Should David Laws take a polling history lesson?
March 18th, 2009
Why’s the LD schools spokesman getting it so wrong?
You’ll have to indulge me if you think I’ve banged on about this too much - but I have a real “bee in my bonnet” about the phoney invalid polling comparisons that journos, pundits and politicians are rushing to make when they compare the polling position at the moment with what went on in 1996/97.
And the person who has got under my skin this afternoon is someone I usally have an enormous amount of respect for - David Laws the LD shadow for Ed Balls - who at lunchtime was on Daily Politics doing the post PMQs inquest. True to form, for he’s said this before, he raised the comparative poll issue without mentioning that all but one of polls were different in those days.
It was as though getting one over on the “hated Tories” was more important than making a fair assessment.
This was a pretty dumb thing for a Lib Dem to do - for the vast poll ratings that all but one of the pollsters were recording for Labour in the run-up to the 1997 Labour victory had methodology that boosted Blair’s party mostly at the expense of Paddy Ashdown’s Liberal Democrats
Just look at this table of the polls from the start of the 1997 campaign that I published here on Monday.
One pollster was totally out of line - ICM. Then, as now, it mostly had higher ratings for the Lib Dems and much smaller shares for Labour. And guess what happened on election day? Its approach was proved right.
Can I suggest that Nick Clegg makes Monday’s two posts, here and here, on polling methodologies required reading - certainly for his front benchers.
It also does the Lib Dems no good to be undermining, in however a roundabout way, ICM polls. This is the firm that yesterday had Clegg’s party on 20% compared with just 14% that a MORI poll taken at the same time recorded. It’s all down to the methodology and the former has the track record with LD shares.
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Apologies for double post.
sshhhh nobodys noticed the new thread yet
Just goes to show that most politicians, from whatever party, don’t really understand opinion polls.
Surely for Laws “one over on the Tories” on live is more important than anything else ?
I cringed at that too Mike.
6, you would’ve thought it’d be really useful to understand them, and they’d make the effort.
Or even just read a thread by Mike and realise the basics.
Some Lib Dems can fall into a seeming default position of bashing the Tories. Right now that’s not only a dereliction of duty in holding the government to account, it’s also bad politics. Brown’s unpopular, so kick him.
9. Quite! Given how important they are to MPs’ job prospects and all. for the Lib Dems, their default anti-Torism (understandable given the ferocity of their battles with the Tories over the past 20 years) will leave them exposed if there is a very powerful anti-Labour wind at the next GE.
Being on PB has given every poster a greater insight into polls and their methodolody. However politicians will use data for whatever means,if it gives them an advantage or makes their point, however erroneously.
I agree that it is infuriating for pollwatchers, but it was absolutely the correct political response.
Politicians will always take the opportunity to paint their opponents in the worst possible light. Even those on the LD right wing, like Laws, know the pathological anti-Tory consensus which infects LD activists (though not their voters).
Laws has been strangely low key of late, for someone often feted as a rising star. Perhaps he is growing disillusioned, hence these lazy remarks.
Jay Cost : “Obama is apparently willing to abandon a foundational premise of his candidacy not three months into his tenure.”
…The White House is openly working to delegitimize Republican challenges to the President’s proposals, effectively to argue that the GOP is not a loyal opposition. Recall that the White House endeavored to label Rush Limbaugh the leader of the Republican Party; that this “message war” to paint Republicans as “reflexively political” continues; that one of the first White House officials to mention Limbaugh was the President himself; and that the President has also misrepresented the Republican position on big issues like the stimulus.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2009/03/our_partisan_president_1.html
Can Obama be worst than Bush?
Yes he can!
14 - sounds like Brown really has taught Obama something after all.
13. He was on QT a few weeks back. I thought he looked like a future PM. He has a slightly aloof manner, a bit like Obama, which could be a problem.
The Lib Dem tactics seem to be wrong to me. They should be encouraging the Tories to be complacent by suggesting the polls are v.good for Cammy. The better the polls get for the Tories, certainly in terms of % lead over labour, the more Cammy thinks he can move away from the centre ground. That should help Lib Dems in the Lib vs Con marginals.
Mike, time to take off the gloves and get a bit shouty to get your point across. Something like:
OI - LAWS!!
IN A CLUSTERF*CK OF TW*TS, YOU’RE RISING TO THE TOP OF THE F*CKING HEAP WITH THIS POLLING NONSENSE.
STOP BEING A TW*T. STOP IT RIGHT NOW!!
Maybe Laws would be apptly described as one of the politicians i refer to below, politicians are guilty of spinning their preferred information and will always be thus - What we see now is politicians believing their own proganda! David Laws is as much an example as Gordon Brown.
527. James Burdett. (Last thread).
Certainly I feel let down by the political system. Frankly I dispare at what New Labour have done to the political system with all the trianugulation crap. The politicians deserve an absolute kicking up the arse and a shock to the system. The BNP in that sense is the best vehicle to do so because it is seen as extreme and a failure of mainstream parties to support it.
We are collectively governed by a bunch of useless f*ckwits, with some talented and able folk like Cameron, Ken Clarke, Hague and even a LD (Vince Cable) smattered with useless and frankly dangerously inept MP’s who have gravitated to “Frontbench status” on both sides of the house.
by Martin Day March 18th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
The minutes of the Treasury meeting with RBS have been released…. They are facinating insight into Labour’s view of freedom of information. We should be grateful for their candidness.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2009/03/released-by-the.html
BioCybernetics and the Police
In March 2003, a drunk in southern England threw a brick off a bridge late at night, striking and killing a truck driver traveling along the freeway below. Armed with DNA from the blood on the brick, the British police searched the United Kingdom’s national DNA database, which includes convicted felons and people who have been arrested, but failed to get a direct match. …
Ordinarily, …the British police look for a perfect match to a DNA profile that contains 10 pairs of peaks, or “alleles,” with one number in each pair provided by the father and the other by the mother. …But the police can also program the search to look for partial matches, identifying profiles that are similar but not identical to those in the database. A partial match can suggest that the person in the database didn’t commit the crime, but a close relative whose DNA pattern varies slightly on some of the 20 alleles may have done so. …
…then the authorities limited the search to young men from two counties near the crime scene. … After interviewing the person whose profile represented the closest match—16 out of 20 alleles—the police found he had a brother who lived in one of the nearby counties. They went to the brother, Craig Harman, who agreed to give a DNA sample. It turned out to match the DNA on the brick. Harman …was convicted of manslaughter.
…According to the country’s Forensic Science Service, the Brits have done 70 such searches since 2004, leading to 18 matches and 13 convictions. The success rate is estimated at around 10 percent…
http://www.slate.com/id/2213958/
“DNA identification may raise privacy concerns. Suppose a check of a convict DNA database reveals a near miss, thereby implicating a relative who has no record of conviction and was consequently not included in the bank. What kind of legal rules should apply?”
–US Justice Stephen Breyer
Oh - and I think we can judge how bad Gordon’s performance was today when Gabble has to be re-animated in daylight hours…
Laws confirms my perceptions: the LibDems are like a badly loaded and aimed gun. When it goes off, you don’t know whether it will work properly or go “phut” and the chances of it hitting the correct target are about nil - (if it was loaded at all).
I know I may reiterate this stance just a little but the result may interest former Labour voters. .. but them only I suspect.
19 - Reminds me of an episode from Yes Minister.
19.Some there has a sense of humour, just a shame it is not a laughing matter. What have they got to hide.
O/T. I thought that David Laws performance on the DP summed up what is wrong with the Libdem mindset within Westminster right now. As soon as he opened his mouth to wax lyrical about the polling/Tories, I knew what he would say in spite of all Mike’s sterling work on PB.com, and it reflected badly on him for doing it. Nuff said.
24.Some*one*
18. i like the way you are so pathetically loyal that you have to defend some Con party f*ckwits while having a general rant at the whole system.
19
I’m…at a loss. Why release if you’re just going to, well, not release?
24 - “What have they got to hide” - Almost everything it seems.
21. Gordon Brown is a useless prick - he should be methophorically hung drawn and quartered: Brown regrets people losing their jobs, he does not give a toss. To be honest all they care about in Labour is keeping their own Jobs as MP’s or mininsters as long as possible - good money and good pensions. Brown shouls forfeit his Pension as PM, not as an MP but as PM and C of E. Brown has presided over the biggest peacetime expansion of the state not through succes but through failure - Brown is the political Fred Goodwin.
Labour will have created a three year recession looking at the latest IMF forecast! three years! A whole generation of folks from about the age of twenty to the age of Forty are going to be hobbled because of the arrogance of Brown.
Labour are a bunch of useless, outdated and conceited morons who need to be crushed at the next election.
Clearly Laws has fallen for the usual default position of some many of his party which is to bash to the right and only the right. Is Laws one of those SW LibDems who could lose his seat on a big Tory swing?
As for the last thread, PMQs to me indicated many Labour MPs have just given up on McDoom.
Robert Colvile, Three Line Whip - Alastair Campbell shakes up the New Statesman
“Alastair Campbell is guest-editing the New Statesman this week - and looks to have pulled out all the stops.
The cover below is an astonishing snapshot of Britain, circa 2002 - Sir Alex Ferguson paying court to a self-confident Campbell, with old muckers Tony Blair (doing God) and Kevin Spacey (doing art) joining in.
That Sarah Brown should contribute is perhaps unsurprising, given the recent rapprochement between Blairites and Brownites - but the presence of Mail supremo Paul Dacre, whose views on the contribution of Campbell to public life are well-known, and well-aired, has Fleet Street agog.
Is it just a clever spoof? I am assured by the New Statesman that the contents are as stated. In which case, roll on publication…”
26. I owe the Tories nothing - They generally have better MP’s than Labour, you forgot to mention Vince Cable.
Labour are a complete bunch of useless non-entities in cabinet. How can Jacqui smith stay as Home Sec? Do they have no honour or dignaty?
30. In theory yes, but Yeovil won’t be an easy seat for the Tories to gain. The town itself is a pretty run-down place, with major social problems.
On Jon Stewart :
Jon Stewart’s recent attack on CNBC’s Jim Cramer was so brilliantly performed, so smoothly produced and cruelly compelling, almost nobody noticed that it didn’t make sense.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-03-18/how-jon-stewart-went-bad/
The (unedited, unabbreviated) Stewart non-sensical attack can be seen here :
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/03/stewart-destroys-cnbc-cramer-calls.html
16. They should be encouraging the Tories to be complacent
I don’t think the Tories pay a huge amount of attention to what Lib Dems say, frankly. Nor does anyone else.
32. how could the Con party actually have been more of a failure over the last 10 years? if the govt are as bad as you say, the job of opposition should have been easy, even without “better MP’s”.
your pathetic loyalty is touching but misplaced.
Just got 2 YouGov surveys. The first one had a voting intention question for the Euros so there may be a poll on that coming up. The second was the usual brand survey but at the end you were asked 2 questions about if you’d heard Labour or the Tories saying anything interesting in the last 2 weeks and what you thought of it.
Now that’s funny :
George W. Bush on his plans for his memoir:
I’m going to put people in my place, so when the history of this administration is written at least there’s an authoritarian voice saying exactly what happened.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/03/quote-for-th-25.html
Two other points to remember when comparing pre-97 polls with those of today.
- Labour didn’t need to be as far ahead as they were. They won a majority of 170+, which is all very nice but it was over a hundred more than would have given them a comfortable majority anyway, as it would be for the Tories in 2009/10. The Conservatives don’t need to replicate the scale of Labour’s success; a win is a win.
- On the other hand, as we all know, they do need to be ahead to be level ie they’ll need a lead of 6-10% in votes to come out level in seats.
Irrespective of whether or not you believe in swingback - or the extent to which you do if so, those two points need to be factored in to the thinking.
Laws is a twit even looking at the old polls. Coffee House has a piece showing Labour were the same place in the polls at this stage prior to 1997.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3452161/the-tories-are-in-the-same-poll-position-as-new-labour-was-nine-months-before-the-1997-landslide.thtml
Graham Linehan writing rather passionately on the disgust many of us felt at the Express’s recent “Dunblane Shame” story:
event:http://bit.ly/3hukrY
Sorry, that link again
– http://bit.ly/3hukrY
36. The Tories ’succesfully’ opposed the FSA that the Labour party instigated through legislation back in their first term (1997 - 2001) when the LD’s were still doing a political ‘toenails’ to the Labour party. Indeed they shared a Joint cabinet committee.
The Labour party just went on about the Tories ‘being extreme’ - it is the Labour/LD stitch up in 1997/2001 that have created some of the problems we now see. If you only have approxiametly 165 as the official opposition and a compliant third party to a government with a huge majority it is difficult to do much at all other than vote against Labour.
ED, like with economics and Finance you are too young and inexpreienced to know what you are talking about with politics and various opposition positions. Don’t view what i write through a prism of me being a “Tory” - which is factually incorrect - I vote Tory but am not a member. Maybe there was a clue about the names i did not include rather than the ones I did!
But obviously you failed to grasp that point! 
Where are the obligatory links to Heffer today? Has he not rubbished David Cameron this time?
I think it is quite understandable for LD MPs to talk down the Conservatives, althoughmy preference would eb that they didn’t show complete ignorance of polling methodology.
It is a little unfair to say that Laws has been out of the limelight. The LD Spring Conference was all about education and Laws was all over it.
In reality other issues are dominant right now.
It is a little unfair to say that Laws has been out of the limelight. The LD Spring Conference was all about education and Laws was all over it.
Was it??? Have they had a spring conference………..
Lloyd Evans at the Coffee House Blog gives his take on today’s PMQ’s - Cameron scores a direct hit with his “phoney” jibe
He adds this comment at the end of his take on PMQ’s.
“In the Beeb’s post-match analysis, Nick Robinson was sure Cameron had ‘blown it’ with his ‘phoney’ moment and he predicted sleepless nights for the Tory leader when he recalled that in the week of the steepest jobless rise in history he’d been forced into a retraction at PMQs. I scanned it quite differently. Parliamentary protocol seems so stuffy and arcane that anyone who defies it becomes an instant folk hero. And his language may be inadmissible in the house but in the country it’s just banter. I’d put ‘complete phoney’ up there with Blair’s famous Major-mashing, ‘weak, weak, weak.’ It did exactly what the opposition leader wants – it established an instant connection between the politician’s head and the voter’s heart. The Speaker’s intervention will only propel it up the news agenda. A pretty good day for Dave although Brown seemed full of misplaced gusto as well. Mind you he is making policy in an empty bunker, where the smallest murmur of approval must resound like the roar of thousands.”
39.
David. “On the other hand, as we all know, they do need to be ahead to be level ie they’ll need a lead of 6-10% in votes to come out level in seats.”
No, we don’t all know, as you put it. In fact I disagree. You cannot KNOW this until AFTER the votes have been cast and counted.
You may INFER it from previous elections but this is dangerous ground.
I have posted this before but the electorate of 2010 will be different in number, distribution and composition from 2005. Turnout may well be higher next time. And even if the shares of votes by major party were still the same it is not a necessary conclusion that the seats held will be the same.
It is perfectly possible that in accruing their national percentage shares, the parties may experience highly favourable or unfavourable distribution of votes that could be concealed by national totals but result in wildly different seat performance.
Any supposed bias in the system can and will be revealed only AFTER the votes are counted and not before.
If the Conservatives lead by 6-10%, it is perverse to say they will not lead by seats. How many? Too many variables including LibDem strength/weakness, distribution etc to impact on the results.
Eagerness to ‘kick tha b*st*rds out’ coupled with feeble resignation by ‘the ba*st*rds’ in all but their safest of seats may well be a much more powerful factor than suppositions about needing to be 6-10% ahead, which by the way is an extraordinary wide range.
Elections have been won and lost by margins of less than 4%, well within the range you quote.
43. that doesn’t even make sense.
one of the main reasons the system is as broken as it is, is that for almost all of the last 30 years, there has been complete disarray in at least one of the two main parties (usually the opposition). that really isn’t good for the country.
45. Ah the Spring conference which received zero media coverage…
Michael Howard is doing a great speech on Uk Parliament channel on the economy. Worthwhile watching.
48. there is truth in what you say, but remember that ‘bias’ here is not literally bias towards any particular party. it really refers to the relative geographical concentration of Con party support.
that is why it is unlikely that a slim vote share majority will be sufficient for the Cons to form a govt - rather than unpredictable fluctuations on a seat by seat basis.
49. Nonsense ED - you are looking at things the way the media have told you rather than the way things truely are.
Surely no politico is going to pay attention to methodology: it really doesn’t help make a point if one says “Labour were 30% ahead at this stage of Major’s Government - - - however, now it would be 15%”.
And I imagine David Laws isn’t obsessed with this issue and has other things on his mind, hopefully our kids education is one of those things but it may not be the case!
A former Labour MP was drunk, abusive and “out of control” in a hotel bar, a court has been told. Skip related content
Related photos / videos Former Labour politician Helen Clark is accused of drunken and abusive behaviour Helen Clark - MP for Peterborough, Cambridgeshire, between 1997 and 2005 - then told police investigating a complaint against her that they were “pigs”, Peterborough Magistrates’ Court heard.
Clark, 54, of Peterborough, denies using threatening words and behaviour and being drunk and disorderly in a bar at the Great Northern Hotel in Peterborough in June 2008.
The politician had been drinking wine on a Sunday afternoon and went “ballistic” when a Portuguese barmaid refused to serve her more alcohol, a district judge was told.
Prosecutor Caroline Allison said Clark responded with a string of abuse and profanity.
The court heard that barmaid Susana Arsalani had filmed part of the incident on a mobile phone and the footage appeared on the internet site YouTube, the court heard. Mrs Arsalani told the court that Clark had been “aggressive”.
“What provoked the reaction was that I denied serving Mrs Helen. Obviously that made her angry,” said Mrs Arsalani. “Obviously I told her that she was drunk. She didn’t like that. I tried to be the most polite possible. I keep apologising for doing my job.”
Mrs Arsalani added: “She never called me ‘Portuguese bitch’. She called me ‘bitch’ and said I couldn’t speak English. She never used my nationality.”
Mrs Arsalani denied suggestions that she had lied and exaggerated and told the court: “I am nobody. I’m a barmaid with a family. I just want justice. I just want the person who treated me that way to say ‘I am sorry. I was wrong’. That’s the only thing I expect from Mrs Helen.”
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20090318/tuk-former-mp-out-of-control-in-bar-6323e80.html
49. You could argue that disarray among the opposition has been an almost permanent feature of the UK political scene in the last several centuries.
Labour in the 1950s, Labour in the 1930s, Tories just before WWI, Liberals post the Home Rule split, Tories from the 1830s-1860s, Whigs during the Napoleonic Wars, Tories again in much of the Hanoverian period…
…there’s nothing very new here.
As an observer of politics, I have given up on Clegg making the smart political move and pointing all his limited guns and resources at Labour. He is therefore heading for a big fall.
The LD tactics are exactly what Conservatives want them to do. Go and align themselves with the damaged Labour Govt and be a Labour party soundalike. Mike of course is right but he does the Conservatives no favours through pointing out Laws stupidity. If the LDs think the polls are ok for them and not good enough for the Conservatives than they are in for a shock. So be it.
You just have to read the LD blogs on the Scottish LDs Conference with their gushing praise for the state of the LDs in Scotland to realise just how out of touch they have become.
It just reinforces the chances of a 2 party squeeze and the LDs are the bit that is going to be squeezed.
52. But 6-10% is far from a “slim vote share majority” and the geographic concentration of party support (for all parties) can both work for or against.
In 2001, the LibDems improved their seat performance on a lower national share of the vote over 1997. Concentration favoured them in 2005 but wider distribution against in 1997.
However, you say ‘unlikely’ which is far less dogmatic than ‘we all know’.
56. I don’t think the Tories were split in this spell of opposition. Not ideologically and even on europe the usual ‘pro-european’ suspects kept their heads down on the whole in election campaigns. Sure there was the ‘Euro’ platform with Hezza and Clarke there but they were not on the frontbench. It was not ever anywhere near the early 1980’s where Labour were split on just about every issue.
Ed just believes the Labour propoganda and is too young really to remember the last tory government or even Labour’s first term!
59. I think there were quite a lot of splits on tactics and direction in the 1997-2001 parliament in particular, though I agree the ideological issues had simmered right down by then. There was also a lot of petty factionalism and personal conflict and a general lack of enthusiasm for much of the period - ‘disarray’ can mean many things.
56. maybe so, but the fact is we have had two record-breaking govts in a row when arguably a bit more alternation (or, at least, chance of alternation) might have been better.
55 - Peterborough is certainly unfortunate with its MPs.
60. True but it was not like Labour where a significant portion split off and formed the SDP and then in the actual campaign various elements of the Labour hierachy came out against the unilateralist policy like Callaghen etc.
There are always debates about tatics - their was one school of thought that wanted to target enough seats to form a majority Govt and another just wanted to target a much smaller number.
62 Go on tim, wheel out the smear that you’re building up for us.
still no Blog from Robinson. Is he re-evaluating his position, or will he stick to it?
532 - GeoffH on previous thread.
That was not a rebuttal of the charge that the Tories number one tax priority in a recession is the wealthiest estates, it was a justification for it.
We can all agree that its true.
Whether it is correct or not is a different matter.
55
I feel for her. There’s a type of person, who from the time they join in the politics at Uni, know nothing else for the rest of their lives. It can be hard for some to adjust once they realise politics is over for them, but have no idea how to fill the void.
58. yes but unless something drastic happens we know roughly how it will work out (unexpectedly big tactical unwind could be one such drastic event). the LDs aim to concentrate because it gives them good seat value out of a limited vote share. this would be a bad policy if they thought they could get 40% of the vote.
of the two main parties, the Cons are far more concentrated: at the moment they are an english party whose primary support base is in affluent areas. the resulting piling up of votes in safe seats and thin support in some other areas has made their task tough this time round (as any period of weakness makes the task harder).
Peston just reporting that FSA are unlikely to go for a ban on 100% mortgages, instead he “thinks” it is more likely they will give themselves the powers to introduce “temporary” bans if they think the housing market is overheating.
Can you see the problem with that! Whatever happened to Gordo’s claims? All good stuff.
My take is, as Peston was clear to point out, lots of people can’t afford the 10% deposit, “only those who are rich or have rich parents willing to lend them the money”!. So I reckon Gordo has been given the message that lots of core voters would go mental if they banned 100% mortgages.
Sounds like the worst possible fudge to me, just ban the 100% and get back to sensible lending of 85-90%, end of story.
67 Is that what the future holds for Gordon? A ban from the bar at Cowdenbeath FC?
63. Yes it wasn’t as bad as Labour in the 1980s, I agree. That would have taken some achieving, of course…
59. they were chaotic and arguably unelectable for two and a bit terms. don’t let the recent resurgence colour your judgement.
likewise Lab were only serious contenders for some of the years 1990-97, and virtually unelectable 1979-89.
55 The Blair babe getting ratted in the “old Soaks” bar is a wonderful iconic image of all the binge drinkers that the Govt keep telling us (the plebs) that we are becoming.
Why does new Labour ignore the mote in its own eye?
70 Cape Cod.
66. tim. You really do have all the energy, tenacity and debating skill of a 4 year old.
Sky also think your tax line is crap
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:057926c2-4798-4d8c-837b-f84014ae94e5
but the answer to your persistent question is corporation tax.
O/T Has Dacre reached for his cheque book to persuade Ben Brogan to stay - it must be about 10 weeks since it was announced that he was leaving the Mail for the Telegraph?
69. asking someone to save 10% before entrusting them with a mortgage sounds pretty reasonable to me.
whether regulators should really be meddling there remains to be seen, though.
69. The political problem of that is if the number times of yearly earnings is capped at x 3.5 and 85-90% LTV. House prices are going to be capped for years to come with many stuck in negative equity!
Personally I do not expect house prices to recover for about 10 years to 2007 levels.
The benifical side of this would be a restruturing in the savings ratio as people began to save rather than get house purchases on the never - never. Of course my generation who are still to get on the house ladder (In my case get back on the job ladder)with student loans and the like are the victims of Labour’s incomptence and the clean up of this mess is not going to be nice,quick or pretty.
70. Frank is going to put him back in the attic.
Mike,in the second line of your thread article you have used the word “phoney”.
Are you prepared to withdraw?
Having already supplied the Opposition with “headless chicken” and”bunker” lets have some more please
73. That’s why i posted it!
- I felt a bit bad about it but it is not personal and public knowledge anyway!
75 - Again thats not a rebuttal but support.
I appreciate some people suport prioritising the wealthiest estates for tax cuts.
What is the Corporation Tax pledge?
I thought is was revenue neutral and was funded by abolition of certain allowances and reliefs.
But go ahead and correct me.
55. That reminds me, what’s Andrea up to these days?
83
Who’s Andrea.
80
I wonder if our host used the word phoney on purpose.
Joey Jones reckons the “phoney” remark was deliberate and straight out of the courtroom drama play book.
Interestingly Jones didn’t say who won, normally I think he does a decent job of covering the exchanges. In fact, from the video pieces chosen you would be hard pushed to work out which man man won.
However, they did paint personality pictures. The played up Gordo patronising comment, about unprecedented, global, …. and he looked a nasty piece of work from that. In comparison, they didn’t play the “phoney” remark, instead they went with the “no hint of an apology”.
72. Ed
I would not say Labour started being electable until about 1994/1995! Probably 1995/1996.
Being electable is different to be an ‘opposition’.
Fraser Nelson on Coffee House :
“The rest of PMQs was fairly boring. Clegg rather useless. He always looks as if he’s just had his hair cut, and Chris Huhne always looks as if he’s thinking “God, another week in the campaign and I’d have had him”. How the LibDems must be anxious. Current polls suggest two thirds of them will lose their seats at the next election.”
Welsh top-up fees grant scrapped
A grant which off-sets the cost of student top-up fees in Wales will be phased out from September 2010.
Education Minister Jane Hutt said more help would be offered to students from lower income backgrounds.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/wales_politics/7951034.stm
This is going to go down like a lead balloon.
87: Shouldnt that, you know give them a hint that the tory bashing isn’t getting them anywhere?
83 I saw a reference on PB recently to both Andrea and Mark Senior posting a good deal on Vote 2007.
87 - Poor Fraser has lost a bit of cred since his Political vetting by RBS story proved to be a squib.
Did he make up the whole thing?
His story had certainly changed by the evening.
82 tim, the clues to your lifestyle would lead us to believe that you’ve got a few quid tucked away. Out of interest, have you made any special arrangements to ensure that your children receive the maximum possible upon your own death, or will the State receive it’s full dues?
78. that isn’t quite true - remember not every mortgage is a first time buyer!
87. The LD’s are doomed - DOOMED at the next election!
http://nickcleggneilkinnock.blogspot.com/2009/02/liberal-democrat-prospects.html
92 - Are you claiming I will leave more than £700k and therefore should be priority number one for an incoming Tory Govt?
86. for most of 1991-2 they were electable, the narrow Major victory was not inevitable.
95 No. I’m asking you whether you’ve made any preparations to ensure the ‘tax efficient’ transfer of your estate to your heirs upon your death. Does that make my question easier to understand?
Glad you have come out and contradicted him.
But he was blatantly put up to it by the wotsername woman who has gone down steeply in my estimation.
The latest poll result (well one particular slanted part of it - designed to give an opportunity for a positive spin) and an invention of ‘Tory jitters’ was clearly all part of the BBC narrative and it had to be got in. The ‘phoney’ jibe was a tortuous excuse but they grabbed it.
Robinson was pathetic. Just because Brown gave a good impersonation of Uriah Heap last week he implies that Cameron cannot be brutal back in the face of Browns ever growing list of smoke and mirrors tricks.
96 - nonsense. They had Kinnock.
88. Plaid going back on an election manifesto commitment. Will stick that on a few leaflets I suspect.
Not to mention this got voted down recently at a party council.
“Mr Dixon attributed the differences of opinion within the party to the realities of coalition government.
He said that although this was the first time Plaid ministers found themselves at odds with party policy, it would not be the last.
Writing on his blog ahead of Saturday’s meeting, Plaid MP Adam Price said: “The Labour party is entitled to their policy but they have no right to impose it unilaterally on us as this was not envisaged in One Wales.
“Plaid Cymru’s national council… needs no reminding that it voted through One Wales to create the One Wales government. But this policy was never part of the deal.” ”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/7904549.stm
Could be a few fireworks, and be fun to watch.
Mike - why is my latest comment stuck in moderation, there are no naughty words in there!
Fraser is exagerating the likely scale of the LD loss at the next GE. More likely to be 1/3. However which party is going to suffer the biggest % loss of seats at the next GE?
If the LDs drop to 40 MPs and Labour to 222 that would put them on a similar scale of loss of 37%.
By comparison the Conservatives lost 51% (compared to GE92) at the 97 GE.
95 - Why should I?
If I’m really wealthy the Cameron Government will ensure that my estates are first in line when it comes to a tax cut.No need to waste money on an accountant if Cammo is riding into town.
93. ED, Don’t start talking about stuff you don’t know again like the student loans not counting for mortgages before
.
How was some of the economic failure we now face ourselves brought on us. Part of it was through people releasing equity in their properties and spending the money - people thought house prices would just rise and some folk even started buying buy-to-let. The problem is some folks may have had say 40% equity in their houses - more people than you would think. Certainly not first time buyers. This equity may now be reduced to say 20%. If house prices fall further and then do not recover as i expect will happen for a long period of time people are going to have problems. Likewise people who are now in negative equity problems will arise.
Besides whether it is first time buyers or not it is all interlinked. You simply do not understand what you are talking about - if you limit the available buyers it will limit price rises. It’s called supply and demand. Whether that is a good thing economically is seperate to the political dynamics.
Here is another reason why house prices will continue to fall in the next year or so other than the massive rise in unemployment:
http://www.ftadviser.com/FTAdviser/Mortgages/Products/BuyToLet/News/article/20090318/75759e16-1304-11de-a6cb-00144f2af8e8/Abandoned-buytolet-properties-on-the-rise.jsp
96. Kinnock is surely the polar opposite of ‘electable’.
105 - Not quite polar opposite. Michael Foot occupied that position.
106 - Yes quite.
105 & 6 - I think Benn was probably the real culprit.
I see that the unelectable Hague is now favourite to follow Cameron.
Dusting down the baseball caps lads?
108 BTW tim, talking of bets, how is your bet on Michael Gove becoming Shadow Chancellor going? Have you done a Paddy Power yet?
103 tim, as you find it so difficult to give an honest answer to a pretty straightforward question, I will draw my own conclusions as to how you’ve chosen to protect the gift to your heirs in the event of your death, and the duties that may (or more likely not) be accrued by the State.
99,105. ok then, how confident do you think Major was of a majority the day before the 1992 election? surely not 100%? compare and contrast with e.g. 1983 or 2001 - that is unelectable.
I reckon Tim is one of the wealthiest posters on this site.
He’s absolutely loaded.
109 - I’ll be paying at Easter.
Shame for you that the Tories didn’t have the sense.
104. you don’t seem to grasp the issues very well
113 - Wonder if he takes the Guardian approach to paying taxes? Shouts a lot from the sidelines, but on closer inspection does everything possible to avoid paying their fair share!
112 - He is loaded with something, don’t think it is money though.
106. I stand corrected…
111. “Cold Stone sure” *John Major 1992
112 - That is true.
The Charitable status of Public Schools made my first fortune, and the arable subsidies my second.
114. ED - Stop Trolling: You know F*ck all about Finance/ Mortgages and the like.
You claimed that “Student Loans did not count” when working out an individuals liabilities when applying for Mortgages. Maybe you are from the Peter Mandelson school of Mortgage brokers but I am not!
I think ED you were one of the tools in late 2007 saying it was a good time for a first time buyer to get in the market as well. You also claimed I was wrong when in 2007 I said recession would hit in 2008.
103. That’s a ‘Yes’ then but you’re too much of a weasel to admit it.
66, 82 and all the other nonsense. Rebuttals are rebuttals not confirmation, not matter how many times you attempt to twist them round.
119 So, a retired gentlemen farmer living in the NW by chance?
The Immigration Appeals building is on fire.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7951248.stm
Sorry, Immigration and Appeals Commission
124 - Someone keen to stay?
122 - Occasionally rip down a few hegerows just for old times sake.But generally sit there counting the cash, just thankful that my children will be Camerons priority.
Nick Robinson claimed during the post PMQ discussion that Cameron hung his head after his final question. Can’t see that on the BBC2 recording…or did Nick Robinson make the whole thing up?
There are serious (read: expensive) problems with the security arrangements at the G20; police are expecting more violent demonstrations than ever before.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5927699.ece
Tim is cash and time rich - and easily bored. He has an extensive interest in current affairs; and more than anything else, he comes here for the intellectual challenge of being a contrarian.
I’m not sure even he knows what his politics are any more. But he does enjoy dropping bait on the water, waiting for a bite - and the challenge of reeling in his catch.
125 - looking fo a man with a motive?
Let the conspiracy theory of Al Fayeds involvement with the fire commence.
I demand an expensive enquiry.
120.
“in 2007 I said recession would hit in 2008.”
Martin Day in broken-clock correct situation?
57.”You just have to read the LD blogs on the Scottish LDs Conference with their gushing praise for the state of the LDs in Scotland to realise just how out of touch they have become.”
TC, I missed that, I have been too busy following the shannigans regarding the Aberdeenshire exLibdem Four.
And Guido has the latest on another rebellion within the Libdem yoof movement.
LibDem Youth Teeny Totty Tantrums
Dons tin hat and awaits a history lesson…
126 Would you rather they were just a cash cow for Gordon Brown? Why not give it all away now tim - unburden yourself of the guilt. Set yourself free. Maybe the Wedgwood Benns and Millibands could offer some advice? Oh. I forgot. They managed to keep it all.
134 - So you support the prioritisation of the wealthy estates.
At least you’re honest.
Poor Maggie Thatcher Fan thought it should be rebutted.
A Labour MP Colin Burgeon has just said he agreed with the last tory speaker that Gordon Brown should resign!
He then said he will watch what he will say as he wants a job in the future! What could have meant!
42 Tim Ireland’s rebuttal is quite amusing http://tinyurl.com/d72kyv
Not sure how the original story saw print “survivors of Dunblane like drinking, sex and writing rude words on Facebook, like all other teenagers”. Hardly a story is it? Maybe I just don’t grok Express readers.
135 ‘So you support the prioritisation of the wealthy estates’
Where did I suggest that it in my post? You still haven’t answered my question - why should I bother replying to yours?
132. No my cock is fine, the recession started in 2008 but I predicted it was coming in 2007. The recession gets worse of course as we go into 2009!
Tim ever so DIM, I rebutted the fact that it was a priority. You dissemble very badly.
@137:
There’s a cultural tumour growing on the United Kingdom, and the Express and the Mail feed on it.
It’s hardly a benign tumour, either. It’s about time we sliced it out. There are lines that should not be crossed in civilized society. It’s alarming how often the Mail and the Express prance gaily across that line, pissing backwards on everyone else.
139. cock = Clock: Butter fingers!
136 - What?
Get those questions in there folks !!
Your chance to interview top politician
« Published Date: 17 March 2009
Lancashire Evening Post readers have an exclusive opportunity to put a question to David Cameron, leader of the Conservative Party.
The LEP has secured an open forum with Mr Cameron and this is your chance to ask the leader of the Opposition, face-to-face, a question about his party’s plans for Britain’s future.
Email your questions to martin.hamer@lep.co.uk with your name, age, occupation and daytime telephone numbers.
Alternatively you can post your questions to David Cameron Forum, Newsdesk, Lancashire Evening Post, Oliver’s Place, Fulwood, Preston, PR2 9ZA, along with the above personal details
139 One of the more bizarre typos on here!!!!
(Although I’m sure we are all delighted to hear that all is well!)
Intriguing piece from Dizzy, I wonder whether we will hear more of this?
http://dizzythinks.net/2009/03/gordon-browns-medical-records-hacked.html
140 - Its the top tax priority.
And most recently repeated pledge since they came off Labours tax and spend plans.
In fact, has Cameron made any other tax pledges?
128 It will be instructive to see whether the police use it as an excuse to obstruct people going about their legal business.
Funny how they do not arrest anti-war protesters for actions likely to cause a breach of the peace (despite the fact a breach of the peace clearly happened), but are completely over the top when dealing with anti power station campers, confiscating soap and knitting needles.
139. you are more like a broken digital clock. not even the benefit of being right twice a day.
136 Run that one by us again! He said what???
144 - I’ve got two.
Do you prefer Pepsi or Coke.
And.
How much will you’re dad save in accountancy fees if you get elected.
142 Is that a coded instruction for some activity or other?
143. He was contributing to the opposition day debate and and spoke after Geral Howarth who blamed the PM for the economic failure and said Gordon Brown should resign!
I think Col may have just been unfortunate in his wording and correction given his focus on libarism later on but I wondered if it was a presage to a defection!
147 How do you know it’s a priority? It’s just the only one that has been mentioned so far.
152 You know when you’ve been Last Tango-ed….
151 ‘How much will you’re dad save in accountancy fees if you get elected.’
tim, you could probably give us an idea. How much did your wealth management and estate/succession planning cost?
147. Says you tim. According to the Conservative Party website, their top tax pledge is a freeze on Council Tax, followed by abolishing income tax on savings, raising tax allowance for pensions and cutting corporation tax to 25%. The IHT pledge is at the bottom.
http://www.conservatives.com/Policy/Where_we_stand/Economy.aspx
146, it’s ok, Nick Palmer assures me that having your medical details revealed to the world isn’t a problem.
146. tim can explain to us why having those records on a central computer system is SUCH a good idea.
154. doing something first either means it is top prioritisation, or you have no ability to prioritise. which would you like to think is the case here?
156. in case this wasn’t obvious, attacking people for their own alleged personal success is usually a good sign that the argument has been lost. maybe you should try another tack.
158. I’d forgotten that. Excellent point - perhaps Nick P might comment - LOL!
Sky showing an interview with McNulty. McNulty accuses Dermot? of not being professional, not being fair to him and shouting over him.
Pressure?
142.
“cock = Clock: Butter fingers!”
The evidence is you’ve been applying them vigorously to your clock!
149. You are like a broken record ed! Mickey Mouse Vs. Bob the builder.
161 But I’m not attacking tim for being successful - for that he should be congratulated and others encouraged. I’m simply pointing out his hypocrisy and double standards. Socialism from the Toynbee school of political learning.
163. Pressure? Inability to deal with the pressure more like. McNumpty’s an amateur and now he’s being found out…..
160 But they haven’t done anything, they’re the Opposition. They have simply announced one tax plan out of many that will no doubt be in the election manifesto (several others of which are on the party website as Andrew points out at 157 above)
167. Is he as bad as Myners?
Lord Myners: as much use as a chocolate tea-pot
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/iain_martin/blog/2009/03/18/lord_myners_as_much_use_as_a_chocolate_teapot
164.
When you hang around all day with little to do you some times succomb to the odd cock up! Its these hard times! Will they ever end! I seem to be coming up against one brick wall after another!
Maybe my luck will change soon and I will get a stimulating job!
167
He did seem to be cracking and it looks like it was a re-run, so Sky must have enjoyed it.
[58] “In 2001, the LibDems improved their seat performance on a lower national share of the vote over 1997.”
Yet more evidence, despite the bluster, that this poster is not qualified to comment on these matters.
The GB LibDem vote rose 1.6% in 2001….
166. i’ve heard that line a lot of times, and never from anyone who was winning the argument at the time, funnily enough.
what is wrong with wanting to improve a system, while still operating (successfully) within the existing system? nothing. if anything riches strengthen a purely socialist argument, because the ends are obviously not aligned with self-interest. in the same way the Con party message is often best delivered via the “aspirational” rather than the privileged, in my opinion anyway.
163 - No that is just how McNumpty is, a big stupid bully. He does it every time he appears on tv.
What really annoys me that in some quarters, Cameron calling Brown a “phoney” will be reported as near “bullying”, “aggressive”, etc behaviour, but the likes of McNumpty shouting everybody down, making all sort of accusations every time he is on the media, is never brought up. Double standards?
170 If you keep coming up against one brick wall after another, you certainly don’t need more stimulating. Too much butter maybe? And you probably need to do some decorating…
Wonder why Robinsons not blogged on PMQ’s yet? Hmmmmm….
168. they are free to focus on whatever they like without distractions from ‘events’, so surely their choice of what to focus on first is the more telling?
164. Hacking Brown’s medical records?
Did they tamper with his Lithium prescription?
168 - I am wealthy beyond mere mortals dreams, and under a Cameron Govt, in a recession, I will be a top priority for tax cuts.
Can you see anything wrong with that?>
175. My walls are cream coloured!
A question on Medical Records.
Why do people want them to remain on paper, at a place where you are unlikely to receive treatment?
176 I am beggining to think Robinson’s next post will be about anything but PMQ’s. bearing in mind he made a **** of himself, I doubt he will want to advertise it further. We will see on the 10pm news no doubt .
182 beginning
177 I can’t really rememeber back to when the IHT cut was announced, but I presume there was a good reason for doing it at the time. I also recall it being quite popular and indirectly leading to the cancellation of the Autumn ‘07 election.
And if you think the Tories are “they are free to focus on whatever they like without distractions from ‘events’” you are deluded.
172. Yet more evidence that this poster is full of piss and wind and hides behind a couple of typos.
Look 1997 and 1992. Oh dear, up 26 seats on a 1% lower share of the national vote.
180 They are now!
Home from work , not having seen PMQ’s who won , all the ar*e licking Cameroons on here say he wiped the floor with Brown , Conservativehome think he won narrowly , Robinson says he was poor , difficult one to assess then .
179 ‘ I am wealthy beyond mere mortals dreams, and under a Cameron Govt, in a recession, I will be a top priority for tax cuts.’
tim, in all seriousness, why do you bother with pb.com? If I was in the fortunate position you were in, I’d be out giving something back to the World, rather than sating my boredom posting here. I could find a hundred and one worthwhile causes and charities who would jump at the chance to work with a wealthy, successful and patently well meaning person such as yourself, if what you suggest about yourself is true.
172 Rod
The GB LibDem vote rose 1.6% in 2001….
Once again I think you are somewhat less than precise.
The Libdems % vote share increased by 1.5% (due to the massive decline in turnout and the disproportionate drop in the Labour vote). However the Libdem vote fell by around 8.2%.
1997 - 5,242,947
2001 - 4,814,321
133. I follow that up and all I find as a source is a blog that exists for little else than attack Liberal Youth. Yawn.
182. After getting his fingers burnt over the Ivan Cameron blog post (I noted the BBC dropped all reference to Cameron’s background in later stories) and now this he must be starting to feel like an endangered species now…..
185 The bias against the Conservatives in the electoral system has been there at this level since 1992 if not before then . Major had a majority of just 21 with a poll lead over Labour of around 7.5% , a lead of 6% would have meant no overall majority .
Alistair Darling bottles debate on the economy
“The Chancellor is running away from the debate because he knows he is losing the debate. A confident Government, and a Prime Minister who meant what he said about restoring the primacy of Parliament, would have relished the chance for the Chancellor to appear before us today.”
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/2009/03/quick-to-announce-slow-to-deliver.html
test
188. Remember Tim likes winding up the Tories, and he knows that nothing irritates rightwingers more than a Sevruga Soc1alist. But his writing style and vocabulary, and the endless stream of errors, hardly indicates someone of great intelligence and success.
I suspect he is either an underemployed lefty student at one of the poorer universities, or a Labour party hack on extended paternity leave.
Mark Senior, FWIW I thought Brown did OK today. But yet again he was very much on the defensive, and the momentum was with an energised and angry Cameron.
Brown ended up looking very flustery - and was stammering again - never a good sign.
That’s Labour’s problems in a nutshell. After ten years in power, and after engineering the worst recession since the war, they are ALWAYS going to be on the defensive. Even on their good days, they will always look nervous, shifty and evasive.
They have no comeback to the attack that they have screwed the economy, except to vaguely and unconvincingly claim that it would arguably be even worse under the Tories.
This isn’t good enough. For this reason alone I believe they will lose quite badly in 2010. There’s no reason to vote FOR them anymore, and plenty of reasons to vote against.
On a happy note…William Hill have been forced to cut LIB DEM Seats 20-39 from 7-2 to 5-2 and 0-19 Seats from 33-1 to 20-1.
“I suspect he is either an underemployed lefty student at one of the poorer universities,”
Or I think more likely a “graduate” of said establishments
Plenty to go around, and I bet work for peanuts. Surprised Derek hasn’t got more of them doing this stuff, but then he isn’t exactly flush with cash is he.
173. Multi-millionaires who’ve inherited, like Toynbee, simply reinforce the point that you have to be really wealthy to be able to afford socialism.
@195:
They don’t have to be on the defensive: they could go on the offensive if they had some good new ideas.
And I’m not talking any of that laughable shite that the Guardian holdout loyalists dreamed up a few days ago.
I mean good ideas.
197
Lots of young hopefuls would do it for nothing, if the carrot of office was dangled. There are apparently more interns in parliament working for nothing than anything else.
189. It was closer to 1.6% in GB
193. I don’t know which is worse Darling bottling it or him putting up Ed Balls squeaky wife to take the flak instead? What will the sisterhood think?
and if you can make a forecast based on abs0lute prop0rtional l0ss, rather than turn0ut adjusted relative l0ss….
I’m sure we’d all l0ve to see it.
196 URW - Have you seen there’s a fair bit of activity on BetFair Con Maj at 1.57? (One side of it could be you, of course..)
201. Rod I took the wiki figure without checking it. I’ll accept it was 1.6%. Not that it changes my point……
197 Well there are certainly plenty of underemployed rightie students posting on here .
204 RN.Nothing to do with me.I am sitting off the pace at 1.63.
All my action has come on the two DATE markets.
207 - Example?
206
and unemployed non-students.
205. There was no “point”.
See 203..
Not sure if this has already been nebtioned on here today. I went back through the last couple of threads and could find no reference to it.
It seems that there is now a majority of people on favour of leaving the EU altogether.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/the_daily_politics/7949104.stm
195 - As the man who thought people who take bloods in an NHS clinic earn £35-50k per year, yes of course you are right.
re 196. Why on a happy note URW. The prices you reported earlier were good but Hills would only let me put small amounts on.
203. Did I make any such claim? I don’t think so. Your wording was imprecise and I pointed it out.
By the way what are all the zeros about?
200. They are nuts to do so most will not get a second look - I suspect the political parties have a high turnover of people who don’t get paid, thinking they can get somewhere and never do.
Having worked for a political party (Paid) it is not something that opens doors for you on a CV either!
re 211. This poll, in the usual BBC manner, did not have a politically balanced sample and so tells us very little.
213-Ill chosen phrase,MS.I got on this morning and was looking forward to future Betfair action maybe.
Your money must have been what forced the change in price.
215
It’s just one of those jobs, like journalism, arts, development, where there is an excess of arts graduates in comparison to the available work. Employeers, including political parties, take advantage.
@211:
It’s a bit of a leading question, but it’s interesting nonetheless.
Not least because the BNP will be the only party with an unambiguous message on the EU come June.
211. Remarkable findings. I suspect it isn’t quite accurate. Remember the Today programme poll on who people thought was the most powerful person in Britain. Blair? Brown? Murdoch? No, it was Barroso. UKIP later admitted to fixing the poll.
Anecdotal Story.
Just had Labour canvassers around. This is in a margin seat and in a “margin” ward i.e affluent, but better described as full of aspirational types (the sort of area that loved Tony in 97) big mortgages, decent jobs, low crime, low anti-social problems etc. Not a single person wants to answer the door to them.
Maybe this is why Nick only has good stories to tell on the canvassing trail, the vast majority just can’t even be bothered to listen to Labour’s point of view or argue the toss if they disagree.
@220:
I reckon 80% of the electorate wouldn’t know Manuel Barroso from Javier Solana or Hans Gert-Poettering.
“By the way what are all the zeros about?”
post kept getting blocked for some reason…
Interesting that the PMQ video on the Parliament website only provides the first patsy question and then cuts off and directs you to Toenails on the Daily politics.
Now I am not a conspiracy theorist at all, but put together with his blog silence it seems odd.
Now TWO national leaders from the British Isles have been made to look like buffoons upon their first visits to the White House:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article5931422.ece
Given Obama’s near total dependence on teleprompters, I wonder if he would have been elected if such instruments didn’t exist. Examples of him speaking without them are sometimes downright embarrassing.
220
The differnece being that was a self selecting poll by the BBC. This is carried out on behalf of the BBC by Comres. Now given that the BBC is not exactly the most EUsceptic oragnisation out there and also gets EU money, I am surprised at the result.
Also with relation to Mikes point, given that they are not asking a voting intention question I fail to see how having a ‘politically balanced’ sample would help. GIven that there are EUrophiles and EUrosceptics in all parties how exactly would you decide what was or was not a politically balanced sample on this question?
Fraser Nelson compares the current unemployment issue with Gordon’s favourite recession (1990-1992). No wonder Gordon seemed decidely shifty and evasive today:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3453956/the-unemployment-pain-is-only-just-beginning.thtml
218. oh yes - fair enough.
I just don’t think is right that students go through 3/4 years of paying tution fees and racking up debt for living costs to do non-paid jobs. Most of the jobs I have done have not required a degree or even A-levels. This country has a lunatic strategy of encouraging folk to go to university and there is nothing at the end to employ them.
What really annoys me is immigrants who come here and ‘are said’ to have the skills who get jobs graduates from this country could do. I used to go out drinking with this bloke who was from Burundi who after a few pints admited he made his CV up and ended up working in the charitable/local government sector. He was a mate but i don’t condone it - the UK and particular lefties do down our own and others come in and take the jobs.
The ignorant arseholes running some of the UK banks without any formal banking qualifications would have been the same ones complainging about skill shortages etc - yet folk like me who have qualifications and skills in the sector are not taken on board because in an intial period we would have to be monitered closly to meet FSA regulation. The same organisation that lets banks do anything in corperate strategy.
It makes me really angry and half the cock-ends in positions of responsibility take the ingrained view of skills shortages without even knowing what they are talking about. They take the low risj approach with employmanet but gamble the whole futures prosperity on bull shit markets they do not even understand. Crikey it makes me so angry!
@226:
I think it’s general opinion that all non headline voting intention polls are rubbish, for precisely that reason.
212. Oooh, did I hit a nerve? lol.
Re the NHS thing, I was talking about non-doctor NHS staff at University College Hospital. It seems I was quite close to reality.
Look at the wages for NURSES at this UCH advertising site:
http://jobs.trovit.co.uk/jobs/university-college-london-hospitals-nhs-foundation-trust
Nursing wages between 25k and 44k; a nurse consultant job on 70k. My point larger point, that it is something of a myth to say NHS staff are all hideously underpaid, was equally valid. Especially when half the nurses, consultants etc in a ward are just standing around doing nothing - as was the case at UCH when I visited.
I repeat, your mildly literate and occasionally funny remarks, coupled with a limited vocabulary and poor syntax, and a telling inability to write fast AND accurately, indicate to me a student of slightly above-average intelligence at one of the less good universities. You have an IQ of about 110? I’m right, aren’t I?
Or you are indeed a Labour party apparatchik on house-husband duty.
re 226. They are asking a political question so the very least you should expect is that the sample should be politically balanced. You do this by asking hoe respondents voted in 2005.
When Populus do non-voting polls of a political nature they weight in this manner.
226
I understadn the principle but still fail to see how you can get a ‘polically balanced sample’ on a question that crosses party boundaries
Martin C so political product placement polls need a balanced sample? Isn’t that covered by methodology and statistical treatment?
221 oracle, is it possible that most of your neighbours are still at work? Or they could simply be afraid of answering the door at night to strangers.
The Federal reserve starts quantitative easing
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090318/fed_interest_rates.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=TBD&ccode=TBD
“What do you think the outcome of the next UK General Election will be?”
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The findings of this poll should be digested by every serious political bettor.Its findings are totally remarkable in two very different ways.
I am not going to spell it out but just will say that it displays a quite extraordinary cluster effect.In other words we all seem to think the same way and that way is The Middle Way !
234 They may have not answered the door thinking it was oracle wanting to borrow a cup of sugar .
@craigelder writes a blog about recent upsurge in #pmqs tweeting, and what it could mean for politics. http://bit.ly/Kw7e
230 - At UCH the highest paid nurses take bloods.
Go to the press Sean, its a scandalous waste of money.
I have to admit to never having taken an IQ test so I wouldn’t like to comment.
235 - No and no!
As I said I live in a very white collar 9-5 kind of place. You see the trawl of cars piling down the road between 5-5.30pm, the vast vast majority are comfortably home with the feet up by the time the canvassing started at between 6.15-6.30 (hence the timing).
As for answering the door, nope, wasn’t even dark when they started the run, and it isn’t the sort of area where people worry. As I said it is currently a fairly very low crime / low anti-social kind of place and I regularly head off out at 2-3am for some fresh air without feeling any threat.
My point was it is a Labour seat (just), and it is one that Blair won over 97 onwards.
231. So what would you use as a basis for the political weighting?
235 - Ho ho ho.
243 (correction) 238 - Ho ho ho!
@233:
What’s a “political product placement poll”?
If you ask a political question, you MUST weight the result by voting intention to get meaningful data.
You do bang on about this a lot Mike but it irritates me just as much now; I find myself firing off emails.
One of the prices of loving pb.
244
Again, when you have asked that question then, what assumptions do you make about political affiliation which would make meaningful and accurate corrections to a poll about an issue which crosses party boundaries?
This is simply a red herring.
A shrewd football commentator suggested that you could tell that a match was dull if the crowd were doing Mexican waves. I wonder if the same could be said of pb threads where tim was allowed to indulge his hobby horses.
211
See post 190 on previous thread.
@246:
Well, you have many choices. You could look at the 2005 G.E. result, look at polling averages, pick one pollster’s result on a certain day, extrapolate a share of the vote from the last local elections, what may you.
To do nothing, however, is to assume that people of different political persuasions will all statistically answer the same way to political questions.
Which is just silly and smelly.
Sex Education, New Labour style:
http://www.channel4.com/catchup-player/player.htm?brandId=kntv-sex&contractId=44620&episodeId=3
Pffft.
235. The Fed started QE months ago, this is just a new variant.
Evening all so we have the BBC saying Brown was wonderful and we have ITN and SKY saying he was a disaster and that his ministers are equally bad with McNulty the employment minister accusing Dermot Murnaghan of skullduggery for asking him a question about, employment and Lord Fop ranting and being accused by Joey Jones of telling lies. Clearly the BBC will have to give serious consideration to their Brown Central mouthpiece stance.
Folks why are you wondering about Tim’s identity? He is the chap upon whom Harry Enfield based his characters. When he was younger he was Tory Boy and now that he has “grown up” he is Tim Nice But Dim.
NEWS FLASH
US Fed flooding in more cash. Channel 4 News
So you would use data from a national election to address supra-national issues? I don’t think so. After all how many times have we heard that the EU is not an issue at General Elections?
You could of course use the last Euro results which I would accept. However, as 65% or thereabouts would have to be ‘did not vote/ won’t vote’ and the largest party share would be 9.5% of the sample, I doubt whether having such weightings would make any substantive difference….
221: Would you expect the politeness/apathy to extend to an increase in the proportion actually voting Labour, as in our recent by-election (Labout +4%, Con -2%, BNP -4%, LD -2%, turnout up)? If so, I don’t mind settling for that…
254 is for 249 Martin Coxall……
Martin C if you want to research possible technical changes to the health service then you don’t want to have any party political input if you can avoid it as you are talking to the population in general. Example, the best place for an A and E department. Should there be hospital TV as well as hospital radio? Do you prefer white uniforms to pink ones? What scares you most about going to the doctor? They are all, eventually, political questions but need to be treated as product placement type research if you want a response which reflects the consumers overall.
If you are wanting data on anything which you see as in the party political arena then the voting intention is important.
But to filter more general questions that way misses the point that you are consulting the consumers not the sub-set of the consumers who intend to vote.
It can be tricky keeping the things apart but it can be done. Often it is not done properly, or rather, it used not to be.
The fact that a representative sample of the population shows 55% of the population wants out of the EU is important as it shows a general attitude. To ignore that because a politically weighted result shows it is 30% can be counterproductive as those who are not committed voters now might become so if courted appropriately.
So both results are valuable for sensible party hacks.
The words quantitative easing seem to conjure up images from Rowlandson, Gillray or Cruckshank of Mervyn King excreting vast quantities of £20 notes.
The Eye has some wonderful new logos for the banks.
255 Nick Palmer adopts the “Mark Senior faith in by elections” rule.
straws, at clutching?
259 Desperate times require desperate measures……
Nick, you are aware that you can do what David Davies did and stand down and force a by election. I am sure that with your confidence that you will be re-elected that it will not require much courage to do. You could be in the avant garde, showing the rest of the Labour party that the election is there to be won. Or you could just carry on taking the allowancess.
261 - Why would he want to amke a laughing stock of himself like Davis did.
Memo to David - Best go through the male menopause without a by election.
Another dramatic policy success for this Government:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/5011764/Childminder-numbers-fall-dramatically-after-Labour-introduces-nappy-curriculum.html
Mind you with the increasing numbers out of work we don’t really need all those child minders anymore?
255. Nick Palmer MP:
Nick do you still have confidence in the prime Minister?
263 - Excellent news.
The poor childminders are giving up as high quality nurseries expand.
tim, the difference being he genuinely has some risk. If he had the courage to take the risk he would not be making himself look a tit in the way Davies did. So if he is confident of re-election in the face of a wide range of opinion why not do it and prove himself to be a man of his word not his spin.
It makes me chuckle to see Alan Johnson is second favourite for next permanent Labour leader - behind Harriet and equal with Milliband D. Labour’s best hopes appear to be Harperson, a guy who is on record saying that he couldn’t handle the job and teenage ‘tache Bananaman.
What a sorry joke Labour are. Joke of the Universe, joke on us.
And Kudos to Cameron for taking the hit from the speaker to point out the phoney in the room.
Nick Robinson - does he realy believe people will ‘miss’ the unemployment figures in sheer horror that DC has had to retract a comment about liar Brown being a phoney?
Oh the humanity!!!!!! What were the figure on employment again? I don’t know, I am too upset about Dave’s awful phoney comment and I am voting Labour next time.
Robinson = git
266. Palmer doesn’t dare, what with the risk that if he stood down Lab would probably insist on an all-women short-list for the ensuing by-election.
He’d end up having to get a job. Nasty.
268. Nick should do a good job of political sabotege on Brown!
When I use to play computer games many years ago - I used to find it was more fun killing your own side than the other side! 
I expect a suitably barbed comment about the Tories in the 1990’s from some Labourite or even LD!
265. Tim. Evidence for high quality nurseries expanding?
Oh the intrigues of the Labour Party. Will ‘Hard-up Hatti’ get her way?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/michaelcrick/2009/03/does_brown_face_another_scotti.html
271 - It is amazing the disconnect between the top tier of the Labour Party and it’s grassroots..
270 And evidence for said “high quality nurseries” being better for child development than childminders. And for why it is reasonable for government action to reduce parents’ choice in this way.
255. I think those figures you quote are based on average votes of the 3 candidates in 2007. It has been reported elsewhere that based on the highest placed candidates in 2007 the changes in share were Con +0.5%, Lab +1.6%, BNP -2.5% Lib Dem -0.9% and UKIP +1.4%.
273. Phil C. Tim isnt claiming anything about child development. He also isnt claiming anything about government action. With Tim, his speciality is to wriggle by denying he said something or attacking just a tiny weaker part of an argument. It’s the sign of an inferior mind, but effective in debate when your audience or your opponent isnt clever enough. In law and in academia, this approach doesnt work as it doesnt answer the question.
A senior Conservative MP has angrily denied dozing off during a speech by shadow chancellor George Osborne.
John Redwood was accused by Chief Secretary to the Treasury Yvette Cooper of sleeping through “about half” of Mr Osborne’s speech on the economy.
She also accused Uxbridge Tory MP John Randall of nodding off
Poor ‘ol John probably dreaming of becoming Tory party leader.
275 He said “excellent news”, he is claiming it is a good thing.
But agree he needs to explain what a “high quality nursery” is and give the evidence that they are expanding.
276 Coldstone more likely they were fed up having to look across at the smug coupon of Mrs Ballocks, a woman who makes Hazel Blears sound like an intellectual.
276. It was claimed by Ed Balls squeaky wife was it? ROFLMAO
Well if Yvette Cooper claimed it we know it must be untrue then.
265. Amazingly tim, the article says your statement is bollocks. Shocker.
The number of childminders has fallen dramatically since the Government made the job much more demanding
Tens of thousands of people have left the profession under Labour because of rising levels of paperwork and state interference.
After ‘the election that never was’ comes the sequel ‘The economic recovery that never was’.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/5011911/Minister-predicts-green-shoots-on-day-when-unemployment-reaches-over-two-million.html
coldstone, go to radio 5 live iplayer for today, 15 minutes in and listen to the response. Glad you brought this up is makes Cooper look a complete dork.
sorry always help when i tell you which programme, it is the drive programme.
I can’t wait for the next instalment
Do we think that this is one war which Gordon Brown and a few hundred marines might win? If a few hundred Royal Marines backed up by an aircraft carrier with choppers and jets cannot overpower a few dozen laid back Caribbean policemen on donkeys, then we really are a failed state:
http://www.caribbean360.com/News/Caribbean…0000007052.html
TCI leader wants outside help fighting British takeover
281 - Do they live in the same world as everyone else?
OT F1, Button now favourite to win the Australian GP with Betfair !
David Cameron ‘Dirty Labour’ speech:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/david-cameron/5012158/David-Cameron-warns-of-dirty-election-campaign.html
280. Scott P. No, that’s not what Tim said. Nothing in Tim’s statement contradicts the article. You are assuming things not actually stated. That is Tim’s modus operandi. Go back and read his statement and limit yourself to a literal reading.
277. Phil C. No. He can claim that he is referring to his interpretation “high quality” replacing child minders.
Incidentally, anyone else noticed the £ is still sliding against the Euro - now 1.06. Presumably, as it is up against the Dollar, the Dollar is also having a bad time against the Euro?
Quantitative Easing anybody?
281. Vera Baird is dumb if she thinks it is not as ‘bad’ as elsewhere and there are green shoots. I can tell you that far from green shoots we have not even finished ‘economic Autumn’ let alone experienced ‘economic winter’.
How do these idiots get into positions of authority with their clueless statements and insensitive timing.
284
In the event that the link may not work
PROVIDENCIALES, Turks and Caicos, March 18, 2009 - The Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) Premier Michael Misick wants the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and other international agencies to step in to block a decision by the British government to take over the day to day running of the group of islands - one of its overseas territories in the Caribbean.
Following Monday’s announcement that the Turks and Caicos constitution would be partially suspended, resulting in the removal of the House of Assembly and the Cabinet and British Governor Gordon Wetherall running the country, Premier Misick has lashed out at what he said is a “draconian” move that smacks of “modern neo-colonialism”.
“This step by the British cannot be right, morally or otherwise…It is wrong in the 21st century to have an entire population re-colonised in this fashion, with the executive, legislative, judicial and all other powers lying in the hands of the colonial masters, but vested in one person who himself, in this case, is not a citizen,” he said.
“This action says that, despite all the progress we have made and how far we have come, from slavery and colonialism to the modern day, the British still think that there are none among us who are worthy and/or capable of running the affairs of our country,” he said.
“They still view us all as a corrupt people, unfit to govern ourselves. Our people will now have no say in the governance of our country as the House of Assembly which is made up of the duly elected representatives of the people is to be suspended. We cannot and should not take this lying down. This action represents a clear and present danger to the interest of our people and we must now more than ever unite as a people for our national pride and in our national interest.”
Premier Misick further called for outside intervention.
“I call on the international community, including CARICOM, the Commonwealth, the United Nations and other such bodies to intercede on our behalf as we are vulnerable to the strong arm of modern day colonialism,” he said.
288 Not sure I follow.
289. That is my view - the euro zone i don’t think will QE.
I have noticed the slide and in playing the investor game that i mentioned elsewhere have taken huge ‘hypothetical’ positions in the euro. It has provided most of my find growth!
It is difficult to say though where the currency will go but I should imagine the Euro sound is the ’soundest money’ out of US, EURO and Pound.
What the Fed did in the US tonight was quite unprecedented.
$1.25 trillion injected into the economy by boosting the fed reserves balance sheet.
One commentator on CNBC tonight thought that one of the reasons that the fed is stepping in to buy back 300BN of US treasuries is because they are very nervous at the prospect of China starting to offload some of their US holdings.
This will certainly in the short term give the US mkts a significant boost.Maybe see the S&P up above 900 very soon.
This could in turn help the UK mkts although they have markedly underperformed the states over the last week.
288. Where in the article does it mention expansion of nurseries, high quality or otherwise?
285. Now that is a good question. I do wonder whether they have been given something that induces a ‘Neverneverland’ view of reality.
284 ‘If a few hundred Royal Marines backed up by an aircraft carrier with choppers and jets cannot overpower a few dozen laid back Caribbean policemen on donkeys, then we really are a failed state’
Not a chance. The Royal Navy’s carriers are currently tasked to the TAURUS 09 exercise in the Med.
296 - Probably a Labour Party briefing note!
294. That represents about 10% of US GDP - that is a massive stimulous!
I have come to the conclusion the only way out of this from a policy makers context who are asked to do something by their political masters is create the mother of all economic booms to turn this round. It will all get out of control and it will be even more painful to stop it later but as always todays politicians put it off till after the next election……
On Turks & Caicos:
Now is this because of:
a) Corruption
b) It’s a tax free haven
c) This guy is more self-serving and profligate than Gordo and Gordo’s jealous?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article5919534.ece?token=null&offset=0&page=1
Gordo better make sure he doesn’t upset Oprah though. She’ll call Obama………
286, interesting.
Not following the news with great detail, but Button should be up there with the favourites. I’d still back Kubica or Raikonnen or Massa (generally) as being faster.
Nevertheless Brawn (both team and man) have made a remarkable comeback following huge doubts over their existence this year.
It had to happen:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2009/03/labour-still-isnt-working.html
301- Morris dancer
Apparently all other teams are currently gathering as much information as possible on the Brawn GP car. Rumors of cheating are already flying around. This shows that they are really concerned…
however the Button price is too low and is probably driven down by his nationality and not realistic expectations. A Raikonnen or Massa win seems to be a much vbetter bet.
302 - Yeah inevitable.
303 - Too quick off the mark I think. The easy rebuttal is, only as high as when we found it and lower than last recession, etc, etc, etc, zzzzzzzzzzz.
Give it 6-9 months, getting on to 3 million unemployed (and still going), then it will be a very powerful line of attack.
I have put in a request on Betfair Politics forum for Seat markets.
Here’s hoping…….
303, Brawn better hope some people wearing red don’t complain.
Be interesting to see how tactically astute the Brawn team is. The man himself is sharp, we know that much. Ferrari have always been pretty adventurous with tactics and it usually pays off, whereas McLaren, I think, are too conservative and sometimes pay the price.
Anyway, we may find out this season just how hot or not Button is.
302. Labour Labour Labour - Out Out Out!
295 It doesn’t, that’s why tim isn’t contradicting it. It makes no mention of nurseries, hence you can say anything you like about nurseries without contradicting it.
Pitiful, Labour are well aware that they are likely to lose at the next election do they,
a) come out with new policies that will invigorate their support
b) highlight why they are the party to take the country forward in difficult times
c) fall back on their history of competence over the last 12 years highlighting the benefits they have brought the country
d) look at changing the election system in their favour.
http://www.labourlist.org/time_is_running_out_for_pr
Labour to clobber the motorist:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/oilprices/5012467/Petrol-prices-to-rise-again.html
288, 309.
The proportion of day-care group providers inspected with good or outstanding childcare has risen from 53% in 2005–06 to 64% in 2007–08, though the proportion of childminders judged good or outstanding has fallen from 65% to 59%.
http://www.ofsted.gov.uk/Ofsted-home/Leading-to-excellence/Summary
288, 309.
Good news all round.
UK nursery market value expands to £4.1bn
By Karen Faux, Nursery World, 18 March 2009
The UK children’s nurseries market has continued to expand despite the recession and was worth £4.1bn in 2008, with a 7.8 per cent year-on increase, according to market analysts Laing & Buisson.
For those yearning for the firm smack of government…House of Cards on the YESTERDAY Channel right now.
308 In,out,shake it all about?
310. Don - that is dreadful - I actually don’t know why Labour want to win the next election as it will be a complete poison challice! I can understand Laboour wanting to keep about 250 seats but changing the electoral system is a non starter!
315. ‘Coming soon’ on our screens!
314 - That isn’t firm government it is sadistic government!
317 I won’t even go there with jokes/puns about the ‘Brown stuff’ ,as all decorum will fly out of the window
Why are the Tories releasing their “Labour still not working” poster now? Very bad tactics; why not wait for a) figures to increase b) election time to draw clase, for maximum impact?
Pickles might be excellent on the campaign trail but I’m not sure he really knows what he is doing strategically.
I think this is interesting:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Russias-Vladimir-Putin-Snapped-In-Disguise-While-Working-As-KGB-Officer-During-Reagan-Visit/Article/200903315244360?lpos=World_News_Carousel_Region_3&lid=ARTICLE_15244360_Russias_Vladimir_Putin_Snapped_In_Disguise_While_Working_As_KGB_Officer_During_Reagan_Visit
Anyone doubting the potential for a KGB inspired totalitarian regieme resurgence during this economic slump from seeing how key putin was in pre- 1989 days should think again.
319. I think jokes about that would ’shatter opinion’! There seems to be a glass ceiling on jokes like that!
As anyone seen toenails robinson on the tv since this morning,he’s not up dated his blog and when I watched the commons bit of the news,jo coburn did it,the toe’s has disappeared.(Thank god)
320 - I think it is timed right because at the end of the day i) there is an outside chance of an election before next May and ii) any campaign needs time to resonate.
AGAIN the White House dynamic duo of Obama & Biden can’t seem to decide if a happy and prosperous tomorrow is just around the corner or if, instead, we’re on a toboggan headed for the abyss:
“Vice President Joe Biden needs a history lesson. Not only that, he should be ashamed of his assertion that the economic mess facing President Barack Obama is worse than the one President Franklin D. Roosevelt had to deal with when entering office in the winter of 1933… [M]r. Biden’s claim is wrong by any objective measure, and it steps all over White House talking points that Americans should be confident that the end of the world as we know it is not at hand. Moreover, it reinforces a mentality of victimhood that is neither good morally nor economically for the American people… This time, he proclaimed that Mr. Obama “inherited the most difficult first 100 days of any president, I would argue, including Franklin Roosevelt.””
http://blogs.wsj.com/capitaljournal/2009/03/17/a-history-lesson-for-vice-president-biden/
This is amazing. Shows that Wales has its redeeming features after all
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2FX9rviEhw
326- I should note that some might also be of the opinion that Lincoln had a more difficult first 100 days than Obama (I’m presuming, for the sake of argument, that Biden has heard of President Lincoln and therefore ruled him out intentionally when making his statement).
326. I thought it was a Labour Party outing for a minute. LOL!
327,Like I keep saying’bollocks obama’
Extraordinary quote in the Guardian today, in their “what the f*ck are Labour gonna do now” series of articles.
Here it is:
“One Labour cabinet minister argues: ‘For three or four decades we had economic decline, then we had Thatcherism and the economic miracle of the 90s, but now people are worrying whether we have returned to the period of economic decline. People are worrying: have we gone back to the bad old days.’”
!!
In other words, here is a LABOUR minister admitting that the decades of socialism before Thatcher were an economic disaster, that it was Thatcher who saved the British economy, and that it was the Tories who consolidated this recovery with an economic “miracle” in the 1990s. And now it is Labour who may have steered us back to the bad old days of Labour-esque economic decline.
lol. Please go away, Labour, just…. go the F away. Even YOU admit that you are shite. Enough.
323. ‘Toenails’ is in the wrong job as he can never ‘do it’ as people want it. If he does not follow the Labour line then he gets accused of being a tory and if he follows the Labour line he is up Gordon’s not ‘inconsiderable’ arse!
‘Toenails’ should have stayed at ITV - I remember seeing him when he went there in 2002 - The only time I have been to PMQ’s was a few days after he landed that job and he looked chuffed to bits!
It actually sticks out more in my mind than PMQ’s as IDS was a bag of b0ll0cks and Tony Blair pretended to be concerned about showing blunkett to his seat (You could tell it was all about making Blair look good).
The 2005 campaign where socialists claimed he lead an attack on the then PM on a poster on ‘tory cuts’ and details about his student days just go too show what a difficult line Robinson has too tread.
Personally I like Robinson but he should have stayed at ITN or gone to sky. He would not have been subjected to leftwing co-ersion techniques with obvious backlash from the right!
312 We can all quote selectively
Childcare is inadequate in: 3% of childminders, 4% of day-care settings and 6% of out-of-school settings.
But as Ken has pointed out, this is a clear non-sequitur.
You implied that the Early Years education agenda had driven out poor childminders, to be replaced by “quality nurseries”. In this case we would have surely seen a rise in the quality of childminders. This is certainly not evidenced in the figures.
It is also the case that this seems to measure how far childcare “settings” have exceeded a threshold, which is not the same as measuring comparative quality.
There is also no part of the report which compares childminding services and nurseries, find childminders lacking and recommends a move from one model of childcare to another.
Finally, I’d guess that this Ofsted report is at least in part a big circular argument and pats on the back those childminding services which follow the “Early Years” agenda complained of in the original article. So self-referential and bogus.
Apologies to ken for humouring tim.
330,sean and to think they still get 32% or more in votes.
Sometimes Brown reminds me of King Canute trying to hold the tide back. Does he really think other countries aren’t going to indulge in protectionism and are going to let him implement his New World Order:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/18/usemployment-gordon-brown
330- Give him (or her) a consolation prize for honesty, though.
334. Brown is a plank! Has he ever been unemployed? Brown does not give a shit!
309, 312, 313, 332. Oh dear.
Congratulations tim, another thread hijacked. I hope you get a bonus.
The article says (paraphrased) people are leaving because of box ticking.
tim says people are leaving as quality nurseries expand.
The arcane argument of logic rests on the interpretation of the word ‘as’, which Chambers gives as both ‘while’ and ‘because’.
My contention is that the statement ‘people are leaving because quality nurseries are expanding’ is bollocks stands. The article does not support the statement, although the statement does not contradict the article. The statement offers an alternative reason for the decline.
The statement ‘people are leaving while quality nurseries are expanding’ may be true, but the evidence that tim provides for an increase in quality nurseries is a report from the same box tickers who rated Haringey Council childcare as high quality…
Ironic?
326 That is great - just what I needed after a long hard day at work.
333. I don’t believe Brown will get 32% in votes at the next GE.
It now looks like unemployment is gonna rise for the next year and a half at least, peaking at maybe 3m+, or even 3.3m - i.e. MORE than under Thatcher. And this is no medicinal recession designed to flush inflation from the system - this is just a big bad stupid Labour downturn.
And the economy is unlikely to start growing again until 2010 at the very earliest: the IMF today forecast Britain’s recession will be the worst since the war, and the sharpest in the G8, and the longest of the major nations.
I wonder if Labour will reach even 30% at the next GE in these dire circumstances. I can see their voters just sitting on their arses and Labour polling 26 or 27%. While angry Tories turn out in their millions.
Possible Cameron landslide.
331,martin,the man only follows one line,critical of cameron and clinging to the back side of bottler
332 - PhilC.
“The proportion of day-care group providers inspected with good or outstanding childcare has risen from 53% in 2005–06 to 64% in 2007–08, though the proportion of childminders judged good or outstanding has fallen from 65% to 59%”.
http://www.ofsted.gov.uk/Ofsted-home/Leading-to-excellence/Summary
You’ll find that childminders looking after up to about the age of two can do a good job.
After that, for numerous reasons it becomes more difficult and children tend to be better off in high quality nurseries.
High quality nurseries are expanding.Thats a good thing.
The Telegraph is spinning the decline in childminders as a bad news story, they have the same agenda as jsfl did upthread.
337 - The initial post on childcare was by jsfl at 263.
Correcting the herd is not hijacking a thread.
339,hope your right.
Sean T, I brought Ton Knox’s Gensis Secret from Waterstones Northampton today.
I’ll let you know what I think when I finish it.
339 - If the medicicinal recession of 80-81 flushed inflation from the system, why was another medicinal recession to flush inflation necessary in ten years later?
333. Well they’ve built up a big base of core voters during the last 12 years, lots of public sector workers and more and more people dependent on benefits. I find it hard to believe anybody not working for or dependent upon the state is planning on voting for them.
339. Unempoyment may well reach 4 million - when i was in the job centre the other day having a 1 year out of work interview the lady behind the desk agreed 4 Million is likely! You then have the people on long term sick and everyone else. We are not talking 1980’s here but far far worse.
342. Hey don’t bring me into this. I want nothing to do with you!
347. The strange thing is just as the unemployment figures are rising and the vacancies figures are failing they are also going to start forcing those on incapacity benefit or whatever who can work to get back into the job market. I think 4 million unemployed is quite possible……
342 Correcting the herd??, Tim you are always wrong, so you couldn’t be correcting anything.Its a non sequitor.
Re 326 Reminds me of the old Welsh love song…”it had to be you (ewe)..”
351 - Provocative but funny!
320 - today marked the biggest increase in unemployment since records began. I suspect thats why.
And ‘posters’ only ever get unveiled for the benefit of the media these days.
it will probably get unveiled again when the figures sadly reach 3 million (this is an IMF prediction isn’t it - before Lord Rio gets hot under his collar)
219 - “the BNP will be the only party with an unambiguous message”– that sums them up and we all know what that message is.
Saw a repeat of the Holocaust episode from World at War last night …
Re PMQs someone said - “Brown ended up looking very flustery - and was stammering again - never a good sign.”
Interesting
I saw his speech on nuclear power/disarmament the other day and (ignoring the content) it was very poorly delivered. He looked edgy he stammered and raced through the speech with a very poor delivery. There were of course all the usual clever-but-pointless soundbites but they could have been inserted into any old speech. It was all very odd - I guess when you’re not speaking (sorry, ladling syrup) to Congress it must be a chore.
Maybe the medication was wearing off.
343. I had lunch with a hard left pseudo communist friend yesterday (also a successful photographer).
After he had finished ranting about the evils of capitalism and saying the Kredit Krunch proved that Marx had been right all along, he then admitted, sotte voce, that “if we have to have a capitalist system, we might as well have the Tories in government because at least they understand money, unlike these incompetent Labour c*nts”.
He added, perhaps unnecessarily, that he was “never going to vote Labour again”.
I wonder how many people are quietly thinking along these lines: “we have an economic disaster, due to some weird fault in the banking system. I don’t understand it. Labour certainly don’t understand it. We may as well get some hard ruthless capitalists into government cause at least they will know what they are doing.”
This may be why an apparent crisis of capitalism, as we are witnessing, is not especially benefiting the left. People LIKE capitalism, they like having nice cars and low taxes and houses that grow in value. They are very annoyed that capitalism has gone wrong.
But this doesn’t mean they want to elect Hugo Chavez. They want someone competent to come along and fix the mess. A party that understands money.
The Tories.
341 It’s only over one year though, let’s wait for another set of data before we attempt to define a trend.
That’s purely your opinion about childminders not being as good as nurseries for the over 2s (and an unsupported assertion to boot) and as I have no opinion on the subject I will not comment.
If the number of nurseries offering a high quality service is expanding, that is a good thing, although I have reservations about the whole Early Years agenda and therefore how competent Ofsted is at measuring anything to do with the under 5s.
The decline in childminders due to bureaucratic garbage is definitely a bad thing as well, though, especially as the evidence is that the quality does not seem to be improving. Should the policy not be to offer quality childminding services as well?
To keep on topic: yes David Laws is obviously a weapons grade clock-end.
350. He’s just getting confused about who he’s talking to. Supporting the party he supports, he’s gotten used to talking to sheep when he goes to party functions. Now he thinks he’s at one of the functions. It’s the stress of failure. No doubt he’s suffering something related to PTSD.
339 I can remember the day in 1993 that the BBC and most newspapers expected unemployment to reach 3 million. Today on R4 was dominated with the bad news, Labour shadow ministers declaring doom. Figures released at noon showed a fall in unemployment.
For a time a chastened R4 reverted to reporting News rather than spin and supposition. Not long enough though.
Problem with unemployment forecasting is that as it lags economic activity it is hard to forecast when it will peak and how much it will peak at. A strong Government programme to cut employment taxes and costs might hold back the rise. Problem is they seem to think NI rises, expansion of rights to part time and contracting workers and Harriets mad schemes on equality are the way to go.
353 We may as well get some hard ruthless capitalists into government cause at least they will know what they are doing.
I thought Cameron and Osborne had inherited all their cash.
Were they ruthless in some tuck shop raid that was never solved?
Organise a hostile takeover of the next bunk?
Actually you may be right.
Here’s the hammer of the left all tooled up.
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/10/29/article-0-024784E6000005DC-390_468×321_popup.jpg
356. The other strategic mistake is Labour saying in the budget they will put the price up of making folk redundant. Now if you were a small firm given such information surely you will terminate earlier rather than after a budget where the cost is put up!
356. I remember that surprising fall in unemployment as well - suddenly we knew we were out of the worst. A good moment. It showed that the Thatcherite reforms had worked - people could be hired just as quickly as they were fired.
Trouble is since then we’ve had ten years of inept Labour legislation and interfering EU red tape, undermining many of the Thatcherite improvements.
So, given the frightening speed at which unemployment is rising right now I will be amazed if we don’t top out over 3m. Amazed - but pleasantly surprised.
4m seems unduly pessimistic. But who knows.
351.”Re 326 Reminds me of the old Welsh love song…”it had to be you (ewe)..””
Groan…
354.”I wonder how many people are quietly thinking along these lines: “we have an economic disaster, due to some weird fault in the banking system. I don’t understand it. Labour certainly don’t understand it. We may as well get some hard ruthless capitalists into government cause at least they will know what they are doing.””
Tories get voted in when we need to administer the nasty medicine, Labour always get to give out the sugar cube.
342. Tim. You’ve been found out again. You posted that high quality child care replaced child minders in reply to the original Telegraph article. However, the figures you give only cover the period up to March 2008. In other words, you are wrong. You have no evidence that the child minders who left after the introduction of new standards were inferior - the new standards were only introduced in September. Typical Tim, wrong as usual. Dim Timmy - you like to criticise the herd, but in reality you are stupider than most of the herd. You are just more cunning in your choice of words.
Also if we were to examine the decline in quality of child minding - it may well be a consequence of the fall in the number of child minders - it is possible that the best child minders have been driven out of business since the decline in good and outstanding child minders from 64% (2005) to 57% (2007) is at the same time as the fall in child minders from 72,000 to 65,000. One cannot draw the conclusions you draw.
Another win to me.
Mike, you are spot on. Again and again people who know better make completely inaccurate observations of polling. You ought to challenge them on it publicly. Secondly you are right that in the case of the Lib Dems it is doubly stupid to knee-jerk attack the Tories when Labour are going down.