Labour down to 28% with ComRes
January 25th, 2009
CONSERVATIVES 43% (+2)
LABOUR 28% (-4)
LIB DEMS 16% (+1)
Brown’s party now trailing by 15 points
As ConservativeHome has broken the embargo I will do so as well. Tim Montgomerie should not have done that. See note below.
The ComRes poll for tomorrow’s Indy is now out and will add to the gloom at Brown Central. For the party’s share is down to 28% - the first time it has dropped below the 30 mark in any poll from any organisation since September.
So four of the pollsters that regularly do GB voting intention surveys now have the Tories with a double digit lead which would be sufficient at a general election, to give the party a comfortable majority.
The numbers are probably more important for the impact they will have on Labour’s spirits than as an election prediction - particularly as they come from the same firm that only seven weeks ago had the party just one point behind.
To have seen things fall away so fast must be quite hard. Conversely the Tories have shown once again that they can recover which will reinforce Cameron’s position as the general election gets closer.
For Nick Clegg there will be welcome relief that ComRes has them with a reasonable share. Back in November they were down to 12%.
The firm uses past vote weighting to make its samples politically representative though the way this works out in operation is a little different to the other past vote weighting pollsters, Populus and ICM.
With a bit of luck the next poll - the ICM survey for the Guardian - should be available tomorrow night.
MessageSpace Advertising
First!!
Embargo-breaking, eh?
first, by the way.
First.
First?
Labour sub-30, that is not good at all for them!
First?
Oooh, nearly.
Where did he break the embargo? I can’t see it on his blog.
5 - On his twitter!
5 look at his twitter
re 1 I usually lurk for the political gossip and don’t say anything, but couldn’t resist the opportunity!
re 5. Under his “Twitterings section”
5. Downpage right - under Twitter.
Looks like good news for the SNP and Plaid Cymru !
Post-Christmas skintness.
The trend is as important as the headline figures. We’re seeing a severe and precipitate collapse in Labour support: they’ve gone from almost level pegging to landslide defeat territory in Just One Month.
Even in our volatile times, this is unusual. A paradigm shift, perhaps.
Will the trend continue? How far and how fast can they fall? We saw last summer that their absolute hardcore support is around 25%. I see no reason, at the moment, why they couldn’t go that low again.
Labour = finished!!!!!!!!
I am a tad surprised that it isnt a bit more but there is plenty of time for it to seep into the conscious of the nation that Brown has ruined the country.
Caution: ComRes.
Woo-hoo! We’ll take that - as the start of the great slide in Labour’s fortunes. Worse to come for them.
After the revelations about the Labour Peers willing to amend primary legislation……….I think Labour deserve to swap places with the LibDems in the pecking order.
How anyone who isn’t ‘on the make’, ‘on the take’ or ‘on drugs’ could even contemplate voting for Labour is beyond me.
We don’t need a General Election; we need a bloody REVOLUTION…..we need to get out on the streets and shout - “I’m as mad as hell - and I’M NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANYMORE”
15 Caution that its too high or low or just caution?
12 - Yes the trend is very bad for Labour, we need to see the details of the poll on economics questions etc too!
Wow. That explains why gabble and co are out in force this evening.
The ethics of breaking the embargo are troubling but we should also wonder whether in these straitened times, newspapers will commission polls if they are regularly scooped on their investments.
Gloomy in the bunker tonight no doubt.
16 more months of this to go, and precious little they can do about it. Not only do they have nothing left in the armoury, but events will continue to conspire against them.
Sticking neck out - think we could see less than Foot’s 23% this year and it could go to 20 or 21%. Not that my prediction competition entry had it that low - how things have changed in 2 or 3 weeks.
The poll doesn’t scan unless the BNP are making sinister strides.
It’s bad for Labour but hardly surprising. I suspect worse is to come.
Not much reaction on Betfair yet. SPIN is suspended but it has to shift a few points on resumption.
The Tory lead has grown from about 5-6% to 10% over the last six weeks.
Not particularly surprising.
23. Swing to SNP from Labour in Scotland?
24- I’ll have a guess PtP.
CON 354-360
LAB 222-228
LD 42-45
This poll is where on Conhome, precisely?
Baxter gives the Tories a 120 seat majority, on these figures. The Lib Dems could fit in a large Shoppa Hoppa minibus.
28 - Twitter bit.
I will flag this as good for the Lib Dems. A general election campaign could see him add a few per cent to that and five weeks of Gordon trying to defend his record could see Labour getting about 25.
I think Labour have to realise that 30% is probably the best they can hope for under Brown…
Just a question Mike. How do you KNOW that Tim Montgomerie was subject to the embargo?
25 - Tim, your maths sucks big time.
25. Er, no. Comres had you 1 point behind in December. Now they have you fifteen points behind.
Annoying! Onwards…
The comment on the Lib Dems suggests they should be pleased, yet the numbers show them down 1 percentage point.
Pleased it’s not 12%, or is it a typo?
Good poll for the tories, 6 polls now is it showing a clear trend. More accurately I thnk it’s bad for Labour, as it’s their rubbish performance which has led to a swing away from them IMHO. Cameron just needs to keep it together and avoid big mistakes and he should be the next PM.
But a long way to go I suppose!
33 - They never let the truth get in the way of the spin!
Mike - on the etiquette of breaking the embargo, what are the ethics?
Is it ok, so long as you are not the first? Or does the embargo apply individually to each party priveleged with the advance information?
I just wonder… In the internet age, it is very difficult to maintain any sort of blackout and breaking an embargo on ContinuityIDS is hardly the same exposure as breaking it on ITN, but as has been mentioned upthread there is considerable financial outlay from the papers on polls.
35 … and downwards.
“The shadow of sleaze. Cash for changes in the law charges against Labour peers are far worse than cash-for questions….The Sunday Times approached peers from all the main parties. Only Labour peers took the bait. The inferences that Labour peers are in the market for lobbyists’ money, and also that they know their market value, are hard to resist.” The Guardian puts the boot in!
If this is the trend then the GE will be next year.
I seem to recall once IainDale accidentally breaking an embargo, and Mike responding by publishing on the grounds that he wasn’t subject to it and had no responsibility to the poll commissioners to keep it secret.
33. Of course Tim does not mention that according to Comres on the 30th November the Conservative lead was a dubious 1%. So in 56 days (including Christmas) there has been a 7% swing from Labour to the Conservatives. In my view that’s pretty good!
That’s all the major polling organistations, isn’t it? So, it’s an objective fact - Tories pulling away again.
Next question - who is switching? Labour->Conservative, or what?
33,34.
I prefer to use the polling averages.
I didn’t think Labour were within one point as Comres had them.
Things wiil get worse anyway, so the Tory boys on here need more tissues with their clearasil!
So is embargo breaking by twittering technically twattering?
Ooh! ComRes falls into line at last.
This should make Mandelson wish he was back with his European crony’s and cutting deals. Instead he will have to come up with even more fantastic policies as Labour re-enacts the Titanic.
38 - Good point. Tim Montgomerie mentioning a 15pt lead is hardly the same exposure as putting it (with details) on the front page of Pb.com. (especially as he reported false rumours of a YouGov poll only a few days ago)
What is there to stop someone who gets a poll, with a lot of movement in it, which is embargoed for (say) three hours later, from using a third party to make a killing over betting movements?
44. Nope the ICM poll has not been published this month yet for some reason. Last was 14th December.
Editorials like this one from the Guardian will not help the mood in the bunker
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/25/lords-cash-labour
Is there a way back?
I can’t see one - at all but it ain’t over until the Scotsman is out of Downing Street
38 - What isn’t clear is if Mike had the advance details too, or whether he is just repeating someonce else’s story.
I suspect he did - but there is a difference between the two.
45 You mean you prefer to look at the least awful picture (which might be right)
NP MP @ 20:11. Fair play to you Nick. If I were you I’m afraid I’d be sitting in a dark room sulking somewhere!
Hope you’re not in Nokia range!
52 - Actually it’s clear that Mike had advance details. What isn’t clear is if Tim Montgomerie had them (officially)
51. The comments are better/worse (delete as appropriate)
guardianreeda
25 Jan 09, 7:39pm (30 minutes ago)
This scandal therefore does not merely threaten four stupid and greedy peers and their party: it threatens the credibility of the unreformed House of Lords itself – and a good thing too.
I agree heartily. The sooner that a washed out prime minister surrounded by dross can no longer abuse democracy by making a multiply disgraced unelectable liar a Lord so he can insert him into the top of government, the better it will be for democracy.
The 21st century Labour party is the most sleazy unprincipled bunch of incompetent fools that this country has ever had the misfortune to be led by, and there is plenty of competition in our long history.
55 (con) - and if he didn’t, then Mike has no right to criticise.
36. Pleased because Comres usually have us right down. To be up on 16/17% on them equates to seeing 19%+ on ICM.
Do we know what the weightings were like and how they affected it?
I think 13% others is a little high. But I’m sure our Nat friends will disagree eloquently, and that is little more than a gut reaction from me.
23 ComRes usually shows a high percentage share for “Others”. The BNP are probably on 2-3%.
56 - Yeah it is often funny to read the comments on there!
53 - Not really.
When Comres bounced up Labour to within a point, the averages showed 5-6%.
I think this we have now reached the end for Labour’s electoral prospects.
The economy has turned down and it’s deep, dark and desperate.
It’s now clear that we are in a mess beyond prediction or management. Yet our PM pretends to both understand and predict the way forward.
Labour has no chance under Gordon Brown. He denies any culpability for the mess we are in and has no ideas to fix it. He will be increasingly blamed for the mess we are in.
Betfair are only offering 9/2 for my election date, 07/05/2009.
Do they know something ?
44.
“Tories pulling away again.”
But have they been they pulling together?
Is this the poll which are rumoured earlier this week then? The numbers seem about right.
Although you weren’t first, Mike, so you had no option, breaking embargoes is bad form. Reliable news will be harder to get in the future.
27 I will guess you are right, URW!
Hehe, the animosity between ConHome and PBC continues. Who actually broke the embargo?
What’s the technical definition of a “slump” and a “depressions” (if any)?
I expect we’ll soon here mutterings in the PLP - spineless lot they had thier chance last year. Wonder if the Milibanana is planning to split!:)
48. Thinking about it - posting the news on the net actually increases the probability that I might buy the paper… Is this indicative of another tiping point in the web vs MSM relationship?
68 - There is no agreed technical definition for a depression. Some would say a peak to trough decline in economic activity of at least 10%. Others say an extended period of sclerotic growth. No hard and fast rule really.
69 - Very drole!
Labour have been running quite a core vote/get the vote out strategy since Middle England decided they didn’t like Gordon Brown. Would be nice to know what the predicted swing in marginals is. Could be even worse news for Labour.
62 Yes, StJohn.
URW has already had a punt at what the spreads will be tomorrow and we can all guess which way the Betfair markets are going. The one to watch however is Hill’s ‘When Will Gordon Go’ market. Haven’t checked it in a while but if Sidney is slow to adjust, there could be some value in 2009 when the market reopens about 10 am tomorrow.
O/T.
“Labour peers are on tape offering to amend legislation for cash.”
How is this particularly different than Tony Blair and Ecclestone over the Smoking adverts ban?
How is it really much different to a Lord being a paid lobbiest for a firm:
“Oh of course I will advise you and lobby for your general interests but when I go into the Chamber of the House I am entirely my own men! Er….How fat exactly is that brown envelope??”
71. Thanks James
15% Tory lead tomorrow
about 1 hour ago from mobile web
That was Tim M’s twitter. Can’t see the problem with this.
68. I dont know of any technical definition, but a Slump is usually no more than 18 months to 2 years in length. A Depression is about a Decade in length were many people end up in serious poverty.
73 - Might be worth PoliticsHome doing another monster poll!!
55.Alex, why are you getting your knickers in a twist about this? Mike is a very fair bloke, and you can bet that both he and Tim were given the embargoed details. PB.com and ConHom are the most read political sites which do immediately post details of polls when they appear.
72, Thanks - btw it is droll not drole
Good poll, looks like (for the second year running) the post-September boost for Labour has now run its course and the tide has turned again. By April 2008, the Tories had figures in some polls of twice Labour’s share. I see no reason to think the same thing won’t happen in 2009 - but will Brown get a third chance to come storming back this September? I doubt it, somehow.
The polls since the end of November
25 Jan 45 28 16 Con +15
18 Jan 44 30 17 Con +14
16 Jan 45 32 14 Con +13
15 Jan 41 32 15 Con +9
11 Jan 43 33 15 Con +10
8 Jan 41 34 15 Con +7
21 Dec 39 34 16 Con +5
18 Dec 42 35 14 Con +7
14 Dec 39 35 15 Con +4
14 Dec 38 33 19 Con +5
12 Dec 41 35 15 Con +6
11 Dec 41 36 11 Con +5
11 Dec 37 36 14 Con +1
7 Dec 39 35 17 Con +4
30 Nov 37 36 17 Con +1
Not so much a steady drift, rather there’s an abrupt shift late Dec/early Jan (Woolies? Obvious pointlessness of VAT cut? Debt estimates?).
Be reasonable to expect more polls pretty much the same until something causes another re-assessment by the electorate.
Brown is surely in deep, deep trouble now. Carnage ahead in June - no county councils, maybe third place in the euros, headless chickens will be running round the Labour barnyard in droves…
80 - I’m not. But i wouldn’t be so sure that Montgomorie was given the poll.
That is a huge movement from ComRes, but weren’t they reporting a Tory Lead of only 1 point before Christmas? Seems a very large jump, and hasn’t Our Genial Host shown that their weighting methods have a larger impact on the headline figures than it should? I think I’d wait for ICM before celebrating. Not that I really care, I’m not on the Spreads anymore with most of my money being put on Labour waiting until the last possible moment before calling the election.
I have just written this up based on what Mike has written above. Seeing as I never get advanced info of Indy polls I’m not sure I have broken an embargo or not! Anyway, my point is this…
This is the fourth poll in a row to show a lengthening Tory lead. This is clearly good news, although even Conservative strategists will have to acknowledge that this must be mainly down to people’s anger with Labour, and the Prime Minister in particular, rather than a growing enthusiasm for the Tories. Or - could it be that Ken Clarke’s return has done it?! Perhaps we will find out more when the detail of the poll is published.
I wonder how long it will be before we hear the sound of Labour leadership rumblings. Give it until March. Then the great sages will say that if Gordon Brown doesn’t do well enough in the Euro elections he will have to go. You see if I’m not right.
81 - It would have been easier if I had but the circonflexe accent on the o!
Middlesborough sth and Sunderland central very close to fallng ob these figure.
Not surprised by this. Labour really have had a rotten couple of weeks.
re 90 unlike the rest of us who’ve had a rotten 12 years!
88. Touchey!!
87 Thanks Iain
Punters are directed to Betfair’ ‘Party Leaders’ market.
…Betfair’s
87 “I wonder how long it will be before we hear the sound of Labour leadership rumblings. Give it until March. Then the great sages will say that if Gordon Brown doesn’t do well enough in the Euro elections he will have to go. You see if I’m not right.”
With the greatest respect Iain, you don’t need to be mystic meg to see that one coming!
PtP and stjohn.I am very long 2009 and a Con Overall.
The dubious joy of Laying 2010 lies in the total volatility of the situation we are in.
My tinpot theory is that ‘very bad’ for Labour could be good for 2009 but that’s all it is.
92 - I think you meant to put an accent on the e and skip the y…
Apologies if this has been picked up earlier today (no time to trawl both threads) but I’ve just been reading the Frank Field piece in today’s Sunday Times Magazine. Although he has been long touted as a possible (but somewhat inconceivable) Tory defector, or at least someone Dave might ‘use’ in some way, the section about his close relationship with Thatcher and his part in her falling on her sword did astonish me somewhat. I’ve never seen this reported or commented on before. I thought this extract deserved posting here:
“Two nights before Mrs Thatcher lost office in 1990, Field — convinced few Tories had the guts to tell her the game was up — decided to visit Downing Street and tell her himself. “For some extraordinary reason, I used to have — and still do — a good relationship with her.” Informed that the PM was busy, he settled in a waiting room. After a while Norman Tebbit entered: “Frank, what do you want?” “I’ve come to tell the PM she’s finished. I suppose you won’t let me see her.” Shortly afterwards, Mrs T herself appeared, “trembling”, recalls Field, “as I imagine people do when told they have inoperable cancer.” Field found her a chair. “Frank, why have you come?” she asked in quavering tones. “I’ve come to tell you that you are finished. I’m not discussing fairness, Prime Minister, I’m discussing the options. You cannot now go on a top note, but you can go on a high note.” He told her that Michael Heseltine, who was leading the drive to unseat her, was vacuuming up MPs’ support in the race to be her successor. “Oh, Mr Heseltine is a dreadful bad man,” she said wearily. Field urged her to get her candidate in the race, and when she asked who that would be, said: “It’s obvious, Prime Minister. It’s the person you’ve promoted to all these offices — John Major.” “Major? He’s a very young man, Frank.”
“Time will take care of his age, Prime Minister, but if you don’t have your candidate, your successor will be Heseltine.”
Field was smuggled out the back way and no word of his visit was released to the press; we know, of course, how the story ended.
Link: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5561728.ece
This is the Labour MP for Birkenhead we’re talking about, in the aftermath of the poll tax and with the Tories in real danger of being thrown out and Labour coming storming back. If the above is true, I find it astonishing and surely other Labour MPs and activists would do too?
Or is this simply old news? (sorry for taking up so much space if it is!!)
98 - Bizarre! Never heard that anywhere!
http://www.gofourth.co.uk/
Just wet myself laughing at the above. Pic of a fat Prescott with the banner “The cyber warrior”. Apparently Prezza is spending all his time on Facebook on his Blackberry…
86. True, but the Tory eads before the banking crisis were very big as well. Any graph of Tory leads over the last 6 months would show a U-shape.
The banking crisis was Brown’s last chance. Experience was quite a card to pull with people worried about their savings. But trust has gone now. Tory leads similar to last summer don’t seem unreasonable.
87.Iain, you don’t visit enough these days!
Will we deciding a GE date in 2009/10 based on the date of Brown’s departure, rather than when they have to go?
I reckon that if Brown goes before it, the government have very little wriggle room before they would have to go to the polls. I still think its worth keeping the options open for Autumn 2009 and spring 2010.
98 - Or is he lining up the long talked of defection?
Obviously the Tories are hot favourites. Interested in what Labour odds for the next GE people think represents value.
Ave it gains Con Home….
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2009/01/beating-the-bnp.html#comment-146136824
98- That’s a great tale and I loved the telling.Mrs.T always used to say that FF was the only Labour MP for whom she had any respect.
87 - Iain.
I don’t disagree with much of your analysis, but can I ask you what you thought of Andrew Rawnsleys piece today which basically said that Cameron brought back Clarke because he is nervous about the poll leads being volatile, and Clarke could help with the Posh/lightweight problem that his private polling and focus groups have been showing.
The point made about Grayling was the one that interested me most.
ie.
Grayling was told to get himself ready for Work and Pansions in the new government and was telling friends as much, as Cameron wanted people who knew their brief in position.
The tightening in the polls seems to have led Dave to change tack a bit and Grayling, rightly, was promoted.
From a betting viewpoint - is there anything that might lead to a Labour recovery?
98.Wow! that is news to me.
98
Perhap Ken Clarke should go round and see GB
That was my pointe!!
110.
It won’t be the first time he has told a PM to go…
102. Christina, very kind. You are right. Only so many hours in the day, and to be honest, I kinda got the feeling that I wasn’t very welcome last time I contributed.
110- Why not give the job to Ave It ‘09 ?
103. I’ll believe it when I see it - but should it happen it would be absolute hammer blow to Labour.
112 hopefully it would be the last
113.Iain, you are always welcome here, its got to be the biggest political tent in the UK blogsphere.
113
Always welcome Iain, Its nice to see you contribute.
110. No the coup de grace has to be Mandy.
108. Aside from mass psychosis it’s hard to think of anything.
96 It’s a line of thought URW, but I still reckon it’s 2010.
98. Peter Oborne in his ‘Triumph of the Political Class’ reckons that politicos, regardless of party, have a greater loyalty and sympathy for each other than to their supporters or to the wider electorate.
I believe him.
It’s Us against Them.
110 & 114 - Whoever does it I hope they offer similar advice to that given by Frank Field:
It’s obvious, Prime Minister. It’s the person you’ve promoted to all these offices — Ed Balls.”
113. Most welcome - got to keep the Gay quota up!
ComRes appears to have been the last pollster to show Labour under 30% back in September. Now they are the first pollster to show them dipping under 30%.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention
They says things in life are circular, don’t they?
119. I actually think that if Brown loses the confidence of the PLP it will be Mandy who will give him the news that his time is up…..
More from the Field article:
“Field’s bête noire is Gordon Brown. He blames the then chancellor and now prime minister for kneecapping his welfare reforms. Blair, having asked Field “to think the unthinkable”, failed to back him against opposition from Blair’s jealous satrap. Blair at that stage, Field says, should have sacked Brown, not just for Field’s sake but to give Blair the opportunity and space to be an uninhibited PM. ….. Field is no more enthusiastic about Brown now that, as PM, his stock has risen. He argues that the money used to cut Vat by 2.5% would have been better spent thrown up in the air at Birkenhead market. He now believes the country is in such bad shape — mainly because the international money markets may balk at funding Britain’s vast debts — that parties should be preparing for a national government.”
I’d not seen that final comment there when I read this in the magazine, but noting the comments above about the timing of this piece and the Thatcher story, I’m beginning to wonder if this is the start of something…?
108. I guess there might be a fleeting Labour recovery to a certain extent if there are huge income tax cuts in a March budget. Not that they can sensibly afford them.
But even then, it would be likely to give a brief bounce which lasts a few weeks and if Brown is going to wait before a poll shows them ahead, then the chance of a damage limitation election will be lost.
Brown is cactus;there,I’ve said it,as someone who as only voted Labour or Lib Dem!
113 Well you’re welcome with me, Iain. What more could you want?!
119
It has to be Mandy if anyone. I cant see any of the current Cabinet line up except Mandy having the balls to tell Gordo its over.
Margarets hands shook most nights in Downing Street towards the end I thought.
I’ve heard that Frank Field story before, I think it was a religious thing, as it was between Field and Alton.
Tom Harris: In defence of the Lords - in his entire post he cannot bring himself to say “Labour peers”. What typical NuLab arrogance and hypocracy. It is time for them to leave the stage.
98. I dont believe it!
128. P4T Tax cuts might be alright for those working but I suspect the Budget will be more about saving jobs and getting people back to work. Of course, I have considerable doubts that any measures Brown might propose will make much difference.
128 - I don’t think Income tax cuts can have the same beneficial political effects as interest rate cuts. People don’t see interest rate cuts as zero sum.
131. Depressed yet Tim?
just been round to Frank Website not a bit of red to be seen!!
The Brown bounce was due to an unforeseen event for which Brown had a credible claim to competence, and he didn’t appear to be screwing it up. Another bounce would require yet another crisis, for which Brown also has a credible reputation, that he doesn’t then make worse.
Those are vanishingly small odds.
Labour will have more political credibility if they increase taxes in March.
87. Totally agree Iain, if he does poorly in the Euros on June 4th then the knives will be out, but who would want the job:)?
114
137 - It does look rather Conservative in style!
Lots of blue sky and green!
142 Will your smile be so broad after your FA Cup visit by Chelsea?
(I’m well chuffed with hosting Middlesbrough FWIW!)
141 the keys under the mat just let youeself in
108. The summer recess?
130.Mandy will have the balls to do it - but would he have the backing of the Cabinet, PLP and the wider party in any organised coup?
I keep going back to that Fraser Nelson article that Mike reminded us of a couple of threads ago. Regarding the old Scots tradition of choosing your own executioner. He is onto something there, I doubt that Mandelson will need to tell Brown to go, but Brown might go to him to facilitate his departure in some sort of dignified resignation.
137 & 142 - If it’s founded from the parliamentary allowance it shouldn’t appear to be party political which may explain the absence of Labour colours and logos.
83 - Also noteworthy is that since 21 December (with one exception) each successive poll has delivered a bigger Conservative lead, caused more by a drop in Labour support rather than the smaller rise in Conservative support. While different pollsters’ results are not directly comparable, that does suggest a steady and speedy trend away from Labour at present.
O/T but general.
Sometimes the obvious is the answer.
It seems obvious to me that the economy will get worse before it gets better.
It seems obvious to me that the economy will decide the outcome of the next election. It seems obvious to me that Gordon Brown is the only representative of the Labour Party who has any credibility over the handling of the econony. It seems obvious to me that his credibility is tarnished.
It seems obvious to me that the public are waking up to the depth of the hole we are all in and are aghast at the its depth. It seems obvious to me that the electorate are no longer convinced that holding onto nurse will avert something worse.
It seems obvious to me that Labour have missed their chance to ditch their leader. Serious times require serious leadership. Whether it is fair or not to blame Brown for the mess we are in, there is no available alternative in the Labour Party who improves Labour’s position as we enter an unavoidable economic recession.
It seems obvious to me that the Tories will win an overall majority at the next election, whenever that occurs. Probably May 2010.
I have bet accordingly.
It seems obvious to me.
According to Anthony Wells the ICM poll fieldwork should have completed today so their poll wil be out next week I assume:
His brief post on the Comres poll:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1820
I was not given the opinion poll by ComRes and so was not subject to the embargo. I heard that we were 15% ahead in a poll tomorrow from a good source and Twittered it. I did not know the percentage figures - just the 15pc lead. I have never broken an embargo.
I have spoken to Mike who has agreed to correct things as soon as he’s back at his computer.
PS Great news for the Conservatives. As I wrote on ConHome earlier today, the very real prospect of a landslide win has certain implications for how the Tories focus things in the months ahead…
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2009/01/the-tories-are.html
106 I seem to remember that she respected Eric Heffer as well despite their very different politics.
142. It makes you wonder why Field is a Labour MP. It’s interesting that for all the Blair-Brown ‘wars’ many of Brown’s enemies have come to his aid. Obviously Mandlson, Milburn and rumours of Blunkett and Clarke. I suspect Field is one of those, like Reid, who will never be reconciled to Brown as Prime Minister.
re 130 I can see Darling precipitating a crisis - bitter TV interview, hushed tones. “I’ve resigned because I am fed up with all the interference from next door. I have done my best to support the British economy through this crisis but every sensible thing I proposed has been vetoed because of the implicit criticism in it that my predecessor was consistently wrong.”
Corruption and chaos now engulf the government. Its over.
149 - I agree with all of that, and am betting accordingly also.
151 - I suspected as much. Bit careless from Mike!
100. Thanks for the tip, Robin. I enjoyed reading Prescott’s blog or Vlog as he calls it. No-one has left any comments yet.
137, 142: Good grief! Frank’s website is even more astonishing than that Sunday Times extract. Compared to other Labour MPs, there’s not a hint of corporate red and yellow, no Labour branding, no pro-Government/anti-Tory spin, it’s in New Tory blue sky and green throughout, and contains pieces on immigration, how Europe is a backward-looking concept that needs reform, and how we need English votes for English laws - along with various other pieces giving a constructive critique of government policy.
Maybe he defected some time ago and never told anyone?
(I found one solitary link to the Labour Party website…)
154. Indeed with Darling being in the eye of the storm it is plausible that he could precipitate the one sort of ‘crisis’ that Brown would not relish.
108. Yes, when people stop fearing for their incomes. I belive it was the 3 factors that enabled Labopur to come home in 2005. The other two being non-credible Tories and a bloke called T Blair.
The possible flaw with Iain Dales analysis is that yes there will be rumblings, there has to be, but from who? IOt needs something very strong to go. The prime time to dump Brown would be Autmumn to winter 2009 when, at least statistically, the economic situation should be at its aboslute trough and thus under a new leader show something akin to the green shoots just in time for a new leader to go to teh country in 2010.
As regards Frank Field, at heart that guy isnt a Tory. He’s a classic case of promoting old fashioned hard work and proper meritocracy with none of this nonsense middle class guilt mixed with envy cack that Labour seems to be full of, but he’s on the left.
A landslide means sloppy government. I really hope the Tories win but a ramshackle pointless opposition is bad for Britain.
A 15 point lead is at the lower end of where the tories need to be in order to win next time.
It appears they are enjoying a slight bounce in the polls but given the unrelenting economic bad news of the past week, it’s not particularly surprising.
166. One of 3 factors…
168 - lol. Keep up the good fight!
168 - Oh deary me, keep taking the medication!!
168 - ah, the old “tis but a flesh wound” defence…
168. lol. Thus speaks the voice of a true democrat.. and an absolute a*******:)
167 Hear hear. I’m all for a government that can be held in check by the opposition and waverers from their own side if needs be. Then maybe we can avoid some of the more outlandish decisions taken by Parliament over the last 12 years.
168 Gabble that is a great post, and hugely entertaining.
168, hehe, looks like Draper has a competitor for the Most Vomit-inducing Sycophant title (although I suspect Gabble is aware he’s writing satire).
Nice big lead. However, I do think that the polls are too volatile for any chickens to be counted. It will be interesting to see if the polls stabilise around this area, narrow again or if we see a return to the bonkers 20 point leads of last summer.
from the Comres website
Survey End Date CON (%) LAB (%) LDEM (%) Con Lead
ComRes/Independent 2009-01-25 43 28 16 15
Hat tip to mr Smithson
174 The majority IMHO needs to be large enough that it makes it nigh on impossible for Labour to win in 2014/5. The remedial work to sort the economy out will take at least two parliaments maybe three, Labour must not be in control. Therefore I hope for a majority of 125-130
156 - Hmm… so was Mike the first to break the embargo? I really don’t know what the ethics of this are, but suspect that maybe we shouldn’t have been reading the details on PBC just yet…
168 Gable, if you look out of the window into the garden you’ll see a flying saucer hovering above, piloted by Elvis. The Loch Ness monster is doing laps of the pond below.
167 - If Labour do go into opposition after the next election I think it’s pretty likely they’ll be as bad as the Tories were up untill Howard took over. They will have few big beasts to call on and are likely to get a lot of the flack for the state of the economy post the election itself.
168. Gabble we missed you, unless you’re Tim in disguise.
159.I can’t Darling having the cojones to do that, even if he is forced to resign. He might surprise me, but I don’t think he has it in him.
We all thought that Brown resigning would cause Blair real damage within the Labour party during their various spates. But this is the one occasion where Blair really had the chance to show real leadership and steel during his premiership when we had benign economic conditions, and he fluffed it. He would have survived as leader of the party and PM, and Brown would have continued his sniping from the backbenches never finding the courage to openly challenge him.
But if Darling resigned now, whether it was with quiet dignity or bitter recriminations, it would be hugely damaging to Brown both within the Labour party and with the electorate.
Meanwhile it’s Monday already on Guido’s site.
Other questions asked by Comres
Q. Putting your party allegiance aside, who do you trust most to steer Britain’s economy through the current downturn? All for BBC’s The Daily Politics except Jan 09
Sep-08
17 October 2009
17-Oct-08
24-Nov-08
Indy Jan 09
Brown/Darling
36%
40%
42%
47%
35%
Cameron/Osborne
30%
34%
31%
28%
33%
Clegg/Cable
5%
5%
7%
4%
7%
“I doubt whether the Government’s attempts to solve the crisis affecting Britain’s banks will work”
Agree – 49%
Disagree – 41%
“The Government has put in place the right solutions to the economic problems facing Britain”
Agree – 33%
Disagree – 58%
“The Conservatives were right to describe the 2.5% cut in VAT as just plain foolish”
Agree – 55%
Disagree – 39%
“The Conservative team around DC is lightweight”
Agree – 49% (48% in November)
Disagree – 38% (35% in November)
Re 168 I can see Gabble posting one day (not the next GE) should the Conservatives ever get a majority of 200 seats at a GE.
‘200 seat majority - they only just scraped through’
183.I can’t *see*
Gabble ‘A 15 POINT LEAD IS AT THE LOWER END OF WHERE THE TORIES NEED TO BE IN ORDER TO WIN NEXT TIME’
Gabble, I used to think you were a Labour troll. I didn’t realise you were actually a comedian.
168 - Not sure I agree with all that Gabble but fair play for keeping your end up all the same.
The Frank Field story re Thatcher has been around for some time - read this a good 2 years ago!
As far as Comres is concerned, it’s not accurate to see them as Labour’s best pollsters - tend to be particularly volatile and have quite often been Labour’s worst pollster!
168 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
185. For all Cable’s efforts those figures are very disappointing. Hard to understand quite why. I mean do over half of Lib Dem voters not think Clegg/Cable would be best?
168: Gabble dear, you do realise this is _before_ the recession really starts to bite? How will Labour be doing with another million unemployed, pensions ravished, a GDP decline unprecedented in any postwar G7 economy etc etc etc.
This is the bed Brown’s incompetence has made for us all. 15 points behind is only the beginning of his just rewards.
Conservatives up 53% to 22% in the Midlands. Are Labour going to get any votes outside Broxtowe?
Having been out of the country for a month, my feeling of why the polls have turned so quickly is that the “best prepared to weather the storm” comment has rebounded badly. The phrase was always a hostage to fortune and, whilst most of the posters on this board may have considered it b0llocks, the general mass of voters accepted it. What has happened is that these voters now also think it’s b0ll0cks and are punishing the Labour party accordingly because quite rightly they see the Government’s job as protecting the country from adverse external events.
What next? The next tipping point in the decline in Labour’s vote is when the media turns fully on the “boom and bust” phrase. The “boom” part of the ten years of economic growth will be described as a sham, driven by excessive public and private borrowing. At that point Labour will have little to show for their time in office. Brown is expediting this moment with his claims on inflation (repeated by Nick P this afternoon).
185. No doubt tomorrow’s BBC headline - “Increase in number of voters who believe Cameron’s team is lightweight”.
167.”A landslide means sloppy government. I really hope the Tories win but a ramshackle pointless opposition is bad for Britain.”
Agree David, how soon we all forget.
188 I think Gabble knew what he was doing, I give him great credit for writing it. Its very funny, we should be laughing with him…
You know you are in trouble as a Labour MP/ Lord / party / government (delete as appropriate), when the Guardian writes a whole editorial in which it not only slams you, but compares you to the Tories and says your actions were far far worse.
UKPR Polling Average
CON: 43
LAB: 30
LIB: 15
Conservative Majority = 84
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
I do like the Tory herd.
Four bad polls before Xmas and they poo themselves.
(Hague makes £200k on the spreads)
Four good ones afterwards and their mums are washing their pyjama bottoms for a different reason.
168. Keep up the good fight Comrade Gabble.
201
Tim
Is
Moron
?
178 MTF I’d be pleased enough (over the moon, dancing round the room) to see Stockton South and Hammersmith turn blue - and those are among the seats we need to just win a majority. A majority of over a hundred from where we are now?
168
Yes the tories will be crying into their beer having achieved a 7% swing with Com Res in 2 months.
As we all know, unless they poll at least 59% before Easter, a Labour landslide beckons and Kensington and Chelsea will need 3 recounts
203. One thing we can assert:
Tim
Is’nt
Montgomerie
I still believe the real lesson from history for Labour is the fate of the Progressive Conservatives in Canada in 1993.
After a century of being either the party of government or main opposition, the followig happened:
Going into the election 169 seats, 43.02% share of vote
Seats 2 Seat change −167
Percentage 16.04%
Swing −26.97%
Source Wikipedia
Where does Labour really go from here, everything else being equal? Their only hope is that Obama really is The One, he does fix the US within a year, so Labour don’t completely destroyed in 2010
185. Those ‘who do you trust to run the economy’ figures are far weaker than I expected for Cameron/Osborne… the shift is coming from people losing faith in Labour rather than gaining trust in the Conservatives.
208 - Twas ever thus.
203 - Nearly Ave it. I believe the M stands for microphallic though.
204
204 Its not impossible, but its somewhat unlikely, I just want feel sure that no Labour politician is anywhere near the levers of power for at least a decade. If the majority is 50 twice or three times, that’ll do me.
Election night 2009/2010 will be played out like the final episode of Blackadder goes fourth. “Whatever it was, I’m sure it was better than my plan to get out of here by pretending to be mad. I mean, who would have noticed another madman around here?”
208 - Cameron knows that.
He’s not stupid.
Smart tories will take no comfort in these latest polls. They will know that there is no real enthusiasm in the country for Camoron and his band of political inadequates.
Labour have got it right over the credit crunch and this, in the end, is what will tell in the polling booths.
208. IIRC, didn’t Mike point out that the Tories led Labour on this issue during the 97′ GE campaign?
Fewer than sixteen chaps in every twenty six believe in the myth of a Tory Overall Majority.
Keep the flag flying,Gabble.Those Tory Boys are all talk !
207 That’s my view as well. Having rebranded themselves in 1993/96 as ecomically competent and then bankrupting the country a second time, it will be a very hard sell to do it again.
201 tim, don’t judge others by your own low standards. Oh, and please don’t automatically assume that anyone who disagrees with you and your ilk, is a Tory.
207 - I don’t buy that analogy. The Tories did so badly in Canada to a large extent because of the rise of the Reform party. To replicate that you would need a new left wing party capable of winning swathes of traditional Labour seats. Don’t see it happening.
214 - Oh sweet Lord Gabble, ah you booked for the summer season at the end of the pier?
I am not surprised at anything I hear of Frank Field. He has always struck me as one of the most honourable MPs who puts the good of his constituents and the country before that of hiimself or his party.
I am convinced he will never cross the flor since he would feel no more at home with toeing the party line in the Conservative party than he does in the Labour party. Of course having said that I will probably now be proved wrong tomorrow.
Whilst I would liek to see almost every other Labour MP lose their seat, I would be very sad if Field lost his at the next election. We need more MPs like him from whatever party they might be affiliated to.
flor? I meant floor of course
Gabble, I’m just gong to ask you a few questions, ok?
What is the date?
Who is the Prime Minister?
Can you count backwards from 100 in 3’s for me?
222 - Been on the sherry?
The Com Res socio-economic group splits are interesting and (subsample caveats as ever) show that Labour is losing the working classes in a similar way that they did under Thatcher.
Con leads
AB +14
C1 +13
C2 +17
DE +15
216 - so what you are saying is that a clear majority believe that a Tory majority is likely
That is encouraging
221 There would have to be a political earthquake for FF to lose his seat.
Labour Frank Field 18,059 65.0 -5.5
Liberal Democrat Stuart Kelly 5,125 18.4 +5.6
Conservative Howard Morton 4,602 16.6 -0.1
Majority 12,934 46.5
Turnout 27,786 48.7 +0.4
Labour hold Swing -5.6
Infaltion
If any of you follow the gold price (and silver as well but slower), gold is saying that a lot of people think that is where their money is safe.
Now $900 an ounce and near its highs .(In sterling terms it is making All Time Highs).
No doubt we will see over $1000.
Gold miners are near their lows but rallying.
The FSEE is likely to make a new low c 3700 within 2-3 weeks.. and then rally strongly from my charts..(But it will end 2009 down)
All those supplementaries are pretty misleading anyway because they do just that mislead one into an inaccurate response viz
Aren’t all politicians b*******? produces a clear yes majority!
220 - Brighton’s West Pier?
SKY reporting Corus to axe 2,500 jobs in the UK. Can’timagine it will be a cheery monday morning in the bunker!
197. Good point re poss landslide - that’s in nobodys interests !! However this may be hard for labour to avoid now as I think cameron has had a good re shuffle which brings excelent balance to his a cabinet … And sadly for labour, they have little strengh in depth to respond ….
216 I won’t believe it until I see Cameron cycling to the Palace next May (or June), police outriders fore and aft and Official Car with change of clothes, BBC & ITN helicopters following his progress, BBC commentators breathlessly marking time by remarking on Mrs Cameron’s style, wondering if she’ll outshine Mrs O at their first meeting.
214 “Smart tories will take no comfort in these latest polls. They will know that there is no real enthusiasm in the country for Camoron”
The next sixteen months will more than put that right!
214 A couple of figures to sober you up from yesterday’s FT. The UK public borrowed 130 bn in 2007. They could not borrow anything like that amount in 2009 since the source of financing is not available (and it’s the foreign lenders who have left the UK and the wholesale money markets rather than UK banks not lending before you get snippy). Say the UK public borrow 30 bn in 2009, then that’s a shortfall of 100 bn which is crudely a 5-6% fall in GDP. How is this going to be replaced?
It’s not a banking crisis, the economy started shrinking in May - you cannot have growth in Q1 and zero in Q2 without some negative growth in Q2. It’s a retrenchment because the UK (public and private sector) cannot just keep borrowing and the whole boom was based on easy credit.
225. Looking across the breakdown of the poll, Conservatives lead in all but two groups. In the North, Labour still lead. In Scotland, the SNP are back in front.
226-It was meant to be discouraging.
The way they go on,the Tory Boys are talking as though they will win every Seat where they Field a candidate…..except Frank Field’s Seat obviously.
As a matter of fact, ten chaps out of every ninety two believe that Labour will sweep back with an Overall Majority next time.
Someone had to say it !
On a completely sidenote regarding PMQs (alert commenters will probably notice me repost it nearer the time ;)). I think Brown’s taking completely the wrong approach to Labour questions.
He’s still backward thinking of PMQs as how it looks to people watching all of it. Not the clips most people see.
Rather than have questions about whether he’s wonderful or fantastic that get ignored by everyone. He should get them to ask questions relating to the big issues but in such a way he can have someone write a good answer to them.
Then when Cameron/Clegg asks them in a prominent place of his answer he puts “I refer the Honourable member to my earlier answer” (or snide remarks along the lines of “had the hon. member been listening earlier” etc).
If any clips made it to the news where normal people might see it would cast doubt onto whether or not Brown has dodged the question since it might have been included in his (unseen by them) answer in the referred to question. Would also give him a crutch to lean on and give him a few extra seconds when he’s struggling to think on his feet instead of umming and arring as he often does.
Not just in terms of this but other areas it’s clear Labour and Brown are tactically far behind the other parties (especially Cameron’s Conservatives who have suddenly become very savvy in the awareness of what actually gets on the general public’s radar and how their party comes across as such).
Brown and Labour need to become far more streetwise in such matters. All their thinking needs a complete revolution in their PR approach as it’s now well out of date.
I’d like to see the Lib Dems improve in this area aswell, they are better than Labour but still well behind the Tories who like I said have suddenly become really really good at it. So many times I (humble being that I am) am impressed at their latest techniques from PR to campaigning (although a couple of Labour’s latest local campaigning groundgame tricks have been clever, this is not reflected in their airgame strategy).
224
That would be nice. Not for another couple of weeks I’m afraid.
A message to Patrick the West Ham fan
Your name change is one of the most interesting things of the whole night!!!
238
The problem is that when Brown goes on the telly, everyone can see the truth or otherwise of what he is saying via his body language/oral lack of skill. Its hardly a help, in fact its a huge hindrance. Few believe the spin any more.
Then when Cameron/Clegg asks them in a prominent place of his answer he puts “I refer the Honourable member to my earlier answer” (or snide remarks along the lines of “had the hon. member been listening earlier” etc).
Corporeal - it’s pretty hard to do with Cameron seeing as there is usually only one question before he stands up……
219 Max, Brown is so bad that core Labour voters could easily shift to the Libs, who at least have credibility with Vince Cable around. You’re right that the analogy isn’t a perfect fit, buts its no far away, especially with a hard core trad vote shift to the Libs. If I was a Labour MP, I’d be thinking about it in my rationale moments
238. Why not post that suggestion on one of Labour’s excellent websites. They’ve got loads. Pick your favourite !!
243. I thought Clegg was trying to appeal to left of centre voters in his Marr interview this morning.
237 Read in someone’s memoirs that one third of John Majors cabinet had bet privately during the last weeks of election that the Tories would just scrape through and keep office in 1997 - its the ones who bet with their hearts not their heads that fund the winners.
I can’t see Labour ditching Brown now. Labour doesn’t ditch its leaders; it never ditched Wilson, Foot, Kinnock.
It was totally out of character that Labour came so close to ditching Brown last year - that was a measure of how badly he was doing.
But it didn’t ditch him for a reason which shows how differently Labour operates from the Tories in these matters.
I don’t think Labour would ever ditch its leader simply because he was a disaster. Labour would want to be sure that it had a better alternative. When Milliband held up his banana, Brown was safe. Since there is not going to be a strong universally favoured pretender to the Labour crown this side of a Labour general election wipe out, Brown is safe for the duration.
224.Hopefully an excellent whisky!
233.Ted
242. Yes, but one is better than none. In the current climate make it a fairly general economic question so whatever Cameron asks it would be tangentially related to it and Brown could use the line. Even with little justification the point would be to let him use the line in every question if possible.
For the reasons I stated above. But also now I think of it it would make Cameron look like he was asking pointless q’s that’d been already answered.
It’s really the only good use of the planted questions. Currently they’re being tactically wasted.
“There has been no ‘boom’ and there will be no ‘bust’. Just 11 years of moderate growth to be followed by a relatively short period of moderate recession.”
– Gabble, October 26th 2008
243 - You maybe right but I’ve always been of the opinion that around 150-200 Labour seats are bomb proof and will be held regardless. Not seen enough evidence of a big shift in voters to convince me otherwise. Yet.
133-PtP-I hope is not too late to say I enjoyed your article some threads ago.
248 - flor is what gives sherry its flavour.
It was a very witty joke.
252 Thank you, Me. It is never to late to flatter me.
251 indeed Max, Labour are extremely unlikely to go below 200….
But thats ok we’ll just have the LDs instead!!!!!!!
247. I’ve been of that opinion up until the last few weeks and this week in particular. I feel there has been a bleak realisation this week how bad the situation is and that people are now getting angry. They are sick of hearing the Labour Government promise X million here and X million there when they know that there is no money other than borrowings.
For the first time, I believe Brown is really in trouble and I think there is now a chance that Labour might just get rid of Brown (he won’t go voluntarily) to save the party from total humiliation at the next election. I don’t believe all their former vote will move to the Conservatives but will split between Conservatives, Libdems, Greens, BNP and the Nationalist parties with a core remaining (what size is hard to gauge).
I get the feeling that people are starting to believe it’s time to man the lifeboats of ‘SS Titanic’ Brown. The economic iceberg partly of his own making has now holed him seriously.
168. If this is at the lower end of where the Tories need to be, theres plenty of time for them to get an even bigger lead. Perhaps they will have a 20% lead in February? Will that be big enough for you?
If somebody sees Bobajob, tell him I’d ‘like a word’ about some monies due.
MUHAHAHAHAHA. Feel my awesome poll predicting powers.
250 - Heres an idea, how about Labour MP’s asking the PM useful question, not just plants. I’m sure as Nick Palmer will confirm MP’s get a lot of concerns from constituents, how about asking the PM about some of those.
And while we are at, how about opposition MP’s asking similarly useful ones too, rather than childish figure pointing. You do get them every so often, and when Brown just say YES / NO / NO COMMENT, he actually looks worse than when than when opposition (especially Tories) poke fun at him.
Although, I doubt very much Brown will answer a sensible one, as he doesn’t answer anybodies questions, only provides answers to the ones he wanted asking.
One question that may make these opinion polls irrelevant, will there be a general election at all? Or will the CCA be used to put any election off due to the “economic emergency”?
258 what was your bet, Labour sub 30 in Jan?
247 “I don’t think Labour would ever ditch its leader simply because he was a disaster.”
But what when he was a disaster for Britain?
260 - Not a hope of them getting away with that!
Green Shoots:
“The chief executive of the National Association of Estate Agents, Peter Bolton King, said last night: “Our members reported a slight upturn in activity towards the end of December, with both buyers and sellers showing an increase in interest.”
“Furthermore, early indications are that the market has picked up significantly in January. If there is any chance that these green shootsof recovery are to take root, it is up to Mervyn King (Governor of the Bank of England) to live up to his promise to do everything possible to bring fluidity back to the market.”
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/81693/EXCLUSIVE-Greedy-banks-are-preventing-economic-recovery-
244. The point about Labour’s web presence is already made so often and well by far greater personages than I that I didn’t think I needed to add to it. Like few mathematicians begin proofs with 1+1=2.
260 then its COUP TIME!!!!
Lets round up all Labour MPs and put them in house arrest!!
250. Corporeal I disagree if Brown tried that one he would look no different to what he does at every PMQ’s. He already uses a condescending tone providing generic econmic lines when answering Cameron (teaching him lessons etc. etc.) I don’t see that what you suggest is any different.
Cameron’s repost is Brown never answers the question asked and I believe it is that that is resonating.
264 Gabble - just the 20% fall in house prices this year and -8% GDP growth…
266 - Easier to round up the Parliamentary Tory Party - They all used to be in the same House.
re 260 the Civil Contingencies Act will not be used to put off a general election. Brown needs to do nothing more than sit on his hands if he wants to avoid one.
247.I think that Brown will go before it ever came to a delegation knocking on his office door. Will he ask Mandelson to engineer his departure in the most dignified way that is possible in these circumstances.
Despite the size of the PLP over the last 12 years, its been like a herd of lemmings with just a few trying to fly the other way. Even back in the Autumn last year, plenty of anonymous briefings from different Cabinet Ministers threatening to go when some of the lower ranks broke cover, and there is still some dispute about there was ever a plan to do so.
They really have behaved in a very dysfunctional way. I remember reading one insider describing everyone cowering in the corner like children while their parents(Blair and Brown) shouted at each other. The most damage caused to the Labour party in the longer term will be the very way that Blair and Brown dominated and controlled everything, snuffing out the chance of anyone else to grow into a worthy leadership successor in the future.
You would think that Mrs Thatcher would have had the same effect, but she didn’t. There were some substantial figures who could have stepped into role of leader, but the fracturing of the Westminster party was the real problem by the end of the fourth term. Its only if Labour suffer a real drubbing at the GE that the Labour party might begin to resemble the Tories post 97′. But their real problem is a total lack of front bench talent with real balls right now.
Mike, could you check the source of post 255, I fear we may have a case of a poster being impersonated. Surely the real Ave it would never have come out with this statement:
“indeed Max, Labour are extremely unlikely to go below 200….”
259. That would be the ideal. I am of course speaking realistically, and from a purely strategical view. I do have ambitions to be in a job that requires such thinking in the future, so I like to test out my ideas on an informed audience. (If Labour start using this strategy I will be emailing Number 10 demanding a commision ;))
260 There aren’t enough troops or police available to deal with the outbreak of civil disobedience that would follow. Hmmm, maybe that’s the logic behind CSO’s and Tasers?
264. Greedy-banks-are-preventing-economic-recovery-
I wonder how many bank employees think they are preventing economic recovery, and whether the current offensive is going to make them more likely to vote Labour?
271. Perhaps he meant votes, not seats.
256 - I think the promise (or re-announcement) of spending b(m)illions more is a spent force of a tactic for Labour.
They have been doing that for 12+ years, and people really aren’t seeing the sort of level of increase in public services that all these billions were expected to enable (and should have produced). Doubled the spending on health and education, has resulted in margin improvements (Yes we could argue stats back and forth, but I think that is what the general feeling is).
Therefore, it is like more noise in the ether, Brown going on about a load more money thrown at something, people are just switched off to the actual amounts and very negative about if it will actually make any difference. Gone are the 97/98 days when people believed that yes this extra money will make a difference, and give it another 2/3/4/5 years it will filter through and public services will be much improved. People aren’t willing to give the government x more years to let this or that work its magic.
Is Gabble Gordon Brown? (Their names have a similarity, as do their lunatic opinions
Don’t get too excited about the Maggie/Frank Field story. It is an old story. I got the impression from some of the things he has previously said that his intervention was not surprising. They were on very good terms. They had shared friendship and a respect as back benchers which continued throughout her period in office. It was not the only time he gave her advice as a friend.
The thing about Maggie [and I am quoting Tony Benn here] is that she was quite clear about what she was about and people voted her in. There was no subterfuge. As such, the likes of Field and Benn might loathe her policies but did not neccessarily have a problem with her.
I could not see Frank defecting, but I could see him unashamedly helping the Tories on an issue by issue basis - I could also see him being a huge pain to us, on exactly the same basis.
That why he is respected.
254-PtP-I imagined that it was not too late!
280 Excellent post.
Anyone else watching ‘A Short Stay in Switzerland’?
A very emotive subject - but a classy piece of drama.
I hope it leads to a more informed debate on the topic
273 HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Dont worry it is me! Labour got 209 even in 1983 when it got 28%…
10 o’clock news (R4) “the Icelandic Minister of Finance has resigned, he said he was taking responsibility…”
Are you listening Alastair Darling? This is your chance to go down in history as a great man. Go now, and in your resignation speech tell us the truth.
280 - Don’t forget Field was a member of the Tory Party but left because of the racism and support for the South African Government amongst its members.
280.”I could not see Frank defecting, but I could see him unashamedly helping the Tories on an issue by issue basis - I could also see him being a huge pain to us, on exactly the same basis.
That why he is respected.”
Spot on SallyC, he is one of those rare MP’s that you might disagree with, but you do respect them. He would be a well intentioned and honest thorn in the side of any party he belonged too. Gordon Brown’s methods of intimidating colleagues meant that Frank Field really was like a wee lamb up against a hyena back when he tried to do something about welfare reform in the early days of this government.
Not sure what is going on at Daily Rant HQ. Until Clarke came back it really was bash the government over everything and anything, and then some they made up. Now, somebody at the Daily Rant really targeting anything Clarke has done or said, well ever.
Tory turmoil as Clarke rubbishes Cameron’s warning that Britain is on ‘brink of bankruptcy’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1127348/Tory-turmoil-Clarke-rubbishes-Camerons-warning-Britain-brink-bankruptcy.html
287.I have often thought that Frank Field was the Labour equivalent of someone like John Redwood.
288 - Perhaps Ken, like Dacre, just thinks Dave needs to grow up a bit.
284 - The difference now though is that the third party is better organised and the minor parties are likely to win seats in the Celtic fringes and take enough votes to tip the odd marginal here and there. I think that there is a significant risk of Labour being sub 200 in the right circumstances.
101 Friends in Liverpool, Labour councillors in nearby Knowsley, told me yars ago that Eric Heffer also had a fondness for Margaret Thatcher. He disagreed violently with her politics and ideologically they were poles apart, but at a personal level there was real respect even affection. Anyone else ever heard this.
292 didnt she go to his funeral???
292.I suspect that it might surprise us all if we knew just who had stayed in long term contact through genuine friendships struck up during their years in Parliament with Mrs T.
291 - The Tory vote fell in 1983.
There was a swing to the opposition.
290 Maybe Dacre’s still angling for a Knighthood? One last, desperate roll of the dice against Cameron by the Daily Hate.
288 Telegraph had same story - all those chats with Gordon and invitations to Chequers might be paying dividends for Labour’s spin.
Attempt to drive a split on Europe failed so find another.
296 - Of course he is. There’s no way he’s ever going to get anything out of a Cameron-led government, so Brown is his last hope.
Five at the top of this thread, all claiming to be First!…. is this a First?
Here’s a suggestion for you Mike - each of those posters wrongly claiming to be First! should be required to pay a £1 penalty towards PB’s social events. Whether such funds were to be applied towards “Editorial Conferences” held “regularly” in Primrose Hill or in sponsoring annual parties for the rest of us at the NLC would of course be entirely a matter for you to decide.
292 - Yes.
Big Christian thing.
296.The Daily Mail, like a few other newspapers, tends to be all over the place these days. But that is no bad thing, as David pointed out up thread, big majorities and poor opposition leads to bad government.
And so does a subservient and adoring media, remember, they built up an unquestioning myth about Brown’s economic prowess.
Can’t imagine two non-stories about Ken Clarke is going to balance out the anti-immigrant, anti-government, anti-everything hate that the Mail has been pumping out for years. Especially not in Brown’s mind.
292 - Same reason Field was drummed out/left the Tory Party - he saw the racism of its members in the sixties as being un-Christian.
301 - And The Daily Mail is suffering for it…
304 - I guess they think they just need to remain less of an utter shambles than the Telegraph, and they will be OK - which given the current state of the Telegraph under it’s current regime shouldn’t be too hard for them to achieve.
Just checked LabourList. Someone should tell them that the embargo deadline is passed, so they can publish their response to Labour falling below 30% in the polls.
286 That is beside the point tim. Benn has a great respect for her as a person and a politican and I doubt ever flirted with the idea of being a Tory.
Anybody else see 305 as a blank post and 306/307 not separated by a green line as per normal?
Tories, including Camoron, should get a grip and read this:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5580642.ece
308
310 - Yeah, me too.
310-Me
310 yes
307.I make the Telegraph an exception these days, its simple not a good newspaper anymore. It becomes too personal against individuals and nations.
310. Yes.
6 people in agreement on PB. Is this a record?
309 - I was giving you some background on Field.I don’t think the fact that he was a Tory is besides the point at all.Or why he left.
Thatcher loved Benn as he guaranteed her two election victories.
67. Labour will only win again when the party comes to understand the difference between a debate and fighting like ferrets in a sack. The Conservatives took until Cameron to move from the later to the former.
The answer is not surpressing internal debate. Remember how people took to the sight of the leadership campaign between Cameron, Davis etc? An actual debate between challengers?
296. Dacre is a long time Brownophile - look in the backnumbers of Private Eye. He is the original Tory Brownite (inside his own mind).
294. Benn is… perhaps not a friend, but on friendly terms. It was not uncommon among the Labour Party - they saw her as an honest enemy. There was/is a large group who actually pathalogically hate her, of course.
Browns problem with Tories seems to stem from those who have what he sees as the public school self confidence - which is one reason that she isn’t on his hate list.
318.I nearly made it 7, but thought that might be mob rule.
311. Gabble, you should have been on duty this morning
Bad News:
Davdi Smith in the Sunday times says we are not Iceland
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article5580642.ece
So we almost certainly are, given his Kaletsky-esque accuracy
by Jon C January 25th, 2009 at 8:41 am
299. Fine all those who claim to be first one credit under the Verbal Morality Statute.
Do the same for those who are rude to people in an unfunny way.
321. Sensible precaution. I’m sure 7 Pbers in agreement is mentioned in revelations somewhere.
318-Probably. I’m proud to be part of this record!
re 273. I’ve checked - it is genuine.
I’d be extremely concerned if RodCrosby also agreed.
326 - Mike, If I were ComRes or the Independent, I wouldn’t be too pleased that you had broken the embargo, now you’ve conceded that Tim Montgomerie was blameless. Don’t they also deserve an apology?
319 It’s no surprise tim that you seek an explanation from the Party-line handbook for Woollie Headed Sheep, which demonstrates no understanding of individual principles or appreciation of personal integrity and which is devoid of any ability to see good in anyone that doesn’t follow ‘the handbook’.
Prescott’s and Campbell’s new blog have it called spot on. Go and get 4th place!
324. I agree.
Shall I set the freezer to defrost?
329 - That seems to be a meaningless paragraph.
332. Did you get tripped up by the word “integrity”?
328 It has become a muddle headed mix up but it’s a one off and the circumstances in which the mix up occured don’t show bad faith on anyone’s part.
331. John Spartan or Simon Phoenix?
332 I rest my case.
311. Hmmmmm…. Another economic journalist pretending they know what they’re talking about. I wonder what this “character” was saying in summer 2007? Did he see any of this crisis coming?
335 - Simon Phoenix looks a lot better.. and everyone has a soft spot for a bad boy!
‘a ramshackle pointless opposition is bad for Britain.’
Perhaps, but a ramshackle pointless government such as we have now is infinitely worse. Now isn’t the time to be agonising over Labour’s fate in opposition. It’s the time to put the boot in hard, over and over again, until the political corpse that is New Labour stops twitching.
We can now be almost certain that Labour is going to lose, but what for the Party after Brown? I know they all want to think the best, that they can somehow win the next election, but I really doubt it. Not just a question of a new leader, but what direction? Virtually all their funding is coming from the Unions, but they are not the popular force they were. The current coalition of the client state and corporate interests is a total contradiction and can’t last. And surely they’ve got to distance themselves from the sort of authoritarian politics popular under Brown.
The Lib Dems are a natural rival to Labour (calling for fairer taxes, standing up for human rights) but they can’t dislodge labour if they keep a conservative strategy of prioritising their current seats. If that’s what they want, what exactly is their ultimate ambition? To remain the 3rd Party in perpetuity?
326
LAB GAIN EVERYTHING - oops Mike you had better check again!!!
340. I’d love to see the Lib-Dems rise up and take back their rightful place as the number two party of British politics. Labour is a 20th century fad. Its had its day. Mandy, Blair and friends managed to string its life out slightly by its transformation into New Labour, but in the end the mask has slipped and we can see all that all along New Labour was simply Labour. Taxing and spending like theres no tomorrow and brigning the country to its knees. It would surely deserve its fate of slipping away into political obscurity and the nations returned to its old Tory/Liberal roots!
Alas, I just don’t think the Lib’s have it in them to replace Labour. I don’t think they have the desire. They quite like being able to oppose without the responsibility of ever having to form a government. Shame.
340, what about…
Lab gain P45s?
Thats to 339 of course.
286. But maggie had more influence over South Africa, by remaining on good speaking terms, then any other nation. She said this about south africa:
“there is nothing to be gained by parading our differences. What we do all agree is that apartheid is an utterly repulsive and detestable system and it must go.”
PK Botha admitted that her private correspondence urging mandela to be released and apartheid to end was more influential in the party ten dozens of un resolutions, and the condemnation of other nations. His own direct quote:
“She did more to change apartheid than the Labour Party or any other party in Britain… In private conversations, as well as in letters exchanged between herself and PW Botha (then prime minister of South Africa), she consistently made it clear to us that she was firmly opposed to apartheid and any form of racial discrimination,” he said. ..She consistently appealed to us to release Mr Mandela… When you spoke within the old National Party (NP) ranks, United Nations resolutions and the hostility shown by the Soviet Union and others had no impact. But when you said, ‘I must warn you, this is what President Reagan told me, this is what Mrs Thatcher told me, these are people who are well disposed towards us and if they say this we’ve got to change,’ I could use their views to persuade the conservative sections within the NP to accept change.”
337. All I wanna do in bury New Labour up to their necks in s&*^, and let them think happy-happy thoughts forever.
Things could get very messy for Labour tomorrow.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jan/25/lords-house-commons-corruption-allegations
Evening all.
Another day, another stonking poll for Cameron. Of course, we need to recognise that ComRes seems to produce more volatile polls than other pollsters, but the overall message is now 100% clear: the Tories have a large and consistent lead. Kudos to Cameron and Osborne for keeping their heads when all around were losing theirs, back in November.
I agree with Iain Dale at 90 (“I wonder how long it will be before we hear the sound of Labour leadership rumblings. Give it until March. “), and others like Peter the Punter who have made similar points. Rumblings there will certainly be, but I still think the rumblings will probably not lead to action, for all the reasons we’ve explored many times (difficulty of the process, no obvious alternative candidate, the fact that changing leader would look like panic and kill Labour’s ‘experience’ line). In a way, from the Conservatives’ point of view, it doesn’t much matter now; Labour are stuffed either way.
In betting terms: the odds on Brown being deposed should now shorten, but I think this is a shortish-term trade rather than one to stay with in the expectation it will actually happen.
But overall, I think stjohn at 154 has it right. What he calls ‘obvious’ is really clear thinking. So when URW at 237 points out that “ten chaps out of every ninety two believe that Labour will sweep back with an Overall Majority next time.”, what he is really telling us is that political punters bet with their hearts; which is of course a money-making opportunity.
341. The NUM used to be described as the life-blood of the Labour movement. After all they could turn the lights off if they wanted to. But they can’t now. Unless there is a big rise in trade union membership there simply isn’t room in British politics for one of the two biggest parties to belong to the Unions. Blair realised that. Maybe some younger people in the Party do as well. My guess is that a lot of the bright young people who once would have joined labour are more attracted to the Lib Dems. What about Gordon Brown’s politics is going to get people to join?
346 - Do you think we will get a Brown press conference like the one over the Abrahams fiasco.
346, I generally loathe the -gate suffix, but Erminegate does sound quite nice.
Also, it doesn’t help that one of the peers is called Snape. What next, Lord Voldemort accused of corruption?
339 Frank Booth, regarding the LDs, yes I agree that they are natural rivals to Labour, they came from the same movement. Therefore with Labour so weak why are the LDs doing so badly?
When the Conservatives dropped below 30% approval levels in the 90s the LDs did not use up their limited media time with attacks on Labour. Instead they went after the weaker party then which was the Conservatives.
Contrast that with this period where Labour has been weaker for most of the past 2 years and yet the LDs still use up their limited time by attacking the Conservatives in the media.
The LDs are still not following the strategy Clegg set out more than 6 months ago and are suffering in the polls.
347, I’d dispute the consistent nature of this. The big poll leads may turn out to be consistent, but it’s too early to say.
344 - very interesting.
Fields problem with the Tory Party and Apartheid goes back to 1964.
350 - Well they are already getting money from JK..
339.I wonder if it will be a tale of two results for the Libdems on GE night?
They might do better against Labour in some parts of England, but then go onto have a bad night in Scotland, and possible in Wales? And despite their actual vote share overall, they simple do not manage to make up losses to the Tories with gains from Labour, losing out to the SNP and other parties?
346 Good article. Nice title - ‘Erminegate’. Serves to reminds us of ‘Lobbygate’ and Drapers fall from grace.
349 - What and announce another non-investigation by the old duffers committee of the butcher, the baker, and the candle-stick maker to report back “swiftly” (like the Abrahams one that never has reported back).
341 GIN, for the LDs to realistically replace Labour they would have to re-focus away from the South to the North. That way they may pick up 30 to 40 seats to replace the 15+ that they are almost guaranteed to lose anyway to the Conservatives.
If the LDs did get to 80 at the next GE, a Labour party reduced to 150 or less would start to come into their sights.
But as we all know they are still spending their few pounds in the South.
348. The unions have a good future - if they adapt to the post industrial conflict world. Providing insurance, legal advice etc. are things that many, many employees want and need.
They need to ditch the Labour Party.
347 (and others). I agree that it is hard for Brown to be pushed out, but there is still a chance (though less than last summer) that he might be unable to face the disgrace of leading the party into a massive election defeat, and so takes the honourable route of resignation of grounds of ill health. At the moment it looks as though he is so deluded that he won’t believe massive defeat could happen; but the mix of economic and political pressure could get so great even he cracks.
From the squaddies of ARRSE:
http://www.arrse.co.uk/cpgn2/Forums/viewtopic/t=114748/start=0.html
It’s a poll over whether or not the BNP should be banned. Check the third option, presently with 41%.
347 Hi Richard
As a graduate of The School Of The Bleeding Obvious I have to concur with the erudite StJohn. There are two minor caveats which you can probably guess. First, there is a possibility, no more, that Brown may be deposed early, all the difficulties you recite notwithstanding. Secondly, things could get so bad that public pressure for a GE becomes irresistible and it therefore takes place in 2009 rather than 2010.
These two possibilities are, I stress, not probabilities, but you couldn’t safely rule them out.
Otherwise, I am in total agreement with your good self and, of course, His Saintliness.
357 - Yeah something along those lines.
360. How to actaully push him out? Unions pull funding? - he could carry on. Minister tell him to resign? - ignore them. Opinion polls? - ignore them.
He could even ignore a vote of no confidence in Parliment - it is only a conention that the PM resigns after loosing one….
But it will not come to that. No one in the Labour Party wants to bring down a Labour Government. The danger of going down in history as the betrayer is too great. Brown would spend the rest of his days telling everyone that he could have won if the treacherous barstewards hadn’t stabbed him in the back…..
So, he will not face a vote of no confidence. And nothing else can remove him - except himself.
Then again - how will Brown the imovable face the unstoppable defeat?
358.Because the Libdems were beneficiaries when the Conservative party went into electoral meltdown, we forget UKIP etc. I wonder if the choice of Clegg and a general decision to protect those seats where the Conservatives are a real threat will rebound on them big time. There is a real air of complacency around them, particularly with regards the incumbency factor, and the idea that they will simple gain from Labour where they lose to the Tories.
Are the Libdems underestimating the threat of the BNP in some area’s where they might expect to gain on Labour? The Labour party are taking this threat seriously, yet the Libdems might yet suffer if they don’t?
331, I agree the Lib Dems would be best off trying to replace Labour, but attacking the Conservatives might well help with that, done the right way. Demonstrating that they’re best at fighting the Conservatives could attract the anti-Tory vote to them.
Also, what are the chances of defections from Labour to the Lib Dems? A few of those, and they would start looking like a serious threat to Labour.
364 - I think if he tried to ignore a confidence motion he would be on a hiding to nothing.
365 - I think all research shows that the BNP are far less likely to attract former LD voters than those of any other party, so a rise in BNP support is likely to drain their rivals and help them.
364 - Brown is never going to accept defeat with good grace.
I just don’t see him making a dignified exit - no matter what mechanism is used (losing a vote of no confidence or losing an election) - he will do what he always seems to do and that is go further into denial.
It will be a bigger sulk than Ted Heath
362.PtP, Brown will go before he is pushed. To fight on as other leaders did would require some personal courage, something Gordon lacks. Brown and his own political arse first, second and last. The Labour party will be the footnote at the end.
He will worry more about his own exit rather than the state of the Labour party on election night.
360 Perhaps the most remarkable thing about Gordon Brown’s tenure as Prime Minister has been the wild gyrations in his apparent popularity. Newly minted as PM, he was feted for standing up to the horsemen of the apocolypse in the summer of 2007; derided for the election that wasn’t in autumn 2007; dead man walking in the summer of 2008; “Saviour of the World” by autumn 2008; looking unsure by the winter; and could be unsustainable as leader by summer 2009.
There is only one way Brown is going to leave Downing Street and that is foaming at the mouth, wearing a jacket that fits snugly and fastens down the back.
Th Lib Dems are in poor shape here in Wales and I just cannot see them making any progress, indeed I can see them losing what seats they have got.
Plaid as well are not exactly setting the place on fire so the only gainers out of all this come the GE will be the Tories.
371 - I think that says more about the schizophrenic media than Brown!
368.Tim, the Libdems will be need disaffected Labour voters, but they might still choose to abstain or go elsewhere if the Libdems don’t appeal.
Unless I’m reading it wrong it seems odd that in the poll only 21% of people who think of themselves LibDem think their men Nick Clegg and Vince cable would make the best team to deal with the UK’s economic crisis. Especially given the media’s veneration of Vince as an economic guru.
Labour MPs who would lose their seats in those poll (assuming Scottish breakdown reflects Scotland) with notables in bold.
Alan Campbell - Tynemouth
Alan Simpson - Nottingham South
Alan Whitehead - Southampton Test
Albert Owen - Ynys Mon
Alistair Darling - Edinburgh South West
Andrew Dismore - Hendon
Andrew Mackinlay - Thurrock
Andrew Miller - Ellesmere Port and Neston
Andrew Slaughter - Ealing Central and Acton
Andrew Smith - Oxford East
Andy Reed - Loughborough
Angela Smith - Basildon South and East Thurrock
Ann Cryer - Keighley
Ann Keen - Brentford and Isleworth
Ann McKechin - Glasgow North
Anna Snelgrove - Swindon South
Anne Begg - Aberdeen South
Anne McGuire - Stirling
Barbara Follett - Stevenage
Ben Bradshaw - Exeter
Ben Chapman - Wirral South
Betty Williams - Aberconwy
Bill Olner - Nuneaton
Bill Rammell - Harlow
Bob Blizzard - Waveney
Bob Laxton - Derby North
Brian Jenkins - Tamworth
Celia Barlow - Hove
Charles Clarke - Norwich South
Chris Mole - Ipswich
Chris Ruane - Vale of Clwyd
Christine McCafferty - Calder Valley
Christine Russell - Chester, City of
Claire Curtis-Thomas - Sefton Central
Claire Ward - Watford
Clive Efford - Eltham
Colin Burgon - Elmet and Rothwell
Dan Norris - Somerset North East
Dari Taylor - Stockton South
David Borrow - Ribble South
David Chaytor - Bury North
David Crausby - Bolton North East
David Drew - Stroud
David Kidney - Stafford
David Lepper - Brighton Pavilion
David Taylor - Leicestershire North West
David Wright - Telford
Des Browne - Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Desmond Turner - Brighton Kemptown
Doug Naysmith - Bristol North West
Eric Martlew - Carlisle
Fabian Hamilton - Leeds North East
Frank Doran - Aberdeen North
Gareth Thomas - Harrow West
Gavin Strang - Edinburgh East
Geraldine Smith - Morecambe and Lunesdale
Gillian Merron - Lincoln
Gisela Stuart - Birmingham Edgbaston
Gordon Banks - Ochil and South Perthshire
Gordon Marsden - Blackpool South
Gordon Prentice - Pendle
Greg Pope - Hyndburn
Gwyn Prosser - Dover
Helen Southworth - Warrington South
Howard Stoate - Dartford
Ian Austin - Dudley North
Ian Cawsey - Brigg and Goole
Ian Gibson - Norwich North
Ian Pearson - Dudley South
Jacqui Smith - Redditch
James McGovern - Dundee West
James Plaskitt - Warwick and Leamington
James Sheridan - Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Jamie Reed - Copeland
Janet Anderson - Rossendale and Darwen
Janet Dean - Burton
Jim Cunningham - Coventry South
Jim Fitzpatrick - Poplar and Limehouse
Jim Knight - Dorset South
Jim Murphy - Renfrewshire East
Joan Humble - Blackpool North and Cleveleys
John Hutton - Barrow and Furness
John Mann - Bassetlaw
John Smith - Vale of Glamorgan
Jon Cruddas - Dagenham and Rainham
Jonathan Shaw - Chatham and Aylesford
Judy Mallaber - Amber Valley
Julie Morgan - Cardiff North
Kali Mountford - Colne Valley
Karen Buck - Westminster North
Katy Clark - Ayrshire North and Arran
Kelvin Hopkins - Luton North
Kerry McCarthy - Bristol East
Laura Moffatt - Crawley
Linda Gilroy - Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Linda Riordan - Halifax
Lindsay Hoyle - Chorley
Liz Blackman - Erewash
Lynda Waltho - Stourbridge
Madeleine Moon - Bridgend
Margaret Moran - Luton South
Mark Lazarowicz - Edinburgh North and Leith
Mark Todd - Derbyshire South
Marsha Singh - Bradford West
Martin Caton - Gower
Martin Linton - Battersea
Martin Salter - Reading West
Mary Creagh - Wakefield
Michael Connarty - Linlithgow and East Falkirk
Michael Foster - Hastings and Rye
Michael Foster - Worcester
Michael Wills - Swindon North
Mike Hall - Weaver Vale
Mike O’Brien - Warwickshire North
Mike Wood - Batley and Spen
Nick Ainger - Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
Nick Palmer - Broxtowe
Nigel Griffiths - Edinburgh South
Parmjit Dhanda - Gloucester
Patrick Hall - Bedford
Paul Flynn - Newport West
Paul Truswell - Pudsey
Phil Hope - Corby
Phyllis Starkey - Milton Keynes South
Robert Marris - Wolverhampton South West
Roger Berry - Kingswood
Rosie Cooper - Lancashire West
Russell Brown - Dumfries and Galloway
Ruth Kelly - Bolton West
Sadiq Khan - Tooting
Sally Keeble - Northampton North
Sarah McCarthy-Fry - Portsmouth North
Shahid Malik - Dewsbury
Shona McIsaac - Cleethorpes
Stephen McCabe - Birmingham Selly Oak
Stephen Pound - Ealing North
Sylvia Heal - Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Tom Levitt - High Peak
Tony McNulty - Harrow East
Tony Wright - Great Yarmouth
Vernon Coaker - Gedling
361 - 3rd option works for me
373. That’s what I find so hard to understand. An awful lot of not-natural-Tory-voters shall we say are abandoning Labour. I still think people are stuck in this 2 party consensus. I thought with the Lib Dem progress in local government that would have changed.
370 - I would say so in the past, but more I hear of Brown’s public outings the more deluded he sounds. I think he really does think that he is in control, doing the right thing etc etc, and that all the criticism and scandal going around him is just a distraction from getting on with the job. Thus, I think it will be kicking and screaming that he goes. Wouldn’t surprise me if he end up like Red Ken turning up in the public gallery, following people around and of course being on the Beeb every week saying “if I was still in charge….”.
The more Brown suspects disloyality, the more he will cut himself off. He will lock the door and stop talkng calls from everyone other than Balls - and Obama!
367. But it won’t come to a confidence vote. The whole “professional” part of the Labour Party (everything above the voluntary party) is an anti-Tory machine. That’s all they are - just not the Tories. Voting against Brown would be voting *with* the Tories.
Precisely because they have abandoned everything else, they will cleave to this to the bitter end.
371. This is all mainly driven by the media. Its another sign of how wild and schizophrenic our OTT media have become.
372.Don, you underestimate him and his personal survival instincts.
If you had three choices, which would you choose if you were Brown and you knew that you were heading to meltdown GE result?
a)Be seen to resign on health grounds at a time of his choosing.
b)Be pushed out as Maggie was in a messy coup.
c)Stand on the steps of 10 Downing Street in front of the world, departing after an humiliating defeat for your party without even getting that one GE mandate as Major did.
Front Pages
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Mondays-Papers—Newspaper-Front-Pages-For-January-26-2009/Media-Gallery/200901415210117?lpos=UK_News_Left_Promo_Region_0&lid=GALLERY_15210117_Mondays_Papers_-_Newspaper_Front_Pages_For_January_26%2C_2009
Scottish sub-sample -
SNP 32%
Labour 28%
Conservative 21%
Liberal Democrats 15%
Extremely small sample of course, but for what it’s worth that’s the third in a row that’s failed to show a Labour lead.
Before I go to bed I’d like to end further discussion on Brown delaying a GE after May 2010. Worldwide, any government attempting to prolong itself illegally has to be able to rely on the support or at least acquiescence of the Armed Forces. Enough said! Goodnight all
Re the media and Brown.
The positive periods have been media driven [followed by the polls]. The troughs have been poll driven [the media have followed ].
381. Will Brown still be rining by “The End” though? Sooner or later he’s going to realise Browns a loser and then he’ll keep his distance so as not to be tainted by any of Browns unpopularity.
I agree though, Brown will gradually become more and more withdrawn and cut off from his party and the world. He’ll cut a lonely figure and down in that bunker, all alone, left to contemplate all his failures, he may just go slightly mad….
Interesting not that much coverage on the front pages of the scandal.
However, interestingly, and I can’t see properly so I may be wrong, but it looks like the Guardian have some sort of graphics titled “road to ruin”. That doesn’t sound like a glowing endorsement of the government.
358. The problem for the LDs in changing focus from south to north is that it would probably mean sacrificing a number of sitting MPs: the good of the party is obstructed by the advantage of a number of significant individuals. But as they belong to the nice party, I’m sure they’re being honourable and telling Mr Clegg to do what is good for the party as a whole.
381. Will Obama still be ringing by “The End” though? Sooner or later he’s going to realise Browns a loser and then he’ll keep his distance so as not to be tainted by any of Browns unpopularity.
I agree though, Brown will gradually become more and more withdrawn and cut off from his party and the world. He’ll cut a lonely figure and down in that bunker, all alone, left to contemplate all his failures, he may just go slightly mad….
The way the Independent are presenting it makes it look far worse for Labour.
Con 43% (+4)
Lab 28% (-6)
LD 16% (-)
Other 13% (+2)
Note, I am a Lib Dem member but this is speculation not based on any knowledge of the party’s inner structure. Just a theory I’ve built up.
339. The problem we have is that we are currently only viable in certain areas based on where we have boots on the ground. The most important factor in any seat’s Liberal potential is imho what the local LD party is like. It’s fine saying ‘we should concentrate on this and just let these seats go’ but that’s totally impractical. Not even Lib Dem activists will just shift across country based on political potential.
And dropping certain seats is a slap in the face to local activists you need for other elections, donations, membership fees, and for the organisation in the area for when the seat becomes viable again. You do need to move resources, but not go all out and cut them off. A lot of Labour held seats are not necessarily viable this time but might be next time.
Currently we are the third party, and there’s a lot of memories in the party of when we had tiny MP numbers and hence a reluctance to give up any seat at all. We need to re-spread ourselves around the country, make us a truely national party again competing everywhere. Once we have local structures in place everywhere we can make British politics far more interesting.
Realistically what we have to aim for is a case of 2 steps forward, consolidate, 1 step back, and then look for the two steps again. We are back in decent numbers for the first time in quite a long time. So I think understandably there’s a priority on not losing so many that we’re relegated back down to the level of the nats etc.
387. But he could do it legally. It’s the one thing he couldn’t do with the Parliament Act, of course, but he could simply create hundreds of Labour life peerages.
I’m not being serious of course, but in theory it’s possible!
366. One possible scenario is that part of the Lib Dems fuses with New Labour to form a new SDP, while other elements drift off to the Tories and the Greens. Far left elements of Labour will form a rump socialist movement possibly allied with the Greens. So neither of the two left wing parties will survive in its current form.
386.Red Meteor, I cannot take these small samples seriously. The Conservatives ping pong between anything from about 11% to one recently that had them is tied first place with Labour on 28%, with the SNP 1% behind!
Now I know that I am the ever optimistic Scottish Tory, but even I didn’t buy that one!
246 (Ted) I talked to a Tory cabinet minister in the run up to 97. It was strictly off record stuff, he told me they were going to win with a small majority. He was absolutely convinced - no nose touching, no eyes flicking to the left. I told him they would be slaughtered. He loked at me as though I had said some stuff about moons, green cheese.
371 The media take on Brown has definately been all over the place up to now. But I truly doubt they will risk trying to pump him up again before the next election. The lazier narrative is to start branding him as “the wrong man for a crisis” or such-like - which I feel they are close to doing - and that perception is not going to be turned over by May 2010. Once Cameron looks inevitable as the next PM, he will be given enough support to get him over the line.
I believe that we are looking at the inevitability of a Cameron Govt. The flip side of that is the inevitability of a Brown defeat. Whether Labour tries to change that outcome is for them. But Brown won’t be able to do so, regardless of how much borrowed money he tries to throw around. He no longer has the credibility.
397 This late at night you can dream……
393. LOL! They shouldn’t be portraying it like that. Naughty!
The Guardian headline is a worry. Another rescue package in the pipeline. Darling prepared to borrow billions more. Will this borrowing binge ever end?
373. What are you basing on this on? I don’t think any of our Welsh seats are under threat. We may be an election to early for Newport East and a couple of others, but in the long term I think S. Wales especially could become fairly liberal territory. Especially at local government.
Wildly off topic, but some PBers might be entertained by this
http://machiavellitheprince.blogspot.com/2009/01/politician-sampled-dance-music-and.html
Minor correction to a post above - ComRes is actually from the21st-22nd. Finding consolation where we can, I note that 40% of *Conservatives* consider Cameron’s team lightweight (this was just after Clarke was appointed, so perhaps it highlighted rather than solved the perceived problem?).
The ‘others’ figure turns out to be a Green surge (I think) to 3%, with the SNP on 3% too.
401 - It is a huge worry, and if it is confirmed then the £/$ will start heading south even more rapidly!
Front pages
404. Now Nick, you know Mike (and Anthony Wells) tell us to pretty much ignore all the sub questions.
400. Sally, :D.
347 Richard - I agree, stjohn has it dead right at 154, but when he says he has “bet accordingly”, I wonder whether he is simply referring to the Tories winning the most seats or an overall majority, where the odds are already very short, especially when one might have to wait 16 m,onths to collect. As perhaps the greatest exponent of the log shot on PB.com (remember him backing Villa at 329-1), I would expect him to be more ambitious.
Has anyone yet made a serious study of those currently Labour held seats which are around 150th-200th down the Tories’ hit list. If there really is a prospect of them winning a three figure overall majority, this is the sort of territory where they will need to be winning seats and there must be some real value there somewhere.
397. Christina, I used to wince when Stuart put the sub-samples up, but when Mike based on entire thread on a Populus Scottish sub-sample in November showing an improbable Labour lead of 30%, I suddenly lost all inhibition about drawing attention to other sub-samples showing a rather different picture.
Of course, the reason for the massive fluctuation in the figures is simple. The ComRes website very helpfully provides a margin-of-error calculator, and even for YouGov-style Scottish sub-samples of 180 the MOE is over 7%. For ComRes sub-samples of just 60, the MOE shoots up to 12.5%. And, of course, even that assumes the figures have been properly weighted, which as I understand it is not always the case.
384. Isn’t it possible that some strings could be pulled and a nice position be found for Brown elsewhere? “Oh, look, you’ve saved us all, Gordon, thank you so much, but look at all those Africans that need saving too! Don’t let them down!” That sort of thing?
I can’t imagine that it would be easy to shift him on health grounds, even legitimately–”I’ll die in harness, that will show all of them,” etc.
394.Good post Corporeal.
re 387 but Brown would be doing nothing illegal; he would not need to amend any laws or declare any states of emergency for it to happen.
370 That’s the way I’m inclined to see it, Christina. If things get that bad, a way will be found to lever him out. It’s not clear though if, when and how this will happen o it’s a fairly risky betting proposition. Otoh, if the odds are decent….
re 395 no need to use the Parliament Acts nor create new peers either.
414 - I think the calculation though is a nightmare. Because there is the damage that levering him out will do against an upside that might be non-existant, and with every day that passes the two halves of the calculation change in ways that are unknowable.
398. I was in CCHQ on the night - and that was the opinion of everyone I spoke to.. a narrow, narrow victory….
A major difference now is that the polls are better calibrated and proven. The London Mayoral election buried (again!) the idea that polls against you can just be argued away….
So, everyone apart from Brown (at least) will believe they are heading for defeat. What does *he* believe?
415. How so? Or was the discussion Sekundra was referring to merely about the possibility of Brown delaying until June 2010? Of course that would be perfectly legal.
410.Red Meteor, at the end of the day, would you bet money on those subsamples?
At the risk of being a bore, I think that election night in Scotland is going to be a roller coaster for all the parties, with surprise wins, losses and holds. I hope that we do get some sort of regular polling of larger samples in Scotland before the GE.
416 Tricky call isn’t it, James! Still, that’s what makes betting fun.
I backed a 2009 defenestration when it was 4/1. I’d kind of given up on it but maybe too soon. Maybe 4/1 wouldn’t be a bad price now.
Wonder what Sidney will be showing in the morning?
416. I can’t see him quiting or holding an election he might lose unil the last possible day. Then again I can’tsee him oing into that election.
It’s the immovable vs the unstoppable.
Perhaps the Mrs Brown option?
414 PtP.
Your references to Blue Harpies [your poem] were not lost on me.
Fortunately for you pb is quite crowded at the moment - otherwise I might take my slipper to you.
421 Indeed, Dr Cocteau. Perhaps Sarah will have a word in his shell-like.
409. Peter, here is the list
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/conservative-target-seats
Some of the seats for which there are markets have already been discussed, such as Edinburgh South West (probable Tory gain) and Aberdeen South. Of course Crewe and Nantwich is also on the list
It has been suggested that we pool information about various PBers bets on the seats market to see if we can derive a “wisdom of the crowds” result.
422 “I might take my slipper to you.”
Promises, promises, Sally….
425 Be careful what you wish for - they have a heel.
420 - Too tricky for me, hence why I don’t bet!
Brown right now, will be thinking that if he can turn the economy around by 2010, a gratful British nation will reward his with another term.
Now, the idea that the economy will be turning around by 2010 must be getting more and more shakier, but I’m sure he will still believe its possible things could start to improve early next year. So he’ll he’ll hang on. By the time its clear no real improvement is coming it’ll be too late. He’ll be stuck having to take the hit.
419. Christina, I wouldn’t bet money on anything! From a financial point of view, I’m purely a disinterested observer.
I explained earlier the massive shortcomings of the sub-samples. But, at the risk of becoming a bore myself, I was intensely irritated by the way that Mike of all people was relying on utterly threadbare ‘evidence’ from a handful of Scottish sub-samples to support his ‘heartlands flocking back to Labour’ theory, which he was practically stating as fact. That’s been my main motivation for flagging up the sub-samples that refuse to support this theory - and there have been a great many.
426. Mmmmmmmm….ecstasy!
420 PtP - I’ve just taken Brown’s Exit Date with Betfair at 8.8/1 for Q3 and 13/1 for Q4.
425/426 - Get a room!
407: Mike’s warning is mainly directed at sub-questions which aren’t weighted for voting intention - unlike these. It appears to be factually true that there are masses of people who think the Tories lightweight but still at present plan to vote for them.
You can read that two ways. You could argue that it shows that people think the Tories are so cool that they don’t mind that they’re lightweight, so it’s a good sign. Or you could argue that it shows that Cameron hasn’t closed the deal yet. Guess which I prefer?
426 Sally - lucky for you that we’re just past the witching hour!
432-
433 - It would be interesting to see a comparison with similar polling questions (if they existed) from pre 97. I guess that all oppositions struggle on that sort of score simply because they have nothing to prove their credentials.
I really wanted to see everybody at the party, it’s a pity that I won’t go.
428 It is difficult. It’s neccessary to second guess that which Gordon fears most. He won’t want to face defeat, but neither will he want to stand down. He will agree to go if he is 4 to 6 months out and looks like he is heading for disaster.
There is a problem if Labour if they are seen to knife him before then.
They have fallen in line with the ‘great Chancellor’ line. Their previous attmpts at bumping him off centred around the projected view that he was a great Chancellor but a poor PM. Now it’s ‘all about the economy stupid’, his forced removal risks appearing like an acceptance of the Tory view - he was dreadful all along.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/kavanagh/article2171331.ece
Well this is a pretty unequivocal kicking from Kav.
Meanwhile the moral black hole continues in Israel
Any Israeli soldiers accused of war crimes in the Gaza Strip will be given state protection from prosecution overseas, the country’s PM has said.
Ehud Olmert said troops should know Israel would keep them safe after they acted to protect their country.
Good posts from corporeal tonight; I’d say he’s on the money with where the Lib Dems are focussing resources. Any LD target seat will have a reasonable (at least) number of activists who won’t move elsewhere, so it can be targeted. Because the target seats are often clustered, Nick Clegg & Vince Cable should be able to visit most in a campaign, so whether the party is focussing north or south won’t count for much. What will is which party the national leadership attack more - in my view the voters still wavering on election day will be ones who’ve previously voted Labour, so a clear campaign against Labour on value for money, sleaze and the environment looks like a sound strategy to me.
439 - No idea who the Sun is going to be supporting next time around
423 It’s not me. It’s Peter.
He is an exibitionist. I am quite shy.
431 PfP
I’ve long thought there must be value in that market because 2.86 is way too short for Q2 2010. Your two punts are certainly a good as any.
439 - Crikey, that is a pretty thorough spanking!
443 Yeah, right!
439 Stop talking across us please James, oops sorry you weren’t!
Amazing not a mention of any of this Lords business on the Mirror site as far as I can see, and definitely no mention on Maguire column or blog.
445. “439 - Crikey, that is a pretty thorough spanking!”
It’s just as well you put the number on that, otherwise I would have assumed it referred to the ongoing SallyC/Peter saga.
Nick. There is a third possiblity; that they are so despairing to be rid of Labour - they don’t care.
Nick. There is a third possiblity; that they are so despairing to be rid of Labour - they don’t care.
O/T
http://www.ccjacquismith.co.uk/
This looks like a worthwhile protest movement…
447,449 Snap!
439
OUCH
450/451 Sally - I know you get excited this time of nite but try not to stammer….
441. There is also the delicacy of how to do it. Positioning the Lib Dems is far harder than many give credit for. Since you’re directly fighting both Labour and Tories in different areas you do have to try and face both ways.
It’s not even as simple as ‘targeting Labour seats so attack Labour’ since you want to set yourself up as the safely “non-Tory” repository for voters who want to vote against Labour but dislike the Tories more. It’s quite tricky.
Thank you for your praise though. I’m one of fairly few Lib Dems on here, so I try and keep our end up, and offer what incites, thoughts, and betting tips I can. Plus I idly dream of party bigwigs lurking on here and me getting spotted for some important role.
449 - Hmm
452 That’s a really interesting link.
One of the reasons the Tories were so discredited pre 1997 was because a chorus of dispparoval seemed to come at them from all sides.
Re: the PBC party. Couple of q’s. When is likely to be the one after it. What’s the entrance fee, dress code, (and date, I’ve forgotten again) etc. I’m tempted, but it could be most tricky as a student to get up to London, find it in appropriate clothing, drink, chat, etc and still make the train back in time.
That light at the end of the tunnel is the same train headlight, it is just gathering speed is all.
458 - By 1997 the Tories had been battered and frankly had totally run out of steam and ideas.
But at least they hadn’t bankrupted the country…
458 - I am looking forward to sending the lovely Ms Smith the contents of my spam folder
461 - “But at least they hadn’t bankrupted the country…”
Well quite!
432. No leave hom to it, once he realises that its Nicholas Soames posting under a pseudonym that’ll sort him.
Debt/gdp is roughly the same as the Major administration, having been lower for intervening period.
439 Kav’s final sentence “It will be hard for such a proud man to be rebranded as the worst Chancellor ever.”
Wow, strong stuff! Just 6 months ago even Sean T was singing the praises of Brown as having been a great Chancellor - how opinions change.
455 I don’t want you to think I was going to let you get away with that.
[I had a reply but then thought better of posting it.]
COMRES regional splits:
SE: C 46; LAB 29; LD 15; GN 4; UKIP 1; BNP 1; OTHER 4;
MIDS: C 53; LAB 22; LD 15; BNP 3; GN 2; UKIP 1; OTHER 4
SW&WALES; C 43; LAB 24; LD 20; PC 5; GN 4; UKIP 2; BNP 1; OTHER 1;
NORTH: C 34; LAB 37; LD 17; GN 2; UKIP 1; BNP 1; OTHER 7;
SCOTLAND: C 21; LAB 28; LD 15; SNP 32; GN 2; OTHER 1;
459 “Re: the PBC party. Couple of q’s. When is likely to be the one after it. What’s the entrance fee, dress code, (and date, I’ve forgotten again) etc. I’m tempted, but it could be most tricky as a student to get up to London, find it in appropriate clothing, drink, chat, etc and still make the train back in time.”
Corporeal
Details yet to be finalised and published but it is definitely March 23rd at the Nat. Liberal Club. Starts 6pm; wraps up about 9pm (ish). Cost will probably be about £20 - we think wine will be free, but yet to confirm. Wear a tie if you want to stroll round the (excellent) building, otherwise you are confined to the Party room, which is OK. A tie can be borrowed I’m sure if you need one. No other dress code. Sally will of course be wearing her slippers, but then you know what Sally’s like.
466. He has a point though. Brown is a student of political history. It will be devastating to his huge ego to be written up as a failure. It may be the only way the country will have it’s revenge.
But he will want to avoid it. Blair only thought about his legacy at lunchtime the day before he left. With Brown, this will be an important factor in his deliberations about stepping down.
467 Sally, you are very beautiful when angry.
I have bought a new suit which will probably get its first airing at the PBC partay. I may even look respectable.
465 - What about all the off balance sheet PFI stuff that Brown has involved himself in that make Enron look like saints!
470 - Sadly for him, that boat is sailing away.
469. Ah good. Tie is fine, it was the jacket that was worrying me. I left mine back at home (didn’t foresee any needs to be that formal while a student). *starts planning*
Some interesting articles in the FT
Airbus €5bn guarantee from France
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d0dadc06-eb38-11dd-bb6e-0000779fd2ac.html
ECB board member doesn’t want to cut European interest rates too much
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b2566f96-eb0d-11dd-bb6e-0000779fd2ac.html
On Scottish (and other) sub samples it is legitimate to look at a run of polls rather than rely on one small sample.
On that basis there is fairly substantial indications that Labour are now on the retreat while the SNP are back on the rise.
Just on observation Salmond et all seem to have recovered their verve of late - for example his “homecoming” interview with Andrew Marr this morning is as good as I have seen in recent times.
Labour in contrast look very negative in Scotland and I think will drown in the recession.
465 - I know that’s rubbish, you know it’s rubbish and everyone else knows it’s rubbish.
The debt figures leave so much out that there’s no way you can make a reasoned case for that to be true. I shall introduce only one phrase to correct you…”public sector pension liabilities”.
472 - Ooh a new suit for the PBC party, thats pushing the boat out a bit isn’t it?
479 Well I shall certainly be taking mine out of the Pawn Shop, James.
Stop talking about the Party!
471. I thought better of it because not because it was hot tempered - but because it was a little riskee - even after the watershed.
And one of these days - I may just meet you all and that might be embarrassing for someone with my natural modesty.
Anyay, it was very very funny.
Corporeal. Re dress code - something nice but understated - I’d go for open-toed.
475 - I had to be far more formal at uni than I ever have since! Except for my brief period at Andersen’s while Rome burned (with Enron fuel)
479 - It is more in preparation for interviews if need be sometime later this year…
So many spelling mistakes must mean I can see straight - which is either tiredness or alcohol - either way it’s a sign it’s bedtime!
Goodnight all. Sweet dreams.
465.”Debt/gdp is roughly the same as the Major administration, having been lower for intervening period.”
Jonathan, any predictions on what the debt/GDP will actually be by the time this government are given their P45? And will I care if its the same or different from 97′, or should we judge this government on their handling of the economy, debt etc over the last 11 years?
I don’t remember the state of the economy in 1979 when Labour were last in having any effect on the result in 97′.
Some interesting comments about the Liberal Democrats this evening, for once, and not just the usual Tory frothing.
Corporeal is, of couse, quite right. In a general election there are not masses of troops willing to be moved around, especially where large distances are involved. So targeting in terms of manpower has to be moderately local. Like Corporeal, I am nowhere near the centre of things, but I would be most surprised if there were not still a measure of manpower targeting in prospect in the South of England. Which seats might be the beneficiaries, I have no idea.
Then there is financial targeting. It is no secret that the Liberal Democrats have a very much smaller income than Labour and the Tories, but a lot of that goes into the local parties, rather than into the centre. So the Tory pattern, of wads of money going out from the centre, does not apply in the case of the Liberal Democrats.
In short, if there is nothing much going on on the ground, nothing at all will be coming along from the centre. Tory calls to the Liberal Democrats to stop working in narrowly-held Tory marginals and to head off to the other end of the country to fight Labour-held seats just show they are living in a world of fanstasy, I´m afraid.
The good news, from a Lib Dem point of view, is that we are able to make a little go a long way (ie we are far more cost-effective that Labour and the Tories).
But yes, I think the idea of winning over Labour voters is the right one. How is Nick Clegg to do that? I think in the way he is - by attacking both Labour and Tories. His attacks on Labour surely appeal to those who value freedom and fairness, against authoritarianism and discrimnation; and his attacks on the Tories show that he is on the side of “us” against “them”. Again, Tory posters here do not like being criticised, but I am sure that this is an essential part of the Lib Dem strategy to win over Labour voters.
439 - yep - and I found myself nodding as I read it.
A well deserved kicking
Evening all.
Just back from the pub, where I’ve had a fun evening, much fortified by news of this poll (albeit ComRes, who I wish would just leave their weightings alone for a while…)
485.Sally, I make tons of mistakes in my posts, I cannot use the excuse of tiredness or alcohol. I stupidly posted on here late one night at Christmas time after a wee party, I think managing to misspell my own name without noticing did give me away, its the one thing I usually manage to get right.
480 - Lol… And the trademark hat?
490 - Doesn’t spelling your own name right get you an A* at GCSE English nowadays?
490-Christina- I also make many mistakes, but sometimes I’m not even bothered to fix it!
Christina - my sister in Blue Harpidom - your accuracy on this site extends way beyond your name….
492 - I thought you just had to turn up nowadays…
From the seat calculators:
Wells: Con maj 114
Baxter: Con maj 120
Me: Con maj 132
Others far too high, LD too low.
Now now kids, the standards of education are rising year after year. The results say so.
472 David, I’m relieved to hear you can still stretch to a new suit, despite your, ahem, impending losing bet with yours truly.
495 - They at least have to write their name so that the examiners KNOW they turned up.
497 - Absolutely correct, sir. I wouldn’t want to diminish their achievements. Cough cough….
500!
Five hundredth? 918,753rd? 2548 leaflets delivered so far, 2452 to go.
I’m glad I didn’t give into my temptation to get the 500th post. On that note, it’s time to call it a night.
501,502-lol!
502-Good night.
482 Sally - If I couldn’t rely on your sense of good fun, I would never, never tease!
Hope to see you at the party.
(Open-toed slippers?
)
492.
Even the kids going through the system have cynically caught onto that fact.
494. SallyC, they make the knicker elastic much stronger for the blue harpie sisterhood in the North, maybe we should lend some to Seant when he next has one of his wobbles?
504.Me, which part of the world are you from, and can I be personal and ask if you are female or male?
498 - Meh, I think it is a disgrace you won this one. A working week to go though.
491 Indeed James, the red one.
Ha. I’d like to see half the people who complain about exams getting easier try them. I suspect they’d not do to well.
The problem is of course that teachers now just teach to exams so people tend not to get a well-rounded education. Not that the exams are easy.
I managed to buck the trend by being pretty well rounded, but too rebellious in exam technique to do as well as I might have (apparently in a history question about anti-semitism, it is “being too much of a smartarse” to start arguing about the definition of anti-semtism, and also not sensible to write a letter on the back of your physics editor explaining why one of his questions is incorrect.
479 - It is more in preparation for interviews if need be sometime later this year…
David - I promise not to cut and paste this post to your employers.
Weren’t you looking for a job in Ireland at one time - I suppose the state of their economy has put paid to such plans?
508 A working week to go though.
True enough, as Harold once said …….
507-Christina-Well, I live in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, I thought you already knew that…
510. corporeal: I’d like to see half the people who complain about exams getting easier try them. I suspect they’d not do to well.
They might struggle, but that would most probably be because they were taught in a different way - i.e. they learnt things other than how to pass exams.
513 And you’re not hopping back for the Party? Shame on you, Me.
510.Back in the old days at my comp, you sat your exams and your parents got the mark, grade(A-E) and your place in the class on the school report. Fairly concentrated the mind I can tell you.
513-Oh the second part.Female or Male. It’s a mistery. You can guess if you want.
Well another disastrous poll for Labour, no surprise is it? Someone mentioned above a factor which we’ve covered before, the closure of Woolworths. OK it was a crap business with bad management but it had been such an iconic part of the high street with 800 odd stores the length and breadth of Britain that it’s closure had a huge psychological impact and brought home to people who had been been enjoying the huge discounts just how much doo-doo we really were in! The news from Corus tomorrow is going to be grim, I don’t take any pleasure in that, as much as I want to see the back of Brown and his band of nincompoops, we’re all going to be unwilling participants in his death march to 6/5/10.
The sub-samples are even worse for Labour, OK they have to be treated with a pinch of salt but they do tend to show trends. Scotland is the worst one for Labour, the SNP seem to have recovered the initiative and, a double whammy for Labour, in the space of a week 2 sub-samples show the Tories above 20%, there was one last week which had them on 28%, far too high IMO but the new ComRes figure of21% is probably about right. By the way I’m not Scottish but I follow Scottish politics very closely, as it’s so damn interesting! and Labour and the Lib Dems look set for the mother of all squeezes. As it stand I think the Tories could win up ton 5 seats in Scotland, Dumfries, Galloway, Roxburgh, Edinburgh S and Renfrewshire E (I know that’s Jim Murphy’s seat but the Tories just missed the Holyroyd seat by a whisker and there is a significant SNP vote there and Murphy’s gloating triumphialism over the HBOS bailout may make a lot of those voters act with their heads not their hearts!) and depending how the votes break they have a shout in Argyll, Stirling, Edinburgh SW and Aberdeenshire West.
From here I can only see Labour finishing 3rd in the Euro’s with the Tories pushing 50%, albeit on a low turnout. You heard it here first!
515-Ptp-Do you want to make the party here in Brazil?
514 - I’ve recently seen a GCSE exam paper and to be honest I would struggle, but that is because it would be a total and utter insult to my intelligence.
To be honest as well I hated the constriction of formal education by the end. One of the reasons I’ve never done a degree is that I can never quite make up my mind what subject interests me enought to do for 3 years.
519 Not sure PB funds will run to it this year, Me. Next year though….
496 - LS (just posted the same question on your blog)
Which constituencies do you see as going BNP, Respect and Green?
513.Wow, I didn’t know that. Nearest I have got to South America was my honeymoon in Jamaica back in 1990. I hate flying, and having managed to avoid it for the family holiday the last two years, I am desperately trying to come up with another excuse this time. We usually alternate between the UK and somewhere else, served me right when I persuaded everyone to go by ferry to France, it was the crossing from hell.
Had to fly to Bristol last year though, shudders.
Goodnight all.
521-Ptp
It would be great. Have you ever came to Brazil?
Right I’m signing out, got to get some sleep some time!
523-Lol Christina, I really thought you knew that already. Anyway I don’t like flying either, but here is the only way. Is a large country, and the ferry is not good, so the only way to go to somewhere is by plane.
524-Good night PfP
511 - I will be looking to move to Ireland at some point, but it might be a while yet!
522. Simon: Which constituencies do you see as going BNP, Respect and Green?
Most likely gains for the Others on these figures:
BNP: Barking, Burnley and West Ham.
Respect: Poplar & Limehouse.
Green: Brighton Pavilion.
510 - I have and they are easier. I will explain, as all the people who rant on tv and in the media always seem to fail to do.
I will use a specific example of maths, which I know a lot about. They are easier for three main reasons,
1) The person taking the exam has their hand held a lot more. Questions are broken up into parts, and so it is possible to work from the following parts what is required in the earlier parts. Compare this to say exams from the 60’s and 70’s, where a general question was asked, and you are expected to outline an essay or solution will little to no hand holding.
2) Far worse IMO than 1 (as you do still have to know the material) is that the breadth of the subject studied has narrowed significantly.
3) Due to 1) and 2), limit the variety of questions that can be asked, and thus similar questions appear frequently. If you know the way of answering the past 3-4 years worth of exams you have a very good chance of seeing the same again (not even in a slightly different form).
And as you said teachers teach for tests rather than the subject. This is made easier due to 1) and 2), more structured questions on a limited range of topics allows pupils to be able to be “taught” for the exam from previous examples with little real understanding of why they are doing it. Rather than being able to work from first principles, they learn a set equation for a set problem.
I have to had experience of teaching undergraduates at a top university, and I notice more and more how although all the students have between 3-5 A’s at A-Level, are keen, motivated and knowledgeable about a small area of a subject like maths. However, they lack a) a broad foundation of knowledge to build upon and b) skills such as logical thinking.
I find when I ask them about maths / further maths at A-Level, a lot of what I did in maths A-Level is now in further maths. The stuff that I studied in further maths, and a lot of it was bigger harder problems with a lot less hand holding, just doesn’t exist anymore. These kind of problems are obviously what degree levels requires, and the undergraduates I encounter get a nasty shock to say the least.
520. You’ve seen the question, whether your answer would be marked well is another thing. Jumping through hoops it may be, but that is trickier than it looks. I still maintain that like experienced drivers re-taking tests, people now would struggle more than they think with exams.
…unless I’ve misread my data at after 1:30am, which is always possible!
529 - Many thanks - will watch with interest.
I am intrigued to see how the establishment deals with the prospect of a BNP MP. The idea that a police officer (and any of the other jobs where membership of a legal political party is outlawed) can’t be a member of a party that is has an elected MP is one that surely cannot stand up.
I don’t like the BNP in any way, shape or form. But they won’t be defeated by pretending they don’t exist or trying to use the law to suppress them.
Nite all. Another day, and possible another poll from ICM?
534-Night. That’s it for me too, good night everyone.
Erminegate sounds like a bus station to me, but it reminded me of this little limericks from an earlier sleazy Labour mess, only slightly changed.
A party that said it was clean
Was caught in a money machine
So steep their decline
They’re all doing time
And their boss?
Why, Mr Has-Bean
529 - BNP seem to be going backwards in Burnley, I can’t comment on the others
As an aside, possible LABOUR gains at the next election? On the face of it, Blaneau Gwent, Bethnal Green and Bow, maybe one or two of the Lib/Lab marginals (Oxford E, Chesterfield, Dunfermline & W Fife - not a ‘gain’ technically as lost on a by-election) and, as an outside bet, Castle Point - depending on how well Spink does on the UKIP banner
My biggest concern with the way exams have gone is that we now have a generation of box tickers / hoop jumpers. Although they work hard and more motivated in many cases than say their parents, their outlook is dominated by what is on the exam and how would they answer it.
They lack the skills to question, to reason, to think outside the box (I hate that phase), which is what the country requires if we are to compete against the rest of the world in the knowledge economy. The Chinese education style is very much the lines of learn by example, don’t think for yourself, ever wondered why they copy everything?
Why is MIT is the best university in the world for science and technology. Simple, they actively encourage free thinking, trying things not because you will get a good mark, but because you can. Same at Google, one day a week is given over to personal projects (whatever they may be).
These are the messages we need to send out, not that the exam will consist of x,y and z. If people go on beyond degree level, especially to a PhD, there isn’t just a book you can read to get the answer, there isn’t a teacher to tell you how to do it, there probably isn’t anybody else in the world who knows how to do it. You have to get your arse in gear, you brain doing some thinking, and try and work it out yourself.
530. I did go to a highly rated comp. Our head of maths said from the outset if you want to do maths at uni do further maths or drop the idea. So perhaps I didn’t see the worst of the education system (I certainly remember differentiating and integrating from first principles, and out maths teachers often threw out the theory behind things as an extra).
I bow to your expertise on 60s and 70s though, but I wonder how many of the criticisers would do so well.
Further to 537, can Edwatd Timpson hold Crewe & Nantwitch in a General Election? I’d be inclined to say yes on the national picture, especially if he puts another year’s hard work in to up his personal vote a bit
Perhaps I should declare my interest as the owner of an A at A-level, so perhaps I’m unsurprisingly defensive of it.
537 - Oxford E wouldn’t be a Labour gain… it is still held by them
537. Paul D.
I will say that projecting gains for the Others is fraught with difficulties, so they can always just be a rough guide to possibilities.
13% seems too high for Others, but if the three-party share is down to 87% there will be surprising gains somewhere.
538. On MIT, I feel you should add having a shedload of cash.
542 - my apologies, Anthony Wells has called it notionally for the LDWs but Thrasher & Rallings still have it as Labour-held
537. Paul D: possible LABOUR gains at the next election?
Other than the ones you mention, they might sneak through the middle in some three way marginals in Scotland. I’m not sure what the conditions on the ground in Blaneau Gwent are like. Bethnal Green & Bow will depend on whether Respect can run the same kind of campaign as they did in 2005 with the odious Galloway departed to next door.
Corporeal, I sent you a PM via LDV. Have you received it yet?
541 - My criticisms at the outset are never of the students, but the system. As I said I actually think that the “kids” (in quotes as I not exactly old myself) are much more motivated than a generation ago.
My fear is that a) they come to university lacking understanding of some key building blocks (which I don’t spend time going over) and b) that a lot of the natural human instincts to inquire, investigate, challenge has been drilled out of many of them.
It is a big difference I see between the public school intake (+ grammar and top state schools) and those from the general state system. The public school “kids” seem to have been taught that the exam will be easy and that it is just as important to understand why things are a certain way. They are also more prone to ask questions and challenge my answers (and I do make mistakes from time to time :-)). They also seem much more comfortable with answering problems that are more ad hoc and no necessarily in the material.
On the whole, the state school kids have been drilled for the exam and nothing else. They come having work really hard. But, they also often lack that confidence to get involved. Furthermore, they often get a bit of a shock when they aren’t the brightest amongst the peers and that things they are asked to do might be actually really tough (and not necessarily one right answer).
GAH! I wasn’t warned about the Screen Actors Guild awards… just when I thought I would get an early night.
Obama = Hitler.
… according to David Icke!
549 - That was spammed to the Sun Birthdays email address. I love david icke
nite everybody
The socioeconomic group and regional splits were posted upthread.
Age breakdown:
18-24: 38-33-22
25-34: 41-31-19
35-44: 42-28-15
45-54: 35-33-16
55-64: 39-23-24
65+: 53-24-9
O) “D %)