MORI has the Tories heading towards 50% again
February 17th, 2009
CONSERVATIVES 48% (+4)
LABOUR 28% (-2)
LIB DEMS 17% (nc)
…and Labour are back in the 20s?
The latest MORI poll, just out, has some quite dramatic changes with the Tories now up to 48% - twenty points ahead of Labour who are on 28%.
Downing Street might just take some comfort that this is not quite as bad for Brown as last September when MORI had the Tories on 52% with Labour down on 24%.
Clearly the past week has been quite dreadful for the government and it was almost inevitable that the polling would pick this up.
The MORI top-line numbers, of course, only include those 100% certain to vote and this tends to produce dramatic changes when things are going very bad or very well for a party. So in the second set of figures that the pollster issues, the shares of those naming a party, it’s C39:L31:LD19.
What the poll has not done is confirm the swing to the Lib Dems that we saw last week in the three telephone pollsters that use past vote weighting - ICM, Populus and ComRes. But MORI’s 17% share of last month has been retained. Back in November Nick Clegg’s party was getting just 12%.
In all the polling at the moment the critical element is what the numbers will do to the internal machinations of the Labour party. It’s hard to see how 20% deficits from the firm are going to do anything other than add to the gloom and speculation about the leadership.
There will come a moment, surely, Brown’s position could come under real pressure.
MessageSpace Advertising
first
surely not first!
first?
Is this the poll that gives the labour plotters the reason to try and force Brown out?
As I said surely not!!
The thing is, there are going to be plenty more weeks in the next year which are ‘just dreadful for the government’.
No, sorry, this is not news. I can’t find any reference to it on the BBC.
“…so in the second set of figures that the pollster issues, the shares of those naming a party, it’s C39:L31:LD19.”
That is very encouraging. With the benefit of an election campaign the 22%+ looks on for the Lib Dems.
I wonder if ICM will be asked to do a poll to see what they come up with. If they came up with these figures, the bunker would be an interesting place to be a fly on the wall.
IPSOS Mori have made the most significant change to polling methodology in recent years through controlling the % from the public sector.
Compared to other pollsters their C vote is now the highest, their LAB vote is mid range and their LD vote is 2nd lowest.
Is it the Public Sector vote that is leading to this higher level of polling for the LDs in the 3 telephone pollsters? Something that Yougov may not suffer from because it does not rely upon people being in when they are first contacted?
Slightly off topic, given for the first time in my lifetime we could have a negative inflation figure next month, is it possible for the Labour party to have a negative polling figure next month? i.e. Tories on 52% labour on minus 10%
8 - The fly would have to be very careful not to be squished by a flying Nokia.
It’s my birthday, and what a splendid birthday present from MORI.
Has anyone looked any further at the petrol price affect on polls? Pump price has gone back up again so I guess there may be still be a link
12 - Happy Birthday
“…and Labour are back in the 20s?”
I love schadenfreude.
10 - joining in on the O/T theme…
Inflation on stuff people need to survive is getting out of hand - Gas 49%, Vegetables 16%, Food in general over 10%
People don’t need to buy new clothes, cars, white goods - they do need to feed themselves and heat their homes.
So we might have deflation in some parts of the economy - but where it really matters, we have huge price rises.
In answer to the final question: “There will come a moment, surely, Brown’s position could come under real pressure” - how about June 5th once Euro and local elections are in.
Meaningless. They’re all w**kers.
It’s like what Anton Chigurh (sp?) says to Woody Harrelson’s character in ‘No Country for Old Men’ — sometimes you’ve just got to bravely accept defeat, it least then you have dignity if nothing else.
[8] - I would guess ICM February is due next Monday.
It’s still slightly bewildering that 28% of people are prepared to vote for Labour. They can’t ALL be mentally impaired.
What IS their problem? Hell-o? Morons?! Get a grip!
Hopefully, the Labour vote will soon be so low I’ll be able to visit all the party’s supporters personally, and continuously shove a lifesize fibreglass model of Denis Thatcher up their rectums until they see sense.
12 - Get off PB and hit the pub!
16. An interesting point. The basket of goods that is used to weight CPI etc are only changed infrequently, but we know that car purchases are down probably 25%ish and other manufactured goods are also down a great deal - so the falls in these goods isnt helping. But some of the falls are very real - mortgage payments in RPI for example.
16 - I think of all the tractor stats Gordon Brown quotes, I think it’s the low inflation one that does him the most damage (more than no more boom and bust.) Simply because practically everyone i know keeps on complaing about the rising costs of the essential things.
9 Contd point on public sector.
IPSOS/Mori clearly judged that a significant difference in voting pattern had emerged between the public and private sector. This had inflated their polls for Labour in London.
As we go forward are we seeing the public sector votes sticking with Lab/LDs whilst the private sector shift further into supporting the Conservatives?
If this is the case then IPSOS/Mori’s weighting could make them more accurate than other pollsters and would be a reward for the review they undertook last year.
I can see Brown’s eyesight taking a sudden turn for the worse after Labour get a battering in the Local/Euro elections.
Johnson or Harman to take over, election May 2010
The only place I read about pressures mounting on Gordon Brown’s position is here. I appreciate you try and be ahead of the game, but are you sure you have got this right?
Labour damaged themselves by allowing leadership speculation to build up last summer, the party’s spinners surely realise this. Now that Mandelson is back on baord, there is much less chance of key people breaking ranks, like we began to see last time. Brown’s detractors had their chance to claim his scalp, and missed it. The closer we get to the next GE the more secure Brown becomes.
if the Conservatives hit 50% and Labour dropped another 2 pts, Labour would be left with 139 MP’s according to EC.
It seems reasonably clear that Labour’s core (or payroll, or client) vote is holding up.
Above that 23 to 24% base, Labour’s additional support has come from floating lefties and from true floating voters.
The lefties are oscillating between abstaining altogether versus supporting Clegg; the others are oscillating between abstaining and supporting Cameron. The more exposure Cameron gets, the more they fall into the latter camp.
Mike Smithson has postulated the idea that the more Cameron is in the public eye, the better the Tories poll. I wonder, given the scale of disillusionment with MacSporran (Mike, am I OK with that? ;->), if we are not also seeing an effect whereby Broon being in the news has the same effect.
If so, this gives the Tories double bang for the buck. If Cameron’s on TV a lot his vote goes up; if he’s not, but Broon is, Cameron’s support goes up.
I’m a bit mystified by the adulation of Cable. He seems a solid and plain speaking sort of bloke who’s not afraid to admit when he’s c0cked stuff up, which is the hallmark of a decent colleague in industry IME. But he no more knows what to do next than anyone else.
[18] - That’s the ICM for the Guardian…
Was the Ipsos Mori poll a telephone poll? Looking at the monthly polling since 2003 the Tories seem to improve their performance in the face to face poll that follows a phone poll.
“I’ll be able to visit all the party’s supporters personally, and continuously shove a lifesize fibreglass model of Denis Thatcher up their rectums until they see sense.”
Settle for ID cards with rough edges, inserted sideways. The cards could also incorporate a Christmas card-style sound chip barking out random authoritarian soundbites from NuLab MPs.
24. Er, yes, you only read about Labour leadership speculation here and… erm… oh yes, in the Guardian. The in house magazine of New Labour. And the Observer of course. Oh yes, and the Independent.
Twat.
8 - It’d be a downright dangerous place to be a fly on the wall, with all those phones flying around…
Totally off topic re Dr John Reid..
http://mreugenides.blogspot.com/2009/02/red-white-and-blue-dawn-primarolo.html
24 Different Duncan.
” The only place I read about pressures mounting on Gordon Brown’s position is here. ”
Are the newspaper boys on strike in your neck of the woods?
There have been quite a few articles in the newspapers recently calling for Brown to go and reporting mounting pressure on his position.
Just flipped over to Labourlist to see if Dolly had anything on the poll. I started reading Massive Tory.. and I though surely not….., but it turned out to be a story about “massive pork pies”.
8. MTF - “the bunker would be an interesting place to be a fly on the wall.”
A very squished fly. Mobile ahoy!
19 - bewildering as it might seem there are lots of special interest groups who have reason to thank Labour and will continue to support them.
Take a trip to pinknews.com and you will find in the comments section many examples of gay men who despite all the evidence of sleaze and corruption are determined to overlook the utter incompetence of the Labour party on the strength of their committment to “equality” type legislation.
Blinkered and naive but there you go.
MORI top line I don’t really credit. There is no track record unlike ICM and YouGov.
Butt the MORI sub-questions are longer term and the trend is interesting.
Watching Sky it I thought OGlaza said they show Brown is not less popular than the government. If it is confirmed the idea Mike S put forward in the last thread would not be supported by this poll at least: ” the feeling is much more anti-Brown than anti-Labour. If Brown went then the political situation could be transformed.”
But is this what the details show?
31/35 - Snap!
anecdote alert -
Whilst having a cig outside a pub in the early hours of sunday morning had a bit of a politics chat. a guy i just met couldn’t believe i was a tory. he thought that was a disgusting thing and was shocked! I said “fair enough” but asked him who he voted for bearing in mind Labour have f*cked the country. he said Greens.
I am sure he normally votes Labour, he is northern, hates the tories passionately but I am not sure his anti-tory vote is going to Labour anymore. I think that this happening a lot round teh country and Labour have a problem as they are potentially haemorraging votes.
24 “The only place I read about pressures mounting on Gordon Brown’s position is here. I appreciate you try and be ahead of the game, but are you sure you have got this right?”
I don’t think anyone who posts here authored yesterday’s piece in the Sun…for example.
There is a 20% Tory lead in the polls. Things will get worse for Labour - and on unemployment, much worse - on economic indicators over the coming months. MP’s are on half term. They have mobile phones. They will be chatting to each other.
If you were Gordon, how secure would you be feeling, Party Rulebook or not?
11. Aha! Fleet of Worlds is more fleet of foot than my good self.
This will increase speculation about the Labour leadership but although there is evidence of splits in the cabinet it all seems to me to be positioning for after the Election. I think most of the cabinet recognises that the next election is likely to be a Labour defeat and they don;t want their hands dirtied by it. It wouldn;t be in any of the candidate’s interests to lead the party to defeat (and possibly a very heavy defeat): much better in their thinking to let Mr Brown take the rap and for them to take the credit for “saving” the Labour Party.
This is classic Conservatives 1995-7. No major figure wanted to challenege Major in 1995 because they were all positioning for post-1997 without realising that the Tory defeat was going to be huge and lasting. The same will happen to Labour. We can argue that it is in Labour’s best interests to ditch the PM now and hold a seat-saving defeat election but which leadership candidate wants to have that on their CV or tell labour backbench MPs “sorry guys and girls but some of you have to go to save the party?”. When it comes down to it, politicians are selfish beings who look out for number 1.
40 - Oh yeah, three of us at it…
Great minds…
15 Stuart Dickson. A singularly ill-timed bit of triumphalism. This poll surely shows the SNP down to their core vote.
41
Your second paragraph gives the reason why Labour needs to act quickly.
How many proposing to challenge for the leadership will be in Parliament after the next GE?
That they are going down to a defeat is almost certain, but are there any ‘old men in a hurry’ who are willing to ameliorate the size of the defeat (and take the pension)?
30. It is nowhere near at the level of before, surely you must admit. A few disillusioned Labour folk have a problem with him, but no-one of any significance is mounting any real threat to Brown. It was the political story of the summer, with Milliband throwing down a thinly veiled gauntlet and a minister quitting. If he can survive that, how on Earth can he be toppled now that an election is closer and there are severe economic problems hogging the headlines?
This is it now. The floodgates of anti-Brown sentiment are open and will wash him away.
What will Miliband, Purnell and the younger people we’ve never heard of be thinking as they contemplate the best years of their careers in opposition? The Tories had 4 terms, Labour will have had 3, so who’s to say Cameron and possibly successors won’t have 3 or 4?
If I were them, I hope I’d do something now and try to have one parliament in power, rather than spend the rest of my career regretting it until I was 60 and it was all too late.
Apologies, that should have been aimed at 40 not 30.
I was reading the other thread and I remembered an old article. The article basically says that the dangerous moment for Brown would be the day after the election in June, because Lab could “lose its head” and try to oust Brown.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/tim_hames/article3957866.ece
49
That was 46 O/C.
(going radio rental ‘ere - bloody hell!)
23
That’s what’s so awful about Labour getting so much of their funding from public sector unions. They become a public sector trade union themselves, putting the interests of public sector workers, ahead of the the interest of the British people, or the nation.
The snippets of Mr Cameron’s Total Politics interview released by Mr Dale suggest he’s not going to press ahead with the £50,000 limit on political donations (he says it would require a degree of public money, which isn’t politically do-able). I think that’s a shame. Breaking the public sector unions hold over Labour would be good for the country, in my opinion.
Comparing the questions used by the main polling organisations, it appears (or could be a complete coincidence!) that the mentioning of the Lib dems within the voting question may explan the lib dem boost. Maybe its the case that people needed reminding that there is another option other than tory or labour!!! This could be important come the GE as theyll be given plenty of air time.
Mori: How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? (48, 28, 17)
Yougov: If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? (44, 32, 14)
Populus: If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? (42, 28, 18)
ICM: The Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other parties would fight a new election in your area.
If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for? (40, 28, 22)
Comres: If there were a general election tomorrow, would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or some other party? (41, 25, 22)
40. Labour may have endeared themselves to the Gay community, but on the other hand, they have enraged the S&M community by making several hundred thousand of their number, potential criminals for the heinous crime of posessing photographs of consensual sexual activities between adults.
At least Martin Salter, the author of this odious piece of legislation, won’t be around after the next election.
is the polling news on Labourlist yet?
When will you halfwits learn to append a name when replying to a specific post ?
1.It is very rude not to append a name……you all do it !
2.Unless it is business,I make it a point of honour never to reply to a post that doesn’t append my name.
3. It makes you look stupid and never more so than when you reply to yourself.
“Disastrous poll for Tories — *still* not as ahead as they were last summer”
Looks like Frank Field is going to go to the top of Gordon Brown’s christmas card list.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3364346/is-field-gearing-up-for-a-budgettime-rebellion.thtml
50 - Simple, really. There are ever so many Labour MPs whose seat should be beyond loss but who are seeing their chances of re-election diminishing by the day. For this, they see Gordon’s personal unpopularity as one factor that they might be able to change. Sure, it’s desperate. Sure, it probably won’t work but what the hell else are they going to do?
At least it would show the Labour party still has a tiny, tiny glimmer of respect for the electorate to be able to stand up and say “Sorry. We were all taken in by Brown’s bullsh*t too. We didn’t mean to make such a complete hash of the job and we will try to make a start on setting us on a better course so that you might just, maybe, be willing to come back to us next time after you’ve given the Tories a chance to clear up after us.”
58. No just an article saying that a Tory government will ensure that there are massive pork pies for every dinner table, or something like that.
Oh Dear , Nick Clegg has made another gaffe..
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/rosa_prince/blog/2009/02/17/nick_cleggs_latest_gaffe
49. I don;t see any “old men in a hurry” wanting to take the crown. Would Straw or Johnson really want to be Pm for just a few weeks or months and go down as the man who led Labour to a crushing defeat? And what would be the situation after the GE? Would the incumbent wish to stay on and try and put things back together and what would the young Turks say about that? What is harriet Harman’s role in all this? She has incumbency as deputy leader and I cant see her standing aside for a unity candidate before the GE and if she tries for the leadership then others will too creating a total mess in the middle of an economic crisis.
64 - MTF - could it be Rosa doing a bit of “Poll, what poll? QUICK! LOOK OVER THERE”…?
40 i think that Labour bias with gays is a lot less prevalent than it was. amongst my friends, many are gay tories. they can see the party has changed.
66
57 - And that’s a community one suspects it is ill-advised to enrage…
56 - Spot on.
66 completely . she’s a dyed in the wool Labour supporter.
13-Happy Birthday, Barry.
56 - Ryans, the thing is that giving the LibDems plenty of air time during an election will only show the following;
1) How vacuous and hopeless their policy positions are;
2) How they have managed for so long to be one thing to Northern voters and something else entirely to Southern voters - proof positive that they are only ever a protest vote against the two significant parties; and
3) How Clegg has one debating style and that’s the terrible, unattractive Mr Angry approach.
Expect that LibDem support figure to be closer to the 15% of the population who really don’t get what the whole thing is about rather than an election affecting number.
24:
Ken
Surely there is a crucial distinction between inflation rate and inflation/deflation per se. Comparing with 12 months previously, we will surely see much bigger falls in the CPI when the oil peak is 12 months before the figure. And with mortgage repayments, soon they will be flat, as interest rates can’t fall much further if at all.
The headline figure is being distroted by these relatively short term effects, which are peripheral to the great deflaition/inflation debate surely?
As others have pointed out, and with a weak pound, the prices of many staple goods is manifestly NOT falling or anything like.
57. Morus
Has Dolly bitten the dust?
http://dizzythinks.net/2009/02/draper-politely-fired-as-labour-list.html
62. Well put. But this “Labour Apology Leadership Change Approach” will only work if they go pretty much straight to a general election.
You can’t be all humble and remorseful - and then just arrogantly ignore the people and force another unelected leader on them. Defeats the object. In fact it makes things worse.
This was the dilemma Labour faced last September. Kick out Brown and you will save seats, but you will still lose and you will reduce your time in office (and lose those lovely perks) by going to the people early.
Its perks versus seats. Expenses versus an electoral future. A bird in the hand and two dead birds in your soup versus no birds at all. Or, er, something.
Anyway they’re screwed. Heh.
64 the Rosa bit about Clegg is not important now but as a quote for an election leaflet along with his detailed knowledge about pensions and his thirty conquests it is wonderful.
Does he only open his mouth to change feet?
64 Get Clarkson to stand for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam. Then Clegg can stay at home to reinvent himself - as something other than a complete prat.
Hmm. 28% would vote Labour.
Hang on. That means there are well over 10 million free-thinking adults in this country who *actually think* Labour is the best option.
Eh? :-S
What does the man have to do to actually lose their support?
Lock them up without charge? Start an illegal war? Stamp on their rights? Deny them a vote? Increase tax on the poorest? Bankrupt the country? Annihilate their pensions? Destroy their savings? Destroy their jobs?
Oh… wait a minute..
75. how could they think about getting rid of dolly? he’s so smart…
i mean three months ago he was saying this - move over nostradamus
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/dec/16/labour-poll-guardian-icm-cameron-brown
73. Jon C. The year-on-year inflation rate is a way to put everything in context. There is an index of prices that fluctuates month by month. Why do we quote the year-on-year figures - because it’s easy, has meaning, statistically it helps to remove a lot of seasonal effects. You can look at it on the month, or on the quarter or on two years ago. We tend to define inflation or deflation on the basis of the year-on-year changes. We tend not call things inflation or deflation on month-on-month numbers since we would get regular bouts of deflation or inflation every year.
76 - True, Sean. Screwed is what they are. The only problem is they appear to be set on bugge*ing the rest of us for a while first.
It’s a matter of numbers, I think. There are those who KNOW they are going next time. The likes of the Right Honourable member for Redditch, for example, whose efforts to feather her own nest know no bounds.
On the other hand, there are those who really should be in the House until they die (or retire - after all, they’re Labour MPs an so brain dead to begin with) and who see a totally unexpected electoral loss due to the current state of the party and country. They will surely see longer term that they gain by doing anything which might give them a chance of NOT losing their seat personally.
Once we hit the tipping point where there are more of them than there are J Smiths then Gordon is a goner.
81
Isnt there a table somewhere for inflation according to ABC1 C2 DE?? or something akin to it
78. Clarkson = Hero
Boris Mach II for the Tories.
Get that man a seat.
80 coops on Dolly - “move over nostradamus”.
From Dolly’s Guardian article:
“Cameron is proving himself a poor strategist. …Take yesterday. He attacked City bonuses, and called for bankers who broke the rules to be hounded and prosecuted.” 16th December 2008
I think you’ll find that it’s Cameron = Nostrodamus!!
48. URW - “This poll surely shows the SNP down to their core vote.”
Huh? Don’t follow your logic there.
Others at 7%. But we do not know if that means the SNP are at 1%, 2%, 3% or 4% (0%, 5%, 6% and 7% are all extraordinarily unlikely).
Therefore, this could be a wonderful poll for the Scottish National Party, or a bloomin awful one, or (most likely) not very meaningful at all.
seanT they wouldn’t have to go straight to an election. If they did the defenestration of Brown would look like an overture to suicide.
A new leader would talk about the need to stabilise the ship and promise to call an election in xx months. Understand the need for a mandate…. but the critical period in saving the economy is at hand ….. not time for a major distraction of an election … understand what people think … give us a chance to do the right thing.
And the British voters would fall for that last one. Be fair, give them a chance.
Mind you, if they dallied too long that goodwill would evaporate. Probably a matter of a month or two to announce the election.
But with careful planning - and waffling about avoiding holidays and resultant disenfranchising people, the need for legislation to be completed, plans to be implemented - that could give the new PM perhaps three to four months in office to spin the regret, remorse while CampMandy implements the new plan with a media which is, after all, anti-Tory if not pro-Labour.
80. Indeed the problem for Labour is that whenever they trundle out one of their tiresome trolls (Maguire is another one) to do this I suspect people hear or read the first few words, realise they are a typical nasty Labour spin troll and just switch off.
They can’t get away with it anymore.
79 - see my post at 40.
Single issues like this provide a very convenient veil to draw over the many faults of this government.
I have a handful of gay friends of my age who will still look at me in disbelief when I say I will vote Tory and then ask “What about clause 28?”.
My answer is that that was 20 years ago, get over it, but that one piece of legislation will allow many, many others to ignore every bit of Labour sleaze and give them their vote.
I suspect some similar political get out of jail card exists in a lot of minority communities.
URW, please see Anthony Well’s recent piece on the “Others” vote:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1889
OT
The economy and Gordon’s Polling.
Last time Labour was this low in the polls was September 2008. The FTSE100 bottomed 27th October. Gold peaked 10th October (temporarily)
I expect the FTSE to bottom this week .. Gold is close to its July 2008 highs of $973
. Will Labour’s ratings improve this time? Dunno But the coincidences are large.
I’ve sold most of my gold and silver shares for c 30%+ in under a month…and am about to go long the market - some time this week..
[79] - It’s a measure of how much some people hate the Tories that they would still rather vote for Gordon Brown than the Tory party.
87. It is possible but extremely difficult and it relies massively on there not being a leadership contest. If Gordon Brown is defenestrated then Harriet Harman will go for the premiership: it’s clear she is already on manoeurves. A significant portion of Labour MPs and cabinet ministers would have Harriet over their dead bodies and would put up someone against them. This means Labour fighting over the leadership when the country is going down the tubes. Labour made their choice in September: it’s Brown until the election.
Frank Field apears to be sole vertebrate in the Labour party.
Simon Mayo (R5L) has just hit some female Labour Minister with the polls. They will do whatever is necessary and Conservatives will do nothing. Complete tin ear. The Lib Dem who followed said she sounded like a speak your weight machine.
Tlzz you will find a lot of people like that on both sides of the fence. How else do you explain poll improvements under IDS?
He is a good bloke but a really crap leader and couldn’t wait to make the next mistake, yet lots of the Tory core became even more loyal the more mess he got himself into.
Interesting listening to one of the Sky adverts.
It starts off with Blair saying:
‘We campaigned as new Labour and we will govern as New Labour’
The next voice is Obama saying something like:
‘But times have changed’
Subliminal communication on multiple levels?
[95] - Yes, and for similar reasons we often end up having a dialogue of the deaf on here.
Re The previous thread.
It should not be forgotten that Alan Johnson was the most popular Labour candidate in the most recent Luntz focus group, so clearly he has some appeal of benefit to Labour. In regards to comparisons between Brown and Cameron’s intelligence, clearly both are bright, but it should not be forgotten that Cameron has himself admitted his O Level results were not brilliant, while Brown got excellent grades at the age of 14. So in IQ terms I think Gordon edges it. However In emotional intelligence terms, Cameron is clearly streets ahead!
96. ‘We campaigned as new Labour and we will govern as New Labour’
Crikey. How desperately dated that phrase sounds now.
The story of this government: it’s like something from a Shakespeare tragedy. Universal hope to universal despair in thirteen years.
Wow.
The books about this putrid government will make jolly interesting reading when they are eventually published in 5 years time; once historians have proper time to think and reflect.
It’ll also be nice to sit in my warm cosy bed on a saturdays winters morning - reading about it *in the past* - and just serenely shaking my head and being glad it’s over, rather than worrying about them actually being in charge.
Happy days.
94 Peter Mc (in deference to URW : halfwit huh! I’ll have you know I’m nowhere near a halfwit)
“female Labour Minister”
That was Rosie Winterton ‘in gramaphone mode’.
Ominous words from Janet Daley:
“..there is a terrible lesson from the Major experience: a party that remains in power under a grossly unpopular leader can stagger on long enough to become not just discredited but utterly loathed. The longer a failing prime minister defies gravity and clings to office, the more likely his party is to become hated with a visceral intensity that can keep it in the wilderness for a political generation.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/janet_daley/blog/2009/02/17/like_john_major_before_him_gordon_brown_clings_on_
Rosie Winterton on R5 now in ‘double-waffle mode’ trying to get sharp with Mayo
An entertaining piece from the venerable Archbishop Cranmer:
http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.com/2009/02/how-labour-could-easily-win-next.html
Andrew S I don’t really disagree with any of what you say, I was talking in respect of seanT’s post.
There are many uncertainties in this but one thing I am sure about. If the major figures in the Labour party want to make a change a way will be found.
The reason against any change being made is the lack of will and focus, and that shows in government behaviour. They are punch drunk, out of ideas, enervated by despair or frustration or fatalism.
I am less convinced there is anyone suitable to replace Brown in terms of getting us out of the mess he has brought upon us. But on the other hand, as a party person, I would look for someone innocuous to be a stand-in leader to save some of our bacon at a quick election. Rather a Howard role.
Harperson would need to be dealt with, but that is not impossible either.
I have disliked and opposed the Labour party ethos for many years, but I still do not want them to be too weakened as there must be a viable opposition after the election which the LibDems are no more able to provide than now than they ever have been.
Where are TIM and CARL?
104. No doubt on recess with Gabble and Wage Slave
89 Vulpus_rex that is a very interesting point.
The GE in 2001 was more difficult for the Tory party than 1997 in the sense that in ‘97 we could still play on residual fears from the 1970’s about “not letting Labour in to ruin things” and how Labour would “show its true colours” etc. Having shown themselves relatively moderate in their first time, this option vanished- we did well not to lose more seats in 2001 than in 97.
I honestly believe that if Cameron can govern as a moderate, kindly, inclusive Conservative in his first term he can undo a lot of the residual anti-Tory feeling in some groups/areas that lingers from the 1980’s. It is one of the reasons I think the Tories will increase their majority in the GE after next.
104 - In the bunker discussing strategy and spin (and dodging mobiles phones)
In 1950, after Labour scraped a narrow majority, there was a mood among many senior Labour figures to demand an immediate General Election and using the threat of repeated elections until the country voted a Labour government back into office with a secure majority.
A sort of ‘now look what you’ve done. Nearly let the wicked Tories back in. Now get out there and vote properly until we have a proper majority’.
The King’s Principal Private Secretary, Sir Alan Lascelles, wrote a memo informing Atlee that the King would not grant an immediate dissolution and that he better manage with the majority he had, at least for the interim.
Now is the time for the Queen’s PPS to write another memo informing Brown et al that should he resign and be replaced, with or without an internal Labour leadership election, that she would immediately dissolve Parliament for an immediate General Election.
Fascinating comment by “Neil” over at Anthony Well’s Ipsos-MORI thread. Could this possibly be the same “Neil” who vigorously defended the Scottish Labour Party when the Glenrothes marked register conveniently “disappeared”? That pb.com thread was littered with Draper-bots, but Neil’s comments were also highly prominent on the Labour apologist side. Turns out the chap is a (rather pessimistic) Scottish Tory!!
- “In Scotland I think we will struggle to win 5 seats, so there is a lot still to do.”
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1915#comment-550012
Mmmm… Unionists of a feather flock together…
Is Gord waiting for the %’s to hit 100% ??
Press Assocation
The data shows almost two thirds (64%) are dissatisfied with Mr Brown’s performance, up from 59% last month, and overall dissatisfaction with the Government increased from 65% to 70%.
93 I was about to post the same comment for the same reason. I don’t see how they can avoid a contest. Harriet won’t stand aside and I can’t see them lining up to support her. Brown had to wave some pretty big sticks and cash in years of manipulation to ensure noone else obtained sufficient nominations to challenge him. I can’t see anyone having that kind of pull over the party now. Mandelson’s power over them is not what it was. Indded his endorsement could send some of them the other way.
A contest in the current climate would look very selfish. And there is no guarantee it would be well behaved. Indeed I suspect it would require great discipline and I am not sure they have it anymore. The media would read it as proof positive of a failed Brown premiership and would be on the hunt for stories of division Remember when it was assumed they couldn’t do worse than kick out Blair?
108 - “Now is the time for the Queen’s PPS to write another memo informing Brown et al that should he resign and be replaced, with or without an internal Labour leadership election, that she would immediately dissolve Parliament for an immediate General Election.”
WHY??!! What reason under a modern democracy has the Queen in getting involved? None.
You don’t like Brown, we’ll take that as read, but no need to spark a constitutional crisis.
110 that is the statistic I heard which contradicts the idea that Brown is more unpopular than the government. So if he went would that help?
Probably because any change allows the Labour party to claim it is listening and cares.
113 would be great though if HMQ told him she’d had enough. to be a fly on the wall.
radio 5 and simon mayo doing they anti tory rant,guest from labour and the lib dims with no tory spokesperson ,how do radio 5 get away with they anti tory bias,my god,the lib dims are in my view a minority party and get to much coverage from the bbc.
110 So the Labour Govt is more discredited than Gordon himself.
Is that the Scots Labour Glenrothes-type sticking up for their own?
I am not sure what ousting Gordon would do for Labour in Scotland? They might take it badly in some parts.
Tory Overall Majority
Last price matched on betfair: 1.57 –> i.e 63,69% chances
93, 111 Sally C - Yes, I was saying much the same thing on the last thread. One of the big difficulties is that if they press the ‘Eject Gordon’ button they need to be 100% sure of who is going to end up in the pilot’s seat. (’They’ in the context is the Cabinet, or at least the prime movers therein.) And that is unpredictable unless they have everything fully stitched up in advance - with all players fully squared off and signed up to the new consensus. And that, in turn, is very hard to do without divisions being fully exposed in the media, and without the plotting being obvious to Brown, who has a track record of clobbering dissenters.
Executive summary: They’re stuffed either way.
Slumdog Millionaire…
… has reached a Last price matched of 1.15 on betfair –> i.e. 86,96% chances of winning Best Picture!!!
112. One of the stories around the Thatcher resignation was that her decision came after the weekly audience with the Queen. No one will likely ever know what was said but the Monarch does still have a say in matters. We are all still nominally her ’subjects’.
I imagine if the Queen said ‘Gord we are not amused with what is happening. You need to get a mandate’. He would have to listen.
Sporting Index prices: Conservatives: 352-358, Labour: 222-228, Lib Dems 44-47
Is this a new Conservative high and a new Labour low?
The HBOS fiasco just won’t go away.
As I mentioned previously it will hasten Gord’s downfall
And it’s Goodbye from Gord & Alistair
Edit: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7892079.stm
Antony Smith, former manager of regulatory developments and group policy at HBOS has contacted the BBC, apparently to back up Moore’s story. Interesting to see what he has to say about Moore’s replacement:
QUOTE (BBC)
Mr Smith, who contacted the BBC News website, described an occasion when Jo Dawson was asked to speak at a dinner attended by FSA chief executive John Tiner and other senior regulators.
“She didn’t want to look foolish at that meeting, obviously, so I was asked to prepare a four page bullet-point summary of regulation for her,” he said. Mr Smith received an e-mail thanking him for the note, saying that Ms Dawson, “found it very easy to understand and didn’t need any extra explanations”.
“I thought it was a little bit strange for somebody in that position, to be on the board advising them about risk who has no knowledge at all about risk and regulation,” Mr Smith said
Re Alan Johnson on last thread.
Will this exchange on Desert Island Discs in October 2007 come back to haunt him and make people wonder whether he’s the man?
“I don’t think I would have been good enough, frankly.
“I don’t think I’ve got the capabilities. You get to a level and look around and think ‘Perhaps I could go to the next level’. I don’t think I could go to that level, which is the only level up from being a cabinet minister.”
Personally I rate him, but these comments could make it much harder for him.
Sally C Harman can be leant on. She didn’t win the deputy leadership that convincingly.
If the unions, key members of the PLP and key constituency bosses suggested they would campaign against her if she rocked the boat, and she believed it, then she would back down. To not do so would mean she would lose and be the hate figure for the whole party.
A look at the backroom manoeuvers when Howard became leader of the Tories give a good basic guide to how real politicos operate. And such people do still exist in the Labour party.
But whether the will is there, well that is the question.
112 Was it the Queen who crystalised Maggie’s thoughts or Frank Field and her St Bernard?
Anyway, the critical difference is that we can argue about WHO Maggie listened to - not IF she would listen at all?
According to Mike it would seems so:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/02/16/tory-spreads-move-back-to-the-previous-high/
Given these dreadful numbers for Labour, I’d say the only solution is for Mr. Draper to redouble his efforts to shut down opposing opinion in the blogosphere.
100. Am I right in thinking that Janet Daley believes the unpopularity of Major is what dragged the Tories down and into near oblivion?
Have some of these grassroots conservatives learnt nothing in the last 12 years?
Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) is on a Roll
Yeah baby! :
If the Dutch general elections were held today, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) would get 25 seats in parliament, according to the weekly poll of Maurice de Hond, two more than a week ago. The party current holds nine parliament seat.
Via : http://islamineurope.blogspot.com/2009/02/netherlands-pvv-second-in-polls.html
Netherlands’s source: “PVV in peiling naar 25 zetels”
http://www.telegraaf.nl/binnenland/3260708/__PVV_in_peiling_naar_25_zetels__.html?p=2,1
103. 111. I think Sally goes to the heart of the getting rid of Gordon Brown option: they can;t because they don’t know what to put in its place. Like all parties Labour is a coalition of interests but these interests are all pulling in different directions.
There are the ’special interests’ (feminists, gays, ethnic minorities etc.) led to some extent by Harriet Harman; there are the Guardianista greens led by Ed Miliband; Old Labour (Johnson); the authoritarians (Smith, Blunkett); and the Blairites (Mandelson, Purnell). None wants to compromise or see the other faction gain the leadership. Their eyes are already on the post-election fight not on saving Labour pre-election.
Afternoon all, blame Dolly Draper Labour fans, it’s all his fault!!! He is Gordon’s man on the net so let’s start a Blame Dolly campaign
Ilook forward to hearing either Hazel Blears or Baroness Bilgewater going on SKY TV to announce these latest poll figures are good for Labour. I certainly think they are good for Labour but not for the same reason as those dear ladies.
104.
Sheepdip
Where are TIM and CARL?
I suspect a major change in strategy is being undertaken.
Even GB is not stupid. It’s clear Labour’s whole internet strategy is not working (see LabourList) and Tim’s comments are puerile are getting no traction.
time for a change..
The Dutch language reads like the English one with lots of typos:
Fantastisch nieuws!!!!!!! Op naar 40 zetels Geert.
130. I think that indicates the problems with a party becoming too big a tent. It is hard to see which of these factions is dominant and as a result they nullify each other. The result is that the Labour party has no coherent ethos, no clear direction and no clear identity.
It seems to me Labour are destined for years of manouvering and skirmishing until one becomes dominant and sets out a direction to go in.
132 i think you could be right. there’s a definite absence of Labour trolls on all blogs at the moment. conference in the bunker. expect shouts of “racist, bigoted tories” to get more shriller than ever once they return”. they’re that desperate now.
That claim of a Clegg gaffe is bullshit. They’ve completely misrepresented what he actually said.
The quotes:
“A savage recession, like a war, shakes the traditional identity of men and women. In the Second World War it had a liberating effect of sorts. By 1943 more than 7.25 million women were employed. They weren’t just in traditional ‘female’ jobs: by 1944, 40 per cent of the engineering workforce were women,” he said. “As this recession bears down on thousands of communities and families we must again be open to reinventing ourselves.”
“”Some of the biggest changes that still need to take place are in the traditional perceptions of ‘male’ work.”"
He’s arguing that men should be more prepared to take up jobs traditionally seen as ‘female’ type jobs.
Certainly not that crap about redundancy being a welcome opportunity for fathers that Rosa Princehas pulled out of her arse.
124 No doubt she feels she was leant on before and that didn’t get the party very far. What has she got to lose? She may only have only one more chance and she may feel she let the last one slip away.
I am not sure she is too bothered about being hated by some. Any attempt to stop a contest by bullying her could backfire. I could see Mcdonnell, Abbott, Field, Grogan and a few of the female MPs Hatty seems to have sway ojecting in principle and making things ugly.
Who says that very one will be against her? Unite has two bosses who can’t even agree with each other.
Howard was different. There was a sense that we were in a hopeless postion and needed to accept stability and respectabilty in opposition for a while. That is not the current Labour mindset. Some of those MPs haven’t lost their seats yet.
“A new Quinnipiac poll finds New York Gov. David Paterson trailing Atty. Gen. Andrew Cuomo by a 2-to-1 margin in a potential 2010 Democratic primary for governor. The survey is the latest evidence of the fallout from the Caroline Kennedy-for-Senate fiasco.”
Gov. Dem Primary
Cuomo 55%
Paterson 23%
Gov. General Election
Cuomo 51%
Giuliani 37%
Und 9
Paterson 43%
Giuliani 43%
Und 10%
To the elusive SSI: do you STILL think Paterson’s handling of the Senate appointment was brilliant and that he should be unchallenged in next year’s Democratic gubernatorial primary?
134. I think you are right. One of the key factors in Labour’s decline is that there is a strong sense that they have run out of ideas, run out of steam. For a while the economy was playing well with some voters for Labour but there remains the question of what is a Labour government for? if the only answer is “to stop there being a Tory government” then they can’t hold that line for very long.
112. Because, dear boy, a third Labour leader as PM in a single Parliament without a General Election would be an outrage.
Just as Lascelles told Attlee and Labour they couldn’t play fast and loose with the electorate by demanding an immediate re-run of the 1950 election, so the Queen is perfectly entitled, even under a modern democracy as you so tendentiously and piously put it, to say. ‘Enough. Now let the people speak.’
PB.com under attack
I do wish that this Draper guy won’t succeed in his brutal quest to destroy the British blogosphere by drying the precious revenues it is getting from publicity incomes, from its advertisers.
And I do second our Stars and Stripes graceful suggestion to protest with “torchlight lynching party, a deportation, or any similar measures”.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/02/16/is-this-man-trying-to-destroy-uk-blogging/#comment-943030
108/112. IIRC, Lascelles did not warn Attlee directly, but wrote a pseudonymous letter to the Times, outlining the general principles upon which a dissolution might properly be refused. Those circumstances are rare enough, but are quite different to the theoretical power of the Monarch to insist on a dissolution. The last time this occurred was, I think, 1784, and most scholars including Vernon Bogdanor believe this power has now fallen into desuetude, except perhaps in the extreme case where a government had lost a vote of confidence but was refusing to seek a dissolution…
Once again the Wells thesis proved correct….
140. “Because, dear boy, a third Labour leader as PM in a single Parliament without a General Election would be an outrage…”
Baldwin, Chamberlain, Churchill 1935-40
Outrageous.
Please stop posting condescending drivel. It doesn’t work on PB.C
re 40 Blinkered and naive - and plain wrong. If you want equality then vote LD
Corporeal:
Why should men want female type jobs? Quite frankly we’ve already had enough of the politically crass Labour Party interfering too much in the way society is allowed to develop.
We don’t need a pinhead from another poltically crass party reproducing this drivel for his own expedience. If he wants to get any credibility, let him come up with plans that can allow men to do the jobs that they are best suited too! I’m really getting sick of this over-intellectuallised sociological manipulation crap!
Our “elusive” Sea Shanty Irish…
… made me laugh a few days ago when he posted two relatively lengthy comments about one hour AFTER the last post on a dead thread — whereas the Jerusalem Electoral Tread written by Double Carpet was unfolding furiously.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/02/15/is-john-rentoul-right/#comment-941574
124. As I think our host has said, no one has made money betting against Harriet Harman. I used to be very dismissive of her and am less so now. As far as she is concerned she is in a perfect position. She is not a minister, only deputy leader of Labour and Leader of the House, so can to an extent wash her hands of the TB-GB years. She is clearly on manoeuvres and, as Sally says, I can;t see her opponents coming up with a unity candidate to force her to back down. If Mr Brown goes, Harman will stand for leader, indeed she will be leader under Labour rules until they chose another.
There are plenty of Labour MPs and union bosses who can’t stomach this scenario so they will stand rather than see everything fall into Harriet’s lap. If Harman gets the job pre-election she will keep it until the next election and there are plenty of young Turks and old hands who don;t wanrt that.
re 55 keep deluding yourself that the public sector votes Labour en bloc. It might lose you a lot of money.
136 - indeed but then it was quoted in that well known liberal publication the Daily Torygraph so it must be true…
140
Geoff
You are quoting from a bygone era when Labour stuck to the unwritten rules of the British Constitution.
If HM tried to stop a new unelected Labour PM, can you imagine the Labour trolls..
“Lawfully elected Government foiled in democratic wish by unelected 80 year od.. etc etc”
Labour will do what they want as there are NO rules. And unwritten rules are for gentlemen.. and there are few of us left.
[142] - I think there’s a difference between the Monarch insisting on a dissolution, and privately passing on the opinion that a dissolution was a dignified alternative to what was otherwise becoming a sordid shambles.
It’s part of the difference between a written constitution, which follows clear rules, and an unwritten constitution which is more nuanced.
144. To be fair, Churchill led a coalition government not a Tory one so the scenario is different. Also circusmtances were rather different.
re 16/24 the weightings in the RPI/CPI are changed very February. The ONS will be publishing an article about this year’s changes next month.
152. Of course, if we had an elected Head Of State with real power Brown could be put into retirement very quickly.
David Starkey says we need a directly elected PM. I would go one step further and say we need a directly elected President. Nothing else will revive our democracy.
139. Indeed they are so busy deciding what they should be doing (too many cooks syndrome) they have nothing interesting or meaningful to say about themselves as a party. There is only one recourse come up with criticisms of their rivals and to be honest they don’t seem to be very inventive in that either.
re 104 sheepdip, they may of course have suffered collateral damage from the Nokia fallout whilst being programmed this morning.
153. We could have ten PMs in a single parliament. The number, in itself, is of absolutely no constitutional significance…
Mr Crosby. It is you who posts the condescending drivel. The ‘35-’40 example is no precedent for three PMs without an election since Churchill assumed the office as head of a coalition with elections suspended ‘until further notice’, because as you may have noticed there was a World War on at the time.
As for the nit-picking over the Lascelles memo and the letter to The Times, it makes no difference. The intention was to warn off Labour from attempting to ‘game the system’.
Now get back to your Holocaust revisionism. Oaf
BBC still not rerpoting the 20% Tory lead poll!
146. My main point was about Rosa Prince bullshitting.
“allow men to do jobs they are best suited to”. When do you plan on going back to the 1930s?
“I’m really getting sick of this over-intellectuallised sociological manipulation crap!”
I’ll try and put it in small words for you then. What job people are suited to is not necessarily (that means it doesn’t have to) depend on what is between their legs. Or is that still a little over-intellectualised (just the one l) for you?
150. Actually I noticed the Clegg gaffe this morning in the Times - it is quite an interesting article trying to get on the popular coatails of the Full Monty!
I can tell it was manufactured under good intensions but it is a gaffe all the same! No matter what the potential possibilities about spending more time with your family might mean, it is a bit insentive all the same. It does not quite rank with Je ne Regrette reign but it might be on a similar level “to a price worth paying”. This just reconfirms that Clegg has dreadful judgement!
Nevermind Clegg may well get to practice what he preachers on this poll when transposed to Sheffield Hallam!
Sheffield Hallam
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP Nick Clegg (LIB) Electorate 68,573 Turnout 0.00%
2005 Votes 2005 Share User Prediction
LIB 20,463 45.88% 39.39%
CON 13,499 30.27% 45.87%
LAB 8,414 18.87% 10.66%
OTH 2,162 4.85% 3.95%
MIN 61 0.14% 0.14%
LIB Majority 6,964 15.61% Pred Maj 6.47% YELLOW TAXI TIME!
re 161. How many Tory council seats are there in Hallam Martin?
How many LD ones?
The answer is 15 - NIL.
What does that say about the organisations of the respective parties?
161. See above Martin, what Rosa Prince is claiming and what he actually said is completely different.
155 FB
Utter rubbish. Why would an elected head of state, chosen by the masses, necessarily get rid of Brown? If that was our system, we’d probably currently have one T Blair residing in Buckingham Palace. Is that what you’d want??
Tessa Jowell’s husband has been found guilty and sentenced to 4.5 years!
158 - I agree with this statement. The crucial words are “in itself”.
When Tony Blair was re-elected in 2005, it was on a promise that someone new, in all probability Gordon Brown, would take over in due course during that Parliament. Indeed, the Conservatives road-tested “vote Blair get Brown” as an election slogan until they found that Gordon Brown was more popular than Tony Blair at that time. It was therefore understood that there would be a change of direction during the Parliament.
What voters would not have bargained for was that there would be not one but two changes of direction during the Parliament. A Prime Minister would have no mandate to do anything other than tinkering at the edges. Since the country needs a lot more than tinkering at present, I don’t see how calls for an election in fairly short order could be resisted.
162.
But the electoral calcus is rigged in favour of the LD’s incumbancy! Surely the LD’s will be going after Labour target seats not defending the Leader! 
If they have to spend all their resources defending the Leader they have a problem! 
141
‘PB.com under attack’
Philippe,if your unhappy then call Mr Draper and ask him for an explanation,his direct office number is 0207 486 2400 or mobile 07813 137130.
Don’t sit in silence.
147- Isn’t SSI a “she”? If not, my mistake…
SSI is certainly a creature of the night, though!
Are the American People Mad?
According to the lastest Rasmussen Poll, 53% believe the Stimulus Plan will have little impact or that it will hurt the economy!!!
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 29% believe the plan will hurt and 24% believe it will have little impact.
And “58% of U.S. voters predicted several days earlier that most members of Congress will not understand what is in the plan before they vote on it.”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/economic_stimulus_package/38_say_stimulus_plan_will_help_economy
I guess the people need to be more educated; they just don’t understand yet how great Obama, the Democratic Congress and their Plans are for the economy!
155 ‘I would go one step further and say we need a directly elected President. Nothing else will revive our democracy.’
Frank, as an example would the election of oh, say President Blair really help to revive democracy in the UK?
163. I read it this morning - I thought it was just me being over sensitive and so i didn’t mention it as it can cause problems. A gaffe is a gaffe - If Cameron had done something like that or Brown you would be in full outrage mode.
As i say i hope Clegg gets beaten in Sheffield Hallam as he can practice what he preaches!
165 Simon, do you know if they are still separated? I think some form of split was engineered just after charges were laid. pre-emptive damage limitation, perhaps.
166. Actually there wasn’t that promise at all. Blair had repeatedly said he would serve a full third term. It was media speculators and party sources who made it clear Brown was readying his troops to take over at some point in the parliament.
160. Duh thank for your simple explanation. I understand now.
However, that is not quite what Clegg is saying and his comparison is disingenuous.
Firstly he is not saying we have a choice, he is suggesting that we do not have a choice. He is also using the argument that it should be done because of the war situation. However the two scenarios are not comparable.
During the war it was necessary for women to carry out those jobs because there were insufficient men to undertake the work. The number of jobs exceeded the male workforce. A large proportion of the male workforce was overseas fighting for this country.
However in todays scenario there are not enough of jobs to go around. In part because of the massive influx of foreign labour which the Libdems have consistently fully supported.
So it is little more than Clegg covering his parties ridiculous open door policies.
Furthermore given the social restrictions on men taking many female dominated roles these days it’s a particularly spurious argument.
149
That’s not what I said.
166
antifrank
A nice theoretical reply.
But in the real world, Labour could change PM every week and the electorate do nothing.
In fact that would solve the problem - a revolving PMship…
162. Which gives the Tories ample opportunity to do a bit of LibDemmery - and use the council record against the incumbent MP.
It’s all part of a VERY cunning plan…..
169 — Maybe SSI is female, yet I always had the feeling the voice behind the elegant prose was male; but then, I thought that UK.Paul was a young girl!
169, 179 I think SSI is a Creature of the Night by virtue of the fact that he lives on the Eastern Seaboard of the USA. it’s the time difference.
“Orchard Park police are investigating a particularly gruesome killing, the beheading of a woman, after her husband — an influential member of the local Muslim community — reported her death to police Thursday. Police identified the victim as Aasiya Z. Hassan, 37. Detectives have charged her husband, Muzzammil Hassan, 44, with second-degree murder… Muzzammil Hassan is the founder and chief executive officer of Bridges TV, which he launched in 2004, amid hopes that it would help portray Muslims in a more positive light.”
http://www.buffalonews.com/437/story/578644.html
174 - Tony Blair said that he would not be fighting a fourth term. By definition that meant he would be handing over to someone else during the term. It is true that he also said that he would be serving a full term, but the two were inconsistent and it was well understood in advance that Tony Blair would step down at some point during the Parliament. Indeed, David Cameron’s entire strategy as leader of the Opposition from day one, widely touted in the papers, was to prepare himself to be Gordon Brown’s opponent.
Will anyone give me odds of 2/1 against Labour winning fewer than 200 seats at the next GE. I’m looking to place a bet or bets of up to £50 to win £100. First come, first served, UK residents only, available until midnight tonight.
148 Harriet Harman may appeal to Labour party activists, but I can’t see her appealing to any significant section of the electorate.
On Draper - my last word [probably]. Do what I do. Don’t go. Don’t give it credibilty. Don’t add to the ratings. Ignore. Where relevant you will hear about any important issues [eg Messagespace] from other, better sites.
Guido should publish anything he has on Draper but shuld ignore his replies comments, save when they are hilarious and posted for the amusement of the world.
171. Who’s to say who it would be? I’m sure there would be plenty of candidates - be it Blair, Harman, Clegg, Cable, Cameron, Clarke, Farage - whoever, just like in the USA.
P184 If she is LP leader - PtP wil finally fall into our clutches..[ha..ha..ha!]
159: BBC don’t report on Opinion polls. Unless of course, they’re good for Labour.
A few more polls like this and Gordon Brown is either toast or a dead man walking in the Labour Party. He already is as far as the rest of the Country is concerned.
184
Sean
So?
Since when have Labour worried about appealing to the electorate ? They did not when appointing GB.
Why change.
HH would be a wonderful leader. (Are you reading this Tim?). I would vote for here to be leader. I think she would increase recruitment of new members greatly. I would say she is grossly underestimated. Her effect on voters would be noticeable.
Britain needs a leader like HH.
186 Imagine - President Harman or President Farage!!!
191 - Imagine President Blair, and him telling him Brown, in the name of God go….
I wonder if there are further political implications to David Mills conviction. For instance a donation to the Labour party by him? That could be very embarrasing indeed for Labour!
184. Harriet Harman is currently trying to sell herself on the Mumsnet website, portraying herself as a working mum wanting to hear from other mums on how the economic climate is affecting them.
Although some commentators are giving her a hard time (the issue of Jacqui Smith and her second home crops up more than once), others are more sympathetic.
Don’t underestimate the appeal of Harriet to a large section of the female voters.
170- I’m not sure what’s behind the numbers, but polling on the stimulus seems to vary wildly from poll to poll. I haven’t looked at it closely, but I would guess the variation is largely due to how the question is put to people. Anyway, I’d say it’s pretty clear that people have guarded hopes but also skepticism about the efficacy of the stimulus. I think the fact that Obama himself seems to have played such a backseat role in crafting and advancing the stimulus, with Pelosi and Reid in the driver’s seat, has diminished people’s confidence in the effort.
Off topic people have often commented how this LAbour government has paved the way for the return of Toffs (Eton educated) to the post of Primeminister. It looks like this is the only example. In the Gurdian today the post with the most positive responses on the House of Lords called for the the hereditaries to be reinstalled and the Blairite cronies to be kicked out. So Labour’s botched HoL reforms have led even Guardianistas to wistfully wish for a return to the past.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/17/parliamentary-reform-lords
[175] - “Furthermore given the social restrictions on men taking many female dominated roles these days it’s a particularly spurious argument.”
No, Clegg’s entire argument is that the present situation could be seen as an opportunity to break down the social restrictions on men taking female dominated roles, as he argues happened in reverse during WWII.
However, you are entirely right that the situation now is different to the War, since he is effectively arguing for men to push women out of work by taking their jobs. Nice Guy that Cleggy.
172. A gaffe is an error. Clegg said what he wanted to say, even if you disagree with it it isn’t a gaffe.
175. He’s talking about the post-war effect that more women entered what had been seen as traditionally male industries, and saying that a similar thing needs to happen with regards to men being more open to work in traditionally female industries.
He’s saying that the social restrictions you talk about should be broken down.
A flexible workforce is a better and more efficient workforce. Reducing that flexibility by restricting the available jobs in some industry based on whether someone dimples or dangles harms the economy.
186 - That’s not the point though - why would having one of those be better than the current system?
Your line of thought seems to be that the current load of politicians are crap, but that because the head of state has no power to get rid of them we should switch to an elected head of state with more power.
Problem is that all we’d end up with is a head of state with powers limited by his ability to get Parliament to agree with him. Which is effectively what we have now, except we call him the Prime Minister and he goes to the palace only to get advice and counsel from HM (which he is free to ignore), not to lord it over the rest of us as a president would.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
194. That was what Clegg was trying to do in that article but it came across as crassly insenitive! Clegg rally is crap!
What a champion gaffer I think i will update my Blogg!
When I was doing the Electoral Calcus poll i did notice that Vince Cable managed to stay on bu 0.5% so he could well be the new leader after the next election.
I would be more concerned at the thought of President Wogan or President Branson.
196. When an experiment fails many people tend to want to go back to what they know.
In this case the new Labour experiment is comparable to Frankenstein’s Monster.
184. Perhaps not Sean, but as Madasafish says, that doesn;t matter. it’s not the electorate that choose the next Labour leader but Labour activists. Tories were told for years that Ken Clarke appealed more to the electorate but he was rejected twice by MPs and once by activists.
I’m actually quite impressed by Harman, as leader of the House she is developing quite a nice line in self-deprecation. if she can tone down some of her rougher edges she might make a half decent leader of the Opposition. A sort of disapproving aunt to young inexperienced Mr Cameron.
183 PfP - I’d be happy to lay £50 on that. £100 to you if Labour end up with < 200 seats, £50 to me if they have 200 or more.
“I honestly believe that if Cameron can govern as a moderate, kindly, inclusive Conservative in his first term he can undo a lot of the residual anti-Tory feeling……
by Concanvasser February 17th, 2009 at 1:47 pm”
Ha, ha, ha, haar, guffaw! Kindly, inclusive? What about hectoring, arrogant, charmless toff with no new ideas at all about anything who is only there because of where he went to school? Plus chinless chum Osborne as chancellor. Give me a break!
Even if the Conservatives get elected, they will fail within a year because they haven’t a hope in hell of fulfilling any of the unco-ordinated ragbag of half-baked, uncosted proposals they have put forward. What about the state of public transport, decline in industry, unemployment, crime etc. all the problems they left us with in 1997 will be there to haunt them, plus they will split down the middle on Europe at the first whiff of a summit in Brussels.
“Brown hasn’t so much nationalised the banks, he has bank-ised the nation.”
–FRASER NELSON
instead of the taxpayers owning the banks, the banks now seem to own the taxpayers.
…
They have been given access to the present and future earnings of the British public, which will plug their mind-blowing losses.
…the government being so dependent on banking profits that it had a clear incentive not to ask too many questions about how this money was being generated. … The money was there, the government just took it. Bankers were almost deified, invited to do various reviews (NHS, skills, etc) and feted like the masters of the universe. Meanwhile the gulf between what they had and what they owed grew massively - until it swallowed up an entire government, as it is now in the process of doing.
… What’s happening with RBS, B&B, Northern Rock and, soon, Lloyds is what the bankers call a reverse takeover. The scale is mindblowing. RBS’s £2 trillion of liabilities dwarfs not only the government reserves but the entire UK economy.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3358846/the-banks-reverse-takeover-of-britain.thtml
Mike from the previous thread :
“It is for this reason that I am far from convinced that the Tories will get an overall majority.”
That being so, my generous offer in post 183 must look irresistible to you - I await your take up.
M. Magnan - “but then, I thought that UK.Paul was a young girl!”
Given your frequent posts bordering on purple prosed erotica I’m very grateful that there’s a very large ocean between us…
205 - But apart from that, you like him?
An Italian judge has just sentenced David Mills to four and a half years for taking bribes…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7894766.stm
199. Except the presidents are chosen by our redundant political parties and not the voters!
201 How about President Jade Goody?
205. Thanks for that well-thought through piece of Labour spin Robert. How about Labour’s uncosted promises? How many more years of £100bn borrowing do you think the country can cope with?
198. You can spin it all you like! Clegg is a serial gaffer!
Clegg is saying that redundant males should do low paid work or stay at home and look after the kids. Indeed by encouraging males into some female dominated professions he may actually be assisting certain types of preditors in there.
It just sounds grossly insenitive to me - it is not like paid paternity leave. I don’t think Cable or Huhne would make a gaffe about this sort of thing. As i say i thought it was just me being over sensitive but it is a gaffe - It is like saying it is a price well worth saying!
210 gangsters who take mafia money. that’s all i’ll say.
212 - No chance. East Angulah would never vote for her.
205 So, can he rely on your vote then Mr london?
[205] - “What about the state of public transport… all the problems they left us with in 1997 will be there to haunt them”
‘cos Labour did nothing to fix them. In 1997 Prescott told us he had a ten-year plan for public transport. We should be seeing the fruits of that now… oh. Using the trains is dreadful and ludicrously expensive. Granted that Ken improved the buses in London, but elsewhere…
Labour had such a good chance, and in so many ways they f*cked it up big time.
183/204 Excellent Richard, we have a deal. I’ll email to PtP asking him to confirm to both of us that he has recorded this bet.
205
Robert
Thanks for that rant. I enjoyed it…
219 PfP - Great. I think he has my e-mail address.
Dow -258
212. Historians might have fun with the Dual Presidency of Ant and Dec.
198. He’s not talking about post war. He’s talking about 1943-1944. Now it’s been a while by I always thought that WWII was 1939-1945. he’s talking about before the troops came home.
Also you are not addressing the core point. Where are the jobs?
After all if men do as he suggests then surely women will be excluded from those jobs. Is he suggesting they should go back to being housewives?
Furthermore, ‘traditionally’ many of these jobs are in low paid service industries. How are men who have been the primary bread winners expected to meet their financial commitments in these low paid jobs?
It’s socially manipulative nonsense and it’s what labour have been doing for 30 years and it’s one of the reasons why this country is going down the drain.
187. SallyC ‘PtP wil finally fall into our clutches..[ha..ha..ha!]‘ - the Tories’ clutches, or are you using the royal ‘we’ here?
“Mills guilty of accepting bribe” now the most-read story on the Beeb. But how many people have seen the headline and instantly thought “Heather”…?
225 My motives are entirely political.
[it's not often that phrase is used to exonerate].
The Mills story was the lead on the BBC R4 news at 3 pm. They mentioned Tessa Jowel
Fred Nelson : “New Labour struck an unspoken deal with bankers”
…As Peter Mandelson famously said, Labour was “seriously relaxed about people getting filthy rich”.
But with a catch. The government wanted its cut. The bankers would pay shedloads of tax, and they’d keep the party going as long as they could.
…The Treasury took a 40 per cent stake in every windfall. At one stage, a quarter of all UK tax was from financiers.
Amazingly, the bankers even wrote government policy. Sir Derek Wanless on the NHS. Lord Sandy Leitch on skills.
…All trails lead back to [Gordon's] door. Exhibit A is Sir James Crosby, the former HBOS chief last week accused of sacking a whistleblower. Just as everyone was getting read to lynch him, it turns out he was Brown’s appointment to the Financial Services Authority watchdog.
This is why he was ousted from the FSA faster than a Chelsea manager. He embodied the link between ministers and the banks.
There are plenty other links too. Take the disastrous shotgun marriage between Lloyds TSB and HBOS, which may sink them both.
…Who was the matchmaker? Our very own Prime Minister, over a drink with his mate Sir Victor Blank, chairman of Lloyds.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/columnists/177951/Bankrupted-by-a-pact-of-Gordon-Brown.html
226 It’s just staggering that the big B passed legisiation to exempt himself from prosecution.
Quite incredible that someone has been found guilty of accepting bribes from the head of government and the later can’t be prosecuted for handing them out!
228 Yes, but are they still married, or together, or separated, or whatever?? Will the mud stick?
231 This was a question posed 2 years ago and if there has been no divorce proceedings, it still hangs in the air.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4775700.stm
231. She is described as being ‘estranged’. That could have many connotations.
231 Augustus - Maybe, if she benefited financially.
226
It’s Italy.
What do you expect? A democracy?
In the UK he would have been found not guilty as taking money when a Minister means you are totally innocent of any crime..
Sally@230: Not staggering at all imo, given his history
205. Entertaining Draperbot rant there
230
Super Casinos?
Mafia?
Bribes?
is there anything we should know?
205- I guess it will be 1996 all over again, and as if the last twelve years never happened! Interesting theory…
205. I think that’ll be the first official Labour acceptance that they are gonna lose the next GE.
O/T. This will get very messy -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7895235.stm
‘Chancellor Alistair Darling has announced that the government is limiting bonuses paid out to staff by the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) … Mr Darling said bonuses at RBS would be cut from the £2.5bn paid last year to £340m. There will be “no reward for people who have failed,” he added. And bonuses will no longer be paid in cash, but in shares.’
Very interesting observations on Protectionism, by Dean Baker
…the United States is giving $700 billion in government subsidized loans to its banks from the Treasury and trillions more through the Fed. These loans are supporting the jobs of highly paid bankers who might be unemployed if the situation was left to the market.
The government is also maintaining its protection for the pharmaceutical industry, by providing patent monopolies. It is a continuing thrust of trade policy to increase the extent of this protection in other countries.
…higher-paid workers continue to enjoy protection in the form of licensing and professional barriers that prevent them from having to compete directly with their counterparts in the developing world.
…Protection for bankers, doctors, and lawyers affects the economy in the same way as protection for autoworkers. The graphs used to model the impact are exactly the same. The difference is that the cost of protection for highly paid workers is almost certainly much greater…
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press
241 another source of money most of which would have been spent in the economy now removed.
241 - What’s to stop them reclassifying them as something other than “bonuses”. Does this “no cash bonuses” only apply to the big earners, or does it apply to the “£17,000 staff”?
Doesn’t every share issued to staff dilute the Govt’s stake in the banks?
241 you can expect a flood of talent leaving to go overseas or to other banks now.
Fresh Clegg gaffe as he says recession will allow men to ‘reinvent’ themselves as stay-at-home fathers
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1147662/Fresh-Clegg-gaffe-says-recession-allow-men-reinvent-stay-home-fathers.html
Another Liberal Democrat watcher has commented:
http://nickcleggneilkinnock.blogspot.com/
This “no bonuses for failure” could catch on. Does it just apply to banks or will it apply to any loss making company? Newspaper editors for example. Maybe not…
205 et al. If only an incoming Conservative government did have 1997’s “problems” to cope with. They won’t be so lucky.
244. Every share issued will dilute the existing shareholders, but in cash terms it means that the bank remains better capitalised - because rather than paying out cash, the cash has been converted into shareholders equity representing the new shares issued.
The reason why bonuses are attractive to employers is that they do not count towards basic pay for pensions or for redundancy. There is nothing to prevent banks increasing base pay but it will have knock on effects. Also bonuses are a useful variable component to costs.
181 — “Muzzammil Hassan launched [Bridges TV] amid hopes that it would help portray Muslims in a more positive light.”
Yeah! Beheading his wife will surely puts yet another Muslim guy in a very “positive light” - certainly not that of another angry fanatical islamic man! Noooo….
Wow I am sure I shouldn’t be amazed, but that paragon of unbiased, impartial reporting, the BBC, has not thought to mention the latest poll. Oh, of course, they don’t do they, except of course the one before Christmas where Brown was only 1% point behind - but that was different wasn’t it, definately, err um
247
Does not apply to FSA…
250 Perhaps he thinks there’s no such thing as bad publicity.
249. Ken. What possible effect might it have on the share price?
246 - Whenever I visit your blog, Martin, I leave feeling as if I have drunk too much orange squash.
But I have to say I love the description of Vince Cable as an Economic Yoda.
224. I take your point about the war. I still see him looking at it in the longer term as well though. In terms of how the war was a catalyst.
What’s socially manipulative? He’s essentially saying there should be less sexism in society. You yourself noted the social restrictions on men in certain industries. Clegg opposes this, what’s the problem.
He is essentially saying that if there are jobs in traditionally female industries then men should take them. What is wrong with that?
Can’t say I’m surprised the Mail has gone for false sensationalism over fact. Especially since it lets them kick us a bit more.
254. I can imagine the dilution will be small compared will overall capitalisation ?
re 226 yes very convenient that Tessa’s not known as Mrs Mills
250- Who are you to judge this man and his culture, you neoconservative!
Stuart Dickson if you are reading.Sorry for slow reply.
I was partly serious,partly teasing.It just struck me as bizarre that a few days after polling 13%,NATS and OTHERS got a miserable 7% today.
All these wonderful speeches from Anthony Wells are all very wells,but at the end of the day they are an unsound bag of fury, signifying nothing.
Your analysis was more to the point,SD.
255.
Although Cable is not Green i do think he looks a little like him! In some senses it is a back handed compliment! (Not talking about how he looks but Yoda of course was a fountain of Wizdom as Cable is to the LD’s, unfortunatly the LD’s chose Clegg as Leader and he is a fountain of shit! 
254. Jsfl. Minimal. They’ll issue shares at the current price or just below it. It increases capital by as much as the bonuses are worth. There might be a liquidity driven drop when the lock-ups on the bonus expire (when bankers are allowed to sell.) The amounts are quite small. It might be seen as a small positive as cash isnt leaving the firm, but it’s going to be very small in value. Overshadowed by bigger macro effects.
241. “There will be “no reward for people who have failed”
So Darling will be foregoing his ministerial salary?
253 —
245. You are joking when you say flood of talent. More like rats leaving the sinking ships.
256. Let me say it simply and loudly
WHERE ARE THE JOBS?
Avoiding the main issue and trotting out the tired old gender arguments (in reverse) doesn’t cut it. Spinning it to say Clegg is supporting men is garbage.
I agree we need less sexism and that includes politicians playing unnecessary gender politics. People who needs jobs will go out and get them if there are jobs to go to (or the DWP will push them to get them).
There are not enough jobs to go around so swapping sexes in roles is not going to achieve anything. It’s totally irrelevant and a sad reflection of how facile Clegg is.
263 - Or the Treasury and FSA teams either? I don’t see any mention about those bonuses!
262 TY
258.
From 3 March, 2006 (would post it but I think they’re all copyrighted. Don’t want to be sued by Mr I. Hislop !!)
http://www.private-eye.co.uk/covers.php?showme=1153
267. Surely even these clowns would not leave the Treasury and FSA to pick up bonuses for abject failure but stop the banks giving them out.
266. He’s talking about the principle. A case of there are jobs there then there should not be social restrictions on them taking them.
“People who needs jobs will go out and get them if there are jobs to go to (or the DWP will push them to get them). ”
This what he’s saying should happen, whereas now as you noted there are social restrictions on that.
266. I think Clegg talking on Sexism is like Griffin talking about racial harmony!
Clegg and his ‘30 comment’ could be construed as him thinking womean are sexu@l objects. Clegg through this gaffe just reinforces the other gaffes briefly mentioned in the Mail article.
270
http://business.scotsman.com/bankinginsurance/FSA-staff-in-line-for.4977687.jp
205.
More of that please. Lots and lots more! I just love that primal scream stuff.
I especially liked this bit:
- “hectoring, arrogant, charmless”
Now, who do we all know to be “hectoring”, “arrogant” and “charmless”? Why… it’s The Idiot of course!
266 jsfl
I think ’swapping sexes in roles’ (swapping roles between sexes) will accomplish one thing - it will reduce wages.
In the main, women still get the ****** end of the stick when it comes to salaries.
Seems to be wildly varying claims on amount of bonuses. BBC say “legal minimum” £340m (I assume contract obligated to pay bonuses), Time claim it is only 175m. Hmmm, anybody what to explain the difference?
274. Tsk, tsk, Stuart. You’ve broken Mike’s command.
205 Robertclondon- I thought of the late (great) Sir John Mills when I read your post.
If you remember, he was a life long Tory who switched to supporting Labour, shortly before his death, on the basis that in government they had proved themselves a moderate party capable of uniting the whole country and acting for the greater good. Unfortunately Sir John made the mistake of confusing Mr Blair with the Labour party and the moderation (if it were ever truly there) did not survive Blair’s departure.
I would hope some of those who will perhaps still vote Labour in 2010 out of hostility and fear of the Tories will, like Sir John, be won over, when the reality proves better than they feared.
RE 205.
We were wondering when the Dollybots would return. Now we know. An excellent synoptic post of Dollybot strategy:
1) Play bigotted class war politics with Cameron and Osborne.
Clearly has failed and just makes Labour look like the Nasty Party to anyone outside of the dyed in the wool types.
2) Stick to the discreditted Tory cuts line.
Argument destroyed since Labour through any concept of balance of payments out of the window.
3) Allege Britain had to be rescued in ‘97.
Wrong although public services needed some extra cash. Not to mention an own goal since it begs the question of where this government has been for the past decade.
4) Play up European splits.
Not likely to happen given that the new intake will be a dull shade of mild euroscepticism.
275. “I think ’swapping sexes in roles’ (swapping roles between sexes) will accomplish one thing - it will reduce wages.”
Why?
250 Philippe Magnan, please be careful makin such statements. There will be a trial.
280. Supply and demand?
Oscar Betting
I decided to protect my money on Winslet by betting on Streep, also :
I now have:
$75.69 on Meryl Streep @ 5.4
$333.04 on Kate Winslet @ 1.5
I’ll make 90$ if Winslet wins, and will lose nothing if Meryl Street takes it.
Why ? Cause, doing my homework, I just saw that Meryl did beat Kate for Best Actress this year at the SAG Awards.
I like to make money, but hate to lose some… so I’m protecting my bets… Of course, I’m kinda of screwed if Angelina Jolie takes it!
Any counter-advice will be appreciated. I’m off for now, but will read ‘em tomorrow.
265 ‘You are joking when you say flood of talent. More like rats leaving the sinking ships.’
Malcolm, not all the bankers at RBS will have been reckless. Some divisions within the bank will have been run very successfully, and without unnecessary risk. Those employees will leave, to go to those firms where they will be rewarded for their efforts. RBS stands the risk of becoming a zombie bank, staffed by the incompetent. With regard to it’s resale value for the long suffering taxpayer that cannot be a good thing.
278.
Yes, I have always thought that the decontamination could only ever be half done in opposition. It would require the Tories to be in government and seen to not be eating babies for some more sceptical types to put their Thatcherite bogey man away.
281 — Right, I should have specified : Al-legedly beheading his pretty wife…
260. URW
Slow reply better than no reply.
My poll analysis better than St Anthony of Wells?!?
Shoorley Shome Mishtake.
281- As Philippe is Canadian and not a resident of Buffalo, New York, he is unlikely to be called as a juror in the coming criminal proceedings. Therefore, there is little risk of prejudice to the fair trial rights of the evident beheader and thus there seems little reason for Philippe to “be careful” (unless riots are being planned against those who criticize the accused).
Is there a Scottish breakdown?
Call me a cynic but has the RBS bonus thing been announced to keep the Millsissue from the public?
288-You Kept It Simple,Stuart ! The truth is that Wells,however shrewd his comments was commenting on a phantasmagoria.
One day 13% a few days later 7%.The polling is an insult to our intelligence.Part of the problem is rounding up or rounding down.
289 - we British are too used to the ultra-cautious laws relating to contempt of court that operate in the UK in advance of a trial.
[290] - Er, you misunderstand how prejudice of a trial occurs.
205. This is what I find so funny about that post…
“What about the state of public transport, decline in industry, unemployment, crime etc. all the problems they left us with in 1997 will be there to haunt them…”
*ALL THE PROBLEMS THEY LEFT US WITH IN 1997 WILL BE THERE TO HAUNT THEM*
Brilliant. There you have it. Labour admit that they inherited “problems” and that they singularly *failed* to solve any of them. And that’s from the horses mouth. From a repellent Labour apologist and spinster.
They admit they have FAILED. They admit they have achieved NOTHING. Zilch. Zero. Nada.
Well done. What a great reason to vote Labour.
The Tories inherited a broken economy and a country which was fast becoming a world joke.
They fixed it.
Labour inherited an excellent economy, prestigious international standing and global influence AND *STILL* FAILED TO SOLVE ANY OF THOSE PROBLEMS AND THEY ADMIT IT.
Oh. And they ruined they economy and bankrupted the country too..
Yeah. Vote Labour.
(lol)
293 I disagree, antifrank. I think the British approach is a superb reminder to all involved that an accused is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. IMO The US and and our European neighbours would be very well advised to copy us on this. Not going to happen, though.
Afternoon all, now that Tessa Jowell’s husband has been sentenced to 4yrs and 6 months in an Italian pokey are we going to see the Rt Hon Minister for White Elephants resign from both the Cabinet and Parliament? She has benefited from the proceeds of crime given that during the period she signed hundreds of thousands of pounds worth of mortgage documents without allegedly knowing what she was signing, her husband used the money received from Berlusconi (not good on Italian spelling sorry)to repay mortgages prior to taking out new ones. In Scotland she would be facing an application before the courts for confiscation of her home under the assets of crime legislation so will we see the DPP in England have the balls to do so in England?
293- At least this admonishment is consistent with the regular insistence by those on the left that Bush and Blair be described as ALLEGED war criminals.
221 Richard - I’ve now emailed PtP re our bet. I fear I may have been on the generous side here, since Hills are offering 3/1 against Labour winning 150-199 seats, so you could profitably cover yourself should you so wish ……..except for the small matter of Labour winning fewer than 150 seats. Hmm ….anything’s possible we live in volatile times!
271. This what he’s saying should happen, whereas now as you noted there are social restrictions on that.
There also happen to be educational restrictions as well. Like everything else these days you need necessary qualifications. Just check the ads for Social Care, Education and Health. So how are men who are qualified in other areas supposed to switch if they are made unemployed.
They haven’t got the qualifications, they can’t afford the training and the DWP won’t provide it. After a period of months will train you as a fork-lift driver or a railway worker if you want (real female dominated areas those are).
In anycase it often takes years to qualify for such roles. So while we are following little Nick’s ‘principles’ we let our homes and property get taken away from us and our families suffer? Well thank you Nick.
So that leaves retail, waitressing and cleaning and if you are not undercut by foreign labour you’ll find that the jobs are not there.
All of these are low paid jobs in anycase which will also ensure that people lose their homes and their families suffer.
However at least you admit he is not focussing on the reality of our situation:
He’s talking about the principle
Halloo this is the middle of a recession, people are losing their jobs and the leader of the Liberal Democrats is living in the cloud cuckoo land of 10/ 20 years down the line. Is this what we can expect from the Liberal Democrats?
‘We’re not thinking about your problems, we’re thinking about some utopian egalitarian society in the future’
Well please carry on. I’m sure it will work wonders at a General Election!
Now tell me what other showstoppers has Clegg got in his masterplan?
Shish! How can anybody vote Libdem?
296- That’s a classic example of what’s known as a legal fiction; of course an accused is either guilty or innocent from the inception of the matter. The concept of “innocent until proven guilty” is a fiction maintained for the purposes of ensuring a fair trial. It has no substance in any other context (other than as a rhetorical tool used to subdue criticism directed against an accused).
294- I’m an attorney; what’s the status of your legal credentials?
297. Interesting - very Interesting!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_laundering
Actually some of the terror legislation Labour passed has jail sentences in itself - I wonder whether Brown will interpret the legislation like he did with Iceland?
S&P below 800.weathercock can’t be far away !
The CPI inflation figure seems to have stopped falling - down just 0.1% between December and January. 3% instead of the Government’s target of 2%. This isn’t how it was meant to be: energy prices were supposed to be falling rapidly in the first part of this year, and the squeeze on incomes should be keeping control on the prices of many other items.
RPI may go negative due to declining housing costs, but other items have inflation rates in decidedly positive territory.
So do interest rates need to go up? And we can’t have qualitative easing, can we?
UK legislation
Money laundering legislation in the UK is governed by three pieces of primary legislation:-
The Terrorism Act 2000[1]
The Anti-Terrorist Crime & Security Act 2001[2]
The Proceeds of Crime Act 2002[3]
Secondary Regulation is provided by the Money Laundering Regulations 2003[4] and 2007[5].
Professional guidance (which is submitted to and approved by the UK Treasury) is provided by industry groups including the Joint Money Laundering Steering Group[6] and the Law Society[7].
In the UK “money laundering” need not involve money (it relates to assets of any kind, both tangible and intangible, and to the avoidance of a liability) and need not involve laundering either a thief’s possession of the assets he himself stole is included. There is no lower limit to what has to be reported - a suspicious transaction involving a single £5 note may be required to be reported. All persons not just financial services employees and firms are technically required to report, and obtain consent for, their own involvement in crime or suspicious activities involving money or assets of any kind. So in the UK a thief who steals a vest from a clothes store commits a “money laundering” offence because he has possession of an asset derived from crime. He is technically required to seek consent from law enforcement for his continued possession of the vest if he is to avoid risk of prosecution for “money laundering.”
*************************************************************
The UK legislation also creates a money laundering offence where a person enters into, or becomes concerned in, an arrangement which facilitates by whatever mean the acquisition, retention, use, or control of criminal property by another person. This has impacted upon lawyers and other professional advisers in the UK who act for a client whom they suspect may possess criminal property of any kind.
***************************************************************
Because the UK legislation is wide-ranging, the UK FIU authority, the Serious Organised Crime Agency, receives a large volume of suspicious activity reports (SARs) - in 2005 just under 200,000 SARs were received. The number of SARs received appears to be growing by almost 50% each year.
The UK legislation was relaxed slightly in 2005 to allow banks and financial institutions to proceed with low value transactions involving suspected criminal property without requiring specific consent for every transaction but the reporting of all transactions is still required.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_laundering
306. Hopefully a Tory MP will make a complaint to the Serious Organised Crime Agency, the parliamentry ombudsman etc!
297. Of course not - it should be clear enough by now that members of the ruling party are exempt from criminal prosecution.
On the Johnson thing–in an actual leadership election there would be candidates from various groups but currently we’re looking at a cabinet level battle rather than anything else so I think the key factor is which of the individuals involved is proactive rather than passive. My guess at that list would be:
McDoom (maybe in a funk?)
Mandy-Campbell
Balls
Harperson
(Maybe some others I haven’t noticed.)
My theory…
People say Mandy is all about the Labour party but I disagree–I think he’s 100% EUSSR. Bananaboy was obviously the anointed EUSSR candidate last year but he fluffed it and Mandy doesn’t have enough time to big up Milliband2 for the top job. So if it is Mandy behind the Johnson thing then it would be Johnson as Mandy’s puppet candidate imo.
However I think Mandy needs a full set of ZNL party heavyweights to force McDoom to stand down and currently it doesn’t look like Prescott will play. If Mandy can’t get that then I think his Plan B requires his pals in the BBC to stop shoring up McDoom’s support by blaming the collapse entirely on US bankers. If the BBC switch to saying that at least some of the problem is McDoom’s fault then his personal rating will hit single figures and Mandy may be able to drive him out without Prescott’s help.
Either way sooner or later Mandy will get rid of McDoom unless McDoom gets rid of Mandy first.
I was trying to think what I’d do if I was McDoom and believed something might turn up before the next election. Given my view on which members of the cabinaet are the proactive ones I was thinking something along the lines of:
1) Get rid of Mandy, Darling and Smith.
2) Balls to Chancellor to keep him happy.
3) Harperson to Home Office and then nobble her (with 2/3 of Labour voters) by leaking some embarassing stats on immigration so she’d be the one on the telly trying to defend it.
282 Corporeal
I don’t know why it happens.
My evidence is mainly anecdotal, but it just seems to happen that way.
[302] - Lots of stupid people get to be nuclear physicists; shouldn’t stop anyone else from complaining about Chernobyl.
You said that, since our Candadian friend wasn’t going to serve on the jury it was irrelevant what he said, but my understanding of the British law is that is immaterial if what he publishes might prejudice the opinion of a potential juror [which is why the law can regulate the newspapers owned by a foreign citizen who also would be ineligible for jury service]
Now, since the case is apparently going to be heard in the US, it’s hard to see that pb.com is going to fall under the jurisdiction of the court, and so it is for that reason, rather than our Canadian friend’s nationality, that his not being “careful” is unlikely to prejudice the trial.
jsfl is Martin Day, and I claim my £5.
Phillipe,Richard and the two main Peters.
There is madness in the air this afternoon.Last price matched on CON Most Seats was 1.28 and on an Overall Maj. 1.64.
Probably a rogue punter.You do get them !
The threatening of Alex Hilton continues…
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2009/2/17/11307/3162
300. Are you being deliberately obtuse? He’s not saying all men should instantly cancel everything and go into childcare, but that IF they have the opportunity (including current students who’re looking for career paths) then they should not be held back by social restrictions.
Feel free to explain how sitting on the dole and not taking up any such opportunities is the preferred option.
So your argument is that based on us now being in a recession caused by too much emphasis on short-term boosts to the economy, we should abandon long term economic planning? Interesting logic there.
299 Richard - running some theoretical numbers, Labour has to perform at least as badly as this, overall, for me to win our bet :
Con 370
Lab 199
LibDem 48
NI 18
Nats,etc 15
—
Total : 650
—
(Equates to Tory majority of 90 seats)
It could be close!
311- “Lots of stupid people get to be nuclear physicists”
No they don’t. But anyway, thanks for the kind words.
And from your non-answer, I presume you have no legal training.
“Now, since the case is apparently going to be heard in the US, it’s hard to see that pb.com is going to fall under the jurisdiction of the court, and so it is for that reason, rather than our Canadian friend’s nationality, that his not being “careful” is unlikely to prejudice the trial.”
Now you’re just not making any sense at all. Philippe is Canadian. The crime occurred in America. Philippe’s nationality alone makes his statements completely irrelevant to any possible trial, just as I stated. Nothing you have said contradicts this (even though you pretend to have done so).
Even jurors themselves who have formed opinions about a matter to be tried, or about an accused, are not automatically disqualified from sitting on juries. The operative issue is whether the potential juror is able to set aside any preconceptions about the accused and decide the matter objectively based only on the evidence produced at trial and the law applicable to the charged offense.
Your first lesson is free. Now go to law school for a few years and get back to me if you still disagree.
No comments from NickP to-day? Do I detect an increase in antagonism here, his cover blown at last perhaps? If he has to be withdrawn as past his sell-by date, I wonder whom they will appoint in his place - somebody likely to hold on to his seat, I suppose.
314 ‘The threatening of Alex Hilton continues…’
From the linked article -
‘So far he has indicated he will attack me for the following.
Through my 10% ownership of Messagespace I am funding right wing blogs including Guido Fawkes, Devils Kitchen and Iain Dale.
Because of this I am morally responsible for what they write and what their commenters write and that this is incompatible with progressive Labour values.’
By that warped logic, Tory voters should consider boycotting suppliers who’s owners support the Left!
Extraordinary.
If I was Hilton, I’d think long and hard about my future association with the Labour Party if that’s their general attitude.
318 Nick’s cover blown? What do you mean? Have I missed something, Svejk?
318
Nick is like the others.
Awaiting instructions on a change in internet strategy. The last one has been so very unsuccessful. Toffs, do nothing, inexperienced, err all failed.
Love bomb the Conservatives?
The Conservatives eat liver and bacon sandwiches?
If there was a Labour leadership election, does anyone think the Economic situation would count against Harman?
ie: in an Economic crisis, there would be a sense of needing a “Heavyweight” person to deal with the crisis.
Surely Harman is much better known for her views on things like Equality etc. Would they be considered so important in this situation (even amongst a Labour electorate)?
314 - The claims of the yet unnamed person threating Hilton are plain stupid.
You, you, you, run a company, it makes profit!
You, you, you, ran a webite, which you sold for a profit!
And most worryingly for anybody who believes in free speech etc etc
Your your your company provides a way for other blogs to make money, some of which are anti-Labour!. By that logic ISP providers should only give access and host sites, which only have the same views as the ISP management. Lets just ban anything anti-Labour / anti-government and be done with it!
319- Draper’s goal is clear: total destruction of the non-Labour friendly blogosphere. All bluster and intimidation, no reasoning or compromise. And he just might succeed.
Looks like the Wembley rumour is back again.
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:b3fb7e1b-260a-4648-986a-c7e811f3eabf
Brown really does like in a fantasy world.
Chaps , another THREAD has been up for over half an hour
On the mad polling…
My personal guess would be that voting has become geographically very clumpy and it’s that (on top of ex-Labour volatility) that’s what is giving these odd differences between the polls. Whatever the cause is though the two options seem to be:
a) Tories miles ahead.
b) Tories slightly less miles ahead but the LDs snapping very close behind on Labour’s heels.
Long-term I’d say b) was actually slightly worse for ZNL.
313 URW - Yes, I saw the Tory Majority match at 1.64 - unbelelievable, especially in the light of this afternoon’s poll. stjohn, who’s currently away, would be eating his heart out at missing out un such prices - he reckons (and rightly so imo) and actually at lower odds than these, that this is the best political bet around.
329.PfP.I have a lot to discuss with stjohn but not on a public forum.
You get some funny matches on BF.Now and again someone Lays when he thinks he is Backing but this wasn’t one of those.
I like doodling away on dead threads !
When oh when is Nick Clegg going to discover some backbone and kick out that illiberal LD peer Lord Carlile from the Lib Dems?.
We now have him on R5 supporting the Govt and saying Stella Rimington (ex secret squirrel) “stirring it up” and “talking nonsense” when she said we were heading into a police state etc.
With useful idiots like Carlile as our “independent” reviewer of civil liberties, we are in a right mess.
Have the Lib Dems no principles on who they allow to remain in their party? This man is doing serious damage to all our liberties…..
325 That will be Brown’s Ceaucescu moment. I can’t wait.
326. “Chaps , another THREAD has been up for over half an hour”
Running to catch up again.