Big boost for the big three in ICM EU election poll
May 22nd, 2009
CON 30 (+4) LAB 24(+1) LD 18 (+3) UKIP 10(-6)
GRN 9(3) SNP/PC 4(+2) BNP 1(-4) OTH 3(-3)
Could turnout distort the pollsters’ projections?
There’s a new Guardian ICM poll on the June 4th Euro elections out this afternoon which suggests that in spite of everything the main parities are all set for an increase of ten points between them compared with what happened in the last elections five years ago.
This goes very much against other EU election polling that we’ve seen and the general view that the established parties were being hammered by the MPs expense disclosures.
One of the massive challenges for all pollsters with these elections is estimating the impact of turnout. Five years ago this was 38.5% but the elections took place on the same day as the metropolitan borough and London elections and large parts of England saw their turnout increase sharply because of all postal voting.
A week on Thursday the simultaneous elections are broadly confined to the old shire counties where there are either county council or new unitary authority elections. But in the heavily populated conurbations of London, the West and East Midlands, the North West, Yorkshire and the North East the euro elections will be the only voting that is taking place.
My guess is that overall turnout in Britain (excluding NI) will be closer to the 24% that was achieved in 1999 than the 38.5% of five years ago. Interestingly in Scotland last time where no other elections were taking place on the same day the turnout was just over 30%
Such small turnouts add enormously to the challenges facing pollsters and I think we have to treat all the surveys we have seen on this election with some caution.
I’m particularly sceptical of the big drop in BNP support that ICM is suggesting.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
first !!
And I don’t believe BNP figures either (or labour for that matter)
Very strange looking poll - but we live, after all, in interesting times… I am sceptical in particular at the figure for the Greens.
I think this election is entirely unpredictable.
I think that the effect of expense gate is going to be more abstentionsim than switching. So I think you are only going to get diehards voting. That might end up hurting the smaller parties because they are, well smaller.
I hardly think a single percentage point gain from the last poll for Labour can be counted a “Big Boost”.
Is Green up or down 3?
Ahhh up 3
I don’t believe this poll at all. I don’t believe that half the people who say that they are going to vote will vote and I don’t believe that half the people that will vote will decide who to vote for until they get into the polling booth. It’s the danger of polling about something that people treat frivolously.
The poll seems strange to me unless there’s been a huge increase in don’t knows and that somehow has messed up the numbers.
Then again we’re in strange times and almost anything could happen.
“My guess is that overall turnout in Britain (excluding NI) will be closer to the 24% that was achieved in 1999 than the 38.5% of five years ago.”
Not sure I agree, Mike. The 1999 election was held a month after the locals which contributed to the very low turnout. These elections, like those in 2004, coincide with local elections in many areas.
Unless it’s a realisation that for all the idiots, rabid ideologues and outright lunatics that can be found in the main parties, they are more neutalised than they are in the smaller parties.
9 - I would tend to agree more Mike probably top whack turnout will be 30%.
7 I’m a bit sceptical myself, Antifrank, but punters who ignore the polls are a bit like sailors who ignore the wind when they think it is coming from the ‘wrong’ direction.
Batten down the hatches!!! The Greens are coming!!!!!
I imagine there will be much confusion amongst the electorate and I suspect many people will be changing their mind about who to vote for almost on a daily dependent on what further abuse the news brings, what leaflets are received through the door and which politicians/ activists appear on the TV and on the doorstep.
So it is hard to estimate whether turnout will be up or not or make heads or tails of the polls. However, something I don’t think Mike mentioned was that there was a large postal vote experiment last time which some believe pushed up the turnout considerably. Given there is no such experiment this time and everything else that has been going on I agree with Mike turnout will be down. How it will eventually effect the vote share god knows………
re 9. But the point I am making is that far few voters in England will have be taking part in simultaneous elections compared with five years ago. This time they are confined to the less densely populated old shire county area - not the big conurbations. On top of that all-postal voting put on 5% in the regions where the experiment took place in 2004.
See - http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2004/rp04-050.pdf
FPT “Anyone got any thoughts on Widdecombe for speaker.”
Since her name was mentioned I’ve become quite keen on that idea - clean and not likely to be bullied. If it was me she’d be my second choice after Field and not that far behind either.
12 - It’s a fair cop guv. I guess what I’m really saying is that some of the things that are treated as givens on here may not be givens at all. I would treat opinion polls on the EU election with unusual caution.
For this election I’m a Lib Dem / Green floating voter. I don’t think that’s a combination I’ve ever floated between before - I shall chalk that one up to experience.
re 13. I did mention the 2004 all-postal voting in my piece.
The BNP figure is a bit ludicrous but the other numbers do not surprise me greatly. I think the Greens are quite well placed in the current political situation - they are a fluffier repository for protest votes than the two other “main” minor parties.
Ed Balls is going on Any Questions tonight (with Ken Clarke, Simon Hughes, and Caroline Lucas).
There is a turnout market on William Hill.
Less than 30% 2/1
30-34.99% 11/4
35-38.83% 2/1
Over 38.83% 4/1
Like our host, I reckon the winning bet is at the low end of this.
15 MrJones
It won’t be Widdecomble.
Although she personally is clean on expenses she has consistently been on the wrong side of the reform argument.
19, Balls by name, balls by nature!
Con gain Airstrip One!
17. Apologies Mike I missed it.
re 20. I got on at <30% with William Hill at 5/1 with a covering bet at 11/4 on 30-34.99%.
I think I am a certain winner.
Interesting to compare with last two polls (Most recent first, ICM/YouGov/Comres):
Con 30, 28, 26
Lab 24, 20, 21
LD 18, 14, 14
UKIP 10, 15, 16
BNP 1, 4, 7
Green 9, 11, ? [but according to the article, ahead of BNP]
Make of it what you will.
24 - I didn’t see it early enough obviously, but I have gone for the same two bands at the inferior odds given above. I was quite happy with that until I saw your post! 5-1 for what I would make the favourite…
14 - But if I remember correctly, the turnout for County Council elections way back before they started coinciding with the General Election all the time, used to be relatively high compared with other local elections. So although not as many areas are affected, the impact may be fairly big.
I agree the turnout will be down on 2004, but my guess is it will be closer to that figure (38.5%) than the 1999 figure (24%). Perhaps 1 in 3 is my finger in the air guess.
I like this poll but I think it’s a rogue.
28. That’s the opposite of Mike’s golden rule. It’s usually ‘I don’t like this poll - therefore it’s a rogue!’
The full data tables from last night’s Populus/ITN poll are on the Populus website . This poll is NOT comparable to the Populus/Times . Apart from having a sample of 1,000 as opposed to the normal 1,500 the past vote weightings for the 3 major parties are all to lower levels than those used in the Times poll . I am unclear as to the exact effect of this on the final headline figures but my instinct is that the minor parties will have benefitted at the expense of the 3 major parties .
Very odd poll indeed, it is as if it has been done in an expenses scandal vacuum.
But it is also odd in that the figures are not like with like.
It is mid - May 2009 vs June 4th 2004.
UKIP, for example have a traditional surge in the last two weeks.
I cannot believe the BNP figure nor the thought that the big three have all gained against last week.
The Greens have gone up, as can be seen on the ground, but so have UKIP.
Odd, odd, odd.
ICM a rogue poll. Has there ever been such a thing?? !!
Right now I dont “trust” any poll, even if it is ICM. The political climate is such that its unlike any other I have ever seen in my lifetime. All I do know is that Labour are finished.
29 - I think that’s why he made the comment…
21. Fair enough. I don’t really have a clue about the speaker business except that I want Field but doubt New Labour MPs will vote for him.
32. True enough. If people are going to put ‘BETTING POST’ in big capital letters so nobody can miss it can’t they do the same with ‘SATIRE’ or ‘IRONY’?
Pressure for a 2009 GE growing - there’s mention of a politics home poll on timing. Has this been covered earlier? Sorry if so.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5369056/MPs-expenses-Gordon-Brown-under-pressure-for-early-election.html
Richard North has his own take on the current state of the expenses scandal. Interesting that Stephen Pound has backed up Dorries’ claims that the ACA was a lump sum including the claim that the fees office would ring people up and tell them they had underclaimed that month.
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2009/05/looking-wrong-way.html
*** BETTING POST ***Very good poll for The GREEN Party. I think they are a great bet to win Brighton Pavillion at the GE. I’ve been building up a nice position at 4/1.
This ability to highlight betting posts should be brilliant for the punters amongst us. I was starting to despair how to cope with the increasingly lengthy threads.
Mike. Are you happy for us to do this and if so do you want to formally endorse the idea?
31
I think I would tend towards the idea that when it comes to the Euro’s they are so difficult to predict that all polls have an element of the rogue about them.
.
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16 “For this election I’m a Lib Dem / Green floating voter. I don’t think that’s a combination I’ve ever floated between before - I shall chalk that one up to experience.”
Funnily enough, I’m the same, Antifrank! And of course I was teasing about ‘the wind’. It just as daft to take polls literally as it is to ignore them altogether. This Euro election needs to be treated with particular caution. Intuitively, I feel that Labour will do worse than this poll suggests and third Parties, including the Greens and BNP will do better. In fact I regard the Greens as the new Natural Home of the Protest Vote which once went automatically to the LDs, although the latter should still do OK.
As always, when I am reduced to relying on my ‘intuit’, I lower my stakes!
Apolgies for teasing!
Space cannons pave the way to victory!Testing.
* * * BETTING POST * * *Victor Chandler have just shortened the SNP’s odds and lengthened Labour’s odds for the Glasgow North East by-election:
(change from this afternoon’s VC prices)
Labour 11/10 (from 4/5)
SNP 11/10 (from 6/4)
Any Independent 5/1 (unchanged)
Lib Dems 28/1 (unchanged)
Conservative 66/1 (unchanged)
Way Off Topic
This one is for SeanT
Winston Churchill: ” Osbert Peake came to dine & sleep last night, and Christopher [Soames] and I had 4 hours vy informative talk w him about OAP, which is the dominant feature of next year’s Con Programme…
“Peake hates old people (as such) living too long and cast a critical eye upon me…I felt vy guilty. But in rejoinder I took him in to my study and showed him the 4 packets of proofs for the History of the E.S. Peoples wh bring in 50,000 dollars a year into the island on my account alone. ‘You don’t keep me. I keep you.’ He was rather taken aback.”
source: “Churhill by Himself: The Definitive Collection of Quotations” ed. by Richard Langworth
14- All the confusion that the election engenders, with PB.com as Exhibit A, serves to amplify the potential significance of the actual election and make it that much more exciting. That is, if the polls could be viewed as highly reliable, the impact of the actual vote would be lessened by having been anticipated for so long. Instead, it seems very likely that the result will be a surprise one way or another and its potential impact that much greater when people wake up the next day stunned at the verdict. Viewed in that light, the Euros could very well be make or break: either the death knell for Brown’s administration or its salvation (for another eleven months or so).
35 oh god, they should put up a health warning before they put up ‘funny’ brown photos on an article. My eyes have dissolved in agony and my stomach has just throttled me…. be warned.. this must be the face Mrs B gets to see - she is a saint.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1184626/Ministers-backing-October-election-PM-prepares-national-plan-Britain-recession.html
Even if the BNP showing is depressed by a “shy vote” factor, that’s a good thing. We want people to be ashamed of voting BNP.
On another note, related to the previous thread - why doesn’t Cameron promise a referendum on PR for the Commons, whilst promising that a Tory government will back “no change”? It would be a very effective way of dishing the Lib Dems and winning cover for a broader range of Tory constitutional reforms - such as fewer MPs, an elected or part-appointed Lords, abolition of the regional authorities, and so on.
* * * BETTING POST * * *Glasgow North East by-election - best prices
Lab 5/4 Ladbrokes
SNP 5/4 Ladbrokes
Ind 5/1 Victor Chandler
Con 100/1 Ladbrokes
LD 100/1 Ladbrokes
Is anyone aware of any other bookies offering Glasgow NE prices, apart from Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Victor Chandler and William Hill?
http://tinyurl.com/q4gnb8
BBC “A man has appeared in court to try to start a private prosecution against the home secretary over her expense claims.”
hat tip Guido.
Re BNP phone canvassing and James on the last thread.
Another possibility is to give them hope and keep them on the phone. Whilst they are wasting their time with you, they can’t be productive with someone else.
* * * BETTING POST * * *37 You and I are singing from the same page of the hymn sheet there, StJohn. Brighton Pavilion is a steal at 4/1.
The ‘heading’ is a great idea, imo, and will mean I no longer feel inclined to bark at those who never, ever post anything about betting!
41/46. Would those ‘any independent’ prices include John Swindburne? Technically not an independent, of course, but the media seem to be treating him as one.
The lower the turnout, the harder it becomes for pollsters to predict.
However, I will state there is no possibility of the big three increasing their vote share by 8%. They will be doing well to hold their 2004 vote share.
48 - Yeah I did that for a bit.
38. Agreed. I think this euro election will be almost impossible for pollsters to call accurately. What I would say though is that after calling the mayoral election absolutely spot on, I have a hunch YouGov will probably get closest of all pollsters.
40- Be careful Morris I wouldn’t want you to fall foul of these people:
https://www.petitiononline.com/VS070821/petition.html
39 Gone off Harry PtP - or is his stance on the Iraq war still got you by the ballot box?
54, fieryfox tells me it uses an invalid security certificate.
37 SJ - the Betting Post banner is a great idea.
53. Although of course the last Euros was the first time YouGov’s reputation had been tarnished somewhat - they overestimated UKIP and underestimated the two main parties.
53
Do you think that with it being internet based yougov doesn’t suffer so much of the ’shy ‘ effect?
I was wondering if perhaps they would show a bigger vote for Labour or the BNP because the lack of personal contact makes people less likely to be embarrased about their choices?
Is the problem with this ICM poll that it uses previous voting to weight the dont knows and that favours parties like Labour that have lost a lot of support?
Sorry if someone has already said this to Mr Palmer somewhere:
” Nick Palmer MP says:
22/5/2009 at 9:45 am
For interest, a note on how the Telegraph revelations are handled. They obviously have the problem that they don’t want to be scooped, or have the target pre-empt their criticism by putting a friendlier version in another paper. So (according to a couple of MPs who I talked to) what happens is that they ring you up during the morning (’if you’re not phoned before 2pm they’re not targeting you today’, according to one), and give you a few hours to check your email, where they say what they propose to write… It’s that sort of ‘nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition’ moment that has MPs jumpy even where they think their record is clean. I can see why the Telegraph is doing it, but God help you if you let your phone battery go flat. ”
Nick, if you’re still around – I suspect that it’s actually to double-check that they aren’t printing anything that could lead to a libel suit. Without condoning what has happened, it seems to me that some MPs are often not helping themselves in their eagerness to answer.
From what we’ve seen so far I’m guessing a typical scenario might be something like:
Telegraph - “Why do you seem to be claiming for 3 house flips, a gold-plated bath, a rubber duck and a patio heater?”
MP – “Actually it wasn’t a house flip it was … [some story] …, it was gold-plated taps not a bath, and I didn’t actually claim for the patio heater it just came with the patio decking as part of the package”
Telegraph – “Great, in that case we’ll just make it look like you house flipped without actually saying so, leave out the reasonable explanation, correct it to gold plated taps instead of a bath, and we’ll also add the bit about you having garden decking, thanks for that, together with the duck it’ll make you look really silly”
If they were clearly intending to publish anyway, but with serious errors, personally I’d just write back with a “thank you for your email, you should know that much of what you are alleging contains serious errors and if you do publish my lawyers will be in touch with you shortly”, stick to it when they write back asking for further information, and if they decide to publish something anyway that is actionable, sue the pants off them.
I see you all have a new blogging toy.
Boys!
56 - IE told me the same, but there’s only text there, here’s most of it.
To: THE WORLD
This petition is online to officially claim to the world of International laws and human right/laws breaking of US government since 2004, and to ask justice for victims around the world being once and frequently remotely attacked by US secret teams under their illegal stealth activities using their most sophisticate space-based weapon systems operated from their US ground-bases. In 2004, US government secretly put into orbit-space their such weapons (laser, direct energy, EM Anti-countermeasures); since then, crossing every territorial borders and evading every territories of every nations from over-the-space, from their ground-bases, they launch remote over-orbit-space attacks to any targets, everyone around the world at any places.
The most sophisticate functional of these weapons besides of damages a laser weapon can do onto an object is with capable of eastablishing remote communication with biological beings’ brainwaves which provides reading off, wrting onto data from brainwaves of being-attacked ones, for that they can completely control and manipulate every behaviors in mental and physical of the victims. As a result, they have used this as their new way of torturing ones remotely and stealithy.
There have been thousands peoples at least once attacked by that; the listing is added up frequently. Victims are at any ages – 1 to 2 year old upto over sixty years old, male and female, civillians, government agents and militants. The followings are some countries recorded that being under such remote attacks by US government stealth secret teams: Taiwan, China, Korea, Vietnam. They have used such remote probes to find spies in their homeland.
Thanks for reading.
Victims/Witnesses
PS:
All Facts and Truths : being updated frequently.
47. TC. What was wrong with the story when I posted it over an hour ago…
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/05/22/why-hopi-sen-is-wrong-about-labour-being-less-popular-brown/comment-page-2/#comment-1072520
62 SallyC
Usually it’s the girls who like the pretty decorations.
Scott P I only just came on this thread and did not check the other one!
57- Yes, a nice compromise that overcomes other less pleasant suggestions, such as separate simultaneous threads by subject or a general crackdown.
Great to see that the BBC is publicising Steen and Dorries to the max..
The Tories answer to ‘Malcolm Tucker’ must be going ballistic…
* * * BETTING POST * * *49. PtP. Skybet has 9/2 for the Greens in Brighton
.
.
55 SallyC
He’s had his snout in the trough. He’s out.
50. Red Meteor
John Swinburne is, of course, the founder of the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party, which AFAIAA is still registered as a political party with the Electoral Commission.
I suppose it depends what he puts on the ballot paper, but if he uses”Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party” then it is impossible to consider him to be an “Independent”.
If betting on him (or any other “Ind”) I would clarify this with the bookie. In writing!
http://www.sscup.org/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Swinburne
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Senior_Citizens_Unity_Party
There is a massive problem with assessing the BNP vote in particular.
Are they still shy? Or has the reply ‘I am voting BNP become not only acceptable but almost fashionable in some areas?
I think in some Labour strongholds we are seeing the later. But how many of them are saying it for effect and how may are registered real votes?
Greens now suspended with skybet.
57. Mike, would it not be possible to add a check-box to the submission form, which would automatically format a betting post this way?
* * * BETTING POST * * *69 Thanks Scott. They would only let me have £25 but that’s better than a smack in the face with a bucket of mouldy moat water.
Cheers.
70 You’re a hard man.
Good.
I am rather disappointed not to have someone to deselect.
67- SSI, if you’re still there, what do you think of the Guantanamo fiasco? Here’s a fun article on it from the angle of Joe Biden’s recent comments:
“So will Obama fulfill his vow - announced amid great fanfare in an executive order on day two of his presidency - to close the facility by January 2010? “I think so,” Biden responded, according to Newsweek’s Holly Bailey.
So perhaps he will. Or perhaps not. We’ll see.
Biden continued: “But, look, what the president said is that this is going to be hard. It’s like opening Pandora’s Box. We don’t know what’s inside the box.”
He also said that “to the best of my knowledge” the number of prisoners “who are a real danger who are not able to returned or tried” has “not been established” by the Obama administration.
So he basically just confirmed his predecessor Dick Cheney’s analysis that the decision was taken “with little deliberation, and no plan”.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/toby_harnden/blog/2009/05/22/out_of_the_loop_joe_biden_says_decision_to_shut_guantanamo_was_like_opening_pandoras_box_
Frankly, I’m (a bit) surprised that the congressional Dems are so cowardly about housing the detainees on American soil that they’d rather humiliate their own beloved leader than solve the Guantanamo problem by using our own maximum security prisons. This childish NIMBY attitude is much like the Yucca Mountain imbroglio, where untold billions of dollars were wasted preparing a facility that now won’t be used for its well-suited purpose of storing nuclear waste for thousands of years. What’s wrong with these clowns? Even I don’t oppose locking up the detainees on U.S. soil, where they’ll be no more harmful than Yucca nuclear waste when handled properly.
45 I would like to see a Constitutional Convention offered in the Tory and Lib Dem manifestos.
NuLab have been buggering around with our constitution for far too long, introducing unbalanced devolution, a House of Lords that is entirely dependent on patronage and cronyism, completely neutered the House of Commons as an independent legislature, and is now dropping hints about ramming through further ill-considered changes before the election. In addition, the ability of the Commons to police itself is being questioned - rightly - which also has constitutional implications as it would challenge the important constitutional principal of the sovereignty of Parliament.
Constitutional change needs to be well thought out, with all options considered, and a coherent, workable, improved option put before the electorate in a referendum. Maybe with mini-referendums beforehand to settle issues like the composition of the HoL, English devolution, etc.
I would aim to put a “yes or no” referendum to the people alongside the 2014/5 General Election, with a proviso that a “yes” shortens that Parliament to 2 years, enabling a further GE to be held under whatever new arrangements are put in place.
I am not sure that the job could be done properly in a shorter timescale.
I try to avoid bashing bbc biasness, but that report was ridiculous. They really should watch their step. Privatisation here we come!!!!
The trouble with Mrs Dorries is she’s got more of a conscience than most of the others and wants to prove she didn’t do anything wrong but…
saying “everyone knew” about how they secretly gave themselves a 20 grand a year pay rise disguised as expenses, [b]except those people whose money it was they were secretly taking[/b], is not a defense. It just makes people angrier like that **** Steen saying him taking fistfuls of public money was his private business.
She needs to go have a quiet chat / confession with Father Frank and then go do some good deeds in her constituency and stop standing in front of an oncoming train like a spaz.
.
.
76 Sally C
My wish for the next GE is that voters take a good look at how their MP has behaved and throw out the rascals who have been on the fiddle. It follows of course that those who have behaved well will be duly rewarded.
Perhaps I am an idealist.
79, details please.
God turns against the Telegraph:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6344882.ece
Apologies for the flippancy but I thought it in line with the quality of the Telegraph coverage
That BNP figure is totally wrong.
Salford result last night:
http://bnp.org.uk/2009/05/bnp-beat-tories-and-media-puffed-ukip-in-salford/
In case readers haven’t seen this - just appeared in my Inbox
http://www.taxpayersalliance.com/EULandscapePoll.pdf
83 - I don’t like Rowan Williams for a whole host of reasons and frankly he should be on Morris Dancer’s list if he isn’t there already. However I think he has a point.
86, Sharia law is inevitable, James Al-Burdett. Under it, all these MPs must have their hands cut off.
Completely OT, but a hilarious article
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/22/pringles-potato-crisp
80. Mr Jones
The headline figures of what they receive have been available for months if not years. The only reason that it hasn’t been highlighted before is the media/electorate haven’t bothered before to focus on it:
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mps/
Go to any MPs page and choose the expenses link.
The key thing that has changed is that now the Telegraph has the detail and can now ridicule and sensationalise MPs claims as a result of having that information.
87. Morris Dancer. Under Sharia law isnt Moorish dancing out? Anyway, I thought that it was only a single hand for a first offence?
How do I do the betting post thing? I only ever make betting posts so I should probably learn!
87 - Strangely I now have images of a crack troupe of suicide morris dancers!
80.Mr Jones, so what is your view of the court decision to include ACA as part of an MP’s salary when deciding maintenance? Was that decision given in defence of the system, or just a recognition of it?
And isn’t that exactly what Nadine Dorris was doing today?
89.jsfl, I see that a Tory MP is now being viewed as extravagant because he bought a SatNav on his expenses. Would have thought it a handy piece of kit to help an MP get around his constituency.
86 He seems, inter alia, to be talking about “restoring confidence in our democracy”, which is the sort of guff a lot of politicians, including DC, have been spouting.
No we don’t. If our democratic system is f*cked we are quite right to have no confidence in it. Besides which, we the voters have an absolute right to have any political opinion we wish and to vote in any way we wish, however perverse. It’s called democracy.
What is needed is not to re-establish confidence in the system, that sounds like “make the voters forget about it so we can continue as before”. What is needed is to fix the system. Unfortunately I can’t see that happening short of an insurrection.
jsfl: “The headline figures of what they receive have been available for months if not years.”
Completely meaningless while they managed to maintain the scam that it was *neccessary expenses* incurred as part of having to maintain two homes and not a gigantic fraud aka secret pay rise.
94 Sat Nav?
What about Sat TV?
91 noisy summer
Type the following at the top of your post
<code><b> * * * BETTING POST * * * </b></code>
The “code” stuff is responsible for putting it into a box. The “b” makes it bold.
94. Alternatively he could have used a map…
With apologies for the long post, this is Alan Beith’s pretty comprehensive rebuttal of the Telegraph story. Thought it might be useful in view of discussion, as well as of interest in tems of the questions the Telegraph are putting to MPs -
A piece in the Daily Telegraph published on Friday 22 May 2009 implied that Sir Alan Beith MP and his wife Diana, who sits in the House of Lords as Baroness Maddock, have in some way benefited from expenses claims in relation to a rented flat in London.
The Telegraph emailed Sir Alan at 10:55 on Thursday morning with a series of questions about his expenses. Sir Alan emailed his responses to the questions at 2:11 on Thursday afternoon, well before the 5pm deadline set by the paper. However, almost nothing of Sir Alan’s replies appeared in the printed or online article by the Telegraph.
Here are the Telegraph’s questions and Sir Alan’s responses in full:
From: Gordon Rayner
Subject: expenses
PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL
Dear Sir Alan Beith,
The Daily Telegraph is investigating the expense claims made by MPs under the Parliamentary additional costs allowance system.
We are considering publishing an article in tomorrow’s newspaper (22nd May 2009) which will contain details of your expense claims.
We are aware of the provisions of the statutory instrument passed by Parliament last July and will therefore not be publishing MPs’ addresses or any other details which could compromise security.
However, as a matter of legitimate public interest and concern, we intend to publish the following details about your expense claims under the Additional Costs Allowance. We would invite you to respond to the following points.
1. Your ACA claims show that since 2001 you have claimed £117,750 in second home allowances. In the same period your wife, Baroness Maddock, has claimed £128,154 in allowances from the House of Lords, including more than £60,000 for overnight stays. Do you think it is right and proper that the taxpayer should pay twice for overnight accommodation for the same couple?
Answer - It would be quite wrong for the taxpayer to pay twice for the same costs, so we have shared the costs, either by sharing the cost of rent, or by my wife using her allowance towards costs incurred (she normally claims only half of the Lords’ overnight allowance)
2. Between 2005 and 2008 you claimed more than £6,000 for food. To what extent was this expense incurred “wholly, necessarily and exclusively” to enable you to carry out your parliamentary duties?
Answer - This represents meals taken and paid for in the House of Commons, mainly during evening sittings, and meals on trains (I travel 700 miles a week to get from my home to London).
3. Between 2005 and 2008 you claimed more than £5,000 for a cleaner, though you rarely submitted receipts for this. What assurances can you give us that the amount claimed was an accurate reflection of the costs you incurred?
Answer - I can given an absolute assurance that the amount claimed was the amount paid to the cleaner, and, since receipts have been required, I have always submitted them with the claim.
4. In 2006/7 you claimed £5,457 for a new kitchen from John Lewis. What assurances can you give that this did not “enhance” the property rather than simply maintaining it, as required by the Green Book?
Answer - The kitchen had had no work done on it since the 1960s, the cupboards were falling apart and the appliances, which were second-hand when acquired, were not energy efficient.
5. In 2007/8 you bought an air conditioner for £219. Do you believe this was an appropriate use of taxpayers’ money? Does this not count as a “luxury item”, of the kind which is banned by the Green Book?
Answer - The flat often becomes much too hot to sleep in during June and July, and my old air cooler broke down. I got a replacement from Argos.
6. Have you ever sold a property which you allocated as your second home? If so, did you pay capital gains tax?
Answer - Never. My second home has always been a rented flat.
7. Do you intend to pay back any of the money you have claimed on expenses?
Answer - If any claim is deemed to have been inappropriate by the external scrutiny, I will pay it back.
We do not presently see the justification for all of these claims under the rules or spirit of the rules set out in the Parliamentary Green Book. We would also be interested in establishing what steps you have taken to ensure that there are “no grounds for a suggestion of a misuse of public money” and that “value for money” has been obtained.
Answer - I have always rented my London accommodation, always sought value for money in any necessary expenditure, and have always sought to ensure that there were no grounds for a suggestion of misuse of public money.
Please could we receive your comments by 5pm today so that they can be given due weight in our inquiries and properly reflected in any article we decide to publish. Please could you also inform us if you do not wish to comment.
Many thanks for your time and I look forward to hearing from you shortly. I can be contacted on [contact details removed by Sir Alan Beith to protect the journalist's privacy].
Yours Sincerely,
Gordon Rayner
Chief Reporter
94 Poor old Keith Simpson has been fingered for claiming £150plus on lightbulbs for his (dark) basement flat - on which he claims nothing else it says but rent and telephone. Unless they are accusing him of running some sort of lightbulb racket, I am uncertain of the newsworthiness of the story - its like Cheryl Gillans £4.47 on dog food.
94 Surely all car running costs should be subsumed within mileage?
90 - I don’t know whether he covers sharia law, but everyone knows that Morris Dancer is the man to consult on cannon law.
94 Its Waugh in the Standard who obviously hates SatNavs so any purchase of them becomes “unacceptable”. One of the few incidental expenses that actually seems to be wholly required for performance of the job.
Wonder who got the calls and emails today who is trying out their excuses in readiness for tonight’s witchfinding.
*** BETTINGPOST ***GREENS now generally 7/2 to win Brighton Pavilion. 4/1 with vc.bet.
90, anyone trying to prevent morris dancing will have to contend with my wiffle stick!
92, random fact: the leader of that group in the Life of Brian was meant to have a bigger role, but they cut it down because he (a Jewish Nazi) was too controversial. I eagerly await the Life of Abdul, a lighthearted comedy about someone mistaken for Mohammed.
105. Oops. Now corrected to read 4/1 with vc.bet.
Polly:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/22/mps-expenses-harrietharman
Most chilling bit:
“If Labour had an ounce of sense left, it would see that radical reform is its last chance to regain a shred of credibility – and the best reason not to hold an election until a constitutional convention draws up propositions for a referendum to be held at the same time.”
Funniest bit:
But a senior minister outside the cabinet rings to say, “They’re all in huge denial. They are literally mad.”
99 MPs could also sleep on park benches and eat curried tramp sick.
A little perspective from outraged of Tunbridge Wells is fast becoming necessary.
Expenses = outlet for decades of frustration. Its about the disengagement, not the Dog Food.
93. A scam was set up to pay MPs more than they wanted to admit to the voters. The fact that the entire ****ing political-media and judicial class knew all about it but not the people whose money it was *is not* a defense. It just makes people angrier.
I don’t dislike the woman. She’s standing in front of an oncoming train.
Just got my Labour leaflet through, well when I say leaflet it is more of a front page wraparound advert on the local rag. Hmm.
Beith in the clear?
Hum. Not so sure that clears him completely. Double billing maybe but
£3000 p/a for food.
Paying for his cleaners?
Nah.
He has gone too far to be Speaker.
110
I ‘d love to see Nadine on Question Time. She’d make Margaret Beckett look like a top TV presenter…
113 - She was on a few weeks back
109 They could have used the ACA to pay for a small but functional flat, furnished from IKEA. That is my definition of “wholly and necessarily required to do their duties as an MP”, ie a modest pied a terre in London. If they want to live in greater state, they should be prepared to pay the addtional cost from their own pockets.
94. Indeed and if they are not familiar with London then it would be essential. Whilst, I strongly support exposing any MP who has abused the rules, I am beginning to wonder whether the journalist class are not now just trying to get all of them banged up in Brixton.
That said MPs have been really stupid by claiming what they have claimed for. Why didn’t they put all the dull stuff on the expenses and buy all the ‘extravagant’ items from their salary? Certainly they deserve an appropriate pasting for their stupidity.
Then at least this would have been about the real issue. How much it all costs. Even then it only works out to 30p per adult in the UK per year or £15 million. Compared with what is wasted on IT Projects each year it is chump change……..
I suppose I can’t get too excited about MPs spending less than the price of a copy of the Telegraph of my money each year on their allowances.
Just want to clarify further to my 109 - the flipping and phantom claims - outright fraud, must be dealt with and the process of punishing or deslecting the greedy should continue, but there is a real need for some taking stock I think - the whole lot are being swept up in a tidal wave of revulsion and I really think a lot of it (dog food, light bulbs for basement flats where there are not other exhornitant amounts and its a rental not a second mortgage) is being ridiculously overhyped, especially as these ridiculously minor issues are no longer possible.
Still, I am off out for some booze and a curry and will test the sentiment with my (way too lefty luvvie pretending, actually Thatcher loving slaves) group of associates
116.jsfl. Indeed. If we thought about how useless and incompetent Labour are - just how much money they waste, it should make people so much angrier.
115 totally - but even those that do that are getting Telegraphed (Keith Simpson)
115. I’m leaning more and more to either make everyone rent, or buy up a load of flats and say you have the use of this flat, anything else is your own choice out of your own pocket.
All this fiddling is chump change compared to the extra £2 billion / year cost of EU membership thanks to Gordo’s great decision to pay for it in Euros rather than Pounds Sterling! Also, how much did Blair’s decision to give up part of our rebate (and gained nothing return) cost us?
Just a thought given the Euro elections are coming up! Wonder if the press will mention it?
Re Question Time and Nadine.
She would go down well enough on Toryhome’s live blog. The comments seem to revolve around nominating their top totty based on a combination of hair colour, appearance [upper half of course - no legs visible] and soundness of political opinions.
I felt I was an eavesdropper to a conservation in a very nerdy pub.
Dame Hermione Grope-Worthy (Miss). Didn’t you used to be Emily Churchill ?
116. To me, it’s about if you don’t have a no mercy and no prisoners attitude to political corruption then eventually you end up in a country where you can’t get a dog lience without bribing someone.
121 That’s not true… there were some nice legs on show on QT yesterday (in the audience) and the ConHome live blog certainly noticed them.
Did the YouGov (UK/EU) poll on Thursday. [Zero-credits!]
I’ll wait until [tomorrow|Sunday|Monday] before I make a call. At least I know that YG reflect my politics - sometimes…!
123. Yep and the Telegraph will probably expose you for that too!
Make government poverty history (it’s brilliant)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29cB075cqks&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eorder%2Dorder%2Ecom%2F&feature=player_embedded
Hat tip Guido
O/T - What has the telegraph reading public done to deserve 2 Heffer op-eds tomorrow?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/simonheffer/5369865/Financial-crisis-One-more-quango-and-we-might-burst.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5369942/MPs-expenses-Being-clean-of-moat-is-no-longer-a-virtue.html
93. Air conditioner? London June & July? He’s having a laugh. At our expense.
OK, I am game…!
You don’t blog (according to your blog). So - as an WH Inter-webby punter - how do I bet against those odds? [ WH-Outright bets don't offer us mere mortals the chance
]
126. beautiful.
Do we have any clues who is in the ducking stool for tomorrow yet?
I note that no expenses story is currently in the BBC’s top five most read, though two lurk at 6 and 10. A sign that expenses fatigue might be starting to kick in?
127. ROFLMAO
One more quango and we’ll burst
The Telegraph have just created one. Heffer the hypocritical dinosaur strikes again!
129. Do you mean this?
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN/betting/e/287451/European-Election-UK-Voter-Turnout.html
I was astounded to discover from C4 News yesterday that the Fees Office actually turned down Vigger’s claim for his duck house. So it wasn’t paid for by the taxpayer after all. Most news outlets, including the vast BBC coverage, never let that duck out of the bag. Indeed it’s clearly been one big duck decoy. It certainly let Hoon and Purnell off the hook. The media, with Pravda leading the way, are increasingly turning expenses into a Tory Story. Nadine, of course, has done her best to help. How will this affect the polls?
129 - Confusingly, the bet is not put under UK Politics but under European Politics - European Parliament Elections.
I assume the green support is + and not -3?
“For this election I’m a Lib Dem / Green floating voter. I don’t think that’s a combination I’ve ever floated between before - I shall chalk that one up to experience.”
To make an informed choice I checked out the Green manifesto but found it far too nannyish, not allowing enough freedom on education for one. So it looks like lib dems again for me.
Had a labour canvasser round last night (in Guildford he must ne a masochist). He went on his way when he saw my expression at his mention of the the word ‘labour’, no further explanation was necessary or sought!
Another piece from the Telegraph belatedly turning this into life under Labour…….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5369324/Life-under-Labour-the-worst-of-worlds.html
127 It’s impossible to feel sympathy for Telegraph buyers. Most people I know who still but it are old timers who buy it largely for the puzzles.
The loss of the crossword and the other odd puzzle thingy which only it does [?] would kill it off.
EDIT: I am afraid it’s a fact. Until the last few days, the DT was a puzzle book for the elderly. Which is what it will go back to being.
The Druid tries to stop the fight…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1186715/Stop-systematic-humiliation-MPs-warns-Archbishop-Canterbury.html
84. So by that logic, Labour should be miles ahead in the polls? BNP idiot logic as usual.
77 S&S - you make much sense, oh Sage of Jersey!
Perhaps best explanation for congressional allergy to Gitmo prisoners on US soil, is that the Dems with concerns appear to come from marginal districts mainly in South and other turf where a) they can expect to be targeted by GOP; and b) they are sceptical that Obama will be able to help them all that much.
Of course there are broader implications from the Obama-Cheney debate.
But Congress, especially the House, is (by design) highly responsive to more parochial concerns.
Man o’ Man!
Namely Mark Cavendish, winner of today’s Florence stage of Giro d’Italia.
To cheer you all up on a Friday afternoon, it’s time for…
Eric Pickles War Room, episode 2!
“Hello my dear chums….”
140
He’s a complete muppet.. or afraid his expenses will be next.
( I suspect the latter)
139
My wife likes the puzzles… especially the numbers ones and the crosswords.. She claims it keeps her mind alert and prevents senility… I am not so sure.
I can only say, that in this area the only posters I’ve seen have been UKIP ones.
Waugh in the ES.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2009/05/tebbit-warns-cam-not-to-let-off-his-pals.html
134, that’s shocking, and appalling. Bloody disgraceful.
ANyway, I’m off. I shall return later
134: Oscar, you’re quite right the duck pond wasn’t paid, but it was the act of claiming which has created the scandal.
The ones I believe are hard done by are the Kitty Usshers - who asked the fees office for guidance on what they could and couldn’t claim, and made claims on this basis. The Telegraph could have highlighted much more the episodes which were only enquiries rather than claims. I’d much rather have MPs who cared at least enough to ask from the officials in the first place than those who got rejected for luxuries.
Yippee! First political bet. 4-1 is fun!
Cheers mate!
What’s the betting that all these bizarre claims - Duck houses, moat cleaning, trouser presses etc were all just part of a giant MPs’ “who can get the most ridiculous expense past the fees office” competition…
***BETTING POST***24 OGH: “I got on at <30% with William Hill at 5/1 with a covering bet at 11/4 on 30-34.99%. I think I am a certain winner.”
So do I Mike! One thing one has to learn very quickly on PB is the fact that if this one cannot get on at the same odds as the Maestro, doesn’t necessarily mean one shouldn’t do the same bets.
Hills’ somewhat drastically revised odds for <30% is 2/1, whereas 30-34.99% remains unchanged at 2.75/1. Combining these to achieve the same outcome (by staking 55.56% on the 2/1 bet and 44.44% on the 2.75/1 bet), produces, if successful, a return of 66.7% in two weeks, not bad if one is confident of the result. I’m on!
139
I cancelled my sub when they tried to spiek Guidos smeargate story. Nothing that has happend this last 2 weeks has made me regret that decision.
148. I have no sympathy for Kitty Usher. It is true she asked if she could charge for work, but she had lived with it in an unrepaired state for 5 years!! It was only essential maintenance when someone else could be sent the bill…
Labour are doomed - DOOMED!
LDs are doomed - DOOMED!
Labour are doomed - DOOMED!
LDs are doomed….
DOOMED!!!
Repeat as desired, to the tune of Blue Rondo a la Turk.
154 - Have you been hypnotised by Martin Day?
Al Beeb note that Tory activists didn’t want Lansley to visit.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8064217.stm
There must be hundreds of Labour activists who want Smith or Gordon or Darling to stay away from their patches. Have the BBC got anything showing Brown with hordes of hardworking families cheering him on and calling on him to let them buy their own ID cards now.
156 - I had a bit of a blog rant about that.
Oi, seanT! Leave us [partial] Turks alone!
It is not like I is a Tupac-agriculturist, is it…?
Would anyone like to tell Bracknell Tories what to do with Mr Mackay?
http://www.bracknellconservatives.com/
Scoll down and send ‘em a message. Be polite[ish].
So, umm, Labour have drifted back out to 11-8 at William Hill to get more seats than UKIP. 2.1 to lay at Betfair, which looks like a guaranteed small profit to me.
151 PfP
I agree, although I think it’s more likely to be less than 30%, so I’ve concentrated on that band, with the 30%-35% as a stake-saver only.
Worth a read
So it is simply impossible for Gordon Brown to reform any of this properly. He would be destroying the system that gives him power. All his ideas so far – a government quango to decide what MPs are paid, an attempt to ban outside earnings, a plan to import the Continental system of paying MPs a salary simply for existing, and then a large additional fee for having the grace to turn up – would only make MPs more under the thumb of government, more absolute in the dependence of their wallets on the taxpayer. When he attacks what he calls the “gentlemen’s club”, Mr Brown is assailing the few vestiges of independence that remain. Gentlemen, after all, do not pay for their clubs with public money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/mps-expenses-rebuilding-politic/5370236/MPs-expenses-Now-is-the-time-to-obliterate-the-professional-political-class.html
Has this been covered on another thread?
“Public attitudes on the EU: Implications for Political Campaigns
Between the 1st and 4th May 2009, ICM polled a random sample of 1,002
adults (18+) on their attitudes to the EU. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.1″
http://www.taxpayersalliance.com/EULandscapePoll.pdf
Mike,
I would hardly call a 1 point increase for Labour a big boost for the big 3
On the basis of this poll Labour +12 in Ladbrokes handicap looks interesting…a week after I said it was a no no. its very live.
160 Richard - I almost did the opposite, initially favouring the 30%-35% band, but in the end equalized the two bets. The 30% figure for Scotland last time was telling, plus of course the inevitable protest against the expenses scandal.
165. PfP. I have followed your sage advice and equalized my stakes. Bon chance!
162
Thats a fascinating study. I am surprised though that Labour poll so highly in the Euro election intentions compared to the national election intentions
164 Yokel
If you believe it.
I’d be much more confident if we had separate figures for areas where there are local elections, and areas where there aren’t.
FWIW my ‘finger in the air’ guesstimate, based on looking at the last three polls (see post at 25), and adding a bit to Con/UKIP because they are stronger in the areas where there are locals, is:
Con 31
Lab 20
LD 15
UKIP 15
BNP 4
Green 8
This Poll doesn’t surprise me - I’m expecting the ICM Telegraph poll on sunday to actually show a slight rise in Tory support
I would imagine Con46, Lab24 lIB 20
Davd Camerons call for Mad Nad to STFU seems to have fallen in deaf ears. She was on ITN this evening hand wringing about how awful the Telepgraph and the public are being to MP’s and how we’re going to be driving the poor dears to suicide.
169 - Not a prayer of figures like that.
170.
I hope the Teegraph lynch her on Sunday ! Grilled NADINE !!
127 : SallyC @ 19:00
“It’s impossible to feel sympathy for Telegraph buyers. Most people I know who still but it are old timers who buy it largely for the puzzles. … I am afraid it’s a fact. Until the last few days, the DT was a puzzle book for the elderly.”
I have taken the Telegraph every day I could for more decades than I care to remember and I feel I should object to your post. I just wish I could remember why.
Did anybody get 8 down in the cryptic today?
169. Lol, Con 46, yeah right.
164 Yokel - you’re absolutely right! One is so pre-conditioned to expect bad polls for Labour that I for one completely overlooked their leading position after adjusting for their generous handicap and Ladbrokes’ equally generous odds of 4/1, which I’ve taken. If they secure anything over 20% of the vote, compared with 24% shown by this poll, they must be in with a chance of winning this handicap.
168. Whilst I dont expect Labour to be that close to the Tories I get a feeling, and it is a feeling, that Labour just doesnt have much ground left to fall here, thus a 22-23% is maybe viable for Europe though I know many voices have gone for very low figures for Labour. The means the Tories need a good 34-35% and I’m thinking its getting tighter.
The real answer lies in the likelihood to vote. As you mention the council elections may bear well for the Tories.
171.
I have been really accurate recently, lets wait and see ! What are you expecting James ?
170. GIN. Mad Nad. Really another one who needs to have reality explained to her in simple terms like Anthony Steen. Her antics over abortion were embarrassing. I found her irritating even as the victim in Smeargate, but I just ignored it. Now, she’s embarrassing the party. Come on Cammo!
174. You will eat your words ! I know something you don’t, na na !!
170 - Could someone sidle up to her with a handkerchief suffused with chloroform?
177 - A poll.
110.”I don’t dislike the woman. She’s standing in front of an oncoming train.”
Then why is she getting it in the neck for stating the blindingly obvious, she isn’t defending it!
The Sunday that the Telegraph kicked off on the Tory expose, Cameron said exactly the same thing, he explained the culture that had grown up around ACA. He said it was wrong, it shouldn’t have happened and apologised. I don’t see anything different in what Nadine said today on 5 Live. But wait, its Nadine. She was the first to have the balls to take on the Telegraph by publishing the email she got from them, and her response. And the reaction she got was totally over the top.
Today someone posted Alan Beith’s response, nothing, zilch.
Dizzy Thinks - ‘MP Suicide Watch’ is nothing new it just might be more widespread
“I bring this up because the concern over the possibility of “MP suicide” is now in the news again and for some strange reason it’s being run as if it is a shocking new revelation or possibility, and is being picked up all over the place, including “David Cameron orders public reprimand for suicide warning MP”.
Can someone explain to me how this latest news tsunmai on suicide is working exactly? What’s with all these people thinking this is new news? Were they all sleeping when it was mentioned before? On holiday perhaps? Anyone understand how it works, and why is the mention of suicide now, considered far more important and worthy of comment than when it was mentioned before?”
181.
What tonight ?
183 - No. I don’t think the figures though in any poll will be wildly out of the recent ranges.
184. James Burdett. I think they could. Mainly because turnout is low and variance is high. I’d want a sample nearly double the usual to be comfortable about the accuracy of the poll.
Expenses Special on ITV now
134.Are you sure, I have been assuming we paid for the duck island, the moat cleaning, chandelier, oh and a tennis court??
134 Oscar & 148 tpfkar
You both indicate that the duck pond expense was “claimed for”. Despite the way it is misreprented by the BBC, Martin Bell etc. I understand it was not even claimed for. The Green Book (the Bible for the allowances) encourages MPs to seek advice from the Fees Office as to what they claim and as you pointed out Kitty Usshers did this. Viggers annually sent a list together with invoices to the Fees Office making it clear he was leaving it to them to decide which expenditure was allowable. They marked the duck pond expense as disallowable and I understand at a later stage he claimed a figure agreed to by the Fees Office.
186. Steen’s rant opens the show…
Mark’s post at 30 deserves more consideration. I think he’s actually correct that it appears to mean that the methodology is actually friendlier to the small parties, making thier drop more remarkable.
Take an example: if the past vote weighting for the LDs is 20%, and they only find 10% in their sample who say they voted LD last time, then they’ll weight the ones they find as voting LD THIS time them as counting double, right? But if they lower the past vote weighting to 10%, then they leave the figure unchanged. So lowering the past vote weighting for the big parties means a swing to the big parties is all the more startling. Hmm. New poll needed to confirm, I think.
Telegraph stuff: Beith’s response looks pretty solid to me. It’s a bit sad that they went ahead with the piece anyway. The problem for MPs who think they’ve been wronged is surely not the cost of libel actions (MPs are insured after the first £500) but the likelihood in the current climate that even if they are accused of procuring Martian devil-worshipping tarts and charging it to expenses, and prove that it’s not so, they’ll only be awarded 1p by the average jury.
Entirely off topic, as there’s someone here who an expert on everything. Can anyone advise? I need to get an MOT on my 2005 Corsa. According to Vauxhall’s service guide, I ought to shell out £150 for a service too (no, not on expenses, stop it!). It runs perfectly, and I only use it for local stuff. Won’t the MOT be enough to spot anything serious?
To those wingeing MPs who have committed fraud I would simply say:
If you can’t do the time, don’t do the crime.
182 : ChristinaD @ 17:55
Putting my sympathy hat on I would say that if any of the troughers do top themselves it will only show that they didn’t have the moral fibre to be an MP in the first place and that there will be money to be made betting on the subsequent by-election.
However, with my sympathy hat off ……
182 “Then why is she getting it in the neck for stating the blindingly obvious, she isn’t defending it!”
I think most of the anti-Dorries comment is from people who don’t like her for other reasons - religion, abortion, Tory, female or whatever.
Personally I just don’t like her trying to deflect what I think is righteous anger at the political class especially as it won’t work and will just attract attacks onto herself.
31 Hilda
NuLabour are finished. The Labour Party was murdered by Blair and Brown. It is a dead party. Please try not to confuse them.
Grateful Thanks etc etc.
Poll percentages are merely the proportions of those likely to vote (according to different methodologies) of the given sample. In the instance that the likelihood to vote say Conservative falls then the total number expressing any opinion also falls. This results in an increase in the proportion supporting the other parties, and a seeming gain in support. The actual numbers expressing support may not have changed and could even have gone down.
In current circumstances (national polls) I believe the soft support (which has been pro-Tory/anti Labour) has probably been alienated from voting. This results in a boost to Labour/LD, which in the case of Labour is not driven by a real increase in popularity.
As the support for any party reverts to its core its poll percentage should become less affected by turnout.
190. when did you last have the Corsa serviced?
193. MrJones. I find Mad Nad’s tone irritating and her claims ridiculous. She is adding to the impression of stupid Tory MPs who dont understand that troughing is bad. Some of her comments are true - many MPs saw allowances as pay. Tough, the public rightly see it as expenses for doing the job of an MP - and it doesnt include moat cleaning. Her bizarre attacks on the DT and the Barclays make her sound “mad”. She is self righteous and she doesnt understand that in a situation like this, she does herself and her party a huge disservice by appearing in the front line. I am deeply hopeful that this PR disaster is deselected.
Anthony reports that at the start of May there was an ICM poll giving the Tories a 14% lead - Which would be the biggest Tory lead with ICM since August;
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2139#comments
It also seems the public remains very anti euro and anti Lisbon Treaty.
196:dr spyn - one year ago. The guide says “every 20K miles or every year, whichever comes first”. It’s had 8K miles since.
Ed Balls is getting shouted at on Any Questions
190 Nick Palmer @ 20:02
The MOT only checks to see if your car is basically roadworthy (i.e. safe to use). The service is there to make sure it will keep running, not the same thing at all. £150 quid for a service is a good price (my Honda cost me £300 for a routine service). Think of it as insurance and pay up would be my advice.
The Alan Beith replies are moderately mitigating. I often get too hot to sleep though, but I don’t expect someone else to buy me an air conditioner. The attitude that this is “OK” and above board fits with my general revulsion at many of these claims.
£6K on food as well…what??
I pay for food out of my salary, as do 99.9% of the population, including food which I eat at work or during work hours. This one is really not justified, for all MPs.
Seems like there was a general attitude that the ACA was effectively part of salary, and they just needed receipts - any receipts - to get it. It stinks.
190 IMO most ordinary cars’ service schedules are little more than a fluid top-up and you will get at least as good a check-over from an MOT. HOWEVER there are some things like belt changes that should not be skipped, so check and see if there is anything out of the ordinary that needs doing at 4 years. Also things like oil changes are worth doing.
A car that is only used locally will be running cold for much more of the time than would normally be expected, which causes wear and tear in itself - so it will wear faster than the low mileage might suggest, also parts wear according to time as well as mileage (eg rubber perishes).
Also a full service history helps if you want to sell it.
I would suggest going to an independent garage?MOT station(not a Vauxhall one) and getting a service done at the same time as the MOT.
176 Yokel
One way of looking at it is to try to guess how many Con/Lab supporters will use the European elections to give a kick in the teeth to the main parties. If one takes something like 41/28 as the basic GE figure (pre expenses scandal), Labour down to around 20 looks plausible to me, with most of the protests going to Greens, some to the LibDems, plus a few to BNP and others. Going down to 24% doesn’t look like a big enough kick in the teeth, especially since Labour polls less in Euros at the best of times.
The LibDems may benefit from Labour teeth-kickers, but they’ve also got some of their own scandals so the net effect could be small.
On the Conservatives, something like one in four teeth-kickers + Europhobes (nearly all to UKIP) sounds plausible to me.
Pure guesswork, of course. We shall see!
197. I sort of agree but my point was there’s a bunch of people who disliked her for mini-Palin type reasons long before this blew up and disproportionate attacks on her are partly due to those reasons.
However, saying “most of” was probably wrong - “a lot of” would be more accurate.
190. Might be worth getting one of those free 10 point checks out of ATS or whoever, you know the quick fit tyres batteries and brakes type people.
If they bring up issues then you can them sorted as its less likely a car of say 4 years old having any fundamentals going wrong (just check your lights though). I used to do it this way. If they spotted nothing it was a free check.
Nick - 20K is an enormous service interval, for most modern cars it’s 10K. Trouble is that if you deviate too far from the manufacturer’s guidlines you’ll lose any servicing “savings” on its trade-in value, unless you intend to drive it into the ground!
203 To add: I posted that before you said you did 8000 miles a year (which is a bit more than “just locally” in my book). I would service is according to schedule, but use an independent garage.
204. See your point. Instinctively, even though they are the Euros, can Labour really fall below 22% for example?
My gut says that’d be stretching it.
The BNP having virtually no support (1%) will be why our local paper (readership in rural North Yorkshire for goodness sake) has an editorial saying ‘Don’t Vote BNP’ today.
In general the media onslaught (the Sun, the Daily Fail especially) has been extraordinary against a miniscule political party with apparently no significant national support.
I admit that I am perplexed.
190. NP I would measure your tread depth on your tyres!
Even if they are 3MM they will say they need replacing when the legal minimum is 1.6mm! Garages are Immoral! So are manufactures who say you need new tyres at 3MM (Sometimes they are well above 3mm and they say they need replacing!) You could always take advantage of the recycle scheme and ave it Scraped! They may also try the old one of spraying the breaks with compressed air. Percentage of break pads worn is also a good one they try and Con you on!
I feel sorry for you NP because you have not been in the press and may well suffer anti MP backclash and inflated service costs!
190 Nick Palmer
Cars need servicing every yearish, log book will say how often in miles, (maybe 12,000 — no idea about Vauxhalls, terrible cars
) and a full service history will add a small amount to the value when you sell it. You can afford to do it slightly less often than recommended probably, especially if you do low mileage, but never getting it serviced is asking for trouble.
£150 is reasonable to be honest. But a word of warning, car dealers are not selling many cars, so are making it back on servicing, I have 4 or 5 anecdotes from colleagues about highly questionable sevice items recently.
have the telegraph got any more revelations for the weekend?
213 - Probably. Although Brogan is on holiday next week so maybe there will be a breather.
197.I thought that she came across in a reasonable manner on 5 Live today, and she made some good points.
I think the Telegraph will stop when it is no longer helping their sales or when they think their core redership has had enough.
212. Yes, Recently i had a service and i walked in and said i had measured the tyres, done little milage and so did not need stuff like the brakes sprying with compressed air. I just wanted it servicing - what you have to remember is servicing is really a garages second bite on the customers wallet!
My car is less than two years old yet the place does everyone with the same scams suggesting produres that are not really necessary! Another bloke overheard what i was saying and looked like he had taken a snort of coccaine and gave the customer service department a filthy look (Maybe he had been done as well!).
One MP is holding a public meeting next week regarding the expenses and has put his expenses online
http://www.petewishartmp.com/newsarticle.asp?id=94
The Telegraph were a day late in the expenses report of Stewart Hosie - the local daily, the Courier mentioned the full details yesterday. He no doubt gave them a copy of the full details. If other MP’s start doing this then the Telegraph’s timetable will be destabilised.
205.”MrJones says:
22/5/2009 at 8:14 pm
197. I sort of agree but my point was there’s a bunch of people who disliked her for mini-Palin type reasons long before this blew up and disproportionate attacks on her are partly due to those reasons.”
Good point, I almost posted that she seems to be the Sarah Palin pin up girl on here these days, the one that people throw indiscriminate darts at. Or that she personafies that ‘ditzy ex girlfriend’.
I don’t agree with her on a few issues, I just think that she does get an unfair roasting on here. Take that 5 Live interview, someone immediately flagged up that Nadine Dorris was having a car crash, basically she had had the temerity to speak on air. Much more interesting, she and Victoria Derbyshire obviously did not hit it off.
218
Runrig were pretty good, what a come down to be an MP
.
.
I took my car in for a service recently. The computer said it was due. Luckily nothing needed doing. Oh, I had paid £190 for servicing for the first 3 years. I just wonder if I was paying would they have found something to do.
Well the Telegraph’s UKIP support seems dubious……
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/local-elections/5369813/Local-elections-2009-fact-and-fiction-on-planet-Ukip.html
Hat tip to Guido and good on Beau Do D’or
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29cB075cqks&feature=player_embedded
Sum’s it all up pretty well
What might be worth taking a look at is what happens post the Euros. I suspect that once the public get to vent their collective spleen focus may return once again to the economy. Labour could end up wishing that the expenses scandal was still to the forefront.
I took a view a couple of months back that we should see an easing in the rate of decline of the economy with stagnancy for much of 2010 but the UK is an interesting case of an economy that speculators would take a pop at in way that they just wouldnt with others. ‘Market’ perception therefore could well be negative and that will filter through in the money go round process that funds everything.
I freely admit that I failed to predict the relative strength of sterling recently (at least against the dollar) but since there really appears to be no attempt to try to hold state debt back, I would reckon there’s a decent chance of a serious financial run on UK PLC.
Whilst some may reckon that the machinations of the markets all may appear a bit distant to voters such runs a) can filter through to the ‘real’ economy and b)voters do get engaged when they see evidence that their country is seen as a basket case.
And they dont like it.
Anthony Wells carries news of an ICM poll carried out at the beginning of May for the Taxpayers Alliance who embargoed the results until today . It had both GE and EU poll figures which of course have been overtaken by events
GE Con 41 Lab 27 LD 21 Others 11
EU Con 32 Lab 28 LD 22 UKIP 9 Others 9
There were many other questions on the EU and taxation .
I am now bored by the Telegraph expose. And even if they turn up something really big now, all the tat they have printed and sensationalised in between, will take the edge of it I suspect.
@224: I think you’re absolutely right; all the indicators that mean anything to “real” people (whoever we are) are going to be negative for at least the next year - even if other indicators bottom out or start to improve.
This might have a counter-intuitive betting effect, though - Labour might start to firm up a little on the markets if punters think they can see the green shoots before the trend (and that this will help Labour), even if the opinion polls continue on their steady long-term downward trend.
Given that we’ve already seen that Labour support can break through the 23% mark, I wonder where that trend will actually bottom out? I suspect that 20%+/- is the real bottom, unless/until the LD’s find a way of attracting long-term tribal Labour voters.
NP MP, as others have pointed out, the car will need new oil, and other checks once a year. The first MOT ought to be fairly straight forward, but do check that your lights, wipers work before you take it in. Some garages will try it on, and claim that bulbs or wiper blades need replacing, its a bit naughty, and a bit like claiming for a second bed in a one bedroomed flat.
224: The simple fact is that while there are still MPs that have not been through the gutter the expenses story has finally run out of legs. Brown/Cameron/Clegg have got it to a point where nothing else (substantial) will happen before the end of the summer. Once that is over there will be two stories that dominate the media between now and the election (probably in June 2010).
‘It’s The Economy stupid’
and
‘The Anti-Brown Plot’
(AKA ‘How does the labour party prevent complete meltdown’)
Both of them are bad for labour and for brown.
Just been looking through the Telegraph expenditure coverage and noticed something that I’m sure will make Tim feel good. Caroline Spelman has been identified as one of the saints.
Even better she is listed as a Labour MP. Did I miss a story somewhere?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5349413/MPs-expenses-Full-list-of-Labour-MPs-investigated-by-the-Telegraph.html
230.jsfl, priceless.
And so it goes on. Another Conservative in the frame:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5368993/MPs-expenses-Tory-MP-Jonathan-Djanogly-claimed-almost-5000-for-automatic-gates.html
230 - She can join Geoffrey Robinson and Michael Meacher in the Saints Club! F###kin idiots at the Telegraph.
232 - The development for me was the Telegraph now doing the 2nd jobs angle! Tories will start getting very worried, not because they have done anything wrong with regards 2nd jobs (well not the likes of Hague who is mentioned), but it will just play into that big home, loads of money, 2nd job, why are they claiming (the Fiddling Farmer Tupac angle, i.e “Means Test the Bastards” which plays well with certain elements of the public).
Djanogly has to be in massive trouble. Funny, I heard him on the radio discussing expenses and making no reference to his own.
tim has ‘dumped’ Caroline for Nadine.
235 - It seems like he knew it was coming, already agreed to pay back £25k earlier this week. Wonder if actually they held this one back in case of a slow day on the trail of the troughers, as no mention of others to be named as is the norm with the “taster”.
235. “The MP installed the gates following security fears after he helped constituents threatened by animal rights activists over their links to the animal-testing company Huntingdon Life Sciences.”
If that is the case i don’t object to the gates but charging for cleaners and Digi boxes etc.
235.Woody, my other half pointed out the important bit about that story - note the constituency he lives in? I would imagine that he has quite a few constituents that get targeted by the animal rights lobby?
238 - I want to know where he got his frigging Digi boxes (£846 for 2 of them), mine cost me £20! Were they gold plated?
236. Sally. I’m sure she will be ‘heartbroken’
Re Djanogly - if it’s true he was advised to get security gates because of the nutters who attacked HLS, then I don’t mind that. These people are pure evil, I have some personal experience via a friend.
12 grand for gardening though, takes the p1ss. You don’t need a gardener to be an MP. Simple.
240.
Yes mine cost about that! Maybe he has a gold and diamond tooth pick with it!
Is it just me, or are we getting a hell of a lot Tories being done over by the Telegraph this week?
240 - i’m sure that they can pick up UK Gold at that price, could be the price of a digital TV?
244 Christina nope it is not just you.
244 - Chris I am sure someone in the Tory party has annoyed the Barclay Bros. An agenda from Sark imho.
245 - I think that is what it probably is, but it says digi boxes in the article.
239. Very true, could be an acceptable claim if done under advice.
244. Looking that way, I am starting to wonder what the Telegraph motivations are at this point. Is it them nasty Barclay brother’s trying to surge UKIP?
Have you reported the by election at Barton on Humber in North Lincolnshire Council held yesterday. Barton is in the Cleethorpes Constituency.
Con 1576 (1438)
Lab 653 ( 603)
Lib 220 ( 438)
This is a three member ward; figures in brackets are for the best of the three 1n 2007
244 Never mind. Dave will be the first party leader to be able to choose his own party.
249 - Don’t forget Brogan, Pierce and Porter relationship with McBride. Just saying….
Sky: MacKay being shouted down, claiming he had 75% backing at his meeting. “You wouldn’t let the chair take a poll!”
Support ebbing away…
251 Seems like it.
247.Marcia, the Tories have been annoying the Telegraph ever since Cameron became leader.
Must admit that the shannigans on Sark are worrying, how long has that island been chuntering on in its own unique way before they came along?
253 Good.
253 Good news. Hurrah.
He was sent home to get eaten: a lesson to the rest.
255 The Barclay brothers are a repulsive pair, worse than any MP. But what matters is not the messanger, but the message.
252.Its always in the background.
249. Woody - Not if you read the article in the Telegraph tonight.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/local-elections/5369813/Local-elections-2009-fact-and-fiction-on-planet-Ukip.html
255 They annoyed the Telegraph by MAKING Dave leader.
And keeping him.
If we help to make him Britain’s next PM, they will never forgive us.
The polls are all over the place but i still expext labour to get thrashed. If they dont do as badly as expected, so much the better. With brown in place for the elction the final rout will be so much bigger when it comes ! Yay!
253. According to a reporter who was not allowed into the meeting who got her information from god knows who. Could have been the chair of one of the other local parties for all we know.
It’s no more than hearsay……..
260. Perhaps they want to rule us themselves from Sark then!!
Bracknell Conservatives internet site in good. It invites you to leave a message. Just scroll down.
I have done so. I must be one of Mr Mackay’s 25%!
253. Car-crash TV. Apparently he was called “a thief, a liar and a scamster” to his face. Shouting match with people outside the hall when he claimed to Sky he had “75% support”….
255 yes, the bullies got their just desserts
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/dec/11/sark-democracy-election-votes
Mackay is a **** and should be ashamed of himself.
Remember £9,000 for a kitchen and £6,000 for window cleaning (G. Brown). Why is that OK (per D.Telegraph) and yet gardening (maintenance) and security gates are a problem. We must all stop being manipulated.
268 James. Leave them a message.
http://www.bracknellconservatives.com/
The man who provided the CDs is unveiled
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5369066/MPs-expenses-whistleblower-John-Wick-on-why-he-set-the-scandal-running.html
Interesting nugget at the bottom. Bercow is paying Inland revenue £6k CGT. Is he really the sort who should become speaker?
MacKay on Sky
“claiming support that apparently wasn’t the case…”
267.Marcia, I always loved the quirky way they did things on Sark, maybe it reminds me of all those lost Scottish communities that didn’t survive the 20th century. I was really saddened when I read about what they were up to on Sark a wee while ago.
news 24 today and HIGNFY = TORY BASHING = don’t mess with the bbc license fee.
The Conservatives have had their worst TV and radio exposure yesterday and today since this whole story broke.
Steen, Dorries and Mackay have all been utterly shambolic. Cameron needs to get himself back in the headlines instead of his backbenchers. That Steen interview was just replayed on HIGNFY. The audience certainly weren’t laughing.
Mackay and Kirkbride should both be deselected
End of
275 Yes.
275 ,and james Gray.
271.Sorry, but listening to some good music and enjoying a glass of my favourite red Oz. Its Friday night, chill out time.
Christina - saw a lot of Tory posters in the Teignmouth and Torbay area today. A couple of LD’s and one UKIP. Marcus must be doing something.
With that, goodnight all
188. Thanks for the duck house clarification. I feel plenty of indignation about what’s been going on in Westminster, but I feel even more outraged that the media are manipulating my anger like this. The whole point is to get some honesty and transparency into the MPs expenses. If it’s all turned into political game playing with facts twisted and turned to suit the media’s bias, (and the favourite sport is undoubtedly Get A Tory witness HIGNFY)then it’s clear the public, yet again, are just being held in contempt by the political class. Frankly it stinks.
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279. Nite Marcia, will email you for a blether about Michael Martin’s seat. I got my leaflets from the Tories and the SNP over the last couple of days.
270. “The man who provided the CDs is unveiled”
Well done him imo. 25% dirty, 25% clean, rest in the middle - sounds about right. 25% to get beasted mercilessly, 50% left alone and 25% to get a choccy biscuit and a gold star.
282. Just as long as the right people are in the correct categories.
I was in the studio audience for the HIGNFY yesterday, and, as far as I remember, the stuff they cut out was all the anti-MP-generally and the anti-Labour stuff, and they left in the anti-Tory stuff. They filmed about 45 minutes on expenses, and cut it right down.
The question on the Hum was as ridiculous as it seemed.
283. True
280.”but I feel even more outraged that the media are manipulating my anger like this. The whole point is to get some honesty and transparency into the MPs expenses. If it’s all turned into political game playing with facts twisted and turned to suit the media’s bias, (and the favourite sport is undoubtedly Get A Tory witness HIGNFY)then it’s clear the public, yet again, are just being held in contempt by the political class. Frankly it stinks.”
That is why I disagree with Sean Fear@258. “But what matters is not the messanger, but the message.”
I genuinely believed that MP had got his duck island. And that is why I have been putting up such a stalwart defence of Nadine Dorris today. And she is getting it in the neck for simple being the only MP to stand up and face the storm full on. Good on her!
197 ken - re: ND MP, unlike PB’s own NP MP, she is most decidedly an over-the-top, thrill-a-minute, offene/offensive-is-best-defense personality type.
So now she is performing as might be expected, in high C.
Which is offputting to many (including me, but was never a fan) but reckon it’s suitable for her core audience. AND if she survives the current flap, will add to her luster.
“What does not kill me, is by definition not bad publicity.”
It seems bizarre that MP’s dont get it.. and if anything its more of a reason for them to be deselected if they are so out of touch.
282 What that article doesn’t say is, what position he was in so that he could get his hands on the CD in the first place.
289 - Perhaps it was mysteriously left lying on a bench in a park.
One issue for me: The tories are repaying things that are quite within the rules (Cameron maintenance -wisteria etc) and all the others. Labour are not. Has Follet repaid the £25,000 for the private security yet? Brown repaid the cleaning? etc etc. In a way the problem is that, if you repay you accept that there is a problem. If you don’t (Labour) then you take the immediate pain but not the acceptance later that it was wrong. Thus decency and dealing with the problem in public can count against you.For example Mackay tonight. Labour equivalents are in hiding. This is bad in the short term for the tories, but will be better in the long term when the election comes.
290. It was part of the MOD’s Free Laptops 4 Journalists campaign.
290: probably found on a train in an envelope with the follwing written on it…
‘MPs Expenses Please do not read this’
‘No… PLease’
Here is video of Mackay after his constituency meeting
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8064642.stm
275. Personally i would deselect about 40 Tories including David Davis, Ancram, Mackay, Kirkbride, Maples, Gove and many other seen in here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5349372/MPs-expenses-Full-list-of-Conservative-MPs-investigated-by-the-Telegraph.html
I think that about half the Labour Cabinet need desecting as well along with quite a few Labour & Liberal Democrat MP.
Given the useless idiots on both sides of the house have blindly enabled Labour to give this country a longterm economic outlook as lively as a rotten badger carcuss. Outside jobs should be banned as well and the number of MPs reduced to 300. They can earn there money as MPs or naff off!
The whole system is completly unacceptable and i despise the t0ssers who oppose change on this corrupt and shameless system!
290, 292 - Isn’t that how government agencies test their security procedures, by leaving computers & cds with vital personal infomation in taxi cabs, wine bars, knocking shops, etc?
Compare and contrast Labour, one big name Martin, gone.
Two suspended and one leaves cabinet post. Apart from the chipmunk you can’t find a cabinet minister anywhere.
Brown has them all hidden and under orders not to speak.
Cons, Dave acts big, and gets a good press.
However Steen, Dories,and Mckay can’t keep themselves out of the headlines.
Tories going of like random fireworks.
Brown contols his party Dave does not.
291. Would have been worse if Cameron hadn’t jumped quick as he did - Pravda was always going to spin it as anti-Tory a they could get away with.
This expenses stuff is raidly turning into a PR disaster for the Tory Party. First Steen. Then Mad Nad. Now Mckay. David Cameron has got to get a grip because right now the next election is going down the pan.
286. ChistineD - in fact the lies by omission about the duck house entirely vindicate what Nadine has been saying. The media has now whipped up such a climate of abuse (witchunt/Macarthyism - call it what you like) that if anyone dares speak out, like Nadine, they inevitably get it in the neck. The expenses scandal did start out as a genuine revelation of malpractice, but it’s rapidly degenerating into a very vicious power struggle using some very dirty tactics.
An excited SNP staffer I know sent me the following Scottish breakdown from the ITV/Populus poll:
SNP 41%
Lab 27%
Con 20%
Lib 10%
They say that’s just the Westmnster breakdown and the Europe gap has been greater.
Ironically this staffers native counry aint in the EU!
305 - I wouldn’t go that far.
296. Martin Day……
Given the useless idiots on both sides of the house have blindly enabled Labour to give this country a longterm economic outlook as lively as a rotten badger carcuss.
No Martin it was the electorate who blindly enabled Labour to do this by voting them in 3 times and giving them a large majority.
News at Ten lead on MacKay…
Djanogly is a complete idiot. His family is worth £300 million and yet he makes claims. What’s the point?
I am against means testing expenses, but come on. Claiming a £5000 gate is the equivalent of someone whose family has £30000 in the bank claiming half a penny. Even if you can, why?
301
Martin, I am so glad you are not in charge!!!. There are judgement calls to be made, to suggest that anyone the Telegraph highlights as a villain is risible. I do hope the DT makes enough money out of the sales its getting to cover for some court cases that will almost inevitably follow from MP’s who feel (in some cases) justifiably aggrieved.
300. Car crash TV. Although Mackay seems to have been decent enough. After that interview he just can’t go on.
303 Bow Locks (as Hackney Wick residents would say).
News at 10: Nad says “it’s the politicians you should be feeling sorry for”
anyway, on the bright side.. St Helens 22 Harlequins 12. Final result
313 - Agree I can’t see him surviving but he just seems arrogant. He should have gone immediately. He shouldn’t be trying to cling on for grim death.
Jesus, just watched the Mackay video. He looked shifty and evasive, with a tin ear for the mood of the people around him. Just kept repeating about how 3/4 of the people there applauded him. Desperate stuff.
287.&306.SSI&Oscar, I quite often disagree with Nadine on grammar schools etc. But on this issue, she is being a gutsy lady trying to fight a rear guard action on her own against the Telegraph and the media juggernaut in general. She isn’t defending the system that was in place, but she is worried about the whole effect on our MP’s and Parliament.
I defended her performance on QT on here recently, I am used to the Tory guest getting a rough ride on the Scottish programme’s, but the BBC obviously wanted it to stir things up a bit in Gordon Brown’s own backyard. She could have turned it down, I certainly wouldn’t have blamed her. But the audience, and in particular David Steele were really rude, you could almost feel the hostile environment.
She did come across quite well on 5 Live today, and I am willing to bet that a few people did stop and listen to her. They noted that she got some positive feedback in the emails after she had finished. She reminds me of a friend, her dad always reckoned she could take on a hell with a bucket of water and win. They are from the Islands by the way, since when did being feisty or passionate become such a negative?
309 I do firmly believe that in a democratic state, the voters get precisely the politicians that they deserve.
Sky have a video inside MacKay’s meeting!
People screaming
RUBBISH! RUBBISH! RUBBISH!
Thanks for the car service tips, everyone. I’ll take your advice and have a service - which will keep me off the campaign trail for half a day, as was doubtless your evil plan :-).
There was a fair amount of grumbling from Labour people that the Telegraph focused on Labour initially - I suspect the actual numbers of debatable cases are proportional to the party size, so they’re just catching up with more Tories this week. As someone else said, the nature of the criticised expenditure does seem to vary by party - Labour MPs are mostly accused of doing up their London flats lavishly, Tories mostly of pretending their second home is some palatial estate and using the money to mkae it yet more palatial. I’m not sure the electorate makes any distinction, though.
Someone said here that the climax is supposed to be that a Cabinet Minister is revealed as having an affair. Well, tut, no doubt, but if there isn’t a financial angle it seems an odd note to close on, doesn’t it?
1. Steen should have been de-whipped yesterday lunchtime as soon as that dreadful interview went out.
2. Nadine - Not a lot you can do about her.
3. McKay should have announced days ago that he wouldn’t be standing at the next election.
Can someone explain to me what Cameron is doing?
276 - careful Rod, your getting excited, your mask of impartiality might begin to slip
BTW in your earlier post (270) you stated “shouting match …” I saw that clip and one bloke shouted at him, he did not shout back.
Got to say though that the video footage taken at the meeting made clear it would not have been a comfortable meeting for him.
Oh well, shame
309. It was not the electorate but the electoral system that has delivered three Labour Govts, all on a minority vote with 64% voting against them in 2005.
MacKay: “And I mean this most sincerely folks, I won the clapometer!”
Jeeeezzz….
On a lighter note…
http://www.dorries.org.uk/
Click this link, then try to click onto her blog…
323 - Probably waiting to know all the details. Also he has told Steen to shut up or his feet won’t touch. I think he is trying to be reasonably fair not simply be a one man lynch mob.
323 Cameron has lost that decisiveness we saw on Monday (albeit only so far for a day) and it is hurting him very badly.
And why did Dorries defy his call? It seemed pretty plain to me from all the briefing this lunchtime that the leadership was completely adamant that she had to stop doing interviews. Yet she seems to have done another TV interview for the BBC 10 o’clock news.
Is Cameron starting to lose control of his backbenchers?
326. There must have been an anti-Mackay swingback in the audience before he was interviewed outside.
Mackay has to go,come on cameron,get rid of him.
329 - Your talking rot, I’d rather have someone who is decisive after a brief pause to reflect. I don’t want someone blundering about making things worse.
Dorries can defy anyones call, no doubt she will face the consequences.
No Cameron is not losing control of his party.
303 - “Brown contols his party Dave does not.”
Thanks for that belly laugh
If he had de-whipped Steen and made an example of him, maybe Nad wouldn’t feel compelled to make such a bloody fool of herself and the Conservative Party.
329: ‘Is Cameron starting to lose control of his backbenchers?’
Calm down there…
332. He looked weak on Sky “I am not whiter than white, but I haven’t claimed for a moat, a swimming pool or a duck house…”
Seems to think it’s a laughing matter now.
334 - Nad is a loose cannon, so I dont think anything would shut her up short of coshing her on the back of the head.
332
Mackay is losing thousands of votes for his party with every minute he is on TV. What a stereotype gruesome tory
Posh, can’t say his “R”s and on the take. A lethal cocktail
Come on Cameron, Alan Sugar would know what to say…
329.”Is Cameron starting to lose control of his backbenchers?”
You wish.
It seems some people are getting over exited. Its not a lynch mob. DC taking action within 24/48 rs contrasts very favourably with Gordo who defers to an NEC committee and kicks everything (except Blears) into the long grass.
334. The Steen quote has undone 5 years of work. It will be replayed over and over, whatever Cameron does now….
GIN. If you feel so strongly, turn your fire on all their associations. They all have email adresses on line.
329 That is not what her blog says. She says says she was told to take down the article and stop doing her conspiracy theories about the Barclays bros. This she has done.
319 ChD - fear (for your sake) you may be overestimating ND MP’s appeal to the public.
True, she does get some respect for fighting spirit.
However, downside is that she’s defending the indefensible.
Just one example, the bit the duck island the taxpayers didn’t pay for - as SeanT noted last night, the MP in question DID make the claim. Fact that payment wasn’t forthcoming is mitigation, not absolution.
Yes, we want the acussed to have a spirited defense, even better a spirited self defense. BUT doesn’t follow that we want ‘em getting off. Not really.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8064731.stm
The man behind the leak.
Cameron needs to be rid of these people he is throwing to the wolves (i.e. constituents). Better for him to get the bad eggs out and the bad publicity through before there is an election.
Actually, to have MPs thrown out locally rather than by central diktat is the way to go for all parties. If they are dismissed by a party leader then it just stores up problems, let the members let off steam and let them be judged by those who know them better.
“Sean Fear says:
22/5/2009 at 10:01 pm
303 Bow Locks (as Hackney Wick residents would say).”
Nothing to me as i’m neither tory nor labour i’m just calling it as i see it.
“3 Cheers for Gordon Brown” i heard this week.
(Hackney Wick) is that slang for thick?
334. Have you been drinking? Or are you just wishful thinking? Steen is going. Just about all Labour’s weeping sores are still there in the background.
336 - You really are sanctimonious, I reckon that all the circuit comedians haven’t had so much material in years. Cameron is a political figure engaging with his audience.
“Alan Sugar would know what to say…”
What an awful man, the worst advert for business anywhere. Anyone who manages like that should be shot, he makes David Brent look good.
332 James Burdett
I am absolutely sure that CCHQ have excellent media watching teams. They would have picked up on the Steen WATO interview almost immediately.
That was very public and very clear-cut lunacy. Yet it took Cameron more than a day to come up with a line (on today’s WATO) to take - and it wasn’t a dewhipping, just the threat of one. His delay meant Hague couldn’t give a clear-cut answer on Question Time yesterday.
And if backbenchers like Dorries are openly defying the leadership of a party which was so united just days ago - well, it isn’t a healthy sign.
Of course Cameron is a far better leader than Brown. That is a given. And of course the PCP is far more united than the PLP.
But on this site we watch for the signs that things might be changing. All the media emphasis today has been on the Conservatives, and rightly so in my opinion.
Cameron has had more than enough time to investigate the MacKay case fully. Indeed, it came out of his own internal investigation. He wasn’t dewhipped for what is the closest case (on the Conservative side) to fraud - and instead, you get things like tonight 10 o’clock lead on his constituency meeting.
Brown is dithering as usual, we expect that. But signs that Cameron isn’t holding the Conservatives together (even if they are just small signs) are very interesting.
337.James, the Tory party is full of mavericks, it separates us from the lemmings on the Labour benches. If we win the next GE, its going to be a rough ride, so put your seatbelt on now.
303 - I see the pubs have let out early (or are you Adrian Harper in disguise?)
341.”RodCrosby says:
22/5/2009 at 10:17 pm
334. The Steen quote has undone 5 years of work. It will be replayed over and over, whatever Cameron does now….”
Rod, are you worried it might effect your swing back if that doesn’t prove to be true? I smell desperation seeping in.
341 - In your dreams.
340. I don’t think I’m getting over-excited at all. Have you actually seen the news this evening? The Conservative Party looks absolutely, stunningly dreadful tonight. As things stand tonight, do you honestly, hand on heart think that if Brown decided to follow Camerons advice and call an election on Monday, that Cameron could secure a majority? After everything you’ve seen this evening? Because I don’t think he could. We’d be looking at a Hung Parliament as of tonight, IMO.
336 - Rod, I know you hate the Tories with a passion, but pffffffff…. are you on a sugar rush or something?
Djangoly was advised years ago to put up those gates against at the anti science nutters wasn’t he.if so leave him alone
Very positive ITN News floating voter focus group for Cameron!
Calm down dears.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5364829/MPs-expenses-David-Camerons-dream-party–will-come-after-the-nightmare.html
339 ChristinaD
No, I don’t wish.
Given I am almost certainly going to vote Conservative (as an anti-Labour vote) at the next General Election - I would strongly hope the next Prime Minister had a very clear agenda and a party united to deliver it.
I’m merely pointing out that, on today’s evidence, Cameron seems to have lost his grip just a tad.
A note on how things may come across.
Is there not that old little curiosity of politics that punishing/apologising can play worse than denying/hiding.
“Cameron sacks MP” is not a headline that benefits the Tories I think, esp when Labour appear to be adopting a ‘heads down’ approach.
The fantasising of some of the posters on here that the media are out to get the Tories I find extraordinary. It’s like being in a parallel universe.
358
Not suprised at all. Cameron gets it totally. I have enormous respect and confidence in him.
I wonder what the focus groups say about Brown?
350 - Look these are extraordinary times so I think a little more leeway than is usual is probably in order. Remember that Cameron is in the middle of local and Euro election campaigning as well as having to deal with the fall out from the expenses. I don’t think a delay on Steen is the end of the earth. I think that you are comprehensively misreading what is going on.
361 - I don’t think so at this point - people scent, want and demand blood. Brown trying to sneak an election before his opponents have finished the cull is politics of the most disgusting kind, has he no morals at all?
356. I hate all phonies with a passion. I concentrate my fire on the ones that happen to be ahead at the moment….
according to Sky a poll shows 2/3rds of voters want an election now.
Yep, sounds about right.
It wouldn’t deliver a hung parliament either notwithstanding some people getting carried away above.
An election will concentrate minds, 5 more years of this Government, 5 more years of Gordon?????
pleeeease
355 Yes I have seen the news. I am also out canvassing and leafleting and I think you are overreacting.
I agree that we need to see the removal of some of these people and I hope I will not be disappointed. But Cameron has a cooler head than many and it is just aswell - for I believe he will win the next election and have a hell of a lot to deal with.
311 Seems to be a suggestion that rich MPs should not claim even legitimate expenses, which really doesn’t make sense.
On the question of the £5,000 gates, this *may* have been a legitimate expense. The MP had defended members of Huntingdon Life Sciences that had been attacked by animal rights activists, and was himself a possible target. The information given by the Telegraph certainly doesn’t prove that the claim shouldn’t have been made. A poor lead story.
359
see the last paragraph. Robert Winnett is Madasafish and I claim my £5 donation to Border Collie rescue.
The idea Labour will get away with it if they keep their heads down is rubbish. It is just putting off the days of reckoning - which is just what they did when they elected Brown and saved themselves the argument.
What happens when Brown reshuffles and all those people stay on or are just demoted? They will all be examined.
What happens at the next election when they are still there?
369 John Marston
That wasn’t really meant to be a particularly serious point. I don’t support means testing MPs for expenses claim - in any way. It was more to ask why he even bothered.
EDIT: and if the gates were installed because a genuine threat that arose from work he did for his constituents rather than for his own peace of mind (a la Follett) then they are completely legitimate. Although there is potentially still a value for money issue - is £5000 a reasonable price for security gates? I don’t know.
Does CCHQ read this?
If so - listen up.
Once again, votes are in the balance. Deal with these cretins, get rid, and you will win the election.
Obfuscate, provaricate and sidestep, and people simply will not belive the tory party has changed. And they will not vote for you. This is a critical time.
Cameron has so far done a passable imitation of a man with a decent pair of cojones. Let them not shrivel now.
Mackay is up for reselection.
275 One point from the article about John Wick that has not been picked up by the media is as follows
So 12 months after the Poynter report into the loss of Child Benefit data we have yet another serious loss of data from deep within the bowels of the government. Again details of people and places and bank accounts, but this time of 600 odd potential Terrorist victims.
When the Poynter report was issued Osborne had this to say This is symptomatic of nothing less than the incompetence and systemic failure at the heart of this government. They were a guide to how not to govern this country
This seem to remain true even now.
Just for the poster upthread claimimg Gordon has a grip on his party
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1186569/I-victim-smear-campaign-says-Labour-spin-doctors-wannabe-MP-daughter-Georgia-Gould.html
didnt read all the comments but those I read were not exactly supportive of her.
355.GIN, as I said earlier, I am enjoying a glass of nice Ozzy red, and listening to music. I haven’t seen the news or HIGNFY tonight, and I bet that neither has the majority of the UK. The McBride scandal broke on a Friday night, and the paper review that evening, and in the morning were predicting a storm in a teacup.
360.wibbler, this is a great site, when you see the Tory crew having a collective break down over Cameron then its a worry.
Im a big cameron fan, but if he doesnt start sacking his mps then he can forgot my vote at these elections. Its trully pathetic. I expect it from brown since he’s totally at his mps mercy. cameron isnt. he can get rid of whoever he wants. if he is this pathetic and weak at his peak, what the hell is he going to be like after 3 or for years of being pm? and how on earth can he go about firing the quangos when he wont sort out his own house. Paying back all this money is good, but its moved beyond that now. I really do hope cameron is simply holding back until his scrutiny committee has finish processing everyone so that he can do a mass cleanse.
Incidently, i wonder whether this is the reason why the telegraph keep focusing on tory mps? im guessing that as soon as the committee is done it’ll publish the claims which would spike the DT guns.
373. I agree. The more blood Cameron spills the more votes the Tories will get come the election, he has to be fair but by God he also has to punish the bastards.
371. Compared to what it would be like if Brown sacked half the front bench? They’re better off. And by keeping their heads down the media are now focussing mostly on the Tories because that’s where things are happening.
Don’t know if someone posted:
“Brown faces Cabinet split on future of Hazel Blears”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6346103.ece
377
ChristinaD . I am not having a breakdown, far from it, I am listening to the Moody Blues at the Royal Albert Hall. My favourite track is here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a97d5bUCFVQ&NR=1
I have more faith in Cameron than some on here. I think he will be a great leader despite the problems he will face.
378.Ryans, how many Tory MP’s have decided to stand down in light of the Telegraph revelations? McKay had to go, and just a couple of days ago Cameron listed the ways that an MP could be deselected, he ain’t daft, we don’t do things the same way as the Labour party. There would be a riot if Cameron didn’t allow the local associations some independence to take the decision themselves.
For those who are betting!
“The Times has been told by informed sources that Lord Mandelson will not be moved to the Foreign Office, and that David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, has been assured that this is the case.”
The death was announced tonight of The Tory Party, caused by blows from several lunatics escaped from an asylum known as Parliament.
After serious attacks over several days from lunatics including Hogg, Ancram, McKay, Viggers, Duncan, and Maude, the coup de grace was delivered by Steen (’Im a rich Tory and you poor people don’t count’) and Dorries (’I really am a lunatic’). The eulogy will be given by the chief beneficiary The Labour Party and is as follows: “Five More Years”.
362 “The fantasising of some of the posters on here that the media are out to get the Tories I find extraordinary. It’s like being in a parallel universe.”
Pravda have been blatantly anti-Tory since 92. I recall seeing BBC journos crying in the studio when Major won and since then they haven’t left anything to chance. Certainly not in 97 with the well known story of champagne bottles littering Beeb House.
Partly as a reaction to that Cameron’s lot have embraced the BBC’s social liberal agenda either because they believe it or because they thought it would lead to them getting an easier ride. Not at all surprising that the more socially conservative segment are bitter and resentful and some of that resentment is reflected in the Mail and Telegraph. Exactly the same thing happened in the Labour party in the 80s with the triumph of PC.
So I’d say most of the media is anti Tory / Cameron but for widely different reasons. Obviously it’s quite hard for them to keep it up consistently because this government is the worst in British history and they can’t just ignore that completely, apart from Pravda of course.
373. Yes I agree!
Labour ‘doing nothing’ will not get them anywhere - When i moan upthread of some tory MPs this is not a critism of Cameron as I feel he has the correct humble attitude on this.
It is the stupid old fools who moan about the system and just carry on creaming. The whole system needs a red hot poker up its innerds! I am not talking about the Fees office but the whole process of government and representation. Not necessiraly a PR element but a seperation in powers. Some LDs on a previous thread thought this was me endourding them - they were wrong i have had my views for quite a few years. What i have said i would like to see is a directly elected PM who picks his Ministers from outside the Commons and Senate (Instead of Lords).
A Huge slash in MP numbers (To 300) and maximum of 100 Senators.
You could have PR in the Commons as the Commons would no longer pick the Government (The Executive)- the People would through direct election. The Commons and Senate would have a similar function to the Congress in the US. I have advocated this system for a number of years on PB and indeed it was nice to see on the Week in Politics last night an Historian advocate a similar set-up.
Cameron. Is starting to slip a bit- classic ore detox coverage today..
Today has been a bad news cycle for the Tories no doubt about it. Steen’s madness and Dorries self pity look awful. It may be unfair that Labour are the more criminal and yet the Tories are getting attacked as their stories are more sensational, clearly the BBC are going to relish attacking the Tories in the way they have no desire to attack Labour(just look at have I got news for you tonight). Therefore the silly whingeing has to stop.
There’s a practical and ethical issue for all party leaders, isn’tt there? X is accused of something outrageous. He says it’s not so bad because of some complicated explanation. Does the party leader
(a)expel/deselect him at once (looks decisive, but may be unfair) ?
(b)ask an investigative team to look into it, perhaps suspending in the meantime (fair, but slow and looks bureaucratic) ?
(c) say it sounds jolly bad and the local party will need to consider its position (sounds democratic, but in practice will normally enable X to stay on) ?
(d) kick him out of the parliamentary party? (if he’s too bad to reselect, should he still be part of the team?)
(e) refrain from comment at all (avoids extending the story but could store up trouble)?
Labour is doing (b) and (d) for the apparently worst cases. The LibDems are mostly doing (e). The Tories are doing a bit of all of them, *except* (d). The weakness of Cameron’s position is that there is a limit to how often you can say “my patience with my colleagues is nearly exhausted” if it never actually exhausts.
I’ve done about 8 hours of campaigning today. Only one person mentioned expenses and that was the legendary performance of Anthony Steen (fair enough really given this is Devon). I think posters here are getting very overexcited.
I’m not a fan of Cameron but hard to see how he can get the black cap out quite yet when he doesn’t know how many he has to despatch. He might find himself like the referee who tries to stamp his authority on the match with a red card early on but ends up with a five a side by half time.
385,well said sir.
362. Jon: The fantasising of some of the posters on here that the media are out to get the Tories I find extraordinary.
I suggest you read PSJ’s post #290 in this thread.
Peter Hain on Newsnight ! They must be desperate !
381 Me
With the worst news cycles the Conservatives have had for days today, Labour cabinet members decide to start their infighting.
Good to be reminded that you can always trust New Labour to screw up.
382.MTF, I am still gently meandering my way through my 80’s collection. Now listening to The Cult and The Cure tonight.
387 - I think Conservative High Command can afford to suffer the odd bad news cycle. It is rather like sacrificing your rook when you are three moves from Checkmate.
383. This isnt the time for backdoor leadership. Reselection just doesnt resonate with the public. Real action now is required. The associations wouldnt say a thing and even if they did it wouldnt matter if cameron took the bull by the horns and threw these people out. People dont vote for associations, they vote for parties, particularly the leader. Cameron can do whatever he wants to unlike brown. Have you seen the new reports?? full of steen and mackay followed by the line ‘cameron is very angry’ Im sorry, not good enough.
393- Wibbler, they just can’t help themselves! Imagine how it will be when Brown announces his reshuffle.
391 read it - and I’ve got some News for both of you. HIGNFY is meant to be funny - and it would be hard to deny the Tory expense claims are a lot funnier than anything anyone else has managed. The sheer other-worldliness of it is astounding. The BBC played the Steen clip because it was very very amusing and revealing at the same time.
394
I am a bit earlier than you Christina !! I found a video of Telstar by the Tornados the other day. Great tune but look at the guys performing.. OMHG>>>>>>
http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=GB&hl=en-GB&v=fj1noZXziDU
387.Nadine’s self pity? Oh please.
388. “The weakness of Cameron’s position is that there is a limit to how often you can say “my patience with my colleagues is nearly exhausted” if it never actually exhausts.”
388
c) would only allow them to stay on until the next election. Interesting if some of the local associations would choose to commit electoral suicide that way.
Another MP stands down, not implicated in expenses…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/8064383.stm
Rifkind on Newsnight wanting reform. I feel a Speaker candidacy coming on.
Liking my 40-1.
403 - Oh he would be a good speaker.
388 Apart from b) in Labours case is going to look into those that broke the rules. We all know nobody broke the rules so it is a charade in classic Gordon Brown style.
Also D) Labour haven’t kicked anybody out as I understand, you have just suspended them and spun it as removing the whip, is that not the case.
402 Everyone will assume that it is - when the reality is probably that he would be electoral toast even if he hadn’t claimed his salary.
385. I think a lot of Tories enjoy the ‘us against the world’ mentality and so overstate the level that things are stacked against them.
I am admittedly young and the defining moment of the BBC in my political memory is of it practically going to war with the government with David Kelly etc. With that in mind the accusations of ‘Pravda’ have never really rung true to my ears.
I think that (inevitably given the industry) is holds a generally liberal bias, but certainly not that it is as bad as some on here claim.
Just for balance Jonathan Ross described Gordon Brown as a ‘fake Prime Minister’ tonight.
I think Cameron will protect the Time for Change agenda at all costs. This means that he will take tough action, based on fair assessments (look at his party scrutiny ctte- it has the Senior Partner of Herbert Smith on it. That man is an absolutely top lawyer and litigator, and will be able to give opinions across the spectrum). This means short term pain. However, the danger for the election would be:-
1/You are not real change
2/ “Clean hand” celebrities taking on Tory MP’s.Kills hopes of real majority.
Cameron absolutely needs to protect the Tories against these risks. I trust him and believe he will know that and this whole affair is being dealt with in order to deal with that. Labour and Liberals may hide now, but they will have blown the change agenda and will have nowhere to hide.
395 James that is complacent, Brown has a friendly media, The tories have to fight twice as hard there is no room for complacency.
399.MTF, I love older stuff too, and I have got quite a varied collection of music. I like everything from Doris Day to Nancy Sinatra (both on her own and with Lee Hazlewood - blame my parents!)
‘These boots are made for walking’ should be the Brownites theme tune.
All time favourite song is Louie Armstrong ‘We have all the time in the world’. Heard it years ago on the Bond movie, and I still love it. Oops, big fan of Sam Cooke.
408
His programme wasn’t live though was it. I read somewhere today that his programmes will be pre recorded. Ultimate trust from the BBC… LOL and at 6 million a year too….
I would trust DC live any time over car crash Gordo. Was Gordo born with his foot in his mouth?
Christina
For once we disagree. Nadine should shut up. She is not as good on TV as she thinks she is.
410 - I don’t think the media is that Brown friendly.
The public know we are at the end of a cycle and we are in turmoil.
Bottom line is that the Tory Party is going through birth pangs; Labour, the death throws.
Both painful but with different outcomes.
415 Sally C:
I like that line about birth pangs/death throes. Good.
415
What an excellent analogy Sally C, and very poignant too.
The media is almost uniformly hostile to Brown now. Operation Save Gordon’s arse is but a distance memory at Pravda.
At the next general election, I think the only paper that won’t be explicitly or implicitly supporting Dave will be the Mirror.
409.Viewer, the one thing I never underestimate, and that is Cameron’s sheer ruthlessness. Anyone who thinks that he isn’t the strongest leader we have had since Maggie, doesn’t understand the politician. Hence the Labour party’s biggest mistake was the the silly billy bunting toff tag. They allowed that age old class prejudice to cloud their judgement on both Cameron and Osborne.
sky newspaper front pages.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Newspaper-Front-Pages-On-May-23-2009/Media-Gallery/200905415287205?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15287205_Newspaper_Front_Pages_On_May_23%2C_2009
414 Really, So the BBC, GMTV, Channel4, Dacre’s daily Mail, Porter at the Telegraph, the Guardian, The independent, Pascoe Watson at the Sun, The News of the World and the Mirror would prefer a Labour victory at least 70% of the time. It used to be worse Cameron has had to fight to get a fair hearing on any media twice as hard as Brown for 4 years. Complaceny(and arrogance) is what led to Neil Kinnock getting his head in a lightbulb in 1992, I hope the Conservative party start to remember that lesson.
Very interesting to see that the papers have (with the exception of the Telegraph) led on subjects other than expenses. Are we reaching the end of phase one?
HIGNFY was incredibly unbalanced this week but to be honest the whole program was weak compared to Rolf’s episode which was excellent and also effectively demolished both Labour & Tory alike (Duncan especially).
I’m intensely relaxed about the ‘anti Tory’ feel of the coverage today, it makes almost a change from the unremitting disaster of Labour - although I see Flint is sticking up for Blears and telling Gordo not to sack her mate.
If this drift to a negative-narrative on the Tories goes on a while longer then maybe the Great One will have enough courage to call the general election sooner rather than later.
I’m extremely sceptical of the BNP figure too.
My calculator gives
C 27 (nc)
Lab 18 (-1)
LD 14 (+2)
UKIP 5 (-7)
SNP 2 (nc)
PC 1 (nc)
Gr 2 (nc)
By the way, what do we make of the United Kingdom First Party? An anti-UKIP spoiler, like the Literal Democrats?
http://juniusonukip.blogspot.com/2009/02/uk-first-party-is-launched-by-former.html
leaves me little the wiser…
422-I hope so!
413.SallyC, its a Scots thing, I love an underdog…
421 - You can be unfriendly to more than one person at once.
On this side of the pond, an echo of the Gordon Brown school of buggering on and brazening it out:
Nancy Pelosi (dem. California), Speaker of the House a week ago publicly accused the CIA of lying to her about water boarding and other ‘enhanced interrogation techniques’ about 4-5 years ago.
She has repeatedly refused to provide any substantiating evidence about this accusation, or to discuss it further. This has become a very big deal in political coverage here and every time she faces the press there are questions about it.
At her news conference this morning, all the heavyweight democrats were there and for the first half hour made announcements about jobs, health care, the economy etc. in an attempt to divert attention before Pelosi took to the podium.
The question was asked immediately, however, and Pelosi’s response was to say that she had said all she was going to say about ‘the subject you refer to’ and would make no further comment. She said she still stood by her accusation and statement.
She then went on – and this is where you may discern some similarity with the Brown school – to say she was not going to be distracted by this and would concentrate on the big issues of providing jobs, healthcare reform etc which is what the people want. When the questioning continued, she abruptly left the podium.
426 - I don’t! I want hollowed out volcanoes, nuclear-powered helicopters, larks’ tongues in aspic, Class A narcotics, hookers and china wall ducks on expenses.
420 dr spyn
It sounds there is a ministerial story to come in tomorrow’s Telegraph… makes sense to have a big story in the Saturday edition… though I don’t recognize the minister from the photo?
429 - From someone who hasn’t much knowledge of US Politics, she always seemed a bit of an odd pick for high status.
430-
Who knows, you may get all this.
Never a good idea to ask partisans their opinion. Much fewer of you about these days, I suppose. Most of us are fed up to the teeth with the current bunch of tossers but I guess you Tories are hoping for a Blair-style love in for DC; if there is one, it may last all of ten days or so.
The problem is bigger than you think. I’m so pleased be alive at a time when a lot of people are seeing things my way.
418. It’s true there’s a past tense element to this as the tide has mostly turned in the print media (but only because it’s the worst government in British history) and even Pravda shows a few cracks now and then (but only because it’s the worst government in British history).
My point was mainly about UKIP conspracy theories and the Telegraph / Mail and all that. I think it’s more to do with old school dislike of Cameronian fluffy bunniness.
427 I suppose being a Scottish Tory means you learn to hang on, with your teeth!
Worst day for the Tories for many a long month.
Forced to be totally re-active. Beholden to whoever and whatever the Telegraph mighy chose to pick up on day after day.
It’s a truly unedifying spectacle.
All that effort by thousands of loyal supporters over several years has been blown away by a dozen or two greedy, grasping thieves and then Nadine Dorries has the bare-faced cheek says we should feel sorry for them. Give me strength!
435.SallyC, exactly!
re 435 and to be grateful for PR, even the crap AM system favoured by new Labour.
429 Tim B
Pelosi is a fantastic political operator. Her control over the House is completely ruthless.
If this lying about CIA lying story sticks then the Republicans have a great opportunity to establish a real beach-head.
Of course, like MPs expenses, it is a non-story in terms of everyday concerns - but if they can make mud stick to Pelosi, and with Reid being utterly useless, it could cause the first serious roadblocks for the Democrats in Congress.
EDIT: and her behaviour in the press conference sounds petty and petulant.
Obama (or Blair, or Cameron) would never ever do that. I can imagine Thatcher doing it. As for Brown - well, he would just tell the reporter he’s wrong ad nauseum.
431. nothing listed on the Telegraph about the Minister and friend. Tried enlarging the view on the Sky newspaper page but print was too illegibla.
Could this be the end of another relaunch of SS Gordon Brown?
436 - Oh good grief. There are too many people who are getting frightened at the first whiff of grapeshot.
436 This is True Tories on here lose the complacency please and listen to Peter from putney. On a betting front Tories mid 30s next poll in my opinion
405 - But there are two meanings to ‘not broken the rules’:
1) The MP definition of expenses, i.e. that anything goes if you can get it approved by whichever muppets signed the cheques just so long as you didn’t tell lies about what you spent. i.e. they really did buy a mega TV, really did spend thousands on gardening etc. These are the self righteous multitude who in the main seem to feel hard done by.
2) The proper definiton of expenses which is in order to carry out their job as an MP. That is how the public will judge things.
All of the claiming of following the rules, done nothing wrong etc will not be judged in a national eleciton. It will be judged in 650 local elections at the time of the GE.
Local parties can look at what happened to Hamiliton. In many cases they will have a straight choice about whether to give up the seat or give up the MP. No challenger to a sitting MP will fail to scrutinise and if necessary publicise the MP’s record. That is legitimate politics. I am sure that such work is already underway all over the country.
438.ChrisA, I love politics, and keeping it local even more I am afraid. Living in a constituency like mine has brought home the negative points about STV, even if PR has benefited my party.
Think of me as a Libdem who hates Europe on this issue.
441 I’m not frightened, I’m disgusted - aren’t you?
431. Wait a minute…. The CIA being economical with the truth? My goodness, who ever heard of such a thing? What a madwoman!
448 - I’m unhappy, I don’t tend to go for strong emotions. It clouds judgment. Yes it isn’t a happy or edifying period, but I think a more medium term view is required.
445.Voreas, sorry, but as a Scottish Tory, if I can survive the last 12 years, I ain’t going to crumble tonight. Calm down and chill out. Just look back at the last two years of this government and Brown’s premiership, lets have a bit of perspective. Do you really think a Conservative government is going to have anything other than a rough ride over the next few years, if they are elected?
John Wick full interview
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5367470/Video-MPs-expenses-whistleblower-John-Wick-explains-his-role-in-exposing-the-scandal.html
437. This government is hardly good, but doesn’t earn the epithet of worst by any stretch.
450 Agree with James and Sally C. A poor day at the wicket today but plenty of time left.
453 - Oh, care to name some that were worse?
453. The previous fag end Labour government in 1976-1979 was perhaps marginally worse. Otherwise you have to go back a long, long way.
Mackay - Oppenheim will stand against Mackay if he doesn’t step down [SKY]
The difference is that Andrew M will shortly announce he will stand down, whilst Hazel Blears will still be there (with Purnell, Hoon etc). Listened to the voice of the people, good for the Tories.
453
In my lifetime, (I can remember from Wilson 1964 onwards), its definitely the worst and the weakest Govt since then. just thinking about the Cabinet and the PM makes me shudder.
459. In terms of the pathetically mediocre personnel that it is composed of, this is definitely the worst administration for 200 years or so.
451 I am chilled but getting less so the more I comment tonight!! The difference between dealing with national problems in the aftermath of Gordon Brown’s stupidity, and Whining about how unfair life is for greedy secretive MPs is obvious to me, it should be obvious to you.
To spell it out much more whining = much less chance of Tories cleaning up Brown’s mess.
460 - Yeah this is probably the least distinguished administration since the Who-Who ministry.
Ye, I remember Oppenheim from Oxford.He ran a student campaign “Vote Oppenheim, Vote ANUS”) That was Anti-NUS (National Union of Students). The man was and is a fool.
453 corporeal
Of course you are absolutely right.
The Blair government was much worse, in that it was more effective in the damage it wrought.
Fortunately, the current government is much weaker.
459.MTF, spare a thought for the Tartan Army, I have to go back a wee while to think of a Scotland team that has struggled as much as we have over recent years. And the Rugby team ain’t much better. Glad to see big changes at youth level in progress, hopefully it will bear fruit in a few years time. Also lots happening on the golf front too.
463. Then Bracknell will have the choice of a fool or a knave.
Tories sense blood in clash of autocrats
“Gordon Brown and Mervyn King are perhaps too alike. “You sit in the room with them and you see two people thinking how much they would like to get rid of the other,” says one who has witnessed one of their frosty encounters.
The prime minister and Bank of England governor both rule with an autocratic style: both have an iron certainty that they are right.
“Mervyn runs the Bank just like Gordon used to run the Treasury,” says a government official.
(…)
For his part, Mr King sees a Tory government as the best chance for the Bank to reclaim some of the powers it lost to the Financial Services Authority in 1997.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2ccf60f8-4701-11de-923e-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
Dear me! I haven’t seen this much Tory panic on here since Gordon was saving the world and the Labour deficit narrowed to a point or two. Still, at least sacking George Osborne isn’t the panacea of consensus this time round.
468 - There are one or two people having a fit of the vapours, most of us are not panicking.
468. There is something about being in opposition for so long.
Nadine’s blog has been off line now for about 2 hours.
461.Voreas, we had a big scandal up in Scotland a few years ago. The cost of that eyesore that ruins the Edinburgh skyline, and the expenses of our MSP’s, both issues are now gaining a bit of traction again in light of recent events in Holyrood. In fact, it made our local paper this week. Come the 2007 election, it didn’t even hit the radar when it came to the issues the voters were interested in at that election.
Now, at this minute, they want a GE. Will Gordon Brown give them one?
If the GE is not in the next six months, it will be decided on the economy and the record of this government and Gordon Brown. That is not complacency, just being a realist.
467 Merv is not wrong.
468: It is not Tory panic (just you live in hope). I have absolutely no doubt that Labour will lose the next election (big time). The issue and danger for the Tories (and Country in my opinion) is to stop some factor halting the Tories from winning clearly. That danger is the Lib Dems or some outside clean hands grouping. Cameron has the first ok as of now, but the pain of reselection/resignation (with a probable short term drop in polls)is about focussing the clean hands/celebs on labour and is thus critical to the GE.Goodnight
Time will tell but I think a lot of the long term consequences of the damage done isn’t obvious yet e.g in some areas it’s normal now that you can’t assume a non simple minded youngster can read and write.
468, 469:
Yes fair enough, there are some cooler heads about who don’t think that one day’s BBC News headlines are going to alter history. But this is the wackiest PB.com thread I’ve seen in a while: Andrew MacKay’s speech impediment will bring about a hung parliament and so on…
We have also had days on here where Tory posters thought the days events would see us surge in the polls, only to be dissappointed.
475. Relax, you can.
Every generation moans about the one following it, it’s annoyingly inevitable.
The best thing about this thread is that Tim tried a little dig an hour and a half ago and everyone ignored it. Bravo to all, myself included
Nite all
472 Was this scandal of yours on the front of every paper and led the national bulletins for over two weeks.
Let me put it like this people who I work with never ever talk politics as it is seen as geeky and sad. Two days ago these people discussed politics and largely seemed to agree with Cameron’s stance. Now if this is the only political story to provoke them to commenting this year then I think it is quite important, and if the Tories continue to make self inflicted wounds then I think there could be a problem at the election for them. However dreadful Brown is if this story has made enough of a bad impression on enough people then it could have an effect.
476. “Andrew MacKay’s speech impediment will bring about a hung parliament and so on…”
Has he got a speech impediment? I thought he just had what David Starkey would call a ‘bad accent’ - and for the reasons you only have to look at the poor man’s surname.
Of course, one genuine effect of the MacKay scandal is that it lessens the positive impact for the Tories every time archive footage of the Damien Green raid is shown.
Any link to the 2nd story on the Telegraph front page?
“Taxpayer funds home for minister’s friend”
As the BBC seem to have forgotten to cover it!
472. ChristinaD
I am a Tory but think you are wrong. If the GE is after 6 months then the Expenses Scandel will still be a significant issue because a few Independents & possibly 1/2 smaller parties will manage to keep it live and it is likely there will be a few cases of MPs caught up in the legal process creating adverse publicity.
Having said that I am not unduly concerned for the Tories. A lot will depend on how ruthless the main parties are in de-selecting the worse “perceived” MP offenders and a number of incumbants may lose their seats but there are a lot of Labour incumbants.
“Nadine Dorries: This is a witch hunt – the torture must end”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/nadine-dorries-this-is-a-witch-hunt-ndash-the-torture-must-end-1689753.html
Watching mackay on tv.
He was camerons advisor- now that gives me hope
That was really Daves choice ?
Brown faces Cabinet split on future of Hazel Blears
Caroline Flint, the Minister for Europe, says in The Times that Ms Blears, a fellow Blairite, should stay in her job amid growing fears among her friends that she may be the top-level sacrifice for the expenses fiasco.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6346103.ece
I think Cameron’s trouble with mad Noddy and a couple of out of touch Toffs might end up being insignificant in comparison to the bloodshed that looks like might be about to occur.
Wonder if the BBC will run Flint’s quotes? Clearly saying that Blears has done nothing wrong! What do the public think I wonder? Also only a matter of time before her “repayment” is exposed as nothing of the sort, it is just a credit for future tax.
“Off with their heads! But is Westminster justice fair?
The body count is soaring as party leaders crack down on MPs caught in the expenses mire – but backbenchers are first for the chop”
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/andrew-grice/off-with-their-heads-but-is–westminster-justice-fair-1689752.html
485. Yes, but as Harry Hill might say -
“Andrew MacKay and Damien McBride, they’re both pretty sleazy. But which is the sleaziest? There’s only one way to find out…”
“Brown warned reshuffle may fall victim to turmoil over expenses”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brown-warned-reshuffle-may-fall-victim-to-turmoil-over-expenses-1689749.html
486 - Always worth tuning in when the comrades start being less than comradely towards each other.
EDIT - On that note I shall depart to watch some west wing!
485 - The leading article is much more enlightening (you don’t have to see it through the eyes of Dorries) and about the same subject.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/leading-articles/leading-article-the-pursuit-of-mps-is-becoming-a-witchhunt-1689779.html
Personally, I’m reminded of omelettes and eggs. Parliament knew it should have stopped the corruption earlier, it delighted in getting away with cons like cash for honours and so the majority (and, given their majority at least those in the majority party) must be culpable.
477: Yes, rather agree with Sally - we tend to overestimate the impact of events here - half the country doesn’t watch the news on any given night and is barely aware of the things that grip us unless they’re sustained over a period.
Canvassing reports are confusing at the moment. Everyone I talk to directly says it’s been OKish in their personal experience (in fact positively good in some patches), but they’ve heard it’s awful somewhere else. My rule of thumb has for some time been that (in my patch) a third are pro, a third are anti, and a third are unsure/uninterested/apathetic but vaguely inclined to ‘change’. The first two groups aren’t shifting - I have lots of loyal supporters, and the Tories are still Tories. But the middle group is now uneasy with all of us and unpredictable - might not vote, might vote for anyone. I’m registering a *small* positive swing back from previously wavering people pleased to find that I’ve not been buying daft stuff with my allowances - I know Oracle feels they ought to object to the rent but they mostly don’t.
By the way, don’t understimate the level of quiet annoyance among some Tory backbenchers over the £1250 rent/mortgage cap - it’s not just me who will be £000s out of pocket, and I heard several agreeing after it was announced that it was ‘ridiculous’ and ‘impossible’. I suspect they won’t dare say so loudly because of what happened to Steen, but the view that “Cameron can afford it, what about the poor bloody infantry” is out there, and may account for a certain caution on his part in other matters.
486-Snap! The most important bit is in the end
“The Times has been told by informed sources that Lord Mandelson will not be moved to the Foreign Office, and that David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, has been assured that this is the case.”
485 Yeah, but your snidey approach was what Brown chose for the PPB so I wouldn’t get too excited.
483.Fair enough, I won’t apologise for not getting my knickers in a twist over a scandal which is feeding the general frenzy building about politics in the UK. Its time for a GE…the voters are angry. They want to vote, come on Gordon, show us what you are made of and call that election.
So do we know which minister has been named and shamed by the Telegraph on their front page? I assume that is the big picture of him, but I don’t know who he is.
492.NickP, heard it all before to be honest. Wasn’t that the point Prescott made when Blair wanted to freeze the Cabinet’s pay a few years ago?
492 Brown can also afford it and Labour has a lot more infantry. By the way have you actually expelled anybody from the Labour party or was that just spin.
Comres poll (no voting intentions) shows appetite for indpdendents - step forward, Morus!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/voters-turn-on-main-parties-1689747.html
and Chris Mullin joins Dorries in biting journalists:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/chris-mullin-contrary-to-opinion-were-not-all-at-it-1689780.html
492 - No Nick, don’t misrepresent my words / smear me (as I know that you like to do)!
I said they should object to people like yourself, who make arrogant statements such as
“I could get somewhere cheaper, but it would be inconvenient”!
Have you tried telling the voters that is your outlook on your use of ACA? And that you are always joint 1st every year in ACA cost? I am sure the mob would be happy to here the real truth of how you regard and use your ACA.
I have no problem with renting, in fact from your position it is the safest option for many reasons. However, the amount you charge the taxpayer for what you call a small crash pad is far in excess of what it should be costing.
Haven’t you got some of your own shoes to eat!
Nick Palmer MP, if you are still around can you tell us who the minister (I assume it is a photo of the minister) is on the front page of tomorrow’s Telegraph:
http://news.sky.com/sky-news/content/StaticFile/jpg/2009/May/Week4/15287224.jpg
His story doesn’t seem to be up online yet.
I think things are on the turn a little. The papers have allowed the Telegraph their run; not to do so would have appeared churlish. But the DT has been greedy and injudicious in some cases, which has allowed room for critisism. We are not very far away from the time when they will have to be a little more careful.
More and more I believe the issue will be the politics: the reshuffle quandries; the advisors lost; the seats threatened; the tactics etc.
People will be less and less interested in the details of people they have never heard of though they will be interested in the stuff about those they know.
And unexpolded bombs will go off for everyone in the election leaflets.
484. I think the leading article is excellent but I agree with Dorries’ piece too. In particular when she says:
“The Telegraph conflates serious acts of fraud with the mildly embarrassing and plain administrative errors.”
that’s absolutely right.
This affair has degenerated into witch-hunt and it’s time for all people who claim to be semi-decent human beings to stand up and call a halt to it. I predict that those who don’t will claim in later years that they did.
@503:
The problem is, of course, Nad’s saying this in the vain hope that you might believe that she merely made an ‘administrative error’ when she claimed for a second home despite not having a first.
501 I saw it on Sky news. I was some chap who was a former minister I had never heard of.
425. Disagree, I preferred this week’s to last possibly because I just found all Rolf’s self-referential bit very dull.
NP said “it’s not just me who will be £000s out of pocket”
Move somewhere cheaper then!
That’s what you are told on the dole!
With regard to the rest of the thread:
My views on why some Tories should be deselected are more to do with what they claimed for and the General State of Parliament and the lementable job *some of them* do.
Half the Labour cabinet are crooks and should be axed as well - what annoys me is the fact that some idiots defend the indefensible. The M0tg@ge Labour MPs need despatching asap also, they are still drawing salary.
What i find dispiriting is some of the useless, pointless, selfish and money mad crooks in the House of Commons. Even a LD claimed for Lipstick IIRC not to mention the *Mirror Man* and Huhne and his framed picture of himself!
The reason why i say deselect the Tory ones is given the polls of the last couple of years most Tories with Dodgy expenses would get through the net even if they have an anti-incumbant candidate. The Labour and LD ones are more vulnerable for obvious reasons. Even the Jury team intervention i am sceptical of as I cannot see why two of the major parties would step down in a seat for fear of the other two doing likewise in another!
So when i say deselect some of the Tories as those Rotten apples and ‘past it’ politicians are going to ruin the Next Tory Government if left in place
504 Is that fair?
The fact she lived in one in shifts to avoid her ex - so they could bring up the kids together - is not so very different from the ‘norm’. It is just that when most people go home for the weekend, their partner doesn’t leave by the back door.
492 £1,250 a month… at 5%, that would give you a mortgage of £300K. You must be able to fund a second home on that, even in London.
What they mean is… they have developed lifestyles such that they cannot afford their first homes, without a taxpayer subsidy. Well if that’s the case I suggest they move to somewhere cheaper.
503. But the MPs who have only made administrative errors and mildly embarrassing claims within the rules will ultimately survive the cull. However unpleasant the last couple of weeks have been nobody has yet been forced out for a bad reason, and I doubt they will be - so the McCarthyite claim is well wide of the mark. As for Rowan Williams’ comments - well, he could run Sir Patrick Cormack close in a ‘Mr Pomposity 2009′ contest.
501. That is Bernard Jenkin (Tory MP) - I think he certainly has been a shadow cabinet Minister (He is a nudist as well!) oh , the cheek!
That is a serious pay cut for the Ball’s. Fortunately they live in Castleford where you can pick up a house for about £5.50.
504/508 Sally C, I think you’re right in this case, according to her blog she rents a property in both the Costwolds (the former family home) and Bedford (her constituency).
513 She certainly only rents her second home.
504.Martin, do you have Nads on your dart board?
So we still don’t know who the minister named is, if the photo is a former shadow minister. As the headline is,
“Taxpayer fund home for MINISTER’s friend”
Unless the Telegraph are getting very sloppy (but I don’t think they are as the picture title is about sister-in-law, not “friend”). So maybe it is another scam various MP’s are pulling?
Maybe it is the old story (well we kind of know already). You own a 2nd house, you then rent that one out, and subsequently claim ACA on another new 2nd home. Darling did it, Hoon did it.
513&514.She rents both her homes. So no flipping, or property portfolio built up on the back of our taxes. And yet, she is up there as public enemy No1 with some of the posters on here.
516 I think it begins with ‘G’. Sounded like Gromer? Gomma? Gormer?
There was a seperate story about Jenkins but it just passed me by - like the other guys name; a sign of the times.
He had claimed the full rent but didn’t disclose he had shared if for 5 years - or some such.
518 - Is it surname being with G? Paul Goggins or Helen Goodman perhaps?
519 - I think it’s Goggins. If you look at the front page of the telgraph on Skynew you can just read it in the small print if you squint.
519 It was a man and he looked a bit ginger.
510. Well, consider Alan Beith. Do you think he deserves what has no doubt been a hellish few days for him? I don’t think so and I’m feeling very uncomfortable about the fact that I was one of those baying for blood until a couple of days ago.
I’m not currently a supporter of the Lib Dems (was once, many years ago), and I wouldn’t vote for Alan Beith if I lived in Northumberland. However, he’s had an honourable (that word!) career as an MP and doesn’t deserve such opprobrium at the end of it. The fact that he may not be “culled” does not excuse hounding someone who is - let’s be honest - guilty of absolutely nothing whatsoever.
Must be because there was some connection with Ireland.
521. goggins!
523 - And was it more of the old one two shuffle, I’ll rent you my existing home, and then claim a new home on the taxpayer via ACA?
I also remember Staines claiming a while back that he was investigating MP’s who did the one two shuffle, and rented their places to staffers.
524. Looks nothing like him.
526 - No no, I think you are misreading the front page!
The big picture is a Tory, who rents to his sister in law, but a current Minister is also doing the same but to a “friend” (but they aren’t pictured).
The headline and the picture aren’t one and the same, but I am guessing they are up to the same trick.
The big picture is Bernard Jenkin.
526. I dont know who you are refering too?
If you mean Jenkin you would be correct!
I did not watch sky news so i could not say.
Paul Goggins, the Northern Ireland Minister, told the newspaper that he would repay cash claimed for a property that he shares with a friend.
ps
am staying up for The wire on BBC 1.30am, bit late eh?
501.Isn’t that Bernard Jenkins on the frontpage of the Telegraph?
“For the past three years Mr Goggins has claimed the full mortgage interest, council tax and utility bills on his designated second property in southeast London. He did not tell the Fees Office that he shared it with Chris Bain, a charity director, who lived there rent-free. They admitted that the arrangement was no longer appropriate and that they would repay a large amount.”
528&529.Snap! Another day, another Tory on the the front page of the Telegraph.
It is Goggins. He has lived with someone over 11 years but didn’t declare. He is going to pay a ’substantial sum’ back.
Jenkins has paid 45,000 to his sister in law in rent over a number of years - didn’t say how many.
Then there was the ‘gates’ bloke.
526. I know who Jenkin is i once nearly fell on him when jumping down some stairs in Westminster!
He looked as shocked as I did when he popped up a blind corner!
Oh I have found a gem of a picture / caption
Government minister Paul Goggins MP enjoys a fairtrade breakfast with CAFOD director Chris Bain
http://www.oxfam.org.ukwww.cafod.org.uk/miscellaneous-image-folders/politicians-statespeople-and-celebrities/minister-enjoys-fairtrade-breakfast
The bit the missed was …”every morning on the tax payer”!
535. Isn’t Jenkin the one Richard Curtis always names a character after in every film?
Jenkins is not forced to have done anything wrong. If he rented in London over a number of years £45,000 isn’t uneasonable.
There also seems to be a very large conflict on interest in the Goggins story. According to his wiki page he is married, so my first thought that the charity director was his partner isn’t true (unless wiki is wrong, I am happy to stand corrected).
Thus, he gives free board and lodging to a charity director, former role for Goggins, Charities Minister!
F###ing stinks! No wonder he wasn’t telling anybody! I hope the Telegraph / other media do some homework!
Well there’s another safe Labour (Wythenshawe)and safe Tory (North Essex)potentially up for grabs for aspiring young MP wanabees
539. You are far better at this than the DT.
541 - No, I am sure they know, it is if they want to write the stuff (either for legal reasons or political ones).
It amazing trawling through, he has been invited to No.10 to meet Bush and all sorts. I wonder why? Doesn’t even have to make a phone call to arrange it!
MacKay wins resounding vote of confidence….
http://www.somewhere.org.uk/2005/10/21/clapometer_600×450.jpg
539
Good spot, Pulitzer Prize!
543 First thing to bring a smile to my face about Mackay.
The next will hopefully be his departure.
Next logical step, can you get access to a charities accounts over the web? Maybe from the charities commission website? I want to know what the guy gets paid, looking on the CAFOD website lowly sounding positions are getting £30k.
Edit:- Right, found the accounts, time for some searching.
Ready for it,
Chris Bain, while living for free off the tax payer earns,
£71k (+ £7k pension contribution)
Complete piss take! I hope his employer doesn’t pay for 2nd home expenses as well!
I can’t believe the Telegraph aren’t able to do 10 mins research! Sod the friggin KitKats and bog seats, I want to know more about what is going on here, as said before stinks to high heaven.
Having seen Mackay on TV several times today - he looks like a rabbit in the headlights. Sadly if I was in the car, I don’t think I would apply the brakes.
548 Mackay is toast. Don’t underestimate Cameron. Just saying!
Oracle proves why blogging will finish the dead tree press.
547 Oracle
Could you please post the link? That conflict of interest surely breaks the ministerial code. It sounds far worse than Malik’s transgression.
Off to bed now.
British business can still see an opportunity I see.
http://www.registeredprotest.com/images/duck-island-1.jpg
Rent free or cash in hand?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1186816/MPs-expenses-Taxpayers-cash-funds-home-ministers-friend.html
It also emerged that in February last year Mr Goggins paid Mr Bain £3,829 to fit a new kitchen at his south-east London house.
551 - Which link do you want?
Here is Chris Bain boasting about his meeting with Bush
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3226106.stm
Although I’m generally very sympathetic towards Bush’s progress on HIV. It seems to be the one thing he did for the world which made it unambiguously better.
554 - What the hell, do the Daily Rant read PB? That was posted 1.38am
Only joking, I think they probably had the same warning bells going off as me.
Oh no, they miss out the most important info, he was Charities Minister!
555 Oracle
Any and all which are relevant…
EDIT: Just seen Daily Mail article. Never mind.
Down Under, they’re searching for the amazing “Duck Island”…
http://www.watoday.com.au/articles/2009/05/22/1242498910263.html
The Tories are the laughing-stock of the World….
558 - The Daily Rant has got all the info now, other than the most important bit! How f##king useless are the press! The fact he has a scrounging lodger is one thing, the fact that the scrounging lodger is a leading charity director living rent free with the Charities minister (during the time he was Charities minister) is a completely different kettle of fish.
I just got my info via googling Chris Bain and Paul Goggins, then went to the charities commission website, looked up the CAFOD charity, got their accounts, then read them.
Oh FFS, so we also have a Gordo cleaning Mark II, paying your scrounging lodger tax payer cash in hand, to pay their brother to fit a kitchen!
I think I need breathing apparatus the stink is so bad!
Sod the duck pond (that never got paid out) we have serious conflicts of interest here. Not exactly any conflict with some stupid duck house. I thought ministers have to reveal all possible conflicts of interest, given he didn’t tell anybody his guy lived with him, I am guess that isn’t listed anywhere else. Isn’t that against the rules?
559. So much so they will win the next election. Which is what matters.
What happened to the other thread? I was almost first!
MPs EXPENSES: Labour’s Khalid Mahmood spent £2,575 staying in ‘riot of gold, marble and silk’ hotel with girlfriend
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1186818/MPs-EXPENSES-Labours-Khalid-Mahmood-spent-2-575-staying-riot-gold-marble-silk-hotel-girlfriend.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1186818/MPs-EXPENSES-Labours-Khalid-Mahmood-spent-2-575-staying-riot-gold-marble-silk-hotel-girlfriend.html
563 - Sorry Me, either Wordpress playing up or Morus being very tired. New article will come online at about 0430 (attempts at being first will be preserved!).
Good night all.
Oh jeez, can’t post the Daily Rant link about Khalid Mahmood, his lady friend (not his wife) and charging the taxpayer for staying in a luxury hotel.
Tories calm about MacKay….
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2009/05/andrew-mackay-accused-of-misrepresenting-meeting-with-constituents.html
564-Thanks Morus. And good night.
566 Rod - if there was a (general) election tomorrow who would you vote for?
566. MacKay’s missus is a muppet too. On ITV at 8pm she was interviewed:
“I wish to apologise to my constituents for being dragged into this…”
WTF?
No hint she might herself have done something wrong.
Nice Daily Mail headline!
Sadistic asylum-seeking sex killer convicted of stabbing to death girlfriend and her sister
568. Tough question. Boundary changes outrageously swallow me into Brutal Bootle. However, I expect to move before the election, either temporarily into the “railway station” seat of Sefton Central, or hopefully abroad.
Sefton Central has the most preposterous Tory candidate in a winnable seat in the country, and the Labour MP, although I’ve never voted for her, is probably the most academically-qualified woman ever to sit in the Commons.
So I may not vote at all. If I vote, I always use my vote to vote against the likely national winner. It’s the only rational way to vote…
Morning - just popped onto to see if there was anything more tonight as I’m burning the midnight oil. Anyway as there isn’t here’s something to tide any other midnight ramblers over.
Late night Porkergate Stats - The Scoreboard So far (Angels, Sinners, Total Rvwd,Total MPs, MPS To Do,% Sinners,% Rvwd
Con: 13, 55, 68, 198, 130, 80.88%, 34.34%
Lab: 19, 83, 102, 356, 254, 81.37%, 28.65%
LD : 7, 17, 24, 62, 38, 70.83%, 38.71%
And with that good night……
569. Well, what did she do wrong?
She designated as her second home the place that her husband designated as his first home. That’s not prima facie unreasonable. A husband and wife are, I believe, separate people.
(I’m not saying it was necessarily OK, but I would like to see people back up their accusations with some kind of argument.)
“She designated as her second home the place that her husband designated as his first home.”
You’ve got it totally a.r.s.e about face.
THERE WAS NO FIRST HOME!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5324585/Andrew-Mackay-resigns-over-his-and-hers-second-homes-MPs-expenses.html
571 Ok Rod. Why is Debi Jones preposterous? And why is someone (in this case Claire Curtis-Thomas) with an honorary doctorate “the most academically-qualified woman ever to sit in the Commons.”? (I have an MBA by the way and I’m sure it proves nothing in terms of competence or ability.)
Goggins
‘He is the co-founder of the All Party Parliamentary Friends of CAFOD group’
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Goggins
575. They each owned two homes (the same two homes) in London and Berkshire. He claimed the London one as his second home; she claimed the Berkshire one. So, his first home was in Berkshire and hers was in London.
576. I do not want to get into personal attacks here. You are misinformed. Do your own research on the Tory candidate. CCT may or may not have an honorary doctorate [that is news to me if she does], but she does have 24 letters after he name, earned in hard subjects - engineering, etc. Irrespective of party-politics, she would be a loss to the Commons, while the Tory would make Nadine Dorries look like Gail Trimble…
578. Stop it. You’re making me laugh…
580. That’s still not an argument. I take it the *implied* argument is that as a married couple they are effectively a single person for these purposes? If so, let’s state that clearly. Let’s also be clear as to whether it applies to unmarried couples or any pair of MPs who share a dwelling.
It’s not explicitly stated anywhere (that I’ve seen) that the ACA is effectively reduced for couples in this way, and that they are assumed to have knowledge of each other’s second home designation.
But hey, why split hairs? “Everyone knows” MPs must be guilty, right?
581. I don’t see why a married couple have to be regarded as a ’single person’ for there be an expectation that they would share the same main residence - unless they’re formally separated, of course.
581. Yeah, we know, we know… it was “within the rules…”
We’d got beyond that “defence” about ten days ago, in case you’ve just come back from the Antipodes…
Has anyone topped themselves yet?
584. Ladbrokes offering 2/5 before the end of next week…
583. “We’d got beyond that “defence” about ten days ago”
And about 7 days ago we went beyond reasonable public anger and drifted into self-righteous hysteria. Until a day ago I was promoting it myself.
I think we need to stop and look ourselves here. I was really shaken earlier by Nick Palmer’s description of MPs waiting for the fatal phone call. That’s *our* doing. (The expense claims were not our doing, but the reaction is.)
Interesting that Tim Montgomerie has now joined ‘Better Off Out’. I have long wondered how big the support for that position (which I agree with) is amongst the Tory party activists. I know that the pro EU rump are fairly vocal on CoHome and tend to tell those supporting withdrawal to go join UKIP. I wonder how they will react to Montgomeries declaration of support for withdrawal?
586. If we want a focus for an overdue collective attack of conscience as a nation, how about something rather more appropriate - like children incarcerated in immigration detention centres, for instance? That’s *our* doing as well, and they’re considerably less able to look out for themselves than MPs.
586. Are you Nadine Dorries in drag?
588. Well, indeed. There are many things we are ignoring while we concentrate on the crime of the century.
589. No, but some of what she says I agree with. Her conspiracy theory is from planet 9, but I do feel that we are being manipulated by the Telegraph. Each evening they announce the next day’s pariahs and we all gather round for the stoning. Edifying stuff.
588. Well, indeed. There are many things we are ignoring while we concentrate on the crime of the century.
589. No, but some of what she says I agree with. Her conspiracy theory is from planet 9, but I do feel that we are being manipulated by the Telegraph. Each evening they announce the next day’s pariahs and we all gather round for the stoning. Edifying stuff.
BTW I love your blog!
GREENS up from 6% to 9%!!!! according to latest Guardian poll. In 1989 the polls showed them on 6% but they got 15% in the election. If they get 15% in the polls they will be third again ahead of the lib dems and get over 10 seats. William hill are offering odds of 6/1 the GREENS will get 10 or more seats. put your bet on now at 6/1.
http://southeast.greenparty.org.uk/region/southeast/news/poll-puts-greens-in-third-position-in-the-south-east.html