Populus has the Tories below 40%
November 9th, 2009
CON 39%(-1)
LAB 29%(-1)
LD 18%(nc)
UKIP 4.3% (+2)
BNP 2% (nc)
GRN ????
SNP/PC ????
UKIP gets a two point boost
Although the figures are different the trends in tonight Populus poll for the Times are broadly similar to that which we saw in the last poll - the Angus Reid one for PB. The Tories down a bit and there’s an increase in the overall share for others with UKIP moving up.
The gap between the Tories and Labour remains the same at ten points making this the best poll for Labour since the last survey from Populus a month ago.
The Populus past vote weightings are a touch less favourable to the Tories than the other firms that use this mechanism for ensuring a politically balanced sample.
It should be noted that a reason why Populus, like ICM, can sometimes return a smaller share for “others” could be methodological. This is down, I believe, to their practice of allocating a proportion of those who say they will vote but won’t say who for in accordance with what respondents said they did last time. As the data shows, for the Populus October survey the “others” total was was two point bigger when unadjusted and the Labour total two points lower.
It will be interesting to see the full data from the latest November poll.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Hung Parliament = 0.05% swing over the next 6 months.
tories = toast
Second
Brown failing to bow at the Cenotaph
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LgRpoObH8g
An excellent poll for the Tories after the worst media coverage Cameron has received since becoming leader (Robinson: ‘a time bomb beneath the Tories that hasn’t exploded… yet!’; Snow: ‘U-turn’, Tories European policy in ‘disarray’ and so on.)
FPT 113:
Yes, I largely agree Marcus. Although I mentioned on a previous thread that I do not blame Brown for the debacle with the letter of condolence, the antics of Mandelson have been despicable. To belittle the genuine distress of a grieving mother as part of his petulant campaign against Murdoch and The Sun reveals a vanity and self-regard verging on the psychotic. Of course, many of us impartial observers have been saying this about the chap for years, but I just hope that the Labour supporters who swooned and crowed at his reappointment as some sort of triumphant return of their great saviour will now reflect on the sort of politician they have saddled themselves with. I, for one, can summon up little sympathy.
Basically “no change” from one of the comedy pollsters.
Not great from a Tory perspective, at least, by recent standards, though it’d be good enough for a majority. Probably about as low as they’ll go though. Tories will hit 45 again by the New Year.
Frankly, given all the whinging that goes on about the Herd here, I’ve been toying with creating a new blog to divert some of the partisan Tory wanking away from PBC.
We could use tim’s name and call it “The Herdsmen of the Apocalypse”.
1.
Excuse me! I’m very partial to Toast!
7. You mean a blog that you can actual post on from work?
Re prev thread - who was it who predicted Labour would respond by smearing the messenger?
Good call.
The leper doesn’t change its spots.
*Actually
@8: Gabble = Marmite
You either hate him or you loathe him.
Hague on TV, Voters flee.
Cameron on 39% is poor stuff
Like it or not its the Tories who will be more disappointed by this poll.
Particularly those on here who’ve been telling us that the Q3 GDP figure closes the deal.
@9:
The thought hadn’t even begun to cross my mind.
91 on previous £2979 traded @ 59/1 on Betfair for Brum to win!
10 - Wonder if the Bunker are currently running around a bit like the latest episode of The Thick of It?
@13:
I presume you think the “others” share is just as bollocks as the PB-ARS poll?
13 - It did seal it, in the same manner that Black Wednesday sealed John Major’s fate. After Black Wednesday Major still pulled out a lead of 2 points in an ICM in January 93.
15 - I hope they have traded! Liverpool got pen (no contact).
Ngog does a blatant dive for a penalty Gerrard equalizes!
13. Not sure about your Hague thesis, tim. If the Tories have lost a bit to UKIP, it’s not going to be to do with him, is it?
Another silly Timbot theory, like his women had given up on Tories due to their new pensions policy. That one lasted one or was it two polls, until a poll showed the opposite.
There is a feeling that Cameron has betrayd Britain over Lisbon.
Conservatives are angry. My reaction was f*c* cameron.
However, one battle at a time. Labour then Cameron and the Eurotraytors.
21 - Hague on the media can only damage the Tories, their core vote is motivated anyway and he repels many target voters in the centre.
17 - Others will be 11-12%.
@23:
Shush, you. There’s a special pen marked “do not feed” at ConHome for your ilk.
24 where is your polling evidence for this assertion?
24. But I repeat, it’s not target voters in the centre that are drifting off to UKIP.
24 - 11-12% max
@24:
It’s interesting that the division between the good pollsters and the slightly jokey ones seems to be how they handle the others.
Dear PB-ARS poll: there’s still time to mend your ways.
26 - Every General Election since the Second World War.
Bang goes PP’s 11%-15% band re Labour’s best November polling position, so 6%-10% looks like being the winner, whoever spotted that one thoroughly deserve their winnings.
13: ‘Hague on TV, Voters flee.’
That’s odd because about a year ago Hague was the most admired politician in Britain (St Vince took the silver):
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2008/aug/14/themostadmiredpoliticianin
I wonder what has happened in that short time to turn him into the supreme political turn off he now is.
27 - They don’t mattter, they’ll come back anyway.
Hague on telly every day until the election would help Labour and particualrly the Lib Dems.
30 tim,as you well know, I meant your assertion about Willianm Hague. What evidence do you have?
Not a bad poll - it’s both the best for Labour for a while and the worst for the Tories among the mainstream pollsters. More important, it suggests the dip in Tory support after the Europe stuff, though small, wasn’t just temporary. Martin Coxall is mistaken to call it a comedy pollster - it’s got virtually identical methodology to ICM, which most people respect. (As Anthony Wells notes, this probably means the real lead is somewhere in between - say 41-28.)
BTW, my understanding is that David Miliband definitely does not want the EU job - he’s not being coy, he actually doesn’t want to do it.
24 It is difficult to reconcile your view with the twin facts that (1) Hague is one of the top three most high profile Tory MPs and (2) the Tories have regularly attained leads of 10-20 points over Labour.
Of course, that is not to say that (1) has caused (2).
25 Dont know what you mean.
Still, I shall keep quiet. Nobody cares about a random post from someone wo doesnt exist.
I shant vote UKIP. Bunch of rosacea nuts. A vote for ukip is a vote for Labour.
Cameron is on notice. In public we are all good friends - but if betraiys Britain, he is outnumbered by Conservatives.
31 It was only a 4/6 shot but it looks like it has come in, PfP.
Wonder if Paddy will pay out now, or wait to see if Labour close to wihin 5 points?
32 - As the article points out, Hague was doing little at the time bar being part time and telling jokes.
Whether people want him in charge of anything is less likely.
But lets not allow little WIllie to distract from the main conclusion that this is poor stuff for Cameron.
Gosh, tim and Gabble out in force tonight. Must be worried by all the bad press Brown has got today.
This could’ve been a non-story if dealt with in a sensible manner but Brown managed to turn it into a disaster as usual. He thought the issue was over his handwriting - it was not, it was his lack of thought that was.
35 Nick Palmer is spinning.
It is hard to see how (-1) is best for Labour.
37 - I can guarantee that Martin Coxall exists.
Front pages so far
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/tuesday_10th_november_2009.html
39 - No the main conclusion is that you are talking out the back of your head.
O/T - Portillos programm on BBC4 on the Spanish Civil War is very good.
3. What strikes me about that video is that Brown seems to be in worse shape than the Queen, who has a good 25 or so years on him.
@42:
I thank you for your reassurance. Mr Wasabi nearly provoked a full-scale existential crisis here.
Whew. That was a close one.
35. I agree NPMP I think this is a disappointing poll for the Conservatives. I think they should be in the mid 40s. I was shocked this weekend to hear my father, a lifelong Labour supporter, say ‘if ever a man deserved to be defeated at a GE it’s Gordon Brown’. This is after years of defending him in many heated rows with me. For him Brown’s speech on Afghanistan was the final straw. He was appalled by it. Yet the polls are not showing the movement to the Conservatives I would have hoped for. Personally I don’t get it.
As for David Miliband, I don’t get that either. Why doesn’t he want the Europe job? The write-up I read earlier said a) it was because he had 3 small children and doesn’t want to be travelling too much b) it was because he wants to lead the Labour party. A tad contradictory - no?
Yougov also are currently showing Others at a combined 15-16% .
A Yougov poll for Skynews re Afghanistan seems to have missed discussion . The data tables are on the Yougov website . There was a GE polling question and although headline figures were not given , comparison woth the similar poll for Channel 4 gives Con 40 Lab 26 LibDem 19 Others 15 . Fieldwork was Nov 5th/6th a day later than the Channel 4 poll .
@48:
You would have thought that a man who doesn’t want to travel too much would turn down Secretary of State for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.
Cameron won’t want many polls below 40 but a ten point lead is a ten point lead and is more than most Conservatives could have dreamed of in 2005, so I suspect Cameron will be phlegmatic.
51 - Agree that won’t want too many polls below 40 but the odd one now and then is quite useful for maintaining discipline and focus. Conservatives will be above 40 in the actual General election share.
Strange strategy, the Tories are keeping the story going about their Euro group
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1226470/David-Miliband-condemned-anti-Semitic-claim.html
re 29. The total for others in the PB poll was 17.3% - which is not far off the rest of the pack.
39: ‘As the article points out, Hague was doing little at the time bar being part time and telling jokes.’
So when did this perceptual change of Hague as affable joker to Hague as political leper come about? When he embraced the Dark Side that is Kaminski I take it.
MPs have backed plans to allow some deaths to be investigated by a closed inquiry rather than an inquest jury, despite fears about “secret justice”.
MPs voted to overturn amendments made in the Lords to allow intercept evidence to be used in inquests.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8351559.stm
50. My point is if Miliband wants to spend so much time with his family why does he want to lead a political party. That strikes me as contradictory. And the excessive travelling hasn’t stopped him wanting to do his current job. So using ‘too much travel’ as a reason not to do the Europe job sounds less than convincing to me.
Miliband apparently rules himself out of the High Representative post.
According to R5Live saying he believes his future is in British Politics. Obama @ Berlin not Brown and GB apology.
Not blowing our super secret cunning plan or anything but have you noticed any connection between runaway Tory leads and then a Tory ‘bad news’ story being put out? - I have.
If the lead gets in the high teens the leadership seem happy to use those occasions, those peaks, as a good moment to seep a bad Tory story into the media.
A co-incidence ? I don’t think so.
We have some of the best media brains anywhere on planet earth strategising for Mr C at the moment (an Mr C isn’t a beginner at media strategy himself as Mr Green and Carlton TV shareholders know to their profit).
There are scores of reasons why Dave does not want huge poll leads including complacency amongst the field troops leading to reduced effort in the ground war, highlighting the prospect of a LD/LAB coalition hurting LD in LD/Tory marginals, keeping rogue elements in his own party quiet, and avoiding sending Mr Brown to the retirement home for EX MP’s a bit too early.
But above all, he knows that a ‘foregone conclusion’ narrative will tempt the media into mischief, best keep the story live with a bit of ‘will they, won’t they’ interest instead of allowing the opposition to become entrenched as the ‘government in waiting’ and thereby exposed to the flak that should be reserved for the real Government.
So what I think they are very cleverly doing is -when the moment allows- putting out some of the bad news now rather than waiting until after polling day. No, we won’t be cutting top rate taxes; yes, the pension age will go up; No, we won’t have a referendum, yes we will impose all women shortlists if we have to.
44% overall or 17% lead seems to be the trigger.
Interestingly 38% or 10% lead seems to be the alternative trigger for launching good news Tory Stories.
Or perhaps I am crediting the media team with too much?
53 tim
Britain is overwhelmingly Eurosceptic.
Only Guardianistas care about what group the Tories sit in.
Reminding the country that the Tories are Eurosceptic is a good strategy.
10 The leper doesn’t change its spots.
Brilliant - you do realise “the leopard doesn’t change its spots” is the more conventional expression do you?
58 - that’s if it ever was on offer. I don’t really get this, if Blair can’t be EU President then we must have the High Representative. Why ? There are 27 countries, why does the UK media peddle this ‘we get one job or another’. It’s all smoke and mirrors. Wouldn’t suprise me if neither of them really had a real chance.
I’m starting to wonder if there has been an impact on Cameron over euroreferendumgate (sorry)
It’s not the detail of his Europe policy - it’s literally the fact he’s now offering no referendum whatsoever. It makes him seem The Same As All The Others.
I’m starting to think the “risk” of a referendum would have been worth it. Offer one to get a mandate on renegotiating powers.
(1) Do you approve of the recently ratified Lisbon Treaty? (yes/no)
(2) Do you approve of the UK Governments plans to repatriate powers in the areas of Social and Employment Policy and Opt-Out from the Charter of Fundamental Rights? (yes/no)
We’re all grown-ups. I think people would have been delighted to finally get their say and would have shown their appreciation by voting on the issue at hand and not Camerons Budget Cuts.
But.. he decided against it.
Mistake.
60 - Perhaps Klaus ratified Lisbon to suit your theory Marcus.
61 - Hague reminds people of the Tory party they loved to hate.
63. If he ever wanted it, which as I posted a weekl or so ago, he apparently didnt.
Obama wasn’t in Berlin today right? Just did a video address. Is it just me, or does that seem like a very poor effort?
Gordon Brown wants to enshrine NHS targets in law.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article6910262.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797084
Why doesn’t he just go the whole hog and outlaw any manifesto other than Labour’s.
65 Tim Where is your evidence for this assertion about William Hague?
55 - that is certainly the unanimous view of the populace, who without exception view Hague’s endorsement of arch-Nazi, former Latvian SS offer Natasha Kaplinski for the US presidency to be an act of betrayal unparalleled in the modern era.
Hang on, not sure I got that quite right. Tim?
60. Interesting theory Marcus. I have noticed a marked upswing of ‘it’s in the bag’ for the Tories stories from Labour supporters in the last few days. Jackie Ashley was the most obvious, but there were also several BBC stories conveying the same message.
67 - Yes but Obama wouldn’t have been the centre of attention.
67 it does, but dont forget how inward looking the Americans are sometimes. events in the rest of the world are often dismissed as relatively unimportant. say, its only an anniversary…
Seems the Muslim Massacre Major is suspected of links to terrorists.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1226453/Calls-investigate-Fort-Hood-shootings-terrorism-attack-gunman-wakes-coma.html
People will question why the worst is thought of christians while muslims are exempt. Those people died because it was politically incorrect to question his loyalties. There will be a backlash.
Obama’s ratings will fall further.
Here, BNP’s ratings will rise.
Of course, the story will be surpressed but in the long term, it will make things worse. It will facilitate extremism and delay correction.
69 - MTF - tim doesn’t use evidence it tends to undermine the conceptual integrity of his theme.
73 - Yes, but a) this isn’t just another anniversary and b) Obama did that big speech in Germany on his Europe tour pre-election. The German people came out in force for him then, least he could do is come over for them.
Mp’s back secret inquests..
“MPs have backed plans to allow some deaths to be investigated by a closed inquiry rather than an inquest jury, despite fears about “secret justice”.
MPs voted to overturn amendments made in the Lords to allow intercept evidence to be used in inquests. ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8351559.stm
64. Cameron got relentless bad, ridiculing (and misleading) press over the referendum. The so called reneging on a “cast iron” guarantee fed into the trust narrative and I think that’s all that many people got from the story.
76 - Indeed but he wouldn’t be the centre of attention.
44 I think he’s talking out of another part of his political anatomy.
65 So, when Hague appears, he encourages people to vote UKIP. There is no comfort for Labour in this poll.
Labour have dropped significantly on the Betfair line market. They are fast approaching URW’s suggested outcome:
Betfair - Party Seats Line
(URW’s suggested GE outcome in brackets
Con 360-366.5 (362)
Lab 198-205 (194)
LD 51.5-52 (54)
SNP 13-14 (14)
PC 4.5-5.5 (5)
69 tim doesn’t do evidence.
This election is gonna be so exciting. What Labour need to do is to ensure they hit that 30 mark and keep it as close to it as possible. They need to keep the Tories at 40 or under. If they can do this then they will sail towards a hung parliament… just!
The Tories don’t really need to do much other than make sure they can convince floating voters.
I really think its down to the Liberal Democrats and UKIP as to who will form the next government. If they can’t increase their votes (or at least hold on to their votes from last time) then we’re looking at a Tory landslide. If they can grab a few votes from them then we may be looking at a hung parliament.
The Times has a report that Miliband re-organised his diary at a late moment so he could fly to Berlin. Suggests he might not be that against taking the post of High Poo Bah.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6910176.ece
Betfair’s Buckingham market looks a bit neglected! Has no-one spotted it cos it is not filed under “SE”?
83 - Re final paragraph, it is why I believe Lib Dem will jump on the anti-war bandwagon again.
84 Ted
The BBC are fairly definitive saying that Miliband has rejected the EU post.
Betfair - Brighton Pavillion
Conservative 2.2
Green Party 2.3
Labour 3.6
Liberal Democrats 50
Any Other 50
69 - Hague and IDS are according to all polling the two most unpopular leaders the Conservative Party has ever had.
If I had to speculate IDS work has improved his image, Hagues non work while unlikely to have taken him downwards, is unlikely to have lifted him too far amongst voters the Conservatives need to win.
Hague and Grayling are the Tories two worst liabilities at the moment.
Just in case Tim feels inclined to revisit ’shmuttergate’ he’ll be disappointed to learn that today’s ES (who’ve been running the story with amazing diligence) explained “why Sam’s in the clear over that M&S dress”.
Betfair - Watford
Conservative 1.8
Liberal Democrats 2
Labour 7.4
Any Other 14.5
78. Using the words ‘cast iron’ was also a mistake. You could understand if people got
confused.
Cameron did not play this as well as he could have.
Nick Robinson says the mother of the soldier has told the sun what Brown said to her on the phone, and that he did NOT apologise during the 13 minute converation.
‘Lettergate’ continues to gather a head of steam all due to Brown and his advisors.
89 - Wishing things do not make them so.
89. But that was then and this is now Tim. They are now two of the most popular and respected figures both within the party and nationally.
miliband turns down EU job
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8351635.stm
will he now replace gordon?
89 Thats not evidence tim, Its nothing at all, dressed up as an opinion.
93 - WTF, if that is true, he really is f##kin insane!
The Cadbury Kraft bid could be yet more bad news for Brown.
Does he defend UK jobs in Midlands marginals or will Mandelson overrule him ?
92 - No but you can’t expect things to run smoothly all the time and at the time he made the comments that were in many respects unfairly used against him he had other considerations to be toying with.
Betfair - Hampstead & Kilburn
Liberal Democrats 2
Conservative 2.36
Labour 3.6
Any Other 4.3
83 If UKIP do poll well, say 4-6%, it’ll be in safe seats, not marginals, and so, won’t affect the outcome.
A recent poll (can’t remember by whom) asked the public how they trusted 10 different leading politicians.
Hague came very near the top.
96 - No he had his chance and blew it.
97 - Demands for polling evidence from the poster who claimed this poll showed UKIP were on 14% seem a little odd to be frank.
Betfair - Brent Central
Labour 1.75
Liberal Democrats 2.02
Conservative 7.4
Any Other 7.4
98. I genuinely believe Brown is not capable of saying sorry. The only times I’ve ever heard him utter the word is when he’s implicating someone else.
92. Yes - I suspect the phrase “cast iron” is not going to pass Dave’s lips again for a long long time.
88. Greens nearly favourites?
Staggering if true. Must admit a soft spot for Caroline Lucas even though I detest her politics.
105 Tim, unlike you, I apologised immediately, I misread it, its not a crime.
89. Tim is like a creationist on a scientific blog. You can argue all you want, it will avail you nothing. His position is entirely faith-based, and not susceptible to disproof.
“The public hates William Hague ” = “Show me the missing links”. The fact that we have 10,000 missing links will not register.
re 1 Gabble you’re really geting on my wik tonite, why dont you juste shut upp.
Thought you’d appreciate the spelling - to remind you of happier days in the bunker. I’d suggest Downfall as well just so you get a feeling of what the final few weeks will be like.
Betfair - Solihull
Conservative 1.5
Liberal Democrats 2
Any Other 10
Labour 23
Another couple of bad fronts open up for the government. Telegraph going with civil liberties stuff re email, web, etc database and 8 out of 10 hospital acquired infection not reported.
Post number 1 will be one to resurect at 3:30am the day after polling day!
Interesting report by Nick Robinson on the BBC News. Clearly Labour has ordered him to portray Brown as the victim in this sorry affair with the misspelt letter of condolence: ‘A vindictive campaign by The Sun against a man with poor eyesight and poor handwriting but with a honourable past’. Dreadful politics by Labour. Time has not tempered Mandelson’s fit of pique with Murdoch, and this tantrum is starting to lead Labour into some very dangerous territory.
93. Brown doesn’t do apologies, but if he did…
Betfair - Torbay
Conservative 1.05
Liberal Democrats 1.5
Labour 2.6
Any Other 2.6
114 - Only if we get an overnight count otherwise about 2pm on Friday.
Betfair - Westmorland & Lonsdale
Liberal Democrats 1.25
Conservative 1.75
Labour 2.52
Any Other 2.52
15. Agree it’s terrible politics and reflects Brown’s capacity for self-pity, which we saw in spades in ‘the long sulk’, nursing the fantasy that Blair cheated him to the top job. OK - so he’s got poor eyesight and bad handwriting. He also happens to be the Prime Minister. And he was writing to a grieving mother. I know where my sympathies lie.
118. Surely we’ll get enough overnight declarations to be able to know which way its gonna go?
110,did’nt the labour smearers have osborne in there sites a few months back and now we have them attacking hague,keep trying tim.
60. My own theory is along much the same lines. Once a PM has a very workable majority - above 70, say - extra MPs add little benefit and may even be a positive disadvantage for slightly contradictory reasons. On the one hand, it becomes harder to keep discipline as the threat from the opposition is minimal and there’s plenty of scope for plotting internally (and there are also proportionally fewer sinecures to hand out); on the other, bad policy is easier to get enacted and not challenged as rebellions are more easily overcome.
To that end, Cameron and Tory high command would much rather spend the political capital on ends rather than means: policies rather than majorities. The acknowledgement that cuts would have to be made was one such, the ‘dropping’ of the Lisbon pledge was another (I dispute that there was a pledge to be dropped but it was inevitable that that is how it would be seen). The more open and up front he can be before the election, the greater the mandate he has for afterwards.
Getting public backing in this way makes it easier to deliver on pledges and so win the election afterwards but first the 2010 election has to be won and there’s only so much leeway the electorate will give. Each time the lead becomes very large, Cameron takes an early hit for the longer game - the exact opposite of Brown who constantly wants the quick fix. That said, it’s far, far easier to play the long game when you’re 10-15% ahead than fighting for survival.
re 77 I find it difficult to fathom how this corrupt government can sink any further into the sewer.
117/119 Thes aren’t fully formed markets, what’s the point in posting them?
Betfair - Swansea West
Labour 1.11
Liberal Democrats 1.2
Conservative 1.36
Plaid Cymru 1.36
Any Other 1.36
93 Of course not. He explained to her that because Labour had not shirked taking hard choices and making the right decisions, misspelt letters of condolence have been growing by ten percent per year in real terms since 1997.
121 - Possibly, but we may also have enough surprises to leave some uncertainty.
If there is now amove to appoint a female socialist to the EU High Poo Bah how about this lady?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lisabeth_Guigou
She has got a better CV than Baroness Ashton of Upholland.
Betfair - Edinburgh South
Conservative 1.25
Liberal Democrats 1.25
Labour 2.5
SNP 2.5
Any Other 2.5
123. I think that’s a very convincing argument and fits with the hand Cameron has played. But I can’t help wishing the lead was above 15 points all the same.
BTW can anyone explain where Martin Coxall is coming from (politically that is). I’m confused by him.
Betfair - Glasgow North East by-election
Labour 1.3
SNP 3.5
Any Other Party 200
How are things looking on the whole overnight count issue? Is it still looking like most authorities are going to delay until the Firday daytime?
This is how the Democrats are viewed after Fort Hood…
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_PxZyE6Jgabo/SvglzRDxxMI/AAAAAAAAK3Q/WiAWwy3sjCc/s1600-h/theo3.jpg
104. He may well be next Labour leader - but not before the election.
It’ll be a different ballgame afterwards. If the final result leaves Cameron with a smallish majority, people like Harman will still be very much in play. If it looks like a two-term recovery, Miliband ought to be right in among the front-runners.
The banana thing is overdone. As FS, he’ll attract less blame for Labour’s mess than those involved with domestic and especially economic policy. He’s also not as close to Brown as some others (including his brother). Both points should help him escape some of the blame. On the downside, he went to the brink then pulled back - worse than either not moving at all or going for it.
Even so, at this stage, Purnell looks to be as well placed as anyone but don’t expect a noise out of him before the election now.
133 - Yes because there are fears that they could face corporate manslaughter charges in some really bizarre made up scenarios amongst other stupid reasons.
SNP candidate says Labour are ahead in Glasgow NE:
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/west-central/136023-snp-candidate-says-labour-are-ahead/
131: ‘BTW can anyone explain where Martin Coxall is coming from (politically that is). I’m confused by him.’
Martin is libertarian Tory to the best of my knowledge.
137 - Expectations management.
Stuart
Tim’s right. The Betfair constituency markets aren’t active enough to be meaningful.
The Party Seats Line is however starting to liven up. The recent drop in the Labour level perhaps reflects a growing awareness of how different it is in concept to the Spread Markets.
I still think Labour is a sell at around 198 on the PSL market, but not on the Spreads, which are about right at their currnt mid-points of approximately 202.
135. But taking a step back from chatterati circles, do either Miliband or Purnell really convince? I can’t see either of them getting real public backing. I’d still say Johnson has more credibilty than either of them. Even post-Nutt.
Betfair - Next Prime Minister
David Cameron 1.39
Alan Johnson 9.2
David Miliband 22
Ed Miliband 28
Harriet Harman 32
Alistair Darling 40
Peter Mandelson 42
Jack Straw 42
Charles Clarke 50
Jon Cruddas 50
John Denham 55
Ed Balls 75
James Purnell 80
William Hague 100
George Osborne 100
Hilary Benn 120
Yvette Cooper 150
Liam Fox 180
Nick Clegg 200
Jane Kennedy 400
Caroline Flint 450
David Davis 500
Jacqui Smith 700
Chris Huhne 760
Ruth Kelly 760
Tessa Jowell 1000
Charles Kennedy 1000
137
should read
…labour are a headless chicken….
I think you missed some of your sentence.
131 - Pro NHS,pro science libertarian Tory with a healthy loathing of the Daily Mail and all other forms of bigotry.
Fancies Phillip Blond and slightly overwight (allegedly)
Well, some of us did warn about random fluctuations, and will very likely therefore collect on this bet:
I still think 6% to 10% is the best bet here. Remember we are talking about the minimum lead from five pollsters and perhaps ten polls or so; there is bound to be some random variation even if the underlying levels of support are unchanged from now.
by Richard Nabavi October 28th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
Is this any more than that? Maybe - we’ve now had two polls out of three possibly showing a touch of pro-UKIP, anti-Cameron petulance about a non-existent U-turn, irrational though it is.
But even if this is a blip which is outside the MOE, I expect it to fade as the mini-tantrum dies down.
102. I hope you are right. Otherwise EUKIP will prevent Conservative Eurosceptic MPs from entering Westminster, allowing Cameron to weaken his repatriation of powers programme as PM and go unpunished.
Hague is acting out the weakling role purely to relax the media, who otherwise would be up in arms attacking Cameron for daring to suggest any repatriation of powers. It is so obviously an acted role, it stands out a mile. Hague can turn on the strength when he wants to.
136? What, they fear the job of counting votes is going to be so great that counts across the land are going to find people dropping dead?
141 - I think Labour are looking at being in a position where the people that the next leader needs to convince is not the floating voter. In many ways the next Labour leader needs to patch up the Labour family first then look to widen out the appeal. This is likely to be a two term strategy. Indeed the person who succeeds Brown may not necessarily lead Labour back to power.
Free health checks for patients in middle age, Gordon Brown will announce
Patients in middle age are to be offered an NHS health check every five years, Gordon Brown will announce today. By 2012, everyone aged 40 to 74 will be entitled to free checks to assess their risk of heart disease, stroke, diabetes and kidney disease as part of an extension of patients’ rights being proposed by the Government.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article6910262.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797084
A re-announcement of a re-announcement? Also, haven’t certain health professionals and government types bashed the likes of LifeScan, who basically offer his service to paying customers in the past?
Betfair - Leader Exit Dates - Gordon Brown
Oct - Dec 2009 14
Jan - Mar 2010 5.6
Apr - Jun 2010 1.84
Jul - Sep 2010 5.9
Oct - Dec 2010 27
Jan 2011 Onwards 6
138. Thanks Robusticus. Very latitudinarian perhaps. You can’t get further from libertarian Conservative than Tim, yet MC rates him.
At last Gordon has come across as a sympathetic and decent human being and all thanks to Dave’s new best friends-’The Soaraway Sun’! Who’d have guessed!!.
The poll shows that there is a large vote out there for someone and it isn’t Dave Gordon or Nick. A new Labour leader and I reckon they could win without a hung parliament.
141. Two key things to remember: who the electorate will be for the election and the circumstances in which it will be held.
142. My best bet of 2009 was getting 3/1 for Cameron Next PM during Brown’s June wobble. It should more than cover my early F1 season losses (Button? In a new car? He’ll not win. Twice.).
152. Don’t be ridiculous Roger - Today has been a complete disaster for Gord, no amount of spin that he is somehow the victim in all of this will change that!
Betfair - Lib Dem seats
70 or Over 5
65-69 12
60-64 9
55-59 8
50-54 6
45-49 7.4
40-44 10
39 or Under 5.4
152. I think the image of a weeping mum reading out the letter will burn a powerfully negative opinion of brown in people’s mind.
152. Don’t know about the Soaraway Sun Roger - you sound like you’re suffering from soaraway sunstroke.
152 - Err, Roger, the tiny little problemette with that logic is that, assuming there is any meaningful swing at all in this poll, the beneficiaries appear to be UKIP. It’s not clear how a new leader will help Labour’s position in that regard, unless he or she is Eurosceptic.
152. Roger - “A new Labour leader and I reckon they could win without a hung parliament.”
Are you listening NPMP?
147 - This is where it comes from. http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/nov/09/election-thursday-corporate-manslaughter
151 - PollyB - you tried to link me to left wing/Islamist anti semitism one night, I don’t think you’re insight is too clever yet.
re 152. You are learning Roger - put forward a prediction that can’t be tested by events.
As a matter of fact I agree with the broad sentiment - Labour will do a lot better without Brown and it could bring the election into hung parliament territory.
Fortunately for the blues your Mr. Brown doesn’t look as though he’s going anywhere. You are lumbered.
157. Its a hard life for Roger sipping Champagne and sitting out in the Cote D’Azure sun all day.
145 Richard Nabavi. From the outset that 11-15% band looked vulnerable.PP had it as EVENS but Aaron called it as a 3-1 shot.
As things turned out the 11-15 went good favourite but now it has gone.
Some of those markets on Betfair just aren’t worth the bother,Stuart, but I don’t mind if you want to give my ‘Lib Dem Seats’ a plug.Also the ‘Conservative Seats’ deserves a mention.
160 - FFS. I’m sure people can make their own judgments if they are fit to drive etc, like they do every day of their adult life.
Betfair - Next General Election - Date and Most Seats
2010 or later Conservatives 1.11
2010 or later Labour 9
July 09-Dec 09 Conservatives 26
July 09-Dec 09 Labour 75
Any Date/Any Other Party 95
Roger, get your cash on!
164 URW - Indeed so. People were interpreting the bet as though it were about the average lead.
161 TIMBOT, you really do have a thing about attacking women posters don’t you? Very odd. Still, it makes a change from your tactic throughout most of the thread of repeating a lie, until everyone believes it. How very New Labour.
54.Re Others.There is no way that others will be 17% ina GE unless the combined might of UKIP ,BNP and Greens each fight evry consituency.A figure near 12% (still up 4%) seems more likley.
There is thefore around 5% to fall back to the three main parties before the election.
How is UKIP vote drawn from in terms of main aprties as this could affect a few marginals?
The structure of marginal seats in Scotland, means that relatively few seats are likley to change hands.So the real battlkeis in England and Wales.
In terms of pollsters ICM Guardian are the guiding light-the current cumulative for 2009 is Con 42%,Lab 28%,Lib 19%,oth 13%,giving a likley final score for actual GE of Con 42%,Lab 27%,Lib 20%,other,11%.
162. I think Cam is well capable of taking on another Labour leader, actually. The very fact that in his time leading the Conservatives he’s have seen off two Labour leaders and two Lib-Dem leaders (three if you count Vince) would be an enormous feather in his cap on its own. Still, like you say, its not going to happen. Gords not going anywhere.
161. No I didn’t Tim. I linked you to rank hypocrisy and double standards. Quite a different matter. But of course twisting information is your stock in trade.
Front Pages,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Front-Pages-Of-The-National-Newspapers-On-Tuesday-November-10-2009/Media-Gallery/200911215447424?lpos=Home_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15447424_Front_Pages_Of_The_National_Newspapers_On_Tuesday_November_10%2C_2009
No Currant Bun yet.
65. tim
“Hague reminds people of the Tory party they loved to hate.”
Yes I imagine inherited wealth Labour supporters like yourself really hate Hague.
After all he’s a self made man from the poor side of Rotherham.
Bit difficult to make Bullingdon and Eton comments about Hague isn’t it.
164. URW, no sooner said than done:
Betfair - Conservative seats
400 or Over 3.3
375 - 399 5.2
350 - 374 5
325 - 349 5.7
300 - 324 8.8
275 - 299 16.5
250 - 274 21
249 or Under 21
148. Worth looking at some form of parties who choose new leaders after long spells in government here.
Tories (1965). Heath, who went down to a landslide defeat in 1966, did manage a surprise win in 1970 but then proved himself totally unsuited to the job of being PM, rather as Brown has.
Labour (1980). Technically, Labour has only been in government for five years but the Wilson era really spanned 1964-79 without any serious renewal in between. They picked Michael Foot.
Tories (1997). William Hague. Perhaps Clarke would have split the party; perhaps not. Either way, Hague wasn’t ready for the leadership at that point and though he just about kept the ship afloat, the Tories were as far from government when he left the leadership as when he took it.
There’s every chance that Labour will pick someone to replace Brown who wouldn’t be the public’s first preference. They might even be right to do so.
Toilets spinning the
“Populus say Con need 11% lead to be certain.”
It was 7%, now 11%…If the Tories win the popular vote by 11% and don’t get a majority, there will serious trouble.
What amazed me was how ugly Gord’s handwriting is
160. Thanks James.
It really does look like general election night is going down the pan - Along with everything else - Thanks for Labour and all its stupid regulations and red tape!
163.
160 / 178 - I reckon that could lose Labour a few more votes if that turns out to a factor in the decision. Imagine telling people, well you won’t know who has won, because H&S says….
173 - A post without WWCWWCWWCWWCWWC.
Well done, although my inheritance is news to me, Hague as he as shown is a poor politician but a good turn.
175. Look no futher than Harriet. She will take a traumatised Labour Party to her bosom and tell it everythings going to be OK.
176. If the Marcus Wood/David Herdson theory is correct, Toilets is doing Cam’s work for him.
I wonder if Andrew Cooper of Populus will “forget” to post the detailed datasheets on their website, within 2 working days, per BPC rules? Like he did last month. Without even a hint of remorse.
I’m not holding my breath.
181
Thats a bit rich coming from you tim, with your Waffen $$ Lativan nonsense that went on for weeks. In fact its hypocrisy of the worst kind.
60. “….. Mr C isn’t a beginner at media strategy himself as Mr Green and Carlton TV shareholders know to their profit)”"
Is the last line about Carlton TV shareholders meant to be a joke Marcus? I don’t think ex Carlton shareholders will find it funny.
182 - I think the problem is that Harriet is so obsessed with what can be construed as a crusade against men that I think she would do damage to Labour. What Labour need in opposition initially is someone who can keep the troops happy without seriously wrecking what is left of the party. Harriet doesn’t fit that bill, Johnson might, D Miliband might, Denham might.
Betfair - Next General Election - Overall Majority
Conservative Majority 1.37
No Overall Majority 4.6
Labour Majority 16
Any Other Party Majority 210
One thing that may save general election night is if Gord goes for a March 25th election (as recently rumoured) and splits the general election and local elections up?
Re:Newspapers
Telegraph and Independent are somewhat contradictory…
161. “I don’t think you’re insight is too clever yet”.
Well that makes a whole lot of sense. Are you sure you haven’t been writing letters for Mr Brown recently Tim?
Double thanks,Stuart Dickson. I have a lot to say about both of those Seat markets but I’ll cut it short.
In the Conservative Seat market the darling is the 400+ Band.I have Layed 3.5 more than once and have a feeling the Backer will be back !
The Lib Dem Seat market is far more subtle.The message here is that the punters like 50-64 and a little bit of 65-69.Anything under 50 has been shunned and 39- is despised.
Up top, the only two people in the world (up until the weekend) to Back LD at 70+ have been Peter the Punter and my good self.
186. I’m not sure though that Labour will be in any state of mind to think clearly about who they elect as their new leader.
Of course, we’re assuming Brown quits after defeat. Knowing him, he might well try and hold on as leader of the opposition - Particularly if Cameron only manages a smallish majority.
188
Cant see that, Labour are skint. not only that, holding both on the same day is their best hope of holding up their vote in the local elections.
185 - Give Marcus a break, I’m prepared to believe he has no knowledge of ITV Digital.
191 Do I detect a slight trembling in the vicinity of your wallet, URW?
192 - I think he would understand that having faced being got rid of prior to a defeat he wouldn’t have much hope in the wake of an actual defeat. Can’t see him sticking around to be honest, I suspect that loyal Brownites will chant the usual mantra about staying for the sake of unity and allowing time for the party to get over the shock of defeat etc. However Brown will go within days if not hours.
181,you been watching to many rory bremner’s old shows tim
I predicted the Snp would win Glasgow East and I predict a Labour majority of about 5,000 in Glasgow North East. There is no byelection excitement and ther will be a poor turnout. Labour have been round the schemes filling in people’s postal votes. This election will be a non event. However I have come across a few BNP supporters when out canvassing. Nothing for Libs and nothing or Tories (although people are more ashamed to say they vote Tory than BNp). BNp might well come third but more likely beat Libs to fourth place.
193. Nor’ can I really. Just clutching at straws because I don’t want Browns humiliation delayed for several hours after we’ve all voted to boot him out.
‘Jim Devine denies harassing Tory woman’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6909087.ece
186. What a party needs and what it does can be two quite different things. As I was trying to show at [175], parties often make decisions which are against their best interests, either because they’re talking to themselves or settling internal scores, or because they’re allowing the other side to dominate the terms of debate and picking someone on that basis.
It’s arguable that in 1965, the Tories would have done better with Maudling than Heath; after 1980, Healey would surely have put up a better show for Labour than Foot; in 1997, Clarke was far more popular in the country (and the membership of the Tory Party) than Hague and would have been the logical choice if the European question could have been adequately sorted out.
I agree that Harman is a very serious contender to replace Brown (she’s also been noticably quiet recently).
196. I hope so. I want him gone from public life forever.
Though I suspect he’ll turn up in some made up EU finance job by 2013.
196 That’s not a foregone conclusion, James.
There’s certainly a case for believing he will stay on whilst the Party selects a new leader, and that could be a fairly lengthy procedure. That’s assuming he doesn’t quit suddenly.
OK, I live in hope…..
195 PtP.Quite the reverse,good sir. Your bet has longtime been hedged.
My overall Lib Dem book is the most chaotic I have ever had.71+ is a small loser still but not my worst.
I still go with no overall majority. Labour will make a small if unspectacular recovery as the campaign starts, narrowing the gap to 7 or 8 points and the LD conference showed us what a bounce they get from increased media attention. I can see the LD’s losing ten seats to the Tories. But equally I can see them gaining three or four and a good 10 from Labour. Difficult to see them dropping below 55 and 60 looks more likely.
If the SNP recover, up to 110 minor party seats makes a hung parliament increasingly likely and Cameron and Clegg sensible enough to see the need for an arrangement.
198. Balach
Thanks.
And what about Smeaton? 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, err…
193 - Indeed Labour can’t move the locals to March to coincide with an early election as that would look silly but they can barely afford one campaign let alone two. Labour’s big problem is when to spend money. If they hoard for the campaign proper they leave the Conservatives with a massive funding advantage prior to the imposition of the spending cap. If they try to keep up they are going to find themselves massively outspent and have no money for the actual campaign.
Now the funding advantage won’t of itself make a great deal of difference to the overall outcome but can make a difference in particular seats and with the target seats operation that the Conservatives have in place then Labour have fundamental issues in terms of air war and ground game.
Not sure wat the source of this is but it says Gordo is being pressurised to release Milliband for the High Poo Bah’s job and Poland have ruled out Massimo d’Alema.
http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=n199885
This reminds me of the type of market you get when a major football team is looking for a new manager! Its best avoided.
203 - I agree not a certainty but I think it is fairly likely that he will go rather quickly.
198 . Balach - may ask which party have you been canvassing for?
Ladbrokes - Glasgow North East by-election - Finish 3rd?
John Smeaton 11/8
Conservatives 11/8
Liberal Democrats 12/1
Greens 20/1
Tommy Sheridan 25/1
Mikey Hughes 33/1
Any Other Candidate 5/1
210. Goupillon
SNP
191. Disappointingly, no-one’s taken the 4/1 on offer for LD 70+ yet though. Surely there must be some who think they’ll have a very good night?
Ladbrokes - Glasgow North East by-election - Smeaton Votes?
Under 1000 evens
1000-2000 evens
Over 2000 6/1
212. Thanks Stuart.
isnt this the radical policy that would finally seal the deal for cameron? I thought it was great when suggested by IDS and quite dissapointed when not adopted. But now it looks like he might just do it…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/6533344/David-Cameron-to-set-out-blueprint-to-tackle-poverty.html
All he needs to do is hes delaying the IHT raise to pay for the upfront cost and he’ll finally be the party of the poor.
Re Miliband and EU job
This afternoon Italian papers were saying that he was withdrawing (and that socialistis were leaning towards d’alema).
However tonight it has apparently changed and he has never “withdrawn” but he’s in “stand- by”…whatever it means
181. tim
Hit a soft spot did I?
I did assume that you had inherited your farm, evidently I’m mistaken and you actually purchased it from your earnings from commenting on PB all day.
I’m surprised you didn’t squeeze a reference to Latvians and Poles in with your Hague comment.
Better leave yourself a reminder for next time
Apologies for overdoing the WWC references though I can claim the excuse that I work alongside them during the day and that much of my extended family belong to the grouping. Hearing the complaints of the proles does give you a different view of the world.
I must say I am a little disappointed that you didn’t make any use of my tirade against Cameron in the previous thread!
Ladbrokes - Glasgow North East by-election - Turnout?
Under 38% 5/6
38% or Over 5/6
SkyBet - Lib Dem seats
Under 50.5 10/11
Over 50.5 4/5
I wondered today if Balach would post something. I suppose it depends on where you were canvassing but when I was there a few weeks ago I did find small pockets of Tory voters.
204 Only kidding of course, URW, but I am becoming a lot more bullish about my LD positions generally.
A few weeks back I wouldn’t have cared to say which way the LD seats market was going but I’m pretty sure now it’s heading North. 50 seats now strikes me as a worst case scenario and if Labour stay with Brown and he continues to perform as he has done for the last two years, the Yellow Peril could have a field day next May.
I’m sure you have my bet covered, but that will not in any way diminish my satisfaction at receiving your cheque!
SkyBet - Conservative seats
Under 360.5 5/6
Over 360.5 5/6
the sun going on letter again. Apparently brown wasnt wrong according to… himself! This is what he told the mother during his apology.I wonder if he managed to say the s word!
218 - I read your Cameron rant, you’ll be urging a protest vote for UKIP in a by election in 2012.
By the way, how do the WWC vote differntly from the mixed race working class?
221. marcia
Thanks.
And what about Smeaton? 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, err…
224 - Link?
216 - Compaire & contrast Cameron and Brown. Cameron will be talking about poverty tomorrow and Brown will be explaining why he had a 13 minute row after he called to appologise for miss-spelling a dead soldiers name in his letter to his mother.
The Sun looks very bad for Brown tomorrrow.
Holy Crap seen the front page now, that looks classic Gordo,
I AM RIGHT YOU ARE WRONG…
BBC are going to have to go into Defcon 1 to put a positive spin on this one, if the headline is anything to go by.
220/222.As an uncanny prescript to your post,PtP,Stuart Dickson highlights the 4-5 with Skybet Over 50.5 Lib Dem Seats.
This bet is a provocation and a personal affront, as I tipped it a couple of weeks ago and the price hasn’t moved.
OGH gave it the big thumbs up.I prefer to keep my business on the Betfair Line but that Skybet price is a standout.
229 Gordon Brown, the gift that goes on giving. What a silly twit that man is, arguing with the dead soldiers grieving mother.
232. Labour can’t stop digging…
…btw I couldn’t help noticing how similar Austin’s patronising remarks about the Mother were to those posted earlier today by some of the usual leftish suspects. Is it a case of ‘great minds think alike’ or….
This incident gives an amazing insight into the working of The Great Leader and how it must give the likes of Mandy sleepless nights (and why so few people want to be involved in the campaign).
They will have to get him out the bunker and appear to meet the public, but if he meets the real public, how will he react to a slightly difficult question. It is always a disaster waiting to happen. They have done the schools visits and safe Labour seats to death already, and the likes of the Sun are clearly going to be on the case for any balls up.
231 You are right, URW, it is, but I won’t bother. I already win big if the LDs come in over 50 seats, although I confess I did balls up my early betting on them. I bought far too early and suffered as they dipped in the polls and the markets.
They look pretty good to me now though. If any of those Labour doomsday scenarios are right, the LDs could be just as pleased with the next GE result as the Tories.
newspapers,it’s got the sun front page,
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Front-Pages-Of-The-National-Newspapers-On-Tuesday-November-10-2009/Media-Gallery/200911215447424?lpos=Home_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15447424_Front_Pages_Of_The_National_Newspapers_On_Tuesday_November_10%2C_2009
226 - that would be a hard guess as I haven’t been there for a while -
from what I am told it could read as
Lab, SNP, Con, Sol, Smeaton, LD, Grn, SSP etc but I wouldn’t put any money on anything certain other than the main two! Expect a low turnout though.
Btw, has anybody else on here noticed that nobody - absolutely nobody - who posts from a left of centre perspective thinks that Labour will do better if Brown stays and leads them into the GE?
Even in the darkest days of Major and IDS, there were always some Tories who thought the Leader was the best option. Nobody at all from the red corner thinks Labour’s current Leader should stay.
It’s astonishing.
236 - A full transcrpit of a 13 minute call?
If they’ve put a wire on the soldiers mothers phone then they’ve overplayed their hand.
This incident also shows what an absolute disaster the media management is in the Bunker. So Gordo fires off these letters unchecked. Then his official spokes-person (was it the Lewis guy, brother of Telegraph editor, I wonder? or has he been shifted already) puts his foot in it by wittering on about sorry can’t read them. Then Gordo statement is garbage. Then he rings the mother, now they must suspect that since she went to the Sun in the first place, she at the very least is going to repeat the story to them and more likely they will record it. So, rather than just humbly apologise, it looks like he has had a disagreement with her and not said sorry.
How many f##k-ups can you have in one day? (as I’m sure Malcolm Tucker would say).
239. Andy Coulson is otherwise engaged these days, tim, you know that.
238 - Who thought IDS was the right choice?
Name names.
Dear me sounds like panic stations at the bunker…
@242:
Tim Montgomerie.
217. That’s interesting Andrea. So who was planting all the stories about Miliband withdrawing? Shurely not No.10? I know received wisdom is Brown wants to rid himself of the Miliband threat, but perhaps the threat of his Foreign Secretary walking out now is worse. It makes it look as if there’s no confidence left in the government. At any rate I thought the story about Miliband pulling out didn’t make sense.
Surely The Sun will have broken the law if they recorded the call without the PM’s consent?
I can see labour ,with the help of the bbc trying to turn the story on the sun newspaper.
241 That reminds me - when’s he going to be fired TIMBOT?
242 Pretty much everybody on ConHome, Tim. Some of them drift over here from time to time, but naturally I wouldn’t name them, out of a sense of courtesy…and fear of libel suits.
247. Chances of success….zero
246 - The front page doesn’t say anything about the transcript, it just says find out what Gordo told the mother during a 13 minute telephone conversation.
247 - They already on the case. Drive on R5 this evening, they said along the lines of “well we have had a lot of texts and emails saying that this is typical of Rupert Murdoch, the Tories new best friend”…
238 Peter
I presume that’s because there aren’t any(?) Scots Labour posters on here. They are desperate for Brown to stay on as leader. Labour would benefit in England, but suffer up here if someone like Milliband became leader.
“Gordon Brown in secret push to sell ‘Tobin tax’ to City”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/nov/09/tobin-tax-gordon-brown-city
247 - No chance, Gordo arguing with the mother rather than apologise is not possible to spin. She may go nuclear and speak to the other media outlets if BBC/Labour try to spin this, if there is not a video on The Sun website tomorrow.
254 - Flog that barely breathing horse, giddy up giddy up….
245. Apparently, socialist euro group sources were the culript
239. That’s what Ian Blair did; yet Labour continued to back him.
Britain’s top policeman is being urged to explain why he secretly taped a phone call with the attorney general.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4800172.stm
253 Afaik, Oldnat, Mike Smithson does not bar Scottish Labour supporters from posting on his Site.
Are you telling me that from amongst the thousands that post here, we have no Labour supporters from North of the Border?
255 - see post #93
Nick Robinson says the mother of the soldier has told the sun what Brown said to her on the phone, and that he did NOT apologise during the 13 minute converation.
‘Lettergate’ continues to gather a head of steam all due to Brown and his advisors.
by John November 9th, 2009 at 10:21 pm
Seems the Beeb already know.
255 - in the current political climate, I think most of the sympathy would be with the Mother and Brown should tread with caution as this could spiral out of his control if it hasn’t already.
All this makes you wonder what the army of highly paid advisers and spanners, I mean spinners, that Gordo has employed at our expense are doing all day. Posting on PB.com?
250 - perhaps they are happy with the status quo just as oldnat says.
259 - there has been the a couple over the years usually popping up on by-election days only.
261 Indeed, Marcia. This is dangerously close to toxic for the PM.
The best he can hope for now is that it blows over but if he keeps blundering along as he has done so far, goodness knows where it will end.
259 Peter
Mike would never be discriminatory! I simply note that I can’t identify any Scots Lab supporters. Perhaps none of them bet?
Gordon’s opened up a war on two fronts - fighting Cameron is one thing. Fighting Murdoch (so lately his best friend as everyone knows) is another.
262.
231 - thanks for that URW, have taken a chunk to partially offset my 6/4 under 62.5. Quite hopeful of collecting the middle.
264 So where are they now in Gordon’s hour of need? Why aren’t they flag-waving for him?
Btw, are they new slippers you have on?
239 Bizarre wording, tim. Are you in fact a character in an early John le Carre novel?
And I think they are in the clear provided she forewarned Gordo that she might be recording him “for quality and training purposes”.
266 I suspect the truth is simpler, Oldnat. They don’t appreciate him any more than us Southern Softies do.
269 “So where are they now in Gordon’s hour of need? ”
In Glasgow, perhaps
267 - Fighting Murdoch, there will only be one winner.
At the moment, it is only the Sun who have their guns firmly trained on the government. Sky and the Times still give them a reasonably fair hearing.
Also, as they say keep your friends close and your enemies closer, what has Murdoch’s men got in the filing cabinets if events dictate? After 12 years of government and a lifetime in politics for most of the high profile Labourites, I wouldn’t like to think what muck he has to throw if required.
there will only be -> there will only ever be
269 - as Balach at 198 said - ‘Labour have been round the schemes filling in people’s postal votes.’
That’s the way to do it,Aaron ! I have similar business on the Betfair Line,being a Buyer at 48.0 and a Seller at 60.0 with lots of bets in between.
My average Buy is 50.44 and my average Sell is 57.47.I reckon the median point according to the bookies is 54.5 although the Spreads are lower.
272 Well, they sure ain’t posting on PB, my milanese mate.
How goes it anyway, young Andrea? You going to be visting more regularly now that things are warming up here?
Mrs Janes has probably had a Sun journalist with her all day. They were probably there when Brown rang her.
240 Those Labour f*ck-ups: on the hour, every hour, for an hour…
279 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T0Ofr6VYMI&
Excuse the swearing.
254. Laura Tobin???
273. Now there’s a thought!
And to think only this morning it seemed such a minor, nonentity of a story, quite easy to quash.
282 - Tucker’s Law in action.
I remember thinking at the time, the Sun coming out for the Tories 6 months prior to a possible G.E. might cause some problems for Gordon . . .didn’t imagine this sort of thing so early, nor how helpful Brown would be.
Memo to self, re-fill fridge and stock up on popcorn.
Ladbrokes have just closed taking any bets on Glasgow NE.
285. Correction - they have closed taking any bets on Labour to win Glasgow NE.
I think the Sun has gone far too far with its coverage of this mother’s grief.
Anecdotes, I know, but two sworn Brown haters in my office today expressed sympathy for him.
My own stance is that he is stupid not to let an aide check the letters, but the press should expose the truth about Brown’s immoral nature. Decisions such as wilfully underfunding, under-resourcing and under-committing our troops. Decisions such as the anti-Gurkha campaign. Decisions like the 10p tax debacle. Decisions like the target-obsession leading to tragedies at Staffordshire. The attitude which led to Damian McBride being seen as acceptable.
The letters of condolence are poorly written, but then, they are the fruit of a man with poor writing. There is something very distasteful about the way the Sun has gone about this.
Re my post at 287
I meant to say:
My own stance is that he is stupid not to let an aide check the letters, but the press should expose the truth about Brown’s immoral nature rather than this faux outrage over one family’s terrible experience.
Milliband now ready to quit Cabinet to take High Poo Bah job!
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/139325/Miliband-ready-to-quit-for-Euro-job
It’s all rather reminiscent of the screw up over the Gordon says sorry about Smeargate letters. The headlines were all about Gordon’s abject apology, which hit the airwaves before anyone had received a letter. And when they did arrive it appeared there was no apology after all.
287 I shared that sympathy for Brown, like your colleagues. I thought the letter a noble sentiment, if poorly executed.
However, that was before the f*ckwit took his earlier crass errors into a new realm - if The Sun is to be believed - by having a 13 minute argument with a grieving mother.
Sometimes, you just have to make your excuses and hang up….not indulge in a lengthy game of “I’m right, you’re wrong!”
287 ‘The letters of condolence are poorly written, but then, they are the fruit of a man with poor writing. There is something very distasteful about the way the Sun has gone about this.’
That’s as may be, but anyone with even the slightest sense of decency would tear up a letter of condolence and start again, were they to miss-spell the name of the dead, rather than attempt a ham fisted scrawling out and correction. My handwritings pretty bad, but if the occasion demands it, I can find the time to do it properly. So should Brown.
288 - BBC News say they expect an audio version of the call in the next few hours.
That is going way too far, however The Sun know how BBC/Labour will spin this so I guess they think the audio will sink their spin plans.
Obama is going to send 40000 troops to Afghanistan
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/11/09/world/main5592551.shtml
Excellent news.
293 - It depends what Gordo says. If he fairly civil, but disagrees politely on a small point, it could look bad on The Sun. If he starts wibbling and getting really angry, well that is a different matter. We still haven’t seen or heard a proper Gordo outburst, though we know they happen regularly.
Will he? Won’t he! I suspect it all comes down to Blair giving him the go ahead and that will only happen when he gives up on his chances for the presidency job.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b328a6bc-cd8b-11de-8162-00144feabdc0.html
293 is this “The Thick of It” Xmas Special come early?
295 (cont) He got very very close on that infamous R4 appearance.
296 ‘Mr Miliband had emerged as the frontrunner to be Europe’s new foreign policy chief, but last night it appeared he had set his sights instead on succeeding Gordon Brown as Labour leader.’
This is going to be fun.
271 Peter
Normally, I’m happy to knock Brown for any reason.
But if you look back to last summer’s polls when the Labour leadership was a frenzy in the media, there is a distinct difference between Scottish and English responses on their tendency to support Labour under different leaders.
Labour in Scotland is the last refuge of political tribalism.
Does hectoring a grieving mother of a squaddie rank slightly above or slightly below punching a puppy?
Perhaps Miliband senses the job might be coming his way sooner than previously thought. Perhaps he has the two doctors lined up ready to section Brown?
292 EdP
“I can find the time to do it properly. So should Brown.”
The story is mince, but it does focus attention on the death of British troops dying in Afghanistan. Whatever temporary sympathy there might be for Brown, I think that troop deaths will be what remain in people’s minds.
The Sun and NuLab are both nasty manifestations of populism, so I don’t mind which suffers most.
292 Well yes, Ed. I don’t suppose a handwritten letter was entirely necessary but if he was going to do it, it was essential it was done properly. It wasn’t. It looked an appalling mess and I am baffled as to how it came to be sent.
Does he not have aides to check that sort of thing? Is he so bombastic that he doesn’t allow them to? Is he unaware how poor his writing is and that he makes basic spelling mistakes?
It is all very strange and doesn’t look very good at all, even after every allowance has been made for eyesight, stress, hurry and all the rest of it. Sheesh, it’s on the face of it a minor matter but somehow it’s turning into the stuff of political nightmares.
Polly’s latest out pouring show why she is the Guardians No.1 spoof writer.
“A Tobin transaction tax would be a bold, sensible, social democratic move”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/10/brown-tax-convert-hard-believe
300 Not disputing any of it, Oldnat.
So where are the left-leaning Scottish posters on PB? Scots are not, in my experience, exceptionally reticent. You telling me we have an atypical sample on this Site?
305. “So where are the left-leaning Scottish posters on PB?”
Right here, for starters, Peter!
O/T. I wonder if anyone could give me some advice. I’ve received an e-mail out of the blue offering to directly purchase advertising space on my blog for a year. The email says it would be an advert for a financial market trading site. Does anyone have any experience of this kind of thing? I’m just wondering if it sounds like a scam.
Anyway, I’m off to bed. Spent too much time pondering the workings of Labour’s political elite. Not good for the soul.
Nite all.
Re Labour and Murdoch - it’s worth noting that another issue is about to explode - the review of Listed Sporting Events by the David Davies Committee is being sent to the Secretary of State today.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/cricket/article6910151.ece
This is an issue where I suspect there will be a lot of public support for various events returning to free TV. But the sports bodies and Sky are going to be furious.
303 Peter the Punter
According to the Express (though not verified by aides) Brown insists on writing the condolence letters without letting aides read them, and on sealing the envelopes personally.
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/139322/Bungling-Brown-says-sorry-over-soldier-letter
I can certainly understand and even appreciate the sentiment behind this, if true. The grief and solemnity of the letters might make a person feel that they should rise above PR considerations when writing them - it could easily become a personal ritual with an almost spiritual dimension - in the same way that funerals have rites.
(The trouble with this line of argument is simply that it is not correct. It is probably more important to get the act right than the intention, even if the act involves grubbier mechanisms.)
Anyway, having thus dispensed with all checks by aides, it is easy to see a tired Gordon Brown at 3am rushing off this letter. Due to his poor eyesight and poor handwriting, he doesn’t realise how badly it has come across. He seals the envelope, and next thing, it is on the front page of the Sun.
Once again, the story comes down to Gordon Brown’s judgment. He knows he has bad handwriting. It has been a political issue before, with Nadine Dorries complaining about the apology non-letter over Smeargate. Good leaders learn from their mistakes, and go out of their way not to make identical or similar mistakes again.
You won’t find me defending Gordon Brown’s handling of this - he has made too many mistakes elsewhere for him to be afforded such compassion. I hope, for crude political reasons, that the story damages him immensely. All I will say is that I am prepared to understand his point of view - and that is a rare occurrence.
Nevertheless, the way the Sun has behaved is really quite poor - but worse, from their perspective, transparent. I think it was a massive tactical victory for them to have nail their colours to the Tory mast so early - but it will mean that everything they say henceforth will be painted through that prism, and accordingly somewhat discounted.
306 James Kelly
Me too. Pity that Peter has gone to bed. I wanted to ask him why he still uses the archaic language of “Left” to describe Labour.
I wonder if Mandy keeps preaching about how evil the Sun is, how long it will before we hear the “chump” tape? Might trump this one,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uu52AfwgQzs&
surely showing ukip on 4.3% is meaningless given the margin of error in the poll?
312 - Dan, the margin of error is smaller for small or large percentages (and peaks at 50% reported).
The standard error is given by root(p(1-p)/n) - assuming a sample of 1000, this gives a standard error of 0.6%, which in turn gives a 95% confidence interval (+/- S.E. x 1.96) of 3.0% - 5.6%
All in all though, I don’t think anyone’s votes will be swayed by today’s Sun revelations.
A media cycle draw is as good as a win for Cameron at this stage - and the fact that the story will eat up two precious pre-election days is probably good enough.
314 “I don’t think anyone’s votes will be swayed by today’s Sun revelations”
I beg to differ and your 4 long posts on the subject are hardly evidence that you believe it either.
315 SimonStClare
I plead guilty to long posts - but that one of the things I do sometimes.
I genuinely don’t think there are many who were going to vote Labour yesterday but who aren’t going to vote Labour today - or converserly, who weren’t going to vote Labour but now will.
Such stories never move the polls in themselves - only cumulatively, and that too largely by differentially impacting likelihood to vote.
Hasn’t OGH hypothesised about the effect of smear-gate on Labour polling numbers in the past? I seem to remember that there was evidence that Labour’s polling collapse to well below sub 30 came at the time of smear-gate rather than expenses scandal.
317 (cont) I don’t think today will necessary have moved that many votes. However, lets see what the tape is like, it might be Gordo trying to discuss things, or he could do Mr Angry.
If it is the latter, I think that could inflict some damage, a small story has become a bigger one, but at the moment I think the spin is probably just about working to a certain extent on those that don’t think too much about these things. Tired, bad eyesight, mistake in a letter, hmmm, will be a lot of peoples reaction and not consider much beyond that.
If on the other hand the Sun have Gordo on tape doing anything than being extremely polite to this lady, that is a different matter. Far more difficult to spin a mistake, if Gordo has phoned up and lost his rag.
316 – wibbler, on a pedantic point, you did originally state that in your opinion, no ‘voters’ would be swayed by this story rather than a polling point shift. I disagree with the former, not the latter. Imho, this story feeds into the narrative surrounding Brown at the moment and will entrench resentment against him, how that translates into votes is anyone’s guess and one should remember that this story is far from over.
“I plead guilty to long posts” And there is nothing wrong with that if you have something to say, Sir.
319 SimonStClare
One of my favourite wind-ups when talking to a pedantic person is to accuse them of “pedanticness”.
The turmoil as they struggle not to correct it to “pedantry” is great entertainment for the easily amused…
David Cameron to set out blueprint to tackle poverty
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/6533344/David-Cameron-to-set-out-blueprint-to-tackle-poverty.html
320 - “pedanticness” It just looks wrong, but you will have no argument from me on this issue, you will have to entertain yourself, I’m afraid
And on that note, good night all.
This story is of the badly written letter just got a bit worse this evening IMHO. Lots of sympathy for Gordon here and elsewhere in the media today, and tonight on Skynews, Mandelson going after the Sun etc. Jon Craig following on from Glen Oglaza earlier with a very supportive report, with emphasis now on how personal hurtful Brown has found today’s coverage.
As Mike highlighted in teh Paul Waugh comment on the previous thread.
“If there’s one thing that’s guaranteed to inflame this row, it is the insinuation that Mrs Janes is a poor, naive sop whose complaints are somehow not legitimate.”
Now we an attempt to portray Gordon Brown as the victim in this story instead of the grieving mother who got this letter. Others have taken comfort from the letters they received, as one said, he didn’t look or notice any mistakes.
But as I said on an earlier thread, it was a badly written letter with errors that should have seen it ripped up and done again without them. He was writing a personal note to the mother of a dead soldier, and as such I would have bothered to make sure that it was as carefully presented as every soldier is expected to be whilst on public duties.
I could be wrong here, but reading through PB.com today, I think that we have one of those male/female divides on show. Heard much of others bad handwriting, Easterross sounds like he writes like my other half. Women often do the writing duties in the household for a reason, Brown should have got Sarah or Sue Nye to pen these letters, and then he should have signed it. And if that had happened, we wouldn’t even be discussing this, never mind seeing it dominate the news today. No one would criticise Brown for seeking help to make sure a letter of this nature was as neatly presented as possible.
I cannot believe that after the state of the letter to Nadine Dorries that we are here again so soon on the same topic. Its about showing care and due diligence in a very poignant gesture, this letter didn’t do that.
320 wibbler
Good ploy - but I’d suggest “pedancicity”
320 wibbler
Even better “pedantcicity”. Too much good wine tonight! Off to bed.
294.Wibbler, just seen your post about Obama sending 40,000 troops to Afghanistan. That is incredible news.
ChristinaD
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZ71FJxCOJf4&pos=8
It’s being denied.
goodnight.
327.oldnat, thanks for that link.
“Obama hasn’t received final options that he has requested, neither has he reviewed those alternatives with his national security team, said National Security Adviser James Jones, responding to reports by the Associated Press and CBS News. The AP reported Obama would add “tens of thousands more forces,” while CBS said he plans to send four combat brigades plus thousands more support troops.”
It gets worse.
“In an interview with ABC News today, Obama said his extensive and expansive strategy-review meetings have given him greater confidence in whatever his final decision will be.
“I have gained confidence that there’s not an important question out there that has not been asked, and that we haven’t asked — that we haven’t answered to the best of our abilities,” Obama said.”
Well, that reassures me, not. Listen love, you are the President of the United States, and you have at your disposal the best military expertise a US President has had in many a year due to Iraq and now the conflict in Afghanistan. And still you cannot make your mind up! And while you dither, other countries wait. Incredible.
Shoplifting has surged to record levels in the UK, fuelled by the recession, according to a study
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8347222.stm
Oh the irony!
Daily Mail - After 25 years of moaning about Britain, comedian Ben Elton is off to Australia
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/campaigns/our_boys/2722106/Mum-at-war-Jacqui-Janes-the-full-transcript.html
‘I can’t believe I’ve been brought down to the level of having an argument with the Prime Minister of my own country’
Daily Mail - David Miliband condemned for ‘anti-Semitic’ claim
” David Miliband was facing a mounting backlash last night over his denunciation of the ‘anti-Semitic, neo-Nazi’ past of a key Conservative ally in Europe.
A group of 27 high-profile Jewish figures yesterday warned that such a serious charge was too serious to be treated as a ‘political football’.
The Foreign Secretary has made a series of attacks on Michal Kaminski, leader of Poland’s Law and Justice Party.
In his speech at the Labour Party conference in September he said Mr Kaminski’s ‘anti-Semitic, Neo-Nazi’ past made him ‘feel sick’.
Mr Miliband quoted Poland’s Chief Rabbi Michael Schudrich to support his case, but Mr Schudrich has since insisted that Mr Kaminski has ‘become a strong ally of the state of Israel and on other occasions has condemned anti-Semitism’.
Tory leader David Cameron has since demanded that Mr Miliband apologise for his remarks.
In a move aimed at piling the pressure on Mr Miliband, several leading Jewish figures have also called on the Foreign Secretary to retract his remarks in a public letter.
The signatories included Lord Young, the former trade secretary, Flo Kaufmann, the chairman of the board of governors of the European Jewish Congress and Howard Leigh, the chairman of Westminster Synagogue.
Their letter said: ‘Many people in the Jewish community have noted with concern the recent attacks on David Cameron’s allies in eastern Europe.’”
John Rentoul at Independent Minds - Darling is frustrated too
“I’m not the only one baffled by Gordon Brown’s support for a transactions tax that is never going to happen. Today’s Financial Times reports:
The prime minister’s handling of the issue provoked renewed tensions with the Treasury. Alistair Darling, chancellor, is understood to support the main thrust of Mr Brown’s argument but to be frustrated by the prime minister’s promotion of a proposal he knew the US would have no choice but publicly to oppose.
This is important because, if the Government is going to change prime minister before the election, Darling is likely to play a central role.”
Timesonline - Poll shows Britons see good times around the corner
And when the quantitative easing has stopped?
331 - Sounds like he got a right ear bashing, but he still continues to lie about / deny the smallest things. He refuses on a number of occasions that he has made any spelling mistakes other than the name of the solider. We have all seen the letter, it is clear there are many simple spelling mistkaes, why would you deny what we can see with our own eyes!
Last night Jacqui said of his call to her: “He told me he was sorry I had taken offence, not that he had caused it.
“He said sorry I couldn’t read his handwriting and he was sorry I felt so strongly. He said sorry 16 times, but he never apologised once.
“If he calls that an apology he doesn’t know what the word means.”
She added: “I didn’t want one more mum getting a letter like this. It was an insult to Jamie and to all the soldiers fighting for this country. It was indicative of this Government’s whole attitude to our Forces.”
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/campaigns/our_boys/2722174/Mum-Jacqui-Janes-at-war-PM-is-humbled.html#ixzz0WQJZZ1Jy
336 - Rumbled! The classic Gordo, I apology that you…I’m a sorry that you…
God almighty.
I’ve listened to Gordon’s audio on the Sun website… he’s actually arguing with her instead of just taking it on the chin and saying sorry.
What is wrong with him?
Direct link to the full version of the call
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/video/article300101.ece?vxSiteId=6247211d-66e0-4454-b73a-3f1610efa39a&vxChannel=Latest&vxClipId=1347_SUN27343&vxBitrate=300