PB/Angus Reid poll has the Tories back on 40pc
December 10th, 2009
CON 40%(39)
LAB 23%(22)
LD 19%(21)
OTHERS 18% (18)
Has Labour been hurt by the PBR?
In the first national voting intention poll to be published after Mr.Darling’s PBR statement both Labour and the Tories move up but the Lib Dem drop down.
Fieldwork started on Tuesday and carried on until a few hours ago with just under a third of responses coming in after the Chancellor’s statement.
So of the last four national voting intention polls to come out the Tories are in the 40s with three of them.. The “others” are split - SNP 3%: PC 1%: UKIP 7%: BNP 4%: GRN 3%.
All polling is about trends and yet again an Angus Reid Strategies survey shows very little movement. In all four polls for since the PB series started in October the Tories and Labour have been within a two point range while the Lib Dem have seen a three point one.
The Tory share is very much in line with other recent polls. Where this survey is different is in the levels of support being recorded by the smaller parties and the low Labour share.
This is probably down to methodology. Angus Reid Strategies weight by what respondents say they did in 2005 with no adjustments being made for false recall and to deal with the so-called “spiral of silence”. These are measures used by ICM, Populus and ComRes.
The full data should be out by tomorrow.
UPDATE - 8pm: The full data for tonight’s poll is available here.
Mike Smithson
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Woo hoo
Interesting!
Brilliant news. Labour will be pleased with the clear yellow water between themselves and the yellow peril
Same patten, different totals. Labour still lower. Glad to see the Tories stabilised a bit.
Bugger
Good to see PB setting the agenda and getting the first post PBR poll out. Nice work.
Will this get a mention on the likes of the BBC I wonder?
5 Is that Chris Patten?
Populus probably carried out their survey in Glasgow !
Oh dear - will Nick P be calling for another investigation into AR polls?
I thought there was supposed to be another poll out today?
6 - In a public forum? Oooh err.
Just seems to be a case of as you were. The really interesting polls will be those showing the full impact of the PBR, but with Christmas coming up I think we’ll have to wait until January to see that.
12 - Comres tweeted that they would have a poll about the PBR.
12
Only a reaction to the PBR from Comres. It might not have voting intentions. We dont know yet.
MOE. I think the Tories would prefer 40-23 to 39-22 though.
It’s difficult to assess how much weight to put on ARS polling. It’s the new kid on the block and hasn’t been tested even in an EU or local election. For now, I’ll be using it to watch its trends rather than placing too much reliance on its voting shares. However, it is interesting that the Tory share is in line with other pollsters and that it is the Labour share that is significantly out of line.
A 1/3 came in after Darling’s dithering. I wonder many of the other 2/3 would like to change their vote in light of it and subsequent press coverage?
12.Didn’t someone see a hint of a ComRes poll possible due tonight?
Well done to the Angus Reid team for being ahead of the game today.
The media reaction and that from the general public on radio phone-ins to the PBR was almost universally hostile. Labour will pay for it in the next lot of Polls!
15, I’ll wait until their weightings before taking their figures at face value.
On this poll, good news, I’m sure the media will report it extensively. (Actually, they might do as it fits with the PBR-slamming narrative, though I slightly doubt it).
Baxtered this gives a Tory Majority of 120.
ARS are remarkably consistent, which suggests they have a robust methodology. In comparison to other pollsters, the only real difference is a lower labour score and higher others.
If only 1/3 of the responses were received post-PBR it would be difficult to say that this is any kind of judgement on the measures. It would normally take a couple of days to filter through. What might give us an early predictor would be if those 1/3 of responses were separated out.
9 - I am not Chris Patten. My fault I was attempting a concise comment whilst attempting to win the PB.com first place handicap race. I failed.
11 - If it happens, would our host give a thread the headline “Nick Palmer MP carries out ARS probe”?
Perhaps not.
Others still seem way too high with ARS. I really can’t believe come election nearly 1 in 5 are going to vote for a minor party (no jokes about Lib Dems!).
Re poll - that’s a rogue IMHO, the lead isn’t 17%. It’s about 13 +/1 3%. Below 10 or above 16 I don’t believe. Not as grossly wrong as the 8% lead but nearly.
fpt 264 - Has HaHa ever been pleased about anything in her entire life? I can’t imagine her being pleased, only briefly less angry.
“Congratulations, Harriet. I’m pleased to tell you you are now head girl of St Pauls’ incredibly expensive elite private school.”
“Thank you, Imperatrix High Warden, but the real issue here is why am I at a school where the fees are only £20,000 a year when a privileged elite gets to pay £28,000 at Eton? Answer me that b1tch.”
“Mmmmm Harriet. That was amazing baby. You are one hot bluestocking beyotch in the sack. Was it good for you?”
“Yes Jack, I enjoyed that so much I have gone from being furious to being merely irritable.”
“Congratulations Ms Harman. It’s a girl.”
“Thank you doctor. This is the least angry day of my life.”
Others are really high - and UKIP on 7% ? Is this still fall-out from Lisbon?
BNP 4% is a worry if it’s concentrated.
Has there been any progress on admitting ARS to the BPC?
These Angus/Reid polls are always ignored by the chattering classes and BBC. Wonder why that it.
Mike, you said a third of the responses came in after the pbr. Is there anyway you could split the samples so we can compare pre and post voting intentions? I know the samles will be small, but it would be interesting to see nonetheless.
Unless there is a significant increase in the Tory lead shown by other pollsters, I’d imagine the main outcome of this poll will be the media putting Angus Reid on ‘ignore’ in future. The consistently low Labour figures are looking increasingly implausible.
Mike, do you know when we’re getting Robert’s Reverse VIPA article?
32, ComRes and Mori have both had some rogueish polls, and altering weightings diminishes validity because you aren’t comparing like with like. We don’t know how accurate ARS is, but they are consistent.
The PBR is old hat already; its BellTowerGate billed by the BellEnd Quisling, all the way, baby.
25. Antifrank - brilliant
Angus Reid - Wacko? Discuss. They should be within the MoE of other pollster. Currently nowhere near.
“These Angus/Reid polls are always ignored by the chattering classes and BBC. Wonder why that it.”
Because they’ve only been going a couple of months and aren’t well known?
32 Good God, a comment by Wee Jimma Kelly I agree with!
* goes for a little lie down *
28 - indeed any kind of support is a worry. However with the question phrased as ARS does, then the higher others could just be a result of those living in safe seats wanting to protest. As the LibDems have done well in the ARS polls, any kind of slippage would be worrying to them and pleasing for Labour to see them gaining from that.
I am a bit concerned about internet polling generally.
We all know that certain types of people can be very noisy on the internet but aren’t really a massive voting bloc. We saw this in the States with the Ron Paul faction.
The same, I suspect, is true of UKIP here. Note that even though the sample may be demographically balanced as well as past vote weighted - for example, getting approximately the right number of old people who voted Lib Dem last time - the fact remains that it is limited to people who have a familiarity with the internet/email. This itself might have a biasing effect.
I think Yougov and ARS should provide more detail on how they actually compose their panel.
32. 37. Oh dear - methinks lefties no like this poll.
The key thing is that there is no sign from AR of a trend towards Labour developing. As I posted a few days ago, I think the little pro-Labour movement we have seen in recent weeks ended last weekend, and will now begin to go into reverse as the emptiness of Labour’s economic cupboard becomes increasingly clear.
Incidentally, there is an an interesting, albeit voodoo, on-line poll on the Irish Independent website. Currently as follows:
Given the state of the nation’s finances, do you think this [Lenihan's] is a fair budget? Yes 56%, No 39%, Undecided 5%
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/budget/budget-2010-1969371.html
Given the absolutely draconian nature of the Irish budget, including drastic cuts in benefits and in public-sector salaries, that is a remarkable result IMO.
37 Unless they are showing something no one else has spotted yet.
I’m intrigued and happy to listen to them. A new approach isn’t necessarily the wrong approach.
32 - You may well be right about the media reaction.
However, as I said to NPMP, Angus Reid might be the only firm calling this right; judging them by how well they fit with the others is more than a little bit unfair - and for them to change their methodology simply to get in line would lack integrity. We’ll just have to wait and see.
34. Polls can be consistently wrong, and wrong by a consistent amount, as we discovered in 1992. Of course we don’t know that Angus Reid aren’t right and the others wrong, but it seems rather more plausible that if a GE was held tomorrow Labour would be in the high rather than low twenties.
Ding dong! merrily on high
On blogs the bells are ringing:
Ding dong! verily on Sky
Is riv’n with Davies whinging.
REFRAIN
Toria,
Osborne in excelsis!
I think I’ll be sticking with ICM for betting purposes.
The ARS tory score is consistent with other pollsters. The LD score is also consistent.
It’s the Lab score that is lower, and the ‘other’ score is higher. This might be, as OGH points out in the blog, that ARS don’t adjust for the spiral of silence. Might be something else.
If you knock 4 of others and give it to Lab, that’s almost identical with recent polls.
I don’t see anyone moaning that Populus consistently score the tories slightly lower than other pollsters.
Another excellent poll from Angus Reid. They are very consistent with the 17% lead aren’t they?
41 - I think Internet polling is one that will boost minor parties, especially ones that aren’t social acceptable.
Can’t see many people admitting over the phone that they plan to vote BNP.
Should be noted, Angus Reid was the most accurate pollster in Canada, so they do have a track record with their methodology.
I think Mike’s likely to be right about not adjusting for false recall (or some other methodological issue) accounting for the difference - it’s too marked for every poll to be due to random factors. So one can’t really compare across polls, but this appears to bear about the impression that the PBR isn’t shifting people either way very much. Richard Nabavi was predicting a marked shift to the Tories, but I don’t think it’s had a huge impact, though the effect can take a couple of days to filter through.
46. Does it? Why?
Their vote share in other recent actual elections has been very low and often at the bottom of the pollsters’ ranges.
Deflation is the enemy of Labour - the complete deflation of all the (plurality of voters’) hopes (that is, illusions) in 1997 about what NuLabour might achieve. I feel the air has really gone out of Labour’s balloon in the last 30 hours (predictable, really … and why some have never wavered from an Overall Majority for the Tories and a 2010 election).
42 Wouldn’t it be funny if ARS keep predicting 40-23-19 ish and the lefty slag if off up to the election, and then that is what the result is.
47 - Osborne in excelsis!
42. “Oh dear - methinks lefties no like this poll.”
Oh dear, methinks it hasn’t occurred to Runnymede that a leftie might be an SNP rather than Labour supporter, and that said leftie might be rather encouraged by the 3% showing for the SNP. Methinks it hasn’t occurred to Runnymede that leftie might just be saying what he thinks.
bear about=bear out!
27.
John R is fast becoming ones of my favourite posters on this site!
(although the Harman se*x was disturbing - she has teeth like an Orc)
Is the Conservative figure doing slightly better if the field work is carried out during the week?
Good news, though I’d like to see what the polls conducted fully after the PBR have to say.
60 - Thats a myth, like the myth about the Tories doing less well at Xmas.
aaron is of course right that it might be that AR are correct and everyone else is wrong. However, it’s fairly unlikely - the track record of the other institutes is variable but not that bad and if they;’re all showing one thing and AR are showing something else, it’s risky to guess that AR is right.
32 “The consistently low Labour figures are looking increasingly implausible.”
I think 30% for Labour is implausible. I know many lefties but find any admitting they would vote Labour.
57. I know you are a Nat, but I don’t distinguish between rabid Nat lefties and their Labour counterparts. Perhaps I should though as the former have more comedy value.
61 Indeed - the news will take a couple of days to sink in, I chatted to a friend today and he’d only just started to hear about the PBR this morning from the radio.
32. “I’d imagine the main outcome of this poll will be the media putting Angus Reid on ‘ignore’ in future. The consistently low Labour figures are looking increasingly implausible.”
I can’t wait until Mike Smithson responds to this comment.
*Gets Popcorn*
32 “The consistently low Labour figures are looking increasingly implausible.”
I think 30% for Labour is implausible. I know many lefties but cant find any admitting they would vote Labour next time.
They sit stoney faced and say nothing. Even up to last year they would argue as good as any lefty pbc drone.
52
Nick Palmer, What a load of tosh. I seem to recall you used to write that it took time for such matters to sink in to the voters consciousness… and you are right. Its far to early to make such a statement, and only 1/3 of voters were polled after the PBR.
Nice try, but failed.
64 Mr Wasabi - I agree, Labour on 30% just doesn’t feel likely at all.
39. John R - don’t be fooled. James’ post breaches *TWO* of Mike Smithson’s fundamental rules of polling.
Mikey no likey this sort of commenty.
52 - Nick, I really don’t think this poll says anything about the PBR, despite Mike (understandably) trying to big it up on that basis. Even if the PBR had a momentous [and instantaneous] 3-point effect on one party’s rating, that would only equate to a 1% movement here; barely noticeable.
It might be the case that the PBR had a substantial effect, but most of that would have taken some time to feed through (news cycle and all that). We’d need a poll with fieldwork starting today (or better still, tomorrow) to get to the bottom of it, I think.
Darling ‘must find £15bn in cuts’ - Alistair Darling has not revealed the full extent of spending cuts needed to balance Britain’s books, experts warn.
Darling’s “Honest John” reputation is going to be as trashed as Cheetah Woods at this rate!
The regional splits will be interesting to see, if they follow the ICM trend that South London Nick identified.
69 Nick is waiting for the Comres poll to tell us that Alistair was wonderful.
How does Gordon spend £2700 redecorating a downstairs bog?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1234691/Climate-Change-Secretary-bought-bottled-water-office–claimed-expenses.html
65, 67. “I know you are a Nat, but I don’t distinguish between rabid Nat lefties and their Labour counterparts. Perhaps I should though as the former have more comedy value.”
“I can’t wait until Mike Smithson responds to this comment.
*Gets Popcorn*”
Hmmm, seems I’ve unexpectedly touched a bit of a nerve with the Tory herd! Normally an indication that I’m onto something…
I want to avoid criticising the poll as I am not expert but it does seem a little odd that the AR poll seems to put Labour at least 3 points behind other polls (bar one ComRes I think) and often at least 5 or 6 points behind the general trend of the polls.
I just wanted to know whether this is just coincidence or whether the AR poll is just not very good OR EVEN whether the consistency of its polls hints that it might be the most accurate?
51. “41 - I think Internet polling is one that will boost minor parties, especially ones that aren’t social acceptable.”
That’s an interesting point. Does the spiral of silence vary depending upon where a question is asked? You might admit something on-line that you would never admit face to face or on the phone.
If you read CiF, HYS, ConHome or the Daily Mail you’d think the next government would be formed by the BNP, UKIP or SWP.
76. Brown excels at flushing money down the toilet.
63 - The interesting thing for me is that AR were originally “in line” - their first poll was one of three consecutive 17% polls IIRC.
I think it will all come to “others” - and unlike Oracle @ 26 and Plato @ 28, I don’t find the 18% figure that implausible, given the collapse of Labour’s vote and the expenses scandal (it was c. 8% last time). However I do expect the 18% to get squeezed down to c. 14% before the election, all the more so if the hung parliament narrative continues.
76 - Perhaps the answer could be explained by this picture
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/01/27/article-0-03308A89000005DC-78_224×340.jpg
79
Got a very brief comment in moderation in response to Runnymede and CR - if the trigger phrase for the moderation trap is what I suspect it might be, the world has gone mad.
Anyway, the thrust of it was that I’ve obviously hit a nerve.
48. Tim, December 10th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
“I think I’ll be sticking with ICM for betting purposes.”
and I trust you will be still saying that when the next ICM poll shows the Tory lead increasing ??
Answer on a post card please, without any spin or b4llshit - Just a simple “yes or no”
76. He seems to have a knack for spending huge amounts of money on sh*t.
76.
“Sarah McCarthy-Fry’s waterproof towelling mattress and pillow protector”
She into *ahem* “Sports” is she?
Henry Macrory is already on the case. Got to give him his dues, he leaps onto a positive story.
On the Labour/Other figures which is the major difference then could this be highlighting the unpopularity of the govt at the moment? After all, for all we know, in safe seats the Labour support may be thinking about others. We also have some evidence from YouGov that in a marginal the Tory vote goes up, so again this may be reflected.
What this poll does is reflect the trends - Labour up a bit, Tories on 40 and higher than expected Others. More expenses revelations can only help others at the moment.
As to Internet v Phone Polling, YouGov I believe have been the most accurate of pollsters at the last few elections with ICM pretty darn close. They remain the gold standard because they have a track record. I look forward to seeing how ARS do at the polls. Having another organisation does us no harm.
80
Labour do seem to suffer more from expenses. The last dip for them in the polls coincided with Gordon writing that big cheque. 12k wasn’t it?
81 That has to be one of the worst ever photos of Our Glorious Leader
My present hunch is that Labour will fall just short of their 1983 result in both seats and votes, giving them their worst result since 1918. Something like 27.4% and 205 seats. The Tories will struggle to reach 40% though.
86 - Oh dear God, not an image I wanted.
84 - You don’t think I move my betting positions on one poll do you.
If you’d like a bet that ICM get closer to the final result than ARS, I’ll accommodate you
81. HAHA!
Why is that the Tory posters are just *so* much funnier than any others?
TSE/John R/Martin Coxall and Sean T all regularly have me wetting myself!
Hard as I try I’m no match!
52 Nick P - Richard Nabavi was predicting a marked shift to the Tories,
Not this soon, Nick! I’d expect a drift away from Labour over several weeks. One of the triggers is likely to be bad news on jobs in the New Year.
Basically, I think Labour are being held up by a feeling that the economy’s not that bad after all. That feeling will dissipate.
re 29 The ARS application to the BPC should be processed this month. Everything’s been in since the end of October - the wait has been for the next meeting.
In or out of the BPC full details of this poll will be online one helluva lot quicker than the latest Populus poll. When I checked an hour ago the data wasn’t up even though the poll was published on Monday at 8pm.
91, although Brown isn’t photogenic, Milipede (D) beats him by far for stupid photos in my book. At the 2008 conference there are a few. The banana, the “I’m a goggle-eyed goon” photo with Brown, the “I’ve shit my pants and am now crying” handshake photo with Brown… he is Frank Spencer but without the intellectual gravitas.
Brown is extracting the urine with that claim. Does it have a thermostatically warmed toilet seat made from 100% recycled House of Commons Expense Claim reciepts?
I’m not sure I believe the gap is as large as 17%, but I do believe the PBR will have gone down badly. In the past couple of years Labour’s support has taken a big whack after budget day - it was the budget 1 1/2 years ago that helped them plummet to over 20 points adrift and this year it knocked all the wind out of their G20/Saving The World/Serious Man For Serious Times/No Time For A Novice sails.
The odd one out was the PBR last year, which came in the middle of all the banking crises and should be seen in a different light as the public gave Labour the benefit of the doubt at that time.
Wouldn’t be surprise if the next set of polls show a big knock for Labour.
77: “I want to avoid criticising the poll as I am not expert but it does seem a little odd that the AR poll seems to put Labour at least 3 points behind other polls (bar one ComRes I think) and often at least 5 or 6 points behind the general trend of the polls”
The variation between ARS and the rest is, I suggest, all down to their very particular question asking “How will you vote in your constituency”.
This either makes them much more likely to embrace the impact of potential tactical voting at a constituency level or prone to inaccuracy with respondents not being very clear on whic constituency they reside or knowing how to use their vote effectively.
On the other hand, asking a question about voting intention on a national level - as the others do - when we vote only at a constituency level could be quixotic and more prone to error (ICM’s good record notwithstanding).
To claim, now, that ARS MUST be wrong in advance of any results to asses them against is simply jumping to conclusions without any evidence.
YouGov’s internet polling has been pretty good when judged against real outcomes. It is entirely possible that ARS’s USP of its question may have brought a new level of accuracy to polling.
We must wait to find out.
It’s Turning back to the Torie’s - I can feel it in me waters !!
A tidal wave of voters will be coming their way after the PBR, which incidentally stands for “Poor BRitain”
Labour are doomed, DOOMED at the next election!
Gordon Brown = Neil Kinnock!
95 - It’s the material we have to work with.
Golly - R5 saying IFS think-tank predicts £36bn cuts
74 - At the moment I only have them done for ICM. If someone can point me in the direction of the detailed tables for YouGov going back to 2007 then I will try and graph them up. I can then put them online, if someone will kindly cross-check them for me so that there are no inaccuracies. Individual movements are not that useful and the number of people in the sample are obviously lower. As a trend checker they have some use.
On another topic Ed Balls has really done something to Peter on R5L. He’s like a dog looking for a bone now.
102. “It’s Turning back to the Torie’s”
I don’t want to be an apostrophe fascist, but ooh, that’s a bad one.
105 - cuts in departmental spending ie over 19% from 2011-2014 in order to protect schools, hospitals and increase overseas aid.
And to think all that noise over thought of 10% cuts!
Anyone having doubts about Angus Reid should remember this
Polling firm Angus Reid is crediting its use of the Internet for the most accurate polling results of the (Canadian)federal election.
The company’s last poll before the vote was virtually identical to Tuesday’s popular vote tallies for the four largest political parties…
..The Internet method tends to capture more younger voters – many of whom tend not to have traditional telephone lines and use mobile phones instead – and respondents are more likely to take the time to answer questions accurately, he added.
http://www.thestar.com/federalelection/article/518363
97.
Mike,
Ignore them, they are just PLAIN JEALOUS !!
‘Tis funny watching Tories on here-I suspect well into middle age-acting as though they’re engrossed in a riveting game of musical chairs.
If this ARS poll had shown Labour within 3 points of the Tories-which is how far out they are from most other recognized polls but the other way-they’d be ridiculed. MORI’s results were more mainstream than these.
103. “Gordon Brown = Neil Kinnock!”
As in, likely to receive 31-35% of the popular vote at the GE? I reckon you’re closer to the mark than ARS, Sunil!
98 I was at the conference on the day of the banana. They were handing out bananas at the conference entrance as part of some pressure group campaign. Fair trade I think. Saw DM pick up the offending item. I guess he is just too polite. I bet the lobbyists weren’t too happy.
BTW DM had just given a genuinely impressive performance at a hustings on Foreign policy. I expect most people here would have thought he was good. Alas, he’s unlucky.
79. It’s not a nerve James.
I’ll wait for Mike to respond. He’d have more credibility with you on this than me.
re 79. It is not odd at all as I explain in the header and has been covered in full by Anthony Wells of UKPR.
When ICM, Populus and ComRes weight by past vote they don’t do it to what actually happened last time. Rather they have a formula that assumes that more people will say they voted Labour than actually did.
So instead of the 2.9% point gap that actually happened in 2005 they are weighting to about a 6% gap.
Also a proportion of those who say they will vote but won’t say who for are allocated to the party they voted for last time.
Both these measures boost the Labour position.
ARS doesn’t do that.
106 - I think the some of the numpties at R5L are starting to see they have been conned and lied to for years. The nastiness of Ed Balls can’t make matters any worse. I’m sure Victoria Derbyshire will still be batting for the Red Team come what may.
108. And after that bloodbath the deficit will have been halved. Well done Labour, five more years!
107. Jame’s
Worry not - you will get over it !
I see Labour are “back in the game” with their +1 rise to 23%
This surely means a return of the media narrative to ‘Brown Bounce 3′ and ‘Hung Parliament’?
any worse -> any better
86
Waterproof towelling mattress! Classic. Although having just googled her, I won’t be volunteering to put it to good use
108 Oracle - cuts in departmental spending ie over 19% from 2011-2014 in order to protect schools, hospitals and increase overseas aid.
Quite. And if they had started bringing back some sanity into spending a year ago, rather than putting it off for two years and doing next to no planning even for that, the eventual cuts could have been less.
116 I still can’t believe the Ed Balls interview - what an own goal.
Peter Allen is NEVER biased IMO, and for Ed to go for him ad hominem was an epic fail.
113. Milliband can be good occasionally, but he lets himself down an awful lot too. The “it makes me SICK” speech at conference was very melodramatic and drama-queen ish. A bit like some of Kinnock’s more bizarre socialist ramblings.
I don’t doubt there’s a certain level of talent there, but he needs to be able to harness it better if he ever wants the top job.
On the Gerald Howarth snapping over Sky Sports, why was his claim for Sky Sports turned down and the Prime Minister’s allowed. Sky Sports for the few but not the many perhaps?
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/12/tory-mp-snaps-as-exes-claim-for-sky-sports-refused.html
123 Is there a link for this on iPlayer? Can’t seem to find it.
114. “I’ll wait for Mike to respond. He’d have more credibility with you on this than me.”
On one point we agree. I don’t always accept Mike’s analysis but at least he’s an objective observer, which is more than can be said for most of the ‘combatants’ on these threads - that admittedly includes me as much as anyone else, but this site is getting to the point where it’s so dominated by rabid Tories that it’s going to be a major put-off to most casual visitors (including, I suspect, many Tory-inclined ones).
121 £224.99 Dave Clelland’s robot vacuum cleaner - WTF?
£? Cleaning bill for Tommy McAvoy’s ‘full of crumbs and dirty’ sofa and carpet with ‘large spot marks and stains’
URGH - did he get it from James Purnell?
123 - I think he had his heart-broken by Tony, and ever since seems to have been critical of all politicians, regardless of the colour of their team.
122 ‘… and increase overseas aid.’
Why should this be happening if services are being cut at home?
126 Father Frinton - wind forward to about 2hrs 12 mins
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00p6v9y/5_live_Drive_09_12_2009/
122. Just imagine where we would be if the sensible fiscal policies of Labour’s first term had continued. We would have gone into the downturn with a substantial budget surplus and a very low level of net debt, and could have afforded a big fiscal stimulus without any need for harsh cuts afterwards.
Labour’s profligacy from 2001-2007 now means a decade of suffering for the most vulnerable in our society, a further increase in the already massive backlog of needed infrastructure investments, and a rise in tax levels that will do material harm to the economy in the medium term.
122. “Quite. And if they had started bringing back some sanity into spending a year ago, rather than putting it off for two years and doing next to no planning even for that, the eventual cuts could have been less.”
Better still if Labour had carried on as they did from 1997-2001 we’d still be in a mess, but a hell of a lot smaller mess than this one. But Gordon “no more boom and bust” Brown thought that the economic cycle had been abolished and we could simply borrow ourselves rich from the future. What a [very very rude word that won't pass the filters].
131 - Thanks, Plato!
131 Oops - I seem to have decided you are a holiday resort
123
Ed Balls is undoubtedly vey clever, but cleverness and political astutness don’t go hand in hand. Balls is about as loathsome as you could get.. Any advance on Balls (Brown taken for granted)
127. Give over James. As OGH has said before the supporters of the party that’s doing best shout loudest.
In eighteen months time it’ll be full of “rabid” Lefties and Marcus Woods will be the new Nick Palmer.
125 Andrew Spencer
It’s strange. The Fees Office are utterly inconsistent.
Howarth is being stupid, but at least his claim was denied. Why should I pay for Our Glorious Leader to watch Sky?
Did anyone else just have a moment when all the comments were numbered 78? Very odd.. It’s my birth year too
***anecdote***
BTW DM had just given a genuinely impressive performance at a hustings on Foreign policy. I expect most people here would have thought he was good. Alas, he’s unlucky.
by Jonathan December 10th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
DM appeared were I work to give a you’ve all done very well, rouse the troops “town hall”.
A more lacklustre speaker I have yet to witness. He is technically my boss and yet he had little to no knowledge of what we did or how we did it. He was supposed to speak for 30 minutes, petered out after about 20 then went to questions from the floor. He received a grand total of one question that was answered so badly no one else bothered.
Think he is good, no not so much.
127. Yawn….here we go again with the traditional leftie whine about the site’s political balance…
More evidence that the election campaign began yesterday. All over the news has been the message from the govt of “Tories are telling porkies. You should focus on their plans” and now Cameron has ratcheted up the rhetoric:
“David Cameron compares Brown and Darling to joy-riders smashing up the (economic) neighbourhood ”
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2009/12/david-cameron-compares-brown-and-darling-to-joyriders-smashing-up-the-economic-neighbourhood-.html
It’s all going to kick off in January clearly.
132. Snap.
I wonder if this poll’s subsamples will show Labour doing better in Scotland (and the north)
I wonder if ARS were caught on the hop by press reaction to the PBR.
Splitting the fieldwork over the PBR on a 2:1 gives us a result that is difficult (without the splits requested in ryans comment 32) to interpret. They may well show part of a larger shift towards the Tories and away from Labour in response to the media narrative on the PBR. However, this cannot yet be proved.
Whatever the figures show, it is clear that the ARS results will be out of date as soon as the ‘fully post PBR’ polls come rolling in. In the circumstances it was clever of pb/ARS to release the headline figures a day earlier than expected. Let’s hope that that ARS get their reward with some MSM coverage.
I still expect the PBR fallout to be +2 Con/-2 Lab and interpret the ARS results as pointers in that direction.
URGH - how can anyone stamp a fawn to death
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/dorset/8405586.stm
132 runnymede - Absolutely.
But at least their profligacy up to around 2008 is at least vaguely understandable, on the basis that it is all-too-human to assume the good times will last for ever. What really gets me is the fact they continued spending recklessly, and still intend to continue to spend recklessly, even after the good times came juddering to a halt and tax recepits fell off a cliff.
137. I’m being quite serious, CR. I’ve been coming to this site for about three years now, firstly as a lurker and then as a poster, and I can assure you that it’s never struck me as having a more depressing atmosphere that it does now, it’s like an in-house Tory gloating and sneering club most of the time. However, I agree that an in-house Labour gloating and sneering club would be just as bad.
In Bridge (the Game) there are 2 major suits and two minor suits.
You need 10 tricks to make game in a major suit.
You need 11 tricks to make game in a minor suit.
Same in politics, its easier to get elected to office through major party than to get elected to a minor party.
So endeth this simple lesseon. But hold on a minute!
SNP 3%: PC 1%: UKIP 7%: BNP 4%: GRN 3%,
is to me the main story coming out of the latest ARS poll.
18% for the small parties is more than is normal in British politics, thats why I think that this coming GE could be a the harbinger of a change in British voting habits.
What is intriguing, is that 40%+7% shows the real strength of Conservative support. I have also no doubt that the BNP will weaken some Labour seats that may be captured by the L/Dems
or the Tories, further eroding Labour numbers in Westminster.
Of course UKIP will also weaken some Tory seats and may be successful in one or two of them.
The main thing is that since the EU elections support for the smaller parties has stayed high or increased. Interesting dosen’t say it.
Phil Hope has today introduced me to a personally hitherto unknown accessory - the Hamburger Machine. So thanks Phil.
“I don’t always accept Mike’s analysis but at least he’s an objective observer”
That ‘objective observer’ only this morning posted this……,
“Let’s hope that once booted out (Labour) they never return”.
by Mike Smithson December 10th, 2009 at 9:22 am
137. Agreed. I suspect the whole dynamic of this site will change when the Tories become unpopular in government.
There was an interesting article a while ago (alas I forget where) during Dubya’s reign of terror that contrasted the online presence of various party supporters in the US and UK. They noted that in the US, with an unpopular right-wing party in power, it was the liberals who were ascendant in the blogosphere and elsewhere, whilst in the UK, with an unpopular left-wing party in power it was the right that was capitalizing.
I imagine that may well switch at some unspecified point over the next 4 or 5 years. They need something better than LabourList though!
141. “yawn….here we go again with the traditional leftie whine about the site’s political balance…”
And, right on cue, to prove my point…
151 Mike’s posts are objective - his comments are his personal opinion.
147 - I don’t think any government in the world saw the banking collapse as the right time to cut Govt spending.
151 Mike is objective in matters of the wallet only.
70 MTF - you write “What a load of tosh. I seem to recall you used to write that it took time for such matters to sink in to the voters consciousness” but if you read to the end of my post at 52, you’ll find: “though the effect can take a couple of days to filter through”. That’s your point, no?
Can anyone attack OGH or is there a queue..?
151. Did Mike really say that? In that case, point taken, Roger. I have noticed that Mike has been much harsher on Tim’s “nasty” comments than on the equivalent nasties from Tory posters of late. But to be fair, there’s so much of it from Tory posters that we all just get desensitised to it.
154 Mike is great, but I don’t think the posts are balanced at all.
But why should they be. He can do what he likes.
158 - I can see value in me setting up a website called
http://www.polticalbeatings.com
Just a reminder for this site:
http://ukelectiontrend.blogspot.com/
it should be noted that they don’t include ARS in their sample.
161 - http://www.politicalbeatings.com even.
re 151. I try to make the main headers as objective as possible - on the threads, however, I do occasionally express my views.
Most people will know that I’m not on the Downing Street Xmas card list again this year and I won’t be on it next year either.
Listen, guys, I know it may come as a shock, but the reason why people aren’t posting more positive stuff about Labour is this..
People don’t *like* Labour very much at the moment.
Every single poster on this site has a personal bias. They will see what they want to see and interpret it to best fit their bias. It is human nature. Additionally people like to be associated with winners, at the moment the Tories appear to be in the driving seat even if they are not actually yet in possession of the keys. If (when) the Tories start to dip then more labour supporters will come out of the woodwork as Tory supporters return to it.
It’s just life.
77 Plato
“DOUGLAS ALEXANDER claimed £105 for a chimney sweep.”
I’d have thought he could have climbed up it, and cleaned it himself!
My view on Mike’s posts is that there is the odd ‘oh not another one about subject X’ - but no outcry that the regular premise is biased.
164 - You might be if Vince is in No 11
There are more Tories with permanent bans on them than Labour posters.
Betting question.
I haven’t been watching the market closely but has there been movement in the “best pollster” market?
Current prices
YouGov 5/2
ICM 3/1
Angus Reid Strategies 3/1
Populus 9/2
Ipsos-MORI 9/2
ComRes 5/1
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=120782
159 - I prefer the halycon days earlier on in the year, when a SNP poster called me an English cockroach, for daring to comment on something that was deemed a Scottish matter.
170 Oh you’re teasing us now
I start the list with ReBranded Horse
Incidentally, I view the “best pollster” market as a bookies’ dream - but it gives a more objective opinion as to the supposed credibility of various pollsters.
164. I bet you get more cards this year that ever before, Mike.
Although this Angus Reid poll was only partly carried out after the PBR statement, it supports the view that the PBR has made little or no difference.
This is to be expected since people will only notice when/if the actual taxes they pay go up. Apart from the VAT reversal, this is many months off and post the election.
Someone being interviewed on the radio about the situation had difficulty recalling any party names but seemed to think she would vote for “the other lot” which turned out to be the LibDems. Such disinterested people are less likely to vote but those that are interested are more partisan and less likely to switch parties.
My conclusion is that averaging the polls over several months to get the biggest sample could give the best prediction for the general election result since voters opinions don’t change much over time despite events.
Mike = my hero x2 today.
Great poll, if only the PB red team had offered me any odds over the 4 days I was pre-PBR about wanting to bet about Labour polling 23% or less before 31st Jan 2010 on a UK polling reported poll - it didn’t take long.
Well played!
The Red CCF may froth a great game periodically on PB about Tory wobbles, Labour recoveries, hung parliament but when it comes to holding on to their own money, their faith in Labour is non-existent…. like the rest of us.
157 Dont be disingenous Nick, It doesn’t take a couple of days, it takes a lot longer than that. And to suggest that the ARS poll isnt finding shifting of votes one way or another on the PBR is pure unadulterated SPIN.
Sky News seem to have become paranoid in their desire to distance themselves from their colleagues at the Sun. When the surprise 20% cuts in all non-ring-fenced departments were put to him he replied, “it has to be said that this was not admitted by the Shadow Chancellor”
175 Please ban weathercock for nauseating sycophancy.
146. Digusting.
But Plato that’s feral amoral youth for you: large groups of young males often spell trouble.
I was brought up very well and when I was 17 yrs old even I was a d1ck. I got the keys to my car took my mates for a drive and drove like a total asshole. I just wanted to impress my mates.
This is what teenage males are like. You also feel invincible and invulnerable. You’re pumped full of hormones, physically and s£xually aggressive, you don’t know your place and role in the world, you want to impress and you want to show your independence from rules and you what to *prove* don’t care about anyone or anything: no-one is gonna tell you what to do now.
For those brought up with *no* moral guidance this can result in some pretty sick stuff.
This is why Sports, Cadets and Girls are such important regulators for young men.
164 - Have you received a Christmas card from Tony & Cherie? Guido got one
(Re-posted from the previous thread)
My boss has just given me an interesting task…..he wants me to go through the Staff List and identify anyone who has voted Labour, so that he can sack them. Am I allowed to do that?
172. TSE - Well, I certainly wouldn’t defend that. But for something like that to still be sticking so vividly in your mind you obviously haven’t been called names by SeanT yet! Perhaps you’ll be in line for your turn now that he’s defected to the Lib Dems. (Or has he ‘re-ratted’ already, it’s so difficult to keep track of…)
No one is obliged to respond to, or even read, every post. If you don’t think much of a particular post, skip over it and move on. There are plenty of good posts on here from a range of political perspectives. Contributions should be weighed, not counted.
183 - Yes, anyone voting Labour clearly doesn’t have the mental capacity to do the job.
“DM had just given a genuinely impressive performance”
I hope their concert on Tuesday at the O2 will be a good’un!
I’ll get me coat…
148. James: maybe don’t take “it”/yourself quite so seriously?
I’ve yet to see you make a joke/laugh at yourself/laugh at others. And I’m sure you have a sense of humour (somewhere)
Please don’t respond with “that’s just because Tories aren’t funny”.
Take my advice and lighten up. Chillax. You’ll live longer.
181 The mental image you have just conjured up of you in your Model T is just fantastic. Throbbing stuff.
155 tim - Indeed, but sensible governments hadn’t been building up structural deficits during the boom times.
The main point, though, is that it takes time to make savings. To save serious money in 2010-2011, especially without damaging the fabled ‘front-line services’, you need to start in 2008-2009. The correct response would have been to start cutting out wasteful projects, such as ID cards, the NHS IT disaster, and hundreds of smaller white elephants throughout the public sector, immediately. That would have had little or no effect on immediate demand in the economy, but would have saved money in the key recovery period 2010 onwards. Instead the numpties we’ve made the mistake of electing have actually increased medium- to long-term commitments.
Futhermore, you don’t need to inject the fiscal stimulus by spending; you can also do it via tax cuts, which can be more effective if well-targeted, and which are easier to switch on and off quickly.
James Kelly!
Remind me how many elections Kinnock won?
*** BETTING POST ***
Interesting market on Paddy Power on the Queen’s speech
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&ev_class_id=91&disp_cat_id=&ev_type_id=12510&ev_oc_grp_ids=119658
Unfortunately it’s a “first” market unlike the Ladbrokes PBR market a couple of days ago - but Afghanistan at 5/1 seems quite good value?
Re-post
Sky News seem to have become paranoid in their desire to distance themselves from their colleagues at the Sun. When the surprise 20% cuts in all non-ring-fenced departments were put to him Adam Boulton replied, “it has to be said that this was not admitted by the Shadow Chancellor”
149. “What is intriguing, is that 40%+7% shows the real strength of Conservative support.”
It shows the strength of right-wing support.
I’m going off the Conservatives already. That’s scary because they’re not even in government yet and my nickname amongst my friends is “Tory *Casino’s real name*”.
184 - SeanT is the pb equivalent of a repressed homosexual, he’s out as a Tory, then he’s back in the Labour closet, then he’s out, then he jumps back into the Lib Dem closet.
I get whiplash reading his posts these days.
Wibbler, as I noted at the time the pollster market first came out, Paddy Power have created the first loaded six-sided dice that is loaded against all six sides. A magnificent achievement.
180. … Nauseating, maybe.
……….A sycophant, never.
183 I think it is perfectly reasonable to identify the Labour voters and make them redundant.
I dont know if it is illegal but it does seem reasonable and just.
If it is illegal, it should be made legal after the next election.
Tee hee. They wont even know why they were made redundant
192 - You mean the Christmas speech?
What was it that Ed Balls said / did to make Peter Allen so cross?
63.”60 - Thats a myth, like the myth about the Tories doing less well at Xmas.”
Okay, so can we now say that the Tory figure has not been higher over last few weeks if the fieldwork is carried out during the week rather than the weekend who ever is doing the polling?
Also, has the Tory lead dropped among the monthly trackers this month?
196 antifrank
It’s not so hard - the correct option is the same as in Global Thermonuclear War.
199 - Accused him of political bias and did the whole “talking the country down” rubbish.
200 - Balls moved his lips…usually it is enough to upset anyone.
200 - He accused Peter Allen of talking down the economy.
199 The Screaming Eagles
Yes
Most of my posts tend to be about the press or politics, though I am a gambler with accounts with most of the bookies and will post when I have an opinion on a price.
I have never hidden the fact that I am who I am, do what I do, and have the opinion that I do. I have posted here for a number of years (Mike could say when my first post was) but I will still post when the Tories are the evil empire.
I would be surprised if too many of the regular poster left after the election, whatever happens. Maybe I will avoid Mr Crosby if there is swingback for a week or two
But those of us in the “Tory Herd” who have expressed some reservations about Mr Cameron should be given more leeway than those of us who think he can do no wrong!
190 - Most similar economies to ours, Germany France and Italy for example had bigger structural deficits than ours, partly because they had a recession eight years ago that we avoided.
Japan of course cut spending in a recession which prolonged it massively and had the effect of making their debt worse.
Views on the NHS IT project are mixed, but people die every day in this country while paper medical notes are carted around by taxi between hospitals and GP’s.
184
I can’t really bring myself to criticize SeanT’s apostasy on Wayne’s World Wobble night, his heart is usually in the right place, even if his d*ck isn’t.
201 Is it true that peaks in Tory polls correlate with ancient pagan festivals celebrating the underworld?
Maguire does some work and mentions ARS:
http://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire
ICM is the best poll for longer term trends but the last poll by all polling organisations in 2005 showed Mori & YouGov closer to real result than ICM and all polling organisations over-estimated Labour and, except for Mori, under-estimated Conservatives.
Actual Labour lead was 3% in GB - Mori & YouGov had it at 5%, ICM & Populus at 6% and ComRes at 8%. The two which didn’t adjust closer than the three who do, the internet pollster better than all telephone pollsters except Mori.
“Correct” the ARS poll on basis of average incorrect bias on the last polls (meaningless playing with figures I know) and it would be Cons 39%, Labour 25%, Lib Dems 19% - would those critical above find that unlikely?
181. Girls? What are girls??
146, stuff like that really angers me. I hope the truth comes out, and if they’re guilty they get what’s coming to them.
212 Thus speaks a man who went to Imperial college.
201 - Its a myth.
184. *Everyone* has been called names by Sean T at some point.
Literally: everyone.
172. TSE: one of the principal reasons I remain a Unionist is to irritate the Nits.
200. He didn’t have to say anything, Allen tried to make a basic point and Balls went for him very personally, that made Allen very angry and he started attacking back. Balls has that affect on people, he can’t debate the points, all he can do is be rude and obnoxious.
165: ‘…the reason why people aren’t posting more positive stuff about Labour is this.. People don’t *like* Labour very much at the moment.’
And let’s face, what the hell could a Labourite post that would be of any interest to anyone? Labour’s answers to the great problems of the economy, foreign affairs, cynicism in politics? No one gives a fig about Labour’s views and most sensible Labourites realize this and have the good grace to keep quiet. Why, these days even the indefatigable tim, whom I actually rather admire, has been reduced to basing his material on such monumental subjects as Kirstie Allsopp! Labour is redundant.
205. “200 - He accused Peter Allen of talking down the economy.”
It’s a shame that so few complained about talking up the economy, flogging houses to one another and borrowing too much money, during the last decade or so.
216 - He’s never called me some names.
I’m a unionist purely because we the English need Scotlands oil revenues, and plus I was born in Edinburgh
212. Trainspotter!!
Seriously, blokes need to get their end away (regularly) and a girl to relax them.
And… *there* - I’ve summarised the problems of Islamic culture in one sentence.
I’m starting to wish I had put money earlier on Balls losing his seat. If the local press get an interview with him he’ll lose for sure based on the last 36 hours.
Another ARS poll and no change since the last one. As before they disagree with every other pollster on the Labour vs Others numbers. They may be right and everyone else wrong, but its understandable that the media is treating their polls as rogues. The fact that they are commissioned by a website populated mainly by Tory frothers can’t help - media types read the comments here and perhaps think there is a bit of ARS delivering what its audience wants to hear going on.
The trend is the interesting bit - and it no change. No immediate negative reaction to the PBR.
217, I always remember his fracas with IDS on the Daily Politics during one conference or another (I think). IDS looked like he was tempted to knock Balls’ lights out, and rightly so.
209. Yep, Tories have horns too, just like jews.
You aren’t named tim by any chance.
214. Jonathan
No need to “rub” it in!
Woot. PBC has been UNBARRED.
Yeah, that’s right cockbiscuits. I’m back.
Cookie - he also accused Allen of being politically biased - serious no-no.
Listen to it - for a floating voter, it was a total car crash.
207, tim, views on the NHS IT project are most certainly not mixed. It is perhaps the biggest IT disaster this country has ever seen. Only the most partisan Labour supporters (paging Nick Palmer, MP) would make even a token effort to defend it.
Sure, we need good IT systems in the NHS for patient records, etc. No-one doubts that. But this project is a national disgrace which, even by the pitiful standards of the Blair-Brown government, is an almost unprecedented waste of public money.
220. Lol!
True. Sean T has calmed down a lot since oooh… around 18 months to 2 years ago?
There was a time when if he disagreed with you *at all* you’d get insulted - but always in a deliciously original and amusing way!
79 We know of an identified methodological difference between ARS polls and others, namely spiral of silence and false vote recall.
It is not clear which is the right approach in terms of predictive accuracy, because we haven’t seen a controlled test against a large-scale event. But we do understand where the discrepancy may arise.
It’s also possible that other factors could reduce accuracy. If you polled 1,000 people and 230 said they’d vote Labour, it could be that 30 of them are Labour postal voting fraudsters. What the poll ought to do is count their votes as being worth more than 1. So rather than giving them a 23% share, it would be more than that - but how much more would depend on how many votes the average Labour vote fraudster steals, fabricates, misappropriates or otherwise controls.
221 - I think the problems of Islamic culture would be stopped overnight, if someone explained to them that 72virgins might not be female.
221. Actually I just thought up a brilliant “excuse” for station photography!
It goes something like this: “Oh, I’m bored! There’s nothing for young* people to do around here!”
(* Ok, so I’m 34 but it’s not “old”!)
221. Meant to say “regulate” them - not relax them. Suppose it amounts to the same thing though.
83. He looks like he’s touching cloth in that photo.
Definite case of the turtle’s head.
Can I just add my name to those who haven’t been insulted by SeanT yet?
227. Fan-f*cking-tastic.
Let the bells ring out loud from Quentin Davies’ Tower!!
227, were you banned? Or at work? Or away from the interweb?
232. Or how about a 72-year old virgin….
236. Oi! Stop trying to prove me wrong!
one for tim - seems like our politicos have teamed up with a far right party
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2009/12/labours-unsavoury-allies-part-three.html
Party leader Ján Slota appears to have a particular problem with Hungarians, declaring them a “tumour in the body of the Slovak nation” and “ugly, bow-legged, Mongoloid characters on disgusting horses”. He has also charmingly declared that “we [Slovaks] will sit in our tanks and flatten Budapest” if ethnic Hungarians assert their authority in the Slovakia.
Gypsies, Slota claims, should be dealt with in “a small courtyard and with a long whip” and refused to apologise for describing the Roma as “race who steal, rob and pilfer” on the grounds that “at least half of the nation think the same way”.
Slota has also praised the country’s fascist dictator Jozef Tiso (hanged in 1945) as “one of the greatest sons of the Slovak nation” and dedicated a plaque to him whilst Mayor of the city of Zilina. Homosexuality, he argues, is equivalent to paedophilia.
227 - That’s better news than a poll showing a Tory lead of 17%
229 - I had a quiet pint with a very intelligent IT professional a little while back, who a couple of years ago was paid a crazy amount of money to trouble shoot just a same part of the system.
Monkeys the lot of them, was the comment that stood out. He said it was the biggest disaster he had ever witnessed in the whole of his career. At the time he doubted it would ever get finished properly, looks like he was right.
240 MOE
You go into a market, fresh with your own thoughts and creative ideas confronted by a bunch of hopeless nutters.
Spend a day in a vibrant market and in the end you become as nutty as the rest.
It’s a bit like that here on pb.com. Spend enough tim e here and you become convinced that the result of the next GE will be as follows.
CON 499
UKIP 001
SNP 050
James Kelly has a valid point and one I have made several times.pb.com may seriously damage your wealth.
On a related point….My name has been used to decry JK. I had a very minor tiff with him over a very esoteric point.
I quite like James Kelly and his battles with ChristinaD are epic. If those two booked a room it would have to be on PPV !
just a same part -> just a small part
229. “It is perhaps the biggest IT disaster this country has ever seen.”
I remember when the project first started to appear in Computer Weekly. The widespread reaction at the time was ‘fill your boots’. It was considered a particularly tasty gravy train from day one, and I’m not at all surprised that it has turned out to be a right old mess.
“There are more Tories with permanent bans on them than Labour posters”
Only another 400 to go and we’ll have parity.
232. Only Russell Brand can claim to have achieved that.
Let them meet women and f**k each other senseless. We’re all human beings for Christs sake.
Then they’ll be NO MORE suicide bombings - I promise you.
Is there a free-love movement in the Muslim world?
Awww, shucks guys and gals, you’re too kind…
246 - If those two booked a room it would have to be on PPV !
Are you trying to say we’re all like Jacqui Smith’s husband?
tim - do you think Merkel and Sarko would want to swap places with us? I’m afraid it’s time to admit that New labour has been a disaster and the left won’t recover until it does.
231 - I worry Sean is using his creativity more on his novels than abusing his fellow PBC posters.
The SWINE!
244. Heard that from someone I know who worked in the NHS, she said it was a complete mess and would never run. She wasn’t closely involved, but the amount of stuff she heard from the people who were was enough.
245. Ministry of EXAGGARATION.
250 - I used to lead a one man muslim free love movement in my youth. But these days I’ve settled down.
@249:
“Lefties: too mundane to bother banning since 2005″
251. Football Chant: “We love Mart’n Coxall.. WE DO!! Ohhh, Mart’n Coxall - WE LUVE YOUU!!!”
111 Roger
Find me one example of a Tory-leaning poster welcoming a Tory-favouring rogue as accurate, and then dismissing a Labour-favouring one as a rogue.
You’ll struggle.
257. Love it TSE. Love it
188. “I’ve yet to see you make a joke/laugh at yourself/laugh at others. And I’m sure you have a sense of humour (somewhere)”
Oh God, am I really going to have to trawl through the threads finding examples of me making jokes? Perhaps I will in a minute, I’ve got a couple of all-time favourites. Perhaps that’s why, from memory, both Bobajob and Seth O Logue have commended me on my sense of humour - Seth within the last couple of weeks.
So why has all this gone completely unnoticed by you, CR? Just a guess, but I’m thinking you might be one of those people that only notices humour if it’s ideologically pure. Those are the real bores.
Now, appreciation of comments about Gordon Brown being retarded, having one eye, etc. may be a first step towards a life full of joy and laughter, but it is only the first step. If you get stuck there, it’s no use at all.
244, 255
NHS IT>?
Asked my GP about it 2001-2. (he’s computer literate and numerate)
His comments:
1. They had not been consulted as GPs.
2. The system would not interface with their own systems in use in most GP practises.
3. The people in charge were w#nkers.
I decided there and then it would be an abject failure.
Shows the competence of Civil Servants and Minsters…
Bad joke time:
Q. What do you call a Scottish football club when they convert to Islam?
A. Hibs-ut-Tahrir!
I’ll get me coat….
Meanwhile at White City…
Brown’s toilet claims, Kitty’s kitchen and Jack’s nicely rounded food claims don’t get a look in.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8406013.stm
The thing that is so annoying with the NHS IT scheme isn’t just the money wasted it is,
a) something like that is required, albeit not necessarily with some massive central records DB etc. Not having local electronic records and having different hospital computers system not being able to communicate to one another is frankly stone-age stuff.
and
b) the task really isn’t that earth shattering. Lots of major international companies have more far complex systems. Yes the scale is huge and a lot of training would be required, but they haven’t even managed to get a proper working system.
127 Wee Jimma Kelly wrote: this site is getting to the point where it’s so dominated by rabid Tories that it’s going to be a major put-off to most casual visitors
The noo.
You know, James, that’s exactly how I feel about the BBC.
208 “Most similar economies to ours, Germany France and Italy for example had bigger structural deficits than ours, partly because they had a recession eight years ago that we avoided.” Even if true which is always doubtful with Tim our structural deficit is now heading way north of theirs
“Japan of course cut spending in a recession which prolonged it massively and had the effect of making their debt worse.” This is of course not true, what happened was japan did lots of QE and fiscal stimulus, didn’t stop it fast enough and built up enourmous debt, which they tried to reduce eventually as so much money was being wasted on debt interest but haven’t yet been able to as the economy is now effectively dependent on stimulus.
“Views on the NHS IT project are mixed, but people die every day in this country while paper medical notes are carted around by taxi between hospitals and GP’s.”
And it would have been much better to create a centralised standard for interoperability that allowed local variances on top of that standard, instead of tying everyone in to some centralised contracts.
262. James: I’m heading home now but (do me a favour?) find me a joke won’t you?
Just post one joke on here. Go on: just one joke.
JUST *ONE*.
Because I can’t remember seeing any and I desperately want to believe that you’re something more than just a chippy embittered angry Scotsman who’s going to frown himself into an early grave before he hits 50.
Please. Help me out.
262 Mr Kelly - TBH I skip straight by your comments late at night as they seem to be rather confrontational/last word-ish.
I can’t really recall any funnies either - happy to be pointed to a selection of guffaws, but it’s clearly not just an impression one poster here has.
Right, Lindsay Hoyle’s a man right?
Lindsay Hoyle - Submitted receipt for shopping in May 2008 including £9.99 for a mixed plant trough and £14.18 for two packets of Tampax, plus various other items including a £3.79 rotisserie chicken and £2.79 leafy rocket salad
Tampax??? What is a grown man doing with tampax?
Even someone as perverted as me, doesnt know what he’d be doing with that. Do I want to know?
151. “Let’s hope that once booted out (Labour) they never return”.
by Mike Smithson December 10th, 2009 at 9:22 am
How is that not an objective comment? You’re looking at a poll which says 77% agree with him.
from the BBC link at 265,
“…David Cameron - Was written to by Commons authorities about receipt missing from his claim. Receipt was provided. A Tory spokesman said that was the end of the matter….”
It’s true you really can hear a barrel being scraped on the internet.
One for Nick Palmer, I think. He’s good at languages:
Großbritannien schrumpft zur Mini-Macht
Vom Boomland zum Krisenkandidaten: Großbritannien steht vor den Trümmern seines jahrelangen Aufschwungs. Bald könnte die vormalige Musterwirtschaft sogar aus den Top Ten der größten Ökonomien fallen - überholt von seiner ehemaligen Kolonie Indien.
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/0,1518,666166,00.html#ref=top
The Screaming Eagles - I know some men who buy them for their own use. You really do not want to know why.
271. TSE. What? You mean you don’t.. SHOVE TAMPAX UP YOUR ARSE?
265, apparently this is ‘eye-catching’:
David Cameron - Was written to by Commons authorities about receipt missing from his claim. Receipt was provided. A Tory spokesman said that was the end of the matter
273 - Surprised they didn’t mention the chocolate bars.
Daily Rant scrapped it some more, he claimed for oil apparently. S##t no, claiming for fuel bills, isn’t that what ACA is for?
271, he could be a berdache[sp].
271 Perhaps he has some strange fetish shared with Phil Woolas ?
170 That’s because there are more Tories Mike.
Also, Labour supporters are moral incompetents and failed human beings on so many levels that probably many of them simply can’t read or write.
In Scotland 1 in 5 is illiterate. They’re not going to be Tories, are they? They’re going to be Labour.
If you gave them computers, they would fuse from all the drool.
“..Tampax??? What is a grown man doing with tampax?..”
Perhaps he is making an escape and evasion kit for when the angry torch bearing villagers come to get him for his expense abuses.
280 - The dangers of sharing…. No I’ll stop
253 - No idea.
France and Germany have higher debt and unemployment rates don’t they?
Anyone want to see my bell tower?
275 - I cant stop thinking about it now
276 - No, cant say I have, I’ll go check out my home recordings to make sure.
274. Babelfish: “Great Britain shrinks to mini Mach. From the boom country to the crisis candidate: Great Britain stands before the rubble of its upswing for many years. Soon the former model economy could fall even from the Top Ten of the largest [Economies] - India overhauls from its former colony.”
276 I worked with someone who used them for Irritable Bowel Syndrome runs.
Not the sort of conversation I was expecting when enquiring how they felt
Was Straw asked about his expenses on The News….pause I thought not.
285 - Ding Dong!
285 - Can I ring it as well?
The BBC picked a really stupid time to have the Wooton Bassett QT. PBR, Copenhagen, and expenses all in one week - and they decide to make Afghanistan the focus?
285 - Not until the guttering is fixed.
149 : weathercock @ 17:18
“In Bridge (the Game) there are 2 major suits and two minor suits.
You need 10 tricks to make game in a major suit.
You need 11 tricks to make game in a minor suit.
Same in politics, its easier to get elected to office through major party than to get elected to a minor party.”
But you only need 9 tricks in No Trumps!
181. This is why Sports, Cadets and Girls are such important regulators for young men.
Now let’s be inclusive here Casino. What about Islam? That’s important too. After all, without the comfort of their religion many young men would simply explo–
Oh.
It is too soon to tell if this reflects a view on the PBR. Usually it takes five to ten days to be sure that a significant event is reflected in the polls.
Every pollster is like any actor, only as good as their last performance.
Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance. Every pollster whether new or old, cannot assume to be accurate as a forecaster of the general election. Few, if any, would claim to be able to do so this far out. Angus R is as likely, as an experienced pollster with a good track record elsewhere, to be as right or wrong as any other the others.
After all the piste is a very different one to the previous three elections demographically, socially and technologically.
224. Ian Bailey. Angus Reid are applying for membership of the BPC and I sincerely doubt OGH would have joined forces with them if they were in any way biased politically. No pollster worth their salt would skew their polls towards their readership. Now I think the ARS are probably a bit out in these polls but that criticism is just clutching at straws.
188. You’ll live longer.
He might make it to 25. That’s old in Smackistan.
270. “but it’s clearly not just an impression one poster here has.”
That’s rather like the commentaries that say “it has been observed…” Who has observed it? Well, the person who said “it has been observed” mainly…
“Mr Kelly - TBH I skip straight by your comments late at night as they seem to be rather confrontational/last word-ish.”
TBH I’m less of fan than I was as well, Plato. Might be to do with all the smug abbreviations, TBH. And if that sounds rather confrontational, FFS get a sense of humour yourself, LOL.
Now, Ms Plato, I was going to restrict myself to my two favourite ‘funnies’, but now you want a ’selection’? Perhaps in the same spirit you could direct me to some of your own? Excluding the ones that have something to do with AWG (sic) as the punchline, they don’t count.
294 You dont even need that if you are 80 below before the next hand.
277 - The two paoer stories seem to be the bell tower and the garlic peelers.
The man who should be in trouble is the Shadow Culture Secretary. His offences broke all the rules.
But he’s Daves Mate, so he won’t be.
@290/291: Grab an end an peel away.
We have a Mickey Moouse budget so the people are thinking of putting in a government led by Donald Duck and chancellor Goofy
Australia House must be doing good business!
271 A Nurse friend tells me some men have a use for tampax.
Lets say, its a similar use that women have.
265 dr spyn, WTF?
‘Lembit Opik - Paid electrician from his Welsh constituency to travel 418 miles to deal with emergency electrical problems at London flat. Same firm made second 316 mile visit to MP’s home to replace light switches and rewire lights. The cost of the two jobs totalled £1,791.52′
Reading between the polling lines Conservatives do seem to be nailed on for at least 40% so long as they keep the momentum up and have a half decent campaign. Indeed it would not be unreasonable to deduce that with a good campaign they would be pushing above 40% and upwards. Labour are down somewhere at the 25% to 30% mark and think they will be coming in at 28 to 29% max on the day. Liberals on about 19%.
Come on people, let’s not be grumpy Gordons.
Last one to be nice is a domestic servant!
@301:
In the court of public opinion, trying to claim twenty grand for a BELL TOWER makes you an utter nobber.
And that’s what matters.
299 I rest my case. Mr Kelly, feel free to skip by mine too.
@304:
It’s used for widening the urethra for the purposes of sounding.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=sounding
305.
“The cost of the two jobs totalled £1,791.52′”
These look like Cheeky Bills to me
But hasn’t Lembit been giving support to the larger sizes recently?
308 - It does.
And Hunts defence that he’s as thick as pig shit also makes hin a nobber.
308 Don’t forget £500 to have your summer house repainted.
Ferfuxsake
Sir Stuart Bell, who sits on the Commons members’ estimate committee, discusses the embarrassing new revelations and appeals to David Cameron to stop ‘playing politics’ with MPs’ expenses
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/video/2009/dec/10/mps-expenses
312 - Loosing your ‘cool’ there young Tim, stick to Osborne if I were you.
@312:
You can’t stay mad at Jeremy for long. He’s like an ickle puppy.
Seen on Waugh’s blog - You know Arsenal has the Clock End? Does Quentin Davies’ Frampton Hall have a Bell End?
310. Ouch.
It’s a pity Blair’s expenses got shredded. You just know they contained so much comedy potential
274 Richard - that would eb the article referred to here..
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2009/12/the-word-from-germany-thanks-to-brown-britain-is-now-an-economic-minipower.html
Which basically says that the Germans think we are a busted flush.
312 And yet he’s an an elected politician, whilst you’re simply a keyboard warrior sniping ad nauseum from the sidelines of the internet. Who’s the stupid one tim?
The belltower brings to an end an outstanding vintage for political scandals. 2009 will be remembered by us all with misty eyes for years to come. We’ll bore the young uns with stories of bathplugs and wreaths, of duck houses and hobnobs. The next Parliament has had a high standard set for it. It is too much to hope that it can generate such good stories.
316. No, but Man City do.
This is not a bad country. I have just been out for a magnificent lunch - oysters; razor claims (navajas for the Spanish amongst us); squid; turbot; the finest chips with delicious mayonnaise; and a selection of English cheeses. A variety of wines as well. Can life get much better? The answer is: only if one could take a cigar with a glass of 12 year old Macallan. Frankly, it all brings out the Tory in me. Let them eat cake …
Mr McCrory does seem to be enjoying Labour’s expenses - not sure that a 40p claim for the Daily Mail is worth a tweet though
“Expenses latest: Labour MP Lynda Waltho claimed 40p for a copy of the Daily Mail”
301.
“the bell tower ….. offences broke all the rules.”
But it’s always been a Major Tory parliamentary policy to sustain the re-enforcement of monumental ericshuns
321. I’m sure it will manage to be entertaining. I am voting for them, but after all, let’s be honest, Tory MPs are always entertaining!
294. I left NT out of it. Why sully the message?
314/5 - At least Osborne managed to get the outside of his own house jetwashed.
Imagine how many villages Hunt would’ve done before he finally got the right one.
298. “He might make it to 25. That’s old in Smackistan.”
God, if that’s the kind of sense of humour I need to help me live longer, pass me the Bobby Davro DVD. Sadly, I’ll never see 25 again.
Anyway, the two favourites I had in mind -
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/11/05/have-punters-got-labours-chances-about-right/#comment-835405
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/05/23/vote-green-to-stop-the-bnp/#comment-1073838
Points West headline 400 jobs on the line at a military repair base.
324 or even £6.99 on bog roll…
Would someone give him a slap?
324.
“Lynda Waltho claimed 40p for a copy of the Daily Mail”
presumably a genuine business expense if she could honestly claim that nothing in the world would get her to buy the rag if it were it not for a particular constituency interest on the day?
The Clock End was at the Highbury Library.
294/327 - Is there any websites out there, that can teach me how to play bridge.
All I know about bridge is that it’s a bit like your sex life, if you haven’t got a good partner, let’s hope you’ve got a good hand.
@333:
“The clock end” is Lord Mandelson’s nickname for how he acquired a quarter of a million pound watch from a gay billionaire.
332
Was it because the House of Commons ran out of toilet roll?
Toby Helm asks
Will Quentin Davies’s clanger hurt Labour?
With the election coming, each gem in the latest list of expenses fiddles is being judged according to which party it may damage most
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/dec/10/will-quentin-davies-hurt-labour
309. “Mr Kelly, feel free to skip by mine too.”
Plato, the invitation wasn’t strictly necessary, but I’m glad you’re not offended if I carry on doing what I’ve been doing.
re 208 tim got any evidence for that assertion, and how many people die waiting for notes?
Mixed? I’ve never heard anyone have any good words for the IT project. Most meetings it;s treated as a joke as it becomes clear that it doesn’t do what it was intended to do and will be months if not years late. And that applies to every little adaptation of the system.
The Screaming Eagles, I recommend bridge to any couple that wants to have weekly arguments about something unimportant. It’s best to learn through a local club; I’m sure the naice areas of Cheshire will have one. And you’ll feel very young.
tim The thing that must really get on your wick is that you are obviously an intellectual giant. Yet you are confined to a stinky bedroom existing on incapacity benefit ranting to an amused audience on the internet. At the same time a man who is as thick as pig shit has managed to far exceed anything you have ever done. There is no justice in the world.
That’s really got to hurt the old ego.
Overheard in House of Commons Bar.
Grayling “There he is Jeremy, go and ask him”
Hunt “OK….George, how did you get your house to the jet wash”
284. France and Germany haven’t got higher levels of debt for long. One of New Labour legacies will be the approximate doubling of national debt in % GDP terms. The catastrophic personal debt issue is even more significant. As for unemployment, we hide our figures under incapacity benefit. About 2.5m?
334.
“bridge is that it’s a bit like your sex life”
Not like Marriage then?
A weak contract where no one gives a monkeys about your bidding?
Ooops, Callme Khammereon promises a non-existent subsidy for matrimony does he not?
Frankly, it all brings out the Tory in me. Let them eat cake …
by Southam Observer December 10th, 2009 at 6:15 pm
You mean it brings out the New Labour in you. Tories can’t be seen to even think about such things.
Mandleson probably eats that way daily as he waves his 25 grand watch about while Prescott eats the table cloth.
340 - Thanks AntiFrank, I’ll have a look out.
172. TSE , I remember the “cockroach” part , but a bit hazier as to the “English” part , however assume since it has been burned indelibly on your psyche that you may recall it better than myself. It was said with the best of intentions at the time and I hope that you can forgive me after all this time.
306 - MG I think you’re right. It appears that the firmer Tory support is around the 39-40% mark. The support up to 43% (and even the 45% we saw a couple of times) is much softer. I suspect that is the still-swinging support for them. Labour have moved up and I think ARS might have them too low, but they are still some distance behind. The LibDems seem to be marooned on the 1/5 of the population.
It appears that there is a good 5-7% of the population still up for grabs. It’s where they go that will be interesting…
342 tim - That’s better!
Toenails banging on about the number of MPs retiring. Next Parliament will be very inexperienced.
Then ‘efficiency’ savings, not cuts.
I have been part of Bridge4s where I was the only one of four who hadn’t murdered anybody recently and I am proud to relate that they were all terrified of me !
341.
“At the same time a man who is as thick as pig shit has managed to far exceed anything you have ever done”
I have never seen tim compare himself to Khamereon. Does anyone have the link?
345 witan, Prescott would be too busy scuttling the maid in the pantry to eat.
One little upside in the polls for Labour and the LDs is that if the Greens only put up 200 candidates (like last time) then their voters will have to gravitate to another party.
347 - It’s ok, I know we all get hot under the collar occasionally. These things hapen.
I value your contributions to this site, your comments have definitely broadened my knowledge on the make up of the SNP, having previously viewed it as some sort of left wing party.
337.
“Will Quentin Davies’s clanger hurt Labour?”
Will abused sheep fly home to roost?
URW, I’ve read that Agatha Christie. You’re Colonel Despard.
350 - I think it would be a good time for Toenails to retire along with them!
337 - TSE - Apparently not. Davies will hurt the Tories. Mind you in Toby’s world everything is bad for the Tories. It’s like the Malcolm reverse effect…
“Yes Davies is now Labour. But until he defected in 2007 he was a Tory and, although very pro-European, very much a knight of the shire type Conservative.
To the public I reckon this will seem like yet another well-off old-school type MP making hay.
Because Davies looks and sounds like a Tory I wonder if it will hurt Labour at all.”
324 - A Labour MP claiming for the Daily Rant, whatever next, claiming for a copy of the Sun?
270. plato, at least James has something interesting to say unlike yourself. I doubt you skipping his posts will cause him any concern. Stick to posting dribble rather than commenting on people who make real posts.
ITV news intro not good for Darling/Labour.
ITV going for IFS line of 20% cuts in most department.
And lots of shots of Brown saying “Labour investment versus Tory Cuts
I think I said this about the last ARS poll but I’ll say it again.
The figures ARS is producing actually seem to me the most plausible of any pollster: Labour very unpopular; Tories not exactly idolized; very high support for Others. I think the assumption that the said Others will die away to their standard level of support in the GE is unfounded. Much of the population is in a state of high indignation towards mainstream politicians.
With that said, of course it’s an issue - a big one - that ARS is so out of step with its rivals. But I wouldn’t write it off.
353. Good point. We need to know how many candidates each of the minor parties have standing.
281. I presume from your post that you live in Scotland and are a top member of the 1 in 5 club. Though I doubt you could actually reach the level of being illiterate.
361 - Is it ever these days? It must be a weird world if ITV is your main station (not that it includes many people), wake up to GMTV gently massaging Gordo and friends and have your tea / go to bed with the Brady and the gang going mental on them.
344. Who the heck is “Callme Khammereon”?
Sounds like something out of Star Wars.
Ashchurch depot repairs armoured vehicles, and jobs may go. Work would be shifted to Donnington.
Claim that site would be closed, sold off as part of an efficiency savings. So will closure mean delays shifting equipment out to Afghanistan? Or are the MoD trying it on?
367.
“Sounds like something out of Star Wars.”
Well he does have loads of ‘inner space’ between the ears!
345 - Peter does not smoke Montecristo No. 2.
367 - Best not to engage with the absurd narcissist. He usually disappears after about 10 minutes when mummy tells him his supper is ready.
re 362 have they got Balls ringing up to have a rant at them then? I know that I’ll be saving the good stuff for the Redditch result, but I might reserve the second best for the Morley one after that interview.
“It’s best to learn through a local club; I’m sure the naice areas of Cheshire will have one.2
Let’s hope no-one starts showing you their home videos.
356 antifrank. Back in the 80s I used to play Bridge with old time gangsters and villains from the East End and N.London.
Frequently I used to be ‘haystacked’ (rhyming slang for an inveterate kibbittzer*) by a notorious psychopath who just happened to be an idiot savant.
I was a fair player, no more, but by far the best in show.
Now and again, but very rarely, this notorious killer would point out errors in my play. He was always right…and anyway, who was I to argue !
Another time this same guy played draughts with an acknowledged champion and slaughtered him (figuratively not literally). Later I asked this champion if he had let his opponent win on diplomatic grounds.
He shook his head vigorously and we were alone at the time.
*kibbitzer = watcher.Most commonly used in chess circles. It isn’t a compliment or an insult either. A ‘daubitzer’ is a kibbitzer’s sidekick and to be called a daubitzer is an insult.
360 Charming as ever
354. TSE Thank you.
370 Southam Observer, truly a fine cigar. Would it be a ‘Torpedo’?
O/T The failed Russian Bulava SLBM has produced some fantastic pictures over Norway.
Must have been an eerie sight at the time.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1234773/The-answer-mystery-Norways-spiral-light-display-Was-failed-Russian-Bulava-missile-test.html
When i first saw “Khammereon” i thought it was a very poor spelling of an Iranian Politician.
Peter does not smoke Montecristo No. 2.
by Southam Observer December 10th, 2009 at 6:35 pm
Clintonian excuse.
O/T.
Kirsti Allsopps Homemade Christmas, the Marie Antoinette/QVC crossover epic tonight does food.
Last night, conscious of these tough times, Kirstie got expensive foods, extra virgin olive oils, cinnamon, coconut cream and exotic fruits ..and turned them into soap.
Lets hope tonight she can teach us how to make gold leaf chutney.
381 But was he wearing a blue dress at the time
I use the word “kibbitzer”, but it has the same negative connotation for me as “backseat driver”, given the tendency of kibbitzers to be wise after the event.
The best partner I ever had at bridge was a serious gambler from Chester. He taught me that a bit of calculated wildness can reap big rewards.
375. Plato, You have to be, my pet hate is people berating posters etc, everbody writes some stuff that is worth reading as well as some rubbish, and admittedly some err to the rubbish side. It is still very interesting to read varied opinions and broaden your horizons, too many people on here are very fixated on their own narrow views. Plus if you give it out you need to accept a good whacking in return.
OT Amusing traffic on my blog visitors - lots of enquiries for Alistair Darling ‘Santa’ images
377 - Indeed - a sublime pleasure, especially with a glass of Calvodos Domfrontais. I recommend it heartily. But always bite off the tip, no cutters please.
384. Well said.
381 - Hello poor people, let’s pretend you can have Christmas like me …
384.
“if you give it out you need to accept a good whacking in return.”
This is known as the John O law (see 371). Poor bloke can’t even find the on-line dictionary to define the big words he uses.
But of course a good many Tories (not just their MPs) will pay heavy bucks for a fine spanking so you don’t know whether to feed his bile.
386, SO, as a non smoker why?
381.tim, I thought of you this week when I watched a bunch of kids having lots of fun making edible Christmas decorations and then eating them. For a guy who has kids, you do seem to be on a bender to do down anyone who might be trying to get us into the Christmas spirit.
What is your problem with Kirsty, is it cos she is posh, Tory, on C4, or all three?
384 Mr mG - I seem to recall that several other posters on this site said in the last couple of days that my posts entertaining and informative.
PB is broad church and long may that last
388 - Liberty’s Egalite Fraternity’s !
379.
“When i first saw “Khammereon” i thought it was a very poor spelling of an Iranian Politician.”
When I first When I first saw Khammereon I thought it was a very poor imitation of an Anglo-Scots Politician.
386. Thanks for your post , encouraged me to google and have a pleasant 5 minutes reading about Calvados Domfrontais, I shall try it on your recommendation.
381,388 For gods sake the pair of you how can you get offended at Kirstie allsop doing admittedly an expensive “home made” christmas. At worst it gives people some ideas that are out of their price range, maybe they will find cheaper replacements. To be honest you look a little pathetic.
392 –,PB is broad church and long may that last
Well said Plato, and keep on exposing those global cooling deniers.
In fact, feel free to expose anything you wish
390 - No inhaling, just enjoy the dance around your mouth. Viva Cuba!
397 - Agreed
388.How sad, years ago when my kids were little, I used to make the Christmas table decorations myself and I am no arty earth mother type. It turned out to be a lot of fun, and everyone liked it, particularly the kids. Still try to do it even now, and the most treasured Christmas decorations on my tree every year are those ones made by my kids when they were younger.
395 - It is magnificent. A sheer pleasure. But not as good as the Macallan. Or Talisker, for that matter.
381 Fancy that tim. It’s sounds as if Kirsty is broadcasting from the kitchen of the Blair’s Buckinghamshire mansion, or ‘Weekend cottage’ as they prefer to describe it.
Does Cherie make an appearance, tiara on head, picking diamond crumbs from between her teeth with a platinum toothpick, and saying ‘Let them eat Swan?’
397.
“keep on exposing those global cooling deniers.”
You have a stocking fetish maybe? Have you seen Plato’s legs in the flesh?
398, my apologies was not clear, why bite, not cut?
400 Oh - coat-hanger Christmas decorations!!! And paper-chains!!
391 - I made ginger and cinnamon biscuits with my children on sunday, we’ll hang them on the tree this week.
NOT TURN THEM INTO SOAP TO BEAT THE F~CKING RECESSION YOU COUNTRY LIFE VERSION OF IMELDA MARCOS (IF IMELDA MARCOS HAD EATEN NON STOP FOR A F~CKING DECADE)
Does that answer your question?
391. Christina, I am with Tim on Kirsty, but due to her being a smug nauseatingly annoying person , and posh even though I do not normally have a problem with most posh people, just a small minority and she is one.
323: Southam Observer @ 18:15
“… Can life get much better? The answer is: only if one could take a cigar with a glass of 12 year old Macallan. ”
And which bunch of jumped-up, incompetent clowns decided that you, a grown man, should not be allowed to take a cigar, even in a private club where all the staff are confirmed forty-a-day men?
403 I wear dolphin friendly stockings
393.Plato, hear hear.
406 - “You” being the Allsopp-Property-Ramper, not “you” Christina.
tim, have you blown all your benefit on wife beater? You seem a little “emotional”
406 It certainly answers a question about your mental state.
392. Plato, I totally agree, when you are not in you pontificating mode, especially against James. He does get a bit excited at times but generally his posts are very good and he has an excellent grasp of Scottish Politics.
antifrank - When I was very young my speciality was ‘cut-throat’ (three handed) Bridge. I played a bit of ‘Pairs’ with an excellent partner and we had a lot of success.
When it came to basic ‘cut-in Bridge’ where you sit down as a four and the partnerships revolve, I was an almost total disaster.
My ego was a ruination and my aim always was to prove that my partner was an idiot and I was a genius.
More than twenty years elapsed without my playing a hand in anger and into middle-age just became an infinitely better player, dint of losing that ego and just trying to big-up partner.
- and on the day he graciously accepts the Nobel Peace Prize for stuff he might - or might not - achieve in the future, Golf Digest reaches the news stands with delectable timing….
http://blogs.suntimes.com/sportsprose/2009/12/tiger_woods_barack_obama_golf.html
Question - what was the last Tory policy issue that tim called right polling wise?
This is a genuine enquiry as I’m struggling to recall one before the Waffen SS stuff.
409 - Only dolphin friendly stockings?
I’ve bought tampax for my missus, ex girlfriends etc. I would have thought that was the simplest explanation. Less comedy value maybe.
405.Plato,
407.MalcolmG, sorry, but I have totally enjoyed Kirsty’s Christmas offering on C4 this week. Get into the Christmas spirit and stop being a bunch of sour pusses.
Does anyone know whether there might be any truth to the rumour that there may be a ComRes poll coming out tonight?
419 Oh don’t be so sensible Mr Jones!
417. I seem to remember we had quite a lot about MMR ‘whackjobs’…
421 - Was on here
First poll reaction to PBR will be published shortly
http://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes
406 - Hmmm, interesting how you managed to fit that in between posting near constantly from 9am until very late at night on Sunday.
Do you have a dedicated member of Tag Team Tim for Sundays?
398: Southam Observer @ 18:53
“No inhaling, just enjoy the dance around your mouth. Viva Cuba!”
As the man said, “A woman is just a woman, but a good gigar is a smoke”
With apologies to the ladies present, but Kiplings wisdom becomes more evident the older I get.
by
423. I should have elaborated - that got nowhere.
And a lot about George Osborne - obviously - that got nowhere.
#391 What is your problem with Kirsty, is it cos she is posh, Tory, on C4, or all three?
Maybe it’s because she grows a better moustache than him?
340 antifrank
Wouldn’t TSE have problems with simultaneous pairs?
Look away now if you aren’t interested in Copenhagen politics
“Dr. Maciej Nowicki , past president of COP14, who made the opening speech of the COP15 conference in Copenhagen has just resigned (i.e. just been sacked) as environment minister by the Polish Government, who now apparently believe that global warming is a hoax. ”
Herald - Mystery surrounds Gordon Brown’s phone calls to Canterbury
“Downing Street is tight-lipped about who was on the other end of a string of lengthy telephone calls to Canterbury, claimed by Gordon Brown on his second home expenses.
Phone bills submitted as part of the Prime Minister’s claims for Additional Cost Allowance were published today as part of the latest release of expenses-related receipts.
Rumours sweeping Westminster that Mr Brown may have been, at the height of the financial crisis, in deep conversations with the Archbishop of Canterbury were being discounted tonight.”
424 that was 8 hrs ago………………
Guido upsetting Kevin Barry on Sky.
429 - Never had a problem before.
Just been twittered that the Com Res poll is another one that shows a falling Conservative lead….it’s only a rumour, but if true where would that leave Angus?
432 - I know, was just pointing out it wasn’t a rumour, rather something that came straight from the horses mouth.
433 - Who is Kevin Barry?
431 Christina, I’d be surprised if Gordon Brown is capable of having a telephone conversation for over an hour, unless he was calling Obama’s answerphone. It was more likely to have been Mrs Brown chatting to one of her friends.
436
Oh all right, Kevin Barron.
Kirstie Allsopps WW2 Ration Tips.
Today, the Soap Shortage.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/ww2peopleswar/stories/54/a4014154.shtml
Today Kirstie discusses how to make soap out of food.
424 - from twitter
Oct ComRes poll 66% back windfall tax and Labour needs to regain support of its core vote see todayt’s FT http://ow.ly/JNdb
That refers to an october Comres if you follow the link.
439 - Seriously, how many votes will these attacks of Kirstie Allsopp shift?
438 - I wasn’t being picky, I honestly didn’t know who you were talking about.
[430] - Did you see the Met Office forecast for next year?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091210b.html
Liam Byrne, being shifty on CH4 news.
439 Sheesh. tim, have another Stella and give it up. It’s f*cking boring now.
Go and play with the kids… Or something … anything…
444 - Suppose that is better than usual then, normally he just outright lies and acts like a psycho.
“EU Bans Foreign Ministers”
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:5b4efe38-ce1a-49a3-a8cb-c576bf4bcd08
Apparently because Baroness Ashton is now in charge they are no longer needed at EU summits. Oh dear…
I think somebody should call child services really with regard Tim. I mean he spends up to 20hrs a day every day posting on here, that really is neglect. Even when he claims he was making biscuits with his kids he was still manage to post from 9am to late at night non-stop.
441. None. Bless him. He tries so hard.
If only we could find out that Kirstie Alsopp was in league with Nadine Dorries to launch an anti-MMR campaign financed by Michal Kaminski and the Latvian Waffen SS. Oh and this plan was hatched on a yacht somewhere with George Osborne.
It would blow his server.
445 – “Go and play with the kids… Or something…”
I forgot Tim had kids…but so apparently has he if the time spent on here is any to go by.
447 - It’s a cover story, no one likes Miliband Snr, and they dont want him there.
446 - Oracle, I was being polite.
Confused about the Comres, is the only source for it that tweet? ( see my post at (440)
450 - He claims he has kids, a farm, a school, have a missed anything?….oh yeah the most unbelievable of all….friends.
443.
“The Met Office, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia”
Oh dear….
Details of the IFS digging in charts…
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5624623/those-hidden-cuts-in-full.thtml
I wonder if UEA are going to be part of the university science cuts hidden in the budget? Somehow I doubt it.
416 TimB It seems that tips for Obama is not the only thing Tiger has 10 of! Or is the count higher now?
447 - as so it begins.
I believe that Khammereon lives in Mornington Crescent.
Tim, has nothing left(of any consequence) to say.. the Labour romance is over. What is left for tim.. the dole queue?
Jon Snow was crap on CH4, he really didn’t push Byrne.
453 - And working on a pilot for a new TV show starring Kirstie and George - How Clean Is The Outside Of Your House?
462 tim
Now wash your house please.
444 Kristin
Was that about the economy, or his airbeds?
@447:
It’s not so much that, it’s that with the European Council an official organ, the distinction between the European Council chaired by Rumpuy and the CFSP configuration of the council of ministers chaired by Ashton is completely clear, so there’s no need to blur the lines any more.
465 - Don’t knock George Clarke, he seems a decent bloke. Or did you mean George Lamb? Now he is bloody annoying.
450. That doesn’t seem to make any sense. The HREU is supposed to represent the EU to the wider world, no? She can’t represent the foreign policy of every constituent nation of the EU at its own summits. That would be a different job entirely (rather an impossible one).
What a wonderful site tim’s promised new blog will be.
According to Michael Savage of the Independent:
Harry Cohen MP claimed £2,000 for a bath, called The Bath, to replace his jacuzzi. Seriously. Also claimed organic toilet paper and oils…
472 - Was that for his caravan?
471 - When was this promise made?
Bridge
Anyone seriously considering learning to play Bridge should try software bridge programmes. The best (playing strength) is called Jack from Dutch developers (www.JackBridge.com).
EBU (English Bridge Union) clubs generally (but not exclusively) play ACOL, the bidding system taught in EBU Clubs. The best ACOL specific software is QPlus (www.q-plus.com).
Another option and the most popular in terms of sales is Bridge Baron. This is the slickest in terms of eye-candy and multimedia features but is very US oriented. (http://www.bridgebaron.com/).
Why is that certain name crop up again and again and again?
Another high claimer was Lord Ahmed, the Labour peer who earlier this year spent sixteen days in prison for dangerous driving. He was sending and receiving text messages only minutes before a crash on the M1, near Rotherham, in which a man died. He claimed £55,141 in 2008-09, including £4,050 for car journeys between London and his home in South Yorkshire.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/pound74000-for-the-most-expensive-peer-1837911.html
474
It was on wayne’s world wobble night after the second hung parliament poll, but I haven’t the will to track it down.
460 - Apparently the police searched Tiger’s Escalade after the crash and found a golf tee.
When asked what it was for he explained that he put his balls on it before driving
wibbler .. lol economy, or what’s left of it.
463, I genuinely believe that tim is on some form of benefit. The amount of postings and time spent on here rules out earning a living in the normally accepted sense.
As for the rich farmer patter, it is demonstrably false. tim is either independently wealthy (unlikely) or funded by state benefit (highly likely)
Being dependent on benefits would explain his bitterness toward the rich successful people that he would like to emulate but is never going to.
Pre-Budget report: the Treasury won’t tell us the true cost of this debt disaster
If you thought Alistair Darling’s figures were bad, wait until you see the final bill, says Jeff Randall.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/6782436/Pre-Budget-report-the-Treasury-wont-tell-us-the-true-cost-of-this-debt-disaster.html
475 - Thanks SOL
475 One year I was Mens Pairs Champion with my partner for a certain county pairs competion. I well remember the decisive hand. A bidding misundertanding… my partner propeeled me into 6NT. I remembered some of my teaching and rectified the count, squeezed the opposition and made 6NT with the 3 of clubs as my last trick. Everyone else was in 3Nt +2 or+3. We won narrowly against some of the top pairs in the County.
Sadly it was never to be repeated………….. but my name is on the Cup….
478 LOL
I see there’s some ’swingforward’ on SPIN:
Con 352-357 (+2)
Lab 208-213 (-2)
LD 50-53
466 - “Three years in to a Conservative Government, George Osborne spends some of his inheritance on having the outside of his house cleaned with cinammon and coconut soap fromm Lady Allsopps (The shop and Housing Minister)”
http://tinyurl.com/let-them-eat-cake-soap
Looks like the Unions aren’t happy
A glimpse of a fairer tax system
The pre-budget report rightly avoids slashing spending, but the squeeze on public sector employees is indefensible says Brendan Barber
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/10/tax-system-pre-budget-report
424 “Oh don’t be so sensible Mr Jones!”
To make up for it, my view of Kirsty Allsop involves her and Nigella Lawson being dipped in honey and brought to my boudoir.
480 Anyone who regularly posts on PB from 07:00 to after 00:00 the same day after day does seem a tad obsessive.
I’m perplexed why anyone would spend so much of their day on an interweb site.
Surely family, friends, kids, pets, buying groceries would take precident?
*scratches head again*
489 - “Surely family, friends, kids, pets,” - What if you don’t have any?
“buying groceries” - shop online?
489 Plato. Yet to be fully house-trained puppies take precedence over all else.
On a more serious note, what evidence is that Kristy All-Ramper is going to be anywhere near the House of Lords post GE? I seem to remember one or two days where it was mentioned in like the Daily Rant (and she denied it) and that is it.
490 I was trying to be kind
488 - You’ll get all hot and sticky if that happened. Oh
That Labour figure is way way too low.
As regards the Uk’s sovereign credit rating if you look at how the ratings agencies are hammering some European countries there is no reason to believe the UK wont be in line.
The reaction from the credit rating to the PBR can be describved as sceptical but I suspect a little will depend on the Q4 economic figures and it is no sure thing yet that the Triple A will be lost.
In political terms if the UK is seen to be anything less than triple plated it will have a material effect though this can be hidden to some extent and some of it will be indirect.
There will be a political effect as well. Labour = basket case economy. Even those not long enough in tooth to much remember the Labour government up to 79 will be aware of that link.
Its an open goal for the opposition if it happens. The public may not bother with the nuances but they do understand the basics. A nation has poor credit, that really doesnt sound good and doesnt feel good even if it doesnt appear to have a direct material effect on Joe Average. If it hits the stock markets etc, again for Joe Average they may not see a direct link but it really wont feel good.
And what will people do? Blame the government.
So no Comres then ?
489. Tim is a CCHQ worker - it’s always been pretty obvious.
Gabble of course is Timmy Mallet, now starring in Panto.
The “problem” with the Angus Reid figures is they are incredible if you compare them with established figures but entirely credible if you look at the results of the last national election - the Euro’s - and factor in one of Mikes golden rules, that the polls showing the lowest Labour scores tend to be the most accurate.
Because this is their first British election we have no track ecord to refer to as such.
Ergo all awe can do a la Angus Reid is speculate, bitch and bet on our hunches which is deeply frustrating although I suppose the sole purpose of the site.
Its intriguing but I think the ARS/PB.com match up could be one made in Heaven.
497 - As Widow T Wanky?
489. The obvious answer is it is part of their job.
From UKpolling report.
Andrew Hawkins of ComRes has implied on his twitter feed that we’ll also be getting something from them tonight, though I don’t know if there’s really been time for a post PBR voting intention poll.
491 I have sore memories of my only puppy [greyhound] litter - ate antique furniture, constantly escaped into neighbour’s garden [eventually tied them to the kitchen table], knocked me over on the stairs narrowly avoiding a broken leg - and of course pooed and peed on the landing.
I love them, but no puppies for me ever again
I don’t know if Plato is a club Bridge player, but if she is and plays in the EBU Simultaneous Pairs competition then she may have come across the site that publishes the rankings and results of each national competition. It is http://www.ecatsbridge.com/. If you follow the links through “About Us” to ‘The eCats Cats’ and ‘The Railway Station’, a whole new cat’s cradle will be opened up. Very English and very eccentric.
Mr Logue - I’d love to play bridge but am a novice - will have a good read of your link.
Many thanks
502. I am apparently dog sitting this weekend and given its been years since I’ve owned such a four legged creator of chaos I have to say I’m as excited as a kid at Christmas at having one about the house.
Of course I made it sound like I was doing the owner a favour….
501 - I pointed out on an earlier post that the twitter from Andrew referred to a poll taken in October and reported in the FT on the 7th December.
504 Go to night school. There are plenty of classes, but don’t get obsessed, before you know it, you will be playing 4 nights a week, be invited to county games. It takes over your life.. thats why I gave up competitive bridge.
Full data tables for this evening’s PB Angus Reid poll now available here
http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/table_uk_1210.pdf
Mike I used the wrong email address on my last post, so it’s stuck in moderation, please delete it. Thanks.
505, what sort of breed and how old is it?
OT Thought readers would like to know that Stewart Hall is 80 today and still as effervescent as ever
495 The frantic attempt to push the Q3 figures up to -0.1 looks decidely dodgy to me. Especially when I heard the construction industry caused the most recent revision. If there is one industry that owes Labour it is them. I will be interested to see the breakdown of the Q4 figures and how much construction has contributed. Regardless I expect fiddled figures if Gordon gets a chance.
501 - that tweet refers to an October poll as I said earlier.
I note as well that ARS has the Lib Dems on 19% just as the most recent ICM does. The two companies with questions focused on a voters locality and thus its widely held the most favourable to the party. If the glass is half full 19% is very healthy pre election campaign. If its half empty you have to ask what an Ashdown or a Kennedy would have done to those extraordinary high “others” figures in the current climate.
Interesting speculation about Gordon Brown’s mystery phone calls to Canterbury
http://timescolumns.typepad.com/gledhill/2009/12/gordon-brown-in-lengthy-calls-to-canterbury-exes-show.html
512 - But his tweet 8hrs ago said
“First poll reaction to PBR will be published shortly”
515 - I wonder if Gordo is going to have to come and say who he has been phoning as such times? Speculation can’t be a good thing.
506 Thanks for that - will give it a go, I was brought up by a croupier when I was 3-7yrs and became a Blackjack ninja in primary school.
As recounted by my mother - ‘Aunty Ada - “do you want to play Snap? NO! I want to play Blackjack!!”
Don’t see the point of immediate polling after PBR’s. Only the committed will watch it live, for the rest of the public you need at least a Sunday paper to go past before it all sinks in.
516 - thanks TSE, that wasn’t coming up on twitter for me before but I can see it now. Weird.
519
You have to be completely wrong.. Nick Palmer was earlier claiming that the poll showed that the PBR hadn’t moved opinion one way or the other, even though only 1/3 of the polling was done after the PBR………
Labour support running at 21% in this poll among the ABC1 group with a sample size of 828 which is getting on for being reliable.
515 - If the Archbishop of Canterbury actually lives in Canterbury, that could mean the Church of England is really a Church.
518 - Your “Over egg the pudding” climate friends have a programme all about them on Radio 4 at the moment.
523 - Shouldn’t you be watching Kristy All-Ramper with the kids?
505…I don’t know as I havent met said dog yet. I believe its a Springer Spaniel.
Alistair Darling’s pre-budget report signalled that all of the increase in spending on public services by Labour in its second and third terms of government will be entirely reversed during the next parliament, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said today.
The independent think-tank’s in-depth review of Wednesday’s statement also contradicts Darling’s claim that for Whitehall departments outside the ring-fenced areas of education, health and aid spending will remain flat. In fact they face average cuts of 5.6% a year, or around £36bn in the three years to 2013/14, equivalent to nearly half the annual NHS budget, according to IFS researcher Gemma Tetlow.
“All the increase in central government spending on public services over Labour’s second and third terms will be reversed by 2013/14. And potentially the first-term increases could be reversed by 2017/18,” she said.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/dec/10/pre-budget-report-institute-fiscal-studies
If Brown did call the arch bish on christmas eve for two hours, it just totally cements him as a complete nutjob. If true I can’t believe the Labour party subjected us to this useless weirdo.
Palin came out against the GWS on her facebook page (aka political deathstar of doom). It’s all over bar the shouting.
Erm, can we afford our own space agency ?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8404213.stm
I may have an idea for the 2hour phone call. Didn’t Brown and his wife lost their daugther around christmas time? Perhaps the call might be of a personal nature.
*** BETTING POST ***
Well, hold the fort, I have heard news from a Government source that the election will be on for March. Not only is this a Government source, but his department has been told it will be March too. It suggests active preparation
http://www.snptacticalvoting.com/2009/12/general-election-march-25th-guaranteed.html
Evening all
I rarely agree with YS even though we are or seem to be in the same party and if that doesn’t signify a “broad coalition” I don’t know what does.
I doubt the LDs would be doing any better were CK still leader though I do concede a Paddy Ashdown figure would probably be a better proposition as leader. The amount of work Paddy put in especially in the tough 1989-92 period was staggering and considering the nadir of 1989 the final result of 1992 wasn’t too bad at all.
In the same way as the party struggled to deal with the response to merger and the significance of the improved Labour performance in 1987 the LDs struggled to respond to Cameron from late 2005 onwards even though it was inevitable that one day the Tories would eventually pick an electable leader.
527 , maybe his wife was visiting friends or family ? The phone call went into Christmas day so that surely must be the explanation.
530 - 8 January 2002.
515.Wibbler, the Herald are reporting on them as well.
525.Yokel, they are lovely dogs with a wonderful nature and bounds of energy.
533 2 hrs………….. has to be politics, but who was it..
530/534 - Thanks, had a look on google, and she was born 28th of December 2001 and died 8th of January. Must make Christmas and the New year very poignant for the Browns
531. March currently favourite on Betfair
535 - defecting from the Church of Scotland?
536 - Perhaps TSE has a point.
And as one of the detritus cheerleaders who were prepared to use my genuine point about Ivan Camerons death to attack me, maybe you should think twice.
Excellent PBR from Mr Darling.
Obviously, he couldn’t please everyone, so he’s done the next best thing and pleased no-one.
As a result, the critics to his plans have been divided and unfocussed, with the tories actually reduced to spreading demonstrably inaccurate scare stories.
The fact that the first post PBR poll shows that Labour have actually increased their support, is further proof that Darling has pulled off a magnificent political achievement.
Just got a letter throught the post from the tories, one addressed to each person in the house. I live in a lib-con seat. Last time the vote was Con 31, Lib 46. Its quite clear how they are going to campaign for votes. Here’s the main exerp:
”A vote for … in oxford is a vote for change- a vote for anybody else is a vote for 5 more years of gordon brown. Next year’s election will decide whether david cameron or gordon brown is our next PM. To change the goverment in westminster, the conservatives must win here. The power to change the government is in your hands”.
540 - However, normally the press are told if it was something like this and they do the decent thing and don’t mention it. These phone calls have been mentioned by people at various different media outlets (and hardly scummy ones).
541 - So you’re including, the FT, the IFS as part of his critics?
541. Best straw clutching post ever.
541.
541 Okay.
Appropriate reaction to MacGabble’s post,
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_U-Vldmrb0i4/RvFUiemSHpI/AAAAAAAAAV0/5k7YnDUj6Yo/s320/tumbleweed.jpg
541 *splutter* ‘pleases no one’ is an election winning strategy?
Pope Benedict XVI will preach to MPs and peers in Westminster Hall when he visits England next September, Vatican sources said today.
He will make an address from the spot where Sir Thomas More was condemned to death in 1535 for opposing the adultery of King Henry VIII.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/pope-to-address-mps-in-westminster-during-state-visit-1837791.html
541 *splutter* ‘pleases no one’ is an election winning strategy?
540 Perhaps he has. As for genunine post, its hardly surprising that the one genuine post might have been misinterpreted amongst all the dissembling and smears.
541
551 It was worth saying twice
Gabble’s convinced me. I hope Labour go out and spread the message of the PBR to all.
new thread
folks -new thread
Hmm…well, IF the election is March 25th, two thoughts…
1) When does BST commence ? The last election held under GMT would have been February 1974 and that produced an “interesting” result.
2) I suppose the London Borough Elections in May will show us if the new Government is still in its “honeymoon” period.
558 -also the election on 28th February 1974 had quite a high turnout.
541. Gabble
TAKE YOUR HEAD OUT OF YOUR BACKSIDE
General Election - March 25th (Guaranteed*)
http://www.snptacticalvoting.com/2009/12/general-election-march-25th-guaranteed.html
Source in govt confirms 25th March election apparently…
I see Scotland even with Angus Reid is returning a high % of Labour voters.
541 Gabble
You are almost beyond parody. How could a PBR such as that be “excellent”
There is, theoretically, a sense where a Chancellor could make the very best possible of an extremely bad job, in the way that George Osborne might do in June for example, but since Darling is in no sense absolved from blame of what has gone before, still less his Prime Minister, then to describe it as “excellent” is just risible. It went no way towards addressing the country’s pressing problem, was nakedly political, had its head in the clouds and missed almost all major targets, literal and metaphorical.
Excellent it was not.
from an snp view, this poll shows 15% of these people polled voted for the snp last time and up to 33% including leaners will do so next time of this audience. if the snp can get 2.2 times their vote across the board from last time, which was at 17%, so up to say 36 or 37% then they would win heaps of seats.
they need those leaners to go from fence sitting to actual voters, otherwise they fall in 27 to 30% territory which does not translate into too many new seats.
truly disaster for tories and liberals in scotland. and with labour getting three times the tory vote it does skew labour up in an overall uk ballot.
cameron neesxs to apologise for thatcher and forsyth and all the faffing about of the 80’s to see a vote increase or it will not happen for him. assuming he actually cares about winning more than 1 seat in scotland anyway.
the english vote separately minus scotland and wales is needed i think, lumping wales in with the midlands make sit hard to work out the effect of Plaid in Wales really is in areas outside their core seats, now they are actively going for the whole Welsh and not just the Welsh speaking vote.
does that make lib dems 2nd over labour in england only, assuming we lose half the welsh/midlands data for the exercise and we lose the whole of scotland? labour drops two points and libs up 2 points at the very least i think.
somebody clever work that out please………………