When will the new media be given the green light?
November 21st, 2008
Why Linford’s right about bloggers in the lobby
The former Westminster journalist and now leading blogger, Paul Linford, is stepping up his calls for members of the new media, bloggers, to be allowed into the lobby.
He notes: “…what we must now call the Big Five political blogs are, by virtue of their size, influence, and networks, practically part of the mainstream media already. They are, in no particular order, Iain Dale’s Diary, Guido Fawkes, Political Betting, Conservative Home and the most recent newcomer to the elite, Liberal Conspiracy. In my view, all should be in the lobby.”
The convergence with the mainstream media has taken on a new dimension with the move by my friend Jonathan Isaby from the Daily Telegraph to ConservativeHome. I don’t know whether Jonathan will be applying for membership but it could set the precedent.
Since giving up my day job to concentrate on PB I’m now a full-time political journalist and whenever I am invited to Westminster for one reason or another I find it an illuminating experience. I always come away with ideas and insights which are reflected here.
It’s all been made more complicated by the fact that a number of members of the lobby now run or contribute to successful blogs themselves. Just look at Ben Brogan’s, Adam Boulton’s, Kevin Maguire’s, the Spectator CoffeeHouse and what’s now on my “must read” list John Rentoul in the Indy’s “Open House”.
The Lobby chair, Ben Brogan, has recently been quoted as saying that the issue is being discussed but the Commons authorities are “very reluctant to start issuing passes to new media outlets.”
Let’s hope that’s there is some movement.
HAT-TIP: LS on the previous thread.
Mike Smithson
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I doubt that Guido would get a pass!
Be honest, Mike - did you find that yourself?
The establishment is very reluctant to let the anti-establishment ringleaders in. Well there’s a surprise. Where might it end? Politicians acting in the interests of the people - god forbid!
re 2. LS I should have given you a credit - thanks for spotting in and raising the issue on the previous thread.
Reminds me of the ultra-modern hi-tech (Feb) 1974 general election, in which Enoch Powell found out the result by seeing the headline on the morning’s newspaper. I wonder what he would have thought of us lot?
Timeo Danaos et donas ferentes. Distance lends perspective and the lobby journalists move too much as a herd. Even if you were ever issued a lobby pass, I would use it judiciously if I were you.
Gabble Check List for Friday, November 21, 2008
FTSE 100 opens at 3874.99 - (Nikkei closes up 207.75)
Optimistic milestones to watch for:
4455.60 - up 580.61 (14.98%) to return to 2nd May 1997 level
4758.74 - up 883.75 (22.81%) to match DOW performance since 2 May 97
5001.15 - up 1126.16 (29.06%) to match CAC performance since 2 May 97
5385.90 - up 1510.91 (38.99%) to come out of current bear market
5433.92 - up 1558.93 (40.23%) to match DAX performance since 2 May 97
6330.07 - up 2455.08 (63.36%) to match inflation (42.07%) since 2 May 97
6527.60 - up 2652.51 (68.45%) to return to Blair’s 27th June 2007 level
6930.20 - up 3055.21 (78.84%) to equal all-time high on 30 Dec 99
Pessimistic milestones to watch for:
3460.00 - down 414.99 (-10.71%) to reach Madasafish’s interim low
3287.00 - down 587.99 (-15.17%) to return to Blair’s low on 12 Mar 03
2780.00 - down 1094.99 (-28.26%) to reach Madasafish’s low low
2144.30 - down 1730.69 (-44.66%) to return to 28th Nov 90 (exit Maggie!)
According to a Labour party spokesperson, the direction of the stock market is important for savers and pension funds over the long term, but not the main concern at the moment.
It is, however, more than a little worrying that the FTSE 100 is now significantly closer to the level bequeathed by Margaret Thatcher 18 years ago than that bequeathed by Tony Blair last year.
Where does it end? It would cost a couple of hundred million to buy a national newspaper but anyone can set up a blog for, well, nothing. Is that the price of entry? How big is this lobby?
In any case, maybe the spectator sees more of the game. Predictions on pbcom and similar sites seem more accurate than those from insiders in Britain, America and elsewhere.
I wonder if this is truw as well - spectator seeing more of the game. This blog is fantastic , not sure it would be made better by being part of the lobby. The insights from posters are often as illuminating as you read in the politics section of any newspaper!
Certainly no blogger could get away with blatantly dishonest headlines like those above today’s Independent article by their Political Editor, Andrew Grice.
The facts:
“A ComRes survey (of 233 businessmen)for The Independent shows that the Chancellor has recovered ground among business leaders, rising from his disastrously low “confidence rating” of just 9 per cent after he presented his Budget this spring to 27 per cent now, as he prepares to deliver a mini-Budget designed to limit the impact of the downturn on Monday.
The poll of business people found that confidence in Mr Osborne has fallen from 52 per cent to 34 per cent over the same period. The shadow Chancellor’s response to the downturn has been criticised as lacklustre by some Tory critics.
Similarly, confidence in Gordon Brown has risen from 18 per cent in April to 39 per cent now, while David Cameron’s confidence rating has dropped from 67 per cent to 54 per cent.”
The headlines:
“Business backs Brown and Darling
Poll for The Independent shows the Tories plunging to new low after financial crisis
Alistair Darling’s ratings among Britain’s business leaders have risen to an all-time high, while confidence in his Tory shadow, George Osborne, has sunk to a new low.”
Er … yes, of course!
How do these clowns keep their jobs?
A ComRes survey for The Independent shows that the Chancellor has recovered ground among business leaders, rising from his disastrously low “confidence rating” of just 9 per cent after he presented his Budget this spring to 27 per cent now, as he prepares to deliver a mini-Budget designed to limit the impact of the downturn on Monday.
The poll of business people found that confidence in Mr Osborne has fallen from 52 per cent to 34 per cent over the same period. The shadow Chancellor’s response to the downturn has been criticised as lacklustre by some Tory critics.
Similarly, confidence in Gordon Brown has risen from 18 per cent in April to 39 per cent now, while David Cameron’s confidence rating has dropped from 67 per cent to 54 per cent.
7
I may have to revise my “low low” at some future date.
It depends on events # but I cannot see a revision upwards…unless world economies drastically improve.
(I was thinking c 2000 but don’t quote me .. yet)
# but charts foretell them anyway
I imagine there are physical space constraints, for a start.
Also, at present the politicians know that the lobby consists of trained journalists who understand the law of libel and so forth - I’m not saying bloggers don’t (I think we do) but there are no “quality control” standards.
If it were to happen, no doubt it would start with an experiment of issuing a handful of passes for a limited period. How the heck would the lucky bloggers be selected? Patronage? Lottery? Auction?
It would also be interesting to know how many people read Paul’s “gold standard” blogs by comparison with those who read the op-ed pages in the broadsheets. Maybe the numbers are comparable, but evidence would be interesting.
11 I’m calling 1700 (ish) personally (based on the charts plus the overshoot of the Nikkei coming off of 39,000) but will be buying for selective long term holds from 2500.
I know I don’t need to convince you, but the message remains simple. Keep selling rallies UFN !
Regards
TB
4.
Wow! I thought you might have seen it anyway…
I hereby officially Am Wearing A Silly Grin For Inspiring A PB Thread for the rest of the day
There are two aspects to this - a Commons pass, and access to lobby briefings.
The former is limited by the House authorities. They are routinely parsimonious in handing out passes, because more passes mean a bigger security challenge and simply more crodwing - the canteens already have long queues at peak times. For example, I’m not able to get a pass for all my constituency staff. The odd extra one is obviously no big deal, but they’d fight any attempt to create a whole new class of people entitled to passes, and selecting one or two bloggers would be tricky. A bodge is for bloggers to get on an MP’s staff. I’ve never employed someone exclusively for research, but many MPs do, and any decent blogger would be likely to be an excellent researcher.
The latter is a question of mutual trust. The lobby have more access to Number 10 briefings but agree to respect conventions, essentially not to break deadline embragos and quote the information without press spin - e.g. you’ll never read a report that the spokesman ‘looked sweaty and nervous as he explained the Government’s position’ even if he did. One paper (the Guardian?) opted out of the briefings for a while, feeling they were too cosy, but later decided they were missing too much information. I don’t think some of the bloggers fit naturally in this sort of framework, or would want to.
15 - The Independent opted out of lobby briefings first, and the Guardian followed.
Hmm. Interesting idea. I certainly think certain blogs (like this one:p) should be given the chance, at least on a trial basis, to see how it works.
Parliament can pretend the internet doesn’t exist, but it’s where more and more people get their news and also home to some of the best articles in journalism. Mike’s polling knowledge, for example, is invaluable in showing where polls may be invalid.
According to ConHome the Ulster Unionists are backing a propsoed alliance with the Tories:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/11/ulster-unionist.html
It is not a merger, but an alliance.
‘Lisbon treaty storms through Swedish parliament’
http://euobserver.com/9/27154
That just leaves the Czech Republic and Ireland to go.
What is the situation with the Åland Islands and Gibraltar? Must their legislatures also ratify the treaty? See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisbon_treaty#Ratification_statuses_at_a_glance
19, and us, perhaps.
Also, nice to see you on:)
I wonder if the treaty will play a role in deciding the electoral date. Not a major one, but perhaps a consideration.
Hehe, just read the first threescore comments on Robinson’s latest blog. Quite hilarious. About 1 or 2 are in favour and all the rest slate him for being a biased cock. Particularly amusing as propaganda only works if people believe it.
Another membership list expose !!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1087974/LITTLEJOHN-Exposed-The-sinister-secrets-Labours-party-list.html
1 in 5 houses for sale is a repo/forced sale
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article5202124.ece
No more boom and bust !
There is very significant opposition to getting too close to the Tories even though there is no doubt that there is a fairly well defined and equally significant element of the UU that is pretty much Tory in all but name.
A merger would have been next to impossible to achieve at this time anyway as it would split the party very badly.
24, interesting to see how it plays. Can’t imagine it having a significant impact on mainland politics, but will it be boon or bane for the UUP?
Is the SDLP in a similar allied arrangement with Labour?
More bad news on Jobs, this time from Honda.
Honda is to shut its UK factory in Swindon for two months in February and March next year in response to falling sales.
The plant’s 5,000 employees will be laid off for the duration of the closure without pay.
26 That’s two seats lost for Labour then in a snap election….
I see you left out Politics Home from your list Mike, but I don’t blame you - Very dull and not really a bloggers paradise.
John Lewis Dept. stores last week -14% (including new stores) Internet sales -8.8%. Waitrose -4.6%.
These figures are not very good.
Cheers Morris.
29
By the time the ONS has collated the figures it will be a a gain of +1%
31, I wonder if November sales figures may be misleading due to the enormous sales that are on. Coupled with Christmas (obviously very busy) next month, might it see decent sales figures until 2009, and then the numbers dropping off a clif?
19. No.
Gibraltar is a dependency of the UK and their foreign and defence policy are still in the hands of the British government.
As Jack Straw made abundantly clear when he tried to sell them out to Spain 6 years ago..
That said, I’m sure Peter Caruna will have his own view and make sure that the UK government knows the views of Gibraltarians.
32. I think the full scale of the ugliness will not be visible until Jan/Feb 09.
Xmas will distort the figures - one last hoorah on the plastic.
31. Nu Labour Statistics. Listening to Peston - how that voice grates - talking about the Downturn, (the word recession ia barred by the BBC), you’d think everything is going to Labours master plan. Fah!
John Mc Fall was on Today this morning talking about forcing banks to lend. Another grating voice on our airwaves. Evan Davis pointed out that the government would have to be responsible for some of the losses if the loans were not repaid and that part of the previous problem was irresponsible lending which was now being reigned in. The facts that banks don’t out their capital base also seemed lost on McFail.
29. Can we stop with the negativity - weekly numbers are going to be very volatile even for a large store like John Lewis. If the monthlies are bad, then we can panic.
32. Morris Dancer. Why should Christmas be better year-on-year, the only comparison worth making? Unless you think everyone will splurge at Christmas to a greater extent than in previous years - borrowing more from future consumption - which I admit is possible, but not necessarily likely.
Mike: I have tried to post twice but it just disappears - are they held up in moderation?
39. Same problem….
On thread - suggestion to bloggers: stay out of the pernicious lobby system unless you want to become part of the same lazy, corrupt shambles that the mainstream political press now is.
The fact that the invitation is being floated strongly suggests a desire by government to turn the blogosphere into the same sort of emasculated, spoon-fed creature of the government press machine that most journalists are.
O/T - Labour panicking over the banking sector, with hysterical comments about full nationalisation by McFall and a bizarre proposal by Darling reminiscent of mediaeval us*ry laws…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3492962/Alistair-Darling-may-force-banks-to-cut-interest-rates-to-small-businesses.html
How to boost market confidence…not…or just another manifestation of an extreme core vote strategy?
37, sorry, should’ve made clear I was going on a monthly not yearly comparison.
As ever, you’re probably right about the yearly comparison mattering and monthly not, yet the recent media reporting has focused on the 0.1% monthly fall in October, not an annual comparison.
28. Weathercock
PoliticsHome already has a lobby pass. It’s the only new media outlet which has been given one so far. I would argue it is not actually a blog as such but an aggregator - of both blogs and MSM content.
O/T
Is there a spread-betting market on how many billions Slavica Ecclestone will get?
I hear Bernie isn’t going to give an inch! And Tony Blair has denied nobbling the Law Lords to create drastic amendments to interpretation the Family Law Act.
On thread - suggestion to bloggers: stay out of the pernicious lobby system unless you want to become part of the same lazy, corrupt shambles that the mainstream political press now is.
The fact that the invitation is being floated strongly suggests a desire by government to turn the blogosphere into the same sort of emasculated, spoon-fed creature of the government press machine that most journalists are.
Some bloke called David David on Desert Island Discs - apparently used to be a member of Conservative shadow cabinet but something about having to stand in a by-election.
Anyone remember what it was all about?
looks like we’re seeing the next phase of the credit crunch in the states. mass bankruptcies and layoffs . Amazing , Citigroup shares fell 26% yesterday. the company was valued at nearly $300bn last year, now its $25bn. The banking crash has spread to every industry. Even biotech firms are filing for bankruptcy, which is rare. Add to that the car industry - and surely at least one of the big 3 will fail - and you get a bleak picture in 2009. We will sadly follow. Makes a splurge on the credit cards this Christmas seem very , very unwise move to me, even at “20% off Chinese tat” . I fail to see how Brown will benefit from the economic doomsday scenario now which is now unfolding, given his abject failure to reign in the bubble, earlier on, when it was clear to everyone what was happening.
44, never heard of him.
43, I think the nature of blogs (this one at least) would prevent that. The article here are usually very good, but when one seems out of place (Jowell for Labour leader, for example) people aren’t shy in voicing their disagreement.
George Osborne’s proposals on bank lending, they look very, ‘left wing’
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/419d9608-b741-11dd-8e01-0000779fd18c.html
O/T - Labour panicking over the banking sector, with hysterical comments about full nationalisation by McFall and an outlandish proposal by Darling reminiscent of the us*ry laws of the middle ages -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3492962/Alistair-Darling-may-force-banks-to-cut-interest-rates-to-small-businesses.html
The ONS figures are Seasonally Adjusted - they can quite safely be ignored.
O/T - Labour panicking over the banking sector, with hysterical comments about nationalisation by McFall and an outlandish proposal by Darling reminiscent of the us*ry laws of the middle ages.
22.Harry, that really was side tickler, am still giggling over it.
Notice that Littlejohn has picked up on what he calls “Brown wallows in misery for electoral advantage”. I think that impression from Brown and the PLP is an Achilles heel.
Can I just check back to QT last night. Did I hear right, but did Jim Murphy say there would be no tax hikes under Labour because their policy of keeping the work force employed would keep tax revenues up in the longer term?
On topic, I think its only a matter of time before the more influential blogs(ones listed by Paul Linford) are welcomed into the Lobby.
Good end to the FT article: “The shadow chancellor, whose judgment has been questioned over his visit to a Russian oligarch’s yacht and his handling of the financial crisis,……”
58. And here’s the link…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3492962/Alistair-Darling-may-force-banks-to-cut-interest-rates-to-small-businesses.html
I used to go to (foreign press) lobby briefings under Major and I’ve been to many a Labour-era press conference, and you’re really not missing anything. The likes of Rentoul and Brogan get their scoops from one-to-one chats and lunches, which come from a combination of their developing of sources and the bullying power of their publications.
Which brings me to a second point. The blogs aren’t media in the same way as newspapers, broadcasting and even the specialist trade press. They rarely get scoops and they’re 99% pick-ups and interpretation from and links to the traditional media. They also don’t charge for access. I know you non-hacks think political journalism is as easy as falling off a log and it is if you’re not very good and don’t care if run potentially libellous rumours. Real investigation, fact-checking and original analysis are something else entirely and are to be found only - though sadly rarely - in the traditional media.
it does seem they are panicking again. they obviously can’t control the appalling news coming out of the states and the markets view on their policies. They are impotent. They know we have the same problems and in some ways are even worse placed than them. That’s why the hysterics this morning from McFall and Darling.
47. Cheap political posturing. Costs nothing to the party doing the posturing, horrible in practice, puts the government in a difficult position.
The government can either
1) Lend to businesses that were always going to get funding (crowding out private banks)
2) Lend to businesses that were not going to get funding (for the reason that they were going bust - and likely still will.)
Banks have lots of information about the business, by definition anyone not getting money from their bank is a lemon (US term for bad product).
The thin line between 1) and 2) is why this idea isnt practical. But, I am sure George and Dave will milk it.
24.”There is very significant opposition to getting too close to the Tories even though there is no doubt that there is a fairly well defined and equally significant element of the UU that is pretty much Tory in all but name.”
Yokel, I am really surprised that they have agree to this, I thought they really wanted to keep their distance and Independence?
36
Evan Davis disputed some of his assertions, eh?
McFall got a clear run on BBC R5. Got on, spoke his piece, with accompanying ‘Ooh’s and ‘Aah’s from the studio, then disappeared.
Two things to remember for all those thinking about yoy same stores numbers.
(1) They are nominal, not real. With inflation at 4.5% (yes it is), a 0.1% decline year-over-year is a 4.6% decline in real terms.
(2) Total retail space is declining as shops shut. Therefore overall spending is down more than numbers suggest.
That said, Ken’s point is a good one. Just as the government tends to cherry pick good numbers, many of the commentators on this site tend to cherry pick bad ones.
26.”The plant’s 5,000 employees will be laid off for the duration of the closure without pay.”
Can they get away with that?
54, the UUP will remain a separate political entity, so they will be independent. Too young to remember, but maybe it’s similar to the SDP/Liberal Alliance.
45. If one of the big three goes, all three go. The competitiveness gain is to great, the knock-on impact on suppliers too great. Ugly.
50
They won’t be letting any of Guido’s commenters in.
59 is this correct. it is obviously not a free market then is it, its a co-dependent oligopoly. it needs to be taken down and fast. no wonder the states is in a mess with arrangements like this.
Or…. is it just spin by the CEO’s , to save their own skin….. e.g we’ve had loads of airline bankruptcies in the past but planes keep flying, innovations come forward, and that’s an industry with loads of subsidies.
Where do we draw the line with this. Is every failing business going to be bailed out?
The really interesting headline in the FT today is this one - ‘runaway borrowing to trigger tax rises’
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/710de0c0-b753-11dd-8e01-0000779fd18c.html
It now seems that the 2009/2010 deficit is being pencilled in at £120bn…a very high number. And it’s far from clear that this contains any significant element of ’stimulus’.
And even the Labour-leaning FT admits this ‘would reinforce claims by George Osborne, shadow chancellor, in a Financial Times interview on Friday that Mr Darling is about to unleash a “tax bombshell” primed to detonate after the next general election.’
#36 John Mc Fall threat about nationalising the banks is hollow. The action of the govt is to keep the liabilies of these banks off of net debt, hence the arms length arrangements.
Darling is ‘exasparated’ apparently. Poor little diddums. Get on with your job mate and stop whining.
49
Ahem! can’t see much difference between Darling and Osborne on this, see 47. If anything Osborne wants even more coercion and intervention.
You’ll of course support Osborne, you always do.
The banks have now assumed the position that the unions did back in the 70’s. The party that promises to kick the banks the hardest, gets maximum brownie, (no pun intended) points.
73. 74. Yes - it’s just pathetic posturing. Yet apparently Labour think this kind of behaviour shows how they are the party to be trusted to make the difficult decisions to get us through the recession. Laughable.
or as the FT is trailing for tomorrow
“Can the Tories survive the Brown Bounce?”
what’s he exasperated about? What a mess of the economy they’ve made?
60.
62
There’s also this from the FT, from well known, socialist Sam Brittan.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/322c88c0-b70d-11dd-8e01-0000779fd18c.html
How is brother Leon these days? You remember Leon, sent to Europe by Mrs T, ‘to kick ‘em into line’ now Europhile number one.
41. Thanks for the info Paul. agree with you on PH.
Ken @ 59:
Well, I suspect the best thing for the big 3 would be for all to go into Chapter 11. Court ordered slashing of post retirement benefits, retirement ages and capacity. Perhaps a Chrysler merger with one of the other two. Finally, a massive debt-for-equity swap, leaving the remaining companies with modest levels of debt.
American car industry comes out the other side with a much reduced cost base, sensible capacity.
The knock-on for the supply chain is going to happen anyway. Delphi has already gone into Chapter 11.
73 i thought Chapter 11 wasnt an option for them because of the way they are set up?
Well gotogo. Be back for Wall st opening.
They certainly won’t be letting Guido in if he goes in uniform!
72. Yes to all of that. Still not convinced that even a big two is sustainable in the medium term - they make rubbish cars, but the cost per car of the idiotic pensions/healthcare costs they agreed to is just too great.
Going to be some very angry pensioners though. I hear the AARP is fearsome. If I was Obama, I’d want this done soon before I came to office, while I pretend to support the UAW.
What happens to Ford, and Vauxhall/Opel in Europe if the US car companies go tits up?
33. Casino Royale
From that wiki article:
- “A rejection of the Treaty on Åland would not prevent it in the rest of Finland and the Union.”
- “Gibraltar Parliament ratification is not necessary for the Treaty to enter into force, but changes in the legislation are needed for its provisions to apply on the territory of Gibraltar.”
So, I could have had answers to my own questions if I had just read the article I linked to
surely theyd be broken up and sold off separately? i imagine with a greatly reduced capacity and workforce - the demand for product is just not there.
73. That’s spin. Chapter 11 is fine for them - will mean that car buyers will be less willing to buy, but there would be no more problems than for any other ginormous business with lots of suppliers.
77. Ford Europe isn’t a separate entity but it must be, going by the quality of its product and its sales figures, in far better shape than Ford in America. It will probably be sold off.
77/79. They would remain part of the main business I’d guess - the legal side of whether they enter bankruptcy protection depends on how everything is set up. They’d be worth more as part of the whole - essentially car manufacturing requires global scale for model and component design. As separate entities, they would be worth even less than as part of the whole. If they dont fit in the restructuring plan, a closure is as likely as a sale.
72 Agreed, it seems pointless to try to prop up car manufacturers, they could fall further and faster than most in a downturn - a new car is the easiest thing in the world to forgo, you just keep the old one a bit longer or buy secondhand. Plus it’s a substantial expenditure, if you’re worried about your job, it makes more sense to make big savings rather than small ones. If you’re feeling the pinch on food & fuel costs and maybe the mortgage, then not having to pay that monthly car loan would be nice. Propping them up would surely be pointless.
One thing I have always wondered about is - why don’t manufacturing companies hedge, by diversifying? Anyone investor who only had shares in car manufacturers, or property developers, would be rightly derided. So why aren’t conglomerates the norm, to spread the risk? I suppose the answer is that if you pick the right industry to be in, and do it well, you make big bucks in the good times by being a specialist.
But maybe Barrett should be concentrating on building houses for itself to let to tenants? And then sell them when prices start rising.
Gore Vidal said some years ago, (during the Soviet era) ‘Its amazing the the USA and the Soviet Union, the worlds most powerful nations, and neither of them produces cars anyone else wants to buy’
re 15 you’ll never read a report that the spokesman ‘looked sweaty and nervous as he explained the Government’s position’
I think you mean “spun the Government’s position”. Surely, Nick you don’t think we’re naive enough to think that No10 holds these briefings to put out the whole truth and nothing bu the truth?
The big 3 are better at lobbying (more $) than other industries - they will probably get some sort of bail out but it wont be enough.
…a massive debt-for-equity swap…
Which I think impacts on Banks’ Tier 1 Capital - this could be an emerging theme.
Reposessions up 12%
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7741172.stm
The number of properties repossessed by mortgage lenders rose by 12% to 11,300 in the third quarter of the year, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said.
The number of borrowers in arrears also went up compared with the previous quarter, by 8% to 168,000.
83. Because the investor only wants to buy exposure to car manufacturing and he can hedge his portfolio by diversifying. The car company concentrates just on that business alone. Diversification helps the management by lowering their risk, but the odds are high that each new business they enter, they do not have the right skills to manage it correctly - so Ford entering the housing business would diversify the managers risk, but be likely to be value destroying as an investor can buy a housing company run by real housing execs.
That said, Toyota produces houses.
Conglomerates ended up being broken up because the synergies in managing the businesses were not there. The one glaring exception that proves this rule is General Electric in the US.
81 But who would want to buy a car manufacturer right now? They’d need their head examining.
re 56 I was wondering about this in the middle of the night (strange I know!).
The retail sales figures are they adjusted for inflation? Or is it just the amount in pounds? If the latter then the recent fall of 0.1% is actually a fall of 4.6% factoring in the CPI as well?
42 surely it’ll be Bernie suing Slavica for his share of her astronomical wealth - IIRC she is a non dom and most of the Ecclestone wealth is in her name for tax reasons? Would be amusing if Bernie got less than half.
76: well, the retirees cannot possibly expect to get the benefits they thought they would. It is impossible for GM, Ford and Chrysler to pay them.
The question is, do we recognise this now? Or is more government money poured in, allowing the problem to worsen?
Medicare will pick up most retirees medical costs. It won’t be as nice as the expensive Ford provided care. But it will be OK. Obama, as you mentioned, needs to step up and stare down the UAW.
83. ” why don’t manufacturing companies hedge, by diversifying?”
Because standard economic and business models penalise innovation. If your plan says you will make $100 dollars selling cars, but <$100 making cars and paperclips then the board will not approve the plan.
There is a book called The Innovators Dilemma that describes numerous companies in various industries that dies because their business models drove them to pursue diminishing returns in their core market rather than pursue alternative strategies.
not just a huge jump in reposessions but big jump in those in arrears as well.
History shows that interest rates have little bearing and are almost never mentioned as a factor in repossesion cases. Its nearly always unemployment.
87 - The banks shouldn’t be *too* exposed to auto industry debt paper - it’s been hovering around ‘junk’ for ages. But I think more generally it’s a very good point.
91: Retail sales numbers are nominal, not real. However, the fall in sales report was month-on-month not year-on-year. (I.e., it was a comparison with September.) This makes the figures completely pointless and very ignorable.
The old media don’t want to let the new media in on their parade - and the old media have all the connections in place to make sure that this never happens. Why on earth would they want to open up their ‘monopoly’ on news reporting any more than they have to?
http://www.lettersfromatory.com
87: auto company debt is mostly bonds. There are 53 active bond issuances for Ford on Bloomberg.
The March 2020 Ford bonds look interesting for anyone wanting a punt. They trade at 18 cents in the dollar. They pay a 53.6% yield.
60 bono publico They won’t be letting any of Guido’s commenters in.
Dead right. But I was amused by this one, from ‘Dennis’:
“OT, but what I want to know is this. Why is the price of Woolworth’s being quoted as £1.00?
It should be 99p.”
108. Indeed - but it’s easy to see why government might want to bring bloggers into its grasp. We’ve seen the power it has to shift the media narrative by spoon-feeding stories in recent months. How much better if the independent voices out there can be brought ‘on message’ as well.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/11/21/do2101.xml
This nonsense from the Libdems about ‘cutting corporate tax loopholes’ as a way for paying for tax cuts to the low paid really is idiotic.
HMRC and the Treasury have created the most complex corporate tax regime in the world in a desperate attempt to stop corporate tax efficient planning and they have consultations out on various other ways.
Of course we get around them all or come up with alternatives but its becoming a drag and in fact they have tried so hard that many corporates have started considering leaving the UK completely taking their jobs, corporation tax and national insurance contributions etc. with them. WPP the latest to leave on Wedensday following UBM and Shire and many more on the ‘runway’ as we say.
Low Tax low cost economies are the best way to generate efficient tax revenues. I am not surprsied the LibDems arent getting a look in if this sort of drivel is the best their leader can come up with.
100
(not 6d?)
101/Runnymede at 10am, presumably because of posts waiting in moderation your numbering seems out of roder (to me at least).
I’m not sure spoonfeeding bloggers will work. People who read blogs (except for some Labour ones) are unlikely to stick with a blog that becomes a government propaganda tool. Switching sites is just the work of a single click. And a small amount of typing, probably followed by a second click.
104, er, out of order*. Much like my spelling :p
On thread - I think Bloggers would lose more than they gain from becoming bound by the Rules of the Lobby. The good blogs get to know what has been discussed and can spill the beans which the Lobby cannot, they do not become as affected by Lobby Groupthink and look at what is revealed with a more sceptical eye.
This lloks to me a dangerous proposal to ensnare bloggers in the comfortable conspiracy of Government and commentators - scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours.
I think Antifrank up at 6 has it spot on. The USP of many the great blogs (this one included) is it’s distance from the establishment. Guido reflects on this in his blog this morning. Also I’m not sure we’d get blog posts entitled from members of the lobby:
“Prime Mentalist Forgets He’s On Holiday”
Blogs are great because they are unruly and unpredictable and they have also played a part in highlighting the faults of the Lobby to a far greater extent than that ever happened before.
107, and, because of the real time nature of ye olde internette, they can be far more responsive and in touch (albeit with a certain part of the electorate) than newspaper types.
PB is a splendid place partly because of articles but also because the threads can be just as illuminating. The blurred boundary between readership and contributor is a fantastic asset.
83. this goes in and out of fashion every twenty years or so - massive conglomeration followed by massive rationalisation.
some management consultants make a living peddling the two extremes alternately.
107. C: The USP of many the great blogs (this one included) is it’s distance from the establishment.
To an extent.
Personally, I think the USP of PB is the discussions, with a reasonable spread of opinions across the political spectrum - and the lead articles, crucially written by more than one person.
PC could appoint a Lobby Correspondent (though who would fund it, I know not!
)
“The blurred boundary between readership and contributor is a fantastic asset.”
That’s no way to talk about our late night posters!
114. Yes - I had problems posting a link, for some reason.
Re. your point, I hope you are right. But I’m far from certain you are.
108 Yes and illiterates like me can right (sic) things and have their opinions read by people who Morris Dance!
107. agreed. + we already have some lobby blogs, so it is not as though there is a hole that needs filling. all the proposal would do is attempt to lure some “troublesome” characters over to the dark side.
runnymede - you were trying to post a comment on a future post, no wonder the blogmeister didn’t like it.
110 “Personally, I think the USP of PB is the discussions, with a reasonable spread of opinions across the political spectrum - and the lead articles, crucially written by more than one person.”
Of course - I completely agree.
But sometimes Mike, Morus etc can be a bit more mischievous than they might be if they were in the lobby - precisely because they want to help stimulate discussion and weed out public sentiment to better understand the trends in the politics “market”.
I prefer my political blogs to be outsiders!
A misguided article followed by illuminating comments, re. Sterling’s prospects:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/nov/21/sterling-currency-crisis-pound-osborne
Portillo on This Week last night was lucid as ever. They had Ken Livingston on and it was good banter. Ken doesn’t think Brown will go early. Portillo thinks he will, because he’s showed an impetuous, decisive streak since the start of the economic crises.
107 C, 114 ed - However, PB.com might be a special case. Mike doesn’t tend to write the sort of ’scoop’ or opinion pieces that Guido or Iain Dale write; instead, he concentrates on interpreting polls or assessing the ‘media narrative’ from a betting point of view. Getting a feel for how the Lobby are being fed, and perhaps swallowing, a narrative could be a good input to that. As Mike says in his intro: “I always come away with ideas and insights which are reflected here.”
127. Mike may well be inspired by his current relationship with the Westminster circus, but there is zero evidence that any of the lobby journalists are anything other than thoroughly uninspired.
26. They are in fact being paid during the 2 month lay off.
[57] - More about this in the Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/nov/21/automotive-recession
“The plant’s 4,800 employees will be laid off for the duration of the closure, although they will still receive basic pay, the company said. Some will be employed in training and on maintenance.
…
Local union officials believe Honda considered plans to make 1,300 people redundant but opted to close the plant for two months to avert job losses.”
I thought it sounded strange, because Honda would have faced a large one-off bill in redundancy payments if they had sacked people. I assume that the basic pay at Honda is relatively small, and a large proportion is made up of overtime, or output-related bonuses.
101 Exactly, it’s all about control. Read the collected works of Hazel Blears and others to see what HMG’s plans are for political reporting on the internet. It’s seen as a threat, and the more people they can get ‘on side’ and in the tent, the better for them it will be be.
122 These days Dolly Dale and Guido are little more than CCHQ organs (one a bigger organ than the other). Mere outriders that do their masters dirty work.
Mike is his own man.
126 was to 110
126. Agreed. The lobby system should be abolished.
127 Mrs Dale maybe. I’m not so sure about Guido - are you stirring things up with disinformation Jonathan? Divide and rule?
127 - I don’t think that’s fair about Guido, who is more independent-minded than you suggest. I do think that’s fair about Iain Dale (though thinly disguised homophobia is always unattractive).
On Sky News - electrical giant Sony to put prices up by a third in the New Year because of the falling pound.
A ploy to increase pre-Christmas sales or a real reflection of the lowered value of the pound? Discuss!!!
Iain Dale’s blog has 2 comments today, 110 yesterday 174 on Wednesday and 92 on Tuesday.
Cant be bothered to count comments here but 127 today already.
127 Jonathan - Mere outriders that do their masters dirty work
That is absurd. OK, Dale (mostly) follows the Conservative line, but that’s no more surprising, given his background, than the fact that you mostly follow the Labour line in the comments you post here. But Guido? Come off it! If there’s one person in the blogosphere who is absolutely his own man, for better or worse, it’s Guido (and Mike, of course!)
the government wants to control the message. They hate blogs and comment sections because they neuter their spin lines and are freely accessible and interactive, unlike the dead tree press that parrott the lines. little wonder they are annoyed!
133 And only pb.com has Roger!
To put this in perspective, Mike Settle is the Lobby Journalist for the Herald (a Scottish title for those unfamiliar) which has a daily circulation of 60,000 or so readers.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/nov/07/abcs-pressandpublishing5
The big six (excluding the MSM Spectator Coffee House, which I rate very highly) of Guido, PB.com, Iain Dale, ConHome, Dizzy, and Liberal Conspiracy all have circulation as high or much higher (Guido gets up to 150k I think). In terms of influence, I’d be interested to see how many MPs/Lords read the Herald but not one of these six blogs compared to vice versa.
The question of whether the big six (to which you should reasonably add Devil’s Kitchen or Paul Linford as well) *deserve* passes is (IMHO) a moot point. Of course they do, but that’s not the point.
The question is whether they would accept, and whether they would still be as good if they were absorbed into the ‘client media’.
Guido relishes not being a member, and though I don’t think he’d get sucked in, I don’t think it would add much. He gets his info anyway, so why would he want to play nice as a lobby journalist?
Iain Dale probably could get a pass if he wanted one, esp as Total Politics Editor, but again knows enough people from working there to get invited to what he wants to.
ConHome would probably prefer a permanent office in CCHQ, and as an activist site, it would be a bit of a change for openly partisan media to be included in the Lobby, but if they wanted it I can’t see why they should be refused. Same goes for Liberal Conspiracy.
Dizzy has a full-time IT job, and gets so much info (contradictory accounts etc) from the web that I don’t know he *needs* a lobby pass to keep uncovering expenses, costs and quirks in answers to write as well as he does.
PB.com isn’t an attack site with disdain for politicians in general, or disagreements with one party in particular. From our perspective, all information is beneficial for making more informed choices. To be a little closer to rumours of reshuffles, elections being called, MPs resigning would always be useful, but there might be a concern that because of the market impact, that it could be targeted by those who want to leak something misleading - to confer upon a false rumour the authority of having been followed by the markets.
I think it’s time the Lobby opened up to the blogosphere, if only as thanks for providing so much of its (unattributed) material. I don’t know how useful it would be, but I think it’s time to find out.
i hardly think Guido is the work of CCHQ. The comments are not exactly traditional blue rinse Tory are they? I think the government is scared of Blogs such as Guido because of the level of pure unvarnished anger that the posters have against them.
130,131,134 You only think that because Dale and Guido broadly agree with you. Dale is a uncritical cheerleader. The dolly tag is valid. He’s just got a better veneer. I wonder where he gets his scoops from.
I agree Guido’s main love is Guido. But he has a political objective so when the chips are down, he does his masters bidding. So no homophobia intended, I just think Guido is a self-important tool.
Mike is far, far above both of these (and the rest), as the mixed community he has created only serves to underline.
On topic, I agree with what (interestingly) seems to be the consensus here: We don’t need selected bloggers getting press-like access. If there’s a load of stuff that the press is getting and non-press people can’t, that’s what’s broken and needs to be fixed. Bloggers shouldn’t be collaborating in helping politicians hide things from the public with invitation-only lobby briefings. If politicians have got something to say to the nation, they should make it available over the net in real time and stream it to our faces.
If Mike does get this kind of access, I think the people who comment on his blog should form a picket line and blockade the briefings. I won’t be able to make it to Westminster myself, but I’ll be happy to post “SCAB” in capital letters on his blog every time he attends.
This “Dolly” Dale line from Johnathan - why the homophobia ?
Darling has extended his remit.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7741397.stm
Mr Darling is said to be considering a cap on interest rates on small business loans as part of a package of measures aimed at kick starting the economy.
140 It’s time to break up the Lobby. Maybe the lazy beggars can do some real reporting rather than regurgitate a press release they’ve been given over a long lunch with a Minister or PR robot.
Jeff Randall today - can’t disagree with anything.
Debt is at the root of our crisis. We did not arrive at this bad place because consumers and government were saving too much and spending too little. We will not escape it by carrying on as we did before. There will be no foundation for a lasting recovery until Britain rediscovers the virtue of living within its means.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeffrandall/3492611/When-money-is-tight-people-spend-less.-Are-you-listening-Mr-Darling.html
Too much paranoia in some of the comments above - they overlook the point that the idea (which as noted above I don’t think is really a runner) comes not from the government or politicians but from some of the blogosphere itself, saying “let us in!” In reality there’s nothing very exciting to be let into.
Darling ‘to force banks to lend’
oh dear.
139 Jonathan, you seem very confused, or just in a bad mood today perhaps? You presumably don’t really believe that, just because two people express broadly the same view, that one of them is the master and the other is “doing his master’s bidding”.
Dale is exactly in the same position as Hopi Sen. I wouldn’t claim that Hopi is doing the bidding of Labour HQ, just because he expresses broadly pro-Labour views. Equally, Dale is not doing the bidding of Conservative HQ. He just happens to be a Conservative.
And Guido is DEFINITELY not doing anyone’s bidding.
142 Darling doesn’t get it does he? He’s got to stop putting off the inevitable - learn from King Canute. It’s unfortunate but the Economy does need a correction - the sooner the better for all of us.
147 An example of Guido sycophancy to St Dave.
http://www.order-order.com/2008/11/camerons-press-conference-live.html
Are you seriously saying that Dale and Guido have no working relation with CCHQ. Are you crazy or just hugely naive?
124&125.Thanks.
145 Did the little red pager start vibrating, as the angry messages came through from The Bunker?
Can I suggest that Darling stands up on Monday for the Autumn Budget (can we stop calling it pre budget statement) and declares a Jubilee - with all debts cancelled -then we could all just start again!
I might just have to declare an interest here!
[139] - This is, of course, because of the betting. Most other bloggers have a political purpose for blogging about politics. They have their own opinions that they wish to propagate.
That’s fine, but it creates a different sort of blog to pb, because Mike is essentially trying to filter out his political prejudices, and make an objective opinion about reality, in order to profit by recognising a mismatch between reality and the betting odds.
141. To be fair to Jonathan I don’t think he is homophobic and to accuse him as such is unfair. I think he is using that as a comparison to Dolly Draper and effectively saying that Dale and Draper are the same but work for different sides.
“forcing” banks to lend with the implication this will be uncompetitive or unprofitable for them, is just going to prolong the agony and make the final collapse worse.
149. Guido is certainly on the right, but he is not afraid to put the boot in to CCHQ and Cameron if necessary. It all seems quite a pointless conversation as I doubt he will be offered a pass in the first place, however, I imagine he will froth a bit somehow about the matter in some way.
Everyone knows that come the new year , the banks are going to start pulling the plug on hundreds of unprofitable, loss making business and get out what they can, to cut their eventual losses. this is just what happens in recessions. Darling trying to force a continuation of crazy lending to bust businesses is ridiculous. but he’s setting things up to blame them again when things go wrong. Never taking any responsibility himself.
155 It’s all about saving Labour’s own political skin, rather than what’s best for the UK. The shameful actions of a desperate man. Does he have no sense of decency and honour, or shred of sense remaining?
142. It’s risible. If you cap rates, loan supply will collapse. What happens then? Perhaps Darling starts centrally determining who gets a loan and who doesn’t, making each credit decision concerning tens of thousands of small businesses himself?
The government is getting itself into very deep water now. Having foolishly presented the bank rescue as a way of preserving bubble levels of lending and ‘kickstarting’ the economy, it is panicking as the reality of what a recession means for credit losses and bank behaviour sinks in.
Hence the blizzard of increasingly unhinged and unrealistic threats and declarations. But the more this absurd posturing diverges from the reality on the ground, the more ridiculous the government will look.
159 maybe he’ll use information at his disposal to make sure only Labour voting businessmen get loans, if he’s going to micromanage in this way….
I have to agree with Richard at 147. Dale is like Hopi Sen. Guido is his own man. He may agree with CCHQ on some issues, and even get information from them, but he is hardly doing their bidding.
I think this is a point the left does not understand - independence, and why i believe fwiw that it would daft of any successful blogger to move into the lobby.
I made the point earlier in the week - guido will pull anyone apart if he thinks they are being hypocritical. There is no dissenting voice taking on labour.
149 Jonathan - Actually, I very much doubt that Guido has a close relationship with CCHQ, although he may be given tip-offs occasionally. (I believe that, at one point, he was complaining that they had cut him off from their press release list.) Dale, obviously given his background, is close to the Conservative Party establishment, just as Hopi is close to the Labour Party.
So what? That’s not the same as “doing his master’s bidding”, is it? Both Dale and Hopi, and certainly Guido, will sometimes be very critical of those that you think are their masters. Hopi and Dale are independent commentators, one a Labour supporter, the other a Conservative. Guido is a separate case altogether - sui generis.
146
The banks are doing what their customers would do; what the recipients of the refund in the US did: they are holding on to the money.
Darling is restricted to giving ‘tax handouts’ (in whatever form they take) to those who he know will spend.
I don’t think he can introduce a new tax band, so this is likely to mean some new tax credit - some more money will be thrown into the engine, to be absorbed by the machine, to produce a result that in no way will be adequate
And this is madness.
Jonathan - have you tried snowflake’s blog (on RHS) ? Would be right up your street in la-la land. Also she’s str@ight.
155. For the first time since Blair was elected in 1997 I am scared shi**ess of a Labour government and the damage they will inflict on the country. These guys now seem to be the real deal in terms of disastrous leftist ecoonomics. They really do seem to be intent on scorched earth and smashing the piggy bank in a final desperate attempt to cling onto power.
Of course it wont gain seat winning traction oustide teh heartlands but what does Brown care. Its clear he isnt going to die wondering.
However, its desperate for the country’s sake as the catastrophic mess they will leave behind in trying to rage ineffectually against the storm of recession looks like it will be much worse than 1979.
It is important that Cameron holds his nerve and continues to offer (even though belatedly) a clear alternative and more realistic and prudent narrative.
158. Decency? Honour? These are politicians that you’re talking about.
Twas ever thus: “For a handful of silver he sold us. Just for a ribbon to stick in his coat.”
Darling and McFall are admitting by these panicky threats that what they’ve done so far hasnt worked and that bank losses are bound to be much larger than they believed when they agreed the bailout.
How long did the honeymoon last? barely a month. Credit needs to contract in a recession. Banks have lent stupidly, but people and businessss have benefitted from these loans, which , had it not been for the now defunct funding model, would never have been made. Now the party is over and its time for businesses to stand or not. There’s no argument for extending credit to failing businesses.
The guarantees have been given by the taxpayers so the banks themselves will not fail, as such. However credit will necessarily have to contract or banks will never make a profit ever again, and the taxpayer won’t see any of their money back!
in anyone is interested…French Socialist Party leadership (premier secrétaire) election…
Segolene Royal at around 42.51%, Martine Aubry at around 34.7% and Benoît Hamon at around 22.79% (apparently they still have to add votes from Guadalupe).
Hamon eliminated and Royal and Aubry go to the final round now.
152 Can I suggest that Darling stands up on Monday, says “it has proved an impossible task, trying to reconcile Gordon Brown’s delusions and the reality of the UK economy. I can’t do it - so I hereby resign. Good luck Gord - and good luck Britain. Damn, from the numbers I’ve been seeing from Treasury staff, you’re going to need it….”
142 159
As he said in his island interview (and I aparphrase) Darling has looked into the New Year and sees the abyss opening up.
Pissing in the wind.
Car production down 20% +
Financial services down 20% plus.
Manufacturing outpu down 2 to 5% plus.
Fall in next year’s GDP from those along approx 3-4%..
3 to 4% makes next year the worst recession for a long time.
(if my numbers are anywhere near realistic).
Deleveraging cannot be stopped. Period.
And pissing money away on trees that are dying is called wasting money.
Why are the Government keeping open 200 Job Centres scheduled for closure?
Well it’s not for the cost savings they have already claimed!
Anyone who thinks unemployment next year is going to end up less than 2.75million is called Kaletsky..(or just as dumb).
UK’s EU bill is 56Billion.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1956034.ece
Can anyone tell me what Britain’s deficit is?
Sorry for asking what is probably a dumb question here, but I watched PMQ’s on Wednesday and Cameron, at least one other Conservative and Clegg were all hammering away at Brown about how difficult it was for small businesses to get loans and how, the interst rates were not being passed on to small businesses by the banks.
Now Labour are saying they are going try and force banks to lend more to small businesses and cap the interest rates they charge them and it is being greeted with derision on here.
Can someone tell me exactly what Cameron and Co WANT Brown and Darling to do so that small businesses are able to get the loans they need at a fair market rate.
171. Perhaps the problem is not one of loan availability but that of loan appliactions of suitable quality.. What can you offer as collateral Mr Businessman ?
Well I have a house plunging in value by 20% and a commercial property plunging in value by 40%…
Er.. right - feck off then..
171 The Opposition oppose. It’s up to Brown and Co to come up with the ideas and sort things out. If thats a problem for them, then maybe it’s time for someone else to take over?
171. It’s a trap. Petty politicking. I assume that everyone knows nothing can be done, but saying that is politically iffy. Just as moronic Labour posters run around saying “schools will close”, Dave & Co are cynically demanding the government do something about business lending. As it becomes clear nothing can be done - but having thrown £37 billion in, Brown looks like the toad he is.
It’s very bad for Brown because the lefties in his own party are expecting lots of luvverly statist help and Cameron and Clegg are happy to add an extra couple of logs to the fire.
171 I suspect Cameron and the Conservatives are thinking politically and not economically. Why?:
1. The government implied the bank bailout would improve liquidity and get banks lending again.
2. Most, if not all Conservative MP’s are probably getting letters from constituents/local business’s complaining about loans being foreclosed, penal interest rates etc.
3. It gives the impression the conservatives are on the side of small businesses etc
4. If it has an effect at the margin and saves 1 or 2 viable companies that might have suffered unduly then that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
I personally feel a little uncomfortable with it - I actually worked for a company that was hugely financially irresponsible and saw the writing on the wall. I resigned as I couldn’t influence the sole director owner to change his ways. The company has, rightly, gone under although 70 people will have lost their jobs.
Dale is a party poodle with an exceptionally boring blog, but that is hardly surprising as he is absolutely desperate to become an MP. you can’t really blame him for that.
Ahh..ok, thank you for the replies. I thought maybe I was missing something, so I thought I would be brave and show my ignorance by asking the question!
So basically, if Brown were able to turn the question around and ask, what would you suggest we do? Then Cameron would be stumped.
171. They probably don’t have any guaranteed cure either - but the government claimed that their plan would work and that’s why they were doing it. It didn’t/hasn’t. So they get a kicking.
Ideas and proposals are cheap, anyone can do that, you even get the chance to change your tune without too much of a backlash, but to actually fail with something that was presented with certainty leaves a government open to ridicule and increasing levels of disbelief and mistrust for any further bright ideas they come up with.
‘Can someone tell me exactly what Cameron and Co WANT Brown and Darling to do ‘
continue to make fools of themselves by promising ‘action’ when they are completely unable to deliver. And it seems to be working…
177. Yes but as Brown forgets every week its “PMQs” not “LOTOQs”
178. But didn’t the Conservatives support the bank bail-out?
indeed , no one has a “right” to cheap loaned money. why should a loans business be “forced” to lend. it’s patently bizarre. you need to be creditworthy. you need to put up collateral or have a good business plan, or assets. these are businesses. its fair and square.
we are addicted to loans. time to break the addiction.
177 Cameron would give a response to Brown along the lines of my entry at 173.
178. And remember what GO said at the time…the test will be if it saves the economy, not the banks. He knew it wouldn’t, the government foolishly claimed it would and are now panicking…
181
The Conservatives had no choice.
The bank bailout saved the banking system from collapse.
Anything else is just bullshit.
176 ed - I agree that Dale’s blog is pretty boring nowadays. It seemed to deteriorate when he got involved in Total Politics.
Madasafish, it grieves me to say this, but your unalloyed messages of “Doom. Doom! DOOM!!” have proved nearer the mark than any other pundit I have been reading, politician or otherwise. The stock exchange rallies of recetn weeks have merely suckered in good money chasing bad. None of the fundamentals appear to have improved.
I am the most concerned for the British economy that I have been in my adult life. This is making the mid-70’s IMF episode look tame.
180 Nice try, if Cameron doesn’t get his act together he’s going the right way about staying LotO.
176 Be careful calling Mrs (Dolly) Dale a “party poodle” Harry Flashman that famous gay rights activist will call you a homophobe too!
181. What’s that got to do with anything?
The government proposed it, the government implemented it - if it worked as intended everybody looks good. If it doesn’t then the opposition says “We agreed with the concept, with the principle, but the way you’ve gone about it… oh dear. You really should have done it this way.”
It’s called politics.
171. I believe we (the Lib Dems) are proposing that the government should use its power as majority shareholder of some banks to make them loan at reasonable levels, and if that is not possible then to temporarily do it directly, via a new bank (or Northern Rock or something) or the Post Office.
In reply to the very first post on this thread Guido has already said he doesnt want one. Having said that; as one person has said where does this end?? It does run the risk of ‘two-tier’ blogging..also blogs and MSM are not the same thing…
I appreciate that Political Blogging is not partisan but three of the ‘big five’ are tied to one specific party (in a way the MSM isn’t) which wont exactly result in political balance in the issuing of passes will it?? I think this is too problamatic at the moment and even as a political blogger I dont want to see it happen…
189. Yes, ok I understand that. Was just trying to clarify if there really were some other measures that Cameron was wanting Brown and Darling to take to get market rate loans to small businesses or if they were just playing party politcs.
I think I have my answer.
Fraser Nelson and the FT note that Darling may have to announce the future tax rises as part of the PBR on Monday ! Probably to save the pound tanking ?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3028326/jam-today-jam-tomorrow-but-never-jam-again.thtml
Now, the political consequence of this—as the FT notes—is that Darling might have to announce deferred tax rises in the PBR. If he does, then the Tory charge that what is being announced is a tax con not a tax cut will be greatly strengthened.
the price of not having a total banking system collapse - and let’s pull no punches here - this was what was on the cards - is to have a big recession and a massive contraction of credit now.
Its like rescuing a patient through intensive care . the patient didnt die, they recovered , but they will be very very ill for possibly months whilst their system repairs. Trying to force or tinker with the medicine for the cure every 2 minutes could cause a relapse - it is possible to kill a patient like this.
And calling people doommongers or exaggerators any more is hardly a valid critisim when nearly every worst case scenario has in fact come true so far, and continues to, even this week (Top 3 car makers in USA face bankruptcy, Citigroup shares crash 25% in a day).
I’ll repeat what i have said before - just because you dont want things to be true doesnt mean they aren’t . We are in an enormously bad situation. Its hard to exaggerate. Brown and Darling are God Awful Hopeless in dealing with this , are inspiring no confidence in markets , and need to be kicked out ASAP.
192. The beauty is that Brown can say “what would you do?” to which Osborne has said “direct loans by government” no doubt via something stupid like the LibDem plan (via NR). If the government did it - it would be bad - and if they dont do it, they look heartless.
187
M Matk
Thanks.
BUT
It’s just common sense.
I have read about the market crash of 1929.
I lived throough 1972-74 - but as a recent graduate in his second job did not really comprehend it.
Now it is bleeding obvious to me that any economist worth hsi salt should have foreseen it.(the credit fallout).
Which proces that most economists are : crap and worthless.
I also use Market Breadth analysis to see what the Markets internally are doing:
These basically measure the highs/lows/numbers of shres rising versus falling etc.
One of them, the MCClellan Summation Index (MCSI) has been a consistent foreteller of market bottoms (not THE lows but a low).
Every time the MCSI falls below -80 and then turns up - , the market has rallied strongly… for the past 15 years. (no earlier records).
BUT NOT THIS TIME> This time it IS different.
On 3 occasions:
26th March -87
16th July -117
29th October -144
the MCSI has turned and the market has bounced - pretty feebly for a few weeks or strongly but only for days.. and kept going down.
Which says teh old rules do not work.
In the US VIX - the Volatility Index - has been consistently at levels which normally said rally… and the market keeps falling.
It I had these numbers for 72-74 but alas.. no.
So I conclude we are seeing a “Black Swan” event.
And of course anyone who follows the banking news and deleveraging and teh incompetence of teh BOE can explain it all.
As for the US, does GWBush aim to pick incompetents? Paulson certainly is. The TARP schem is a shambles. $700billion approved to buy bad debts /dodgy loans from banks … and used on something else.
1929 to 32 with different errors is my view- if we are not very lucky.
[193] - How could the Tories claim anyone was being conned if Darling were to tell us about the tax rises in advance?
If Darling were to announce tax cuts, and then blithely say that there would be no need for tax rises after the next election because the magical hand of Broon would ensure that great quantities of silver flowed into the national coffers.. Well, that would clearly be an attempt at deception, ie a “con”.
If Darling honestly says, we will have a temporary cut in taxes to get us through this temporary sticky patch in the economy, and when the economy recovers we will have to increase tax to improve the public finances… that isn’t a con at all. It might be a bit optimistic, but I don’t see what is dishonest about it.
190 Judging by the financial condition of some businesses, the Treasury would do just as well to print the money and burn it on a big bonfire in the Bank of England car park, rather than lend it through some crazy State Loan Bank!
195 - I think the key political point here is one picked by Robert Peston:
Or to put it more bluntly, the transfer to our banks of so much of our cash wasn’t designed to kickstart lending by our banks - although it’s unsurprising that many of you think that’s what it was all about, because ministers created that impression.
The chancellor stipulated that recipients of the capital element of the bailout funds - of which £37bn has been drawn down so far - should maintain “over the next three years the availability and active marketing of competitively priced lending to homeowners and to small businesses at 2007 levels.”
It’s a hole the government have dug for themselves.
192. To be fair, Cameron, Clegg et al probably know as much or as little about what’s in the Treasury accounts as we do, so they don’t have all the relevant facts. To make dogmatic proposals in such circumstances isn’t clever. If there are the horrors in there that some suspect, any seemingly clever ploy to solve the problem could be a complete non-starter, which means they would end up looking like complete plonkers - even more than usually so.
“As for the US, does GWBush aim to pick incompetents?”
Hey, it takes one to pick ‘em…
197. I refuse to believe Darling will say on Monday “When the recession ends in 2011 we will increase income tax by 2p in the pound.”
It will be some sort of fiscal drag trick buried deep on page 325.
197. You’re right, but it would be a con in so far as they attempted to present it as a tax cut. That would be the Tory argument, and would be fair enough.
re 193 not a hope in hell that Brown will allow that to happen. This is a man, after all, who has spent the last 10 years burying away every tax rise he’s ever introduced (like the 10p scandal) in the small print of the footnote on page 74.
202,203 Whatever happens the Tories will try to spin it with the sole purpose of saving their skins.
202, 204: ‘page 325′, ‘page74′: Maybe we should set up a spread-bet on which page it’s on?
third hand rumour I heard today: snap election to be announced Monday with the PBR.
206. It’s almost as if they’re politicians…
196. Madasafish. Paulson isnt incompetent - I think he always intended to use TARP for recap - it’s why he demanded a carte blanche and tried to stampede the Congress into passing it. They should have - and then let him get on with it. It’s the political side that’s difficult in the US.
The first couple of US Treasury secretaries under Bush were incompetent - O’Neill and Snow (they were Cheney’s mates). Paulson is pretty good. My opinion of Bernanke is slipping (just as my opinion of Merv is slipping).
Still hindsight is a useful thing - I always knew that there was too much leverage, that securitisation was bad, that VAR was a disaster waiting to happen, but I never saw that it would agglomerate into the most appalling disaster of recent times.
You have called it better than I have, gunga din.
206 And they’ve had a good long tutorial from the masters of spin!
208 Test - In December?
205 - Actually, he didn’t bury 10p rate abolition in the small print. He said it explicitly in his 2007 budget speech (a fact the Lib Dems noted in response but the Tories did not).
208. Now would we a good time to do it, from Gordon’s point of view. He could just frighten the electorate into voting Labour, by waving photos of Osborne in his Bullingdon drag.
However, I don’t think Brown has got the cullions. He’s shown some boldness in recent weeks, sure, but risking all on a December election? When he’s behind in the polls? Nah, can’t see it.
206 the Tories are trying to save their skins? Eh? Remind me who has a “skin” of power to save - its Labour who have been in power since the mid 1990’s.
200. Fair point.
I wasn’t trying to be critical of Caneron for asking the questions, I genuinely wanted to know if there was something that I was missing and there WAS a way of achieving the results that that Cameron and Clegg were asking for.
If Brown gave the impression that the bank bail-out would solve the problems facing small businesses and it can do no such thing, then it is only fair for the opposition to hold him accountable for those false expectations.
187 Richard - I agree, except that I think IDD started to deteriorate when he became involved in the ill-fated Doughty Street venture. Then, of course, there were the never-ending blogging polls - Yaaaaaaaaawwwwn!
209 “Almost” Genius! It’s takes an extra special lack of integrity to oppose things before they’ve been announced. Whatever ever the govt. decide to do, the one thing we know is that the Tories are strongly against it. It would be laughable if it wasn’t so serious.
208 Wouldn’t surprise me - the “back your only hope for salvation - or sack me” election.
Game on…
197/203. I think you make good points but Labour’s spinning tops and Dollies had been trying to get away with simply leaving it as a tax cut with limited or buried emphasis on the clawback. The excellent response of Cameron and Osborne over the last week has ensured that they simply will not get away with that anymore and if they try then the Conservative can rightly point out that this is typical Brown sleight of hand.
From my blue perspective what is great is that there is finally a real debate about Brown’s approach and some real challeneges from the MSM. That is a big change from the last couple of months.
Of course most voters are economically illiterate and most Labour supporters breathtakingly so. Therefore, Brown’s, on the surface, more attractive message may get him further poll gains initially. However, when the reality bites I think it will be messy for him.
220 - I am astonished that the Conservatives haven’t likened the idea to loan sharking: get the money now, but pay through the nose later.
NB This is not a comment on which side has the economics right (I’m not knowledgeable enough to opine), just a comment on a way of communicating the Tory version to the public.
208-When are we going to have it Xmas Day???
212. There is not enough time to prep a snap election now. Maybe a January one, but a 4 week campaign up until the week before xmas?
would be most odd
213 - Indeed, this from the two speeches that followed Brown’s budget speech in 2007:
Mr. David Cameron (Witney) (Con): Well, the Chancellor has finally given us a tax cut. He normally does that before a general election, but he is in such a deep hole that he has had to do it before the leadership election. In the process, he has blown open the argument that he has been making year after year. He is conceding what we have said all along—that it is possible to increase spending and cut taxes; that yes, it is possible to share the proceeds of growth.
Sir Menzies Campbell (North-East Fife) (LD): Once again, I am struggling to match the intellectual rigour of the previous speech… if one looks carefully, one sees that the revenue to justify that reduction will be obtained from the abolition of the 10p rate. To fund the reduction, income tax will be increased for many taxpayers. One could say that we will be asking the poor to subsidise the rich.
218. Uhh.. no..it simply takes an informed glance at every other disaster that Brown and Darling have inflicted on us and make an educated guess that it will be statist, irresonsible, designed purely to get Brown re-elected, ultimately ineffectual and will end up costing the taxpayer billions..this is one situation where past performance is very much a good indicator of future performance.
I notice that all this talk of recession hinges on whether GDP is falling over 2 consecutive quarters. What is not mentioned is that the GDP per capita (each person) is already in recession. The impact of 200,000 to 400,000 more people reduces the GDP per person by 0.3% to 0.6%.
The 2 million foreign workers within a total of 4 million more people requires a higher GDP of 0.7% just for the GDP per person to stand still.
How dare, how bloody dare, the Tories oppose Labour policies, the rotters!!!
223 Jimbo - Would be ‘game-changer’, though. Seems unlikely, but then so was the return of Peter Mandelson.
224. I am fairly sure I remember it wasnt in Brown’s speech..havent we been through this before..Ming picked it up from the press releases because he had more time to read them during Cameron’s reply.
227. yes surely Her Majesty’s official opposition should support what the Government is doing because as the PM says, he always makes the right decisions. FACT
223 It would be pretty desperate. Still Brown is, and it’s not as if he’s a stickler for any so called ‘convention’s unless it suits his own nefarious ends.
226 Arghhh I should have written.
The 2 million foreign workers within a total of 4 million more people requires a higher GDP of a whopping 7% just for the GDP per person to stand still. That is why most people feel little better off.
Peston would of course struggle to understand this.
The reason i mention Xmas Day is because its on a Thursday.
228. Yes, it is a chance, say 5% maybe. but I just don’t think Labour or any of the parties are geared up for a snap election now. Also turnout is important and getting people to turnout in the the dark depths of December is tough, people don’t answer the doors in the dark, and activists don’t like being active in sh*tty weather. I just can’t see it….unless lots of organising has been going on unnoticed?
233. yes I think logistically a dec election is impossible unless you have it on xmas day which is about as silly an idea there has ever been. Move along now sir….nothing to see here
234 - I wouldn’t put it as high as 5%. But one thing occurs to me - it’s generally reckoned that the Conservatives have the advantage in the activist operation. So choosing mid-winter might be viewed as partially neutralising that advantage.
229 - No. It was in the speech. Direct from Hansard:
“So having put in place more focused ways of incentivising work and directly supporting children and pensioners at a cost of £3 billion a year, I can now return income tax to just two rates by removing the 10p band on non savings income.”
O/T I have just been surveyed by YouGov and asked a load of political questions, including the classic “If there was a General Election, who would you vote for?”.
Does anyone more savvy in the ways of YouGov know when the results will get published?
Can anyone tell me, is there a minimum period between announcing a General Election and holding it?
234. And how could that have happened..!?
234. Who would that work for though?
If Labour reckon that they’d get less benefit from the ground game than the other two then it’d make sense to go.
Probably near impossible to gauge who’d benefit from such a thing though.
237. Noted..thanks..the meaning is of course very well hidden from the uninitiated so Ming was on the ball to spot it…
Hopefully, Darling will stick to exhorting the banks to relax their lending to businesses and householders. Trying to compel them is likely to have unintended consequences:
1. Capping rates for existing loans or forcing banks to roll-over existing loans is fine but would banks be prepared to lend to new businesses. You could have a situation where start-ups are starved of cash at the expense of existing inefficient businesses. Actually, Cameron’s idea of letting companies defer tax payments would have the effect of letting them borrow directly from the government. This might be a better idea.
2. As for preventing repossessions, surely mort*gage rates are usually lower than the normal cost of borrowing because the loan is secured on the property. If the borrower defaults the lender can rely on repossessing the house to clear the debt. If you remove this option, lenders will ask for higher interest charges to cover the extra risk. We will then all suffer.
A better policy is not to forbid repossessions but to subsidise those who fall on hard times, either by paying their interest charges or re-housing them.
3. The banks would, in effect, be told to tie up more of their lending in businesses which they see as risky. If they made provisions for potential bad debts this will hit their reserves and reduce their capital base still further.
4. The extent of the bad assets held by the banks has still not been revealed. Looking at their share prices the market obviously thinks there is more bad news to come. And this before the exposure to the UK market has really been felt, as we seem to have entered the recession slightly later than most other countries. The current and belated prudence of the bankers might be well timed.
In previous recession I noticed two recurring complaints: the banks pulled the rug from under viable businesses and large companies delayed paying small companies. Mercifully, the government usually keeps its strictures to exhortations rather than action.
re 213 he did say it in the speech, but it was buried away. What he actually said was
Having put in place more focused ways of incentivising work and directly supporting children and pensioners at a cost of £3 billion a year, I can now return income tax to just two rates by removing the 10p band on non-savings income.
which is being quite obfuscatory. Quite what the second clause of the sentence has to do with the first escapes me.
239. 17 days
210
ken
Thanks.
But I’m just a simple retired accountant..
re 233 but alas Christmas day is a dies non as far as elections are concerned.
re 234 nonsense - turnout in February 74 was 78%+
Interesting and sobre article on the topic of the moment - Brown’s polling bounce - by Simon Jenkins:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/nov/21/david-cameron-gordon-brown-polls
243. It’s not just about existing bank losses that may or may not be hidden. The market is starting to wake up to the scale of potential losses that will come as a result of the recession. Some estimates suggest these will exceed the losses on structured products, MBS etc.
It’s no coincidence that Cameron and others have been asking whether a second bank bailout might be needed. And if that is a risk (as I believe it is) then it is madness for the government to be issuing threats about forcing banks to lend more riskily…
re 239 yes stjohn, there is
Proclamation summoning new Parliament/dissolution of
old Parliament/issue of writDay 0
Receipt of writ Day 1
Last day for publication of notice of election (4pm) Day 3
Last day for delivery of nomination papers/withdrawals
of candidature/appointment of election agents(4pm)
Day 6
Statement of persons nominated published at close of
time for making objections to nomination papers (5 pm
on Day 6) or as soon afterwards as any objections are
disposed of
Last day for receipt of absent voting applications (5pm) Day 11
Last day for appointment of polling and counting agents Day 15
Polling Day (7 am – 10 pm) Day 17
244 - I think that’s quite clear and certainly clear enough for doddery, absent-minded pensioner and one-time Lib Dem leader, Ming Campbell to pick up on it. That Cameron didn’t is for him to answer to.
The quote was prefaced by general comments on how tax credits etc were more effective at giving poor people money than the 10p band, so it was really quite heavily flagged.
My undertsanding is you have 45 days so it could be early next year. It was a third hand rumour supposedly from somebody connected but is probably nonsense. Still thought it would be an interesting move, certainly a bold one.
the unfunded giveaway won’t work. Better to go the country before that’s been found out?
On the issue of a possible General Election in January, it would have to be held at the end of the month to allow for a campaign after the New Year. So it would be held 2 months+ from today. An American Senator interviewed on Today this morning commented that he expected the economic situation to change for the worse between now and Obama becoming President on 20 January. The same would be true for the UK.
Calling an election against this background looks a substantial risk.
In addition, one could imagine various organisations emerging during the campaign with pleas for Government funding, putting pressure on Labour.
208. Surely that’s just a ploy from CCHQ to remind everyone of the election that wasnt. Stoke up rumours over the weekend, its never going to happen, so everyone’s memory of Brown’s incompetence is refreshed.
An election in late Jan, Feb would be a bold move,and as the Tories are in disarray about their policies on the economy could pay off.
Not sure why announce it early though.
Mike, I have tried to make a third post today and it is still being lost - or in moderation. What is going on?
I beleive it is only a convention that elections have to be held on a Thursday?
I also believe that I can’t spell believe….
Perhaps the election can held atraight after the PBR, before anyone has time to read the small print.
245 It could be done then - called on Monday 24th for a GE the week beginning Monday 15th December.
For those interested, UKNOVA have just made UK Election night broadcasts from 1950 onwards available to download.
255 Heh heh. That makes sense.
255 I can say that such as the source was, it was not at all from CCHQ or anybody connected with the Tory party.
Again, I just thought it worth mentioning, not giving it too much credence as I don’t think Brown has the guts.
241/251. corporeal and Chris A. Thanks. So, in theory, Brown could announce a General Eelction on Monday 24/11/08 and it could be held on 11th or 18th December.
100/1 with Ladbrokes a 2008 General Election. I’ve had a small bet.
256. Could you point out how the Conservatives are in disarray on the economy..for the first time in a long time I am very clear what the Conservatives policy is and how it stands out in contrast to the profligate socialist nonsense spouted by Labour and their Libdem poodles. Yes they have changed tact but that is in response to an unprecedeted change in circumstances and conditions.
194
…let’s pull no punches here…
Absolutely, so let’s not: HBOS and RBS were bust banks and had they not taken the government shilling, they would have been unable to open for business on that fateful Monday morning.
[http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/04/17805/varley-my-perspective-on-barclays-capital-raising/]
That’s how serious it was.
Now when we have people saying:
bank recap: tick
spinning it as if it were Brown’s finest hour - it was either that, or put troops on the streets.
The standatd is suggesting June..
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23590649-details/Brown+allies%3A+Go+for+June+4+election/article.do
258 - Yes, you occasionally get local council by-elections and things on other days. I recall one in Norfolk where one of the polling stations was needed for a panto on the Thursday so they went for Tuesday instead - not sure if Brown could use that as a reason to go on another day!
268 ’spinning it as if it were Brown’s finest hour - it was either that, or put troops on the streets’
I doubt it was even Browns choice to make - I’m guessing others within HMG/Civil Service had drawn up the plan, made the decision and pointed out to Brown/Darling the momentous folly of failing to rubber stamp it.
re 258 elections can be held any day except Saturday, Sunday or bank holidays.
272. I thought that in theory they *could* be held at a weekend, but in practice they are always on Thursdays.
Only a fool would call a snap election before the spring.
No chance.
271. That is to give too little credit to the politicians. They are the ones who have to give the green light to hundreds of billion in guarantees. No matter that someone else put together the plan, the decision rests with the Minister. No obvious alternative, but it is still a big decision. (I still say Gordon looked unnatural at that point.)
re 261 if election were announced on Monday, parliament could be dissolved on Tuesday and the election would be Thursday 18th December.
The Conservative economic policy - today - appears to be no stimulus to the economy*, nationalise banks^ or set up a state bank, err and that’s it I think.
* Alan Duncan - “And so it might turn out that greater borrowing, instead of stimulating the economy, could in fact sink it.”
^FT - “George Osborne, shadow chancellor, on Thursday called on the government to consider acting as a bank – offering direct loans to business”
270 The joyous notion of a General Election/Christmas panto crossover.
Jack and the Beanstalk - in which everyone is given the stimulus package of five magic beans….
over to you, team - we can run with this on a Friday afternoon, I reckon!
269.The standatd is suggesting June..
Can’t see it happening. He missed his chance last year and things can only go downhill from here.
Any attempt to go on the strength of the recent mini bounce will be seen by the electors as opportunism and I don’t think they would be very forgiving while jobs are going down the tubes wholesale.
O/T John Sergeant to become the new Countdown presenter, 17.5/1 on Betfair? Nah, I prefer my two quids worth on Gyles Brandreth at 49/1.
snap election speculation growing
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23590649-details/Brown+allies%3A+Go+for+June+4+election/article.do
Gordon Brown on Radio 2
278 Mandy would be the wicked queen, and Brown the pantomime dame. Or vice versa.
Balls & Darling as the ugly sisters. Or Blears and Beckett?
276 does it have to be 3 weeks? couldn’t it be up to 45 days pushing it into Jan…?
re 273 no they can’t, at least not since the enactment of the Representation of the People Act 1985
281. Sorry for the double post
This one is even more interesting
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3028486/who-is-stoking-the-early-election-specualtion.thtml
274. Quite. I can’t even believe that people are even entertaining the idea of a Christmas poll – there hasn’t been festive election since before the War. It’s too dark and therefore, as you say, there is *no* chance of an election until April at the very earliest.
276 There is a very, very narrow window for Brown in which the “decisive action” narrative applies - before it is replaced by the disappointing reality that the Govt. has largely been ineffective. That window is now. It will get worse for Labour. I think a GE is a real possibility.
100-1 for 2008? Looks good….
“After the fiasco of the cancelled election last autumn, Number 10 is highly nervous of speculation about a date, and aides have instructed senior Labour figures not to discuss it in public.”
- or private I would suggest!
284. Test – there is no chance of a poll in midwinter – the days are simply to short so April is the earliest there could be one.
269. Reading that piece its clear that an early election wasnt a CCHQ rumour but Labour really being iditotic again in talking up an election. Their hubris and overblown euphoria is astonishing.
Have they learnt nothing from the debacle of last October. They seem to be confusing the hype of a MSM and Westminster bubble desperate to have a real fight with reality.
I think we do need a marginal poll to remind Brown that this country really isnt going to be stupid enough to give him another 5 years and he can forget about an election and focus on using his last 18 months trying to save the world.
re 284 yes 17 days is it - no more and no less. But the timetable starts at the dissolution of parliament. Major announced the election in 1992 well before the dissolution. Why would Brown announce an election now, weeks before he needs to.
281 Disinformation by CCO. Or a bluff from The Bunker to put the Tories into a flap and smoke out Dave? My money is on GO.
288. I wouldn’t consider it value even at that long price Mark. The days are too short and there hasn’t been a poll at Christmas since before the war.
288. I wouldn’t consider it value even at that long price Mark. The days are too short and there hasn’t been a poll at Christmas since before the war.
286 the first comment says Fraser Nelson says January which would tie in with what I heard
re 287 this “too dark” argument is just plain nonsense. We have a lot more and better street lighting than we did in 1923 or 1918 or 1910.
The situation is going to get worse throughout the next year, it would be suicidal for the government to call an election until it has to in 2010.
We found in the US election that voters really can be trusted to see the underlying situation beyond any spin and obfuscation, there’s too much patronising guff about people not seeing what is happening here and that an early vote would benefit the government because they don’t really understand how bad things are. I think they do, and an election campaign, however short, will only serve to reinforce that.
293. Brogan also speculating
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/11/measuring-the-p.html
For a true picture or the economic situation that GB likes to hide see:http://www.reform.co.uk/theholeweareinandhowtogetoutofit_524.php
Also Mr Patel can toddle off to post his, his wife’s, his children’s, his friends from the mosque’s, people he’s talked to in the street’s votes in broad daylight.
But seriously if there were ana election next month I would predict turnout would be huge whatever the amount of daylight and would dwarf that of 2001 or 2005.
Isnt it just possible Gordon will let Darling present the PBR, if the markets dont spook then say, thats my plan and I want the backing of the nation?
277. I see you clearly need some help in understanding or maybe you are being deliberately thick.
The Conservatives do think a stimulus is a good idea but they believe that funding a stimulus by borrowing when Brown has wasted billions and already has massive borrowing levels would not fix but instead just prolong the recession.
They think any stimulus needs to be funded and that the public finances must be secured to avoid all sorts of problems not least of those being a currency crisis and the possibility of a 1930’s depression.
Finally, they do not have the hubris or lack of intelligence to think that they should promise the undeliverable (see Darling and BRown today) or to do something, however ill advised or unlikely to fail, simply because it might gain them a few points in the opinion polls.
Banking liquidity remains a problem so that banks whilst rightly are no longer lending to credits risks are alos not lending to viable and secure businesses. Therefore, radical, deliverable steps shoudl be taken to support small businesses that remain viable.
Hardly disarry just sensible, realistic and deliverable and hence in stark contrast to Labour and their poodles profligate delusions.
An election the week before Xmas day??
Would hand the Tories a wonderful slogan to use.
“Don’t be a turkey voting for Christmas!”
I do think it’s rather funny that the Prime Minister and Labour have been throwing accusations of party politicking at the Conservatives in the last couple of weeks (Baby P, Sterling etc) when it is clear that plenty of Labour people are ramping the idea of an early GE to cash in on the ‘Super Gordon’ narrative before things go sour next year. Pot and kettle? The hypocracy and arrogance of Labour is astonishing sometimes!
286. LOL. Brown “allies” stoking snap election rumours worked really well last year, right?
I don’t need to be deliberately thick. But a stimulus not funded by borrowing is no stimulus - the cuts would balance the spend - unless you cut expenditure abroad (Iraq, Afghanistan , defence equipment from abroad etc.). The state bank seems very half baked and not a little surprising coming from a party previously in love with the market.
Gordon’s problem is that people hold onto nurse when they are approaching a danger, so he has hyped up the crisis and hyped his competence in dealing with it. Unusually in a recession when Chancellors try to build confidence and minimise risks we have a Government issuing bleak forecasts of global financial meltdown. When the worst happens then they let go of nurse, who is exposed as having led them into the danger, and look for someone else.
The banking bail out was an action to stop financial collapse, with hopes that it would ease the squeeze. Standard Chartered and the Treasury produced a plan to provide necessary capital and give banks the space to de-leverage etc and return their balance sheets to sufficient health in time. Its been oversold as freeing the banks to resume lending at pre-bubble burst levels, removing toxic assets and making the world as it was in June 2007. That false prospectus is now being exposed.
An election in January or February might get some voters still wanting to hold onto nurse but IMHO the electorate will ask “Why now?” and draw the negative conclusions.
A 2008 GE would represent my finest hour in political betting - a profit of £826 for a net investment of minus £2, bring it on!
One Labour official added: “Gordon hates to be boxed in. If he thinks everyone is expecting him to go for 4 June, he will want to keep his options open for a snap election in April. The G20 meeting would be a kind of coronation for him in that case.
Just like Brown saying November’s G20 was “Bretton Woods for the New Age”……. lol what a bunch of idiots these guys are.
Bring on the election as soon as poss. I’d gladly vote these gits out of office on Christmas Day and have one massive party.
Or maybe we could have the election on New Year’s Day, when the hangover has kicked in……
308
Fiscal stimulus?
All Gordon needs to do is give a little and promise electricty and gas prices will be reduced - by law if needed.
the fact that falling oil prices will drive them down is a mere co-incidence.
Thus in March as consumers’ spending pwoer improves,,, but before unemplyment gets too large he can call an early May election with deflation as a positive.
Much later and the wheels fall off..
i love deflation?
Rail fares set to rise steeply next year
By Robert Wright, Transport Correspondent
Published: November 21 2008 10:50 | Last updated: November 21 2008 10:50
Rail passengers face the largest single fares increase since privatisation from January, with the average cost of using some services set to rise by as much as 11 per cent.
309..i am with you all the way Peter. go Gordon go!
312
Obviously reflecting oil prices?
So much for regulatory bodies.
310 Will Barack want to come in April? Might there be something else he wants to do?
309, 313 - Quite a lot of activity on BetFair. I join in the entirely altruistic and proper calls for a 2008 election. Will those political advisers who read this blog please tell Mr Brown that he is the greatest politician ever, and that the country is crying out for an opportunity to demonstrate their support for him as quickly as possible. [This has nothing to do with the fact that I got 250-1]
“But a stimulus not funded by borrowing is no stimulus - the cuts would balance the spend”
Not if higher earners contribute more, with the target of reducing their tax in better times.
Just listened to Brown,(phonein) on Jeremy Vine, he seemed to get a pretty good reception.
I’m an absolute sceptic on the question of an early election….but then again!
311
All this criticism of the privatised energy/rail companies by, ‘Tories’asking for the government, to order them to do this ‘an that, isn’t that somewhat misplaced?
Next we’ll be having George Osborne telling the government to force the banks to do this ‘an that, Oh! sorry of course he has.
Whatever happened to the free market, gorn off it I suppose?
[301] - “But seriously if there were ana election next month I would predict turnout would be huge whatever the amount of daylight and would dwarf that of 2001 or 2005.”
I agree. Something like a 75% turnout is not impossible, which would mean Labour could receive slightly more absolute votes with a 30% poll share, which is also plausible.
316 - More seriously, it is a bit surprising that the odds on 2009 haven’t shifted more.
318
Of course privatised ail companies are not a free market . Prices are determined by a regulator.
If you knew that, your comment was disengenuous.
If you did not know that, you are ill informed.
Either way.. you are wrong.
So waht’s new?
Imagine an election campaign all through December - the joy! Peace and Goodwill to all men (apart from Gordon Brown).
Thought I should comment on the lobby/passes/blogs stuf since people were kind enough to mention me upthread.
Personally I think the best interim solution would be some sort of arrangement like the overseas media or sketch writers have - attendence at events, but don’t generally ask questions at press conferences or go to lobby briefings unless something unusual is afoot.
What I’d hate is for blogges to become the parliamentary equivalent of the guy in the meeting who always goes on for ages with what he thinks is a question and everyone else thinks is a rant. i think some of us might do that. Imagine me at a tory press conference!
The straight media passes aren’t that big a deal really, As Nick Palmer says I think most bloggers could find a way to get a commons opr lords pass if they wanted to (I get one through my day job, for example)
The lobby passes are quite a big benefit. Funnily enough, no-ones mentioned the reason they’re good. You get to go into the Members Lobby, and can speak to MPs there (historically “on Lobby terms”.)
That not sound like much, but if you want to get a sense of what people think, or to grab hold of a shadow cabinet minister or MP in the news, it’s pretty invaluable. If there’s a division, you know they’re likely to be there.
Personally, I don’t think going to Labby briefings would be that enlightening to most. How many bloggers quote PMOS now? Subscribe to Gallery news and you get the sense of it without having to waste an hour.
So what joyous news are we going to get “from America” today?
Citigroup broken up?
GM / Ford bankrupt?
the fun never ends…… can we get odds on any of the above?
OT
US economy…
Here is a wonderful chart that illustrates the impotence of central banks today. It tracks the spread between the 30 year US mortgage rate and the federal funds rate. In more simple terms; the spread is the difference between the two interest rates.
The mortgage rate is determined by market forces, such as the supply and demand for credit, and more generally the willingness of banks to take on more risk. The federal funds rate is the policy instrument of the US central bank. By changing the federal funds rate, the Fed hopes to manage all interest rates, including the 30 year mortgage rate, and ultimately the whole US economy.
With the collapse of the US housing market and the onset of the credit crisis, the Fed cut rates, but mortgage rates remained stubbornly high. This means that the spread goes up.
This breakdown in the relationship between mortgage and policy rates, probably goes a long way to explain a paragraph in the minutes of the most recent Fed meeting on interest rates:
“Some members were concerned that the effectiveness of cuts in the target federal funds rate may have been diminished by the financial dislocations, suggesting that further policy action might have limited efficacy in promoting a recovery in economic growth. And some also noted that the Committee had limited room to lower its federal funds rate target further and should therefore consider moving slowly.
However, others maintained that the possibility of reduced policy effectiveness and the limited scope for reducing the target further were reasons for a more aggressive policy adjustment; an easing of policy should contribute to a beneficial reduction in some borrowing costs, even if a given rate reduction currently would elicit a smaller effect than in more typical circumstances, and more aggressive easing should reduce the odds of a deflationary outcome.”
In other words, half the fed policy committee think changes in rates are useless, while the other half think rate cuts might work if they are large enough. Unfortunately for the Fed, rates are now at just 1 percent. They can’t go lower than zero, so the Fed might have lost total control over monetary policy.
However, when I look at the chart above, I wonder whether the Fed ever really controlled mortgage rates. During the bubble years, the spread went down to one percent. Even though the Fed tried to stem the housing bubble, banks wouldn’t play along. They kept rates low despite the policy actions of the Fed.
The chart also points to a more difficult question; how will the US market recover with mortgage rates remaining so high. The answer, of course, is that it won’t.
http://ukhousebubble.blogspot.com/
Further to the sepculation above these are the intervals between the announcment of the election and dissolution since the war. So they can be add to 23 days (17 statutory days + weekends + any bank holidays) between dissolution and election.
1945 23
1950 23
1951 16
1955 21
1959 10
1964 10
1966 10
1970 11
1974(F) 1
1974(O) 2
1979 9
1983 4
1987 7
1992 5
1997 22
2001 5
2005 9
322. Cue Labour claims that attacking their economic policy would be ‘against the spirit of Christmas’.
296. Then Fraser Nelson is an idiot. He knows full well that there will be no poll in midwinter and he’s saying it, as usual, for dramatic effect.
The tory PBR response should be this…
“you (GB) have destroyed the british economy through your mismanagement and incompetence, and with every passing week you are making the situation worse for your own personal gain. so i ask you, call this election and call it now. you have neither the mandate nor the skills to govern, and the country deserves an untainted, steady hand. give the british people the choice”
that would send the bottler scuttling away, and provide some nice tv. it’s also absolutely true
Whenever the election comes, be it January, April, June or September, the public will decide which is the party they trust to get them through these quite exceptional times of global economic distress.
A) the party that works with others of all political persuasion across the world, focusing on co-operation and keeping the economy going (with the endorsements of Nobel Prize winning economists, and folks like Soros, the CBI, IOD, IMF Head, etc etc)
or
B) a party still not sure about the full impact of the crisis and which advocates small scale monetarist tinkering, pushing on a piece of string, or just “letting the recession take its own course!”
321
I had quite a lot to do with the, ‘regulator’ (ofgas now ofgem) I can assure you, ‘they do not set prices’ They can order the various industries to ‘justify’ any price increase. Providing the industry in question can provide ‘justification’ the regulator is satisified.
The regulator does have the right to order the industry in question, to restructure if it is in the opinion of the regulator that it is behaving in a manner contrary to the consumers best interest.
When ever the regulator has done this, the situation is made worse.
I see Pravda Robinson has yet to challenge the government’s brilliant plan to combat high debt and excessive borrowing with excessive debt and high borrowing. Must be too busy cleaning Alistair Campbell’s shoes and giving Mandelson a massage.
330. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
304. No chance Penny. No chance. There has not been a poll in December since the 1920s and they will not be one now!
307. Now you are being thick…of course you can cut in a number of areas, there is mass of wholly unproductive spending. You replace it with proudctive targeted tax cuts…you can also cut interest rates more and rely less on tax cuts…
This rehash of the election nonsense could be the next big turn in the narrative. Of course the media will stoke it as they did before..in fact its very likely that is very much the reason Brown’s had such an easy ride..they are tempting him to try again and looks like he and his minions are being silly enough to fall for it..lets hope so, I thought we had him for another 18 months but the utterley cathartic bliss of his concession speech may be with us sooner.
330, wow, I never realised the Tories were pro-recession. I’m definitely voting Labour now!
333. Don’t worry, it’s time for Runnymede’s afternoon nap.
336. More astroturfing from Morris!
News thread: Has the PM been transformed into a “risk taker”?
324 “So what joyous news are we going to get “from America” today?
Citigroup broken up?
GM / Ford bankrupt?
the fun never ends…… can we get odds on any of the above?
Do doubt the Tories blame Gordon Brown for this as well.
340. Correct Jonathan. It’s all Gordon’s fault!
330. Well it would be nice if the voters had choice a) but instead the only alternative to Cameron’s prudence is a man principally driven by the pursuit of power, hatred of his opponents and a total inability to learn from previous mistakes. As pointed out, it would take someone as delusional as Gordon Brown to believe that high borrowing is the cure for a problem created by high borrowing. His gobal support is spin and a cursory review of the international press will help you realise that its a view very much made in Labour HQ alone.
Correction : It’s nearly all Gordon’s fault.
Of course it is as much Brown’s fault as anyone’s.
He was finance minster of what used to be one of the world’s largest economies for 10 years during the whole massive credit bubble, which he did nothing to stop or prevent until it was too late.
301-Bieng mr Patel maybe the Hindu temple. But aren’t Hindus (and Sikhs [and Jews]) the non-captive minority vote? ie they spread their wares cross-party?