Is “fighting big government” going to resonate?
October 9th, 2009
Or has Cameron provided the ammunition for Labour?
The critical element about party leaders’ big conference speeches ahead of general elections is that they define the big message that will be put to the voters and the core proposition on which they will be asking the public to vote for them.
Several of the papers this morning pick out the Cameron approach to big government and the state as their view of the over-arching theme and, indeed, the way they have filtered what was said could influence the manifesto.
So are “tearing down big government” or declaring “war on the state” ideas that that will resonate with the electors or has Cameron provided the target for a Labour party trying to define its own approach to the coming battle.
Fighting “big government” and “the state” work well with things like personal freedom and ID cards but what does it mean for the range of services that we have come used to getting from government?
For whenever Cameron defends, say, state education or taxpayer funded health-care he could be attacked for not really believing the post war consensus that this is what governments should be doing. He talks passionately about the NHS - yet he leaves himself wide open to the charge that he doesn’t support the central premise that makes this possible - big government.
The Labour-supporting Guardian summed it up like this: “..If the test of this conference was whether the Conservatives sharpened up their definition then they passed easily. But the more there is to see, the more there is to question. The government and the opposition believe in two very different futures for the state. Mr Cameron was admirably honest about that yesterday. Labour must find the strength to take him on.”
Roll on Friday May 7th 2010 - the day after the likely election date.
Mike Smithson
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First.
you were 1st.
It’s a clear theme, and the theme of a man looking for a second term before he’s won his first. Yellow Submarine put it well when he commented on George Osborne’s speech that this was a Keynesian counter-cyclical move with votes:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/10/06/hows-this-going-to-go-down-with-59-year-olds/#comment-1249252
This is something similar. At the risk of losing some seats, David Cameron is seeking a mandate to do what he wishes to do. I’m not sure I subscribe to it, but it’s politically brave and clever. It does rather rest on the assumption, however, that the first election is basically won.
I think that the target is not only right but quite probably also popular. However, I think that the methods that are being put forward are unlikely to acheive the goals that are being claimed for them.
The policy of freezing individual compensation- as opposed to capping the total wage bill- is one that takes away any chance of streamlining or reforming the public sector. Managers will not be able to create performance incentives and given that the implict trade off for accepting a freeze is “you keep your job”, they will not be able to get rid of those that underperform. It is a recipe for an underperforming and deeply inefficient public sector. The mediocre or the lazy will stay in place, but quality staff will move on as soon as they can.
I almost thought when Osbornes speech was said to be “brave” that he had lifted the script of Yes Minister, but what Cameron is doing is, I think, to shoot at the right target, but with the wrong weapon.
Its a phrase specifically chosen to be nebulous and as such it gives ammunition or not depending on what the punter wishes to tale from it.
Its at least as targeted at the Thatcherites in his own party as anyone else who don’t quite realise they face a MacMillan type leader with a tight group at the top of the party having an agenda they don’t understand or agree with.
Here’s some help for them.
http://www.newstatesman.com/society/2009/02/red-tory-blond-liberal
The danger for Labour is if they (as Brown surely will) also fail to understand it and launch an eighties style attack on “Thatcherism”
It will resonate with traditional conservatives, Thatcherites and libertarians, and anyone who thinks they pay too much tax. And the nanny state encroaching on our lives is something which even friends of mine on the Left would admit is an issue. It will help Cameron deliver his core vote. However you are right: it will probably be the second plank of the Labour Party attack line, after the toff/Latvian SS/Polish homophobe/foxhunting smears.
But it is a good position to start from: the Tories can point out that they will be better than Labour at spending cuts because they do not inherently believe that the State is better at deciding what to spend your money on than you are. And Brown has effectively agreed with the position that a lot of public spending is unnecessary and low-priority, as he has said it is exactly these things that will be cut.
4 You are assuming that the “freeze” will be on individual salaries, rather than a 0% cap an paybill increases. Osborne also said that it would save 150,000 jobs, not that it would stop redundancies, nor that existing bonus pots could not be used, nor that individual performance increases couldn’t be earned.
In recent years there has been a cap of 2% on paybill increases, this hasn’t stopped individual awards being often much higher than that, and non-consolidated bonuses have been used, as the “bonus pot” can generally, under Treasury ruiles, be rolled forward from the previous year and count as zero cost (unless you increase it).
The Dannatt mistake is playing big in the media today as well.
Uncharcteristic misstep by Cameron this one.
[4] - The policy of freezing individual compensation- as opposed to capping the total wage bill
Is that really what Osborne has proposed? It looks petty and vengeful.
There was a talking head on the radio recently who said that a problem in the public sector was that people were not rewarded for their performance.
In the private sector pay freezes tend to be used when a company is in financial difficulties - ie performing badly - but in the public sector the proposal is to apply them across the board. Well performing organisations will be punished.
Previously the Tories had been quite canny about this sort of thing - the council tax proposal to give money to councils that kept tax increases below 2.5%, so that then they could freeze council tax, is a great example of the politics of incentives. Where’s the incentive if it is a pay freeze across the board?
Isn’t that the moronic, the-centre-knows-best approach of Brown and Blair?
4. Good point Cicero. I suspect you are right that an individual cap is not the best strategy (though you have I think over-estimated the strength of the recruitment market - where are these public sector employees going to go?)
However, it is clear that Cameron wants to continue to make a virtue of honesty, and to defuse the 2014 charge that he smarmed his way to victory and then ruthlessly swung the axe.
This week the conservatives have drawn a clear contrast between themselves and Labour, in acknowledging that the crisis in the public finances cannot be resolved without a considerable amount of collective and individual pain. They have made it clear how had this is going to be.
In my view this is infinitely preferable to the Govt’s approach of pretending that making deficit reduction a legal obligation is somehow an end of itself.
Tucked away in Hugo Rifkind’s column in the Times is a very interesting observation on the Conservative party conference:
“To the Conservative Party conference in Manchester this week. Have you ever been to a really swanky London nightclub? One where everybody runs around trying to spot famous people, but never manages because they are all hidden away in some secret VIP room that you wouldn’t get into, and can’t ever find anyway? Imagine that, but with the lights turned on, and with lots of stalls saying things like “Conservative Friends Of People With Pets That Have Bowel Cancer” instead of a bar. That’s basically how it was.
I’ve been to a party conference in Manchester before. Labour, last year. Oozing with Cabinet ministers. Couldn’t move for them. Sit down at a table for more than three minutes, and John Prescott would turn up, munching a pie. The Tory conference wasn’t like that at all. No mingling. Aside from Liam Fox, who was getting frisked, you only really saw frontbenchers out in the hall when they were making furious beelines for somewhere else. This is not, I kept thinking, a political party preparing itself for power. It is seven or eight people preparing themselves for power, who are all constantly terrified that everybody else is about to cock it up.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/hugo_rifkind/article6866934.ece
[10] - where are these public sector employees going to go?
Even in a situation such as now, when unemployment is going up, there will be a certain amount of churn, and experienced, skilled people will be able to find jobs, in some sectors.
OT and apologies.
I just took my first look at Robert Smithson’s VIPA and it has blown my tiny mind.
Having read Rod Crosby’s theories for the last couple of years, I find it not at all surprising and in a way commendable that they hurl so much abuse at each other.
As a bias I prefer VIPA to SWINGBACK but this is extreme stuff from Robert.This is Martin Luther v the Holy Roman Empire and we await the outcome of the titanic struggle with bated breath.
I think it is great that they insult each other’s intelligence.We bystanders should not join in.
To an extent Cameron is making the best of the cards he has, faced with need to reduce spending significantly, something no Government since end of WWII has had to do, means shrinking the State. It helps that it aligns with the philosophy of a party that believes in individual responsibility and market choices.
Labour I think recognises that the State will shrink, we have talk from them of cutting non-essential services or activities, of privatising agencies of increasing private participation in NHS & education but all those measures go against its central philosophy so in reaction there are ever more detailed targets and guarantees set at the centre to manage the delivery of services, over which the state otherwise has less and less control. The Man in Whitehall still knows best in Labour eyes.
11 - Exactly. Hence the Grayling cock up.
The seven or eight?
Cameron, Osborne, Gove, Hilton, Coulson, (Hague? Pickles? Finkelstein?)
Although its probably a wise strategy looking at the shadow cabinet.
I expect there will be a zero percent uplift for inflation, with some money for performance awards as long as it is targeted to good performers (some departments give performance awards to everyone who isn’t a “fail” which rather negates the point).
There is also the point that most performance awards in the public sector are far too small to actually motivate anyone, although they do serve to p!ss people off by being unfair and random. As public sector managers generally refuse to do performance management properly.
Apart from middle and senior managers of course, I’d say those earning over £40K, where there is a self-perpectuating circle-jerk of every increasing salaries, which is one of the things that needs to be stopped, frankly.
15 - I thought you’d like that snippet. Now to disappoint you, in the midst of the Telegraph’s utterings of ecstasy about David Cameron’s speech, Jeff Randall has recanted his previous scepticism about David Cameron, meaning one of your favourite quotations is now out-of-date:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/6274948/Ive-changed-my-mind-about-David-Cameron—he-has-what-it-takes.html
“When I first met Mr Cameron, I would not have bet a bent Zimbabwean dollar to win a king’s ransom that he had what it took to become prime minister. After yesterday’s performance, I’m prepared to be proven wrong.”
17 - I’ve never taken anything Jeff Randall has to say seriously.
Fighting big government will resonate because there are so many examples which can be found where government is unneccessary, intrusive or excessively costly.
Defending big government will resonate because it provides jobs, protection and security.
And there we have the principal battleline for the election. Victory will go to the side most believed and trusted.
6
“… the nanny state encroaching on our lives is something which even friends of mine on the Left would admit is an issue.”
The recent Politics Home poll found 79% of us think that ‘the state has too much say over what we can and cannot do.’
(I loved all the ‘Big Government is bad’ stuff in Mr C’s speech
)
Back on topic, one of the things to watch is what impact this speech will have on Labour’s internal politics. We have seen the polls close a bit as Labour’s support has risen. The Guardian has taken the “big intellectual disagreement” route with David Cameron’s speech, not just in the editorial but also in Martin Kettle’s column (I suspect he wrote both):
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/oct/08/cameron-speech-cuts-deficit-osborne
The final sentence of this article may be the most significant:
“An energised Labour party, under an effective leader, could do the Tories a lot of damage right now.”
Is there the will in the Labour party to find an effective leader to challenge this philosophy? As the King once told us, it’s now or never.
18
More fool you then Tim.
The clear-up in Manchester is proceeding well. As I left work last night, a fleet of trucks and personnel were descending on the area; I arrived this morning to find barely a trace of evidence that a major political conference has been on all week.
If only clearing up after Labour could be so quick and painless…
“For whenever Cameron defends, say, state education or taxpayer funded health-care he could be attacked for not really believing the post war consensus that this is what governments should be doing.”
Not at all. Neither state education nor the NHS rely on big government. Indeed as Cameron pointed out yesterday, good state education and the NHS are hindered, not helped by unwanted interference by central government.
Just because something is facilitated by the state does not mean that every aspect of it has to be centrally controlled and directed. If Cameron can loosen the centralising tendency then he will do much to improve state provision of services.
18.
Tim,
Get back in your dustbin !
25
Wayne
Stop bullying tim.
He’s one of the poorest of our society taxed at 96%..That nice Mr Cameron said we should help them..
Remember over the next 3 to 4 months inflation could start to rise quite dramatically as the drops in prices from last yr start to roll off the index.
What then?
John Redwood has written a peice this morning where he reiterated what i heard him say at a fringe meeting on Tuesday,mainly that interest rates are going to have to and will rise by a reasonable amount soon.
He made the other point that it is no coincidence that the PSBR is around £175bn this year which by a strange coincidence totally matches the amount of QE put in by the bank of England.
This is why the Govt and Bof E are so frightened about turning off the tap for to do so would cause bond rates to rise appreciably higher than they are already.
Scary stuff
17
When I first met Mr Cameron, I would not have bet a bent Zimbabwean dollar to win a king’s ransom that he had what it took to become prime minister. After yesterday’s performance, I’m prepared to be proven wrong.”
Or Right!
Wow. The lefty response is really quite bitter isnt’t it? Your cosy PC world of taxpayer funded nonsense is finally to going to come to an end. What will the quango chiefs and baby sitting licence officers do now?
Mike the answer to your question is absolutely YES.
The thoughtless, arrogant, bullying encroachment of the state into every corner of our lives is behind most of what ails this country.
The lefty love of the state blinds them to its inefficiencies and weaknesses and unintended consequences. Does wanting to get value for money out of public spending make the Tories bad? Tim will say yes. I will say no.
It is to Dave’s credit that he is very clear that the state will continue to support and care where it needs to. The NHS will still be free – just more efficiently run. Education budgets will be going to schools more than to LEAs. Etc. etc. Dave said pretty unequivocally that he will nurture the state – just make it smaller and kill off its loonier disincentives. I for one believe him. Big does not equate to good or to good value. Those who heard something else just weren’t listening.
It is clear that spending departments will have to find genuine meaningful cuts whoever gets elected. It is also abundantly clear that only the Tories offer a reasoned managerial approach to protecting front line services and cutting the bureaucracy, consultants, box tickers, hangers on, outreach co-ordinators and the whole panopoly of well intended crap that Labour have hung around their necks.
Do Labour promises to remove waste and spend efficiently have any credibility whatsoever? No. Can anyone honestly see Brown simplifying the tax and benefits system or winding in the payroll vote? Surely not.
The next GE will be an epochal, direction setting choice. Labour big government with all the attendant borrowing, waste, squalor and nannying – followed soonish thereafter with a trip to the IMF. Or – Conservative retrenchment of the state and a genuine attempt to reform education, the welfare state, responsibility and reward for effort.
It seems a ‘no brainer’ to me.
Look - it is all very, very simple.
Cameron has set out his position. If enough people like it or believe in it then he will win. If people are stupid enough to believe Gordon’s drivel then Gordon will win and in a further 12 months there will be either a revolution or another election when the economy collapses under Gordon’s prolonged indebtedness.
Gordon’s continuous spending is only designed to get him to the election. Whoever wins will have to cut spending or face a default on debt. Foreign creditors have made it quite clear that they are preparing for Cameron and that Gordon’s policy of “Spend! Spend! Spend!” will not be tolerated.
On an additional point, the private sector is still shrinking like crazy and the public sector is still growing like topsy. Since all the money to fund the public sector comes from the private sector does anyone with even half a brain seriously imagine that this scenario is maintainable?
Cameron has to win, for the sake of the country, but it would be better for the Tories if Labour won. Whoever is in charge after the next election is in for a very, very, very bad time. I could tolerate a further 12 months of Labour if it guaranteed their total extermination.
28. Becoming PM and being successful at the job are two different things, not least because the former will be indisputable after the election if the Tories win whereas the latter can be argued about for as long as anyone wants.
However, as far as the betting goes, I’m just interested in him becoming the next PM and am pretty confident on that. I disagree with antifrank at [21] - it’s not now or never, we’re already past that point. To replace Brown now would just look like Labour had been panicked into it after the conference season. The last chance to do it in an organised manner was over the Summer; there’s no window of opportunity between now and the election.
When the Stock Market climbed to 5000 in about ‘04 Jeff Randall told his readers to get out-the market was about to collapse! When it climbed to over 6700 over the next few years he said it would go through the roof! Cameron-hero to zero to hero .
But you’ve got to compliment him on keeping his job.
on QT: Osborne did well. Cooper got destroyed. Stuart Rose appeared to say almost nothing of value, which makes me wonder why he bothered appearing.
Nice to see there are still a few moronic class warriors around, in the audience.
the world’s financial markets will not allow the ever rising debt levels that prevail under Labour.if you want double digit interest rates you know where to put your cross come May 2010.
Plenty of ammunition. I just worry whether Labour have the marksmen to use it.
I sincerely hope that they now get a strategist to take advantage of the hostages to fortune that the Tories have laid down. Labour’s USP should trump everything-but they’ve got to know how to play it.
35
What USP would that be?
nobel update:
After yesterday’s news that the Nobel Prize for Literature went to massive ante-post gamble Herta Muller (50/1 into 3/1), I will be most displeased if Wei Jingsheng is announced as Peace Prize winner today.
27 I have a bit of soft spot for John Redwood but here he is wrong.
Pretty unlikely that interest rates will rise to combat inflation. I have this funny feeling there will be a bit of fiscal tightening to do the trick…
I work in the NI civil service and I see serious waste everyday in staff who are just there to make up the little empires of middle managers and who do absolutely nothing all day and in shambolic IT and “reform” programmes which just make everything more bureaucratic and go way over budget. I suspect that a lot of frontline professional staff like me will welcome Cameron’s speech if it means getting rid of the pen pushers!
Still laughing about QT last night! The look on Mrs Balls” face! Maybe Hislop should present one of the TV debates?!
If Poles kill Jews it isn’t as big a crime as when the Russians and Germans do it.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/tories-eu-ally-poland-should-not-apologise-for-killing-jews-1799950.html
I’m sure all of those murdered Jews will be pleased to know it.
36. That they aren’t ‘Tories’.
33. Ah yes the Ginger tw@t who thought that taxing the richest 2% would close a £80 billion deficit, ah bless!
Teather might as well not have been there!
41 - This is not 1997, surely it is the other way round now, the Tories USP is that they are not Labour.
Coldstone @ 40 - that is a pretty disgusting smear by you and the Independent article. Kaminski is NOT saying that! His point is that he objects to national apologies for crimes committed by individuals. A perfectly reasonable point.
The difference with Germany was that the whole state apparatus was set up to remove and murder Jews. That was emphatically not the case in Poland.
Kaminski’s pro-Jewish credentials stand up against almost anyone elses you could care to name and to continue to smear him as some on the left are still doing is despicable.
32. To be fair Roger a lot of people thought the period 2004-2005 would see the bubble pricked, unfortunately that didn’t happen and the plates were kept spinning until 2007-2008 with all the disastrous consequences that has entailed.
41
So its ‘Tories Eat Babies’ again is it? Lots of luck with that.
43. In Roger’s mind, we are still in 1997. Or perhaps even earlier…
What did Hislop say that affronted Mrs Balls ?
43 Spot on.
And the LibDems are “sort of” Labour. Bad place to be…
Amusing line by Finkelstein on Newsnight yesterday:
“There have been negotiations going on and Nick Clegg has agreed to a debate - with Vince Cable, to sort out their policy differences….”
42 Agree about Teather too. Given there was a ding-dong about IHT, has anybody got any idea what the LibDem position on IHT is? Teather gave no clues.
“The comedians Stephen Fry and Eddie Izzard had already increased the pressure on Mr Cameron”
No comment
40-Well we’ve had the “when Communists kill it isn’t as big a crime as when Nazis do it”.
44
Of course your absolutely right, the man is as pure as virgin snow: tut tut, how dreadful of me to think otherwise. Now where’s that scourge?
Nice work if you can get it………….
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1219012/Tory-councillor-claims-800-month-allowance-despite-month-extended-holiday-Australia.html
I thought QT last night just served further notice of how marginalised the Lib Dems are becoming.
Another notable feature of conference was the amount of fringe events on localism and i would urge every Conservative to read the Control Shift policy document.
It completely steals the Lib Dems clothes and indeed goes further than they ever would.
Excellent converage for Camerons speech in the papers, almost across the board. To get praise from the Guardian through to the Daily Mail is pretty unusual to say the least. If this isn’t the final piece of the jigsaw to getting Cam to Number Ten, I’ll be surprised.
21. They’re not going to change the leader, this whole “effective leader” shtick is designed to make Labour feel better when they lose. If the party can tell itself that it wasn’t Labour that deserved a thrashing, it was Gordon, they may be able to avoid a lot of crazy fighting after the defeat.
39, after my experiences in the civil service, I’ve long thought they need to reduce the number of tiers. Having twelve gives too much room for grade inflation, and helps push the top salaries up.
52. Is the day centre closed this week?
52. Seeing your story from the Mail I hope you didn’t miss this one.
Jack Jones, Soviet spy: Special investigation reveals how union boss sold secrets to the KGB for 45 years
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1218922/JACK-THE-TRAITOR-Special-investigation-reveals-Union-boss-sold-secrets-KGB-45-years.html
QT was hilarious - Hislop’s change of tack when his joke target didn’t work was telling.
I thought Osborne got about 80% of the talk-head time - it was very strange. At one point I thought Tether was about to defect - and that chappy in the audience who chopped Yvette down with that IHT line was a classic.
The game seems to have changed this week.
58. Teather always looks to me as if she should be handing out leaflets at some freshers’ event.
54
On the other hand.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/geraldwarner/100013031/dave-has-drifted-too-far-from-toryism-to-be-an-option-for-real-conservatives/
What a ‘REAL’ tory thinks.
59 She’d have to build up to that level of responsibility though…
59 She does! Speaking of Labour blaming their leader after the GE, the Newsnight Labour panel chap said they had no chance with Gordon in charge too.
58. I think it helped that Osborne has clearly improved his public performances, Hislop was sympathetic to the Tories (I’ve always had him down as a eurosceptic Conservative) and the guy from M&S seemed like he’d probably be a conservative as well, though oddly considering he was on a political show, he wouldn’t actually talk about politics. Cooper was kind of outnumbered three to one and as Tether is about as useful as a chocolate teapot, she wasn’t much help to Cooper either.
No change on the line market in the last two days, except Labour moving up just 1 seat.
Betfair - Next General Election - Party Seats Line
Con 355.5 - 362
Lab 203 - 206 (201 - 206 two days ago)
LD 48.5 - 51
SNP 12 - 14.5
PC 4.5 - 5.5
DUP 6.5 - 8
60
coldstone
Warner is a nutter. His view of Conservatism would have the Arcbish of Cantab saying prayers at every cabinet meeting, the Cabinet to include at least 3 bishops and bringing back hanging.
He was out of touch 30 years ago.
Good Morning Friends Of Rik W Voters For Nick Palmer Worldwide
Meanwhile …. I have to advise the avid reader(s) of JARHEAD that todays ‘cracking episode’ will be delayed in publication until this afternoon !!
60. Having to resort to posting columns from the Telegraphs extreme right wing commentators is sad. Of course Cam’s speech won’t have inspired absolutely everyone, but face facts, *most* of this mornings editorials are excellent for the Conservatives.
26.
Sorry - good point!
Tim,
You can stay out of your dustbin for as long as you like !
63
I thought Cooper was much better than previous talks on TV. She’s had lessons I suspect and her answers on Osborne’s wealth (we should allow anyone to stand irrespective) was sensible.
Both my apolitical wife and I were quite impressed. She was always going to be on a hiding.
60
What a real UKIPPER thinks.
63 I wish Osborne had come out a lot sooner about his dad’s business - it made the smears look very cheap and nasty.
And Hislop pushing Yvette into such a corner that she *had* to say that someone’s background and schooling was not a legitimate form of attack was a big hit - Dimbleby coincidentally having a damning quote from her doing exactly that was great.
My thoughts on two Labour Ministers getting a verbal smackdown: http://tinyurl.com/yjr5don
43. You underestimate the toxicity of the Tory brand. I’ve been listening to various vox pops and focus groups on the radio and TV recently and it’s extraordinary how much residual ill feeling and suspicion there is to the Tory brand. Without that Labour would be finished.
69. Really? I thought she was embarassingly out of her depth and made to look silly on a number of occasions.
The real surprise though was how sympatheic the audiance was to the Tories, considering inner Manchester is about as Labour as you’ll get. The audiance seemed pretty much split between Labour and Conservative to me, which like I say for somewhere like Manchester is/was very surprising.
60 Coldstone (and agreeing with madasafish at 65) Reading that Warner article in the Telegraph illustrates the reason why such a large % of ConHome readers think that the Telegraph is anti-Conservative.
It is stuffed full of people that are either pro-Labour or pro-UKIP. A very odd bunch at the Nuttygraph.
67
I’m amazed anyone cares, these speeches, whoever makes ‘em are just political theatre, and easily forgotten. There are only two that I remember, Thatcher’s, ‘Ladys not for turning’ and Kinnock’s, ‘Purging of the Militants’ the rest are out of memory within 48 hours.
You now have to question this whole party conference thing. Boring pointless and too long. Three days max: arrive on Sunday few drinks chat, speeches Monday/Tuesday leaders speech Wednesday home.
The Scottish Lib Dems are in a horrific mess. Parties cannot afford this type of civil war just 6 months out from a GE.
Tavish Scott’s jaicket is on a shoogly peg.
‘We’ll rethink opposition to referendum, say Lib Dems’
The probability of having a referendum on Scottish independence increased yesterday when it emerged that the Liberal Democrats plan to review their policy on the issue in a forthcoming conference.
It is understood that the Liberal Democrats fear that the likelihood of a Conservative victory in Westminster next year will fuel the SNP’s support in Scotland and there were calls to have a quick referendum to kill the issue off before then.
… an extra session being tagged on to a one-day Scottish policy conference on 30 October. The closed session will focus on the consequences of independence for Scotland, and how the party would fight a referendum campaign. In an e-mail to delegates, Mr Scott said: “The session will give members the opportunity to consider the issues and arguments around the SNP’s current proposals for an independence referendum.”
… Tory leader Annabel Goldie said the “spineless” Liberal Democrats were “once again proving unreliable and can’t be trusted with the Union“.
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/We39ll-rethink-opposition-to-referendum.5718573.jp
Auntie Annabel is licking her lips here: if the Scottish Lib Dems do support the Referendum Bill 2010 then the Scottish Tories are going to increase their already hefty inroads in Lib Dem seats (eg Roxburgh et al and Argyll & Bute) and Lib Dem target seats (eg. Edinburgh S, Edinburgh N&L and Aberdeen S).
Watch this story carefully, as it could open up value bets in several constituency markets.
60 - Coldstone, you posted that last night. Gerald Warner is one of those crazies who thinks that Sarah Palin is a credible politician, he’s on that UKIP pseudo libertarianish fringe and not exactly a credible figure.
You also posted that Douglas ‘Neocon supreme’ Murray didn’t like it, to similar effect. All you are doing is showing that Cameron is disliked by people who it’s best not to be liked by. Add Heffer and you have a perfect triumvirate of people who exemplify the sort of right that Cameron needs to run a million miles from.
52 - coldstone, maybe you missed the last para of that article:
“The new revelations come after neighbouring Lib Dem Councillor Philip Thompson, 27, moved 5,000 miles to study a PhD in Tucson, Arizona, in September last year without telling his constituents.”
Rik W claims that Kaminski’s “pro Jewish credentials” compare favourably to almost anybody’s.
What about those people seem to have avoided spending five years of their lives in an anti Semitic Neo Nazi political party Rik?
Nick Griffin is on next week’s QT isn’t he? Who else is up?
I’d like to see the Tories put up David Davis - working class background to appeal to BNP supporters, strong debater and big on civil liberties, which the BNP want to erode.
78 *Cue Latvian Waffen SS and Polish homophobes*
81 Next week is Alan Johnson, the week after is Straw and Griffin.
81. David Davis and Shami would be interesting against Griffin.
80 - tim, perhaps you should read what the Editor of the Jewish Chronicle has to say:
http://www.thejc.com/blogpost/david-milibands-insult-michal-kaminski-contemptible
84 And Trevor Phillips
63. I wouldn’t want to speak for Hislop but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he heartily disliked the EU, given that it is stuffed full of and run for the benefit of precisely the kind of corrupt scumbags the Eye goes after week after week. Almost all of whom cannot be removed by the public.
78. Glad someone else noticed that Geral Warner is “not exactly a credible figure”.
To use the vernacular, he is actually a total tube.
(According to marcia last night, that is what the electors of Glasgow NE are calling John Smeaton on the doorsteps, among other stronger language.)
83. Oooooooo…. Its Posite Al. The man Tim, Tyson and Rod have pinned all their hopes and dreams up. The man, by his own admission, thats NOT up to being PM?
I don’t know if people have already seen this, but it’s an amusing and interesting slant on the Tory conference:
There’s still a distinct Tory look: but it’s vastly altered in the past few years. “Have you noticed,” a parliamentary candidate says to me, “that all the mad people with bad suits have gone?” He thinks they’re all in UKIP now.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/lifestyle/article-23754094-the-women-who-built-brand-cameron.do
79
So! did I say he was unique…..I’m sure there are plenty of councillors of all parties who are up to something similar, no party has a monopoly on virtue.
I have “liked” an awful lot of what I have heard this week. Perhaps its simply because I acclimatised to the near certainity of a Conservative government a long time before most in my party and I’m much further along the bereavement curve. The Conservatives have been spared the 4th consecutive ahistoric defeat that would have stopped them being proper Tories in the same way 1992 killed the proper Labour party. One has to respect opponents and perhaps the happening of Cameron and the party’s pragmatism in embracing him shows the governing DNA is still replicating. They aren’t western Europes most successful election winning machine for nothing.
If we we must have a Conservative government then it might as well be a good one and from this week there are shafts of light.
However this is Political Betting not public therapy for distraught Left/Liberals so what is my concern.
Its almost as if Cameron has decided to roll the dice because he knows he only needs 1 to 5. To pinch Fraser nelsons phrase he has embraced his destiny as a “consequential Prime Minister”.
But the election isn’t won yet and what if he rolls a 6?
I’ve spent the week in the unproductive and unreconstructed Public Sector. Even for all the bile on here I’m not sure some right wing posters are in touch about quite how dependant a small core are on state employment. What its like if ( like me) you have never actually created a penny of wealth in your life.
The pay freeze thing has been like a nuclear grenade going off. ” We aren’t going to get our rise”. ” My petrol, food, kids etc ….”
” I didn’t F*** up the banks. why should I pay?”
And on its gone in environs where its usually only the X factor.
Overall I doubt its worth more than 0.5% to 1% of popular vote onto Labours core. But if I can work that out then I’m sure the Tory War room can.
So why do it? I come to the deeply perturbing conclusion that this guy is serious and he really has learned the lessons of the misused and mislaid Blair Landslides.
77. Stuart, if they do back it would that see the bill through?
83 And Decca Aitkenhead thought he wasn’t the sharpest tool in the box either. Her intv with him was ouch.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/sep/26/alan-johnson-labour-leadership-interview
Good Morning PBers.
Good front-pages for the Tories in the better papers I see, as for OGH question the answer is Yes imho. But it’s hardly a great surprise that the Tories are calling for smaller and less intrusive Government; after all it has been core to their political philosophy for quite some time now.
Will it resonate? Again Yes. Aided and abetted by a Labour Government that for the past twelve years has demonstrated admirably to the electorate what the realities of ‘Big Government’ actually means. Intrusive, Authoritarian, Corrupt and Expensive.
Even the Guardianistas are rejecting it if the CIF pages art anything to go by.
Yes, according to the people I’ve spoken to.
Hislop gives Cooper Balls a going over on QT (see part two):
Question Time October 8th.
And if anyone is interested this was a good speech. Could a Muslim be PM in the UK? Mohamed Nasheed, President of the Republic of Maldives – Conservative party conference, October 8th 2009.
73 Roger - You are 100% right on that. It is the only thing which is shoring up the Labour vote - pure, irrational anti-Tory prejudice.
It will dissipate in time in the face of reality, which is why Labour’s medium-term strategic position is in big danger.
If fighting big government means fighting against those who spy on our bins, those who want to deem us paedophiles for wanting to ferry other children to school unless we get a licence from the state, those who want to put personal details about us and our children on a database available to God knows who, those who want to interfere in our private childcare arrangements, those who want to have the right to march into our homes to see how we’ve improved it so that they can tax us more, those who want to track every call we make and email we send and every webpage we visit, those who want to know every detail of our holiday before we leave the country then - yes - it resonates with this voter and, I suspect (and hope) a whole load more.
78
Really! I’m sure your right, but they won’t go away, and they won’t be silenced, and when Cameron PM is in deep, deep trouble, they’ll be there stirring the pudding.
99 ‘they’ll be there stirring the pudding.’
You think or you hope?
I disgree with your analysis, Mike. Because the NHS is a national system, it does NOT need ‘big government’ to run it. If you scrap the ministerial tinkering, targets and hoop-jumping antics that Labour have instilled in the NHS, it could become a very patient-oriented and locally-driven system.
Do not confuse national coverage with ‘big government’ - they are entirely different things.
92 Spot on as ever - I think that’s why Osborne has gone for the ‘pay freeze’ to ’save 100 000 jobs line’.
It’d look really crappy and selfish to argue you’d rather have a rise then a colleague lose their job.
The change of tune in the private sector last year on this issue showed some really impressive willingness to share the pain through short-time working/wage cuts to keep places like JCB alive.
92 - Yellow Submarine, I agree with your final paragraph. This is a man who wants to be in power for years, doing what he thinks is the right thing to do. The next election is shaping up to be a sea change election.
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
Poor old Tavish is now traipsing round supposedly rock-solid “safe” Lib Dem seats like North East Fife (LD maj 12,571), trying to shore up the dissolving LD vote!
They must be piling on the pressure on he who “smells of wee” to persuade him to not stand down at the next GE. Cos without an incumbency advantage NE Fife starts to look very vulnerable.
Which turns thoughts to that other supposedly “rock-solid safe” Scottish Lib Dem bastion: Edinburgh West.
99
coldstone
Of course they will still be there. Just like Militant was after Kinnock tore them to bits.
There are loons in all parties. In most cases, they have little influence. In Labour they become Party Leader.
101 There are about 1400 people in the DoH - as someone who worked there - I’d say quite a lot marking other people’s homework or creating 500 page policy documents that 5 people then read.
83. My mistake. Do you know who else is up against Alan Johnson?
85
On the other hand.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/oct/09/jewish-leaders-question-conservatives
100
They’ll be there, they always are, ‘The Keepers of the Flame’
those with a mission, those who are always the first to cry, ‘Betrayal’ you can count on it.
106. If you really want to see inactivity, a bit of time spent in various County Halls is the thing.
107 Dimbleby didn’t say - it’s in London I think, Griffin is in Hull.
Yippe, Yellow Submarine is back! Where on earth have you been? Far too many donkeys around here. We need more stallions in the PB paddock.
The building blocks of society are family, neighbourhood and community, linked by spontaneous acts of social responsibility through institutions such as charities, churches, schools, voluntary organisations and councils. When a centralised state intervenes it corrodes these benevolent local arrangements with its apparatus of force and surveillance, undermining social responsibility without actually replacing it. This is why, in many parts of Britain, society is broken, and it is why people who have never before voted Convervative will give Cameron the benefit of the doubt. At least he appears to have identified the problem, even if some remain doubtful about his ability to solve it.
What struck me about DC’s speech is how American it was. An hour or so long, lots about him, his family, his feelings, his commitment, his hopes for the country - and absolutely nothing about anything concrete that he would do.
That’s actually quite difficult - try speaking about politics for an hour without saying anything that you favour doing. Tony’s conference speeches used to be a bit like that, but they’d always contain a few concrete elements, which one could support or attack but which gave the speech ballast. (Gordon goes too far the other way - here are 11 things we’ve done, here are 11 things we’ll do next.)
As a holding operation to avoid losing votes and sounding generally PM material it was OK. As a speech to prepare people for what he had in mind it was a missed opportunity, and I wouldn’t think any immediate bounce will linger for long.
11. “It is seven or eight people preparing themselves for power, who are all constantly terrified that everybody else is about to cock it up.”
So that’ll be three or four more people than were running the show in 1997 for New Labour: TB, PM, AC, (GB at a stretch).
Surely the valid comparison is with the New Labour conference in 1996 and how accessible Mandelson was to the troops on the conference floor.
105
You can’t compare the, ‘Left’ particularly militant, with the Right of the Tory party. The Left by ‘97 were a broken reed, the Right are: vibrant, well supported, and with a deep belief in their own, errrr rightness.
104 Stuart D. So when your great leader visits “rock solid” SNP seats for any reason it’s because the SNP vote is “dissolving”.
You’ll have to do much, much better than that Stu !!
109 I *worked* with a woman who played the Equal Ops card with aplomb.
She didn’t do more than 3hrs of work a week - regularly used to sit at her desk in front of a blank PC screen. Yup a BLANK screen.
And then was off sick at least twice a week. In the time I was there - she had 146 sick in one year!!!
It must have been SO BORING - clocking up flexitime by daydreaming her life away sat in a cubicle.
24. Richard “Just because something is facilitated by the state does not mean that every aspect of it has to be centrally controlled and directed.”
I heard a speech yesterday from the former heard of Manchester City Development making exactly this point.
In the 1890’s Manchester Corporation bailed out the bankrupt ship canal, allowing completion of the project and the subsequent explosion of wealth.
In the 1930’s, the council funding building a bigger runway at the airport than Liverpool, enabling the subsequent explosion of travel (and revenue)
Now they are planning a digital infrastructure to enable the next explosion of new business and regeneration.
State funding is an enabler. State control is an inhibitor. The good folk of Manchester understand the concept.
Interesting how Dannatt said Cameron needed expert advice on defence. Hardly a ringing endorsement of Liam Fox.
I was amazed when a leading commentator told me he thought Fox would be a disastrous Defence Secretary. I suspect many others are worried whether he’s up to the job. But hey, the current bloke ain’t much cop either.
106 The MoD will provide a rich seam of savings. Any organisation that can produce a 2,400 page manual on document security is clearly due for some streamlining, and a few lessons in focused spending.
92, 103 YS, antifank - Quite so. I’ve been going on about this for a year at least. Yes, Cameron is serious. He means what he says, and has done so since he first became leader. Quite why the media took so long to wake up to this is a mystery to me - it’s all there in his speeches and interviews.
113 Nick P - Are you sure you got the right speech?
103. antifrank - “The next election is shaping up to be a sea change election.”
Indeed.
The dissolution of the Union is a sea-change right enough.
And poor old PM Call-me-Dave is going to have to go down in history as the last ever UK PM. A bit unfair, as it is not really his fault. The decline and fall of the British state is largely opus magnum of PM’s Attlee, Thatcher, Blair and Brown.
122 ‘113 Nick P - Are you sure you got the right speech?’
The message was heavily distorted, as he listened to it on Roger’s radio.
113-how American it was
At least he refrained at the pointing at the crowd and pretending to recognise someone.
Noticed DC came out with the touch button touchy feely quotes to mollify the gay-, climate change- and international aid- industries.
I also noticed he mentioned “referendum” but not “Lisbon”.
123. Stuart “poor old PM Call-me-Dave is going to have to go down in history as the last ever UK PM.”
Have you backed that assertion with cold, hard cash?
120
yes
I am unimpressed by Fox. He seems just like an unthinking Neocon: everything the US does is great.
I’m sure Liam Fox is confirmed in his role at Defence because it’s a safe place for a Conservative Prime Minister to put a dangerous rival. Can you imagine the havoc he could wreak in the DWP or the Home Office?
Good point Yellow Submarine - however the public sector finding outthe real state of the nation puts them 12 months behind private sector workers.
Also it will be Darling standing up to give the PBR in Novemember - pay freezes and cuts will come out of his mouth too and the dividing line is gone.
128. He may be confirmed, but that doesn’t erase the doubts about his ability.
129. The PBR is actually something of a potential political car-crash for Labour. The bond market is watching closely…
123. I can just as easily see Salmond going down as the last ever SNP first minister - the dearth of 2nd string talent on the SNP bench is frightening.
Once the actuarial curve catches up with the overweight, thirsty curry fan we’ll be back to the levels of popularity seen when Mr Swinney was in charge.
Did anyone watch QT last night? Is it true Yvette Cooper said she had signed on??
I think one has to appreciate the fact that being against “Big government” does not mean being in favour of no government.
I agree that it has set out a good dividing line, but it’s notable that those claiming that it’s a “hostage to fortune” do so because it’s not something Labour would sign up to. The idea that the Conservatives could be popular by having policies that Labour don’t like doesn’t seem to register.
I think NPMP’s criticism of the speech is misplaced; the conference was full of meaty policy, it was right that Cameron provided the vision thing.
You know, the thing Gordon said he’d set out. Which we are still waiting for.
Obama wins Nobel Peace Prize
93
It’s stunning how little Labour have achieved with their majorities.
“Is it true Yvette Cooper said she had signed on??”
Yes.
94. The Oncoming Storm (What a great posting name by the way!) - “… if they do back it would that see the bill through?”
Yes. (if the LD whip was actually obeyed by all 16 MSPs!)
47 SNP + 16 LD + 2 Grn = 65
46 Lab + 16 Con = 62
Margo = who has a scoobie? (not her anyway)
Alex Fergusson = casting vote? (probably not)
135-Why? What a load of boolox.
Talk about trendy posturing.
135. What for ? For being half black ?
Words fail me.
At risk of being accused of blind hatred and lack of political judgement from Mike Smithson, I have a strange feeling that in the cold light of day the Conservatives in the last week have finally showed their colours - and that essentially nothing has changed.
Osborne’s speech was notable because his approach to the bankers - the undeniable central characters (I would say villains, but contrarory to popular belief, I am not that black and white a thinker) in the piece - was to tick them off and send them a way with a warning not to get caught again stealing too many biccies from the cookie jar.
But Cameron has gone further. He has written the bankers out of the piece entirely. The world recession in the Cameroonian world is entirely the fault of ‘Big Government’.
And here is where I am confused - what is this ‘Big Government’ with its rules and regulations that he attacks - because at the same time as the majority of people are asking how a severly unregulated banking sector were able to be so reckless with the financial system underpinning all our livelihoods, the Conservative Party are selling us a remedy that sees government recklessness as the sole provider of problems and greater deregulation of business as the solution.
I do not pretend to be the world’s greatest economist (unlike some who comment here) but I fail to understand this logic, except perhaps in the political ideological sense. Which brings me back to my point. Have the Conservative Party changed? Well what seems to have happened in the aftermath of the meltdown is that the Chicago School have returned big time to the upper echelons of Conservative thinking, just as those who have always feared that it never went away predicted.
And here’s the thing. Chicago School economics has a very bad record in creating equitable societies - in fact their record in doing so is precisely 0. They also have very bad records in also encouraging further increases of state security in terms of using the state machinery to undermine oppositions to them. Thirdly, Chicago School run states tend to end up with higher deficits than the ones that they inherit. Far from shrinking the state, they tend to expand it - just in ways that syphon off wealth to areas of the economy that do not need support.
So when Cameron stands there and says that this is a battle of means not ends - that we are all fighting for the same end of a socially just country, I remain deeply, deeply cynical. A heavier dose of Chicago School is not what the doctor ordered, in fact it is very likely that it will drive us further into the clutches of the life support machine.
135 quote on Sky ‘He has won the Nobel Peace prize for not being George Bush’
128
Liam Fox is only a dangerous rival if Cameron slips up. Assuming Cameron reaches No.10, then Fox becomes less of a danger by the day - incumbency has rewards (look at Brown - close examination reveals somebody who might just be able enough to be a junior minister, yet he has handbagged his way to the PMship and he clings limpet-like to the position for which he is patently not suited)
134 She certainly did - I think Gaz updated her Wiki entry last night
136 They banned fox hunting. Unfortunately the number of people attending legal gatherings has increased since the new laws came into force.
“The Nobel Committee said he was awarded it for “his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and co-operation between peoples”.”
What a load of bollocks.
142 further quotes ‘he is the one that has ordered a further 60,000 troops into Afghanistan, and increased the air raids into Pakistan and incursions into Somalia’
lol, what a contrived award
Obama won Nobel Peace Prize for not being George Bush, a qualification most of us have. SKY
135
What’d he do?
Has something sneaked through on the inside rails?
135 I thought that was a spoof.
OMG IT’S TRUE.
What has he done?
Thats a kick in the nuts to many previous winners of the prize.
140. Laughable - a prize for doing nothing. On the other hand, they gave it to Kissinger too…who certainly did something….
Nobel Prize committee guy getting grilled by the press, its like Gordon is up there, hahahaha
140-Hate crime!!!!
Depending on the moderator, you may be banned!
149 For “his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and co-operation between peoples”.
146 But he was only elected 9 months ago?!?!!
I think Obama’s mentor, Gordon Brown, deserves a lot of the credit.
Obama winning the Nobel Peace Prize is stupid. He’s been in charge for 10 months and there is no more peace now then there was then. Maybe he is working towards that goal but there need to be results first which are completely lacking. What a stupid decision.
141
The banking sector is not ‘unregulated’, it’s badly regulated.
“Obama wins Nobel Peace Prize”
Huh? What for? I like him, but he’s not done anything.
P.S. Give Gordon Brown about 10 seconds to jump on the back of the Peace Prize announcement.
141 - “At risk of being accused of blind hatred and lack of political judgement from Mike Smithson”
Bright guy that Mr Smithson…
141. I’m afraid you are headed for a poor 2:2 with that kind of stuff, Paul.
But some good news. That commo hacker is being extradited.
Obama getting the Nobel Peace Prize is like OJ Simpson getting off first time around.
I’m
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8298580.stm
This is just nuts.
The Nobel committee are being grilled by the press and they are desperately trying to justify it!
Well, Obama hasn’t started a war. It really is “Pour encourager les autres’….
I bet the Iranians are sniggering - Obama won’t want to have to hand it back by bombing Tehran….
112. Thank You for your kind words and my personal regards to all regulars particularly ChristinaD and of course Martin Day ( banned from this parish I understand? ) . I had been taking a posting break while I was implimenting two major life changes which went very well and more recently been dealing with one of lifes less happy events. I’ve caught the odd thread and remain generally mazed at the quality of thought and analysis you get for free once you screen out some of the abusive chaff. The best discussion site in Britain.
I’ll throw in the odd post now and again but have been self censoring while not really focused. I’m sure my witterings and misspellings will return regularly at some point but you seem to be coping admirably without me.
We are all Here Today, Gone Tommorrow !
“For “his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and co-operation between peoples”.”
Sake. A few speeches? That’s just taking the piss.
152
Well the peace prize has been handed out to assorted murderers and terrorists in the past, so giving it to somebody who hasn’t actually done anything except speak somewhat; haltingly but with: a tone of unerring conviction, may at this time. be considered a considerable advance.
- “150.That’s a kick in the nuts to many previous winners of the prize”
I totally agree.
This devalues the entire Nobel Prize.
What a terrible mistake.
145 I don’t think anyone who opposed fox hunting would object to legal gatherings.In fact if it was truly the case that such gatherings were lawful ie drag hunting,,you could argue that the law was a success.
Oh dear Yvette. She should be in a lot of trouble.
1) She wasn’t on the rock and roll, ie, she’s lying.
2) She was on the rock and roll, ie, taking benefits when she’s loaded and attending two of the best universities in the WORLD.
********
And Obama Nobel Peace Prize - WTF
156. Brown received some Statesman of the Year prize a week or so ago, presented by Henry Kissinger the well known deserving recipient of a another Nobel Peace Prize, whilst Bono (friend of Dave) looked on.
Tom Lehrer was so right.
141 - Paul, you’ve struck on the reason why the “How can someone who will inherit £30m claim that we’re in it together?” line of thought goes nowhere. Osborne can always claim that regardless of his own circumstances he’s doing the “right” thing.
The line of questioning that Osborne needs to face is:
- what caused the recession/deficit? (Labour’s light-touch regulatory regime)
- what would the Conservatives have done differently if they’d been in power? (Nothing)
- what are they doing to “punish” the perpetrators? (Make vague threats about taxing bonuses)
- what are they doing to prevent a repetition? (Nothing)
Even funnier now the committee have just said that they wanted to give him the prize to promote what he is doing. Maybe they start should handing out Olympic medals to encourage athletes to run faster?!
I notice a man from Unison is disgusted that Cameron mentioned Fiona Pilkington in his speech. Interesting that he failed to find Brown’s reference to it so objectionable, and indeed the use of it in the part of his speech about ‘being on your side’ etc, and how great Labour were on crime and anti-social behaviour.
I see from the article that Morgan Tsvangari was also nominated. That Obama won in front of him is an utter travesty.
HAHAHAHA Marshall on Sky ‘Tell you what, let’s give it to Miss World next year, she always says she wants world peace’
awesome
BRILLIANT - Sky bloke ‘Let’s give it to Miss World next time, they always want world peace’.
Can we give Obama the Peace Prize ? ……………………
172 It depends how you measure success. More foxes are killed now, than before the ban.
179 SNAP
178 Absolutely spot on - a travesty.
178. It could have been worse; they could have given it to Mugabe.
“Labour’s light-touch regulatory regime”
This is a myth. It was light touch in the wrong areas, yes, but in other areas it was pointlessly heavy. You don’t create a brand new regulator employing 2000 people if you are engaged in “light-touch” regulation. Essentially we got the worst of both worlds from Labour-poor regulation where it mattered, heavy where it didn’t.
Just read and the news about Obama and thought I’d tune in to pbc to see if S&S has declared this to be the final nail for his reelection hopes.
One for tim - Mr Dale interviews Michal Kaminski.
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
185
Or Me!
The Daily Mash.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/i-will-release-bruce-forsyth-into-the-wild%2c-declares-cameron-200910092124/
Obama was Ladbrokes worst result, sadly. The Norwegians have just handed all of our Cameron Speech winnings back to the punters.
We put him in at 25/1. Saw a fair bit of money and went 20/1 but I wasn’t worried. Clearly far too populist a selection, couldn’t win.
187. Obama should turn it down - that would boost his election hopes.
187 Tell you what though, it will certainly rub people up the wrong way. I’ve been a supporter of Obama, but this has really annoyed me. It’s nothing but a subscription to the cult of personality and frankly he now needs to do something to deserve it.
175 - Labour have been deficit spending since 2001.
183 Marshall isn’t impressed is he Plato?!!
Mind you, nor am I. The beatification of Mr ‘errrrrr, errrrrrrrrr, errrrrrrrrrrrrrr’ non-orator proceeds apace
192 - You can hardly blame him for their decision though. Can we find out who nominated him or is that confidential?
192 But he did say he *wasn’t* born in a manger
186 - I should have added “plus poor internal governance, short-sitedness and greed by the banks” to the first comment.
195. Are you suggesting it was Gordon Brown?
***BIG BETTING POST***
I am going to risk being labelled one of the greatest forecasting chumps an pb.com.
I think that the next few HOURS could be the best to be a Tory Backer and a Labour Layer between now and the General Election.
Cameron’s speech yesterday left me quite underwhelmed and taking that factor and opposing it with the general approbation the speech received makes me think that the Tories could move on to new ground today.
Richard Nabavi- I liked your forecast of an 11-15% Tory lead in today’s YouGov but right now I think it could be even bigger.
A fool and his money are soon parted and I am about to hit the 203.0 for LAB on the Party Seat Line.
This could become a regular event.
2009 Nobel Prize for Peace: Barack Hussein Obama
2010 Nobel Prize for Literature: Barack Hussein Obama
2011 Nobel Prize for Physics: Barack Hussein Obama
2012 Nobel Prize for Chemistry: Barack Hussein Obama
“You can hardly blame him for their decision though”
True, but it adds to the how sparkle over substance thing that, in my opinion, is Obama’s greatest potential pitfall. The idea that those in certain areas fete him simply because he’s not a Republican, or because he’s a good speaker.
200
[142] - He has won the Nobel Peace prize for not being George Bush
Ah, well, they should have created a Nobel War Prize if they wanted to make a judgement on George Bush.
Still, genuine question, is this a more risible decision than their award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Henry Kissinger?
Second question, does this point to a generalised lack of other candidates? Has the past few years been that bad in terms of peace?
Seeing some of the highlights of the Cameron speech - it really was designed for TV. Those sections where he stared right down the camera were very effective.
“does this point to a generalised lack of other candidates?”
Morgan Tsvangari was nominated. He’s certainly done more than Obama.
[123] - The decline and fall of the British state is largely opus magnum of PM’s Attlee, Thatcher, Blair and Brown.
Stuart, my Scottish history is a bit rusty on the subject of why Attlee should be held jointly responsible for the possible future dissolution of the Union. Would you care to elaborate?
200 Has this one been announced yet?
2009 Nobel Prize for Economics,Fiscal Prudence & Financial Regulation: Gordon Brown.
We must lay the blame where it truly lies: with the Nobel committee.
What a bunch of total chumps.
It is hardly Obama’s “fault”. But he should be mightily embarrassed.
92. Yellow Sub. “I’ve spent the week in the unproductive and unreconstructed Public Sector. Even for all the bile on here I’m not sure some right wing posters are in touch about quite how dependant a small core are on state employment”.
I’m surprised that someone who claims to be from the left can be so dismissive of the public sector. If you worry about unproductive workers in what you lump together as the public sector-say nurses or street cleaners or sewage workers- you should try comparing them to the ‘productive workers’ in my industry of advertising where starting salaries are several times that of public service workers and where we serve no one but ourselves.
Perhaps travel with us (first class) to somewhere exotic and watch us make a chocolate commercial which might (or might not) ruin peoples teeth and you might (or might not) rekindle your respect for those who serve others however inefficiently.
208 He could have turned it down - I think there has been others.
199. I note that “no overall majority” on betfair has moved out to 4.8 in the last week. Much talk of a saver at 4.5 after Brown’s speech last week.
205. He’s suffered a bit for his efforts, too, unlike ‘the one’.
On the other hand, he’s from Africa (zzz) and his opponent is secretly admired by many left wingers.
158.141
The banking sector is not ‘unregulated’, it’s badly regulated.
by Dave B October 9th, 2009 at 10:21 am
Dave, I did mean to write ‘under regulated.’ - typing too fast because I am being distracted by work.
However, my point remains. Cameron’s speech was peppered with Chicago School thinking - ultimately the CS response to every issue is that there was ‘too much regulation’. This remains at odds with the thinking of many people out there, including people who are considering voting Conservative.
The absence of the bankers in the Conservative version of recent history is both strange and somewhat disturbing. If the Conservative Party want us to believe that we are all in this together, I think that they need to show a) dole out some personal medicine to them in the tough times and b) how they are going to remedy the banking system so that it can’t happen again. Simply wagging the finger and saying that more deregualtion is needed to make the economy ‘more dynamic’ seems to be completely at odds with this.
209 Roger, why do it if it’s such an objectionable industry?
214 You can’t expect Roger to live on the salary of a public servant, darling…….
210. Turning it down would indeed be the smart move; but has his head already grown too large with all the ridiculous fawning and flattery and the glittering trappings of office? Let’s see…
The power of the State has increased, is increasing and ought to be diminished. Discuss.
93. I’m a civil servant and I can’t say I’m enthusiastic about the pay freeze either. However I blame Blair/Brown for messing up the economy so badly that such things are necessary, not the Tories for proposing it. Blame the people who caused the mess, not the ones who are being reasonably honest about what it’ll take to clear it up.
Personally, I’d have preferred them to be much more imaginative - achieve a 10% pay cut by putting the entire civil service on a nine-day fortnight or something, for example.
203 – “genuine question, is this a more risible decision than their award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Henry Kissinger”
Risible, Yes, Obama has done nothing to justify this award. (However, he is not to blame for the decision) As for Kissenger, one may agree or disagree with the decision to award him, but he certainly ‘did’ something.
[210] - Does the Nobel committee sound out winners before announcing their decision, or could Obama still have an opportunity to reject it?
I don’t understand why the Nobel committee wouldn’t just wait a few years and see whether Obama’s efforts are successful. They will look doubly stupid if the war in Afghanistan continues to worsen over the next couple of years.
217. The power of the European Comission has increased, is increasing and ought to be diminished. Discuss.
Roger you are a tit of the first water.
Advertising is surely a competitive private sector business. Ad agencies can make a load of profit or disappear - depending on whether or not they are any good. The shareholders appoint the managers and the managers set the pay structures. The remuneration policies clearly work or else the agencies wouldn’t make any money.
You say you’ serve no-one but ourselves’ - and conveniently forget your clients. They advertise and pay agenices for a very good reason, otherwise they wouldn’t bother. It grows their profits and with it the economy.
What do you do in the advertising industry? Are you the janitor? You seem to have no concept of your own business model.
199. I note Labour now up to 203.5 - the power of pb.com
215. I seem to recall Roger once telling us that he earns in three days roughly what George Osborne set as the level of annual earnings above which the public sector pay freeze would apply…
My post conference season analysis here,
http://www.plenty2say.com
209 Roger - There’s a difference (and I accept it’s a difference which my Conservative friends have not always made clear) between attacking the public sector as a badly-run and badly-structured organisation, and attacking the individuals who work within it.
I’ve had a lot of dealings with employees in my local council, and they are mostly intelligent, professional, courteous and (as far as I can tell) not lazy. But the department as a whole is monstrously inefficient - mainly because of the conflicting goals and nonsensical targets which these people have to work within.
Those like coldstone who seek to continue to smear Michal Kaminski should read Iain Dale’s interview here:
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2009/10/exclusive-my-interview-with-michal.html
This is a truly astonishing and stupid decision.
And it is one that has great capacity to harm Obama (& I speak as someone broadly supportive of him).
Obama?
“A bit previous”
Although to say he’s done nothing contradicts the Tories allies.
Artur Gorski, a member of Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice party views the victory of Barack Obama as a threat to his kind.
Gorski described Obama as the “black messiah of the new left” and said his victory marks the “end of the civilization of the white man.”
Thats quite a lot really.
Well, the Obama news is quite a talking point. Everyone here is doing a big “WTF?!”
220. Yes Timothy - it’s daft even from a partisan perspective; so much better to award the prize just ahead of his re-election efforts.
So either the Committee are excitable and somewhat stupid, or perhaps they are worried about what might actually happen over the next few years…
223.Not really, TGOHF.I just SOLD £200 at 203 and someone is putting their tongue out at me.How very dare they !
I am asking to be a Seller now at 205.5 for a further £180.
195.
Bet Gordon voted for him at least a dozen times !
Now we know why Gord spoke to him last night …..
Gord: “Hello Mr President it’s The Prime Minister of Great Britain just ringing to congratulate you on your Nobel Prize Award ,Your Wonderful Mr President, Fantastic News Mr President, Super Dooper Mr President, Yippee Mr President”
Obahma: “This is a very bad line but I saw your speech this afternoon Prime Minister Dave it was fantastic, better than that clueless numpty Brown”
Brown: “Mr President this is Gordon Brown”…….
Obahma: “Gee F4ck”….. Hangs Up
Worth noting that the Peace Prize is the only Nobel that is not decided by a committee of experts, but is voted by politicians.
O/T. In other news, the Guardian Poll on Fox-hunting (would support a repeal of the ban?) was won by a margin of 50%
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/poll/2009/oct/06/hunting-davidcameron
227
Is that Tory MP hopeful, Iain Dale, an unbiased source I’m sure.
212
Mugabe and the left!
Mugabe lauds Thatcher
30/03/2005 21:11 - (SA)
Harare - Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe praised former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher on Wednesday as a “man-woman” who could resolve issues but said Tony Blair was a “disaster” for his country.
Addressing supporters in Harare at a campaign rally, Mugabe recounted that he had held a “man-to-man” talk with Blair in 1983 to discuss the arrest of 13 British air force officers on suspicion of destroying the country’s aircraft.
“We sat down in 1983 in New Delhi, and we had a man-to-man talk. Thatcher was a man-woman,” Mugabe said.
In contrast, Mugabe said he viewed Blair as “the greatest disaster that Britain has ever had”.
Cicero you are right that a cap on the payroll budget is best but that needs some preparation time if it is not to cause chaos. You would be surprised at how many state funded organs do not have an accurate head count for tenured employees.
So I would expect in the first year for an overall freeze during which the payrolls for the subsequent years are capped at a negative 2-5% pa. This allows change by ‘natural’ causes and a reduction in the ever burgeoning ‘temps’ in the budget saving money while giving room for performance pay.
Whatever you may hear it worked well in the 80’s and actually saved some organisations who were so sclerotic they were dead on their feet.
I for one hope the SLDs go for an independance referendum (campaigning for a no vote). It cuts off a couple of the SNP campaigning points (denying a referendum, other parties too scared etc) it’s a distinctive policy from the other two parties and should make some headlines given we can change the balance of power on the matter.
Frankly it’s time one of the non-SNP pro-union parties found the stomach to stand up and agree to a straight fight on the issue. The longer it’s put off, the stronger Salmond’s hand becomes.
[219] - Kissinger did something? What, like bomb Cambodia?
Obama wins Nobel Prize for a few fuzzy speeches.
Or did the Nobel Committee see something that the IOC didn’t?!!!
O/T - Green party TDs are being seen to be playing hardball over negotiations for a new programme for government in Ireland. There are threats to walk away from the government if agreement is not secured by lunchtime but I reckon its just a bit of bluster to get the Green party members to agree to continue in government when they meet tomorrow. If you think they have more balls than I do you can get 15/8 on an election this year (basically that requires the Green members to pull the plug tomorrow).
232. My Labour sell average is 215.9 - not sure I’m tempted again at these prices.
LD spread of 48.5-51 would surely be disasterous for Clegg ? Suprised more LDs not jumping on at 51.
212
Yep! she could spot a bad ‘un ‘ol Maggie.
Charm is not a word I associated with Mugabe, yet when Margaret Thatcher gave a dinner in his honour at Downing Street and praised the Marxist terrorist’s work for peace and reconciliation (after vowing never to negotiate with terrorists), he received her tribute gracefully, charmed to be there, just as he was to be charmed by his knighthood later. Thereafter he worked with the British to implement the Lancaster House agreement, including its provisions to pay the colonialists’ pensions and refrain from changing the constitution for ten years.
I’ll bet she wasn’t taken by him though: not much!
The obama thing is hilarious…if I get a good telepromoter do you think I could win it next year?
President Obama wins the Nobel Peace Prize? Words fail me. This is the Dianification of a major prize. Come to that, there would have been a much better case for giving it to Princess Diana.
Will he accept? If I were Barack Obama, I would turn it down on the ground that it is not appropriate to accept such awards while still serving as president.
220 Scientists wait decades to be recognised for their work by the Nobel Committee. There was a fascinating R4 documentary about it a few ago.
I thought Kissenger got it for the shuttle diplomacy stuff - I was still in primary school so not a reliable memory!
Can I put a bet on myself for a Nobel prize next year? I have done a similar amount for World peace. Only last night I stopped a squabble between my 2 children, and it was much more peaceful after that.
What
a
joke
245 - that was my understanding; the Paris Accord, and all that…
On the plus side, my chances of nabbing Physics are looking better than ever.
Is it 1st April?
Or has Obama brought peace to the middle east and we have all missed it whilst obessing about dead millionaires tax?
Did he get Russia to join Nato but forget to tell anyone outside of the nobel commitee?
When will the economics prize be announced ? Must be a close fight between Brown and Applegarth ?
241.The bookmakers midpoint for the Lib Dems is exactly 55 so I agree with you.
Since my forecast of a Tory poll boom I note massive support for Labour…..LOL.Take a look at ‘Most Seats’.
Probably I am a chump but I can live with it.
235 - coldstone - why dont you just read the interview and see what Kaminski says? He has agreed to come back next year and address the Conservative Conference Gay Pride event!
The Obama thing is a bit weird. What’s the official reason?
Unofficially this is probably deserved just for kicking out George W and his “compassionate conservatives”.
I’d hope Obama has the decency to be utterly embarassed by this.
222 Roger directs glossy commercials for Sanitary products and Lavatory paper. Don’t knock him, the mans had a tough life. He’s a simply educated lad (Millfield £27,000 pa) scraping a meagre living (£000’s per day plus per diems & expenses).
235. ‘Mugabe recounted that he had held a “man-to-man” talk with Blair in 1983′
I rather doubt that, myself.
252: I hate to point this out Jonathan, but Bush served his two terms and retired. Hardly ‘kicked out’.
I have read it, so what? doesn’t mean he’s changed on the inside.
141 Banking has been heavily regulated for years. The recent problem is that neither regulators nor bankers knew what they were doing.
238 - “Kissinger did something? What, like bomb Cambodia?”
And your point?
249 That’s going to Obama as well for his ’sage-like’ witterings on US unemployment that were hopelessly innaccurate within 2 miniutes of being spoken
249 On the basis of Obama for peace, Gordon looks nailed on for the Economics Nobel Prize….
245. Yep, but as I said, the Peace Prize is in the gift of the Swedish Parliament, not a committee of experts.
If Obama deserves it, then any kid getting a GCSE Grade B in chemistry should book his ticket to Stockholm for next year.
Don’t forget, the year Kissinger won it was a joint award - some thug from N. Vietnam got it too.
[245] - I acknowledge that Kissinger did some important things - do the Paris Accords have anything to do with the talking to China?
I still think that his involvement in the Vietnam war should have ruled out being awarded teh Peace Prize. For all of Obama’s nascent efforts on the international stage, Afghanistan may yet become a similar millstone around his reputation.
256 A mere technicality. The ‘08 republican ticket was beyond the Palin.
258 - so what is Osborne doing to adress either problem?
should have given the peace prise to Tim Berners Lee imo -surely the internet does a lot to promote understanding, freedom and ultimately therefore peace between cultures and cultures
256 Perhaps he was thinking of his dad?
250. What ever happened to the nice young lady who used to post on here - kept putting more and more on 2009 for election date - I forget his name.
257: Who knows what lurks in the heart of man?
The Coldstone knows…
I imagine the BBC has had a collective orgasm at the Obama news. Is Huw Edwards on the plane to Washington right now for tonight’s Ten News Obama Special?
219 - I can see the Kissinger argument for opening up relations with China, but he didn’t get the Nobel Prize for that - he got it for peace in Vietnam which is a bit of a joke.
Remember that the Nobel Peace Prize is primarily an international relations prize (promoting fraternity between nations, reducing standing armies and promoting peace conferences is I think the criteria). It isn’t for promoting domestic democracy which explains somebody like Tsvangari not getting it (although Mandela and Suu Kyi both got it). It also isn’t a prize for being a bloody nice bloke - which is why I think Kissinger (or even Nixon), for all his many flaws, would have had a good case for it over relations with China.
On that basis, I actually think there’s a fairly strong case for Obama. There has certainly been a defrosting of relations on several fronts.
Of course, to all those on here who have been making Carter comparisons this is a green light to continue (albeit Carter’s prize was years after his Presidency ended).
WRT “punishing” the bankers, that would be cutting off our noses to spite our faces. We will be reliant on the City to generate economic growth in the years to come.
I see Twitter is having a nervous breakdown with loads of Obama? WTF! tweets
If it’s true that President Obama has won the Nobel peace prize (Has he really? then, as Antifrank points out at 244, he ought to decline the “honour”. Obama has a country to try to guide through interesting times and THE PRIZE I think might be a kind of moral blackmail. Anyway, as has also been pointed out here, we cannot blame Obama for the committee’s strange even twisted behavior.
On another topic, I also think “Birthday honours” are or should be emminently declinable. Let’s kick the class hangup into the long grass.
261 - The economics prize isnt a real nobel prize so noone cares who wins it anyway
234
Interesting, but no surprise: ‘The whole is less than the sum of the parts’
272 - but its not necessarilly about punishment - the important point is how to curb their more destructive tendencies from causing future problems.
It would be great to see some real debate about how we got to where we are, and what is being proposed to stop it happening again.
You all realise that was an article on PB earlier this year on what would happen if Brown won the economics prize: http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/03/19/would-a-nobel-prize-boost-labours-prospects/
271. Whatever one thinks of Carter generally, he did have real diplomatic achievements to his credit. The mood music and warm words of Obama so far don’t come remotely close to those. I really hope he declines.
In the present climate, I expect him to win ‘Best in show’ next year.
“Obama has a country to try to guide through interesting times and THE PRIZE I think might be a kind of moral blackmail.”
My first thought. ‘How dare these people disagree with Obama, he’s a Nobel Peace Prize winner!”
272 But why punish public sector workers on £18,000. They have done absolutely nothing wrong and we rely on them just as much if not more for economic growth.
269
Telling people what they want to hear, isn’t that difficult, ‘cos you know what it is. Believing them thats another thing.
I’m sure Mrs T believed Mugabe when he fed her all that guff, didn’t work out did it.
263 - I don’t think Vietnam should have ruled Kissinger out. Like I say, it isn’t the Nobel Being a Nice Bloke Prize.
The Paris Accords were the Vietnam peace treaties. I really don’t think he should have got it for that. China should be considered on its merits.
Trying to be objective…Obama has significantly thawed relations with Russia - agreeing to take the nuclear misslie defence system out of eastern Europe was a bold move in stopping a slide towards Cold War rhetoric. And the way he allowed Iran to lie and lie about their second uranium reprocessing facility before calling them out was very well played.
But, still…WTF???
278 OMG.
“isn’t for promoting domestic democracy ….(although Mandela and Suu Kyi both got it)”
So it clearly has been then.
I look forward to shadsy’s market on the Nobel Prize for Economics.
282 - Why do Labour want to punish them? Probably noone really wants to punish them. But there is no money in the kitty. None.
Further to 288, couldn’t shadsy offer that as one of his “Gordon Brown Specials”?
282. Woolworths workers did nothing wrong - public sector are getting off lightly. We’re all in this toghether remember
From AP
“Winners of the Nobel Peace Prize since 1980:
___
_ 2009: U.S. President Barack Obama
_ 2008: Martti Ahtisaari
_ 2007: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Al Gore
_ 2006: Muhammad Yunus, Grameen Bank
_ 2005: International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei
_ 2004: Wangari Maathai
_ 2003: Shirin Ebadi
_ 2002: Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter
_ 2001: United Nations, Kofi Annan
_ 2000: Kim Dae-jung
_ 1999: Medecins Sans Frontieres
_ 1998: John Hume, David Trimble
_ 1997: International Campaign to Ban Landmines, Jody Williams
_ 1996: Carlos Filipe Ximenes Belo, Jose Ramos-Horta
_ 1995: Joseph Rotblat, Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
_ 1994: Yasser Arafat, Shimon Peres, Yitzhak Rabin
_ 1993: Nelson Mandela, F.W. de Klerk
_ 1992: Rigoberta Menchu Tum
_ 1991: Aung San Suu Kyi
_ 1990: Mikhail Gorbachev
_ 1989: The 14th Dalai Lama
_ 1988: U.N. Peacekeeping Forces
_ 1987: Oscar Arias Sanchez
_ 1986: Elie Wiesel
_ 1985: International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War
_ 1984: Desmond Tutu
_ 1983: Lech Walesa
_ 1982: Alva Myrdal, Alfonso Garcia Robles
_ 1981: Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees
_ 1980: Adolfo Perez Esquivel”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jULBAf2hvS9ClB77A_IH8I0rqFzgD9B7G82G0
Mike should make the sub-heading above the comments always read “Where do you want the BNP to finish in the general election?”; that should stop this “First” nonsense!
282: I’m failing to understand your mindset. It’s not ‘punishment’ as if they’ve done something wrong.
Actually, Obama getting the Peace Prize would devalue Gordon getting the Economics Prize. There would just be a general assumption that everyone on Sweden was out of it on ’shrooms…
“The policy of freezing individual compensation- as opposed to capping the total wage bill-”
A wage freeze in the public sector is temporary - just one year, so your supposition is wrong. As a one off act to stabilise the deficit in an emergency budget it seems plausible to me. In the longer term, controlling the wage bill is a matter for the local authority block grant. This will have to come down if we are to cut spending.
But Cameron etc are wise to be cautious. The spending genies has been let out of the bottle and it will be appallingly difficult to get it back in. The priority is to get in power. Once the books are opened the new government will have the ammunition to justify the inevitable pain squeezing that genie back in will bring.
As for Mr Smithsons point — the harsh fact is we have a deficit of 180 billion this year and next and a national debt heading for 1.4 trillion.and debt repayment haeding for 63 billion a year. Just what does he expect - his own esteemed party leader talked of savage cuts. No sane voter can expect spending to not be cut. And only a fool would believe Brown when he says it can be paid back by a return to some piddling growth. We have a structural deficit of 10 % of GDP.
The harsh fact is that thanks to Brown we are eff cee you kayed no matter which govt is in power.
288 - That market has been up for a while under AWARDS/SPECIALS.
226. Richard. “209 Roger - There’s a difference (and I accept it’s a difference which my Conservative friends have not always made clear) between attacking the public sector as a badly-run and badly-structured organisation, and attacking the individuals who work within it.”
Absolutely right which is why I sent it to Yellow Submarine who as someone who claims to be from the left should know how enemies of public services deliberately blur this distinction.
214. EdP. Because I like working with film!
224. Runnymede. True but that’s only for ’shooting days’ which you can’t do every day.
282 Jonathan, maybe you should address that question to one G Brown of Downing Street, who bears as much responsibility as any for the financial mess in which UK Plc finds itself.
297 - Eugene Fama is strong favourite for his work on the efficient markets hypothesis. To me, it would appear an almost uniquely bad time to award it to him, although to give him credit, he has been his own fiercest critic over the years in a funny way.
_ 1985: International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War
Christ.
277 Tabman - Osborne has done exactly what you are asking for; he had made several speeches on this subject where he looks at exactly what went wrong (which was as predicted by Peter Lilley in 1997). He has proposed a reorganisation which, very sensibly, would remove the confused lines of responsibility of Brown’s muddled tripartite system, and put overall supervisory responsibility firmly in the hands of the Bank of England (which of course was where it was placed, very successfully, for the 100+ years before Brown interfered).
But of course, by definition the Tories have no policies, so no-one on the Left has bothered to respond to or even read what he has said.
If you really are interested, take a look at Osborne’s speeches on conservatives.com.
299 No it’s your party’s choice, your policy to defend.
New Thread BTW
“Have you noticed,” a parliamentary candidate says to me, “that all the mad people with bad suits have gone?” He thinks they’re all in UKIP now.
by Richard Nabavi October 9th, 2009 at 9:43 am
He ought to add ‘or in the BBC’.
285. “Trying to be objective…Obama has significantly thawed relations with Russia - agreeing to take the nuclear misslie defence system out of eastern Europe was a bold move in stopping a slide towards Cold War rhetoric.”
Don’t believe the hype. The land based system was cancelled but it will be replaced by a ship-based theatre ballistic missile defence, and a medium-term upgrade to provide defence against ICBMs.
Simply put — an unproven system is being replaced by one that works.
“And the way he allowed Iran to lie and lie about their second uranium reprocessing facility before calling them out was very well played.”
Does that promote peace? I’m not sure, and the US is accelerating a programme to upgrade B2s to attack such targets.
298 ‘EdP. Because I like working with film!’
Well so do I, but I don’t pontificate to others about what a dreadful industry it is, and how I’m forced to shoulder the burden of guilt and shame for being in such a well paid career!
Why don’t you give away all your earnings if it’s too much to live with?
Flash Ghost-That was Penny4Them.I remember her well.She had plenty of spirit.
When is the Economics Prize announced?
There must be a pretty strong argument that the Prizes should be discontinued.
The Peace Prize has always been a joke.
But even the academic prizes have caused plenty of dissension. E.g., they have often split up productive collaborative work between scientists, as one person is recognized and the other is not.
Obama peace prize !!!
What a joke. They will be giving these things away with cornflake packets next.
The worst part about it is that it means we will have to put up with another one of his rambling pompous speeches again.
As Benedict Brogan says “They could have awarded it to Kylie Minogue and I wouldn’t have been half as surprised “
302
Whilst it would be nice to think that banking regulation could be returned to the ’status quo ante’, I’m not sure that the genie can be put back in the bottle. Brown may well have achieved his aim of smashing the system.
Why I think and indeed know, that analysts - those that sit in expensive offices abd get fat salaries - really know nothing and it’s all big guessing game.
Analysts didn’t foresee the finacial crash - indeed they egged it on - and they didn’t see factory goods prices rising:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8298549.stm
They are a bunch of fakes, but so musch do they earn for so little effort that I think I will join them and open an office myself. I cant be a worse forcaster than them and indeed, may be a lot better.
As for the GREAT MESSIAH getting the Nobel Peace Price, this is another farce. He has done NOTHING except yap, and may with his Iranian and Middle East polisies bring war a damned site nearer.
258. Basel 2 instructed banks and lenders to lend more widely and to only to safe risks. They were told to repackage their debts and sell them on to others so as the risk became divided up amongst many people, no one would be vulnerable to the ones that failed to pay.
the bust was not caused by absence of regulation, but directly by regulation. No bank would have taken on lending to non-creditworthy customers unless instructed to do so.
The politicians wants the boom to go on forever. It happened to coincide with a massive power grab to the centre, with world government organisations such as the EU getting themselves into overriding control of the countries of the world.
The bust they will blame on the banks they fucked up…and the powerful will now take more powers to supposedly clear up the mess which was of their own making.
Maybe the Nobel prize is becoming like the Orange Prize for fiction, given to a novel that is quite good really, when you take into account that it’s written by a woman.
312. Sorry for the typing mistakes.
302 - Although I broadly agree that the system of regulation is too divided at present, surely that doesn’t get to the heart of what actually went wrong, the incentives that were at play and so on.
It would be more convincing had their been siren voices at the Bank of England predicting catastrophe, but there weren’t and it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the BOE would have made the same mistakes as the FSA somewhat more efficiently whilst wearing more nicely cut suits.
I think that by obsessing on shuffling regulatory deckchairs, the Conservatives are quite deliberately taking the heat off the people and the system that caused the crisis and putting it on the people who failed to spot it, which in my view is somewhat important but basically secondary.
OMFG and ONtopic: Ben Bradshaw MP just tweeted THIS:
“the camerons got good nhs care thanks to Labour’s investment and reform. is this the “big government” he derides?”
http://twitter.com/BenBradshawMP
Oh holy moly. Does he realise what he is implying? Does he realise just how utterly clumsy and clunking and horrible this sounds?
Thinking about it… can Brown - if the entire world goes insane actually win the Economics Prize? I thought it had to be for academic work/theory?
Calling Nick Palmer, calling Nick Palmer: please report back to the bunker and have your control chip checked. It is reported you are still using the line ‘the Tories have no policies’. This is oldspeak. The current truth is ‘the Tories have too many policies and they are all evil’. Amend your programme immediately.
Calling Nick Pal………..
317 - No. It is an academic prize. Nobody who knows anything about it even suggests he could win. It’s preposterous.
316 Bradshaw is using a modified version called ‘Twatter’. It offers instant ‘foot in mouth’, with no chance of rebuttal or later denial. Someone should be advising him to keep his mouth shut and his head down, below the parapet.
237. Unfortunately if the LD’s do the expected about turn they will have to do it under their federal option , which means a win-win for the SNP as nobody will vote for status quo when they can go for increased powers or independence, most would likely opt for the half way house, but it could still go to independence.
Yellow Sub has to be one of the all time pb greats.
His post above is correct.
The Tories have gone from wanting to do the right thing to get elected to wanting to do the right thing.
A simple decison has been made. They want to save the country. If they can’t do that, there is no point in winning.
I wonder if the country will notice.
From now on the Tory message will be all about the country: there is a desire decision govern rather than be in power.
The Labopur campaign will be about the Tories because in contrast they want to be in power.
#78 SD on Scottish Lib Dems and referendum.
Note Brian Taylor on BBC Radio Scotland says its just a device by Tavish to enforce the pro referendum dissidents to shut up by conducting a private internal vote. (really? is gagging really possible when it comes to the Lib Dems?).
Taylor went on to say 75% of the Lib Dem MSPs will back the Tavish line of no referendum. Presumably this is Tavish originated briefing?