Is this further ammunition for the anti-Brown plotters?
December 28th, 2009
Why I’m still not betting on the general election outcome?
Another morning and the speculation over Brown’s leadership continues in the papers. So how will those “leading cabinet ministers” who are said to want Brown out view this polling data?
For after yesterday morning’s examination of the long-term leader approval rating trends today I’m looking further at the Ipsos-MORI leader approval data but from another angle - what those who told the pollster they are voting Labour think of Mr. Brown. And as can be seen from the chart the numbers are not good for Brown Central.
For just over one in two of the Labour voters in the survey said they were satisfied with Mr. Brown - and more than a third said they were dissatisfied.
That is hardly the base to mount a general election campaign and suggests that with Mr. Brown still in post it’s going to be quite a challenge to motivate even the core vote.
Just contrast that with how declared Conservative supporters rate their leader, Mr. Cameron.
My strong view is that any change of Labour leader will have a beneficial impact on the party’s performance and it is for this reason that I am still not predicting a general election outcome or making long term bets on the spread markets. Brown going could dramatically change the whole environment.
For even more worrying for Labour is that the detailed data shows that 33% of declared Labour supporters say they are “satisfied” with Cameron’s performance.
You can get a bet at 5/1 with Ladbrokes that Brown will not lead Labour at the general election. Yesterday morning it was 8/1.
I think those odds are about right.
Mike Smithson
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No, it’s the economy. No voters will get jobs or have their debts wiped out by Brown going. This is not like Blair or Thatcher who were personally blamed for unpopular policies (poll tax and Iraq) which were easily fixed.
Harman might attract women from the Conservatives but it is hard to see a bounce from any other likely successor.
Looks like Labour base is starting to firm up behind Brown, though likley they wouldn’t much mind a switcheroo at the top. IF it could be pulled off without the bottom somehow falling out.
But really impressive thing is how David Cameron has sold himself to the Tory base AND attracted supporters to his light blue banner. Pretty impressive.
“Over two thirds (69%) believe the result of the next general election is important to them personally … Again, this is higher amongst Conservative supporters than Labour supporters”
Supports Patrick’s higher turnout theory.
re 3. There’s a guest slot from Patrick on turnout that I’ll be running this week.
Re: turnout, key thing will be turnout differentials in contested seats, as opposed to overall; turnout will almost certainly be lower in safe seats, esp Labour ones.
re: satisfation index, Mike do you have comparable numbers for late 1996? Would guess they were somewhat higher for both Major and Blair.
re 6. See slide 11 on this presentation -
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/poll_Dec09charts.pdf
7, OGH - thanks! So Brown is actually in better shape than Major.
However, numbers on slide are net for entire sample. What I was thinking about is/was the satisfaction of party supporters with their own Fearless Leader.
I don’t think anyone in their right mind would want to get hold of the leadership prior to the election. They’re pretending to be jockeying to improve the party’s chances, but they really mean only to keep their names in the ring for after the election.
Balls thinks he’s the heir apparent. They’re merely letting him know otherwise.
Brown still thinks he’s going to win, of course, and won’t back down now.
Worst recession since the war, the party polling 30% on a good day, and despite that substantially more people in his party are satisfied than not.
Like Sea Shanty Irish says you’d need to see how this looks against comparable data for other leaders to draw any firm conclusions about how good or bad these numbers are for Brown. But they don’t seem that terrible on the face of it.
Just one comment on Mike’s “speculation continues” link - this just seems to be somebody else in The Mail commenting on the story The Mail has already run about Straw leading a cabal of cabinet ministers. The story was pretty thin then, and reprinting it on another slow news day doesn’t make it any more substantial.
The thing is that Brown is almost uniquely awful in every way. Labour have done themselves a huge and historic disservice by annointing him. He’s an incompetent and cowardly bully - never a vote winner.
Dave shines out by comparison (but probably less so in absolute terms).
The ‘will they, won’t they’ speculation about Labour defenestrating Brown just goes on and on and on. On the one hand they must because his leadership will destoy them, but on the other hand they can’t because they have tried half-heartedly and failed 2 or 3 times now. Brown will go when he wants to.
For me the much more interesting question is; ‘Will Brown chicken out at the last minute when he finally sees the Labour wipe out coming?’. He must be hugely conflicted himself on this one. The vanity and the cowardice will be having a fight to the death inside his very strange head right now.
3, 4. I believe historically it is in fact possible to predict election turnouts to within a reasonable degree of accuracy from the state of the polls.
12. I believe Gordon Brown has every intention of taking the fight to the Tories at the next election. He has powerful arguments to make in terms of brave economic policy that honestly led the word away from a devasting depression. These policies are in stark contrast to the David ‘Black Wednesday’ Cameron and George Osborne prescriptions; demonstrating this awful pair truly learned nothing from past Tory mistakes. Their do nothing approach would have led us along the usual Conservative path of mass unemployment, repossessed homes, and sky-rocketing interest rates while crime soared uncontrollably. Total misery and mayhem for Britain.
So Brown and the Labour party have a very compelling story to tell during the election campaign. Throw in the NHS, minimum wage, tax credits, help for business and stimulating growth, nobody in the party should fear taking on the Tories.
However, I will say this. Should Brown duck out before the election, that would be the game changing event for me. I would not vote for the party. It would be incredibly cowardly to refuse to take your message to the electorate.
Brown has achieved a massive amount since taking over the reigns of power. He now has to ask the British people to back his policies in a vote of confidence.
14 You are Ed Balls and I claim a tenner.
I have no doubt that if Gordon Brown were to fall under a bus, a new leader would improve Labour’s ratings. Unfortunately for Labour, the replacement mechanisms are nowhere near that short and informal. What our host leaves out of the equation is that unless Gordon Brown goes very quietly, replacing him would be messy and divisive. By the time that anyone claimed the job, he or she would in all likelihood be so bespattered in political blood that any electoral advantage would be lost. This would matter less if the new Prime Minister had a while to establish a new relationship with the public. But as Carole King wisely said, it’s too late baby, it’s too late.
Ritchie. That comment just about confirms it - you are part of Brown Central in some form - if not Mr. Brown himself. My suspicions were raised by your instant response to the John Hutton interview story last week when you sought to take the sting out it.
It’s the words and phrasea that you use that are very telling.
It’s great to have you as as PB regular
17. Not sure Mike. Richie made a very gushing post about Ed Miliband’s leadership credentials not so long back (can’t easily find on my phone).
Very distinctive diction though.
14. Got to love the claim to having saved the economy at this stage. We currently have the situation where the Bank of England is printing money to pay the monthly salaries of public servants whilst the bankers walk off with billions in bonuses from the same printing press.
Doesnt sound like a saved economy to me….
There have been plenty of good reasons why removing Gordon is not a great idea, and in normal circumstances they are valid. But when you view the impending election through the mind of the electorate, then devastation of the PLP is a very real risk. Brown in a live TV debate will be toe-curlingly bad compared to Cameron and Clegg, and popularity will fall further.
The UK needs the Labour party to make a decent fist of being in opposition, but there could very well be little left of it to salvage.
14 Fascinating to read the last rites you have pronounced over the twitching, still warm corpse of the Labour party. Your party has always been misguided, but it is now a dishonest laughing stock. Massacre imminent mate!
On-topic, Brown’s numbers don’t look that bad. He’s well ahead of where he stood after the 10p debacle.
A problem for the ‘Fearless Five’, if they were serious, is that short of a resounding election win, which is hardly likely, they will never be able to prove that they didn’t harm Labour’s chances. Brown has achieved some movement in the polls and if he’s forced out, and Labour lose, the FF will forever be blamed for killing off ‘Gordon’s fightback’.
Mike poses a good question but I can’t help thinking that the whole premise of the article fails to see the wood from the trees.
We can all delve into the minutiae of the tables and try to infer little nuggets of intelligence but Politics is as much an art as a science. Stepping back a few paces allows you to appreciate the wider picture more clearly.
The fact is that the whole Country is just waiting for an election. There’s almost a hunger for it. People have had enough. For all the data-mining of the polls it’s easy to miss the obvious point that Labour is exhausted and have lost momentum. It’s over. And you don’t need a poll to confirm it. You can nearly smell it.
In fact, it’s so over, that they can’t even sort out their leader. When Lord Mandleson gives up, you know the fat lady is about to sing.
23 Yup. Big turnout coming. = Con win.
2 Excellent post, SSI. That’s exactly what has happened.
No, they won’t remove him now. No point. They had their chance(s) and they muffed it. It’s too late to do any good now and could backfire seriously.
Labour are going down to a big defeat.
24. And there’s that thing with hunger. The longer you wait, the more famished you become, so the more you eat.
Patrick’s right. The longer Brown waits, the bigger the turnout. The bigger the turnout, the less [as a proportion of total votes] Labour will harvest.
And if Brown leaves it ’til May 6th, his Local Government activist base in the Mets and districts-by-thirds will be decapitated too.
What isn’t widely appreciated is that when Tory MPs were wiped-out in 1997, the party rebuilt itself from it’s local Government base of ward councillors. It took time but there were enough activists left to keep the flame burning.
If Brown hangs on until May, then, not only will the PLP face decimation at Westminster but the eventual means of recovery in the Urban Unitaries will be wiped too.
Another reason to choose April 8th.
Just 40 minutes before the Poster of the Year election closes
It’s still running very tight with just six votes between the leading contenders.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/26/the-2009-pb-poster-of-the-year-the-final-round/
26…the thought of the NL gig being decimated makes one smile.the end of the biggest political stunt in British history. we can now return to those who are born to rule. the true Tories!
27 Note my late surge, Mikey! I’ve always been at my best when coming from behind.
There’s now just two votes between Richard Nabavi and Yellow Submarine.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/26/the-2009-pb-poster-of-the-year-the-final-round/
Good Morning Excited PotY Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. only 4 votes between Sub and Nab …. and the Jacobite block vote still to go down !!
Barely fifteen minutes for candidates to formulate their final bribes and inducements before Scotland’s finest centenarian presses that button.
31 Two votes …. Ah the prize !!
re 29 ” I’ve always been at my best when coming from behind.”
That’s not what they tell me Peter
Whether or not Yellow Submarine wins, Peter the Punter certainly found the value in the bet laying him at 4/6. Something to bear in mind when picking tipster of the year?
Down to one vote !!
Some bold assertions from bunnco and patrick that the voters are hungry and waiting for the chance to vote Conservative in what will be an increased turnout at the next GE .
Strangely all the available evidence is that that is simply bot true . In local council elections , the voters don’t exactly rush out to vote Conservative , in fact the opposite looks to have been the case with unenthusiastic Conservatives sitting at home not voting at all .
If a larger GE turnout was on the cards then Ipsos Mori should be picking that up in their Political Monitor Certainty to Vote figures but that is simply not the case .
Currently 51% are absolutely certain to vote and 66% 8-10 or higher certainty . How does that compare with Dec 2004 ? Then the figures were 52 and 66% respectively - no change whatsoever . In fact the April 2005 figures were respectively an average of 61 and 76% .
The evidence is clear that voters as a whole far from having a hunger to go out and vote are as apathetic about politics as thet were in 2004/2005 .
35 Oh don’t tell me you’ve sent your servants out to rig the vote again, Jack.
Dead heat…with 7 minutes to go!
Exciting…
Nab now leads by one !! …. Late Tory surge !!
Remember: Nick Palmer MP has tried to commit voting fraud!
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/27/does-this-sad-news-make-an-early-election-more-likely/#comment-1361198
37 PtP.
Tie again - 166 each !!
Is that ‘THE’ Bunco that everyone’s been raving about? It’s the first post of his that I’ve read but anyone who believes you can ignore the evidence because they can ’smell’ the mood of the nation get’s my vote!
YS now back in the lead
Sub 167 - Nab 166
Desperate, desperate stuff from the Scottish Tories. Their internal polling must be looking drim as hell.
‘Scots Tories pin hopes on late surge in support’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6967800.ece
Is Yellow Submarine also looking for a last minute surge?
46. typo - … grim as hell…
I shall be voting at 8.59 and 45 secs
Fingers crossed for YS!
Richard Nabavi has it by just one vote.
Mike you closed the poll early by fifteen seconds !!
Well done Richard. Will Roger and tim now leave the country in disgust?
Surely there should be a recount?
Roger, I suggest you go and read some of Bunnco’s posts and articles on the Norwich North by election and the Turnip Taliban re selection. You can see why he is such a widely read, credible and astute poster.
Remember, JackW, if you vote after lines have closed, your vote will not count but your call may still be charged for.
53 Too late. Mike’s already lost the register.
50. Mike, there is NO WAY you can allocate Nabavi the win by only one vote, using such a duff polling site. Give them a joint award.
Well, it’s just gone 9am, and RN seems to have won by a single vote!
Although Mr Nabavi thoroughly deserves the POTY award, I should add… congratulations! But a close recount is always good fun…
55 antifrank.
Congratulations to both Mr Nabavi and Mr Submarine. Both are great posters.
50 Great POTY contest this year, Richard wins 168-167, but never more than 10 votes between him and Yellow Sub, who was ahead throughout almost the entire final stage.
Also good to see the 3 other finalists all scoring >100 votes.
POTY, is this going to be a rerun of Winchester 1997. But is Yellow Submarine Gerry Malone or Mark O**en?
57 & 61 Stuart Dickson why don’t you just accept the result with good grace, rather than gripe because you don’t like the outcome? It’s just for fun after all.
Nabavi back in the lead. Justice I think. Despite Morus getting his party affiliation wrong (he’s a Tory Party member) I think it’s appropriate for a Tory poster to be POTY rather than an infrequent Lib Dem poster whose Lib Demmery is indistinguishable from Thatcherism.
re 51. I’m operating on Bedford Mean Time
Commiserations to Yellow Submarine… He’s a fantastic poster and he also deserved the POTYship.
The electoral register has been dispatched to Glenrothes for safe keeping.
Fiasco…
I think Mike should declare the POTY contest to be an honourable tie won by both leading contenders.
A problem about the leadership questions is that one can read them two ways: “Do you personally think X is a good leader?” (is he/would he make a good PM, does he consult with colleagues appropriately over decisions, etc.) and “Do you think he’s being successful in party terms?” (is the party ahead in the polls, is he the best choice to lead the party to victory). People presumably answer with a mixture of both in mind. Objectively Cameron has clearly doing been better in terms of party success in the opinion polls, and that has to colour the answers.
For that reason, insofar as secondary questions are useful, I think the ‘who do you think would be best PM?” is the more useful measure - otherwise one’s partly following the circular logic of a poll to see what people think of the polls.
BTW, bunnco tends to be unrealistically bearish in his view of Labour tunrout, as we found when there was a by-election on his home turf, and I don’t think the evidence supports an expectation of further major Labour losses in the local elections, but others (e.g. Sean Fear) can advise better. IIRC there’s one group of elections where the previous ones were before things started to go pear-shaped, but most of the rest compare to previous quite poor Labour results. That’s one reason why recent by-elections have shown so many Labour gains - we’ve been recovering previously lost ground.
66 Mike S.
You closed the poll early so I couldn’t effect a tie !!
Remember Mike, we can’t have too many elections on PB !!
64. EdP
Because there is just no way we can be sure of the outcome. Voter fraud is easy peasy lemon squeazy with those daft polling sites.
Mike should have requested that we vote by e-mail, with only those people who have an e-mail account registered with Mike being allowed to cast a vote. Excludes lurkers, but at least avoids cheating.
Oopps, missed the result! Manuy congratulations to Richard Nabavi - hard-fought wins are the best! Hard luck to Yellow Submarine, but as I just said I think you can claim an honourable tie - within the margin of errror, as we say here.
Congratulations to the winner, well deserved, even if I did vote for someone else.
Has Stuart mentioned this?
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/free-flights-by-cameron-on-plane-owned-by-tax-haven-firm-prompt-labour-call-for-answers-1.994728?
If he hasn’t I just have!
52. EdP. Not at all! Richard N is a very fine Tory poster and might have got my vote if it wasn’t that I think he’s shaded by Ted and David Hurdson.
It’s a pity that the PB block vote ruled out Tim or Stuart or Rod Crosby all three of who’s absence would lessen the vibrancy of the site possibly more than just another good Tory poster of which there are several.
Yet again a PB election results in mayhem with questions being asked of the Returning Officer and the shadowy figure of JackW lurking in the vicinity.
Will there be a rerun? Will PB’s favorite transvestite get a second opportunity to show her popularity? Will JackW be clapped in irons?
Nah. It was great fun. Congratulations to Richard, tough luck YS and thanks to all who took part with such great good humour.
71 At your age, Jack, you are doing extremely well to have any elections at all….
Ooh er, Missus!
Wow, that was a close-run thing. Seems like the Jacobites must have swung behind me at the last-minute, foiling Nick Palmer’s dastardly attempt to hatch a Lab-LD plot:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/27/does-this-sad-news-make-an-early-election-more-likely/#comment-1361198
Oh! If Stuart hasn’t mentioned this, then I will.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/dec/28/michael-white-politicians-decade-alex-salmond
Very well deserved, if I may say so.
When Easteross, (and all of the other Tories North of the Border) scramble over Hadrian’s Wall to escape independence, will we be calling it the, ‘Salmond Leap?’
For even more worrying for Labour is that the detailed data shows that 33% of declared Labour supporters say they are “satisfied” with Cameron’s performance.
I think your inverted commas very telling here, Mike. Many Labour supporters, asked this question would assume that satisfied, for them, would mean he is not as good for his own side! This sort of question somewhat analogous to the idea of all sorts voting in Open Selections for PPCs.
Partisanship is pretty widespread - and in my experience does go beyond the political nerds into the more general community.
Well done Richard - I voted for you.
36 by Mark Senior December 28th, 2009 at 8:51 am
I have been looking at the Sunday Times/Thrasher analysis of the local by-election results, from which they’re inferring national polling trends.
But before anyone else [Thanks 43.Roger] accuses me of being a Polling Denier I’m not sure that the links between local and national polling are entirely reliable.
1 Even in the safest Parliamentary seats [pop 80,000] there will be pockets of voters in a ward [c2,000 voters] that run contrary to the general run of that constituency. Inferring, for example, a Labour resurgence in a Tory MP’s seat on the basis that a District Council by-election was fought in a less well-off pocket isn’t going to be reliable. So, Thrasher’s polling base is non-representative… but albeit a rough and ready guide without the stabilisers from previous-voting intention etc.
2 Which brings me onto my second point. That there are often exceptionally local ‘pavement’ factors that do not translate to a national poll, which is why Thrasher et al have the LibDems on 28%.
The Yellow party are over-represented in Local Government because, where they have a presence, their supporters are more willing to travel to neighbouring constituencies/wards to campaign. Traditional Tories will be toasting crumpets by the fire whilst getting beaten 5 miles away. The LibDems particular will target and then focus limited resources on a feature by-election but they’re spread thinly to fight a General Election on a wider canvass.
3 Many people don’t see the connection between local politics and choosing a Government, which is more consequential. After all, every council empties the bins. A typical council by-election will poll 30-35% turnout. A General Election will be double that. It’s a different demographic. So, comparisons between local and national [especially on rarified local government by-elections] must be treated carefully.
4 Certainty to vote: We’re in the phoney war at the moment. But when the seminal nature of the forthcoming election is rammed down everyone’s throat during a short 17-working-day campaign 24 hours/day on BBC/Sky etc, that certainty to vote will rocket and that will favour the Tories except….
5 …I’m going to be looking very closely at the numbers of Postal Votes in Labour-supporting seats. There’s something going-on here. Didn’t OGH report something like 40% postal votes in Sunderland or something? I can’t rightly recall but in Norwich North, a below-the-radar postal vote campaign by Labour saved them from 4th-place ignominy.
So, Be wary about extrapolating national shares from local results and keep an eye on the postals. But to answer the ’smelling’ point, let’s say I have a nose for this sort of thing.
54. Eagle. Well my sense of smell must be different from his-all those cigs I used to smoke. In 1997 I thought the country were aching for an election in ‘97 to get rid of the smell of Thatcherism but now I don’t sense the same antagonism. Infact in 2005 thanks to Iraq there was more a feeling of resentment than now.
But maybe my sense of smell is why I’m the worst predictor on here!
OT. EdP. I’m finally going to see ‘Nine’ so I’ll let you know whether I’m as impressed as you were.
Mike - I think Stuart and Nick P are right. An honourable tie would be a fair reflection of the will of the people!
70. Nick Palmer MP December 28th, 2009 at 9:12 am
You’re right that I under-estimated the Labour vote in Norwich North, but then I was unaware of the postal vote campaign, which is why we need to look carefully at the ‘absent vote’ trends in Labour seats. I think you obliquely tipped-us-off to this during the NN campaign but it was only afterwards that we realised what you were saying.
But you make a further additional point which is worth expanding on. The Tories hold more Council Seats than Labour & LibDems combined. And some of those were exceptional wins. The Tories have almost hit a glass-ceiling in local politics. After all, there aren’t that many more Councils to win. So NPMP’s swing-back point is right. Another reason to district local-by-election->national position predictions.
OGH: “My strong view is that any change of Labour leader will have a beneficial impact on the party’s performance….”
Assuming Mike is right and it’s hard to argue otherwise, shouldn’t Brown do the honourable thing. After all, it has long been claimed that he would always put the party first. Even a very small swing (1%-2%) back to Labour from the Tories resulting from such a change of Leader, might well make the difference between a Tory Majority and NOM.
When, if at all, are any of the Gang of Five intending to confirm or deny this story? Surely Jack the Hat as its supposed leader must be under considerable pressure to say something.
Note to Mike: were Brown to stand down on New Year’s Eve (even now probably at least a 100/1 shot), Tim should be immediately named as POTY 2010 for his remarkable prescience.
“When, if at all, are any of the Gang of Five intending to confirm or deny this story? Surely Jack the Hat as its supposed leader must be under considerable pressure to say something.”
“Sources close to Straw” had their denial in the original report in The Mail. Denying it officially would presumably prompt the other papers to report The Mail’s unsubstantiated story, so you’d expect them to keep their mouths shut unless the other papers start running with the claim as well.
82 bunnco - isn’t the simple truth that as our man on the spot, you can’t be expected to be everywhere at the same time?
75/76 PtP.
You’re mighty chipper today. Win a few shiilings at Huntingdon yesterday ??
1. For every woman Harpie attracts, she will lose in men. You know, women have sons, as well as daughters, and might not be so keen with the ‘hobbling’ that she intends to do to the employment status of their sons.
90 Jack W - Yet another saucepan lid from you please.
86: thanks to bunnco for his friendly response to a note that more prickly contributors would have taken less well. I wasn’t very close to the Norwich effort, but from what I heard from those who were, the key to the Labour vote holding up better than expected was fairly good canvass records and a relentless focus on former supporters: it wasn’t just a question of the PV but of persuading them that it was worth coming out on the day. It was largely under the radar because people who’d previously canvassed as doubtful or anti were being largely ignored, so lots of people had the impression that Labour was barely bothering.
Although that’s not a viable GE-winning strategy on its own, it does show that a decent contact rate is valuable. One reason why results in some other places have been so bad is that the recorded contact rate before the incumbent died, e.g. in Crewe and Nantwich, was a big fat zero. I’ve met lots of voters in our worst by-elections who claimed they’d never met any canvasser, councillor or MP before. (I’d much rather the whips punished that sort of thing than whether we dissented on clause 11 of the White Fish Bill.)
92 Oops sorry Jack, wrong post, I was confusing myself there. Thank goodness PtP and I are combining for TOTY.
93. I live in, what is now a marginal constituency, and in that constituency i live in the most marginal council ward, a ward that splits between the Tories and Labour by less then fifty votes, whoever win. This seat is relentlessly canvassed and leafleted at every election (we have annual council elections), and throughout the year. Yet, we still come across people who claim that they have never received a leaflet or canvass from anyone.
82 Some retraction in your post here , bunnco . You have gone from saying that the whole country is champing at the bit to vote Conservative to making excuses why they don’t do so .
Yes I agree that as we get into a campaign the Mori absolutely certain to vote figure will increase ( as it did in 2005 to the extent that more said they would definitely vote than actually did ) but I think as do most post posters on here , you overestimate the importance of politics and who wins a GE to the majority of voters .
I would also argue that a low GE turnout would be of much greater benefit to the Conservatives than a high turnout .
Aargh!
I thought I’d won that bet! Congratulations to PtP from me - you’ve got my email address, just send me the details to send the cheque
Nevertheless, I’m claiming a moral victory. My argument was that it’s eminently possible for a non-Tory in general and Yellow Submarine in particular to win the PoTY competition, and the nailbitingly close nature of the result gives my side of the argument some validity
(And I do think that I got the value side of the bet: 6/4 on Yellow Submarine when it came down to a single vote looks like I got decent value on a 50:50 shot
)
83. Roger I think you are correct, I do not see or feel the same hatred there was in 1997. It is far from certain yet that the Tories have won , it is still all to play for and they may yet fail, Dave has been invisible for months now and his shadow team are pretty weak. Labour just need a few lucky breaks and it could swing back enough to foil the Tories.
Well done,Richard Nabavi. A worthy winner.
Well done Richard. It was always going to be a 2 horse race after the first 100 votes were registered.
But as the result IS so close - the proverbial whisker - I think, with with others, that there should be a dual award.
98 83
Hatred?
You live in the wrong circles to see hatred for Labour.. The Scots are of course dependent on state benefits as a nation and Roger is — well Roger.
Many of my neighbours are very angry about Labour, but also very angry about expenses. The Wintertons live nearby and are a terrible example of money grubbing MPs.. and also Conservatives.. so many potential Tory supporters may not vote (and we are not in the Wintertons’ constituency!). The number of potential tory voters they have p#ssed off is likely to be large - but not in their own constituencies!
Congratulations to Richard Nabavi for winning the POTYship by a short head. Commiserations and well done to Yellow Submarine for his gallant second place. And congratulations to the remaining three candidates for their bold efforts.
I voted for Richard Nabavi - and despite living in Birmingham, I only voted once! Who says a single vote makes no difference? Democracy is alive and well in PB land.
My antepost “tissue” on the contest correctly identified the dual forecast.
bunnco - isn’t the simple truth that as our man on the spot, you can’t be expected to be everywhere at the same time?
by Peter from Putney December 28th, 2009 at 9:47 am
Of course he can, he is the quantum poster of pb.com.
Morning all and congratulations to Richard, a very worthy winner and hard luck to YS who I had expected to win. To the 100+ souls who voted for me, I am indeed grateful and continue to be somewhat flabergasted at having reached the final and even more so at some of the very kind remarks written about me in recent days. Suitable bundles of fivers (Scottish ones of course)will be in the post.
Coldstone, were the day ever to come when Hadrian’s Wall becomes more than a symbolic boundary between our two great nations then I would not be travelling south but would be in the vanguard of the new Scottish Tory group storming Holyrood to keep the socialists at bay and I am certain Stuart Dickson and several other SNP PBers would be at my side. Tartan Tories rool ko!
46 Stuart my dear friend you must have put too much Glenmorangie in your coffee this morning to keep out the cold. I rather think the point of the article is that a late Cameron bouncette in Scotland could mean the difference between 4-6 Tory gains and 6-8 Tory gains in Scotland. As I keep saying it all comes down to where those extra 130,000 votes get placed in the “blue” box.
98 Malcolm - should the Tories fail to win the GE in 3-5 months time and win it very easily, then they are finished as a major political force.
Never again will conditions be as overwhelmingly favourable for them, not only in seeking to prevent Labour winning four times on the bounce, but against such an unpopular Labour leader and with the economy in ruins.
It should be a gimme for the Tories and so I believe it will prove.
90 It just so happens I did, Jack. Did I happen to see you there amongst the wheelchairs? Very brave of you to attend. Must send a shiver down the old spine when you see the green screens.
My Welsh National tip will be announced shortly.
Toodle Pip.
By the way - many congratulations to Richard for a worthy win, and to Yellow Submarine for an excellent showing. Either would have fully merited the title - to be honest, any of the finalists would have more than deserved it. An excellent field.
93. Very strange post by Nick Palmer, talking up the Labour effort in Norwich North. Let’s just remember that despite this heroic operation, Labour’s vote fell by 27% points to just 18% in a seat they previously held comfortably.
This was actually a worse result than in Crewe and Nantwich, where Labour’s vote fell by ‘only’ 18% points.
Yet apparently that was the ‘bad’ campaign and Norwich was a better one - so the implication here is that Labour’s underlying position has deteriorated dramatically since C&N. Presumably without this fiendishly effective below the radar campaign Labour’s vote would have fallen 30% points or more and they would have dropped to third or fourth.
Straw, Johnson, D Milliband and Darling. 4 people in search of a back bone? They simply lack the cojones to remove Brown. All this media talk is just Mandy stirring it up becuase he feels scorned.
Off topic. When did UK citizens stop being UK citizens and start being described first as EU citizens?
The BBC News have been running the headline about the chap on Chinese death row as a EU citizen all morning…..
Why is the British Broadcasting Corporation not stating that he is a UK citizen?
97 Andy, I’d forgotten all about it! You should have kept quiet.
We judged that pretty nicely though, so I guess we can both take some satisfaction in it.
Since it was so close, would you like to double or nothing on the Tipster Of The Year competition? You can have evens for or against The Twin Towers.
{Offer applies only to Andy Cooke.}
Scotsman prints labour propaganda trying to prove that Scotland should not be independent. Murphy has excelled himself here. Rather than us being £23B in debt over the last 30 years, the union dividend leaves us to share the £800B deficit of the UK and so be around £80B in debt. Murphy and other labour sychophants are so obsessed with hating the SNP they print rubbish like this and shoot themselves in the foot in the process.
Energy revenue ‘not enough to fund Scots independence’
The Scotland Office paper shows North Sea oil revenue would not have plugged the gap between spending and tax raised in Scotland, leaving the country with a massive £3.5 billion budget deficit.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Energy-revenue-39not-enough-to.5940432.jp
runnymede December 28th, 2009 at 10:20 am 93. “Very strange post by Nick Palmer, talking up the Labour effort in Norwich North.”
Nick’s just clutching at straws. Labour have almost died as a party in the South West and South East of England.
Remember that Labour will really only be operating in under 350 of the 650 seats at the GE. Trouble is that this time only 150 of those are safe ones.
101. madasafish , I live in an affluent area, I work every day with people who live across the UK , most in England in very expensive areas and all making big money. Not one of them has expressed any hatred for the government. Most people really do not care as they are well aware that we will exchange one lot of incompetent money grabbers for another. The Tories will not be any better than the current mob, anyone who lived through Thatcher or Heath should know that. The only difference between them is the small groups of people at the top who they spread the money amongst, and nowadays even they are very similar. For the rest it will eb more of the same, incompetence and us paying for it.
Congratulations to Richard, hard luck to Yellow Sub and thanks to everyone who voted for me. I said yesterday that I wouldn’t object to any of the other four finalists winning - all would make worthy POTYs.
One point to remember in considering the turnout for the GE is just how distrusted - or more - politicians are as a class. Yes, large parts of the electorate may have contempt for the government but the turnout will be determined by those who are currently likely not to vote. I don’t think I can recall a time when there’s been such a widespread mood of “don’t vote, it only encourages them”.
Activists (especially Tory ones), and the media are looking forward to what’s expected to be a ‘change’ election. That enthusiasm is far from universal.
105. Peter, I agree with you , however apart from on this site I do not see any great portents of this. In 1997 you could feel and sense it everywhere, it was all people talked about. That does not appear to be the case now, however Labour are so bad that the Tories surely cannot throw it away.
106. Peter, Morning to you, re Welsh National , The Tother One at 6-1 is my tip, mcCoy will keep him right if the course passes its 3rd inspection..
If I were Jack Straw I would grab a chance of being PM for a day or two.
The pension, the place in the history books and the chance to manage the post election bun fight to ensure the party survives and the ‘right’ person is crowned as leader. Straw the elder statesman in the Howard mode but with a PM’s pension and status.
And what downside is there?
Labour senior politicians know they are doomed with Brown, that a change at the top might look chaotic but would improve Labour’s chances. Harman would be acquiescent as would all the other hopefuls except Balls. They know it would be best for them to wait until after the deluge. Balls doesn’t as he knows his best chance is while Brown has some influence.
That is why Balls is under such attack by the Gang of Five. He is the last piece of grit in the wheels whether it is a change before or after the election.
117 Witan - that bit of grit in the hub cap always makes it sound like the wheel is coming off.
114 An excellent post David and an example of the reason why I voted for you as POTY
116 Malcolm
If racing goes ahead, the ground will be very heavy and ill have a great bearing on the outcome. I wouldn’t fancy The Tother one for that reason. I’m not sure he will stay on the dead ground, and in any case, the price has gone.
The Beau Bai has obvious claims but the price reflects them, so I am looking down the field a bit. My spies are at the track and should be providing me with local intelligence in due course. I’ll post what I hear.
111 Sadly Malcolm they under-estimate the debt you would have faced had Scotland become independent 30 years ago.
Just think of the lercy of your Scots PM Dr. JM Brown and his successor Douglas Alexander.
121 lergy = legacy
120 “My spies are at the track and should be providing me with local intelligence in due course. I’ll post what I hear.”
Peter - you mean you’re just about to pick the winner out of your trusty fedora.
113. Yes, Malcolm. The money has rotted their brains.
The Government’s borrowing in 2009 is off the scale, yet Brown made Darling do nothing in the PBR, trying to pretend that the gravy train can run forever.
Britain’s PSBR is not 12% as Darling says. 178 billion was a forecast made six months ago, since when revenues have fallen by GBP 50 billion, and spending on shoring up banks and otherwise has risen GBP 50 billion.
The PSBR is now 20% not 12%, and is deteriorating at about GBP 10 billion a month, or 1% of GDP near enough. Brown is hoping for an end to the recession to stop the haemorrhage of cash.
If the recession does not end but goes double dip, and more toxic bank debts inevitably appear, Britain’s 2010 PSBR could see 25/30% of GDP - double that of Greece.
It is a financial catastrophe, potentially adding GBP 20,000 to the average debt per household in a single year. 2009 has added GBP 12,000 per household as it is.
And yet the media are completely silent as if money didn’t exist or even matter. That is the skill of New Labour, to lie big so no one can bring themselves to mention it….apart from me for some reason!
Even The Economist is reporting Britain’s PSBR for 2009 at 14.5% and they are not known for rocking the government’s boat.
112. Yes, a bit of retrospective expectations management there (that said, I do recall some extravagant posts at the time predicting that Labour would finish fifth or even sixth).
For what it’s worth, my own index of by election performances gives NN as the worst result for Labour since they came to power. The higher the score, the worse the result. The top five are (excluding seats which they didn’t previously contest eg the Speakers’, or those they didn’t stand in eg H&H):
Norwich North (July 2009) - 11.18
Romsey (May 2000) - 10.14
Bromley & Chislehurst (June 2006) - 8.9
Brent East (Sept 2003) - 8.42
Hamilton South (Sept 1999) - 8.41
Some of these crept in ‘below the radar’ because of the placings. Hamilton, for example, is almost completely forgotten despite Labour’s share falling from over 65% to under 37% - figures quite close to those in Christchurch, widely regarded as one of the worst Tory by-elections of the 1992-7 parliament. Unlike Christchurch, Hamilton South didn’t develop into a two-horse race and Labour managed to squeak back in.
Congratulations, Richard. Hard luck, YS. In the end, I didn’t vote, because I found it impossible to choose between the finalists.
WRT the election, I can detect little enthusiasm for the Conservatives (even among Conservatives), but I do detect a big desire to throw the government out. And, that’s all that’s necessary.
111: Well, it was Sottish banks that decided to go on the biggest lending spree in recorded history and end up having to be bailed out by the UK taxpayer as a whole…
Sottish -> Scottish. Sigh.
109. TC. ‘…Why is the British Broadcasting Corporation not stating that he is a UK citizen?’
That’s very interesting TC. It must be because the EU has more clout in China than the UK. What’s interesting though is who suggested that the BBC did this as it’s clearly aimed at helping the condemned man?
Anyway it shows the benefit of being in a wider union so mor power to whoever’s elbow.
123 How dare you!
I use the Trilby for big race days.
126 Indeed. That in fact is dangerous in of itself for Labour as it could mean tactical voting against them in specific seats as opposed to mirror image Tory surge of Labour in 1997 which in fact protected many Tory MPs from better placed opponents eg Heathcoat-Amory in Wells.
127. Phil, that old chestnut has been well roasted on here many times, they may have had Scotland in the names but that was about it , they were international banks first and UK banks second, very little Scottish in them and all the decisions made in London.
113: malcolmG @ 10:28
“I work every day with people who live across the UK , most in England in very expensive areas and all making big money. Not one of them has expressed any hatred for the government.”
As Madasafish said, “You live in the wrong circles to see the hatred for Labour”. The very wealthy will retain, and increase, their wealth under any government. So it really doesn’t matter to them who gets in.
Come down a few pegs to those that have been, are being and will be stuffed by HMG’s fiscal incontinence and you’ll find a different attitude.
83. Roger
“Infact in 2005 thanks to Iraq there was more a feeling of resentment than now.”
With respect Roger you move in more rarified circles than the voters who will actually decide the election.
And the Guardian readers of 2005 are different to the Sun readers of 2010.
Visit the lower middle class and WWC areas in the midlands and north and you wont have trouble finding resentment.
I would agree that there is none of the enthusiasm for change that there was in 1997 but with the state the economy is in and the way the political class is discredited that is hardly surprising.
132 They were registered as Scottish (not English & Welsh) companies.
Just have a Labour leadership election for the new leader before the next election,have it soon.Gordon would then be seen as a caretaker for the new person.
Of course a lot of Labour people approve of Cameron for negative reasons.He has been branded a secret nasty by Jackie Ashley in today’s Guardian for the way he treats his staff,makes interesting reading.Cameron’s toff credentials and millionaire status are ripe election material.He also is suspect in debates and will flap and go red in the face. Edward Milliband for PM after the next election.
120. Peter, Yes taking a chance on him getting the distance but think McCoy on board will be a big help, Operation Houdini and Iris de Balme would be my other choices, though as you say Le Beau bai looks good but price i stoo short now.
132? I thought the entire board of RBS was Scottish. Nationality though means nothing eg Northern Rock. This it is all Scotland’s fault or no it was all England’s is rather pathetic really. People from throughout the UK showed they were capable of poor judgement regardless of origin.
Do you honestly think that people will vote Labour if they change leader?
Or that us women would vote for Harpy?
Are you mad?
LABOUR, not just Brown have ruined the country. They all said he would be brilliant as PM.
Balls, Cooper,Milliband bros,Mandelson,Darling,Johnson,Harpy,
Jowell,the whole bloody lot of them are useless,spiteful,lying,
spinning crap!
Why oh why are the British people going to re elect this shower?
You REALLY DO underestimate the raging anger out here for the sheer bollocks Labour have made of the UK, borrowing/printing, best placed,first out rubbish.Add to that failures in education,
immigration control,crime,unemployment,troop support,social services,hospitals,illegal wars and still you think we will re elect them?
Give us women some credit.Harpy is a freak.A typical Labour freak at that.
Trust me Labour WILL be trounced at the election the polls are not a reflection on what is felt out here.
And as a public sector worker who has had to try to do my job with the imbeciles in charge at the top and the scumbag union leaders who have sucked up to Labour while thousands of us have been shafted I can assure you Labour does NOT have our support!So if any Labour troll is reading this WE WILL MAKE SURE YOU ARE ALL FIRED!
The poor suckers like Balls believe we will support them through thick & thin, well you are thick and our workforce is thinner.
You have NO CHANCE.
Going by the views of people I have spoken to the Tories will get around 52% come the election.Labour will be third or fourth.Even that is too good for them.
At the last true poll(local & EU elections)Labour did what exactly?
They will be lucky to get 15-17%.
132. But why did Brown put them into public ownership? Now we have to underwrite all their liabilities. They should have been sold on to the highest bidder, and kept out of public ownership. The size of the debts are unknowable until the financial instruments market is unwound. That could take years and the losses be valued in trillions.
Even the losses we know about and are already subsidising, are driving British government debt far higher than is being admitted to.
This is the phony era before the real problems are got to grips with. Everything is in denial, hidden away, and showered with ever larger doses of hope that things might not be as bad as they really are.
That’s the future. But even the present situation is being denied, and misrepresented in case it will go away.
135. Sean , big deal , lots of companies are registered in tax havens, overseas etc , the point is they were run from London under UK jurisdiction. You can make excuses but you cannot hide that fact, trying to make out that they were run from Scotland and a few Scottish people caused the bankrupting of Britain is extremely childish and ignores all the facts. The rot was concentrated in London and included the government, a few of who are Scottish as well so you can say it was a Scottish government wot done it Guv as well.
139 Has Wayne had a sex change ?
126. Sean Fear
“WRT the election, I can detect little enthusiasm for the Conservatives (even among Conservatives), but I do detect a big desire to throw the government out. And, that’s all that’s necessary.”
Agreed and this is what makes the talk of Cameron ‘not sealing the deal’ misplaced. Labour have sealed the deal.
I think this means though that the LibDems will do better than expected against both Conservatives and Labour.
132: It was (half) a joke, with a serious core point: you can’t reasonably pick and choose which bits of the state’s liabilities you get to keep and which bits you don’t.
137 Yes, two intresting ones there although at the prices I would prefer Iris de Balme. Houdini is a bit of a dodgy jumper, so the big field won’t suit.
Still waiting to hear from the track.
141. I think Sean’s point is that had Scotland been independent, then by virtue of where the banks are registered it would have been Scotland’s mess to sort out.
Anyway, I’ve got stuff to do. Have a pleasant day, all.
Many thanks to all who voted for me, and for the kind words and congratulations. As I said above, I think we should declare this one a draw!
On topic, I’m don’t think that Mike has it right when he says any change of Labour leader will have a beneficial impact on the party’s performance. There are several aspects to this:
1) Whilst Brown was a disastrous choice, and is undoubtedly a poor and unpopular leader, how much of that is now just Labour’s unpopularity being projected on to him? In particular, are Labour supporters who express disenchantment with Brown actually rationalising their true feeling, which is disillusionment with the direction the party has taken?
2) Even if we accept that much of Brown’s unpopularity is because of his personality and character flaws, a quick survey of the alternatives doesn’t inspire confidence that any one of them would do much better. They all have disadvantages of their own, which we have rehearsed many times. Many left-wing commentators and Labour supporters may agree that they don’t like Brown, but they don’t agree on who should replace him - for the simple reason that there is no outstanding candidate.
3) The process of replacing Brown would be highly destabilising, and unpredictable in its outcome.
4) The clincher, for me, is the question of policy direction. If Brown is replaced by one of the (rather mediocre) alternatives, what will the message to the voting public be? Labour has two arguments: ‘Keep out the evil Tories’, and ‘Trust us to steer the country out of the recession’. By ditching Brown - not so long ago hailed as saviour of the economy by his colleagues, at a time which is ‘no time for a novice’ - they immediately trash the second of those arguments. What do they do then - accept that Osborne had it right, and that Brown’s stewardship of the economy has been a disaster? Do a U-turn on all the fudging of the PBR, which (after all) was delivered by Darling and extravagantly praised by his colleagues? Or do they instead ditch Brown but keep all his approach of denying reality? Either way, it just doesn’t look to me like an election-winning strategy.
Replacing Brown would (quite rightly) be interpreted by the electorate as panic. It would expose all the splits amongst senior ministers on policy, which are already damaging the party.
Given all of this, I cannot see replacing Brown as being a positive; it looks to me more likely to make the defeat even bigger.
138. Punter , Exactly what I was saying , however not what is posted here on a regular basis. Many people on here like to try and make out that it was a few Scottish people that caused all the trouble, pretty pathetic in my opinion.
Well done richard - although you were lucky i wasnt on the ballot!!
141 malcolmG = tee hee hee
142 - 139 might be AVE IT NORTH
141
Malcolm
So the big HO built at Gogarburn (where I used to fish as a lad) was not the HQ of RBS.?
Read this then: http://www.edinburgharchitecture.co.uk/rbs.htm
144. Phil, agree, the UK failed miserably, people using the Brown mantra of “It started in the US” or as many people do on here , “It started in Scotland”, is silly.
Apologies to YS.
I was originally going to vote for you but when I saw David Herdson trailing in a poor third place I gave him my vote instead.
Perhaps we should have had a STV election?
I blame scotland
148, when Scotland looked nice the SNP leader was happy to state he was part of an arc of prosperity. The fact is the failed banks (the big ones) are Scottish, as are the failed politicians. If they’d been English would the SNP have said nothing?
109 - TC Since 1981, there is no such thing as a UK Citizen, just a British Citizen. You might also be a British subject as well as a British Citizen but you would have to have been born in Ireland!
Also according to Wikipedia:
“The only circumstance where a person may be both a British subject and British citizen simultaneously is a case where a British subject connected with Ireland (s. 31 of the 1981 Act) acquires British citizenship by naturalisation or registration. In this case only, British subject status is not lost upon acquiring British citizenship.
The status of British subject cannot now be transmitted by descent, and will become extinct when all existing British subjects are dead.”
Didn’t know that. Good question for a pub quiz.
146. David , as ever you show your ignorance of Scotland and politics in general. If my granny had had test1cles she would have been my grandfather is the equivalent of what you just said, ie rubbish.
Scotland is not independent and if it had been who knows what fiscal controls would have been in place, more likely the ones that Spain and Canada have for instance.
Roger, I note your view and alas acknowledge that we are sliding into a Eurostate. The EU has little clout with China. Cathy Ashton.
154. Yes it’s the classic pattern - take credit for any upside but blame the downside on someone else. The kind of behaviour you see among second-rate middle managers in any large organisation (who probably have personalised number plates as well).
147 I agree with all of that - but it may not be how Labour insiders see it. They may just see it as “replace the leader, get a bounce in the polls so we get a hung Parliament, do a deal with the Lib Dems.”
I think that any poll bounce would just melt away during an election campaign, as peoples’ underlying views of the government reasserted themselves - but they may not see it that way.
However, I can’t see Brown being ousted now, unless he agrees to go. A bloody and divisive campaign to force him out would be utterly damaging for Labour.
149 Ave it - I think it was the switch from Ave it 09 that confused the voters, otherwise you would have been a shoo-in.
This whole thing of Brown going before the election is going to cause mayhem.
1: if Brown is going to stay on a PM until the election and a new leader put in place before that, that effectively means 2 unelected PM’s running the place at the same time and taking charge of policy….unacceptable. You cannot have 2 leaders, its either resign and call an election immediately or stay and fight it yourself.
2 : The rats in a sack fight for the labour leadership will have all the signs of a who wants to drink the poison and go out and fight on Brown and Labour’s record. Would you want to? The ensuing bitterness and lethal backstabbing would just cause meltdown in the election run up.
3 : The public may be so pissed off at not getting a chance to get rid of Brown themselves, they may vote for the Tories even more because of the Labour arrogance and disrespect to the public.
4 : Brown will not go quietly, it would be just too humiliating for him. He’s firebomb labour himself if they tried to force him out by calling the election immediately.
150. MAD, you got your tartan underpants on again. Yes the call centre is at Gogarburn, and they keep a few flash offices there, however as you well know despite your hatred for all things Scottish , most of the decisions were made in London for London interests.
But, even more likely, the sort of controls that Ireland and Iceland had in place.
140 Tapestry
“They should have been sold on to the highest bidder, and kept out of public ownership.”
“The size of the debts are unknowable until the financial instruments market is unwound.”
Surely you realise that those two statements are mutually exclusive?
By the way, thanks for quoting your source about the banning of writing in English after the Norman Conquest. It is nothing I have ever heard before, and indeed cannot believe it is the sort of thing that a mediaeval government would try to do. I can only suggest that Melvyn Bragg is not exactly an impeachable source and you should look for some others. It is certainly true that official texts switched to Latin, and later French, in a culture where most things had been written in the vernacular, which is one of the things that has led to the evolution of English in the way it has (the other is the effect of Old Norse in the 200 years before the Conquest).
160
its an attempt by me to broaden my appeal! (Its not working well in scotland 
)
165, rebrand as Ave It The Noo?
154. You will have seen despite labour comments that Ireland and Iceland are still doing better than the basket case that is the UK, out of recession quicker and higher GDP than UK.
147 Richard, you make a very convincing case. However, the truth is that most voters act on gut feel and not on a detailed consideration of the alternatives - is it not the case that around 3 in 4 voters are incapable of naming the Chancellor of the Exchequer?
I suspect that right now their very strong “gut feel” is that they wish to be rid of Brown and are not greatly fussed over who should succeed him, knowing little or nothing about the candidates.
167 I think the general view among economists is that both countries have had far deeper recessions than the UK has had.
158, Runnynose trying to join the grownups by pretending to be TIM, my my the envy of the lower classes knows no bounds. Get a job and you might be able to buy a personalised number plate for your large BMW.
“But, even more likely, the sort of controls that Ireland and Iceland had in place.”
Indeed, after all why would more stringent controls be needed when Scottish bankers were believed to be the best in the world.
And wasn’t the man who made the UK banking regulation a certain Gordon Brown of Kirkcaldy?
165. Ave It , I don’t know I would like to peel you, with a very sharp knife too.
166. MD , nice one , I might even vote for him if he did.
169. And both are coming out of them and are still in better shape than the UK.
Re dislike of the current government - I make a point of reading the comments under news articles and if we take the Times as a reasonably neutral source, they are almost 99% negative whenever a story about HMG or Gordon is run.
Even when it’s a ‘positive’ story - opprobrium is heaped on it as either more fiscal incontinence/hypocrisy/cheap stunt/will never be implemented.
Special vitriol is reserved for Gordon.
If any of this is translated into the ballot box - it will be bloody.
They seem to despise Labour in a way I don’t recall about Major [that was sleaze/weakness/infighting]. Now its the irresponsible spending of money we don’t have, divisive immigration, snooping nanny state and of course the wrecked economy that seems to have really annoyed people at a fundamental level in the same way expenses did.
171. Richard, Brown is like Madasafish and Morris Dancer, claim to be Scots but hate Scotland. Brown will remain in England when he is deposed.
147 Saved me having to write a post - though you said it better.
Richie Rich’s post way upstream lays out clearly the only argument Labour can campaign on, that Gordon “Saviour of the World/Banks” Brown, is the only safe choice in these uncertain times. Gordon can be trusted to protect the recovery, to protect services from savage cuts, invest for growth and reduce debt by taxing the rich.
The alternative is Dangerous Dave and his toffish mates who will slash services, cut public servant numbers and pay, privatise and use the harsh tactics Mrs Thatcher did in 1980. They’ll tax the many and cut taxes for the few, discriminate against single parents and unmarried couples.
Get rid of Brown and how do you sell the message of safety and security? What does Labour have to offer then? the change that Mandelson wants the campaign to be about? an inchoate mix of messages and policies with no strong theme around them.
164. John L. Re banks. Not necessarily. John Redwood has been writing for months that the crisis could have been handled differently, much more done quietly out of the public eye enabling the Northern Rock, RBS and others to have the time to do deals. The way the announcements were made ensured collapse of markets making government intervention essential. It need not have been thus. See John Redwood’s Diary.
Bragg’s point was that English survived as lively spoken common language during its written ban, as the later writings of Chaucer demonstrate. I read Bragg’s book years ago now and am not at home to grab it and quote the relevant passages. I could normally call my brother in law who is a Professor in Mediaeval History at St Andrews, but he’s in South America ‘visiting’ the ‘Incas’.
166
malcolmG wants to vote for me really!
The problem with geting rid of brown is who replaces him.
1 : Straw : Universally disliked and his record in Justice and Home office will just kill him at the election.
2 : Johnson …his record at Home office is abysmal and underwhelming, he would be chewed up and spat out. He’d melt under the immigration issue, the union thing would be suicide for labour at this point with unions ripping the country apart.
3 : David M ..well the bananaman thing and sucking up to Europe would be his downfall.
4 : Ed M …really blatantly unknown, underwhelming too young and frankly not known enough.
5 : Harman : Labour electoral suicide.
6 : Balls …i’d piss myself laughing
7 : Burnham …i’d doubley piss myself.
8 : Cruddas … another one not well known enough.
9 : Darling ….the badger, no way, is not PM material, he’s a secondary man. Chancellors never make good pm’s, the public should remember that.
ditto if they get rid of brown now, they are even deader in the water.
176, I have never claimed to be Scottish, and I don’t hate Scotland. I just give short shrift to whinging nationalists.
178 English never actually died out as a written language (although it had none of the prestige of Latin or French under the
early Plantagenets). Records and chronicles were still kept in English (eg Magna Carta was published in English, as well as Latin and Norman French).
176 no he’s yours have him back!!!
180. Which leaves the “sensible” Mr. Benn…
Congratulations to Richard Nabavi who I voted for.
Although I have been dissatisfied with his performance since his election.
170 - Its not a question of money M4LC1, if you want to look a fool a clowns outfit and a bottle of Blue Nun will do just as well as the number plate.
169. The point about Iceland and Ireland is that one is in the euro and cannot regain competitiveness except by cutting wages (Ireland), while Iceland was able to recover by its exchange rate falling, a rise in inflation, and a fast recovery resulted.
Ireland has the added disadvantage that Sterling, the currency of its largest trading partner and export market is falling, and it has been squeezed out that way as well.
If the Euro was good for Ireland in the last ten years (causing an unstoppable property boom), it is debatable whether the Euro is in Ireland’s interests looking ahead.
The problem in the UK is that government is hiding its debts, and the shock once people take on board how big they really are will be immense.
Cook = Cameron!!!!
184 : Benn, the guy who came 4th in a labour election and only the environment secretary. Still too lightweight. Would be better if he took the leadership after Brown loses the election, could be good for Labour with him in 5 years opposition.
132. I agree Malcolm-as I have stated MANY times before, your average morris dancer will NEVER accept that his nation is to blame for ANYTHING!
Its all down to these bloody foreigners!
178/182 I did point out last night that texts continued to be written in English in the three hundred years after the Conquest that Tapestry claims a “ban” was in force. I still don’t believe Bragg, and would like to know what his sources are.
Tapestry, yes you are probably right that something better could have been done to the banks if it had been handled correctly behind the scenes. I am afraid I don’t read John Redwood as often as I should, I admit I find his blog a little dry for my taste. But I seriously doubt they could have been sold wholesale, and the state would have had to retain a substantial “bad” portion. The debts being large and essentially unknowable would have meant the discount required by any commercial buyer would have been substantial, and there still would have had to be a state guarantee. It would seem far more sensible for the sate, with its much greater resources, to take on that level of risk. Of course, had the banks in some way have been allowed to go bust, while protecting their creditors and maintaining confidence, then their shareholders would have lost their shirts and maybe some of the bankers too - which is what is supposed to happen when a business fails in a capitalist system. Instead we seem to have feather-bedded the bankers. If bankers expect to be paid the reward for success, they should expect the reward for failure to be proportionate and opposite.
F1 rumour:
Joe Saward has suggested USF1 might be considering bringing Schumacher (Ralf) back into the sport.
If true (and even if not), I eagerly anticipate the next Sniff Petrol Schumacher captions
186. Tapestry, and it proves the point that the SNP make, ie the UK is mismanaged and Scotland has no say in the matter. It would be better if we could make our own mistakes and squander our own money rather than have someone in London doing it for us. At the very least it would mean we bought what we wanted and not what we were told we wanted, and the politicians in Scotland would be on the hook.
188. Has a look of John Major about him, though, doesn’t he?
185 tim - On a historical note; back in the late 50s, ‘the chaps’ preferred drink was gin and tonic but it had to be Gordons’ or Booths’ and the tonic had to be Schweppes.
So far,so good.
When they were out with their goombahs and really trying to impress, they would order either Blue Nun or Mateus Rose (pronounced Matturze).
172 ‘I would like to peel you, with a very sharp knife too.’
Well done malcolmG; a new low point for pb.com.
193. Rod, He is a real wet leak, hopefully he has reached his level of incompetence.
176
Malcolm
If you had a sense of humour and stopped flying off at every slight on Scots, I would stop posting.
But frankly Malcolm baiting is great sport.
I don’t hate Scots or Scotland: my wife is Scots, my bother lives in Scotland and I revisit occasionally.
If you had claimed BOS was not Scottish you could be believed but claiming RBS was not makes you appear what you are: a chippy unreasonable Scots Nit…And whilst you are and act like one (thousands on posts on imagined slights).. expect more.
Anyone know if we’ve had our last poll of the decade?
Interesting result in the POTY elections.
I think, given the closeness of the outcome, the only correct option is for the POTYship to revert to the present holder of the title, until and unless these doubts and ambiguities are clarified.
195. EdP, Nice to see your humour bypass is still in place, keep your nose out of other peoples posts when you cannot even read what is in them. Don’t Ave It and I were having a perfectly good conversation, try reading more than one comment so that you have a clue as to what is going on.
re 198. There is an outstanding poll from YouGov for the Telegraph.
195
i’m not scared!
200
malcolmG - the recruiting sergeant for the unionists.
190 I’ve never heard of such a ban.
Old and Middle English was doubtless considered an uncouth tongue, by the highest nobility and churchmen, and not really worthy to be a language of literature.
But, it would have been widely spoken by ordinary clergy, merchants, and even lesser gentry, many of them literate people who needed to keep records.
While we’re discussing Scotland & suchlike, can we forego mentions of “north of Hadrian’s Wall”? It runs entirely in England, and there is a substantial portion of English territory north of it. Plato, for example, is from North of the Wall and I doubt she would like to be thought of as a Scot. Just a pedantic point really (or maybe not, as some posters on here would appear to have ceded Northumberland and a significant portion of Cumbria to Scotland).
201. Thank-you
197. Mad, That is the problem I do have a sense of humour and I don’t often get laughs on here I can assure you, Don’t Ave It excluded from that and maybe a few others. You among many others take yourself too seriously and only see humour where you want to.
200 There’s no problem with my sense of humour, Mr Nit. Shouldn’t you be outside giving the Rover a quick buff?
204. Up pops Witless and adds value to the subject.
206. John, It is the real boundary, time we recovered our stolen ground , sure the people would be dancing in the streets if they were rescued by Scotland.
208
Mad, That is the problem I do have a sense of humour
ROFL.
206
Indeed!
209. EdP, the dog would not appreciate that at all, and it is a bit rude to suggest such a thing. late Friday evening you expect those sort of things to be posted when people have taken too much “Singing Ginger”, or have you just started early.
177-cut public servant numbers and pay
Hope so. Public “servant”. You mean people who have been sucking at the teat of other people’s money for far too long?
211 Hadrian built his wall across the narrowest part of the land - simply good tactics.
Unfortunately I must forgo any more humour , have to purchase a new kitchen before VAT goes back up. Have fun
198 Surely, just as the 21st Century started on 1 January 2001, the next decade doesn’t start until1 January 2011. So we have 369 days of polling still to go this decade.
218. Pedant.
Don’t you realise that in a few days we shall be leaving the Noughties forever???
Enjoy them while you can..!
What do we call the next decade …the tensies, the tennies, the tenners. What?
217 malcolmG = Scotlands answer to Alan Partridge.
Its the last year end EVER when there will be a labour government!
23/ 25 Agree entirely.
I have my popcorn and beer ready (and will be booking the day after election off work to fully “savour” their defeat)
219 RodCrosby
“Don’t you realise that in a few days we shall be leaving the Noughties forever???”
Only for those of you don’t intend to live into the next century! I’m planning on following my role model Jack W.
220. I think it’s the teenies.
200. malcolmG: EdP, Nice to see your humour bypass is still in place
Irony alert.
No-one has said that the Scots are responsible for the wole of the financial mess. That would be silly.
What I have said — and hold to — is that RBS was a Scottish company, headquartered in Scotland with a completely Scottish board. The RBS board was WHOLLY responsible for the god-awful takeover bid of ABN Ambro, which is one of the things that holed RBS irretreviably below the water-line.
Fred and his board superintended the WORST takeover deal in history.
If I was a Scottish Nationalist — I would want to see the boards of these banks called to account. They have done tremedous damage to Scotland. Why?
Because Scotland had an iconic brand — Scottish prudence and probity aided and abetted the Scottish financial sector enormously.
The real damage may not be the nationalisation of the banks themselves (bad though that is). The real damage is the damage to the brand. As the Tories in Sotland have found — once your brand is contaminated, it takes a long time to recover.
211/216 malcolmG, you are quite wrong there. The Anglo-Saxon Kingdom of Northumbria extended to the Forth, and Edinburgh may be named after Edwin of Northumbria. The portion north of the Tweed was only ceded in 1018. Why do you think the people of Lothian speak Scots and not a Cumbric (Welsh) or Pictish dialect?
What do we call the next decade …the tensies, the tennies, the tenners. What?
by lauranceallen December 28th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
The Cammies?
MalcolmG said at 11:24, “You will have seen despite labour comments that Ireland and Iceland are still doing better than the basket case that is the UK, out of recession quicker and higher GDP than UK.”
He is gone now so I can’t ask him, but in that post is he really saying that Ireland and Iceland have a higher GDP than the UK?
216 – Plato, I think the Antonine Wall built by Emperor Antonious Pius c142 AD is at a far narrower point than Hadrian’s Wall.
Now if England claimed back everything south of it, then that really would upset the Nits.
*BETTING POST - Chepstow Goes Ahead!*
Welsh Grand National - 2.10pm.
And we have news from the track…..it’s heavy, seriously heavy, so eliminate all the doubtful stayers, including The Tother One, Gone To Lunch and Kornati Kid. Silver By Nature and The Beau Bai have clear claims - the latter will love conditions - but the prices are too short. I liked both of Malcolm G’s choices, Iris De Balme and Operation Houdini, but the former is now a non-runner and the latter is a sketchy jumper, so I am going with two others - half a point each way on Halcon Genelardais [10/1] and Coe [14/1]. The former is the solid choice and the latter is an improving sort who should go well if his jumping holds up under pressure.
In other races, I can also recommend….:
1.00 Superforman, 1pt win at 4/1, and 1/2 pt ew Amble Forge 12/1
And at Leicester….
1.25 Orana Conti is great ew value at 5/1, but this is virtually a match with Blossom King, which was edging out to 3s when I looked just now. Back both?
2.30 Noun De La Thinte is far too short at 9/4. My choice against the favorite is Shake The Barley, ew at 7/1.
Good luck everybody!
220. The Tweenies, because they’re in-between the Noughties and the Twenties.
simples!
198. I doubt it - there will probably be a few during the general election campaign
The nightmare scenario. Richard Nabavi wins but without a mandate for radical change. Plus he’ll be in hock to his extremist wing.
Unless the useless 5 wrench the keys to number 10 from Browns dying hands, he ain’t going anywhere.
The next part of brown’s master-plan is the Afghan conference at the end of January, where many £millions will be wasted flying in “world leader” so Gordo can “save the world” again like he did at the G20 and Copenhagen (at least that’s what he thinks).
The facts, that only the Yanks can make any difference in Afghanistan or that the £millions Brown’s is p1ssing up the wall on the event, just so he can have some pretty pictures taken, would be better spent on equipment for the boys in the field, don’t matter.
The bunker’s plan is a bounce off “Brown, saviour of the Afghans” then start the campaign.
227 In fact, a free-tip to Alex Salmond!
I’d have thought the sensible thing for Alex to do was to say the Scottish Gov’t is going to hold an inquiry into the collapse of these banks and see if any criminal charges can be brought against the boards.
Remember — as the Rock faced meltdown in 2007 — Fred was telling RBS shareholders that RBS had little subprime exposure. I’d have thought that shareholders had an excellent case for being misled in the rights issue.
A proper inquiry — citing the damage to Scotland and its image — would enable the Nationalists to outflank Gordon (admittedly not difficult) and regain the initiative — “We want to restore the reputation of the Scottish financial sector”, etc.
It would — I’d bet — be enormously popular.
237
Problem is that RBS in reality is bust. I mean big style.. And exposing that would damage the UK as a country (not that anyone with half a brain does not realise it..)
In the spirit of the festive season, a link for tim.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Sky-News-Archive/Article/20080641313925
Old Holborn FPT that Speaker’s convention about by election timings you mentioned was never brought into force.
*Betting Post - Stop Press*
Just had a message from mole at Leicester. Get on Keki Buku in the 3.35 - value at 3s or better.
My Congratulations to Richard who is a worthy winner. I think the whole contest has been dominated by the number of entirely deserving people who could quite reasonably have been on the long list, the short list and the winner and that weren’t.
On Topic. I’m sticking to my view that any new Leader bounce ( a) has to be judged against the Chaos of a coup (b) public revulsion at being taken as fools (c) and the fundamentals of the situation - the economy (d )
I just don’t see how the equation A - B,C and D = a positive value.
The least worst opinion is cast around for a change candidate that could score in the debates which means Harman ( a woman ), E Milliband ( youth ) or Cruddas ( soft left/policy change )
If I have time later I will pen an abusive post about Roger but I’m off for a Norwegian Yulebord.
My regards to everyone and particulalry Richard N this afternoon.
Amusing press release from Hills…
BOOKMAKERS William Hill are renowned for accepting bets on virtually any subject under the sun.
But even they were shocked to receive a request from a potential customer asking to place a bet that he could ‘amputate by electric chainsaw my left leg, just above the knee’
‘This was the most outrageous bet request we received during 2009, a year in which we were asked for more bets than ever before which we were just not prepared to entertain’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
‘In this instance I told the punter concerned - an internet client whose initials are J.W.- that had we accepted his request neither we nor he would have had a leg to stand on!’ added Sharpe.
Other bets which Hills turned down flat included - ‘Swine flu to wipe out Glasgow’; ‘Michael Shumacher to die in a Grand Prix in 2010′. ‘Gordon Brown to commit suicide’, ‘Myself to be involved in a major disaster’, ‘That World War III will break out with Pakistan, Russia and China the main enemies’, bets about Jade Goody’s illness and Michael Jackson’s death, and, bizarrely, ‘that I will be quarantined during a trip to Singapore and Thailand.’
Hills also receive regular requests for bets that high profile politicians and public figures will be assassinated; that major natural disasters will take place and that various calamities will befall different celebrities. ‘All of these are politely declined’ said Sharpe.
However, over the Christmas period, Hills did pay out on unusual bets to a man who lost 5 stone in weight and won £1000; and a grandfather who, eight years ago, backed his grandson to grow up to play for a Premiership club and collected £3400 when he made his Everton debut. During 2009, they also offered 500/1 that Wayne and Colleen Rooney’s first born will win an England football cap, paid out to punters who bet that banker Sir Fred Goodwin would take a cut to his pension pot, and bet that Spotted Dick would be the next type of dessert aimed at Peter Mandelson after he was targeted by a protestor who threw green custard at him.
In June, Hills also paid out £5000 to lung cancer sufferer Jon Matthews from Milton Keynes, who bet that he would live longer than his Specialist predicted.
‘We are always happy to take bets on unexpected propositions - provided we consider them to be legal, decent, honest and truthful’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
242,well done to you YS,you would also have been a worthy winner.
And another one. Kavanagh in the Sun tipped Balls today.
WITH GORDON BROWN reportedly coming under pressure to stand down as Labour leader and with a by-election now set to take place before the General Election, William Hill have cut the odds about Brown ceasing to be leader before the Election, from 6/4 to 5/4.
‘We have seen plenty of support for Brwon to be out of office before the General Election, and although he is still odds on at 4/7 to remain in place, there is little backing for that option’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
LONG TIME favourite to succeed Gordon Brown as Labour leader, Alan Johnson’s odds have drifted out from 5/4 to 3/1 William Hill as political punters have been backing the two Miliband brothers to take the Party’s top job, with David and Ed both now quoted as 4/1 joint second favourites.
And with reports suggesting that 20/1 chance Ed Balls is also preparing to contest the position as and when it becomes available, Hills are predicting that hefty amounts of cash will be gambled on who takes over from Brown ‘We are expecting a substantial six figure gamble on the next Labour leader and the current cash is all for the Milibands - although punters can’t seem to make up their minds which of the two is more likely to come out on top. Long time favourite Alan Johnson’s support is drying up. However, once the job becomes available we are convinced that other high profile candidates will suddenly throw their hats into the ring’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Hills currently make Labour 11/1 outsiders to win the Election with an overall majority, while the Tories are 2/5 to do so, with a Hung Parliament quoted at 9/.
WILLIAM HILL - TO BE NEXT LABOUR LEADER…..3/1 Alan Johnson; 4/1 David Miliband; 4/1 Ed Miliband; 7/1 Harriet Harman; 10/1 Peter Mandelson; 14/1 Jon Cruddas; James Purnell;20/1 Ed Balls; Alastair Darling; Jack Straw.
126 - “WRT the election, I can detect little enthusiasm for the Conservatives (even among Conservatives), but I do detect a big desire to throw the government out.”
Thats exactly the impression I am getting too.
PtP at 110,
Thanks for the offer, but I’ll resist the lure of chasing my losses. As the military maxim goes: “Never reinforce defeat”.
It was fun, though.
Tory candidate caught using member of staff to pose as constituent… in leaflet about honesty
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1238900/Tory-candidate-Jacob-Rees-Mogg-red-faced-using-member-staff-pose-constituent-leaflet.html
Tim’s going to love this
243. 500/1 for Rooney’s kid to play for England is not a bad bet. I don’t think there’ve been all that many father-son combos in international football - for England at least - but the number of relatives who make it to the top level across various sports would indicate that genetics and contacts certainly make a huge difference.
249. Especially since there’s a couple of Rooneys relatives already playing in the lower leagues. Suggests decent genes at work.
Once AGAIN my prediction was correct !
Congratulations to Richard
Bell…pressure!!!!!
248/9 - Jacob Rees Mogg.
Nature or Nurture, discuss.
252,ave it,I see you and malcolmG have been at it again
249/50. On second thoughts, it’s probably not so good.
I stand by the comment about the nominal odds but taking the bet is in effect a triple on the bookmaker still being around to pay out and inflation staying low in the interim, as well as Rooney’s kid doing his bit. (Also, the punter being around to collect)
As an example, if someone had placed a shilling bet on Brian Clough’s son to play for England, they’d have won their £25 but by 1989, the value of their winnings would be pretty paltry compared with what they’d have anticipated in the mid Sixties.
245. Most interesting but I still feel there will be not be a Leicestershire NW by-election:
Labour would not want the embarrassment of a certain loss and a swing greater than would happen in the GE and
Labour would not wish to allow a high BNP vote which would happen in the by-election (it may also happen in the GE).
They may issue the writ knowing there will be no time to have the by-election
253. I don’t think science can explain Jacob Rees-Mogg. The only rational explanation is that he’s a performance artist, who’s spent 40 odd years in character.
253,the discuss bit tim, I sure you will be doing that and more for us tim.
257
14. Richie Rich December 28th, 2009 at 5:39 am
You mention “Their do nothing approach” - From what i have seen and personally experienced Labour have done nothing!!!
Indeed I get punished twice from being out of work and then having to pay taxes once the economy improves for the huge amount of waste Labour have indulged in through such measures as the VAT reduction before you put it up again later this week. Plus I have to pay back all my own personal borrowings.
The 5 Million on the Dole and Employment and Support allowance do not share your view of the government helping and i doubt the continuing flood of immigrants will assist Labour even though Labour said they would allow immigrants to vote 2 years early if they helped trade unions or campaigned with political paries or undertook civic voulontary work.
**** BETTING POST ****
The “STJOHN” deluxe betting tipping service are on
Operation Houdini 1 point each way at 14/1 in the Welsh Grand National at 2.10 pm. With sportingbet who refund win part of the satke if selection falls, is unseated.
248. As it seems the picture was taken in Midsomer Norton, presumably the Mail’s objection to the caption is that, as an employee, she is not a lady?
260,well said mr day,hope you had a good christmas.
227. “No-one has said that the Scots are responsible for the wole of the financial mess. That would be silly.”
But I think the silliness goes considerably further than that. Whenever someone points out the “Scottishness” of RBS, I would just want to point out that Margaret Thatcher’s quasi-colonial Scottish Office team were also Scottish to a man. But they did not, in any way, shape or form, represent Scotland. There’s a distinction between mistakes made by individual Scots and Scottish companies, and mistakes made “by Scotland”.
258 - I doubt that Rees Mogg will top his performance in 1997 when he took his nanny to canvasss with him in an old Scottish mining constituency, but it looks like he’s determined to have a go.
248. johnno December 28th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
To be fair, None of the ‘charges’ laid against Mogg are really very good. He did not say the women was from that part of the world and I dont have a problem with his staff writing material - what would a researcher do FFS!
Now the canvassing in a Bently 12 years ago was rightly ceased upon but this is bollocks!
I have noticed the papers keep going for those candidates deemed to have a ’silver spoon in thier mouth’ another one is Goldsmith and then their is Jacobs fragrent sister!
It is interesting that the distrubution of the seats and likely opposition in some of them. Nobody bangs on about John Thurso MP or Hiliary Benn or Hariet Harmmen!
265,I was going to mention the nanny bit,but I could’nt stop laughing
254
malcolmG is a top poster really - at least he responds unlike mark senior!!
260 N1 martin - glad you are back on a regular basis!!
266,the mail has never liked mr cameron.
*** Betting Post ***Thanks to Sparky at 245 - that is a superb arbitrage opportunity. By taking Hill’s 4/7 on Brown remaining as leader, and Ladbrokes 5/1 on him not being leader at the next election, you’ve got a guaranteed profit (subject to usual caveats of interpretation etc).
Even better: Combine Hill’s 4/7 on Brown remaining, with a Sell on SPIN’s Brown and Out market at 1035. If Brown is pushed out in January, the SPIN market gives you an approximate 15/1 compared with a May 6 election date (3/1 compared with 3rd June). Plus you might win both, if Brown stays and there is an election earlier than 28 April.
For reference on the SPIN market:
13/1/10 = 930
1/3/10 = 977
28/4/10 = 1035 [current SELL price]
6/5/10 = 1043
3/6/10 = 1072
Hi to Martin from your old mate Patrick in Bournemouth-hope you had a great Xmas,and good to hear you sounding well!
An example of the respect punters have for Mike Smithson?
Odds on best pollster for next GE. Yougov 1st at 5/2 and Angus Reid Strategies are joint 2nd with ICM at 3/1. Paddy Power.
Here’s a relief. Apparantly, Julie Bindel no longer regards all men as evil.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/27/goodbye-noughties-lesbianism-men
It reads a bit like someone explaining that some of their best friends are black.
263. johnno December 28th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
Indeed, thank you!
I did have a good XMAS and did not get the trots this year either when travelling to wales! 
It was this place we kept going to eat in! I blame it on the Itailian man with the earing!
Hope you had a good one as well!
I took a break from the internet! Given the GE should arrive it could be my last break from it for a while! I have not had a drink since before xmas!
All these anti-tory stories just illustrates that Dacre is working hard for that peerage from Labour.
273
the lib dems beware sign should be back up then 
me off to the footy,here’s hoping for a home win
267 - Allegedly, Rees Mogg, with Nanny got very excited going into his very first fish and chip shop in Fife.
It’s a shame the Ali G interview is not online.
264. James Kelly December 28th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
I would say, rather, that Scottish-registered companies were implicated to about the same degree as those in most parts of the developed world. It’s ridiculous to say that we are “paying for the mistakes of Scottish banks” specifically. Anyway, the parts of the country most proof against such a gibe would be those with no recognisable economic activity.
That said, I’m not sure about your formulation that XXish institutions don’t reflect discredit on country XX as a whole. While it sounds reasonable and all, the problem is that in that case they presumably don’t reflect credit either. Just imagine, if Scotland were finally to win the World Cup and you all had to stand around saying, “Just a matter for the football team, nothing for the rest of us to cheer about”.
276 Presumably, ex-nanny. I suspect she was no longer employed in that capacity.
271. Patrick West Ham fan who is basically Labour but has despaired of Gordon Brown December 28th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
Thanks! Did you see the only fools and houses with Gary in it?! It was before xmas and old xmas special - even that would be seen as non PC - I laughed my head off!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyRIWKMJziQ
279 You never know. Some people are into infantilism.
272. TC December 28th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
“Odds on best pollster for next GE.”
I noticed that. It’s also interesting that YouGov are ahead of gold-standard ICM.
Just had a look at Michael White’s article suggesting Alex Salmond as one of the politicians of the decade, and not wanting to be churlish at such a moment or anything, but I’m sure I can spot little traces of contributions I made to Salmond’s Wikipedia biography about four years ago. That’s not the first time it’s happened either - I saw a Sunday Times profile of Salmond in 2007 that was even more blatant.
Fleet Street really ought to be paying me a salary.
245/270. Extraordinary arb. I’m on!
First of all congratulations to everyone who made it into the final round of POTY and to our two front runners. Both worthy winners and in many respects a shared award.
As to the identity of Richie Rich which OGH speculates on, from the looks of his previous posts I actually think he is more in the McBride central camp as he seems to be happy with any vile attack line as long as it makes the Tories look like baby-eaters.
As to Brown going making Labour instantly more popular, didn’t some pollsters look at this and came to the conclusion that it would add 2-4% to the Labour support totals if the most popular leader was added. Now that would certainly swing things into a hung parliament territory at the moment, but we don’t know how long that would last.
For the transfer bounce to last then you would have to choose someone who was relatively untainted by Iraq and the economic collapse, that could also be seen as someone who could credibly run a government for 4-5 years whilst having widespread voter appeal. Who in Labour fits this?
For the Tories, the danger is that if it works, it can leave their attack lines a little out of sync. It has been primarily about Brown, not Labour (Brown’s Debt, Brown’s Boom & Bust etc). Really they need to widen this to encompass Labour as a whole now. Brown is damaged enough and they gain nothing from keeping him on a downward popularity trend.
277. Point taken, Michael, but as individual Scottish elector, when people talk about the “Scottish disaster”, I think to myself “how exactly am I to blame for that?”. I didn’t help to elect the RBS board, and the regulatory framework was decided at a UK-wide level.
278 - Thats where you are wrong.
Rees Mogg actually still has a nanny to look after him.
“I do wish you wouldn’t keep going on about my nanny. If I had a valet you’d think it was perfectly normal.
283. I have combined Hills and Ladbrokes prices. £7 at 4/7 and £1 ant 5/1 is equivalent to 6/4 Brown leads Labour at the next General Election. Cracking value.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1238822/The-student-visa-loophole-lets-1-5m-country-unchecked.html
To have been honest Labour really should have campaigned on “immigration, immigration, immigration”
“In 2008-9 the Government issued 236,470 full student visas. In 1998 the figure was 69,607. A further 144,000 students were given permission to enter for six months or less last year, as socalled student visitors - giving a total of 371,000.
The figure dwarfs the 134,000 work permits handed out last year - meaning almost threequarters of those foreign nationals given permission to enter Britain under the points-based system were students.”
“Sir Andrew Green, chairman of MigrationWatch-said: ‘The whole scale of student visas has got completely out of control. The much-vaunted points-based system cannot even weed out bogus students let alone terrorist threats.’
Students also account for a huge number of applications for extension of leave to remain in the UK. Between 2004 and 2007 they averaged about 140,000 per year. Only about 5 per cent were refused.
MigrationWatch’s report warns there have been no checks on departure once the student visas expired - so many could still be in the UK.”
tellingly
“Sir Andrew added: ‘We now issue 370,000 student visas a year yet hardly any of the applicants ever see hide nor hair of an immigration officer.’”
286 I think we need some context with that. Link?
231 SSC
That would have put the cat amongst the pigeons!
242, bad luck, Mr. Submarine. I voted for you!
On the plus side, you came second, which is what all gentleman aim to do and better than a Lib Dem usually manages
Read it and weep
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1238837/Family-16-live-37-000-year-benefits-fresh-blow-welfare-system.html
“The total amount is £36,847 a year, equivalent to someone earning a gross salary of £51,500.”
“‘There’s no point me even trying to look for a job. I’ve got a family of 15 to support. I’m better off staying at home and helping Dawn with the kids.
‘People could call us scroungers but what would they do in the same situation?’”
290. On the plus side it would probably make independence more likely, as most of the SNP heartlands are to the north of Antonine’s Wall.
Actually, where I live is right on top of the path of Antonine’s Wall. Border post in my living room?
227. Gwynfa
“Because Scotland had an iconic brand — Scottish prudence and probity aided and abetted the Scottish financial sector enormously.”
Scotland was fortunate in its iconic professions.
As well as the prudent Scottish banker there was the wise Scottish doctor, the resourceful Scottish engineer (how often was the engineer in old films called Jock or Mac or Scotty?) and the fearless Highland soldier.
I suspect that the high regard in which Scotland is still generally viewed in the wider world is largely because of these iconic brands.
What’s the modern equivalent Scottish brand though?
The incompetant box ticking social worker perhaps?
279 Yes,I did see the Gary episode-the BBC showed most,if not all of the last few Xmas specials last week
290 You,being a cat=lover may find this amusing-about 15 years ago I was with a relative,who owned a huge pure white male cat-I picked him (quite an effort) ,and put him by several pigeons pecking around on the ground-the lazy cat just sat there licking his paws-no wonder he was so heavy,he never burnt any calories
294. “The incompetant box ticking social worker perhaps?”
Sadly, he or she won’t be ticking the box marked “spells incompetent correctly?”
295 Ah Patrick Blofeld I presume
297 I’m actually Patrick O’Connor-it was just a prank,I knew the cat would not harm anything,he was a big softy!
291 Morris Dancer
Under certain circumstances, coming third can be even more gentlemanly.
284. SthLondon Nick December 28th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
Surely it is too late for a change of Labour leadership.
I dont think it will happen unless Brown bottles it last minute.
The PLP election for chair of the Labour party was the last chance for a change in Labour leadership. It was uncontested and Byers, and Milburn would have held on if there was a chance of change of leader - Hutton is standing down as well.
Therefore any “Talent” will have been thrown out or walked - indeed one could argue in some respects a last minute change from Brown makes it easier for Cameron as Brown and Labour will have denied the voters a chance on passing a verdict on the most profligate and self-serving period a party has been in office and its leader. The “no time for a novice comes back to hit Labour” as well and indeed what would a new Labour leader be there for apart from a cynical ploy? What narrative could a new labour leader have? None as far as I can see as the crisis is not over: Public spending and economic failure are still entrenched in the system Labour have created. Labour have left it too late, they are just going to have to get on it!
I still think Brown crazy not going to the country before VAT is restored and the ED Balls inspired dividing line of the Tories putting it upto 20% and Labour saying they wont is laughable - Labour have effectively after Jan 1st put VAT up and any increase above 17.5% will be as a result of the temporary reduction that did little. Indeed the VAT change was not just costly in terms of lost tax revenue but to businesses as well as costs of change. The political impact is all negative as well as far as Labour will see as the Tax goes up within memory time of an election!
292 A few more families like that,and you’d have a Jeremy Kyle audience
another richard December 28th, 2009 at 2:17 pm “What’s the modern equivalent Scottish brand though?”
Rab C Nesbit?
Glasgow, a lower life expectancy than poor countries.
299, *gasp* you bounder!
148 Equally trying to make out that the all Scottish board of RBS messed up purely because of the Union as opposed to their own decisions is just as rubbish as well.
Okaaaayyyy - what’s the joke about Gary in that clip from Only Fools and Horses?
I even read the comments under the video and still have no idea
I thought the best OFAH was when Damian was born - I cried with laughter for hours afterwards
302 Rab C Nesbitt gave millions a good laugh-as a south coast Englander,I never missed the show during its run!
305, the actor later played one of the dire Ferrero family in Eastenders (shortly after their emergence I heroically stopped watching the depressing cockney programme).
305 Surely you have seen the chandelier disaster (very early in the programme’s history)-which was filmed in west Dorset-somewhere between Dorchester and Sherborne
298 I was an O’Connor for many yrs before getting unhitched
The many and varied ways that call centre people can get it wrong is a wonder to behold, here are a few examples that have happened to me!
Mrs OCConnor
Mrs OConner
Mrs O. Connor
Mrs O. Conner
Mrs OhConnor
Mrs Oconer
Mrs Occonah
It must be my RP accent
289 -Is Rees Mogg the only PPC to have a Nanny?
I think we should be told.
If I’ve got a nanny, I’ve got a nanny. And if anybody doesn’t like it - tough!’ But why did someone of 30 need a nanny? Wasn’t he a little old for that sort of thing?.
‘There’s a difference,’ responds Rees-Mogg with dignity, ‘between need and making life more comfortable. Why should I make my life uncomfortable just so a few gossip columnists are deprived of their material? It would be so boring!’ But what does his Nanny do? ‘Well, if I have dinner parties, she cooks - when I’ve got an oven. And she washes, and all that sort of thing.’ I have been told about his dinner parties. They are white tie, and Rees-Mogg goes to huge trouble to look after his guests. The hitch comes at the end of the evening when he asks the girls to leave the men to their port. Rebellion inevitably ensues.
But Rees-Mogg is sublimely oblivious to such controversies. ‘I don’t see what the problem is!’ When I tell him the rest of us make do with cleaning ladies, if we are lucky, Rees-Mogg spectacularly misses the point. ‘So you don’t feel some moral imperative to do yourself, either?’ he cries. ‘So you’re in exactly the same position as I am!’ Veronica Crook is firmly in the mould of the old-fashioned nanny who stays with the family forever and does not marry or have children herself. Raised in Somerset, she is in her early fifties and lives with Rees-Mogg’s parents in London. ‘She’s been with the family for 35 years, so she’s been there longer than I have,’ observes her charge. Was she strict? ‘No, she’s always indulged us. She rellies round if anyone needs anything.’ When Rees-Mogg’s older brother Thomas had a baby, Veronica was on hand, and she helps with the other grandchildren. ‘I entered her for a Nanny of the Year competition three years ago,’ Rees-Mogg confides, ‘and she only came second, which I_hought was outrageous.’
http://findarticles.com/p/news-articles/mail-on-sunday-london-england-the/mi_8003/is_2000_March_26/truth-nanny/ai_n36244794/pg_3/?tag=content;col1
308 Yes I have
- still can’t place him though 
309 The only frequent mistake I encounter is an ‘e’ as opposed the ‘o’ that should be the pneultimate letter.
BTW RP accent-I recall you’re a Geordie by birth,but what does RP stand for please?
Upate on the STJOHN deluxe betting tip service.
Operation Houdini fell when fading. Sorry to see him fall but sportingbet will redeem the win part of my stake. Always worth looking for these offers.
As we approach the end of 2009, “STJOHN 2009/10″ record is 5 tips, all each way, placed 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 5th and Fell.
10 points staked. Net position +1 point. 10% return on stakes. And that’s without backing a winner. Just imagine the reurns next year when we get our first winners on the board!
309 “It must be my RP accent”
To be sure, to be sure.
310. Jesus, tim, enough. It’s embarrassing enough that the man exists, let alone that he’s a member of the same political party as me. HAVE MERCY.
obama’s by Rasmussen : 47 (+3)
292: Hmm, if the report is correct, he’s breaking the rules by claiming JSA while on his own account not trying to find a job. JSA recipients are required to show evidence to the contrary.
253/257: funny! Martin Day is right that the Mail in particular seems to target toffs and anyone one might call a grandee more than most, though some of the comments from the Goldsmith camp did feed the ‘on another planet’ image.
Plato: for some reason, press “have your say” (etc.) comments nearly always attract angry, apparently right-wing, people - e.g. the Guardian website comments have always been strongly anti-Labour as long as I can remember, but that appears not true of the readership in general. It’s the literate equivalent of a voodoo poll (there’s nothing to stop the same people posting under different names and agreeing with themselves), perhaps the modern counterpart of Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells.
Spekaing of which, the Telegraph’s new book “Am I alone in Thinking…” with readers’ letters that didn’t make it into print is really very funny. It mildly mocks both the obvious targets (politicians and so on) and the readers at the same time.
if i win that bet of $2k @ 3-1 it would be a great way to begin 2010… Go ‘bama! Go!
312 My mother wanted me to sound like a BBC news presenter [Moira Stewart was her favourite exponent of Received Pronunciation].
Unfortunately, when I get sloshed - I start sounding like Jimmy Nail instead
310 That’s what most people would call a “housekeeper” then.
I’d have one myself if I could afford one.
285 “I didn’t help to elect the RBS board, and the regulatory framework was decided at a UK-wide level. ”
Let me be a Devil’s Advocate (in the friendliest of spirits).
Why did a small Scottish bank embark on a series of takeovers that made it enormous — and which ultimately led to disaster when it finally over-reached itself with the purchase of ABN Ambro?
Was there, for example, a political party which contributed to the feeling that Scottish companies could, and should, punch above their weight on the world-stage ?
Compare for example the fate of RBS to the fate of Scottish Power — which was lauded by the SNP when it took over PacificCorp, (”Scottish companies straddling the world stage, etc”) — but alas that too was a takeover too far.
After all, Salmond’s “arc of prosperity” relied partly on financial services as a driver of prosperity in an independent Scotland.
So — was there a political party that contributed — just possibly contributed, I use no stronger word — to the feeling of recklessness in RBS?
Of course, no one person or group of people were solely responsible for the financial mess — many of us bear responsibility. And maybe the SNP does bear an iota of it as well!
309 You can’t necessarily blame the call centre staff for all of those, you would be surprised at the database software that can’t accept that a surname can have an apostrophe, or two capital letters, in it. My mother’s maiden name has an apostrophe in it and it means that on any online security that asks for it as an identifier, I can never remember whether the apostrophe is in or not.
317 NPMP - ah so those Conservatives for Labour just don’t ever contribute to readers’ comment sections?
The Guardian goes through phases of being infested with anti-Labour comments [and increasingly so] - but there is still a big More Labour Please contingent.
These people do not post in the Times which is the point I’m making
321. “So — was there a political party that contributed — just possibly contributed, I use no stronger word — to the feeling of recklessness in RBS?”
Yes, and dare I suggest (in the friendliest of spirits) that party was the Labour Party, holding as they did all the relevant reserved powers?
Interesting vocabulary you use about the SNP - ‘encouraged’, ‘contributed to a feeling‘. It’s all a bit wispy, isn’t it? If they’d held the actual powers, all this stuff would be somewhat more persuasive.
313 Just nailed a 10/1 winner.
Eat your heart out, Brummie Boy.
321 Top post. Further Re 2011 I agree.
WRT Scotland I think the SNP will remain ahead of Labour but their overreliance on list seats mean Labour can form a minority Government as others rise again. Doubt the Lib Dems will risk a formal coalition though. Probably informal agreement as between the SNP and Scots Tories as at present.
WRT Labour I think on Wales Labour will drop back further but the Lib Dems will advance sufficiently that Labour can drop their PC sky pilots so that the coalition Labour prefers will just be viable but that the Lib Dems will demand the price that proved so costly in Scotland to Labour on local Government. But out in the cold at Westminster they will probably pay it. By luck or judgement the decision to steer clear of coalition with Labour will likely reap rewards both next year in Newport and Swansea and in 2011 when with the unpopular Brown administration a memory they can cut a profitable deal.
315 - even worse, I doubt he’s a Cowboys fan
326. “WRT Scotland I think the SNP will remain ahead of Labour but their overreliance on list seats mean Labour can form a minority Government as others rise again.”
Punter, I know I agreed that’s possible the other day, but for what it’s worth I don’t think it’s particularly likely. The SNP would have to be 2% ahead or less for that scenario to come about. Also there would have to be a major revival in the smaller parties, and there’s no great sign of that yet. Certainly the far-left in Scotland look to be pretty much finished for now.
328 For now yes. It is only speculation but I feel it likely it will be close as Labour freed from the shackles of Brown in 2011 and with the advantage in Constituencies will recover somewhat. In addition I doubt others whether it be far left the Lib Dems or whoever will be so low as previously simply because in Government you upset various groups. That is inevitable and on the PR list the effect is amplified. Will it be enough? Perhaps not but structurally it looks harder for the SNP in 2011.
From Iain Dale
Political Gaffe of the Year
1. Gordon Brown saying “I saved the world”.
2. Jacqui Smith’s expenses
3. Gordon Brown gurning on YouTube
Political Hate Figure of 2009
1. Gordon Brown
2. Ed Balls
3. Nick Griffin
Political Moment of the Year
1. Dan Hann’s speech attacking Gordon Brown
2. Joanna Lumley ripping into Phil Woolas
3. Day One of th Telegraph’s coverage of the expenses scandal
242. Yellow Submarine (Deputy POTY). Before you set your rapier like pen onto me…..
…Sorry if my comments about your haven’t been as supportive and Christmassy as most on here but yesterday’s post that the fox hunting ban should be repealed because to continue it is an assault on freedom was for me a step too far.
Do the feelings of dumb animals not count if they interfere in the pleasure of those who hunt them? Humans take pleasure in all sorts of things but what I always admired about Lib Dems was that they were interested in the the rights of the oppressed-particularly those not able to speak for themselves.
Anyway my non endorsement was sure to have added a few waverers to your column and I do enjoy reading your posts!
331 - The lib dem parliamentary party is pretty much split 50/50 on the foxhunting ban.
331
Toger
As you are so concerned about the feelings of dumb animals , no doubt you are a vegetarian, do not wear leather shoes.. or suede. don’t cook with animal fats and don’t eat fish?
As for fishing? torture.
And of course you eat no dairy products?
Otherwise you are just another of these people who say one thing and do another.
But as I have every faith in you. I know you are a good guy and practise what you preach:-)
334
Toger? Roger… Sorryy.
142.
I am NOT wayne.
I am a lass from Yorkshire,
Had the misfortune of having to live through two Labour governments,this one being so completely spiteful and useless it beggars belief.