Introducing the “PB Super SIX” Predictions - Part 1
November 10th, 2009
The “collective wisdom” view on key seat betting
In table above we feature the first part of the predictions for key general election seats from a group of PB betting regulars who are modestly calling themselves “The PB Super Six”.
Can I thank Peter the Punter and ScottP for pulling this together. The plan is to show all the seats where they have got bets on and the colour coding indicates where their money is going. This is part 1. Parts 2 and 3 will follow in the next day or so.
Clearly a lot depends on what price they got and no doubt we’ll find out more in the thread.
Amongst the online bookmakers with seat betting are:-
PaddyPowerMike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
“The “collective wisdom” view on key seat betting”
We’re sunk
Sky bet also offer some constituency betting. Their odds are quite often intriguingly out of line with other bookies, so well worth a look.
Note to PtP - I’m publishing them in a different order than on the spreadsheet.
Will we find out if these special ones change their mind?
FPT 503 PtP. “We” !! “We” !!
I think you’ll find that by losing by that vast margin in the “PB World Betting Forcaster and General Good-Egg Vote” and your failure to engage in the “Great Watford Debate” has relegated you to the under Titans of the “PB Super Six”
Think Chelsea and Manchester Utd against the likes of Everton, Tottenham !!
FPT: Is the by-election this Thursday?
I want to see a column for Ave It 09.
To my mind bets on individual constituencies are very useful both as a way of getting better odds on the general outcome you expect, and as a way of reducing risk. Thus, having an overall position optimised for a Conservative majority in the 50-100 region, I’ve been looking for attractive bets on Labour or the LibDems, which should win even if my overall reading turns out to be too bullish on the Conservatives. Conversely, if the Conservatives do much better than I expect overall, then I may lose some of the above bets but that will be more than compensated for by profits on the spread-bet market.
That’s the theory, anyway!
A sea of orange !
might i suggest that you show the pundits’ names along the bottom of the list as well as along the top.
7 Casino - It’s a solid block of blue.
re 5. Or even better - “think Burnley, Chelsea, Man U..” - the real titans.
3 Noted with thanks Mike.
Not too many controversial choices from the “PB Super Six” save for PfP’s opting for the Tories in Westmorland and Lonsdale which appears as likely as getting an away penalty at Old Trafford !!
FPT
344- donkey’s versus cyber nits
499- before you complain about people generalising again you should re read your own post “Obviously, the Tories on here will spin it to make it seem that is exactly what Labour is doing”.
FWIW I think Brown has been pretty badly treated here, especially taping the phone call, that is really low. But there’s no point trying to associate the Tory party with such tactics because we weren’t involved. The Sun did it on their own frolic.
When Alan Duncan invited the guy who had vandalised his garden for drinks, he betrayed Duncan’s trust and recorded the conversation. Labour have used that as a line of attack so it would be hypocritical to complain about this. Especially Brown, given his track record on spin and unpleasant tactics.
I haven’t really given the Lib Dems much of a chance in Wavertree until recently, but I believe the MP is standing down so there’ll be no incumbency benefit. It could be interesting.
5 LOL!
7 Casino. “I want to see a column for Ave It 09.”
You mean this :
http://organizationsandmarkets.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/klein-blue1.jpg
12 Mike S. Hhhmmmm …. and they said JARHEAD was a flight of fancy !!
11. Nah. I find that hard to believe. From Ave It?
ARE YOU SURE?
9 Ghost - Mike has ordered the seats that way; there is plenty of blue to come in parts 2 and 3!
FULL TRANSCRIPT:
JACQUI JANES: I’m sorry, you know, I have the deepest respect for the fact that you are Prime Minister but I am the mother of a soldier who, really, you know, his death could have been prevented in several ways, lack of helicopters being the main one.
GORDON BROWN: I don’t think so but, er, obviously you are entitled to your views. We have tried to do everything we can to protect people against these explosive devices.
JJ: Er, Mr Brown, Mr Brown can I just step in here. My sons are fifth generation infantry I’m not silly. I have had lots of info from different people who I know from within the Army. I know about Chinooks that, er, were meant to be brought up to the Mark III standards but went wrong so they’re no good.
I know about the Merlins that have been brought back from Iraq and are still sitting in this country.
I know of another soldier that sustained the same injuries from an IED that my son sustained and he’s alive. All right, limbless, but alive. My son wasn’t given that opportunity…
GB: Er, I, I
JJ: The letter that you wrote to me Mr Brown…
GB: Yes
JJ: I don’t want to sound disrespectful here, but was an insult to my child. There was 25 spelling mistakes, 25!
GB: There wasn’t.
JJ: Mr Brown I’ve got the letter in front of me…
GB: I’ve got the letter in front of me and if you feel that my writing was not right then I’m sorry about that.
JJ: I’m not saying, I’m not saying, no, no, no… I have made no comment about how your writing looked. But other people have seen this letter as well. And as for my serving soldier in Catterick…
Humbled … PM Gordon Brown GB: Yes.
JJ: You know he has to now live with the fact that there was nothing he could have done. He was a more senior soldier than Jamie. Jamie was very proud to be a soldier, very proud.
GB: You know you know that I wrote to you, er, a handwritten letter because I was…
JJ: Listen to me…
GB: … because I was concerned about the death of your son…
JJ: Listen to me, please. I am looking at the letter now…
GB: You know I did write the letter because I was concerned about the death of your son and I don’t think what I said in it was disrespectful at all.
JJ: I never said it was disrespectful. The spelling mistakes are disrespectful.
GB: Er…
JJ: The fact that you named me Mrs James was disrespectful.
GB: I think I think I was trying to say Janes, as your right name. Maybe, maybe my writing looks bad but I was trying to say your right name. And I spelt Jamie right as well I understand.
JJ: Erm, I beg to differ. I’ve got the letter in front of me so I do beg to differ.
GB: I, I, well…
JJ: I can not believe I have been brought down to the level of having an argument with the Prime Minister of my own country
GB: Well I wanted to assure you that everything that I have tried to do is both protect our forces and when, when your son died I wanted to send my respect to you and write a letter that appreciated the service that he had given to the country. And I think if you are able to look at the letter again, and I know it is something that’s very difficult to do when you’re receiving letters about something that is so personal, you you’ll see that I said Jamie was a brave, selfless, professional soldier who was held in the highest esteem and regard by all who worked with him and I tried to say that words may offer little comfort at this time but I hope that over time you would find some consolation in his courage and in his bravery and in the great contributions he made to the security of his country and I then said if I can help in any way please, please tell me and I would have been very happy to have received a letter from you and replied again or if you’d asked to meet me I would have met you. So…
JJ: I think, I think at this stage…
GB: Please understand my good intentions and I’m sorry you feel so strongly about, er, about, er, the way I wrote the letter but I hope that on reflection you’ll understand that I have the greatest of sympathy for you and I…
JJ: … I’m not, I’m not doubting that, I am not doubting the whole of the country has the greatest of sympathy for me. What I do know for a fact is that our soldiers out there - they should be out there by the way, I do truly believe in my heart of hearts that the troops should be out there. We do need more troops out there for a start, we do need the helicopters out there. That’s a fact. I know for fact of certain different pilots working out of Kandahar that on some occasions there is only one Casevac (casualty evacuation) helicopter available.
GB: Well, I, I, I’m sorry that that that’s the information that, er, you’ve been…
JJ: But I know it’s fact and not fiction.
GB: Well, OK, OK, I don’t want to argue with you because I want to actually pass on my condolences and I want to assure you that although you’ve taken some offence against a letter I’ve written I’ve tried to reflect my personal sadness at the loss of your son, er, and I don’t want to have any, erm, argument with you about it.
If you feel strongly that I’ve done you wrong then that’s for you to decide but I want to assure you that there was never any intention on my part to do anything other than pass on my condolences to you and to your your, your family, understanding that you are a a military family and that you have given great service as a family to our country, er, and I hope that, er, that on reflection you, you will understand that I was trying to do the best by, by our country and trying to reflect the sadness that Sarah and I have at the loss of your son.
I, I’m sorry that I have been unable to persuade you of that but that is how I feel, that is that is how I feel.
JJ: Right, can I now just say how I feel?
GB: Yes please.
JJ: Many many years ago, in 18-something, somebody said the biggest enemy of our Army was our Treasury… they were so right.
GB: I, I…
JJ: Even to this day..
GB: I, I…
JJ: Mr Brown, to this day, I know as fact helping my sons buy equipment themselves before they go to war, I know of every mother, the letters I have received off mothers whose sons have been killed, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, you know, friends of mine that were killed in Northern Ireland.
I know that our Government are letting our troops down, big time.
GB: But I’m sorry I would not send anybody abroad unless I felt that they were properly equipped and, er, what I’ve told the Army chiefs that we cannot send people abroad unless we can properly equip them.
JJ: But they’re not properly equipped and we both know this.
GB: That…
JJ: Why are… then please tell me why are all the Merlins still in this country that have since come back from Iraq?
GB: The reason the Merlins, er, came back from Iraq and are in the country and about to go out to Afghanistan is that they have to be completely remodelled with new blades because you cannot fly the Merlins that were flying in Iraq in Afghanistan, which is a different terrain, er, and, er, the height is different and the, the temperature is different.
JJ: So what, what…
GB: The helicopter pilots have got to go to America to be trained in the high altitude and in night light. I’ve been to see the helicopters myself and I’ve seen how they’ve had to be regraded, er, so they can actually fly in Afghanistan and you cannot take the helicopters straight from Iraq to Afghanistan because they need these new blades and that’s, that’s I’m afraid the reason why, although three I think, are going in the next three weeks, it’s taken time to get the Iraq Merlins ready for Afghanistan.
I’m sorry that is the case but that is the reality. We had to re-equip the helicopters to…
JJ: I know what has to be done. I have been made aware of what needed to be done. But nobody has replaced the Chinooks that were, erm, how can we put it, that went wrong.
GB: I, I don’t I, I, I wanted to speak to you because of the controversy, erm, that you’ve, erm, you’ve erm, obviously that surrounded… that I had every intention of, er, of passing on the condolences of myself and on behalf of the country. Er, er, I’m sorry that you’ve taken offence about that…
JJ: I didn’t take offence that you were writing me a letter of condolence. It was the amount of spelling mistakes. It was just like an absolute insult to my child, who, by the way, was only 20 years old.
GB: I understand that he was only 20 years old but I’m sorry I don’t think I did have spelling mistakes. My writing is maybe so badly (muffled) that you can’t read it and I’m sorry. But I have tried to write honestly and honourably about the contributions your son made and… (muffled) can’t be read. I know from colleagues Jamie was a brave, selfless professional soldier held in the highest regard.
JJ: I don’t need anyone to tell me how brave my son was. My son paid the ultimate, ultimate sacrifice.
GB: OK, Miss Janes, I’m sorry, that I can’t, I can’t, er, satisfy you, but I have tried my best, er, to er, show you this evening that if there’s been some misunderstanding about how my…
JJ: I do appreciate you taking the time to phone me but I’m afraid we are going to have to, erm, disagree.
GB: Well that’s that’s, I, I, I know how strongly you, you feel.
JJ: No, Mr Brown, Mr Brown, listen to me… I know every injury that my child sustained that day. I know that my son could have survived but my son bled to death. How would you like it if one of your children, God forbid, went to a war doing something that he thought, where he was helping protect his Queen and country and because of lack, LACK of helicopters, lack of equipment your child bled to death and then you had the coroner have to tell you his every injury?
Do you understand Mr Brown? Lack of equipment.
GB: I do understand but I think you, you have got to also understand that I feel very strongly about this as, as you do.
JJ: So where’s all the money? You can save a bank. You can put seven whatever into saving a bank. Why not put it into the troops? We all know they are not going to be brought home and I am glad they are there to help.
GB: I’m sorry Miss Janes…
JJ: No, Mr Brown.
GB: I’m sorry, Miss Janes, we have tried to give the troops the equipment they need and I have tried my best…
JJ: And failed…
GB: Well if it’s not good enough for, for them they’ll have to make their own decisions but I have tried my best…
JJ: Even Army hierarchy are retiring and telling you what is going wrong and still you send 500 more troops not the 2,000 needed.
GB: I’m sorry, I’m sorry…
JJ: You’re making it sound like my son and every other child that has been killed in a savage manner…
GB: Nobody was asking for 2,000 more troops
JJ: Really?
GB: Yes, nobody was asking for 2,000 troops, there are 9,000, 9,100 there at the moment, increasing to 9,500 the, the chiefs of staff are not asking for it to go up to 11,000 or 11,500. I just tell you that honestly. Whatever information you’ve been given, that is not correct. But I don’t want to interact in a political debate about this…
JJ: No that’s fine. Nor do I.
GB: What I want to do is to pass on my condolences and to say, however strongly you feel about my mistakes in this matter, I still feel very, very personally sad about the death of your son and I want you to know that and I’m sorry if you’ve taken offence at my letter.
I’ve tried my best, er, to faithfully reflect my feelings about the loss of your son and the contribution he made, er, and, er, thank you very much for talking to me this evening.
JJ: Thank you very much
GB: Er, and I’m sorry that we can’t agree but I hope you’ll agree that I’ve tried my best to pass on my condolences, on to you and your family.
JJ: Thank you very much.
GB: Thank you.
Just to clarify……
These are actually bets we’ve had, but of course they don’t reflect the confidence behind those bets, the odds or amounts: for example, I went very heavy on Bristol West at good odds and fully expect to collect. Cheltenham was a tad more speculative and 2/1 was no great value, so it was minimum stakes.
If there is the interest, we may try to introduce some kind of weighting into the spreadsheet but for now we thought just a list of the straightforward votes would be enough.
Bear in mind too that this is just a thrid of the list, focusing mainly on the LDs. Lots of blue to come!
Mike, could you add a column to put your predictions for the seats.
Would be useful to see your opinions too, as well as the esteemed and erudite members of the Super Six.
Interesting…and an encouraging sea of orange. I’d be very interested to hear of any updates to this chart.
Bedford and Edinburgh South look the most interesting with Labour losing out to either LDs or Cons - I suspect those contests will be the most “keenly fought”
There’s a book open on Glasgow NE in the general?
Having been up to West Lancs a couple of times and having met our candidate, I’d say that Con gain is a very likely result now. 6 months ago I thought we had very little chance there.
18 - Jack W, when do we get the next ARSE poll?
15 - That’s a fair point about generalisations.
I agree that the Tories will keep well out of this and that it will not become a party political row. That’s why I don’t think that Labour is going to harm itself too much by having a row with the Sun. That paper has madeits decision and will not be positive about Labour between now and election. If they were not running with this story they would be running with another anti-Labour one. By attacking the Sun and saying it is anti-Labour and pro-Tory publication, Labour is just establishing that in the public’s mind, which may help neutralise further attacks further down the line and will definitely mobilise the party’s base. The key, of course, is not to attack Mrs Janes.
29- That’s a good point, they have nothing to lose. Even if there is a fall out between Labour and Murdoch that won’t stop him crawling back to Labour if they regain the momentum after the next GE. He’s not going to let principle get in the way of profit.
23 TSE
Be careful. These are bets, not predictions. They reflect what we thought were good value opportunities at the time. It looks like we all got on the Green early for Brighton Pav, when the odd were 4/1. It’s now 2/1, and probably decent vlue at that still, but it suggests only a 33% probability that we will collect.
Also, we wanted to keep it simple by not mixing bets with predictions, or including too many contributors.
31 - I worded it wrongly, I meant to say Mike’s bets on these seats.
24 Thanks Tfkar
The intention is to update and report back from time to time, if there is the interest.
Don’t get carried away though. This is the orange sector. MAsses of blue to come.
I’ll take a tentative view on the Scottish seats there:
Edinburgh S - Lib Dem gain from Lab (3rd place finish)
Dunfermline & West Fife - Lab re-gain from Lib Dem by-election win
Edinburgh N & Leith - SNP gain from Lab
Glasgow NE - Lab gain from Speaker (or Lab Hold, if you are to compare with by-election)
Glasgow East - SNP gain from Lab (or SNP Hold, if you are to compare with by-election)
Mike, I could have suggested a better list of 5 Scottish “Benchmark” seats!!
Isn’t there a problem with Eastboourne- I thgought it was a Cons seat with not much prospect of the Lib Dems taking it this electionj at least. It appears to be on the list as Lib Dem seat.
35 Thanks Max.
Yes, well spotted. I’ll correct it for later versions.
34- Edinburgh N& Leith SNP gain?
2005 Results:
Labour: 14597 (34.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 12444 (29.2%)
Conservative: 7969 (18.7%)
SNP: 4344 (10.2%)
Other: 3286 (7.7%)
Majority: 2153 (5%)
That’s a bit optimistic isn’t it? What do you make of Edinburgh SW?
Reading that whole conversation is actually quite amazing. Never mind the lack of apology; the way in which Brown tries to assert that she has no idea what she’s talking about, when she clearly does, is amazing. She doesn’t swallow any of his usual Ainsworth-style crap.
21 - That’s the frst time I have seen the full transcript and it does not look as bad for Brown as I thougt it would. What is striking is that there are no errs or other stutters from Mrs Janes. Is this really how it sounds on the recording? If so, all credit to her.
30 Murdoch is clever, he knows Labour are unpopular so prentends to be on the public’s side …. then when the Tories are in power for a few years they too become unpopular … Murdoch stabs them in the back too. I don’t trust Murdoch, the scum Sun or any other paper he owns. Murdoch is an anti-democrat fascist.
The issue should have been dealt with a bit more sensitively, after all a serviceman has been killed.
Mike -
Amongst the online bookmakers with seat betting are:-
PaddyPower
Ladbrokes
William Hill
Victor Chandler
Betfair although there is very little liquidity
Don’t forget poor old SkyBet!!
21
That is truly amazing isn’t it. How can there be so many politicians in the country, all scrabbling to climb the greasy pole, and yet at the very top there is a man who has so little self-awareness, so little empathy, such a lack of people skills.
Nothing in the Thick Of It, or The Office, comes to close to how cringeworthy that is to read. It’s hard to believe it’s real, and yet it is.
How could Labour allow this man to lead them and the country?
Don’t forget the Mark Senior and Roger prediction columns either.
43: Lol….
37. Bob - “What do you make of Edinburgh SW?”
Tory shoo-in.
Here is the new MP:
http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/internet/council/council_business/councillor_database/councillors/a08_cllr_jason_rust_(con)
38 - What he seems to be saying to me is that he does not ant to get into a politicalconversation with her when the point of the call is to apologise for any distress he may have caused her. I guess people with different political leanings will read it in different ways.
29. “By attacking the Sun and saying it is anti-Labour and pro-Tory publication, Labour is just establishing that in the public’s mind, which may help neutralise further attacks further down the line and will definitely mobilise the party’s base. The key, of course, is not to attack Mrs Jane”
You make it sound like Labour just need to point out that the Sun supports the Tories and that will disarm the paper. What a load of rubbish, if such a tactic worked none of the newspapers would have any power to shape the politics of this country, as they can all be pigeon-holed.
If things were as you say a) the Tories would have been able to do the same in the past and easily fended off attacks from the Sun, b) the switch wouldn’t have produced such an hysterical outburst from Labour and c) the Tories wouldn’t have crowed about their new supporter.
The simple fact is that having the support of the biggest selling newspaper is a prize that all our political parties covet because the Sun, whatever you may think of the, can shape the debate.
45.
Try this link instead:
http://tinyurl.com/ydb84on
46 - it’s not political to question why we only have 7 functioning helicopters in a country where the roads are covered with bombs. It’s common sense.
Brown and Ainsworth make it political by accusing people who raise that point of being political.
42 “In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king”
BTW In this case I generally despair that politics has come to this, and have sympathy with Gordon Brown.
30 - I think that Labour and News International are never going to be chums again. Once bitten, twice shy and all that. It’s very high stakes for team Murdoch now in my view. If Labour does get back in at some stage, I think that revenge may be in the offing. The Sun will always be Tory now.
o/t I can report I’ve just had a sighting of the rara avis Dollyus Draperus having lunch at the British Library with an unidentified (male) companion. The Draperus was conducting an animated conversation and has obviously been feeding well judging by its ample girth.
51 - “The Sun will always be Tory now”
I remember hearing people say that after the ‘92 election.
When Labour unearth the next Tony Blair*, they may well come to supporting Labour.
*I think it’s James Purnell, but Labour haven’t realised it yet.
51 - SO, are you suggesting that a future Labour government would take steps to damage a media company which had previously been critical of it? Sounds like a bit of a slippery slope, no?
37. Bob
Regarding Edinburgh N & Leith, I did say “tentative”, did I not?
Honestly though, take a look at both the Euro result and the Holyrood result. Then consider that the Lib Dems are going to take a big chunk of Lab votes (as the Tories simultaneously take a big chunk of Lib Dem votes).
We are heading for a “Russell Johnston” type result in Edin N&L next year, ie. something like:
SNP 25%
Lab 24%
LD 24%
Con 22%
Grn 4%
47 - I am not saying it will disarm them, I am sayin that it may make some peope think about it. Clearly, it will not win the next election but it may neutralise some attacks to a point. Without doubt, it also motivates the Murdoch-hating Labour grassroots. And I guess they certainly need motivating.
Of course, the Sun could also over-reach itself. I think there is considerable sympathy for both Mrs Janes and Brown in all this and the Sun runs the risk of painting itself as the bogeyman. If it does that, its on-going anti-Labour message message will clearly not be as powerful as it could have be.
51 “The Sun will always be Tory now.”
The Sun will always be for The Sun.
The Sun had no difficulty being Tony Blair’s brashest and loudest friend.
And — if it is in the interests of Murdoch — I am sure the Sun can be David Milliband’s (or Southam Observer’s ) bestest friend as well
54 - I think it would, without doubt.
21. I don’t doubt the intention of Brown’s sincerity but all he does issue fake apologies. He’s just to got to listen and say; “yes I know I f**ked up sorry”:
I don’t think so but, er, obviously you are entitled to your views.
if you feel that my writing was not right then I’m sorry about that.
I’m sorry that we can’t agree
you have got to also understand that I feel very strongly about this as, as you do.
I’m sorry that I have been unable to persuade you of that but that is how I feel
re Exeter - is Mr Bradshaw really safe or will the LDs/Cons split the oppo vote ?
Which bookies have Exeter odds ? - I can’t seem to find on Lads/PP/VC.
57 - I think it will be very difficult for any Labour leader to get too close to NI again after this.
39. He’s fine once he realises - about two-thirds of the way through the conversation - that he should stop being defensive, listen and then personally apologise to her.
It’s interesting. Initially Brown just wants to transmit. The fact she actually has to say “listen to me” to him several times is very telling. Eventually she says; “Right, can I now just say how I feel?”
What he should of done, of course, is let her do all the talking and said “I understand” a lot.
This transcript is from the horses mouth. It shows Brown’s personality warts and all. And it’s not that dissimiliar from how we all thought it was despite being told how “different he is in private” by all his “friends and people who know him”.
58 - Wow: vote Labour for an end to press freedom…
57. “The Sun will always be for The Sun.”
Exactly. The Sun is anti-Labour and anti-Brown because its readers and the country are as well. Giving you readers what they want is the name of the game.
61 - After what? Telling the truth? This isn’t like the Guardian and their 5000 phones hacked claim with no evidence.
Also, I wouldn’t paint the whole NI stable with the same colour. The Times and Sky give the government a reasonably fair ride over most things.
o/t. Any more on the missing evidence from Ed Balls’ department in Sharon Shoesmith case, as briefly mentioned on BBC News?
61 Labour leaders — when offered the friendship of the Sun — roll on their back and wait to be tickled on the tummy, wagging their tails furiously.
The two seats where I think the “Super Six” - sounds like a beer sponsored cricket tournament - have got it wrong are the Green in Brighton and the Lib Dem in Brent.
On the whole its a bit early for constituency betting but I’ve got the Lib Dems in Eastbourne and Bedford as have two of the Super herdlet.
36: PtP
Just one more correction: Eastbourne
If GB had done his homework (or had someone to do it for him) he would have known that he was writing to and speaking with an army family and not got into the mess that he did.
48. He looks a bit weird.
And it looks like he’d always appear to have a moustache even if he had electrolysis on his upper lip to kill the hair follicles.
Sure he’s a nice guy though.
28 Scream. ARSE - Apols for the temporary loss of service. This is due to leaves on the line near Bedford and a significant increase in pie production. However we hope to have an improved service shortly !!
58 ‘54 - I think it would, without doubt.’
Nonsense. Up until the point The Sun switched allegiance, New Labour couldn’t get enough of News International; Ministers and high level politicians were happy to neck champagne with them at the conference party until the phone calls started to come through from worried apparatchiks. Would they really try and wreak revenge on the owners of so many influential news sources; I don’t think so.
69 Noted with thanks, Financier.
Eastbourne then…as in Osbourne.
Here are the top ten seats (in no particular order) we’ll be following most closely at Ladbrokes, based on betting activity so far:
Watford
Eastleigh
Buckingham
Llanelli
Brighton Pavilion
Hampstead & Kilburn
Ashfield
Brent Central
Lancaster & Fleetwood
Morley & Outwood
Richmond Park
60. or even Betfair ?
Oh. That’s eleven.
I don’t understand why Brown is eliciting so much sympathy. Tony Blair had to contend with a significant phalanx of grieving parents angry about the war in Iraq, several of whom were openly affiliated to the Stop the War campaign and one of whom ran against him in the 2005 election. They gave bruising interviews, but I never heard anyone say they felt sorry for Blair; nor did I hear angry denounciations of them for being politically motivated. It was Blair’s war and he was deemed to be fair game. Afghanistan is now Brown’s war; the evidence that soldiers are under equipped and under resourced is steadily mounting. He then sent an ill advised, badly presented note to a grieving parent that was more of a provocation than a balm. He should have shown better judgement. Why is it that so many people feel *sorry* for Brown? He always seems to be singled out for special treatment somehow.
74 Shadsy. That wouldn’t be the TITAN Watford would it ??
I hope Luton South will be in part 2 or 3
55 - whilst not wanting to get into the detail of your prediction for Edinburgh N&L Mark Lazarovich is no Russell Johnson!
65 - This and the cosy relationship Brown and Blair had with Murdoch and co, much to the distaste of the vast majority of Labour activists. I don’t think future Labour leaders will spurn the Sun or anyone else, but they will be far more wary of the Murdoch media than was previously the case.
Is Plaid Cymru particularly strong in Brighton then?
O/T Daily Mirror Eurosceptic now?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/columnists/parsons/2009/10/30/undemocratic-eu-is-just-the-job-for-greedy-tony-blair-115875-21785740/
61 Southam, I agree but for different reasons.
Rupert M is 79 next March. He’ll be 83/84 by time on next election and it’s likely it’ll be James Murdoch openly in charge but the other Murdochs and shareholders will have input - the sole proprietor model of Rupert is unlikely to be sustainable once he steps back.
Without Rupert, with the media have moved from newsprint to TV/multimedia the friendship of the publisher mogul may be much less important after this election, definitely will be after the following one.
The recording of the phone call is truly a case of the engineer hoist with his own petard. Gordon Brown has plans to record all our phone calls, all our emails and all our blog posts, so he deserves no sympathy whatsoever. If the call had not been recorded you can well imagine the NuLab spin machine swinging into action, claiming that a few avuncular words from the PM had sorted Mrs Janes out good and proper. Anyone in her precarious situation would be well-advised to record everything, and make it public before it is distorted.
Having said that, I’d rather see Brown run out of town by the electorate rather than by Mr Murdoch. Will he be attending the 20th anniversary celebrations this Christmas in Bucharest?
53. I think it’s someone yet to enter parliament, like Blair himself was at this equivalent stage in 78/79.
Anyone got thoughts on Labour losing Durham to the LibDems?
Durham City 2005:
Labour 20,928
Liberal Democrat 17,654
Conservative 4,179
Veritas 1,603
I suspect that the Dead Millionaires Tax will play very well in Eastbourne… it will be Tory come the next GE.
72 - I think they would do just that. They have been badly burned.
Put it this way, there is now no reason for them to oppose restrictions on how much of the media one organisation can own. Some will spin that as an attack on press freedom, others will spin it as a move towards greater plurality of ownership. In the great scheme if things, not many people will care.
81 Wishful thinking there Southam Observer. Future Labour leaders will carry on behaving as the current ones have; the ‘vast majority of Labour activists’ may desperately hope otherwise, but they’ll be disappointed. These are politicians we’re discussing here.
68 - Bear in mind tim that the super 6 aren’t necessarily saying what they think will happen - they’re merely saying what the best value bets are. I don’t think the Greens will win BP either, but the odds look attractive.
Missing evidence from Ofsted (and who is in charge of them?)om the Sharon Shoesmith case. It won’t look good if the 70 page evidence was deliberately withheld, but it could be a cock up.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/8352566.stm
88 MM. Are the Tories even getting dead millionaires to vote for them. Wow !!
80. A Voice from Lothian - Mark Lazarovich is no Russell Johnson!
Indeed not!! (I was actually a constituent of Johnston’s back then. I even wrote him a letter once.)
But please note that Johnston WON. In contrast, I tentatively propose that Lazarowicz will NOT hold on (although it will be extraordinarily tight).
This is got me looking through all my betting positions.
Apart from StJohn, am I the only person that has backed at least 15 different people to become the next Labour leader?
77 Agreed. Brown has a lot of blood on his hands and down his trousers.
Only compared to the coagulated solid mass of blood that is Tony Blair does Gordon Brown pass for a clean human being.
85 - This Con MP has his the nail on the head:
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/brown_letter_errors_an_allegory_for_afghan_mission_says_tory_mp.html
‘He added: “We can’t write a letter correctly, we can’t get the right equipment and as far as I’m concerned, we don’t have the right strategy”.’
How can people have faith in this government & PM if he canot even spell the surname of the mother of a dead soldier? They cannot, the spin & smear operations carried out by Downing Street, just add to peoples fears. I
t is like a play ground bully, Labour can dish out smears, but when the media’s guns are turned on Labour they cry foul.
Southam O if the transcript is not as bad as you expected then listen to the recording.
I have just listened to the full version rather than the clips and my ghast is truely flabbered.
Mrs Janes comes from a long line of infantry I believe and she should be a sergeant she is so strong, but the tremble in her voice shows that controlled as she is she is very, very upset.
Brown seems to think he is talking to some minor player who needs to be put right.
87 - Highly likely I would have thought looking at those shares.
91 - Disagree, the Greens need to jump from 20% to 35% ish in an election dominated by the economy and potentially changing a Govt.
Can’t see it happening and wouldn’t take less than 7/2
77 - Did you not fell sympathy for Blair when he was assailed on TV by the MMR hoaxer?
He even met her afterwards to try and make her fell better.
Urgh
77. Quite clearly, Brown is getting a much harder time than Blair ever did.
83. “Is it not grotesquely undemocratic to have some gurning fool and his hideous, rhino-bum wife swanning around the world in our name when we never asked them to? ”
Eh? THIS?! “Rhino-bum wife” ?!
From the Mirror?!!
100. No.
87 - In the Euros, according to vote 2007, Labour still came first in the Euros in June in Durham
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=2427.105
97. I like the playground bully analogy John, spot on.
87. Jamei
Paddy Power - City of Durham
Liberal Democrats 5/6
Labour 5/6
Conservatives 100/1
60- Ghost. I hope he will be out as otherwise I will have wasted both my and approx 50 hunters from neighbouring constituencies time. We are going on the streets to canvass and leaflet for Hannah Foster (Breadshaw’s Conservatiev oppostion). However you are a right the prospect of a split opposition is real worry, personally I would not be surprised if the Lib dems won it rather than Bradshaw holding it.
I wonder if Richard could explian why He thinks Bradshaw will hold the seat- it would be intersting.
60- Ghost. I hope he will be out as otherwise I will have wasted both my and approx 50 hunters from neighbouring constituencies time. We are going on the streets to canvass and leaflet for Hannah Foster (Breadshaw’s Conservatiev oppostion). However you are a right the prospect of a split opposition is real worry, personally I would not be surprised if the Lib dems won it rather than Bradshaw holding it.
I wonder if Richard could explian why He thinks Bradshaw will hold the seat- it would be intersting.
100 tim.I make it 6-4 each of two and 4-1 Labour in B.Pav.
I have Layed 2.40 and 2.20 GREENS with my own bare hands.
103. Personally I can no more imagine feeling sympathy for Blair than I could for someone like Adolf Eichmann.
Apologies for double post- dunno how that happened.
100 I didn’t take less than 7/2, Tim.
87/104 - This is the post i was refering to
Round-up:
Highest Tory share: 28% Darlington
Highest Lab share: 30% Sunderland
Highest LD share: 26.5% Newcastle
Highest UKIP share: 25.5% Hartlepool
Highest Green share: 7.5% Newcastle
Highest BNP share: 13% South Tyneside
Lib Dems 1st in Northumberland and Newcastle
Labour 1st in North Tyneside (just), South Tyneside, Durham, Sunderland, Middlesbrough
Tories 1st in Darlington, Redcar & Cleveland, Stockton
UKIP 1st in Hartlepool
On these figures Labour appear to be vulnerable in Tynemouth, Stockton S and Middlesbrough S and E Cleveland against the Tories, and against the Lib Dems in Blaydon, Newcastle North, Newcastle East, Durham City, and possibly Wansbeck. Tory claims in Sunderland seem to be a little optimistic as they were more than 10% behind citywide.
12. You appear to have inadvertantly inserted an additional two letters in the final word of that comment.
Shadsy
Did you see my request a couple of weeks ago?
- Dumfries & Galloway
- Argyll & Bute
- Stirling
83 ‘Here’s the thing – how can you be the President of 531million people when you have not been elected to the post?’
Did Parsons make any objection when Brown was similarly anointed as PM?
60 Ghost - That bet on Exeter was on Paddy Power’s market about which ministers would retain or lose seats (strictly speaking, it’s a bet on Ben Bradshaw personally, not the actual seat, but they’re effectively the same thing unless he legs it). I don’t think the market is available any more; I got 4/6 on Bradshaw winning, which I thought was pretty good value.
Of course, he is vulnerable - if he were not, the odds would have been much shorter. But as I pointed out above at 8, one of my goals has been to reduce overall risk by finding some offsets to my (predominant) bets on the Conservatives. If Bradshaw does lose, I’d expect to clean up on other bets in the portfolio.
107. max - thanks for the local knowledge - still cant find any odds though ?
77. Bravo PollyB. 100% agree.
They say they feel sorry for Brown because almost unbelievably, pathetically, shamefully, that is the ‘line’ that Labour seem to have spun this morning to the media.
The decision seems to have been go for pity. ‘oh for chrissakes give the man a break, he is trying his best’ a defence so feeble, so cringeworthy and so awful that it has never before been necessary in mainstream UK politics.
Stuart
Thanks for your comments on Scottish seats.
The ‘panel’ is a bit Anglocentric, unintentionally of course. Personally I find Scottish seats very difficult to read and tend to avoid them in my betting. Your help is therefore very welcome.
116 EdP. Er …. our PM is not elected to the post. The PM is appointed by the Sovereign as being the candidate most likely to secure a majority in the Commons.
113. TSE, “Durham” in that context is the whole county, not the Durham City parliamentary seat. If Labour hadn’t finished first in County Durham that would have been a SERIOUSLY bad result.
I reckon the Lib Dems have got an excellent chance - also remember last time around the PM (Blair) was from the next-door constituency which probably helped the Labour vote.
Southam - a quote from Rupert Murdoch yesterday (in his anti-Google speech which seems to have gone wider)
“Murdoch also said he regretted that his British papers had stopped supporting Gordon Brown. In September, the Sun switched its allegiance from Labour to the Conservatives after 12 years.
“The editors in Britain for instance have turned very much against Gordon Brown, who is a friend of mine. I regret it,” Murdoch said. ” He has been an unlucky man. But you know, the end of 13 years of one-party rule, the idea of change is probably good.”
Does bear out that Rupert wasn’t sure but James made the decision to switch. Sounds like Rupert isn’t really interested in UK much any more.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/nov/10/rupert-murdoch-google
117. Thanks Richard - seems strange that no bookies offering odds on Exeter (yet) ?
121 JackW, you know what I mean. No need to nit pick
122 - Thanks for that Sandy, apologies for the conclusion, guess I shouldn’t multi task whilst at work.
110. Exactly.
107. I’d have thought Hannah Foster (nee Parker) would just pip it.
It was a Tory seat before 1997 all the way back to 1970 and was historically so before.
Labour will split several ways. The Tory vote has not dropped below 27% - even in the worst years - so if Hannah can get her vote up to 35%+ she should get it.
126 - Conclusion = confusion
120 PtP. “.. panel ..”
Hhmmm. Is that as in “thick as a plank” ?!?!
Any pber want 3-1 Labour at Brighton Pavilion ? I will Lay 4.0 for £100 on Betfair.
Just put up your request and I will match it pronto.
I think what is the great unknown is the cross currents of votes. Doubtless there will be some voters who failed to vote Labour last time who will return from whence they came. Where these voters are could be interesting. What polling is showing is that the Conservatives at any given time can garner between 38-42% of the vote. How that vote is spread will determine the overall outcome.
The Lib Dems are the absolute key to this election. They achieved 22% last time. I suspect that they could match it and lose seats, push it up a notch and lose seats or drop a bit and gain seats. It all depends on where former Lib Dems go and where Lib Dems pick up extra support. I suspect that what is also critical is the subterranean movements where Lib Dem voting patterns shift massively but it doesn’t impact the outcome or where the Lib Dems take share off Labour to the benefit of the Conservatives or someone else.
I think on that basis in some seats there is a massive capacity to get burned.
Coral - Who Will Be The Next Permanent Labour Leader?
Alan Johnson 9/4
David Miliband 4/1
Ed Miliband 6/1
Harriet Harman 6/1
Peter Mandelson 9/1
James Purnell 14/1
Jon Cruddas 14/1
Andy Burnham 16/1
Jack Straw 16/1
Alistair Darling 20/1
Ed Balls 20/1
John Denham 25/1
Hilary Benn 33/1
Yvette Cooper 33/1
Alan Milburn 66/1
Charles Clarke 66/1
John Hutton 66/1
John Reid 66/1
Re. Durham. I think I’d still incline to Labour on that one. As with many university dominated seats the Lib vote was boosted by students attracted to the anti-Iraq/ no tuition fees platform. They don’t have that kind of appeal in 2010, though at first sight it looks a Lib gain.
Catty stuff from O’Glaza, High Labour Delegate to the Murdochracy, on the Boulton Blog:
The Sun’s Political Editor Tom Newton Dunn has just spent the entire Politics Show over on the Beeb calling Labour’s Phil Woolas “Andy”
Easy mistake to make no doubt, but not as easy as calling Jamie Janes Jamie James!
Talk about the teapot calling the kettle black.
The more the constituency betting is reviewed the more the JARHEAD result seems possible! My mad punt of £50 on the LDs getting 100+ seat at 50/1 might yet be a winner. The outcome of the Tory v LD battle in the SW is very important to this bet.
BetFred.com - Lib Dem seats?
0-9 50/1
10-19 33/1
20-29 16/1
30-39 11/2
40-49 7/2
50-59 11/4
60-69 4/1
70-79 8/1
80-89 14/1
90-99 16/1
100 Or More 20/1
135. Goupillon - “The more the constituency betting is reviewed the more the JARHEAD result seems possible!”
Agreed.
The constituency betting is FAR more favourable to the Lib Dems than the seats markets.
In fact, I have noticed another extremely odd finding: Shadsy has a market on Scottish Conservative seats, but as far as I can see the individual constituency markets are predicting a worse night for the Scottish Tories than Shadsy’s prices would otherwise indicate!
They cannot both be right.
135. “My mad punt of £50 on the LDs getting 100+ seat at 50/1 might yet be a winner.”
I think the second word in your sentence is the key to that prediction.
O/T EU High representative - Sorry long post
Baroness Ashton? Not a chance.
Contrary to several posters on the last thread, I understand (from Brussels contacts + europeabn press) that Milliband REALLY declined the job, not pretended to do so fearing defeat. He would have got the job if he had not told clearly to Rasmussen and Schultz he was not interested.
Now would Ashton be offered the job? certainly not.
As I pointed out a few weeks ago on this board,you have to consider three factors:
- unanimity among governments
- reasonably high profile candidates (no less than PM or Foreign ministers, current or past)
- divide of the positions between the EPP and the SEP
- balance between small and big member states
As the EPP has now apparently a lock on the top job (most probably Van Rompuy, outer chance for Balkenende), the SEP is busy finding a credible candidate for High Commissioner.
Believe it or not, Milliband is much appreciated in Brussels and had large support, especially as he is supposed to be very high profile (don’t laugh).
You have to remember than in most of Europe, socialists or social-democrats are in opposition and thus the new generation is not very well known and the older generation is, well, a bit old.
Ashton would be a very illogical choice: she is not and never has been a PM or foreign minister and is as anonymous as you get (even with the potentially formidable Trade portfolio).
The point (made by some British journalists) about “compensating Britain” for not taking Blair is just laughable. Do you really think the EU feels in any way that it owes to confer one of its top jobs to the UK?
No, the real “compensation” is all about having a President not very well-known and from a small state (typical of the EU). Bigger member states want one of their own in the second job.
Thus it is no surprise that the names mentioned in Brussels circle were Milliband, D’Alema, Solana and Guigou, socialists from big member states with a reasonably high profile in Brussels.
Of the four, Guigou is the weakest candidate and France won’t push for her (also French socialists, routed in June elections, are very weak in the SEP), aiming to get one of the “big” portfolios in teh Commission instead.
Soalana is the incumbent and has already served 10 years. He has actually said pretty clearly that he was not seeking the job.
With Milliband out, D’Alema thus seems the logical choice. I wouldn’t bet on anyone else.
127 Casino you are right on the old boundaries- my fear is that with true blue topsham now not in the seat then its much more difficult. Antony Wells’ notional figures show The cons on less than 25% I believe. Note I am not saying that Bradshaw will not loose his seat its just that I suspeect it might be a Lib Dem gain.
To my great surprise, the HYS on the BBC re Brown apologygate is overwhelmingly against the Sun and pro-Brown (ish)
WTF?!? I can only assume the Beeb tipped off the bunker with a beta version of the site so they could all write something and vote for each other’s comments. Bizarre. For me this is just about the worst thing Brown has done (amongst many) and shows him in an appalling light.
141. Probably the staff posting - they hate Murdoch more than anyone
140- Scrub that, I am completely mad, I was confiusing the lib dem share with that in another seat. In Exeter at 20% in third place they don’t stand a chance. Foster needs a 9% swing to win it though- quite a big ask. I agree though taht if anyone will take the seat itwill be her.
136
Is that not free money? Looks incredibhly generous for 40-69 LD seats, all at better than 3-1. Can’t see them going below 40 and a small saver on 70-79 means free money doesn’t it?!
I freely admit to not fully understanding this betting lark so please do correct me…
141 - McGabble been kept busy this afternoon!
11/4 is NOT better than 3-1
135 Goupillon. I’ve noted before but I think it bares repeating that the Lib Dem seat total is far better assessed on an informed seat by seat basis rather than a flirtation with Baxter and the like.
I recently revised my operating spread on the Lib Dems to 58-62 which is the largest gap I’ve had from the spread firms.
Oops
144- 11/4 (50-59) is worse than 3/1 (which is the equivelent of 12/4).
141 Jon C, I suspect it’s simply that most people haven’t read the transcript or heard the call, they just know that he wrote to offer condolences, then phone to apologise for a spelling error, and is now being given a good kicking by the Sun.
If that was all I’d heard about the story I’d feel sorry for him as well. In fact, I sort of do anyway - not because he’s being given a shoe-ing when he only ever tried to do the right thing, but because from reading the transcript it seems painfully clear that the man does not know how to talk to another human being. Which is a familiar feeling if, like me, you work in IT
140. True. I forgot that. But aren’t the Lib-Dems on the back foot in the South-West?
A city like Exeter staying Red next year just doesn’t compute. I’ve visited many times and nothing about it as ever struck me as remotely left-wing. Those raw 2005 numbers are almost like a Northern safe Labour seat - but this is Devon for Petes sake!
Hannah needs to try and hoover up as many UKIP votes as possible and run an excellent GOTV operation. Maybe she could then pull up to 34-35% and pip it.
But she needs Gordon Brown to stay to do it.
149
yep…
I am buttoning my coat as we speak
700 jobs to go in Coventry - Ericsson
139. Chris - thanks for the analysis. I read somewhere that old Eastern Bloc states {Poland especially)are not keen on D’Alema because he is an ex Ccommunist. Also is there not a strong feeling that a woman should get a top EU job? In what way is Guigou a weak candidate - is it because iy is thought she would not be very good at the job or is her backing weak?
re Exeter boundary changes..
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 21503 (43.6%)
Conservative: 12296 (24.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 9985 (20.2%)
Other: 5585 (11.3%)
Majority: 9208 (18.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 14954 (27.2%)
Labour: 22619 (41.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 11340 (20.6%)
Green: 1896 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1854 (3.4%)
Other: 2405 (4.4%)
Majority: 7665 (13.9%
140 max u - The LibDems would come from third place on the UKPolling notionals, which seems a bit unlikely given their recent relative weakness in the SW. Of course you may have much better local knowledge.
More generally, it’s a fairly safe seat on paper (Tory target 176 according to Anthony Wells), with a split opposition to Labour, which is why I thought 4/6 good value. Of course, I very much hope to lose this one!
It would be a good seat for Shadsy to price up, though - clearly there’s plenty of room for different views on this one.
122 It would have been a catastrophic result, given that Labour have led in Durham since 1919.
My views on the seats are:-
West Lancs. Con gain
Worsley and Eccles South Lab hold
Holborn and St. Pancras Lab hold
Eastleigh Lib Dem hold
Brent Central Lab hold
Bristol West Lib Dem hold
Leeds NW Lib Dem hold
Oxford East Lib Dem gain
Rochdale Lib Dem gain
Edinburgh South Con gain
Westmoreland Lib Dem hold
Bedford Con gain
Cheltenham Con gain
Dunfermline Lib Dem hold (gain)
Eastbourne Con hold
Wavertree Lib Dem gain
Edinburgh North Labour hold
Bethnal Green Labour gain
Exeter Con gain
Glasgow NE Labour hold (gain)
Southampton Itchen Lab hold
Glasgow East Labour hold (gain)
Llanelli Lab hold
Brighton Pavilion Green gain
The Curse of Jonah strikes again.
He visits the Ericcson factory in Coventry in February
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/3036818
And Today
ERICSSON today announced it is pulling nearly all its operations out of Coventry, with up to 700 city job losses.
Staff at the Swedish firm’s new base at Ansty Park near Walsgrave have been given the devastating news.
http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/2009/11/10/ericsson-announces-700-job-losses-in-coventry-92746-25133988/
Fitch sparked a fresh round of sovereign rating shenanigans on Tuesday, with a declaration on Reuters Television that among large developed countries still rated triple-A, the UK was “potentially most at risk” of losing its gilt-edged designation.
The other countries rated triple-A by Fitch are the US, Germany and France.
David Riley, co-head of sovereign ratings at Fitch, said the UK’s parlous situation reflected the fact that “it faced the largest budget adjustment”.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/11/10/82496/uk-most-at-risk-of-losing-its-triple-a-rating-fitch-says/
127 Unlike a lot of other university seats, the Conservatives haven’t been wiped out in Exeter, so I think they’ll take it. The County results were very encouraging, particularly as there’s a big UKIP vote to squeeze.
A few points
1)
Anyone who thinks the Sun recorded Gordo (I have heard the whole tape) cant be right, the quality of the tape is dreadful.
2)I think this story has now run its course. time to lay off Gordo until the next Brown error. It wont be long in coming, thats for sure.
3) Brown’s letter shows more about how badly No 10 is run than anything else
4) I should think that views on Browntape/lettergate are equally split for and against.
5) Brown’s been heading for a crash ever since his father of the nation stuff at the Labour conference in 2007/ no more spin rubbish. It was bound to get him, but its been several car crashes instead of just the one.
Eastleigh is an interesting one, I think the assumption that Huhne’s name recognition will help is off the mark. It will certainly boost him. I suspect that it could be very tight, and I think we will know more how it is going by how much Huhne is allowed onto the national campaign. If there is a sense that he is not as prominent as he could be then there is a clear indication that he is down in his seat fire fighting.
I can see the rationale for expecting either outcome, I think we may possibly head to recount territory on Eastleigh.
160. Bloody students.
For me this is just about the worst thing Brown has done (amongst many) and shows him in an appalling light.
I’d say destroying our pensions and sending hundreds of Britons and thousands of Iraqis to their deaths just about beats an inappropriately defensive phone call…
Off the Subject for a moment.
Obama is getting to be a more dithering president than even Jimmy Carter.
News is he wont sign on troop reinforcements for weeks yet.
And the Western World is seeking protection under this Americas umbrella?
OMG we’re all in the shit!
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/11/09/world/main5592551.shtml
164 It’s hard to decide what’s the worst thing he’s done. There’s so much to choose from.
But, I think he’s been ill-treated over this story.
132. That market is 40% overround! Now I accept that that doesn’t mean there isn’t any value (a no-hoper being seriously underpriced could lead to a significant overround while the genuine candidates are still available at ‘proper’ prices), but that’s still pretty poor.
That said, the top seven excluding Johnson (I really don’t think it could be him and 9/4 is way too short), are the equivalent of 2/5. That’s not a bad return but does exclude Johnson, Straw, Denham, Burnham and Balls, none of whom are dead losses. If Mandelson is also excluded (he’s in the Lords and despite current legislation under discussion is highly unlikely to return to the Commons in time for an election), that pushes the combined odds on the other five out to 8/13.
162. A not insignificant amount of the Tory vote in 2005 was personal - the county council vote held on the same day was even higher for the Lib Dems - and they have further tightened their hold on Eastleigh since at local elections.
This will be an easy LibDem hold with Huhnes majority in the thousands.
166 - The ruining of the public finances and our pensions system and the his wonderful financial services authority have got to be the top 3 contenders.
Something like Smeargate and Lettergate havent done long lasting damage to the country.
168 - Eastleigh has been a Lib Dem seat since about 1994 in a by election. On what are you basing your assumption of a personal vote for the Conservative in 2005?
169. Oh come on - he is world statesman of the year !
154- Goupillon
Indeed the weakness of d’Alema is that he was for decades a member of the communist party of Italy (PCI). However there are two mitigating circumstances he could use:
- the Italian party was not closely aligned to Moscow, developing their own “eurocomunism”. In particular, it can be pointed out to eastern europeans that the PCI didn’t support the Soviet intervention against Czechoslovakia in 1968.
- he is actually on the architects of the transformation of the PCI into a center-left party (currently named Democratic Party)
As for Guigou:
- she never was Foreign minister or PM. She was french Minister for Europe in the eraly 90ies, then Social Affairs Minister and Justice Minister in late 90ies early 00ies.
- In national politics, she has not been anything other than an opposition backbencher during the last 7 years. She actually had to retreat to an extremely safe constituency in Paris poorest suburbs after being defeated as mayor of Avignon (Provence).
- she is respected as something of an expert of european affairs but is hardly unanimously liked in the French socialist party, which as I said has very little influence at the moment in the SEP.
- her strength is that she is close to Jacques Delors (she chairs his “Our Europe”foundation) but it can also mark her age: at 63 she is much more associated to the ‘glory years’ for federalists (the early 90ies) than to current debates.
137 - “The constituency betting is FAR more favourable to the Lib Dems than the seats markets.”
I found when trading these markets last time round (for Ladbrokes where I was employed at the time) that the Lib Dems were well-backed everywhere, sometimes by prominent Lib Dems themselves. This naturally shortened up the prices in individual seats whereas the overall seats betting wasn’t so one-sided (though 70-79 and 80+ were still our worst results IIRC).
Overall we probably broke even with the LD punters; they had some big successes (North Norfolk), near misses (Islington S & Finsbury) and some embarrassments (Orpington).
141 Yes it’s fishy to me. Every one of the most recommended posts mentions the Sun.
Exeter 2009 Euro result
C – 22.4%
UKIP – 21.1%
Lab – 15.9%
LD – 15.5%
Green – 12.0%
BNP – 3.3%
C – 7,679
UKIP – 7,214
Lab – 5,451
LD – 5,294
Green – 4,103
BNP – 1,146
143. A critical factor in Exeter will of course be how the local Lib Dems behave - will they try to help Labour out, or not?
Labour will likely try to offer running paper campaigns only in some local Lib Dem seats/targets in return (as they did in 2005), although given their anyway shambolic state in most of the region this might not be enough….
175. Other factor for Exeter - when does Uni term end ? Could there be a difference between a GE in May and June if term is finished ?
164. But the best thing he did was - what he does best - dither for so long on the Euro as to almost guarantee we’d never join.
The worst?
I reserve most of my anger for things that are practically irreversible in the short/medium-term: massive debts, irrevocable European treaties and socially destabilising levels of mass immigration.
173. Aaron - out of interest did a fair bit of cash go on the Lib Dems to win West Dorset last time round? I’m aware of a least a couple of Lib Dems who got their fingers burnt…
There are some odd comments on the Evening Standard website, somehow correspondents appear to believe that the mother’s actions debase her late son’s memory, and that she has betrayed him. But for some reason Brown is also praised to the hilt.
TSE. Perhaps Ericsson had lost the contract for the bouncing mobile phone?
164
sorry badly phrased. I meant presentationally the worst really. He was not so conspicuously awful whilst robbing our pensions, and I agree with what you say.
He is just not a normal person, with empathy and understanding. For a politician he is appalling.
170. Conor Burns. He ran a very good and energetic campaign.
The difference in results on the day between the General and County Council was striking.
And Eastleigh has swung further to the Lib Dems since.
It is now a Lib Dem stronghold. Make no mistake.
I’m assuming that Peter from Putney got significantly better odds that the 1.21 currently on offer for Glasgow NE. Way too short especially given how this week has started.
Labour still have to get significant numbers out on the day to win even with the postal vote bump. Some of the splinters could still eat significantly into their core given that their is now no Martin loyalty vote.
School closures (by the Lab council) in the area is still a significant local issue and one which could affect labour support.
What’s the vibe within the SNP camp?
David Kerr didn’t sound overly confident in the herald hustings which is below if anyone is interested.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/audio-glasgow-north-east-by-election-polcast-hustings-1.931511
My God! Shoesmith may get away with it due to Ofsteds bungling.
This Government and it’s Quangoes cnt seem to do anything right.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/8352566.stm
180 - One of our clients is one of ericcsons biggest supplier, and we’ve been half joking about expecting this for a while.
He’s often maintained that if the PM did have a mobile phone, for security reasons it would probably be a motorola, something about them being very secure, designed for police forces and the army etc.
I posted this on the last thread, but used my shorter name, so it got stuck in moderation:
All you need to know about Gordon Brown is contained in one sentence:
‘An “infallible” method of cheating your way into bring-a-bottle parties is to “use a carrier bag of empty cans with two half-bricks at the bottom”.’
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23391907-how-to-scrounge-off-the-state-by-gordon-brown.do
The man is a total shit.
179 - I can’t recall specifically but there was money everywhere for the decapitation strategy, even in Folkestone & Hythe. We definitely won overall on the decapitation seats with only Westmorland & Lonsdale going their way.
182. But CR hasn’t that marked contrast between local and constituency voting in Eastleigh been present for some time? It didn’t start in 2005.
The local vote share changes since 2005 aren’t massive either, though it’s true to say the Lib Dems have advanced. I still think this one could be closer than many expect.
184 - Talking of bungling Quangos,
Statistics from the Student Loans Company (SLC) indicate that as many as 70,000 students could still be waiting for financial support.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/8352544.stm
Did some googling re: Edinburgh and the Euro results were amazing:
SNP - 21.4%
Con - 19.1%
Lab - 17.8%
LD - 17.3%
Green - 13.7%
Others - 11%
That’s city wide, but just goes to show how marginal Edinburgh is. What a contrast to Glasgow.
189 (cont) It is only a 3-4 weeks until the end of term at many unis.
172. Thanks Chris - that seems to concur with this article fro Le Monde. Although how much are the ex Eastern Bloc countries objecting to d’Alema I wonder.
http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2009/11/10/les-hesitations-de-david-miliband-attisent-les-convoitises_1265220_3214.html
I have £50 on Milliband at 5/1 and I have not given up yet!
Worsley and Eccles South is going to be one of the most interesting tussles of the next election. It’s not historically tory territory (that’s putting it mildly) but it’s a new seat which combines the best Tory bits of the old Worsley seat and the old Eccles seat. It’s a seat going through a big demographic change, with lots of new private housing being built in Irlam and Cadishead; and also a seat going through a cultural shift; mining in the Worsley and Walkden areas disappeared long enough ago that there is no longer a ‘natural’ culture of Labour voting, the desirability of the areas has been improving, and the Conservatives have been making great strides hereabouts and won most of the council seats covered by the new seat last time around. Lastly, the Liberal Democrats are pretty weak in the area, leaving the Tories to hoover up most of the anti-Labour votes.
180
http://theorangepartyblog.blogspot.com/2009/11/watching-wounded-dog-die.html
Sixth paragraph:
“The Orange Party said yesterday - the only view that counts is that of a grieving mum. Not the Sun nor a Downing Street dirty ops brigade trying to flood newspaper comments pages with the ‘line to take’.”
Whether a Labour spin team is trying to ‘flood newspapers’ or not, the McBride saga rumbles on like the echo of the ‘Big Bang’
Aaron
Noted with thanks but, sadly, Sir Clement Freud is no longer with us. That may make a difference.
166. I also think the Sun is coming out of this much worse than Gord. Even if one doesn’t, though, it’s hard to see how this could be considered “the worst thing Brown has done”. It doesn’t even make the top hundred.
183. Labour are apparently well ahead on the postal votes that have already been counted. It would be utterly astonishing if they come close to losing on Thursday. 1.21 is still quite tempting.
‘Labour are apparently well ahead on the postal votes that have already been counted.’
Really? Remarkable.
198. watch out for the register..
196 I think it’s 50/50 myself - how the Sun plays their next soldiers story will frame the next stage of the narrative.
Six boys came home for the last time today - that will be front and centre in tomorrow’s edition.
188. Eastleigh Council:
Lib Dems: 38
Cons: 4
Labour: 2
It was 32, 9 and 3 respectively in 2005. Eastleigh Tories have lost over half of all their seats in less than 4 years in what were bumper Tory years.
The local Conservative Association is useless, the PPC highly questionable and the area has been solidly sewn up by Huhne since 2005.
No hoper.
177 Exeter Univ. Spring Term: Mon 11 January – Fri 2 April
Summer Term: Mon 3 May – Fri 18 June.
174. This is one of the classic comments on The ES site - “Her son was a hero whose memory is being sullied by his mother’s actions. He joined up knowing what sacrifice he might have to make and I can only imagine he would be ashamed of his mother’s behaviour now. I know she is mourning, but she must know what she is doing. And the Sun is back up to its usual, ethically dodgy standards of journalism. Reminds me of why the population of Liverpool turned on it when it failed to respect the dignity of the families and of the dead during a football crowd catastrophe a few years back.”
The logic is beyond satire.
196 - They aren’t allowed to count postal votes before polling has finished.
196 I’m sure they’re also well ahead on postal votes that have yet to be cast.
202. Speaking of Hillsborough - have the files been shown yet ??
What I want to know is, what does Ezio, Auditore de Firenza and hatstand of the year, say?
203
S’okay.
They counted ‘em before they went in the letter box.
Best next Labour leader prices (Sporting Index prices derived from the spreads):
David Miliband 11/2 (Victor Chandler)
Ed Miliband 6/1 (Coral)
Alan Johnson 43/7 (SPIN)
Harriet Harman 22/3 (SPIN)
Peter Mandelson 47/3 (SPIN)
Jon Cruddas 47/3 (SPIN)
Jack Straw 16/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
James Purnell 16/1 (Ladbrokes)
Alistair Darling 24/1 (SPIN)
Ed Balls 24/1 (SPIN)
Andy Burnham 25/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Victor Chandler)
John Denham 25/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Victor Chandler, Coral)
Yvette Cooper 40/1 (Paddy Power)
John McFall 40/1 (Paddy Power)
Hilary Benn 49/1 (SPIN)
Shaun Woodward 50/1 (Ladbrokes)
Douglas Alexander 66/1 (Ladbrokes)
Jim Murphy 66/1 (Ladbrokes)
John McDonnell 66/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Victor Chandler)
Liam Byrne 66/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)
Peter Hain 66/1 (Ladbrokes)
Diane Abbot 80/1 (Paddy Power)
Alan Milburn 100/1 (Ladbrokes)
Caroline Flint 100/1 (Ladbrokes)
Charles Clarke 100/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Victor Chandler)
Frank Field 100/1 (Ladbrokes)
Geoff Hoon 100/1 (Ladbrokes)
Hazel Blears 100/1 (Ladbrokes, Victor Chandler)
John Hutton 100/1 (Ladbrokes)
John Reid 100/1 (Ladbrokes)
Parmjit Dhanda 100/1 (Ladbrokes)
Tessa Jowell 100/1 (Ladbrokes, Victor Chandler)
Tony Blair 100/1 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)
Bob Ainsworth 200/1 (Ladbrokes)
Des Browne 200/1 (Ladbrokes)
Jacqui Smith 200/1 (Ladbrokes)
Ken Livingstone 200/1 (Ladbrokes)
Ruth Kelly 200/1 (Ladbrokes)
Sir Alan Sugar 200/1 (Ladbrokes)
Stephen Twigg 200/1 (Ladbrokes)
Alastair Campbell 500/1 (Ladbrokes)
Kitty Ussher 500/1 (Ladbrokes)
Nick Palmer 500/1 (Ladbrokes)
Cherie Blair 500/1 (Ladbrokes)
208. Hattie is the value - if the current voting system stands.
200. But the vote shares have been pretty stable in local elections at Lib Dem 46-50, Con 29-32, Lab 12-14 since 2002 or so.
The local Lib Dem machine is clearly pretty efficient and has been picking off extra seats over the years with good targeting. And yet at the GE level they came close to losing in 2005, and the seat has always been much more marginal than the local results suggest it should be.
It’s easy to say how well Conor Burns did last time now (and indeed he did), but how many people seriously thought he would even get close before the 2005 election - very few I would think.
203. No?
I think suggestions of dodgy dealings are probably unfounded on this occasion. Labour don’t need to cheat to win this one.
21. Jeez.
As tim would say “its [sic] a car crash”
209 - You could back everyone up to and including John Denham, and provided the winner was among the ranks of those front runners, you’d still turn a profit. That in itself shows how confused a market this is.
Just heard that PMQs is going back to the 3pm slot - did I hear this right?
202: “‘…he would be ashamed of his mother’s behaviour now. I know she is mourning, but she must know what she is doing.’ … ‘And the Sun is back up to its usual, ethically dodgy standards of journalism.’”
Sadly, in their hysteria and bitterness, Labour supporters have sought to use this sorry episode as part of their vendetta against Murdoch and The Sun - and if that means sullying the character of a grieving mother of a dead serviceman then so be it.
204. What makes you think the ones they’re counting now were “cast” ?
210. Well, I helped in the campaign. Most of us actually thought he would win it - even Ashcroft was confident.
Conor was well known and liked locally and, sadly, Maria Hutchings has none of those advantages.
214 - WRF?!?!? Where did you hear this?
216 In a manner of speaking, anyway.
Unexpectedly, having now read the transcripts, I feel empathy with both parties.
The phone call seems to me an honest attempt by Brown, a man sadly lacking in people skills, to make up - as best he can - for a misjudged letter, and to deal with the emotionally impossible (i.e. a grieving mother of a dead soldier venting personal anger at politicians).
No politician would prosper in that situation, I think Brown did OK, and he sounded sincere (in the transcript); the error was the original letter, which was maladroit and slapdash - but that is hardly the greatest of sins.
Conversely, the mother comes across as very sensible, articulate, well-informed, and passionate (in a good way); far from the deranged harridan some lefties have tried to depict.
And let us never ever forget it was this same woman, the mother of a brave young son killed fighting for us all, that Roger told us was “atrociously behaved” and a “shit”.
That was perhaps the single most unpleasant and disgraceful remark I have ever seen on pb. And I should know, I’ve made a few myself.
Anyway I suspect the end of all this will be status quo ante, the number of people sympathetic to Brown will equal the number of people angered by his clumsiness. So he will carry on being the most despised prime minister in recent history.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/11/what-the-sun-left-out.html
Just after the section where she attacks the lack of helicopters, the tape reveals that Mrs Janes relayed the horror of the coroner’s description of her son’s every injury.
“My son had no legs from the knee down. My son lost his right hand. My son had to have his face reconstructed. Do you understand Mr Brown, lack of equipment?”
….
Given that Number 10 are reluctant to allow his words to be put out, that means that the BBC, ITV, SkyNews and Channel 4, would have to use an actor to read out Mr Brown’s words.
217: ‘…even Ashcroft was confident.’
Talking of Ashcroft, any Labourites disgruntled about how The Sun is treating Gordon should read Ashcroft’s book about how The Times, another Murdoch organ, actively collaborated with the Parliamentary Labour Party to smear him and bring and him and Hague down. Now that episode was truly chilling!
221 - Bad move from #10 not letting media use Gordo parts.
214, from the radio/TV? And do you mean on a permanent or temporary basis?
224
Temporary
Nov 11th only
218/224 Simon Mayo said it was from tomorrow and so they’d have to tweak his programme.
I was only half listening and trying to find a link.
225, why? And what’s the source?
Waugh on the Cam speech
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/11/cam-says-the-state-is-squeezing-out-human-kindness.html
“Human kindness, generosity and imagination are steadily being squeezed out by the work of the State.
“There is less expectation to take responsibility: to work, to stand by the mother of your child, to achieve, to engage with your local community, to keep your neighbourhood clean, to respect other people and their property, to use your own discretion and judgement.
Why? Because today the state is ever-present: either doing it for you, or telling you how to do it, or making sure you’re doing it their way.”
225 Any reason why?
219. Reminds me of that clip from Gordon Brown’s Downfall - Glasgow East: “But, meine fuhrer, we are still working on the postal votes.”
228: Good stuff….
R5
Simon Mayo was talking about arrangements being made because tomorrow is Rememberance Day.
b****r!
You’ve got me wondering, now…
228. “Why? Because today the state is ever-present: either doing it for you, or telling you how to do it, or making sure you’re doing it their way.”
Not only the British State either. The EU is getting much more pervasive too.
208 Caroline Flint 100/1 (Ladbrokes)
Looks appealing, if GB goes through to March / May whoever takes over will be a) younger and b) Not too tainted with GB. As a woman she may get the support of many just to stop Harperson
221 CiF have a thoughtful piece on citizen’s journalism - that just as Mrs Janes’s friend thought to switch on voice recorder on the blackberry so politicians and those in the public eye need to realise that we can all now easily record or film. There can be no assumptions on private conversations in any public or semi-private arena.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/10/sun-jacqui-janes-gordon-brown
On a brighter note, there is some seriously good news that I hope will lighten everyone’s day: I HAVE SOURCED SOME DECENT CHINESE WINE
I know a lot of you were worried for me, having to endure my time here in the Himalayas with just beer and scotch, but happily, today, I found a rather approachable Chinese Cabernet Sauvignon. Bizarrely enough it’s made just five miles from where I am staying, the grapes comes from “the highest vineyards in the world”, supposedly.
It’s called Vintopia, and it’s notably pricey - £20 - (and this is in China) - but it’s like a not-half-bad Aussie Cab Sauv, and given that it was made at 12,000 feet, probably by hilltribes, I confess myself impressed.
OK I’ll shut up now, and drink my wine.
No I won’t, I might also say that I went to the most extraordinary National Park this afternoon. China’s first ever National Park, instituted two years ago. It is truly truly stunning.
Here it is:
http://www.nature.org/wherewework/asiapacific/china/work/pudacuo.html
221 After seeing the transcript i think she’s ace - i thought it was just her being upset over the letter but seems to me now she’s trying to do her bit over the helicopters.
234, suddenly the surveillance state isn’t super anymore.
For what it’s worth I don’t think the conversation should’ve been released. But I also think Labour have f*** all room to bitch about it.
That transcript is horrific. He has no idea how to treat her, and it’s like he’s at the dispatch box.
I can’t understand why No10 just didn’t let the story die.
Ted @234: Interesting article.
If you haven’t heard it before, it’s also worth listening to Jamais Cascio’s talk on the Participatory Panopticon.
http://itc.conversationsnetwork.org/shows/detail375.html
234 What I find curious is that in desperately poor countries, the mass of people are used to doing things for themselves, without seeking help from the State (which wouldn’t help them in any case).
A feature of a society becoming more prosperous is that people want the State to do more and more for them.
Yet, you’d think that the richer people got, the more willing they would be to do things for themselves, because it’s easier to do so than if you’re poor (and indeed, in all rich societies, the rich rely on the State for very little). But the reverse happens. Why is this?
Good blog by Waugh on Major at the select committee. I expecially like the footnote..
“FOOTNOTE*: Charles Walker, a Tory member of the committee, was a bit star-struck when Major appeared. “I was going to call you Prime Minister. I almost stood when you came in,” he said.
But Walker also came up with one of the most self-effacing quotes I’ve ever heard any MP utter.
Describing why he thought he would never make a minister, Walker said:
“I’ve no management experience. The idea of me running a [Whitehall] department is quite laughable.”
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/11/sir-john-major-on-sugar-the-sun-and-a-possible-comeback.html
240 That Select Committee was a stunner - Major was superb - I wonder if Cameron has something lined up for him… do hope so, I always liked him.
192 Punters should take note of that le Monde article, expecially this bit:
Le ministre de l’industrie de Gordon Brown, Peter Mandelson, a fait discrètement tester l’Elysée afin de promouvoir sa candidature. D’après un proche de l’ancien commissaire européen au commerce, le premier ministre britannique “risquerait une crise cardiaque” s’il devait se séparer de ce précieux soutien à quelques mois des élections législatives.
My translation:
Gordon Brown’s Minister for Industry, Peter Mandelson, has discretely sounded out the Elysée Palace with a view to furthering his own candidature. According to a source close to the former European Commissioner for Commerce, the British Prime Minister ‘risks suffering a heart attack’ if he is deprived of Mandeslon’s precious support just a few months before the general election.
Has a former Prime Minister ever served in someone else’s Cabinet?
240 - Charles is my MP, he has always eschewed the idea of climbing the greasy pole. Which I think is admirable.
243 - Yes the last time being Home who was Foreign Secretary under Heath
241 - is it online anywhere ?
240, cheers for the link, ’tis interesting reading.
Sean Fear @239, I think you’ve answered your own question. In poor countries, the government is more likely to be corrupt, and the people less likely to be well enough educated to keep an eye on it, so it’s less likely that the government will govern in the interests of the people.
Alternatively, you could turn this around: Once you get a government that manages to govern consistently in the interests of its people, that country becomes a rich country.
243 - Douglas-Home was Heath’s Foreign Secretary, which I believe is the most recent example.
246 - Yes go to the Parliament website and the link to the session the video is on there or it was a little while ago
Here’s a pic of Pudacuo National Park, my latest fad.
http://www.fotopedia.com/items/flickr-2111891957
If anything, the photos don’t do it justice, cause they can’t reveal what lies all around - enormous Himalayan peaks and plateaux, inhabited by wildly colourful hilltribes all wearing their own dress and speaking their own language.
Plus this Alpine Eden sits at 12,000 feet of altitude, and yet it is also close to the tropics. It makes for a kind of fertile harshness, a lush desolation. It’s stunning.
[239] - In poorer countries you generally have much lower rates of urbanisation. Consequently, people are nearer to the land, and more able to support themselves in a subsistence style, independent of government.
In a richer country people are more dependent on possessing money, as a medium of exchange to obtain food, housing, etc. They are much less able to fend for themselves because the principal means to do so - land for cultivation, and the knowledge/skills to work it - are not available to them.
You also will find that in richer countries people will not tolerate slums [they depress house prices...] so it’s not possible for people to get hold of a few relatively cheap pieces of sheet metal and build themselves a shelter, etc.
So it would seem that the opportunities to be entirely independent of help from the State, in the absence of a healthy and secure income, are more absent from rich countries than they are from poor ones.
It is a bit strange.
That pic reminds me slightly of one I took in the Lake District in January/February this year (mountains reflected on a lake). Looks a bit sunnier though
[252] - “..fend for themselves without money…”
244 - the comment put me in mind of Jaqui Smith saying hse wished she’d had some training when she first became Home Secretary, having had no experience.
http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=5135
Link to John Major thing.
239. “A feature of a society becoming more prosperous is that people want the State to do more and more for them.”
Sean - isn’t it more that people want *someone* to do more and more for them the more prosperous they get?
I think it’s laziness. Most Westerners have no pressing worries. They have a warm comfortable home, wide choice of food, entertainment and access to pleasurable indulgences.
They have no need to worry about everyday life and so have little to no habit of worrying about anything else - in order words needing to be responsible - particularly if they have a job or lifestyle which requires little or no responsibility; such as unskilled manual or basic bluecollar roles.
I think it’s different for professionals and middle/upper-middle classes as they have jobs that require decision-making, judgement, responsibility, accountability self-discipline and personal rigour.
But if you’re of a lower-income group responsibility, decision-making and worrying about tomorrow is an alien concept and sounds like too much like hard work.
Therefore they want someone else to do it for them.
248 That’s almost certainly true, up to a point, but I think we’ve now passed that point.
These days, in many rich countries, we have governments that really do seem to think they can micro-manage peoples’ lives for their own good, and which are increasingly unaccountable to the populations they govern.
I think it’s an interesting counterpoint to the argument that increased prosperity is bound to make a society freeer.
255 - no amount of training could have helped her, though.
Oh, and cheers James Burdett and Aaron. Answering questions like that are what pb.com is for.
243. AndrewG - “Has a former Prime Minister ever served in someone else’s Cabinet?”
Yes. Carl Bildt:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Bildt
TIMBOT’s very quiet this PM. It must have been a good lunch with Dolly Draper.
261. That’s an impressive display of geeky one-upmanship Stuart!
253. The skies are preternaturally azure, because it is so high up. It’s foggy and rainy in the summer (apparently) but in autumn and winter the clouds disperse and you get that almost painful blueness.
The wildlife is also something else. 20% of China’s biodiversity survives here, in a few dozen square miles.
262, did Maguire attend? (In a personal capacity, of course).
Assuming a Tory election win, I think Cameron would be wise to offer Major a role; the Cabinet is going to be pretty light on experience in terms of people who have done senior jobs in government before save for Clarke, and to an extent Hague. It might normally be an issue (e.g. why Thatcher would never have offered Heath a job), but Major seems a genuinely decent man (arguably too nice to be PM) and probably someone who wouldn’t interfere with Cameron doing the number one job.
262 - Maybe he has been redeployed to fight the good fight on various comments sections?
252, 257.
Probably true, but consider, our standard of living is probably 250% higher than it was in 1945. Logically, you would have expected welfare spending to fall over that period, as people got richer. Instead, welfare spending has increased, not just in real terms, but as a proportion of national income. And this was in a society that was already urbanised, not shifting from rural to urban.
264, I visited a forested mountain in China when I was there. It was very surreal, because it was warm (35C, give or take) but rained constantly, so it was really refreshing.
265 - Toilets hasn’t squeaked online since Letter-gate broke.
263.
Politics Geeks R Us
251 Lucky chap. There is something so especially wonderful about the Himalayas that the words to express that haven’t yet been crafted.
Liked the bird pics too. Very jealous of you seeing black-necked cranes - quite a mega in world birding terms!
Are you going to get to the Tiger Leaping Gorge?
John Major looks pretty good for 66, it must be said.
One for the Black Jack players on here - wow
In the game of Bl@ckj@ck, if you get past 21, you’re out. But in the world of p0ker, 21-year-old Joe Cada is set for life, after becoming the game’s youngest ever world-champion - winning a cool $8.55million (£5.1m) in the process.
Cada made what experts call a ‘nearly impossible comeback’ before winning the World Series competition today.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1226617/Youngest-poker-champion-plays-cards-right-walks-away-5m-jackpot.html#ixzz0WTLajvFd
251 — Wow!
270: Being about as vocal as his stint on HIGNFY on friday then.
267 - That or another bad Labour story is going to break in one of the papers tomorrow?
275 - Bunker is probably in such disarray they haven’t got anything to feed him.
Also, you could say, rather depressingly, that it requires* an interventionist State to regulate human behviour/interactions when we start to mostly live in urban areas, and have to mix with each other, and become more reliant on each other.
Very little of my life is supported by my own labours. I pay other people to provide me with food, energy, just about everything. The State has grown to regulate these exchanges.
Can you be self-sufficient in a city? It’s not really possible.
* Although whether it does or not is an interesting question
Thanks everyone.. got it now.
273 - Major looks better at 66 than Brown does at 58, Major actually looks better than Blair who has 10 years on him.
280 Put it down to that special Currie diet he was on…
251. seanT
That photo of Pudacuo National Park looks just like a Scottish loch. Apart from the exotic species of tree in the foreground.
280 I suspect that’s what 12 years of being paid well and pampered buys you. And the fact he could never go grey.
Paddy Power - Morley & Outwood
Labour 1/2
Conservatives 6/4
Liberal Democrats 100/1
284, ooh, narrower than I expected for the Tories.
Come on, Calvert! Oust the goggly-eyed thug Balls!
272. I don’t know where I’m going next. I’m looking for Tom Knox locations (doing quite well so far) and I am tempted by the Heaven Villages of Deqing - they are even deeper into the mountains, on dangerous roads. But the name is so alluring….
Apparently they have this name cause the villages are smothered in fog so thick for half the year the mist enters the houses, so people sit knee deep in fog, watching the telly. Like being on a cloud in heaven.
That tempts me. But I am also tempted by Tiger Leaping Gorge, and also the jungles of Xishuangbanna, or the wild druggy Myanmar frontier towns like Riuli, or the museum cities of Dali and Lijian, etc etc etc.
So much Yunnan, so little time.
Re the cranes, the poignant thing is that you see them as soon as you fly into Shangri-La. The plane banks over Napahai lake, one of their main breeding grounds, and you can see these shimmering white flocks underneath, cruising over the wetlands. Very affecting.
245. Balfour - FS under Ll G, not in War Cabinet.
Balfour - Ld President under Baldwin 1925.
Chamberliain - Ld President under Churchill June - Oct 1940?
Two Questions:
Could ScottP give me some detail on why he thinks Holborn & St Pancras will be a conservative gain? I live there and campaign for the Tory candidate so wonder on what Scott’s belief is based.
Betting ignorance question - do odds expressed as “Conservatives 6/4″ mean that for every four pounds you bet you get six back if the bet is succesful?
Amusing Cartoon about Labourites complaining about Gordo’s conversion being recorded.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AyG15tuYiRY/Svlfm30shyI/AAAAAAAAAkc/iI72SedR3RQ/s1600-h/surveillance+state.jpg
288. six back plus your 4 stake = £10 total.
Ms Sylvester’s take on the Sun and Gordon
“Yesterday Gordon Brown had to apologise for misspelling the name of a soldier in a condolence letter to his mother. But the real problem is not the Prime Minister’s handwriting, but the Government’s failure to persuade the public that this is a war worth fighting…”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/rachel_sylvester/article6910172.ece
248. “Once you get a government that manages to govern consistently in the interests of its people, that country becomes a rich country.”
Yeah. Wish we could have one of those here.
141: jon C - the Mail online comments were similar. Most people do seem to feel Brown’s been pilloried unfairly over this, partly because they were pleasantly surprised to hear he’d been writing handwritten condolence notes in the first place.
85: History boy - “Gordon Brown has plans to record all our phone calls, all our emails and all our blog posts, so he deserves no sympathy whatsoever.” - er, no. The status quo is that the police can check who you telephone and email without a warrant, but not look at the content (without a warrant). The proposed change is to make it easier to check whom you email (by making ISPs) keep the info for longer, but still not look at the content.
My personal view is that it should actually require a warrant even to look at the recipients. When I raised this a year or so back I was told that it’s such an integral part of police work that it’d clog up inquiries with paperwork to a massively counter-productive degree. I’m not convinced, but the issue is muddied by erecting the straw man that there’s a proposal to legalise reading the contents without a court order.
240. This part of the blog puts Brown/Labours current troubles in perspective -
Third, when Labour MP Paul Flynn asked Major if he had been “sickened” by the Sun’s treatment of Gordon Brown in the past 24 hours, he replied (to guffaws):
“I didn’t have particular problems with The Sun. I had problems with everyone.”
___________________________________________________________________
Despite all of Browns recent troubles, the fact is he and Labour still haven’t suffered anything close to the humiliation and cruelty dished out to Major and the Tories in the mid 90’s. And I don’t remember Labour complaining at the time.
268 “Logically, you would have expected welfare spending to fall over that period, as people got richer. Instead, welfare spending has increased”
The welfare state created the Guardianista class whose economic self-interest is tied up with the preservation and extension of the public sector e.g McNulty married to £225,000 a year Ofsted woman.
257 - “… if you’re of a lower-income group responsibility, decision-making and worrying about tomorrow is an alien concept and sounds like too much like hard work.”
So speaks a Tory. That is absolutely classic
268. Sean - it’s simple. People are lazy and can’t be arsed. They get used to others doing things for them - and then want more.
To many of people the Conservative message of making your own decisions and taking more responsibility for your own life sounds too much like hard work.
Any government which offers to take risk and concerns away from the individual - with the consequence of higher state spending - will be attractive to certain groups of individuals even once their basic needs are met and this provides an impetus to increasing state involvement still further.
The fact it doesn’t work isn’t considered. I find myself shaking my head when the BBC and Government bodies lazily trot out how “millions” of children are in poverty in this country.
They are not.
251. Do any members of these “wildly colourful hilltribes…wearing their own dress and speaking their own language” ever travel to Peking, spend all their money, wind up sitting in a pool of their own urine in shop doorways drinking Special Blew and shouting at themselves, and gab on about “Yunnan oil”?
If so - small world.
292 I think we did once. Still, we (and all rich peoples who don’t live under dictatorships) get the the governments we deserve.
293
OK well I disagree. I had some sympathy with him over the misspellings, assuming it was his handwriting or possibly some functionary in his office who had messed up.
But the transcript of that phone call is toe-curling. You cannot argue like that with someone whose son has just been killed, and it is not the right time or place to debate helicopters however right you feel about it (and i am not qulaified to decide about helicopters).
He just needed to be sympathetic, humane, to listen and to apologise like he meant it.
He did none of those things.
293. NPMP. The police have no way of knowing who I send letters to. Why should they have a right to know who I send emails to?
294 - What humiliaiton and cruelty? Then, like now, it was mostly self-inflicted.
293 ‘The status quo is that the police can check who you telephone and email without a warrant’
NPMP, I note with interest that you name the police specifically, and leave out the other organisations who ,as a matter of course, eavesdrop upon most electronic communications in this country.
“I find myself shaking my head when the BBC and Government bodies lazily trot out how “millions” of children are in poverty in this country.”
Not in the way that my parents would have understood the term “poverty” when growing up. Of course, their lives may be hellish in non-material terms.
262/265 It was definitely Draper having lunch at the British Library. No idea who his companion was. Tried to do some earwigging but failed - the place is too noisy. I’d never make a good spy.
As for Brown maybe the public will feel some sympathy (pity?) for him until the next soldier dies in Afghanistan. Then we’ll all remember the real issues.
288 vulpus - I obviously can’t speak for Scott, but it’s worth emphasising that betting on an outcome is not the same as predicting it will happen.
Think of a bet on a throw of a dice. If someone offers you 10/1 on the result being a Six, the bet is well worth taking, but will still probably lose. On average, five times out of six you would lose the bet; but one time out of six (on average) you’ll win more than enough to compensate for the other five losses. If you are able to place bets like that regularly, over time you’ll make a consistent profit.
Thus the whole art of betting is to try to find bets where the odds offered by the bookies are more generous than they should be according to the ‘true’ probability. Of course, judging what the ‘true’ probability should be is not easy, and in any case the bookies are generally sufficiently skilled not to get it blatantly wrong too often.
In the specific case of Holborn and St Pancras, the best odds currently available for the Conservatives are 8-1, meaning that the bet is worthwhile if there is a better than 11% chance of winning. Anyone placing that bet won’t be surprised to lose it, but may still think it worthwhile.
293. Lame, very lame thinking.
264. 20% of China’s biodiversity survives here, in a few dozen square miles.
“Biodiversity”? I’ve never heard it called that before, you wh0remongering jackanapes.
299 - The governments you get in a democracy (or this one at least) tend to govern in a way that favours those who vote for them over those who do not. The one exception may be during a time of general war - ie, WW2.
296. Yes. I am a Tory. And I have met many individuals like that in my lifetime. I also find that most people with me as well.
If they weren’t they wouldn’t vote Labour would they?
Many, many people “expect” to be looked after.
“millions” of children are in poverty
remember its measured on average income.
So every time Man City sign a Brazilian on £200k per week a few more kids slip into poverty….
310 - Absolutely, the lower income classes make no decisions at all and take no responsibility. The poor are all feckless and it is entirely their own fault.
I see from Paul Waughs blog that Cameron is to make his hymn to Phillip Blond speech tonight.
Word of warning.
Don’t take a Thatcherite seriously who intrpretes it as anything other than the end of Thatcherism, and don’t take seriously any simplistic Labour attacks on it as Thatcherite.
I see Yvette Cooper is already making the latter mistake.
299 You’d think so, but I think that even that is only partially true.
OT The url says it all.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2009/nov/10/knitted-jewellery
315 - That was at 313, not at 310.
@290 - Thank you
299. Let’s hope we have one again.
304. “Of course, their lives may be hellish in non-material terms.”
Absolutely Sean. Agree 100%.
What vexes me the most is how Labour persist in seeing poverty almost purely in financial terms.
This isn’t Dickensian 19th Century London. The crippling poverty children suffer now is that of emotional nourishment, safety and security.
@309 Thank you also and I see the point you make. I suppose the next question would be how have the odds arrived at 8/1 rather than say 100/1 but I guess that is a question for the bookies
313 - The danger for Cameron is twofold.
1.A harking back to a mythical golden age which never existed, Majors imbecilic romance with brown and cream railway carriages led to the lunacy of his Railway Privatisation programme.
2.He ignores the basis of Blond’s critique which is that any rolling back of the state must also involve the recapitalisation of the poor (bottom 50%), without which any pretence at a shift of power is simply a move of resources from State to Charity/Quango.
318 - not sure all posters would appreciate that link Plato, but I do. Thanks.
307 Sean Fear. Yes. Visit the slums in Bombay or mountain top villages in Yemen if you want to see child poverty. My unremarkable and reasonably happy lower middle class childhood would probably be deemed one of child poverty these days. I think word inflation of this kind does a huge disservice to efforts to address real poverty, child or otherwise.
321 - Is it wrong, then, for Cameron and the Tories to attack labour for failing to meet child poverty targets?
304. Because they can.
313 In my professional life, I used to be a ‘recovery’ job specialist - someone brought in when teams had become lazy/difficult/entitlement orientated/thought they were doing the company a favour by being there.
Buying off or giving in to the toddler tendencies of human nature results in the same behaviour - that’s exactly what a nanny-state does to the population.
I often used the expression that your salary wasn’t an attendance allowance - you had to earn it by delivering on your side of the deal.
This was usually met with cries of AH! Not Fair! and within a few days, the most realistic members of the group would step forward and say - yup, you’re right, what do we need to do to change things for the better?
And then the rest would usually follow.
I did this sort of work for 20yrs and never met a group that didn’t respond to some hard-headed common sense and being treated as adults. My most challenging mob were described to me as ‘on your first day - bring a machine gun’
Turning people into babies does no one any favours.
the monthly ComRes survey of councillors has an interesting question this month making reference to a Cameron speech and asking which quangos should go!
RDA;Homes & Communities Agency; Tenants Services Agency; Equalities & Human Rights Commission; Ofsted; LSC; Audit Commission; standards Board; Highways Agency; JobCentre Plus; CABE; Infrastructure Planning Commission; Care Quality commisssion; Sports Council; Arts Council; Environment Agency….think that was the full list…….
my default position was “Abolish”….but retracted and went for “Retained” for five.
I’m sure many on here would just have stuck with my default position.
Some other Con-based questions…to which my general reaction was “stupid”!
325 - It’s kind of like when peple talk about Zanu New Labour, isn’t it? It bears no relation to reality and devalues real suffering.
326 I don’t think that there should be such things as child poverty targets. How can a government pledge to end something which (in the government’s own terms) is incapable of beind ended, as it’s based on being below a particular percentage of median income?
316
That last thing Cameron will be doing is taking any advice from you.
315. Wasn’t 310 aimed at NPMP at 293?
Southam Observer: you predictably miss the point. Sean Fear was asking why the welfare state was continuing to expand. I was providing an explanation of why certain groups might desire it - because the less experience you have of responsibility the less inclined you will be to desire more of it.
You love to paint your prejudices of Tories onto real ones and put words in their mouths. Where did I say the poor are feckless and its entirely their own fault?
That’s a stupid thing to say. I do think there are a group of people - several million strong - who can’t be bothered to work because they don’t need to and see little incentive to. But that is very different to what you’re putting in my mouth.
Perhaps you would care to enlighten us as to how Labour’s expansive welfare state - which has further entrenched a dependency culture - encourages responsibility and decision making?
311. lol, yes, sorry, the phrase is a bit…. minty, but I am knacked after spending all day trekking and driving and crane-spotting and monk-donating and altitude-sickness-getting and drinking boiling water with old Lisu women in their weird beautiful dingy Tibetan barn-cum-houses with flattened pigs’ faces hanging from the ceiling to cure (no kidding) therefore I took a short cut to say what I wanted to say.
How about…. there’s a f*ck of a lot of animal and plant shit, going down in Potatso. There. That’s better.
330 I had exactly that conversation with Anna Raccoon a few months ago - and Labour have attempted/may have succeeded in making it legally binding.
It can’t ever be acheived for the blindingly obvious reason that its a moving target as you say.
328 - Absolutely. My problem is when people start talking about this in class terms as Casino Royale did at 259. Once you do that, you look like you are seeking to entrench privilege on the basis that those who are rich deserve it because they work hard and take responsibility, while for those in lower income groups, and I quote, “responsibility, decision-making and worrying about tomorrow is an alien concept and sounds like too much like hard work”.
It’s Zanu Labour, not Zanu New Labour.
330 - “How can a government pledge to end something which (in the government’s own terms) is incapable of beind ended, as it’s based on being below a particular percentage of median income?”
Whether it’s an appropriate target or not it is certainly not a mathematically impossible one.
334 - “It can’t ever be acheived”
Why not?
326. Yes.
What Labour have done is concentrate on a very small % of families below their arbitrary 60% of AHI target and focused on giving them just enough tax credits to lift them *just* above the target.
They can then declare they have “lifted” X number of families out of poverty.
I think that is misleading, disingenuous and totally misses the point.
Getting people off benefits into employment, stable families, strong civic communities, low crime and a safe environment is the critical factors to alleviate the real human poverty in lower income groups.
331 - As you clearly don’t understand what Cameron will be speaking about, and where the philosophical basis of it comes from, why not be quiet for a while instead of posting your usual empty knee jerk responses.
Iain Martin has an interesting post asking when is it too late to dump Brown?
http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2009/11/10/gordon-brown-resignation-when-is-it-too-late/?mod=rss_WSJBlog
337. If its on take home pay then the 50% tax band will lift thousands of children out of poverty at a stroke - huzzah for Labour.
330 Sean Fear. A thought experiment. If one were to delink child poverty targets from medians and to make them real, what would be on the list? A home, adequate food, access to education, adequate clothing? Then what - heating in winter? Access to fun/a childhood? How far up Maslow’s hierarchy of needs would a definition go?
340. Ooooooooooooooooooo, thats quite bitchy.
342 - The 50% tax band will have zero effect on median income whether on gross or net pay.
337/338 Because there are always bound to be people who receive less than 60% of the median income.
322 Yes, Vulpus, the bookies study the form and assess the odds accordingly. The smarter ones even visit this Site for clues, which is why it’s not a good idea, generally speaking, to oppose Ladbrokes.
I had a look at Holborn but I can’t offer you much hope, I’m afraid. Your problem is that you have to come from third place. A Labour collapse is possible - although sitting MP Frank Dobson is popular with his constituents - but the obvious beneficiaries will be the LDs. The boundary changes would also tend to help them rather than the Tories.
Labour look fairly solid on this one, so the odds of 8/1 [an 11% probability] on your guy don’t seem very generous.
Sorry, but don’t want you to lose money.
337. “All must have prizes”. I blogged about this lefty delusion once.
indeed I’d link to this fairly unamusing essay what I wrote - but I can’t, because I’ve just realised my own blog is blocked by the Great Firewall of China.
There, that’s at least one example where authoritarian Beijing did you all a good turn.
345. median not average ? Then that truly is madness..
even if you think it is ‘poverty’ as opposed to below average income it is not child ‘poverty’ you address by increasing benefits but families with children poverty.
Some kids get a lot less money and (perhaps more importantly) time spent on them even if their parents get the same amount of money as other parents.
Soemtimes by just throwing money at certain families you are at best perhaps eradicating cigarette poverty judging by the number of benefit claimants smoking all day long
332 - You said:
” think it’s laziness. Most Westerners have no pressing worries. They have a warm comfortable home, wide choice of food, entertainment and access to pleasurable indulgences.
They have no need to worry about everyday life and so have little to no habit of worrying about anything else - in order words needing to be responsible - particularly if they have a job or lifestyle which requires little or no responsibility; such as unskilled manual or basic bluecollar roles.
I think it’s different for professionals and middle/upper-middle classes as they have jobs that require decision-making, judgement, responsibility, accountability self-discipline and personal rigour.
But if you’re of a lower-income group responsibility, decision-making and worrying about tomorrow is an alien concept and sounds like too much like hard work.”
How else was I supposed to take it? Maybe you did not mean to say it in the way you did, but it reads to me like you think those that do less skilled jobs (ie, the less well-off) do not have responsibilities, do not make decisions and do not think about tomorrow; while professionals and those with skilled jobs (ie, the better off) do take responsibility, do make decisions and do think about tomorrow. In other words, it’s the poor’s fault they are poor because they do not work as hard or take responsibility like well-off people do.
296. “My personal view is that it should actually require a warrant even to look at the recipients. When I raised this a year or so back I was told that it’s such an integral part of police work that it’d clog up inquiries with paperwork to a massively counter-productive degree.”
The NSA Call Database contains trillions of records and increases by billions per day, and the terrorist watch list contains in excess of 1 million people with all the associated numbers, email addresses and so on that require checking. GCHQ will have a similarly large programme. The volume of traffic analysis work is so large that individual warrants would bring it to a halt, and a blanket warrant would offer little protection.
“I’m not convinced, but the issue is muddied by erecting the straw man that there’s a proposal to legalise reading the contents without a court order.”
I think you are being naive if you believe that the courts impede such work. Certainly in the US despite strict orders to avoid listening on US citizens the rules invariably left large loopholes, normally related to foreign involvement in the communication. In an era when virtually all communication is likely to involve a foreign system or border crossing signal such legal loopholes would allow total surveillance. Where legal protection exists the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court has rarely denied a warrant.
There simply is not substantial technical or legal protection for the majority of communication. I dare say the UK position is much the same no matter what our Ministers may say. Britain’s not ranked by Privacy International as the most surveilled society in the EU and one of the worst in the world for nothing.
235. Interesting piece in the Guardian about the rightness or otherwise of the use of a grieving mother. For all those who have phoned a company at and received the message ‘This call may be recorded for training purposes’ would have assumed like me that taping a call without permission was a breach of the data protection act.
As for the cant on the previous thread-laughably even from the hypocrite’s hypocrite SeanT- I stand by everything I said about the mother and I would feel the same if the politician in the dock was Mrs Thatcher. A ‘kiss and tell’ is something for footballers one-night-stands and Katie Price.
Nice people don’t whatever the circumstance.
346 - I would guess that there always has been people earning less than 60% of median income in modern times but there is no reason why that has to continue. It is certainly not impossible to end it.
340 TIMBOT, neither do you. So why don’t you follow your own advice and shut up as well?
343 That’s an interesting question. Some of those things can be accurately defined in material terms, but others are too nebulous (eg access to fun/a childhood). An additional reason for not setting targets (apart from the one I gave at 330) is that so many of these goods really depend on the quality of one’s parents, rather than being the responsibility of the State.
346 - Ah not strictly true. If everyone earns the same then everyone is on median income and so nobody is on less than 60% of median.
349 - No, median makes much more sense than average.
FPT.”Virtually all our casualties are foot patrol IED deaths - terrrain capture and control and little this or the next government can do will change that.”
JackW, I think that there has been a high percentage of those killed by IED’s while in vehicles too. Transporting troops by helicopters does carry inherent risks as well, but for speed and the element of surprise, they must be better than road transportation? I am no expert, but don’t the Taliban spies observe the movement of the British troops by road and then radio ahead to their colleagues who then have time to plan for those foot patrols?
I stand to be corrected if this wrong?
Last winter while my brother was out there, it was at times mud fest. We had to rush out and buy him wellies after he phoned and requested them, and then they had to be sent separately in two parcels I kid you not.
So a child who’s non smoking parents income is 60.1% below the median is in poverty buy a childs whos parents spend £100 a week on booze and fags but take home 59.4% below median are not in poverty ?
354 In all but the most theoretical terms, I think it is impossible to do so.
360 exactly
328. Spot on Plato.
335. Oh for God’s sake SO.
I said “lower income groups” - not “Working Class”.
I was trying to make a distinction between those most likely to be dependent on, or desiring of, a big welfare state and those who do not. I was then trying to explain why they might not desire LESS of it.
So put your class warfare sword away.
Prat.
352. Good for you, Roger, standing by what you said about Mrs Janes.
But there may be some here who are unaware what you said about this recently bereaved mother of a 20 year old son, her son who had his legs blown off, and his arm blown off, and his face ripped apart, and then he died anyway, defending you and me and this country.
So for those unlucky people who didn’t witness your pearls of wisdom the first time - this is what you said about this young dead soldier’s grieving mother.
You said she was “atrocious” and you said she was “a shit”.
356 Sean Fear. Agree entirely. In addition, it’s probably also situational - what makes one poor in New York City would probably qualify as indescribable riches elsewhere, so once the very very basics are met materially, parents and environment are probably the key influences.
353 I think she has every right to be not ‘nice’ given that her son wa skilled in a pointless political war and ,in her view, becasue of a lack of proper equipment. She also has a right to be not ‘nice’ because the PM who in her view casued her sons death (if indirectly) coudl not be bothered to make sure he spelt either her or her sons name correctly.
361 - Not at all, what’s the theoretical minimum means-tested income as a percentage of median income for a family today? Raising it to 60% would be expensive and require political will and public support but it would not be practically difficult.
353 Roger, mercifully few, if any of of us here have had to endure the misery that the soldier’s mother has suffered. How many people do you know who’ve had their child returned to them, dismembered as a result of military action? How do any of us know how we’d react in that situation? To say what you did about her was truly disgusting. You should know better.
366 The fact that Gordon Brown sems incapable of saying sorry (even for this) shows he is unsuitable to be PM
Tim
I happen to know what Cameron is talking about, but my point still stands, any suggestion of you offering advice in a “word of warning”, is plainly risible.
363 - It’s not me who is accusing people on lower incomes of not taking responsibility, not making decisions and not thinking about tomorrow.
You are directly linking people’s earning capacity with their fecklessness or lack of it. It’s classic 19th century Conservatism and seeks to link earning capacity with personal morality.
from conhome
The Save General Election Night early day motion has now attracted 216 signatures from MPs of all parties in the Commons, which is a pretty impressive number: only 20 of the 2,569 other EDMS tabled this session have attracted more support.
Yesterday, former Cabinet minister John Gummer tabled an amendment to the main motion, laying the blame for the danger to General Election Night on the Government for the changes to postal voting rules it has brought in over recent years.
His amendment reads:
“in addition notes that the failure of the Government to put into position proper safeguards against the fraudulent use of postal votes; further notes that the rules regarding postal votes are the reason for the difficulties in counting votes in the traditional manner; and calls on the Government to change the arrangements for postal votes to make it possible for local authorities to complete their count on Thursday night.”
354 Neil. I think the only way to guarantee that no-one earns less than 60% of the median income is to ensure that no-one earns more than 167% of the lowest income. This can easily be achieved through punitive taxation. But that hardly makes it desirable - we’d all eventually end up on no income.
315 PtP - What do you think of the 8/15 on Labour in Holborn & St P?
CoffeeHouse has a post on the government’s fiscal problem.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5525643/two-elementary-mistakes.thtml
Giving extra weight to the views of grieving parents inevitably leads to situations like this
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8349954.stm
A father who had been fighting to stop a hospital withdrawing life support from his seriously ill son has dropped his objections.
The one-year-old, known as Baby RB for legal reasons, was born with a rare, genetic muscle condition that makes independent breathing impossible.
The hospital was backed by the baby’s mother.
Both parents, and until the last view hours taking an opposite point of view.
Those on here who want to argue about military strategy would be a bit more dignified if they did it without waving shrouds around.
There’s always someone with an equally valid shroud with the opposite point of view.
373 - “I think the only way to guarantee that no-one earns less than 60% of the median income is to ensure that no-one earns more than 167% of the lowest income.”
That’s not true. Median is completely unaffected by the distribution of income amongst the very highest earners.
351. Ok, SO, how about this:
I think people are generally lazy. The less responsibility they have the less responsible they will act.
Responsibility is less prevalent in everyday life the lower down the income scale you go because more is provided for you and employment generally require a lower level of responsibility.
Generally jobs that pay at, or close to, minimum wage do so because they are simple jobs that require little expertise or skill and little responsibility. I think unless responsibility is something you are used to it can be a scary idea and you will put up resistance to it.
How have you twisted this into it’s the “poor’s fault they are poor”??
Simple: you have done so to fit your prejudices about Tories.
Maybe I could have phrased it better but I think most people would realise precisely the point I was making.
I would be delighted if everyone wanted to be free and independent of the state but, sadly, I think there are many who do not want to be.
368. People like Roger do not deserve to be secured by people like this woman’s dead son, and yet of course they are.
The paradox of liberal democracy and a volunteer army is that the best can die in defence of the worst.
379 - People died to protect you in your heroin addiction, crime and absentee fatherhood Sean, Roger’s views hardly compare with your parasitism.
374 Looks about the right price to me, Richard.
Labour should hold but there’s no more than a smidgeon of value in that price so I won’t be risking the hard-earned.
If Dobbo were to step down, I might be interested in a small dabble on the LDs but otherwise it’s a solid hold at about a 70% probability.
Can’t see the Tories coming from third.
Nick Griffin going to Wootton Bassett today should kick ‘lettergate’ & ‘telephonegate’ off the front pages
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/bnp-leader-joins-soldiers-mourners-1818018.html
There should be plenty of reaction to this going by the previous Question Time attendance
353. Nice people don’t whatever the circumstance.
Roger, you called a grieving mother a “shit”.
It’s nice to see that according to you, everyone has to follow your rules of grief otherwise they can’t be a nice person - who the hell do you think you are, you arrogant c**t.
361. Isn’t that like a dog chasing its tail?
Let’s say average income is £60,000 and the 60% AHI is the target. You heavily tax everyone earning more to redistribute it to those on less than £36,000 to make their income at least £36,001.
If I were feeling pedantic I’d say that that distribution would then automatically redefine median income as higher than £36,000 and push some back into poverty - but if I wasn’t you’d have a huge disincentive to work for anyone on a salary <£36k and severally demoralise those working hard for £60k.
I think that is undesirable and would not result in a better society overall.
O/T completely but amazing story in Guardian of a teenager adrift for 3 days on an ice floe in Hudson’s Bay , -15 and he shot a mother polar bear who was (unfortunately for her) sharing the same floe.
Did wonder if anyone will rescue the poor orphaned cubs?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/10/canada-teenager-alive-on-ice
371. Bollocks.
You’re a dickhead.
383 - “I think that is undesirable and would not result in a better society overall.”
A perfectly acceptable viewpoint, I happen to disagree strongly but I hope we can all see that it is perfectly possible to achieve it (whether you agree with the target or not).
348 http://toffeewomble.blogspot.com/2005/08/all-must-have-prizes.html
”
Critics are attacking the Culture Minister, David Lammy, for ‘literary dumbing down’, following the announcement that 250,456 people have won the Booker Prize for Literature, this year.
Hitherto, the prize was restricted to just one novelist, in the British Commonwealth or the Republic of Ireland; officially, the prize goes to the writer responsible for the most ’significant achievement in novel writing in the preceding year’.
378 - Responsibility is less prevalent in everyday life the lower down the income scale you go because more is provided for you and employment generally require a lower level of responsibility.
Frankly, I think this is absolute bollocks because responsibility in your job is one thing, responsibility in your life is something else competely.
Does it occur to you, for example, that people take jobs at the minimum wage because they are responsible for feeding and clothing their families, or because they want to support their studies, or because they want to get a start in employment, or because they do not want to benefits? And so on.
Does it not occur to you that people on the minimum age in jobs with no real responsibility have to make crucial decisions every single day about how they are going to feed themselves and their families, and pay the rent/mortgage and save some money for a rainy day as well? And so on.
Does it not occur to you that all of the above also involves quite a bit of detailed thinking ahead?
380 TIMBOT, I think you’d win the ‘Biggest Parasite Competition’ round these parts.
I wonder what your real views are with regard to the armed forces. I think I can make a good guess.
383 - You and SO are getting to the root of the Blond argument, and we’ll see whether Cameron tackle it, and that is that once inequality of wealth rises beyond a certain point then without recapitalisation of the poor, tackling poverty is a charade.
I like John Majors prescription for fixing our voting system. Go from 650 seats to 500 seats.
So that means, what? Get rid of 5 Lib-Dem and 15 Conservative seats. Then get rid 130 Labour seats?
Sorted!
386. “I hope we can all see that it is perfectly possible to achieve it”
It might be possible to raise all incomes to 60% of average through heavy taxation - although the economic effects would be disastrous.
I think it is incredible to suggest that equates to abolishing child poverty.
O/T, but as a US resident who was on the UK electoral roll 4 years ago, could I still apply for a postal vote and / or a proxy vote in the UK?
380. But I have never denied I was a wastrel and a ne’er do well. I was a total shyster, as I have confessed severally. But even at my lowest I knew I owed a debt to those around me who were not as nihilistic and self-indulgent as me; I was aware I was leeching.
That is why, in the end, I came off the drugs, and volunteered myseld to the tax man, etc etc. I couldn’t bear the guilt and self-hatred.
Now I pay lots of tax to a government I despise, and so be it.
Roger, however, in his pomposity and odiousness, like so many lefties, considers himself morally superior to those petit bourgeois types, the jerks with their shitty mothers, who actually fight for their country and give him a chance to have an entirely pointless career in advertising.
And spare me your stuff about parasitism and fatherhood, mister self-confessed CAP subsidy sponger who spends 12 hours a day on here, seven days a week, when he apparently has young children.
Idiot.
385 - You are a Tory elitist who seeks to blame the poor for being poor because they do not take responsibility, make decisions or plan ahead. I hope your views are just those of an old dinosaur and not representative of those who are about to rule the country.
391 - I like it to, but would rather see it in terms of a radical restructuring of the top tier of politics, with powers shifting downwards and a multi-stream system of entry into national politics.
377 Granted, my argument was based on mean, not median. However, there will always be someone in an economy who earns nothing. For that to be more than 60% of the median, the median will tend to nothing. For everyone to receive 60% of the median, regardless of their willingness/ability to work, requires a transfer of assets from those who earn above (60% of) the median to all those who earn below 60%. As unemployment goes up (through loss of jobs in a recession or increased freeloading as a benefits culture establishes itself over time), so this transfer increases. At some point, those who do genereate wealth leave, or it ceases to be worthwhile to work.
Given today’s unemployed and on-benefits levels, I’d be interested to know how much these transfer payments would need to be to bring everyone up to the 60% level.
367 If even the Soviets were unable to do it, I suspect it would be beyond the ability of any non-totalitarian society.
Ensuring that no-one had an income of less than 60% of the median would require a degree of centralised coercion, and accompanying economic damage, that would be intolerable in a society such as our own. It would also require a deliberate commitment to reduce, perhaps end, economic growth, as economic growth tends to increase disparities of income.
398. “It would also require a deliberate commitment to reduce, perhaps end, economic growth, as economic growth tends to increase disparities of income.”
I believe that’s actually in the Green Party’s manifesto.
FPT.377.”Amazing testimony by John Major in Select Committee on appointment procedures.”
Wibbler, could you elaborate a bit on this for me?
399 - I knew there was a reason I was still a member
388. I don’t think there’s any way I could phrase my argument without you wilfully misinterpreting it SO.
How do you account for the millions on benefits who do not work and see no need to do so?
If you have state housing, cash benefits, no rent costs, no council tax costs then you have precious little responsibility in your life as well.
These are the ones I was referring to.
You are referring to aspirational low-income earners who are an entirely different kettle of fish.
Incidentally it is your party has prevented them from choosing their own school and crippled them with high council and fuel tax and punishing rates of benefit withdrawal if they do try and save for a rainy day.
So if there’s anyone who should be ashamed of how they’ve treated the poorest earners - it’s you.
393 Tim B You might want to check out http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/
I am looking into the same question, but haven’t waded through the site yet.
Ever so slightly off topic, but maybe there are some mountaineers on here who can answer a query.
Does altitude give you “good wood”? I seem to be experiencing an unexpected amount of sudden and unwitting tumescence, along with the headaches, mild nausea, insomnia and palpitations.
Maybe its the highcheekboned Tibetan girls, maybe its the condensed milk they serve with coffee. It’s a touch disconcerting - though obviously better than the opposite affliction.
Is Chris Bonington here to give us an answer? Did they call you Chris Bone-ington as a joke back at ground level? I’d like to know.
395 - I think there are two forms of poverty that we need to look at. Material poverty and poverty of outlook. Oftentimes the two are present in the same circumstance but sometimes they are not. Sometimes one informs the other. So a person who is materially less well off can have a poverty outlook in that personal ambition is limited. However those further up the economic ladder can have the same poverty outlook in that they are comfortably off but have no great outlook to preserve or improve that.
To deal with poverty you have to tackle both halves of the equation by ensuring that people alter their outlook and also by ensuring that material considerations don’t impinge on the formulation of that outlook.
397 And since the gap has widened under Labour - one would think that they’d be a bit more contrite about it
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6901147.stm
402 - Your argument apply equally to those who inherit unearned wealth, yet you want to give them a big tax cut as a reward.
353. What a nasty person you are Roger. I hope you are listening to Ms Janes speaking of her son. She is more of a man than you will ever be.
400 - christina see post 258..
“http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=5135
Link to John Major thing.
by AndrewG November 10th, 2009 at 3:48 pm “
395. Bollocks. You are wilfully misrepresenting me. You know nothing about me or my views. You are just enjoying trying to fit my views to your prejudices.
Sean Fear asked why the welfare state continued to expand in a wealthy country. I was trying to provide an explanation.
I care passionately about raising the living standards of the poorest. I am a member of the Centre for Social Justice for f**ks sake. I do not agree that redistribution and welfare is the way to do it. The existing system means I see huge challenges in breaking the culture of dependency that exists.
F*cking tw*t.
404 SeanT Not a mountaineer but lived at high altitude in Yemen for three years. Was young then, so hard to attribute ‘good wood’ to either youth or altitude. The other symptoms you list are all associated with altitude, though.
404. I don’t f*cking believe it, that post was partly in jest - but there really IS a link between the Himalayas and my revivified manhood. I thought it was coincidence, but no.
http://archives.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/asiapcf/east/11/22/highaltitude.viagra/index.html
410 - If Southam Observer’s MO runs to the usual format, this is where he says it’s not ‘his’ party that is responsible.
He normally does at around this part of the argument.
404. I don’t f*cking believe it, that post was partly in jest - but there really IS a link between the Himalayas and my revivified manhood. I thought it was coincidence, but no.
http://tinyurl.com/yg35tvv
I should be a scientist.
Have your say on Gordon - is it ‘fair’ or a ‘lynching’ ?
The current split on the Guardian is 10/90 so not exactly a surprise!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/poll/2009/nov/10/sun-gordon-brown-jacqui-janes
414 - it began as fair journalism, and Brown has now turned it into a lynching through his ineptness. Whether people feel sorry for him at the end of it all isn’t really the point anymore; he put the rope around his neck and climbed the tree.
407. You are making an assumption about how parents will dispose of their wealth to their children tim.
Besides, it’s none of the State’s business. It’s up to you to choose how to dispose of what you have earned and worked hard for after you die. It’s your money.
Even Socialist Sweden have noted this.
Furthermore, most parents do not die until their children are well into their 30s and 40s - far too late to allow them to lead a life of dependency - and, even then, most do little but their family home to the next generation.
SeanT 413. Hate to think what would happen if a sea-level person takes Viagra in the high Himalayas!
405. You put it far better than I James.
Unfortunately SO wound me up so much all I could see was a red mist.
403 - Thanks - don’t want to miss out on all the fun, do we?
Plato
ate the Guardian saying that if enough of us vote lynching then we can ?
Guys, if any of you are thinking of going on honeymoon soon (I know it’s too late for Mister Eagles) then take my expert advice: make that honeymoon a coach tour of Tibet.
402 and 410 - I think people who rely on the state when they do not have to are lowlife scum who should be severely sanctioned and where appropriate, made to get jobs.
However, you were not talking about these people. You were referring to people in work. You stated:
Responsibility is less prevalent in everyday life the lower down the income scale you go because more is provided for you and employment generally require a lower level of responsibility
Before that you stated:
“I think it’s laziness. Most Westerners have no pressing worries. They have a warm comfortable home, wide choice of food, entertainment and access to pleasurable indulgences.
They have no need to worry about everyday life and so have little to no habit of worrying about anything else - in order words needing to be responsible - particularly if they have a job or lifestyle which requires little or no responsibility; such as unskilled manual or basic bluecollar roles.”
You were clearly talking about people in employment.
I am not distorting your words in any way, I am quoting them diectly.
417 - Thanks. I thought you needed someone in your corner!!
416 - I was referring to unearned income.
The IHT cut does not disriminate you want to give it to all income unearned or not.
Why benefit the lazy?
412 - I have no party. But if you want to accuse me of being a Labour supporter because I am not a Tory then so be it.
403 - by the way, following our 25 inches of rain in 24 hours a couple of months back, we are now due to have 4-8 inches today from Hurricane Ida.
You should be getting it sometime this evening in the DC metro area.
409.LTL, thanks.
Sorry to be O/T but this article from Jeremy clarkson is hilarious if err…. a little brutal to say the least. It has to be viewed through OH’s blog but really well worth the effort
Big Hat tip to to Old Holbourn that managed to grab it before the link was removed.
http://bastardoldholborn.blogspot.com/2009/11/mandelson-censors-jeremy-clarkson.html
419 Be interesting to see whether we get to chose in which constituency we vote!
Casino
You’ve made the mistake we all make from time to time - thinking the likes of SO want to have a debate, rather than nitpick.
My own view, as someone who quietly supports the negative income tax, is that the CP target is a nonsense. It could be met, once, but would immediately unravel. The way to do it is twofold, raise the minimum wage to about 16k a year AND give handouts to ANYONE who earns less than 16k.
Of course the taxbase will not be able to keep up with this, leading to more taxes to support more payments, which leads to more taxes etc…Something similar happened in Sweden.
What is worse, recessions take paid workers and stick them on benefits. Suddenly, just when the treasury has fewer resources, it has drastically increased demands. And you think a 14% budget deficit is bad.
Negative income tax, an idea from the right, but now has more supporters on the left (they call it citizen income) has at it’s heart an acceptance of income inequality. Yet seek to provide all a no-strings flat payment.
A careful reading of IDS’ report shows a move in the Negative Income Tax direction, though I’m not convinced the authors realise it.
OMW! One lucky lady…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1226586/The-sickening-video-shows-drunk-womans-brush-death-falling-underground-tracks–right-path-oncoming-train.html
419 You’re qualified to vote if you’ve registered to vote during the past 15 years. I may have disqualified myself. 15 years ago, I was running around Iraq, not thinking about voting. Since then, with Labour ensconced and the Tories so determined to stay unelectable until now, I saw no point in registering. Damn!
421. You *are* quoting my words - and, yes, I could have chosen them better - but you are then wilfully misinterpreting them and then ascribing views to me that I don’t share.
If you don’t want me to get angry at you then don’t ever question my motives again.
I do think Westerners are generally lazy (And, ok, I include myself and the wealthy in that - I drive everywhere, buy takeaways, get deliveries and work as little as possible) and we’ve got sloppy, demanding and unrealistic about how to share and manage risk.
I was trying to explain that the less experience you have of responsibility in your life, the less likely it is you will desire more responsibility than you already have. This fuels demands for an increase in the scope for a welfare state.
It really isn’t that hard a concept to grasp SO.
434, I wonder if she’ll get a mention in the Darwin Awards.
431 - “My daughter is working herself half to death to get good grades at GSCE and can’t see the point because she won’t be going to university, because she doesn’t have a beak or flippers or a qualification in washing windscreens at the lights. She wonders, often, why we don’t live in America.”
Clarkson’s daughter isn’t very bright, is she? I blame the parents.
429 Saw the radar last night. Looks nasty down your way. They were promising us that a pressure high in the Carolinas will keep it from reaching us. Still, we could do with some rain, but that seems a little excessive.
431 Old Holborn The Attention Seeker is conspiracy theorising.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/jeremy_clarkson/article6907747.ece
It’s on the masthead of the Times right now.
178 comments and 295 recommendations.
411 TimT - Sana’a? That’s what - about 6,500 feet? You noticed it if you had to leg it to avoid the bullets bouncing off the top of the Taj Sheba Hotel, that’s for sure…
Kaukaban was probably somewhat higher - the Fortress in the Sky. Now that is a real Tom Knox location….
Leaving aside party politics, it is a big problem that there are so many households that are uninterested in working. This problem predates this government by many years, so it is not their doing - nor do they derive much electoral advantage from it, as workless household have a very low level of turnout, and are concentrated in safe Labour seats in any event.
IMO, when the welfare state was being brought into existence in the first half of the Twentieth century, the expectation was that people would only use it temporarily at times of need, or as a form of insurance, for which they had already paid contributions. It was not expected to become a way of life for people who had no intention of contributing.
426/433. Thanks guys.
427. No it doesn’t tim. It is not all unearned income (that would include shares, dividends, gifts, gambling proceeds, lottery wins and pennies you pick up from the ground) it is cutting the tax on your estate - which you already own and have spent your whole life working for - when you die and which the government has no right to commandeer.
You are in a tiny minority on this and most other erstwhile left-wing countries have already abolished it.
You are stuck in the past tim.
428. You clearly describe yourself as such. I also suggest you vote for them next year if that’s how you really characterise my party and theirs.
You’d fit right in.
424 – “But if you want to accuse me of being a Labour supporter because I am not a Tory then so be it”
S.O, Putting words into people’s mouths is your little game, no reasonable fellow could possibly come to that conclusion from my comment. It’s your MO . . .and we’ve seen it all before.
440, there was an ARRSE thread stating the article had been taken down (I posted a link earlier). Maybe they put it back up?
415. “410 - If Southam Observer’s MO runs to the usual format, this is where he says it’s not ‘his’ party that is responsible.”
428. “412 - I have no party. But if you want to accuse me of being a Labour supporter because I am not a Tory then so be it.”
CHAIRMAN ROFLMAO!!
There is a quote in the comment of Holborn link that is very fitting for SeanT’s current predicament,
“Still, as Eric Idle sang: I like Chinese, they only come up to your knees, they’re always friendly and they’re ready to please!”
433 - I am all up for a debate. On here, though, debate is not debate, it is let’s all agree that the Tories are great and anyone who doesn’t is a bot or a Labour supporter. The Oxford Union it isn’t.
Casino very clearly accused lower income workers of not taking responsibility. I have challenged that and he has called me a f*cking tw*t. I am not sure that is trying to have a debate, but maybe it is in Tory circles.
unless I wasn’t clear ealier - any chance of a market for Exeter shadsy ?
445 I assume it was some webnumpty switching links about rather than a Murdoch grand master plan
OH loves those [in case you wonder why I am so hmph about him, he cut and pasted several of my posts with a tiny hat-tip.]
438. The trouble for lefties is that Clarkson is funny. He just has that natural comic timing, in writing and TV (he’s actually a very good journalist; churning out amusing copy week after week is very very hard, which is why successful columnists are mightily rewarded).
e.g. Deconstruct that paragraph you chose. It has a natural ascending rhythm, going from a one syllable example to a two syllable example to a multi syllable example - beaks, flippers, washing windscreens blah blah blah.
This makes it fluid and readable. Yet so many people are unable to do this. They do not have the ear: the “voice”, the talent.
Also, his choice of examples is funny by juxtaposition: beak, flippers, washing windscreens at the lights. It is mildly insulting to penguins and perhaps some humans, but it stays on the right side of offensive, just.
He is just funny and gifted and good at what he does - taking the p1ss out of political correctness, which is why he is so enormously popular - which is why in turn he is hated by the left.
Some people have compared Mrs Janes/Gordon Brown with Mrs Gould/Mrs Thatcher. The big mistake which Mrs Thatcher made was to start her answer with an inaccuracy “It was not sailing away from the Falklands” when her correct answer should have been to point out that it was still a danger despite sailing away.
Clarkson article is up on Times website,
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/jeremy_clarkson/article6907747.ece
SeanT just uses this great forum as a PR adjunct…to sell his dodgy books.
Now does anyone want to take my offer of 4.0 Labour at Brighton Pavilion ?
374 - As can be seen from the table, I am more bullish about Labour’s chances in Holborn & St Pancras than Peter the Punter. Like Peter, I can’t see the Tories coming from third. However, I am equally bearish about the Lib Dems’ chances of coming from second. If the Lib Dems had no other target seats in the area, I might revise this, but this seat has Islington South & Finsbury and Hampstead & Kilburn as neighbours, both of which look like better Lib Dem prospects. Brent Central is also close by, which seems to be much more of a Lib Dem target in practice than Holborn & St Pancras. Lib Dem efforts are presumably going to be concentrated much more closely in those constituencies, which should mean that Labour is safe here.
448 I doubt that really. I’m a 3x Labour voter and rarely see anything in your posts that supports them - what I do notice is a lot of Tory bashing.
Happy to be advised otherwise as ever.
441 Marquee Mark Officially, I think Sana’a is listed around 7100′. We called ourselves HHHH (Highest Hash House Harriers) coz once a year our run went over 12,000′. I think Tibet or Nepal now has that title.
Was there 82-85. Only one bullet hole in the LandRover, but plenty of fun. Doubt its the same now they have roads.
Right, off home now.
448. SO - I’ve just seen your post.
Do you know what? I give up.
If it really matters that much to you that you claim some little “victory” on this then I’ll let you do so. WELL DONE - YOU WIN.
*APPLAUSE*
I’ve tried explaining and requalifying my views for you in a way which your feeble little mind might begin to understand but, instead, you have continued to misrepresent them and ascribe to me views I do not share.
Fine - that is your pejorative. You have the luxury of choosing to do and continuing to do that if you wish.
Meanwhile I shall continue to think you are rather a pathetic little man. And, dare I say it, a bit of a tw*t as well.
re 354 Roger as someone posted up thread, this government has done more than any other to spy on us and invade our privacy than any other. I am amused that Brown has been caught out in this way. He deserves it. Now can we think of similar ways to entrap other odious cabinet ministers, starting with the authoritarian Straw.
436 - Not now that you explain it properly it isn’t, no. And I tend to agree with your assessment up to a point. Where we will have to disagree is in believing that lower income workers are less inclined towards responsibility. I just do not see how that can be true. A policy that focuses on people with lower incomes because they do not take responsibility is bound to fail because in my view it is based on a fallacy.
I think that what we need to look at is the sense of entitlement that pervades people in all sectors of society, not just those at the bottom. Clarkson feels he is entitled just as much as the scumbag pretending to be ill in order to get incapacity benefits. He thinks he is entitled to put others at risk by driving down the motorway at 100 mph while talking on the phone, or to pay his daughter’s way into university, or to sneer at anyone who does not think in the same way as he does. For me, that is just a degenerative and uncohesive as anything people at the bottom of the tree do. If we are going to create communities, we all need to be a part of them. It is not just about those on low incomes.
451 Although he was usually awfully right-on, Ben Elton’s TV shows about bins/motorways etc were inspired stuff.
OT Just been watching the reptriation of the soldiers. The people of Wootton Bassett are quite remarkable. Rather in the way that Malta was awarded the GC I really feel that they should be honoured. They represent the nation in a way that our politicians have failed to do and by doing so quietly show up the inadequacies of others. I don’t know what the decoration would be but it feels to me like something that should be done.
452 The strange thing is why anyone would get worked up about sinking the Belgano in the first place. It was a danger to our fleet, and it would have been reckless not to sink it.
459. “He thinks he is entitled to put others at risk by driving down the motorway at 100 mph while talking on the phone, or to pay his daughter’s way into university, or to sneer at anyone who does not think in the same way as he does.”
Um, pretty much everyone has to pay their way into university these days.
450, not like the big hat tip you gave me for the Brian Blessed HIGNFY then?
441. Yeah, Sanaa, 6000 feet? Pah! A mere hillock. Today I was well over 12000 feet, and possibly nearer 14000. I’m not sure how high precisely cause I kept closing my eyes as the bus got higher.
The cute Chinese girl on my left (but maybe she wasn’t that cute, maybe it was just the Good Wood Effect of High Altitude, as I now realise) - she kept taking out these aerosol cans of oxygen with disposable plastic masks.
Indeed everyone had them except me. I just had Sergeant Stiffy marching around the Parade Ground of my Pants.
459, doesn’t Clarkson make his money though gainful employment?
That’s the exact opposite of being a benefits cheat.
461 - There was a suggestion a while ago that it should become the third town with the prefix “Royal” to join Royal Leamington Spa and Royal Tunbridge Wells. I think that that could be appropriate.
451 - Clarkson is a multi-millionaire who constantly moans about how crap everything is. Some may find this amusing, others find it slightly tedious. Still, each to their own.
ANY POLLS TONIGHT - ICM must be due soon, I am very very interested in that one (gold standard of polls)
461 I welled up when watching it. I didn’t use to be a blubber [except over Lassie movies] and now anything like this totally gets me.
It was very moving stuff - the respect was immense. Those who pee on or deface war memorials deserve something SeanT could think of.
468, having a healthy bank balance doesn’t disqualify someone from holding an opinion. I suspect leftists would wet their pants in indignation if someone claimed having too little money did so.
467, I thought the townfolk didn’t want it?
468
What does the amount of money in your account have to do with your opinion on stuff?
The belief that only certain people are entitled to opinions is incredibly elitist.
One of the good things about the internet, is that we have to take each others opinions at face value, as those of posting behind handles know little about each other.
462 - Agreed, there was no need for Thatcher to lie and launch the conspiracy theories.
466 - It is. But that does not mean he is entitled to buy his daughter a place in a top university or to hurtle down the motorway while talking on his mobile.
471 You’re right - they didn’t. I’d like it if they did though.
“The strange thing is why anyone would get worked up about sinking the Belgano in the first place. It was a danger to our fleet, and it would have been reckless not to sink it.”
A number of people on the left, such as Tam Dayell, seemed to think that it was unacceptable for the UK to commit any military act.
The usual self-loathing.
459. Yeah, whatever, but confronted with the question, who makes your life ever so slightly more amusing and therefore bearable, and whose departure would make the world a slightly greyer place, Jeremy Clarkson or…. Southam Observer?… I think we all know what the answer would be.
Worthy boring pompous narcissistic lefties are ten a f*cking penny, unfortunately. People who make you laugh and thereby make existence slightly brighter are rare and precious.
When I think about all the friends I’ve had who I no longer see, for whatever reason (death, drugs, distance) it’s the ones who made me laugh who I miss the most.
I like politicians but I hate people. I love to watch BBC PARLIAMENT debates in the quiet moments (not PMQs).
These are men and women who essentially are trying to deprive the other side of a living, but the way they conduct themselves, is in the main, civilised and respectful.
Speaker Bercow is bumptious and his career will end in tears, but for now he is a breath of fresh air and it would be a travesty if his career ended at the hands of UKIP.
471 and 472 - where did I say he was not entiled to an opinion? I merely stated that some of us find a multi-millionaire moaning about how crap everything is all the time pretty tedious. Clearly other people do not. It’s all part of the great circle of life.
477 - I am sure they are all up there waiting for you in the great saloon bar in the sky SeanT.
479 - Like Ben Elton?
After 25 years of moaning about Britain, comedian Ben Elton is off to Australia
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1226529/After-25-years-moaning-Britain-comedian-Ben-Elton-Australia.html?ITO=1490#ixzz0WTuYeSs8
478 “trying to deprive the other side of a living”
Well, that’s if you see the House Of Commons as a zero-sum-game, URW. Most recent evidence suggests that the MPs have been treating it as a non-zero-sum game and have been cooperating all the way to the bank…
479
Are you saying that he could write exactly the same article, in exactly the same way, but that you wouldn’t find it tedious if he had no money?
SO
The accusation that someone has *bought* a university place for someone else is a serious one and really needs backing up or clarifying.
O/T - From the Speccie:
EU Government deficit estimates as % share of GDP 2010
UK - 12.9
Ireland - 12.5
Latvia - 12.3
Greece - 12.2
Spain - 10.1
Lithuania - 9.2
France - 8.2
Portugal - 8
Poland - 7.5
EU Average - 6.9
Slovenia - 7
Romania - 6.8
Netherlands - 6.1
Slovakia - 6
Belgium - 5.8
Czech - 5.5
Austria - 5.5
Italy - 5.3
Germany - 5
Denmark - 4.8
Finland - 4.5
Estonia - 3.2
Best placed indeed.
479
well at least Ben Elton is cleatring off to Australia so that’s one less moaning millionaire. Pity he couldn’t take Cherie with him.
479 “I merely stated that some of us find a multi-millionaire moaning about how crap everything is all the time pretty tedious. ”
Ben Elton?
http://www.globalvisas.com/news/comedian_ben_elton_announces_move_to_australia1796.html
481/485 SNAP!
Good article from Staines,
http://order-order.com/2009/11/10/labour-looks-in-the-mirror-and-knows-it-has-lost/
438. Beak? Flippers? What the fuff is he talking about? Is it some sort of teenage slang?
487
good news always brigthens the day up !
483 - I don’t think he is very funny. Full stop. Others do. There you go.
480. Actually I *resile* slightly from that post, Southam. I am being careless cause I am feeling drunk on altitude, black necked cranes and decent Chinese red wine.
My comment came across as if I see YOU as the exemplar of pompous boring lefties on pb. I certainly do not. You are nearly always reasonable and smart, despite being deluded and socialist, ahem, and you are no less witty than the next man.
Apologies. There are plenty of people on pb who do fit the mould, but I am in too nice a mood to cite them. Pax.
483 Aaron. Yes I was aware that my thesis was slightly dodgy.But at the end of the day some of them are going to be evicted.
A lot of them !
When you watch a quiet debate you start to have respect for politicians.The ones you don’t have respect for stand out like sore thumbs.
Two cliches in one post. Must try harder.
486 - Right on bollocks. Can’t stand him.
488 Yup - whining is very unattractive.
492 - Pax to you too!
484 - I linked to the article that comes from earlier, it is a damning indictment of the economic policy of Brown and Labour.
492 - “There are plenty of people on pb who do fit the mould, but I am in too nice a mood to cite them.”
Boo! It always does my ego good to get a mention from you
462. I was only 13 at the time of the Falklands war and it was only many years later that I understood the point that the Belgrano was still dangerous, regardless of its direction. I had assumed that the fact that it was sailing away meant that it would take ages to turn round and therefore wasn’t a danger to the ships behind it. What I did not realise until later was that it could turn round very quickly, even though it was a big ship.
484. What an incredibly depressing table. Britain, more overdrawn than Latvia.
Thanks, Gordon.
THIS is why we should hate the prime minister, because he is an incompetent and mendacious buffoon, who has ruined the country - not because he doesn’t give good phone.
Re Elton, SeanT and Jeremy Clarkson.
Apparently they all used to be funny.
And what is it with Australia, dull country.Sunny, but dull.
500 - I believe the Isle of Man is even further up the creek due to a renegotiation of a VAT agreement but I understand if that is small comfort.
488 Interesting comment from that article -
‘FD says:
November 10, 2009 at 6:10 pm
Charlie Whelan has organised the this weeks mass trolling of websites like the Daily Mail. (and today’s onslaught on The Sun) He has a team of full time staff posting pro-Brown messages constantly under different aliases.
Eventually someone at the Mail (or The Sun) will investigate and then it will all blow up in Brown’s face.’
484 - Wonder if this economic data will make an appearance at PMQ’s tomorrow?
On writers - the exchange about Clarkson and Ben Elton got me wondering on whether there is any journalist or writer out there who actually makes me laugh out loud along with them. I was disturbed to find that there is not. Or at least not one that springs readily to mind. I am such a square.
501 - Australians are what you get when the British try very hard to be Americans.
New thread btw
499 Mr Loony. I was 17 and a very very good friend of mine in the Navy [18] was called up.
I vividly remember being in our local in Newcastle, and not quite grasping that my best mate was being sent to war - it seemed so alien and scary.
He did his service as a Navy diver and bomb-disposal commander - total respect to him in the most dangerous occupations. He was forced to retire at 40 and became lost as a civvie. What a total waste of experience and will.
493 - Yes, the new House Of Commons will be almost 40% freshmen.
I do have respect for a lot of politicians and wouldn’t wish to judge them all solely through the smoked-glass-prism of expensesgate; the vast majority of people will always respond to incentives and peer pressure, and I wouldn’t expect MPs as a rule to be much “better” than the average.
That said, I’m no longer convinced as to the usefulness of MPs. I wanted to be one myself in my younger days but can’t see the attraction of the job as it is. Ministerial office would be more interesting, but even then you sense that most ministers never get to make (or even influence) the policy for which they are nominally responsible. Accountability without power.
Both major parties seem to essentially be run by about 4-6 people, only half of whom are MPs. It’s hardly good odds for getting into politics, is it?
Brighton Pavillion, your throwing money away on the Greens. Many on the doorstep are not happy with the Green councillors, not because they are bad but because they liked the old Labour ones so much, these people will swing back. Also more Green voters will vote Labour in the general election because of the increased threat of the Tories. Both of the other big parties in the area are trying to subtly steal the Green vote, and both will have a larger polling day machine. The greens will be significant but not the winners.
Also what are the bets on Basildon, a punt on Labour bucking the national trend isnt a bad one. Smith has been more high profile than most in Basildon + East Thurrock, Angela Smith is popular locally and has a large non-labour safe vote share. The Tories campaign force has apparently(I have only seen them once) been small and poorly organised.