Is voter certainty UKIP’s secret weapon?
May 28th, 2009
What chances of Farage’s party over-hauling Labour?
There’s a buzz around the UKIP campaign HQ at the moment following a private ComRes poll which seems to suggest that they could do very well - perhaps, even, over-taking Labour for second place.
I haven’t seen any figures but my understanding is that amongst those who are certain or near-certain to vote then UKIP’s share was in the 18 - 19% region.
This was still some way behind the Labour share but no past vote weighting was applied - a factor, I would argue, that would magnify the Labour position. So my assumption is that any gap could be surmountable.
There can be little doubt that a Labour third behind Farage’s anti-EU party would make Gordon Brown’s post election position even more precarious.
From a previous ComRes poll EU poll where the fieldwork finished May 17th the detailed data shows the certainty effect. Amongst those rating themselves as 10/10 on likelihood to vote it was CON 63%: LAB 53%: LD 56%: UKIP 70%: GRN 55%: BNP 70%. These are, of course, the proportions of those saying they will vote for the respective parties.
Given that this looks like being a low-turnout election then the differences here could be critical.
There’s now a SportingIndex spread market on the range of parties while William Hill has some a good range of markets.
Mike Smithson
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Hmm… this is exactly the ‘Guido’ scenario, prompting Brown to go - unless the UKIP gain is almost exclusively at the expense of the Conservatives, who also underperform badly?
I do think UKIP will do extremely well, but 19% seems outrageously high to me, even with all the background kerfuffle.
Oh - and first first first!
EDIT: If UKIP’s expenses get big airplay tonight on Question Time they could suffer a bit.
Second
With the news being dominated by the expenses issue, the certainty to vote gap will widen.
I think the answer is yes.
Surely somebody has go to do an expose before election day, on how bad UKIP’s expenses have been. Surely, if that gets into the public consciousness, then they will take a hit
I’m certainly a lot more nervous about my “Labour to beat UKIP” bet than I was when we all put them on a couple of weeks ago!
I have the sneaking suspicison that we will have a few suprises come results time. I beleive that the polling company’s are struggling/going to find it difficult over certainity to vote, and people deciding to go for the fringe parties.
I reckon when it comes to the big three, like in a general election,. they have it accurate and close. But throw another three signifigent parties (UKIP/BNP and the greens) into the mix, and their methodology is not as sound.
Looking at your picture and having seen my local UKIPers, I wonder if they’re the party with highest average age for activists/members.
Sorry to go immediately off-topic, but shadsy has pulled in his odds on Labour winning Luton South from 5/2 to 2-1 (I took some of the 5-2). I see that Esther Rantzen has said that she might still stand, which may be a complicating consideration in this seat.
488 - because, GIN, they WON’T. Although a majority of voters (ie those who support PR by voting Labour or Liberal Democrat) in your scenario will vote for PR, the majority of MPs (Conservatives) will NOT support PR, even though being aginst PR is a minority opinion.
6 - Yes because they are the Halcyon Days party.
3. HB. It’s too late for that. Most people dont watch the media that closely - the impression of Lab/Con/Lib Dem sleaze is embedded in the consciousness. The reality that UKIP are a bunch of incompetent featherbedding home for crooks and malcontents has passed everyone by.
1:Wibber: In a zero-sum gain, as long as UKIP take votes from Consveratives, they will boost their vote share.
I’ve been wondering what will happen if Brown is deposed: http://tinyurl.com/q948gl
UKIP could do for Gordon rather than Dave - that would be ironic.
Except UKIP doing Gordon in might not be good for Dave, in which case, it isn’t.
1 - not that many watch Question Time - if it fed into the daily press then maybe a chance of harming them.
6 - I suspect that the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party would have the highest average age for activists.
5 On that point, I would have thought that I would have been surveyed by YouGov by now….but it’s been almost a year since I was last asked a Voting Intention question by them. I would have thought that they (and the others) would have been increasing the number of surveys, even at their own cost, if only to check on their methodologies.
3 - UKIP with their scams and scandals and the BNP over their true nature are stories which need to be spread via the (currently silent) media. I would add the Greens but the only thing I can find against them is their nannyish attitude to personal freedoms, maybe others know more.
6: In some ways thats a strength. Certainty to vote rises with age.
On topic, note the very high BNP certainty to vote also in the earlier ComRes poll. Compare and contrast the Green figure.
However, I’m wary about drawing very much in the way of conclusions from a private poll, the details of which have not been released but which (surprise, surprise) gives good news to the party for whom it was prepared.
@10: Not completely, I don’t think. My neighbours basically call UKIP the crypto-fascist wing of the BNP.
10 - Ken, then that is a shame.
Labour still don’t get how massive a smack-down they are going to get next Thursday. They have trashed the economy. They have lied about honouring their manifesto commitment on Europe. They have continued to shield the worst of the troughers. And when most want to be given a voice on how they think our MP’s have behaved, Labour clings to power like a super-glued limpet.
Humiliation beckons.
What happens if Labour scrapes second but the Liberals come in 5th behind UKIP and the Greens. Would the pressure then move from Brown to Clegg?
@18: I think that’s because the Greens have a lot of Labour-wavering support. Exactly what happens on the day will have a lot of impact on Labour. Stay home, and Labour lose a bit. Go out and vote, and Labour lose a lot.
7 “I see that Esther Rantzen has said that she might still stand”
You can’t believe a word these wannabe MP’s say…
22
Having just read an article of his in the Guardian, I certainly hope so.
Clegg - Abolish the Lords!!
22: UKIP will certainlly get more votes than the Lib Dems.
I think the problem is that we are moving more and more in the direction of exclusivity in politics. Parties are set up for narrower and narrower rationales and prospectuses. Politics isn’t suscseptible to the menatlity of the supermarket.
Are any of my fellow conservatives tempted to vote Labour, i’m seriously contemplating it. Just to keep Brown in.
24 Pathetic. She thinks she is Joanna Lumley.
She isn’t.
28. Vote Labour to save my Labour>UKIP bet.
22 - Good question. Another good question is what happens if Labour finish third (or worse) and the Lib Dems finish fifth (or worse)? Do both Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg come under pressure or would Nick Clegg benefit from all the attention being focussed on Gordon Brown?
28 - No..and don’t!
25. It should be abolish Clegg!
30 - Yeah, I have that bet too.
19 - Blimey, do normal people use ‘crypto-fascist’ in garden gate conversation?
It’s an expression I will always associate with Lister from Red Dwarf
28 No.
I think all the major parties will have their disappointments.
34. HB. I was expecting Dave to do a good job of holding up the Conservative vote. He’s generally delivered. What I hadnt thought was that Brown would be such a totally useless numpty at cleaning house. I bet activists are furious.
36: Cue the ‘It’s a bad night for the Convseratives’ line from Labour and the BBC.
The Euros will naturally capture the headlines being an actual ‘national’ vote. But shouldn’t the three main parties regard the projected national share from the local elections as more accurately reflecting their true standings?
37 - Ken, spot on analysis, I think Gordon Brown has a good eye for spotting a banana skin, and making sure he goes out of his way, to slip on it.
How 300 plus thought he was PM material, I’ll never know, what were they smoking?
38 - If the Conservative spokesman on the results programme has any sense, he too will say that it’s been a bad night and say that the party will be listening closely to the message that the voters have given. Hubris or aggrandisement is not going to be the note to strike this time around for any major party.
Comment on previous thread.
Mike, that is quite some leader in the Times today.
“It will be then that things could be most dangerous for Brown. Although he is hugely resilient and cunning his position is much weaker than he was last July when David Miliband made his abortive moves. For a start he doesn’t have the resourceful Damien McBride at his side and those at the top within the party know that this could be their last opportunity.”
Just gone back and looked at the PB.com archives from September last year.
Could it be an all female assassination squad? You wrote this back then…
“Blears, of course, is the one who is closest to Tony Blair and she’s continued her reputation for being forthright. And as Jean Merrick on the Indy blog notes a number of the early rebels had links to Blears.
She is now suggesting that what the government (I assume she means Brown) lacks is “emotional intelligence” - which to my mind hits the nail on the head.
A coordinated resignation by Blears, Smith and Kelly could have much more potency than similar action by a group of male cabinet members none on whom, apart from Hutton, have shown any inclination to stick their necks out”
Very interesting indeed, especially in light of Guido’s post today which indicates that Johnson and Miliband Ready Campaign Teams
“Watch out for a recent former cabinet member making the Geoffrey Howe speech. Not Clarke or Byers, it will have to be someone without previous, who has served in Brown’s cabinet, someone like Peter Hain or Ruth Kelly.”
When Blear’s did her infamous ‘youtube if you want to’ article, her ally Ruth Kelly also had an article go to print the same weekend. And we all remember the manner of her departure, and the intervention of Damian McBride back then.
EDIT -Just look at the intervention of Flint&Co when it looked like Brown was going to despatch Blears and Smith in recent weeks. That girl power is looking stronger now than it did back then.
Last chance saloon for the Labour party, and the Cabinet right now.
Would Gordon walk away from certain election defeat?
31 - Even if the Euros go badly for him, Clegg is likely to be able to point to much better results in the County Council elections on the same day so I doubt it will raise issues. His party are also well used to poor Euro election results followed by decent General Election results to be honest.
38 - To be fair to Al Beeb (something I thought I’d never say) but the Tories have given them an opportunity, as William Hague and David Cameron have bought said they were targeting +40% in the Euros
40. The economy. Gordon lucked out. He also has amazing political skulduggery skills with the garotte and the poniard. Sadly he lacks ability, intelligence, honesty, leadership or charisma.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/8072031.stm
The ever excellent Michael Blastland on “How does your pay compare with an MPs’?
Never has a Euro election been so fascinating, so - potentially - full of consequence or so hard to call. I’m another of those with money on Labour holding off UKIP, because I just can’t see Labour going below about 19%. (Or UKIP higher than a couple of points less.) That this is *higher* than some projections for Labour’s share underlines just what desperate territory the party is in.
Whatever happens though, Brown stays. He won’t walk and his party simply hasn’t the gumption to shift him.
8. “even though being aginst PR is a minority opinion.”
Evidence?
Canada has had three recent referenda on PR - on a provincial basis - where it has been comprehensively rejected by the electorate:
Prince Edward Island: November 28, 2005: 64% to 36% against PR
Ontario: October 10, 2007: 63% to 37% against PR
British Colombia did have 57.6% of voters supporting STV in 2005, but it failed the 60% threshold so it wasn’t passed.
Another referendum was held in BC on this less than a fortnight ago and failed by a massive margin with only 38.82% of voters in favour. Some say the difference was down to voters being aware of how their constituency boundaries would be affected in the second referenda - and they didn’t like it.
So, it is hardly the case that being against PR is a “minority” opinion and whenever Canada (which has a far greater problem with FPTP than we do) has held a referendum on the matter, it has failed due to insufficient popular support.
I’d expect a similar result if a referendum was held on PR in the UK.
42: I think if we get past this summer. The party would ‘make’ Brown lead into the election. It would be a disaster if they knifed him and still lost, losing another ‘leader’ caretaker or not.
43 - agreed. Party members know that the people who tend to vote in Euro elections are those most excised by Europe as an issue, which tends to be those who are against the EU. Plus, PR elections are bad for the Lib Dems, which is why we support them against narrow party interest
40 - Maybe they all went round to Jacqui Spliff’s house for a party the night before, not sure all of them would fit in her “main residence”, must have been held in her 2nd home
44: Without expensegate they probably would. Now….I’m really not sure.
@35: I think that is exactly the spirit in which it is used
Obama has picked his ambassadorial nomination to Britain
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/27/obama-names-top-diplomats_n_208436.html
It’s an investment banker who has raised hundreds of millions for the Democrats.
54: Cash for ambassadorships?
‘Your excellency, with these bungs you really are spoiling us..’
48 - that remark is in the context of GIN’s previous statement about PR being in the manifesto of both the Lib Dems and Labour at the forthcoming election, not any comment about the likely outcome of any referendum. This would/could lead to a situation where the majority of votes cast would be for parties that support (a referendum at the very least) on PR, but because of the FPTP system a party who didn’t support (a referendum on) PR would hold the majority of seats.
56: You’ve seen the parties next manifesto?
If the British vote for UKIP (some old-fashioned brand of ketchup) they are not just off the Continent but on another planet.
Please, please no Ester Rantzen! A 1970s nightmare. She might stand though as she puts a rhinoceros to shame.
56 - The Lib Dems and Labour don’t have a very good record of carrying out manifesto commitments to hold referenda. Why should we believe them next time out?
57 - “488GIN says:
28/5/2009 at 1:57 pm
Tabman. The public WILL get the opportunity to implement PR if they want it. It seems highly likely that Labour will have a commitment to implement PR in their next manifesto. The Lib-Dems obviously will. The Tories won’t. So, if the public wants PR, they know what to do.
So whats the problem exactly?”
No I haven’t seen the mainfestos. My response was against this comment.
The “David Cameron doesn’t know how many houses he has” line is getting traction on quite a lot of blogs.
I wonder if it will become a major Labour/LD talking point in the next few days?
It was a silly thing to say, quite surprising for someone of Cameron’s PR talents. But ultimately, unlike McCain, his explanation (he has 2 homes, his wife used to own a timeshare, and bizarrely owns some land in Scunthorpe) more or less stacks up. And Gordon Brown may own as many houses as Cameron.
60; Wether or not it’s in Labours manifesto is questionable. Despite soundings from the postie, its still every much in the ‘lets run this up the flagpole’ state.
61 - Looks like a desperate attempt to divert attention.
Samantha Cameron’s father used to own more than a field in Scunthorpe - I expect it’s a potential building plot waiting for planning given to her by Sir Reginald - very sensible
61 - “his wife used to own a timeshare, and bizarrely owns some land in Scunthorpe”
Yet another example of Cameron trying to hide his background. Presuming she inherits, it’ll be a little bit more than “some land”:
“[Samantha] grew up on the 300-acre (1.2 km2) estate of Normanby Hall, five miles (8 km) north of Scunthorpe in North Lincolnshire. Her family also owns a large Yorkshire estate called Sutton Park. ”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samantha_Cameron
60 Want PR? Vote Labour, and get ID cards as a bonus. That’s a winner!
56. Tabman - you miss the point.
You said being against PR is a “minority opinion”. You have no evidence for this.
Presumably you are basing this sweeping assertion on the fact that every vote for the Lib Dems is a mandate to introduce PR.
It isn’t.
65, yet another? He referred to it during one of his conference speeches. “The privilege of my upbringing wasn’t the wealth, it was the warmth”, or similar.
Could you explain how the number of houses or land owned by someone affects their competence to be Prime Minister?
61 Wibbler. If you read the original article in The Times then it puts the comments into context. The Johan Hari article and the subsequent reports in the blogosphere are mischievous misrepresentations. If this is what Cameron’s opponents are seeing as a major set back for Cameron then big deal.
61.Is that up there with Clegg trying to remember how many women he had slept with, or what the present pension is?
J.P. Brown @58
If the British vote for UKIP (some old-fashioned brand of ketchup) they are not just off the Continent but on another planet.
Can anyone argue against such rapier like logic and well constructed debate.
How many homes does Gordon Brown and his wife own?
21 - “humiliation beckons”
Yep, got the beer and popcorn in and can’t wait
61 It would be nice to see an MP’s houses league table. Who is the Manchester United and who is the WBA?
I’ll get us started. Some of the people at the top of the table must be:
Meacher (Lab) ….. 9
Robinson (Lab) …. 5
Moran (Lab) …….. 4
57. “If the British vote for UKIP (some old-fashioned brand of ketchup) they are not just off the Continent but on another planet.”
Why? Polling has shown for a long time that the UK population is generally EU-sceptic for various reasons (e.g. CFP, CAP, etc.). So why not vote for a party that tends to represent these views? The rather high levels of coruption as seen amoungst UKIP MEPs are hardly uncommon amoungst anything related to the EU, but at least UKIP seem to want to get off the gravy train.
65; Given that most of Mrs Camerons wealth is inheirited I would imagine the affairs of who owns what are complicated in the extreme. I deal regularly with Farmers, which although not massively rich have plots of land, and shares/interests in farm holdings all over the place.
Given this its easy to say its difficult to know exactly how many properties are owned. It may not be outright, it may be in trusts, or partowned, or in probate etc, etc.
48. Personally i would like to see a directly elected PM who choses the executive from non-parliamentry talent.
The Commons and the Lords would then hold the government to account. Commons chopped to 300 members and Lords 100. Full time MPs and Peers! Which given the fact that the commons no longer forms the government could be elected by PR.
Cameron would win a directly elected PM election against anyone IMO and if he brought in the change in, it would be at the election after next anyway. I would though limit it to 8 years in No.10 (Two fixed terms of 4 years). So effectively Cameron would run one term as PM in the current system and then another in the new system. I think it would work and would stop someone like the useless one eyed idiot who has screwed the economy and the political system up so much!
65 Sutton Park recentley suffered a burglary.
The local press in York printed the details and asked Cameron to comment which he declined to do.
70 ChristinaD
Yes, it’s that sort of mistake. Fairly minor unless it ends up defining him. But everyone knows Cameron is rich so I doubt it changes anything.
Unlike Obama, who only had 1 home, and so had the standing to mock McCain, Gordon Brown and his wife have a few, and may even have ‘flipped’ and avoided CGT in some sense. And let’s not even talk about Tony and Cherie…
.
.
65 - A quick google of the “how many homes“ question, quickly reveals LabourList, LiberalDemocratVoice and the ever impartial Johann Hari as the only sauce of this nonsense.
Desperate stuff indeed.
78: Your point being?
65.61
Grow up and start looking at your own bunch of Cabinet thieving b4stards !!!! You people ain’t real !! why don’t you go and post on the Labour home site with the rest of the socialist hypocrites !!
70 - it could be worse; he could have attempted to remember how many pensioners he had slept with
65 Tabman - and what has this got to do with anything?
Class envy? At least the residents of Scunthorpe won’t have that clean living and honest as the day is long Elliot Morley as their MP.
67 - CR, no I don’t. The point is, that as we are often told by supporters of FPTP, Parties are elected under that system with a clear mandate for their election manifesto commitments.
I was making the constitutional point that we could have a situation where the parties with the most votes had manifesto commitments to PR, yet the party with the most seats didn’t.
74 I see:
Huhne (LibDem) …. 7
goes right into second place.
How appropriate. The LibDems in second place, as usual.
Martin Day @77
I think you mean to spell the phrase “Prime Minister” as “President” don’t you.
74 Woodward, Darling and Prescott must have 4 or 5 apiece. Would staff cottages on Quentin Davies Leicestershire estate count as one or multiples?
79 Maybe parts of the media are trying the suggest the ” I am considerably richer than thou” line Harry Enfield style.
74 I think Huhne is somewhere towards the top of the Houseowners League - definitely going to qualify for a place in Europe, anyway.
85: You can only ever say that in their policies as a whole. Not pick single policies and play make-beleive proportions with it.
77 - I would agree with some of that Martin, personally I’m not sure whether you would want such a constraining limit on the terms of a directly elected PM. I think you need to prevent excessively long periods in power for one person but is 8 years long enough we could have two terms but of 5 years each rather than four. Or have four year terms but three of them. I would want a slightly larger Commons maybe 400 or preferably 401. Upper House, yeah 100 sounds roughly ok. However we need to think about other things like how do we reinvigorate local government because unless you do that then cutting from the top will not be effective.
84 - the point, Plato, is that David Cameron says “some land near Scunthorpe”. Its a bit like saying he went to school at a little place near Windsor. It’s not a lie, but it doesn’t really give the whole picture.
Why is he too embaressed to say it like it is?
Perhaps there should be a sweep on who will become the new whipping post(s) now that mesdames Kirkbride and Moran have bitten the dust. Much will depend, I guess, on whether the Telegraph has more juicy items left in its locker room. We wait with baited breath.
I have to say that it’s unclear to me why the heat seems to have abated on the likes of Hoon, Darling and Woodward whose greed seems extraordinary. It’s as if their cabinet status have created a kind of force-field around them.
Tabman @85
we could have a situation where the parties with the most votes had manifesto commitments to PR, yet the party with the most seats didn’t.
Well last time round we had all three parties with commitments to EU referendums, but it still didn’t happen.
87 - You can have a directly elected PM, as they did in Israel for a number of years. PMs are usually indirectly elected but this is not by definition the case.
90 - Huhne has never made any secret of his wealth.
Shaun Woodward has at least seven properties doesn’t he?
James @96
Yes but it didn’t work in Israel so they changed back.
93: Why should Cameron give a list by list account of his assets to you? So what?
The only places we should care about are the ones he’s taking our cash for….
This is just pure gutter class envy/tosh bashing. How many houses does Brown have…please list them, as clearly he has nothing to hide…
Go on…give me a number.
95 - Serf, I agree with you; there should have been an EU referendum. Two wrongs don’t make a right etc etc
93 - Even better, he could have said he went to a school near Slough.
97: Neither has Cameron…..pathetic.
Just spotted this tucked away on Daily Mail website
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1189154/Speaker-Michael-Martin-encouraged-senior-political-sources-cover-MPs-expenses.html
“Michael Martin was allegedly leant on by ‘very senior political sources’ to try and cover up MPs’ expenses.
Veteran Labour MP Sir Stuart Bell said the Commons Speaker was put under ’severe pressure’ to launch a doomed High Court bid to keep MPs’ claims a secret.”
“The claim is likely to spark even more scrutiny of Gordon Brown, a friend of Mr Martin who helped him clinch the powerful post of Speaker eight years ago.
Leader of the Commons Harriet Harman insisted he was not ‘leant on’ and said it was important to have an ‘authoritative ruling’ on the issue. ”
If this is true…………………
100 - I’ve no idea. Has anyone asked him the direct question? I hope so, it would be interesting to see.
87. No in Isreal before they scrapped it a few years ago IIRC they elected directly the PM and the legislature is elected seperatly i.e. not forming the government.
Even if Cameron implemented the reforms his said to be considering it would still be a presidential system i.e Status Quo, the commons which is basically a PMs rubber stamp!
Only Labour wants ID cards, so any government truly elected according to PR could not go ahead with them.
But, Labour isn’t going to introduce PR any more than it’s going to dump Brown.
Labour doesn’t want to keep the Tories out by being in coalition with the LibDems forever; Labour wants to be in power forever, and have full power over us, full stop.
93, the burning issue of the day isn’t whether or not Cameron owns 5 roods or 100 virgates. As for being embarrassed, I think you’re clutching at straws.
95, different issue. You can rely on the Lib Dems to vote for something that fiddles the electoral system to their advantage.
103 - the difference bwing, when asked a straight question about how many houses he owned he gave a straight answer, rather than obfuscating.
105: The point being it doesn’t matter…..unless you’re just on a class warrior line of attack. Which you clearly are.
.
.
105 - Tabman old bean, the country is going to hell in a handcart, half the Cabinet are crooks, we have an economic black hole the size of Pluto…..and you are obsessing about a field in Scunthorpe, owned by Cameron…!
Are you a Liberal Democrat by any chance?
109: And as I’ve said there are many,many reasons why the ‘exact’ number may not be clear. Part-ownership, property in trusts, property in probate, timeshares etc etc.
99 - I’m not advocating it. Just noting that you wouldn’t need to change the name of the role as your earlier post suggested.
109. How many does Clegg own? His father in law is very wealthy and a member of parliament for a rightwing Spanish political party IIRC!
What about Gordon Brown and the dodgy Westminster flat where he milked the taxpayer and then just as he becomes PM transfers it to his wifes name! She then takes a mortgage out on it and takes equity out of it!
Personally i don’t care if Cameron or Clegg own a million houses between them. What rattles my cage is the fact Brown cashed in at taxpayer expense on a flat!
Hmmm… I note the Labourlist article about Cameron’s houses is by Will Straw - the son of Jack Straw, the council tax fiddler.
I wonder how many houses Jack Straw and his family have?
99. I don’t think it was changed because it did not work merely the fact it suited those in power to repeal it!
New contender for speaker:
“When you are the Speaker of the House of Commons you are not leant on by anybody.”
Commons Speaker Harriet Harman
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8071731.stm
The headline on the front page of the London Evening Standard:
“MP’s Expenses:Police Grilling in The Commons”
Picture of 4 cabinet ministers + 2 other Labour and goes on to mention police will be questioning the fees office about 10 MP’s - well at least 6 are Labour ! Looks Very Serious !!
Does anyone know which MP has the most acres of land in Britain?
I don’t know the answer but would hazard a guess that it might be a certain debonair Lib Dem…
115 - Would that be Will Straw the drug dealer?
118 - about time.
darling, smith, hoon, millipede.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23700777-details/MPs+expenses%3A+Police+grilling+in+the+Commons/article.do
“Today the Standard can reveal that police are focusing on more than 10 MPs. The Met has received more than 100 complaints about expenses.
At least 14 ministers are also facing serious questions about their tax affairs after it emerged they employed private accountants
I genuinely can’t believe that Cameron said that. Unlikely.
But crazy if true, out of character and dodgy on many levels. It worryingly suggests he is a bit out of touch and somewhat incompetent.
Would make a fun Labour poster.
Picture of Dave, the “quote” - I don’t know how many houses I own - and the question “Do you trust this man with your savings?”
It reminds me of Clegg’s pension gaff.
Evening Standard article:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23700777-details/MPs+expenses%3A+Police+grilling+in+the+Commons/article.do
112 - Quite a rogues gallery there,
http://i.thisislondon.co.uk/i/pix/2009/05/mps-415×406.jpg
Reading left to right,
Flipper / Tax Dodger,
BedSit Dosser / Porno / Claim Everything Until The Sun,
Tax Dodger,
Flipper / Tax Dodger,
Fraudster,
Fraudster
120. The one and only!
What a tool! His father is Home Sec. so he deals drugs! If that happened now Straw would be out on his ear!
Anyone watching Hattersley on BBC News? He says Blears should be sacked, but George Osborne is innocent!
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2009/05/lies-on-lib-dem-election-literature.html
Hilarious LD lies; trying to pretend that the Euro elections are constituency-specific. Attemping to encourage FPTP voting patterns in a PR election.
119, I rather liked Thurso when I saw him some time ago on QT. He still had his Melchitt moustache then.
Dear god I hope Caroline Lucas gets hit in the face with a meteorite on her way to the studio.
119- Does anyone know which MP has the most acres of land in Britain?
Mine would have two if I could only knee him in the groin!
109 Tabman - get the quotes right if you are going to be timmish about it and keep repeating (I did post a comment on day article was published).
“You might be… Samantha owns a field in Scunthorpe but she doesn’t own a house…” - note not an estate, not some land but a field. You are inflating a field into some grand estate in your comments, her fathers estates are most likely in trust of some form and I doubt she’d inherit them.
126 ‘If that happened now Straw would be out on his ear!’
No he wouldn’t. There’s no sense of honour or shame amongst any of the professional politicians in government. Most of them appear to be above the law. Jack would be sitting happy.
125.
It looks Serious Doesnt it ?’
132, I don’t think being the father of someone who breaks the law should be considered an offence. People aren’t responsible for their relatives.
FPT. “antifrank says:
28/5/2009 at 7:45 am
An amazing editorial in the Times. It wouldn’t have been just plucked out of the ether, so I suppose it is a cue to someone specific. The chances of it being a coincidence, like that Telegraph crossword before D-Day, are slight.”
Can antifrank or anyone else elaborate on this story about the Telegraph crossword before D-Day?
The Cameron wealth argument is so pathetic and just turns off floating voters like myself,
“Do you believe your pay and expenses should be means tested”?
If you well do, go join the communist party!
The fact you are wealthy, your partner is wealthy, you inherited money, whatever it may be, should have no reflection on what you earn or what expenses you get for costs incurred in doing your job. Does anybody else have their pay docked due their wife earning a packet? Does anybody say sorry son that nice company car, can’t have it, I hear you made some good investment on the markets and got plenty in the bank? No, of course they don’t, you get paid what you negotiate / employer is willing to pay and expenses incurred are part of that package.
Cameron enters parliament and told you are allowed a 2nd home on expenses for your job, so he buys a house and claims the mortgage interest, as the rules state. He doesn’t claim for anything else (except one bit of maintenance which is more than the wisteria reported, included a leaking roof, etc!), and never claims the full £24k a year (unlike say, oh, NPMP for instance) and the problem is?
I’m not sure why anyone gets excited about the police moving in. Like every other “investigation”, it will come to nothing.
135 - ChristinaD, here you go:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1460892/D-Day-crosswords-are-still-a-few-clues-short-of-a-solution.html
135. On the telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1460892/D-Day-crosswords-are-still-a-few-clues-short-of-a-solution.html
This as well
http://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/England-History/Crossword.htm
Just type d day and telegraph crossword into google…
136. I think it does Labour no good at all. Counter productive and any tories who were in the wavering column (Due to expenses) actually are repelled back to the tories!
Now which party was it who, not so long ago, said it had no problem with people being rich..?
Tabman - you are Charles Hardwidge and I claim my £5.
142 - isn’t he that loon on the BBC blogs that I automatically skip the posts of?
.
Even Happy Hattersley sez Blears must be sacked.
Hattersley: I wish Brown would say what he believes on this and other issues
Former Labour deputy leader, Lord Hattersley repeated his call for Hazel Blears to be sacked from the government, adding he wished the Prime Minister would say what he believed on a number of issues.
Avoiding taxes, like capital gains tax, as done by Ms Blears may be legal, but: “It revolts all sense of what the Labour party and Gordon Brown stands for.”
“It’s time for Gordon Brown to show what he really thinks. I just wish he would say what he believes on this and other issues,” he said.
Pressed to say he believed Hazel Blears should be sacked, he said: “I said that last night. I have no problem saying that, of course she should go. The Prime Minister is a good deal more tender-hearted than I am”.
How does the methodology differ from the YouGov poll in 2004 that showed 21% of people who were certain to vote were supporting UKIP? Obviously that was far higher than their final total.
130 JohnS - very good - had to read that one twice!
In other news,
Concerns grow over Vauxhall jobs
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8071297.stm
Hewlett Packard to cut 840 jobs
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/8071596.stm
143. An infestation of C H has appeared on Guido, almost as bad as DES or Emily Goerballs-Powell-Moseley-Patriot.
144 - Hmm,
“It revolts all sense of what the Labour party and Gordon Brown stands for.”
Except that is exactly the Great Leader did, set up all his affairs to minimise his tax and offload his flat to his wife. Oh and don’t forget Darling, the man in charge of setting the tax rules, what has he been up to then?
What about the big fish?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/david_hughes/blog/2009/05/28/mps_expenses_what_about_the_big_fish
136 - Isn’t the problem that he owned a house in London already so faced with “use it or lose it” on the allowance he mortgaged the London property so he could claim against it? In that sense it was an artificial claim - he would have had a country and London home whether he was an MP or not because he is sufficiently wealthy to do so.
It’s not the same as, say, not actually using the house, but is a little bit morally ambiguous. Personally, I put it in the same class as Norman Baker paying rent (which nobody suggests was above market rent) to himself. Grey area and I would personally say just about okay but can see the counterargument and it isn’t “whiter than white”. He’s not the only MP in a similar position (all parties) but as leader, it would have been nice for him to be ultra-clean (cleaner than necessary).
150 - Hmm, I wonder if the Telegraph are going to return to the worst offenders and give them another bashing? I certainly hope so!
138.Antifrank, many thanks, what a fascinating tale! I could just imagine the rumpus causes by all those key D-Day appearing one by one right up until the day itself.
138 antifrank
A great story. Thanks!
153 - It is an astonishing tale. Somehow I don’t think that today’s Times editorial has quite the same degree of fortuitous synchronicity. I did like the cheeky echo of “this is my moment”: the editorial writer must have been very pleased to get that sly reference in.
152 - It is interesting how schizoid the Telegraph seems over this.
151 James
Don’t be ridiculous. Even the Guardian thinks Cameron is the cleanest of the three party leaders.
Non-London MPs are supposed to be able to claim for expenses relating to one of the two homes they need. End of story, in Cameron’s case.
.
150. You have the Telegraph itself, followed very closely by the BBC and SKY for the attention on comparative small fry. Probably with the connivance of the government.
From the Speccie:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3651333/this-time-the-postman-is-ready-to-deliver.thtml
Kirkbride witch-hunt led by Respect
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/47974,news,the-mole-julie-kirkbride-pushed-out-by-george-galloway-respect-party-tory-mp
125
Those are the sort of faces that half-bricks were made for…
128.”Hilarious LD lies; trying to pretend that the Euro elections are constituency-specific. Attemping to encourage FPTP voting patterns in a PR election.”
I brought this up last night on PB.com. The small print states that its the 2005 Westminster Election Result. The cute bit is the fact that the word ‘Westminster’ is printed across the dark blue of the Tory block on mine, and the Tories are in 2nd place in this chart. Would be interested to know if the small print moves with that Tory block?
I asked last night if this was the Libdem Euro leaflet, or is that still to come? Who was funding this leaflet? In light of the contents of these bespoke constituency leaflets, I am assuming that it was the Libdem party which funded them?
16
Since UKIP took immediate action and threw out the MEPs who were implicated in the scandals I suspect the last thing the major parties would want to do is draw attention to them. It would just highlight how relatively poor the response has been by the ‘big’ 3.
160.
Lets get on to the respect party and ask that they now channel all their efforts towards removing the cabinet thieves !
Can I ask where this Cameron ‘mortgage on London home’ thing came from? I was under the impression his claims were for his Oxfordshire home, or is it the case that he used a mortgage on his London home to pay for the Oxford one, and is now recouping it? Either way it seems entirely acceptable to me. Just interested.
159 C
A couple of very astute points are made in that article:
Oddly, the worse the Tories do, the worse it is for Brown. A poor Tory performance will show Labour MPs that the Tories haven’t sealed the deal, that they could still save themselves.
and:
Now, I expect CoffeeHousers are saying didn’t we see this movie last summer. But as one Labour insider said to me, there’s a crucial difference: “No leader candidate last time, one [Alan Johnson] this time: that could be all the difference some people need.”
The second point in particular might remove one of the main obstacles to a putsch.
If the D Day Crossword story is not common knowledge then perhaps some PBers are unaware of two other important Crossword nuggets:
1. Martin Bell’s father, Adrian Bell, compiled the very first Times Crossword.
2. Britney Spears is an anagram of Presbyterians.
164. Or George Galloway! Not in relation to expenses but the fact he is not the best attender IIRC!
163 What rot! Sorry, but that holier-than-thou UKIP are “whiter than white, purer than pure” doesn’t pass the smell test. Nor the quick google test either.
Try out some details here:
http://juniusonukip.blogspot.com/2009/05/ukip-briefing.html
158
“With the connivance of the government”
You believe the McBride channel is still open?
Small fry- big fry - the cabinet is impervious
157 - Some non-London MPs have taken the view that their existing arrangements are sufficient without the allowance for one reason or another (e.g. Kelvin Hopkins in Luton North - one reason why Moran got into such trouble). On a purist view, Cameron’s were sufficient without the allowance.
As I say, personally, I think that’s a shade too purist but there is a real grey area there.
160
First praiseworthy thing Galloway has ever done?
172
Nothing Galloway does is ever praiseworthy, period.
172. No - he coined the phrase that ‘Brown and Blair were two cheeks of the same arse!’
The Labour star chamber consists of dogsbodies - no accountants or lawyers (or MPs or ex-MPs)
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/david_hughes/blog/2009/05/28/mps_expenses_gordon_brown_plays_the_godfather
166 - I think the big problem is with treating the Euro elections as any form of predictor in any normal cycle, in these frenetic times then changing leaders on the back of them could be the an error almost as big as electing Brown in the first place.
172/173, surely it was mirthful watching him smash Senator Hank Moosejaw in America?
166 - If you take the view that it is now pretty likely to happen and if you take the view that Alan Johnson is going to be the only serious candidate, there is a lot of money to be made on the SPIN next Labour leader market by selling other candidates. I would certainly argue that several of the names listed there can safely be sold, even if you don’t think a putsch is in the offing.
How many times have we written about how Labour always chooses the obvious candidate? As of today, there is an obvious candidate.
175 - No surprise there then, I won’t forget his “independent” panel of the Butcher, the Baker and the Candlestick maker type figures for the Abrahams scandal, which surprisingly never reported or if they did it was buried.
143 David - yes, he was also an enthusiastic supporter on Draperlist and sometime Guido poster.
His famous line is that he is ‘too lazy’ to have a blog.
Yeah right.
177 - I think the best thing about Gorgeous George is that the Canadians refused to allow him in!
Interesting thread on ConHome re celebrity candidates for the general election. Eg. Terry Waite, Esther Rantzen, etc.
Most seem to be aimed at marginal or Tory seats.
Shades of Alistair Campbell encouraging Martin Bell to get Hamilton’s seat.
126. Perhaps Will would agree. Wasn’t he seen marching against the Iraq war while chanting “Straw out”?
182 - Yeah because what we need is a five year version of Big Brother rather than a Parliament.
The Will Straw thing is yet another example of the old “keeping it in the family” Labour mentality. Crewe & Nantwich, get the daugther in, Martin wants his son in, Prescott wanted his son in, trying to get youngster Gould aided by Ali Campbell and top brass, etc.
Can children of Labourites not get proper jobs?
182 Of course Labour are going to try to use their few remaining friend to cause maximum disruption in seats the Tories need to win.
It won’t be enough though.
Oracle. I don’t totally agree. Where the Tories have been hurt by this widespread scandal is on what some would term the ‘class envy’ side (sic Anthony Steen - my MP, but not for long
). Whatever the motivation - whether it be ‘envy’ as a lot of Tories claim it is - or a perception of ’social justice’ - there are many people in the electorate who feel that the Tories attack ’state spongers’ when they are poor, but seem to let ‘their own’ get away with it. As rational as your point seems to you, there are many people who would not understand why anyone who is so rich could not pay for his own mortgage. After all, there are plenty of people who work in London and live in Oxford and commute by train - a house in London really is a luxury.
At the root of it Tabman is saying that Cameron is personally aware that this is the case which is why he tried to answer the question ‘expediently’. That is why it may have some political mileage.
ES story on Police investigation seems to be about an hour old and nothing on BBC web page yet.
What was that about Pravda?
152 - couldn’t resist leaving a comment on his blog
186, I’m more worried by postal voting. Here’s my top election tip:
buy shares in Tippex a few weeks before postal voting commences.
188.
You won’t see it either - When its anything to do with Labour they are “programmed not to comment”
Anybody been following the opening of the postal ballots? People I’ve spoken to say that UKIP vote is up at the expense of the Tories - in Linconshire at least. What price UKIP emerging as the largest party?
178. His SPIN price has moved, but “A ‘caretaker leader’ will NOT count as a permanent leader.”
Interesting new Coffee House post…
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3651433/why-the-daily-mail-thinks-a-three-yearold-interview-with-gordon-brown-will-change-peoples-opinions-of-him.thtml
178 antifrank
Certainly if there IS a pre-GE change of leader, it now seems almost certain that it will be Johnson. (I wonder, incidentally, whether this is pure coincidence, or whether a certain Lord has been gently steering the media narrative.). I’ll have a think about your suggestion.
Incidentally I think it may be worth looking at a multi-candidate sell on the Next Speaker market (combined with Lays on Betfair where the odds are shorter). This looks to me like a ‘none of the above’ market; it’s easier to rule out candidates than figure out who will actually get chosen in the end.
194 - Has Dacre been on gardening leave from the Mail for the past year or so, and now returned to the fold to back his mate up? The Mail really is a weird paper, it have been bashing the government constantly, it is the one that is always reporting the Gordo threw this or that, Gordo screamed and shouted at x or y, now they are going to try and do a soft soaper!
The problem is with spouting this interview, is it in is print, so a) will people believe it, b) it doesn’t have anywhere near the same effect as seeing photo / videos and c) it just doesn’t match up to how he is in public, it just isn’t believable to most (even if it is true) d) it is written by a friend and e) there are just too many examples of Brown acting as a complete bully.
Ed “Balls it up” in the standard Brown has acted more tough than Cameron” over expenses scandal - what planet is old blinky living on ?
194. Why would the Mail want to help Brown? Brown has ruined this country!
182 - Is that really right? Rantzen was targeting a Labour seat, Waite looks to be targeting a Tory (in Bury St Edmunds) and although Heffer is said to be after Haselhurst, he is not exactly a Labour stodge.
196: I was going to say the same thing. People’s opinions of Brown have been formed over the last 20years. One interview from a friend which is three years old isn’t going to overwrite that.
195 - That is something that I’ve been thinking about also. I am, however, very wary of the next Speaker market, even laying apparent no-hopers, because the electors are so capricious and have such complex motivations.
The big breakthrough for Alan Johnson came when Harriet Harman signalled that she wouldn’t stand in his way. Alan Johnson evidently has powerful backers, but that was the point when he became the front-runner if Gordon Brown is ousted or steps aside before the next election.
194 - too late for a sob story now, that was popped when Ivan Cameron died.
I can’t see it cutting any ice with Mail readers - even the Femail ones.
Very odd buying decision.
194
Why would that change anything. His actions speak louder than any words
201: I don’t trust what Harman says. I would not rule her out for a leadership bid. She won’t knife Gordon, but after a elction defeat, I think she’ll go for it.
199
Moran’s seat is a marginal that is likely to fall to the tories.
199 “a Labour stodge.” Nice spelling error. Heffer is indeed all stodge, personally and intellectually.
I would imagine that Cameron does not know what he owns from day to day, if the herd on here are correct and the family are involved in a long and complex IHT avoidance scheme.
197 That is just an outright lie. Balls is utterly shameless. Clearly beyond the point of caring whether he retains a credible public face - perhaps he knows his days are numbered?
Just a thought, maybe it isn’t a Save Gordo plan, rather an attempt when he get the heave ho for him to go out with the narrative of a misunderstand man, who has suffered terrible personals tragedies and now been knifed in the back by his own Party.
Maybe a last gift from Dacre to try and soften the blow for Gordo, because as things stand I really can see him being an incredibley unpopular man for many many years to come (and so he should be IMO). I just can’t see how like Blair or Major he is going to ever be able to potter around the place and find many friends. The public hate him, most of his party hate him, and if they lose the GE, the ones that don’t will blame him.
Even, Thatcher the marmite PM, wasn’t short of allies / friends when she finally went and still loved far too much for my liking by many Tories.
169
Hahaha
You’ll have to do better than that I’m afraid. Or perhaps we should use Arthur Scargill’s blog as a reference for the pros and cons of Thatcher.
201 antifrank
I agree about laying individual candidates on the Speaker market, but only one can win! There are lots of names; you just need to lay enough of them at reasonable odds.
The implication from the Speccie article is that Johnson (if coronated) will step down after the election defeat, which leaves the way open for Hattie and others to fight it out, and makes all the betting options tricky if he isn’t seen as “permanent”
7: ‘I see that Esther Rantzen has said that she might still stand’
Awful woman! I hope it will come out that she advocated the introduction of a police state.
194 198
I read it quick and thoght it read “A three year old interviews Brown” - In which case a three year old maybe able to undertstand the madman more than the rest of us !
207
SMEAR ALERT
“involved in a long and complex IHT avoidance scheme”
As is any and every rich person with an ounce of sense, t-bot. Does that make you curse into your pillow every night?
174. He also said that being lectured on the ethics of political fundraising by the House of Commons was like being told to sit up straight by the hunchback of Notre Dame.
207: What you call avoidance scheme, I call Tax planning. Something the entire cabinet seems to know very well.
210 Perhaps you would like to point out the factual inaccuracies? Otherwise I’ll take your “hahaha” as a nervous laugh…
213. I notice she still does those adverts for no win no fee.
As someone who used to work in the Claims industry those adverts are seriously misleading about the amount of cash you get paid out!
If I was rich, I would have a complex tax avoidance strategy as well. I wouldn’t charge the accountant’s fee to the taxpayer though.
215 - I think ‘tim says’ is enough to alert us to that!!
212. Scott P. If Johnson is crowned, would he go after a defeat? He’s the same age as Harriet. Why should he go after a single electoral defeat? If Harriet wants to be leader she has to stand at the next leadership election no matter what. Otherwise she is overtaken by Milibands, Burnham etc. Also my favoured dark horse - Hilary Benn is only 3 years younger than Harman and Johnson.
If Brown goes, then Balls must fight for a place at the top as well. For otherwise the evil scheming Brownites are going to be public enemy no.1 inside the party. Miliband Major must fight to establish credibility.
So no coronation. A no holds barred multi candidate mud wrestling match.
tim says:
28/5/2009 at 4:18 pm
I would imagine that Cameron does not know what he owns from day to day, if the herd on here are correct and the family are involved in a long and complex IHT avoidance scheme.
tim, I realise that with you being unemployed it is easy to be bitter toward people who are wealthier than you are. However, Cameron can no more help being born rich than he could if he was born black. Your class envy is very tedious and you should be ashamed of yourself.
So that’s the Wintertons and the Mackays gone - and good riddance to them.
Can anyone enlighten me why the Balls and the Keens are still sailing serenely on, noses firmly stuck in troughs?
BREAKING NEWS
Chris Fraser - Tory standing down.
220 - I watched a Cameron Direct the other day, he mentioned No Win No Fee with quite a bit of disgust that the culture it breads, and then kinda of shut up fast.
Got me wondering if he has a plan for it, remember it wasn’t always like the crazed overly cautious H&S litigation obsessed outlook to everything, until the current government opened up this terrible can of worms.
Another one bites the dust, Chris Fraser MP to stand down.
222 Perhaps in his case it would be easier if it said “Tim smears”
228 - Another tree man right? Cameron got the axe out today!
216/218 - I knew we would agree.
And it explains the sensitivity.
215 - see 216/218.
226. Who he? And what did he do?
Regarding the internal movements of the Labour Party I just don’t believe Postie Al will have the guts, ultimately, to destroy Brown. I don’t think he wants it enough to do what will need to be done.
220: ‘I notice she still does those adverts for no win no fee.’
Really? So she exploits the vulnerable and unfortunate, advocates that people should be given prison sentences on the whim of police authorities and presented the most nauseous, mawkish show ever to defile British TV screens - ‘Hearts of Gold’. And the Labour Party wants to form tactical alliances with this woman?
229: The ironic thing is that if tim were a real farmer, he would know full well how complicated land transactions can be. Farmers are the worst for having bits of land and properties all over the place, with part shares, things in trusts, in probate etc etc.
223 - I think in order to win the broad support for a coronation, he would need to promise to go if defeated. Otherwise a lot of people would rather go to (heavy) defeat with Brown and take their chances going for the crown then.
232 - Bought some tree using taxpayer money.
Until I saw the bbc website
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8070742.stm
I could have sworn that Julie Kirkbride was quite attractive compared with Margaret Moran.
http://news.sky.com/skynews
226. Plato. Ah another tree man. “I needed trees for my boundary”. WTF. Idiot. Good riddance.
I missed Chris Fraser’s story first time round. Here it is:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5384295/MPs-expenses-Christopher-Fraser-says-that-claim-for-trees-was-necessary.html
If Gordon goes after the Euros with his 5 Year Plan and Constitutional Renewal ineffective, and the postman is indeed crowned rather than face an election then what does PM Johnson do about the Cabinet? Who moves where, who goes, who stays?
Darling has to go to show change surely? Smith to show sleaze is out, probably accompanied by Hoon? Nick Brown back into obscurity? The Brown Tendency will need some goodies (while Gordon glowers from the back benches), Balls for Chancellor? Darling couldn’t be given Home Office because majority of that is England as is Justice, hard to see him in another economic ministry but then its difficult to see where to put him besides the back benches, Miliband perhaps to Home Office, Mandelson to Foreign?
228. Oh yes i remeber that case - I thought he should go at the time!
If the Tories get shot of all these MPs then Labour is going to have a very tough time at the next election. For instance caroline flint could be portrayed like this!
http://delivernothinglabourparty.blogspot.com/2009/05/labour-mps-have-never-had-it-so-good.html
226 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5384295/MPs-expenses-Christopher-Fraser-says-that-claim-for-trees-was-necessary.html
226 - Prospect for Dale having stood in the same county last time?
207 dont want to feed the troll, but why would anyone not want to avoid IHT if they could help it ?
the threshold for government theft of 40% of your parents estates is only set at about £200,000 - the price of a 2 bedroom flat.
Why should i pay tax on death on property or other wealth, on which tax has already been paid at least once? It’s just pure theft, death duties, and affects people of even fairly modest means.
Or maybe in Tim’s enlightened world, all families should be stripped of all wealth they earn in a lifetime, by the government when they die, to be spent in a heartbeat on paying the interest on the public debt that the Labour Party has built up and it’s bloated state. They can f** off.
231: We agree that everyone with an ounce of common sense and is well off, does something which is perfectly legal and morally acceptable…
Good glad we agree.
Is anyone else experiencing issues refreshing? If so, Mike could you look at cutting the page sizes?
218- That’s a very important distinction, between tax avoidance and tax evasion. While tax evasion is a crime, nothing could be more natural or rational than tax avoidance. I say that because the tax code is used not only to raise revenues but also to influence behavior by making certain actions more costly than others. For example, a lifelong smoker who decides to kick the habit after the latest increase in the cigarette tax is engaged in tax avoidance, just as the government had intended (or at least, the government was hoping to either raise more revenues or diminish smoking, or both). Ergo, there is nothing wrong, either legally or morally, with tax avoidance.
Thanks Oracle.
237 - I think she looks better than Moran on the BBC website too.
Still wouldn’t with either though - which must come as some crumb of comfort for both in these dark times.
235. James. It doesnt help Harriet - a post defeat would almost certainly mean a younger leader. Also such an agreement would be secret (hardly helpful for morale - I’m leader until we lose) meaning it is subject to reneging. Also Balls would never agree. Campaigning as Brown’s right hand when Brown is PM and is a “wronged man”, would be a lot more of a winner than being right hand to the scheming sleazy scuzzpuck who destroyed the party after PM Johnson loses the next election.
Interesting from Paul Waugh:
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/05/camerons-leadership-test.html
Somebody just mentioned something on the Speccy Blog in the comments about the Postie that I completely forgot.
We all know tough decisions are needed to get the economy back on track, and big spending cuts are coming (regardless of who wins) in order just to manage the huge debt that Gordo the Great has saddled us with, etc, etc.
In other words, tough decisions required, and there will definitely be unpopular ones in combination with further tax rises.
Anybody remember Postie and his negotiations with the Unions about public sector pensions (another really big problem), I nearly forgot myself, he completely caved into their demands and basically ran away from the tackling the problem. Not a good sign really for somebody who could be PM with the future that lies ahead.
Martin - your Photoshop skills are quite brilliant.
Flint reminds me of Fenella Fielding in Carry on Screaming
237. So are you saying that Kirkbride looks particularly bad, or Moron looks particularly attractive?
219
Not nervous at all. Just interested in the truth. Unlike you it seems.
As smears go that is pretty good.
As for facts.
Ashley Mote: “UKIP did attempt to distance itself from Mote, but only after the charges became public.”
Well it would have been difficult to do so before hand since they weren’t known. In fact like all other candidates for most major parties Mote has signed a declaration at the time of becoming a UKIP candidate that specifically asked whether he had any previous convictions or pending charges etc. Since he did not declare the charges it would seem to me that the action UKIP took to throw him out as soon as these became known is about the most any party could do.
How many Labour or Tory MPs have so far been thrown out of the party for what they have done?
Tom Wise: was thrown out of the party as soon as the charges were laid against him. In fact it was another UKIP member and his own assistant who blew the whistle on him and instigated the investigation.
So the first two examples (and the most serious) are immediately proved to be incorrect.
Like I say, you really should pick your sources better.
Meanwhile …. over at Mrs Dale’s dairy the head udder tugger is having the milking stool pulled from under him because of his robust defence of Ms Kilbride …. Not pretty :
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
244 - If by “about £200,000″ you mean £325,000 and if by “your parents” you mean each of them, then you are quite correct.
212 Scott P
Surely if there is a change the new leader will be nominally ‘permanent’, so the bookies should pay up. I can’t see Labour being so stupid as to go into an election with a leader who doesn’t even pretend to be trying to become PM.
Does anyone know what local media reaction has been like over expenses for Cooper and Ballls
I am so glad that we are all in agreement that the reason for Camerons sensitivity over what he owns is IHT avoidance.
I am at one with the herd.
251.c, interesting angle on Cameron’s stance on misbehaving MP’s, and one I warned about here and on ConHom last week when many were pouring vitriol on Nadine’s head. Unfortunately for Cameron, the ConHom team have been leading the march on this in recent days, and have in fact done more harm than good.
256 - I think though that the public needs to take a step back and not run straight for the burning torches and pitchforks. We have a right to be angry, but frankly some of the vox pops I’ve seen are really ugly, and I think will put off decent people from getting involved in politics.
BTW I utilised that kangaroo pic you found the other day for my blog, it was a classic!!
251. I think what Waugh gets wrong its that by making life difficult for his MP’s, that exactly WHY Cameron has passed this leadership test. Of course his MP’s don’t like going out into their constituency’s and explaining themselves. Thats the point, I think. Cameron knows the boil is either lanced now with his MP’s subjecting themselves to the witch hunt and in some cases having to resign, or the public will themselves lance the boil at the election. Theres no easy solution to all this, but Cameron has chosen the least worst approach, IMO.
re 244 James A I take it you live in London. I could get you a five bedroomed house for £200k round here.
256.JackW, fair enough, but I am with Iain Dale on this. He is beginning to realise what a dangerous game it really is.
Can anyone, for the love of God, please explain how “police to investigate several Cabinet members” not the headline, everywhere?
Only the Evening Standard seems to have the story. The press seem to have their heads buried in the sand.
Totally OT
But, shitthebed. Have you all seen the recent move in Bonds? Particularly the US ones?
10 Year US Treasury yielded 3.01% a month ago. Now yields 3.67%.
20% rise in month!!!! :Yikes:
263 Gin
is there a danger for cameron that as more conservatives step down the public believes they had their snouts more deeply in the trough than labour? Standing down is an admission of guilt. If Labour admits less will it seem less guilty?
93. “Why is he too embaressed to say it like it is?”
Even if you are not a politician it’s usual to be self-effacing in such matters. You don’t say “a huge estate in Lincolnshire, a demesne whose immensity a pauper like you could scarcely grasp”, you say “some land”.
261, 263 Christina D, Gin. I tend to agree with Gin. There was no easy way to deal with this and Cameron was right to say that elected representatives need to go and speak to their constituencies. I also believe GIN’s point about lancing the boil is a good one. Cameron today stated that his scrutiny panel has nearly completed its work - expect a few more Tory MP’s to stand down in the next week or so. If the panel has done it’s job properly then the expenses issue will be more or less over for the Conservatives. Short term pain for longer term gain.
261: Do you think it is wrong for Mp’s to stand down? I usually agree with your point of view but Nadine is a danger to herself. It is very sad to see.
Obama’s brother-in-law wants to run (as a Conservative) in Bracknell
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23700807-details/BREAKING+NEWS%3A+Obama%27s+brother-in-law+to+run+for+MP+in+Bracknell/article.do
EDIT: and he sounds (albeit only on the basis of a very short article) like a fantastic candidate.
268 - I don’t think so, I think the public will just see them as more lympet(sp?) like.
268 - I’m not sure the public will have a head count of backbenchers, especially in several months time and remember that Tories x vs Labour y.
The big problem Labour have, and aren’t dealing with, is the massive elephant in the room, the fact that the cabinet are all up to their necks in it (Postie excluded) and aren’t going anywhere. How many months has Jacqui Smith and McNumpty held on?
Also, the more you get rid, the more when it comes to the GE the material from the opposition isn’t going to read and your current MP is a complete trougher who claimed for x,y and z. The more MP’s that fit that description come the GE, the more trouble you are in.
Meanwhile in the real world, the revelation that Julie Kirkbride and Margaret Moran are to stand down is only the fourth most read story on the BBC website, far behind a plea from Piers Morgan to lay off Susan Boyle and only one place ahead of a story about a Welsh family who saw the face of Jesus on the lid of a jar of Marmite.
270&271.No, I don’t think its wrong for MP’s to stand down if they have misbehaved. But I do think that you have to be careful not to feed the mob when you are taking the tough decisions that any leader has to. I said last week that Cameron had to tread a very fine line on this, and nothing I have seen since has made me change my mind on this.
272: Well thats the headline in all tomorrows papers. Gordon will not be pleased.
I also agree with Gin, flush out now people that may lose their seats anyway then Camhold a press conferance next week and say Labour using another commitee / review taking months, half the cabinet still in their jobs etc etc !!
267…interest rates must rise and quickly.
258. Richard. The bookies are very explicit that “caretaker” doesn’t count, although of course the definition of caretaker is left open.
Given that Shadsy has not paid up on Hannan yet, and Hill’s have not paid up on Gorbals Mick, I think it is entirely possible they would find a reason to not pay up on Johnson
261. ChristinaD. Kirkbride was toast because her defence to the main charge - no main home wasnt good enough. It boiled down to I listened to my husband, who was an idiot. It just wasnt a very good defence.
Her defence was made worse by the obvious sense of entitlement - the whole childcare thing - and the idiotic “it was in the rules”.
I thought that she had a position that could be argued, but it’s become clear that the media and the local Respect led protest had finished her with the locals.
Everything else was either not wrong or minor - the sister, the brother, the extension, the pictures. But, I thought her defence to the main problem was just too weak. It’s why I think Dale is wrong.
272 - Sounds like a rather dull man who used to be married to the President’s sister and who for some bizarre reason sees that as good enough reason why he should be an MP.
UKIP etc:
My gut says UKIP/GRN/BNP will all do better than my head says they will.
Posh Cammo:
One thing Cameron needs to bear in mind when trying to deal with this attack is the people Labour are trying to motivate with it are *far* more prejudiced against wimps than they are against Toffs.
What he really needs is a Tebbit, someone who can speak plain without sounding undignified, who can say stuff like “yes he’s a multi-millionaire already unlike Labour cabinet ministers who get rich off taxpayer’s money” blah blah.
Pickles could almost do it but is a bit too genial looking - need someone like Tebbit who gives off an air of menace and always sounds like they’re having to concentrate to speak proper(ly).
276: It is the local media reaction that matters in the long run, that is why they all have to go.
275.And barely a mention of the two soldiers that died today, sadly.
tim, can you for once provide a straight answer. Why are you so obsessed with IHT when with your current unemployed state your are never going to be in a position to pay it?
266. wibbler: Can anyone, for the love of God, please explain how “police to investigate several Cabinet members” not the headline, everywhere?
Doesn’t fit the narrative.
228 SW Norfolk is up for grabs then??? Lovely chance for someone - its rock solid Tory (stayed solid in 97) - Gillian Shepherds old stomping ground.
Even Mrs Dale could romp home there…
281 - I agree that her defence was weak, but I think the problem is that even if her defence had been strong this kangaroo court of public opinion would just have declared it inadmissable. We are in serious danger of offending against natural justice if we aren’t careful, yes MP’s have let us down but this swinging from lamp posts zeitgeist is profoundly troubling.
262/265 James B/ChristinaD. Of course there’s an element of mob justice to some of the falls from grace. However much of the speen venting by the public is fully justified.
The troughing by too many MP’s is disgusting. Plain and simple. Worse at a time when many in the nation are struggling desperately to keep their heads above water we have the spectacle of those who should be giving a lead are now found to be engaging in rampant and shameless greed of the first order.
Shameless MP’s have sown the wind and the public will reap a whirlwind of retribution.
We are not finished yet !!
280 - But “caretaker” definitely wouldn’t cover Johnson. A caretaker is clearly an acting leader who takes over if Brown steps under a bus but either loses or does not contest the hastily arranged leadership contest that would follow. Johnson may (or may not) only be leader briefly, but I think there is no suggestion he would meet the “caretaker” definition as the bookies mean it and we all understand it.
281.Ken, I think that Dale’s position on the media/mob rule is much more nuanced than that. Are ConHom going to run a poll on whether a Tory MP should go every time one of them is in the news?
276 Christina D. I suppose my point is that there is a danger that this drags on. Cameron has probably calculated that in each case there will be a reckoning sooner or later. Better to face that reckoning now rather than for these issues to drag on and on, especially during an election campaign you don’t want to be distracted by this sort of stuff.
I suspect the Labour approach (to keep quiet and hope it goes away) will backfire on them more in the longer run.
I believe the Tories will be hit in the polls in the short term but they will probably recover.
Sky are reporting that Christopher Fraser MP is standing down. Also that Eton is closing for a week as one of the pupils has swine flu.
290 Jack W
Yes, the reports a few months ago which indicated that something like 50 MPs would go looks well within range. Of course many will be ‘retiring’ rather than resigning in disgrace.
289.JB. But no one else is subject to this. Gove survived easily. The Tories who’ve gone are idiots who claimed for silly things. The guy who claimed for a mortgage but wrote the wrong address has survived.
I don’t think that you could whip up this pressure on an innocent. However, I do wonder why there are not more people demanding Labour MPs stand down. Ian Gibson should definitely suffer that fate.
280 - I believe the bookies are explicit about excluding caretakers because the Labour constitution states that the deputy automatically becomes leader – not acting leader – if the incumbent resigns or dies. So Maragaret Beckett was Labour leader for two months in 1994 after John Smith died. If such circumstances were to be repeated, the bookies would only pay out on Blair, not Beckett.
The situation with Johnson would be different. If he were elected as leader they’d have to pay out, even if it was his stated intention only to be in the job for a short period (and that would be a bizarre and, imho, highly unlikely circumstance).
282 James
He seems to have run multiple successful businesses. And, given the Obama angle, and the general tone of the article, he probably has a relatively humble background. Sounds like a Philip Hammond type figure; a great Cameroon.
The Obama angle is just fluff, but fluff which makes for great headlines. And if it stops Labour’s shameless monopolizing of the ‘Obama image’, well, all the better…
291. It may be uncharitable, but I suspect “caretaker” will be extended to cover “any leader not chosen as a result of a full and formal selection process and election” and the Speccie story explicitly says that Johnson would be coronated and stand down after an election defeat.
293.C, I think that we are at cross purposes here, I support Cameron’s stance on being tough on this issue. But, he and ConHom etc, have to be careful not to actually end up feeding the mob rather than placating it with their actions.
274 are the cabinet troughers hoping that expense fatigue will set in before they are forced out? I have a fear of that happening and it would make me mad!
292. ChristinaD. I agree ConHome are a bit “zealous”. However, Dale kept defending Kirkbride with the fatuous argument that it put off mothers. FFS. Motherhood does not excuse two MPs claiming ACA on both their homes. The excuse has to be rilly, rilly good. It wasnt.
294
Oh you’ve done it now. Mention the E word and tim is likely to go berserk.
299 - They can’t just crown Johnson as leader without going through the constitutional process, in which case the bookies would have to pay out. The only possible caretaker would be Harman, who automatically becomes leader if Brown resigns.
Ironic headline competition
“UKIP benefit from expenses backlash”
“Galloways Party pursue corrupt MP’s”
296 - I suppose, I just don’t like where we will could be heading in this. The newspapers are wielding power without responsibility here and I think that whilst it is a vain hope they should lay off for a bit. Some of the stories haven’t been exactly 100% accurate after all.
Christopher Fraser has taken the ‘Lord Rennard’ route: apparently he is standing down because of the ‘ill health of his wife’.
What a sham.
263. “I think what Waugh gets wrong its that by making life difficult for his MP’s, that exactly WHY Cameron has passed this leadership test.”
Agree. I’m expecting Tories will get a good boost after the Euros (anti EU is separate issue).
300: Conhome is never going to stop with its own agenda Tim M thinks he is leader of the conservative party.
292 - I’m not sure what Mrs Dale’s alternative is though.
Brown’s approach is (except for the most egregious breaches) to say he’ll look into it and kick it as far into the long grass as possible. The advantage is not to put blood in the water and to keep the sharks at bay for now. The disadvantage is there could be a world of long term pain and it also looks too lenient.
Cameron’s approach is to feed the sharks almost immediately even if it isn’t strictly necessary. The advantage is that the stories don’t fester too long. The disadvantage is a feeding frenzy and the sharks go after people for the slightest thing.
I don’t know for sure who is right - instinct says Cameron. But I am not clear what Dale suggests doing other than saving people Dale likes personally.
Speaking of Dorries.
http://www.bedfordtoday.co.uk/bed-news/Dorries-in-new-web-row.5311354.jp
oh dear.
309 - I think it is more that he doesn’t understand realpolitik and the fact that you sometimes have to compromise for a wider goal.
294/303 - It’ll just be a sniffle.
304. You might be right. For the avoidance of doubt, I have some money riding on various “next Labour leader” markets, and I will be delighted to win, but even though I think Johnson will lead them to defeat at the next election, I am not taking the opportunity to load up on the 3/1 generally available.
Maybe Shadsy can give us a definitive view?
300 ChristinaD. The mob is insatiable on this issue. Cameron and ConHome are feeding scraps.
For Cameron it’s politically important he stays onside of the baying mob. He nearly lost it with Kilbride but recovered. So far he’s deftly stayed ahead of the game and he’s very wise to do so. I’ve never known the punters so red faced with fury over an issue.
Having just driven down through Somerset,Wilts & Dorset, UKIP are certainly winning the poster war!
Great to hear Cameron praise Kirkbride, she’ll have something to, ‘offer in the future’ hmmm anyone work out what?
“The only possible caretaker would be Harman, who automatically becomes leader if Brown resigns.”
No she doesn’t, except a caretaker if Labour are in Opposition…
312 James - I think that is a great point. It is also a characteristic of Cameron that is often, IMHO, underestimated.
I think James is basically right. It wouldn’t have mattered whether Kirkbrides defence was roboust or not. The press were out to get her. She would have had to go whatever happened. Is it right that this witch hunt is taking place? No. Are we in danger of mob rule taking over? Yes. Is that a desirable thing? No. But theres no point complaing about it. The moment the Telegraph started publishing this stuff, it was inevitable that we was about to see a major disaster befall British democracy. The MP’s have brought much of it on themselves by ripping off the tax payer and then colluding to keep it covered up. And each and everyone of them could have come out the moment the Telegraph got the disks and published their own details. We could have at least ended this drip, drip, drip of details virtually straight the way if the MP’s hadn’t been so disasterously stupid.
Don’t forget as well, that Cameron did what he did because he was personally angry with what his MP’s have been up to. Who wouldn’t be? Since December 2005 he has been virtually single handedly dragging the Conservatives back to power. And his greedy MP’s have *almost* destroyed that strategy. We still don’t know how much damage has been inflicted on the Tories by all this (we’ll perhaps get a better idea this evening) but if it wasn’t for the fact that Labour have been as bad or worse, Camerons entire election strategy would be right now lying in tatters.
If there is an imminent YouGov, I guess C 35, Lab 26, LD 20. The last week has been all about the Tories’ expenses; anything about Labour has just been buried. That’s bound to have an impact.
315 She will stand in 2014/2015 I would imagine.
315 Posters don’t vote. Kirkbride could present location, location, location.
311 Classy woman. Dorries = huge ego = liability
310 “But I am not clear what Dale suggests doing other than saving people Dale likes personally” Nail, head.
318 - I think the problem is worse than that GIN, if the MP’s had done a controlled explosion under the Telegraph expenses story by publishing their expenses then instead of the Telegraph publishing revelations they would be going through and saying ‘MP X published this but the Telegraph has discovered that it was actually Y’.
319 its been all about the Tories full stop - including Cameron’s vision and the Tories ‘cleaning house’ so that might have an effect the other way.
As it happens though, I am still bearish on the Tory % - mid thirties for a while I fear and Labour getting away with moider.
315. I would guess Cameron is letting her go with dignity rather than dancing on her political grave. Of course, in practice, her carrer in politics is finished, but theres no need to humiliate her is there?
What are the odds on Sir John Butterfill’yerboots going next?
302.”However, Dale kept defending Kirkbride with the fatuous argument that it put off mothers. FFS. Motherhood does not excuse two MPs claiming ACA on both their homes. The excuse has to be rilly, rilly good. It wasnt.”
And there in all its glory is the main reason why so many males(especially the Tory ones) are missing the bigger picture on this!! Look Ken, I just spout my wee opinion on here like everyone else, but I know that Nadine was correct to highlight the effect of all this last week. She was just echoing my own gut instinct about the direction of this expenses scandal, and the very big dangers it holds for all the main parties in the short and longer terms.
Butterfill opens his wallet….
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1189103/MPs-EXPENSES-Tory-grandee-Sir-John-Butterfill-avoided-600-000-capital-gains-tax-including-17-000-servants-quarters.html
296 - exactly - the so-called mob hysteria just isn’t there - Kirkbride and Mackay were two of a kind.
He fell on his sword (good thing but clearly told to do it), she said it was his fault/feel sorry for her etc (carp self preservation tactic)
325 He announced last year he wouldn’t be standing.
If he hadn’t though, he would be favourite, there’s f all chance of most of the lefties taking responsibility for their actions. And as for the Lib Dem troughers….. lol
325. He’s going anyway…
tim, see that you are unable to answer a direct question even one on your own specialist subject. So why do you feel that you deserve the courtesy of an answer to any of the questions you raise on here? That is obviously a rhetorical question, the answer is your unswerving arrogance.
311 - Dorries is lying trash.
326 - Maybe the free press should reflect on how free they would be if the law of unintended consequences applied in full to their gleeful reporting of MP’s.
316 - I’ll defer to your knowledge of the Labour constitution on this one but she would become caretaker Labour leader but not necessarily PM if Brown stepped under a bus wouldn’t she? And I think the market (and the whole caretaker discussion) is about next Labour leader rather than next PM.
If I was an Mp I would have published my expenses my self. The mistake they all made was waiting for the Telegraph to out them.
332. TOTKO.
332 - Oh the irony.
316 - Ah is it different when Labour are in government? When they’re in opposition the deputy automatically becomes leader – technically they are a full leader, not an acting/caretaker leader, but for all practical purposes they are a caretaker. This is why the bookies have the caretaker clause.
re 333. Tim - would you use that terminology over a man? Yet again I detect a sexist.
Why are Dale’s opinions given any kind of credibility on here? My favourite part of his blog was the run up to the 2005 general election, where it became abundantly clear that he was not only confident of winning the seat, but it was a matter of by how much. Surely one of the most humiliating electoral performances ever.
.
.
Whilst Gordon Brown hides behind children, David Cameron spoke at the Royal Bath and West Show yesterday which is the largest agricultural show in England. He was addressing dozens of farmers during a “Cameron Direct question and answers” session, the consensus was they were happy with what they heard and saw.
The man has Cajones, I’ll give him that.
311 Mitchell Stirling
Nadine Dorries definitely isn’t scared of being extremely controversial.
I disagree entirely with her about this, as with much else. The difference between “serving” in Iraq and “fighting” in Iraq is next to zero, in my book. I’m certainly not brave enough to do either, and have tremendous respect for those who are.
The trouble with being controversial is that it attracts attention - much of it negative. And she doesn’t seem to particularly like that (unlike other figures who were ‘openly controversial’ like Tony Benn).
She is also remarkably ignorant about how she will be perceived - to almost Gordon Brown levels of naivety. There is just no way that her constituents will want to know about the difference between “serving” and “fighting”. It smacks a little of petty partisanship.
326.ChristinaD. Erm. So motherhood does excuse two MPs claiming ACA on both homes?
I’m in the rather odd position of defending Balls-Cooper. I can see why they flipped their second home and why they moved each time. They bought larger places and jointly claim on a single place. If Kirkbride and Mackay had done this, I would be defending them. But instead they went for claiming for both houses.
334. No, not automatically, when the party is in government.
Any cabinet minister could become leader, and hence PM, after being “chosen by the cabinet in consultation with the NEC.”
Harriet might well be front runner, or a no hoper, depending on your viewpoint. The essential point is that there is no automatic succession when Labour are in government….
My theory (prob wrong)
Wall to wall Tory sleaze on the telly = Tory poll boost (after the Euros).
Telly politics has gradually led to Presidential politics and what Pravda is accidentally doing is making Cameron look good and Presidential (unlike Ali McBaba and the 40 thieves).
Even if that theory’s wrong there’s option 2. Media guardianistas were always gong to try and make this a Tory sleaze story so Cameron had a choice of a) playing Mr Clean or b) defending the sleazers. So Mr Clean is the least worst option.
345 - Interesting, thanks.
333 - Takes one to know one.
338
We seem to learn new traits about Tim almost every day, They are almost universally unpleasant.
Harman says Brown will ‘continue to lead’ Labour after the elections. They mightn’t be in such a bad place if he actually started to lead Labour.
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/harman_brown_will_continue_to_lead_after_euro_polls.html
350 The Times won’t be happy!
315.”For Cameron it’s politically important he stays onside of the baying mob. He nearly lost it with Kilbride but recovered. So far he’s deftly stayed ahead of the game and he’s very wise to do so. I’ve never known the punters so red faced with fury over an issue.”
Agree with you JackW.
318.”GIN says:
28/5/2009 at 5:24 pm
I think James is basically right. It wouldn’t have mattered whether Kirkbrides defence was roboust or not. The press were out to get her. She would have had to go whatever happened. Is it right that this witch hunt is taking place? No. Are we in danger of mob rule taking over? Yes. Is that a desirable thing? No. But theres no point complaing about it.”
Exactly!! It was as Ted described so eloquently on the earlier thread, only there is no big beast that will take on the lions and the crocodiles. Only one I have seen standing up for the MP’s in all of this, is Nadine Dorries, and no one else put their head above the parapet. Still think its interesting that a few other MP’s immediately followed her lead in printing their Telegraph emails with their responses publicly.
344.Ken, no, but its odd that you picked up on that one thing in amongst all the other stuff don’t you think?? Tim just described Nadine Dorries in the most disgusting terms on this thread, what next?
341 Exceeded only by Rik Willis, who used to post on here about his impending triumph.
343. Wibbler. WTF is Dorries on about? Going to Iraq is dangerous. Even in the quiet times there is always the possibility of being hit by a sniper or by a bomb. It’s like going to N.Ireland during the troubles. Serving in the Green Slime in a HQ role isnt front line, but it’s still honourable service. Front line soldiers might have the right to be rude about intelligence weenies, but to the public, the difference is moot.
350- If they don’t wish for an early and disastrous election, they’d better back Brown. Isn’t it starting to seem a bit late in the day for switching leaders? Maybe just before May 2010, since an election is unavoidable then anyway, but otherwise, why switch and go to an early election? It just doesn’t make much sense anymore.
Is Shadsy missing a market?
Three MP’s agree to stand down in one day… there must be a market for the highest number of MP’s to stand down in one day , prior to the GE????
327 Chris - Julie was one of the shameless 21 who voted with Don Touhig’s Labour mob and Gordon Brown’s ministers last 3rd July against reform of the ACA. With possible exception of the Sainted Anne Widdecombe I’ve, perhaps wrongly, assumed the worst as regards their motives.
She was a goner the moment the story of her husband & herself organising their allowances and claims to best advantage was revealed. Then the story just got worse and worse for her. ConHome may have helped by showing just how little support she had.
New Cameron picture in state of undress:
http://tinyurl.com/lhvd5t
311/343
I think I might write a letter to Nadine. She clearly hasn’t a clue, which is surprising as there are so many tory MPs who know exactly what it is like being a squaddie, whatever their trade.
That bloke, David Reeves, might not have been knife fighting in the mountains, but let Nadine go and sit in Basra airport. She’ll find the locals amuse themselves shelling the base, sniping soldiers, mining the roads and trying to shoot down helicopters.
Grrrr
TOTKO translation service please?
Nadine Dorries will lose her seat if she stands. She’s utterly bonkers. I would vote against the sitting Tory if the sitting Tory was her.
Making statements like that show total disregard for the Forces and prove her to be a total liability.
The interesting thing about the expenses witch-hunt is that no-one knows where it may lead. Those who might have escaped so far may find their cases revisited on the basis of others subsequently falling on their swords for similar or lesser offences.
341 - well he gets 25k visitors a day.
360 - Takes One To Know One!
353 - In fairness, although Rik lost, it wasn’t by 10,000 and he did achieve a small swing in his favour. His bigger blogging blunder was glad-ted’s-dead-gate, which was a bit tasteless.
I’m glad that Kirkbride will be going. I want my MPs to be absolutely squeaky clean… above all to demonstrate that they feel keenly the need to save taxpayers’ money… not to play the system to their own advantage, however vague that system is.
345 Surely a leader appointed “when the leader becomes unavailable” is a new permanent leader, whether the deputy succeeds automatically (in opposition) or someone is appointed by the cabinet (in government). Margaret Beckett was as much leader is John Smith or Tony Blair was. An election should then be held at the party conference (although it was brought forward in the case of Beckett).
The interesting question is… if Johnson were to succeed Brown after the Euro elections, would he subject himself to election at the conference, or call a GE before?
One thing this whole row brings into question is how shocking the selection processes must be that out of 650 MPs we have such a large minority who treat their constituents with utter contempt.
And what a choice the voters of Peterborough were given in 2005!
363 - That’s no reason to take his views seriously. You could say the same about the Sunday Sport or the Beano.
Brown’s personal approval rating has fallen to -53%, Cameron’s and Clegg’s has both increased to 31% in the PoliticsHome (slightly voodoo, but regular) weekly poll:
http://page.politicshome.com/uk/expenses_push_browns_approval_ratings_to_new_low.html
Evening All!
Just to comment on this morning’s stories about how Miliband and Johnson are ready to challenge Brown if Labour takes a pasting. I’m reminded of a famous remark from the late Irish politician Conor Cruise O’Brien about how he would not believe that Charlie Haughey had been deposed as Taoiseach until he saw him “at the crossroads, staked through the heart and smothered in garlic,” that’s as it is with Brown. I still think that Labour will either do just well enough to keep him in place or the plotters will lose their nerve. The fact that apparently both Miliband and Johnson are considering throwing their hats into the ring suggests that there is no chance of an IDS scenario with a quick, clean kill and an agreed successor slotted in. In that scenario the Tories were in opposition and had nothing to lose by regicide, in contrast Labour are in power and many MP’s will probably want to enjoy those trappings until the last possible moment rather than risk a bloody leadership contest.
345 - Really, that’s very interesting. I’d been assuming that one of the reasons Brown is still there is that the PLP don’t want a leadership contest. Whereas actually the perfect mechanism exists for knifing him and installing someone else.
Or do they have to follow it up with a leadership contest?
367 - Beckett was not “as much leader is John Smith or Tony Blair was”. She was the caretaker leader.
366 - I love though the juxtaposition of people wanting their candidates to be more like themselves and then once they get elected that they be pure as the driven snow.
365 True, but he used to come on here and brag and boast, that’s what I found objectionable. Unlike, say, Marcus and NickPMP.
367. He might “subject himself to election” but it would surely be a formality. To have an election you would need a challenger… to Prime Minister Johnson. Doesn’t sound likely to me.
367 Phil C.I think it was abundantly clear that Margaret Beckett was a caretaker leader of the Party .
You wouldn’t have got paid out on her.
Interesting piece from The Fink on Brown’s survival chances.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2009/05/exchange-why-brown-is-safer-than-you-think-1.html
368 Funny you should mention that…..Tabman and I have an interesting way of overcoming the problem, would you like to hear about it?
373 She succeeded to the leadership for the remainder of the term, the leader being subject to annual re-election while in opposition. She was in exactly the same position as Smith was.
SKY reporting McNumpty has repaid £3k accidentally claimed. I doubt McDoom will sack him or send him to the Star Chamber, accidentally or otherwise
369 - but there are no tits and bums or Elvis lives stories on his blog either.
If he talked carp, then he wouldn’t have that level of traffic.
Sometimes he calls it wrong - so what - Anatole Kaletsky gets it wrong in 99% of his Times columns!
EDIT and that is 25kish visitors not page views.
377 See my 380.
375 - That was the great thing about the ol’ Wing Commander - it was all so amusingly transparent! Nick and Marcus dress it up in the guise of sometimes quite interesting points which spoils the fun.
359.Nadine’s blog - All’s Fair in War and Politics
373/7 - Yes, it was abundantly clear that she was, to all intents and purposes, a caretaker. However, under the terms of the Labour constitution she was technically speaking a full leader. So the bookies have the caretaker clause to avoid paying out under such circumstances.
368 - Selection processes are currently geared to produce the most loyal candidates rather than the most able, certainly in safer seats. Marginals may tend to value presentational and organisational skills more - better to get a less ideologically pure party representative elected than not have a party representative elected at all.
378 Mike Smithson.That was so interesting.DF must be my doppleganger, except if we swapped places nobody would read my articles and he would be skint !
His methodology is impeccable; inspired even, but his conclusions are so out of the money as to be bizarre.
What comes out of it all is that Brown/Cameron is a bigger price than it should be.
re 385. Having been positive about Nadine yesterday I think today’s move is totally ill-judged. You’ve got to be very careful whenever you criticise members of the armed forces and this was a serious mistake.
On the other hand, the rule seems to indicate that when in government an anointed leader would be leader “until a ballot can be carried out”, so that sounds like a caretaker leader.
(i) When the party is in government and the party leader is prime minister and the party leader, for whatever reason, becomes permanently unavailable, the cabinet shall, in consultation with the NEC, appoint one of its members to serve as party leader until a ballot under these rules can be carried out.
(From http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2008/05/the-labour-party-rule-that-allows-for-a-cabinet-coup/)
378.”Mike Smithson says:
28/5/2009 at 5:55 pm
Interesting piece from The Fink on Brown’s survival chances.2
Mike, did you see my post@42. That comment I posted back then came on the back of a link to a blog by The Fink on Comment Central. I wish he would do more politics commentary on his blog, he is wasted as a blog guide and trivia spotter.
344. Ken, you are correct, both of them were on the fiddle , knew it well and thought they would not get caught. They deserve all they get and more.
389.Mike, maybe so, but just go and look at the figures for the casualties in the last 8 months in Afghanistan. Its maybe why I didn’t have to reach for the smelling salts when I read her blog article.
385 - Why do people blog? Dale was a thrusting young PPC in a highly winnable seat before he took it up, Dorries wasn’t widely perceived as barmy, Paul Staines didn’t have that ‘king ridiculous little beard thing, Smithson had a full head of hair etc.
389. Having just read that - I think some of the stuff about her critising the army is stretching the truth. She is actually giving her Labour opponent a platform from which to say what he did in Iraq.
If Brown is forced to step down the one person you would have to feel sorry for is his wife. He will take it very hard.
395.Martin, exactly!
378 - One particular comment of Philip Collins caught my eye:
“Clearly on the slim chance that Labour comes fourth, behind UKIP, panic will set in. But if Labour comes a bad third that would be enough.”
Evidently Philip Collins thinks that the Lib Dems are the likely party to beat Labour for second place and that there is only a “slim chance” that Labour will finish behind UKIP. If he judges those two conclusions on solid information, he should be rushing to the bookies, because the odds are incredibly favourable to him. For me, it brings into question many of his other assumptions about the odds of Gordon Brown being deposed.
Mark France (one of the organizers of “Julie Must Go”) was involved with Respect until Tuesday, when he resigned:
http://www.bromsgrovestandard.co.uk/news75807.html
398 antifrank.At the end of the day these people are what I call ‘civilians’.
Fink thinks like a brilliant compiler but strangely gets it spectacularly wrong.Collins is just plain wrong.
376 No I can’t imagine anyone electable standing against Prime Minister Johnson, but how would *another* coronation go down? Wouldn’t he be better to call a GE before this happened?
Personally I think it would be reasonable for the party leader to face a contested annual election, even when in power. Might keep them on their toes. In a democracy, our political leaders should not be scared of the democratic process.
400 - Eugh an annual election in power would be a nightmare.
390. But any “challenger” would need about 44 MPs behind them, else the caretaker leader would be deemed elected leader nem. con.
“4B.2b Nomination
(i) In the case of a vacancy for leader or deputy leader, each nomination must be supported by 12.5 per cent of the Commons members of the PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party). Nominations not attaining this threshold shall be null and void.”
http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/notes/snpc-03938.pdf
re 393. Thanks for that. I’d forgotten about that post last year. Very relevant.
400. I think the Sun running a ‘call an election campaign’ independent of the Tories is a major bulwalk against a challange or change of Labour leadership.
400. “Personally I think it would be reasonable for the party leader to face a contested annual election, even when in power.”
They can face it every year - it just takes 20% of the PLP to find a candidate and Labour conference to allow a contest…
404 - I agree, plus for Brown there is the nuclear option if a leadership challenge emerges.
402 - Yes, so if Johnson was crowned leader “until a ballot can be carried out”, then the bookies wouldn’t pay out. But when they subsequently open nominations, if Johnson were the only nominee to get 44 signatures they’d have to pay out then.
Interesting Morely isn’t in front of the Star Sham(err panel, err chamber) this week. What odds can I get on Gordon wheeling out his criminals (and gibson for fun) about two days before the election. Meanwhile the Fraudsters in the cabinet will be fine.
398, 399
One obvious howler in their methodology is that they have arbitrarily assumed that the only scenario under which Brown could go is as a result of a specific result in the Euro elections. That is a simplification too far.
It’s also very dodgy to say there is a 20% chance of a posse of Cabinet minsters telling him to go - surely that would depend on how bad the result were, not on a simple 20% chance once the threshold has been passed. And if that were to happen, and there were enough senior ministers involved, there would probably be a near 100% chance of him actually going.
The alternative is to use Richard N’s ‘finger in the air’ method, which comes out at 25% (up from 20% a couple of months ago). I’m therefore not buying ‘Cameron Only’ at the current price.
400 Miliband would stand if there was a vacancy - he has bottled twice and to not go for an open leadership post-Brown would end his career and chances permanently. You can only hide under the duvet for so long.
410 - But Labour have had one terminally reticent leader…
409 - There’s an even more basic howler, which is to assume that nothing has been pre-planned. Given some of what has been in the press in the last couple of weeks, that seems a very dangerous assumption indeed.
If certain Cabinet ministers (and I might idly suggest one in ermine, one who knows his way around a special delivery, one whose relative by marriage is already accustomed to lead a political party and one who has a tangential connection to Rinka the dog) have already decided on a course of action, any result that isn’t startlingly better than currently anticipated will do.
That Politcs Home poll (23% approval rating for Brown) is very encouraging for my bet at 3/1 it will be under 30% with Yougov (first in June). Another oustanding tip, hopefully some were wise enough to follow my advice.
411 Absolutely. I think Miliband has to run though, he can’t not run next time if you see what I mean!
CoffeHouse gets in on the leadership change act…
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3652023/what-are-the-chances-of-labour-dumping-brown.thtml
311.
always good to remind people of how clueless she is
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8l7eJv8pB0
from 5 minutes onwards is just jaw dropping
Maybe one of the problems with British politics is that a lot of the mp’s are not local to the areas they represent. Alan Johnson represents Hull, David Milliband somewhere in the North east. and Nick Clegg somewhere in Sheffield. I think this is one of the reasons there is a disconnect between voters and Mp’s.
They may represent the voters very well but they have no feel for the area.
In future all parties will pick more local people to stand for election.
412 antifrank
Yes, good point. There has been a suspicious unanimity amongst journalists close to Labour, AJ has clearly been on manoeuvres, and She Who Means No has been suspiciously well-behaved.
However, Profli-Gate must be highly disruptive to any well-laid plans, and the old dog won’t let go of his bone without fighting back.
Kirkbride really has been hounded. It’s not so much she didn’t deserve it, but that she got singled out.
I agree with those that the Tories will take a hit in the next poll. The tax dodging Labour hypocrites have just managed to slink under the radar through sheer luck and sleaziness.
412 antiFrank: Surely worthy of an oblique comment of the thread prize - Nice one.
New thread and Marf cartoon
418 - Indeed, and your finger in the air estimate of 25% feels about right to me.
415.James, Brown is going, and soon. Its just a matter of the timing and manner of his departure now, just as it was with Blair after the failed coup in the Autumn of 2006. His authority as PM final came to a complete end last week when he caved into the girls and backed off from Blears. Now, its all about the under the radar back room deals amongst the Cabinet. Who will replace him, and how are they going to let him go. He will be offered the same choice as Michael Martin - pick a windae, yer leavin.
394 - grow up.
THE RAGE
The parliamentary ruling mob
Have all enjoyed a cushy job
The taxes paid by you and me
Helped these scoundrels live for free
They tried to stop us finding out
What their expenses were about
Somehow they think that we are fools
By claiming, “It’s within the rules”
Such claims alas just will not wash,
They’ve lived like royals on our dosh
It’s not the dosh that we want back,
We want them ALL to get the sack
That’s not all, for we want more,
We want them in a court of law
Some of them it seems are frauds,
Both in the Commons and the Lords
Flipping homes to dodge the tax
Has got up the electorates backs
Porno films and cleaning moats
Is really sticking in our throats
Don’t think because they haven’t claimed
They’re innocent and can’t be blamed
Not speaking out what some were getting
Is simply aiding and abetting
Their secrets out they’ve lost control
We want them jailed or on the dole
Parliament’s no sacred cow.
BRING ON THE ELECTION NOW !!