YouGov points to big blue inroads in Wales
October 27th, 2009
CON 31% (+9.6)
LAB 34% (-8.7)
LD 12% (-6.4)
PC 15% (+2.4)
The first Wales-only YouGov poll
The much anticipated first YouGov voting intention poll of Welsh voters is just out and suggests that the Tories are going to make big gains in a part of the UK which used to be almost a blue-free zone. The comparisons above are with what actually happened in the Principality on May 5th 2005.
Then Labour won 29 of the 40 seats with the the Tories taking 3, the Lib Dems 4, Plaid 3 and one independent.
According to projections based on these numbers Labour could be down to just 20, the Tories on 10 seats which is a pretty good return for Brown’s party for barely one third of the votes.
In the Euro elections on June 4th, of course, the Tories came out as vote winners in Wales so today’s figures are not totally unexpected.
If these share actually happened then it would be the worst result for Labour in Wales since 1918. YouGov’s internet survey of 1,078 people was conducted on October 21-23.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First?
Much the same LAB -> CON swing as in England: about 9%.
Perhaps better for Labour than might have been expected based on the Euros? Still pretty bad though
Caution against predicting Lib Dem wipeout. In the seats they currently hold plus Swansea West and Newport East they will be competitive. Everywhere else they will be barely registering. YouGov have perhaps not the ICM track record either for the Lib Dems.
Painting the red dragon blue… If you’re a Labour man, that’s gotta hurt.
What seats change hands?
How many seats would Plaid win according to these findings? The line betting market says 5 seats:
Betfair - Party Seats Line
Con 355 - 366
Lab 203 - 208
LD 51 - 52
SNP 13 - 14
PC 4.5 - 5.5
DUP 6.5 - 8.5
Here was the 2005 UK GE result in Wales:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/vote2005/html/region_10.stm
re 4. In the PH Marginals poll earlier in the month just one Lib Dem loss was projected - Ceredigion to PC.
William Hill - Ynys Mon
Plaid Cymru 1/3
Labour 5/2
Conservative 10/1
Liberal Democrat 100/1
The geographical splits (usual caveats apply) from today’s ComRes poll have a common thread throughout the length and breadth of Great Britain: the Conservatives are found to be ahead of Labour in ALL areas. That’s right folks: even in Scotland!
However, the Tories average out at approx 42% in England&Wales, but only 24% in Scotland (and that is an unusually high figure for the Scottish Tories).
Labour are at just 25% in the marginal-rich Midlands (17 points behind the Tories).
Labour are in 3rd place (!!) in both Scotland and Wales&SWEngland.
ComRes/Independent
23-25 October 2009
(Sub-sample size in brackets)
South East England (sss = 254)
Con 42%
Lab 30%
LD 17%
Grn 8%
UKIP 3%
BNP 1%
oth 1%
English Midlands (sss = 261)
Con 42%
Lab 25%
LD 15%
Grn 5%
UKIP 5%
BNP 5%
oth 3%
North England (sss = 251)
Con 40%
Lab 34%
LD 20%
Grn 2%
BNP 1%
UKIP 1%
oth 1%
Wales and South West England (sss = 152)
Con 42%
LD 24%
Lab 22%
UKIP 5%
Grn 3%
BNP 2%
PC 2%
Scotland (sss = 86)
(+/- change from UK GE 2005)
SNP 32% (+14)
Con 24% (+8)
Lab 22% (-17)
LD 10% (-13)
Grn 6% (+5)
BNP 1% (+1)
UKIP 0 (n/c)
oth 5%
http://www.comres.co.uk/page190125039.aspx
Its been a long-long time since I had anything to do with Wales, but I wonder how long that’ll last. No party can afford to take anything or anybody for granted.
I can hardly wait.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/oct/26/soul-kirstie-allsopp-cost-tories
On the Comres poll, as Mike says, ‘not comfortable’ for the Tories not comfortable at all:Nomaj still in there and fighting.
9 That seat always surprises. Williams is fighting hard. There is a chance he could hold at the same time as a political asteroid strike in Montgomeryshire in the form of a Tory win.
William Hill - Newport West (incumbent: Paul Flynn MP - Lab)
Labour 4/5
Conservative 10/11
Liberal Democrat 33/1
Plaid Cymru 80/1
12. coldstone - “Nomaj still in there and fighting.”
Indeed!
William Hill - Hung Parliament?
No 2/7
Yes 5/2
If only Labour would give Gordon the boot! That’d make politics interesting again.
Oh dear! this’ll please a few on here.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6891343.ece
The King of the Jungle is back, and this time its war!
Throw in a few more months of grief and the sight of Gordon Brown’s ugly mug on telly during a GE campaign and the Tories will likely poll higher than Labour in Wales on the day. Remarkable.
Luvvly, luvvly, luvvly, luvvly, luvvly, luvvly, luvvly, luvvly, in all manner of luvvliness. (As that well known Welsh windbag was wont to say).
The era of Labour in power is drawing to a close and pretty much everyone is now looking towards what comes after. Some with joy, some with trepidation.
Byebye you nannying, incompetent , sleazy, nasty, bullying, arrogant, useless, lying, hypocritical, obnoxious scumbags. You will not be missed.
12 - As long as we get a month of wall-to-wall Gordy in the run up to the poll you’ll be in there fighting all right, with the Lib Dems.
I think that a map after the next GE will be very instructive for Wales.Labour will be pinned into a band 60 miles wide and 30 miles deep covering the old industrial areas in the South with some red in the North East.Most of their safe seats are in decline comparatively in population and boundary changes will eventually reduce their number of seats.They no longer represent the rural community or the urban middle class.
I note in the article it says Conservatves 12 seats not 10 as Mike S proposes - leaving only 8 between Plaid & Lib Dems. Doubt that personally as it seems to me both Plaid & Lib Dems have strong localised support (as does Labour in South Wales).
Skybet - Newport West
Labour 5/6
Conservative 5/6
Lib Dem 50/1
Plaid Cymru 66/1
Wales is similar to Scotland in that its not how many votes you get but where you get them.
If Labour holds firm in the valleys it gets wiped out elsewhere on these numbers.
15 - But we’re nearly in November. There just isn’t time for them to get it sorted in time for the election.
The Labour Party is sleepwalking to doom.
What they needed was a little Courage.
20. Yes see 4. It should be very cautious on the Lib Dems as outside those seats they will barely exist. In those seats though it is a very different story.
The EU Presidency, Tony Blair and the undemocratic left http://tinyurl.com/yhgacok
In the absence of Ave it, can I just say
LD = LOL
12. That reads like an article penned by someone who fully expects Labour to go down to defeat and desperately wants to blame the electorate for getting it wrong but can’t because of how it would look. Actually, the New Labour establishment’s disdain for the average man and woman and sense of their own entitlement far exceeds their Tory equivalents.
13. Punter - “Williams is fighting hard”
Err… who is Williams?
The announced candidates in Ynys Môn are:
Owen (Lab incumbent)
Rees (PC)
Jones (Con)
Punter, I know that you are practising to be a Welsh Mark Senior, but even you cannot possibly be predicting a Lib Dem victory in Ynys Môn?!?
There is only one Sage of Sussex. Accept no other Lib Dem rampers!
21 - I’m pretty sure when we last looked in depth at Wales we suggested both Newport seats could fall. One to each of the Libs and the Cons. That would be stunning.
On Wales, have any of our Valleys correspondents heard of any lefty independents getting publicity in seats like Torfaen to expand the Blaenau Gwent rebellion?
28 - Erm, he was talking about Ceredigion.
28 I was talking about Montgomeryshire and Ceredigion only.
This is excellent news for us. We have transformed into a national party, from a regional one in just one election cycle.
Most of the business on PC Seats has been conducted at 4.5 and represents my biggest single blunder in the whole campaign.
I am a Buyer back at 4.5 and will send a Christmas card to all takers.
Three new virginal looking markets on Betfair today.They concern the three minor Parties winning a Seat or not…Greens,UKIP,BNP.
For TimT re the chances of Gordon Brown leading Labour at next GE.
49 people responded and the average was 70% for hin remaining in office.
However 28 of the 49 thought there was an 80% or more chance for GB to stay.
plaid have reached a plateau of 5-6 seats icluding Llanelli. But there seems to be some movement now in the valleys, and if plaid can reach a tipping point there could be some spectacular shocks - first up peter hains neath seat!!
18. David Roe - “As long as we get a month of wall-to-wall Gordy in the run up to the poll you’ll be in there fighting all right, with the Lib Dems.”
Spot on David.
It is called ‘The Brown Epiphany‘.
Hey Stuart! Not the Messiah afterall.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6890067.ece
Just a, ‘Very naughty Boy’
16 Coldstone, your slot is at 9.30 am remember, you can post it all in one go and get all that loathing out at once.
What is the distribution of these votes? Wales will have some seats where the Labour vote is massive - similarly more rural seats where the Tories could win big. I’d have thought that a Welsh national pole like this is difficult to model who will win how many seats because there won’t be a national spread of those votes.
As the LibDems know its not how many votes you get nationally, its their concentration into constituencies.
On topic, predicting how seats will change in a four-party FPTP system is always difficult for any model. UNS becomes of less value the more parties are involved and the more diverse the composition of the seats. Still, the worst share since 1918 wouldn’t surprise me (unlike most of the rest of the country, Labour’s South Wales heartland held firmish in 1931). Wales has been trending away from Labour for some time now and their Euroelection result of barely more than 20% reemphasised that.
Much of the Welsh Labour heartland is of the WWC community that we’ve discussed so much in recent days. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the effect is much the same: a growing alienation among their voters between them and what was their party as it paid far more attention to the interests of its Guardian-reading wing.
34. penddu - “including Llanelli”
Ladbrokes - Llanelli (incumbent: Nia Griffith MP - Lab - maj: 7,234)
Labour 1/2
Plaid Cymru 6/4
Conservatives 50/1
Liberal Democrats 100/1
Shadsy, any chance of pricing up Neath?
34-much as I would love to see Hain out,I can’t see it happening.He is really dug in at Neath.BTW I loved Quentin Letts’ description of him as being “as caramel as a Werthers’ Original.”
36. coldstone
Nobody has ever claimed that William Wallace was a saint!!
In those days even Popes were very, very, very, very, very naughty boys!
Not sure what the impact for punters will be, but from corridor chats, I gather that once Legg and the Committee on Standards and Privileges have finished their work, a good deal more all-party resignations are to be expected. Those of you who fancy their chances should be polishing your CVs.
Update on Germany for those who don’t follow it: the CDU-FDP coalition has been agreed. The FDP had to accept defeat on labour market reform (the CDU refused to budge) but has got tax cuts without spending cuts in the short term (Keynes lives!) and lots of Ministries, including Westerwelle as Foreign Minister.
A note for Witan near the end of the last thread - I was indeed mistaken about the Centre for European Reform (mixed them up with Open Europe) and said so promptly when I’d looked it up.
Trivia time: did you know that the Scots surname ‘Wallace’ comes from the Norman ‘Le Waleis‘ (’the Welshman’).
How’s that for obscure tangential links?
44.I thought that Wallace was of Welsh stock somewhere along the line?
The 2 Mid Wales seats promise to have some of the most fascinating election battles. Brecon is a seat that specializes in surprise results, it went blue against the national trend in 1992 and was almost won back in 2001! It’s quite possible that the great Liberal Citadel of Montgomeryshire could turn blue while the more marginal Brecon stays yellow.
Good Morning PBers
Not totally surprised by this poll result as the June locals had indicated as much, if so, Brown can add another milestone to the list catastrophe under his watch, “worst result for Labour in Wales since 1918” chimes nicely with what may occur in Scotland methinks.
27 - David.
I very much hope that if we have a Cameron Govt it appoints people like Kirsty Allsop to its ranks.
Both for comedy value and longevity.
46 The same applies to Ceredigion staying yellow.
Dave supports Truss
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23761069-david-cameron-backs-woman-in-tory-affair.do
But a senior local Tory said: “She should fall on her sword for the sake of the association and the party.”
Ladbrokes - Montgomeryshire
Liberal Democrats 1/3
Conservatives 2/1
Labour 100/1
Plaid Cymru 100/1
#36, by coldstone October 27th, 2009 at 8:31 am
Hey Stuart! Not the Messiah afterall.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6890067.ece
Just a, ‘Very naughty Boy’
Sounds like MalcolmG to me.
Paddy Power - Broxtowe (incumbent: Nick Palmer MP - Lab)
Conservatives 1/6
Labour 7/2
Liberal Democrats 100/1
Paddy Power - Newport West
Labour 8/11
Conservatives 10/11
Liberal Democrats 40/1
Plaid Cymru 100/1
42
I’m reading Marc Morris’s ‘A great and Terrible King’ about Edward1. I think in the, ‘Nasty Stakes’ he leaves Wallace on the blocks.
Can’t understand it myself. If you are Welsh you logically should vote for a Welsh political party as opposed to a London party. Cannot imagine someone in London voting for a party based in Swansea - even if they had the chance!
Victor Chandler - Aberconwy (new seat; Conwy incumbent = Betty Williams MP - Lab - maj over Con: 3,081)
Conservative 3/10
Plaid Cymru 10/3
Labour 10/1
Lib Dems 33/1
OT
Yet another consequence of stupid, ill considered EU rules.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/6441485/Insurers-fear-calamity-over-EU-rules-on-bank-bonds.html
Actually, the New Labour establishment’s disdain for the average man and woman and sense of their own entitlement far exceeds their Tory equivalents.
Agreed. John Harris’s article is class war lite (targetting Cath Kidston and Kirstie rather than Bullingdon and Eton). Meanwhile the real class divide is shown in the opinion polls. Labour are rejected by their working class heartlands largely for being on the wrong side of the divide. They’re increasingly seen as privileged self servers who feather their own nests while ignoring the real needs of working people. All the manipulative references to footie in the world can’t cover that up.
Victor Chandler - Arfon (new seat - notionally ultra-marginal Lab)
Plaid Cymru 1/8
Labour 11/2
Conservatives 10/1
Lib Dems 100/1
Note: Labour have still not selected a candidate for either Arfon or Dundee West. It is almost unheard of for incumbent parties not to have selected a candidate for a vacant marginal seat this close to a GE. (Vacant safe seats often appoint PPC’s late in the day - but they can afford to!)
Victor Chandler - Ceredigion (incumbent: Mark Williams MP - Lib Dem - maj over Plaid: 219)
Plaid Cymru 4/6
Lib Dems 11/10
Conservative 20/1
Labour 100/1
Victor Chandler - Cardiff Central (incumbent: Jenny Willott MP - Lib Dem - maj over Lab: 5,593)
Lib Dems 2/9
Labour 7/2
Conservatives 10/1
Plaid Cymru 50/1
I’ve only been to Wales twice.
The first time was a school-trip when I was a teenager. The last time was when I had a business appointment in Bristol. [That city looked so much bigger on the map!]
My opinion of Wales: Belgium with even less character. Good luck to Plaid; won’t miss you and your country…!
Sorry to be late to the party, with the discussion having moved to channel 1! I was texted the headline figures earlier but the hours 7.30-9 for me usually entails ferrying offspring around.
This is obviously a very good poll for the Tories - back in the upper half of their old habitual 25-33% Welsh range for the first time in a decade and a half. Plaid a little disappointing, Lib Dems very disappointing and Labour horrific. For both Plaid and the Lib Dems the concentration of support will be crucial.
Daran Hill at WalesHome (also the best source for the minutiae of the Labour leadership contest if it doesn’t bore you rigid) has looked at some of the more detailed numbers.
Women are more likely than men to support the Tories. Labour’s best demographic is 35-54 (people for whom their campaigning on ‘evil thatcher’s tories’ may resonate more?).
Regional breakdowns too, with obvious caveats about sample sizes. Lib Dems very weak in north Wales (not much of a problem) but also only 11% in mid Wales (very big problem). Tories strong in mid Wales and in Cardiff. This is Daran’s take - I haven’t seen the breakdown figures yet.
8% for others. Roughly what I’d expect.
Wales is swinging to Cam!
59 - Polly.
The argument against Allsopp is that she is a shameless property ramper.
If this is the depth you want from a Tory Govt then Dave is making a mistake.
But the current situation is hard on first-time buyers who can’t borrow. I would like all would-be first-time buyers lined up on an imaginary starting line and the second it becomes easier to borrow while prices are still down I will fire an imaginary starting pistol,’ she says, throwing up one hand like a gun while still managing to control her BlackBerry with the other.
‘I was indeed mistaken about the Centre for European Reform (mixed them up with Open Europe) and said so promptly when I’d looked it up.’
Yes Nick but the real question is - why did you shoot your mouth off about it in the first place?
re 66. how does she compare with your Mr McNulty Tim?
59 I think the interesting point here is that the increasing “professionalism” of the political classes is to the long-term detriment of Labour, because it drives a wedge between Labour’s base and Labour’s elected representatives. I am reminded of GW Bush’s quite good joke at a fundraising dinner when he said “they call you the elite, I call you my base” - successful politicians must reach beyond their base in a way Bush and Brown never succeeded in doing, but above all they must retain and be seen to represent their base.
Labour’s base has clearly been eroded. The causes are many and complex and unquestionably include the recession/rising unemployment, immigration policy and the 10p tax debacle. But I think equally as significant has been Labour’s embrace of the “political class” - most of their PPCs and newer MPs are aspirant “middle class” professionals. They are no longer “one of us” (think estate dwelling, factory working Lab supporters).
The increasing professionalism has not hurt the Tories nearly as much (because their elected representatives have long been drawn from the professional classes and military) or the Lib Dems (because Lib Dem supporters are more liberal about class).
60.Why haven’t Labour moved yet to get someone selected for that Dundee seat, it seems incredible?
63
People forget, that Wales isn’t just the Valleys and Cardiff. Central Wales is superb, great walking and running: did the Welsh Castles relay a couple of times.
The view from Harlech Castle one of the great views of Europe.
http://www.harlech.com/
68 - Apples and Oranges there Mike.
But she seems almost amateurish c.w. Property Ladder’s Eleanor Laing
re 64. I’ve added a link to your PB2 piece on the main header.
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2009/10/shooting-in-dark-polling-and-predicting.html
@66:
I’m not sure I understand what the problem is with being a shameless property ramper.
Encouraging more people to buy their own homes is a splendid idea.
66. The problem for Labour re Allsop is that she is more likeable with the general public (outside the organic latte bars of Islington) than the entire cabinet combined. Nor has she ripped anyone off on expenses or house flipping. Infact her only crime is to host a show which semi-promotes moving house - sometimes at a profit - Alistair Darling was obviously a fan - he flipped his house and filled his boots many times over.
Can’t get at Dave, can’t get at GO, can’t get at Hague - so go for Allsop.
Watch out Conhome tea lady come the GE - they’ll be after you…
73. I’ll probably take some time to update that with the data barrange that’s now arriving.
One other thing worth mentioning is Rhodri Morgan’s +44 approval rating. Astonishing.
44 - the Scottish kings and the clans come from a Norman heritage anyway.
Indeed Scotland has been subservient to England since 1072.
69.Flockers, a very perceptive post.
Brown also attempted to portray himself as the real deal when it came to being able to retain and represent the Labour base. But in fact he is now seen as someone who took them for granted and manipulated them in quite a dishonest manner.
33 URW Thanks.
74 - Not when they’re overpriced
66. Tim I’ve worked in left wing circles all my life. I can assure you when it comes to leftist careerists, you couldn’t find a more rampant set of property ‘rampers’ (as you put it). They really don’t put their money where their mouths are. Don’t you know why workers are angry with Labour?
@76:
Was his approval that high before he announced his intention to retire?
What’s interesting is that it could imply a residual part of the Labour vote is personal to Morgan, and might soon evaporate.
80. tim - are you suggesting the state should set property prices to protect the public from themselves ?
66 - I imagine you as the back seat passenger in a car which, driven by a drunkard, has torn down the High Street at 80mph, sped through two red lights, scraped a dozen or so cars, knocked over a little old lady on a zebra crossing and then rammed into the local branch of the Co-op.
And as the police officer asks your driver to step out of the car you become hysterical because on the other side of the road there is a Jaguar which has overstayed its time on the parking meter.
@80:
Loathe as I am to get into a lecture about basic economics with you, it’s not possible for an asset to be “overpriced”. A thing’s value is that which somebody is prepared to pay for it, no more, no less.
81 - My single biggest criticism of the Labour Govt is on housing.
It is key in so many fields yet has generally a disaster for thirty years in this country.
Vaughan Roderick at the BBC is now going into stat overload. Yn Gymraeg only, so brief translated highlights.
Carwyn Jones well in the lead on opinions of the 3 Labour contenders (although name recognition scores would be interesting), but that includes being more popular with Plaid supporters than Labour ones.
Ieuan Wyn Jones has a +8 rating, Kirsty Williams -2 and Nick Bourne -12.
Assembly voting intention - Lab 32, Con 25, PC 24, LD 12.
Trust in politicians - 52% in Assembly Members, 19% in MPs!
“The argument against Allsopp is that she is a shameless property ramper.” — go and stick your head down the toilet, tim.
Property boom was nothing to do with Allsop - it had everything to do with Browns incompetent management of the economy and the pensions industry.
Allsops programmes were ‘popular’ which is more than can be said for Brown. She is knowledgeable about something - which is more than can be said about Brown. She is normal - which is more than can be said about Brown.
Funny how T I M finds time during half term to keep on posting, must have outsourced the days out with the kids.
83 - No I’m suggesting the state has a role to play in setting planning laws and allowing local councils to build which cater for housing needs, and that it has abdicated that responsibility for thirty years.
@86:
Bigger than Gordon? Say it ain’t so, tim!
82. The lack of previous polling means we have to guess a bit. But previous polls have shown Rhodri’s name recognition to be infinitely higher than other Welsh politicians, so the approval rating may be partly a function of that.
Scary for Labour, that, isn’t it, as he’s shuffling off the stage.
@90:
The failure of this country to build affordable housing for its citizens is a massive, unforgivable one.
89 - Tim has found another woman to verbally abuse on the most tenuous of grounds.
It’s half-term, what’s a boy to do when its raining outside?
74.Martin, Allsop captures the essence of aspiration. Now a dirty word along with boom and bust now the economy has gone belly up under Brown’s stewardship.
95 - The same rampers were around during the Lawson Housing Boom.
Its hardly a new thing.
81 - My single biggest criticism of the Labour Govt is on housing.
It is key in so many fields yet has generally a disaster for thirty years in this country.
by tim October 27th, 2009 at 9:29 am
Being compelled to live in your Mother spare bedroom will do that to a man.
93. Agreed.
63 Fluffy Thoughts. You are taking the p*ss with the inference that Bristol is in Wales, aren’t you?
Must agree with tim about Allslop. Appalling woman, and an exemplar of an appalling attitude, that it is not high house prices which are bad for first time buyers, but the lack of easy borrowing. (Er, remind me where too-easy credit got us Kirstie love?)
She wants constantly rising house prices, and refuses to accept that they might have risen too high. And she calls her children fantastically stupid names. I can’t stand her and the too-many people like her, and if the tories make her a peer I will not vote for them.
We cannot base our entire economy on borrowing noney against ever-rising house prices. This is not real economic growth, it is a bubble, it does not count. You can’t borrow yourself rich.
93. Perhaps we have too many citizens, living in the wrong place, unable to move because of taxes that prohibit flexibility of labour e.g. stamp duty and fuel taxes.
Or it could all be the fault of Location, Location, Location.
91 - Yes, but Labour policy on the housing market can be blamed more on Gordon than anyone else. So happily Tim is still criticising Gordon.
Tim.
As your confusion over Tier 1 capital reserves, lending ratios and cash bonuses showed yesterday, you’re not that good at economics. Stick to health scares where you seem to know something.
59 “John Harris’s article is class war lite”
Methinks it might be a bit more freudian than that.
That Harris article is poor. Why is this “a most chilling quote”?
“Rather than worry about Rupert Murdoch owning another TV channel, what we should recognise is that he has probably done more to create variety and choice in British TV than any other single person.”
The Telegraph agreed with Brown in 2004..
“Brown is right: the housing boom will not turn to bust”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3605321/Brown-is-right-the-housing-boom-will-not-turn-to-bust.html
Morning all and firstly thanks for making the LibDem “meltdown” in the south West thread so interesting last night. I am glad I got you all discussing it seriously and given that Mark Senior “rubbished” my opinion I guess I mustn’t be far from the mark with my guesswork.
Delighted with the Welsh poll which seems to be showing the Celtic Tories are coming back. I haven’t been to Wales nearly often enough but my parents used to enjoy their holidays at Lloyd George’s childhood home which was owned by friends of the family in the 1970s.
I said the other day that for David Cameron the “perfect” election result from the Celtic teams would be 20 seats between Wales and Scotland. 15 seems more likely but 20 is not looking impossible.
You most rubbish the prospects of the Scottish Tories at the GE but here we have the latest in a long line of polls putting the Scottish Tories at 20% or better, last night it being 24%. It was also the third poll in 6 months putting us ahead of Labour in Scotland. I do not sadly think we will out poll Labour in Scotland at the GE but as with the LibDems, our vote is far more polarised and if we do get in the 20-25% range then David Cameron might just get his 20 seats from Wales and Scotland.
Surely Ms Allsop will be advocating knocking through between the Commons and the Lords to create a new Open Plan government?
With a kitchen diner, as this is the “heart of the home”. NO IT’S NOT - IT’S WHERE YOU COOK YOUR DINNER!!!
(Glad to get that out of my system!)
85 Martin Coxall. Agree in principle on specific transactions. But there are unsustainable market prices where market valuations rise in bubbles to levels where prices have no relation to inherent value or wages. Witness black tulips, south sea bubbles, housing bubbles, etc.
104. He doesn’t mention Phil Spencer for some reason - is it because he’s a man, not an overt Tory or not from landed stock ?
Surely Labour suppoters have got to realise that if the columnists on their side are reduced to attacking Kirsty Allsop, they are facing oblivion?
Entirely OT:
Thinking of asking for an eBook reader for Christmas. Has anybody here used one and can recommend/disrecommend one?
In the absence of intel, I’ll just go for the international Amazon Kindle.
97 “Being compelled to live in your Mother spare bedroom will do that to a man.”
Or Jacqui Smith’s sisters…
@109:
I think it’d be hard to construct a case that the housing bubble was Kirsty’s fault that would stand up in a court of law, mind.
@111:
Nobody has suggested making Phil Spencer a working peer for the Tories, AFAIK.
66 Tim clearly the Hon. Kirsty Allsop has been taking lessons from Cherie Booth QC who is the biggeset property ramper in the UK at present. Sadly the ex colliery managers house in Sedgefield which was good enough during her husband’s career is no longer good enough for Baroness Social Climber and her portfolio of £1m+ houses so she is selling it lest anything ever think she was the daughter of a working class alcoholic jobbing actor whose most memorable role was as the son-in-law of the “TV godfather” of the BNP.
113, SeanT and others posted quite a bit about them here a few months ago (considered getting my dad one for his birthday but decided against it). Also, there are some cool websites like Project Gutenberg[sp] which offer classic books for free.
71. “The view from Harlech Castle one of the great views of Europe”
Surely ‘in’ rather than ‘of’?
85 Martin Coxall
Too many people were suckered in by thinking that if a bank/BS lent them X, then they could by definition afford to pay X back. Fine at low interest rates, fine at low unemployment. But the housing market from ~2000-2007 was pretty close to a classic Ponzi scheme, where even the lenders were parcelling up the mortgages and passing them on thinking the music would never stop, prices “only ever go up”.
Well the music did stop, and here we are. And STILL governments the world over think that the key is to get house prices rising again, to get lending going again at silly levels.
Policymakers made the mistake of thinking that banks would not in general lend money to people who had a too-high risk of not paying it back. However securitisation of mortgages and the bonus culture for attracting more debt led to over-zealous lending to all and sundry, to lax standards of credit-checking, to all sorts of other shocking practices and liar loans where the marginal risk to the individual bank of each individual loan granted was small thanks to securitisation, but the overall global systemic risk built up and up and UP.
The wholesale mortgage market and securitisation are all but gone now, yet the mania for higher house prices has not, so cash buyers, foreign buyers, even the bank of mum and dad is still, insanely, driving the market upwards even on historically low volumes and with historically high requirements for mortgage deposits. It is still a Ponzi scheme driven by seemingly unshakebale public sentiment to invest in properdee (blame Ms Allsop et al again), but a small rise in interest rates and a further fall in the number of first time buyers will mean it will all come crashing down again.
Brown said in 1997 “i will not allow house prices to get out of control”
Fail.
As tim says, perhaps the single biggest failure of this government. And there’s no easy way out.
tim’s new slogan
Tough on women, tough on the causes of women.
“I think it’d be hard to construct a case that the housing bubble was Kirsty’s fault that would stand up in a court of law, mind.”
It’s easy. She’s a Tory. The Tories are always at fault. Ergo, it’s her fault.
29. ‘have any of our Valleys correspondents heard of any lefty independents getting publicity in seats like Torfaen to expand the Blaenau Gwent rebellion?’
Yes, trouble is there’s more than 1 in Torfaen.
People’s Voice have picked the former Mirror scribe Paul Starling, who used to be a nauseating New Labour apologist. There’s also the councillor Fred Wildgust standing, whose judging by his website sees himself as a one-man crusade for democracy and justice…
Torfaen will stay red. This time.
118. “in” but not “run by”
112 Martin Coxall again
I was thinking of getting one too - someone at work who sadly has a history of talking b0ll0x said that after a certain age books are free of copyright and can be downloaded for free - can this be true? If so it sounds like a steal
Meurig - what a fantastic name ‘Fred Wildgust’
@124:
Yes: in the UK it’s 70 years after the death of the author. See Project Gutenberg for more:
http://www.gutenberg.org/wiki/Main_Page
From what I understood of Location et al was that PhilnKirstie were presented with a budget and went to see what was affordable for that, trying to find bargains where they could. How that ramps up prices I’m not sure.
@125:
It has a Dickensian resonance to it, does it not?
I’m still pinching myself that the Tories are doing so well in Wales. The Euros were amazing, but this seems to show that it wasn’t a blip.
On Scottish Tories - I again, assumed they were virtually extinct and wouldn’t come back - the political plates are moving.
110. Quite. Kirsty Allsop word association for a certain type of bloke would boil down to “posh” and “pillows”. Methinks Harris was supposed to write something about Toffs and got distracted.
128 Wilfred Wildgust just needs a crook and a flock of sheep
104 - Good point. I noticed that Phil, with his regular bloke image, comes in for much less flak than Kirsty, even tho he too is tainted with ‘ramping’ the property market, according to Tim et al. But as we have amply seen demonstrated on this thread, Kirsty allows men on the left to vent a bit of old fashioned sexism.
I am not surprised at Rhodri Morgan’s popularity in Wales. As a non-Welshman, I think he is everything likeable in an old fashioned middle of the road Labour politician. The exact oppostion of Alun Michael.
I am sure the people of Wales felt comfortable electing a man who so clearly was no poodle or placed man of Tony Blair. He came from the same mould as the late Donald Dewar, who had he lived would have beena great first First Minister of Scotland because he put Scotland first and the Labour party second and so it should be.
On topic, if we see swingback anywhere, I can imagine it happening in Wales. In a country that has a long history of voting Labour, putting an X in the Tory box at the general election might be a step too far for some.
130 That Labour made up Sir Alan says it all really - and now their friends in the Guardian use Allsop
wibbler, ukpaul, tim B, anyone interested in US healthcare debate. Another interesting piece on Reid’s difficulties ahead and the position of doctors on the debate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/10/27/lessons_for_the_white_house_from_the_doctor_fix_debacle_98884.html
132 - See 115
The SW Lib Dems will have a good time with Allsopp
http://www.thisisnorthdevon.co.uk/news/Don-t-sell-house-second-home-says-Kirstie-owns/article-864868-detail/article.html
133 Seconded - Morgan is a class act from over here. His type comes along once in a generation.
Was never keen on Dewar myself - too dry - always looked like he had a mouth ulcer.
134 I think you are right, but given the relative sizes of Wales and the UK even a pretty significant swingback will hardly register on a national scale.
139 - Dewar was a great man.
139 - If all politicians were like Donald Dewar, we wouldn’t ever complain about their poor quality. He was one of the best men ever to sit in a Labour cabinet.
Washington Post poll showing McDonnell 55 Creeds 44 in the Virginia gubernatorial race. WP leans Democrat, so expect Rasmussen to show an even bigger gap. This one is over, unless McDonnell has a ‘maccaca’ moment.
Good Morning Welsh Poll Watching Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. Easterross @ 116. My dear fellow that’s an uncommonly spite filled diatribe. Me thinks you’ve stumbled out of bed on the wrong side, stubbed a big toe very badly and crashed and smashed the bathroom mirror. Chill time is the order of the day.
Just watched Newsnight - Bryant was a total berk. The slinging of random insults [and not even funny ones] and over-talking were quite appalling.
Didn’t he used to be a vicar? Hadn’t seen the Tory chappy Francois before - thought he was very good/unruffled/good humoured.
Why on Earth did they put up Et Tu Bryant? It was obvious that he’d look really stupid supporting Blair for EU President. And accusing the Tories for being ‘unpatriotic’ for not supporting him - good grief.
142 It is well recorded that he was one of my political heroes. It got me into big trouble with CCO Scotland but that never bothered me much nor the 100+ Young Conservatives to came to listen to him when I invited him to speak at a Young Conservative meeting in 1978, shortly after he won the Garscadden by-election. Sir George Young has always struck me as being the same sort of “bookish” parliamentarian, quiet, studious and gifted with no thought for fashion or fads.
44. Stuart, that’s an absolute gem, thank you.
When I want to wind up a Scot, I usually give them this little riff about how tartans were invented by the English.
When the English army started raising Scots units, it occurred to someone that a nice uniform might be an aid to recruitment. So an English military tailor in Piccadilly or the Strand was told to concoct a version of the standard infantry uniform that featured ‘authentically’ Scottish touches: a feather bonnet (WTF??), sporran, and of course the kilt. Uniforms still had to be uniform, so individual regiments were required to have the same kilt design and it was usually a unique regimental distinction. Because recruitment was done by region, surnames came to be associated with units, and thence with particular tartans.
It was never the case that units adopted an existing local clan tartan. For one thing there weren’t any standard tartans and for another the tartans familiar today are all executed in the eighteenth century British Army colour palette. So the Black Watch (or ‘Government’ sett, as it is properly known) is Rifle Green over Garter Blue. The Sutherland Highlanders’ sett was also ‘Government’ with a yellow overstripe to match their regimental facing colour. Royal Stewart is British Scarlet, plus Rifle Green, plus Garter Blue.
And so on.
So ‘Scottish’ or ‘clan’ tartans are about as authentically Scottish as bratwurst, borshcht or Mom’s apple pie. And so, it appears, was William Wallace’s ancestry.
Thank you so much, I cannot wait to wind up a Scotsman with this!!
145 - Yes, he used to be an Anglican Vicar.
144 Jack, you know the mind of a Highland Scot. If Mrs Blair showed the humility of someone from her background who has done tremendously well in her profession through education and hard work, she would be an admirable person. However she just behaves like a money grabbing sh1t with no respect for tradition (except when it suits her) and I will probably never forgive her for daring to yawn when a guest of HM at the Braemar Gathering. Bad bad form. In 1745 you would have put her in the stocks and pelted her with raw eggs before making her run round the village 5 times bare breasted!
146 George Young is an excellent role model - still spitting tacks that he didn’t get the Speakership.
I’d like to see a lot more like him from across the political spectrum. It’d bring a lot more dignity to the House.
Now Keith Vaz on the other hand…
148 - Ahh, his defrocking would account for the photo of him in his underwear then?
52, Fluffy , Wha’s Like Us, thank you for comparing me to one of our most famous hero’s, hopefully you English will not do the same to me as you did to him.
Interesting motion on the COmmons order paper for the end of business tonight:
RULE 56 (1) OF THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RULES
[No debate]
Secretary Jim Murphy
That, in accordance with rule 56 (1) of the Parliamentary Election Rules contained in Schedule 1 to the Representation of the People Act 1983, the sealed packets containing the completed corresponding number lists forwarded to the sheriff clerk at Kirkcaldy following the Glenrothes by-election on 6 November 2008 (1) shall not be destroyed by the sheriff clerk other than as provided for in the protocol agreed among the Secretary of State for Scotland, the electoral registration officer for Fife, the returning officer for the Glenrothes parliamentary constituency and the sheriff clerk for the Kirkcaldy sheriff court district and dated 16 and 19 October 2009 (Cm 7729); (2) may be delivered by that sheriff clerk to that returning officer; and (3) may be opened by that returning officer in order that a substitute marked copy of the register of electors may be made available for public inspection, all in accordance with and subject to the conditions specified in that protocol.
To be decided without debate (Standing Order No. 118(6) and Order of 20 October).
I see that Labour’s guilty-until-proven-innocent database of innuendo, tittle-tattle and spite is spreading its tentacles even further:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/6441797/Paedophile-checks-even-for-those-not-working-with-children.html
Still, I suppose there’s a certain grim pride for Labour in cementing their reputation as the most authoritarian government since Cromwell.
87. Meurig - Assembly voting intention - Lab 32, Con 25, PC 24, LD 12.
Trust in politicians - 52% in Assembly Members, 19% in MPs
Now, THAT is very, very thought provoking indeed!
Gordon Brown must be even more unpopular in Wales than he is in England.
147 and 142 What is the little known connection between Robert the Bruce and Sir William Wallace through two marriages?
156. I don’t know. Inheritance tax?
145, may take a look myself.
154 Let’s hope that the Tories stop this in its tracks. It’s appalling - next I’ll need to be CRBd to show kittens to children.
“Two-thirds of voters back David Cameron’s call for the size of the state to be slimmed down, a ComRes survey for The Independent discloses today… Sixty-seven per cent said they agreed with the Tory leader that “the Government has grown too big and needs a major overhaul to make it smaller”. Just 28 per cent disagreed, with his call for a smaller state supported across the social spectrum. Andrew Hawkins, the chief executive of ComRes, said: “The Conservatives are on to a winner with this campaign line.” - The Independent
Interesting.
156 - You mean they had TWO civil partnerships
154. I will personally boycott any company that tries to win business in this way and will encourage others to do the same.
I guess some people on the left, will never forgive Blair for Iraq will they?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/theguardian/cartoon/2009/oct/26/steve-bell-tony-blair-cartoon
149 Easterross.
…. perhaps only once round my estate boob al fresco !!
143 John R. 1603 - Scotland Gain England.
112. Martin, SeanT waxed lyrical about it some time ago, probably around 6 months ago I reckon.
158, odd, there’s the link but no viewing window appears. Has Ms. Wark’s fashion calamity broken the iPlayer?
87. meurig - Nick Bourne -12
Ouch!!
129 It’s not so strange; in fact, it’s been a long time coming. Labour’s high-water mark in Wales was 1966, when very briefly, they completed their capture of rural Wales by taking Cardigan from the Liberals. However, their dominance of rural Wales was never as secure as their control over the valleys.
Since then, there’s been a gradual shift away from Labour in Wales. The Conservatives had a very good run from 1970-1983, outperforming the rest of the UK, and winning 14 seats in 1983. Labour recovered between 1987 and 1997, but Wales started to shift away from them again in 2001. Although the Conservatives gained no seats that year, they enjoyed good results in several seats. Labour lost 5 seats in 2005, and held several others narrowly. Now, they’ve reached a tipping point, at which they’ll lose a lot of seats.
I wonder how high the Welsh Tories would be with a better leader than Nick Bourne?
163 Who’s the one on the right? Rhondri Morgan/Radovan Karadzic?
169 - Odd, isn’t it? Annabel Goldie is widely praised as a capable leader, yet the Tories in Scotland are nowhere. Meanwhile, Nick Bourne gets widely criticised and the Tories are riding high in the polls. It almost makes you wonder whether conventional assessments are upside down.
Mr Dancer - http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00nn6rg/Newsnight_26_10_2009/
147. John, Think you need to get a life.
172, aye, that’s what I was looking at, but the window for viewing the video hasn’t appeared. Not had an issue with it before.
149. Easterross, Letting your mind run away there, you got a secret fetish for Cherie.
153-So reading into that motion it looks as though the marked register has been located.
Or am i reading that one wrongly?
168 Sean Fear - thanks for the info. Just shows the difference between political mythology and reality.
147.
If you read “the mummies of urumchi” by elizabeth wayland barber and look at the pictures you will see that tartan plaids which you could wear to the Northern Meeting without anyone raising an eyebrow have been found in NW China and dated to 1000 BC ish. Their owners are definitely Celts by dna evidence. It seems to me that the most parsimonious explanation for this is inheritance from a common source. I mean, yes, the government sett and the allocation of tartans to clans may all be bogus, but what gave them the idea to start faking tartans unless tartans alrady existed?
112, 117, etc: Martin - Re Readers: both SeanT and stjohn posted about their Sony models and appeared very impressed. Sean made the point that you could access hundreds of newspapers from around the world for free.
Amazon’s “Kindle” model was not then out in the UK, but is now as posters to this site know only too well!
Personally, I like the physical feel of a book. Anyway, judging from the fact that my bedtime read crashes to the floor at least twice a week when I fall asleep, a reader in this home would have a like expectancy of approx 3 days.
174 - Just tried it and it worked - Kirsty was in a very unflattering muddy brown and black.
I think she gets dressed in the dark.
If this poll was replicated at a GE, would Lembit be safe?
179 Last line: “like” = life
If the marked register has been located and shows a huge upsurge in postal votes ,do you think more pressure may be heaped upon the PM.
180, must be a problem at my end then. Oh well. Might try youtube, but doubtful it’ll be on yet.
173. malcolmG.
So I infer that John’s story is essentially true, then.
147 - Jon C - fascinating, thank you.
171 Yet, Bourne gets a rating of minus 12, so clearly he is not highly thought of by Welsh voters. It doesn’t affect the national voting intention, but may have an impact on assembly voting intentions, where the Conservative vote share is 6% less.
164 Jack do you know the answer to my question?
Clearly your estate is sufficiently substantial that the poor woman would get deep blue boobs running round 5 times. With mine she would just upset the local wildlife.
By the way for those of you who have been asking after him, a former resident of this parish whose initials are MD and has a keen interest in the fate of the incumbent right honourable member for Sheffield Hallam sends his regards.
181 - Is he bovvered?
@179:
To be honest, since the Kindle’s being advertised on this site, by getting one I am in some small way contributing to PBC’s wellbeing.
So I think I’ll ask for the Kindle.
77. The Scottish kings in fact submitted to the Anglo-Saxon kings of England somewhat before 1072.
re 181 - the notional 2005 result in Lembit’s seat is -
Liberal Democrat: 15507 (50.3%)
Conservative: 8487 (27.5%)
Labour: 3778 (12.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2144 (6.9%)
Other: 936 (3%)
Majority: 7020 (22.8%)
He also has a highish level of name recognition which might or might not be an advantage.
192 - Thanks for that Mike. On those figures, I reckon he’d be safe.
190 Make sure you buy this
http://www.thedeathofbunnymunro.com/audiobook.html
188 Easterross - Martin made a brief appearance on PB last week (assuming it was indeed him) and then disappeared.
Lembit will be safe.
Just thinking back to Newsnight - and Francois’ response to the referendum question.
He was very *twinkly* about it - almost as if he knew he had a corker up his sleeve. I noticed this the other day when I saw another senior Tory talking about it.
Hmm.
The front page of today’s Hootsmon makes for interesting reading coldstone (and other William Wallace and Gordon Brown fans):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_SRTBaafRZfw/SuX31qoDaUI/AAAAAAAACKI/dS5oH7bixQ0/s1600-h/Hootsmon+2parody.1.jpg
178. Oh yes. Tartans in general already existed, certainly. But the standard named designs seen today, associated with ‘clans’ and presumed to be ancestrally Scottish by their wearers, all originated in England, as an English ploy to entice Scottish sepoys.
The essence and value of the wind-up lies in drawing this fact to Scots’ attention.
They look stunned, then confused, then go into denial, while usually muttering that this is “f***in’ bo11ocks”. Which, alas, they know it’s not.
It works best of all on Scots Nits.
Thanks to Stuart, while they’re still reeling from this one I can now stick them onto the canvas by adding “By the way, did you know William Wallace was Welsh?”
199 All I can say is thank God that Mel Gibson makes films in Aramaic these days
Today I’m starting PLANK - Peter Lilley Assimilating North Korea award.
This coveted prize is given to the politician who in their constituency newsletter makes the most photographic appearances in the finest tradition of the cult of the original “Dear leader”
The latest four page edition of “Peter Lilley’s Westminster Report” stacks up a wonderous sixteen colour snaps of Harpenden’s Dear Leader.
A record !! …. unless you know better !!
@197:
Dan Hannan was the same way at YBF. Everybody seems to know what the post-Lisbon strategy is, everybody seems to think it’s a winner, but nobody’s telling what it is.
The teases.
197, now you’re just teasing me
Deselection meeting ‘over affair’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/8327362.stm
200. There’s something quite appropriate about one of the promoters of the Nat version of history being a raving loon, though.
203, let’s invade France!
Elections watchdog calls for ‘convener’ to oversee polls
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Elections-watchdog-calls-for-39convener39.5768384.jp
199 Then of course there are the basically Norman Kings, the Balliols, the de Bruis, the FitzAlan/FitzWalters who became the Stewart/Stuarts.
Granted this “lady” sounds a bit like Jan Moir, but does anyone think this is a staggering waste of police resources
Pensioner questioned by police after complaining about gay pride march
Pauline Howe, a 67-year-old grandmother, was questioned by police after council officials decided that her complaint about a gay pride march amounted to a “hate incident”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/religion/6424895/Pensioner-questioned-by-police-after-complaining-about-gay-pride-march.html
202 Martin C - I am sure that they do have a corker (or what they think is a corker) up their sleeves. My reasoning is simple: if they didn’t, they would be preparing the ground with anodyne messages about ‘new situation will exist.. consultation.. bringing forward proposals.. blah blah…’.
The silence is very noticeable, and I think significant. After all, they know perfectly well that every political journalist in the land will be pressing them within minutes of the last signature.
FAO Stuart Dickson.
Did you see my post last night?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/10/26/the-blues-move-to-a-13-point-lead-with-comres/#comment-1283520
Well, it’s simply that the sample size is too small to be meaningful.
The MoE range for the Scottish subsample is:
SNP 19-45
Con 13-35
Lab 11-33
LD 2-18
And that assumes the subsample is itself demographically balanced, which it probably isn’t.
206
How about Cameron saying they would offer a referendum on leaving the EU and joining EFTA instead
209, sounds ridiculous.
Incidentally, gay pride marches just seem moronic to me. Why do people feel proud of something they’ve done nothing to achieve? I very much like being British, but I don’t feel proud of it because I was born British, I didn’t pass an entrance exam in some sort of pre-life categorisation programme.
206.Morris, but we do that every summer already, where can we got that is new?
206/212 - Perhaps we could do a swap with the EU. Scotland and Northern Ireland in exchange for Spain or Portugal.
213. If you organised a ‘British pride’ march you might well also find yourself being arrested for creating a ‘hate incident’.
@210:
Dan says that William Hague has the press release sitting on his desk ready to be sent to the press within the hour of Vaclav Klaus crumbling.
I hope it’s worth all this Eurosceptic ramping.
209 TSE - A textbook example of why we need elected police commissioners, in order to ensure the priorities of the police are in tune with those of the public.
201 Jack W
Brilliant, the only picture he wasn’t in was the Buncfield Depot fire and even there I am sure that if you look very closely …
@213:
The purpose of gay pride marches originally- reminding the world that us poofs exist, and we aren’t going away no matter how many ranty old mental grandmothers try to pin the fall of man onto us.
Nowadays, with all the key battles in the UK effectively won, they’re just an excuse for a piss up.
214, I don’t. I’ve never been to France. Some nonsense about “longbows not being allowed on planes”. Pfff!
215, blehus. I’d rather have the Celts. That said, a union with the Czech Republic….
216, well, quite. Lenny Henry was banging on about ‘his people’ being successful regarding Lewis Hamilton and Barack Obama on a Live At the Apollo. Several points. 1: they’re half-white. 2: they aren’t ‘your people’ unless you’re an American citizen as well. 3: it’s pathetic identity politics. I like Schumacher because he was a great racing driver, not because we’re both of Saxon stock.
217 I’d read that they have prepared the legislation so can get straight out of the blocks if they win.
After some of the surprises we’ve had recently - I’d rule nothing out.
If the Czechs crumble this week…*rubs hands in anticipation*
221, as a miserly ascetic teetotaller, not really sure Britons need another excuse to get drunk. It’s not as if we’re not drinking enough.
221 You seriously have never been to France?
213 Perhaps they would have seemed less ‘moronic’ when being gay was something you were told you should be ashamed of. We’re fortunate in Britain that some progress has been made. Just imagine the guts it takes for the 500 people who turned out for Delhi’s first Pride last year to be seen in public. Many wore masks for fear of violent attack.
204 - That story is now ancient history and everyone involved has since moved on. I am not a Tory by any means, but know Liz vaguely and am sure she would be an excellent MP. The local association would be fools to tear themselves apart over a non-issue about mistakes people made in the (fairly distant) past.
199 John that is not entirely correct. It is true viz-a-viz the army and regimental tartans. However many of the clan tartans came about by a different route.
When Sir Walter Scott announced his Brigadoon bunfight in 1822 in honour of George IV’s visit to Scotland, many of the great aristos on both sides of the border who held Scottish titles suddenly thought it would be a great wheeze to dress like Fran and Anna in the king’s honour.
This sent many of them scurrying into the basements of their Scottish castles on their next visit north to dust down the old portraits of their assorted ancestors in the hope that some might show them wearing some sort of tartan.
In the case of my maternal relatives, there was some luck in that a portrait of Kenneth 3rd Lord Duffus made famous by its use on Glenfiddich whisky tins and others shouwed him resplendent in full kilt and regalia and as he was exiled in 1715, we know the portrait predates the 1715 Rising. However those not fortunate enough to find something on a portrait just made it up.
221 - I’ve never forgiven Schumacher for shunting Damon Hill off in 1994 and denying him the title. To me, Schumacher, will always be that Cheating German Shunt.
218. I can’t imagine the ACPO candidates doing very well in such contests
225, I agree. But, as you said, times change.
224, seriously. I’ve been to China though.
188 Easterross. A tad stumped. The ancestry of Wallace is somewhat disputed. Good question !!
219 JonathanD. Lilley is just behind the middle tree close to one of his election posters !!
Laters ………
Think the Pissed Off party will have encouragingly good results in Wales in 2010. Politicians, being a greedy bunch, might point to ‘good’ results for their parties, but we all know how ordinary folks hate them all, and their cheerleaders and wannabies.
221 Speaking of F1, I always thought David Coulthard looked like some weird Barbie bloke - he makes Sophie Ellis Bextor look normal.
Trivia point - apparently her nickname at school was Rhomboid Head - now that’s seriously intellectual name calling
229, oh, Schumacher was an expert cheater. He had a spectacular (though unsuccessful) cheating effort at I think the Monaco Grand Prix in 2006, last season, when he effectively parked his car at a tight corner, feigning a spin, to try and stop anyone beating his time.
171. antifrank - “Odd, isn’t it? Annabel Goldie is widely praised as a capable leader, yet the Tories in Scotland are nowhere. Meanwhile, Nick Bourne gets widely criticised and the Tories are riding high in the polls. It almost makes you wonder whether conventional assessments are upside down.”
In fairness to Annabel, the Scottish Tories have a far bigger mountain to climb than the Welsh ones.
Annabel is good, but she is not great. She is flattered by the barren, ugly landscape that surrounds her. Their problem is that she has an appallingly weak team of MSPs behind her. There is just no depth in the Scottish Tory ranks.
If Annabel disappoints, who on earth replaces her? Murdo Fraser - perpetual student politician (à la Jim Murphy/Gordon Brown)? Lord preserve us…
230 Blimey. You should go! Not sure you can understand/appreciate England til you’ve been to France. Just looking at Dover from Calais gives you a great perspective.
233, he is Captain Squarejaw. Quite fun watching him, Eddie Jordan and Jake Humphrys[sp]. Halfway between good chemistry and potential for imminent violence
Generally the BBC F1 coverage has been pretty good, I think. Just wish they’d get the Abu Dhabi circuit up on their online guide.
229 runnymede - I think you’ll find that their views suddenly change. At the moment they echo the views of their paymasters and ex-paymasters in the Home Office, as do the unelected appointees on Police Authorities.
Cameron’s monthly press conf on in 10 mins - R5.
@225:
That’s another very important point. We may have won all the key battles in Western Europe, but not even the entire West yet treats its LGBT citizens with dignity (I’m looking at you, AMERICA), let alone the rest of the world. The fight goes on.
236, not really interested in travelling, as a rule. Tempted to go to America, and find out if US ladies really can’t resist an English accent, but that’s it really. And maybe Germany. Not interested in visiting France.
216 - Drivel. Many sporting events, commemorations and the Trooping of the Colour are effectively British Pride events. Yes, if you advertised a British Pride March (in those precise terms), you might well attract some people we’d all agree are a more than bit dodgy. But your comment is just indicative of the usual sort of, “we’re a persecuted minority in our own country” nonsense spouted by so many on the right.
@235:
Stuart Dickson: ‘She is flattered by the barren, ugly landscape that surrounds her.’
That’s no way to talk about Scotland. FOR SHAME.
241 - They cant resist it.
225 I was in India back in 2006 and made some really good friends - at the time YMCA was top of the charts - they had no idea it was a gay anthem and were quite shocked/told me not to mention it in case anyone thought they may be.
I was astonished - had no idea it was still such a taboo even amongst the middle/upper classes.
244, they’ll have to resist yours though, Mr. Eagles, or Mrs. Eagles might not be pleased
230 Mr Dancer. Sometimes when they appear most to have changed they haven’t really at all:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/merseyside/8326810.stm
Not sure if it’s the name Pride or the concept of gay people turning out to celebrate you have trouble with. In may places Pride has either been dropped as the title or is more a hangover for what is just a big street party. Do you also feel the same way about national groups celebrating their commonalities in public?
@244:
That’s Mrs Eagles-elect.
246 - I wont be going to America for some while, apparently my name is the same as the name of a Taliban Terrorist.
And it’s a bloody hassle trying to get a visa, when you’ve got problems like that.
248, elect? Did she win the most votes?
247, did hear about that. However, such attacks have been declining over the longterm. In addition, it doesn’t alter my view that having a march because you’re proud of your sexuality, ethnicity, gender, height or blood group is daft.
248 - No, Mrs Eagles Elect is a Scouser.
212 Plato Who’s left in EFTA - Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Finland?
241 Mr Dancer - can strongly recommend the US. I did a mammoth road trip a couple of years ago around Colorado/California/Nevada and Utah.
I’m a desert/mountain nut and it was great - the people are so friendly and open on the whole. Those who sneer that Americans don’t have passports/have no idea about the rest of the world just need to spend a little time there.
There is really no reason to go abroad unless you’re curious about someone else’s culture.
249, psst! Are you Cat Stevens?
Martin.
Hannan wants a “deep cleansing referendum”
Rifkind thinks a referendum would be “dihonest”
I’m sure the position will be something like” we’ll renegotiate blah blah blah and if we don’t get it we’ll have referendum on it”
253, I do know some persons in Americaland, and could probably get put up rather than needing hotels. Still, stuff for the future, perhaps.
255. Still not trying to take the kids out for the day then Tim?
250 TSE My surname probably derives from the Cornish ‘tal ban’ (high hillside). Fortunately, I get to use the modern version, which is not recognizable as that, when coming and going from the States!
254 - Only in a Wild World, could I be Cat Stevens.
252 Yup - that’s about it.
We’d be very clean living though
@255:
A post-ratification referendum on Lisbon would be dishonest.
That’s not what Dan’s talking about. I’d be extremely surprised if that’s what Hague and Francois have cooked up. They’re smarter than that.
245. To the untrained western eye it does look strange in India to see so many men walking round holding hands. Without understanding the background, that this is a mark of friendship, I’m sure many western visitors must think there is a large gay community in every city they visit.
199. I accept there was a lot of cooking up going on but i would have thought it happened in scotland in that if you want to invent a new tartan you would do it at the mill by chucking whatever yarns you had into the mix and seeing what came out, rather than sketching it in watercolours hundreds of miles away.
This was what was ridiculous about Blair’s “knowledge based economy” theory that we would sit here brilliantly designing exotic new vacuum cleaners and send the spec out to china where the little yellow chaps would put them together. you design in the same place as you manufacture because that is the most efficient way of getting your prototyping done.
241 Morris Dancer. It’s probably true, after all one married me.
262. The Indians also find it perfectly reasonable for male friends/colleagues to share double beds, which raises Western eyebrows.
252 - Finland is in the EU. It’s Norway, Switzerland, Liechtenstein and Iceland (though the last of these has applied to join the EU).
261 - They ended up in alliance with Pro Lisbon homophobes.
Yep they’re smart.
265 Like Morecambe and Wise used to and no one raised eyebrows at all. It must have been the dressing gowns.
231 Jack and others.
Among his assorted offspring, Robert the Bruce’s daughter Princess Margaret married as his first wife William 5th Earl of Sutherland.
Their son John died in Lincoln of the plague while being kept as a hostage for the good behaviour of his uncle David II of Scotland.
Margaret died shortly thereafter and William married as his second wife Lady Joanna Menteith from whom I and most Sutherlands descend.
Lady Joanna was the daughter of Sir John Menteith, Governor of Dumbarton Castle who captured Sir William Wallace and surrendered him to Edward I of England.
AA Gill shot a baboon because he wanted to know what it would feel like to kill somebody:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/oct/26/aa-gill-shot-baboon
I suspect it was disappointing, unless the baboon was a leftie.
@270:
Gill admitted he had no good reason for killing the animal. “I know perfectly well there is absolutely no excuse for this,” he wrote. “There is no mitigation. Baboon isn’t good to eat, unless you’re a leopard. The feeble argument of culling and control is much the same as for foxes: a veil for naughty fun. I wanted to get a sense of what it might be like to kill someone, a stranger. You see it in all those films: guns and bodies, barely a close-up of reflection or doubt. What does it really feel like to shoot someone, or someone’s close relative?”
255 - I’m sure whatever that position is, you’ll be on hand to tell us all it’s a fiasco, while linking it to Death Tax and the fact David Cameron once bought a suit.
I really wish people on here wouldn’t talk about house prices still being ludicrously high on the same day as I may be taking the plunge as a first-time buyer this afternoon…
Good Morning.
I noticed that tim has vanished for the last half hour. Probably
Diarrhoea.
But I forget he even takes his laptop into the bog, so it must be memory loss instead.
Or the Bot could be having his regular oiling.
272 Good luck with it.
Mr Dancer
I’m still a bit confused as to why a march to celebrate something is a bad thing? I’m sure you wouldn’t disagree that in their original version Pride marches were about achieving something (an end to discrimination) and hence ok. Now in many places they are to remember what has been achieved and/or a celebration. So is that really different from a Golden Jubilee procession for instance?
Plato
I was in Delhi in June just before the 2nd Pride and met with friends and colleagues who are involved. It was extremely humbling and made me realise how remiss I am about remembering what so many people (many very quietly but openly) achieved to make my life liveable.
Martin Coxall
It fascinates me that so many of ‘us poofs’ on PB are not rabid lefties and so undermine sloppy shorthand thinking of many Labourites
273. Oh dear! He’s returned to the fray.
Had a good s**t tim?
When I was at the LSE late 1950s early 60s many of my friends were Indian.
They walked around holding hands in the street and nobody batted an eyelid.
Toenails banging on about Europe.
@275:
It was as Sean Fear said last week: most lefties automatically assume that if you’re black/Asian/gay and a Tory, you must be some kind of Uncle Tom figure.
It always surprises them when they realise that you actually have good arguments for why you hate leftie scum.
185. Statto, For me it says he does not have a life.
275, a Jubilee is essentially a public celebration of our glorious head of state. It’s an anniversary. A march saying “The monarchy is super”, whilst agreeing with my own view, would be pointless and stupid. Also, we didn’t have Jubilee marches.
OT: Nick Robinson banging on about Europe. Good boy, Nicky!
265 That would have been considered perfectly normal in medieval England too. Indeed, it was quite common for men to greet each other with a kiss (handshakes were a way of demonstrating that you weren’t carrying a weapon in your hand).
209 Stupid, but unsurprising.
275 One of the great scandals IMO was the AIDS characterisation as a ‘gay plague’. Jan Moir still seems to have that mind-set.
My uncle was one of the very first diagnosed/died of it back in the mid-80s and was all over the front/centre pages of the Star - lurid and completely untrue bollocks.
Still makes me boil 20 yrs on.
268. I believe Morecambe himself had issues with it when it was first brought up.
272. http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/lease.png
280. malcolmG.
I rest my case.
272 Andy D Back to house pricing. Unless this an investment for you, the only real question you need to ask is whether you are better off renting or buying. If you’re in it for the long term, it’s probably not a bad time to buy, given the amount of medium-term inflation world debt levels imply. Time to load up on debt and assets.
Is it me or has Cameron just changed how he refers to his colleagues? I don’t recall him always just using their first names before.
275, 281 I have a theory as to why the British Conservative Party is more liberal about homosexuality than either the US Republicans or the majority of its counterparts on the Continent.
I think it’s all to do with euroscepticism. Sean Gabb once did an online survey as to whether Conservative activists would prefer a gay eurosceptic or a married heterosexual europhile as their candidate. Overwhelmingly, they favoured the former. I think that euroscepticism has now become the main litmus test for acceptability within the Conservative Party.
Euroscepticism is obviously irrelevant in the US, and most continental right wing parties are europhile.
@287:
I don’t really approve of it, to be honest.
242. Sir Norfolk dear chap settle down, I was speaking partly in jest.
That said, we have already had to put up with left wingers claiming the Union Jack is racist, or even that the term ‘British’ is racist. It’s quite clear in what direction the left wants to go on this, and with ludicrous definitions of ‘racism’ such as that contained in the McPherson Report, the tools are there to do it.
255 tim I’m sure the position will be something like” we’ll renegotiate blah blah blah and if we don’t get it we’ll have referendum on it”
I agree that is what one might expect. However, what makes me think otherwise is that I can’t see why they wouldn’t already have said that, if it were the position, in order to defuse the issue as much as possible. They seem on the contrary to be building up to a position of maximum focus by journalists on exactly what the post-ratification policy would be.
Why would they do that, if they weren’t planning something less anodyne?
288 - Had it have been Michael Portillo v Ken Clarke put to the members in 2001, it would have been proved one way or the other.
239.”Cameron’s monthly press conf on in 10 mins - R5.”
He is a clever little sod having these monthly press Conferences to mimic the tradition started by Blair in office. Yet another excellent platform that enables him to give the impression that he is already comfortable behaving like a PM. And it yet again shows the stark contrast between Cameron and Brown as media performers. He is honing his political skills both with the media, and with the public at the Cameron direct Q&A meetings.
Brown was wrong to see Cameron as a novice, in this regard the shoe is very much on the other foot. Brown’s lack of media skill is compounded by his refusal to learn on the job in so many ways. Huge error.
@288:
One thing I learned this weekend is that the primary reason Dan Hannan supported Obama was that he consider John McCain too Europhile.
Apparently even the US State Department has a pro-EU bias. Who knew?
287 Plato. Not a bad tactic. Informal, anti-toff with the implied message to the public that name recognition/comfort levels are high
289 Thirtysomething Martin Coxall exposed as an old-fashioned traditionalist????
288 Single sex public schools probably also have something to do with it
Martin Coxall 294. May be so, but State is generally irrelevant in all real US political debates.
281 Well we did have a Jubilee ‘march’, but called it a parade as part of the ‘Jubilee Festival’ - it was the bit in The Mall that HNQ reviewed.
Interestingly the Pride Festival in London also had a Parade not a ‘march’.
A Jubilee is of course an anniversary, though neither the Silver nor Golden Jubilee celebrations were held on the date of the anniversary. Many Pride Celebrations are held on the weekend closest to the Stonewall Riots, though Londons isn’t, and are also an anniversary.
Oh, and btw, I agree we should have some parades saying The Monarchy is Super. I’d be there like a shot.
291 - I’m pleased to see your faith in William Hague.
A man with his name on a baseball cap who supported Jeffrey Archer for London Mayor obviously has a masterplan up his sleeve.
286 - thanks TimT. It’s to buy and live in as a long-term move, so I’m willing to stomach the risk of prices dipping down another 10-20% in the short term as I’d at least be a few years into the mortgage by then. Obviously a 40-50% dip would be extremely bad news, but then the chances of that must be quite remote.
Thanks again.
299 Sorry HNQ = HMQ I seem to have converted Her Maj into a vocational qualification.
299, hmm, can’t work out if you’re being cheeky or did misread me saying that I consider almost all marches of a general nature (gay pride, bloody type O celebration, the festival of men between 5′7″-5′10″ etc) are pointless.
Anyway, we’ll just have to agree to disagree. Unless of course you want to agree I’m right
301 - Look on the brightside Andy, In about 6 weeks time, I’m going to have two mortgages!
288 Surely it’s got more to do with the fact the Tory party is not owned/funded by the evangelical movement in the same way as the GOP. Although IDS did flirt with that idea.
302 - Off with his head…
@300:
I suspect the masterplan is more likely to be Francois’s. Given Hague’s comments about “hostile acts”, it looks like Hague’s new role is to be a linguistically-adept bovver boy in Europe.
294-Not surprised. Didn’t Alger Hiss work there?
Foreign ministries always seem to attract the wrong sort…
I agree with Martin Coxall and others of his ilk. How many people were beaten up last night? Statistically 2 were murdered in E&W, 14 over the last week. Yet all the news bulletins are about some bloke in Liverpool.
Nice to see that Kevin Toilets Maguire hard at work as usual. Leader of the opposition and most likely next PM giving his monthly press conference, Kevin is off home!
305 But then, nor are the Continentals.
301 Andy D. If you can buy in the bottom 20% and sell in the top 80%, you’ll do well!
305. Or more simply that religious fundamentalism (outside some minority communities) has very little traction in the UK, whereas it has a strong tradition in the US - which arguably has grown stronger still in recent years.
303 Indeed, and I shold apologise for turning a thread about matters blue to one about matters pink. Instead could we talk about making kedgeree from genetically modified haddock?
BBC ticker: Cameron - we would oppose Tony Blair as EU President
A mistake, I fear. Rather begs the question of whom he would prefer from Britain’s point of view. Saying “we’d rather there wasn’t an EU President” isn’t a good answer.
307 - Perhaps.
Its certainly Francois who’ll take the rap if the ECR falls apart.
Back to the topic, I never realised Sion Simon was Welsh. Do you think he expects Labour to pick up seats in Wales?
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
290. On the basis of MacPherson; if one takes racially-motivated incidents as a proxy for racism; and using the last-published figures from the BCS; - the biggest racists in the UK are its ethnic minorities.
300 tim - I wasn’t commenting on whether any plan would be a good one, as I have no idea what it would be. I was merely pointing out that the external signs suggest something non-anodyne.
Richard Navabi @291: “Why would they do that, if they weren’t planning something less anodyne?”
Of course another way to read this is that Hague et al are building up euroskeptical expectations of what Cameron’s going to announce to box Cameron into announcing something euroskeptical…
Cameron “El Presidente Blair”
@315:
Well, since that isn’t going to happen, I doubt he has much to worry about.
If we remain in the EU, I suspect Francois will be tasked with expanding the ECR. There are several groupings the ECR could cannibalise.
314. Saying “we’d rather there wasn’t an EU President” isn’t a good answer.
How about “We’d rather there were a referendum on Lisbon, as we were promised, to establish whether we agree that there should be a President, rather than having President Blair foisted on us after he ensured there was no such referendum”?
318 - How much of that is people projecting their own desires is debatable.
Hannans ludicrous ramping up of his “inside track on the Czechs stopping Lisbon” tells you there’s some delusions that take over when Europe is mentioned.
“wibbler, ukpaul, tim B, anyone interested in US healthcare debate. Another interesting piece on Reid’s difficulties ahead and the position of doctors on the debate.”
I prefer to ignore politicians of all types writing about their partisan views (as in the GOP’s Coburn here), I much prefer columnists (and occasionally politicians can do it!) who are prepared to think outside their own biases.
Having said that he stumbles over a good point, although from the wrong angle; triangulation is not the way to go with other parties, they won’t give you support anyway, with your own then it works (as in the opt out).
Looking at it from outside it makes Reid a little stronger in that it shows a committment to federalism and maybe this will play will in Nevada. He knows he’s got a tough job on and at least this stops him being seen as too craven to the insurance industries, something which was also losing him votes. I doubt it will be enough though, he needs to show much greater leadership in other areas.
@323:
Maybe. Then again, I’d expect Dan Hannan to be more likely to have the inside track on Conservative Party and ECR thinking on Europe than most.
323. Are any of these delusions as strong as your delusion that you’re a farmer, tim?
Farmer Tupac: the farmer who doesn’t know when apples are in season, what oil goes in a tractor or what grain yields per acre.
325 and certainly more of an inside track than Tim does.
326. A fish farmer?
326
he could be running a sewage farm.
327 - Farmer Tupac is Michael Crick and I claim my 5 euros.
Disgusting article by Riddell in the Telegraph, in which she appears to say that the main advantage of Blair will be to stop a democratically elected PM of Great Britain doing what he was democratically elected to do
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/maryriddell/6441189/Britains-on-the-wane-and-the-EU-is-our-only-hope-of-influence.html
314 Bob
From watching the press conference Cameron is arguing that if there has to be a EU President they should not be someone who ‘feels the hand of destiny on their shoulder’ but that they should be a chairman who gets countries working together in mutual self interest.
How that plays with the public I don’t know. I guess it would depend how Blair is still viewed.
David Cameron: More slippery than an eel swimming in KY Jelly.
323. tedious tim: there’s some delusions that take over when Europe is mentioned.
Oh, absolutely. The media showed delusions over Europe druing the Tory conference, believing there was a split when there wasn’t; and showed it today when they focused almost entirely on Europe in a press conference where it was barely mentioned.
333 - In your opinion.
323-Think the most interesting thing from Cameron’s press conference (does Brown give any?) was his admission that ” we are now getting to that point” or something to that effect, when questioned about Plan (or C) re Lisbon when the Czechs ratify.
333 Jonathan
More slippery than a party that promises a referendum in their manifesto and then slithers out of it?
“236, not really interested in travelling, as a rule. Tempted to go to America, and find out if US ladies really can’t resist an English accent, but that’s it really. And maybe Germany. Not interested in visiting France.”
I try to get to the US every couple of years and I’m just back from there (I’m gradually picking up different areas!). Frankly, it’s nice to be able to get around without displaying my useless language skills and it’s fun to just chat with all types of people, usually my excuse is something arts based.
@334:
The media are hoping for a “Tories take on Europe and Win” story. When Blair doesn’t get appointed as President of Europe, the media will claim the sinking of Blair as Hague’s victory. A victory he’ll no doubt be happy to be associated with.
325 - Hannan is a deluded egotist.
All inside track and secretive nonsense.
Makes Rogers tips look good.
I know that a lot of people who comment on this blog are sceptical about the prospect of getting a vote on the treaty under the Tories. Then again, they tended to be the same people who were sceptical about the establishment of the ECR.
I am increasingly confident that Britain will get its referendum. I’m not in a position to explain why at this stage, but our hand is stronger than is generally supposed. I know this won’t do for some of my readers, but I’m afraid that, for now, you’ll just have to take my word for it.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100008876/euro-sceptic-meps-hold-our-inaugural-conference/
I thought DCs press conference was highly accomplished. The format really plays to his strengths. Much rather see DC in Q&A than making a speech any day. Unlike Gordon he really gets into gear when able to interact with others.
277. “When I was at the LSE late 1950s early 60s many of my friends were Indian.
They walked around holding hands in the street and nobody batted an eyelid.”
Yes, I noticed this when I was 3 months in Bangalore in the mid-1990s. There was, of course, a statistical shortage of young females and a complete drought re. opportunities to rodger (females).
314.”A mistake, I fear. Rather begs the question of whom he would prefer from Britain’s point of view. Saying “we’d rather there wasn’t an EU President” isn’t a good answer.”
I disagree. He has a point, most of Europe didn’t get a referendum on this issue among others in the Lisbon Treaty.
“Rather begs the question of whom he would prefer from Britain’s point of view. Saying “we’d rather there wasn’t an EU President” isn’t a good answer.” — No he he absolutely right.
Why should we (the EU) have a president? why should we gave an unelected president?
Why should we have a president of such disrepute he was thrown out of office deposed by his own party?
IF having a British president is so so so good, then from the French German Italian et al perspective it must be so so so bad.
The reality is that an EU president can only have one nationality at a time which will leave 27 nations disappointed. So why should we worry about a non UK President?
@340:
Of course, when he turns out to be right (as invariably he is), I imagine this will be another tim prediction that gets swept quietly under the carpet of time.
One never seems to hear anything of Brown’s monthly press conferences - when was the last one, when is the next?
Does he arrange for Harperson to stand in for him?
346 - The last one that I can remember was the one after the Euro’s when Caroline Flint resigned, and Fraser Nelson skewered Brown over cuts.
“A mistake, I fear. Rather begs the question of whom he would prefer from Britain’s point of view.”
Gary Glitter, Eddie the Eagle, Lembit Opik, almost anyone would be preferable from Britain’s point of view.
Just watched John Howard ( ex Aussie PM )on DP, pity he couldn’t run UK.
345. Good point. What happened to Andy Coulson in the end?
350 - It’s a defered resignation.
322 - But they aren’t saying that at all, John. They are saying that, if anyone is to be EU President, it shouldn’t be Blair.
As Bob says, it comes across as cutting off your nose to spite your face - as preferring a more Europhile and less pro-UK candidate just because Blair beat you in some elections.
Indeed, Hague has bizarrely been hawking around the idea on the continent that Blair is dangerously Atlanticist and Eurosceptic… but surely that would make him the Conservatives’ preferred choice? It is an odd strategy which undermines credibility.
341.PollyB, totally agree. And he was excellent today, very confident and assured. Sounds like it was a packed house, a big change from the early days I suspect. Skynews are certainly given prominence as well.
346. He seems to go in phases - either we’re inundated with Brown press conferences or there’s a complete dearth of them. In line with his general manic depressive style I suppose.
352 I suspect that William Hague is banking on the fact that he doesn’t have any credibility in Europe to undermine.
@352:
I suspect part of any incoming Tory administration’s strategy will be to undermine the work of the European Council at any cost. That means getting the most incompetent President and High Rep possible.
348 - I think that rather makes my point for me. Simply asserting that Blair would be an appalling choice with no attempt at serious argument.
The impression given is simply that Conservatives are involved in settling an old personal score against a three time election winner who retired undefeated. Very undignified.
Feck off with your endless stream of insults tim. We currently have a Europe minister famous for publicly posing in his underpants - give me Hague with mickey mouse written on his hat any day.
Give me Hague as deputy leader when compared to a fat bastard socialist who pays his secretary to gobble him after remembrance day parade.
Give me Hague any day to a pair of greasy apparatchiks who whilst sitting in the next desk to Brown plot to smear the private lives of their opponents.
I cannot conceive that the glass house you are living in has any windows left at all by now.
345 - Shhhhh Martin.
Only Dan knows the secret Czech plan to stop Lisbon.
He’ll tell you..err…when the Czechs have signed, what it was and how it was crushed.
OMG - was looking for link for Gordon’s press conference and tripped over this instead.
On the front page FFS
http://tinyurl.com/sarahborwnisPM
“As Bob says, it comes across as cutting off your nose to spite your face - as preferring a more Europhile and less pro-UK candidate just because Blair beat you in some elections. ”
No. He’s being promoted as someone who can work against a euroscpetic British government, which is precisely why we don’t wan him.
@355:
I suspect Hague’s banking on the fact that Europe knows he’ll be the UK’s Foreign Secretary next spring, so they’d better well bloody do what they’re damn well told.
As Britons, the last thing we want is Europe believing it can go around thinking for itself.
352 SNP
How good was Blair for our country when he was ‘president’ of the UK? He won’t suddenly become good for the UK just because he is president of the EU.
@359:
I think we’ve already seen the opening salvos in Klaus’s plan.
357 - My objections to Blair is a man, he has to stand up EU leaders, but in reality, he didn’t stand up to Bush on several matters.
And more crucially he was steamrollered and hamstrung as PM for 10yrs by the political genius that is Gordon Brown.
Will Blair be able to stand up when Merkel and Sarkozy come up with a plan that is not good?
365 - Blair is a man, should read Blair is mainly.
364 - Do tell.
365
He didn’t stand up to Chirac and Schroder hence we lost Thatcher’s rebate.
The man has no spine.
Re Ms Truss - I can believe that some silly numpties are attempting to get her deselected over her old affair.
I hope she faces them down - it’s not like there isn’t a lot of it about even in Norfolk.
333 Jonathan “More slippery than an eel swimming in KY Jelly”
Clearly the activities at your parties are somewhat less conservative than at those most of us attend. Speaking personally I have never seen an eel swimming in anything other than a river or the sea.
Tories making a mistake for me in the way they are opposing Blair. If they want to take a position of opposing anyone as president on principle, then fine, but instead they are seemingly opposing Blair on the basis that he is Labour.
Similar to the lack of principle on display yesterday. Had Osborne presented his bonus cap plan as a matter of ‘principle’ then fair enough, and would be delighted to see such a principle extended. It wasn’t however.
I realise I am still swimming against the tide ere but still, it all feels wrong to me.
353. At the risk of too much harmony breaking out, I was just going to post that I completely agree with yours @ 293.
369 I think you mean “particularly in Norfolk.”
340 - tim, who are you to call anyone a deluded egotist?
On president Blair, I don’t like him, the post shouldn’t exist and there should be a referendum on the constitution. However if the post is to exist I would rather Blair had it than some of the more dangerous Euro loonies. Blair does at least visit the real world from time to time.
When I visited the Euro parliament I saw the rather bizarre sight of a succession of MEP’s berating the British contingent for not selling the constitution enough. They claimed that “deep down” the British love the EU and don’t care about democracy, we just need them to tell us that. They seem to sit there telling each other how wonderful they are and how everyone loves them. Completely detached from reality.
Press conferences - its not what you say - nobody listens and even if they did they forget after 24 hours.
Brown has given speech after speech after speech. All meaningless. He gave one of such paralysing banality in Boston a while ago that I was reduced to eating my lower intestine in order to retain my sanity and Senator Kennedy left to have a brain tumour removed.
Oh tell a lie, I do remember one where he trumpeted the light touch regulation he had introduced over the financial sector.
The questions do not matter either. It does not matter if they are not relevant or if you would like other questions to answer.
Its how you respond to the questions that counts. A press conference is less about saying anything, its about the public examining you in much the same way that we used to be able to do with the contestants in the Miss World Contest.
373
My Dad, god rest his soul often mentioned the “peculiarities” relating Norfolk. Where does the story originate?
@367:
I don’t know any more than you do. But I think recent pot shots have not been the last gasp of a desperate man but the opening salvos of a spoiler operation, and maybe that’s what Dan was referring to.
Of course, I could be completely wrong.
“From watching the press conference Cameron is arguing that if there has to be a EU President they should not be someone who ‘feels the hand of destiny on their shoulder’ but that they should be a chairman who gets countries working together in mutual self interest.”
That’s the key issue, actaully. Daniel Finklestein pointed this out recently-Blair would set an activist precedent for the role.
371.Dyed Woolie, I disagree. But more importantly, Brown and Darling have created a huge vacuum just now that Cameron and Osborne are filling very competently. I suspect that there was another relaunch grid planned to kick off over the weekend, but the latest figures out on Friday scuppered it. Apart from a promise from Brown that he will deliver us out of recession for Christmas, nothing.
372.PollyB.
The girls have it!
376 It comes from Norfolk being better than the rest of the UK, and the rest of the UK being jealous about it.
Eat our dust, pigdogs.
371. Disws - Osborne did present his plan as a matter of principle (and as a matter of taking practical steps). It was the media that decided to announce it was ‘just a stunt’. Likewise Cameron stated clearly he was opposed to the principle of an EU President - and then made plain, if there had to be one it should be a ‘chair’ role, not a high profile post. At no point has Cameron opposed Blair on the grounds that he is Labour.
373 - A couple of things on the Norfolk Truss thing.
1.As the Mail had that story all over it and no one in the constituency knew then this has to be a good thing.
A Tory branch with no Mail readers (unless all those who read the article died before the selection meeting)
2.The idea that not one person googled their potential MPs in a safe seat is a quaint story in itself.
Do they smash up Sinclair Spectrums in some Norfolk Wicker Man type rituals?
I’ve just tried searching No 10’s website for Gordon’s press conferences and I’d never guess from the results that he was meant to do them every month.
http://tinyurl.com/GBpressconferences
376 MTF they dont have as many sheep in Norfolk as we have in the Highlands so have to find other ways of amusing themselves during the long dark windswept winter evenings
379 It is what they are filling the vacuum with that concerns me, Christina.
379.
I think we’re awaiting the flood of Tory suggestions about who amongst the vaguely credible candidates would be a better EU President.
All we’re getting at the moment is just tending to prove my point - that the key motivation is personal dislike based on three unanswered election drubbings.
I’m not a Blair fan, but he is pretty capable, would be strong on relations with the US and avoiding fortress Europe, and is likely to be more in tune with British interests than any other credible candidate.
“but instead they are seemingly opposing Blair on the basis that he is Labour.” — I am sure there are many people of a more cross party persuasion that could be a British candidate for the EU presidency.
As Cameron said today they oppose Blair because he would represent the faction that perceive the EU as a state in its own right and not as a loser collection of sovereign nations.
And why should any Briton want to see Blair pick up the laurels of EU president when he sold our rebate down the river. A fine dowry for a duplicitous politician.
Norfolk = better than you
Learn and digest PBers
PollyB - I said ’seemingly’ - as in how it comes across to me, and Osborne’s cap is not a ‘principle’ as it only applies short term and is not limited to ‘decision makers’ - knee-jerk vote grab.
385.Dyed Woolie, its simple, its leadership, direction and stability.
All of which are desperately lacking from this government right now.
367.tim,every day it seems you want to post about Europe.
It also seems to me tim that you would like to be a patriot of a European super state,instead of a patriot of this great nation.
Well tim,I’ve posted you a song I want you to sing along with,go on tim lad,sing
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ2FOBxshWY&feature=related
Re Blair and the Tories - they would be better employed opposing the unelected role of EU president on principle than ‘not Blair’ - which leads to ‘then who?’
an unelected EU president is an affront. That is the message they should be pressing.
Tony Blair would take the EU in the wrong direction (from the Tory point of view). He may be supremely capable and effective in doing that but that is still no reason to have him as president. The wrong direction is the wrong direction no matter how fast someone takes you down it.
SNP: How was Blair in tune with British interests during his time as PM? I quite liked him as a person but his policies and implementation sucked.
I think the appointment of Blair as President would poison Labour’s chances at a GE still further. Still, Labour seem deterermined to cook up a brew of henbane and deadly nightshade, and drink it.
Blair may have won three general elections, but his reputation among the general population in the UK is at a very low ebb. Most on the left see him as having squandered some of the best chances (100 plus majorities) for real reform; most on the centre accept his Gov’ts reputation for economic competence has vanished like money invested in dodgy oil-stock; whilst most on the right loathe him for beating them three times.
The only people who hold him in high regard are the Americans.
I think it would be a disastour move for Labour to parachute him into this position.
Re Norfolk - I worked there a while ago and found it to be a very conservative/inward looking place.
My colleagues made ‘jokes’ about not being a local unless you had been there for 25 generations. As someone who has worked all over the country, I didn’t like it at all - it felt censorious.
I wouldn’t go back. Whilst I hope Ms Truss makes a go of it - I can’t help feeling that she’s always going to have a whispering campaign against her - from her own side.
‘I’m not a Blair fan’
A lot of Lib Dems say that, but their sincerity on the point is questionable. I suspect they mostly sympathise with Riddell’s point from earlier about a Blair regime in Europe being able somehow to restrain a Tory one in the UK.
Yes, all are important, but to where, and when? That is the concern.
There is no lack of capital in the banking sector that means some people cannot get loans - merely an unwillingess to lend. It will not be solved by capping bonuses. Wherefore the policy then?
395 Did you travel here in some sort of time machine?
Re Norfolk, the only good thing ever to come out of Norfolk is the A140 to Suffolk.
AWS strikes again! I offer my heartiest sympathies to the pie eating Labourites.
“A major internal row has broken out after Labour chiefs voted to veto male candidates in BOTH Wigan Parliamentary seats.
The party’s London-based NEC hierarchy decided late yesterday that the battles to replace MPs Neil Turner and Ian McCartney will be fought out with all-female short lists.
Activitists in both borough Constituency Labour Parties (CLP) admitted that they were “gobsmacked” by the shock decision.
One said today: “I think a local male candidate would have had a fighting chance but if it is a woman foisted on the Wigan party and the Wigan people it will be a disaster.”"
http://www.wigantoday.net/wigannews/Allwomen-shortlist-for-both-Wigan.5728339.jp
387 SNP, Blair “…would be strong on relations with the US…”
Probably the stupidest of your comments yet. Blair would do the bidding of the US.
It is like saying cotton slaves had strong relations with the plantation owner.
395 Obviously a lot of paranoid wifies in Norfolk who think Ms Truss is going to be “gunning for their man”…
377 - I think you’ve been brainwashed in your Hannanite Blaney cult weekend.
I hope they didn’t charge you, because when Lisbon is signed you should sue.
This is the way to deal with cults.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/oct/27/scientology-church-fraud-france
399 The A140 ends up just short of Ipswich, we have lonf countenanced cutting it off between Scole and Diss to stop the Tractators coming up here.
402 - It might be more a case that some of the wifies in Norfolk, might have husbands who cheated, and they cant stand any woman that breaks up a marriage.
I know one female colleague, who normally a nice quite rational person, but when it comes to adulterers, she’s quite happy for Sharia law to be introduced on adulterers.
All because her marriage broke up because of husband, cheating with another woman.
@402:
Ms Truss should do a full-on “Harper Valley PTA” against the suspiciously aquatic Innsmouth residents.
Further news from Pieland on the triumphant use of AWS:
“Labour row over women shortlists
Ian McCartney MP will stand down at the general election
A row has broken out in Wigan over a decision by the Labour Party to impose all-women candidate shortlists on two constituencies in the town.
The party wants women to replace the Makerfield MP Ian McCartney and Wigan MP Neil Turner when they step down at the general election.
Local members are to fight the decision by the National Executive Party (NEC) and have started a petition.
The party said it was important that Parliament was more open.
Ann Rampling, who organised the petition, attended a constituency meeting of her fellow Makerfield party members on Monday night.
She told the BBC that local members believe both men and women should be able to stand as prospective parliamentary candidates.
If people want a Parliament that is more open, plural and democratic then we need to make big changes
North West Labour Party
“What we want is a really good choice across the board, not just women.
“We want men as well so we can pick the best, literally the best for our area.”
But a spokesperson for the party in the North West said it was vital to impose the all-women lists for the future “democracy” of Parliament.
“The NEC organisational sub-committee took the decision that the selection process for both Makerfield and Wigan should be based on all-women shortlists,” they said.
“If people want a Parliament that is more open, plural and democratic then we need to make big changes.
“Labour has the most successful record of women’s representation in comparison to all other political parties and will always have equality as a core value.
“The NEC will always listen to the views of individual constituency Labour parties but there is no formal appeal process in regards to all-women shortlists.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/manchester/8327263.stm
400 Labour needs more like Hazel Blears - they should go for All Short Women lists….
*gets coat, heads towards door….*
@403:
I hope that Lisbon does get signed, actually. I consider it a distraction from the fight we should be fighting.
The only real advantage to its not being signed will be watching the EU’s mounting panic as the spring approaches.
408 “suspiciously aquatic ”
What a tit!
“Unless Europe gets its act together, policymakers in Washington, Delhi, RIO DE JANEIRO, Moscow and Beijing and elsewhere are going to conclude that Europe is not ready to be the partner they want.” - Foreign Secretary David Miliband
On the two burning issues:
1) Tony Blair restraining a Conservative government sounds just ideal to me.
2) Norfolk is by some way England’s finest county. It still has a strong sense of place that is unique to it.
@403:
Awww, poor Xenu.
So, a quick check of the thread shows us that on the subject of Norfolk…
DISWS - spot on genius from the best part of the UK
The rest - jealously eyeing our finery from their inferior counties/countries/micronations.
404 - I see that the Norfolk Constituency has a track record.
The association also has a history of getting into difficulty in candidate selection. In 1987 it chose Baroness (Gillian) Shephard in a re-run after the initial choice of a male barrister from Oxfordshire caused a revolt within its ranks.
In 2004 the hot favourite to succeed her as the Tory candidate, Nick Hurd, fell at the final hurdle when failing to give a clear commitment to make his main home in the constituency. He was beaten by Christopher Fraser, who is now stepping down after MPs’ expenses revelations disclosed that he had claimed ’second home’ allowance money on his property in Norfolk.
404. I like both Norfolk and Suffolk - does that make me very odd?
414 addendum, antifrank is on the side of the angels too.
Norfolk 2 Rest of the country minus zero
411. Milipede fails political geography test, again.
Iain Martin’s WSJ blog - FT Watch: Brown’s Brother, the Energy Giant and an Attack on the Tories
416 it makes you half an angel
419 - Wonder what he got in return, his cleaning done for free?
418 - What an idiot Miliband is. Apart from the schoolboy howler, there is the underlying assumption that European affairs should be arranged for the convenience of the US, India, Russia, China, and some country in South America that he is confused about.
418. Extra prep for young Miliband this week, methinks.
Sam Coates at his Red Box Blog - Is this a stumbling block for the ’save general election night’ campaign
199. “Thanks to Stuart, while they’re still reeling from this one I can now stick them onto the canvas by adding “By the way, did you know William Wallace was Welsh?””
He wasn’t, at least as far as the word is understood today. He was of Strathclyde British ancestry. Strathclyde was one of the remnant British states that survived the post-Roman collapse and in the 9th century merged with Dalriada and other bits to form the emergent kingdom of Scotland. Being Britons, the Strathclyders spoke a language closely related to Welsh - and being English, the invaders completely failed to see any difference between them and the Welsh of Wales (or indeed the “Welsh” of Cornwall and Brittany, hence “Wallace”. It’s not known exactly when the British language died out in Strathclyde, but it’s perfectly possible it was still around in Wallace’s time. He was as Scottish as anybody who could trace his ancestry back before the formation of the kingdom.
On topic - not surprised by the high personal ratings for Rhodri Morgan. He’s always been popular in Wales and he especially won a great deal of sympathy for the dignified way he endured the disgraceful blairite stitch-up that put Alun Michael in to the top job in the assembly. As somebody said upthread, he’s the best sort of old labour figure who can win respect across the political spectrum. (Personal confession - as a tory with nationalist sympathies, the only time I’ve ever voted labour was when I lived in Cardiff West and voted accordingly in the assembly elections. It was most definitely a vote for Rhodri, not for labour.)
“I’m not a Blair fan, but he is pretty capable, would be strong on relations with the US and avoiding fortress Europe,”
And on just whose authority would he pursue these objectives? Who elected him to represent me or anybody. The labpur Party went out of their way to eject him.
In case you did not notice we are already in fortress Europe, behind a wall of tariffs that are strangling the third world.
If Blair were capable he would have sacked Brown in 2001. Everything points to Blair being incapable.
Just as I post attacking AWS this appears on Conhome:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2009/10/david-cameron-changes-tactics-on-all-women-shortlists.html
It’s not much of a concession but at least he seems to have realised that this was a bad idea.
160 - Looks like that “Big Government” speech of Mr Cameron’s was well aimed
It’ll be interesting to see how Labour can fashion their pitch against that kind of public support for smaller government.
419 Rather lazy from Iain Martin, whilst we understand and sympathise that the WSJ is the FT’s main competitor and he’s got to please the hand that holds his leash, surely he can do better and go out and get a story of his own.
Talking of s##t for brains, did anybody see the Panorama program last night about dangerous offenders? I missed the name of the moronic woman minister, who decided that arguing black was white, then white was black was a great idea!
Labour think-tank ‘airbrushed link between migrants and crime in immigration report for Blair’WHAT A BUNCH OF BAST*RDS.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1223296/Labour-think-tank-airbrushed-link-migrants-crime-immigration-report-Blair.html
424 “(PS they also found the largest single incident of fraud in the European elections in June involved 24 photocopies of a ballot paper returned in a single envelope)”
If you think Norfolk is odd, try The Headland in Hartlepool. Makes the rest of Hartlepool seem normal!
425- I think the pre Welsh language is called Brythonic, but I may be wrong. There was also a Cumbrian dialect that may have survived until the very early middle ages.
Freedom for Rheged!
425. It’s an interesting question as to what extent the Strathclyde Wealhas would have considered themselves different from those living in modern Wales, Cornwall and pockets of England if you go back a few hundred years before Wallace’s time of course.
The notion of a broader identity was still alive in Glyndwr’s time, albeit heavily mythologised.
TrevorDen@426: “And on just whose authority would he pursue these objectives? Who elected him to represent me or anybody.”
In the hypothetical case where the EU governments choose Blair, he would have been elected by the sovereign governments of the EU member states, under rules agreed unanimously by all the said sovereign governments. Now I personally don’t like having everything filtered through national governments, and think the people of Europe should be able to elect the EU officials directly, or failing that have the European Parliament choose someone. But I don’t see why right-wingers are suddenly going all Federalist on us over this…
The immigration story plugs directly into the BNP/WWC issue for Labour. Unsurprised by the lack of BBC coverage.
Watched the Daily Politics, and Yasmin Aliblahblahblah pissed me off. Silly bitch.
433 Hartlepool Headland is a great birdwatching spot - but yeah, real weird vibe round there.
But not as weird as South Gare, Redcar.
416 - I too like both Norfolk and Suffolk, but it’s fun to wind up both sets of inbred yokels.
Now Yorkshire, that’s what Eden probably looked like.
412 you are talking rubbish about Norfolk and you know it
437. I’m always heartened by her appearences, as she very much represents the future of the Labour Party.
439 It is actually fun to be wound up by one’s inferiors. We are a gregarious folk in Norfolk.
437 - I hope she’s on the list. She annoys me no end, and especially after this spiteful article when she called Asians and Black Tories Uncle Toms
Almost more depressing is the sight of black and Asian Britons following the wind blowing the Tories to victory. Boris has recruited Afro Caribbean “leaders” who believe in physical chastisement and smart young Asians who deny the existence of racism and want an end to political correctness.
The more old-fashioned Uncle Toms and their female equivalents are now expediently making themselves known to the Tories and right-wing think tanks.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/yasmin-alibhai-brown/yasmin-alibhaibrown-a-lament-for-the-death-of-the-left-as-a-political-force-838215.html
439 Yorkshire, surely a bit too parky around the fig leaf.
437 - Oooh another conspiracy.
Even by Mail standards this is a weak one.
Look what was “removed”
The section on crime, which was later omitted, had warned: ‘Migration has opened up new opportunities for organised crime.’
However, it continued that migrants were not more likely to be criminals despite more foreign nationals ending up in prison.
This was down to foreign visitors being held at airports and ports for drug smuggling and not about migrants looking to settle in the UK, the report said.
But I’m sure the spectrum of believers on here will be along soon.
On tony Blair-He was either guilty of gross misjudgement or gross lieing in relation to the Iraq war. I realise that could make him a viable candidate in the EU ’s eyes but why should the British people support him with this record?
444 - No, it’s not cold round here.
440 The Fenlands are really weird - lots of people who look spookily alike.
441 - Is she Labour?
I thought she was dabbling with the Lib Dems
@443:
Yes, but Yasmin Alibhi-Brown is a racist.
I wouldn’t piss on scum like her if she were on fire.
Just seen the Bryant-Francois bit on Newsnight. Francois did well.
Ian Kirby NoW blog - Gordon’s Gold Blunder
448 - As my higher power says about Norfolk, even the turkeys look the same.
407 According to Tim Montgomerie on Facebook Cameron said there would be two more all postal primaries (TM guesses Bromsgrove & Gosport - now what do they have in common with Totnes I wonder).
Much better idea than AWS.
427. Bob.
Interesting. I missed Cameron’s original comments at the time, but there’s a significant distinction between a shortlist composed entirely of women and an All-Women Shortlist. Whether this is a backtracking or the original was misworded, it’s to be welcomed.
What I would be interested to learn is if there’s any data on runners-up in candidate selection, as those are the people (I would guess) most likely to make up CCHQ-imposed shortlists.
@448:
Yeah, the lidless eyes, webbed fingers and gills are a dead giveaway.
449 - I saw her on a Sky Paper review a few weeks ago, and I think she said she liked the Lib Dems, but would probably vote labour to stop the evil Tories getting in.
445 - “However, it continued that migrants were not more likely to be criminals despite more foreign nationals ending up in prison”
However, that is the most logical conclusion.
All sides in the Europe debate are delusional. Hannan was deluded about Klaus holding out, Tories are delusional if they think the UK will ever leave, Cameron is delusional if he thinks he will be able to repatriate serious powers…
But equally the left is utterly myopic. Here’s one example: they seem keen to foist Blair on us as an unelected EU president (and “the second most powerful man in the world” - I have already seen that phrase in newspapers). They want this cause he’s sort of a lefy, ish, and one of theirs, of course.
Yet their eagerness to make the europrez a significant role (just for Blair) totally ignores the fact that the next prez after Blair may be much more rightwing, say, a conservative Bavarian catholic, or a libertarian rightwing Czech. Who knows.
How would they feel about an unelected president ruling over them, with values totally opposed to theirs, a man or woman they never voted for? They would hate it. Yet they couldn’t get rid of him. He is unelected.
This will happen. The political pendulum will swing.
Indeed I predict that a few years after the EU presidential role is created, the moral pressure to make him elected by the people will become unbearable. You can’t have a “second most powerful man in the world” without a democratic mandate.
In the future, we WILL have an elected EU president. And judging by the political sentiments of most of Europe, especially the Eastern Europeans, he will be usually be on the right.
I wonder if the glistening lefty roaches on here will be quite so europhile then? I doubt it. But it will be too late.
David Mills gets four and a half years.
456 You tease - what do they have in common? Expensegate incumbents?
360. The Sarah Brown puffery on the official No.10 site is extraordinary. There are signs that it may be backfiring if my family are anything to go by. My mum (floating voter) was very scathing about Gordon using his wife as “a prop”.
Norfolk has the worst accessibility of any county in England for a start. Why it has single lane roads to connect Norwich with other major towns around I don’t know -The norwich /Ipswich connection takes you through countless villages .
448 The Fens are primarily Cambridgeshire and Lincolnshire - very little of it comes into Norfolk, if we are still talking Norfolk that is.
459 - I agree with you and the pressure for an elected President will be correct and irresistable.
That would’ve been the smart line for Cameron to take.
Well as a welshman in Wales I feel I should input my thoughts for the area based on local feelings:
Hunch = bye bye Labour from Clwyd South, Delyn and Vale of Clwyd.
I have friends who were gd of Labour being in power, who now have facebook political views saying:
Anyone but Labour
Gordon is a moron
Gordon brown puts the GB into GBH
and other numerous witty phrases.
Gordon Brown is a significant vote killer for Labour here.
66. Fluffythoughts says Wales is like Belgium with less character. Thats good news. That is the intention of having the less attractive areas like Wrexham on the border to stop people moving in to my secret valleys haha
45. Christina D, seems to be confucion on wallace origins. Wallace does indicate somewhere in his ancestry his relatives spoke a variant of welsh.
One of the least known historical facts of these isles is that from lands end up to strath clyde (welsh@ ystrad clud) variants of old (brythonic) welsh. I know its history from the myths of times but recent research suggests indigeneous (starthclyde and gallowway) Welsh was spoken up until the start of 1300s from whence it disappeared.
Wallace wis believed to be a surname given to the welsh speaking ‘natives’ of Southern Scotland. One of the best known ancient welsh piece of literature the goddodin was written in this realm
Lectur over :X
460. Is he married?
460 wow!
466. I live in CLwyd West btw.
From Cameron’s press conference, as reported by ConHome:
The Mail’s Quentin Letts asked what he thought a former leader like Blair should be doing. “I’ve got so many things to worry about, that what Tony Blair does with well-funded retirement is just too far down the list… I thought he was solving the Middle East? He could carry on with that for a bit.”
I see that Guido has already noted that Miliband mixed up the thong capital with the real one in Brazil.
454.”Much better idea than AWS.”
Ted, sometimes it pays to offer up the least best option.
467 - Didn’t Tessa Jowell resign from her marriage to spend more time with her career?
I wonder if Tessa (gosh you found all the money to pay off the mortgage, Darling) Jowell is going to be unavailable for comments.
Its funny that Wales is now more tory than under the Welsh Michael Howard.
463 lack of investment by central government, due to their being nowhere to go through from Norfolk - the only real issues are the single carrigageway sections of the A47 and the single carriageway part of the A11 at Elveden, the Norwich/Ipswich road is irrelevant as there is no economic need for a dualled road link with a mainline rail link connecting the two.
466 Dyed Woollie - just following on from the earlier Redcar example
466.edeyrn, thanks for that reply. I have read about this Welsh connection with Wallace and the area before, but was not too sure of my facts on it.
476 hokay! Fenland = Cromwell country *shudder*
Forget Mills, what about Abrahams?
466. Furthermore who ever said Lembit was safe…I would not be too sure, he is a funny man but his antics may not go down too well with the ‘conservative’ rural electorate here. Rumours are from the west of the constituency have turned against and with local elections showing this trend against lib dems but as said I can not add anything to this.
So Lembit will likely hold but by no means certain. We could plausibly have him losing his seat while Brecon with a much slimmer lib dem majority holds.
Btw. THe start of the thread was a good discussion roughly related to this and Soutn west etc but why did Tim persistently drag it completely off course with totally irrevelant posts repeatively?
Nothing wrong with off topic posts as I have done but it came out of nowhere LOL
bbc trying to claim that the Czechs are going to ratify the Lisbon Treaty. It is being reviewed by Czech Constitutional Court today.
Tim must have been moonlighting for BBC news.
465 Norfolk’s road casualties are AWFUL - listen to traffic reports and you’ll hear the A47 mentioned almost as often as the M25.
The roads are full of tractors and bends so drivers get frustrated and BANG.
Their traffic policing target when I was there was *only* 480ish ‘killed or seriously injured’ that year. Terrible waste of life.
480 - Thanks for that. (It was I, who said Lembit would be safe based on the 2005 notionals)
Very sharp post there by SeanT @459. I wouldn’t be sure that the EU president will usually on the right, but it’s certainly very plausible.
More to the point, it’s hard to tell how this stuff is going to pan out. It that wasn’t long ago that the British parties’ ‘phile and ‘phobe positions were reversed, and Europe looked like a barrier to socialism in Britain. Then the left thought German-style corporatism was the future for a while, and we’ve just had a financial crisis that could well shuffle the deck in ways that we can’t yet predict.
The parties (and their fans) are making a mistake in looking at this through a short-term domestic prism. They should be concentrating on getting the institutions right, rather than trying to play the system for minor tactical advantages that will probably only last a few years.
@465:
Sarkozy has already said that merging the Presidents of the Council and Commission under one elected office is the next logical step.
Given the lack of democratic oversight at present, it might even be one we’d support.
It’s not at all clear how one person would build a demos in 27 member states, or what electoral system we’d use, mind.
480. Montgomery might be one of the extra Tory gains of 2014 which I speculated about yesterday; it looks a big heave to win in one go.
465. I have been thinking about this a lot.
It seems to me that with the signing of the Lisbon Treaty a kind of European superstate will come into existence. And we will be in it.
I loathe the fact that this has happened without the consent of the people, and I am sure the grotesque deception will come back to haunt europhiles, especially the British left.
Remember when the Treaty was just a “tidying up exercise” according to europhiles? Now we learn, from the same people, that it creates “the second most powerful man in the world”. Tut.
Nonetheless this has happened and pragmatically, now, the only answer is to make Europe WAY more democratic. Elect the president, elect the foreign minister, elect the commission, have parliament sit in all the European capitals, televise Council of Minister meetings, debate everything. Blah blah.
If it has to happen eventually, and it does, and it will, then let’s hurry up and do it.
The upside of this is that the people are more rightwing than the elite. We will end up with a more rightwing Europe than we have now.
OK now I have to go the Chinese embassy to get my visa. China! Now there’s a proper democratic superstate, with real elections to a genuine presidency.
oh and I forgot Norfolk is flat and thus quite boring to look at day in day out
431 Thank you for the link
I do like the Mail. I find it easily the most bias-free member of the MSM. Especially in relation to immigration issues. Please continue to keep us abreast of its latest thinking.
482 It is actually the areas just over the borders that are worse - the A47 between King’s Lynn and Peterborough and the A17 from KL to Newark are bad.
466. I will not deny I am one of the masters of the ‘typo’ and missing out words. Too many thoughts at one time makes Jack a bad writer :X
478. I always heard these … er … unwholesome practices being spoken of in connection with Lincolnshire, rather than Norfolk.
487, ooh, I had fun getting my Chinese visa. The staff member didn’t speak any English. Luckily I had a Chinese chap with me to assist.
488 Norfolk is not flat, ridiculous miconception by Noel Cowerd.
The far west is flat into Fenland, the rest is gently rolling (low) hills.
@487:
One of the interesting contradictions about China is that it has more democratically elected positions per capita than most democracies.
The PRC sees frequent elections as a way to stave off demands for democracy, and it broadly works.
China’s Parliament, the NPC, has nearly THREE THOUSAND delegates.
491.edeyrn, I am the same.
We need Lembit Opik to stay as an MP as a wider deterrent for voters to generally not vote Lib Dem. Sacrifice Montgomeryshire and save the country!!
We also then have the added bonus that the topic of asteroid collision remains at the top of the political agenda which may or may not be important due to future events but at least Lembit could say he told us all so when we are wiped out in a future collision
489,Certainly will sunshine
Sorry this is so long but several posters mentioned ereaders.
Thinking of asking for an eBook reader….
In the absence of intel, I’ll just go for the international Amazon Kindle.
by Martin Coxall October 27th, 2009 at 9:44 am
Martin when we last discussed this seanT went off and bought one I think but I don’t know which he bought.
At the time I was a strong advocate of using my iPhone and that still works well and there are masses of material available. I use Fictionwise as they are well priced and a good range.
Technology has moved on since then of course and there are new products about and I am now thinking of buying an e-reader and have been researching hard.
There are several cheaper versions, such as Cooler, but all of them, including the Kindle and Sony have restricted book formats and versions they will accept.
Kindle is a lock-in to Amazon as it has a specific ebook version it uses, and only Amazon sell in that format. And despite the spin the Amazon list is not that good currently and books and machine have to be bought from the US Amazon site and they tend to put a hefty extra charge on purchases if you are outside the USA.
The KIndle uses 3G connections which is attractive as in the US it gives access to blogs and newspapers and Wiki. But not in the UK where internet access is much more limited. There are no extra charges for using 3G for book purchase.
Kindle have a new DX version which has a much bigger screen. But, I feel, so what? See this review.
http://www.pcpro.co.uk/reviews/ebook-readers/352765/amazon-kindle-international
I am currently looking favourably on the Sony 300 or 600, both of which you down books to your computer and then the ereader, although there is a new Sony due in December which has 3G connectivity.
Sony use the Epub format as well as their own and pdf. Waterstones, Borders, W H Smith and many more offer books that work on the Sony and Sony also have their own bookstore.
The 300 is cheaper and simpler but without any annotation possible nor slots for cards nor music as you read. It has a 5 inch screen where the others including the Kindle 2 and Sony 600 have 6 inch screens.
Then there is the Sony touch which has it all except 3G connectivty but not as good a screen and cost more than the Kindle or Sony 300. I am tending to the Sony 600. The 505 is still available and has benefits to put it between the 300 and 600 but downsides too.
See this review:
http://www.pcpro.co.uk/reviews/ebook-readers/352564/sony-reader-touch
Best prices I have found are the Touch at £229.
480. To add to the electoral prospect of Lembit in Montgomeryshire.
There has been a recent trend at locals for independent candidadtes (many are conservative in views) to be elected here. Its such a interesting place as its one of the few places in which independents on the council are the majority.
490 - Most rural areas have a lower accident rate but a higher fatality rate as the collisions happen at a higher speed.
You’ll find a lot of Motorcycle deaths due to overtaking and head on collisions which you get less of in areas with more dual carriageways and motorways.
Great day for NuLab haters such as myself, the airbrushed report confirming what Londoners already knew about foreign mafia flooding the city(Albanians now run 75% of Soho vice) and now poor old Tessa confirmed as a Mafia Wife. HA HA HA.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23761212-blairs-think-tank-airbrushed-link-between-crime-and-immigrants.do
493. Getting a Chinese Visa is ridiculously easy, efficient and smooth.
You make an appointment on line, download the form online.
Then you go to the gleaming new office (10 minutes stroll from my flat), you queue for no time at all (literally), you have a five second interview - and then a nice man tells you to come back in three days and pick up yer visa.
That’s it. So much for the wary and officious communist enemy. I wish British bureaucracy was as competent and sleek.
495 I hear you-but 3000 legislators for a population of c.1.3 BILLION does not seem that high a level of representation-if you look at,for example the UK parliament/population ratio,or the US Houses ratio to their population,then China does not seem so well off after all
491. thanks
IF alyn and deeside fell to the tories which is not out of the question, that could kill off labour in North Wales for a wee while.
503 whats does he ask in the 5 second interview?
502,thanks for that,489 will the london evening standard do
477. humph - I posted it first, see 425:-)
466. Pedantry, but Y Goddodin was written in the Edinburgh area, not Strathclyde (yup, Edinburgh was originally a Welsh city…), still Yr Hen Ogledd though.
435. “It’s an interesting question as to what extent the Strathclyde Wealhas would have considered themselves different from those living in modern Wales, Cornwall and pockets of England”
Quite. They probably all considered themselves British in the original meaning of the word, not the modern one. (I have a reproduction of the very first Welsh-English dictionary dated ca. 1685 in which the title page renders “Cymraeg” as “British” and “Welsh” interchangeably.)
NEW THREAD
503 I see you are also an expert on RTA statistics.
Golly, that’s impressive.
Where do you find the time? My time management is clearly not as sharp as yours given your farming, school governing, young family, NHS swine flu preparations, MMR, EU micro politics, media monitoring commitments
459 seanT thank you for calling me scum last night - very kind of you.
I usually agreed with lots of your posts but now I won’t give you any more credit.
You realise the UK will never leave the EU - I’ve been saying that for ages as there is not enough political will to leave.
The EU will become more democratic for the reasons you state and will change between left-right governments.
Will you become less hostile to the EU if we get the chance to elect the President? Well there are plenty of democratic imbalances in the UK (devolution, WLQ etc) but once the EU treaty is fully ratified what happens to the national governments of each member state. Will the UK be split up into England, Scotland, Wales, NI as there are currently too many government layers.
Who will be allowed to vote in future Euro elections. Will national governments exist or will they be downgraded into municipal regions? There will be massive changes coming our way.
456 You wouldn’t want to to Church there. It’s not so much a case of *Who* you’d be worshipping as *What* would be worshipping alongside you.
466.damn typos, but typoed Gododdin LOL, that was smooth……
499. I have a Sony Reader. It’s absolutely effing brilliant and I couldn’t live without it. It is as splendid in its unexpected usefuless as my first iPod.
To my surprise I don’t use it THAT much for reading books. Though it is very nice to know that anywhere I go in the world I have 100 books in my bag in a device smaller and sleeker than a paperback (I have a fear of running out of reading material).
I use it mainly for two things:
1. downloading British and American newspapers anywhere in the world. It has already paid for itself easily, this way. When I went abroad in the olden days I used to shell out major quids for imported Brit newspapers. Now I just download them, on to the Reader, for free, anywhere with a Net connection. Instantly. Fab.
I also use it for reviewing my own work. The Reader accepts RTF. So I save my novels-in-progress in RTF, move them on to the Reader, then I can read them AS IF THEY WERE ALREADY PRINTED BOOKS. Its hugely helpful, editorially. And there’s no more tedious messy and expensive printing. I can see how my work would look when published, in the middle of a desert.
Buy the Sony Reader! Or the Kindle.
503 – It’s not the getting into China that is the difficult part…it’s the getting out.
Keep the one eyed snake tucked away.
On ConHome Tim Montgomerie back tracks on his opposition to Cameron’s all women shortlists by claiming Cameron said something slightly different this morning and has done a U-turn.
Well I heard both, Tim, and there was not an iota of difference in meaning between the statements. But I do understand that you were feeling a bit of a prat going so catatonic about what you thought he said to the Commons committee. Amazingly you can’t give a quote to support his view.
Try and calm down Tim M, oh, and please do stop saying your surveys represent members opinions. You know they don’t.
@516:
I can see what Tim’s saying: there’s a clear difference between an all-women shortlist and a shortlist that just so happens to only have women on it.
Lembit’s views on asteroids hitting the earth are very rational and mainstream science supports them I do not understand why he is lampooned so much because of them:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/2148734.stm
I think people who criticise Lembit are also secretly somewhat envious of his lifestyle:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/lostinshowbiz/2009/oct/16/lembit-opik-latest-good-friend
thanks random there, the thing about Wales was right up to 1930s depression there was a far stronger sense of identity and connection with the legends and stories and there was amongst welsh speakers a deep seated belief one day the welsh could reunite Britain again. The throning of the tudors was deemed by many to fulfill this prophecy but when nothing good came out of it for the welsh culturally (though more politically and economically stable maybe) the prophecy was though not to have occured.
Y LLoegr = england in Welsh it means ‘the lost land’ roughly translated.
So point of this blurb is while scots nationalists want scotland to its self, I believe that the welsh are more happy to be on a united island but probably would like the advancement of their culture more. I have met welsh who don’t have strong views towards independence but feel forced to go down that route due to the believed threat to the welsh culture. I could be wrong especially noaways when a lot of people in my area have moved in and the first language english are deprived of being taught much welsh culture while the welsh speakers are completely immersed :X