What will happen to green politics during the recession?
October 28th, 2008
Is the environment only something we care about when we are prosperous?
The chart above is from the latest Ipsos-MORI and shows responses to the firm’s unprompted “What do you thing are the main/important issues facing Britain today” which they have been asking in exactly the same way for more than two decades.
As can be expected the current top topic raised by respondents was the economy. But just look at the way “green” concerns have been declining. When your main interest is just making ends meet then caring for the planet might be put on the back-burner.
With the three main parties all articulating quite radical approaches to climate change it will be interesting to watch how important they regard this in the eighteen months up to the election. My guess is that their enthusiasm will be like the chart above.
Spread betting report. The latest US election spreads on electoral college votes from PB’s spread-betting sponsor, Sporting Index are:- OBAMA 344-350: MCCAIN 188-194. In addition there’s a big range of other US election markets.
The UK general election commons seats spreads have moved a couple of notches to Labour. The latest figures are CON 340-346: LAB 236-242: LD 43-46 seats.
Those who open an account through the links on the site will get a free copy of my book - “The Political Punter”.
Mike Smithson
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First?
Green issues such as recycling is not too far from austerity. It will change, but will still be there in increasing importance.
Green politics are not an essential.
In recessions, people concentrate of being able to afford to live. Period.
Green issues largely cost more money.
So they will inevitably be seen as the preserve of the rich..
Hmmmm…. The Ross/Brand debacle giving the The Conservatives the opportunity to leave the BBC in no doubt where they (the BBC) stand with them.
R2K: Obama 50, McCain 43
Zogby: Obama 49, McCain 45
3 - “Green issues largely cost more money.”
Not that I want to get into a huge debate over it but I would have thought that reducing, reusing and recycling (the main plank of greenery) would very economical and hence well suited to our current times.
6
“largely”
As in wind power, tidal power, solar energy.
The gnashing of liberal teeth over green issues will be drowned out by the economy crashing.
Also voters will wise up to Brown sending money to India while they enter the space race - hardly carbon neutral ?
The SPIN Obama EV spread at 342-348 (down in recent days) contrasts with Intrade, which has mid-spreads of a 61% chance of Obama getting more than 350, and a 50% chance of him getting more than 360.
Anyone know why there is this difference?
Rasmussen Tracker:
O 51, M 46 (unchanged)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
I’ve become increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for radical environmental policies since the Canadian campaign. Here are a couple of good articles on the subject.
Jeffrey Simpson of the Globe and Mail outlines just what a liability the “green shift” proved to be for the Liberals:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081022.COSIMP22/TPStory/Environment
However, Andrew Coyne of Maclean’s argues that the green shift concept isn’t necessarily to blame:
http://blog.macleans.ca/2008/10/23/the-green-shift-that-might-have-been/
I suppose you pays your money and you takes your choice. But I’m far from happy with the fiscal implications of Coyne’s attempt to remodel the green shift into practical politics.
7, those ideas are somewhat tosh. Wind only works when it’s windy. If it isn’t windy then you need power, so the non-wind sources must be able to cope with the entire nation’s needs. Therefore the wind is additional to what we have now, but can’t replace any of it.
Tidal is great because it’s predictable, and we have a huge coastline, but I’m not sure how viable it is currently.
Saw a James May prog where he discussed renewable energy. The most interesting was wind, not shitty turbines, but kites on enormous tethers that fly into the jet stream.
Green Issues do not merit the time of day.
9 It’s a different clientele, Richard, that’s all.
There was a well-documented attempt to distort Intrade numbers recently. Did you follow that story?
13 - It seems that a consistent 5% - 15% of voters over the past couple of years strongly disagree with you.
15, so 85-95% of voters agree with him?:p
New Datamar poll for Florida :
McCain 44.6% .. Obama 49.2%
http://www.datamar.net/pdf/flpg102708.pdf
I see Brown is banging on again about how retailers “must” cut the price of petrol. Petrol is now at the same price as it was about 15 months ago when oil was last at this level. If he really wants to go on about profiteering why not stick up for those - like me -who drive petrol cars when the diesel premium has gone up from 0.8p per litre in August 2007 to over 11p per litre now.
“We’re finding our vote is very strong and we are optimistic that we have the momentum. It’s a totally different feeling from in Glasgow East with ten days to go, when the SNP had the momentum.” says a “Labour source” in the Times.
Only trouble with this, of course, is that they expected to win Glasgow East as well. It’s easy to say in hindsight that “the SNP had the momentum”, but it certainly didn’t seem that way at the time. The odds on an SNP victory were drifting steadily until the final results were in.
5%-15% is a big spread and shows just how gullible is the electorate.
14 Yes, PtP, the attempt at distortion on Intrade was most bizarre, especially it left open the opportunity of virtually risk-free arbitrage without even leaving Intrade. I still can’t see what they were trying to achieve.
But the ‘different clientele’ doesn’t quite answer the question as to who is right. In a reasonably liquid market, it does seem odd that these discrepancies exist. I haven’t yet launched into full-scale cross-market arbitrage, but there do seem to be surprising anomalies, and therefore opportunities.
Battleground Tracker:
O 49, M 46 (unchanged)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_102808_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf
New SUSA poll for Ohio :
McCain 45% .. Obama 49%
Note - Obama +13 early voters.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8247ab3a-7593-421d-8100-61e6e00ebc0b
16 - That doesnt follow. The others may not see it as a main / other important issue but may still think it is worth the time of day
I’d be surprised if you didnt find a significant minority who also thought that green issues were important but because they were commie, evil, anti-scientific or otherwise going to bring around the end of civilisation as we know it. (I wouldnt be surprised if Graham was one of these…)
18 Maybe the diesel price will drop in a recession, less commercial demand for it.
17. Jack, I feel a general tightening of the race is starting to happen (undecideds breaking for McCain?). Is this your impression? The state polling also seems to reflect this (good numbers for McCain in NC, MO, IN and now FL).
An important consideration is that as oil (and other energy) prices drop, the attractiveness of all these bizarre alternative energy sources in cash terms diminishes dramatically. They all required massive subsidies when oil was expensive, now with it heading south of $60, the economic case is further diminished. The UK does need to build more powerstations, so it will be interesting to see how the debate on these pans out. Of course this argument also applies to nuclear (an expensive, but probably* less expensive than wind, solar etc), but good for base load and as a source of diversification of supply.
* waste disposal makes the calculation difficult and the difference between nuclear - a reliable base load supplier and marginal supplies such as wind and solar make comparisons difficult. Wave is more reliable.
Sadly Mike is right. Green issues (and even human, animal rights) only matter when a country is prosperous.
The environmentally friendly policies are generally a plus for the relatively comfortable (but with a sense of guilt and conscience) middle class.
Also the drop (some say undershoot) in oil will kill off most alternative energy funding. Many companies will go bust and the next oil shock in a few years time will see prices $200-$300/barrel.
What we think of as Green Politics to date has actually been green consumerism. By buying different and always more expensive sort of stuff but still stuff you can save the world. Or at least feel less guilt about it.
Thats dead for the duration of a recession as people are looking for margins to cut. Look at what is happening to organic and free range products in super markets.
However with some savvy marketing the core Green messages can be sold in a recession.
1. Reduce, Reuse, Recycle is an alliterative version of “Thrift”.
2. If you are ever going to sell a critique of consumerism then surely its when people don’t have as much money to consume.
3. Necessity is the mother of Invention. Lagging the loft is never going to be sexy but with utilities as they are…
What will be interesting is to see if any politican goes into this territory. At the minute the discourse is who burst the bubble/ how do we get the bubble started again.
No one is asking whether the bubble was a good idea in the first place. If you want a serious critique of our cash rich/time poor consumption models then you have to look to a celebrity Chef.
Also remember if things get really tough you can always dress a keynesian stimulous package in Green Clothes. Eg the Green new Deal that was published a month ago.
However I basically agree with the slant of Mikes Article. Its Maslows Heirarchy of Needs. You’ll only get people focused on spiritual/existential issues like the planet when they are feeling ok financially.
Latest Diageo/Hotline tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 50% .. Unchanged.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/dailytracker/
20-
Of course the government loved the green agenda. An easy way to extort more money from the taxpayer under a supposedly noble cause. Unfortunately now there is a recession that horse has bolted. How many of Labour’s green taxes were “fiscally neutral”? Very few I’d wager.
I expect stroies about climate change, global warming and global schwarming to drastically decrease over the coming year.
26 Stickers. Slight tightening at the margin on the trackers, no more. State polls remain very good for Obama.
28..light crude can be be bought for the next 8 years for well below $100.
I hope they sort out the problem soon. It is snowing in Stafford and I can’t stand much more of this global warming.
32-I agree. A case of too little too late.
Can all the polls possibly be wrong? Unfortunately not.
New University of New Hampshire Poll for New Hampshire :
McCain 39% .. Obama 55%
http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081028/NEWSBLOG/810280528/-1/XML15
34-Behind the curve!!!
It’s called climate change now. It explains unusual heat (and snow). Gettit?
22. Battleground is unchanged!!!! Surely this amazing occurrence deserves a thread of its very own?
Pretty much complete stasis in the US race at the moment, maybe for another day or two it will stick at a 6% Obama lead or thereabouts on average, chance for some last minute movement over the weekend but I would imagine Obama has something up his sleeve to try and take over the news cycle (his 30 minute ad buys should help that).
Obama is nearly at his high point (over 50%), McCain has dragged himself back up to where he was at the start of October (RCP avges), trackers converging from above and below onto a similar lead.
What is surprising is how little things have changed prediction wise over the many, many months, a win of 3% or so was what I predicted back in the ice age, looks like it might be slightly more than that but essentially you are looking at a polarised country who mostly knew what they wanted all along. Now, I think it may be 5% or so nationally.
37. When I was a kid (70s) they were warning that we were heading for an ice age, because of global cooling. I want Gordon to announce that he’s solved the problem and there’ll be no more warming and cooling.
The graph above says Kensal Rise was hit by a hurricane - it wasn’t, it was a tornado!
34. Great weather story – I heard that there could be some around today but not at low levels. Even London was chuffing cold this morning (although sunny and glorious).
When was the last time England had snow in October at low levels?
Tennis tip: Del Potro to win Paris, around 25/1 or so. He’s looking terrific in the current match (6-0 first set against Ancic, who’s a pretty fine player), and has a great draw. The surface on the indoor court clearly suits him - its high bounce means it hops up right into his hitting zone, and up there his flat groundstrokes off both sides are something special. Easy layoff for later, even if he tires
43, thanks:)
Lots of chat about what people THINK.
The fact is that emissions will fall in a recession, which is good for greenies, even if the “importance” of the issue goes down according to the polls.
26 If you think the polling is heading McCain’s way, suggest you look at the actual votes being cast - in Louisiana. This is a state which is supposedly locked for McCain. Yet with 11% of the 2004 votes already cast, 2 Democrats have voted for every Republican. 2:1. Two to frickin’ one!!
Now - it is a self-selcting group and should not be treated as a poll. And it might just be a sign that the small number of Obama supporters are voting massively disproportionately early. OR that Democrat registered voters are actually voting for McCain. OR it could be the independents are just embarrassed Republicans who are still voting for McCain.
OR…or perhaps - just perhaps - we are seeing a truly massive vote for Obama, not being picked up in the polls. And that the real story of the 2008 Election will be the massive failure of polling. A polling system, so long structured around close contests, may have contemplated its navel to the point where it can no longer see its belly.
40 Yes I remember that too - I think it was said to be due to a build-up of smoke particles in the atmopshere blotting out the sun.
But it is true that the climate in the UK has got noticeably warmer than it was in those days - especially in winter - and, given the weight of scientific evidence, I think there is more to the global warming argument than there was to the global cooling argument.
46 - I think it will be interesting to see in a week how quickly everyone adjusts if the early states suggest a poll failure.
Thanks for the tennis tip… anyone got a horsey one though?
I need to place a bet on a horse (which I don’t normally do) to get a free bet from SJ. Any suggestions please? Something for the next day or two, somewhere between evens and 10/1 please!
ta
Rob
46- Democratic voter registration in Louisiana is historically way ahead of Republican voter registration. Most people there still register with the Dixiecrat mentality, a mentality that has allowed Democrats to maintain solid majorities in the state House and state Senate ever since the Civil War.
40: By “they”, you mean tabloids. There was pretty much no scientific evidence behind it, it was just a theory being suggested, worth exploring. It was, and discarded.
46. Good points Mark. We really don’t know which is why next Tuesday night will be fascinating. The polls could be underestimating McCain because nobody wants to admit to voting for the doddery old guy. Or racism could be more of an issue than we think.
[12] - Most of the time when it isn’t windy in the south of the country it is windy in the north, and vice versa. Thus, as long as you spread your turbines out, you can move the energy around the country. The grid will need improving for this to work properly though. Further, wind is the easiest meteorological parameter to forecast. It’s much easier to forecast when the wind will blow more weakly than whether an entire power station will drop suddenly off the grid [as happens and as the grid is designed to cope with].
Tidal has several advantages, but there will be periods when it doesn’t generate any power. It’s true that you can predict this in advance with a high degree of precision, and consequently bring other plant online, but a better way might be to think of ways of storing the power in order to produce electricity in a more even output. One idea I’ve heard of is pumping water uphill. This energy storage could also be used as a buffer for more intermittent energy sources such as wind.
We have to replace all of our energy infrastructure in the next 30 years anyway, the marginal cost of doing it in a way that won’t cause global warming is relatively marginal, particularly as the relevant technology matures.
Wave power (as oopsed to tidal) is an attractive alternative to wind simply because a wave is effectively concentrated wind, created by the action of the wind over miles and miles of sea. A single efficient wave machine could replace hundereds of wind turbines.
I do find it peculiar to build wind farms at sea, which have to resist the effect of waves…
Greens tend to be so anti-capitalist that they should pay a visit to North Korea and study environmental despoilation in pre-1990 Eastern Europe and the USSR. But, Greens are difficult to please. Round here it’s a great environment created by regulated and philanthropic capitalism - problem is vandalism, litter, and useless “maximum-tolerance” police.
46. Funnily enough we’ve just taken £2400 at 1/12 for the Republicans in Louisiana. The same client has also had £3200 at 1/16 for Texas.
40 lol
I think he should go further and announce an end to the seasons so that it will be perpetual summer in the UK (spin that snow is actually a summer phenomenen) Moan about other countries not abolishing the seasons. From then on he should abolish ageing, Gravity, and possibly the moon.
The elderly Rep voters will be out in force on THE DAY as in the past.Then we will see, plus of course the Military vote.
46. “And it might just be a sign that the small number of Obama supporters are voting massively disproportionately early. ”
Interesting post Marquee. I have considered all those things and I always come back to the kind of Game Theory question which runs: If Republicans are really scared of Obama, then they should be motivated to vote just as much as Obama supporters. Republicans usually have an advantage in early voting. What possible motive is there to them to stay away in their hundreds of thousands until polling day, given the well-documented queues now traditional in US presidential elections on the final day.
Just thinking out loud.
49 Robert
No jump racing in the UK today but if you give me a ring tomorrow after about 1 pm, I may be able to assist. You have my number.
OK, cheers PtP!
[47] - The aerosol particles do cool the climate, but, even in the 70s, most scientists thought that the long-term build-up of CO2 would eventually create more warming than the cooling from the aerosol particles. This is because the aerosols are washed out of the air in the rain [hence acid rain] in about a week, whereas much of the CO2 stays in the atmosphere for millennia.
To compare alleged predictions of an ice age in the 70s with the predictions for global warming now is ridiculous.
Lib Dems scupper pensions
O/T
Liberals scupper pension reforms…
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/2008/10/labour-and-lib.html
Currently people with personal, defined contribution pensions must buy an annuity at the age of 75. (An annuity gives a pensioner an agreed level of annual income over a given period of time.)
Lord Fowler’s amendment called for a suspension of that rule, in light of the state of the economy.
“This was one of the most shameful Liberal votes in this Parliament. Even if you are in favour of other ideas, there was no case for voting against temporary, urgent help for these elderly people. Their spokesman Lord Oakeshott, was in a jealous huff because the amendment was not his. At a time of crisis, no responsible party would put personal pique and quotes in LibDem newssheets ahead of the interests of tens of thousands of worried families.”
The financial crisis is really ageing Brown. Last night on the news he looked like an old man. I think the difference at the election will be very noticeable, the old Labour and the new generations of Conservatives.
Still think there’s a chance Brown could retire in 2009 and call an election coinciding with election of a sucessor. Just can’t see people voting for 5 more years of the Brown stuff.
52
The MSM are doing all they can to keep the election tight as they try to sell adverising time to their sponsors. When people put their money where their mouth is then Obama is winning easily.
This election resembles 1997 in the UK, rather than 1992. In ‘92 many, many electors claim to have made a decision whilst standing at the ballot box. In ‘97 it was going to be a landslide before a single vote is cast.
Americans, very by and large, have decided who they want as their next President and it isn’t the grumpy old guy from Arizona. The national polls are basically irrelevant, as this is not a national election but an aggregate of state elections. On a state-by-state basis Obama is going to win comfortably; that said having 50 general elections going on at once makes for great interest and tremendous fun.
I shall be looking out for Ohio and Missouri on election night. Along with Pennsylvania they are states that tend to trend later over the election cycles. I feel that this year they may be disappointing for Obama but by 2012 they will be strong for Democrats. Might be wrong but both states will tell us a lot about the mood of middle America.
Malcolm
46- Here’s the data: Louisiana Democratic voter registration outnumbers GOP voter registration by better than 2:1 (52.5% to 25.3%), so early voting demographics there seem to be consistent with overall registration, and not indicative of a disproportionate Democratic early turnout there:
http://69.2.40.145/voter_stats/
66 So, S&S, am I to conclude from that the NON-registered voters lean heavily to the GOP, thus guaranteeing a GOP victory?
I fully expect McCain to win in Louisiana but I must admit I was surprised by the early voting.
The standard weighs in to BBC blogs…
http://londonersdiary.standard.co.uk/2008/10/bbc-caught-by-j.html
66 S&S - thanks for that. Are these the “Haven’t voted Democrat since Carter” Dixie-crat Democrats? Surely there can’t be that many of them still around? Were there a disproportionate number of Democrat-registered Christians who voted for Bush because the Base was fired up for him?
Louisiana will be one of the more fascinating results a week today!
67- No! You should conclude that there appears to be no slant either way in early voter turnout in Louisiana, so there is no need to look for a surprisingly strong result there for either candidate vis a vis their poll standing. Result: McCain victory in Louisiana by a solid margin.
57. In Ovid’s, as opposed to Gordon’s, ‘Golden Age’ it was perpetual Spring, but then he was Italian, so he may have felt all year round summer to be too hot. The seasons only arrived once he got on to the ‘Silver Age’.
“No return to autumn and winter”
33
It can be bought but that doesn’t mean it will be bought.
In the next 8 years there will be a period when those that want to buy it (and haven’t already done so) will pay extreme prices.
An undershoot (extremely low level) causes underinvestment and lack of supply down the road,
Saying that, I think oil will first reach $30-40 before it breaks the previous highs.
69- You have to look at Deep South Democrats differently than you look at other Democrats. They still register as Democrats and vote for Democrats at the state level because the Democratic Party is the party of their grandpappy and their grandpappy’s grandpappy. They do so even though they always vote Republican at the national level, and increasingly vote GOP for other “big” offices (e.g., governor, U.S. senate, U.S. House). But at the local level, where they know they’re not supporting people like Pelosi or Reid by voting for Democrats, they still are fond of voting for old-fashioned southern Democrats.
To answer you directly: these people have voted since Carter, and they’ve been voting for Republicans for president. Many of these Democratic registered voters you’re seeing in the turnout data are voting for McCain, much as they’ve been doing for quite a while.
O/T For Sean T and others
Following last thread’s discussion of good places to live in America, I would argue that the Washington metro area (as opposed to some parts of the District itself) is a great place.
You live with a Madrid/Rome weather (3 days of rain since I arrive 2 and a half months ago) but without the arid feel of southern Europe. Winter is cold but you don’t get months of polar weather like in New England or Chicago.
Autumn walks in the incredibly numerous protected areas of nature (even just outside the beltway, along the banks of the Potomac)are breathtaking.
The concentration of diplomats and international organizations’ empoloyees brings a very cosmopolitan atmosphere (and helps to get European-standard food in supermarkets).
It has all the attractions of a capital (excellent museums, nice monuments, highly-educated worforce) without taking itself too seriously (you can spend hours reading on a bench 30 yards from the White house and take pictures, no questions asked)
“Washington” is always demonized during US political campaigns but it is actually a very nice place.
(as long as you don’t live in the District’s worst parts)
72. If Gordon had said ‘no more tory global warming’ he would have been more correct than with the ‘boom and bust’ nonsense.
Global temperature increase correlates quite well with tory governments. Massive increase under the tories virtually none under Labour. The correlation is better than it is with CO2 increase.
69- Another note: it is interesting that many southern conservatives have never completely broken their links to, or fondness for, the Democratic Party even as they’ve increasingly voted Republican for higher offices. American blacks decisively broke their historical attachment to the GOP in the 1930’s, but southern Dixiecrat whites have never really done the same.
Cabinet revolt over third Heathrow runway.
By lunchtime, at least 48 Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs had signed a Commons motion urging the Government to rethink its policy. The number was expect to rise sharply.
“Some senior ministers have encouraged me to table this motion as there are increasing doubts in government about pressing on regardless with the third runway,” said Labour MP John Grogan.
He refused to name any of the ministers. However, The Standard was told that Environment Secretary Hilary Benn has voiced concerns over air and noise pollution from a third runway.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23578849-details/Heathrow%3A+MPs+plot+revolt+against+third+runway/article.do
76 - And David Cameron said “let sunshine win the day”. Hmm, it all fits.
70 Thanks, S&S. Got that now.
76-Maybe CO2 emissions were a facet of economic growth? I would suppose the US emits more CO2 per head than Congo (either). Hence what you are saying is Tory governments=strong economic growth?
Labour government, less economic activity=less CO2?
Speaking of which - what are Dave’s latest thoughts on the third runway?
[76] - You wouldn’t expect a good correlation with CO2 because most of the other factors that affect the climate change on different timescales to CO2 - eg aerosols from fossil fuel burning, land-use change, solar changes.
Also, I suspect that your point is actually false, since temperatures most likely declined during the long years of Tory rule under Churchill, etc, in the 1950s. As usual with most people trying to be smugly superior and clever about the issue, you haven’t actually bothered to check the facts.
82 John B - The Conservatives oppose it.
82: ‘…what are Dave’s latest thoughts on the third runway?’
Not have one (a runway that is, not thoughts). And good for him.
The hostility to green politics from Tories on this site is entirely predictable, but it’s a natural issue for the Left and the polling figures are not particularly relevant because politicians have to lead this debate, not necessarily to follow it.
Ed Miliband who is now responsible at a ministerial level is also the guy who is writing the next manifesto and I am feeling more confident that Labour will put green issues back where they belong at this point in history - at the heart of the political agenda.
74 Would it follow that the Democrats they vote for at local level are to the right of the national party?
Regarding the Paris Masters: the ATP has it as hard, whereas Betfair appears to have erroneously labelled it as carpet….
http://form.tennis.betfair.com/tennis?action=tournament&origin=TSNTV
http://www.atptennis.com/3/en/tournaments/fullcalendar/
It’s third from bottom on the ATP link.
68. I hate to go on about the BBC but it really is out of control. It seems to me that any pretence of political impartiality on both sides of the pond has gone out of the window and something urgently needs to be done about it.
After its shamefully partial recent coverage of opinion polls and Osborne, today Nick Robinson blogs about Tory problems over Europe. Any opportunity to portray the Tories and the Republicans negatively is taken. I think it stinks from a publicly funded broadcaster.
For those claiming the green policies are the preserve of the rich: Environmental costs are usually external, which is to say they affect different people, usually poorer ones, to those who create the pollution. A factory using a river to dump its effluent into, for instance, will destroy the livelihood of fishermen living downstream. While not so obvious an example, this applies to climate change as well - no one in the developed world over the age of about 40 will suffer much from his own CO2 emissions, but most people being born today will experience disruption to their lives, even if all future targets are met.
83-Only thing I know about climate “change” is it’s boolox. It’s an industry like the race relations industry, equality indutries, etc set up to provide (state or semi-state) jobs to those too superior to work in a truly wealth generating industry.
They have been successful in that they have been able to convince hordes of otherwise sensible people about this, and to poison the debate in such a way that to even question it is viewed akin to a “hate crime”.
86 Eh? The Conservatives have been leading on this one, Ermintrude. They have, however, been opposing tax increases disguised as ‘green’ measures, such as the appalling Vehicle Excise tax con.
76. “vote blue, go red”?
81. if you look at the figures, you’ll see the opposite is true.
“Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters.”
http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines
[81] - CO2 emissions are related to economic growth, but it is the accumulated concentration level in the atmosphere that warms the climate. Consequently a cut in emissions will only slow the increase in temperature, not reverse it.
You do see a slowdown in the increase in CO2 at the beginning of the 1990’s. This was mostly due to the almost total collapse of industry in the USSR and associated satellite states, rather than the comparatively mild recession in the West.
However, global temperatures rose at their fastest during the 1990s. This might have been coincidence due to random fluctuations. Or it might also have been partly due to the decrease in sulphate aerosol pollution from the USSR, etc. [I think China has now largely made up that decrease now]
The Aral Sea was destroyed by the ravages of Soviet State Planning, it is rather hard to accept that concern for the environment is the preserve of the left, particularly when the state is in the hands of a mentality which wanted to exceed targets all the time.
89, I think I remarked earlier that Robinson’s clearly a cock.
Considering Conservative ideas (good or bad) about the economy would be fair game (provided the same occurs for Labour). Instead he bangs on about a total non-issue. The Tories were of course meant to implode over Lisbon. Whoops.
Just read the latest blog entries from the BBC’s ‘top’ political journalist:
Europe - ticking time bomb?
The responsibility of borrowing
Agenda Pressure
Duelling gentlemen
The Corfu Story
Cameron’s economic problem
The truce is over
It’s the real economy, stupid
I said it before
The rebirth of Gordon Brown?
More demands expected
At least Gordon’s smiling
So, Brown’s smiling, been reborn and borrowing responsibly. Meanwhile Cameron has economic problems, a Shadow Chancellor who has shamefully obeyed funding law and faces the possible destruction of his party over Europe.
96. bit harsh to hold “the left” responsible for disasters of soviet state planning. much as it would be harsh to hold the modern Con party (who have some green policies now) to account for the loony anti-environment views of people on here.
[86] - Well, that would be a shame. It looks as though Labour will get a right royal kicking at the next election, and if a “Green” manifesto were to be incorrectly and conveniently picked as the fall guy, it would be pretty bad.
It’s a bit late for Labour to propose policies. They could start with actually doing something. The ground they need to fight on is hypothecation. They should spend money raised from green taxes on green investment. Taxes raised from motoring should be used to help provide a green alternative, not just as a punitive measure as currently.
The Tories, and the Lib Dems, want to give the money back as tax cuts, but that will only undermine the tax base and leave the government dependent on pollution to continue in order to fund the NHS, etc.
95-Wasn’t this compounded by the (random, non-human created) explosion of the Pinatubo volcano in 1991 (?)?
97 Why do you think he was called Red Robbo in the YCs?
101, because they were terribly polite and didn’t use swearwords?
Actually Churchill’s periods in office (’40-’45 and ‘51-’55)work quite well.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/monthly.png
Other periods don’t, but hey no theory is perfect. Apart from yours of course.
92 Labour can put what they like on green policies in their next manifesto (probably copied from Conservatives and Lib Dem proposals) - its very unlikely they will be in a position to implement any, unless the Conservative Party really goes all out to lose (not beyond them but unlikely).
Expect the Heathrow decision will become no third runway and a high speed North-South rail link (from Tory policy) or a fudge which allows further Heathrow expansion and a North South rail link.
On stealing policies - Mr Darling is reportedly toying with giving the Audit Office responsibility for auditing Government Debt levels - strangely like the Conservative Office of Budget Responsibility.
[91] - You admit to knowing nothing about it. You could take the time to read through the summary for policymakers of the IPCC report, to get an idea of the wealth of evidence and data available. Linked from http://www.ipcc.ch
BBC Breaking News:
Watchdog rules out Osborne probe.
Shadow chancellor George Osborne will not be investigated by the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner.
The commissioner’s spokeswoman said: “The commissioner has received a complaint that has not been accepted.” She refused to say who had made the complaint to John Lyon, who has held the post since January.
The Electoral Commission has already said it will not investigate Mr Osborne.
During prime minister’s questions last week, Gordon Brown said: “This is a very serious matter indeed and I hope it is investigated by the authorities.”
However, the Electoral Commission said it would not launch an inquiry, as “soliciting a donation is not an offence”.
So that’s been sorted in less than a week.
BUT
Scotland Yard reported that detectives investigating Abrahams’ “disguised” donations to the Labour party, described by the Prime Minister as illegal, handed their main file of evidence to the Crown Prosecution Service, Scotland Yard reported on 26 June 2008.
The case had been referred to the police by the Electoral Commission almost seven months earlier, on 29th November 2007. A decision will now be taken as to whether there is sufficient evidence to charge anyone.
So that one has taken 11 months so far - and we’re still counting.
Timothy Zebras: “Also, I suspect that your point is actually false, since temperatures most likely declined during the long years of Tory rule under Churchill, etc, in the 1950s. As usual with most people trying to be smugly superior and clever about the issue, you haven’t actually bothered to check the facts.”
You certainly describe yourself quite well there, Timothy. Not only are you smugly superior, and clever about the issue, you haven’t actually bothered to check the facts.
Global temperatures ROSE during the “long years of Tory rule under Churchill etc in the 1950s”:
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2006/2006_warm.html
Surely the only sensible solution that a politician would offer to global warming would be to recalibrate the temperature scale?
87- Yes, indeed. Many of the local Democratic elected officials, including state House and Senate members, are ideologically in line with the national GOP and out of step with the national Democratic Party. In fact, the Speaker of the House in Louisiana is a Republican even though the Democrats have a majority.
[100] - Yes, absolutely right, you get the strongest trend over a decade if you start from the cool, volcano-affected year of 1992, to 2001. See:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/news/warming_goes_on.pdf
I think it’s still the case that the 1990’s [eg 1990-1999] sees greater warming than other decades, and this is at least partly because of the big El-Nino year in 1998.
106 Not surprising, Mirthios. Any fool could see there was nothing to investigate in the Osborne ‘who-said-what-on-a-yacht’ non-scandal about a non-donation.
It takes much longer to investigate whether there is a strong enough case to consider criminal charges regarding an allegedly disguised real donation.
108, actually, we could solve it overnight. All we’d have to do is massacre the bovine race.
More seriously, as well as protecting rainforest we should work on expanding woodland. It’d provide employment, lock up carbon and encourage wildlife.
21 Richard
Intrade was remarkably accurate last time but be careful; it’s volatile.
Anomolies exist between markets for all sorts of reasons. Intrade is $ denominated, which introduces an exchange risk and it requires high margin levels, so there’s the interest/opportunity cost factor to take into account.
There’s also the question of personal preference. I rarely use Intrade because I like to bet in ways that are familiar to me. I like to keep things simple. In the past, I have lost money by trying to be too clever. What works in theory isn’t always so easy to pull off in practice, as I’ve learnt to my cost on more than one occasion!
[107] - You’ll note that I used the word “suspect” because I knew that I hadn’t checked the detail, any idea that the climate would be linked to politics on such short timescales being absurd, and only mere coincidence, so it was not worth checking in any case.
O/T - Anyone who has a thing for odd quirks of politics need look no further than Ohio’s 11th Congressional District which will hold a special election on 18th November for someone to serve out the remainder of the term until January! Bear in mind that they will also be holding a vote next Tuesday for the period after January!
The greens are just marxists anyway.
How can you pretend to care about the country’s environment but advocate completely unrestricted immigration?
The green party actively supports policies that will inevitably result in the destruction of the countryside.
The only party with proper green policies is the BNP
How about a thread on how the credit crunch will affect support for the BNP
104. out of interest, does anyone else think that Con policy on transport seems strangely out of step with what you might expect from that party?
116. The recession will no doubt mean a rise in support for the BNP - mostly at the expense of Labour in their hearlands.
109 So, do the Democrats at national level try to discipline them for this, or are parties at State level actually independent entities, as they are in Canada?
Are there Republicans elected at local level, who identify with the Democrats at national level?
[112] - In a small way the Woodland Trust is starting to do that. I’m not sure what their long-term plan is for management of the forest in terms of selective logging, but it’s an interesting start, in this country at least:
http://www.woodland-trust.org.uk/whatsnew/pressfirst.asp?aid=1542§ion=
116, dare I guess that you’re a BNP supporter?
Last local elections we got some stuff from them. It was actually excellent, far better than the dross from the other national and local parties.
Interesting result in Stoke.
114. In other words, as with most people trying to be smugly superior and clever about the issue, you had’t actually bothered to check the facts.
Any fool knows building houses on flood plains is neither Green nore clever.
Any fool knows adding more aircraft to teh skies adds more pollution: noise and CO2.
Guess which political party supports both?
Any fool knows building new houses in Green belt areas is neither good for the land nor good due to the increase in road traffic.
Guess which Party supported building eco towns on Green Belt?
Any fool knows fighying wars is the least green thing one can do.
Which two politicla parties support both the wars we are fighing?
Any fool knows that deplted uranium is dangerous. Guess which two political parties supported using it in our naval and land ammunition? (I know it is changing but..)
Lots of hypocrisy.
89 Steve Garner and 97 Morris Dancer. That Nick Robinson article is absolute twaddle by the infamous Michael Fish of forecasting. He omits to mention that the eurosceptic UKIP is going to be reduced to 4 or fewer MEPs. This is mainly due to the recovery of the Conservatives amongst eurosceptics but also because of the splits and factions within UKIP and the UKIP Leadership’s Brussels detachment from its grassroots.
[116] - Most environmental problems do not respect borders. This is why so many nuclear power stations are built near international borders [apart from the ones on coastlines]. Consequently it does not really matter that much which side of a border someone lives on, but what they do wherever they happen to be.
96- The left isn’t inherently green, but the Greens are inherently left. That is because the Greens believe, probably accurately, that haranguing people to live “green” is much less effective than forcing them to act correctly through compulsion by government. It is only natural, then, that Greens prefer the big government model of the left as a means to force people to live in the manner required by their world view.
121 Some BNP literature is indeed excellent. But their candidates mostly aren’t.
124, hehe, the Fish comment reminds me of when he forecast Brown was alright, and then the backbenchers and a Minister of State called for him to go.
The bloke’s a propagandist, and not a very good one.
75. Hated DC itself, although I didn’t get as far as Georgetown, which I heard is very pleasant. Found it way too hot in the summer and kinda humid. Liked Alexandria, although those guys really need to make more of their waterfront, which could be splendid, but isn’t.
121, I would class myself as a slightly wary BNP supporter
I understand that there may be an unpleasant underbelly but am in agreement with their policies to a far greater extent than any of the other mainstream parties who I feel are facillitating ethno/national suicide.
122. Whereas I checked RSS, UAH, GISS and HADCrut3 in my ignorance.
Green propaganda has been a useful way of justifying a) tax rises and b) a shift toward energy independence which is in my view entirely justified given the geopolitical situation - the developed world cannot continue to be in hock to madcap regimes in oil-producing parts of the world.
I think it’s safe to say that in the current environment, goal a) is in serious trouble (and rightly so) but goal b) will likely have more traction given its strategic importance, but may have to be sold differently (perhaps more honestly)
If David Cameron and the Conservatives want to focus on policies to lead the UK out of the recession, perhaps he could take a leaf out of both Obama’s, and to a lesser extent McCains, campaign and lead with plans for a ‘Keynsian’ Government funded Green Technology ‘Space Race’
The benefits are huge, and strategic, and could develop a hi-tech Green Collar sector. Plus it chimes with the Tories green agenda, and offers more than Browns recycling of old ‘initiatives’ like the recent lame Loft Lagging scheme
125. agreed, the environment would probably benefit from people gradually becoming more evenly spread around the world i guess?
the BNP should stick to winning policies:
* natty uniforms
* trains running on time
130, a further set of elections back they sent some stuff about gypsies (we sometimes have problems with them). Completely agreed with it, but the underbelly you refer to makes it highly unlikely I’d vote for them.
However, you’re entirely right that the mainstream parties need to stop dicking about with multi-culturalism and start speaking up for the UK and Britishness (and not pretending to then banishing Britannia and trampling over British liberties).
126 S & S, did you spot my question at 119?
133.
Gordon Brown has already outsourced our space race to India.
Jan 2008 : Brown announces £825M India aid package
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7198546.stm
Oct 2008 : India lauches moon rocket
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/22/india-moon-space-mission
Obviously this was neither good for our economy or the environment.
134, the only thing the enviroment will benefit from in the long term is less people on the planet.
Unfortunately the result of our aid programs, apart from Indian moonshots, is more people.
The poulation of ethiopea has doubled since live aid.
Might have been posted but major outlier alert:
http://www.politicshome.com/pollster.aspx?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.pollster.com%2fblogs%2fus_obama_52_mccain_38_pew10232.php
Obama leads 52/38. I kid thee not.
124. I think there’s a decent chance UKIP will be wiped out altogether, with the bulk of their vote switching to the Tories and the BNP. I certainly think the BNP will end up with more MEPs than UKIP.
139, what would that translate to in EC terms?
119- The state parties are largely independent of the national parties so the Democrats at the national level would be foolish to try to discipline Louisiana Democrats at the state level for operating differently. I think the national Democrats just consider themselves lucky that they have any influence or power in these Deep South states and accept a sort of uneasy alliance with the state parties that often requires accommodation or turning a blind eye on the part of the national party. On both a Constitutional and gut level, it would also be inadvisable for the national party to attempt to meddle too overtly in state level politics.
“Are there Republicans elected at local level, who identify with the Democrats at national level?”
I’m not sure if you’re talking about just Louisiana or all states here. In Louisiana, it doesn’t work that way. The state is ideologically fairly conservative, so the partisan cross-over from state to national politics only really works in one direction.
This phenomenon does not tend to work in the other direction in other states, either. I can’t really offer you even one example of a state that is dominated by the GOP at the state level but where those Republicans cross over to support Democrats at the national level. This is likely a function of the fact that state Republican parties do not tend to be substantially to the left of the national Republican Party. It is only in cases like Louisiana where the state Democratic Party is well to the right of the national Democratic Party that you see this phenomenon.
113 PtP Yes, I was using Intrade mainly as an example. (Arbitrage is attractive, and you can cover yourself with a value-at-risk model like the big banks do with derivatives. Wait, on second thoughts…)
But my main point was that the SPIN spread looks out of line. Not only with Intrade, but also with Ladbrokes (if I’ve done my sums right, their odds imply a probability of 58% that Obama gets > 350), and with Betfair (current best price 1.43 for 351 or over, i.e. approx 70%).
On this basis, I’m keeping my SPIN Obama buy position open, but maybe I’ve missed something.
141 - If Obama is 14 points ahead then he will probably have as many ECV’s as Reagan!
[138] - If you keep people poor they will have more babies so that they will have family to look after them when they are older. If you make them rich, particularly the women, then they won’t feel the need to have children as an economic safety belt and population growth will halt, and then reverse - as is happening in the developed countries.
What we are doing at the moment is not good. We are keeping them poor, but we’re too squeamish to let their babies die and thus the population is exploding. I don’t think the best response is to withdraw aid and watch all the babies die. I think we need to help them become rich enough to not want so many babies. And to use condoms, etc, to fulfil that wish.
It’s a bad day when the BNP have arrived on pb.com.
Just a random point on green energy sources.
The cost of electricity generated by thin film solar (like that from First Solar) is less than $1/watt. This means that your installed cost per kilowatt/hour could be less than $0.18/c assuming 8% cost of capital, and typical American solar irradiation.
For places like Nevada where maximum solar irradiation matches maximum electricity demand, this makes a lot of sense. Peaking power in America and the UK is often above $0.25.
These numbers are before any subsidy, and before any carbon pricing. Obviously lower gas prices (gas is peaking power in the US) and higher costs of capital (credit crunch) affect the numbers somewhat. But it is misleading to suggest that solar power is - in all circumstances - uneconomic. Indeed, having met the managements of two of America’s largest public utilities (Exelon and Dominion Resources) in the last couple of months, I’ve been very surprised how receptive American utilities are to the concept of solar.
As an aside, in California, the marginal cost of electricity to consumers can top $0.50. There even rooftop solar can make sense.
As a second aside; remember, this might not be about global warming. It might be about energy security. Better to import calorific energy from the sun than from Chavez’s Venezuela or al Quaeda’s Saudi Arabia.
Maybe this is the time for more economic cars, hybrid, all electric cars to increase market share.
If governments want to try to buy their way out of recession by generating more jobs, this is the time to build wind farms, hydro-electric etc.
146 - They have been here but haven’t seen Emily in a while!
146. Like ‘em or lump ‘em they will be a factor in the 09 and 10 elections.
146, you should be pleased of the opportunity to defeat their arguments, unless of course you fear they are actually telling the truth.
142 So trying to keep both the State party happy, and the national party happy, must be quite tricky for those Democrats who get elected to the US House of Representatives and Senate from Southern states?
146, ignoring the fact that lots of non-racist people who feel utterly let down by the mainstream parties and are therefore tempted to vote BNP won’t do the body politic any good.
I don’t like the BNP, but they’ll only be defeated and relegated back into obscurity once the bigger parties listen to the needs and engage with more people. The gypsy example is a good one. I want a party that will come down on the bastards like a ton of bricks. There’s been robbery, a stabbing, and when they camped on a local field there was human excrement left behind after they buggered off. It’s absolutely despicable.
153. Most of them aren’t really gypsies, of course. They just use that label to get sympathy from idiotic lefties and handouts from the taxpayer.
anyone interested in: the environment, overpopulation, depletion of natural resources and an economic system that requires continuous growth should watch this series of short videos.
It ties all the issues together in a very well thought out way.
+ I promise it’s nothing to do with the BNP
154, aye, I do recall being told that proper gypsies are actually fine people, but the other sort, the travellers, are the scum of the earth.
145 - Nearly all of the places with the greatest overpopulation are in the developed world. Indeed, Britain is one of the most densely populated large countries in the world. If every country reaches (or retains) Britain’s level of population density, we really would be doomed as a planet. We cannot simply help people become rich enough so that they do not want so many babies - we need to work on other ways of controlling population also.
151 The arguments of the far right have been defeated time and time again. I can’t think of a bigger waste of time than arguing about them here. Rest assured they will be exposed and defeated on the door step.
155, ooops here’s the link
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crash-course/chapter-1-three-beliefs
[131] - But you didn’t check whether the British government is able to determine world greenhouse gas levels… The following shows the per capita responsibility at 2000 for different countries. Because of Amazon rainforest deforestation, Britain ranks equal with Brazil on a per capita basis.. Thus any supposed correlation is a mere coincidence.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:GHG_per_capita_2000.svg
146. Why? We live in a democracy. The BNP are not a proscribed organisation.
If they and their policies are so hateful then its best they are revealed as such in arenas like this. Moreover, if we let them speak, we may discover why their party is surging in popularity, and the mainstream politicians might actually learn something useful.
Hoping they will go away and shut up just because you don’t like them is NOT democracy.
152- Exactly. The most endangered House and Senate Democrats over the past few decades, and even this year, tend to be those representing predominantly white southern state districts. And it is no coincidence that the only Senate Democrat who was discussed this year as possibly endangered was Landrieu of Louisiana. They must somehow walk the tightrope of largely supporting the national Democratic Party and its agenda and leadership while also insisting back home that they’re really more like the state-level Democrats that are much more popular back home. The old-style southern conservative congressional Democrats who unreservedly stood up to their party at the national level can only be found in the history books, however.
151, I will expect no replies to my posts from you then.
Not that I accept your label of “far right” that’s just an attempt to frighten people and shut down the debate
147. Robert. I agree that some forms of solar are actually quite cheap and reliable in certain places - deserts. If we had reliable high temperature superconductors* to minimise losses we could even consider importing such power from North Africa to Southern Europe. I also understand that wave power in tidal bores can be made quite competitive under the right conditions. But wind and solar are marginal in the UK and treating them as anything other than this is silly. As something of a science dreamer, I still hope for the nirvana of fusion, a technology that has been 30 years away for the past 30 years…
* HTS are something that would do a great deal by itself to reduce energy demand.
158. Not by Labour, though, who instead prefer to borrow their rhetoric and ape their visual propaganda.
157-How does that equate with the Green party’s call for unrestrcited immigration? [Did they really call for this? Don't follow extremsit fringe organizations....]
The BNP won 37 council seats in May (+10). For reference the Greens won 47(+5).
Seems to contradict your post no ?
142. what about places like CA? schwarzenegger isn’t very republican is he?
CNN reporting
“Troops’ votes disqualified?
Technical glitches could disqualify up to half the ballots from troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. CNN’s Carol Costello reports”.
Nothing going right for McCain, I am beginning to feel sorry for him, he surely does not deserve what he is getting. Bush yes but not McCain.
•
166 - I am not an aficionado of either the Greens or the BNP. However, to give a stab to your question, unrestricted immigration isn’t a problem if the total number of people worldwide doesn’t increase as a result.
153. i think that is being a bit naive, the main parties are well aware that there are racist votes to be had, and they do play to it on occasions.
this effect is far more significant than the non-racist BNP voters you speak of.
153, 154. I’m not sure “real” gypsies are any better or worse than travellers (who are traditionally Irish, I think?).
If you go to Eastern European countries Roma are subject to pretty nasty racism. But Roma in those countries are also responsible for LOTS of crime, which is why they are hated. And so the cycle continues.
The huge influx of Romanian gypsies into Italy is also causing a lot of problems with crime and antisociality: that’s one reason for the recent rise of the Far Right in Rome.
168 He would be on the left of the Republican party, but I imagine would still support a Republican Presidential candidate. His position doesn’t seem as anomalous as that which S & S has described in Louisiana, or the rest of the South.
143 Yes, right in theory, Richard, but here’s a cautionary tale.
I once set up an arb like that and it should have won me £50 but when the bet was settled I found that one half had not in fact been taken - and of course it was the ‘wrong’ half and I was £500 out of pocket.
I finished up taking it to FSA and finished up with a ‘justice of Solomon’ decision so I only lost £250 in the end, but it serves to show how the best laid plans….
These days I tend to keep it simple.
166- If it’s anything like the U.S., you have the fact that most Greens are general supporters of the larger “left.” The Sierra Club (an environmentalist group) in the U.S. had a huge internal debate over whether they support unrestricted immigration, are opposed to it, or would simply take no view. Of course, the logically consistent argument for American Greens would be to resist the forces of overpopulation in America, which could reasonably be expected to lead to greater environmental degradation. However, the fact that most of these people were also supporters of the Democrats caused their partisanship to trump their environmental concerns, so they decided that they in fact oppose immigration controls in the U.S.
164. i don’t think the conductors are the problem, just the politics.
in reality a development project like this could be win-win for us and some poor african countries, but politics and vested business interests are very much against it.
172. I’m not sure how relevant the East European situation is to that in the UK, though.
161 Do we really need to spend time on working why right wing nationalist parties can be popular? There is quite a lot of history/evidence already on how they become popular and why they are bad news if it goes too far.
They deal in black and white rather than in shades of grey. When times are changing they have an appeal to some. There is not that much more to it.
You deal with it by making mainstream politics easier to understand, giving people more security and undermining their scapegoatism.
173- Schwartzenegger is a centrist, and in fact on the left on some issues, but the manner in which he is giving California Democrats fits by opposing their spending largesse certainly distinguishes him from the Democrats as well. But he is, after all, just one person. There are always examples of individuals who support “the other party” at the national level. I was describing the phenomenon of an entire party at the state level being quite different ideologically than the same party at the national level.
And, as Sean mentions, I don’t believe Schwartzenegger is supporting Democrats at the national level either.
The state Republican party in California is definitely not friendly toward the national Democrats and is pretty well in step with the national GOP.
169.
“Bush yes but not McCain.”
You been browsing Dubbyas4obama.com again?
Q. Would Huckabee (or Romney) be doing any worse than McCain ?
179.
“I don’t believe Schwartzenegger is supporting Democrats at the national level either.”
just be NOT finding time to appear on a platform with Sarah Palin he is doing all that is neccessary for Mr Obama.
181 Nice what if.. Also would Clinton be doing better or worse?
183. Clinton v McCain would be much closer.
177. I was just pointing out that there is a comfy myth that “real gypsies” are lovely salt-of-the-earth characters with their lucky white heather and colourful horse-drawn caravans, and all the criminal and antisocial problems come from fake gypsies, aka “travellers”.
Judging by the experience of other countries, this is bollocks.
“schwarzenegger isn’t very republican is he?”
Might be because when he (initially) tried governing as a wingnut, all his proposals got voted down by Californians.
185 On the basis of my experiences in this country, particularly growing up in Hackney, SeanT, I’d have to qualify that. Utter bollocks would be closer.
178- Ironically, your description of the best manner in which to marginalize parties like the BNP seems logically to include the step of actually addressing their concerns, like excessive immigration (particularly unskilled immigrants). That step would at least be consistent with the “giving people more security” strategy.
It is unfortunate that some of the more legitimate concerns of people who are driven to support parties like the BNP are ignored, or even mocked, by virtue of those issues being identified with such parties. This creates a dangerous cycle both feeding the rise of such parties as well as worsening of the problems that fuelled the rise of those groups in the first place.
“Bush yes but not McCain.”
On the basis of his voting record, McCain deserves 95% of it.
some members of my family voted BNP. And why not? They are a legal party. Mainstream political parties see them as a threat and not addressing the concerns of real people. I wouldnt vote for them myself. But they address matters head on which other parties tiptoe around, which is why they attract some voters.
[181] - I think so. I think McCain was the best hope for the Republicans, because he was as different from Bush as they could get, but I think McCain trashed his own brand somewhat.
McCain would have run Clinton very close. He would have been able to lay claim to the change mantle, and might have pulled off a remarkable victory.
146 To the best of my knowledge it is not illegal to represent the views of the BNP here or indeed anywhere in this country.
If a BNP poster is prepared to put his or her case here in a civilised and reasoned fashion, shouldn’t we appreciate their participation?
And if they could throw in the odd betting tip…
178 All political knowledge is useful. I’ve no objection to a BNP supporter here, so long as that person is polite towards other posters.
179 Going back to my Canadian analogy, there is nothing unusual there about Provincial parties having different allegiances to the national party. There, they are completely independent of each other, I believe (apart from the New Democrats).
In British Columbia, for example, the Liberals are the right wing party, and the Conservatives (and before them, Reform) don’t contest elections at Provincial level, but rather vote Liberal. In Newfoundland, on the other hand, the ruling Progressive Conservatives have nothing to do with the Conservative Party at national level, and are generally a centre left party.
185. Certainly we shouldn’t romanticise the ‘gypsy lifestyle’ - there has always been a large proportion of wrong ‘uns among genuine gypsies as well.
But I get very annoyed (as do many gypsies) with large numbers of layabouts and criminals claiming gypsy status as a means to extort tax money from ordinary people and as a means of circumventing the law.
“In British Columbia, for example, the Liberals are the right wing party, and the Conservatives (and before them, Reform) don’t contest elections at Provincial level, but rather vote Liberal.”
I forgot to add that in Federal elections, BC votes heavily Conservative (and before that, Reform).
185 - I have experience of “real gypsies” in both rural Cambridgeshire and eastern Europe. I’m not sure that the two groups have very much in common.
Not that I disagree with your conclusion, even if derived by a flawed route.
178. That’s feeble and complacent. You ignore the fact that some BNP policies are very popular - and perfectly valid - but have been utterly eschewed by an out-of-touch liberal elite. Giving the BNP room to grow.
Capital punishment is the classic example. A very large minority, possibly a majority of the populace, supports the death penalty. Yet none of the mainstream parties will even discuss the idea.
In this example, the BNP is the only party promising to do what the people want: i.e. restore the death penalty. They are arguably MORE democratic than the mainstream parties.
197. David Davis stands up for it
[192] - That was certainly Trotsky’s viewpoint. Bear in mind that in “real-life”, as opposed to the internet, many BNP types take to beating up people who disagree with them.
193- I know about the current situations in B.C. and Newfoundland, but not their histories. I tried once to look for information on the evolution of the peculiar situation in B.C. and didn’t find much. B.C. seems to have only two real parties, the Liberals and the New Democrats, with the Liberals being an amalgamation of national Liberals and Conservatives (how the heck did that happen?!).
But in Newfoundland, I thought that there had been a cordial working relationship between provincial and national Conservative parties until a big blowup between Harper and Newfoundland Premier Williams over non-renewable resource royalties. Clearly, Williams hates Harper on a personal level. Does the schism between the state and national parties/groupings go back much further? If so, that is not how it’s portrayed in the mainstream Canadian media.
105…nobody with a brain reads the rubbish produced by the IPCC. it is akin to giving the EU annual accounts a clean bill of health.
199. Radical greens and communists also favour using violence against people and property to further their aims, don’t they?
199 I didn’t know Trotsky was a betting man.
139 That’s outlandish.
We now have very good guides from the votes already registered in both Florida and Ohio which would suggest a 5/6% lead for Obama nationally. Pew is a massive outlier.
What I think I do detect is resistance in The Old South - North Carolina and Missouri seem to be swaying back to the GOP and Obama appears to be making little impression in Georgia.
Otoh, some Midwestern States are showing big shifts to the Democrats. Looks like Arizona, Montana, North and South Dakota could be close on very large swings.
O/T - US Consumer Confidence massively below expectations!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7695734.stm
Will it have a bearing one week hence?
188, For once I actually agree with Stars and Stripes. The left should be very careful to avoid vilifying those who have been driven or duped into vote for the BNP, even as we rightly condemn the party themselves.
199, I wish all the people who claim the BNP are an ordinary legitimate party could spend a few hours in my shoes on polling day. In twelve years of being politically active, only one party’s activists have physically threatened me (in three separate places, as far apart as Essex and the West Midlands). Only one party’s candidates have I seen actually try to provoke a fight with the opposition. Only one party’s candidates have I heard condemn all (all, not extremists, but all) Muslims as being out to kill and enslave non-believers.
I deal with members of other political parties day in, day out. Only when the BNP are around does physical intimidation become an issue. This is not coincidence.
199-The ANL is not averse to causing mayhem and destruction either, yet they are somehow myhtologised.
Ditto the Anti-Poll Tax Alliance.
200-There used to be a powerful rightist Social Credit party in BC but they seem to have disappeared c1980.
76/72. Dynasaurs in the Jurasic were also responsible for global warming, in fact there was hardly an Icecap at the poles. Lol
197
Are the people always right?
‘The people’ elected the bastard Blair and his shower three times.
Malcolm
197 Well if you think debating the BNP’s policies ad nauseam will really improve this site then that is something we will have to disagree about. I’d prefer to hear more about what the real popular parties have to say. Sorry if that’s a bore for you.
208. ……and as for the Cretacous. Wow!
211 JackW should tell about what it was like back then.
Ken: was advocating solar in the Southern US, not in the UK. Would be absurd - at current prices - to have solar in the UK.
190.
“BNP. … are a legal party. .. they address matters head on which other parties tiptoe around, which is why they attract some voters.”
..in the same way that Adolf and Benito (their heroes which they try to pretend they arte not like) did.
199 Beating up people is illegal, Timothy, and such types should be locked up, BNP or whatever.
What on earth makes you think it is especially BNP types who beat up those who don’t agree with them? Have you never attended a football match at Upton Park?
200 Perhaps I’ve misunderstood the position in Newfoundland, and it may just be a personality clash. I do know that the Progressive Conservatives there are a completely separate entity to the Conservative Party and I thought they stood well to the Left of it. Jack Peterson will probably have a better idea than I have.
BC is odd. Prior to c. 1950, the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives did fight elections in the Province, against each other. They were then worried about the emergence of a new centre left party (Commonwealth Labour, IIRC). So they started fielding joint slates of candidates, but then were overhauled by, and eventually absorbed by, a new party, Social Credit, which dominated the Province up till the Nineties. The left wing vote went to the New Democrats.
Then Social Credit imploded, and simply disappeared from the scene in a couple of elections. The New Democrats governed for several years, before in turn being beaten by a revived Liberal Party, whose supporters mainly vote Conservative at Federal level.
[201] - The IPCC reports are written by the best scientists in their fields, with multiple papers published in the journals Nature and Science. The report draws its information from a vast number [at least hundreds] of other scientific papers.
That you will not even read the reports, to judge for yourself is astonishing and contemptible. Science works, and you would do well not to ignore it.
210. No-one is debating their policies ‘ad nauseam’ don’t be so silly.
You seem to be making an issue out purely of the fact that a stray BNP supporter has wandered on to the site today. Had that person been responsible for a series of offensive posts, you might have a point, but that is not the case.
202.
“Radical greens and communists”
Brussel Sprouts of the World unite….
217, see the Chanel 4 prog “The great global warming swindle”? At least one scientist there had grave misgivings about the IPCC.
210 - That remark would have more force were it not posted on a thread about green politics.
For myself, I don’t think that anyone should be excluded from commenting. JohnLoony often puts forward views on North Korea that some might charitably describe as unusual and others might uncharitably describe as sick. I haven’t noticed him being ostracised, and nor should he. It is for the rest of us to show him the error of his ways - or for him to show us the error of ours.
197. Do you think that people look very carefully through parties manifestos and decide which policies they agree and disagree with before they vote? Or do you think they just go on a ‘general feel’?
I go for the latter view. And I think that even if a large number of people wanted the death penalty they would still be put off by the reactionary and authoritarian ‘feel’ of such a party.
I think that’s one of the reasons 42 days and ID cards (issues where the majority agrees with the government) haven’t really helped the Labour party.
But none of this is important, because non-voting intention polls are meaningless as they don’t weight for certainty to vote or party identification. I.e. A large number of people who support the death penalty won’t vote and a large number of people will blindly support one party irrespective of it’s policies.
210. Pompous knobhead.
202. http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/oct/28/animalwelfare-oxforduniversity
[I'd just like to highlight the fact that this is yet another incident of a non-muslim terrorist.]
[202] - That’s quite a wide and sweeping statement about what can be very interesting discussions.
Many Greens, and other radicals, in direct action protest movements advocate the use of non-violent direct action. They make a very clear distinction between damage to property and violence against people. A distinction that the police and the law often don’t make.
There is a second current of thought that holds that people have to be prepared to use some violence in self-defence, because the state will use violence against them. They will point to the way in which State authorities will often disregard the law and attack non-violent protests in order to protect the interests of Property. [The attack on the school in Genoa at the G8 protests is one of the more high-profile and blatant examples of this].
The first group will point to the superiority of the equipment and training that the police have for such violent confrontations, and argue to the second group that the state will always be victorious in such a confrontation. The only way to avoid such a confrontation is by having overwhelming numbers on your side.
They will also argue that the very act of using violence against people, even in self-defence, is inimical to their aims, and so must be rejected.
It’s not really comparable to the BNP.
208. and 211. Surely you have heard of tory dinosaurs.
222 — If the majority approves of Labour’s ID card scheme it’s only because they haven’t experienced the hassle and expense, and few benefits, it will entail.
224 — People doubt there are non-Muslim terrorists?!
I think all the carbon stuff will go by the wayside but the green version of thrift and make do and mend will still have political legs.
[220] - That programme was also exposed as having used out-of-date data, ending timeseries in the early 90s [because the more recent data disagreed with their point of view] and wilfully misrepresenting their opponents views. It’s a very flimsy basis to use to attack the IPCC.
225. Are the ALF “left wing” ? They look and smell like they are and have that “envy” streak and the compulsary chip on shoulder.
225 - In what way is it not comparable? They seek to justify the violence before they go out and commit it? Or they decide not to commit it because they worry that it might not be effective? It sounds wholly comparable to the BNP to me.
O/T - TOTE TEN TO FOLLOW COMPETITION
Thanks to all those who have responded. The take up has been been very strong and we are now 75% subscribed so if you are still interested but haven’t yet emailed me, you’d better be quick.
Usual email address…. arklebar@talktalk.net
More public shows of unity in the McCain-Palin camp
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/palin-a-whack-job-top-mcc_n_138523.html
re 231.
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/news/restaurant-takes-foie-gras-off-menu-after-terrifying-threats-784408.html
231. I imagine they aren’t interested in party politics or political philosophy. Does it matter?
231 I doubt if the ALF can easily be fitted into any political category, as they are entirely misanthropic.
The Hunt Saboteurs are more obviously left wing.
225-Presumably disinterring corpses counts as an attack on property? Or perhaps being involved in animal research absolves the attackers of blame.
As for the 2001 Genoa riots, I don’t think you can class them as peaceful. Actually, you will not be shocked to know I found some of the actions of the Italian police hilarious. I chuckle at the thought of these long haired spoilt middle class “radicals” blubbing to daddy to come and pick them up in their Jags. I remember reading an article in the Grauniad about this I found so amusing I sent it to my friends, to general myrth.
[215] - The use of violence in crowds watching sports is not relevant to a point that the BNP use violence to try to intimidate people who disagree with them.
The ANL argue that this is justification for not allowing the BNP/fascists to organise, and pre-emptively disrupting them.
Perhaps the police should protect people from fascist violence more vigorously in the first place?
221- You’ve said it well. If only your view were the predominant view in the world at large, we might be in a position to enjoy the benefits of democratic representative government in the way it was meant to be enjoyed. Unfortunately, the authoritarian, repressive approach carries more weight than it ought and ultimately prevents people from making properly informed democratic choices in governance.
BNP - it remains the case that the leadership and many of the activists of the BNP are Hitler worshippers who, if they ever obtained power, would have the gas ovens up and running again quicker than you can say “Juden raus”.
239. Timothy, what would you think if a large group of people thought there was justification for using violent means to not allow unions to organise?
227. i bet most people have encountered a situation, this year, where an official id card would have saved them hassle, had they had one.
New Insider Advantage/Politico polls for :
Colorado
McCain 45% .. Obama 53%
Pennsylvania
McCain 42% .. Obama 51%
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15024.html
241 – TonyB, err, the use of the term ‘allegedly’ might come in handy here.
240. Was that in reply to me or to Antifrank?
241. I was under the impression that the BNP kept falling into internal conflict because they were always accusing each other of being part of the global jewish conspiracy.
239-I think we have had this argument several times on this site before.
Because leftism/socialism/communism is noble then its crimes/violence are somehow more acceptable and to be tolerated than those of the evil twins of capitalism and fascism.
[238] - I was at Genoa. I certainly wasn’t going there to have a fight. The police attacked people in their sleep. That’s hardly hilarious.
217. “The IPCC reports are written by the best scientists in their fields, with multiple papers published in the journals Nature and Science.”
1. “Best” in whose judgement?
2. This site alone should convince you that multiple publications do not guarantee the quality of the content published.
246- I was replying to antifrank. If my numbering is screwed up again, it will only be the millionth time…
243. No.
249. multiple publications in Science and Nature = pretty good scientist.
O/T - As we are talking about Nazi’s, an Austrian Tram driver found himself in trouble…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7695510.stm
245. OK “allegedly” (can you defame someone otherwise than by name?).
243 ed - Only becuase this government (and the EU) have created so much bureaucracy. For example: I’m currenlty using a new firm of solicitors for a minor transaction involving a lease. Absolutely ZERO possibility of money laundering, as so little money changes hands. So why the hell do we have to go through all this nonsense of producing gas bills, etc?
This problem is entirely of the government’s making. The answer is to get rid of this nonsense, not to compound it by introducing ID cards.
239 Some BNP members are violent, but most seem not to be, and those who are violent can be punished in accordance with the law.
Good Gallup for McCain today. Closing the gap by 3 in all configurations. Now 49-47 in the traditional LV modell.
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
243 I seriously doubt that, the less hassle argument doesn’t seem to take into account the day off work you take to be processed for the card or the hassle of the extra cost. Not to mention the potential hassle of identity theft or even merely incorrect readings taken with a supposedly secure infalliable ID card.
Gallup Tracker:
LV Traditional: O 49, M 47 (yesterday 50-45)
LV Expanded: O 51, M 44 (yesterday 53-43)
RV: O 50, M 43 (yesterday 52-42)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111568/Gallup-Daily-Presidential-Race-Narrows-Slightly.aspx
But I do think an awful lot of the “crime” and antisocial behaviour attributed to both genuine ethnic Roma and travellers (who may have ‘traditionally’ been Irish, sean, but are now just as often English, Welsh or Scottish) is based on “so-and-so said this that or the other. And then, because they are different culturally, others believe - and exaggerate - what they hear. Stereotyping, if you like. Certainly, there are schemes around these days to bring together people in settled and travelling communities, and attitudes have shown to moderate. OK, I’m a liberal, and I like to ensure that stereotyping is kept to a minimum (there is quite a lot of it on here!) Let’s judge individuals by their actions - and let’s not condemn people because their cultures are different from ours.
New Strategic Vision polls for :
New Jersey :
McCain 38% .. Obama 53%
Wisconsin
McCain 41% .. Obama 50%
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/strategicvision_nj_wi_102426.php
248-So what did you go there for?
Birng down the state? Bring down capitalism? Help bring about a Pol Pot style Maoist utopia?
[242] - A large enough number of people did think this, to an extent, and in the 80s they let Thatcher use the police to do this, to an extent. I would oppose it, by words as much as possible and by peaceful demonstration. I would be prepared to defend myself and those around me if necessary.
The point is that we all have to make a judgement about what things are worth fighting for. Some people see their country as worth fighting for, and some people their ideals, some people their family, and some just for themselves. Personally, I think that the Unions are much more worth fighting for than the BNP. Luckily, a majority of people generally agree with me, so it is not necessary to have such a fight.
At other points in history this was not the case, and these battles had to be fought and won. Although some battles were sometimes lost, generally the side that I agree with most has done best, for which I am grateful. This was not inevitable.
255 - If anything, having a supposedly-secure national ID database would make that situation worse, as anybody who actually was trying to commit fraud need only get a fake card, which would then be subject to only a cursory inspection. Without the card, the solicitors actually have to think about whether the person is trustworthy or not…
It’s like the ridiculous situation in the US where 50-year-olds get ID-ed in order to buy alcohol – the verification process is reduced to an absurd and irrelevant check that does nothing to reduce crime.
The trackers seem to be converging on a six/seven point lead now, herd safety I suppose, they all go up or down together.
New Indiana Poll
South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV
Indiana
O 48
M 47
Firewall or not? NOrth Carolina maybe, Florida plausibly, Missouri or West Virginia?
252 - “multiple publications in Science and Nature = pretty good scientist”.
I think a little research will show that both Science Magazine and Nature magazine publish thousands of papers a year between them. Publication is - in and of itself - neither an endorsement of the content nor an indication of its accuracy. Your equation does not stand up.
Some more on non-violent protest:
On July 20, a 23-year-old activist Carlo Giuliani of Genoa, was shot dead by Mario Placanica, a Carabinieri officer, during clashes with police. Images show him throwing a fire extinguisher at the carabinieri’s vehicle before he was shot and then run over twice by the Land Rover. Placanica was acquitted from any wrong-doing, as judges determined he fired in self-defence.
And on the other hand - Howey Gage Poll - Indiana
McCain - 47
Obama - 45
255, 258. the anti-ID argument seems to be tied to the complete fallacy that not having ID cards = not having to identify oneself = civil liberty.
the fact is, there are loads of occasions where an individual needs to identify themself. opening a bank account, collecting a parcel, renewing a driving license, being arrested, blah blah blah. this is nothing to do with liberty, it is to do with efficiency.
having an ID card instead of having to provide a passport, birth certificate, driver’s license, gas bill, etc. would be a boon in these circs.
255 specifically, i agree there are plenty of bits of needless bureaucracy around, but to introduce them into the ID cards debate is really to blur the issue. in reality, any _sensible_ system of national ID card would be fairly stringent about when it was actually required, which might well reduce the number of “we’d better check” type controls, and certainly shouldn’t increase it.
for the record i am pretty undecided on the issue overall for various reasons. i don’t like seeing such rubbish arguments being repeated as a sort of mantra, perhaps in the hope that the more it is said, the more it might be accepted?
201.
“nobody with a brain reads the rubbish produced by the IPCC.”
So that’s what ‘nobodies’ with brains read.
Which presumably make Mr Malpas a nobody without a brain? Quite Extraordinary!
267- I despise articles such as this, as it describes Mr. Giuliani as an “activist.” What is an activist?
[262] - I went there to protest against the G8, and the globalisation policies of forcing workers in different countries to compete against each other in a race to the bottom. I went there to protest against controls on people, and for controls on capital.
I wasn’t expecting to be listened to straight away…
Is anyone else on this site as bored with the US election as I am? And to think it will all start up again in 3 years time.
267.
That protest doesn’t appear non-violent. Suggests potential attempted murder or, at the very least, assault with intent to cause GBH with the Fire Extinguisher.
13 I haven’t looked at all posts here, but frankly, if you think green issues unimportant, then either you haven’t been concentrating, are massively biased, or are a fool. I just hope that enough people regard the preservation of a working planet and its ecosystems as vital that we get real action before it is too late. And that Graham Malpas and others of his point of view don’t have to go through the famines, drought, and conflict which will inevitably come without that real action. In this case, practical politics has to be about the future as well as what is happening today. Sorry.
Does anybody know where Philippe Magnan has gone? I hope he isn’t stricken with a major case of pre-election depression, as the post-election period does not promise to be much better for quite a while…
“The president of the National Black Police Association has called for positive discrimination to boost the number of black and Asian officers.”
Can someone please explain why this is not a call for racial discrimination?
266. these are top tier journals and being published there indicates a certain level of quality, including full submission to a robust scientific process of peer review etc., and beating off stiff competition.
that does not mean that every article published is brilliant, or even correct, but consistently getting published is a good indicator of who is leading the field.
most of the garbage that is quoted as science in the climate debate would not stand up to any of the above.
273. Yes.
206 certainly the members of my family who voted BNP became more determined to vote for them, the more the traditional parties went on about how appalling the BNP were. Call it peverse or contrary but people don’t like being told their legitimate choice is not legitimate.
[267] - On the other hand I went with a large group of people, none of whom threw any fire extinguishers at anyone.
The people who were in the school when they were set upon by the police hadn’t attacked anyone either.
I also saw some of the alleged “anarchists” fraternising with the police before the demonstrations started. It’s hardly a new tactic to plant some undercover people to start some violence to have to crack down on. Someone later told me of a farcical incident when such a supposed “anarchist”, who was throwing stones at the police, was confronted by a group of people on the demonstration, and he promptly fled to the safety of the police lines.
260. About ten years ago an impeccably liberal, lefty, almost SWP friend of mine went to live in Olomouc, in Moravia (eastern Czech Republic), with his Moravian fiancee. He was teaching English at the local Uni.
When he first arrived he was utterly scandalised, he told me, by the treatment of the Roma - he found the openly racist attitude of the Czechs, to the local gypsy community, disgusting and repellent.
However, after about a year, he ended up sharing many of these very same Czech attitudes. He told me he couldn’t help it, because “the gypsies simply commit so much crime”.
I went to Olomouc for his wedding with my then girlfriend. We were physically menaced by gypsy children on more than one occasion.
Now, I know this is just anecdotal. I know it is wrong to stereotype. I also know many many gypsies must surely be entirely innocent victims of racism.
But still.
273- The election ceased to be interesting for me around the convention period, from which point it seemed very unlikely that Obama would have any problem winning the election. The congressional elections are even less interesting. I am far more interested in what will be happening in terms of policy over the next six months, since only then will we see exactly what absolute and complete Democratic control of Washington will produce. This promises to be pretty shocking, almost regardless of what they do.
242 Certainly, a fair number of trade unionists in the Seventies and Eighties believed that the use of violence was justified in industrial disputes. Fortunately, they lost in the end.
269 “the anti-ID argument seems to be tied to the complete fallacy that not having ID cards = not having to identify oneself = civil liberty.”
This is a Straw man. I am against ID cards as they are expensive(£20bn), pointless (please say you have a better reason than convenience), fallable (there is plenty of evidence that false readings are common with biometrics), insecure (look at the governments record of data loss) and to answer your straw man
Intrusive (once everyone has to have an ID card it is a very short step to have to carry one to prove your identity).
for the record i am totally decided on the issue overall for various reasons. i don’t like seeing such rubbish arguments as convenience being repeated as a sort of mantra, perhaps in the hope that the more it is said, the more it might be accepted.
269 Your talking nonsense, ed. If there are ID cards, you can be absolutely certain that the number of occasions where you have to produce them multiplies, so that before long you won’t be able to anything without producing it. You gave a particularly good example, collecting a parcel. What kind of state do you want to live in? We are gradually drifting into a situation where all manner of state officials and others will have the right to ask for your ID.
What’s worse, this appalling government is proposing not just to introduce ID cards, but also a national database with masses of intrusive data on it, unprecented in modern non-totalitarian societies. All backed up by criminal sanctions - so it will be an offence to move house without telling the government. This is Britain, for heaven’s sake! A country which until fairly recently was one of the least bureaucratic and most protective of liberty in the world.
Even all that might arguably be acceptable if ID cards were an extremely effective (and cost-effective) way of dramatically cutting crime. But there’s no evidence of that. In fact, the government haven’t even tried to argue that in any serious way - for example, by demonstrating that the billions of pounds they are proposing to spend on this wouldn’t be better spent in other ways, such as improved policing and border controls.
285. it isn’t a straw man, read the posts i was replying to.
you have added some additional general arguments against having any badly-implemented system, rather than against having an id card system specifically. there isn’t anything to disagree with there!
284. It’s remarkable how people on the left find it so easy to justify or explain away violence in pursuit of their ’cause’. All the way from deluded green fascists to the likes of so-called ‘great historians’ who think Stalin’s mass murder was acceptable to build ’socialism’.
The national GOP is starting to make the argument about the dangers of one-party rule, which I predicted they would start making a few weeks before election day. This is of course an attempt to try to sway a few House or Senate seats back their way. Unfortunately for the GOP, nobody will listen to this argument. It is likely that about this time next year, many in the party will be saying “I told you so” to many of the centrists who voted for Obama and the congressional Democrats and who will be saying “but I didn’t know they would do THAT!”
http://features.csmonitor.com/politics/2008/10/27/gop-warns-of-one-party-power/
The argument will be much more effective in the mid-term elections in 2010. In fact, it is likely to be the central theme of those elections from the GOP perspective.
282 It does also show how far apart the communities have grown in that part of Europe. I can only comment on what I have seen on TV / read in newspapers about Roma in Czech Rep and Slovakia, sean. And that, I am sure would be anecdotal also. I think we are relatively lucky that relationships have not generally deteriorated quite that much in UK.
286. are you arguing that, at present, proof of identity is not required to collect a parcel? i beg to differ. that is the kind of state we already live in (and always have).
at present, moving house presents a million different change of address forms that need filling in. forgetting one could cause all sorts of bureaucracy down the line. avoiding doing it deliberately seems quite shady behaviour. that is already the state that we live in.
in effect, all sorts of your details already are on file - spread across loads of different national databases. that is already the state we live in (note that this includes numerous private databases, and has been going on for a lot longer than blaming one government would suggest).
you might not like any of the above. if you think it through you will see that most of it is a necessary evil. but none of it really has anything to do with ID cards.
as for the final argument about cutting crime, i couldn’t agree more - the case has not been effectively made.
287 Ok then, we agree ID cards are a bad idea.
Gerald Warner has a piece on Obama and Odinga.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/gerald_warner/blog/2008/10/28/barack_obamas_most_controversial_connections_are_very_recent
Is this playing much in the States?
291. I picked up a parcel this morning from my village post office and certainly didn’t need to prove my identity. Still once Labour have shut it down, perhaps that will change.
291 ed - You are right that our liberty and freedom from bureaucracy has already been eroded, and not just in the last 11 years, although the deterioration accelerated under Blair. I lived in France in the seventies, and was amazed by the need to keep producing ID (passport and something called ‘livret de famille’, which of course had no equivalent in the UK) and by the difficulty of carrying out simple transactions such as opening a bank account. But now I think we’re probably just as bad.
But that’s not an argument for making it worse, it’s an argument for reversing it.
This thread has everything, Green taxes, BNP, animal rights activists, G8 riots, North Korea and a sprinkle of Gypsy bashing….all set against the backdrop of US elections and global economic meltdown.
It’s why pb.com is the #1 political blog in town.
293- The mainstream media in the U.S. have zero interest in Obama’s ties to anybody unsavory and will condemn the first such utterance as outrageous and shameful, let alone call attention to any such thing.
Re 291 & 286. “Are you arguing that, at present, proof of identity is not required to collect a parcel? ”
Yup. Unless you think the card the postie drops through the door informing you that as you were out when he attempted to deliver that you must collect the parcel at the sorting office is now a ‘form of identity’.
293 - Err, this is the writer who said “Obama is the most left wing politician in American history”.
I’m not kidding, honest. You can read it here.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/10/23/do2306.xml
He’s a madman, living in a fantasy world.
NBC/Mason Dixon Polls
North Carolina
Obama 47, McCain 47 (a good candidate for firewall, all polls are revolving around a tie)
Montana
McCain 48, Obama 44 (edging closer)
New Hampshire
Obama 50, McCain 39
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/28/1600325.aspx
Polls coming in thick and fast -
Suffolk - Nevada
Obama 50
McCain 40
http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/Nevada_Marginals_Oct_27_20081__2_.pdf
299 Plainly, that’s an exaggeration. He’s no more left wing than say, Dukakis, or Mondale, IMHO.
But the substance of the article, from a Conservative point of view, makes some sense.
Insider Advantage - Georgia
McCain 48
Obama 47
Barr 1
http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/restricted/2008/October%202008/10-28-08/Georgia_Poll102819642.php
302. Yes - it does seem that much of the admiration for Obama among a certain sort of Conservative is little more than celebrity adulation. This I think is a good illustration of the damage Blair has wrought upon British political culture.
House Speaker Pelosi says we should be afraid of total Democratic control of Washington with the White House plus huge House and Senate majorities, promising that Washington will thus become more bipartisan.
http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=news/politics&id=6473426
I don’t know what is more embarrassing: that she actually said this or that there are probably people out there who would believe such a thing.
If we look at the only four other periods in modern American history where one party had total unfettered domination in Washington with huge congressional majorities (1933-1947, 1965-1969, 1977-1981, and 1993-1995; and always the Democrats), bipartisanship was largely non-existent since there was no need for it. The only major issue during that time that involved significant bipartisanship was the civil rights legislation of the 1960’s, in which Republicans worked with Democrats to override opposition from southern Democrats like current Senate President Pro Tem Robert Byrd. There’s no reason to expect that the Republicans will be the beneficiaries of any brand of bipartisanship during the next few years, as opposed to being totally ignored.
305- oops, meant to say “should NOT be afraid”!!!
302 - Only if you are a very right wing Conservative, which you openly are.
O/T.
Last burst from the Yoof to sink McCain:
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/precocious_youngster_sells?utm_source=videomrss_89074
299. Pretty sure Eugene Debs wouldn’t be happy to hear that.
277. The person who is calling it is a crook, who should be in jail for perverting the course of justice.
298. try reading the card next time you get one - the instructions are pretty clear! and obviously necessary. you wouldn’t want anyone to be able to collect your parcel any more than you would want your post delivered to the wrong address.
303. If we see some more like that before the weekend we’ll have to put GA in the toss up bracket!
304. The thing is, if you look at american politics, the Conservatives could fit on either Republicans or Democrats, even those considered to be very right wing in the UK, would be considered centrist. Someone like John Redwood, could pass as a right wing Democrat, but would be seen by some Republicans as a leftie.
Of course the irony is, that Bush has probably ran the most ’socialist’ administration since Roosevelt, and as is traditional in such situations involving socialism, we have seen a dreadful record on human rights and freedom.
302 If anything,I would say Obama is more socially conservative than Dukasis,who was openly very liberal (by US standards) in his social views-economically it could be interpeted Dukasis would have been a ‘tax-and-spend Democrat’ (a card GHW Bush played to devestating effect)
Is it not the case that there is no conflict in UK Tories and US Democrats having cordial relations-as I recall,Simon Burns,the Conservative MP for Chelmsford West,as a 20 year-old student in 1972 worked in McGoverns (doomed) Democratic bid that year
302 If anything,I would say Obama is more socially conservative than Dukasis,who was openly very liberal (by US standards) in his social views-economically it could be interpeted Dukasis would have been a ‘tax-and-spend Democrat’ (a card GHW Bush played to devestating effect)
Is it not the case that there is no conflict in UK Tories and US Democrats having cordial relations-as I recall,Simon Burns,the Conservative MP for Chelmsford West,as a 20 year-old student in 1972 worked in McGoverns (doomed) Democratic bid that year
Apologies if this has already been posted, but Our Glorious Leader has chosen to speak out on the BBC/Ross/Brand debacle -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7695951.stm
313.
“Bush has probably ran the most ’socialist’ administration since Roosevelt”
Dishonest Tory twaddle.
re 269 having an ID card instead of having to provide a passport, birth certificate, driver’s license, gas bill, etc. would be a boon in these circs.
Why? I have no problem in collecting parcels, opening bank accounts etc.
316.
“He (Sachs) added that his granddaughter had not heard from either broadcaster and that both men “owe her an apology”. ”
One would hope that once m’learned friends get hold of her case they will each owe her substantially more than that.
“she slept with Rssell Brand” must be wirth an awful lot as a slur - almost as much as “she slept with Boris Johnson/David Blunkett”
Just saw the Dax
Talk about one stock defining a market!
269 - No. It would just mean the queue at the post office would be twice as long.
318. given the objective choice, one unified system is obviously easier and more efficient.
316 On a totally NON-political level,I feel Jonathan Ross and Brand have behaved outrageously towards Andrew Sachs,who after all played ‘Manuel’ in Fawlty Towers,and is one of our most loved comedy treasures.I feel Ross and Brand,for their disgraceful remarks about Sachs 23 year-old granddaughter,should be made to publicly eat a fat slice of humble pie,and apologise profusely on national TV.I feel better for getting that off my chest!
Question - under the wonderful “unified” ID system, what would you do if you wanted someone else to pick up a parcel on your behalf?
316 didnt the great leader make a lot of calls to voters…
“Governments and central banks across the world have bailed out the global financial industry with £4,473,000,000,000 of taxpayers’ money, the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report shows.”
With a world population of 6,733,165,133 (or thereabouts) this amounts to £665 - over $1,000 - for EVERY man, woman and child on the planet.
I can’t afford to pay my share back - can you?
Green politics = bollox
There is no global warming.
There are no global environmental issues.
Its just a con to get you to pay more in the shops and in taxes!
327
now now Ave It 08, just because Watford lost…
328 we havent lost (yet) tonight!
First!
328,Next year Luton Town will see our leaders/opposition politicans-as they’ll be in the Conference
327
“There is no global warming.
There are no global environmental issues.
There is no ‘Ave It’.”
If only!
re 322 one unified system is obviously easier
Why? Instead of just stating these things, please explain.
Every parcel I have to go and collect tells me what I should bring. I have absolutely no problem in taking them to the depot.
316. I do not know anyone who finds Brand funny. A good comedian does not need to resort to rude jokes about sex. I’m no prude, my DVD collection includes Blazing Saddles, Airplane and The Life of Brian, all of which contain a lot of smut but they managed to stay within acceptable limits. Brand is just an egotistical moron.
And in contrast to Brand and Woss’ antics, heres want some genuinely funny people make of it!!
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/celebrity/ross-and-brand-to-dig-up-queen-mother-200810271355/
316.And that becomes the leader on the BBC front page….
Poor Mervyn King didn’t make it last night when it was bad economic news.
335.
“Poor Mervyn King”
Do these words belong in the same sentence?
305. Didn’t the GOP control both houses and the president of the U.S. government between 2000-2006?
326. I really hate bankers, right now.
Seriously, the National news leading with a story about a few celebrities and such is appalling - *this is not news* people *this is not news*. Who the hell decided that it was what people want stuffed down their throats in news bulletins? News editors should be hauled over the coals for pushing this sort of populist celebrity news pap.
Those pushing it to the headlines should be ashamed of themselves when we have much more important things to know about such as the economy and other domestic and foreign difficulties.
As for Brown piling in it just makes me want to start supporting those that he’s attacking, he’s just making it worse. The people complaining, they aren’t complaining about these two, we know that, it’s just the serial anti-BBC complainers. I didn’t really care to start off with but if sides need to be taken then so be it.
Get this crap off the news now, credibility of each news organisation is plummeting as we speak.
Rant over…..
Fraser Nelson at the Coffee House Blog reports on the The debt contagion
“was joking when I said a few weeks ago that Gordon Brown spoke about the recession as if it were the SARS virus. But at his press conference this morning, and just now at the press conference with Sarkozy, he has used a new phrase: “stop the contagion”. Contagion? If it is, it was incubated in 11 Downing Street as he pumped the economy full of debt, in the hope that he’d never be found out and rates would not rise. The contagion kept touting dangerously underpriced debt until the average British household had borrowed 172 per cent of its income - twice as much as even the Italian household. The contagion from No11 also used debt-concealment mechanisms to disguise £110billion of PFI debt and £600 billion of public sector pension liabilities and even international aid. The contagion from No11 pumped up official state debt during the boom so it went from £14,500 per family in 1996/97 and to £24,300 per family now. A contagion of debt, spin, profligacy and mendacity has been spreading from out of Downing St ever since Brown moved in. And how we are all paying for it.”
338 - I think you are wrong (about “serial anti-BBC complainers”).
338. The BBC is running this story merely to publicise the issue in the hope of boosting the ratings of these two idiots, that is how far it has sunk.
337- No. From January 2001 to June of 2001, the GOP had nominal control of a Senate divided 50 to 50 by virtue of Cheney’s tie-breaking vote as President of the Senate. From Jim Jeffords’ party switch in June 2001 until January 2003, the Dems controlled the Senate. From January 2003 to January 2007, the GOP controlled the Senate, but always with threatened Democratic filibusters keeping them in check on certain issues that were particularly important to the Dems, notably including judicial nominations. The GOP never had more than 55 Senate seats during the 2003 to 2007 period, so were never able to completely eliminate the Democrats from the equation in advancing their agenda. Their margins were never more than about a dozen seats in the House, either, so it took only the defection of a dozen or so House caucus members to give them problems in advancing legislation in the House.
The Democrats, on the other hand, will have the White House in 2009, as well as overwhelming House and Senate majorities that will eliminate any Republican influence and any need the Dems might have had to work with them to pass legislation. Things never got this bad for the Dems at any time during the Bush administration or, indeed, during any other Republican administration since the Great Depression.
339.
Agreed. Much as I love the Tory-biased BBC political coverage, I still cannot stomach these two. Ukpaul is wrong that this is not ‘news’. What is ‘news’ is that media whores are so powerful that there is any contemplation of them being allowed to work for a supposedly civilised employer after this sort of behaviour. Their bums shouldn’t touch the ground.
339. A criminal prosecution seems appropriate, in my view.
339 - Maybe they don’t ‘officially’ complain but if they are being prompted by the Daily Mail (maybe why Brown felt that he had to comment?) then they are probably tending towards that anti-BBC mindset anyway.
To tell the truth, orchestrated mass complaints are counter productive. People are much more likely to compromise over a few well placed complaints than if they are being mobbed.
322 ed - “one unified system is obviously easier and more efficient.” Until you lose your card and then can’t do anything at all. A unified system is a single point of failure. Even worse, your card may be impounded and then you’re a non-citizen.
Ed, lots of other countries have been through all this, including the UK during WWII. It is hardly controversial to point out that ID cards lead to an inevitable loss of liberty. Why do you think we got rid of them after WWII?
Luckily, this issue is electorally so toxic, and the cost so prohibitive, that we can be reasonably confident it won’t happen. I expect Labour will drop the policy, unless they are hell-bent on losing the next GE even more badly than they need to. Even if they don’t, they would need a clear majority in the next parliament to force this through - and even Gabble isn’t predicting that.
But “Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty”, so we can’t be complacent about it.
338.”Those pushing it to the headlines should be ashamed of themselves when we have much more important things to know about such as the economy and other domestic and foreign difficulties.”
ukpaul, according to the BBC these days its a downturn rather than a recession, and it would appear that they decide how much bad news the country will be spoonfed.
I mean, look what happens when Osborne and the Tories don’t take a donation. They allowed Peston to run around their tv and radio studio’s speculating about this non story when he should not have been anywhere near it because of an obvious conflict of interest. That and the fact its not his brief, and we pay for enough political commentators in that organisation.
Last night they were still leading with the Osborne news rather than Mervyn King’s comments about the economy. While they have decided that Mandelson is not worthy of anything other than a story about him focussing on the economy right underneath the Osborne headline.
But, now our dear leader has examined the public reaction runes, he now issues a comment that must lead the news.
341. Didn’t Bill Clinton have the house and Senate between 1993 and 1995?
They were not fillibuster proof majorities but still pretty healthy IIRC!
338. it is national news because these men are public employees.
Personally I hope someone sees them in a pub and hurts them.
342 - Anything involving a ‘celebrity’ is not news as far as I’m concerned. Relegate it to the last few minutes if you like but putting it as the major news story of the day is ridiculous.
It’s a classic example of displacement to feed to the masses, read ‘1984′. If they are going to do something to try and make us forget how bad things are then they would be better off giving us something positive.
338. You are so wrong in this ukpaul. How would you like someone ploning you over the radio and taunting you that he slept with your granddaughter? This is the main issue, and people are rightly disgusted.
346 - And of course Mandelson is now a non-story, those who might otherwise complain are being distracted by the ’shiny things’ over in the celebrity corner and, unsurprisisingly, with one bound, the government gets a breather in the news cycle.
Hmm, Djokovic walloped Tursunov 6-2 in the first set, but just got broken in the third game of the second.
347- Yes, he did. Clinton’s Senate majority was 56 to 44, but at that time, filibusters weren’t used to dictate policy on a range of issues such as judicial nominations. They were used, or even threatened, very rarely. That’s why, in 1993-1995, Clinton and the Democrats (who also had a huge House majority) were able to effectively control policy without Republican involvement. Their only real issue was in accommodating some of their southern moderate to conservative senators, which reined in the Democratic agenda a bit. Since those southern moderates and conservatives are no longer in the Senate and are so insignificant in number in the House, even this feeble resistance to the leftward drive will not exist over the next few years. Indeed, we will see a degree of control by the left that probably has no precedent in the U.S., since previous Democratic supermajorities, unlike the one to come, were always tempered by large contingents of southern moderates.
350 - It’s a potential police issue, it is not national news. Mandelson, now there’s something that is national news and those opposing the government, by haring off to push a different, and quite frankly, politically inconsequential story, are doing their work for them.
John Redwood on Channel 4 and the economy
“Yesterday I agreed to go onto Channel 4 7pm news to talk about the economic crisis and the problems with the run away deficit. Late in the afternoon they sounded me out on my views. They probed my thoughts on George Osborne more than on the economy. I told them I would want to move the interview on to the real issues quickly, as there was nothing more to say about George, who had made a good full statement earlier that day.
Shortly afterwards I was told I had been cancelled.
They are becoming like the BBC. They want to run unimportant and non stories, and do not want hard hitting analysis of the real crisis facing our country.”
241. Actually Clinton had the house democrats with 267 seats in the 1992 election and the Senate with 56 seats.
The following election railroaded the democrats out of power the infamous contract with America GOP success!
People said in 1992 that the recession was the worst since the war etc.
The Gop got 230, majority of 26 over the Democrats and the GOP got 52 Senate seats.
That was quite a turnaround, just because Obama looks to be winning big now does not necissarily equate to the Mid-terms being a continuation of the trend!
341. Didn’t know that, thanks.
Personally, I think that one of Obama’s greatest challenge will be reigning in the extremes of a congress doped up on hope. He’s going to have to cut a lot of spending if he wants to fund those tax cuts.
349. You’re all over the place tonight Paul - which shadowy forces are behind all this, eh? The government? The Daily Mail? The Beeb? A strange alliance of all three?
There’s a much more prosaic explanation of events - the BBC is an out-of-control, self-obsessed organisation which has lost sight of its proper role to such an extent that it sees disgraceful episodes like this as more of an opportunity than a setback.
353. What about the Social Conservitive Democrats - Isn’t there one from Monatan IIRC and maybe Virginia as well?
355. TV channel 4 news is even more lefty than the BBC, and Snow even more in our Great Leaders orifice.
“in reality, any _sensible_ system of national ID card would be fairly stringent about when it was actually required, which might well reduce the number of “we’d better check” type controls, and certainly shouldn’t increase it.”
True; too bad Labour’s Identity Cards Act offers no such restrictions.
358 - As a fellow anti-labour person I can see what is happening but those who rush after anything anti-BBC have missed the full picture.
The BBC pushed the Osborne story relentlessly, then as it could have done the same with Mandelson it helps to promote a non-political story with its own news outlets and the Pavlovian right get suckered in and I doubt many even remember back to Sunday anymore.
Brown and the Mail are, of course, very close and it suits them both to promote this sort of story, hence their involvement. The BBC therefore have to keep going with it, even as it may blow up against them, and there is nobody arguing from the right about the ridiculousness of this becomng news and how it is pushing unhelpful news about the government into the background.
I think the right have been played on this, they wanted and got the reaction they sought.
361. Yes - and all the historical evidence suggests that ID cards tend to get demanded more and more the longer they are around.
Perhaps we’ll all soon be obliged to queue up and produce our ID cards in order to pay for our TV license and ensure that only the correct people receive their entitlement of cultural nourishment via the blessed BBC.
355 - Did you se the eventual interview put on (with Philip Hammond)?
I caught the end of it to see Krishnan Gurumuthi probing with the hard hitting “how many other people has George Osborne solicited donations from?”
Obviously never made it on to the economy.
362. I see, I think…it is indeed a strange alliance of all three. Anyone else in on it? Freemasons? Illuminati?
This sounds crazy to me!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5031835.ece
A 30 minute advert! Maybe a few 5 minute ones but 30 minutes could backfire in the middle of a football game if it is not in fragments!
360. Didn’t Snow used to be a Communist like the esteamed Nick Palmer MP!
362. Nonsense!.
365 - Meanwhile the government gets a breather in the news cycle and Osborne sticks whilst Mandelson doesn’t.
Whatever was done, look at the results and see if it’s something you are happy about.
367. Dont know, but if true, they are still communist’s in their behavour.
368 - You only have to read through the threads in the last few days to see how any reaction against last week and about the economy has been totally diluted.
It isn’t something that these separate organisations consciously did but it’s been an effective way of moving news away from these issues.
369. That may be true, but Osborn was alway’s an accident waiting to happen. He should go!
Politically, the BBC matters more than ZNL imo so damage to the BBC is long-term more useful than damage to ZNL, but regardless of that Sachs is 78 and this whole thing stinks. The BBC is a bloated, out of control monster with no sense of right and wrong.
371. Oh come off it - falling house prices and repossessions have been all over the news today, and even if the odd manufactured story rises to the surface from time to time, the economic bad news can’t be suppressed for more than a fleeting period. It is too up close and personal for that.
I’m quite happy that this BBC story is getting prominence, even if I feel nothing but contempt for the BBC’s motives in pushing it. As far as I can see it advances the case for radical reform of this rotten institution, reform which I increasingly think is not far away.
374. Reform wont happen as long as Politicians, and they are from all Parties support the Licence fee.
359- Martin, do you see any Democratic senators who will be ready to dig in their heels and fight against or even significantly oppose any of Obama’s priorities? Even the more conservative (and this is a relative term) members of the Senate and House Democratic caucuses are not conservatives, unlike the old southern conservative Democrats. Their opposition, or lack thereof, to the most leftward legislation that the U.S. has ever seen will tell you just how conservative they are (or aren’t). I don’t expect Obama to have any real trouble in getting his agenda through Congress, including Tester or Webb (which I believe are the senators you’re referring to).
I have lived in many countries where ID cards are compulsory, and it is no big deal - you stick it in the back of your wallet and only need it to prove who you are when conducting any official business - like opening a bank account, and they will usually accept a driving licence or passport in its place. BUT……….
Labours scheme is massively over the top - biometric scans - national databases - audit trails - this is what I object to as well as the massive cost!
Richard Branson or say Camelot could contract to introduce a genuine ID card with the sole purpose of confirming identity for a fraction of the government scheme!!
377. Branson would claim he could do it but of course pull out if there was any danger he would really be asked to.
376- On that note, my guess is that you’ll see a stunning flood of left-wing “reform” and “change” in the first year of the Obama administration that almost all congressional Democrats will support in lockstep, regardless of how conservative they may portray themselves back home. Then the Democrat “conservatives” will spend 2010 trying to scramble back to the middle by symbolically opposing this or that piece of legislation, but only when his or her vote is not actually needed to pass the bill. They will then boast from the mountaintops back home about that one vote as proof of their independence from the administation and shows that they deserve re-election. But this will matter little; the extent of voter backlash will spell their fates.
379. Yes I think you are right - the mid terms have the potential to be as high impact against the Democrats as the GE is against the GOP!