But what if he’s right?
June 25th, 2009
Could he have the winning formula after all?
The largely settled view of commentators and punters alike is that Labour will lose the next general election. No pundit has predicted that Labour (still less Brown) will be running government after polling day for some time, and the betting markets make the Conservatives heavily odds-on to win an outright majority, never mind most seats. Labour’s implied percentage chances of keeping a majority are stuck in single figures.
However, a slim chance is not no chance and longer-priced bets have come in before. Let’s think then about what could bring about a Labour victory - and what would happen after it. Let’s also set aside the possibility of Labour replacing Brown: they’ve had their chance and demonstrated that they wouldn’t want to take it even if they could. Once parliament sits again after the recess, there’ll be scant to no opportunity to replace him.
Brown’s strategy seems clear. Indeed, Daniel Finkelstein in yesterday’s Times suggests with some justification that it’s been there to see since the early 1990s. The gist of it is that we will hear a lot more of ‘10% Tory cuts’ because that’s the current equivalent of what worked for Major’s Conservatives and Clinton’s campaign in 1992.
Could he be right? Hope and fear drive electoral politics like little else and of the two, fear is usually the stronger. There are a lot of people who stand to lose from government spending cuts: pensioners, public-sector workers, parents of school-age or pre-school children to name just a few of the more obvious. There are a lot of votes to be won.
For Labour to do so means they’ll have to win the trust argument, not necessarily with the electorate at large but with the 36% that could deliver them victory. That sector which might vote Labour need to believe (a) that the Tories really would hurt their livelihoods and (b) that Labour wouldn’t. Given their different prognoses for the economy made by the two parties, there is perhaps a window of opportunity to do so. In many cases, it will not be the Conservatives from whom Labour needs to win voters back; it’s people who’ve abstained since 1997 or voted for minor parties. Even if the hope of 1997 is no longer there, fear might serve sufficiently.
It is unlikely: the strategy clearly isn’t working for Labour at the moment, as they trail far behind the Conservatives. If it is to work, it will only be a long, attritional campaign that will do it, one which the public hasn’t bought in to so far. Unlikely but not impossible. Other ‘events’ could intervene too: the expenses scandal has made little impact on the relative Tory/Labour position but it’s not inconceivable that something else might. Nothing of significance has turned up of that nature in the last four years but you never know.
What happens then? If Brown does win, his self-confidence will soar, as will his support in his party. The cabinet will be reshuffled and in his much stronger position, that could well mean Balls to the Treasury as well as a much more Brownite complexion in general.
Political debts, especially to the unions and their members, will also have to be paid and promises kept - and that, I think, means that he is sincere when he says that he won’t cut public spending. He knows he won’t have a choice. In fact, I’d go further: I don’t think he’d cut front-line spending, excluding interest repayments and benefits. Where that would lead is open to debate - though Mervyn King wouldn’t be happy.
As I say, none of that’s likely. The Conservatives are in strong positions in all the polling data and in real elections but then so was Labour in 1991. It’s true that John Major’s personal ratings were better then than Gordon Brown’s are now but then the Tories also needed many more votes to be reelected than Labour will. That the Conservatives are no better than 2/5 to gain an overall majority (something that requires gains on a scale not made by the Tory party since the unusual circumstances of 1931) tells its own story. Even so, it’s always worth looking at what’s not likely: after all, that’s where the juicy odds tend to be.
David Herdson
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aggghhh no…too much of the scary man!!
Please…enough of the Brown pictures. It is lunchtime after all.
1st?
boo!!!
1 - Would this be better?
http://foreverloyal.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/gollum.jpg
FPT (and then I must work, *sigh*):
If I were Director General of the BBC (inshallah, it will happen soon) it simply wouldn’t occur to me to charge the taxpayer £2k to HIRE A PRIVATE JET when there is a wealth of alternatives: first class plane flights, private limo, superfast train.
Which would all be suitably luxurious, and perfectly quick, and cost less than half.
No, he had to HIRE A PRIVATE JET.
He’s not even a bloody Minister or a Royal. He’s an apparatchik at the BBC.
How many other “public servants” have this sense of entitlement? How many leaders of councils and top civil servants are leeching away our cash for their jets and jacuzzis?
Slash and Burn, David, Slash and Burn.
A happy Brown is rather unsettling.
It usually means bad news for someone else - and the electorate.
4(cont) Or better still,
http://i.thisislondon.co.uk/i/pix/2009/05/prescott-face-415×560.jpg
Caption competition time:
Brown’s just found out theres a international conference next Wednesday.
5 SeanT. £2K for a private jet sounds cheap depending on the number of passengers, distance etc. Any more details ??
8. Caption compy time? OK, um….
“No time for the old in-out love. I’ve just come to read the meter!”
“If I were Director General of the BBC (inshallah, it will happen soon) it simply wouldn’t occur to me to charge the taxpayer £2k to HIRE A PRIVATE JET when there is a wealth of alternatives: first class plane flights, private limo, superfast train.”
Do you know a) his requirements for the journey at the time (eg when he needed to be there and b) what was available which allowed him to meet those requirements?
It’s very easy to sound off about these things when you don’t have the context and facts to hand.
9 - But Jack, there is absolutely no need for the private jet! He was travelling 200 miles!
I should admit that it was my choice of picture. Happy Gords - that’s what we need!!
The problem of this strategy is that you expect him to win a majority on 36% of the vote, and also call a referendum on PR for the same day.
So the slogan will be “I need 36% of your votes to keep out the visigoths, “change the voting system to prevent me keeping out the visigoths on 36% of the vote.
Should be a fascinating campaign.
11. B*llocks - it was the Sachs scandal and the only reason he had to fly back was to save his own skin.
Zeroth!!
Any chance of an on-topic comment? Go on - surprise us.
Have Brown, Darling and Balls (husband and wife) really escaped scrutiny over their expenses, is everying really above board and clean?
Brown is still under immense pressure over the govenment finances from the B of E, someone is in denial, is it King, Darling or Brown over the scale of the problem.
What shift away from current Tory polling do we require for a workable Lib-Labour pact?
Brown to be PM after next spring; Cable chancellor. The cost would be an immediate bill on PR, meaning there would be a left-leaning government guaranteed and the Tories might be cut out for ever.
The dream/nightmare scenario, depending on your viewpoint………
12 Oracle. Thanks. Do we know from where and to ?? and as I say number of passengers ?
Certainly on the surface it looks OTT.
15 - Hold on there seems to be some confusion.
According to what I have read, there are two holiday claims,
1) Maine -> Boston, private plane, 200 miles, £1,277.71 was spent on a private plane in August 2004
2) Italy -> UK, pay for whole family to come back, £2.3k, to deal with Sachs Scandal. No mention of private plane, just tickets back home.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
16.
Ok - Brown can survive if the economy picks up - but the economy cannot pick up because it was only “up” because of credit.
This graph shows why boom times are not coming back any time soon.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/hew/2008/dec/hew.gif
His only other method is to use public cash to re-inflate the bubble but as everyone else on the planet including Merv, Darling and even Cooper has realised he has maxed out that credit card.
Ergo Gordo = toast.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23712049-details/BBC+director+general+flown+home+after+Sachsgate+scandal/article.do
“What shift away from current Tory polling do we require for a workable Lib-Labour pact?
Brown to be PM after next spring; Cable chancellor. The cost would be an immediate bill on PR, meaning there would be a left-leaning government guaranteed and the Tories might be cut out for ever.”
Sorry, but this is Ed Balls.
- PR does not stop one party winning >50%
- Labour is equally distant to the Lib Dems as the Tories, viz its anti civil liberties agenda and profligacy
- top-down statemsim flies in direct contradiction to bottom up liberalism
Cable would not be Chancellor for Gordon, and quite right too.
HE ISN’T RIGHT.
Under the new boundries, Labour need to lose only 20-30 seats to lose their majority.
Under what circumstances would a government running for a 4th term, behind in the polls for well over a year and facing a mixed economic situation, NOT lose 20-30 seats?
People talk of Major squeaking in in 1992, but how many seats did Major lose then?
14. I don’t expect him to win 36% of the vote. I just think that it’s possible (if unlikely) and worth exploring (a) how it might happen and (b) what the consequences would be if it did.
20: Why would the whole family have to come home?
20 - So in my mind there are two things here,
1) I just can’t believe that the private plane was a sensible option, 200 miles, what 3-4hrs. I reckon, by the time he had hired the jet, gone to the local airport, security, all the safety checks etc etc etc, not going to be much quicker. And what was so important in 2004 to get to Boston to get another flight somewhere else?
2) I can see some merit in the argument for him coming back to the UK to deal with Sachs-gate. Still think his deputy probably could and should have been in charge, after all it was only a half term week away. But why are we paying for his whole family? Why couldn’t they have finished their vacation and got the flights they already had booked?
24, plus Major was liked and Kinnock was not. Positions are now reversed for Government and Opposition in that regard.
“That sector which might vote Labour need to believe (a) that the Tories really would hurt their livelihoods and (b) that Labour wouldn’t.”
Point a) may be true, but it depends on the job and sector, but point b) is not true at all. If you choose to believe Labour you are choosing to believe a lie. The 10% versus 7% cuts argument is based upon the same set of figures, the Tories will do some ring fencing, so far Labour has not confirmed they will.
18 KB. Much depends on the performance of the Lib Dems and Nats but broadly the Tories need to drop to 36/38% and Labour edge up in the 30/32% range.
Another factor will be the extent if any of tactical voting against Labour. Also if UKIP manage to keep 3-5% of the vote it will hit the Tories harder.
I don’t think Labour can win on their message.
They need the Conservatives to implode.
The only issues I can see on the horizon that might conceivably cause difficulty are the disclosures on second jobs, or possibly a massive internal party argument when Lisbon is ratified. But neither should be too difficult for someone of Cameron’s political calibre.
And if nothing else, suppose Labour start seriously recovering in the polls, for whatever reason, without changing their commitment not to cut public spending. Then the yields on gilts will rise like crazy and we might get more gilt strikes and/or a credit rating downgrade. Even if that doesn’t happen, a few hundred pounds on everyone’s mortgage will concentrate minds.
30, I wonder if the BNP and Greens might affect some constituencies as well.
27 - Meant to say 3-4hrs driving.
Some of the claims read like the MP’s,
Jana Bennett claimed £500 for a handbag stolen
Then Future Media and Technology Chief Ashley Highfield charged £1,430 for a meal for 29 at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas. He also recouped £133 for one day’s parking and £217 for an iPod touch to test the BBC’s video services.
32 MD. Perhaps a few at the margin.
34: What troughers…
34, I wonder if this will explode like MPs expenses did.
On the one hand, the BBC won’t be quite so gungho (unless they have a few scarce Tories working for them
), but rival broadcasters and the print media might be happy to give them a kicking.
Plus politicians would love a chance to give someone a bollocking for once rather than receiving one.
34 - that’s worse than any dining expense I’ve seen from any MP. She just had to stay in the Bellagio did she?
34 - I want to know where the hell he parked for £133, I hope it wasn’t the cost of a paying a fine!
Could Brown be right after all?
I suppose David Icke could be as well - about the same probability for each.
For the 10% attack to work he has to bury the fact that:
1. These numbers are from his own budget
2. He’s run out of our money to spend
Blair might have been able to get away with lies like that, maybe, but that’s because he was a liar of extra-special abilities. Brown is just going to be made to look a fool by continuing this line of attack.
38 - Should have pushed the boat out and stayed at the Wynn instead! After all, it is only due to the unique way the BBC is funded that they can afford it!
BBC: Wasting the publics money. It’s what we do.
I notice in the BBC report, they are very selective on what has been claimed e.g £99 for Champers for Bruce’s 80th, well I think we will give them that one…
43 - It’s all in the database
22 - £1,277.71 for a private jet??? That can’t be right. I suspect there is less to the story than meets the eye.
42. Yes thank f*ck for the unique way the licence fee funds their meals, iPods, private flights and ludicrous car park bills.
47. I expect both barrel from the Daily Mail tomorrow…
46 - It doesn’t matter what kind of plane it was, he spent £1.3k on getting from Maine to Boston, 200 miles away! Even Squeaky Osborne hasn’t found a way of charging that kind of money, yet!
On thread, not a chance of Labour pulling this one off. In 1992 the Tories were telling the truth. John Smith did intend to introduce crazy economics into the system. That and his sitting on his hands throughout the Monklands scandal convinced me he would be a crap PM if he ever got elected.
Let’s be honest, most of those in the public sector likely to lose their jobs if we get a Tory government which has to make major cuts in public spending are people who would never vote Tory anyway. At best they would be LibDems or Greens. The Tories have already alienated anyone they are likely to alienate.
In addition simply no-one now believes anything Labour says other than people like NPMP and the rest of the CLP. even the Trade Unions dont believe them and most union members will be holding their collective noses as they vote Labour next year.
I posted the following for Jack W and anyone remotely interested in such things as titles at the end of the last thread:
321 Jack W
Not quite. The exact title depends upon the terms of the Letters Patent. However in Scotland the Lord Lyon recognises around 10,000 territorial designations such as “of Cadboll” currently owned by Glenmorangie Distillery and therefore unuseable until the distillery sells the remains of Cadboll Castle to an individual. The nearest equivalent in England is a Lordship of a Manor.
An example is that of the Baillie family.
The Hon. Alexander Baillie of Dochfour is the younger son but since his father gifted him the family estates, he now holds the baronial title.
His father is simply “The Lord Burton” as will his elder brother Evan be on his father’s death.
by Easterross June 25th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
“Political debts, especially to the unions and their members, will also have to be paid and promises kept - and that, I think, means that he is sincere when he says that he won’t cut public spending. He knows he won’t have a choice. In fact, I’d go further: I don’t think he’d cut front-line spending, excluding interest repayments and benefits. Where that would lead is open to debate - though Mervyn King wouldn’t be happy.”
David, its not just a case of Mervyn King being unhappy, is what you are suggesting actually sustainable?
What if Brown could win the next election on cuts/spending?
And what if cows could fly? then we’d all have real problems with cowpats landing on our heads.
Given that all that is keeping our gilts sellable and our credit rating at AAA is the 90% certainty that Labour will not be here this time next year - if Gordon Brown remains make that 110% - I think the cowpats would be preferable.
Brown is treating the voters like fools. He seems to think he can convince us that despite his mindless profligacy that is fast bankrupting the country, he can tell us he will spend more. I don’t think anyone outside the PLP is deceived any more.
At the next election, it will not be a case of whether the budget is cut - it will be by how much, and where the cuts will fall. The LibDems have grasped that and the Tories are making promising if vague noises. Brown looks delusional - as though he claimed that gravity is what keeps objects airbourne.
This has the capacity to be bigger than MPs’ expenses, I think. Someone needs to add up the entire cost of all these expenses, subtract it from the total licence fee revenue, and work out how many pennies they have left to actually spend on their particular brand of left-wing programming.
I watched Newsnight’s Politics Pen the other day. The panel of four pro public spending lefties chosen by the BBC to be impartial (Matther Pillock, Greg dyke, etc) was asked whether they wanted to slash public spending and quangos.
Unsurprisingly the pro public spending lefties chosen by the public sector public funded liberal left BBC to be impartial, a panel of lefties which actually included an ex Director General of the BBC, decided they wanted to keep spending public money on things like the publicly funded BBC by which they were employed and which they used to run.
And thus our licence fee was spent for another day.
meanwhile Corus cutting more than 2000 more jobs. Should do Labour lots of good in heartland areas!
£1400 for a meal for 29 - about £50 each. Not by any means excessive assuming the 29 were people it made sense for the BBC to buy meals for.
If Gordon Brown wins the next election, will the last person to leave please turn out the lights!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_VtzJPpPxkgw/SafgwEZkhqI/AAAAAAAAAJc/FU3EROT_Zr8/s1600-h/Brown+lightbulb.jpg
34 - Someone should introduce Jana to the concept of insurance.
48 - If the BBC had any sense, they would put out a story about immigrants, preferably illegal ones. That would send the Daily Rant right of course!
56 - fair enough, but then that’s a whole other can of worms. Why on earth would a situation arise when the BBC would need to buy a meal for 29 people in Las Vegas?
54. Don’t forget Sir Digby who is an impartial ex-Labour minister.
And the other one was Deborah Mattinson aka Browns private pollster
http://order-order.com/tag/deborah-mattinson/
53. To unite the two threads - I think all this BBC and MP stuff is creating a damn near perfect storm, a public rage against the machine, which will sweep Cameron into power on a promise to slash and burn the public sector, and save our taxes.
If Brown thinks the tide is running FOR more public spending and more state debt, then he is very very wrong.
On topic:
As several of us have pointed out, Danny Finkelstein’s article is a must-read, with the best analysis of the electoral policy battleground that I’ve seen.
For political punters, the key point seems to me the fact that the Tories are refusing to fall into the trap. They are very effectively switching the narrative from ‘Tory Cuts’ to ‘Labour Lies’. What’s more, interventions by Mervyn King and others make it very hard to for Labour to push their fantasy economics. For these reasons, I don’t think Brown is right to think he can win an election on that basis.
If Labour lose the trust of the public, they are finished. And it seems that they are losing that trust.
60 - Maybe the BBC guy lost a game of credit card roulette!
IMHO the fear is not a matter of party politics. Seems to me people know that the national situation is dire. Promises to carry on spending could well fuel the fear rather than assuage it.
60 - Maybe the BBC guy lost a game of credit card roule_tte!
(sorry about the spelling, spam filter)
54, think I watched a little of Newsnight yesterday. Saw Philip Hammond being attacked by Paxman (for a change
) about the Tories perhaps cutting spending… which is a bit like attacking an alcoholic for deciding not to go to the pub.
The best Newsnight panel I ever saw was three handpicked lefty comedians/writers including Stephen K I’mblacksolaughatmyunoriginalstereotypicaljokesoryou’reabigracist Amos, Jan Ravens and someone else all agreeing that the Ross/Brand/Sachs scandal was not all that bad and they just deserved a slap on the wrist.
I wonder how much we will discover the BBC spends on entertaining Labour MPs and hacks such as Muckguire and Michael White? Loads I bet.
Sam Coates, RedBox blog - Battle for control of Parliament
”
There are plenty of things about the government at the moment that suggest they don’t quite have a grip on things.
On Tuesday, the government said that the committee looking at strengthening Parliament wouldn’t be allowed to look at the timetabling of government business.
Today the Lib Dems appear to have persuaded Harriet Harman otherwise.
This is significant because most of the Commons business is examining government legislation.
This is what happened according to the Lib Dems……
David Heath put down an amendment to the motion yesterday to allow Governmental business be looked at by the Wright Committee. The motion was due to be debated today but has been moved to future business. Harman called David this morning to tell him that she would re-write the motion to include his amendment and allow the Wright Committee to include govt business. By my count that’s three climb downs by the Government since Monday.”
Re the Mark Thomson scandal. The answer is this: there is NO situation in which it is justified for the Director General of the BBC to hire a private jet at our expense.
Let him fly first class, if he must, or hire private cars. But he is just a civil servant running a TV company. He is not a minister. There is nothing that urgent in his job, for which he is already very well paid, which might justify a private jet.
If he wants a private jet then let him run a f*cking privatised BBC.
67 - Somebody has to pay for all those pints of ale down the Westminster Arms, and I have a feeling that Muckguire and McPoison try and keep their hands in their pockets as much as possible!
64.”IMHO the fear is not a matter of party politics. Seems to me people know that the national situation is dire. Promises to carry on spending could well fuel the fear rather than assuage it.”
Anne, that is my impression too. Osborne’s strategy to really highlight the level of public debt last year has resonated with the public. That is why Brown’s beloved dividing line of cuts vs investment is not working, and is in fact causing him even further damage. No one wants cuts, but then we didn’t want this recession or level of debt either.
69 - Maybe, Thompson will use the NPMP excuse,
“but please sir, it was too inconvenient not to”
Tennis tip: Judy Murray took tea with Gordon at Downing St this morning. Don’t say you haven’t been warned.
I wish economists would make their minds up. Now it’s Ireland not Britain which is deepest in red ink.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/5632886/Irish-economy-is-the-sickest-of-them-all-IMF-study-claims.html
73 - Oh god, Gordo and “celebs” again. To be honest, surprised he had time, I would have thought he would be spending time all his time with Susan Boyle, helping her through her mental health condition.
Brown winning the election is a future just too horrific to contemplate. Can you imagine the smugness?
If he wins it’ll be because enough voters are stupid enough to be scared by the Tory cuts line… which is what would really make me sad about the country. Brown spends a decade splurging money that we haven’t got and don’t need to spend, therefore spending must always be kept at these levels… do us a favour.
73, oh god no….
We’ll soon discover if Scottish people share the immunity to Brown’s Curse enjoyed by those with black and white ancestry.
This sounds like a good job for SeanT!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/5627747/Wanted-Unemployed-Briton-to-go-on-free-holiday-and-call-it-work.html
He can kill two birds with one stone and do his travel reviews for the company and then submit “Similar” ones for his newspaper ones! Plus of course Sean can bonk loads of lovely birds and write a book about his this ‘two birds in one’ opportunity!
Of course a couple of Grand would be nice SeanT!
I would apply for it myself but my passport is out of date and i dont like hot places!
74 - You know what they say, if you ask 3 economists and you will get 4 outlooks!
Mr Brown’s line of “growth, not cuts” may be right, but it won’t be easy to get that across to an electorate who are drowning in personal debt … if the line doesn’t work on the personal level, convincing people it will work at national level will be hard.
What I find very difficult to believe is that “Gordon Brown - 5 more years!” can ever deliver Labour sufficient votes. The public would have to believe in the Ogre Cameron and also in Sunny J Gordon Brown. That’s a hard ask.
50 Easterross. Not so, since the 2000 passing of the Abolition of Feudal tenure. The barony title formerly attached to Cadboll Castle is now incorpereal heritable property and is now not an estate of land under the Crown. The distillery may now sell the title without reference to the castle.
“This has the capacity to be bigger than MPs’ expenses, I think.”
Perspective please?
Financial shenanigans up to, and including, actual criminal acts by those who rule us comes higher up the scandal-ometer. It’s worthy of further investigation and censure of course but don’t take the focus off parliament and let them off the hook.
18. If Labour can get around 30%, they have a reasonable chance of staying in office with LibDem support.
If they can get around 31.5%, they have a reasonable chance of remaining largest party in the House.
Around 35% would give them a small majority.
60 — BBC nosh-ups in Las Vegas (David)
Dunno why they were there but since the BBC buys from and sells to America, and makes programmes there, I am not as yet outraged.
83 - in terms of the amounts involved, I mean. We’re talking thousands of BBC employees, rather than 646 MPs. I’m not saying in terms of the disgust factor - simply the amount.
re 84. That assumes Rod that the tactical pattern will follow the last three elections.
Oh god, Jon Craig is nearly orgasmic on Sky as he is reading out the list of Tories paying money back. He is literally reading out every MP, every offense, and the amount paid back.
88 (correction) offense -> offence
David Herdson is quite right to point out that it is possible for Brown to win the next election. He’s a betting man. Some serious money could be made by anybody now betting on Brown to win who was subsequently proved right. But, back in the real world, the chances of Brown winning are miniscule to the point of invisibility. The reasons are posted on this site every day by people who put the point better than I can but the upshot of it all is that a Brown victory simply isn’t going to happen. Once the public gets hold of the ‘it’s time for a change’ meme, it’s over for a sitting government and that is now overwhelmingly the public mood.
71. Wasn’t “The Fear” a song by Lily Allen?
77
Zebras??
88, Mr. Craig can get over-excited.
84, ahem. You do realise that the Tory percentage will have an impact on Labour’s seat share?
As for 35%, that’s not going to happen under Brown. 31% may very well not happen.
82 Jack, tell that to the Lord Lyon
84. A vote for the LD is always a vote for Labour!
51. Sustainable? No, I don’t think so. But that wouldn’t stop Labour continuing down that line.
Brown reelected with Balls in the Treasury could run a much less cautious spending policy. Yes, that would almost certainly mean a loss of the AAA rating and if not a gilt-strike then at least a gilt-work-to-rule. Would that stop the government printing money? I wouldn’t bank on it, even if it meant King resigning (cue McBride).
The thing to remember is as Rod points out, even if most of the country ‘gets’ the problem, if Labour can convince enough then they still win - and ‘enough’ isn’t all that many (although it’s a lot more than they’re currently managing to).
83. This won’t be as big as Expensesgate, of course. But it adds to the narrative of a ruling elite (mainly Labour, or at least liberal) which is publicly funded but wants a merchant banker lifestyle.
This is very dangerous for the entire Labour Establishment, and I don’t just mean the party.
People expect bankers to be greedy bastards, that’s what they are there for, and at least they - usually - make big fat taxable profits. And no one has to pay for their jets.
But the idea that civil servants and MPs are aspiring to the same lavish existence, while producing nothing but crap laws and mediocre radio, tut TUT.
60 Maybe they were here http://www.nabshow.com/
96- They just need to convince the BBC surely?
84. Labour got 15% in the biggest and latest election. It’s easy to forget that.
They didn’t get 35%, or 31%, or even 30%. They got…. half that. 15%.
100 Yeah we know, but that’s largely irrelevant to the next GE. By the same measure the Tory vote was sub 30%, below where it was in 2004 and quite a way off the safety of 40%.
94 Easterross. It part of the Scottish law that Lord Lyon administers. Regardless of administration Lord Lyon is part of the Scottish government. It’s hardly a matter of dispute.
87. I’ve seen nothing to suggest it won’t…
100 SeanT. The Tories got 28% at the Euro’s. Hardly likely at the general election is it ?!?
Brown winning the election will be about as likely as me becoming Railways Minister!
104. UKIP + Tories 2009 = 45%
I wonder if the media will be demanding full disclosure of BBC expenses. I mean, like MPs they are public servants.
107, just think, if they found X million not being spent on the BBC’s raison d’etre, both Government and Opposition would have the perfect excuse to slash the licence fee by however much was spent on tosh.
106 Sunil. Monster Raving Loonies + Tories = 107%
Has the election of Obama created a breakthrough on perceptions of racial discrimination in America? According to black Americans, the answer is “no.”
“In the new survey [from CNN/Essence Magazine/Opinion Research Corp.], 55 percent of blacks surveyed believed [racial discrimination] was a serious problem, which is about the same level as it was in 2000.”
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/06/25/obama.poll/index.html
The poll also found that fewer than half of whites feel that Obama has met their expectations.
109. Um, I don’t think so!
And on topic, if Brown gets a majority, with Balls as Chancellor, I’ll be off to Queensland. I’m not having children just so that they can slave away, paying taxes, to right the wrongs of Gordon Brown’s fiscal madness.
It is true Labour recovered from the 2004 Euro drubbing to win (just) in 2005.
But Labour in the 2009 Euros got even less than in 2004.
Add to that the ‘time for a change’ factor, the Tories’ increased competitiveness (and funding), the boundry changes plus Brown’s charisma bypass.
Labour is now in what might be called a ‘McCain situation’ — they could win only if *everything* went right.
But everything never goes all right, does it?
105 Tickets please …. All aboard the Sunil Express !!
Jack W: 2008 Locals Tories = 44%.
What cock-ups will Brown have next week?
106 Tories + UKIP = One big fight.
A betting opportunity perhaps? My money is on that little beauty wielding the Lisbon treaty, a more deadly weapon could not be found.
114. Ah, delusions of grandeur!!
Of course nothing’s impossible, but it would need the following things to happen, all of which in my view are unlikely:
1. Brown to survive the late summer/autumn plotting. Some believe the “deal” has already been done, and that Brown will stage a dignified exit at the conference with Mandelson engineering a smooth handover to Johnson.
2. Cameron and the Tories to implode. This would either have to be in relation to some personal scandal involving Dave or his inner-circle, or in relation to some issue on which the party found itself either catastrophically split or at odds with public opinion. None of these scenarios seem likely.
3. The economy to recover sufficiently to vindicate Gordon’s handling of the downturn in such a way as to outweigh the blame that has attached to him in some quarters for getting us into the whole mess in the first place.
4. The public to change its view of Gordon sufficiently to allow them to contemplate five more years of him. Even if the other three conditions were to be satisfied, this, to my mind, is the biggest ask of all.
104
Jack W
Good point, but I think the political weather is to get rid of Brown and Labour come what may.
If as Rod says Labour 35% and Labour got a small majority out of it, what then, Has a Govt ever got a majority before with being the second party prercentagewise (i havent time today to look it up)
120. 1951
It might almost be worth it to see Labour struggling by from week to week on a majority of, say, 10.
(*Almost* be worth it, mind!)
Presumably Labour’s targeted electors will have some common high-priority concerns. The party will have identified these, and will be looking to find Conservative proposals which threaten those concerns. Easier for them if the Conservatives go into details!
85 I’m assuming that this Las Vegas junket is to the international broadcasters conf that’s held each year.
When I did work for the Beeb it was the jolly to get a ticket to - it’s a giant hob-nobbing event and place to do deals on syndicating shows/sharing investment - it’s a big one for BBC Worldwide to flog their stuff.
Now why they chose the Bellagio [complete with marble cased slot machines] is another matter!
The musical fountain show is amazing if you haven’t seen it.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/apr/22/ad-revenue-decline-puts-pressure-broadcast-confere/
119, 122 The Tories would surely disintegrate. If Cameron fails to win from this position his authority will be destroyed. A Laughing stock or worse.
O/T Del Potro 2 sets to 0 down vs Hewitt
124, assuming there isn’t an unexpected pattern of postal voting of course.
I think my post just got moderated for mentioning sl0t machines!
126 Morris Dancer
You mean an expected pattern of postal voting, surely?
re 122. The Tories in 1951 got more seats on a lower %age.
California will essentially begin issuing scrip next week to pay its bills if a budget deal isn’t reached (and that outcome seems quite likely):
“California’s controller said on Wednesday that he would have to issue IOUs in a week if lawmakers can’t quickly solve a $24 billion budget deficit, and the state’s treasurer plans to tap a reserve fund to meet debt service costs. The measures came as a budget crisis deepened in the most populous U.S. state and the gridlocked legislature failed to pass a proposed $11 billion in cuts.
“Next Wednesday we start a fiscal year with a massively unbalanced spending plan and a cash shortfall not seen since the Great Depression,” Controller John Chiang said in a statement announcing that he would be forced to use IOUs to pay the state’s bills beginning on July 2.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE55O07Q20090625?sp=true
Obama has also stated that he won’t be bailing out the state of California.
Christ, del Potro’d getting absolutely spanked by Hewitt.
& to 132 Labour did it in Feb 74 - more seats on a smaller percentage.
131, I except all parties bar one to be very, very watchful for unusual and unpredicted postal votes and to make sure their beady eyes are on electoral registers.
‘A Laughing stock or worse’
Like Brown?
135 I guess the Tories would go pro-PR.
135 Mike, but not an overall majority, unlike the case in 1951. MacDonald got a similar result in 1929.
121. That largely assumes that Labour will base their strategy on promoting reasons to for for themselves combined with ‘events’ undermining the Tories chances. While the second point may or may not happen, I think that fundamentally misreads Labour’s strategy, which is to highlight reasons *not* to vote Tory and hence the need to ‘keep them out’.
If Labour can do that, it wouldn’t matter if the economy doesn’t recover much (in fact, it would give more credence to the ‘cuts’ claims) or if Brown’s personal ratings *other than trustworthiness* remain in the basement.
138, I hope not, but it’d be more straightforward than gerrymandering the boundaries and introducing fraud-ridden postal voting.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1929
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1951_UK_general_election
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_February_1974
140: If that kind of nilism works…then god help us all
133- Err isn’t California the engine of the US Economy? If it goes bust, isn’t that going to have a…err…”small” effect on the rest of the country? Seems a bit mad not to help out surely?
134- Hewitt must think he is still in Australia (OK OK, it’s not *that* warm
)
California’s a good example of what happens when you give the electorate votes on spending and on taxation.
146 And voter recall!
145, also, Baltacha’s broken Flipkens already. She should win this match.
Interesting to see Peng and Radwanska’s match is very close.
146- Isn’t it more to do with the fact that unlike the other states you need a 2/3 super majority to change tax rates?
140 Have you taken into account how wafer thin Labour’s majorties are in some of the seats it’s defending. It is easy to rattle off a set of seats (Hove, Crawley,.. etc) that would almost certainly fall to any swing and thus deprive Labour a majority without dave getting out of bed. To be safe Labour would have to be more popular that 2005 and the Tories as unpopular as they were under Howard.
Explain how that’s possible!
If Cameron fails to win from this position then the population will be sold on a world market as ready-to-use organ donors
150, don’t despair, Jonathan. When Labour gets thrashed in the GE you’ll finally have a leader who might be half-decent.
Unless Balls becomes Labour leader, obviously.
152- Dennis McShane?
143/144
Curious juxtaposition of comments
153 Sion Simon!!
Hurrah
152 No despair at all. Like you I am a spectator.
Aside from the analysis of Browns performance, I think it is useful to note that the 2005 result was built on some wafer thin majorities. It really flattered Blair.
Brown had a huge task from day one to maintain it.
David Herdson said: “What happens then? If Brown does win, his self-confidence will soar,”
… and he will spend, spend, spend like a drunk with the key to the drinks cabinet and within 2 years UK PLC will be bankrupt and another election will be held that will remove Labour from politics forever.
further 155:
‘Every soldier has a Field Martial’s baton in his knapsack’ -
(except of course for the Field Martial who has it, as it were, in his hand)
156. You are right Jonathan, at least in the sense that Labour’s final majority in 2005 could easily have been halff the size it was, or even less.
OP: “Labour need to win back people who’ve abstained since 1997 or voted for minor parties”.
How many of these “abstainers” are actually “apathetics”, though? Abstaining is quite a positive thing, really. Apathy is a lot harder to change.
146:
do you want more spending: YES!
do you want lower taxes?: YES!
Ummmm isn’t Brown trying the same trick in this country as CA? Where they seem to be leading, we follow.
121 Paul - ref your 4. Its not just the public. More importantly it means Gordon Brown has to change. He promised his party that he would be more consensual, consultative, agree the approach.
Since the start of his June 09 Re-Launch we’ve had tales a Cabinet disarray over the 10% Cuts Campaign (and general press derision), the big Iraq Inquiry announcement was over-shadowed by objections resulting from lack of consultation. His external oversight for MPs looks equally ill thought out and is likely to blow back in his face. That’s with Mandelson (& it seems Woodward) helping on devising strategy - they can’t change him.
Going back even further, both elections in 1910 and the 1874 election also resulted in more seats for the second most popular party.
144- We’re in uncharted waters here. I don’t think anybody is quite sure just what will happen if California just stops paying its bills. One of the huge problems the California legislature has been having during this recession is the requirement that tax increases be approved by two-thirds majorities in both the state house and senate. Since the Dems don’t quite have two-thirds majorities, you have a situation where the Dems reject proposed spending cuts and Republicans are able to reject tax increases. Result: no budget approval.
A few months ago, California went through another traumatic budget fixing process, where the GOP finally caved and gave the Dems their desired tax increases but pledged they wouldn’t do it again. So here we are.
First-time filings for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased last week, while experts had been anticipating a decline:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-jobless-claims-rise-apf-2700603336.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
re 153 - A modest claim to fame that I have is that in 1977 I beat Dennis McShane in an election for the NUJ national executive and took his place.
Paddy Power Sun Editor stakes
11/8 Dominic Mohan
9/2 Victoria Newton
5/1 Andy Coulson
5/1 Chris Pharo
6/1 Richard Wallace
8/1 Col Allan
8/1 Fergus Shanahan
14/1 Colin Myler
14/1 Pete Picton
16/1 Gordon Smart
20/1 Paul Dacre
25/1 Stefano Hatfield
25/1 Dawn Neesom
50/1 Kelvin Mackenzie
100/1 Ellis Watson
100/1 Piers Morgan
500/1 Jeremy Paxman
Sorry Mike, looks like there wasn’t a majority for the Tories in 1951 (an incorrect seats total in the Wiki article fooled me - now rectified). But they were mighty close!
152 Bob Ainsworth!!
167.David, have I missed something?
169: Keith Vaz!!!
(ok getting a bit silly now)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1979
“Callaghan then considered calling an election in the autumn of 1978 but ultimately decided that a possible economic upturn in 1979 could favour his party at the polls.”
History repeating itself? Maybe?
I think that the country has had more than enough of James Gordon Brown!
Iain Dale - LibDems Replace Chris Rennard
“The LibDems have announced the appointment of Chris Fox as their new Chief Executive. He replaces Chris Rennard, who is quitting the post in September. Fox is a communications expert who was hired to improve Nick Clegg’s image and pull together the LibDems’ communications strategy. All in all he has done a very good job in a very short time. I suspect he will find the rather disperate nature of the Liberal Democrat organisation very frustrating, and although he isn’t steeped in the party in the same way as Rennard, I think his appointment is a formidable one. He is not to be underestimated.”
164- Hmmmm intresting, thanks. I say give the whole state to Mexico!
Fox and Rennard? That’s quite amusing…..
174 He has done a good job.
170 - Rebekah Wade is being promoted to CEO of NI in September so the Editor’s chair will be vacant.
Mohan has long been seen as the heir apparent so better than evens seems like value. However, it does seem strange that the announcement was not made at the same time as Rebekah’s promotion. That could be because the Editor of The Sun is a much higher profile job than any of the jobs above it (Rupert excepting). She might not have wanted Dominic Mohan to get the headlines on the day she got the big step upstairs.
Andy Coulson could be in with a shout but I would have thought that would have been more likely if this announcement had been made post-election.
172. Yes - it’s worth looking at that period quite carefully. Labour did engineer a very nice bounce in household disposable income in the run up to the 1979 election - but still lost.
Of course it may well be the case that had they not done so, the margin of defeat would have been even larger…
Berlusconi now 9/4 on the “First world leader to go” market
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&disp_cat_id=56&ev_class_id=33&ev_type_id=11684&ev_oc_grp_ids=111063&bir_index=
re 123 and more recently February 1974
140. Perhaps this is what gives the impression to some that Labour are in Opposition mode. E.g the “x days to save the Minimum Wage” campaign.
179. VAT rise due in January, real Mortgage rates up above 5% again - disposable income is not going up.
Remeber when i went to the house of commons select committee! I said the LD candidate said she was unemployed and proved she was not!
http://www.halifaxcourier.co.uk/news/Diane-quits-in-disgust.5394595.jp
178.Thanks David. Is she still married to Ross Kemp?
interesting piece:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2009/06/sound_the_retreat.cfm
Brown must surely now accept he did not put an end to ‘Boom’n'Bust’.
Is it possible he also sees the return of a Conservative government as cyclical?
What if, instead, Brown is determined to trash Blair’s reputation?
The state of the country is really Blair’s fault?
The bad hand that Brown has been forced to play is really Blair’s hand?
A genius Chancellor betrayed by a lying PM who was determined to win three GEs
Public inquiries into Iraq would certainly tarnish Blair’s reputation…
185 - No she recently married for the second time to Charlie Brooks
re 167 David R, doesn’t shadsy fancy your chances then?
Obama made at least one serious political error in his ABC-sponsored infomercial about his effort to overhaul the healthcare system. That is, he refused to commit to accepting the same quality of care for himself and his family that he would impose on others:
“President Obama struggled to explain today whether his health care reform proposals would force normal Americans to make sacrifices that wealthier, more powerful people — like the president himself — wouldn’t face…
Dr. Orrin Devinsky, a neurologist and researcher at the New York University Langone Medical Center, said that elites often propose health care solutions that limit options for the general public, secure in the knowledge that if they or their loves ones get sick, they will be able to afford the best care available, even if it’s not provided by insurance.
Devinsky asked the president pointedly if he would be willing to promise that he wouldn’t seek such extraordinary help for his wife or daughters if they became sick and the public plan he’s proposing limited the tests or treatment they can get.
The president refused to make such a pledge, though he allowed that if “it’s my family member, if it’s my wife, if it’s my children, if it’s my grandmother, I always want them to get the very best care.”
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/HealthCare/story?id=7919991&page=1
This is reminiscent of his decision to put his daughters into elite DC private schools while terminating voucher programs that had previously allowed academically exceptional poor DC children to attend those same private schools instead of being stuck in the atrocious DC public school system.
186 bono publico
I agree entirely with Bagehot about the debate yesterday.
It was probably the best Parliamentary debate we’ve had in months - and yet not a single newspaper has, to my knowledge, carried a detailed report of it.
re 168 Sunil the Tories did win a majority in 1951 - sufficent to govern for a full term. National Liberals were Tories under another name.
188 - It would represent a rather surprising turn in fortunes I must say!
I don’t know that Ladbrokes have priced this up yet. There are some shockingly short prices in that PP list though. Does anyone seriously think Paul Dacre is a good price?
Stefano Hatfield is probably the best of the long prices, though it would be a truly ENORMOUS promotion.
183. Plus unemployment of course…so all in all looks rather worse than 1979…
FPT,
“New thread, pleaseee! Every page re-fresh is an aberration, why should we be constantly subjected to photos of an overweight, wheezing Brown (in triplicate no less)?”
You’re a cruel man MikeS. Do you really think a grinning Gordon is an improvement?
194 SSC It is an improvement! I get distressed by negative images!
“sacrifices that wealthier, more powerful people — like the president himself — wouldn’t face”
Exactly how different is that to the situation with US healthcare now?
Pre 1918 elections oughtn’t to be taken into account in looking at parties coming second in terms of votes but first in seats as (a) typically, large numbers of seats were uncontested and (b) there were wild variations in constituency size.
192 - Surely Coulsons resignation from the News of the World and the criminal goings on preclude him from having a chance?
196- Indeed, you’ve put your finger on it. Healthcare reform that will cover tens of millions of currently uninsured and underinsured will necessarily require rationing and redistribution of resources away from those who now enjoy them. But that won’t apply to Obama, who is wealthy enough to self-insure (i.e., pay for higher quality healthcare out of his own pocket). ‘Sacrifice for thee but not for me’ is not a very inspiring slogan for his proposals.
199 S&S I’m curious, you seem to be on a one man anti Obama mission. After the debacle of GWB and the collapse of the GOP. I have to ask why?
189 - The Berlusconi odds are falling with each revelation.
http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/world/italian-prostitute-says-she-slept-with-berlusconi-416294.html
Patrizia D’Addario said that the only way he could be confused about her identity was because “there were so many other young women who looked just like me” at the parties he threw at his residence.
199 - But the wealthy will always be insulated. At least this way the millions currently uninsured will be helped. Doing nothing because the rich will, as they are now, be fine, seems pointless.
198 Coulson didn’t do anything illegal - one of his employees did.
201. Belusconi has a brass neck - he’ll tough out more than most.
Early days I know, but I would say Obama’s re-election has to be almost as big a cert as Brown’s defeat.
204
One guy who goes to any lengths to enhance his reputation
tim, while your here. Will the Keens be facing the star chamber or will they be ok because the are Gordo’s mates?
Some more BBC claims,
£160 on theatre tickets to recognise ‘extraordinary commitment’
£85.25 on engraved Tiffany cufflinks as a ‘talent gift’
£231.55 in July 2004 to cover dinner to ‘discuss Jeremy Paxman’s contract’, and also claims for lunches with David Dimbleby and Andrew Marr.
Hold on but all 3 of those already work for the BBC, why are we paying for them to have nice lunches together?
199. I’m increasingly of the view this latest healthcare crusade will founder as previous ones have. Apart from anything else, the economic backdrop is very unhelpful.
“Belusconi has a brass neck - he’ll tough out more than most.”
Plus he owns most of the media…..
Hello everyone!
*Defends Holy Sepulchre*
202- You’re missing the point. The effects will extend to most people who are currently insured, not merely the uninsured. Tens of millions of middle-class insured people will ultimately receive lower-quality care, but Obama is insulating himself from the deleterious effects of his own policies. It’s the hypocrisy that matters: many middle-class folks will be expected to sacrifice but he exempts himself from that sacrifice. If he were as politically astute as many claim he is, he would pledge to subject himself to the same care that he thinks will be so great for others.
207 - I think they’ll face the star chamber, as they, along with Nadine Dorries only have a notional main home I think they should face a fraud investigation.
Heres a full list of gesture paybacks today by those without Daves Mates protective performance prophylactics.
http://www1.sky.com/news/Scrutiny%20Panel%20New%20Repayments.pdf
200- If you think I’m the only American who sees the danger in Obama’s policies, you haven’t met many Americans. More and more people are beginning to see what’s happening, and those numbers will continue to increase as “hope” gives way to reality.
But let me ask you, will you cease criticizing the Tories when they have wiped the floor with Labour at the next election, after the debacle of Brown and collapse of the Labour Party?
Is it cos I is black, I mean a women?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8117927.stm
No darling, it is cos you are a troughing lying authoritarian scumbag.
“You’re missing the point.”
I’m not at all. You’re clutching at straws. Firstly, it’s not a given that they will receive lower healthcare. European healthcare systems seem to manage this rather well. Secondly, whatever he does to the healthcare system, being rich means he can opt out. he can’t help that. That’s the way life is - if you are wealthy, you have more options. So suggesting this as a flaw of his proposals is meaningless, as it’s not in anyway connected to the proprosals he has made.
208
What is a ‘Talent Gift’?
A gift of Talent (magic cufflinks)?
A gift to ‘Talent’?
212, Surprisingly we disagree again. They will not face the star chamber. He cannot take the risk of another resignation from cabinet and take the chance of yet another self inflicted by election.
“those without Daves Mates protective performance prophylactics.”
You are aware that the list you link to includes “Daves (sic) Mates”?
Brown has NEVER been right. I know you have to write something but this is just baloney.
Of course Labour ‘might’ win the next election but it will not be anything to do with this 10% cuts rubbish. That is so blatantly a lie that all the commentators and half the cabinet know it. The facts are that Labour have billions of cuts stored up - its there in black and white in the budget and Brown mumbled as much at PMQs.
On top of which the OECD are pointing to an even deeper recession this year. And the Governor of the BoE has laid into the govt for not setting out any policies for reducing the deficit.
Browns main policy is to bribe us with our own money.
205- Maybe he’ll change the constitution and win a thrid term! He is the new FDR after all…
Any updates on Mr Malik claims? Or is he too busy moving into his new ministerial office, before returning for a nice massage in front of his massive gogglebox?
220
If Brown comes up with a new deal, I’ll ask for a fresh deck.
218 - One or two but no Osbornes Goves Vaizeys etc
He will have to toss away a couple of his used mates as a gesture, but that will be after the second jobs thing hits.
215- Frankly, it’s apparent that you still don’t see the issue here.
To put it differently, you must think that the NYU doctor who asked Obama the question is clutching at straws too. He realizes that many people who currently have private plans would end up with public coverage as a result of Obama’s plans. In light of that, here is his statement again:
“Dr. Orrin Devinsky, a neurologist and researcher at the New York University Langone Medical Center, said that elites often propose health care solutions that limit options for the general public… Devinsky asked the president pointedly if he would be willing to promise that he wouldn’t seek such extraordinary help for his wife or daughters if they became sick and the public plan he’s proposing limited the tests or treatment they can get. The president refused to make such a pledge.”
The recovery starts here: Well perhaps my recovery. Not sure that me joining the Civil Service as an a temporary executive officer in the Job Centre will help the country much.
It is not something that excites me but it is a job, and may help some others to get back into work (though not sure from my experience of attending the job centre).
As an employer the DWP are not very impressive panicky phone calls - can I start next week? Then an email saying start a week on Monday, then another correcting the first. No idea what I am to be paid (not a lot) or the hours or anything else really - two pages on the choice of pensions, which in case I live to be as old as Jack is a comfort. Apparently I can chose a “nuvos” or a “partnership” scheme. No not a clue what they mean either!
Actually they need me in the marketing department -getting rid of the people who think these things up, but never mind!
OMG, Gordo is at it again,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8118670.stm
Terrorist attacks on our country, smiley smiley,….
198 - I think the fact he’s working for Cameron is more a factor. I thought Rebekah Wade had been told to stay until the election by Murdoch for that reason.
220. Some of his supporters appear to have ambitions for him far beyond merely emulating FDR.
For them, nothing less than sainthood will do, with the chosen one superseding in importance George Washington, Lincoln, and the so-called founding fathers combined.
228. St Uncle Tom ?
226 (cont ) “While we lend the world in cyber security”
He can’t help but lie all the time now, can he? How can he even say that with a straight face, what is the UK famous for in cyber security?
230- There’s that guy who broke into the Pentagon computer to look for UFO details
On thread: Gordo won’t win because
a) The majority of the voters don’t like him
b) The majority of the MSM don’t like him
c) Significant sections of the Labour Party don’t like him
d) He has no strategy, only tactics (mostly outdated)
e) The country is in one hell of a mess, and guess who most people blame?
f) His team is divided, tainted, mostly incompetent and there aren’t any quality replacements
g) He lies a lot - and worse, the electorate is starting to notice
He’s history.
205- Given the differences in the odds between the two scenarios, there’s a lot of money for you to make by placing a bet on Obama(although it may take a while for you to collect!). Still, based on your evaluation, a big bet on Obama’s re-election sounds like a better investment than just about any other investment vehicle you could name today.
229.
I’m just dipping in, so here’s an off-topic anecdote that will hopefully be enjoyed…
In the pub at lunchtime the other day, a colleague announced that he had voted for a minor party in the Euro elections.
Which party? asks I.
His reply: Labour in the South East region!
226 - why does he smile when delivering bad news - it’s really creepy - and bathed in blue UFO light does nothing for him.
I see Smearbot is misrepresenting Tories announcement on repayments, saying but but but no Squeaky, no Gove, no real pay backs by shadow cabinet, it because they have already done so. This lot to today is the new extra stuff, another £125k, on top of £125k already paid back.
The clue is in the BBC title,
Tory MPs pay back £125,000 MORE…It doubles to about £250,000 the amount being paid back by Tory MPs in total
228- Obama: too big to fail.
237 (cont) from say BBC report,
Frontbenchers who had already agreed to repay money include George Osborne, Michael Gove and Alan Duncan.
I see Labour MPs are to use a little pledge card to show that they aren’t going to be lying, lazy, cheating piglets next time around.
Well that’s shortened Gordon’s odds of winning - not.
238- He could copy Belarus and declare him President for Life!
233 - You may like to have a look at the comparisons between US health and Canadian Health systems.
The US spend nearly twice as much per head while wasting so much of it in admin and isurance/litigation an other costs that its estimated that compared to the figure of 5% of Canadians who get substandard health care, its 40% in the USA.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_and_American_health_care_systems_compared
240
Can Gordon sign it though?
237 - Did Gove pay back the Hotel bill for his children? or Osborne CGT?
Its all gesture nonsense.
The biggest payback is Jacqui Lait £25k but it was estimated that she’d avoided £180,000 in CGT, so wheres the logic?
I notice you are very keen on looking at the BBCs expenses claims.
Apply the same standards to Cameron,Osborne , Gove et al and you ain’t got much of a front bench left.
191. I’ve updated the 1951 wiki article, based on my copy of the Times Guide to the House of Commons 1951…
Weird coincidence alert -
“In Tehran, state television’s Channel Two is putting on a “Lord of the Rings” marathon, part of a bigger push to keep us busy. Movie mad and immunized from international copyright laws, Iranians are normally treated to one or two Hollywood or European movie nights a week. Now it’s two or three films a day.”
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2009/06/24/tehran_seven/index.html
243 He’s got a special one with ‘I was brought up to only speak the truth’ on his
242- It’s interesting that you mentioned litigation. Obama pointedly refused to consider reining in medical malpractice litigation, much to the dismay of the American Medical Association members to whom he was speaking and, no doubt, much to the delight of his allies, the trial lawyers. Failure to tackle that source of extraordinary expense knocks out one of the best ways Obama could reduce cost in the healthcare system.
134.
“del Potro’d getting absolutely spanked by Hewitt.”
No doubt Chamereon is even now signing him up for the Tory ‘A’ list’!
BBCPrivateJetGate updated
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/jun/25/bbc-expenses-mark-thompson-private-jet-jana-bennett
OT
Lions, anyone gonna sell the Bocks supremacy at 6ish?
244 - You can’t even get that right, your smear DB is clearly outdated
“Michael Gove, a key ally of Mr Cameron who has already repaid more than £7,000 for furniture and a hotel bill”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5351196/MPs-expenses-David-Cameron-backs-plan-to-return-second-home-profits.html
And Cameron, you seem to think he has done something wrong, most people don’t agree with you, I certainly don’t.
North Korea might not be ready yet to meet Obama at the bargaining table:
“North Korea threatened Wednesday to wipe the United States off the map as Washington and its allies watched for signs the regime will launch a series of missiles in the coming days.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090624/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear_91
223.
“(Chamereon).. will have to toss away a couple of his used mates as a gesture”
Comparing GideO to a leaky prophylactic? Well below the belt sir!
251 (cont) I haven’t seen Cameron using tax payers money to claim for 200 miles flights in private jets or paying for the cost of family holidays. Maybe I missed those revelations in the Telegraph.
Aren’t Cameron’s flight paid for by tax avoiding fat cats?
Gordo relaunch 59429
Gordon Brown has outlined a four point plan to win the next election including a pledge to make Labour a “disciplined, united and campaigning party”.
He said voters wanted to see them clean up politics, help people through the recession and “put forward our vision”.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8119351.stm
251. One thing I would say about all these repayments, from members of all parties -
Isn’t it remarkable how easily they seem to be able to raise quite large sums? With a mere flourish of the pen, the cheques are written..almost seems like ‘easy come, easy go’.
Doesn’t that once again suggest NPRIP’s claims that no-one goes into politics to make money to be quite false?
If NK god forbid ever launched a nuke, wouldn’t pretty much the entire country turn into a large wide piece of glass? (Ditto Iran)
Where do you guys keep getting these Brown pictures from? Dear, oh dear. oh dear….
OT A very novel defence argument
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1195175/Twins-trial-assault-victim-identify-brother-hit-him.html?ITO=1490
Thompson bang to rights,
“This was a Cessna plane chartered from Maine to Boston in order to interrupt a family holiday and return to London to deal with an urgent staff issue. The charter was approved in advance by the chairman of the board of governors,” a note attached to the expenses claims states.”
So he had time to get on the phone to the chairman in advance, and then set up a charter flight. It was so urgent, but he managed to do that, so please explain why did he need a plane to travel 200 miles to Boston airport then, as it is only a 4hr drive?
Anyone interested in the Irish Vote on the Lisbon Treaty:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&disp_cat_id=56&ev_class_id=33&ev_type_id=9403
How do I make the above a click-able link ?
261. Says the staff issue was Yentob’s expenses
Blows £2k on expenses to solve an expenses scandal
:D
258 Yes.
I rather liked Rod Liddle’s remark that being threatened by North Korea is like being threatened by a psycopathic gerbil.
262 Please ignore “how do I make it a click-able link
256 Oh sh1t “The pledge also commits candidates to “prudence with public money”
So that’s another £50000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 down the toilet then.
255, as opposed to the tax paying thin cats that pay for Brown and Banana Mans flights.
258- I pity the president who has to make that call.
266 - Gordo’s best friend, prudence, making a come back
I note Gordo’s priority is to “tackle the recession” - no word about cleaning up the sh*t after.
And Cameron, you seem to think he has done something wrong, most people don’t agree with you, I certainly don’t.
Dave put in false mortgge claims please keep up, he coughed last week.
The BBC expense just keep coming,
Jana Bennett, On a trip to meet studio bosses in Los Angeles in May 2007, Ms Bennett claimed more than £1,300 for a stay at the luxury Raffles l’Ermitage hotel in Beverly Hills.
Very nice! Bellagio, Raffles, these BBC execs like their expensive hotels!
264. Funny how when these insufferab;ecommentators chuck colourful insults around, it always sounds eerily like they’re describing themselves. Rod Liddle fits the bill as a pyschopathic gerbil, while Quentin Letts is a ’strange, bumptious little man’, with a voice that is ‘not a harmonious instrument, his phraseology and accent being weirdly mannered, orotund, confected’, ‘a show-off whose personality is as undercooked as a two-minute egg’.
251.
“Cameron, you seem to think he has done something wrong, ”
No Oracle, most people KNOW he’s done something wrong: it’s fair to say that what he’s done wrong is no worse than about 70 per cent of MPs and there are many worse in all parties, including the new ‘denial’ Speaker. So unless we clear out the stables entirely, Chamereon himself is not high in the firing line for what he’s done personally. I don’t reckon that is true for his blatant ’sheeps and goats’ attitude to the big offenders in his own Party though. And many Tory MPs feel the same way.
tim, is your real fear of Cameron that when he becomes PM he is going to cut your benefits or force you out to work? If so that explains a great deal.
P.S here is a link dedicated to your lifes “work”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/24/astroturfing-advertising-twitter-politics
262 Divad
Both sides seem more or less correctly priced to me.
I can’t see any way that the Irish will vote no again based on current evidence.
245. Rod thanks, although I added “National Liberal allies” just to clarify.
264- A psychopathic gerbil with long-range missiles and nukes, that is.
274. zzzzzzzzz
“Dave put in false mortgge claims”
“Dave” overpaid and then underpaid during the course of a year as a result of changes to his mortgage deal. That’s not putting in false mortgage claims, no matter what spin you put on it.
The Vegas trip apparently was £2,500 for three-days. Don’t think he was in the bog standard rooms do you?
And the “wreath-esque” claims are starting to come in,
Tim Davie, director of audio and music, spent nearly £130 on a discussion on Sport Relief and also charged £407.25 for a “Children in Need business discussion”.
Just have this vision of Smashie and Nicey when I read that, all about the “CHARITY”.
List of extra repayments to be made by Conservative MPs
Who is Eleanor Laing? 25k OTHER !!!
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/files/ch-scrutiny-panel-new-repayments.pdf
Looks like 80% of repayments are coming from a handful of MPs
250 On the BBC’s expenditure discomfort, can’t see how they can splash on this any less than they did the troughingMP’s expenses, eh?
Nevermind, if they don’t give the story enough of a boost, I’m sure a certain Mr Murdoch will be writing in…into The Times, The Sun, Sky etc etc etc….
280 - The claims didn’t match what he paid on his mortgage.
He put in false claims.
264. “being threatened by a psycopathic gerbil.”
Given Liddel’s personal life, I’m sure he has had such encounters frequently. Quentin Letts would never attack you physically, would he?
282 Mrs Laing, the shadow junior justice minister, claimed more than £80,000 from the public purse towards mortgage interest and service payments on two adjacent flats she bought in Westminster, even though her constituency home is less than an hour’s journey away by Tube.
She was able to claim parliamentary expenses on the flats because she nominated them as her second home, and she reiterated last night that she had “always regarded” the flats as her second home. When she sold the flats last year for £1.8 million, she made at least £1 million profit, which would have left her with a £180,000 capital gains tax bill if she had declared the flats as her second home to HM Revenue & Customs.
The logic of £25k?
A gesture.
*POLL WATCH*
We should get a YouGov/Telegraph poll tonight. Last YouGov poll for the Sunday Times had the Conservatives at 40%.
191. Ah yes, I see that the National Liberals were allied with the Tories.
O/T Some people on here already know, but according to my Wikipedia User page, “Sunil” means “blue” in ancient Sanskrit
273 Mr Meteor, do you do irony?
“Funny how when these insufferab;ecommentators chuck colourful insults around, it always sounds eerily like they’re describing themselves”
Its all over for Labour. Any dreams to the contrary are just that, dreams.
To be honest, my thought on reading the details of the BBC executive expenses on the website is that they should probably stay in cheaper hotels in future but there is nothing there that would raise shareholder eyebrows if they appeared on executive expenses for a FTSE 100 PLC (or one of the newspapers running with the story). They were expenses legitimately incurred in the course of performing their jobs and the totals when you tot them up are unspectacular. The bills could have been lower for some individual items, however.
It is nothing like the MP expenses, where it is clear MPs claimed for things that had nothing to do with doing their jobs and where some claims appear to have been based on lies.
275 Don TOO… and in the comments
“The Labour government has persuaded party members to pose as “real people”, writing to local papers, supporting campaign visits and organising demos with folksy, handwritten banners.”
Astroturfing! Oh bloody hell! Quitzapple where are you
274 - Please tell me what Cameron has deliberately done wrong?
He claims a large amount for his mortgage interest, nothing wrong with that, he claimed exactly what the rules stated was appropriate and acceptable. If you say that was wrong, it is like arguing a GP is wrong for getting paid way over the odds for the job they do.
He paid back for fixing his roof, the outside lighting and removal of wisteria, again he says he wants to set an example and pay it back, personally I don’t see that as wrong use of expenses. No improvements, just maintenance on the property.
The mortgage thing that Smearbot bangs on about, £20 a month, due to a change in circumstances and I believe a mistake, and is no hanging offence. And what there was some other minor bits and pieces of under / then over payments by the fees office.
From what I can remember of Cameron’s expenses claims, the only thing that seemed questionable was the large fee for the website work, that seemed OTT to me.
Francis Maude on the other hand…..
“being threatened by a psycopathic gerbil.”
Bit like when the Liberal Democrats threaten a breakthrough!
Someone call that Mr Clegg a Yellow Taxi! I have known a legless drunk fall on his face less than Clegg and the Liberal Democrats!
284 - You often go very close to overstepping the requirements of the laws of libel and I think you have gone too far here. The words that you use would have a normal connotation that the person to whom you refer had committed fraud. Simon Singh, among others, would be able to tell you how it is no defence to be able to show that was not your intended meaning. I would urge our host to delete it and all that refer to it.
why does no one admit that MPs had a tax free expense account of £24K per annum which must have been agreed with HMRC?
What is really sad about tim is that he genuinely has skills that would be useful in the work place. Yet he prefers to sit at home on benefits beavering away at supporting “his” Government. This waste of a life is more to be pitied than laughed at. There is no smear, lie or indeed the truth he can publish on here that will have the slightest impact on how people vote. In the grand scheme of things this site has a tiny readership and no influence on politics outside the small world of us anoraks.
tim, have a bath, put on a clean shell suit and go outside and enjoy the sunshine. You never know you may even meet a girl (hint, they are the ones with the lumpy chests) you know it makes sense.
296. Not so much agreed but imposed!
291 - How is a 200 mile flight on a private plane, when it was faster to drive, “a legitimately incurred in the course of performing their jobs”?
293.
“personally I don’t see that as wrong use of expenses.”
No, but was not your brown hair dye directly-acquired from a pretend cyclists sygmoid colon?
Leading American apologists for the regime in Tehran explain their rationale:
“As the Islamic Republic becomes “delegitimized” in American public opinion, it will be impossible for Obama to engage Tehran, and, in the eyes of many Americans, he will have no basis to continue telling Israel that it should not launch military strikes against Iranian nuclear targets. As realism about Iran evaporates in Washington, American officials are losing sight of the fact that policies of isolation or punishment would be disastrous for strategic stability in the broader Middle East.”
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/everything-is-legal-dont-worry-about-it.html#more
Foreign Policy Journal : Rafsanjani vs Ahmadi-nejad
June 12th was a coup d’état by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against Hashemi Rafsanjani and his family oligarchy. …
Using his political influence as President of Iran, and Speaker of the Parliament, Rafsanjani created a vast family dynasty. Initiating the liberalization of the economy after the war with Iraq, Rafsanjani ushered an ambitious privatization program, allowing members of his family, and other insiders, to take possession of state property at far bellow market prices. …By the end of the 1990s, the economic power of the family was unparalleled in Iran’s private sector. In recent years, however, the family dynasty has been facing fierce competition, particularly from IRGC.
Since the 1990s, IRGC slowly transformed itself from a sheer military force, to a complex military, political, and economic oligarchy in control of main arteries of the Iranian economy. It is now a large holding company with multi-billion dollar, legal and illegal, contracts in oil, water, electricity, transport, foreign trade, and other economic sectors.
…
The 2005 presidential victory of Mahmood Ahmadinejad, a former Revolutionary Guard, provided IRGC with a new advantage in its economic war with competitors. Rafsanjani ran unsuccessfully against Ahmadinejad, losing the race…
Ahmadinejad vowed to fight and eliminate the “oil mafia.” Appointing veteran guardsmen to cabinet positions, he gave IRGC the control of nine ministries, including Defense, Energy, and the lucrative Ministry of Petroleum, a stronghold of Rafsanjani family, the “oil mafia.” … IRGC aggressively penetrated areas once dominated by the Rafsanjani family.
Since the election of Ahmadinejad in 2005, the National Oil Company of Iran awarded IRGC a no-bid contract to develop the 15th and 16th phases of South Pars Gas, and another contract to build a 600-mile “peace pipeline” from Iran to Pakistan and India. IRGC also received a large contract to build a 900-kilometer pipeline from the Persian Gulf in the south to Sistan and Baluchestan in Iran’s southeast.
…Mahmood Ahamadinejad’s attack on Rafsanjani and his family during his televised debate with Mir Hossein Mousavi was a calculated move, a political maneuver paving the ground for an all out war in later weeks and months. …
More here :http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2009/06/25/iran’s-many-wars/
re 245. Rod - Shouldn’t it be made clear that in 1951 the National Liberals were in partnership with the Conservatives and that a more accurate representation would be to lump them together? The way it appears in Wiki is misleading.
You have included the Co-operative party as part of Labour and the National Liberals should be treated in the same way.
291 Paying for cab to get a secretary home after a night out?
Since when was that a legitimate expense to be borne by the telly tax payer?
I notice that the BBC are going with the ‘within the rules’ / ’signed off by somebody else’ argument.
Tsk, tsk - they clearly haven’t twigged that the Court of Public Opinion doesn’t play by their rules.
re 291. Very good point.
289. First of all, thankyou for the courtesy of the Mister, and as you don’t give a surname I hope you’ll forgive me for addressing you as Master Plato. Now my embarrassing confession here is that I don’t actually know what you mean, so maybe that suggests I’m not as hot on irony as I thought. I can think of two possible interpretations of your question - a) I have chucked a colourful insult around myself that you think sounds eerily like me, or b) you think there was some sort of self-effacing irony in Letts’ criticism of Bercow that I didn’t spot. Or maybe there’s a third possibility I haven’t thought of. But if by any chance it was option b, I think I can safely say no - Letts is just a berk with no self-awareness at all.
294.
“I have known a legless drunk…..”
By the time you reach six of these a relationship may not be out of the question. Next step will be the magical job. But I think, tim, you will have to abandon this ‘Martin’ persona to concentrate on the massaged CV.
297. “What is really sad about tim is that he genuinely has skills”
Thats why i dont get why he does it! Labour have made him unemployed! Fair enough if he cannot get a job - I know how that feels but to pedle the utter shat he does in the hope he will help Labour is beyond belief!
Tim would be better off getting likeminded people to clear there local areas of dogshit because at least that stops the LD from getting a toehold in his area!
299 - It may well have been wasteful (though I don’t know the details and neither do you). But it isn’t illegitimate because he was clearly returning to London urgently for work reasons. It would have been illegitimate if he was returning to watch a football match or whatever.
Illegitimate implies a degree of dishonesty. Waste doesn’t - and if you look overall at the expenses claims they are not extravagant taken as a whole (although I would wholeheartedly agree any waste is too much).
Gordo lies are getting more and more stupid,
”
“They (Tories) would take away all the measures that would help the unemployed.”
So, David Cameron would scrap all JobCentres and unemployment benefits? Really?”
http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2009/06/gordon-browns-new-fib/
310.
““They (Tories) would take away all the measures that would help the unemployed.””
Patently ridiculous! When have Tories ever threatened bankers’ bonuses?
310
Not sure who is smearing more now, Gordo or Tim, its a tight race thats for sure.
Undoubtedly Tim knows how to put a case, sadly its invariably full of holes.
Anyone seen Ken about of late, I dont recall him posting recently.
306 It’s Madam
310. Crikey that is desperate by Gordon!
He creates mass uneployment and tries to claim that his opponents will take any assistance away! Why Gordon Brown does not change his name to Robert Mugabe i do not know!
309 - Most of the claims are wastage, I didn’t disagree on that, but some issues it is very similar to MP’s expenses. Mark Thompson flights issue, it is more than simply wastage.
£2.3k for flights for the whole family to fly back from Italy, plus he charged the hotel bill and extras for the week to the BBC.
OK, so lets say he had to come back, it was Sachs-gate, so maybe he needed (still think his deputy could have dealt with it for a day or two). Why are we paying for his family to come back with him? Why are we paying for the hotel, he and his family had used and should be using for the rest of the week? There is no reason for us to be paying for the rest of his family to come home a couple of days early and charge the whole holiday to the BBC.
312 - ken did a long economics post last night.
312. Either yesterday or today!
I responded to a well crafted point he made! Very persusive!
315 Exactly - free money fosters an entitlement culture.
£48k on champers in one year speaks for itself.
Even Krug at £100 a bottle is still 4800 bottles drank by 23,101 employees [I suspect not on a equal basis!]
Iran, unsurprisingly, is engaging in “saber rattling,” mentioning Israel in particular, as it seeks to reassert itself after its embarrassment and humiliation of the past two weeks:
“Amid the domestic unrest — the worst since the Iranian revolution 30 years ago — Tehran scrambled to demonstrate its military might to the rest of the world.
The Iranian air force said Wednesday it had successfully tested a new line of sophisticated bombs and radar-evading aircraft in a three-day exercise over the Persian Gulf. Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar told state media the Iranian military stood ready to repel any attack. “If anybody intends to intrude into the Islamic Republic, we will give them the most crushing response,” he told reporters after a cabinet meeting Wednesday, according to state media.
He cited Israeli “threats.” The saber rattling carries historical overtones, harking back to 1980 when Iraq appeared to take advantage of the chaotic aftermath of the Iranian revolution to launch an invasion of Iran.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124583232591946385.html
So Brown’s scared of being unemployed.
OK …
:o.,
310 Gordon is of course intending to pay for these measures by taxing employment by raising NI contributions from both employers & employees. He is the most shameless liar we have ever had as PM (and I include Tony Blair).
318 my maths chip has broken - 480 bottles!
315 - Its a really sneaky fiddle, coming home early from holiday for no financial gain.
Whatever the circumstances you’ll struggle to equate it to the MPS claims.
315 - If I had to cut short a family holiday for work reasons, I personally would expect my employer to pay some of that cost. Whether the level was right I think is something you can reasonably discuss.
But I think if you pick through the spreadsheets (which are exceptionally free of black marker pen I note) rather than just read the headlines in the Murdoch press, I think it’s very hard to see the specific expenses as illegitimate or the overall level as extravagant compared with other large businesses (even excepting the BBC is in a somewhat different position as its shareholders aren’t really voluntary).
The latest YouGov poll -11/12 June was C40, Lab24, LD 18, Others 19. Responses are weighted by Newspaper readership.
The 304 who say they read the Sun or The Star were adjusted to 418. The 190 who read the Mirror or Daily record to 304.
The UK circulation of the Sun and Star combined is 3.552m copies, The Mirror and Star 1.544m. The Sun star sells 130% more than the Mirror/Record but the responses are weighted so that the Sun readers represent only 38% more than Mirror/readers (actually questioned it was 60% more).
Why?
324 and that is the point - we have no choice.
Local councils would never in my experience allow this sort of extravagance because their residents would be up in arms.
318 - “free money fosters an entitlement culture”
I have worked in both the private and public sectors in my time. Care to guess where I got more champagne? And rightly so - public money IS different, it ISN’T provided voluntarily and that DOES have implications.
I am an admirer of much that goes on in the private sector, and think there are lessons the public sector could learn. But your view of the respective cultures in each just doesn’t accord at all with my experience and strikes me as a grossly caricatured, Daily Mail dream world.
303. Mike, I have now bolded both Tories and Nat Libs, in line with other coalitions at previous elections.
316 ty Tim.
324 - Might be free from black pen, but MP’s totals weren’t redacted either, it was the receipts that got the marker pen treatment. The BBC expenses are redacted in other ways! No info on what the “talent” gets paid, and the descriptions of what some claims were for are woefully inadequate in many cases.
326 - Whats the claim against Thompson anyway?
As far as I can see his employers told him to get home ASAP, paid for a plane and his family travelled in it.
I doubt the plane would have been cheaper if his kids or whoever had stayed in Italy.
330 - Also, I am not seriously trying to compare the wastage with what we have seen with MP’s expenses. I said there seems to be a culture of OTT and wastage. However, on the Thompson flights example, I think there is a possibility that is it similar to some MP’s who found a claim shall we say.
331 Why are you being so supportive of the BBC? I don’t recall such ‘reasonableness’ about any Tory MP claim.
Happy to be corrected as ever.
Sentiment I’m hearing from anti-government sources within Iran is that they feel betrayed by Mousavi, “tricked” into exposing themselves to danger, and generally disillusioned as they come to terms with defeat.
333 - i’m just questioning the logic behind this attack on one claim.
Don Foster MP was just on the radio admitting that he had been criticising Thompson for not flying home quicker.
As for the Tory MPs, I think I was the first one on here to defend Djangolys claim for security gates when he came under attack from the Telegraph.
334. Well they should have known better given his history?
“betrayed by Mousavi”
That’s the feeling I’m getting also on the Net : Moussavi does not call anymore for an new election… He’s basically silent now when he’s not calling for some sort of appeasement.
His website asked for the identity of protesters, and his wife also asked for personnal information… Highly suspicious in the actual context.
But the people on the street does not seem to care about green Moussavi; they call for the death of Mr. K. and for fair and free elections.
336- It was always an odd and unreliable coalition. Mousavi used the protestors while they, in a way, used him. To a large extent, their goals were never quite the same as most of the protestors were seeking real change, not merely switching this president for that one in the same detested system.
DH - great article.
On topic comment:
The trouble for Brown is that he’s trying to fight the same old battle in the same old style, but under different circumstances.
It’s rather like how Napoleon fought at the Battle of Waterloo, sending his Old Imperial Guard up the slopes of Mont St. Jean to meet death by the massed musket volleys of the ranks of Maitlands British Foot Guards.
Camerons British Foot Guards can see Browns Imperial Guard coming - they know exactly when, where and how he’s going to attack - and are lying, waiting, for him; knowing exactly what to do.
This strategy may have worked for Labour since 1997 - but it won’t this time. The swing voters recognise the need to get public spending under control. Labour would have to keep their losses of seats to under 20 marginals. A simple loss of 20 seats on the 2005 result would be enough for a hung parliament. The voters you refer to, David, who could deliver that 4th victory are the core Labour voters who would need to almost ALL turn out on election day to prevent a Labour defeat.
There is no sign of them doing so.
It is worth bearing in mind Labour are only defending a modest majority under boundary changes. Brown has tried “Tory Cuts”, “Toffs”, “Do Nothing” and “Party of the few not the many”.. none of it has worked.
What other strategy is left open to him?
328. Incredible to see on that article that as recently as 1951 there were unopposed candidates. Although it’s academic now (at least in parliamentary elections) there should really be an affirmative ballot in circumstances where there is only one candidate, and a write-in option wouldn’t be a bad idea either.
Moussavi
I just don’t understand why he does not call for a strike of the oil workers…
I’m beginning to think he’s just a puppet, not a leader.
OT
We the undersigned petition the Prime Minister to abolish regional assemblies and create a parliament for the people of England instead; in line with Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish devolution
http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/No-to-assemblies/
340 - A better option would be to have a Re-Open Nominations (RON) option. If RON won, none of the present candidates could stand again. It would be an ideal safety valve in a first past the post system to ensure that old lags wouldn’t get tempted to trough.
341, I wonder when the last time he was seen was.
There is one interesting person on that “repayment” list, who hasn’t repaid yet, Andrew MacKay. Apparently, he is going to wait for the completion of an independent review before repaying, hmmm….
I’ve been moderated for repeating content from No 10 petition site!
Clearly things are bad…
“The swing voters recognise the need to get public spending under control.” Up to a point Lord Copper.
They still want the trains to run on time, the hospitals to be clean and with beds available, good local schools for their children, old people to be looked after etc. etc.
Presumably Mr Cameron will tell us he is slashing MPs expenses, stopping ID cards and cutting defence spending in half (well what else). Otherwise he is going to have some very unhappy voters.
Plato - links from No10 never seem to get through!
342 - I think RON in any election is a good idea. The chance to go and place to proper protest vote is a good thing, and you never know once in a blue moon RON wins enough support to change things.
Glad my expenses haven’t been published - did I really need to stay in the Taj Palace? Was a driver on permanent standby all day really necessary?.
Nothing on these looks like expense claims of personal benefit to the claimant. Unlike for example a 50″ Bang & Olusen flat screen TV with 5 speaker surround sound, or Sky Sports or having the tax payer cover most of the costs arising from your house in Fife. No claims for electrical work carried out by a now sadly deceased friend of a friend who provided fake reciepts or shelves in a pub basement. No thousands on plants and gardening. No overclaims for Council Tax.
Just the normal business expenses of senior executives.
339. Casino Royale
“they know exactly when, where and how he’s going to attack”
Its like watching a car crash on ground hog day!
Oracle: note the imposter claiming to be you at 293: “He claims a large amount for his mortgage interest, nothing wrong with that, he claimed exactly what the rules stated was appropriate and acceptable. If you say that was wrong, it is like arguing a GP is wrong for getting paid way over the odds for the job they do.”
- obviously not the same Oracle who regularly argues that it’s wrong for me and others to use the allowance for rent to the extent that the rules say is appropriate and acceptable. You should sue!
339
Casino Royale said “What other strategy is left open to him?”
How about:
1. telling the truth
and
2. then saying Labour cuts would be less painful.?
349 - but they aren’t ‘normal business executives’, they are people paid by us to make TV programmes.
If they want to claim for jollies then let them join Endemol, Hat-Trick and the rest.
If they worked for charities, no one would accept this level of extravagance. Why is our money any different except we had no choice about donating to it?
339 - It looks as if we are seeing the sun set on the ‘old’ Labour dogma of ‘hard working families’, Tory toffs, redistributive tax and spend, and class warfare. Brown is almost the Last Believer, except for some on the back benches. He has the classic socialist world view of oppressed workers versus Old Etonian Oxbridge types, that higher government spending is a Good Thing regardless.
I wonder what Labour will eventually morph into, to take the place of that discredited dogma - and how long will it take them, and what sort of relevance will they have at that point?
351 - Careful Nick, don’t want to go smearing and mis-representing people’s words again.
I have never said you are WRONG, as in against the rules (that was the discussion we were having about Cameron) for you to make your claims, in fact I said exactly that the other day. I said you don’t seem to have done anything WRONG, although shouldn’t be congratulated as you are a damn expensive MP and have a piss poor attitude.
Cameron’s mortgage interest is the same. From his claims, I don’t really see anything against the both the letter and spirit of the rules, hence nothing wrong in terms of reference of the discussion.
However, is Cameron expensive / is his mortgage interest / ACA high, yes, and if he was my MP, would I ask him to give a committment to cut that cost down, yes.
So Nick, how about you, for the 20th time,
we you give a commitment to cut your cost to the taxpayer should you be re-elected?
It is very simple, YES or NO!
re 242 and indeed much of what the Americans spent on healthcare is wasted. From a recent BMJ editorial by two of my colleagues
Expenditure in 2005 was $6350 per US citizen (45% publicly financed) compared with $2597 per UK citizen (87% from public funds). This disparity is not matched by a disparity in health. In 2009, UK citizens are predicted to live on average one year longer than US citizens, and the health of white, middle aged Americans was worse than that of the English in every socioeconomic class.
tim might talk rubbish on many subjects, but in health matters he knows his onions.
Bit difficult for Mousavi to do much when it appears as though he is under house arrest with his websites being relentlessly attacked (and maybe compromised) and is given no public forum.
The Iranian people know that he is not deserting them, if they are unable to communicate they know this to be the case for Mousavi also, and suggestions that he is doing so are either mischievous or deliberately destructive. They know that things are in their own hands, however, and, if anyone, it is Rafsanjani who now needs to show his hand. Mousavi has played his part, even Larijani has created the cracks. The cries of Allalu Akhbar are louder and longer and signal that people are far from despairing.
Like 1979 this is likely to be a drawn out affair, but Pandora’s box has been opened now and Khameini is on borrowed time.
The crass mistake, however, is to think this is about ‘freeing’ a people, and that anyone outside of Iran has any sway in anything because of this, it is about ‘justice’ for Iranians and that is the focus.
355 - Also remind me Nick, what have you achieved in politics since you became an MP, where has all my tax MP gone keeping you in a job. Mr Useless / Shoe Eater as you are known, what have you managed to achieve other than being caught smearing and grassing up other MP’s?
Any body who asks “yes or no” like that isn’t really interetsed in debate, they are just interested in bullying.
356 - Maybe TimBot is really one of those “overworked” NHS manager types. Would make sense!
263. Precisely, that’s the key point. Thomson’s SECOND charter of a private jet was the result of no sudden BBC emergency, it was this:
“Thompson claimed a further £1,277 for the charter of a private plane in the US in August 2004 when he was called back to the UK from another holiday to deal with an internal investigation into creative director Alan Yentob’s expenses.”
SO he thought he’d spunk another grand of our cash to make a pointless journey in a luxury private jet so he could get back no quicker to deal with an argument about a BBC exec thoughtlessly spunking our cash.
Sack the f*cker. Sack them all. Then privatise the BBC. Enough.
oracle - how you have the nerve to accuse other people of smearing beats me - pot kettle, black etc
354. Yes - Brown is completly wrong. It looks to me as though Brown just does not understand that in terms of taxation a larger slice of a smaller cake is less desirable than a smaller size in larger cake!
This is why at the core i always vote Tory because i feel that lower taxation and public spending means a more dynamic economy and more efficiently provided services. Only nutters want 100% or 90% of the economy in private hands these days. I would say though that the band 30-40% of GDP is the best level for Government spending in an economy depending on the stage of the economic cycle. That is still huge if you think about it! But it provides welfare nets to the needy, pensions for the old and health care for the masses whilst leaving the Taxpayer feeling good!
359 - John, I have asked Nick coming up for 20 times, and he ignores it time and time and time again.
I asked him on several occasions, what are his reasons for not considering a cheaper rental, does he think he could save in other areas, if he doesn’t think he could save money why not (inflation is negative after all). I have asked nicely, but have never got a reply.
“”Mousavi is trying to avoid people being killed and to reduce the costs for people in the streets,” Mr. Makhmalbaf said. “He is asking for a dispersed demonstration in many different areas, rather than gathering in one place, where people will be attacked. Also he is moving toward calling for a strike rather than asking people to put themselves in danger in a street fight.”
Mr. Makhmalbaf, who lives in Paris, has directed or written 18 films - including “Kandahar,” an award-winning movie about a female Afghan refugee from the Taliban who returns home to keep her sister from committing suicide.
The filmmaker said Mr. Mousavi contacted him after the June election and asked him to get the word out about vote-rigging because Mr. Mousavi anticipated his ability to communicate with the outside world would be restricted.
Indeed, Mr. Makhmalbaf said the last time he was able to contact the Mousavi organization was on Monday.
“Right now, many on the Mousavi side have been arrested. Some are hidden inside different houses, and Mr. Mousavi has no communication with the outside world,” Mr. Makhmalbaf said. ”
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jun/25/opposition-alters-tactics-to-avoid-protest-deaths/?page=1
362 - Smear? When do I make false and unsubstantiated claims about anybody?
Nick has been caught smearing, he had to apologise. Nick was reported in the Times as grassing up another MP.
358. That’s not fair. He made it to the heady heights of PPS, briefly. And he was almost good enough that Brown didn’t need to bring in random extras to fill his government out via the Lords, but not quite. Good show for 12 years…
367 - Sounds a bit like “Genius” Gordo and his high flying academic career.
I will say this only once - BBC is stonkingly good value. Gobsmackingly good. R4 is worth it on its own. They are too smug and wet liberal - small price to pay.
There is no commercial station that comes remotely near - so I assume you would prefer a diet of inferior radio in particular
If the head of Sky goes by private jet do we complain?
The fact that it is compulsory does not alter the fact that even the lowest level of usage of the BBC is good value.
I just wish that just once on programmes like Feedback, the BBC executive answering would say “We got it wrong this time” They are bit like the Fonz in that respect
If Moussavi can ask on Facebook for the people to “send GREEN BALLOONS to the sky” — why — why???? — doesn’t he call for a strike of the oil workers?
That was effective in 1979…
Oracle - why should he answer to you - a self confessed bitter and twisted Tory. If I was his aide I’d say “don’t touch it with a barge pole” - there is only downside, no upside.
369 - The problem is that I am not forced to pay for Sky, so Rupert Murdoch employees can do what they like, because if the shareholders and customers don’t like what they are up to, they don’t have to invest in the Sky brand. I have no such choice over the BBC, I have to pay for it even if I then spend all my time watching Sky and never the BBC.
361 - You may have the wrong target Sean.
Given that Thompson was “called back” I presume his employers told him to pay for the plane.
Of course when the details emerge it may be deemed to be excessive, but it may be best to wait for the details before you turn into a Daily Mail parody.
370 - Philippe - as per 365 = “Also he is moving toward calling for a strike rather than asking people to put themselves in danger in a street fight.”
Mousavi today - “1.25pm:
Reuters has more quotes from Mousavi, who seems in no mood to capitulate.
“A major rigging has happened. I am prepared to prove that those behind the rigging are responsible for the bloodshed.”"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2009/jun/25/iran-crisis
Arlen Specter’s path to re-election to the Senate in 2010 is suddenly looking no more rosy as a Democrat than it was as a Republican:
“New Pennsylvania poll from Franklin and Marshall College has good news and bad news for Democrat Arlen Specter.
The good news: Specter leads potential challenger Joe Sestak by 20 points in the Democratic primary. However, Sestak is not nearly as well known statewide as Specter, and 48% of Democrats remain undecided.
Specter 33%
Sestak 13%
Other 6%
Undecided 48%
Now the bad news for Specter: since switching parties on April 28 his ratings have taken a serious hit.
In March of this year Specter had a 52% job approval rating, today it’s just 34%.
Specter’s favorable rating has plummeted a net of 30 points in the past three months, swinging from a +24 (48% fav/24% unfav) in March to a -6 (31% fav/37% unfav) today.
Most troubling of all for Specter: 12 weeks ago 40% of voters said he deserved to be reelected, now only 28% support his reelection while 57% say it’s “time for a change.”"
http://realclearpolitics.blogs.time.com/2009/06/25/pa-poll-specter-ahead-but-red-flags-abound/
371 - Errh, Tory? Me thinks not, not sure how many times I have to say it on PB.com, I have never voted Tory at a GE, ever!
Not sure where the self-confessed bit came from!
Just because I hate Brown and don’t like the current New Labour jellyfish, doesn’t mean I am some Tory Toff. I don’t mind Cameron, but then I don’t mind Frank Field, or Kate Hoey, or even Tony Benn. Squeaky? Maude? Hunky Dunky? Got no love for them that is for certain.
And Sullivan, as if by magic, expands on my point at 357 -
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/rafsanjanis-pushback.html
“According to a well-placed source in the holy city of Qom, Rafsanjani is working furiously behind the scenes to call for an emergency meeting of the Khobregan, or Assembly of Experts–the elite all-cleric body that can unseat the Supreme Leader or dilute his prerogatives. The juridical case against Khamenei would involve several counts. First, he would be charged with countenancing a coup d’état–albeit a bloodless one–without consulting with the Khobregan. Second, he would stand accused of deceitfully plotting to oust Rafsanjani–who is the Khobregan chairman and nominally the country’s third-most-important authority–from his positions of power.
Third, he would be said to have threatened the very stability of the republic with his ambition and recklessness. “
376 - Well after your idiocy regarding Carswell voting for Bercowthis week you ain’t no TV reviewer.
355: Oracle, the answer’s no - I’ve told you lots. I think it makes sense for MPs to rent a flat near Parliament, and that’s what it costs. But I noted your indulgent attitude to Cameron in the earlier post and contrasted it with, as you say, your umpteenth repetition of having a go at me. Neither of us are your MP.
378 - Shut up Smearbot, you know and I know, that I simple relayed what the Reeta Chakrabarti said, and within 5 minutes, posted a correction after checking Carswell own blog.
James Forsyth at the Coffee House Blog - Moussavis under house arrest?
“The New York Times is reporting that a Faris-language web site, gooya.com, is claiming that Moussavi, the supposedly defeated candidate in the presidential election, is under house-arrest. More as we get it.”
363 - as if you needed telling, the US Embassy is still in Grosvenor Square, still open for business, and still guarded by those nice helpful sensitive chaps with flak jackets and sub-machine guns.
I’m sure they have some nice newly printed forms all ready for you
According to Tehran Bureau’s sources in Iran, there are no strike :
Were there strikes in Tehran yesterday?
People are going to work. No one has asked the people to stay at home. No one has called for a strike. Mousavi has not asked people to do this. In fact, I was at Tehran’s Grand Bazaar yesterday. I spoke to many of the merchants. I told them I heard there was a strike today but you’ve all showed up to work. As one of them said, “Lady, I voted for Mousavi. If Mousavi asks us to go on strike, I will. But who will pay my bills?”
I also spoke to a restaurant worker yesterday. He said he also voted for Mousavi. He said if I don’t work for a week, I have nothing to live on the week after. I have no way to feed my wife and kids.
But strikes could happen. The mood is tense and the environment for strikes is actually there. There is a lot of talk about it. Everyone is discussing the possibility of strikes. But so far no one has gone on strike. The banks are open for business. All the stores in the Bazaar were open.
I’m looking over Modares Avenue. Traffic is as normal as ever.
http://tehranbureau.com/iran-updates/
379 - So Nick, now lets just get this right, you are going to make no attempts to reduce your overall cost to the taxpayer should you be re-elected. I didn’t just say your living arrangements, I said all costs. And specifically on your flat rental, the reason is that it is too inconvenient. Have I got that right?
Also, are you sure I am not a constituent or will be a constituent when the election comes?
Have I misunderstood or is it actually not possible for the forthcoming by-elections to take place in September?
As both MPs resigned, the writ can only be moved while the House is sitting. In which case, even moving the writ on the day Parliament rises for the summer recess will result in an election in August.
If this is right then I don’t see the by-elections being any time before November.
The bizarre connection with the Lord of the Rings chat on here gets stronger -
Hobbit = Kootoole = Ahmadinejad.
“ho picked this film? … There are the overt Mousavi themes: the unwanted quest and the risking of life in pursuit of an unanticipated destiny. Then there is the sly nod to Ahmadinejad. Iranian films are dubbed (forget the wretched dubbing into English in the U.S.; in Iran dubbing is a craft) and there are plenty of references to “kootoole,” little person, the Farsi word used in the movie for hobbit and dwarf. “Kootoole,” of course, was, is, the term used in many of the chants out on the street against President Ahmadinejad. He is the “little person.” (”And whose side are you on?” Pippin asks the ancient, forest-dwelling giant named Treebeard. Those watching might think the answer is Mousavi, since Treebeard is decked out in green.)”
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/the-lord-of-the-rings-gambit.html
384 - Just in contrast to Nick, I believe Cameron he has committed to reducing his ACA claim if he wins the election. Is that right?
BTW, have we ever really found out what Gordo spends £18k a year on ACA, while living in No. 10?
Sure, Rafsanjani and even Larijani may be working behind the scene, but Moussavi appears weak and uncombative.
I have tell you all this.
A woman walks past my house whilst doing a fitness routine and she wears these amazing likera shorts every evening! As I look out of the window and admire the curve of her backside i move to the best angle to watch! Its great!
She walks past twice as well seperated by about 30 mins!
Plato
If your link fails, go to Tiny url website and use that, it never fails.
Completely off topic. Sad news Farrah Fawcett Majors has died.
http://www.latimes.com/news/obituaries/la-me-farrah-fawcett26-2030oct20,0,7932288.story
“uncombative”
What is not needed is a man who calls for violence and martyrdom; his words today are ‘combative’ and, if now he is arrested, could easily be seen as the provocation fot that.
People need to read into the Iranian culture, not as westerners looking in.
389
Why Martin, do tell us why?
391. Sad that! She was a good actress!
I used to like ‘Jody’ in the Fall Guy though!
393. Just to say i have a room with a view!
394. Not the same actress!
390 MTF thanks - will bookmark it.
On topic:
If Gordon were right, and his strategy of suggesting that Labour will protect public spending while DC will cut did win him the next election, Labour would be annihilated at the election after that.
Because whichever party wins the next election will have to make incredibly painful decisions to get the deficit under control, and that includes Labour.
When, having been elected on a promise of “investment” and by running aginst “tory cuts” Brown then made exactly the sort of cuts he had accused David Cameron of planning, Labour would be even more unpopular, especially with their own natural supporters, than they are now.
I don’t think it is likely that Labour can get back in present circumstances, but if they did the consequences of the lies they are telling now would finish them as a party of government for a generation.
New Thread!
I’ve noticed there’s a direct correlation between support for the BBC and support for the left/Labour on this site. Just an impartial observation!
YouGOV Prediction:
I think it will be:
Con 42
Lab 21
LIB 23
I read this post and began to wonder what on earth the author had been smoking or snorting. Whenever this longed for election arrives, a dead rat will beat Labour with or without Jimmy Brown.
402.
And the longer this government leaves it the more angrier people are getting at having to wait to vote. Consequently the punishment for Labour will be a severe anihilation!!