Is this what’s driven Labour’s recovery?
December 29th, 2008
But what happens if optimism begins to wane?
One of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been around for a long time and in many cases has been asking the same questions in the same way for getting on for three decades.
One of those questions has been the firm’s “Economic Optimism Index” where polling respondents are asked “Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?” The pollster then subtracts the “get worse” figure” from the “improve” figures to produce its Economic Optimism Index. Recent trends are shown in the chart above.
Back in July the index reached minus 64 - the worst number recorded since the firm started this back in 1979. Since then there has been something of a recovery and the December “EOI” is now at minus 48 - still bad but not on the same scale as in the summer.
July, of course, saw some of the worst voting intention figures for Labour across a range of pollsters. Since then, and particularly following the banking bailout, there has been an improvement in the EOI and, at the same time, the general election voting intention numbers have got better for the party.
Anthony Wells, in a brilliant piece of analysis on UK Polling Report just before Christmas, argues that the perception that Labour has bucked the trend of governments normally losing popularity when the economy turns is wrong. “..Labour’s position completely tanked in the months after the budget, at the same time as economic confidence really began to fall through the floor. The recent recovery in Labour’s position in the polls dates from the bank rescue in October 2008, which has also seen a recovery in economic confidence…”
So what happens if confidence starts to wane again in 2009 with the massive retail closures, the increasing number of job losses and continuing economic bad news?
If the Wells thesis is correct then those who have continued to back the Tories to secure an overall majority on the spread betting markets might have got this right after all. The latest prices from Sporting Index suggest a Tory total of 337 seats or enough for an overall majority of 24 seats.
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First and that’s a first of the night.
last
A Lib Dem first???
I’ve been chasing shadows this morning in the cricket.I cannot believe how sharp the punters are.Still looking very good for S.Africa.
Everything is nicely poised regarding the state of the Parties.Par for the next poll is a Tory lead of five.If it is less than five it will be derided as being a ‘Christmas poll’ and if more will be hailed as evidence that the Labour bounce has stalled.
I thought it was asking too much…. but the tide will turn….
I think the answer to your question, Mike, is - exceptionally - “yes”.
But the implied question at the end - will it last? - is obviously “no”.
We’ve seen a busy time on the high streets. It’s Christmas, there are massive sales and many chains are selling off their stock as they collapse. After January the high streets will have tumbleweed rolling down them. Redundancy notices have been delayed until the new year. Various ugly taxes will kick in during April.
The mood music is going to turn very nasty very quickly over the next few weeks. I don’t suppose that can be good for Gordon.
‘Morning all. I’m not very optimistic this morning, but as long as I dont have to look at our Great Leader’s ugly face, I’ll be happy.
The media narrative must have had some gearing on people’s optimism/pessimism, and I am not too sure that they can continue with the ‘we’re all doomed’ theme for ever, no matter how bad things become.
The point is that for the majority of people things aren’t bad at all. For those with safe(ish) jobs in the public sector and those in economic areas less affected by the recession things aren’t bad. Energy prices are dropping, petrol prices are dropping. The shops are full of bargains. For many pensioners and for poorer families things are looking up for much the same reason.
I feel desperately sorry for the million or more people who are going to lose their jobs. But the reality is that for those who are going to keep theirs, things aren’t too bad at all.
Many of them will use this time, unconsciously, to reduce debt, before gradually and rapidly increasing their spending, towards the back end of next year is my guess.
The big casualty so far is the foreign holiday. At long last the chattering classes can find out about their own country!
Interesting example of the wisdom of crowds in the graph which shows that sentiment changed in late summer/early autumn 2007. While the BoE MPC continued to worry about inflation well into 2008 and the Treasury still forecast growth of 2% in 2008 & 2.5% in the 2008 Budget, the “crowd” knew what was coming.
“We didn’t know” pleads Brown, but ‘We’ did.
ChristinaD, myself and others commented back in October that those supporting Labour were noticeably more optimistic on the economy than the other groups. Signs are that optimism was misplaced, when that becomes apparent then I expect the Governments support to fall again.
(in more than one part to find what is triggering the spam trap)
The point that Anthony Wells has made and to which you draw attention is important and compelling, but I think we need to look a little deeper still.
Why has economic confidence improved in the last few months? After all, banks have tottered, companies have already started collapsing, yet a fair proportion of the British public is apparently shrugging it off. It is not good enough to say that such people are not feeling the effects of the recession yet: they were not feeling the effects of the recession in June, but economic confidence then was abysmal. Why has there been a recovery in the last few months?
I can think of the following reasons:
1) Interest rates have come down. Those whose finances were most seriously stretched by over-extended borrowing have felt some relief.
2) Oil prices have come down. Those who have to fill up their tanks are finding a bit more money in their pockets at present.
3) Inflation has come down.
4) The Government is looking far more confident than it did in June.
No doubt others can add other possible reasons to this list.
(continued from 11)
The net result of these four changes is that a section of the population is finding that their own financial position has improved significantly and they have watched a Government deal with an international financial crisis with aplomb (and before anyone gets started, this is a comment on the handling, not on the substance of what the Government did). This may be why they are more confident than they previously were - and why they may be more inclined to vote Labour. It would suggest a reason why Labour’s support has increased in the south east, where many are most overextended.
Moving on from this, how will a run of bad economic news affect these people? Those who are directly affected by redundancy or who see it running through their companies will reconsider. Those who work for a company that collapses will reconsider. But the rest? I wonder. If you can hold down a job and maintain current pay levels in a time when inflation is quiescent and all items of discretionary spending are being heavily discounted, you’re one of the winners.
Labour’s support in the professional classes may evaporate as the recession bites hard, as those who can afford to have social consciences trot them out (just as happened to the Tories in the 1980s) - but such people have already deserted Labour in droves, so that is not quite as big a hit as might be expected. Those who are less affluent and who were previously inclined to vote Labour will probably stay loyal so long as they are reasonably confident that they will hold down a job.
What does this mean for the next election? If I am right, my take is that a recession won’t necessarily be as bad for Labour as is currently conventionally thought, but it will be bad enough for them to lose the election. Whether the Tories will have a big enough majority to work with is another question entirely.
9 Its not the chattering classes in Tuscany who are the bulk of foreign holidaymakers but those who take a cheap break in the sun. British holidays might be cheaper for the Europeans and Americans but not for millions of people on short time working or those who not only will not get pay rises but will lose overtime, bonuses or even take pay cuts.
Agree that the big majority will not be too badly hit but disagree that they will feel well off, and when people do feel the worst is over then, as in 1993/4, IMHO they will blame the Government for the pain caused to “the innocent victims of Brown’s incompetence”
From Jan 2nd 2009, we can all recite “The Wasteland” by T.S. Elliot as our ecinomy becomes moribund.
sorry, Economy
11 I would add perhaps the fact that many people have only experienced relatively good times and have not lived (as adults at least) through a major downturn. As a result when things go bad they have no idea of how bad they will get. As a result they are always inclined to think that this is the bottom and things must now improve.
This is the great danger for Labour since when people realise things are not going to get better any time soon they are far more shocked by their situation.
I also disagree with the comments by ‘reflecting’ at 9. Yes a million people may lose their jobs but the knock on effect in the community is far wider than that. For every person that loses their job there will be dozens who see their businesses suffer and will have to cut their own pay or that of their employees. There will be the families of the unemployed who are affected and all the casual service industries that also see turnover and profits drop. Just saying only a million unemployed are the ones who will suffer and everyone else will be okay ignores all the other millions - particularly the self employed - who may keep their jobs but see a drop in their income as a result.
I know that Governments lose elections but perhaps the seriousness of the situation means that the alternative of a Brown government doing something and a Cameron government that that would do ….? Is helping the Labour Party.
When what the government is doing is making matters worse I hardly think your tired old mantra stands.
16
Adding to what I wrote at 16. The other thing that needs to be remembered is that people have dreams and aspirations. Most people already have a plan in their heads about when they would like to retire, have children, move house etc. As they see their savings disappearing they are hardly likely to think of the recession as something that is only happening to other people.
Before the Tsunami, the tide goes out.
“antifrank” and “reflecting” tell us how safe it is to go cockling.
This ‘Labour recovery’ is such a pile of rubbish. When they start leading in the polls I will agree they have recovered.
Labour are behind, will get further behind, and will lose.
The economy is not on the verge of some miraculous recovery, more stores will go bust in January and the High Streets of Britain will look like semi-desolate building sites by the end of 2009 after about 10 large shops on each of them closes to make way for thousands of “pound shops”.
Every one of them will be a great clunking reminder that ‘No more boom and bust’ was the most ridiculous mantra from a prime minister in the past 50 years.
20 - I don’t mind anyone disagreeing with what I suggest, Lord knows I disagree with about 30% of what I’ve said in the past myself. However, I would genuinely be interested in knowing why you think that economic confidence improved in the last few months, which is the question that I identified and attempted to answer, rather than reread your bon mot (which wasn’t amusing nor illuminating yesterday either).
22 - I would say that the huge job losses have not actually come about just yet, most of the closures in retailing haven’t yet happened for instance. While low petrol prices have been noted. This is the thing people see evidence of most often (it’s an easy half page for a tabloid paper as well as all the forecourts)
Plus, many people will have been enjoying all the discounts in the shops without actually realising that they are a sign of major economic problems in the sector.
And most people in the lower middle/working classes don’t go on holiday in winter so won’t yet have noticed how buggered up the pound is.
That’s my explanation, added to the fact that some people actually still believe things that the government say.
Last night the BBC were running a story on the Tories and tax.
It seemed that Osborne’s BIG ANNOUNCEMENT was that the Tories would perhaps one day bother with some policies. Hardly new! Thought Philip Hammond was impressive in interview.
If I was Cameron, I would have Ozzie in a policy role - and promote Hammond. And of course bring back DD.
22 Shops are busy.
The great elephant is slaughtered. There is meat enough for everyone.
The tide has gone out. It is a good time for cockling.
I’ve just had a tip about some big Tory news that might come out today. A big front bench change.
24 If I was Cameron, I would ignore posts like that.
22 I think the No 4 in your list is probably the more important in explaining why there has been a decrease in pessimism - the appearance of Government action and unity with Brown’s confidence and claims to be leading the country through the worst has, I believe, convinced some.
The fall in mortgage payments (though not credit cards), lower petrol prices (though not yet gas & electricity) and fall in the rate of inflation (but not a fall in the cost of living to make up for lower than inflation rate wage increases in past year) do provide comfort but I doubt that really influences yet public confidence in recovery soon. Government action is the more influential.
23 Sterling is 1.03 Euros.
Labour is doing nothing to rebuild Britain’s productivity.
Labour is the do nothing party.
The Mole in the First Post running story about possible return for Ken Clarke - to shadow Mandelson as Business Secretary.
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/themole,,ken-clarke-mooted-to-shadow-mandelson-and-young-osborne,66059
OT - there is an assumption that Royal Mail part privatisation will be trouble for Labour, with so many rebels. However, from what I see it will be hard for the LD to oppose - is it LD policy? (Conference 2006?)
Similarly, do the Tories have any view on this?
Time to place your bets ladies and gentlemen ??
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) — The pound may rebound from its worst year on record against the euro as investors start betting on a recovery in the U.K. economy, according to the world’s biggest currency traders.
The U.K. currency will strengthen 14 percent against Europe’s common currency next year, after depreciating about 24 percent in 2008, based on the median forecast of 42 analysts and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. Deutsche Bank AG, the largest trader as measured by Euromoney Institutional Investor Plc, predicts a 20 percent gain
While Labour continues with Labour policies, reward the negatives and punishing the positives, the pound will continue to fall.
It is not difficult to predict the fall with such policies.
26 - Mike, I assume your tip is a different source than the one you’ve just posted @30?
25 - If I read you right, and metaphors are good for Delphi but bad for political and economic analysis, you actually agree with my 1, 2, 3. Where we differ is what comes next.
You seem to be led astray by your own tsunami metaphor. Unless you believe that we are in for an economic cataclysm the like of which has not been seen for 75 years, most people will stay in work and continue to benefit from discounts and low interest rates.
34 - Er, looks as if it isn’t!
#22, antifrank, the reason why the economic-situation has looked rosier recently is easy to answer: Have you not visited your local Co-op…?
Cheap booze! Never have I seen it so low! Eight-bottles of Grolsh/Carling-Export for under a fiver; ten-bottles of Stella for £7 (and 13-fl-oz/330-ml bottles at that)!
It’s Christmas, and we are enjoying the last moments of Autumn. Our hang-over will - unfortunately - coincide with the bitterest of winter-chills…!
#20, pukka!
Clarke to Business, Davis to SCOTE, Ozzie to Party Chairman?
I can live with that.
38 Osborne will stay at Shadow Chancellor.
#32, at present the Pound Sterling (but not it’s Scottish cousin) is under-valued against both the US Dollar (slightly) and the Euro-monstrosity (which may be 50% over-valued). [Source: The Economist.]
The losers of this situation are Ireland, Spain (both of whom need to devalue their currency), Italy (which is an euphemism for f*cked) and Germany (who cannot compete against nations outside the Euro, despite the expertise).
Sterling will recover, though the current administration’s policies do not offer confidence. The Euro is experiencing it’s pride, before it’s fall…!
Did you ever hear such a breath taking piece of Newspeak from a Home Office spokesman this morning (no doubt taking lessons from dear Jacqui). He or she rubbishes the Tory’s figures which stated that death from stabbings are up by countering that these may be overstated because they included glassings.
Perhaps the twit who said this could send a wreath round to the family of Emma O’Kane? Or is it the new Labour view that she’s not quite dead having only been murdered by a shard of glass rather than a knife. Disgusting.
The optimism is already starting to wane. The unemployment figures are starting to roll in and the BBC website had a prediction that 15 major high street retailers will die before mid January.
Scaremongering? Perhaps, but the reality is that Labour are already staring at both barrels and just have to pray that the world economy stabilises because the general election taunts from David Cameron are going to be cranked up a notch in the New Year.
http://www.lettersfromatory.com
30 - That would be great news for the Tories.
#32 Link to the full article for those interested:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=akPAtFeADlSI&refer=home
re 26 Mike the last “big Tory news” was of course Damian Green. Charges dropped etc on a day when hopefully no-one will notice?
35. It depends what you mean by “work”. With a massive public sector which has to be supported, with the “funny money” jobs in the City disappearing like early morning mist (cos they never had any substance anyway)….just who is actually producing anything? This is a problem which UK governments have shied away from for more than half a century. Thatcher tried to deal with it but became distracted by “Big Bang”, Major tried to watch over the steady decline and Blair carried on ignoring the problem as well as involving us in a very costly War. As for Brown he has just concentrated on being a secure “treasurer” of the Labour Philatelic Society - hence Nick Palmer’s assertion of a few weeks back that the Party organisation was in good order and the financial worries of the Party have receded.
re 22/28 you both forget that vital part of people’s budget, viz food. That’s is still going up and not falling.
re 30 Mrs Dale mentioned this yesterday, I believe.
There’s obviously a relationship between how people feel about the Government and how they think the economy will move, but it’s not necessarily the simple one (”optimism implies voting Labour, pessimism implies not voting Labour”) that Anthony Wells’ piece and this article assume. If you think the economy is doomed, you’re unlikely to think kindly of the Government. But conversely, if you think the Government is handling the crisis as well as can be expected, you’re less likely to think the economy is doomed.
Both judgments will be affected by the flow of news. The main story in the next few months is likely to be rising unemployment and falling energy prices - the former is probably more widely anticipated than the latter, but it’s going to feel pretty rough all the same. I can see the Tory lead widening to the 6-10 points range, then narrowing again as a perception takes holds that we’re over the worst *if* the spate of big closures slows and house prices bottom out. That’s why I think an autumn election may make sense - but it depends on that perception actually materialising.
Clarke vs Mandelson on business would be a fascinating duel, even though at one remove as they’re in different Houses. What is Clarke’s most recently expressed view on whether joining the Euro would be good for business?
32 Ah yes, those experts
For those of you who have never heard of him, here are some links to Peter Schiff.
He predicted the crash - but for some reason is ridiculed & silenced.
Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw
Peter Schiff silenced on CNN International 11/24/2008
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbvL4u-MrVM
Why would Labour & Bankers predict something that isnt true? Why indeed…
#46, I am a service-provider, which means I write software for clients. It’s goal is to increase productivity.
The question arises: am I a service-sector worker, or a bastion of the UK’s manufacturing system? I consider myself the latter.
Then again, I may be wrong. Did not John Prescott manufacture a postal-ballot system that won nEU-Labour a third term. He was never industrious - accepting with his Diary Secretary of course…!
Clarke as Business Secretary is also in the Mail.
I hope Alan Duncan remains in a decent job. He could do with being a little less self-satisfied, but he’s a decent frontbencher, I think.
48 Clarke is entitled to his views. The Conservative party tolerates many views and agrees a common position.
Mike. I wonder if the recovery in things will get better is down mainly to public sector workers. Is there a way to get a breakdown of this? I ask because up until the summer inflation looked like it would stay above 4% for a while at the same time as the government imposed 2% caps on public sector pay settlements. The multi year deals now look less bad for the police and the NHS. From a real cut of 5% over two years, I’d guess they are looking at a real cut of less than 2%, together with lower interest rates etc.
I should imagine most private sector workers got the message when NR went under and things began to turn for housing prices. I can’t see them seeing things getting better.
Will public sector workers escape the downturn? Probably not. While the central government intones it is hoping to increase spending, it’s clear that the tax shortfall is going to do a number on local government spending.
BTW, I’ve not seen discussion of the details in the YouGov questions on savings and taxation in their last poll, here:
http://www.yougov.com/uk/archives/pdf/DT_22-Dec-toplines.pdf
An interesting finding is that 72% of pensioners say they rely on savings income ‘not at all’ or ‘hardly at all’, while 21% say “quite a lot” and 9% “a great deal”. There’s obviously a typo there as the figures add up to more thna 100, but in broad terms it shows why the ‘falling interest rates hit savers and most people are savers’ theme hasn’t taken off.
There’s also a different result to the recent (ComRes?) findiong that people want to see cuts in taxes even if it means reduced services: here, 27% want *more* taxes and spending, 26% want *less*, and 33% want no change. What this shows, I think, is that it depends how the question is phrased (the wording this time specifically mentions health, education and welfare), and opinion is relatively fluid - note also my ‘poll bias to the middle rule’ operating - people tend to opt for the middle of three alternatives.
Not sure i’d trust The Mole:
Cameron also has to beef up the party machine for the election which the Mole is still convinced will be later this year.
New Years Eve?
56 - snap election
55. NickP, a minor point but if you add 34 and 36 it comes to 70 not 72, which explains your “typo”.
A couple of weeks ago I looked at the relative numbers of households that rely on savings and those who are borrowers - there is a substantially larger number of borrowers than savers, I think I assumed that the top 40% of households with a pensioner at their head and 10-15% of non-pensioner households had substantial savings. The point is that the relatively well off pensioners are getting stuffed by the fall in interest rates. (And can we not have the idiotic arguments made by Labourites that pensioners getting 5% in their pensions because of where CPI was this year, mean that pensioners are getting some massive rise - the differential over yearly inflation will be minor and comes out in the wash. And can we also avoid the idiotic arguments about nominal and real interest rates so beloved of NickP and Tories - bottom line, interest rates this year are negative which is bad for pensioners as it reduces their spending power in the long run, but one cannot look at the nominal returns - you have to look at spending - income = change in capital.)
48
However much you might wish it Nick the Euro is not going to be a dividing point for the Tories.
“But while he remains a believer, Clarke dismisses arguments that Britain should try to join the euro now.
Experts including former Bank of England rate setter Willem Buiter have claimed this month that the UK has no choice but to sign up, given the vast and unsustainable liabilities now weighing on the public finances and on the pound.
Clarke emphatically disagrees. ‘You can’t join the euro in the middle of this crisis. Firstly, political madness breaks out in the UK every time you mention the words “single currency”.
‘And negotiating our entry in such uncertain economic conditions would I think be impossible. The idea that if our currency collapses that is the time to join the euro is absurd.’
Instead the UK should focus its efforts on curbing public debt and spending, which could restore some confidence in sterling, Clarke argues.”
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=457751&in_page_id=2
Spoke last night with a Spanish jobbing builder who relies mainly on British ex-pats in Spain for his business - he has not worked for the last four months!
Pound Sterling now in 1.2 Euro territory.
30 Mike
SPIN’s GE Market spread has already moved - Labour down 4 points this morning.
Someone suggested yesterday that Gordon Brown’s visage be put on a Lord Kitchener poster - and the Sun has done so to illustrate Blunkett’s article.
Those of a sensitive & economically literate bent shouldn’t read Mr Blunkett’s article. It pulls out all the stops on WWII analogies, We Can Do It, Blitz spirit, pulling together under the wise guidance of Winnie Brown. Everything is the fault of Bankers apparently, no-one else made any mistakes.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/blunkett/article2075183.ece
63. Sounds like an extended job application made in public. No doubt Blunkett still thinks he could do Home Sec better than Jacqui.
55. 34% of respondents said the question was not applicable as they “did not own any shares”. Does raise the issue of whether people were confused between interest on savings and dividends on shares.
Does anyone know the financial state of the Co-op group? Are they one of the 15 high-street names in trouble (after buying Somerfield at the top-top-of-the-bubble)…?
What joy if nEU-Labour nationlises it’s own piggy-bank. What is the word: rhymes with punts…?
Morning all
Re: 59 - I suspect the Euro isn’t on many people’s radar right now though it’s been fascinating to see people argue we should join because sterling is approaching parity !!
Right, so any time we reach parity with a currency we have to join up with it - ho, hum….
I’m still struggling with the thrust of the emerging Conservative response to all this. From initial cautious support for bank bailouts we now see the Tories moving toward a policy of cutting taxes and spending as a way of a) providing fiscal stimulus and b) restoring the public finances.
It’s of course much easier to cut spending in a growing economy than a contracting one and I don’t quite see why the Conservatives are so gung-ho about this at this time. We are likely to see falling receipts and rising demands so the leeway to make cuts is surely reduced as is the incentive to cut taxes. Saying nice things to savers is a good populist gesture but concrete actions seems to me difficult.
I do think we are seeing or will see a re-evaluation of the relationship people have with money, credit and consumption in a way that the early 90s recession didn’t.
27.
“If I was Cameron, I would ignore posts like that.”
If i were Cameron I’d be re-running all my Tony Blair training videos and bulk-buying hair restorer.
Morning all, Just been you gov’d, questions about economy taxes and whether I like various front bench politicians from all parties, no intention to vote was asked.
re 61. PtP - that’s a huge jump and it’s not me! I closed my Tory sell position before Xmas and have stayed out.
re 54 the NHS is actually probably looking at real rise over the 3 years. The 3 year deal was 7.99% and RPI inflation is likely to be in the order of 7%. Both Brown and Darling have shot themselves squarely in both feet with these deals.
#66, Stodge you have obviously better economic knowledge then moi….
So a VAT cut of 2.5% will not result in falling receipts (though not economic activity)? Maybe a miraculous boost in 2010Q1 GDP may result - by the re-imposition of the Euro-tax…?
Does raise the issue of whether people were confused between interest on savings and dividends on shares.
- exacerbated by the merging of PEPs and TESSAs into ISAs, where Labour decided that deposits and investments would be combined under the savings banner.
re 67. Certainly after reading Tyson’s comments last night about baldies then all of us who are challenged in this way should follow suit.
I can only assume that Tyson had had too much of the festive sauce because his posts made him sound barmy.
re 63 the depressing thing is that he could do a better job - and it scares me to say that.
65. Have a look at their accounts. It looks OK to me - although I wonder how their financial services arm is doing. It wasnt overly geared going into the Somerfield deal, although the deal itself will probably be looking very expensive now.
http://www.co-operative.coop/Corporate/PDFs/Annual_Report_2007.pdf
Remind me, just how much public money was stuffed into RBS?
£20 bn, wasn’t it? For a bunch of shares worth a hellofa lot less now than when ‘rescued’.
If this from the Sunday Times is accurate, expect the begging bowls to be flourished again.
“Moody’s warned last week that it may downgrade RBS’s credit ratings over concerns about its huge exposures to commercial property in the UK, Ireland and the US and the rapidly slowing UK economy.
The ratings agency also raised concerns of further writedowns from the bank’s global banking and markets division, and losses of up to £400m from exposures to Bernard Madoff’s alleged fraud.
Analysts at UBS have already warned that the bank may record losses of up to £28 billion with its full-year figures, if it takes an extremely aggressive attitude to the valuation of the assets it bought from Dutch bank ABN Amro last year.
Losses on this scale would tip the bank towards full-scale nationalisation. The government already owns 57.9% of RBS’s shares and has not ruled out further investments.
Analysts at Credit Suisse have predicted that the UK’s big banks — RBS, Barclays and the combined Lloyds Banking Group — will suffer impairment charges of £60 billion in 2009 as bad debts mount in the face of the global recession.”
74 Agreed, he could but then most probably so could a backbencher picked at random.
re 74. Well I’ve got a tenner on at 100/1 that Blunkett will be Home Secretary in a year’s time. Don’t knock it.
69 Mike
I extended my Labour Sell position a little on the basis of the Mole’s report (and I have thought for a while the price was too high) but not so much as to have affected the market myself. Others must be selling too.
Btw, are you holding an investigation into the vote-rigging scandal which put Jack ‘Robert Mugabe’ W at the head of the Best Tipster poll? Or are you just going to disqualify the old rogue on the basis that he could not possibly have garnered more than 100 votes without forcing his oppressed servants and staff to scour London for unused pcs on which to cast bogus votes for him?
Perhaps it is time he were banned?
46 Thatcher “tried to deal with it”. Yes, by destroying a large number of manufacturing jobs. Some solution!!
76 CoffeeHouse hat tips a Times article that points out that today RBS could buy Citibank ($22 billion), Goldman Sachs ($21 billion), Merrill Lynch ($12 billion), Morgan Stanley ($11 billion), Deutsche Bank ($13 billion) and Barclays ($13 billion) and still have $8 billion left over for the $100 billion they spent on ABN Amro.
They will have to write down tens of billions as regards ABN Amro so the UBS analysis is probably very close to reality.
77. Yes, I suspect that Blunkett would never have allowed himself to get into the Jacqui Smith position of being ignorant of the arrest of an Opposition MP in a leak inquiry. The mind boggles that we could even be having this discussion - “operational independence”. Ha. I still think the attitude of most Labour posters on this point is despicable.
80
Yawn!
Re: 71 - To be honest, FT, the VAT cut makes as little sense to me now as it did when I first read about it on my way home from Las Vegas.
That third weekend of November was, I think, “panic” time all around - the DJIA slumped to 7500 on the Thursday and recovered either with the appointment of Geithner (apparently) or as a result of people seeing once-in-a-lifetime bargains in stocks.
I think we were staring into the abyss once again then - may not be the last time either.
11 and 12. There is much in what you say.
When Government ratings collapsed the feeling was that matters were out of control - certainly out of theirs. This was the ‘no more boom and bust’ govt who couldn’t even keep control our data.
The factors you set out have allowed people to think they have a handle on the situation. But David Roe is correct, the benefits of deflationary pressures are being felt before the costs. Furthermore, these ‘benefits’ are things the Govt falsely claim ‘credit’ for.
The pitfalls are obvious. Gordon waves his magic wand and in reality, nothing happens - or rather bad things still happen.
Or course not everyone will lose their job or their home.
But the negative effects are not confined to those who do.
There are relatives and friends, lost pensions endowments and savings and as Richard astutely points out, a loss of hope and achievable aspiration.
Re; 76 - What else could or should Brown/Darling have done at that point ? I’m no fan of stuffing public money into banks but the alternative which would have been to see RBS and possibly others sink is something to contemplate.
Yes, investors would have been protected but RBS and other banks had such toxic debts as to make them totally unattractive to any potential suitor in their entirety.
In addition, the lack of confidence in the banking system would surely have been enhanced had RBS or HBOS collapsed.
80 Britain’s manufacturing base was gradually destroyed over two decades, the 60’s and 70’s, mostly under Labour but also due to policies under Conservatives - “when I were a boy” most motor cycles were British, the UK car industry exported across the globe, Britain still had a cotton and textile industry (all those Pakistani & Indians bought in to Bradford etc to work in the mills), there were iron & steel mills and shipbuilding. All gone to glabalisation and cheaper labour.
Governments tried to “modernise” them through forced amalgamations, nationalisation and even taxation (remember Selective Employment Tax which tried to give an economic benefit to manufacturing over service industries?). British Leyland, British Shipbuilders, British Coal, British Steel etc. all were monuments to the failure of government intervention. The efforts put into propping them up and the subvention of investment away from new manufacturing opportunities in areas the UK could have been competitive killed off manufacturing not Margaret Thatcher.
79
One of these days someone will take you seriously - though obviously it won’t be Jack.
88 Sally
Nobody ever takes me seriously, least of all Jack.
Btw, congratulations on your succes. Best Newcomer was a competitive heat this year. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer poster.
re 79. PtP - I did look at the voting very closely and there was nothing I could find in any of the remaining ballots to suggest that anything untoward had taken place.
Voting for the overall winner, however, will be on a different basis. Individuals will have to send an email.
87 you dont expect the Tim13 to listen do you?
He/It is a chicane. Disigned only to bog you down.
86 - stodge - a couple of questions:
“RBS and other banks had such toxic debts as to make them totally unattractive to any potential suitor in their entirety.”
Do you think these debts have now magically disappeared?
“In addition, the lack of confidence in the banking system would surely have been enhanced had RBS or HBOS collapsed.”
Do you think the lack of confidence in the banking system has been rectified by their “rescue”?
82.
“Blunkett would never have allowed himself to get into the Jacqui Smith position of being ignorant of the arrest of an Opposition MP in a leak inquiry”
No, Blunkett would have got himself into a position where he himself should have been arrested for pillow-talking (leaking) state secrets to a guide dog from the Spectator.
75. I wouldn’t be so sure. First, they are essentially a banking and insurance outfit, who also happen to own a supermarket chain and others. Second, the accounts are up to January 08, and lots of banks looked just great then. Third, in these accounts they have about GBP3.5 bn invested in unlisted debt securities. Who knows what these might be, but it could include financial toxic waste. This is a big number for them (total shareholders equity is only GBP3.7bn.) Finally, operating cashflow was, near as dammit, zero. Not good for a large diversified business in Financial 2007.
But that is just on 5 minutes reading of the accounts, maybe there is more.
76 “Moody’s warned last week that it may downgrade RBS’s credit ratings over concerns about its huge exposures to commercial property”
The collapse in commercial property and its knock-on effects will be a huge story this coming year.
89. Did you have a punt at Leopardstown yesterday?
The NOM Party would appear to be in the doldrums.Their message is not getting through.It would be handy if Marjorie were to get more airtime or maybe she needs to sack her Shadow Chancellor.
I still have a lot of eggs in the NOM basket despite being convinced of a Tory victory.I am close to semi-dumping them via a Back of a Tory Overall as I lose the ranch if Labour get an Overall later than June 2009.
The SPINDEX move is sinister.Maybe there is a new Poll and maybe it is good for the Tories or perhaps it is simply good old money talking.
94. I assume that the “investments” were not bad, but as I noted I do wonder how their bank is doing, and under normal circumstances I would have said that it was equally split between financial services and retail, but given the recent scale of losses in banking generally, the risk to assets has probably increased from the banking side. The point to the Somerfield purchase was to give them scale - but it was done at the wrong point in the cycle. They dont look too bad to me at first glance.
96 Yokel
No.
Would you like to join the list of people I have invited to kick my ar*e this morning?
Will email anon. Am trying to work, believe it or not.
I’ll say it just once more. Buy Tory..or conversely sell Labour.
There is no obvious quick recovery. This is a proper recession and proper recessions dont last 6 months.
Re: 92 - First question, no, absolutely not.
Second question - I think bailing out RBS, HBOS and the others would have seemed at the time and in the crisis atmosphere to be the only sensible course of action. I also suspect the banking system was far closer to collapse than we know.
That said, the alternative solution would have been to allow the market process of merger/acquisition to take place leading to a re-capitalisation of the system as stronger banks took over weaker ones. Could this have worked ? Back to question one - would ANY suitor have bought into banks like RBS and HBOS given the amount of toxic debts on the books ? I suspect not.
With no buyers and the very real possibility of one or more major High Street banks on the cusp of collapse and with all the social and economic consequences of that - how many investors would have had to have seen their deposits paid back by the Government ? What measures would have been taken to prevent civil disorder as people queued to liquidate their assets in other banks and dragged those down as well ?
I’ve yet to see a conservative come up with a sensible or coherent alternative to that situation and sense of crisis. Yes, we can all blame Brown for getting us in the mess in the first place but you can’t respond to a crisis by doing nothing and blaming your predecessor. Conservatives and liberals have struggled to come to terms with what has happened whereas state interventionists have had an easy response mechanism.
99. Nah, its your money after all though yesterday sure beat working.
Mike, do you know if it’s possible to access historic information on the Econoimic Optimism Index? Google hasn’t turned it up. I’d b curious to know how it looked in the run up to previous elections - and the highest “get worse” level it has been at by a Govt. which has gone on to get re-elected.
86 Very few politicians or economists thought there was any alternative to re-capitalisation of banks. Problem is that only ensured they didn’t go broke, it did not return them to financial health.
Mr Blunkett’s article demonstrates the mistaken belief that saving the banks solved the crisis, it averted meltdown but restoring bank balance sheets, paying off the emergency loans isn’t a short term thing. The loss of asset values across banking, company and personal balance sheets has to be worked through.
I don’t think that as yet Brown and other Labour politicians really accept that this wasn’t a contagion an otherwise healthy UK economy caught from America but that the UK was an already weakened economy that was already itself infected.
62. Ted, that was MY suggestion The Sun has nicked.
Is my idea protected under copyright?
The could at least send me a bunch of flowers!
Or perhaps a bunch of tenners!
8 - In my view, the media needs to start reporting on events rather than deciding on the narrative themselves.
There is a difference between making the news and reporting on it, especially when it get’s political.
Think back to the Davis resignation. At first the BBC / Guardian etc went full-on Conservative split / Tories in Turmiol, then realised they were, in fact, making it up and backed off.
Just one example as several. All parties suffer of course, but recently the Tories especially - helping the Brown recovery.
Take Clegg’s £30 pension gaff. If that had been Cameron, we’d still be hearing about it now.
102 I was distracted by other pleasures. Sometimes getting drunk can be very expensive.
98. Ken. Any assumption about “investments” such as unlisted debt securities (which may well include mortgage backed securities, CDOs etc) being OK could prove to be well off the mark. As you say, they don’t look too bad at first glance, but at second….? Anyway, we won’t have long to wait before they publish their 2008 numbers, so we shall see.
106, quite. The yacht business was even worse.
“Top Tory doesn’t take illegal donation” isn’t exactly a headline. Or shouldn’t be.
During Brown’s time as PM he’s either been given ridiculous kudos or (even for him) unfair, blanket contempt. Thank god for pb.com. There’s not exactly a Labour majority here (like the next Parliament:p) but people do seem better at keeping things in perspective.
103 http://www.ipsos-mori.com/content/political-monitor-state-of-the-economy-economic-op.ashx
90 It’s OK, Mike. You wouldn’t have found anything anyway. I’m sure he rigged the ballot in his customary crafty and cunning way, leaving no trail.
Let the Old Rascal have his moment in the sun. He’ll be off to the embalmer soon, I’m sure, so what the heck.
And I wouldn’t want anybody to think I’m a bad loser.
Much.
Latest Election Results …. After Recount ….
Jacobite Party Gain Tipster Central and Political Betting South.
111 - Experienced Jacobites are waiting to see whether Jack W will take his customary holiday in the Far East this year. Normally the Tartan tipster likes to stay in the finest 5 star hotels, looking down from the Presidential Suite boundaries on the likes on seanT slumming it below.
However with rumours of insurgency circulating, there is a real danger that Peter the Punter of the MDC (Masters of Dodgy Coups) will launch a bid for power, and thus recognition as the supreme tipping authority on pb.com.
Jack W is thus in a bind - if he does take his holiday he risks being usurped in his absence; whereas if he stays at home he implicitly acknowledges the danger from the young whippersnapper. Which way will the Jacobite jump?
101.
A bail-out by a government with half-way decent finances is one thing, to stumble into an apparently on-going limitless funding guarantee with public debt due to top a trillion or more just brings closer the day when the whole house of cards collapses.
113 Aaron. Having recruited heavily in Broxtowe the Jacobites will repel all usurpers soundly !!
http://www.guy-sports.com/fun_pictures/cat_gun.jpg
I can confirm that I definitely did not see an angry mob of Jacobite Party thugs confiscate the TC&PBS ballot box, and even if they did (which they didn’t) it was for safekeeping to ensure that the correct man won. Such is the way of politics.
The Jacobite party is a legitimate political party.
OT and as mentioned the other day, good old bellicose comments from Iran about ‘taking action’ against Israel.
Evidence suggests that their proxies may go to work again in Lebanon because by all accounts Hamas has taken a pounding.
101 HMG probably had no choice but to step in with regard to RBS and others on the weekend of 11/12 October. If a retail and commercial bank of their size were to go bust, it would probably take down the entire banking system. Reading between the lines of John Varley’s letter to his staff with regard to Barclays capitalisation suggests as much. I suspect that when the papers are released in 30 years time, they will show that Brown was given the choice of ‘agree to this please PM, or run the risk of mass uncontrollable civil disorder next week’.
@117:
This is an interesting time for Israel: they have a unique opportunity to both crush Hamas and force Obama off the fence in public. Which way Obama jumps will go a long way to determining who will win Israel’s February general election.
110. The interesting thing about that poll is that the public ‘gloom factor’ was well ahead of the actual credit crunch. It was miserable in early 2008 and you have to go back as far as early 2000 to find a ‘net positive’. It is as if the public knew in it’s guts that something was wrong but could not put their finger on it: something akin to what is said to happen to jungle animals prior to an earthquake or tsunami. There has also been a sustained, quite deep, ‘net negativity’ since about 2002 with greater ‘net pessimism’ in both September 2001 and February 2003 than we have today. This, despite the sustained ‘no-bust’ boom apparent over most of that time. It would suggest a collective national gut understanding that things had no right to be as well as they appeared to be. The month-by-month volatility of the figures overall would suggest that a fair-sized section of the public are possibly understandably ignorant and easily-panicked over what causes (or cures) an economy as a whole. I might suggest that the 20 per cent who presently think that things can only get better are a mixture of serious optimists with those who are desperately conning themselves to stop themselves contemplating suicide!
116 Martin C. An utterly unbiased and insightful analysis from a highly rupatable source !!
Would that all comments were as searchingly accurate and determingly unbiased.
Answer to the question: yes. Will this recovery last - probably not. I already sensed a slight moodswing BEFORE Chrimbo. Soon the alka-seltzer will be plonking, and the Siberian winds will be whirling, and the mood will dip further.
Those who believe Labour will be politically resistant to recession angst - because of public sector support etc etc - possibly underestimate one thing. The Fear Factor. Yes most people will stay in work - but they will still be worried, for themselves, for friends and family, for their children especially.
People don’t vote for a government that causes them anxiety.
As for the pound, the euro parity argument seems a little passe, seeing as the quid is now worth just €1.02. In other words, for anyone changing money - it is now BELOW parity.
122
Seant T, your mood swings have been fairly violent of late(in terms of what you have posted), are you talking about your mood swing, or the dutch focus group?
123. I’m talking about my mum. She used to tolerate Labour, suddenly she has started to despise them. She is a bit bipolar.
117 re Iranian proxies in Lebanon. If Israel retaliates against Lebanon, she must be very careful not to catch any Russians in the crossfire.
What those who point not too disasterous retail sales figures are missing is that there is a domino effect in the production chain that will reach the sharp end of consumer spending very soon.
The initial signs of trouble were there in 2007.
BBCi “Hamas says 300 Palestinians have died since Saturday, while the UN says 56 civilians are dead.” - but most reports in papers and elsewhere use the Hamas figures. Just as the “1200″ figure provided by the Russians as the casualties of Georgia were stated as factual. Wonder what the real figures are in either case?
127. Both possibly. 300 Palestinians, 56 of them civilians.
But more likely somewhere between, leaning towards the UN figure.
127. UN counting civilian casualties not Hamas officials and police officers etc.
Re: 120 - Indeed, the economic “storm clouds” had been on the distant horizon for some time. As I recall, Northern Rock and the rise of oil had a lot to do with the increase in fear.
SeanT uses the “fear factor” and it’s been there for at least a year if not longer.
Thats a pretty impressive ratio from Israels perspective, especially given Gaza’s density. Doubt we could say the same about the Iraq campaign.
If only 56 of the 300 or so dead are not Hamas terrorists or their hired thugs, that’s pretty good ratio. It makes it harder to argue there’s a moral case for calling off the action when Israel’s managing to rain down death on exactly the people it should be killing.
126. Perhaps even a little earlier, at the end of 2006. In the final quarter of that year, growth in real disposable income slumped into negative territory - where it has remained, broadly speaking, ever since.
Freely available credit prolonged the spending boom through the first half of 2007, but once this was removed, the downward pressure on spending became irresistable.
The Tory poll lead in recent years has correlated quite well with trends in real disposable income. As a result, we might expect it to open out again in the next couple of quarters as unemployment rises…
And for those who bet on oil rising, like me, its up alright.
110 Thanks Ted. Just got back in from a quick Cornish cliff-top walk. Damn bracing out there!
Three line whip is suggesting a LD MP might defect to the Tories in 2009, probably from the SW, that is interesting, there must be some whispering going on?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/
The Israeli action was as targeted as it could be. There literally hasnt been as big a single air action since the Gulf War.
Despite all evidence that something was coming Hamas clearly didnt think it was coming when it did or as big as it did. At this time, those who hope that this will be another Lebanon from a while back with Israel struggling to get to grips with a miltary situation may forget it. The Israelis learn lessons.
The untold figure is likely higher as it is believed that the Israelis have hit a number of tunnels believed to contain a fair number of Hamas troops who were hiding out.
The Government appeared to present the bank bail-out and the PBR fiscal stimulus as the solution to the crisis. Job done. And economic optimism polling improved as a result. Just right for an election early in 2009…except that things got worse quicker than Brown anticipated, closing off that option.
We are now…sadder and wiser. More money is liely to be needed for the banks in 2009, selected companies will be bailed out, and the stimulus may be extended to printing money. Unemployment and repossessions will rocket. The Government will be buffetted by events, continually having to respond to them. Not a good way of improving poll ratings!
136, depends who it is. Laws would be bad news for the Lib Dems. Teather would be bad news for the Tories.
Maybe it’s…. Nick Clegg
138, will we know if it is printing money though?
As has been pointed out, some clause or other proposes to remove from the public sphere of knowledge the rate of printing money by the Bank of England.
136. Shall we have a book on the identity of this person?
Breed? Browne? Heath? George? Laws?
Browne my favourite…
139
Are you deputising for Martin Day ???
142, despite the economic downturn/recession/depression/apocalypse Morris Dancer remains a wholly independent poster, with a 100% stake in himself.
115. That makes a change from the last time the Jacobites were in the Broxtowe area, when they faffed about indecisively for a while then disappeared back off home!
132. I’d take into account other factors causing a disparity. The UN having fewer counters on the ground and looking for definitive proof, and Hamas not perhaps being overly trustworthy with their figures in such matters.
136. I’m pretty sure it’s just a Tory journalist creating online copy. But Breed would be my bet; if I recall correctly he’s stepping down at the next election anyway.
The bond markets are now pricing in a depression. The equity markets, not yet, but with more bank bail outs, full nationalisation etc quite possible early this year, who knows what will happen - could well be more extreme volatility and a second wave equities crash could well be a 50 / 50 bet, sad to say. I think many fund managers have adopted defensive strategies accordingly.
Quite an interesting in-depth piece on Boris:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article5394230.ece?token=null&offset=0&page=1
146 - I notice it isn’t one of Iain Dale’s predictions for 2009. One of the iron laws of politics is that this makes it much more likely to happen. I think it is the first time in living memory that Dale hasn’t predicted an imminent defection.
141 - yawn! What a shame Rik W does not still predict defections. What is the Tory score (plus or minus sitting MPs) in the last 15 years?
The retailers who survive jan are going to be ordering much less stock for 2009 than for 2008. So will shed back office jobs come what may.
They will also close underperforming stores which now lose money(although as competitors close, there is an end point to this).
As others have said, the real bad news is in commercial property. As this grinds to a halt the construction industry, which can have an 18 month lag to the economy, will grind to a halt. Many job losses here sad to say. Also in proffessional services too - as the banks shed staff and activity, there will be less need for accountants and lawyers; more insolvency and disputes, but less work overall. The city job losses will create a chain reaction that will take time to work its way through.
144 David H. And to think I voted for you in the “Not The Usual Tory Pillock” contest !!
Bring back Sean Fear !!
151. Estimates of possible bank losses from commercial property have reached as much as £70 billion, around double the government’s capital injections to date…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/4000183/UK-banks-face-70bn-property-bombshell.html
These look a little on the high side, but the scale looks certain to be sufficient to require another bail out. And you can forget entirely about ‘kickstarting lending’…
The incredible thing is banks were continuing to lend hand over fist to the sector even after the credit crunch began.
37-Seems pretty good! Just bought 8 bottles of Karaganda Draft for £4.70, but they are 0.5L.:-)
150 - SBS I don’t predict defections but I give my views on Ken Clarke’s return (or otherwise) to the Shadow Cabinet here: http://richardwillisuk.wordpress.com
136.
That James Kirkup on Three Line Whip looks like my millkman’s ‘boy’ (thick and ugly) and obviously has the same amount of political judgement. Where do they get them from? The Aveit School of Political Science?
143.
So Morris Dancer is…. “a wholly independent poster, with a 100% stake in himself.” Oak through the heart I presume but still pumping. A sort of undead Martin Day?
155 Hey, there’s a rare and welcome sighting! Rik W is back!!!!!!!!!!
141 - Laws was offered Shadow Cabinet post by Osborne if he defected, and he not only refused, but rebuffed him in no uncertain terms in the media. Very unlikely.
My first thought was Heath - he was facing a hell of a challenge from ‘We want a referendum’, and in the end rebelled against Clegg’s first 3-line-whip (to abstain) by supporting a referendum on Lisbon. He is facing Annunziata Rees-Mogg in Somerton & Frome, and this would be the only way he would keep his seat. That said, I can’t see the party wanting to undermine an A-list, high-profile candidate, and on non-EU matters, Heath is quite leftyish.
Other SW Lib Dems are: Nick Harvey, Andrew George, Steve Webb, Matthew Taylor, Colin Breed, Richard Younger-Ross, Annette Brooke, Stephen Williams, Donald Foster, Daniel Rogerson, Martin Horwood, Adrian Sanders, and Jeremy Browne.
Steve Webb in revenge for Clegg’s comments about him?
156
Wage slave, I hardly think that dismissing someones blog post because you dont like the cut of their jib is sound judgement.
I have bookmarked your comment, lets see what happens in 2009. Nothing can be ruled out or in.
158 - thanks Peter but I have been back for a few threads now
If Labour have managed to persuade people (or if people have persuaded themselves) that last summer’s absolute bottom in terms of economic confidence is the baseline by which Labour success should be measured, then Labour have achieved a political feat to be envied by governments the world over. For example, wouldn’t Bush have loved to have his presidency measured by how well things were going in Iraq compared to the absolute worst months of that conflict? Truly remarkable, if the analysis summarized in Mike’s article is an accurate description of reality.
Rik W please see my comment about your blog address on the earlier thread. I was not winding you up. Your enemies will make hay if you don’t.
Witan, If that’s the worst they can do then good luck to them!
Rik for goodness sake these things matter. Details can kill.
Witan, if Rik chooses to operatate a porno site, that is up to him. It´s a free country.
But I don´t think he ought to promote it on PBC.
Mike - you really do have very stylish handwriting as evidenced at the top of this thread. It’s extraordinarily similar to the persistent guy who keeps writing to me from Littlewoods Pools.
148.
Interesting article that: A Tory writing in a Tory paper says three times that Boris doesn’t like Chamereon much, and knows he’s a lot cleverer than him, then distinguishes himself (from his leader?) by saying:
“I haven’t had to have a w@nk for 20 years.”
Well, with all that hanging out at the Spectator, as David Blunkett and Rod Liddle would tell us, he wouldn’t, would he?
160.
I agree that we shall see. A die that must end up with the three facing up eventually? Or a hunt for a pork fillet in a kosher butchers?
But if I looked that ugly I would make sure I either didn’t have a photo up or had a decent one taken. As for the content of the article, it smacks of lazy journalism: an unsourced repeat of an article we must have seen recycled every year for the past decade.
I was under the impression that Labour’s position vis a vis the electorate would be better with a declining economy — for the insecurity generated by a severe recession would prompt the people to rely more on the State, to wish for an expansion of the Nanny state, rather than a contraction of it.
In short, the Wells’s thesis seems counter-intuitive to me: why would the people vote for a Conservative, free-market-oriented government at a time when they will feel deeply insecure about their mortgage, their job, the price of bread ?…
If Philippe Magnan is out there: you may yet win your anti-Caroline Kennedy bet in spite of having defied the advice of Morus. As Doris Kearns Goodwin puts it, “[t]he wheels of the bandwagon are coming off. Fantasy is giving way to inescapable truth. That truth is that Kennedy is not ready for the job and doesn’t deserve it. Somebody who loves her should tell her.”
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2008/12/28/2008-12-28_say_goodnight_caroline_how_jfks_daughter.html
170- Sorry, big mistake…
NOT Doris Kearns Goodwin, but rather another fellow named Goodwin. Still, doesn’t look good for Kennedy.
171 - Yes, her stock is falling fast since that awful interview she gave. I still think she stands a better than evens chance, simply because of the lack of a plausible alternative. I quite like Nadler, but can’t see him getting it. If nepotism stops Kennedy, it would be ironic to give it to the equally lacklustre Cuomo.
She still has Bloomberg on her side, but there is hope that she will be denied.
I was of the same opinion of you since the beginning of the latest Labour bounce, and still am. It seems a bit strange for people to be judging Labour based on things having “improved” since last summer. Instead, they are running to the perceived relative safety of socialism (or at least the closest available approximation of socialism), through the Labour Party.
161 Well welcome back anyway, Rik. I’ve not been around much myself recently, so forgive the oversight.
171 — Yeah… The multimillionaire lady who never really worked in her lifetime is @ 55% on Intrade since a two or tree days.
As another guy said: she kind of flopped her audition for the job…
re 167 are the pools companies still operating? I thought they were long dead.
“because of the lack of a plausible alternative…”
As I wrote before, that argument seems inane to me, for New York is not a state lacking in talented, energetic and creative people…
178 - I think New York is actually a harder place to pick an obvious candidate for that reason.
In a smaller, less-populous state, a leading businessman might well be seen as a viable Senate candidate, but New York has tens of thousands of very wealthy sucessful people. The exceptionalism and stature required to be a US Senator might mean that New Yorkers set a higher bar regarding history of political involvement and media profile.
Picking someone who is acceptable to upstate and progressive enough in the eyes of NYC also seems to be a problem for the Democrats.
It’s not that there’s a lack of good potential candidates, rather that there is a surfeit of good candidates, but not one or two who seem to be clear frontrunners.
176/178- If the Democratic Party doesn’t have any credible Senate candidates other than Caroline Kennedy in the state of New York, the third most populous state in the country and also completely dominated by Democrats, that’s a pretty sad statement about the Democratic Party. Actually, it seems to me that there are plenty of credible candidates, but New York politics is anything but meritocratic so I wouldn’t expect merit to play much of a role in the matter.
179.
So you do interviews, short-list, caucus and a quick selection?
Since I read The Cash Nexus, I’m a fan of Niall Ferguson.
He just published an interesting paper: An Imaginary Retrospective of 2009
http://www.intentblog.com/archives/2008/12/an_imaginary_re.html
Extract :”By the first quarter of 2009, however, the mood in Europe had darkened. It became apparent that the problems of the European banks were just as serious as those of their American counterparts. Indeed, the short-term liabilities of the Belgian, Swiss, British and Italian banks were far larger in relation to those countries’ economies, while the German, French and Danish banks were much more dangerously leveraged. Moreover, in the absence of a European-wide finance ministry, all talk of a European stimulus package was just that - mere talk. In practice, fiscal policy became a matter of sauve qui peut, with each European country improvising its own bailout and its own stimulus package. The result was a mess. Currencies outside the Euro area were afflicted by severe volatility. Inside the Euro area, the volatility was in the bond market, with spreads on Greek and Italian bonds exploding relative to German bunds.
The picture was even worse in most emerging markets. …”
Politico : “political handicapping is an inexact science”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1208/16879.html
Indeed. It’s an art, where gut feelings play as large a part as abstract thinking….
One of the best bet of 2009 : buying oil now…
“Oil jumps to near $40 as Israel-Gaza clash widens”
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/news/ap/finance_business/2008/Dec/29/oil_jumps_to_near__40_as_israel_gaza_clash_widens.html
159. Steve Webb? You must be kidding.
185 - I was, yes!
177. I thought Laddies bought them. Destroyed by the Tories!!!
152.
I’ve allways wanted to ask: are SeanT and Sean Fear two distinct people or conjoined twins, or even two seperate guy’s?
!80. You are so right. NY state has hundreds of top drawer Democrats, so it’s a pity the party organization is in such turmoil over this Kennedy pick.
188 - Two men so distinct that I never thought that question would ever be asked!
They are both very clever, dangerously funny and called Sean, but that’s where the comparison ends.
Victor Davis Hanson on The Media and C.K. :
” [M]ost NY-DC journalists … apparently still assume that old money, status, and an Ivy-League pedigree are reliable barometers of talent and sobriety, suggesting that the upper-East Side Kennedy’s public ineptness is an aberration, a bad day, a minor distraction, while Palin’s charisma and ease are superficial and a natural reflection of her Idaho sports journalism degree.”
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmU5ZTVlMWZlOTA3ODI3NWU3OTI2N2FmOTYzYjAwNjI=
189. Have you noticed Morus they almost never apear together on a thread, at least since I joined PB in late summer.
Phillipe @ 182- Nobody likes a smart-arse,except Jack W !
I followed the link with eager anticipation but was underwhelmed.
Best Wishes.
Obama and Brown in 2009
“As host of the G20 summit in London in April, the Prime Minister has the chance to dramatise and strengthen his self-appointed role as world saviour, basking in the glow from Mr Obama’s 1,000 megawatt smile. And if the new First Lady comes along, there will be pictures aplenty of Michelle Obama and Sarah Brown “sharing a joke”.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/matthewd_ancona/3981754/Will-Barack-Obama-help-Gordon-Brown-in-2009.html
193- As far as I know, the Obamas are still looking for a dog for their new home. How about a Brown poodle?
132. “If only 56 of the 300 or so dead are not Hamas terrorists or their hired thugs, that’s pretty good ratio. It makes it harder to argue there’s a moral case for calling off the action when Israel’s managing to rain down death on exactly the people it should be killing.”
That’s probably the most distasteful thing I’ve ever read here.
“The UNRWA spokesman is on tv as I speak. His name is Guiness and he just told us that 7 schoolchildren were killed by the bombing in an UNRWA school in Gaza today.” (Landandpeople.blogspot.)
I wonder who the other 49 were in this ‘pretty good ratio’?
“As far as I know, the Obamas are still looking for a dog for their new home.”
Is ‘the magic Negro’ — oh, how we laughed! — in need of a homonculous? Failing that, Rush Limbaugh recommends Chelsea Clinton.
195. Moral outrage is all very well and oh so easy as the left loves to defend the Muslim brotherhood against the evil Jew. But all it achieves is the polarisation exemplified by this comment. in short it is exactly what the extremists ON BOTH SIDES want!
192 - Sorry to read that, Mistah URW!
Even if you don’t follow my links anymore, be sure that I will still evaluate closely your betting tips in 2009!
BTW, I liked that smart-assed paragraph:
“The crux of the problem was the fundamental insolvency of the major banks, another reality that policymakers sought to repress. In 2008, the Bank of England had estimated total losses on toxic assets at about USD 2.8 trillion. Yet total bank writedowns by the end of 2008 were little more than USD 583bn, while total capital raised was just USD 435bn. Losses, in other words, were either being massively understated, or they had been incurred outside the banking system. Either way, the system of credit creation had broken down. The banks could not contract their balance sheets because of a host of pre-arranged credit lines, which their clients were now desperately drawing on, while their only source of new capital was the US Treasury, which had to contend with an increasingly sceptical Congress. The other credit-creating institutions - especially the markets for asset-backed securities - were all but paralysed.”
———
194 - lol
Well said. Israel’s justification for its actions is that fourteen civilians has been killed by Hamas in the last seven years, so if Israel have killed 56 civilians in the last forty-eight hours the moral problem is fairly obvious, regardless of any ‘ratio’. An inaccuracy rate of 20% doesn’t seem all that impressive to me anyway.
199. Sorry, my post was a reply to 195.
196- I like those dancing poodles wearing tutus like you’d see in those old newsreels. If the PM reads this blog, maybe that could give him a few ideas to prepare for his big audition.
199 — “Israel’s justification for its actions is that fourteen civilians has been killed by Hamas in the last seven years”
You must know very well that the situation is more complex than that.
Well said,scampi.A hundred thousand Africans could be specifically slaughtered for their tribal allegiances or religious affiliations and the likes of derek wouldn’t consider it worthy of comment.
Only the attempts of Israel to defend its nation provoke this DeRECK person.
201 — like this ?
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3148/2956243249_7bd0947210.jpg?v=0
Not manly enough for the British poodle of the world saviour….
194. I’ve got the impression that the democrats aren’t too fond of the British for going along with the iraq war. I think we’re liable to get snubbed for France and/or Germany.
202. “You must know very well that the situation is more complex than that.”
Explain how. Israel’s justification is exactly as I stated.
205. ” France and/or Germany”
Or Yurp as the American’s like to call them.
204- You can’t say no to a face like that.
206 — Errr… Israel is fighting since her inception for its very existence, for the viability of her territory and the freedom of her people.
re 203 Not at all. Israel’s completely murderous over reaction is what inflames us - and I’m a long way from being a lefty. Israel has every right to defend itself and it’s a tragedy that - egged on by the Americans - the successive Israeli governments since Rabin have consistently done the most stupid thing imaginable.
re 209 you don’t do anything to promote the “freedom of [your] people” by stealing your neighbour’s land and herding them into what is effectively a large prison camp
206. I will not dignify you with a name.
For years now Hamas have been firing ever increasingly potent rockets into Israel.
Hamas (in case it escaped your notice) is a political movement whose stated aim is the annihilation of The State Of Israel.
Do you endorse this aim ?.In my experience many who post like you, do so, but are not man enough to say so.
206. Red Meteor
Israel’s justification is that Hamas are raining down rockets onto innocent Israeli civilians. If only one person or, indeed, no people were killed, it would still be an intolerable situation and entirely justifies the actions the Israelis have taken.
We wouldn’t stand for it - why should they?
209. Helpfully, the Palestinians have the same argument. It’s not really clearcut at all.
205- I don’t know how much appetite for vengeance against the Brits exists within the Democratic Party, or the Obama administration. The Democrats’ mythology that Bush decided to “go it alone” as well as their belief that everyone in the world hated Bush should make it unlikely that they will want to make enemies of the British, as well as the fact that the Brits are generally about the easiest foreign country to get along with anyway. Why throw that away? Also, Merkel and Sarkozy are European symbols of conservatism while Brown is more ideologically aligned with Obama. As far as whether there are any particular inclinations in favor of or against any particular European countries within the administration, I don’t believe that has become apparent yet (although I’m pretty sure Obama won’t be very close to Berlusconi).
210. I’m afraid ur not listening. What is happening in the ME is awful but outrage over these individual incidents in a much more complex picture simplifies it into a “evil jew” ” good muslim” comparator which does nothing but feed the extremism on each side.
206. “Israel is fighting since her inception for its very existence, for the viability of her territory and the freedom of her people.”
Come off it. Israel’s existence may have been threatened in the past, but it’s hardly threatened by a barrage of pathetic home-made rockets that have managed to kill fourteen people in seven years. In the meantime, the Palestinians are also fighting for their “existence” as a state, the “freedom” of their people, and the “viability” of their territory. The difference is that Israel have all of these things at present, and the Palestinians have none. The reason that the Palestinians have none is that Israel have denied them all of these things. If the reasons you set out are justifications for war, which side has the greater cause to fight?
213. You are the same ugly little f*cker who asked for Palestinians to be “annihilated” last night.
Ugh.
The fact is Britain HAS faced a situation with similarities to the Palestine problem in living memory. Not so long ago we were being blown up in our own cities by the Irish.
If Britain had reacted the same way as Israel, in response to, say, the Warrington bomb, we would have rained missiles down on West Belfast and Derry City, slaughtering children and women, and killing ten Catholics in Ulster for every Brit blown up in England.
Would that have helped? Would we now have an Irish peace process, if that’s how we’d reacted?
213
Quite right Gabble.
#
And a vlear explanation of why we bombed Dublin after the IRA bombings in Manchester, London and Birmingham. Terrorism should always be met with overwhelming violence..
From D :
“Iran orders Muslims to defend Palestinians… ”
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKHOS84274820081228?sp=true
“All Palestinian combatants and all the Islamic world’s pious people are obliged to defend the defenceless women, children and people in Gaza in any way possible,” Khamenei said.
“Whoever is killed in this legitimate defence, is considered a martyr,” he said in a statement.
re 213 Gabble that’s stupid even for you. I don’t remember the rockets whizzing across the Irish Sea nor the bombing raids on Dublin in the 1970s and 1980s. We were as much provoked then, but thank God the Biriths government were sensible as much as the Israeli one is stupid.
213. “Israel’s justification is that Hamas are raining down rockets onto innocent Israeli civilians. If only one person or, indeed, no people were killed, it would still be an intolerable situation and entirely justifies the actions the Israelis have taken.
We wouldn’t stand for it - why should they?”
Gabble, you have noticed that 56 innocent Palestinian civilians (including several children) have just been murdered by Israel, haven’t you? By your code of ethics, should the Palestinian people “stand for it”? What kind of massive retaliation does that justify?
203. Are you a wind-up merchant?
Who are you to assume what my views on Africa are?
It’s staggering that I can’t express distaste at kill ratios without the insinuation that I’m some sort of doctrinaire anti-zionist.
For what it’s worth, Israel and Hamas use each other cynically to promote their aims. Like Bush and Bin laden they need each other. One is nothing without the other.
But that’s all probably a bit too deep for you.
I have to declare an interest here.I am a Jew !….in case you hadn’t guessed.
My take on the world is virtually unique.
The holocaust was not the work of The Third World or The Arab World or even of Islamist Terrorists.
It was the doing of ‘civilised’ people just like some of you.
So my internet quest is to deconstruct YOU.You are the people who were the midwives of the first holocaust and are doing your bit to provoke the next.
Your hatred of the Jewish people is unique and you all have best friends who are Jewish.
I will not go gently……….
213- I finally have cause to agree with Gabble about something (although we have never fought either). At the very least, the casualty ratio between the combatants should not be considered a valid basis for determining who is more or less in the right. Using such an analysis would make Japan and Germany the wronged victims of the U.S. and the UK, for example.
217. “If the reasons you set out are justifications for war, which side has the greater cause to fight?”
Again this is simply polarising the conflict and feeding the extremists on both sides. If it was simple to solve this conflict which goes back to the 1920s at least, then the solution would have long since happened. Ultimately Hamas have to be the bad guys as they wish for the total destruction of Israel & will not accept a 2 state solution which is clearly the only long-term way forward.
Like they say — If the “war on terror” mindset had prevailed during the time of the Cuban missile crisis, there wouldn’t be any terrorists or tyrants in the world today.
Why, there wouldn’t be ANYBODY in the world today!
URW @ 224. “I have to declare an interest here.I am a Jew !….in case you hadn’t guessed”
Don’t worry mate, we guessed. And us guilt-ridden goyim have had enough of Jews justifying their butchery of Palestinians by referring to the Holocaust.
The Israeli state is like a child-abuser, who excuses his actions because he himself was abused in the past. At some point someone has to stop the kiddiefiddling.
217 The situation of the Palestinian people is tragic: they are a people without territory.
Why is the islamic world not hosting them? — for the Palestinians are muslim, aren’t they?
Maybe : Because they are used by the Global Jihad as tool to spoonsor hatred against Jews and Israel (in the same way that the Kashimiris are used against Hindus and India)…
228-Spoken like a true wit.I didn’t vote for you BTW.
226. Scampi, I am not pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel. I think both states should exist. But it’s a statement of the obvious that only one of those states exist at present and that one is Israel, and the reason that the other does not exist is that Israel prevents it happening. So it’s a bit rich for every Israeli action to be justified on the grounds of “defending Israel’s existence”.
It’s also a bit rich for you to complain about others “polarising” the conflict and then go on to to declare that one side are “the bad guys”!
195
One civilian death is too many. But I do make a distinction between civilian deaths caused by direct targeting of civilians in the name of terror and civilian deaths caused as a result of military action targetting military installations. Even so if the latter deaths are as a result of the military not caring if they have collateral damage or not taking sufficient measures to try and prevent it then that is also unacceptable.
However in the end if a nation is to defend itself against aggression particularly by irregular but still deadly forces such as those deployed by Hamas then civilian deaths are inevitable
If you are advocating that the alternative is to let an enemy fire missiles at you without response then I am afraid you are not living in the real world.
230. I lost the Jewish vote! Oh no, what will I do?? lol.
Memo to Israel: stop killing children. Bad PR.
195. Derek, how come you are not so exercised by the deaths of these muslim schoolchildren in Afghanistan? More than the reported deaths of Palestinian schoolchildren in Gaza over the weekend.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081228/ap_on_re_as/as_afghanistan
You are a perfect example of those for whom the deaths of muslim children only matter depending upon who killed them. A moral cretin in other words.
The PB Poster of 2008: the Final round - new thread
If our country was being regularly rocketed from a neighbouring country, I would fully expect our government to hunt down and destroy the perpetrators.
The first duty of any democratic government is the security of it’s people.
The comparison with Ireland is completely wrong-headed. The IRA did not govern Ireland - if they had, of course we would have been justified in dismantling it’s apparatus in response to their terrorist acts. As it was, we (and the Irish) targeted and attempted to disarm the terrorists on both sides. This is exactly what the Israelis are doing - they deserve our support.
229. “Why is the islamic world not hosting them? — for the Palestinians are muslim, aren’t they?
Maybe : Because they are used by the Global Jihad as tool to spoonsor hatred against Jews and Israel (in the same way that the Kashimiris are used against Hindus and India)…”
Or more probably, because your thesis is incorrect - the Palestinians are a people with internationally-recognised territory, and that territory is Gaza and the West Bank.
re 224 URW you could probably get that persecution complex treated you know. Not all Jeiwsh people seem to suffer from it.
229. Contrary to what seems to be popular belief, Islam and Arab are not entirely homogenous, any more than Christian and European are.
From a purely practical point which country wants to absorb 4 million poor (I’m assuming) people in one go.
From a PR standpoint it’s surrender, and a leader espousing it would be publically abused by most of the other leaders.
Lastly the Palestinians seem pretty firm about their desires not to move.
188 Sean T and I are definitely separate people.
231. Again - a failure to listen and understand the nuances of the conflict. Hamas is not Palestine - you forget the West Bank where Abbas and Fatah actually seeks a dialogue with Israel & from which a 2 state solution could still emerge. Hamas are the group which will only consider a one state solution - one involving the destruction of Israel.
234. The extraordinary thing about this thread is the willingness of other people to tell me what I’m thinking.
First it was Africa, and now it’s your tendentious twaddle.
How do you know I’m not ‘exercised’ by these deaths? Don’t assume otherwise.
I was merely commenting on kill ratios as expressed in 132.
IIn this case, the ‘cretin’ is the one who doesn’t follow the argument.
Interesting that those who leap up and attack Israel on the basis that it is ’stealing land’ (which actually it is but that has nothing to do with this particular situation) fail to notice that it is not the West Bank arabs who are throwing missiles or even firing guns (of which they have plenty) in spite of the fact it is they who are living primarily under the Israeli occupation and it is they who are primarily having their land stolen.
Both the Palestinian president and the Egyptians have pointedly refused to support Hamas and have effectively said they brought this on themselves.
Shame the western apologists for terror and the anti semites can’t see this.
And since URW felt it appropriate to make his position clear I will do the same. I am not Jewish and do not support the right of Israel to steal land in the West Bank. I do however support their right to defend themselves when attacked. If Hamas choose to hide amongst women and children then it is they, not the Israelis who are responsible.
155 = Good to see Rik W appear here again. So ashamed to have agree with him on calibre of Grayling and DD (but not Ken Clarke). But sometimes you have to agree with a Tory… any views on Labour’s Royal Mail part privatisation…?
209.212.213 Despite your protests , Israel have went over the top many times , Hamas deserve all they get but Israel has done a lot of not so nice things either , and maybe if they had really wanted peace and got out of Gaza and West Bank long ago they could hold the moral high ground. They do some pretty despicable stuff re the civilian populations. Its not all as one sided as you make out.
224. That post is insane, you need help