
Gabble, well you should not believe everything you read on the internet. still good to see you think that Darlings behaviour was fine and if he’s proud of it why would he be going around suing people for pointing it out? we should celebrate ingenuity in this country.
Gabble, well you should not believe everything you read on the internet. still good to see you think that Darlings behaviour was fine and if he’s proud of it why would he be going around suing people for pointing it out? we should celebrate ingenuity in this country.
431. SeanT
I’m not very comfortable with the class war stuff. I don’t think you can blame somebody for aspects of their life beyond their control.
However, there is something unseemly about people who were born and brought up in privilege, gaining public office to further enrich the privileged, at the expense of the less well off. I think the public understand that.
364 “I’m reasonably confident on the Harriet side”
Also Cruddas seems to be making BFF with the person most likely to drain all Harperson’s support.
442 - However, there is something unseemly about people who were born and brought up in privilege, gaining public office to further enrich the privileged
You mean like the time, Gordon Brown kicked the lower income earners in the knackers by abolishing the 10p tax band, so he could cut the taxes for better off?
Security around the Honours List remains tight I see:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/celebritynews/6908357/Jenson-Button-and-Patrick-Stewart-named-in-New-Years-honours-list.html
431 SeanT
We’ve had a number of interesting posts here on the idiocy of racists (and related forms of bigotry) who stereotype groups of other people as all sharing the same beliefs/characteristics as the stereotypes - despite demonstrable evidence to the contrary.
You exhibit all these characteristics. Maybe we need to invent a new term for you and your equivalents who support the other parties - “partyist” sounds right.
Blair and Mandelson clearly fawned upon those with wealth, for example.
Clearly you share some attributes with your step grandmother - though it clearly isn’t by genetic transmission.
442. ‘However, there is something unseemly about people who were born and brought up in privilege, gaining public office to further enrich the privileged, at the expense of the less well off. I think the public understand that…..[is just in your head].
429 - Quoting out of context again? Tut, tut…
As LGF said about it -
“All of the wingnut blogs are screaming that in his statement about the Northwest 253 terror attack, President Obama called the alleged terrorist an “isolated extremist.”
This one comes straight from Karl Rove and Fox News, and it’s already everywhere on the right wing: ‘isolated extremist’ - Google Search.
They’re trying to trick people into thinking that Obama said the terrorist acted alone — but this is simply a flat out lie.
Because in the very same speech, President Obama also said this:
“A full investigation has been launched into this attempted act of terrorism, and we will not rest until we find all who were involved and hold them accountable.”
You have to wonder if there’s a point at which these bloggers and Fox News will feel ashamed of themselves for spreading such deliberate falsehoods. They just fall in line like mindless parrots and repeat this stuff without even bothering to check if it’s true.”
http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/35469_Outrageous_Outrage_of_the_Day-_Obamas_Isolated_Extremist_Remark
P.S. - Rich as creases is just priceless.
433 TSE
Such behaviour isn’t unusual. The US neo-cons declared a “War on Terror”, though they supported terrorism themselves.
444. TSE
Yes. That sort of thing. The public didn’t like it, did they?
Front pages
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/The-Papers-National-Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-Wednesday-December-30-2009/Media-Gallery/200912415510154?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15510154_The_Papers%3A_National_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_Wednesday%2C_December_30%2C_2009
447. I take that back. The Blairs may be the ultimate example of office for avarice.
450 - Gabble. You asked for evidence. It is at 439. We await your condemnation…
Retired ‘Brits’ are having their legally built homes demolished without compensation.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1239219/Bulldozer-threat-Britons-villas-Expats-Spain-fight-save-homes.html
They retired to Spain and built their homes with legally issued planning permission. For “some reason”, the planning permission has been torn up at a higher level. What “reason” could that be? Hmmm…
1) What does Labour do to protect them?
2) What does European Human Rights do to protect them?
3) What would happen if this happened to Spaniards in Britain?
4) Are British people protected at all by a Labour government? Or is every foreign power lining up to kick the British?
5) Would Labour protest if they were South Asian?
On expenses, I don’t know if this got missed in the Christmas run-up:
“Two MPs at the centre of the criminal investigation into Parliamentary expenses are understood to be refusing to co-operate fully with the police, the Daily Telegraph has learnt.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/6874618/Two-MPs-at-centre-of-expenses-investigation-refuse-to-co-operate-fully-with-police.html
449 - Please, please don’t get me started on Neo cons.
454 - Maybe they just don’t like immigrants. :snark:
448- But you’re giving no meaning whatsoever to Obama’s statement that the terrorist is an “isolated extremist,” although you don’t deny he said it. Just like when Obama famously denounced a police officer last summer without having the facts, he has also rushed to the conclusion that the terrorist is an “isolated extremist” without having the facts. In both cases, his preconceptions have gone in front of his better judgment.
“431. SeanT
I’m not very comfortable with the RACE war stuff. I don’t THINK you can blame somebody for aspects of their life beyond their control.
by Gabble December 30th, 2009 at 12:00 am”
Gabble - not entirely sure about RACE war, but suspects it is possibly a bad thing.
453. SthLondon Nick
I condemn anybody who evades taxes and if Darling is ever convicted of such, I will condemn him.
398 That’s the way to argue IHT too - make a moral case.
Very kind of LondonStatto and TSE to enquire after my wellbeing.
Football is a cruel mistress and I’m sick as a parrot.
But Football is also a game of two halves and at this stage in the season, I think Villa’s cup is half full - of Carling.
456 TSE
Oh, go on. You know you want to.
457 Well, we know you dont like Brits.
462 - I think the only difference between the two sides, was the world’s best striker.
If we don’t make it into the Champs League spots, i sincerely hope Villa do..
Agreed re “Rich as Creases”. Great joke.
458 - He was isolated as there was nobody with him. Confused as to how that doesn’t mean isolated.
For the wider context Obama said ‘them’ and I can’t understand how ‘them’ is supposed to has been twisted to mean a singular person when the reference was to the network behind him.
The English language is taking a hell of a battering in some parts.
466.
stjohn December 20th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
I’ve backed Villa to win the Premiership at 329/1! It’s not so impossible now. If they pull it off I will be as rich as creases.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/12/20/what-will-be-the-regnal-name-of-the-next-king/#comment-887815
463 - One of the policies the Tories should incorporate into their next manifesto, is the public waterboarding of neo cons at Trafalgar square every day, for the rest of their natural lives.
Yes, Douglas Feith, Paul Wolfowitz, Tony Blair, Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and George W Bush, you know what awaits you, your scandalous and woefully inadequate planning for post war Iraq.
Which allowed us to take our eyes of Afghanistan.
44. ‘I take it no-one thinks the Green Party have a programme likely to attract voters.’
Not true. I live in Brighton Pavilion and the Greens are well known here. They have more than half of the local councillors in the constituency - including all the councillors for my ward since 1999.
People vote Green repeatedly here, no doubt because they like what they see of the party and what it does.
And forget the Lib Dems. They have never been a strong force in Brighton (currently two members of the City Council - both of them in Hove - compared with 13 Green, 13 Labour and 26 Tory).
460 - Thank you for that moral equivalence. It will make your demanding condemnation on anything so much more hilarious…
Why or why can’t we get more Labour correspondents like NPMP? He may disagree with you or you with him, but at least you can have a decent debate.
464 - You’re very weak at trolling you know, basing a troll remark on something utterly off base just doesn’t work.
You should take lessons off our space missing labour troll, at least they’re funny.
460 In the light of your comments about Andy Coulson, I assumed you would not await for conviction in a criminal court before passing judgement.
469 TSE
You are just trying to persuade me to vote Tory, by advocating a wholly sensible policy. It won’t work.
473 - So you’re saying, SNP policies aren’t sensible policies, and that’s why you’re supporting them?
I finally understand Scottish Nationalists now
470. SthLondon Nick
lol
I look forward to NPMP condemning Darling for tax evasion in the next couple of days.
467- “He was isolated as there was nobody with him.”
Absurd, but funny! I’ll give it three stars.
But even if we go off on your tangent, is that even an accurate observation? Clearly the terrorist wasn’t alone. He was in a plane full of people. Or does it mean he acted alone? Obama doesn’t know if he did or not. Does it mean he had no accomplice on the plane? Obama can’t know that either. Hmmm…
474 TSE
Oddly, most of us can recognise that other parties can have some sensible policies - that’s what separates us from the tribal Unionists.
473 TSE
The only way to get oldnat to vote Tory is to give him his conkers back.
478 - They’ll only try and deep fry the conkers.
472. SallyC
Following an investigation, Coulson was found to have been involved in the bullying of a mentally ill man. He has not denied it or apologised for it, since the verdict.
It is shameful, in light if this, that not a single tory will question his position in the tory hierarchy.
478 Seth
You remembered! I’m impressed.
477 - I’m just testing the waters for the inevitable SNP/Tory Coalition that will take power at Hollyrood in 2011.
479 I hope you’re not stereotyping our ginger, tartan, haggis eating friends.
483 - Hell no, I’m just glad, they cant deep fry whisky
483 SallyC
Pedant alert
You can’t be simultaneously ginger and tartan.
End alert
484 TSE
Nothing is beyond us!
485 - You mean this man, isn’t what a typical Scot looks like?
http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/09_01/russabbot0709_228×411.jpg
481 oldnat
The SNP should be careful about pillow talk in the wee hours of the morning! Idle talk costs votes.
480 Gabble
“not a single tory will question his position”. Further up this thread, one did.
You partyists are really sad people.
480. It wasn’t following an investigation. It was following an employment tribunal where Coulson was not personally even represented.
Odd that you should seek to condemn a Tory on that basis and yet seek a conviction to criminal standards for member of the PLP. Not.
487 TSE
Not in those galluses (braces to you)!
Quick request for The Screaming Eagles as I believe you are a lawyer:
Can you confirm what the standard of proof is at an Employment Tribunal? It has been a while since i did my voluntary representational work. Is it still effectively the balance of probabilities or has it been moved up towards “Beyond Reasonable Doubt”?
491 - Damn, their goes another stereotype.
487 I suspect that man of not really being Scottish. I think they look like this:
http://media.photobucket.com/image/mel%20gibson%20william%20wallace/angeljules_23_2006/Braveheart.jpg
at least on match days.
Obiter ad infinitum - Gabble
Coulson sacked a journalist that he didn’t rate.
He failed to protect himself and his company by ensuring that proper employment procedures were followed. With hindsight, it was a costly mistake.
Many other bosses have made the same mistake though no one yet has been penalised by a tribunal to the same extent.
The “bullying of the depressed” story is a red-herring.
Conclusion: Coulson is a tough and impulsive manager. He has treated employment law with an arrogant disregard. We hope he has learnt his lesson.
Time to draw that line in the sand and move on …
489. oldnat: “Further up this thread, one did.”
Which post? I missed it.
492 Balance of probablities. [ie do you feel sorry for the complainant and can the defendent afford it?]
494 SallyC
Told you. They’re true blue.
494 SallyC
Nonsense. He’s far too short.
492 - It is dependent on the case.
The burden is a lot lower on cases of discrimination, bullying.
In fact there is a reverse burden of proof for the employer, that they weren’t bullying, racist, homophobic etc.
For matters of unfair dismissal (where race, age, gender, sexuality, bullying aren’t an issue) then it’s based on the balance of probabilities
496 Gabble
Look for yourself! I’m far too busy dealing with a pack of stereotypifiers!
466. Gabble. Lol! As a serial pun offender, I had completely forgotten that.
I wasn’t trying to steal the joke tonight and anyway it’s better with the trouser press association - but thanks for the reference.
On thread. I’m beginning to think The Greens may be unassailable in BP. I missed the 6/4 earlier today but I’ve just gone in again at 11/10.
495. Seth O. Logue: “Time to draw that line in the sand and move on”
No.
Coulson was found to have been involved in ‘disability discrimination’. His behaviour was abominable and his tory apologists on this site are willing to turn a blind eye to a clear and uncontested (since the verdict) case of bullying, involving a man at the top of their organisation.
There is no honour in the tory party or, more suprisingly, amongst its supporters on this site.
500. TSE.
So either bullying was not the issue at hand in the case in question or if it was, the burden of proof was the employers?
495 - Seth, Gabble wont move on.
I’m just glad Andy Coulson wasn’t responsible for leaking Dr David Kelly’s name to the media.
The Moral indignation would cause Gabble’s head to explode.
503 A civil court does not pass “verdicts”.
Further to 506, the implication of the use of verdict is that Coulson was involved and found guilty in criminal proceedings.
504 - Not quite, there’s a two stage test.
The employee has to present evidence of bullying, either through action or inaction.
However this evidence can be something tedious, like, the boss invited the staff out for a drink after work.
I didn’t go, because it was the night i was having a meal with the wife.
then the employee would have to show, they didn’t pick that night, because they knew the employee couldnt make it.
508 - The final sentence should read
then the employer would have to show, they didn’t pick that night, because they knew the employee couldnt make it.
508/9. TY.
But still, a prima facia case that jumps a very low hurdle effectively reverses the burden of proof?
re 503. Please be careful on this Gabble because Coulson was not on trial as your postings seem to allude. This was an employment tribunal where an ex-NOTW journalist was seeking damages. The same standards of proof that you get in a criminal trial do not apply in such a process.
The only parts of this affair that are privileged for libel purposes are direct pieces of reporting from the case and you have to follow certain standards in those reports.
I assume that you were not at the hearings.
So please could you confine yourself to that which ii is possible for you to raise.
So, Gabble, Darling has to be convicted but Coulson only accused before you condemn him.
We understand you. We really do.
Gabble
Without the full facts and case papers in front of us, we cannot reach a reasoned judgement.
From what has been reported, we have been told of the circumstances under which Matt Driscoll, the Sports journalist on the NOTW, was dismissed:
In the judgment from the Stratford Employment tribunal, it said of his dismissal: “We find the behaviour to have been a consistent pattern of bullying behaviour… with the intention to remove him from their employment, whether through negotiating a settlement package or through a staged process of warnings leading to dismissal.
“The original source of the hostility towards the claimant was Mr Coulson, the then editor of the News of the World; although other senior managers either took their lead from Mr Coulson and continued with his motivation after Mr Coulson’s departure; or shared his views themselves.”
Now most of us on this blog - whether Tory or not - recognise very clearly the patterns of corporate behaviour depicted here. A face suddenly doesn’t fit with the boss and the organisation turns. I have - probably unconsciously at the time - been involved in this both as a perpetrator and recipient.
As to the “mentally-ill” aspects, we know that:
Driscoll told the tribunal that three unwarranted disciplinary charges were brought against him to try to pressure him into resigning.
He said it was the stress of the disciplinary proceedings that made him ill. He has still not fully recovered nearly two years later, the tribunal heard.
Again these symptoms are recognisable from personal experience. No one likes being hounded out of a job and some become genuinely depressed by the experience. Even fewer are lucky enough to have Union support to pursue litigation against the employer.
I certainly regard the events and outcomes described above as typical of a corporate enmployment environment: the bullying is much more systemic than individual. I am not trying to excuse Coulson here - as he clearly originated and tolerated the corporate bullying - but I don’t consider it to be an offence which disqualifies him from future employment.
Perhaps some of Brown’s reshuffled or dismissed ministers might like to take their cases to an employment tribunal. We might then hear some stories of real bullying. Maybe if David Kelly had survived …. but I digress.
[All quotes from the Sports Journalists' Association report of the tribunal case].
See Gabble’s post at 435?
Ironic really.
TSE et al. Thanks for the information.
511 Mike Smithson
I’m sorry, I didn’t see your warning before I posted. I hope it hasn’t crossed any dangerous lines.
510 - sally, yes that’s pretty much the situation
512. Perhaps one day we will find out if Mr Blair really said he felt like a ‘battered spouse’ in his dealings with Mr Brown.
476 - It wasn’t a four or more person ‘event’ like 9/11 or 7/7 is what it means. I’m sure if it was part of a wider attack we would have heard something from other flights.
I didn’t think it was *that* difficult a concept to understand!
TSE. Thanks. Very informative and rather blows out of the water much of what has beenn posted by tim and Gabble on Coulson on the back of the hearing.
I think this is one of those cases where the tag team pushed too long and too hard only to bring the whole thing down themselves by exposing the truth.
I suspect we will be refering back to this thread.
511. Mike Smithson
Fair enough. This is a selection of quotes from the Guardian report on the judgement.
“Conservative party spin doctor Andy Coulson presided over a culture of bullying when he was News of the World editor, an employment tribunal has found today in upholding a claim of unfair dismissal against the paper.”
“Stratford Employment Tribunal upheld former News of the World senior sports writer Matt Driscoll’s claim for unfair dismissal and disability discrimination…”
“Driscoll was sacked in April 2007 while on long-term sick leave for stress-related depression, which the tribunal found had arisen directly as a result of bullying behaviour led by Coulson, who was News of the World editor for four years from 2003.”
“The judgment singled out Coulson for making “bullying” remarks in an email to Driscoll after the first formal warning, letting him know that he thought he should have been sacked.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/dec/18/andy-coulson-bullied-news-of-the-world-reporter
521. Too late.
The Guardian’s ‘take’ on a hearing we now know was stacked against the NOW, where they pretty much had to prove their innocence and one in which which Coulson had no representation.
The truth is far harder to understand than the easy jibes, but thanks to your persistent teasing and probing, it’s become much clearer.
Dead end.
Indeed, the idea that you should seek to end a man’s career permanently on the back of such a thing seems very authoritarian and grossly unfair to say the least.
522 SallyC
“such a thing seems very authoritarian”
Not that I necessarily tag all Labour supporters with that (I have to be careful to avoid charges of hypocrisy
), but the Labour Party was built on the basis of centralised power (there were alternative models like Syndicalism, which they rejected) to achieve Socialism.
When they threw out Socialism because no one would elect them on that basis, the only substantive bit of their philosophy left was authoritarianism.
VOTE GREEN OR THE FOREST GEtTS IT!
FFS where did they carry out this poll? The local recycling centre on a Sunday morning FFS!
FFS the green lettuce brigade won’t get a seat in the local garden centre let alone the HOC! FFS
524 Wayne
Well betting all your money on Lucas not winning Brighton Pavilion should get you a small fortune then. How much have you bet on that?
523. I feel those who experience the need to post in bold are like people who shout over others in an attempt to dominate a conversation.
It’s born out of fear no one will listen and demonstrates a deep insecurity.
May be that insecurity explains the authoritarianism aswell.
Well oldnat. Our attempts at wooing you were always doomed to failure. I am yorkshire pudding. You are battered mars bar. But maybe we can be united as clogs in the arteries of Labour authoritarianism [and fight regional stereotyping of course].
Good night my porridge eating chum.
Just saw on ABC News that the stock value of Obama’s sponsors have dropped by $12m!
So is it that adultery doesn’t pay, or disassociating yourself from it that doesn’t?
Night Sally
527…think you might mean Tiger Woods stock!
Having just spent four days in the pubs of Brighton Pavilion I’m not surprised by this poll. My impression was that a lot of people now see it as the acceptable way to defeat Labour there. I wish her well but the leaflets are positively Dave Spart.
Good news for progressive politics in the UK- and while in most of the country people will vote Labour to keep the tories and fascists out, this may buck the trend
Hopefully 1 Green MP will join the 3 Respect MPs and a few lefty independants as well….