Vote Green to stop the BNP?
May 23rd, 2009Has Ben Tallis made a huge mistake?
The above video I found courtesy of a friend who directed me to http://www.stopnickgriffin.org - it’s message is clear: Vote Green as the best chance to stop Nick Griffin from being elected. Clearly, this was a compelling argument for at least one person, as Ben Tallis (top of the list for Libertas in the North West) has announced that he is endorsing the Green Party in his region.
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I think this argument is completely wrong-headed. The results from 2004 had the parties in the following order: Labour (27.4%), Conservative (24.2%), Lib Dem (15.9%), UKIP (11.7%), BNP (6.4%), Green (5.6%) followed by others (8.8%). For the Green Party to deprive the BNP of the 8th North West seat would likely mean beating the Green Party into 5th place in the region, which I do not think to be likely.
There are only a certain number of plausible permutations of vote that will prevent the BNP from winning a seat, assuming they can keep their 5th place in the North West. A seat breakdown of 3-2-2-1, 2-2-2-2, or perhaps 3-3-1-1 would stop the BNP from getting a seat - this means that either both Labour and the Conservatives need to win 3/8 seats, or the Lib Dems need keep their two seats. Both scenarios mean that the BNP must be kept out of fourth place by UKIP, who need to win at least one seat if not two.
For both Labour and the Conservatives to win three seats apiece requires neither of them to fall short of their 2004 results, which I think is highly unlikely in current climate, so the 3-3-1-1 option is the most difficult to engineer. If anti-BNP voters want this, they should probably vote Labour, but I doubt it would actually happen. Similarly, for a 2-2-2-2 split UKIP in 4th would need to get double the share of the BNP in 5th - again, this could be something of a stretch, but anti-BNP voters should therefore support UKIP.
The most likely scenario in which the BNP are deprived of a seat is in the 3-2-2-1 scenario, which means the Lib Dems retaining 2 seats. This means that the Lib Dems would need to get more than twice the vote share of fifth placed BNP. This is possible, given that they were well over twice the BNP vote last time.
What would a vote for the Greens achieve in the North West? Well unlike Libertas, Jury Team, or NO2EU, the Greens are not an anti-politics force who are likely to divert dissatisfied voters away from the BNP. Whereas those parties as a ‘protest vote’ could draw votes from not-yet-BNP voters, the Greens I would expect to draw votes from left leaning voters who would otherwise support Labour or the Lib Dems. Unless they could overtake the BNP for 5th place, a vote for the Greens actually works against the permutations that would prevent Nick Griffin from becoming an MEP.
So could the Greens overtake the BNP in the North West? I think not. I suspect their USP was somewhat damaged by the eagerness of David Cameron to embrace the environmental agenda early in his leadership - which forced the other parties to burnish their green credentials too. Also, whilst environmentalism might seem like an attractive policy in happier economic times, I suspect that the action demanded by econological groups might be less appealing to people in harder times.
I don’t think the BNP are certain to get Nick Griffin elected by any means - maybe a little shorter than evens - but anyone who thinks that voting Green is the best strategy to stop him is (IMNSHO) psephologically deluded.
FROM ROBERT:
Sorry about the problems, a firewall has malfunctioned at 1and1 (our hosting company) and has been denying all access to the site. They are working to solve the problem, but there may still be some issues this evening.
Morus
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First possibly?
FPT
389 Richard Tyndall.
I am a Unionist and a Eurosceptic. I am not in favour of Scottish Independence per se although Northern Irelnd would be a different issue. I favour the Union for geographical security reasons (we are an island and don’t need the overhead of land borders and the overheads it accrues). I do however believe in self-determination along traditional national lines. So if the Scots, English or Welsh wish it so be it. However, I still think it would not be the right thing to do.
Consequently, as we are seperate island and are not joined to the rest of Europe, there is no contradiction in my views on Europe and the Union.
Mackay gone - Cameron still pursuing the ‘dangerous’ policy of taking action and getting noticed whilst Gordon hides under the table hoping Hazel and Caroline can’t hear him breathing.
This video just shows how stupid the political system is. Some toerag like Nick Griffin can get a seat despite the fact that he can’t even get the bulk of people in any particular area to endorse him.
Some muppet on Question Time argued that the fact in MPs in safe seats ripped off the taxpayer more was an argument for PR. How the hell do you work that out? Two Tories, two Labourites and a Lib Dem here clearly are in no danger of losing their seat, thus the real contest here becomes who is 6th, 7th and 8th most popular. Barmy system, barmy institution.
*** BETTINGPOST ***Sorry to go off thread early but I got caught at the end of the last one, reproduced below:
Next Speaker market.
Anne Widdecombe last matched at 8.0 on Betfair, only to £2-4 though. She is available at 22/1 with vcbet.
Bercow drifted sharply on Betfair to 7.0 as those who had backed him at 8/1 offloaded when the Telegraph featured his expenses. He has been backed into 4.0 and there is £238 waiting to back him at 4.5.
I can’t be bothered to read the details of all these expenses claims. Can anyone tell me, do Bercow’s expenses pass the smell test for a potential Speaker? I’m not asking whether we agree with his claims but rather, whether it seriously compromises his chances in this race?
Obviously we differ jsfl and that is no bad thing. My objections to teh EU are both practical and philosophical and it is the philosophical aspect thaht leads me to support the contention on the previous thread that one cannot really be both anti EU and anti nationalist at the same time.
Now I know many people would disagree with me ther but I have spent many hours arguing this with both pro and anti EU people and with nationalists of various persuasions from north and south of the border and I have not yet heard a really convincing argument that would allow me to admit that there is aa logical consistency in being anti centralisation when it comes to Brussels but pro centralisation when it comes to London.
Now a part of me would be sory to see Scotland break away as I think we do compliment each other in some ways but I would hope that the old adage of ‘you can choose your friends but not your family’ might come into force and we would actual strengthen ties in ways that matter if Scotland were politically independent. The same applies with Britain and the countries in the EU.
Obviously we differ jsfl and that is no bad thing. My objections to the EU are both practical and philosophical and it is the philosophical aspect that leads me to support the contention on the previous thread that one cannot really be both anti EU and anti nationalist at the same time.
Now I know many people would disagree with me there but I have spent many hours arguing this with both pro and anti EU people and with nationalists of various persuasions from north and south of the border and I have not yet heard a really convincing argument that would allow me to admit that there is a logical consistency in being anti centralisation when it comes to Brussels but pro centralisation when it comes to London.
Now a part of me would be sorry to see Scotland break away as I think we do compliment each other in some ways but I would hope that the old adage of ‘you can choose your friends but not your family’ might come into force and we would actual strengthen ties in ways that matter if Scotland were politically independent. The same applies with Britain and the countries in the EU.
5. They are all technically within the rules. However, he has now promised to pay £6,500 in CGT.
FPT. ChristinaD says:
23/5/2009 at 4:49 pm
389.”Richard Tyndall says:
23/5/2009 at 4:37 pm
346
Which is why corporeal you will find lots of BOO supporters like me and UKIPers as well, who are also in favour of Scottish independence.”
Must admit that I was surprised that Corporeal thought otherwise, its been pretty obvious that if you want to dump the EU, you tend to want to dump Scotland as well….
On the other hand, that is the biggest problem I have with the SNP’s stance on independence. Why would a big fish jump out of a wee pond, only to become the equivalent of small fry in a wine lake?
Damn, double posted. Sorry about that. It really is only woirth reading once at most.
4 Socrates
However barmy the system, the video itself is wonderful even if its argument is wrong.
A completely straightforward explanation of the voting system, and (what seems like, although Morus disagrees) a very honest appraisal of the Green Party’s chances. A rather refreshing (if disingenuous) PPB.
According to ICM the Greens are polling 9%. Although, it must be said, the ICM figures are barmy (1% BNP?).
And the Greens have the advantage of being on the early part of the ballot paper. According to Nick Palmer MP on the previous thread, there could well be an ‘alphabetical boost’.
5. stjohn.
Re Bercow. He has already committed to paying £6k Captial Gains Tax. Combine that with 6 years max ACA, in my opinion no he doesn’t pass the smell test…….
7. I see no inconsistency at all between being Unionist and eurosceptic. I would do if England and Scotland were separate independent states, and someone were proposing a merger, but my identity is British more than it is English.
Bercow must be tainted now surely. IMHO Frank Field should get it, but his own Party wont be too keen on that.
I think there’s a reasonable chance of the Greens overtaking the BNP in the North West given the current polls. I don’t buy at all that the Greens are seen as part of the political mainstream of the big two parties. If I were an elector in the North West of England, I’d be encouraging everyone to vote Green.
14 - I’m warming to the idea of Rifkind. Very authoritative.
Fraser Nelson at the Coffee House Blog - Andrew MacKay to step down
“Only this morning, Andrew MacKay said that he would stand for election again - but after a conversation with David Cameron he has now decided to stand down at the next election. The open meeting he held had several calls for him to go, and there was talk of a petition. The grassroots momentum was significant. This, make no mistake, is a personal loss to David Cameron who relied on MacKay to be his eyes and ears in the backbenches.
That Cameron has been prepared to say goodbye to Mackay shows that he’s prepared to lose people who matter to him - as well as those, like Douglas Hogg, who don’t. Mackay, let’s not forget, was rumbled not by the Daily Telegraph but by the Tories’ own internal proceedings. They have plenty more MPs to get through, so I very much doubt that Mackay will be the last Tory to walk the plank.
It is often asked which party has suffered most due to all this, and I suspect the party that emerges best will be the one that deals with the problem most decisively. So far, Cameron’s swift action puts him ahead in this increasingly important regard.”
Well as BNP have today collapsed to only 1% in the polls, its a moot point.
13
Yours may be Sean but for many Scots that is not the case and I find it difficult to argue that we should be fighting for freeing ourselves from Brussels whilst saying that equally committed people should be denied that same right when it come sto their freedom from London.
I use the evocative terms only because I am too lazy to phrase myself more cautiously and am not implying a blood and guts struggle.
8. Sean. Thanks. Two further questions:
1. That sounds similar to Hazel Blears position and she’s in a lot of hot water. So is Bercow seriously handicapped by Expensesgate or not?
2. As a Tory, you have expressed your dislike for Bercow. I get the impression this feeling is widespread amongst Tory activists. Is this the case and is that dislike widely shared by Tory MPs?
11 - The polling is nonsense. The Greens won’t get 9% any more than the BNP will get 1%.
I agree the video is very good, but it is categorically misleading.
It implies that the battle for 4th is between the BNP and the Green Party, with UKIP (the purple block) likely to come 6th. As we can see from the previous results/the polls - in the North West, the UKIP are almost certain to come 4th (as likely to be 3rd as 5th anyway) with the Greens likely to lose out to the BNP in the race for 5th place.
For that reason, I find it disingenuous - voting UKIP or Lib Dem keeps out the BNP, voting Green arguably helps Griffin’s effort.
16.James, I must admit that I was struggling to think of someone on the backbenches who ticked all my boxes for Speaker, that was until someone mentioned Rifkind. Now I am as sick as a parrot, I am a very occasional toe dipper in political betting, and I not only missed the 40/1, but was too late for even 20/1. Now stuck on 16/1!
15 - £100 says the BNP outpoll the Greens in the North West region on June 4th. You accept?
I suspect the BNP vote is actually made more robust by corrupt and mendacious politicians telling them how nasty they are for voting BNP.
There was an amusing article the other day in the Labourgaph about BNP canvassing, to the effect that it was hopelessly inept. If that article was accurate, then it’s not the BNP’s message that winning it votes. It’s the behaviour of the other parties, including the bit where they smear BNP supporters as morons.
In a previous sales
22. ChristinaD. Rifkind is available at 20/1 with Ladbrokes.
22 - If I was in employment I would be starting to dip my toe in betting. However I’m not so I can’t afford to lose money.
A great theme for a thread,Morus, and I will definitely be voting with a view to hurt the BNP unless it involves voting for the Lib Dems !
FPT.Not exactly an apology from me but more of an explanation.
The combination of the word ‘Liberal’ and the date ‘1936′, or thereabouts, triggers off something in my brain and I go off into one.
Think of it as a kind of spam filter in reverse.
20. Much as I dislike Bercow, I do think his reason for “flipping” was a legitimate one.
WRT Conservative activists, I think that dislike for John Bercow is almost universal. It’s not so much that he’s shifted from Right to Left as that he has gone out of his way to damage successive Conservative leaders in difficult times, and he is sycophantic towards the current government.
I don’t know about MPs, although I imagine that many would regard him as a trouble maker.
25.Thanks stjohn, I went with betfair. Does anyone else have problems with their site, which ends up with a phone call having to be made instead?
4 - So-crates. This system of list PR is daft. STV is not. There are no safe seats at all under STV.
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/article.php?id=103
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D31PTNAd588
9. My view of UKIPers as pro-union was formed on a completely unrepresentative sample of those I’d met.
Also forgive my ignorance but BOO?
26.James, the serious punters on here would be embarrassed at my little bets.
Got all my fingers crossed that your situation, and that of Martin’s changes soon.
Was going to add to my 24 that ina previous sales career I was lways told never to waste face time with customers slagging off the competition. If they’re supplied by the competition, you are insulting them, and you should anyway use selling time to sell your own wares rather than slag off someone else’s.
The parties don’t seem to get this re the BNP. IMHO the way to deal with them is to quietly address the underlying issues their rising support reflects
32 - Didn’t anyone tell you that size isn’t everything!
@28: That chimes with me. I’m well on the socially liberal end of the Conservative spectrum, and am broadly supportive of Bercow’s voting record. He just doesn’t seem to be able to get the balance of persuasion v. personal grandstanding right.
23. Accept it. BNP are bankrupt with their leadership running around onbe step ahead of high counrt bailliffs , and their vote is collapsing around their ears.They have been thoroughly exposed as a nazi party, and their vote is going south at an alarming rate
Until last week i had them on 3.5%- more like 2.5% now
4. The logic goes is that it weakens the position of individual candidates to be selected. So in PR HQ would be more likely to sack/remove a distasteful candidate, or that they’d be removed in the closed primary stage where the list gets decided.
21 If the Ad works and disenchanted Labour or Lib Dem leaning voters decide “stopping the BNP” is the key action then it could well result in Labour & Lib Dems losing sufficient votes to take Green vote towards UKIP levels. With Tory votes (and others) splitting mostly to UKIP (some to Greens), Labour & Lib Dems to Greens (and some to UKIP) quite possible it will be Conservative, Labour, UKIP, Lib Dem, Green then BNP (we don’t believe the polls but they are showing UKIP & in some the Greens as main beneficiaries of protest not BNP).
You seem to assume the Ad is telling the truth about stopping BNP and not, like me, thinking they are using the paper tiger just to ramp up Green votes.
30 Socrates
We’re just dust in the wind, dude.
31 - Better Off Out. Non party campaign to promote withdrawal.
35 - Indeed I am a social liberal and welcome his conversion from other ideas. I just find him the sort of person who makes you warm to characters like Uriah Heap.
6. Richard.
I think we only differ by degree. In defence of the Union the issue I would give an example is say that Scotland was independent but part of an integrated EU and what is left of Britain has withdrawn.
What happens if terrorists say are entering England via Scotland and for whatever reason Scotland backed by the EU are not co-operating. What then.
Strategically, from a security perspective it is much easier securing our borders if we do not have internal land borders.
Then there is the actual complexities of unravelling Scotland from the Union (a logistical nightmare IMO). Even when all the haggling (oil, armed forces and so forth) have been resolved has anyone really considered the cost of doing so let alone the nationality and employment status considerations. It won’t be cheap and the social implications could be quite significant and to be honest for what it will gain for either side I just don’t think it is worth it to give up the level of security this island provides us. It’s much easier and better in my view to move towards a fully federalised UK with more powers being devolved to each of the Home Nations.
That said I believe in self-determination and therefore if people vote to leave the Union so be it.
22 ChristinaD
Isn’t Rifkind in trouble for troughing? Even if it is relatively minor.
If I recall correctly he claimed for travel to/from Scotland when his constituency is outer London.
Nevertheless I agree he would (ordinarily) be a fantastic speaker.
On Bercow, the fact he is repaying CGT makes him guilty in the court of public opinion. Labour might still tribally elect him - but hopefully in their heart of hearts they know that only someone pure, and someone on the right side of every transparency votes, will do.
I doubt Frank Field can muster the Labour support. It will be a compromise candidate. Beith seems clean but has been made out to be a double dipper. Not sure if that will count against him.
Ann Widdecombe is a saint personally but I don’t think an interim speaker would be suitable. And also, she has been on the wrong side of the transparency votes.
Tony Wright would be very good but he is Labour. The cleanest top Tory candidate at the moment, in the light of expenses revealed so far, is Richard Shepherd.
But I am not betting on this at all. I got burned with Ming Campbell and his stupid refurbishment of his flat and Question Time performance, although it appears to be possible to lay him on Betfair to cut losses. And all the experienced bettors here are saying it is a very foolish market to bet in.
35 In other words, it’s not the colour of his politics but the size of his head.
Yep.
28.”and he is sycophantic towards the current government.”
Sean, isn’t Bercow’s involvement with the government a little bit more complicated than that? IIRC, he has personal reasons for working with the government on Special needs provision?
34. James
28: ‘WRT Conservative activists, I think that dislike for John Bercow is almost universal.’
Although Nick Palmer has been critical of the stick Bercow receives from his own side, I can see the activists’ point. What would your average Labour member think of a Labour MP who sent Mrs Thatcher a letter saying how wonderful he thought she was and that she was a credit to the nation (as Bercow did to Blair)?
11, yes but suitable for when I was 13 and studying geography. 0/10 for changing minds.
and if I were thinking of voting BNP, I wouldn’t consider vegetarian sandal wearing or free trade coffee a priority.
43.”If I recall correctly he claimed for travel to/from Scotland when his constituency is outer London.”
wibbler, I have a vague recollection that he has pretty sound reasons which were flagged up during his leadership challenge.
30. The argument works in theory but not in practice. In a field of 15 or so politicians, perhaps 5% of voters will be able to distinguish between the four Labour options. Name recognition will trump all in terms of the placing of people in the same party.
The more places you have, the more candidates you have for the electorate to remember, and the less each one gets closely examined. One of the best things about the US two party system is that once the primaries are over, you have two candidates who get examined very closely, whether its for the House or the Presidency.
43. Wibbler.
I don’t think it’s been clarified but I think Rifkind’s travel claims from Edinburgh were for his wife to attend official functions.
And that would be legitimate.
@44: Bang on.
The Far Right have won seats at all levels in many European countries but the last time I looked none of these had collapsed into chaos - with the possible exception of Italy but then government there has always been rather haphazard and the chaos is a normal part of public life and not a consequence of the far right winning seats. Quite often I think that for many young people an affiliation to the far right can also be a statement about not wanting to be seen as. “respectable” (i.e long-haired, studious and always thinking and doing nice correct things). This rather zany attempt to gather votes for the Greens might indicate that after the heyday of Livingstoneism the dictators of the Green Reich millenia are afraid that they are losing the argument.
Don’t know if anyone has linked this article on Ian McCartney stepping down.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5373428/Labour-MP-Ian-McCartney-to-stand-down.html
This is a guy who is 58 years old, in bad health, been hospitalised for heart surgery. He paid £15,000 back in expenses last year, perhaps because he saw FoI issue, but nonetheless paid it back without pressure or exposure. He does consultancy work but all income goes to a researcher’s pay and a charity so while he might be over-weight he isn’t a trougher.
Why then do the Telegraph put “health reasons” in quotes inferring something else?
38 - Exactly - I also think that it is more about garnering support for the Greens than actually stopping the BNP, but that’s the point of the post - it is disingenuous to the point of being rampantly misleading. The only way it has any credibility is if there’s a chance of the Greens outpolling the BNP in the North West. I’m offering £100 at evens against this outcome - first come, first served.
36 - This isn’t exactly a cheerleading post for BNP success - if you read my article last week( http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/05/16/is-the-bnp-rise-overstated/ ) you’d see that I think the BNP rise is overstated - however, the idea that they will get less than last time seems less plausible. They got 4.9 nationally, and I think this could rise a little to 7-8%.
You are also welcome to take my bet - I’m offering £100 that the BNP beat the Greens to fifth place in the North West, even odds. If you think their vote is collapsing, you should partake.
MacKay to go at next election - Beeb.
Wife next !! …. Hopefully
Rifkind would make a frickin’ brilliant Speaker. That’s all I have to say
54 You’re late JackW
We wipper snappers got there before you!
I’m pretty much on the opposite end of the Tory spectrum as Sean Fear, but he is correct about the reasons for Bercow’s unpopularity across the party.
55 Suspect MacKay struck a deal with Cameron - I’ll go if the wife can stay on.
53
Whilst politically I can’t stand McCartney I think you are bang on here Ted.
The Telegraph clearly suffer from SeanT’s syndrome which is that every single MP no matter how honest must be considered corrupt and subjected to the inquisition to prove their purity.
I look forward with trepidation to the hot iron bar test. It would be about as valid as some of what we are seeing now from the Telegraph.
53.Ted, wasn’t he the last MP to be literally wheeled into the HoC’s from hospital for a very close vote?
56 Raven. You are Mr Nuala and I claim your missus for a night of pashionate rumpy pumpy !! …. OK not a night but for a few minutes ….
Jack W is 106.
Bercow defied the whip to vote against the retention of section 28.
Cameron bottled it
62.JackW, is 106, but he is still a very cheeky boy.
59 I doubt Cameron would make himself such a hostage to fortune. It should be clear to Mackay that the longer he stays on, the more attention his wife gets.
57 SallyC. Apols …. I’ve just had my five o’clock nap !!
Pleased to see MacKay is toast. Though after last nights events, I doubt there was much debate about the matter….
66. No worries old timer. Judging by your comments @62, you will soon need another one!
64 ChristinaD. Are you a cheeky girl …. woof woof !!
http://www.moneymad.org/Previous/Lembit_Opik_Cheeky_Girl_Gabriela_Irimia.jpg
63 So what?
One thing that seems to have been lost in the Mackay saga, Fraser apart, is that he was downed and outed from within.
to a certain extent I’m disappointed to see so many MPs ’stand down at the next election’. While the fact they get a lot of ‘redundancy’ money does grate a little. I wanted to see their faces when they were defeated by the electorate at 2am on a friday morning in may/june next year.
72 - actually, they get the same money whether they stand down or kicked out at an election. The only way they don’t get the money is by standing down in the middle of a Parliament.
63 Tim being a lying tw*t again. Cameron wasn’t even party leader when the section 28 repeal vote happened.
Crawl back under your rock worm.
72. Don’t worry spud. The way Brown is dragging his feet there are plenty that will still be there for their ritual defenestration by the voters.
Who knows Brown could be the shock of the night! After all is any majority safe now?
68 Are SallyC and ChristinaD the Cheeky Girls …. Woof woof baby !!
http://media.entertainment.sky.com/image/unscaled/2006/3/7/Cheeky-Girls-Get-Cheekier-1386205.jpg
“I see no inconsistency at all between being Unionist and eurosceptic.”
Same. Though it does make me understand the desire for independence. I’d like an independent UK but a federal one as a compromise on that - don’t understand Scots / Welsh Nats thinking they’d be more independent in the EUSSR once the walls are fully built and the bars come crashing down like the childcatcher’s wagon.
73: I do realise this. I am still disappointed that we wont get to see some of these MPs lose their seats at the next election like hamilton/mellor in 1997. I’ll just have to enjoy watching Jacqui Smith lose her seat.
72 - “I wanted to see their faces when they were defeated by the electorate at 2am on a friday morning in may/june next year.”
As if the parties will risk losing (often) safe seats just for that.
Seems like the Tories are in lance boiling mode right now - may mean a short term drop in popularity but not storing up nearly so much trouble as Brown keeping on Blears
28. Sean. Thanks for that. Very helpful, as usual.
69.
JackW, now don’t reach for nurse, but I like Lempit, he really does add some colour to the Libdems. 
71.SallyC, that is why I put up the whole of Fraser’s article on here. It seems to have got lost in all the smoke blown up on here last night.
76 Yes Jack. Christina is the one in the red and black [it's the colour of her favourite Tartan and that corset was warmer - essential for her journey back on the train].
Now take a double dose of your meds before you keel over.
78 - ahh, I get you. Smith losing will be fantastic. I’m also looking forward to - hopefully - some real turds going as the result of epic swings. Sion Simon would be a fine choice.
76. JackW, has outed me before I could do it myself @81!
81. That view holds increasingly less currency in Montgomeryshire. If Lembit is the candidate do not be surprised to see “Recount in Montgomeryshire” flash up on the news on election night.
83: the best ever political moment was the point during the early hours of the friday morning in 1997 when Portillo lost his seat. I was hoping for more opportunities to laugh like I did then.
Sion would be the icing on the cake, Balls the cherry and Bryant, the sprinkles!
86 Let’s see if the defeated show any where near as much dignity
61 Not sure - feeling there was someone else but he hasn’t been too healthy for nearly three years, no surprise he’s standing down. Could be that felling of certainty of Labour losing or the current disruption and poor morale from Scamalot might have tipped the balance.
He’s not an MP I had much time for politically and his personality grated but why tar him with same brush as Mackay?
ITN news at 5.35 realy hostile against the Tories MP`S expenses.
Even complaining about some gates, for the Shadow business minister, which are needed for security.
No balance with other parties expenses.
Is the Conservative/ Cameron supporting Bradby having a well earned Bank Holiday break.
87 - oh don’t be a tease! That would make my year.
Sean Fear says: at 5:05 pm “20. Much as I dislike Bercow, I do think his reason for “flipping” was a legitimate one.”
Sean what has always puzzled me is why his Association has put up with him. It is large and strong but seems not to notice what its MP gets up to.
88: True…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdKexAVIUY4
85.Punter, I have been following his situation there, its for them to judge the abilities of their MP. I am just a political anorak who enjoys the colour he brings to Parliament.
89.Ted, I agree with you, must admit that I was struck by the fact that he had paid the money back so long ago. It marked him out against so many others.
I think he was still in hospital after an operation when this vote was being held, it might be the one where Brown was called back to the UK from a Foreign trip where he didn’t even get out of the airport.
86 At the time, I was upset about that - but I took great delight from the ousting of the Mellorphant Man.
82/84 Sally/Christina. Swoon …. crash !!
92 It puzzles me too. I’m told the reason is that he is very hard working in the constituency.
92.”Sean what has always puzzled me is why his Association has put up with him. It is large and strong but seems not to notice what its MP gets up to.”
TC, maybe they do realise what he gets up to, and that is why he holds that majority? IIRC, its one of the biggest?
Perhaps this might shed some light on what’s going on with the ‘Daily Poison’:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/media/article591625.ece
95 its bad to admit it as a Tory but seeing Mellor go down was fun. Think many Tories enjoyed it nearly as much as Labour loved Portillo moment.
98 - Seventh largest majority (by votes) in the UK at 18,129
Tom Clarke, John Cummings, Dennis Skinner, Gordon Brown and Ian McCartney (all Lab) have larger majorities - as did Blair earlier this Parliament. Gerry Adams also has a larger majority.
Bercow has the largest absolute majority of any Conservative.
74 Richard don`t think he mentioned Cameron being leader.
Was Cameron an MP at the time ?
If he was which way did he vote ?
Deerstalker tip to Mrs Dale’s Dairy …. Much
You may need to scroll down slightly.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_z5hT1P0X79c/ShgpUHbmsEI/AAAAAAAAEwI/E9Pv_KBgFTw/s1600-h/That%27s+life.JPG
88 - going from how Dunwoody Jr. behaved in C&N, I think we might be in for a night of foot-stamping and sulking if Labour do get the boot.
95: ‘but I took great delight from the ousting of the Mellorphant Man.’
I’ve always thought that Mellor achieved the greatest self-reinvention in political history. Compare what everyone thought of him when he was ousted to how he’s viewed now - one of the lads and the passionate and articulate spokesman for your average footie fan.
100 I was standing next to David Mellor at the 1997 party conference, and a friend offered me £100 to chuck my coffee over him. I think I should have taken up the offer, but my courage failed me.
101. Care to predict the order of the Parties in Wales for the Euros?
BTW Will Nichols have to wait until Cotmac is over 80 before he gets a red hat.
This also provides a later update. Max Hastings on Comment is Free:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2007/jan/30/comment.politics
As you can imagine, the viral was developed before the UKIP surge and the expense scandal. YouGov’s “North” voting intention for the Euros has the Greens and BNP level on 8% each. The sample size is 550. http://www.yougov.co.uk/archives/pdf/DT-results-MAY.pdf, while ComRes has the Greens ahead of UKIP in the North.
The Greens are backed by Respect in this region and the Sikh Federation are also advocating a vote for us. If Labour and Lib Dem voters are switching to the Greens, then I think the expense scandal is a far greater motivating factor. I’d far rather left of centre voters come out to support us than stay at home.
102 Dez. The vote was in March 2003 and Cameron was absent for the vote :
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=2003-03-10&number=109&display=allvotes
100 In 92 I never really understood why some Conservatives were jumping for joy when Chris Patten got beat.
Surely wasn`t just Europe.
As he was very effective in really hammering Labour.
105 - “Compare what everyone thought of him when he was ousted to how he’s viewed now - one of the lads and the passionate and articulate spokesman for your average footie fan.”
Most football fans I know can’t stand him - they think he’s a bandwagon jumper Not to mention an odious slimeball
One t-shirt about 10 years ago was emblazoned with “Kick Mellor Out of Football”, a play on an anti-racism slogan
109 Jackw.
Thanks
74: Tim didn’t say Cameron was leader, he merely accused him of following the party line against his better judgement. and Sean Fear: ‘So what?’ don’t be so rude! - I think it’s relevant to building up a picture of this Bercow chap
110: ‘I never really understood why some Conservatives were jumping for joy when Chris Patten got beat.’
An interesting political counterfactual: had Patten held his seat Major would almost definitely have made him Chancellor instead of Lamont. How then would the whole Black Wednesday thing have panned out…
111: ‘Most football fans I know can’t stand him - they think he’s a bandwagon jumper Not to mention an odious slimeball’
Fair enough!
101.”Bercow has the largest absolute majority of any Conservative.”
Thanks Morus, I thought that was the case.
110.”Dez says:
23/5/2009 at 6:03 pm
100 In 92 I never really understood why some Conservatives were jumping for joy when Chris Patten got beat.”
I certainly wasn’t, his views on Europe aside, I thought they were an ungrateful bunch of sods to be honest. He should have been in his own backyard fighting for his own seat, instead he was elsewhere fighting for his party.
107 - Labour, Conservative, Plaid, then another tough fight for fourth between Lib Dems and UKIP.
Cardinal Nichols - not until Cormac is 80 I don’t think.
114: the same way
Hmmmmm.
Tim crawls out from under a rock, gets rightly slapped down, disappears then Dez appears.. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm…
110 Patten always came across as smug and rather dismissive of internal opponents intellectual capacity - he was in some ways Major’s Peter Mandelson, not particularly liked in the party but recognised as effective. His self confidence and arrogant belief in himself though probably paid dividends for Hong Kong in the medium, long term.
111 Even as a Labour-leaning West Ham fan,I found David Mellor ‘bloke-ish’ ( a la Ken Clarke),and an ‘ordianry enough sort of guy’-I never felt hatred towards him
118: ‘the same way’
Maybe. But I suspect that Patten, a more likable and nimbler politician than Lamont, could have limited the damage.
113,
It is suprising for Sean Fear to say “so what”
As you say it is very relevant.
For a picture of Bercow and Cameron.
90 You are right the natural bias against the Tories in the media has really come to the fore and consequently really criminal Labour politicians and Equally corrupt Lib Dems are getting off scot free.
I confess now to slight guilt at cheering when Chris Patten was unseated in 1992-it gave me a (very brief )hope if replicated in other West Country seats John Major might not quite have achieved an overall majority.
ICM Telegraph poll due tonight - I’m now seriously worried about the recent slide and hope it doesnt go to low for us - I expect:
Con 34
Labour 28
Lib 23
120. The Thatcherites didn’t get on with Patten at all, I think - remember he’d been a leading Heathite as head of the CRD in the ’70s.
117 I think it could be very tight amongst the top 3. Do you give any credence to the thought that Labour might not top the Poll. As the BBC Reporter was saying Labour canvassers are meeting plenty of engagement just not the sort they’re looking for. That applies even in areas that you wouldn’t usually think would qualify.
Re Nichols yes thought so. Not more than 1 vote at a time in the Conclave then.
90.
I’ve noticed that all of the media appears to hav turned on us in the last couple of days even the Sun are saying Brown has a big plan to clinch power - its worrying where has it all gone wrong over the last 48hours - we look doomed
109 Like Public Whips version of first name on that list “Earl of Michael Ancram”
116 Agreed Christinad, I really admired him as I did Hesltine.
But Europ apart , Chris Patten in my opinion hammered Labour and he never got the recognition he deserved in that campaign.
105. David Mellow one of the lads? You’re having a laugh. No self-respecting football fan would change their football clubs - and certainly not to your original team’s greatest rival.
132
Spot on, I never forgave him for that, it spoke volumes about the man. I left Putney shortly after the 79 election, dont think I could have canvassed for him in 83.
129: ‘…where has it all gone wrong over the last 48hours - we look doomed’
Wayne, are you for real or are you indulging in some sort of trolling exercise?
121 - I had the misfortune to meet him at one of those post-97 Football Fan Forum type things he did with Tony Banks.
He was a good laugh in the beginning with the toe-sucking incident, and for a while did use his QC experience, but his personality ended up shining through. Certainly not nearly as likeable blokish as Ken Clarke.
131 The campaign (both actual and the ‘near-term’ campaign from January 92 onwards) that so mis-represented the Labour case it should have been investigated by the Trading Standards Council-still,they say about ‘ill-gotton gains’- ie today I am sure there are a good few Tories who secretly wish Neil Kinnock had won in 92 and taken the fall for what may well have happened to him between 92 and 97
124 Voreas,
That ITN news was totally against the Conservative.
The Conservative spokesman should be on the phone giving them the hair drying treatment for lack of balance.
Bradby must be off duty as in my opinion he usually the exact opposite.
136 Patrick, from Jan to Apr 92 Labour took one hell of a beating.
A bit like that Norwegian commentator on our world cup qualifer defeat.
Afternoon all and glad to see Andrew Mackay has gone. What an embarrasment and is that a wig or just really bad hair! Sadly I think his wife Julie Kirkbride will have to fall on her sword too. Petition against her at 3000 signatures now.
53 Ian McCartney has had a somewhat torrid time in recent years. Not only did he need heart surgery (hardly surprising given his upbringing and excessive weight) but from memory his eldest son died a couple of years ago in Glasgow from a heroin overdose. If only Labour cabinet ministers had as much “balls” to follow his example.
As for Mr/Madam Speaker, isn’t it always a long-standing and senior backbencher? Why would Rifkind, ex Foreign Secretary want to be Speaker? He has no risk of losing his seat and is guaranteed his Peerage anyway. If he becomes speaker he will lose both his ability to show off those exceptional debating skills and his ability to act as a mentor to David Cameron once he is in No 10.
I suspect Frank Field would gather a massive support from the Tory benches and he has the gravitas and respect across the House to perform the role. A maverick is exactly what is needed.
134.
I’m just on reality street ! The media are on our backs big time !!
Okay, okay. From the comments about David Mellor I accept that maybe his self-reinvention wasn’t as complete or successful as I’d first assumed. But his Talk Sport spot did have a following and I remember some leftist comedian a few years back bemoaning the fact that Mellor was seen as a ‘good bloke’ when he was ‘on the board of an arms exporting company’ (or whatever it was).
129 Now that is overeacting, but it shows Labour are still first class at spin, Brown I believe leaked these disks as he rightly saw it as the perfect distraction from his leadership worries and as a way to distract from the mess he has made of the country and at the same time shine a light on Tory MPs with the help of his friends in the media.
It is a plan that is working a treat. Brown has not actually done anything about the expenses at all and yet the media spin it as equality of action between the Tories and Labour.
With Mackay gone Cameron needs to ramp up about Smith, Blears, Purnell, Hoon and Darling as well as asking why Morley and Chaytor haven’t been forced to stand down.
Bush apparently writing a book about decisions he made in office.
143. The former Bush administration just can’t resist keeping their mouths shut for their own party’s sake.
Brilliant.
142.
yeh but he won’t
144. Current administration seems to be no better.
134. Robusticus.
Have you not noticed that they all use a single common christian name only (dez, andrew, tim, ermintrude etc.).
It really is tedious.
74 As I said - Bercow had the guts to defy the wop on section to defy the whip on section 28.
Who mentioned Leadership?
Camaron bottled it.
Try to be correct when being rude Richard - otherwise you look foolish
143. That’ll be a long one.
Coverage has been pretty wretched for Labour the past couple of weeks; perhaps Mandy or Campbell has been onto ITN to remind them that they are in an election period - and have to be equally vicious about all the main parties…
142: It is only a short term distraction… after the summer and all of the expenses are made public people will rightly ask about the economy. Gordon Brown has no answer to that and will not.
147. Ermintrude, that common Christian name…
Dez gone now its Tim… LOL
148 Before any corrections for ironic purposes “74 As I said - Bercow had the guts to defy the wop on section to defy the whip on section 28.
Who mentioned Leadership?
Camaron bottled it.
Try to be correct when being rude Richard - otherwise you look foolish”
Try to be correct when correcting, tim.
138 I remember well (I passed my 21st birthday in February that year).In my opinion,the personal abuse piled upon Mr.Neil Kinnock and his family crossed the line of human decency- the last 3-4 days of the campaign were a mud-sling by the right-wing tabloids of the UK.
What’s done is done,I fully accept.
I personally hope the general election,whenever it comes is fought hard but FAIR- I would rather the Labour Party lost than unleash vitriol and venom upon David Cameron and his family as was done to someone else in 1992
139: Why does David Cameron need Rifkind as a mentor if he is PM? The only ones who could give him advice are Maggie, John, and Tony. Gordon would not be worth asking.
152 It had one owner on ‘The Magic Roundabout’
156 Older generation ? (Rifkind is about 63,I recall) Mrs.T has the onset of Alzeimher’s,I imagine Major shuts out of his mind ever being PM,Tony Blair..hmmm
148 - that was weird predictive testing
So are we expecting any polls tonight?
140 Wayne , I think Cameron is a shoe in.
Blair got some stick over his and Harmans children eductaion, he did the right thing, even though the media and the opposition went over the top.
Cameron, like Blair is a bright lad he will be ok.
155 Come off it Patrick, with Brown at the helm it will be the nastiest most deceitful campaign ever. The man has made a career out of lying and intimidation.
@160: I believe OGH mentioned that he was expecting a couple tonight, but didn’t know what exactly. Or I misunderstood. One of the two.
162: especially with balls and the prince of darkness running the show
156: I think your wrong about John Major but the point I was trying to make was what does Rifkind know about being Pm.
The most important person to David Cameron will be Sam Cameron she will be the only person he will be able to trust.
165. That’s a vote of confidence in the shadow cabinet!
123 Since the topic being discussed was Conservative activists’ view of John Bercow “so what?” was an entirely fitting response. Why would a Conservative activist think any better of John Bercow for defying the party whip on this?
sky: (reporting NOTW) Julie Kirkbride let her brother live at their taxpayer funded flat rent free.
Three hours of Alan Clarke on YESTERDAY Channel for anyone interested.
An hour of Extream Breastfeeding follows on the REALLY Channel.
162 Voreas I hope you are wrong.
But as Patrick said the personal abuse piled on Neil Kinnock and his family was way over the top by the right wing tabloids.
Too Major`s credit I believe he thought it went beyond the pale.
It was a terrible defeat at the time for Labour only comparable for Conservatives if they wake up in May 2010 to a defeat.
162 Assuming GB is STILL leader-I’d say 1/4 he will be,bit I would not lay my mortgage on it!
141 Mellor has indeed reivented himself. I know he considers himself something of a football pundit but he is respected as an expert on Classical Music and his afternoon programme on a Sunday on Classic FM has been running for many years and is very popular. I still cant believe any woman and especially not one as attractive as Lady Penelope Cobham would leave her husband for him though.
Assuming Cameron enters No 10 next May, he will be looking to those among his parliamentary party who held cabinet rank in the Major Government for some guidance. Clark and Rifkind were among the most respected senior politicians in the G7 in the early/mid 90s and both will have maintained their high level contacts in other countries. Inheriting the worst placed economy in Old Europe he will need all the advise he can get. As PM he will then have to choose whether to take it or not.
172 - Yes, but then you don’t have to look at Mellor on radio.
166: I would say the same for any leader of any party even Mr. Clegg what did they say to Clinton “if you want a friend in Washington get a dog”
155. Patrick-
I freely admit to having only voted Tory in all elections. That said in 1997 i thought it better for the country the other side won. I have no problem with frequent changes of Government every 4 - 8 years as after two terms apart from in the odd exceptional cases any longer is just too long!
I wonder if Labour wish they had lost in 2005 now?
Kirkbride employs her brother IIRC. I think she is finished as well.
170 And it is sometimes forgotton that John Major and Neil Kinnock,upon Major’s invitation,a fortnight or three weeks after the election,had an amicable lunch where it was arranged,for want of a better expression,that in due course Neil Kinnock would be a n EU commissioner-it makes me smile that through the spite and venom of the right-wing UK media,Neil Kinnock ultimatel got a far better-paid job than he would have as UK Prime Minister-what goes around,comes around,as goes the old saying
Cameron the ruthless turns his MPs’ disasters to the party’s advantage
With one eye on the general election, David Cameron is showing no mercy to Tory MPs caught up in the expenses scandal
Yet again David Cameron seems to have turned the expenses crisis to his advantage – or at least minimised the damage effectively so that whatever his MPs throw at him he emerges looking stronger than if nothing had happened.
Andrew Mackay’s decision this afternoon to step down as an MP came after a conversation between the two men. Mackay was, I would imagine, moving towards going anyway. But Cameron, I am told, was in no doubt.
It was no time for sentimentality. The man who just a couple of weeks ago looked on course to be Chief Whip in a Cameron cabinet – and after that would have had a peerage landed in his lap – had to go. His career and life’s ambition ended at a stroke
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/may/23/david-cameron-ruthless-expenses-scandal
170 Frankly I don’t remember too much abuse towards Kinnock but I was busy being a student. What I do remember was the Sheffield rally which meant I had no doubts about teaching the arrogant tw@t a lesson when it came to voting.
Everything since has said to me it was good not to let him have power, he has that underlying hate in his character(much like Brown) that always made him unsuitable for the role of prime minister.
175 The economic outlook was benign in 2005,to coin the then-leader of the Opposition’s diagnosis for his defeat (Happy days!)
I’m NOT in favour of witch-hunting every last MP for every last penny-I acyally feel Andrew Mackay has been somewhat over-killed.
Perhaps I’m getting soft as middle-age approaches?
Can MD’s cannon be converted into a double barrel contraption?
177 - contrast with Brown:
1. Blears’s behaviour is ‘totally unacceptable’.
2. Blears says she’s not going anywhere.
3. Blears is suddenly doing a ‘good job’
Ian Gibson (lab) Julie Kirkbride (con) Two of my favourite MPs who must surely be going now. Hope Gordon Prentice, Richard Shepherd & Peter Tapsell are all untouched!
175 Martin thats a bit boring did not expect you to vote for anything in a blue rosette.
176.Patrick Yes - I like Kinnock on the human scale but it is his political style and Anti-tory stuff i don’t like! (Grind Tories into dust! 2007) Kinnock is true to what he believes in - Socialism, i do not agree with him but i thought it great in the last 12 months on the hardship loans for folk unemployed he said the penal interest will not be introduced (I.e. Over his dead body and obviously he spoke to some people!). It was never introduced.
That was kinnock at his best, championing the poor etc. At his worst the indecision and the ranting (Plus Sheffield) did for him.
180. You mean for His n’ Hers one-way journeys into space?
180 - If it can’t be we can always double shot it.
178 Going even deeper,perhaps Neil Kinnock was too much a ‘vallies man’ ie a tradtional ‘old Labour’ man to reach the Readings,Lutons etc of the south-east of England.If you look back at the 92 Labour manifesto,it advocated a 50p tax rate on income over £40K- adjsuting for inflation,that would equate to c.£65K in todays terms-certainly not a king’s ransom in the south-east of England.
Hey ho!
58- John O- after the debacle that has become the Labour Govt your side of the Tory party is a very attractive indeed!
181: ‘Blears is suddenly doing a “good job”‘
Not only that! I was appalled to learn earlier than Brown skulked up to Blears and offered her a grovelling apology for his behaviour. Does anyone know if she accepted?
Robusticus @ 164 “Wayne, are you for real or are you indulging in some sort of trolling exercise?”
No, he’s not. Real, that is.
Trolling? Absolutely.
When he first appeared - only a few weeks ago - he was a Gordon Brown cheerleader.
172 For reasons that I can’t begin to fathom, lots of women find David Mellor very attractive. He was a serial lecher during his career at the Bar.
Response to Socrates at 4:
“Some muppet on Question Time argued that the fact in MPs in safe seats ripped off the taxpayer more was an argument for PR. How the hell do you work that out? Two Tories, two Labourites and a Lib Dem here clearly are in no danger of losing their seat, thus the real contest here becomes who is 6th, 7th and 8th most popular. Barmy system, barmy institution.”
As with the exchange a couple of threads ago, this entirely depends on which system of PR you are advocating. If the person on QT was advocating the list system he or she was indeed a muppet. If he or she was advocating STV, this was a reasonable argument.
Some systems of PR, including the diabolical system of closed party lists which we currently use for European elections, are more likely to encourage complacency and corruption than FPTP, in that the people at the top of a closed party list are even safer than those standing for the safest of safe seats.
But other PR systems, and as Tabman correctly points out at post 30, Single Transferable Vote is an example, give the voters rather than party machines the power to choose whichever candidate for a particular party is most popular.
I’m not a huge fan of PR, but I don’t see how any reasonable person can dispute that some systems of PR are vastly more democratic than others. STV is a relatively good one: but IMHO, closed party lists are the least democratic system of “election” ever devised.
183.
I considered LD in 2005 because of Iraq in about week 3 of the campaign but thought better of it!
So i have always voted Tory! Just to be different i will vote Tory in the Euros and the Next GE!!!
191. Mellor, Mellors? Gamekeeper, obviously.
F##kin lying bar steward and of course Pravda play it up for him,
“Labour MP Ian McCartney has announced he is to stand down at the next general election due to poor health.”
No, the Telegraph are going to do him tomorrow, so the Pravda machine go into full support mode, like Gibson. Must be fairly bad for a Labour MP to jump.
Notice, it is friggin impossible to find Goggins story anywhere! Like the Bradshaw story, hush it up asap.
O.K,one last question about Neil Kinnock ,for voreas and Martind Day.Imagine this scenario:
(a)Polls show in 9 days you are going to be elected Prime Mininster
(b) A huge rally of 10,000 supporters is your platform-you get to the stage,hear a deafening roar of support and aduluation.
Hand on heart,can you guarantee you would NOT get carried away,and do something a little daft (Like yell ‘Well alright? 3 times :wink:)
(A Labour leaning friend said this-Kinnock should have arrived,and waited 10 or 20 minutes before going to the stage,instead of going straight in ,unaccusomed to the atmosphere,which a friend present said was ‘mindblowing’
Back on thread- Ladbrokes Green party to win plus 24% at 3-1 appears to be very tasty. The Greens will not poll less than 6%, and I cannot see the Tories reaching 30%. I would have placed this bet at evens.
In fact I am just off to help myself to a bit more
191. Maybe it was his bluging pockets as he would be minted as a barrister i assume?
184 Martin it wasn`t Sheffield.
Kinnock said he knew in 92 Labour had lost when people looked away during the campaign.
The personal attacks on him from 87 after the succesful Kinnock Broadcast to 92 were vicious in the extreme and were constant throughout that period.
Believe me if every paper but the Mirror, went against Cameron for 5 years, Cameron would struggle to win in a recession election.
Everyone seen this?
189
Blears is probably heating the poker, even now
196 - Patrick - the Labour team refered to themselves as ‘the Cabinet’ in the weeks before that election. The rally was just confirmation that they felt they were already entitled to win the election, and therefore it was particularly fantastic that they did not.
195. Oracle. Unless they have got more on him, he’s been done a few days ago…..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5339908/Ian-McCartney-claimed-for-champagne-flutes-and-700-table-and-chairs-MPs-expenses.html
194,198 I imagine it’s his green breath that appeals to the ladies.
200 - The man appears to be Teflon in everything he does!
202 - Staines says more coming tomorrow! But he may be wrong.
199 “vicious in the extreme” on Kinnock?
You must be mad, He was and should have been locked up,
Just put a little bit more on the Greens to win at 24% plus for the Euros with Ladbrokes. Exceptional value at 3-1.
Morus- I cannot even being to understand your logic here. All serbo croat to me.
204 - Hope the driver has the book thrown at him, the speed he was driving.
205 - Oh good. Another week when the Telegraph won’t get my money.
201
A narrow victory for Kinnock in that election would have been the best option.
In 92 the Conservatives were tired. The extra five years in power blighted the party and gave us 12 years of untrammeled NuLabour.
Interesting to note,
MPs expenses: Reform can wait; what the people want now is an election
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/5374516/MPs-expenses-Reform-can-wait-what-the-people-want-now-is-an-election.html
Already got the Currant Bun shouting about a GE, Daily Rant seem to be on the same track.
Can Gordo hold on and ignore all the shouting?
191 Mellor is a greasy slug - can’t think of many who would be more repellant.
201 - actually, I probably agree. It would have been better for the Tories - in the long-term - had they lost. I just liked the arrogance being smacked down a bit, but in many cases the sense of entitlement Labour has perpetuated since then is much worse.
212 Come to think of it, many women clearly find John Prescott attractive. I suppose that a lot of women just find something appealing about disgustingly ugly men.
210 - The problem with counterfactuals is that once you alter one fact you just don’t know what other facts would then be in play. So to predicate history on Kinnock only being in for 4/5 years as is the bulk of 92 counterfactuals is unwise. Labour could have been in for 12 years from 1992, they could have still been in now, we just don’t know.
210, even.
196 You are probably right and most people would get excited, but what Sheffield said was “I take victory for granted” and that was not very wise, clearly though blair learnt that lesson.
199 Kinnock had the broadcast media giving him more than a fair wind, and by 97 through to 2005 blair had the support of all the media. Cameron can not count on the support of any paper or Television channel. Brown has the natural Labour advantage of Media luvvies all innately being to the left plus the lobby system and Campbell and Mcbride’s working of the media to his advantage. It is only because Brown is so blatantly rubbish at government that Cameron gets a look in.
103
211 - Yes he can.
So his dear wife won’t be far behind.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/MPs-Expenses-Andrew-Mackay-And-Ian-McCartney-To-Quit-At-Next-Election-After-Telegraph-Revelations/Article/200905415287200?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15287200_MPs_Expenses%3A_Andrew_Mackay_And_Ian_McCartney_To_Quit_At_Next_Election_After_Telegraph_Revelations
Hmmm first husband and wife team to resign in British Political History??
219 - Probably be a very bad idea. The tide seems to be turning and expenses scandal at the moment seems all about Tory Toffs and taxpayer funding their massive houses (when the reality is
Labour doing just the same).
Look at today, all about some Tory and £5k gates, when a ex charities minister covered up that a charity boss was living at his house for 11 years for free and he paid £5k to a taxi driver for a kitchen!
In 12 months time, Gordo will face massive unemployment / rising crime / cuts in public services (they are happening already), expenses will have died down to “all were at it”, who is left? (and it looks like Blears, Hoon, Darling, etc will still be there), and Gordo ran away from 2 elections hanging on for dear life until the bitter end. Not a good combination.
220 Maybe, should really have been Balls-Cooper but not a decent bone in their bodies.
Fantastic news. Apparently the Lib dems ‘winning’ in North Yorkshire. Posh villages to the north of York have in the past few days seen ranks of garish orange ‘Winning here’ posters spreading like a contagion from leafy hedgerow to gravelled drive and bay window.
Such bombast from a group who will finish third in the Euro election vote for the region and continue to be a vastly outnumbered opposition on North Yorkshire county council.
Liberal Democrats: NOT winning here !
220. Hopefully soon to be followed by the Wintertons, the Keens and the Robinsons and of course the Cooper-Balls’s. Husband and wife MP’s seem to be universally ghastly!
Amusing to hear Fraser Nelson on the BBC news channel a few hours ago point out Gordon Brown’s hypocrisy in perhaps being about to dispense with Hazel Blears but not Geoff Hoon. Unaccountably, he missed out the words and James Purnell. That omission couldn’t possibly have something to do with the fact that Nelson just happens to be a great admirer of Purnell and the number one fan of his welfare reform package, could it?
Of course not. Cynical of me.
211. Oracle:
D’Ancona is about the only sane voice left who writes for the Telegraph. Probably explains why the Spectator stands head and shoulders above any other right of centre media outlet.
What do you reckon see the Telegraph go to the wall and see the Speccie go daily?
214. “I suppose that a lot of women just find something appealing about disgustingly ugly men.”
Makes it feel more slutty maybe - for those that way inclined.
220.First husband and wife team to resign from the Commons in three hundred years ?
Re Neil Kinnock I have little doubt that his outburst at Sheffield proved decisive in giving Major an overall majority at the 92 Election - it had the effect of boosting the turnout to the Tories advantage leading many disillusioned voters who had intended to abstain or switch to the LibDems to close their eyes and re elect the Tories as the least worst option.
I thought the Telegraph sales were holding up very well compared to the other broadsheets.
227 More to do with keeping “their” man and they probably expect to get treated better.
227. It’s the power - it’s like catnip to certain women.
230. It was wishful thinking on my part not a prediction of what will happen unfortunately.
177 - Compare and contrast with one Gordon “courage” Brown.
Wayne, you need to settle down lad
232. True enough. I just can’t imagine anyone seeing Mellor as powerful even if he was Emperor of the Universe. But that’s me.
233. Lol. Fair enough.
229 Evidence (whose source I cannot recall for the life of me) that Neil Kinnock’s Sheffield gaffe saved the Tories 20-22 seats-in other words instead of 336 (in a 651 seat chamber) they’d have been down to 314-316- it ispur conjecture,but on the basis of the then l;arger contingent of Ulster Unoionist MPs backing them,that Major coulkd have limped on,for a year,give or take (and who knows ,Neil Kinnock might have lived to fight one more day,having denied the Tories an operall majority)?
Its all conjecture,and 17 years ago.Its 7.48 pm by my watch,so off for a shave and freshen-up before toddling off to my local boozer.
Ciao for now
232 True. Think of Kissinger.
199. Guardian, Independent, Observer, BBC not exactly anti-Kinnock
214 Speed dating via the RNIB was their only chance IMHO
208, opponent of the Government narrowly misses death at the hands of lorry driver.
240 LOL!
Mind you, I did once ask a stunningly attractive Conservative councillor whether she found John Prescott attractive and her response was “I’d rather be a l*sbian.”
230 it’s their animal pictures and celebrity web strategy that keeps them up there.
The rest of the paper is a cutnpaste press release job with the odd good column - and of course Mr Hannan.
I bought it for years, but it’s been threadbare for many months.
Sorry I made a mistake with my prediction earlier i reckon the Telegraph ICM poll will be
Con 35
Lab 29
Lib 27
242. You never know, though, the problem there might have been more ‘Conservative councillor’ than ’stunningly attractive’.
Food for thought, for all those saddo pbers still defending our MPs and attacking the Noble Telegraph.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/22/mps-expenses-houseofcommons
A better day at the crease for the Tories and glorious weather.
Are we expecting a poll tonight?
235. Indeed all I ever remember of Mellor was his dodgy teeth and dreadful personality!
247. “A better day at the crease for the Tories”
Really? Even including the epic queues to sign the “Julie Kirkbride must be burned alive” petition?
247
yes i have made my prediction see 244 its been awful for us all the media are ganging up on us etc etc, grim
O/T - This story just blows my mind. My vertigo wouldn’t allow me to abseil even 7ft…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/hampshire/8065370.stm
Does anybody know if maguire has thrown in the towel? His last post on what is laughably known as his site was on the 6th of this month. He seems to have given up following his involvement with McBride being exposed.
http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/maguire/
244. Too high for us (Lib) alas. Others vote is too low.
I think the Euros is playing its part in keeping pollinga bit out of whack, helped by expenses. After 6 June is when we’ll see a truer picture.
232.Oracle says:
23/5/2009 at 7:34 pm
219 - Probably be a very bad idea. The tide seems to be turning and expenses scandal at the moment seems all about Tory Toffs and taxpayer funding their massive houses (when the reality is
Labour doing just the same).”
I think that you are right to say that the tide is turning, but its not about who is in the spotlight. I think that the ArchBishop and Nadine will be proved correct with the timing of their intervention on this. The voters have moved on, they want a GE now, not the continued unedifying daily ritual of humiliation poured over the heads of named and shamed MP’s. They don’t want their whole democracy trashed into the dust without any thought to anything but one newspaper’s ratings.
The voters get it, Parliament gets it, the old system stunk to high heaven.
Deeply uncomfortable with the way that the Telegraph has been handling this whole issue, and their actions towards Dorris, not just over her blog, but when she published the email she received from them with regard her own expenses. While everyone was telling her to shut up, I defended her, because I think that she got the timing of her intervention on this correct. My gut instinct were beginning to tell me the same thing. The Telegraph have overplayed their hand badly, and the arrogance its now displaying should be a worry too.
I think Mike said he thought there were likely to be a poll out but hadn’t heard of a particular one that was due.
250. Yeah but, once the great burning of Tory sleaze-monkeys is over and the cameras look round for more victims there’ll be Cameron looking all clean and righteous pointing his finger at McDoom and cronies hiding under a table.
232.”jsfl says:
23/5/2009 at 7:43 pm
227. It’s the power - it’s like catnip to certain women.”
By jove, you have got it! Just goes to show that you could make it on a women’s magazine where Sean would flounder.
You can see what Cameron is doing, get the troughers out now and take a short term hit because long term matters if you are in government.
As for Brown, he’s trying to hide things short term (he always fails the long term thinking test)in the hope that he can squeeze through a quick election while Cameron is still sticking the knife in and that the electorate find out his lies and cover ups of the corruption in his party while they are back in government (a total lack of morality from Brown again).
244 - 27% would be nice but I can’t see it yet, given that Brown is currently trying to hide everything under the (John Lewis) sofa.
I swear there used to be a relatively normal Tory poster here called Wayne, whose posts tended to veer towards the sensible. Surely this new doom-mongering Wayne is either a new person entirely, or someone ‘borrowing’ his name to make troll as a ‘worried Tory’. There’s a poster called Gezmond on ConHome who does exactly the same thing - except for the time he accidentally exposed himself as a Labour voter.
258
yes he probably will squeeze in an election and he’d probably beat us at the moment
259. Power helps, but it’s having the gift of the gab that matters. The old truism - “Men are seduced via their eyes, women via their ears”.
Oh, and Marcel Proust averred that you could get any woman into bed if you were willing to sit up until 4 in the morning listening to her complaining.
Never tried that one.
Interesting CoffeeHouse article, apparently Gordon only likes his indpendent bodies when they shill for Labour.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3641593/king-rains-on-browns-parade.thtml
264. “Oh, and Marcel Proust averred that you could get any woman into bed if you were willing to sit up until 4 in the morning listening to her complaining.
Never tried that one.”
I haven’t tried that deliberately, but if it worked believe me I’d know.
I think that although the expenses stories are still top of the agenda ordinary life carries on and jobs are still hard to find and for that alone people will blame Labour
263 And if you believe that, then truly you will believe anything.
259. LOL!
264. b. How many powerful people do you know who aren’t reasonably articulate?
Just saw the Queen, at the Chelsea Flower Show (on TV).
After all the repulsive sleaze, greed and second-rate vulgarity of the last two weeks, one thing is confirmed: thank God we have a monarchy.
And thank God, moreover, for the irreproachable probity and dignity of Her Britannic Majesty, Queen Elizabeth the Second.
Huzzah.
263 - No he wouldn’t otherwise he would be seeing the Queen so fast you would only see the dust.
259
Should Cameron regurigitate the Cameron Conservative on the ballot paper.
As he is likeable unlike the moat dredgers.
264.”b. says:
23/5/2009 at 8:07 pm
259. Power helps, but it’s having the gift of the gab that matters. The old truism - “Men are seduced via their eyes, women via their ears”.”
That is true, as I have proved on here when I whittered on about Cruddas’s having a voice which is pure v1agra on the radio.
My other half never understood my long held attraction to a certain Bond playing Scottish actor, even when he was drawing his pension. Its the voice….
270. ditto
264 Maybe women are really turned on by the sight of a man in a Chelsea strip.
A wild generalisation - but in general, I think women are more likely to be attracted to dreadful men than the reverse.
264. Hm. Not sure we should take Marcel Proust as an absolute oracle on heterosexual seduction.
His favourite erotic pastime was to visit gay brothels in Paris where he had a special peephole carved into a door, through which he would watch rats being stuck to death with pins, as he frotted himself into ecstasy.
270. Just a pity that ‘irreproachable’ monarchy costs us all about a billion times more than all the MPs’ expenses put together. But hey, just so long as it’s “within the rules”, right?
262: ‘…or someone ‘borrowing’ his name to make troll as a ‘worried Tory’.’
Yes, I think wayne has over egged the worried Tory act today, as evinced by his post at 263.
266.”I haven’t tried that deliberately, but if it worked believe me I’d know.”
Red Meteor,
MrJones says: at 8:01 pm “250. Yeah but, once the great burning of Tory sleaze-monkeys is over and the cameras look round for more victims there’ll be Cameron looking all clean and righteous pointing his finger at McDoom and cronies hiding under a table.”
Spot on. Brown is not only surrounded by flippers and porkers that gulped down thousands in food who go unpunished, he also spent tax payers money on cleaners and a new kitchen etc. We have a PM that did the same things that MPs are still being castigated (rightly) in the media.
I haven’t yet read through the thread, but Voting to Stop the BNP is one of the main reasons why I am going to vote Green this time, instead of NO2EU or the SLP.
The only reliable way to minimise the chances of the BNP is to vote for any other party which gets seats, or has a reasonable chance of getting a seat, and not to vote for a minor party which has no chance of wiunning a seat. Beyond that, the d’Hondt divisors are too intricately balanced to be able to be sure about which main party would be the most effective for doing so.
278 - either that or he had his first ever grown-up alcoholic drink this evening
276 seanT. I think you’re confusing Proust with an MP’s hotel expense claim.
247 - Good looking Conservative councillor??? You are Eric Pickles and I claim my £5
280.This is a real danger point for Cameron, not helped by the fact that the baying for blood is loudest from the Conservative grass roots, and mostly directed at their own. Its now getting to the stage where its turning into an unedifying spectacle. And it might not end up with Brown being shown as weak, or tough enough on his own crew.
Conway caused us to have a poll boost. Why? Because Dave dealt with it well.
Uukpaul is correct: Cameron is prepared to sacrifice short term for long and Brown never thinks long term.
We have a rough corner to turn. Cameron is doing the journey. Brown is putting it off.
269. Not particularly pertinent, IMO.
A better yardstick is how many non-powerful, non-Adonis-like males who have better than average chat also have a high success rate.
Hope so, you can learn to be an entertaining conversationalist, but the other two attributes are a bit more difficult to come by.
273 - so did Major have sexy ears then?
*reaches for mind bleach*
Well if the doorstep this week is an indication of the polls then I cannot see the Conservatives falling much further in Westminster polls. It is towards Labour where voters real anger is being directed. With the Labourgraph clearly focusing more on Conservatives than the same % of Labour, they will soon run out of “Tory” targets.
I will be intrigued to see what the polls say.
270
Yeah! shame about the kids though, I blame the parents myself.
Well Cameron wasn’t exactly decisive over Mackay was he! Dithered long enough, it was only last night’s disasterous meeting, that showed that time was up.
The NoW revelations about dear sweet Julie should have her packing her bags.
Still we have the ST to look forward too, have they got to Fabricant yet?
Hmm, I think wayne is a classic ‘Concern Troll’. I know PB.com isn’t a Tory site but enough Tories post here for the effect to be the same. From wikipedia:
‘A concern troll is a false flag pseudonym created by a user whose actual point of view is opposed to the one that the user’s sockpuppet claims to hold. The concern troll posts in web forums devoted to its declared point of view and attempts to sway the group’s actions or opinions while claiming to share their goals, but with professed “concerns”. The goal is to sow fear, uncertainty and doubt within the group.’
289 - couple of Tories I know are rather enjoying the likes of Mackay and Mad Nad making idiots of themselves.
It’s quite possible that they don’t see them as “one of your own”, and more of a final purge of the bedblocker brigade.
If this is typical, perhaps those expecting an opinion poll wobble may be disappointed
291 - I don’t know which is more sad that there is behaviour like that or that someone has gone to the trouble of terminology.
253 Its nice to hear something positive about Portsmouth for once;without meaning to be too horrible,why do I find the place so horrible (I mean,I quite like Southampton as a place,and socio-economically they’re simliar),but plenty of other south-coasters call Pompey ‘Chav-mouth’
“Well Cameron wasn’t exactly decisive over Mackay was he! Dithered long enough, it was only last night’s disasterous meeting, that showed that time was up. ”
Do you really not understand that MPs being removed from below is better than being removed by diktat from above or are you just trolling? Brown should be calling on labour MPs to face their constituencies but have any yet? Have you seen any labour members being given a chance to vent their feelings to their MPs face (apart from on the street, and even then they don’t stay long)?
277 The Monarchy costs us very little really.
284 Take my word for it. And she may be an MP after the next election.
291. In that case, ‘Wayne’ should have taken note of what happens to even genuine Tories who express genuine concerns around here!
296. “The Monarchy costs us very little really.”
Well, as I understand it, the ball park figure is £40 million every year. Everything’s relative, I suppose - that’s considerably less than renewing Trident, but on the other hand it’s considerably more than the average duck island.
Were we just out there?
Mike, is time to put that pagination thingy (have I spelt it correctly?) into place. Site crashing intermittently as more people pile in to check for any new polls??
290 He sacked Mackay before the Telegraph got to him and then he told him not to stand before the panel had decided that.
Contrast with Brown’s actions which are precisely zero so far with actual criminal fraudulent cases and Cameron has been decisive.
289 The trouble with this reasoning is that the story may die and currently the tories due to actually doing something appear in a worse light whereas Brown’s macavity act might work for him.
290 - Coldstone, see Brown and Blears. Seriously.
Totally unacceptable.
Hazel doesn’t budge.
Hazel is doing a good job.
Sorry, Hazel.
re 300 I’ve just done that. Down to 100 comments per page.
Yes but a republic would be bad luck - can’t put a price on that.
Spain sabre-rattling over Gibralter, suspect it is for domestic consumption with the euro elections…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1186822/Navy-warships-dispatched-Spanish-invade-seas-Gibraltar.html?ITO=1490
I think I preferred wayne the Gordon sycophant to wayne the doom-laden Toryboy..!
304 - Bad Luck? Care to explain?
298. Red Meteor you poor old thing having to pay out 88p per year (if the £40 mill figure is correct) along with every other adult in this country for the monarchy.
Truly extortionate……
307. I wasn’t being serious - just something someone I used to know said.
308 - Yeah but to be honest of all the arguments on either side of the monarchy debate the dumbest one is the cost.
298. How much would a President cost us? The US were planning on spending nearly $13 billion on 28 helicopters to fly the President around in until Obama put a stop to the programme. The Royal Family look like a bargain by comparison.
Interesting that Wick said the Claims had been redacted twice already. As I have said upthread I think Brown leaked the expenses claims in order to distract from:-
a) the disastrous state of the economy
b) his leadership problems
c) Labours performance in the euros.
and also to draw a line under expenses in a brown controlled way and attack his enemies inside and outside the Labour Party. The fact that the files were released already twice redacted in my opinion backs the Brown leaking for his own benefit theory.
311.They are a bargain, and they bring more revenue on the back of tourism than any politician would.
310. You are right, the money is not the issue. I want to keep the monarchy so that we never have to put up with President Blair, or God forbid it President Brown.
Oh dear we have the first of tomorrows expense stories. Not good for the boys in Yellow.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5375097/MPs-expenses-Liberal-Democrat-MP-Malcolm-Bruce-claimed-running-costs-for-two-homes.html
A senior Liberal Democrat MP claimed for thousands of pounds towards the running of both his London flat and his constituency home
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5375097/MPs-expenses-Liberal-Democrat-MP-Malcolm-Bruce-claimed-running-costs-for-two-homes.html
310. James - why is it dumb?
308. “Red Meteor you poor old thing having to pay out 88p per year (if the £40 mill figure is correct) along with every other adult in this country for the monarchy. Truly extortionate……”
How much have I paid for the duck island then? 000000.1p? At least that went towards saving the lives of a few innocent ducks, which is more than can be said for the money lavished on the object of SeanT’s sycophantic adoration!
314 - Again a particularly silly reason for opposing a republic. What would a President be able to do that a Prime Minister can’t?
312.After everything that went on before, what on earth were these details doing on a disc unencrypted?
318 ROFLMAO
317 - Well any system has costs, but to compare the cost of the UK monarchy with the US Presidency as is nearly always the case is really really stupid. There is no way that a British republic would cost what the US presidency does.
277. I never understand the critique of the monarchy, that it is too expensive, Prince Charles shouldn’t have a butler who squeezes his toothpaste etc.
I mean of course there are limits, but £40m seems fair enough.
Because he’s a f*cking prince. And he’s a future King of England too (and he will also rule the other lesser bits of Britain, like Scotchland and the Irish chunk).
This is what princes do. This is what they are FOR - living lives of decorative luxury. Do you really want him to live in a council house and get the Tube to Buckingham Palace?
The whole idea of a monarchy is that you give one family a bunch of palaces and servants but no power so they can be a thread of soap opera gold in the tapestry of the nation - and you make sure they are so loaded they don’t have to embarrass us with sordid little Labourite claims for chocolate Santas.
Vivat Rex.
319. well, with brown as pm, govern!!!
320 Indeed, the question you always have to ask is who benefits? and at the minute Brown and his coterie is the answer, especially when you consider there were leadership rumblings growing louder just before this.
319 But there are no reasons to have a Republic. It is just change for change sake.
319. Claim to be top dog. I bet it winds Brown up that he ain’t!
323. “Do you really want him to live in a council house and get the Tube to Buckingham Palace?”
I want him to be an ordinary citizen, which means he can live wherever he chooses (subject to his own income), and if he fancies visiting Buckingham Palace as a tourist that’s entirely a matter for him.
315. I think the Daily Telegraph is doing this in such a way that it benifits no party. What it does is show who needs to go! Labour, LD and Tory.
I may not be popular with some of the MPs who post under aliases or their mates but anything dodgy and they should be out!
MPs have a priveleged position they are wrong to make it a gold plated one! Maybe i am annoyed with the side i vote for because they have been moaning about not being paid enough so they have outside interests. What this has proved is absolute tosh as they have creamed the system and not done that much parliamentry work either. Plus many of them are much better off than I even when in work. If they don’t like it clear off and let someone else have a go. The arrogance by some on people having the ability to do the job! I should imagine a third of the population are intellegent and articulate enough to do it!
This group od b@stards needs culling and throwing out and i am talking about Labour and LD as much as anyone else.
326 - No it isn’t really. It is finally accepting the fact that being born to a role is profoundly undemocratic and is a concept whose time has well and truly past.
From my calculations around 240 or 60% of the remaining 420 MPs (from the major parties) are Labour. The more opposition MPs that are outed now the worse it will be for Labour in the end.
* * * BETTING POST * * *Skybet have restored their Edinburgh South market with sensible odds which suggests IIRC antifrank was correct that they had Labour and LD the wrong way round last time.
OT, just been watching “House of Cards” on DVD. The one where the Foreign Secretary wants to mount a leadership challenge against an unpopular PM… Spooky.
Regarding the allegations on Malcom Bruce, is Clegg finally going to sack one of his side? Anyone see pigs flying?
Somehow I doubt it. Rennard gets a 4 to 6 month notice period and the LD party say nothing officially on the allegations….
328. Ah, the insufferable dullness of the republican. I think this is what I most object to about republicans, their fanatical and priggish pomposity.
They are like Richard Dawkins espousing his atheism, without Dawkins’ trademark humility.
Plus if Al Beeb keeps going after Tory backbenchers while ignoring Labour Cabinet ministers then people are going to start to notice.
330. Yes i agree with that! I am a passive republican!
Being King/Queen and therefore head of state by accident of birth is not right. However, given that sometimes the Palace does help the Government see the light i am passive about it!
A directed elected PM is the way and seperation of powers. The Royal family would dissapear as the new institution of Directly PM would gradually eclipse and grow over the years.
I just think the Monarchy is not right for this age. But i would not want to see a violent end to it or one just for the sake of it!
331. Oh FFS that is really going to change the world. So you admit it is pointless symbolism!
When was your life actually last directly effected by something the Royal Family did?
Oh dear some of us have been paying too much council tax… and the government tried to cover it up.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/5374162/Householders-paying-too-much-council-tax-due-to-Government-errors.html
Morus - I’m afraid I think you are over-egging the pudding here. Yes of course this video and the green campaign is being conducted to maximise their votes. Yes the video is probably wrong to assume that the UKIP vote will collapse.
But fundamentally if the Greens get more votes than the BNP than Nick Griffin will not be elected. A vote for libertas/NO2EU/Jury is a wasted vote and if these people are on the right (and can stand voting for the most corrupt part of all) UKIP would be a natural home. But as you say the Greens are going after lefty voters and I think it is reasonable that - with creative campaigning and high profile endorsements - they could beat the BNP into 6th place. If you add the Respect votes (who are not standing and have endorsed Peter Cranie locally) the Greens would have outpolled the BNP in 2004. Afraid I’m not feeling rich or certain enough to take your £100 bet, but I’ll buy you a pint after June 4th if Greens don’t come 5th.
I have nothing but respect for The Queen, despite accidentally mooning her in Holyrood Palace.
Good to see that my local MP in Bedford and 1992 general election opponent, Pat Hall, has been named as one of the goodies - claiming a modest amount for his second home. Let’s hope that this shuts up the thugs in the local Labour party who’ve been trying to get him out.
Good on you Pat.
334 Yep, republicans just want to make the world a more drab and boring place.
337 - It wasn’t, but it is really time to accept that we have grown up as a society and that the hereditary principle should be buried.
326 Born to rule, birth rights, accident of birth is the reason for change.
The concept should be dead.
Charles the third just puts the icing on the cake.
However his mother has been excellent, go out on a winning note, when she steps down, or ask the people at the time in a referendum.
334. Could I just remind you at this point that I’m not merely a republican, but a Scottish nationalist republican. It seemed to me you were limiting the scope of your abuse unnecessarily there - I’m usually eating haggis and dancing nimbly in plaid while I’m being an insufferably priggish pompous fanatic.
I like the idea of one day there being a British pub on Alpha Centauri with a picture of Queen Elizabeth 23rd on the wall.
Apologies if this has already been posted but I thought some might be interested in this description of Andrew Mackay in Gyles Brandreth’s “Breaking the Code”:
Andrew “snake hips” Mackay was very funny to watch: tan-coloured suit (not quite a gentleman), tanned face (not quite ringing true), he glided smoothly among us….
The not quite comments seem rather perceptive in view of events.
344. Indeed, let’s put the monarchy to the vote. I wonder what the result would be - especially after the last two weeks.
President Brown, anyone?
343. You think that a population that obsesses over lame reality shows and cheap soap operas is a ‘grown up society’ shish. You really live in a fantasy world.
345. Watch Sean after a few drinks he might mistake your kilt for a skirt! He might suffer from a sore head in the morning but what would you suffer from?
343. By the way James you are also off message. If you’d forgotten society is broken…….
345. lol. I got my dig in at you earlier, didn’t you notice?
“lesser bits of Britain, like Scotchland” - in comment 323.
348 - Yes well I think at the moment the monarchy will have increased residual popularity. However the debate shouldn’t be boiled down to the current queen vs a current politician nobody likes. It is a much bigger debate than that.
348. What about President Lumley? At least she gives interviews, which would make her considerably more use as a ceremonial head of state than the current ‘never complain, never explain’ variety.
347. Snake hips - WTF
SeanT is an excellent jiver. FACT!
348 - it would almost be worth having Presidential elections just to see Brown in a live debate - punching members of the audience and screaming for Michael Martin to save him.
Guaranteed way to end the monarchy.
Get julie kirkbride to marry Charles
Good Evening All,
I have come for the poll watch. I’d have thought one in a sunday would have leaked by now however lets hope.
I must say I’m enjoying Trousergate enormously. I think this could run for months with the eventual death toll from retirements and public oustings recahing over a 100. A real detox for the political system. A great time to be a fresh face in any party in imagine.
We might also be seeing a small realignment of politics as well. UKIP should have gone down the plug hole this election. However if they can save there existing MEP’s with all the regional office capaicity that comes with it they could become a huge irritant to a mid term Cameron Government.
Protest votes against unpopular Tory governments usually go Lib Dem. If Farrage is allowed to complete his reform programme I wonder if a By Election in say 2013 for a rural seat like MidSommer South might not go UKIP ?
352. Oh, sorry, was that directed at me? I did read it, but naturally I assumed it was just you being you.
349 - Frankly that is a profoundly snobbish and condescending attitude.
It’s quite windy today.
No rain yet though.
Thanks be to God.
Hi-
Have never posted on here.Been a Labour voter all my life but for the first time ever I will vote for another party.
Labour is doing a good job in goverment but what lets the party down is Gordon Brown.The man is a walking nightmare and how he ever got to the post of prime minster will be one of the 21st centurys biggest mysteries.I hope we come 4th or 5th at the euros and locals and Brown goes.Its our last hope for a ge in 2010
359 - a fine idea, except you forget that UKIP are pretty much the masters of troughing.
361. No it’s neither actually. It’s a comparison between the world I grew up in and the one I live in now.
Has anyone mentioned this yet?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5375097/MPs-expenses-Liberal-Democrat-MP-Malcolm-Bruce-claimed-running-costs-for-two-homes.html
361 But not unreasonable.
As others have pointed out, if one accepts that the inheritance of wealth is legitimate, it’s hard to argue that the inheritance of a position like Monarch is not.
This could be a big moment for the greens as well. take London for example. If they get Jean Lambert reelected in London that will be 6 London wide elections in 10 years where Greens ahve got elected.
1. Destroys wasted vote arguement
2. Increases capacity via office allowances
3. Voting is a habit as much as anything. If vaguely green people get into the habit and occassionaly see a Green person the telly as a result it will begin to jell.
If they manage to break through in the NW and Eastern England regions it’ll increae there media credibility enormously.
Very bad for the LD’s long term.
364
I am with you Jsfl. the reality tv and soaps that infects out airwaves is mind numbingly dull.Its one of the main reasons I object to the license fee. Quality programmes are crowded out such that there is little worth watching. And thats without even mentioning breakfast tv, mid morning tv and afternoon tv which is the pits. A blank screen or the testcard would be more interesting.
360. No, that was personal. Maybe it was uncharacteristically polite, for me?
If so, my good mood is to blame. Last night I went to a thoroughly decadent party. It was at the top of Centrepoint. There were tequila girls in absurd bikinis, and waitresses in deshabille. And a beautiful young lady magician did a stripteaste halfway through her performance - and then did card tricks, naked.
There may be a credit crunch but some of us rich people here in London are unbowed. It’s the Blitz Spirit, all over again, only more fun.
367. Beginning to agree about the Greens. I was thinking originally that Trousergate would help the LDs but currently seems like the “left” part of the anti-political class vote might bypass them and go to the Greens.
361. James Burdett - Indeed, partly the problem of the political system at this time - the politicians have become used to having the whip hand.
They thought they had become the masters and we the people were the servants. I think the last few weeks have demonstrated that they the politicians got it wrong big style.
On a political point only Cameron seems to understand the depth of the disconnect between the people and the political elite. The discontent and the displessure the political class has come to be viewed in. This is as potentially cataclysmic for politics as Diana in 1997 was the Monarchy. Cameron seems to understand this from what i can. Brown may have thought he has bought the discontent off but unless he flays the rotten corrupt Cabinet Ministers, Ministers and MPs that are in his party and Clegg does the same with his piss ant shadow shadow MPs. They will be crushed by the people at the next election.
The electorate is not stupid though, they can decide who has been currupt and still get the change they want. That is why the polls have not shifted in terms of Tory vote share as yet IMO. We will see what happens in the next few weeks but far from belittling the people and saying they cannot understand, that is far from the message i can see. The Politicians cannot see this and now they have failed to be the voice of the people. Cameron in that sense can sweep all before him, should he chose too.
It will be interesting to see what happens on the non aligned front as well. I assume Peoples Voice will hold its seat. Esther Ratzen is doing Any Questions ? next week which suggests she may be serious abour running. Martin bell was good if smug on QT this week. I’ve heard interviews which clearly suggest that he is thinking about running again.
I wonder if Gorgious George can pull off Poplar and Limehouse in this climate? I’d always assumed that it would just get swamped by the Tory Landslide but who knows ?
Oh by the way just so people know how in the last 8 years the system has been manipulated:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5374258/MPs-expenses-How-MPs-voted-to-tax-the-Queen–and-quietly-exempted-themselves.html
366. “As others have pointed out, if one accepts that the inheritance of wealth is legitimate, it’s hard to argue that the inheritance of a position like Monarch is not.”
I’d have thought that would be extremely easy to argue, actually! But that’s a fascinating analogy - in that case the government really ought to impose a 40% inheritance tax rate on Charles when he accedes to his throne, meaning he retains 60% of his crown, with the remainder going to the state. In that way, we’ll be a full republic within a couple more generations - a very elegant method of achieving the objective!
366 - There is a slight category difference. In that inheritence of wealth is really open to all, in proportion to the wealth that their family has accrued and wealth can be subdivided between multiple inheritors. There is one apex position at the top of the political tree, it is reserved for one person. I’m not sure that in the 21st century the highest position that a British person can aspire to is chief servant.
364. The people in genreal though do things in every day life that is much more sophisiticated whilst watching the shit you mention. How many homes have broadband and things like that these days?
You cannot tar Millions of people as filth or not worthy because you dont like the cultural meduim they watch.
367 One of the great ironies of our system is that the people who you are politically closest to are necessarily your worst enemies.
I wouldn’t get too excited though. The LibDems have 63 MPs and we still get hurt by the wasted vote mentality. I’ve lost count of the number of times it’s been said to me on the doorstep in areas where we are not only in contention but are in fact the incumbents.
Greens still have a long long way to go - but maybe events much more important even than taxpayer funded gardening are moving their and for that matter our (LD) way.
Sterling performance by Robert Carlyle as Young Hitler.
368. The simple reason for that is that the likes of the BBC can afford millions in salaries for the likes of Jonathan Ross but then have to fill up the vast majority of their airtime with cheap programs.
376 - I totally agree Martin, I don’t like Britain’s Got Talent or shows like Big Brother but I take the attitude that it is the price I pay for channels like BBC4 which is going to have a subtly different audience profile!
374 I think you misunderstand compounding - we’d just be a (0.6)^n monarchy surely…
Looking for my coat so I can get it..
375 - James, you’re verging on chip-on-shoulder territory, here…
The monarch is a titular figurehead, not an “apex position” (in any meaningful sense).
Is it undemocratic? Yes? Good. An excess of democracy is no good thing. Checks and balances, particularly where they tend towards small c conservatism, are healthy part of any body politic. I’d've thought you, of all people, would appreciate this.
@367: Possibly bad for the LDs, but also bad for Labour.
A significant number of my other half’s strongly-Labour-supporting family have gone Green already, and I’ve heard others saying “we’ve always voted Labour, but we might vote Green this time” (for the first time in a long time). I’ve not heard any LD say “we’re disillusioned with Rennard and Opik and are going to vote Green”.
The reason it may be bad for the LDs is that it will reduce their share of the disaffected leftish drifting away from Labour, perhaps fatally undermining their chances to usurp them from that direction.
318 - You paid nothing for the duck house, the claim was turned down, like Kauffman’s £9k TV (unfortunately he was still allowed to import his fancy rug from the US).
MPs are being lobbied by ITV to have 2% of the licence fee diverted to fund regional ITV news - otherwise, they claim it’s likely to die out (it’s withering already). They argue that once digital switchover is finished (and apparently it’s going better and costing less thna expected, makes a nice change) they could nibble that bit without people minding, and it would prevent a regional BBC news monopoly. The BBC say no, either it should go into more diverse progrmames, or the fee should simply bbe reduced a bit.
Any views? I’m currently leaning to the ITV view.
380
BBC 4 is full of repeats
For Esther Rantzen to win a seat she needs an election in the next couple of weeks. While people’s anger will be at its highest.
“I wonder if a By Election in say 2013 for a rural seat like MidSommer South might not go UKIP ?”
Depends on which type of voter is left after all those terrible murders.
I think the impact of a single BNP MEP is being underestimated as well. It will force the media to report them becuase they’ll have been legitimised by the ballot box. There is a small ammount of space in Britain for a serious far right part in Britain. An MEP could just about help Griffin push through his programme of reform.
very interesting times
389 - the BNP are far left.
382 - Yes, I do I’m not necessarily a rabid republican but I can see the validity of their argument. I have no problem with the Queen and in as far as their is a defined role she has performed it with exceptional grace and aplomb. However I am a democrat and it does strike me as a undemocratic that is all.
What are the two “longest lived”, most successfully stable nation-states?
Japan and England.
Both islands, both monarchies.
not too sure what to make of this
325 Mp to be swept away
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6350604.ece
Doesn’t look like we’re getting any polls then?
Nick, personally I think theres a very good case for allowing ITV a slice of the licence fee for regional news programming, The loss of the ITV regional news has been one of the more depressing media developments in recent years.
390 - UKIP are the party of the far right, the BNP are the party of extreme authoritarianism (and god knows how it happened but the labour party are the next in line for the authoritarian tag).
Mackay deserves to go for the wig alone
376. Martin don’t put words in my mouth. I did nothing of the sort. It’s a shame that in your mind that’s the case……
@386:
Yes, it is.
@385: If the money could be hypothecated for regional news, and not somehow spirited into ITVs broadly ghastly output, then I would be in favour of that. However, I would fund it by freezing the license fee, for the moral equivalent of the 2% cut, and providing a different pot of funding for ITV news. If we start to slice and dice the license fee away from the BBC, it is the beginning of the end of the BBC as the bastion of public service broadcasting.
Not that I don’t think that the BBC needs a huge amount of reform, and a slashing of its bloated news output, but messing with the license fee is not the way to do that.
re 393
Edit seems to be stopped
Research conducted by The Sunday Times and Professor Colin Rallings, director of the elections centre at Plymouth University, suggests that about 170 Labour MPs will not defend their seats while 55 Conservatives are also expected to retire.
Derek Conway seems to have done a Moran
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5375135/MPs-expenses-Cash-secrets-of-the-politicians-who-keep-it-in-the-family.html
Telegraphs coverage for tomorrow - nothing exciting or particularly new:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5375135/MPs-expenses-Cash-secrets-of-the-politicians-who-keep-it-in-the-family.html
390. I use that as the common short hand but I accept your point.
385. Thin end of a wedge, Nick. They’ll want it for Arts next and then Religion… In terms of local democracy I think the state of regional news papers is a more pressing crisis. I have started buying mine again despite me not really liking it. However having been involved in local politics I know its all that stands between us and complete council tyerany.
Isn’t there some sort of way the local parts of the BBC could be spun off into local community trusts and its journalistic products be made availavailable gratis to ALL media ?
397. Sorry if i misrepresent you!
392
Gosh lauding Japan, hmmm lets see now, probably one of the most cruel states in history, launched a a war in which millions died, slaughtered millions of Chinese, and Allied troops, (including my mother’s cousin who was bayoneted to death in Hong Kong) and why because the emperor was divine.
yep there’s a lot to say about this monarchy business.
Why dont we just lock the BNP up and that will solve the problem!
403. Martin no problems.
385 Take it away from both of them. What I want is town based news programmes. Hand out(I don’t mean sell) licences for them to local people. Production values may suffer but at least I won’t have to watch some tedious story about some old granny turning 100 in a town 100 miles away.
391 - I think we get too hung up on whether a structure is ‘democratic’ or not.
For our own protection, we need democratic checks over government, but beyond that, I think it’s too often taken as an a priori good, rather than being subjected to a rational analysis.
405 - No it wouldn’t Ave it, the BNP already have a victim mentality so it is probably not a good idea to play into that.
I would get rid of all local TV news reporting. There is a case for maintaining a series of local radio stations - they can provide valuable updates but local TV has always struck me as a waste of time and money.
Look at the average evening show and you will see how little real news there is. I know I am not alone in changing channels the minute something ‘local’ comes on
And the Times continues after the Peers:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6350668.ece
And with that I’m off for a while.
406. Ok!
170 Labour MPs thought to retire ! WTF!!! I really think this expense scandal will shift the electoral landscape by so much you wonder what the outcome will be!
Nick Palmer MP:
Its an interesting proposal from ITV. I don’t know if its exactly the right way to go but I think something needs to be done about the size of the BBC relative to the other TV companies. The loss of regionality seems to have resulted in a much greater London centric output.
More talking up of the BNP by Politicalbetting. Why not just endorse them if you support racism?
412. I agree Martin. I don’t really know what the final outcome will be, but what with this expenses stuff and the recession I get the feeling this election is going to one of those historic, once or twice a century results - A true political earthquake.
409 ok then just kick them off the voting slips then
(Saves money on the locking up)
412 ‘170 Labour MPs thought to retire’ - is that involuntarily on 07.05.2010???
400.Wibbler, check out the earlier story linked to up thread.
And yet — even Japan doesn’t impose an ID card scheme on all its citizens.
No dispute that Japan was responsible for many terrible atrocities during WW2, but Germany did worse without any divine figureheads.
385.
What is special about ITV regional news? Regional newspapers are withering too. Should they get 5% of the licence fee? In fact, why not use the TV licence fee as a handy pot of money for every failing commercial outfit?
No. If ITV want cash from he govt (us!), for regional news (or, next things - arts or childrens programming) at least let them justify a new tax or levy to pay for it. Robbing the BBC licence fee is just a really sneaky move. It’s like nicking the small kid’s dinner money.
415 - An interesting notion but my take is it is probably best off defeating their arguments in debate and their candidates in the ballot. No point incresing their martyr complex.
I seem to be several pitchfork lengths behind the baying mob here, but what is the problem with the brother of Mackay’s wife, the MP Julie Kirkbride, sometimes living rent-free in their taxpayer-funded Bromsgrove home? Surely the scandal would have been if she had charged him rent - and profited accordingly?
If only Jacqui Smith’s sister had let her stay rent free - then the nation’s coffers would be that bit fuller….
413. Err. If the BBC is too big relative to the others, then cut the BBC in half. You can achieve balance and save money you know.
420 - However, it seem like being a former Charities Minister and not declaring having the head of a major UK Charity living with you for over 11 years rent / bills free (against the Ministerial Code) isn’t news though! Neither is paying the lodger £5k of taxpayers money to get his Taxi driver brother to do the kitchen.
416. Depends if you are being charitable or not!
One thing is for certain the seens of slow hand clapping and people shouting out will be widespread unlike in Putney in 1997 IIRC it was just Mellor in Putney!
412 Be interesting to see the incumbency benefit unwind - and actually become a negative for many.
Just a quick mention for Malcolm Bruce who is featuring in the DT.
I assume that he won’t be claiming quite so much this year since his wife is now one of my local councillors having managed to come in second best in an election recently.
Also it’s good to see this office for a large rural constituency is 30 mins outside the constituency and that’s for some of the closer parts others will be over an hour away from it.
His wife is also a bit coy about her job as on her election leaflet she described herself as office manager but never mentioned who she worked for her hubbie and was getting about 27-30k pa from the public.
Can I suggest you read this http://www.irfanahmed.org/2009/05/outcome-in-north-west.html
The weird thing about Hitler’s early life is that you kind of support him, as the plucky underdog - the brave working class corporal, fighting the Establishment, and designing cool flags in his garret.
It’s just a shame his later career was more equivocal.
413 With digital TV the old model of 4 or 5 channels has been destroyed. If “ITV” continues why not re-advertise regional franchises, break up the failed current ITV model which in name of efficiency has driven down both quality and audiences. Let regional newspapers have shares or regional ITV stations own newspapers (and radio) and build multimedia regional champions.
It might be worth thinking about the most unlikely seat to fall to the Conservatives, any seats that might buck the trend and fall to Labour etc. Also all depends on the timing.
419 ah ok James you still believe in the old fashioned time honoured democratic process!!
423 yes Martin probably for all of them. All about claiming for the duck pond!!!
PS LDs =
422 The BBC, the Telegraph and Gordon Brown are all tying themselves in knots trying to get some consistent line on what is acceptable behaviour and what is not…
Hint: let the voters decide in a GE.
Conway is bad news for the Tories - he’s already sacked him and can’t sack him again!
432 no hung parliament nailed on!
Con maj loads!!
Lab = not many
430 - Yeah I’m old fashioned like that!
Gordo fallen out with somebody else!
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3641593/king-rains-on-browns-parade.thtml
433 - Ave it, I think you pressed an ‘m’ key by mistake in there!
431. The beeb have their eye on another source of tax
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1184474/BBC-chief-demands-charge-iPlayer-stop-viewers-getting-free-ride.html
420. I think it is the ‘effective double claim’ because Mackay & Kirkbride are now emeshed in this greater public discontent.
My take was Mackay taking the flak for his wife for this scandal in that old and English gualent custom! Mackay takes the blade whilst his wife lives on! I think he has miscalculated, if that is the case - both will end up being removed whether it is now or by the electorate.
I bet the Malcolm Bruce thing is another “within the rules” but it looks shady.
1. I notice the article says he has a constituiiency office as well. So to claim effectively for two office premises one of which is actually your home smells.
2. Its going to look worse than it is because the house is outside the constituiency and its his wife.
How similar is the Westminister seat to the Holyrood one held by Salmand ? Are the SNP fight it hard or his his personal vote stronger than Nora’s ?
429 James, it is so hard to see Tory seats falling to Labour, because the Tories will most likely evict any miscreants that could act as a lightning rod for voter disaffection.
Labour, on the other hand are keeping theirs in place - if only because so many would have to go the GE would have to be called. Got to be a chance if Balls stays, then Balls gets neutered by the voters…
440 - Yeah, but always worth looking at!
424. Marquee Mark
The LD could be the biggest loses if that is the case!
437 - Problem is you can get HD quality BBC shows from “other” sources for free. Interesting to note these “other” sources carry government advertising, both the sites in a grey area of linking to sources and those carrying the media.
Nice to know my taxpayer money is going to fund breaches of copyright! However, then using them to watch tv doesn’t make me feel bad, cos at the end of the day I paid for it!
for those struggling with the question of this thread, here’s my handy d’Hont calculator…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/dhont.xls
Thanks for the comments. There was a project to have a joint BBC-ITV production company for local news, perhaps jointly with regional papers with web stuff, but they couldn’t agree on the economics. I can’t say I’m a fan of regional news either, and wonder if the future isn’t web-based micro-area news - but I’m a bit reluctnat to see a BBC monopoly.
I see the smears are beginning…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1186940/Mole-blew-whistle-MP-expenses-swashbuckler-7million-trail-debt.html
432.Rod, Conway had the whip withdrawn from him, he is no longer a Conservative MP, but an independent.
Its getting a bit late for a poll ?
438 not sure any removal by the electorate in bracknell or bromsgrove is happening!
Labour have never won either of those seats and LDs last won bracknell in 1906!
OK thats a lie it didnt exist then…
442 yes LDs should be wrapped up next year - new leader = Cable = only LD left cheerio Lembit!!!
for those struggling with the question on this thread, here’s my handy d’Hont calculator.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/dhont.xls
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1186951/Cameron-orders-thieving-toad-aide-resign–pressure-mounts-Andrew-MacKays-MP-wife-quit-too.html
Cameron orders Mackay to quit.
NickMP, if the BBC stopped providing regional news it would create a bigger audience for ITV regional news and increase their advertising revenue.
The savings to the BBC would reduce the licence fee as well.
418
Really! just shows what you know, not a lot I’ve noticed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rape_of_Nanking_(book)
Try reading Chang’s book, I have, tears stained everypage, I’ve read ‘em all, nothing prepares you for the contents of that book, and I mean nothing, you’ll never read anything like it, and I mean nothing.
The divinity of the Emperor was the main reason why the Japanese behaved like they did.
445 - Complete Smear fest.
Love the bit about “close to senior Tories”. Oh I bet the Tories are really happy this info has been leaked, they had a 20 point lead in the polls, now looking like going less than 10!
445 - James, I have to say, as someone who has had business dealings with Mr Wick in the past…. they’re not smears.
Finding out he was involved in this affair has significantly changed my view of the whole thing.
446 - Rod’s a bit like Tim, truth and reality of much lower importance then the narative they try to push.
449 didnt understand that!
Can’t we have proper FPTP voting - the only fair way???
Eric Joyce may owe CGT…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1186953/This-conversation-cost-160-000–First-MP-claim-1m-admits-failed-pay-capital-gains-tax-homes.html
The agenda has definately swithced to who is leaving.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6350604.ece
446. Only anoraks know that - he will be referred to as former Tory MP Derek Conway…
Whats an IEP account account? I read it in:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5375138/MPs-expenses-Derek-Conway-claimed-for-office-270-miles-from-constituency.html
By the way NP please exclude yourself from the rants against Labour MPs earlier!
443. The beeb don’t get it. There are already more ways of viewing their output than they can control and technology will ensure that there will be even more in the near future. Yet still they act as if they can trace, threaten or prosecute anyone who doesn’t toe their line. It’s silly, because they patently can’t, all they’ll do is p1ss off the customers more than they do already.
437: entertainingly crap article on the BBC there - compare the first sentence with the last two. An illustration of the maxim: “Always reasd a tabloid story from the bottom up - that’s where they hide the facts”…
From the Times article;
[Tory] Party whips estimate that a further 35 MPs, mainly over the age of 60, will shortly announce their retirement.
“Gosh lauding Japan, hmmm lets see now, probably one of the most cruel states in history”
Says the Mao Tse-Tung apologist…
418
Just in case you can’t be bothered to click the link, here’s a flavour.
The book depicted in detail the killing, torture, and rape that occurred during the Nanking Massacre. Chang listed and described the kinds of torture that were visited upon the residents, including live burials, mutilation, “death by fire”, “death by ice”, and “death by dogs”. Based on the testimony of a survivor of the massacre, Chang also described a killing contest amongst a group of Japanese soldiers to determine who could kill the fastest.[20] On the rape that occurred during the massacre, Chang wrote that “certainly it was one of the greatest mass rapes in world history.” She estimated that the number of women raped ranged from twenty thousand to as many as eighty thousand,[21] and stated that women from all classes were raped, including Buddhist nuns.[22] Furthermore, rape occurred in all locations and at all hours,[23] and women both very young and very old were raped.[24] Not even pregnant women were spared, Chang wrote, and that after gang rape, Japanese soldiers “sometimes slashed open the bellies of pregnant women and ripped out the fetuses for amusement”.[25] Not all rape victims were women, according to the book, Chinese men were sodomized and forced to perform repulsive sexual acts.[26] Some were forced to commit incest—fathers to rape their own daughters, brothers their sisters, sons their mothers.[27]
from wiki.
Stable monarchy, of course, it is.
460. just reminds people cameron is willing to disipline corrupt mps.
462. Do I trust what the beeb say?
About as much as I trust MPs with their promises of a referendum.
435 I don’t think it is that bad. When the report says he knows top Tories but refused to name them - it sounds like they are suggesting he is making it up.
465 - And yet teachers in China being tortured and killed seems to be taken by you as a humorous little episode.
Hypocrite.
459.”RodCrosby says:
23/5/2009 at 10:21 pm
446. Only anoraks know that - he will be referred to as former Tory MP Derek Conway…”
Desperate. The media will also be reminded that he was sacked by Cameron a long time ago….
Anyway, I cannot get excited about this daily ritual anymore. I think the initial positive narrative for the Telegraph, and the idea that its doing a public service will change.
452. What a pathetic load of old Bollocks. I lived in Japan for a few months in the 90s. They are a great and fascinating people.
e.g. talking of militarism, Japan is probably unique as a country, in that it once voluntarily and almost completely disarmed itself, in the Hideyoshi Sword Hunt.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sword_hunt
Your analysis is typically trivial, jejune and simplistic.
Isn’t it odd how Rod always siezes on the Tory wrong-doers (even when they’re not even Tories) but never posts about the Labour and Lib-Dem troughers? And then he expects us to take his “independent swingback analysis” seriously. Rod is no differant to most of the other posters on here - A spinner. All-be-it an anti conservative one, rather than pro Labour or Lib-Dem.
Big story developing in the Sunday times. It suggests Culture Secretary Burnham used expenses allowance to launder a housing profit and thereby avoid tax.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6350561.ece
439 - details of the Gordon Westminster seat
http://www.alba.org.uk/nextge/gordon.htm
the SNP candidate for Gordon Richard Thomson has his own blog
http://scotsandindependent.blogspot.com/
I would actually be pleased if Kirkbride went as well - what has she done in the last 12 years anyway other than employ her folks?
The political parties should be glad to get rid of some of the crap in them!
It could be just my interpretation but it sounds like the Times is saying we need an Autumn election because the Government is useless but Cameron needs tile to dump his chaff.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6350298.ece
EDIT: I agree.
472. Rod is morphing into Tim I’m afriad. I was taken in by his independent claims but not any more.
Good to see some more of the Scottish MPs being featured by the Telegraph. Is it Eric Joyce tomorrow? He is the most expensive backbencher
473 - Watch him get away, in the current mood, unless it is £x,000 spent on something outrageous, they seem to get away with it. The mob don’t like / don’t want to understand “complex” fiddles like Maude’s for instance or having the Charities Minister have a free lodger who is the head of a major UK Charity.
No unless it is £2k on a moat, or £5k on gates, actual fraud / tax dodging goes under the rader. The BBC “fiddle list” didn’t even have the CBeebies on it! (who lets just remind everybody on 2 separate occasions tried to claim 4x the amount of the interest on their mortgage! How do you accidently claim 4x your mortgage interest? 2x, can claim oh woophs both put in claims, but both 2x the mortgage interest amount).
471
I would refer you to 465.
454 One point missed in this whole sorry saga of MP’s Expenses is that the Government has yet again managed to lose confidential data from what should be a highly secure source. In this case it looks like rather than a simple data extract they have lost a complete system or database. The Poynter report last year on the loss of child benefit data appears to have been ignored. Poynter said at the time
As regrettable as the Child Benefit data loss incident was, one positive may yet flow from it. It may provide the burning platform for these transformations, recognising it as an imperative rather than a luxury.
Obviously these words have not been taken in and acted upon.
472. I hate all parties - especially the one who happens to be in the lead.
What other rational position is there?
477
Its desperation as it sinks in that Gordo is a do nothing Prime Minister who cant sack his people or they’ll sack him. A catch 22 situation of Gordo’s own making. Never was it truer… Weak Weak Weak.
474 the correct link - I don’t have permission to edit
http://www.alba.org.uk/nextge/gordon.html
I guess there is no poll tonight then?
475 a scary night out in Bromsgrove?!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01359/julie_kirkbride_1359216c.jpg
Nice graphic Morris. I think the BNP could still pick up a north west seat coming sixth, eg, with a spread like this:
Con 28, Lab 24, LD 15, UKIP 10, GR 9, BNP 8.
In this eg, it’s the low LD figure which does it, with the UKIP and Green figures being largely irrelevant.
There are loads of permutations, obviously, but I’d be surprised if they got less than 8 in the NW, given they 6.4 last time, and the number of votes they poll is unlikely to go down.
So, IMO, Griffin will likely be an MEP and punters are wise not to take you up on your bet.
So, no poll tonight?
482. So if I went back to the threads in summer 2007 when Labour last had a lead I would find you posting anti Labour stuff all the time, would I?
(keep in mind I might actually do this tomorrow
)
481 - fitaloon - agreed. One does sort of feel it’s got to the point that the government actually needs to demonstrate it has changed & improved basic processes before we allow it to retain *any* kind of sensitive personal data. If that means reverting to paper only records, so be it.
478 - see 457
Probably Malcolm Bruce’s biggest safety device is that his main opposition the SNP and Tory parties have been relatively evenly split in Gordon. However the “Alex Salmond” effect may work for or against him, depending on whether the Westminster Gordon voters decide the SNP or Tories have the best chance of chucking Malcolm Bruce out.
479. Not sure that’s it. I think the DT is just getting through the huge deluge of info they had and when they’ve got through it all things will focus back on the most serious bits - the actual fraud-seeming type stuff. That’s my guess anyway.
476. Interesting editorial. The clamour for an election is going to keep on growing now. I would imagine it will be the only story in town through the dog days of late July and August. Gord will find it incredibly hard to resist….
480. The Japanese behaved abominably in China.
The Germans behaved abominably in World War 2.
The English behaved abominably in Ireland.
The French were a disgrace in Algeria.
The Khmer Rouge killed a third of their own people - the Cambodians. Etc etc etc etc etc.
Lesson? Humans are abominable, especially when given the absolute power of conquest. It has little to do with monarchy. If anything, the overthrow of monarchy has often led to the worst abuses.
SallyC says: at 10:21 pm “The agenda has definitely switched to who is leaving. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6350604.ece”
A pity that the Sunday Times and Professor Rallings gets one fact wrong.
“McCartney’s retirement brings to 38 the total number of Labour MPs who have announced their decision to go, for a range of reasons.”
No it brings the total to at least 47 including Clare Short. Why are our papers so bad with political facts?
486. She is doomed as was her husband. The poison is bi-directional between Mackay and Kirkbride.
The locals will make her life a missery i have no doubt.
Stupid idiots - another case of power going to their heads, they employ relatives and go from there!
Maybe they have done nothing wrong but we live in lean times - the people will not tolerate such activity.
495. Yes - lesson is avoid being conquered at all costs - encourage patriotism and be massively armed at all times.
498 - si pacem vis, para bellum.
497 martin - perhaps you and me should form a ‘new Conservative Party’
Policies include:
No spongers
No spanners
No hunting ban on LDs
First?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/22/gordon-brown-hazel-blears-expenses
Gordon doesn’t get it. It seems he has now given the green light to Hazel to stay on. So there will be no scarifices in the cabinet - except Jackie? Is he hoping we just all forget.
479 Yes the Andy Burnham Story may be a little complex for the Public but the suggested involvement of a Minister and the Fees Office in tax evasion/avoidance may put Brown into some difficulty given his stance on H. Blears.
502 - Just shows how desperately, pitifully weak his position is.
502 - He has dug himself another massive hole for absolutely no reason! His hatred of dissenters / temper have got the better of him again!
487. Can’t happen, check your d’Hont calculator…
502. A few of them being invited to an interview with Mr Plod might get him to change his mind.
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1186975/Browns-candidate-Speaker-Right-wing-turncoat-hated-Tory-MPs.html
Brown just cannot help himself can he..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1186975/Browns-candidate-Speaker-Right-wing-turncoat-hated-Tory-MPs.html
Labour sources have told The Mail on Sunday that Mr Brown believes Mr Bercow would be a good Speaker - and, crucially, would cause major problems for Mr Cameron if he wins the next Election.
487. Can’t happen - check the d’Hont calculator
How often in the next weeka re we going to hear Brown tell us he is getting on with the job and the Tories are the “do nothing” party? I suspect we are also going to start hearing more of the “class warfare” rubbish which was so successful for Labour in Crewe and Nantwich and then no doubt we shall see the Hereditary Socialist principles come to the fore if Paul Martin MSP (no doubt soon to be the Hon Paul Martin MSP) for Springburn attempts to become Paul Martin MP for Springburn and other bits now making up Glasgow North East.
503 - I don’t think it is just a matter of being too complex, people aren’t listening other than to the sound of £x spent on this or that.
Any reason of if it,
a) was within the letter and spirit of the rules (but an example of the rules requiring change e.g food) vs
b) within the rules, but against the spirit vs
c) against the rules and the spirit vs
d) fraud
just isn’t there.
Mr Conway’s more surprising claims include £160 for a pigskin wallet from the Smythson luxury goods store on Bond Street, £165 for a rollerball pen from Mont Blanc in Sloane Square, and £84 for an engineer to retune the television at his London home.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5375138/MPs-expenses-Derek-Conway-claimed-for-office-270-miles-from-constituency.html
Yes Ave it - your last post on the last thread!
I was watching the Alan Clarke Diaries on UK history today and you remind me of his precent historical quality! Like Alan you recognise the imperitive of the people being right! Kirkbride is doomed - DOOMED! No way will she get through the period before the next election without being removed!
The UK wide electorate in my opinion still wants Labour out but the Tories may sacrifice seats if stupid folk remain!
512
What part of the “Conway is no longer a Conservative MP” don’t you understand?
Sky: Tory MPs MacKay and Kirkbride accused of another abuse…
The next theme will be Brown’s weakness and/or double standards. For all the bad press this past few days, Cameron has set the bar for Brown with the removal of Mackay.
The Cabinet reshuffle will be looked at through those eyes.
Brown should now ditch Hoon, Burnham, Blears, Smith, Milliband D, McNulty, Darling ……
510 for those of you not in the know, Glasgow North East makes Glasgow Eaast look posh!!
At least Glasgow East did have some very middle class districts. Glasgow North East is just one big hellhole (and I speak as one born in the constituency though thankfully never lived there).
It was once the home of great railway works and other industries but now it is a dumping ground for asylum seekers, anti-social tenants and has very little going for it.
There are many very decent hardworking people living in the likes of Springburn but they are swamped by the benefit scroungers etc.
512. They were all rejected Rod!
I was surprised as i thought he would go nuts and put the max in this year but they said he did not!
Not like the pious LD who claim they have done nothing wrong yet claim for just about everything!
514. He will always be “disgraced former Tory MP”
518 No LD MPs soon!!!!
519 Rod that will be in the same way you are a would be psephologist I suppose
more expenses claims investigations - this looks serious if true
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2510018.0.scots_mp_claimed_2000_for_electrical_work_carried_out_by_phantom_firm.php
519. if brown had any courage we’ll be hearing about plenty of disgraced former cabinate labour mps soon.
anyway if I cant get my wireless connection to work upstairs in the other part of the house I will say goodnight to you all.
519 And Wormwood Scrubs will be full of “disgraced former Labour Ministers”
Easterross will the media camp out at Malcom Bruce’s home and quiz him and his wife over their porcine behaviour?
509 Thanks, used the wrong formula!
But I see it’s still possible for sixth place to win a seat (on, eg 8%) provided first place gets eg 23% (which is unlikely, even this time). So, it probably is a battle for fifth place.
520. They are all doomed (LD) and the incumbancy bullshit has finally been blown apart with regard to LD!
I am glad the dodgy MPs have been exposed and the DT will continue to expose them. Some have been too happy doing the minimum for too long, claiming expenses and saying they do not get paid enough.
A new more dynamic set of westminister inmates are required!
Its a bit like big brother without the nude streaks! Caroline Flint come on down!!! 
522 Marcia, if true it couldnt happen to a nicer man. Robin Cook must be turning in his grave at the thought of the sort of MP his election agent has turned into. Cook the maverick replaced by Devine the hack.
512 — A pigskin wallet for a troughing tory designed by Camerons wife?
Great imagery.
Makes a change from the OKA tat I suppose
526 I think that would be better directed to either Fitaloon or Christina. I am not sure where Bruce lives. Having held Gordon for 22 years, he has passed his sell-by date.
Anyway off upstairs to try this damned wireless connection which has been playing up all day. Possibly the atmospherics as we have had thunderclap type rain this evening without the thunder. Gardens are desperately needing it after weeks of dry weather.
A *pigskin* wallet? Oh dear. It’s almost as if these guys are doing their damnedest to fleece us in the most hysterically ludicrous way, so as to engineer their own downfall.
Moats, duck islands, a private police force, £8000 TVs. If you put this detail into a TV screenplay about politicians’ avarice it would be rejected as far fetched by the producer.
Yet it is all true. And we are still only ONE THIRD OF THE WAY THROUGH OUR MPs.
I reckon we have to face facts. Most MPs, left right and centre, are sleazy gluttons at best, and outright criminals at worst. None of them deserves office.
Get Rid.
522 Livingston J Devine (LAB)
Sunday Herald GAIN.
532. SeanT
Here is i hoping for the biggest clear out ever!
Filthy currupt f*ckers! Hopefully the Tories will bring new rules in the first week that are retrospective to the election date in terms of cleaning up the whole system.
528 yes LDs = MOB (move on baby!)
LDs hahahahaha
Cornwall 2010 LDs 0 Con 6!!!!!!!!!!
Evening all
I think SallyC has made the most important point tonight. The fact is that the narrative cannot stay for ever on increasingly silly revelations about MPs expenses, most of which now seem to be perfectly above board, within the rules as they were.
OK, so the parties chuck out the worst offenders, then what?
The Times editorial shows how this is going to develop - once again showing that Cameron was ahead of the curve. The narrative of ‘unclean parliament’ -> ‘time for change’ -> ‘election’ is a compelling one.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Brown will actually call an early election, of course. But it does embed the ‘election = time for change’ message perfectly.
534 yes we are the Vanguard of reform and when we come in, thats it for unpleasant parties such as BNP, LD and Lab!!!
536 - Yeah it shows that Cameron is like a Chess Grand Master, always thinking 8 moves ahead.
Not a flattering write up of the Glasgow North East seat
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2510022.0.michael_martins_glasgow_fighting_political_battles_and_media_bigotry.php
Anybody got any thoughts as to why the parties/House of commons authorities dont just get the information out there now? Short sharp shock and safety in numbers rather than the drip drip drip treatment. The iffy ones must know what is going to happen hwy delay the agony.
Also just read up on Bercow. What a berk. Its a hell of a journey from String up Mandela posters posters to New Labour wannabe.
BTW If Rod and tim really wish to face up to reality, rather than silly points about insignificant ex-Tories, they might like to turn their attention to the interesting question of how Andy Burnham is going to explain himself.
537. Hopefully - At least the Tories are de-lousing. Non of the other parties seem to be doing this. Painfull in the short-term but in a years time the louses will be terminal parisites for Labour/LD.
This is a bizarre expense claim…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1186978/MP-trio-tried-impeach-Tony-Blair-Iraq—using-expenses.html
534. Indeed so, Martin. I am almost beyond caring who wins the next election, just as long as the bulk of the Manure Parliament is tipped into the midden.
What a f*cking dreadful ten years it has been. Iraq, the Great Recession, and now the Shaming of British Democracy. Ugh. End. Enuff.
FWIW I’m getting the feeling that Brown may not be able to hold out until next year for his GE. This Expenses stuff feels somewhat terminal, to me.
539.Marcia, which big housing estate in Glasgow is over looked by Bearsden, Easterross did tell me, but I have forgotten? Is it part of this constituency?
508. My main objection to Bercow becoming speaker is -
he’s younger than me!
It was bad enough feeling past it when Hague became Tory leader but being older than the Speaker …
I know this point has been made before but I think it’s worth repeating. The way things are going Cameron could end up immeasurably strengthened by Expensesgate.
By showing firm leadership, he gets to clear the Parliamentary Conservative Party of dead wood, “de-Toffs” it in the process, enters the General Election campaign with a “clean” team and has more authority over his party and it’s future direction than was the case beforehand.
Does he yet need to take a still firmer line with Maude, Lansley and Gove to reap the full benefits of his stable cleaning activities?
540. NW Leics MP has owned up before being exposed.
http://www.thisisleicestershire.co.uk/news/MP-admits-lack-judgement-claims/article-1017457-detail/article.html
Won’t be going down well.
543. Shame B@stard breath was not taken to court. Blair did alright in his first term but 2001 onwards was a car crash!
545. That would be Drumchapel, Christina. It’s not in Glasgow NE.
Oh wow, just seen this in the Times editorial,
“This government does not deserve more time, however. It is clinging desperately to power, having lost any sense of direction. The alternative to an autumn election is months of damaging drift. The deep wounds of the expenses scandal will fester if voters are not given the chance to register their views. Above all, an early election will give us the opportunity for a new start. Rarely have we needed it more.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article6350298.ece
That is the first I can remember the Times saying something quite as cutting as that i.e even though there are troughers on all sides, getting Team Gordo out is essential.
546 - My main objection would be the rationale behind it. Plus it would be blatantly obvious that it would be a party line vote. It is why I think a supermajority would be beneficial for the Speaker, say two thirds of the House or that. It would guarantee widespread support and not a straight party line breakdown.
Changing the subject entirely, in a historic vote tonight, the General ASsembly of the Church of Scotland has upheld the right of an Aberdeen church to appoint an openly gay minister as its Parish Minister at Queen’s Cross.
547 - good point.
Mrs Cameron does not just do pigskin wallets there’s snakeskin and lizardskin too
545 Christina no you are talking about Drumchapel or Maryhill. Bearsden is at the western fringe of Glasgow
540. “Anybody got any thoughts as to why the parties/House of commons authorities dont just get the information out there now?”
I’d imagine they’re in shock.
544. My feeling too - i think Autumn at the latest.
Brown has no mandate and the only thing putting it off is making sure the MPs pass the sleaze test, or a new candidate put in place.
In Labours interest they have to go this year otherwise even more Labour MPs will lose and we are looking at Labour at 150 - 200 now at best! Leave it till next year and they will be like the LD!
Hopefully the LD would be on 30 as well so i could daily rub it in to Mike, Mark Senior and other LD!!! 
550.Thanks Alan, was staying with friends in Bearsden a couple years ago, got dragged out to the garden to watch the polis helicopter circling with spotlights on. Was told it could be like Gotham city at the weekend.
554 - Here we go with the Sam Cameron smearing, direct from the bunker?
549. Very true. If the obituary of New Labour concentrated exclusively on 1997-2001 then, to be fair, the verdict would be Pretty Good: they ran a tight economy, enacted some sensible reforms (BoE independence, FOInformation, minimum wage, etc), and did nothing stupid.
But something went Very Wrong thereafter - Iraq, the economy, public spending, Europe, immigration, increasing authoritarianism - it all fell apart, and how.
Strange. Was it cause Blair took his eye off the ball, trying to be a post 9/11 hero - and thereby let Brown f*ck it all up? Or was the terrible failure more systemic?
Either way, they went from being the best Labour government since Atlee to being the worst government in modern British history, and that is a startling accomplishment, worthy of investigation.
555.Easterross, thanks as well. I did say that you told me which one it was, but I had forgotten.
543 yes all about the plaid cymru demonstrating the value - tw*ts
551 i think an Oct election could be on except that gordon will want to hang onto the end!!!
Thank you Richard
I think the voters will be increasingly looking at the solution not the problem. However, MPs keeping their heads down in the hope of not being noticed should remember that people will always be interested in the antics of their own and/or local MP[s].
We have had links posted by marcia and woody tonight which illustarte the point very well. Seperate news cycles are running locally and will continue to run if they are not dealt with.
559 - Just ignore the pitiful attention seeker.
560 - However, don’t forget even before 2001, the “change / modernisation” agenda of public services was toned right down, when they dumped Frank Field report root and branch. When in fact, it was the time when it needed to happen, and much of what Field suggested was fairly sensible.
It is depressing that Brown can’t get past his urge to warp everything into the greatest partisan advantage.
We need a speaker who is supported by all parties, who can lead and can learn from past mistakes. The party doesn’t matter, the person does.
With his silly penchant for party tricks he will simply damage parliament further. Another ‘whipped’ election as we had from Labour for Martin will do incredible damage.
When will the idiot ever learn a simple lesson. He would be stronger if he defended far less, showed he saw the bigger picture and demonstrated beyond doubt that he was working in the country’s and democracy’s interest and not his own.
553.That is where I used to stay Easterross, they are very metropolitan in the Queenscross area, being the West End and all. Roger has relatives that stay there, so say no more.
557 ‘Hopefully the LD would be on 30 as well’
Hahahaha! They’ll be lucky!
LDs =
TEE HEE HEE560. The big cock up Labour did in that first term was the creation of the Financial Services Authority! That was put in train early on in the 1997 -2001 term.
Maybe if they had just made the B of E independent and not mest about with other measures it would be alright.
Co-incindetly I believe Cameron will axe alot of Tory MPs if shown to be crap/on the take or scaming expenses.
560. The big c0ck up Labour did in that first term was the creation of the F1nancial S€rvices Auth0rity! That was put in train early on in the 1997 -2001 term.
Maybe if they had just made the B of E ind€pendent and not mest about with other measures it would be alright.
Co-incindetly I believe Cameron will axe alot of Tory MPs if shown to be crap/on the take or scaming €xpenses.
548 Woody - Labour look certain to lose that seat anyway - isn’t it your neck btw?
548: £215 for a dvd player? WTF, they are £18 in asda, and have been for at least three to four years.
Some interesting stuff going on at ConHom tonight. The mood has shifted, and as I said earlier, people want a GE. They are now beginning to be put off by the continued daily ritual of humiliation from the Telegraph. The voters get it, the Parliament gets it, the system stinks and needs to be changed. But I don’t think that the public want their whole democratic system destroyed in search of a short term Telegraph circulation boost.
They are showing arrogance, and are now getting it badly wrong. Pulling Nadine’s blog was a mistake, she judged the mood better than they did it would seem.
573 - Another B&O job I wonder? I am still wondering about the £600+ for 2 digi boxes! They must have been gold plated.
570. They certainly would be lucky on 30!
10 or a yellow F*cking Taxi is more like it!
I was amused looking at images of LD MPs today the Yellow taxi came up!
Plus the fortune tellar and even vince cable as a green monster!!! You look up Vince cable MP and that chap from star wars comes up - Yoda 
571. Cameron needs to chop out as many dodgy MPs as possible. The process will be extremely painful, but it is necessary - like an amputation.
And when it gets too depressing, the newly one-legged Tory party can gaze across and see the patient in the neighbouring bed, Labour, which has to lose both legs and an arm, and possibly a syphilitic nose, but is still pretending that the gangrene is just a rash.
Then the Tories can limp to victory.
534. I am noticing that on the canvassing, general hostility exists to all political parties, but our supporters (conservatives) are openly hostile, they are, to be frank, disappointed in us, they arent leaving us to vote for others en masse, but they just want to express how they feel, and to give them a bit of space.
I sense despair that we ahve the worst government in living history, and the opposition MPs are troughing it just as bad.
And, most important of all, WTF is a wisteria? Obviously only people with big houses know of such exotic things.
I was struck by comments from Michael Brown the Independent journalist and ex Cleethorpes MP who was swept away in 1997. He said that Gordon Brown is now trapped in a similar situation to the much more popular John Major in 1996. By holding on until May next year, Brown will lose at least 1 more seat per month so another 10-20 Labour MPs will lose their seats by not going to the country this summer and that is before any expenses effect.
I never cease to be amazed by the amounts for the individual items in the MPs claims. Clearly in London they just pay rip-off prices.
At Christmas 2007 my little town cottage was completely ruined by a half inch split in a newish copper pipe leading into the cold water tank in the attic. The insurers told me to dispose of ALL contents of the 3 bedroom house and whilst I managed to salvage quite a lot which I didnt claim for, I still needed to claim for the carpets, entire kitchen white goods and furnishings in 5 rooms.
I was delighted when the insurers offered me £7000 having submitted an inventory totalling £7300. This included carpets, cooker, fridge, freezer, washing machine, TV and video, beds, sofas etc etc and my inventory quoted renewal prices taken from 6 popular websites like M and S, Argos, House of Bath.
I just couldn’t imagine spending £150 on a handful of cushions. £5 each out of Matalan, preferably in the sale is more like it.
578 Gaz, wisteria is a vine type plant which you will find growing up the outside walls of most pre Victorian houses. Like virginia creeper, it can be very colourful but needs to be watched because it wraps itself round things. I have it climbing up a downpipe and regularly have to clip the top to prevent it crawling into the eaves under the guttering.
The local media up and down the country is more likely to finish the careers of many backwoods MPs. Julie Kirkbride cannot survive tonights further revelations.
Last night Nadine Dorries comments about the expenses issue possibly leading to the suicide of an MP was rubbished as hype.
Interestingly on last night’s news on radio Scotland, I listened to Rosemary McKenna the Labour MP for Cumbernauld and Bishopbriggs talking. She was asked about Nadine’s comments and much to my surprise she bluntly confirmed that she agreed with Nadine Dorries summary of the situation and that there are worries about the mental state of a handful of MPs.
For anyone who is unfamiliar with this lady, she is the ex-Labour Provost of Cumbernauld and a stalwart of Old Labour, far more in the Barbara Castle than Shirley Williams mould. She is retiring next year and it did make me think who could be one of the MPs she was talking about.
Proof that Lib Dems can come up with some truly insane policies…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1186986/Now-drinkers-wait-post-office-style-queues-local-pub.html
As can the EU
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1186957/Sheer-lumenacy-EU-replace-watts-continental-lumens.html
582: doesn’t the lighting rule merely require lights *also* carry a lumen rating?
I’m hardly a Europhile - but this is a little bit of a mountain out of a molehill? And doesn’t it reflect the fact that we’re moving from incandescents to LEDs, CFLs?
Of course, the market should be free to decide, but this is hardly a great example of the EU run wild…
Don’t forget michael brown took bribes as a Tory mp
581. Easterross, sorry to be a pedant again, but McKenna is my MP (sadly) and the constituency is called Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East (Kirkintilloch West had a narrow escape). Old Labour would not be my description of her, except in the ‘machine politician’ sense. She’s pretty much a leadership sycophant.
SNP MEPs reject £10,000 pay rise whilst the other three parties take it.
A game changer north of the border? The response of the other three parties isn’t gping to endear them to voters.
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/Main-party-MEPs-will-take.5297694.jp
LABOUR, Conservative and LibDem candidates hoping to become Scotland’s MEPs will accept an immediate £10,000 pay rise if they are elected to Brussels next week.
The huge increase will take their salaries to more than £73,000 – 25 per cent higher than their MSP colleagues in Edinburgh.
Their stance contrasts with the two SNP candidates who will stick with the present pay salary of £63,291, and turn dADVERTISEMENTown the pay rise
However the candidates from the three other parties last night criticised the SNP candidates, claiming their own wages could easily soon fall if the euro suddenly collapsed.
You know it is bad when Brown is voluntarily seeking his predecessors advice…
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brown-calls-blair-in-to-no-10-for-secret-talks-as-crisis-mounts-1690125.html
I wonder if the doom mongers will be wrong and Mike Smithson’s theory about Cameron will be more of a factor.
‘# David Cameron has more mentions than Gordon Brown on Twitter for the first time since we launched the tweetometer (just over a month ago).about 5 hours ago from Tweetminster’.
Just so people know, the problems on the site are the result of a malfunctioning firewall at 1and1 (our hosting company).
They are fixing this right now, and hopefully we should be up again soon.
578. “And, most important of all, WTF is a wisteria?”
It’s a climbing plant that flowers around now. It has big purplish clusters of small flowers.
There’s nothing exotic about it really.
562. “If the obituary of New Labour concentrated exclusively on 1997-2001 then, to be fair, the verdict would be Pretty Good”
Music to my ears. Makes me feel less of a klutz for voting for them back then.
Malcolm Bruce wrote the following last April on his website These allowances have been established because MPs do work long hours, are away from home for four days a week for much of the year and travel extensively around their constituencies and between London and Westminster.
To do this they need staff support, a place to stay in London and the means to rent and run an office in their constituency.
So why was he claiming for a office outside his constituency?
robert I have been having problems this afternoon getting the site on my iPhone. It loads OK but there are blank spaces in blocks scattered down each page, both in the main text and comments. I found sometimes that by enlarging or reducing text size that sometimes I could get the hidden text. But after the empty block the text would then start to disappear with starting and ending points around the top line of a comment.
I thought this might be my phone but seven other sites including newspaper sites and Guido each with long comment threads came up perfectly. So it is something in your site not my phone i would guess. To be sure I have used a backup for the phone and the problem persists but only for PB.com.
This problem has never occurred before.
As I am about to start one of my long rambling journeys across Europe and we have a political hot spot coming up I am selfishly concerned as my main tool for the internet when travelling is my phone.
This is getting really stupid now,
“Yesterday, the IoS established that Boris Johnson, the London Mayor, claimed more than £80,000 in second-home expenses over four years when he was an MP, even though his constituency was within 50 miles of Westminster, as we reveal today.”
I would say, yes you probably can commute either way, but the ACA is exactly for this situation. 50 miles isn’t even in the Pickles category of where it is possible to commute in and out with real ease.
Claiming ACA for a constituency home 50 miles away from London is perfectly reasonable according to the current rules, both the letter and spirit of the rules.
Interesting snippet in The Times for those with a position on McNulty’s housing expenses. They say that the “second home (is) owned by his parents”. The way it’s been described before, I’d always assumed it was McNulty’s, with his parents staying there.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6350491.ece
594 - If we go by the IoS standard of troughing, I would reckon every MP who has ever claimed ACA is a trougher!
594. “Claiming ACA for a constituency home 50 miles away from London is perfectly reasonable”
I would say it’s reasonable. There’s no direct line from Henley to Paddington so the commute (if by train) would be pretty unpleasant. Of course, there are plenty of people who have worse commutes. I’d file it under if-we-have-time-to-fret-over-this-we-don’t-have-enough-problems though.
597 - Maybe they expected him to ride his bike both ways!
We have MP’s claimed for non-existent mortgages, doing all sorts of “tax efficient” planning, house flipping, claiming for everything from £9k tv’s to fancy toasters, and the IoS what to pin something on Teflon Boris.
Nigel Farage may be in for some trouble according to the Observer.
During a debate about Europe at the Foreign Press Association - which was discreetly taped by the hosts - Farage was asked by former Europe minister Denis MacShane what he had received in non-salary expenses and allowances since becoming an MEP in 1999.
“It is a vast sum,” Farage said. “I don’t know what the total amount is but - oh lor - it must be pushing £2 million.” Taken aback, MacShane then joked: “Is it too late to become an MEP?”
Farage insisted that he had not “pocketed” the money but had used the “very large sum of European taxpayers’ money” to help promote Ukip’s message that the UK should get out of the EU.
“In a telephone call yesterday, the Conservative leader urged MacKay, the MP for Bracknell, to resign to save the political career of his wife Julie Kirkbride, who is also an MP.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6350647.ece
So Cameron is not acting judiciously, but clearly in mala fides…
A sacrifice here saves someone else there, irrespective of culpability…
And when the torch-bearing villagers descend on Bromsgrove, whither Cameron, the perverter of justice?
599 Good. Glad that story’s up and running.
Jeez, 1and1 are famously awful, get another host, pretty much anyone!
3-1 on GE before 2010 at Ladbrokes btw.
And look what Farage has been up to: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/24/mps-expenses-ukip-nigel-farage
Amazing story @600 showing the desperate, criminal, blackmail tactics now adopted by the Tories to extricate themselves from the sh1t, morally equivalent to….
“Bite on the cyanide capsule or we’ll ensure your wife is turned over to the Russians…”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6350647.ece
Far, far worse than the original offences of MacKay or Kirkbride…
603 You’re in to alternative electoral systems aren’t you Rod?
Guardian are floating it here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/may/24/mps-expenses-commons-reform
604. Very encouraging, as long as its not AV+…
Is there some strange fault with the site? tim’s desperately Tory-bashing posts are now labelled as belonging to ‘RodCrosby’…
‘It is understood senior Tories threatened MacKay, 59, by suggesting that if he refused to quit parliament, his wife would be targeted for disciplinary action.
“Andrew has been told in no uncertain terms that he must do the decent thing and announce he is standing down from parliament,” said a Tory source. “If he goes now, Julie will be left alone. If he digs his heels in, life could be made very difficult for her.”’
BLACKMAIL?
Still a criminal offence, AFAIK…
603. I don’t see how you extract that conclusion from that article.
Kirkbride was clearly less compromised than Mackay. If either of them might have survived (I’m assuming she won’t now) then it would have been her. It wouldn’t have been in bad faith to suggest that by resigning Mackay would have helped her cause. (And who knows what was actually said in their conversation.)
I don’t see where your “wife is turned over to the Russians” comes in. That would imply that it was within the power of Cameron to determine what happened to her - ie that the Telegraph was acting on his orders, which it obviously isn’t.
See 607.
607. Ah, I didn’t see that. Yes, that’s not nice.
Change the record Rod. Posting the same article 3-4 times, we can all read and make our own minds up.
“I don’t see how you extract that conclusion from that article.”
Understandable when you find out his views on other subjects - hHardly a paragon of relaying the truth, on matters from the holocaust and beyond.
If someone is a nutter in one sphere then you can’t trust or believe anything they say. Steer clear.
“I don’t see how you extract that conclusion from that article.”
Understandable when you find out his views on other subjects - hardly a paragon of relaying the truth on certain matters.
If someone is a nutter in one sphere then you can’t trust or believe anything they say. Steer clear.
612. I relay neither truth or lies - I merely question received “wisdoms.”
613 - You degrade this site with your continued presence.
613. “I relay neither truth or lies”
Did you really mean to say that?
614. I was shortlisted as “poster of the year” or some-such last Xmas.
I don’t recall you were even in the make-specks…
615. Probably not. Should it be “nor” instead of “or”, pedant?
617. Good Lord, that didn’t even occur to me.
My point was that you are saying that your posts are not true or false, so you are saying they are utterances with no measurable truth value. I’ll bear this in mind in future.
618. Mere Opinions. Like assholes, everyone’s got one. And they all stink…
616 - Tipster of the year nominee, some of us provide insight not objectionable opinions dressed up as some sort of service. You kid nobody, most likely not even yourself.
The BNP vote in this election is something that I am not completely sure about, although given the state of the economy, confidence in politicians and the likelyhood that a greater number of major party voters will be staying at home for this election, one would expect the BNP vote to go up at this election.
How much it will go up is anyones question, and it may have a lot to do with how well UKIP does. Personally I would rate the BNP’s chances of winning a seat in the North West at least two thirds, in other regions it would obviously be substantially lower.